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Denmark to expose sulphur-cheating ships Shipping companies not complying with fuel sulphur limits will be publicly named and shamed under new Danish government plans. ►► Page 7 Courts require action to clear the air Member states that fail to protect people’s health will – eventually – end up in court, and persistent failure is likely to become very, very costly. ►► Page 14 Europeans expect to cut back on meat New policies, health concerns and inno- vative food businesses can all contribute to reducing the climate footprint of European dinner tables. h ÅKANSSON LARS-ERIK © ►► Page 17 No climate impact from road traffic in 15 years Taxes, regulations, fuel switches, electri- fication and social planning is the recipe if the Nordic-Baltic region is going to abolish GHG emissions from road traffic. ►► Page 20 Below 1.5 – Nordic-Baltic Region can decarbonise by 2030 to Stay Alive Zero carbon emissions by 2030 can be “1.5 to Stay Alive” is the rallying call from the Caribbean achieved in the electricity, heat and indu- region for the global community to take action now in the UN strial sectors without nuclear power and during 2018. A film with that message will be submitted to without CCS, according to new report the Talanoa dialogue by AirClim. from AirClim. ►► Page 21 The UN is conducting a facilitative dia- Talanoa is a traditional word used in Fiji logue which will evaluate and strengthen and across the Pacific for a dialogue which Sustainably feeding the climate action during 2018. The dialogue has the purpose of sharing stories, building Nordic countries is called Talanoa on the initiative of Fiji, empathy and making wise decisions for which held the Presidency of the COP23 the collective good. The intention is that It is possible to feed 37 million in the UN Climate Change Conference. It will countries and non-party stakeholders will Nordic countries on food mostly pro- duced within the region using organic culminate at the upcoming COP24 in be contributing ideas, recommendations practices. Katowicze in December and the aim is and information that can assist the world ►► Page 24 to review the commitments made in the in taking climate action to the next level Paris agreement. Page 4 Editorial A newsletter from the Air Pollution & Climate Most governments and Secretariat, the primary aim of which is to civil society are societies to resist increasing climate change provide information on air pollution and its aware that the national and international is not enough to achieve this under the cur- effects on health and the environment. reduction commitments for greenhouse rent national climate action plans, known Anyone interested in these matters is invited gases made so far are much too weak to as Nationally Determined Contributions to contact the Secretariat. All requests for avoid dangerous climate change, and that (NDCs).” information or material will be dealt with to global decarbonisation is essential by 2050 It is vital that during the Talanoa Dia- the best of our ability. Acid News is available at the latest. The clock is ticking fast 1 (page logue the rich industrialised countries free of charge. 9). But the economic interests of the fossil acknowledge the decision from Paris that In order to fulfil the purpose of Acid News, fuel sector are so strong “this Agreement will we need information from everywhere, so if that over the 30 years “Europe should be implemented to you have read or heard about something that might be of general interest, please write or since the greenhouse reflect equity and the send a copy to: effect was brought to decarbonise principle of common public attention in the but differentiated Air Pollution & Climate Secretariat its economy Första Långgatan 18, 413 28 Göteborg, Brundtland Report, responsibilities and Sweden greenhouse gas emis- by 2030 ” respective capabilities, Tel: +46 31 711 45 15 sions have continued in the light of differ- Fax: +46 31 711 46 20 to rise globally. ent national circumstances”. If developing E-mail: [email protected] Nevertheless, with the support of civil countries are to ramp up their NDCs they Internet: www.airclim.org society, the negotiators of the UN Climate will need strong financial support from Editor: Kajsa Pira Convention have gradually managed to rich industrialised nations. The wealthy Assistant editors: Christer Ågren, Reinhold establish a global framework and agreements nations must also greatly increase their Pape & Stefan Larsson that could avert catastrophic climate change own mitigation ambitions for the pre-2020 on a global level. The Paris Agreement is period, and for 2025 and 2030. TheEU Printed by Trydells Tryckeri, Laholm, Sweden. and all other European countries should ISSN 0281-5087. one such a step forward, but as we all know the commitments to emission reductions lead this task in the Talanoa Dialogue and The Air Pollution and Climate Secretariat made in Paris are not yet adequate to avoid present a vision to considerably raise their The Secretariat has a board consisting of one dangerous climate change. One of the key climate targets for 2020 and 2030. representative from each of the following decisions reached in Paris was therefore to AirClim has published two studies 2,3 this organisations: Friends of the Earth Sweden, review the commitments in light of the month that describe a vision for reaching Nature and Youth Sweden, the Swedish So- latest climate science as soon as possible. zero carbon in eight Nordic and Baltic ciety for Nature Conservation, and the World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF) Sweden. So now, in 2018, two years after the Paris countries by 2030 (page 20-21) and previ- The essential aim of the Secretariat is to conference, the first review is to be held ously released a list of the 10 best climate promote awareness of the problems associ- in the UN. The next review after that will measures for the Baltic region and Russia, ated with air pollution and climate change, start in 2019, when the UN will review the Poland and Germany 4. AirClim has also and thus, in part as a result of public pressure, adequacy of the targets in the UN climate presented a sustainable agriculture vision to bring about the needed reductions in the convention and the 1.5/2°C target of the for the region 5 (page 24). These visions and emissions of air pollutants and greenhouse gases. The aim is to have those emissions Paris Agreement. Another review, known measures could also apply to the whole of eventually brought down to levels that man as the Global Stocktake, will be held in Europe, for new climate targets and the and the environment can tolerate without 2022–2023. development of National Energy and suffering damage. The wish of civil society is that govern- Climate Plans (NECPs). To help achieve In furtherance of these aims, the Secretariat: ments will decide during these three reviews the 1.5°C target, wealthy Europe should 88 Keeps up observation of political trends and scientific developments. to sharpen their national emission reduction decarbonise its economy by 2030 and give 88 Acts as an information centre, primarily for plans so that there is a very good chance poorer developing countries a better chance European environmentalist organisations, that the 1.5°C target from the Paris Agree- of decarbonising by 2040–2050. but also for the media, authorities, and ment can be achieved. The 2018 review, Reinhold Pape researchers. called the Talanoa Facilitative Dialogue, 1 https://www.mcc-berlin.net/en/research/co2- 88 Produces information material. was launched at the COP23 UN Climate budget.html 88 Supports environmentalist bodies in other 2 http://airclim.org/publications/vision-zero-carbon- countries in their work towards common Change Conference in Bonn in November emissions-nordic-baltic-region-about-2030 ends. 2017 and will run throughout 2018. 3 http://airclim.org/publications/what-will-it-take- 88 Participates in the lobbying and campaigning “Talanoa is aiming for higher climate phase-out-greenhouse-gas-emissions-road-traffic- activities of European environmentalist orga- ambition,” the UN says in a statement, nordic-baltic-region nisations concerning European policy relating adding that: “The Paris Agreement’s central 4 http://www.airclim.org/sites/default/files/docu- to air quality and climate change, as well as in ments/APC31-The-10-best-climate-mitigation- meetings of the Convention on Long-range goal is keep the global average temperature measures-in-Northern-Europe.pdf Transboundary Air Pollution and the UN rise to below 2°C and as close as possible to 5 http://www.airclim.org/sites/default/files/docu- Framework Convention on Climate Change. 1.5°C. Current global ambition to reduce ments/future_nordic_diets.pdf greenhouse gas emissions and to prepare

2 ACID NEWS NO. 1, MARCH 2018 IMO moves to ban carriage of high-sulphur marine fuel Implementing the global lower-sulphur fuel requirement will reduce ship emissions related to premature mortality and morbidity by 34 and 54 per cent, respectively.

The decision to introduce a global 0.5 Banning the carriage of per cent cap on the content of sulphur in non-compliant fuel will marine fuel by 2020 was originally agreed make it considerably more by the United Nations International difficult for unscrupulous Maritime Organization (IMO) back in ship operators to ignore 2008. After having carried out a thorough the rule, burn cheaper assessment of whether sufficient compli- non-compliant fuel, and ant fuel oil would be available by 2020, escape serious sanction. the IMO decided in October 2016 by This decision, which must consensus to confirm 1 January 2020 as be confirmed by theIMO the implementation date for the 0.5 per in April, will mean a cent global sulphur cap (see AN 4/16). cleaner environment and It has long been a major concern by many fewer premature deaths groups, including authorities, shipowners from ship air pollution.” and environmentalists, that there is a risk To ensure that fuel that potential cheaters could benefit if the suppliers, carriers and Flickr.com / Michael Coghlan CC By-SA new sulphur requirement is not effectively authorities have the right According to a new study, ship air pollution causes about 400,000 enforced everywhere. tools and guidelines to premature deaths from lung cancer and cardiovascular disease alone. Shortly before a crucial meeting of the comply with the sulphur IMO’s Pollution Prevention and Response regulation, the IMO is also deaths and around 6.4 million childhood sub-committee (PPR) in London in Febru- looking more widely at the implementation asthma cases annually, so “additional reduc- ary, environmental and shipping industry practice. For this purpose, a week-long tions beyond 2020 standards may prove organizations rather surprisingly jointly meeting with special focus on the imple- beneficial”, the authors noted. Moreo- called for an explicit prohibition on the mentation of the sulphur requirements is ver, they concluded that “many control carriage of non-compliant marine fuels scheduled for 9–13 July 2018. technologies for harmful particulates in 2020. According to their joint state- and ozone precursor emissions perform Meanwhile, a new ment, such a ban will help ensure robust, scientific study was better under low-sulphur combustion simplified and consistent enforcement of published in January, providing new es- conditions”, thereby improving the scope the global sulphur cap. timates of the public health and climate for additional emission reductions. On 9 February the PPR agreed to rec- impacts of implementing the global 0.5 Regarding climate forcing, it was es- ommend a ban on ships carrying marine per cent fuel standard. timated that the net reduced cooling fuels that do not comply with the new According to the study, ship air pol- resulting from switching to lower-sulphur global sulphur fuel limit. The ban would lution is responsible for approximately fuel amounts to over three per cent of make it illegal after 2020 for ships to have 400,000 premature deaths from lung total anthropogenic radiative forcing. fuel containing more than 0.5 per cent cancer and cardiovascular disease alone, This underlines the need for shipping to sulphur on board, unless the vessel has a and around 14 million childhood asthma quickly start moving beyond fossil fuels scrubber installed that cleans the emissions. cases annually. The 0.5 per cent sulphur in the sector altogether, thus reducing The PPR concluded that the issue is to cap will reduce the number of deaths emissions of both greenhouse gases and be “considered as an urgent matter to be linked to ship air pollution by around a air pollutants. Christer Ågren finalized as soon as possible”. In practice third and more than halve the number of this probably means that a proposed text ship pollution-related childhood asthma Sources: is to be discussed in April, followed by cases. This would mean 137,000 fewer Press releases by Clean Shipping Coalition and approval and adoption in October 2018. deaths due to air pollution every year, Transport & Environment, 22 January and 9 Feb- ruary 2018. John Maggs, president of the Clean and around eight million fewer cases of Study “Cleaner fuels for ships provide public health Shipping Coalition, said: “This is an childhood asthma. benefits with climate tradeoffs”. By M. Sofiev et al. important development that closes a seri- Despite these reductions, ship air pollu- Published in Nature Communications (January ous loophole in the original agreement. tion will still account for around 250,000 2018). DOI: 10.1038/s41467-017-02774-9.

ACID NEWS NO.1, MARCH 2018 3 Below 1.5 – to Stay Alive Continued from front page

in order to meet the objectives of the feed into the “political phase” of Talanoa h ÅKANSSON LARS-ERIK © Paris Agreement and support the UN taking place at the COP24 in Katowice, Sustainable Development Goals. The Poland in December. Talanoa process involves the sharing To help answer the first question “Where of ideas, skills and experience through are we?” AirClim will submit the film storytelling (see editorial). “1.5 Stay Alive” to the platform. The film The UN Climate Change secretariat describes the urgent situation for coral launched an online platform to support reefs in the Caribbean region. In the the process. The portal aims to facilitate Caribbean waters just south of the United this important international conversation. States of America the world’s second- and Countries will be able to check progress third-largest coral reef ecosystems are very At the beginning of 2018, 5Cs made a and seek to increase global ambition seriously threatened by climate change statement about the situation caused by to meet the goals of the Paris Climate (see map). Millions of tourists visit the climate change in the Caribbean (see box). Change Agreement. Through the portal, all region every year and enjoy the sea and The statement concludes: “The emerging countries and other stakeholders, including its rich biodiversity. But soon climate science message is clear: Urgent global business, investors, cities, regions and civil change could mean the end for the corals, action taken now, and which goes well society, are invited to make submissions as bleaching events occur more and more beyond what has already been committed into the Talanoa Dialogue around three often. Science tells us that many corals to, is needed to delay the onset of more central questions: do not survive at a global temperature adverse Caribbean climate states. This is •• Where are we? increase above 1.5°C and increased ocean what is implied in the region’s stance that •• Where do we want to go? acidification. 1.5°C must be an end-of-century global •• How do we get there? Sea level rise is already affecting many goal. ‘1.5 to Stay Alive’, the central mes- coastal zones, including the south coast sage anchoring the Caribbean’s position, Online submissions will be collated twice of the United States. is more than a just a catchy slogan. It is a – after 2 April 2018, and 29 October 2018. The Caribbean Community Climate rallying call for the global community to The first set of submissions will inform a Change Centre (5Cs) is a body of the take action now, from those most vulner- dialogue session in the May inter-sessional Caribbean Community (Caricom) with 18 able to climate change.” in Bonn that aims to answer the three member states from the Caribbean region, AirClim’s submission of the film is a questions and will be summarised in a is helping to coordinate the work on climate way to affirm the “1.5 – to Stay Alive” synthesis report. This report will later change issues for the Caricom countries. call from the Caribbean countries (see box). It is clear from the experiences of climate change in the Caribbean that The film “1.5-Stay Alive” the zone of “dangerous climate change” AirClim initiated and supported the has already been entered. Every ton of low-budget film, which was produced greenhouse gases emitted from now on in 2013–2014 and released in April is contributing to further dangerous cli- 2015 to campaign for a 1.5°C target in mate change. The UN Talanoa Dialogue the UN. It won first prize at the world’s must implement the 1.5°C target from oldest environmental film festival in One of the key speakers in the film is the Paris Agreement by strengthening Barcelona in late 2016, in the category the meteorologist and international climate action plans for 2020, 2025 and of short documentaries up to one hour. liaison officer Carlos Fuller, from the The 1.5 Stay Alive film is about climate 2030 right now. Caribbean Community Climate Change change in the Caribbean region and ex- Reinhold Pape Centre (5Cs) in Belize, who has for the plains why there is a need to stay below last two years been chair of the scien- Link to APC report 37 The Greenhouse Effect, a 1.5°C global temperature increase to tific and technological body of the UN Global Warming and Implications for Coral Reefs avoid dangerous climate change and Climate Convention. and Factsheet on Ecological effects of ocean protect vulnerable people. The film acidification In the film, local people also speak lets experts and musicians from the about the loss of their homeland on Link to 5 Cs: http://www.caribbeanclimate.bz/ Caribbean region tell their own story the US coast of the Mexican Gulf in and perform music about the threat of Link to 1.5 Reader: http://climatenetwork.org/sites/ Louisiana, and about already having to climate change to local people and the default/files/can_reader_review_2013-2015.pdf abandon their communities. environment in the region, including Link to UNFCCC: https://cop23.unfccc.int/news/ more frequent and violent tropical Link to AirClim film 1.5 Stay Alive: https://www.youtube. un-opens-talanoa-dialogue-portal-aiming-for- com/embed/vH1SwOLFH_w storms, sea level rise and the death of higher-climate-ambition coral reefs.

4 ACID NEWS NO. 1, MARCH 2018 Statement by the Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre (5Cs) “Ongoing analysis of the Caribbean’s his- bean, and the change to come may likely the 1°C already experienced were limi- torical climate data is painting a picture prove ‘too much’. It stands to reason ted to only a further half a degree, there of what an approximate 1°C of global then, that a stringent global target that would still be consequences for the warming since preindustrial times has limits further warming to levels margi- Caribbean region. meant for the region. One degree has nally higher than already experienced The most noticeable differences will contributed to: is more than just a logical option. These be related to mean temperature and 88 a warming of both air and ocean surface impacts will be more severe at higher temperature extremes. When compa- temperatures in the Caribbean global warming targets (e.g. 2°C), but red to the climate of the present, the 88 an increase in the number of very hot days still very challenging even if warming is region will be significantly warmer, with and nights limited to 1.5°C. Even though the Carib- many more very hot days in any given 88 longer and more frequent periods of bean has argued for 1.5°C as the global year, and longer spells of hot and dry droughts limit for further warming, the emerging conditions. Although there may also be 88 an increase in very heavy rainfall events 88 higher sea levels message from science is that it does not more instances of moderate to extreme 88 more intense hurricanes with stronger represent a ‘safe’ climate for the region. droughts, an increase in the intensity of winds and lots more rain. This level may only offer a less risky some rain events may partially offset the climate state than occurs at even higher lack of rainfall during some times of the Since the region is very sensitive to cli- global warming levels. year and for some parts of the region. mate variations, many things are impac- The emerging science message is The picture is, however, one of gene- ted. These include agriculture and food clear: Urgent global action taken now, rally harsher climatic conditions in the production, population health, marine and which goes well beyond what has Caribbean than present when the mean and terrestrial ecosystems, tourism, fresh already been committed to, is needed global surface temperature is 1.5°C water systems, energy systems, liveli- to delay the onset of more adverse above pre-industrial levels. hoods, worker and student productivity, Caribbean climate states. This is what is The picture only gets worse when coastal infrastructure and ultimately the implied in the region’s stance that 1.5°C we project what the Caribbean could economies of Caribbean countries. With must be an end-of century global goal. experience in a world that is 2°C warmer. further increasing temperatures the Ca- “1.5 to Stay Alive”, the central message Just another half degree of global war- ribbean will be significantly warmer and anchoring the Caribbean’s position, is ming will result in almost year-round hot drier (especially during times of the year more than a just a catchy slogan. It is a conditions, the transition to a mean drier it expects to get rain), face much higher rallying call for the global community Caribbean compared to the present, and sea levels, and experience more intense to take action now, from those most an increase in the frequency of extreme hurricanes of the likes of Irma and Maria vulnerable to climate change. drought occurrences. in 2017. The science being undertaken in the On December 21, 2015 at the 21st By providing these comparative Caribbean is also offering a clearer pic- Session of the Conference of the Parties pictures, the science is making a strong ture of the region in a world that is 1.5°C to the United Nations Framework case that the climate change already warmer. Even if global warming beyond Convention on Climate Change, 195 experienced is a challenge for the Carib- nations agreed to hold ‘the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and [to pursue] efforts to limit the temperature in- crease to 1.5°C’ (the Paris Agreement). The Caribbean Community (CA- RICOM) in alliance with other small island developing states galvanized the world around the idea of a 1.5°C target.”

Map of coral reefs in the Caribbean. Source: World Resource Institute. http://www.wri.org/sites/default/files/map_rrcaribe_01_region_300dpi.jpg

ACID NEWS NO.1, MARCH 2018 5 Evolution of ship emissions in China Cruise ships pollute Ship emissions contribute significantly to air pollution and pose health risks to residents of coastal areas in China. A new Copenhagen’s summer air study has estimated ship emissions in Measurements of ultrafine particles from that are unable to (or do not) connect China from 2004 to 2013 and also made cruise ships in the Danish port of Copen- to shore power. projections up to 2040 under different hagen have shown that emissions from •• Gradually expand the number of shore control scenarios. cruise ships contribute significantly to power supply facilities and exclude cruise For the area within 200 nautical miles air pollution in the port area and in the ships from entering the port three years of the Chinese coast, emissions of SO2, connected city areas during periods of after installing shore power supplies at NOx, CO, PM10, PM2.5, and hydrocar- onshore wind. Throughout May to Sep- all cruise berths; unless the cruise ships bons in 2013 were estimated to amount tember, there are on average two cruise run on gas or have an effective flue gas respectively to 1010, 1443, 118, 107, 87 ships in the port every day, and onshore cleaning system installed. and 67 kilotonnes per year. Ship emissions winds occur 25–30 per cent of the time. •• Coordinate similar actions with the have doubled over the last ten years, and The Danish Ecological Council con- region’s other cruise ports and port now contribute around 10 per cent of cludes that if no action is taken, increasing authorities. SO2 NO the total and x emissions in the cruise tourism risks exposing even more The report: “Air pollution with ultrafine particles coastal provinces of the country. people to harmful air pollution, and it from cruise ships in Copenhagen, Denmark” (No- Ship emissions in ports accounted therefore recommends to the municipality vember 2017). Published by the Danish Ecological Council. Link: www.ecocouncil.dk for about one quarter of the of Copenhagen and the port of Copenhagen total emissions within the that they should cooperate to: 200-nautical-mile zone, and •• Build shore power supply facilities at World’s biggest electric nearly 80 per cent of the emis- the most attractive cruise berths. cargo ship sions were concentrated to the top •• Charge higher port fees to cruise ships ten busiest ports of China. China has launched its first all-electric The authors concluded that theIMO ’s cargo ship. The 230-foot-long ship can carry 0.5-per-cent global sulphur cap would over 2,000 tons of goods. It has a battery reduce ship SO2 emissions by 80 per cent capacity of 2,400 kilowatt hours – enough from 2020, but that a similar reduction in lithium batteries to power 40 cars. After NOx emissions would require significant two hours of charging, the ship can run technological change and likely take for 50 miles. As it is powered purely by several decades. electricity, it has zero emissions of exhaust The article: “Decadal evolution of ship emissions gas pollutants. The irony, however, is that in China from 2004 to 2013 by using an integrated the ship is being used for hauling coal AIS-based approach and projection to 2040” (2017). on the inland section of the Pearl River. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions: Source: Newsweek, 6 December 2017. 1-36. DOI:10.5194/acp-2017-743. Link: http://pure. iiasa.ac.at/14939/ World’s first electric container barges The world’s first electric container barges diesel-powered trucks for moving freight. barges are being developed by Port Liner, will soon sail from European ports ac- Dubbed the “Tesla of the canals”, their which believes it could produce about 500 cording to the Guardian. electric motors will be driven by 20-foot barges a year to revolutionise the freight The world’s first fully electric, emission- batteries, charged on shore by the carbon- industry, although the electric motors free and potentially crewless container free energy provider Eneco. and batteries could also be retrofitted barges are to operate from the ports of The barges are designed to operate with- into older boats. The barges would be the Antwerp, Amsterdam, and Rotterdam out any crew, although the vessels will be first in the world to sail on carbon-neutral from summer 2018. The vessels, designed manned in their first period of operation batteries and only the low bridges in the to fit beneath bridges as they transport as new infrastructure is erected around low countries prevent them from being their goods around the inland water- some of the busiest inland waterways loaded with more goods. ways of Belgium and the Netherlands, in Europe. About 23,000 trucks, mainly Source: https://www.theguardian.com/environ- ment/2018/jan/24/worlds-first-electric-container- are expected to vastly reduce the use of running on diesel, are expected to be barges-to-sail-from-european-ports-this-summer removed from the roads as a result. The

6 ACID NEWS NO. 1, MARCH 2018

© ART OWL / Shutterstock.com Denmark to expose sulphur-cheating ships Shipping companies not complying with fuel sulphur limits will be publicly named and shamed under new Danish government plans.

Danish environment and food minister them have paid a fine of between 30,000 and Sweden, a full three years after the entry Esben Lunde Larsen has asked the Danish 375,000 Danish kroner (€4,000–50,000). into force of the stricter sulphur standards. Environmental Protection Agency to pre- Monitoring of ships’ sulphur emissions Even though the Swedish authorities pare a bill to make it possible to publish indicates that the majority of ships, between have over the last few years checked more the names of those carriers which violate 92 and 97 per cent, follow the rules, and than 500 ships in Swedish ports, several the sulphur regulation. monitoring of air quality shows that since of which have registered excessive sulphur The sea areas surrounding Denmark – this law was introduced, the amount of levels, no charges have been filed. the North Sea and the Baltic Sea – are sulphur pollution in the air in Demark But this will soon change, according to designated sulphur emission control areas has more than halved. Swedish environment minister Karolina (SECAs) in which ship fuel sulphur require- Lunde Larsen said: “It is gratifying Skog, Starting this spring, there will be ments were strengthened to a maximum that the stricter sulphur requirements a financial price to pay for violating the of 0.1 per cent as from 2015. have resulted in cleaner air, and this is sulphur regulation in Swedish waters, “The limits on sulphur content in fuel because most ships actually comply with said Karolina Skog in an interview with must be maintained by everyone. It is the rules. Therefore, it must be possible to ShippingWatch in December. A proposed good for the environment and for people’s publish the names of the offending ship- new legislation introducing administrative health, and it creates fair competition ping companies, so that as a customer it is sanctions instead of relying on criminal within shipping. It is important to send a possible to opt out of shipping companies law, represents the key step. strong signal to those who violate the law, that do not comply with the rules. It can Christer Ågren that sulphur cheating is not acceptable,” hopefully have a deterrent effect on the Sources: said Lunde Larsen. few shipping companies that still violate Since 2015, the Danish EPA has reported the rules.” Press release by the Danish Ministry of Environ- ment, 26 January 2018 (in Danish). 21 companies to the police for the violation While ships using illegal fuel risk be- of the sulphur requirements, and so far, ing fined in several northern European ShippingWatch, 19 December 2017. seven of these have been fined. Three of countries, this has not been the case in

Danish coast card com at work. . / S hutterstock / oefoed K © A smus ©

ACID NEWS NO.1, MARCH 2018 7 Black carbon emissions from global shipping New studies show how much ships contribute to emissions of soot particles and the measures available to cut those emissions. A new report by the International Council for only 1 per cent of the number of ships Table: Summary of black carbon abatement on Clean Transportation (ICCT) presents and less than 1 per cent of dwt. Moreover, technologies an updated global inventory of black car- cruise ships had the highest emissions per Reduction measure/strategy Reduction bon emissions from ships. It also contains ship and per unit of fuel consumption. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) 93.5% an analysis of the effectiveness of several The ICCT recommends several ways DPF – low-sulphur fuel >99% emission control measures, including to reduce black carbon emissions from DPF – high-sulphur fuel 85% switching to cleaner-burning fuels and ships, including: Water-in-fuel emulsion (WiFE) 70% using diesel particulate filters DPF( s). •• prohibiting the use of residual fuels; Scrubbers – high sulphur fuel 45% It was estimated that in 2015, ships •• installing diesel particulate filters (DPF); Scrubbers – low sulphur fuel 37.5% emitted about 67,000 tonnes of black •• establishing new Emission Control Switch HFO to distillate fuel 33% carbon, equivalent to 0.7–1.1 per cent of Areas (ECAs); total global anthropogenic black carbon •• establishing a black carbon emission Slow steaming with de-rating 15% Biodiesel – 100% 50–75% emissions. After carbon dioxide (CO2), standard for ships; black carbon contributes most to the •• plugging into shore power at port; and, Biodiesel blend – 20% 10–30% climate impacts of shipping, represent- •• including black carbon in the ship- Methanol – DME 97% ing 7 per cent of total shipping CO2-eq ping sector’s greenhouse gas emissions Nuclear 95% emissions on a 100-year timescale and reduction strategy. Slide valves 10–50% 21 per cent of CO2-eq emissions on a The International Maritime Organiza- Electrostatic precipitators 10–90% 20-year time scale. tion (IMO) decided back in 2010 that Selective catalytic reduction (SCR) 0–30% Looking at the different ship types, ships’ emissions of black carbon and it was found that container ships, bulk other particulate matter affecting the 33 per cent, but that using low-sulphur carriers, and oil tankers together were Arctic region needed to be addressed as fuel blends will likely not lead to black responsible for 60 per cent of the emis- an integral part of the IMO’s work on carbon reductions. DPFs show high black sions, while accounting for 30 per cent prevention of air pollution from ships and carbon removal rates for distillate fuel, of the ships in the global fleet and 81 per combatting climate change. Following and as DPF technology for higher sulphur cent of its deadweight tonnage (dwt). this decision, some years were spent on fuels advances it is expected that removal Container ships alone accounted for 26 discussing the matter, resulting among efficiencies will approach the upper limit per cent of the emissions while making other things in an agreed definition of of that reported for distillate fuels, i.e. up only 7 per cent of ships and 14 per black carbon in 2015; work to identify over 99 per cent. cent of dwt in the global fleet. appropriate methods for measurement Both reports were submitted to and Cruise ships were found to be respon- of black carbon; and investigation of discussed at the IMO’s subcommittee on sible for disproportionately large amounts emission control measures. Pollution Prevention and Response (PPR) of black carbon, producing 6 per cent of A first study on emission control meas- that met in February, and the issue is also total ships’ emissions despite accounting ures for black carbon was produced in 2012, likely to be brought up at the forthcoming and an update of that study was recently meeting of the IMO’s Marine Environment published and submitted by Canada to Protection Committee in April. the IMO. The summary results of this Christer Ågren update are shown in the Table. Sources: Compared to the 2012 data, abatement potentials were changed for three options: The ICCT report “Black Carbon emissions and fuel use in global shipping 2015” is available at: diesel particulate filters, scrubbers, and https://www.theicct.org/publications/black-carbon- switching from heavy fuel oil (HFO) to emissions-global-shipping-2015 distillate fuel. IMO document PPR 5/INF.7, 29 November 2017 According to the update, new studies “An update to the investigation of appropriate provide more certainty that a switch control measures (abatement technologies) to from residual fuel to distillate fuel re- reduce Black Carbon emissions from international duces black carbon emissions by at least shipping”, submitted by Canada.

8 ACID NEWS NO. 1, MARCH 2018 There are signs of relief, or at least a halt to the increase in ambient air pollution levels. Remaining carbon budget – that’s com . how fast the carbon clock is ticking The clock is ticking. The carbon clock of the Mercator Research

V3112 / S hutterstock V3112 Institute on Global Commons ony

© T © and Climate Change (MCC) shows just how little time is left for political decision-makers. Air pollution in China Visitors to the MCC website A new study provides an overview and can find out how much time analysis of key scientific data regarding is left to implement effective air pollution in China and helps under- action based on various policy stand how policymakers, media and the objectives and scientific as- Less than 18 years left. population in China make sense of and sumptions. The MCC carbon clock dem- deal with air pollution. The major trends will be updated after the release of the onstrates just how much carbon can be regarding air pollution in China are sum- IPCC’s Special Report on 1.5 Degrees. This released into the atmosphere if global marised, including its main sources and will then be considered here accordingly. warming is to be limited to 1.5°C, or composition, levels of population exposure The calculation is based on the assump- 2°C with high probability. By select- across the country, attributable mortality, tion that annual emissions remain at the ing a choice of temperature targets and and mitigation efforts. level of 2014; while between 2000 and estimates, you can see how much time While the situation remains dire in 2010, an annual growth of greenhouse remains in each scenario. many regions, particularly the northeast, gas emissions of 2.2% has been observed. Disclaimer: The numbers are based on the authors conclude that there are signs https://www.mcc-berlin.net/en/research/co2-budget. of relief, or at least a halt to the increase in the latest Assessment Report (AR5) of the html ambient air pollution levels. But unequal IPCC. It is very likely that these numbers levels of exposure remain, and harmful Electric cars cheaper than combustion cars levels of air pollution in cities will un- doubtedly remain high for a long time In countries such as the UK, USA, Japan purchases of electric vehicles, but within a to come. The rural population residing in and China, electric vehicles are already a few years electric vehicles will be cheaper areas close to industry and polluted cities cheaper alternative than internal combus- even without these subsidies, forecast the and still depending on solid household tion vehicles when you look at the total researchers. Because subsidies for hybrid fuels will likely be the worst off when costs of buying fuel, insurance and vehicles are often lower, these vehicles are it comes to air pollution exposure. maintenance over four usually more expensive than fully electric “Introduction: Air Pollution in China” years. At present this and diesel vehicles. The new study is (December 2017). By K. Aunan, M. is partially due to published in the journal Applied Energy. Halskov Hansen and S. Wang. https:// the fact that many Link:https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/ pii/S030626191731526X?via%3Dihub%E2%80%99 doi.org/10.1017/S0305741017001369 countries subsidise Flickr.com / Andrew Bone cc BY Emissions from residential wood combustion A Nordic research project has made emis- stoves, and an older type of iron stove, combustion conditions, such sion measurements on residential wood compared to the modern wood stoves. as part-load combustion and burning appliances, boilers and stoves, When comparing currently used na- burning of moist fuel. representative for the Nordic countries. tional emission factors in the Nordic The report: “Emission factors for It was found that the older technologies countries with those developed from the SLCP emissions from residen- generally exhibited higher emission levels project’s measurement programme, large tial wood combustion in the Nordic countries” (January than more modern types of equipment. differences were sometimes found, both 2018). By K. Kindbom et. For example, the traditional log-burning between countries and in relation to the al. Published by the Nordic wood boilers had emission levels that were measurement results. Council of Ministers. Link: http:// around 5–10 times higher (depending on The project investigated emission factors norden.diva-portal.org/smash/ record.jsf?pid=diva2%3A117467 pollutant) than for modern log-burning for the pollutants PM2.5, elemental carbon 0&dswid=9630 wood boilers or pellet boilers. In the case (EC), organic carbon (OC), methane (CH4), of stoves the difference was not as large, NMVOCs and carbon monoxide (CO) from with up to two times higher emission levels residential wood combustion, including from the traditional tiled and masonry ratios for increased emissions under poor

Flickr.com / Clive Hurst cc By-NC ACID NEWS NO.1, MARCH 2018 9 Development of Kyoto GHG emissions in Europe 1990 to 2015 Greenhouse gas emissions in Europe are falling rapidly in some countries and not at all in others. The great variation geographically and over time show that much more can be done.

“There is a crack in everything, that’s how but three are among the most important. From 1990 to 2015 very little was done the light gets in,” sang Leonard Cohen. The first is a result of the collapse of in- about CO2. The EU-15 nations, which Those words apply to many things, in- dustry in the Eastern European countries, negotiated the Kyoto treaty in 1997, cluding data on greenhouse gases supplied giving a decrease of roughly 40 percent. actually increased their emissions. This by the Climate Convention. The overall The second is from non-CO2 greenhouse included Germany, which did cut its emis- trend is that emissions are dropping, gases in all countries due mainly to fac- sions, but mainly due to the reunification though not very fast and not very much. tors other than climate policy. These process that deleted most of East German If you zoom in you will find that emis- were also low-hanging fruit. Methane industry. Sweden, Denmark and the UK sions vary widely between nations and from landfills has been cut because it showed some modest improvements, but over time. Some countries have increased is a fire hazard and old landfills were a that was it. emissions considerably over many years. general nuisance. Modernization of the In the next ten years, 2005–15, the pic- Some have not done a thing. Some have aluminium industry, long overdue, has ture is different. TheEU -15 cut their CO2 cut their emissions steadily over a long led to a dramatic decrease in PFCs. The emissions by 20 per cent. Some of the cuts period, while still others have cut emis- phasing out of ozone-depleting CFCs are too easy to explain: in Greece, Spain sions dramatically in some years. (not in the Kyoto Protocol) first led to an and Portugal the economies imploded In a recent published briefing1 we increase in the substitute HFCs (a Kyoto after the 2008 financial crisis. But that present emissions data for European na- gas), then to a decrease in HFCs, within does not really explain the following cuts: tions in 1990, which is the base year for the same legal structure. Some of the Belgium -17 % the Climate Convention and the Kyoto methane and N2O cuts were the result of Denmark -31 % Protocol, and forms the Paris Agreement modernization (shrinking) of agriculture Finland -22 % baseline for many countries. Data is also and a small number of other industries. presented for the two latest years avail- The third is from real climate policy France -15 % able, 2014 and 2015. Figures are given and took place after 2005, in some na- Germany -9 % for greenhouse gases as a whole, and for tions. CO2 is by far the most important Sweden -20 % each of the six gases separately, provided greenhouse gas, and has been in political UK -26 % by the UNFCC. focus since the Brundtland UN report in There are many kinds of emission cuts in 1987, which started the IPCC and the Germany is still not very impressive, but the period 1990–2015, and many causes, 1992 Climate Convention. during this time it shut down nine nuclear

10 ACID NEWS NO. 1, MARCH 2018 Flickr.com / Bill Dickinson cc BY

Table: Greenhouse gas emissions, without LULUCF, in kilotons CO2 equivalent, for six Kyoto gases in Europe 1990-2015

Party 1990 2005 2014 2015 2015/1990 2015/2014 change % change % Austria 78,805 92,642 76,381 78,851 0.1 3.2 Belarus 136,915 88,259 93,661 89,608 -34.6 -4.3 Belgium 146,294 145,096 114,079 117,443 -19.7 2.9 Bulgaria 103,654 63,690 57,505 61,483 -40.7 6.9 Croatia 31,154 29,312 23,049 23,502 -24.6 2.0 Cyprus 5,622 9,306 8,432 8,467 50.6 0.4 Czech Republic 195,827 146,530 125,839 127,127 -35.1 1.0 Denmark 70,493 67,136 51,801 49,321 -30.0 -4.8 Estonia 40,403 19,157 21,081 18,040 -55.3 -14.4 European Union 5,642,685 5,211,180 4,284,831 4,307,968 -23.7 0.5 Finland 71,125 69,493 59,072 55,507 -22.0 -6.0 France 550,068 557,931 460,077 463,650 -15.7 0.8 Germany 1,250,915 991,933 904,262 901,932 -27.9 -0.3 Greece 103,081 136,259 99,353 95,715 -7.1 -3.7 Hungary 93,896 75,842 57,937 61,171 -34.9 5.6 power stations and greatly increased its Iceland 3,556 3,854 4,472 4,557 28.2 1.9 electricity exports. This provides at least Ireland 56,103 69,982 57,758 59,878 6.7 3.7 some excuse. The Netherlands has no Italy 519,917 579,449 423,324 433,025 -16.7 2.3 such excuse. Its emissions in 2015 were Latvia 26,141 11,291 11,190 11,303 -56.8 1.0 seven percent below those of 2005, but Liechtenstein 229 266 202 199 -13.0 -1.2 still above the 1990 level. Norway has Lithuania 48,041 23,068 19,869 20,096 -58.2 1.1 no excuse for increasing its emissions Luxembourg 12,730 12,961 10,756 10 269 -19.3 -4.5 between 2005 and 2015. Malta 2,382 3,019 2,930 2,227 -6.5 -24.0 As for the level of CO2 emissions, no European country is anywhere near a Monaco 99 98 80 82 -17.7 2.4 sustainable level, which is somewhere Netherlands 220,751 214,100 187,373 195 039 -11.6 4.1 below two tons per capita. Per capita Norway 51,729 55,106 53,331 53,908 4.2 1.1 emissions differed from less than 5 tons Poland 467,881 398,943 382,969 385,843 -17.5 0.8 in some countries to more than 10 in Portugal 59,403 86,134 64,196 68,741 15.7 7.1 others. It is hard to discern any pattern. Romania 246,272 146,454 115,413 116,427 -52.7 0.9 Do rich countries emit more? Sweden Russian Fed. 3,767,792 2,499,755 2,645,819 2 651 212 -29.6 0.2 and Switzerland are much richer, per Slovakia 74,460 51,396 40,678 41,269 -44.6 1.5 capita, than Russia, but Russia emits far Slovenia 18,594 20,498 16,610 16,831 -9.5 1.3 more. Does geography matter much? No, Spain 287,828 439,556 324,215 335,662 16.6 3.5 Norway and Iceland have the most per Sweden 71,637 66,855 53,836 53,690 -25. -0.3 capita hydro, but both emit more than Switzerland 53,357 54,856 48,620 48 038 -10.0 -1.2 Denmark, which has no hydro. The big difference is in politics. Turkey 213,972 337,153 455,615 475,056 122.0 4.3 This becomes very clear if one looks at Ukraine 962,502 450,229 368,506 323,365 -66.4 -12.2 the flip side of climate policy, especially United Kingdom 796,816 692,942 526,370 506,765 -36.4 -3.7 CO2 policy, i.e. efforts for wind and solar. Sum All Europe 10,840,444 8,710,550 7,966,663 7,965,299 -26.5 -0.0 In the case of wind power, Denmark got 2496 kWh, while Russia had 1 (one) and the same amount of solar power. Sweden pecially for those in the bottom league Slovakia none at all. Their climates are not gets about as much sunshine as Denmark, for renewables and in the top league for so different, but obviously the political but Denmark produced 10 times as much emissions. The differences carry a message. climate for wind power differs greatly. solar energy. All these differences are the There is a crack, that’s how the light The solar leader in 2015 was Germany result of policies such as subsidies and gets in. Fredrik Lundberg with 469 kWh/capita. Neighbouring net metering. Poland had only 1 and Russia 0. South of These figures demonstrate a huge amount 1 Climate forcers: development of Kyoto greenhouse Poland is the Czech Republic, which had of sloppy climate policy. But it is also easy gas emissions in Europe 1990 to 2015. http://airclim. org/publications/climate-forcers-development- 210 kWh/capita. France and Denmark to see that the potential for improvement kyoto-greenhouse-gas-emissions-europe-1990-2015 may differ in insolation, but they produce is very big in most, or all, countries. Es-

ACID NEWS NO.1, MARCH 2018 11 Black carbon has decreased by 40 per cent in the EU since 1990. Climate forcers that increase or decrease warming

BY-NC The net effect of climate forcers not covered by the Kyoto Protocol is global cc cooling. Emissions of those climate forcers decreased between 1990 and 2015 in Europe.

Outside the six mean span

G ottsabend greenhouse gases from the Kyoto Protocol, there are other an- Well-mixed GHGs (~Kyoto gases) +2.83 +2.54 to +3.12

/ B renda / thropogenic climate forcers, which either Tropospheric ozone +0.4 +0.20 to +0.60 com . tend to increase warming or decrease it, Stratospheric ozone -0.05 -0.15 to +0.05

F lickr in a complex manner (see graph: compo- Stratospheric water vapour from methane +0.07 +0.02-+0.12 nents of radiative forcing). For example: Aerosol-radiation interactions -0.35 -0.85 to +0.15 contrails reflect heat back to the Earth Aerosol-cloud interactions ne at night and then have a warming effect, Surface albedo (land use) -0.15 -0.25 to -0.05 but they also reflect some sunshine back Surface albedo (black carbon on snow, ice) +0.04 +0.02 to +0.09 into space during the day, and then have a cooling effect. Contrails +0.01 +0.005 to +0.03 The IPCC’s fifth assessment report Total anthropogenic (effective radiation forcing) +2.3 1.1 to 3.3 sums up estimates for some such forc- Source: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment ers, in mean watts per m2 for the years Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, chapter 8, p 696 Note: The total anthropogenic figure from the IPCC does not include all climate forcers, so the range is still larger than 1750–2011. + means warming, - cooling. 1.1–3.3 The uncertainties are considerable (see table and figure). 65 percent in the Netherlands, and many when on snow, and a cooling effect when As can be seen, the net effect of the Eastern European countries also had large it screens out the sunshine. It decreased non-Kyoto climate forcers is cooling. decreases. The decrease was however only by 40 percent in the EU-28, with larger This is not very comforting, as efforts to 4 percent in Germany. Ireland, Austria decreases in Germany, the Netherlands, cut CO2 and other Kyoto gases will on and Spain all showed increases. and big increases in many Eastern Eu- average also cut other cooling forcers. Black carbon has a warming effect ropean countries. There are data for some such Carbon monoxide has a forcers in the European Un- warming effect. It decreased ion emission inventory report by 68 percent in the EU-28. 1990–2015 under the UNECE France, Germany and Poland Convention on Long-range were the biggest emitters in Transboundary Air Pollution 2015. (LRTAP) , from 1990 to 2015: Other climate forcers are NOx, which has both warming organic carbon, mineral dust, and cooling effects, decreased by aerosols in clouds, contrails 56 percent in the EU-28. from aeroplanes, and land use Non-methane volatile organic change of albedo from darker compounds, which have a warm- to lighter or vice versa, and ing effect, have decreased by 61 changes in solar radiation, percent in the EU-28 and in but data are hard to find and almost all countries, except Po- attribute. land where they have increased. SO2 has a cooling effect and Fredrik Lundberg has decreased by 89 percent in More information can be found in the EU-28. Briefing: Climate forcers which in- Ammonia, NH3, which has a crease or decrease warming and cooling effect, decreased by 23 emissions in Europe 1990–2015 percent in the EU-28 and by http://airclim.org/sites/default/files/ documents/briefing-12-4.pdf Figure. Components of radioactive forcings IPCC 5AR WG 1

12 ACID NEWS NO. 1, MARCH 2018 Climate change and air pollution top Towards a pollution- environmental concerns in EU free planet In early December, world governments EU citizens consider climate change as September–October 2017. It follows committed to a pollution-free planet at one of the most important environmental three previous surveys on the environ- the third United Nations Environment issues, closely followed by air pollution, ment carried out in 2007, 2011 and 2014. Assembly (UNEA-3) in Nairobi, Kenya, according to the results of a new Euro- Source: European Commission news release with resolutions and pledges promising barometer survey. 18 December 2017. The survey, and national to improve the lives of billions across the Around half of the respondents think factsheets in all languages can be found here: http://ec.europa.eu/commfrontoffice/publicopinion/ globe by cleaning up our air, land and water. air quality has deteriorated in the last index.cfm/Survey/getSurveyDetail/instruments/ A new resolution on preventing and ten years, and stricter pollution controls SPECIAL/surveyKy/2156 reducing air pollution to improve air quality on industrial and energy production globally recognises that air pollution is activities are considered to be the most “the single greatest environmental risk to effective way to tackle problems of air health”, linked to an estimated 6.5 million quality. Nearly half think that the issue premature deaths across the world, and of air pollution can best be addressed at says that “in the absence of aggressive the EU level, while a third think that it is intervention, the number of premature better addressed at the national level and deaths due to ambient air pollution are 14 per cent favour action at the regional estimated to be on track to increase by or local level. more than 50% by 2050”. It urges countries The latest Special Eurobarometer to take action across sectors to reduce all survey on “Attitudes of European citizens forms of air pollution. towards the environment” was carried Source: United Nations Environment, 6 Decem- out in the 28 EU member states in © Arthimedes / Shutterstock.com ber 2017. The resolutions: https://papersmart.unon.org/ Covered in wood smoke resolution/index A new study has investigated the health plants amounting to 137,000 euros per Low levels of PM linked impacts and costs of using biomass for year on average for every megawatt of power and heat production, concluding electrical capacity installed. with premature death that tens of thousands of EU citizens are Evidence of the health impact of air Short-term exposures to tiny particles dying prematurely every year as a result pollution from the use of biomass in (PM2.5) and ozone — even at levels well of exposure to air pollution from burn- small-scale domestic heating in the EU below current United States national safety ing solid biomass. Other health impacts was also reviewed. According to one standards — were linked to higher risk of include cancers, cardiac and respiratory study, exposure to smoke from domestic premature death among the elderly in the disease, asthma attacks and working days biomass burning led to 40,000 deaths US, according to a new study from Harvard lost due to ill health. across the EU in 2014. In addition to these T.H. Chan School of Public Health. The One focus was on 27 biomass burning premature deaths, there were more than risk was even higher among elderly who power plants in the EU, ten of which were 130,000 cases of bronchitis, more than were low-income, female, or black. former coal power stations converted to 20,000 respiratory and cardiac hospital “This is the most comprehensive study run on biomass or to be co-fired with a admissions, a million asthma symptom of short-term exposure to pollution and mixture of biomass and coal. The former days for children aged 5–19, 43 million mortality to date,” said Francesca Dominici, coal plants accounted for the bulk of the restricted activity days and a senior author of the study. “We found negative health impacts, due for example 10 million working days that the mortality rate increases almost to their much greater size and higher levels lost. All because of ex- linearly as air pollution increases. Any of sulphur dioxide emissions, which were posure to fine particles level of air pollution, no matter how low, largely linked to continued coal burning from domestic biomass is harmful to human health.” at co-fired sites. More than 1300 people emissions. The study “Association of Short-Term are dying prematurely each year as a result Exposure to Air Pollution with Mor- The report “Covered in smoke – of exposure to air pollution from the 27 tality in Older Adults” (December Why burning wood threatens facilities considered. 2017). Published in the Journal of the health of Europeans” the American Medical Association Expressed in financial terms, the health (January 2018), by M. Hol- (JAMA): https://www.hsph.harvard. costs linked to biomass burning for power land. Published by FERN. edu/news/press-releases/air-pollu- generation run into billions of euros each Link: http://www.fern. tion-premature-death-u-s-seniors/ year, with health costs associated with org/report/biomas- emissions from former coal and co-fired sandhealth

ACID NEWS NO.1, MARCH 2018 13

© spaxiax / Shutterstock.com © Alexander Kirch / Shutterstock.com

Courts require action to clear the air Member states that fail to protect people’s health will – eventually – end up in court, and persistent failure is likely to become very, very costly.

Binding air quality standards that are 2016. One of the main causes of air pol- Several other countries are now also fac- set to protect peoples’ health – most lution in Poland is the burning of coal ing court action. The Czech Republic, of which were agreed and adopted by for heating and electricity production. Germany, Spain, France, Italy, Hungary, EU member countries nearly 20 years ClientEarth lawyer Agnieszka Warso- Romania, Slovakia and the United King- ago – are frequently being exceeded. Buchanan said that the Polish authorities dom could all be sent to court next month. The Commission is currently pursuing have been aware of the scale of the problem Environment ministers from these nine infringement actions for excessive levels for years but have not taken the action countries were all summoned to Brussels of particulate matter (PM10) against 16 required to reduce air pollution and for a special meeting with Environment member states. Legal action has also been protect citizens’ health. “Their actions can Commissioner Karmenu Vella on 30 initiated on nitrogen dioxide (NO2), so far be described in three words: ineffective, January, where they had to try to explain involving 12 member states. inadequate and negligent as Air Quality and justify their failures to meet the air Two of the cases, for persistent ex- Plans are too vague, quality requirements quality standards. ceedance of the limit values for PM10 in for solid fuels are still missing and the In a statement after the ministerial Bulgaria and Poland, have been brought standards for stoves only apply to new meeting, commissioner Vella said: “The before the European Court of Justice devices,” she said. deadlines for meeting the legal obligations (ECJ). In a landmark ruling in April 2017, If Poland continues to breach air pollu- have long elapsed, and some say we have Bulgaria was the first country to be ordered tion limits, the country risks hefty fines. waited already too long, but we can delay by the ECJ to take action to improve air However, penalties can only be imposed no more, and I have made that very clear quality (see AN 2/17, p. 26–27). after yet another court process. to ministers this morning.” The ruling against Poland followed Based on the guidelines of the European Despite this, the countries were given on 22 February 2018. Here, the court Commission, ClientEarth estimates that an opportunity to come back with new pointed out that between 2007 and 2015 in the case of Poland, financial penalties measures, and in mid-February the Com- the country regularly exceeded the daily may range between €5000 and €300,000 mission confirmed that all nine countries limits for toxic PM10 in the air in 35 zones for each day of the infringement plus a had submitted additional information, and the annual limit values in nine zones. lump sum penalty of between €4.3 million which should be evaluated by the Com- It should be noted that PM10 limits and €50 million. mission within the following month. are still being broken across most of the Warso-Buchanan concluded: “Fines Commenting on the ministerial meeting country. According to an air quality as- are a definitive measure. Instead, we hope and the court ruling on Poland, Margherita sessment published by Poland’s General that the Polish government will decide to Tolotto of the European Environmental Inspectorate for Environmental Protection, adopt the regulations necessary to improve Bureau (EEB) said: “There’s a toxic bloc 35 out of 46 zones recorded breaches in air quality as soon as possible.” of EU countries that are consistently

14 ACID NEWS NO. 1, MARCH 2018 breaching air quality laws and have been in cases brought by Environmental Action Paints and perfumes far too slow to clean up their air. This Germany (DUH) and ClientEarth over ruling is not just about Poland; it serves poor air quality. source of air pollution as a warning to other governments that ClientEarth’s lead clean air lawyer Ugo Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) from there are consequences for inaction on air Taddei said: “The win is a tremendous household cleaners, paints, perfumes and pollution. We expect other governments result for people’s health in Germany other consumer products have become a will be sent to court in March.” and may have an impact even further substantial source of urban air pollution as afield. This ruling gives long-awaited stricter controls on vehicles have gradually One day before the ECJ ruling on Poland, legal clarity that diesel restrictions are reduced road traffic emissions, according on 21 February, the Royal Court of Justice legally permissible and will unavoidably to a new study. in London ruled that the UK govern- start a domino effect across the country, VOCs react with other air pollutants ment’s air quality plans for England were with implications for our other legal to create ground-level ozone and they insufficient and unlawful. This was an cases. Putting traffic restrictions on the also contribute to the formation of fine embarrassing third defeat in successive most polluting vehicles is the quickest particulate matter (PM2.5). Both of these cases brought by environmental lawyers and most effective way to protect people air pollutants are significant health haz- ClientEarth. The judge ordered ministers from harmful air pollution.” ards, particularly in urban areas where to require local authorities to investigate The court recognised that immediate bans emissions tend to be highest. and identify measures to tackle illegal on all diesels would not be a proportionate The researchers found that emission levels of pollution in 33 towns and cities solution. It has said all diesels up to and inventories in the United States under- as soon as possible. including Euro 4 can be restricted. From estimate non-methane VOC emissions The ruling means, for the first time September 2019, bans will also apply to from these products by a factor of two ever, that ClientEarth can immediately Euro 5 diesel vehicles. to three, and say that the “use of volatile bring the government back to court if So far, the car industry has only offered chemical products – including pesticides, it prepares a plan which is unlawful, a updates to engine control software to coatings, printing inks, adhesives, cleaning move that was described by the judge as reduce NOx emissions from diesel cars, agents, and personal care products – now “wholly exceptional”. but the court decision in favour of diesel constitutes half of fossil fuel VOC emissions ClientEarth lawyer Anna Heslop said: bans could up the pressure on them to in industrialised cities.” “The judge ruled that the government’s provide significantly more efficient – and The article “Volatile chemi- plans were seriously lacking and has or- more costly – hardware fixes to heavily cal products emerging as dered urgent and additional measures. In polluting diesels. largest petrochemical addition to the government substantially Christer Ågren source of urban organic emissions.” Published in losing this case, the court has made an Sources: EEB media briefings on air quality (www. Science on 16 February exceptional ruling which will allow us to eeb.org); ClientEarth News (www.clientearth.org); 2018. Link: return immediately to court if the govern- European Commission press release 19 and 30 Janu- ment’s next plan is not good enough, to ary; Guardian 21 February; EurActiv 22 February. http://science.sci- protect people’s health.” encemag.org/con- The Welsh government conceded the tent/359/6377/760 case against it and will have to produce a draft plan, to bring pollution within © Slava_kovtun / Shutterstock.com legal limits, by 30 April 2018 and a final plan by 31 July 2018. TheUK government French incentives for less-polluting must finalise new plans for England by cars and heating systems 5 October 2018. From 1 January 2018 the bonus scheme households with very modest incomes to On 27 February, Germany’s highest for the purchase of new less-polluting switch from old heating systems to new federal administrative court ruled that vehicles, which was previously available renewable ones. Tax credits on insulation German cities can introduce diesel re- only to low-income families, has been improvement are maintained and extended strictions with immediate effect. The extended to all citizens and to second-hand to energy audits. From 2019, these will be court said national-level laws could be cars. For poorer families, the premium has turned into a premium to be paid directly bypassed to allow regional authorities doubled to €2,000. For buying an electric after completion of the work. to protect people’s health in areas where car, the incentive amounts to €2,500, on air pollution exceeds legal limits. The top of a €6,000 subsidy. Source: Ends Europe, 3 January 2018. decision is final. Measures also include bonuses and French Ministry: https://www.ecologique-solidaire. The ruling came after German states tax credits for domestic energy savings, gouv.fr/entree-en-vigueur-des-quatre-mesures-du- had appealed against bans imposed by and they specifically target low-income paquet-solidarite-climatique-au-1er-janvier-2018 local courts in Stuttgart and Düsseldorf households. Up to €3,000 is available for

ACID NEWS NO.1, MARCH 2018 15 Poland and Bulgaria challenge EU air pollution law Threat to annul new emission limits for coal-fired power plants that could save more than 20,000 lives every year.

In October last year, Poland launched legal are designed to clean up plants all over incremental costs of €2.3 billion in 2021. action against the European Commission the EU. Knocking them down has im- These are significant additional costs for aimed at overturning newly adopted plications for every country.” an industry that is already under great EU-wide air pollution standards for She continued: “Bulgaria has a terrible economic pressure. large power stations, and in early January track record on emissions from energy Actually, more than half of all the EU’s Bulgaria announced its support for the production. The government is currently coal-fired stations are already loss-making, Polish appeal. fighting several legal battles relating to according to a recent report by Carbon In addition, in November the umbrella the national coal industry. That includes Tracker. Stricter air pollution standards organisation of the European coal industry unlawfully allocating public money to and higher carbon prices will increase the (EURACOAL) together with German coal plants, and failing even to stick to operating costs, pushing even more plants lignite industries filed a case with a similar the former, lower pollution limits. The into unprofitability, and resulting in 97 aim, namely to annul the new emission legal case against the Commission is per cent of coal plants losing money by standards. weak and Bulgaria’s intervention sends 2030. By phasing out coal power by 2030, The legislation under attack is a reference a terrible political signal. The Bulgarian losses of €22 billion could be avoided. document for best available techniques government should be showing true “The changing economics of renewables, (BAT) for large combustion plants under leadership during its EU presidency, not as well as air pollution policy and rising the 2010 Industrial Emissions Directive trying to undo rules designed to protect carbon prices, has put EU coal power in (IED), which was adopted with a quali- our health and the climate.” a death spiral,” said Matt Gray, Carbon fied majority by EU member states on The Polish state-owned Bełchatów Tracker analyst and co-author of the report. 28 April 2017 and published in the EU’s lignite plant is the biggest emitter of “Utilities can’t do much to stop this other Official Journal on 17 August (see AN carbon dioxide (CO2) and NOx in the than drop coal or lobby governments and 2/17, pp 8–9). EU, and the second-worst SO2 emitter. hope they will bail them out.” TheBAT document contains air pollution The Bulgarian lignite plant Maritsa is When considering the urgent need standards that will require EU countries also one of the EU’s most polluting point to drastically cut not only air pollution to apply new, tighter emission limits for sources for all three pollutants (see AN but also CO2 emissions, as well as the sulphur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides 3/17, p.3). deteriorating economics of coal power, (NOx) and particulate matter (PM) to all A study prepared by consultants DNV- it appears logical and rational that these existing large combustion plants (LCP) GL on behalf of the European Climate old polluting plants should quickly be in the EU, including all large coal-fired Foundation shows that 82 per cent of coal closed down. power plants. Emission limits for mercury capacity expected to be online in 2021 is Christer Ågren have also been introduced for the first currently failing to meet the minimum Sources: time. The new emission limits will have air pollution BAT standards. To achieve ClientEarth news 27 October 2017 and 10 January to be complied with by 2021 and could EU-wide compliance with the new rules 2018. Link: https://www.clientearth.org save more than 20,000 lives every year by could require capital investments of Hard coal/lignite fired power plants reducing pollution from coal-fired power €14.6 billion, resulting in annual in EU28. By DNV-GL (June 2017). plants alone. In the fight Link: https://europeanclimate. Commenting on the legal challenge against EU org/hard-coallignite-fired- by Poland and Bulgaria, ClientEarth supremacy, our power-plants-in-eu28-fact- lawyer Sam Bright said: “This is lungs are a small based-scenario-to-meet-com- irresponsible use of the law. Poland thing to sacrifice. mitments-under-the-lcp-bref/ is clutching at legal straws for Lignite of the living dead. By political and economic reasons, Carbon Tracker (December instead of supporting measures 2017). Link: https://www. carbontracker.org/54-eu- that will protect the health coal-power-loss-making/ of millions. These entirely reasonable standards don’t just apply to Poland – they © lukovic photograpy / Shutterstock.com

16 ACID NEWS NO. 1, MARCH 2018 Europeans expect to cut back on meat New policies, health concerns and innovative food businesses can all contribute to reducing the climate footprint of European dinner tables.

One out of four Europeans plan to reduce 4. Creating awareness through educa- their meat consumption in the next five tion, media campaigns and/or food years. Only one out of twenty-five plan guidelines ¬– dietary guidelines an increase. These were the findings that propose a more even bal- when the economic and financial analysis ance between animal and consultancy ING Think recently surveyed plant-based products is 13,000 Europeans in 13 countries about influential, but so is the their attitudes towards a shift in diet. The marketing of food pro- results are published in the report “The ducers, retailers and protein shift: will Europeans change restaurants. their diet?”. However, there are The negative impacts of livestock produc- several factors that tion, as a major source of greenhouse gas discourage politicians and nitrogen emissions, has increasingly from proposing taxes appeared on the agenda. However, the and increased environ- potential for technical improvements to mental requirements reduce emissions is limited. As stated in on livestock production. the report, livestock farming in Europe Not least is the economic is already very efficient and “many cost- importance of the animal effective measures to improve efficiency food industry. Animal foods on the production side have already been represent the largest share of taken”. the EU food market, which is A dietary shift from animal-based dominated by some of the big- proteins towards plant-based proteins gest food companies and provides would have several environmental ben- the highest number of jobs in the food efits. However, according to the survey, industry. Public opinion is another undeni- environmental concerns come only fourth Flickr.com / RACHEL DocHerty CC By able factor. Only a minority, 14 per cent, Environmental concerns come only fourth on on the list of reasons to reduce meat con- of the respondents in the study thought the list of reasons to reduce meat consumption. sumption. The main motivation is health, that governments should be leading a followed by animal welfare and believing reduction in meat consumption. Even But although the vegetarian market is meat to be too expensive. fewer, 13 per cent, would advise their gaining ground, it is still the norm among Getting people to eat differently is more governments to introduce a meat tax. Europeans to eat meat for dinner. Ac- complicated than a shift from old mobile Even though politicians are hesitant, cording to the survey, 74 per cent of the phones to smart phones, the authors it does not prevent big food companies respondents identify themselves as regular conclude. But they also see that there is from investing in a growing market for meat eaters. A small group, 4 per cent, state great untapped potential to use policy alternative proteins. The report cites Paul that they never eat meat, and another 22 as a tool for a protein shift, and suggest: Grimwood, Chairman and CEO of Nestlé per cent indicate more flexitarian habits, 1. Direct and indirect subsidies – animal USA, “we’re experiencing a consumer eating meat once a week or less. and plant products already receive some shift toward plant-based proteins. One of The team behind the report also asked direct and indirect subsidies. Support Nestlé’s strategic priorities is to build out Europeans what animal food they would for innovation and marketing are also our portfolio of vegetarian and flexitarian miss the most if they couldn’t have it any examples. choices in line with modern health trends”. more. It turns out that Europeans love 2. Differentiating tax regimes ¬– in general Some meat-free alternatives, based for cheese, with 20 per cent identifying it as animal- and plant-based products fall example on soy, wheat and mycoprotein, their favourite product. It was followed by under the same tax regimes, but this are already widely available and accepted chicken, 17 per cent, and milk, 14 per cent. could change. by a large group of consumers. Novel Kajsa Pira 3. Using legislation to set production proteins based on lab meat, insects and standards – standards governing the Source: The protein shift: will Europeans change algae are still in the development phase. A their diet? https://www.ingwb.com/insights/research/ production of animal protein have been majority, 75 per cent, of the respondents the-protein-shift-will-europeans-change-their-diet widely adopted, but the bar could be say they would not eat food from those raised even further. sources on a regular basis.

ACID NEWS NO.1, MARCH 2018 17 Ecosystems hit by air pollutant fallout Three-quarters of EU ecosystems are currently exposed to more nitrogen deposition than they can cope with and nearly one-tenth is still receiving too much acid fallout.

The concept of critical loads was intro- ecosystems will by definition occur sooner the extent to which European ecosys- duced in the 1980s and has been used in or later. tems are exposed to more air pollutant Europe for developing cost-effective air The sensitivity of various ecosystems depositions than they can tolerate in the pollution abatement strategies. Critical to exposure to acidifying and eutrophy- long term without damage, i.e. where the loads are scientific estimates of the amounts ing air pollutants has been monitored critical load limits for acidification and of pollutants that various ecosystems can and mapped for more than 25 years, and eutrophication are exceeded. tolerate without being harmed. They are European countries have coordinated this This information has, together with sometimes referred to as work through the Coordination Centre data on people’s exposure to air pollutants, the limits on what “nature for Effects (CCE) of the Convention on been used as input for the development can tolerate”. If pollut- Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution of fundamentally important air pollution ant depositions exceed (CLRTAP). policies, such as the CLRTAP’s Gothenburg the critical load By comparing the critical load maps Protocol and the EU’s National Emission limits, damage with data on air pollutant deposition, the Ceilings (NEC) directive. to sensitive CCE has also produced maps that show Located at the Dutch National Institute

Exceedance (AAE) of CLaci 2005 Exceedance (AAE) of CLaci 2015 eq ha-1a-1 eq ha-1a-1 no exceedance no exceedance < 200 < 200 200 - 400 200 - 400 400 - 700 400 - 700 700 - 1200 700 - 1200 > 1200 > 1200

Nettles are favoured by nitrogen deposition.

Figure: Areas CCE CCE where critical loads Dep-data: EMEP/MSC-W Dep-data: EMEP/MSC-W for acidification are Exceedance (AAE) of CLeutN 2015 exceeded by acid Exceedance (AAE) of CLeutN 2005 eq ha-1a-1 depositions (top) eq ha-1a-1 no exceedance and areas where no exceedance < 200 critical loads for < 200 200 - 400 200 - 400 eutrophication are 400 - 700 400 - 700 700 - 1200 exceeded (bottom) 700 - 1200 > 1200 at 2005 (left) and > 1200 2015 (right) emis- sion levels.

18 ACID NEWS NO. 1, MARCH 2018 CCE CCE Dep-data: EMEP/MSC-W Dep-data: EMEP/MSC-W Meadow species such as orchids and birdsfoot trefoil are for Public Health and the Environment Table: Percentage area of ecosystems exposed to disadvantaged (RIVM) in Bilthoven, the CCE has since excess deposition of eutrophying and acidifying by nitrogen air pollutants in 2005 and 2015. 1990 been supported by the Netherlands. deposition. But due to lack of continued financial % of the ecosystem area where support this has now come to an end. critical loads are exceeded Responsibility for the European ecosystem km2 of the Acidification Eutrophication Biodiversity mapping activities will instead be taken ecosystem area 2005 2015 2005 2015 2005 2015 over by Germany and its Environmental (77%) was ex- Austria 1 <1 75 65 19 12 Protection Agency. posed to excess Belgium 25 6 11 4 55 49 Late last year the CCE published its nitrogen fallout Bulgaria 3 <1 100 100 69 16 final critical loads mapping report, pro- in 2015. Croatia 5 4 97 90 42 27 viding maps and country-by-country It should be noted that Cyprus <1 <1 100 100 <1 <1 data on exceedance of critical loads for these figures and maps give a Czech Rep. 90 65 100 100 56 43 acidification and eutrophication as well snapshot of deposition versus Denmark 31 10 100 100 27 19 as more preliminary information on ability to resist at a given Estonia <1 <1 83 76 13 11 biodiversity-critical loads. point in time – they do not Finland 1 1 10 3 9 6 Looking at the situation in 2005 – really reflect the true environ- France 10 8 89 87 9 6 which is the base year applied in the 2012 mental situation right now. Germany 63 49 82 78 45 35 Gothenburg Protocol and the 2016 NEC Environmental monitoring, directive – the highest levels of exceedance experiments and calculations Greece 3 1 100 98 42 15 of acidification critical loads were found show that there may be con- Hungary 13 6 100 100 72 40 in the Czech Republic, the Netherlands, siderable time lags in response Ireland 4 <1 8 6 84 81 Germany, Poland and Switzerland. For (damage) to excess deposition Italy 1 <1 78 63 77 77 eutrophication, the countries exposed to exposure as well as in recovery Latvia 13 5 97 94 6 4 the highest exceedance levels were the once pollution levels come Lithuania 32 28 100 99 19 7 Netherlands, Luxembourg and Germany. down. This means that the Luxembourg 15 13 100 100 64 46 In that same year, acidity critical loads damage that has already been Malta <1 <1 100 100 <1 <1 were being exceeded in 14 per cent of the caused by excess air pollut- Netherlands 90 88 76 73 98 96 ecosystems in the EU (11% in the whole ant inputs may persist for Poland 60 32 77 68 36 28 of Europe). The area exposed to nitrogen decades, in some places even Portugal 4 <1 100 100 26 15 overload, i.e. at risk of eutrophication, for centuries. Romania 3 1 100 99 49 16 extended over 81 per cent of EU ecosys- Clearly there is still a long Slovakia 9 5 100 99 47 34 tems (67% in Europe). For biodiversity, way to go to actually achieve Slovenia <1 <1 100 100 21 12 the figures were 29 and 27 per cent, the long-term environmental Spain 2 <1 100 99 33 17 respectively. See table and maps. objectives of the EU’s 7th Following emission cuts over the last Environmental Action Pro- Sweden 8 5 14 13 2 2 40 years in the main acidifying air pol- gramme, one of which is that UK 15 6 22 15 31 22 lutants, especially sulphur dioxide (SO2), there should be no exceedance Sum EU28 14 8 81 77 29 16 the area of sensitive ecosystems at risk of of the critical loads for acidi- Albania <1 <1 92 82 25 18 acidification in Europe has now shrunk fication and eutrophication. Belarus 13 8 100 100 64 49 significantly, to seven per cent, or 205,000 The same objective is also Bosnia & Herz. 14 11 79 72 24 21 2 square kilometres (km ). For the EU, eight enshrined in the CLRTAP Macedonia 12 2 92 76 46 30 per cent of the ecosystem area (137,000 Gothenburg Protocol and in Moldova 1 <1 100 100 47 34 2 km ) received excess acid deposition the EU’s NEC directive. Montenegro 1 <1 72 56 14 10 in 2015. Norway 11 7 9 4 2 1 Progress is however markedly Christer Ågren Russia 4 2 52 40 18 17 slower for eutrophication, which Sources: Serbia 34 23 95 94 63 58 is caused by excess nitrogen European critical loads: database, bi- Switzerland 20 15 60 53 8 3 deposition resulting from odiversity and ecosystems at risk. CCE emissions of nitrogen Final Report 2017. By J-P Hettelingh, Ukraine 3 1 100 100 54 50 oxides (NOx) and am- M. Posch, and J. Slootweg. Sum Europe 11 7 67 58 27 18 monia (NH3). While Modelling and mapping of the Note: There are some minor differences between the figures for 2005 in this the area at risk in Europe impacts of atmospheric deposition table and those in CCE Final Report 2017, as the figures presented here are based on the most recently available updated emission data. has shrunk somewhat since of nitrogen and sulphur: CCE Status Report 2015. By J. Slootweg, M. peaking around 1990, it still covers Personal communication with J-P Hettelingh and Posch, and J-P Hettelingh. M. Posch (February 2018). nearly 1.7 million km2 (63%). Spe- cifically for the EU, 1.1 million Link: http://wge-cce.org

Flickr.com / BIOdiversity Heritage Library CC By

ACID NEWS NO.1, MARCH 2018 19 Possible to phase out the climate impact of road traffic in 15 years Taxes, regulations, fuel switches, electrification and climate-conscious social planning is the recipe if the Nordic and Baltic states is going to abolish GHG emissions from road traffic.

Environmental groups and develop- signed, will ensure that the fuels they use Even if new fuels and electricity can be ing countries often argue that wealthy will have low climate impact by the date promoted on a large scale, it is unlikely countries have the biggest responsibility set in each country. that emissions could be phased out within for switching to fossil-free economies if Sweden is introducing a reduction 15–20 years solely through fuel switches we are to stay within the 1.5°C target. obligation this year. The climate impact and electric vehicles. Few commentators The industrialised countries caused the of diesel and petrol sold by fuel suppliers believe this could be achieved internation- problem and they have the resources in 2020 must be about 10 percent lower ally in such a short time. needed to achieve a transition. than that of fuels made entirely from The countries therefore also need to According to this reasoning, wealthy fossil resources. change taxation and travel allowances countries should phase out their climate As more countries introduce a reduc- to slow the growth in commuting by car. impact in the next two decades. Poorer tion obligation, fuel suppliers will have Local authorities need to improve public countries should be given longer, and they to invest more in developing new fuels. transport and introduce transport plans need the help of technological develop- However, there is a shortage of sustain- for freight traffic. Cities need to apply ment in the wealthier countries. ably produced raw materials. This means environmentally-friendly parking fees. IVL Swedish Environmental Institute there is a risk that a high level of biofuel Creating zero-emission zones for vehicles has analysed what it would take to phase use in some countries will compete with could lead to cleaner, quieter city centres out climate impact from road traffic in the use in other countries. while accelerating the switch to electric- Nordic and Baltic countries by 2030–2035. Electrofuels are one alternative to biofu- ity. Building regulations could reduce the It will be very difficult to reduce emissions els. These fuels are produced from carbon focus on car parking and encourage more this quickly, but it can be done with the dioxide using renewable electricity. The sustainable travel. right mix of measures. technology is new and more expensive, but Individual countries do not have all the At present, reduction obligations are an has potential in the long term. However, necessary tools, however. EU-wide rules effective tool for an individual country. it is unlikely that electrofuels could play a are needed to assist the transition. The EU The reduction obligation is a law that major role within the next decade. needs to stiffen requirements for lower forces fuel suppliers to gradually reduce The countries therefore need to in- fuel consumption and CO2 emissions the climate impact of fuels. This is done centivise electric propulsion, not least to from new vehicles, to reduce demand for by replacing fossil fuels with fuels with minimise demand for liquid fuels. An liquid fuels and increase electrification. lower climate impact, usually biofuels. effective model for individual countries is The EU can also impose requirements Many vehicles will still use internal to set differentiated vehicle taxes, so that on manufacturers that zero-emission combustion engines for a long time. A fuel-efficient and electric vehicles cost vehicles make up a certain percentage gradually increasing reduction obligation, if less, while inefficient, fossil-fuel-driven of their sales, and gradually increase this properly de- alternatives cost more. percentage. Such rules already exist in Electric vehicles are becoming more California and China. TheEU also needs popular and their cost is falling. But electric to support development of electric high- cars still make up less than 5 percent of ways and fuel cell propulsion, introduce new sales in most European countries. eco-friendly mileage taxes for light and And even if sales grow to the point heavy vehicles, and extend sustainability where electric cars make up around requirements for fuels. half of all new cars within 10–15 IVL’s report describes technologies and years, it still means that only trends in the transport sector and presents about 20 percent of the total some similarities and differences between mileage driven would be elec- the transport systems in the Nordic and tric. Heavy vehicles also take Baltic countries. longer to switch to electric Mats-Ola Larsson drive. Growth in renewable The report can be downloaded here: http://airclim. electricity generation will org/publications/what-will-it-take-phase-out-green- naturally also be needed over house-gas-emissions-road-traffic-nordic-baltic-region the same period.

Flickr.com / Nicola Sznajder CC By-Nc 20 ACID NEWS NO. 1, MARCH 2018 The Nordic-Baltic Region can y CC B CC auring be decarbonised by 2030 M rnu Tö / com Zero carbon emissions by 2030 can be achieved in the electricity, heat and industrial . sectors without nuclear power and without CCS, according to new report from AirClim. F lickr

Most of the decarbonisation of the eight and be implemented by 2030. Possible to surrounding countries (Russia, Belarus, countries1 can be achieved with wind technologies are outlined. Traditional Poland, Germany, the Netherlands and power and photovoltaic solar power, and cement can use upwards of 50 per cent the UK) where it replaces fossil power for improvements in efficiency. The wind and fly ash, slag or volcanic ash, instead of some time, assuming that decarbonisation solar capacity needed can be added at a lime, right now. Thomas Beton did so in takes place later there. A net export of 30 rate similar to that achieved in recent years. Germany in 2016. Other types of cement TWh of electricity is assumed for 2030. Under this scenario, wind power will and alternative construction materials can The scenario implies big change, but increase from 29 TWh in 2014 to 110 be developed fast, if required. Hydrogen big change is always taking place, though TWh in 2030. This is less radical than it can replace coal in the steel industry, often for other reasons than conscious looks. Wind power almost trebled between and the Swedish ore and steel industry political decisions. The phasing out of 2007 and 2014, from 9.9 to 29 TWh, which is working toward that goal. nuclear power has been very difficult in was roughly the required rate. Capacity is an issue for the power sector. Sweden, but happened between 2011 Solar will grow from 0.7 TWh in 2014 to The wind does not always blow, and the and 2014 in Japan without any political 35 TWh in 2030. The 2030 target for solar sun does not always shine. There is also decision. Japan managed without any in the NB8 region is less than Germany too much wind or solar sometimes. The of its 54 reactors for the whole of 2014, already has. It will cost us much less to difficulties should not be exaggerated. with no severe shortage. Lithuania was buy and build that solar capacity than it Hydro power is a big source of power 70 per cent dependent on nuclear power did for Germany. in our region and can to a considerable until 2010, when it was unceremoniously Cost is not quantified, but cannot be a extent balance variable renewable energy. turned off because it was a condition for big issue. Germany went for solar when So can, to some extent, biopower and Lithuanian EU membership. prices were very much higher than today bioheat. “Surplus” electricity, i.e. at very A scenario is something that can happen. or tomorrow. Even since Denmark’s solar low or negative prices, can be stored either Whether it will happen or not depends boom in 2013 prices have dropped sub- as heat or as hydrogen for steelmaking partly on market forces but more on stantially, while cost estimates for fossil and other industries, and possibly for political will and consistency. and nuclear power tend to rise. vehicles. The most important instru- Fredrik Lundberg Electricity consumption will decrease ment for balancing variable renewable 1 Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Finland, Denmark, from 410 TWh in 2014 to 371 TWh in energy sources is however demand-side Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia 2030, due to increased efficiency. It actu- management, which can reduce peak The report is available in print and at: http://airclim. TW consumption and thus cut the need for ally decreased by 12 h in 2007–2014, org/publications/vision-zero-carbon-emissions- so improvements will have to be made peak and reserve power plants. The need nordic-baltic-region-about-2030 slightly faster from now on. for some such “peakers” is still foreseen, While economics and technology look but they will not be widely used. See also AirClim report: “The 10 best climate mitigation measures in good for electricity and heat, there are The zero-carbon target comes with a Northern Europe” http://airclim.org/publications/10- some challenges for process industries limited escape clause. The scenario fore- best-climate-mitigation-measures-northern-europe such as steel, aluminium, lime and cement, sees some remaining fossil fuel use and but nothing that should not be possible associated CO2 emissions, but this can be to solve technically within a few years compensated for by exporting electricity

ACID NEWS NO.1, MARCH 2018 21 Greenwashing of farm payments The EU spends 12 billion euro a year on “greening” – a reform that is intended to main- stream environmental practices in agriculture but delivers close to nothing.

It is difficultto overlook the main conclu- costs of the beneficiary. The cost of greening provided anyway, even without public sion of a new report from the European measures was estimated at 30 euro/ha. It support, because they are either part of the Court of Auditors, since it is clearly was found that the majority of farmers, beneficiary’s normal activity or required stated in the title: “Greening: a more 71 per cent, do not need to comply with by law (here: cross-compliance)”. complex income support scheme, not yet any of the greening requirements because The origin of the greening mechanism environmentally effective”. of the various exemptions. Among those can partly be traced back to 2013, when the The EU body, whose role includes who do have to comply, two-thirds had European Council reached an agreement checking that EU funds have achieved costs below 25 euro/ha and 40 percent on the current EU financial framework value for money, is not gracious in its even less than 10 euro/ha. (2014–2020) and committed to spend criticism of new greening payments It is also difficult to assess what green- 20 per cent of the EU’s total budget on under the Common Agricultural Policy ing achieves, since there are no baseline climate change. Since the CAP is a very (CAP). The main question they examined parameters to compare with. The Com- large chunk of the EU budget it was neces- was whether greening has been capable mission have in their own communications sary to increase the part of the CAP spent of enhancing the policy’s environmental misled comparisons. Among other things, on climate. At the same time, member and climate performance. it is said that 73 percent of EU agricultural states were not prepared to allocate more It should be noted that the review is not land is affected by greening. This is actually money to the CAP or reduce direct pay- looking at small change. TheEU spends the total area of agricultural land that is ments. The limited scope of action that a massive amount on green payments: not exempt from the greening require- was left led the Commission to come up 12 billion euro per year, representing 30 ments. But because they are so basic, most with greening, in which 30 per cent of percent of all CAP direct payments and farms complied with them even before direct payments are conditional on some almost 8 percent of the entire EU budget. the reform. The share of agricultural land baseline measures that are supposed to One of the first things they criticise where there has been a change in practice benefit the climate. This may sound quite is that greening lacks a fully developed as a result of greening is closer to 5 per sensible. intervention logic. Although the purpose cent, according to more detailed studies The auditors also of greening is said to be for environmental carried out by the Joint Research Centre recognise that greening and climate reasons, there is no assessment and the auditors themselves. in the initial proposal from the Commission of what it is expected to achieve, or links The auditors introduce the term “dead- was “a more ambitious, environmentally- to relevant EU strategies, such as the EU weight”, which they aptly describe as focused measure” than the final outcome. Thematic Strategy for Soil Protection, the “situations where public money (here: They show that the changes made during EU 2020 climate and energy package and the green payment) is paid to a benefi- the legislative process led to watering the EU biodiversity strategy. ciary (here: a farmer) for public goods down of the environmental ambition, It is a basic principle, they note, that (here: farming practices beneficial for by dropping one practice and adding subsidies should be proportional to the the environment) that would have been exemptions and flexibility to the other

22 ACID NEWS NO. 1, MARCH 2018 com

What is greening? . Greening (or the green payment) is a of permanent grassland in the total Freshwater is also new type of direct payment to farmers agricultural area covered by CAP

introduced with the last reform of the direct payments. If the ratio falls by becoming more acidic S hutterstock / CAP (2014–2020). It was designed to more than 5% from a reference level, CO2 I sselee implement the principle that farmers member states must require farmers Rising in lakes and reservoirs may

to restore permanent grassland E ric © should be rewarded for the public harm animals that live in those ecosystems, previously converted to other land goods they provide. Through this reports Scientific American. Scientists uses. They should also designate have known for some time the ocean mechanism greening was meant to the areas of grassland which are the enhance the environmental perfor- most sensitive from an environmen- is acidifying because of climate change. mance of the CAP. The basic idea is that tal point of view. The conversion and The seas’ absorption of human-generated 30 per cent of the direct payments are ploughing of such environmentally carbon dioxide from the atmosphere is conditional on the implementation of sensitive permanent grassland is well documented, along with the harm it three types of greening practices: prohibited. Most countries have only is causing ocean creatures such as shellfish. 88 Crop diversification. Farms larger included land already recognised as A new paper published in Current Biology than 10 ha should have at least two Natura 2000 areas. crops, while farms larger than 30 ha 88 Ecological Focus Areas (EFAs). presents some of the first evidence that should have at least three crops. The Farms larger than 15 ha need to freshwater is also acidifying. share of arable land that farmers may designate 5 per cent of arable land In the study, researchers reported a sig- as EFAs. Member states are to decide devote to the main crop is limited to nificant increase in CO2 and a correlating which of the 19 types of EFAs farmers 75%. On farms where at least three pH decrease of about 0.3 in four reservoirs crops are required, the two main can choose to meet their obligation crops taken together must not cover by. They include land lying fallow, in Germany over 35 years. They analysed more than 95% of arable land. catch crops, nitrogen-fixing crops data collected from 1981 to 2015 by the 88 Permanent grasslands. Member and several types of landscape local Ruhr region agency that monitors states should monitor the proportion features. drinking water, and were able to document the rising carbon dioxide levels over time by factoring in changes in temperature, three. Ironically the Commission, in their of member states want to keep direct water density, pH, ion species distribution impact assessment, actually warn of a payments to farmers, while maintain- and total inorganic content. Source: https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/ CAP so-called menu approach, meaning that ing the budget at present levels or like-oceans-freshwater-is-also-acidifying/ member states can pick and choose from even reducing it. This leaves little space a list of measures, since this could water for reforms that would actually make a Call to halve meat and down the legislation and make it more difference to the climate or other aspects complicated. This was what was later of the environment. dairy consumption introduced in the Ecological Focus Areas, Kajsa Pira Global meat and dairy production and and they were proven right. consumption must be cut in half by 2050 In a recent communication the Com- Source: “Greening the CAP: income support more to avoid dangerous climate change and mission suggested that they want to complex and not yet environmentally effective” keep the Paris Agreement on track, is the abolish greening for the next post-2020 published by the European Court of Auditors, 12 message of a new Greenpeace report “Less CAP period. Unfortunately, a majority December 2017, https://www.eca.europa.eu/en/ Pages/NewsItem.aspx?nid=9338 is more”. According to their calculations agriculture, in a business as usual scenario, is projected to produce 52% of global greenhouse gas emissions in the coming decades, 70% of which will come from meat and dairy. In response to the rising impacts of animal agriculture on the environment, and the climate, Greenpeace is launching a new global campaign calling for a major shift in the way we eat and the way we farm. Greenpeace calls for a 50% reduc- tion of meat and dairy and a significant increase of plant-based in both production and consumption by 2050. The report: https://www.greenpeace.org/interna- tional/publication/15093/less-is-more/

ACID NEWS NO.1, MARCH 2018 23

Flickr.com / Kuhnmi CC By Sustainably feeding the Nordics It is possible to feed 37 million in the Nordic countries on food mostly produced within the region using organic practices. This would come with a significant reduction in the environ- mental footprint from food consumption

One year ago, Acid News (AN1/17) plemented with some feed crops grown emissions and more carbon is stored presented the preliminary results of the on arable land. This enabled more food when most of the ley is left on the fields. report “Future Nordic Diets”, which was to be produced from Nordic agriculture, On the other hand, the potential for finally published in December 2017. thus feeding a larger population. reducing eutrophication was higher for The report describes two scenarios The scenarios are described in more detail the EY scenario than for SY, primarily for Denmark, Finland, Norway and in figure 1. because the EY scenario provided more Sweden (referred to here as “the Nordic The results show that the scenarios would diets without using more arable land. countries”): one in which the majority of be able to produce enough nutritious food Leaching of nitrogen and phosphorus food is produced within the region using for 31 (SY) and 37 (EY) million people from arable soils accounted for roughly organic farming practices, and the other respectively in the Nordic countries. The two-thirds of the diet’s total eutrophica- in which livestock is mainly fed on grass scenarios would thus be able to support tion potential. The remaining third was and by-products not suitable for human the projected population in 2030, albeit mainly caused by ammonia emissions consumption: with changes in consumption patterns. into the air from manure management, • • In the first scenario, known as “suffi- Consumption of meat decreased by 90 and for the SY scenario also by ammonia ciency” (SY), the number of ruminants per cent (SY) and 81 per cent (EY) from from non-harvested ley residues. was limited to the minimum needed to current levels and was substituted by Ammonia was also the main con- graze all semi-natural pastures, while cereals, legumes and vegetable oil. tributor to acidification in the scenario monogastric animals (poultry, pigs Estimates of current greenhouse gas diets, accounting for 97 percent of total and aquaculture fish) were limited to emissions from the agricultural production acidification potential. Because theSY available food processing by-products. of food consumed in the Nordic countries scenario had fewer animals than the EY • • In the second scenario, known as “ef- range between 1,310 and 1,940 kg CO2-eq it also resulted in less ammonia emis- ficiency” (EY), the number of ruminants per person per year. The emissions from sions from manure. This was however was increased to utilise all ley grown in SY and EY scenario diets are significantly counterbalanced by increased emissions organic crop rotation, and by-product lower, giving rise to 360 kg and 480 kg from crop residues due to extensive areas feed for monogastric animals was sup- CO2-eq per person per year respectively of ley being used for green manure in the (figure 2). Emissions in the SY scenario SY scenario. are lower because fewer livestock The total of the reported ammonia result in lower methane emissions from agriculture and agricul- tural land use to the UNECE from the four countries was 174 thousand tonnes in 2014. The total ammonia emissions under the scenarios were 74 thousand tonnes (SY) and 90 thousand tonnes (EY), though they are not directly comparable since they also include ammonia emissions from harvest residue. The present study indicated a net se- questration of carbon in soils for the SY scenario and net carbon emissions for the EY scenario. However, the modelled carbon stock changes in this study did not take into account any increased al- location of biomass to roots, which may lead to an underestimation of the actual potential to sequester carbon in arable soils in the scenarios. Changes in carbon stock were also as- sessed for the two scenarios. But because of limitations in the model used this was only done for Sweden. The results show

24 ACID NEWS NO. 1, MARCH 2018

Flickr.com / Susy Morris CC By-NC Figure 2. Estimated annual Global

Warming Potential (GWP100), Eutrophi- -1 3- -1 -1 ton CO2-eq diet kg PO4 -eq diet kg SO2-eq diet cation Potential (EP) and Acidification 0,8 6,0 7,0 t e Potential (AP) from agricultural pro- i 0,7 6,0 d

5,0 duction and fisheries fuel consump- r

e 0,6

p 5,0 tion for the SY (thin bars) and EY (thick s 4,0 t 0,5 bars) scenario diets. The impacts c a 4,0 are divided between imports (grey), p 0,4 3,0 m i

crop production (blue), livestock l 3,0 a 0,3 t 2,0 production and manure manage- n

e 2,0 ment (orange), energy use (black) 0,2 m

n 1,0 and bioenergy production (white). o 0,1 1,0 r i

Only GWP100 was estimated for the v n 0 0,0 0,0 imported products. The total impacts E are largely dependent on the total 3- Million tons CO2-eq Thousand tons PO4 -eq Thousand tons SO2-eq number of people who could be 20 120 180 s t

fed in the different case countries, c

a 100 150 leading for example to relatively high p 15 m i emissions from the Danish scenarios, 80 120 l a since it would be possible to feed t n substantially more people from e 10 60 90 m

Danish resources than the current n o 40 60 r i

number of inhabitants v 5 n

E 20 30

l a t

o 0 0 0 T a net sequestration of carbon DEN FIN NOR SWE NIC DEN FIN NOR SWE NIC DEN FIN NOR SWE NIC in soils for the SY scenario and EY Out eld Total agricultural land net carbon emissions for the areas scenario. Carbon sequestration figures Arable land should always be treated with caution. But these results indicate that a transi- 4 2b 2c tion to organic farming of the type we 3c have today is not enough to achieve the 3b requirements of the Paris Agreement – that anthropogenic greenhouse gas emission 1 2a 3a sources and sinks are balanced by the second half of this century. To make this Semi natural Area used for plant based Area used for ley possible we will need other types of ac- pastures food 5 6 tions and management methods. Ruminants Food Monogastric needed to production One of the weaknesses of the study is animals graze by-products that both scenarios showed deficits in the MEAT AND PLANT MEAT WILD soil nutrient balances, which need to be IMORTED DAIRY BASED EGGS AND CAUGHT FOOD compensated by further N and P inputs to PRODUCTS FOOD FISH FISH arable soils. This could partly be alleviated by recovering nutrients present in human Figure 1. excreta, but other sources would also be 1The amount of semi-natural pastures available for grazing sets a limit on the number of ruminants needed for the long-term sustainability needed to keep these areas grazed. The ruminants provide meat and dairy products for the diets. of the farming systems. The closing of 2a Arable land was allocated to produce most of the plant-based food in the diets. Food process- ing generates byproducts that were used to supplement the ruminant feed and feed monogastric nutrient cycles is an issue that needs animals (poultry, pigs and aquaculture fish). The monogastric animals provide additional meat, eggs further work. and fish to the diets. Although there are issues to resolve, 2b To compensate for a reduced consumption of meat and other animal products, additional arable land was allocated to grow supplementary plant-based food (legumes, cereals and vegetable oil). the report shows that a more extensive 3 To provide green manure and pest control, ley was grown for at least two years in a six-year crop approach to agriculture combined with cycle. All crops except greenhouse horticulture and fruit orchards were grown in a crop rotation that altered eating patterns has the potential included ley. to be an important building stone in 3a Some ley was allocated to provide winter feed for ruminants and pasture for dairy cows that were assumed to be able to graze semi-natural pastures only to a limited extent. developing a sustainable food system in 3b Slaughter and food waste, manure and, to some extent, straw were used to produce bioenergy the Nordic countries. for heat, electricity and fuel use on the farms. If additional energy was needed, ley was harvested to Kajsa Pira produce bioenergy. The digestate was returned to the soils as organic fertilizer. 3c Ley that was not used for 3a or 3b was not harvested in scenario SY. In scenario EY this land was used to provide more pasture and winter feed for a larger number of ruminants. Future Nordic Diets – exploring ways to sustain- 4 In the EY scenario, Norwegian outfield areas were also included because of their importance in Nor- ably feed the Nordic countries http://airclim.org/ way’s animal husbandry. This provided additional pasture for ruminants, especially sheep. publications/future-nordic-diets 5 Some plant-based food (tropical fruits, nuts, tea and coffee) was imported and included in the diets. 6 A global “fair share” of wild-caught fish was included in the diets.

ACID NEWS NO.1, MARCH 2018 25 The communal deficits of German lignite usage For a successful phase-out of coal in Germany, it is important to understand the dependence of mining and industrial communities on lignite.

Since German reunificationin 1990, equipment additions, the total connected financial resources are therefore deficient lignite mining employment has declined capacity now exceeds lignite power plant not only for future regional development, from almost 130,000 to about 20,000 ratings by a ratio of more than 4:1. Total but also for providing regular municipal today due to industrial modernization and generation during periods of high wind services to residents. As a result, com- fuel substitution. The diminished regional intensity, particularly in coincidence with munal revenues have proven to be highly significance of mining has commensurately daytime solar generation, provides electric- susceptible to changes in the economic reduced the business income and tax rev- ity far exceeding maximum grid demand. prerequisites that had formerly prevailed enues received by local communities from Declining lignite corporation revenues as assurances of economic stability. the lignite industry. Although renewable in competition with renewable energies Germany’s largest (around 90 Mt an- energies provide many more employment have affected all mining regions. The nually) lignite producer, RWE AG in the opportunities in comparison with fossil 23.1% contribution of lignite to total lower Rhine basin, accrued 60% of total fuel power generation, wind and solar power generation in 2010 remained revenues in 2014 from lignite and coal installations generate far less energy per unchanged until 2016, providing 150 generation. By that time, however, mount- square kilometre than a lignite mine. In TWh in absolute terms. In view of this ing operating losses underlined the need consequence, the ensuing revenues from stable demand, the communities benefit- for business diversification.RWE posted new energy technologies are distributed ting from lignite industry business taxes a total year-end loss of €5.7 billion. over a wider area at significantly lower felt confident of continuing prosperity. Regular RWE stock dividends have density. Formerly prosperous lignite re- Many towns had accrued the highest been cancelled entirely for cities, counties, gions are incapable of regaining former statewide tax revenues per inhabitant from regional utility companies (Stadtwerke) and levels of communal welfare from wind lignite extraction on their territory. The local banks that hold nearly one-fourth of and solar farms installed on abandoned price of lignite also remained resistant to shareholder equity. RWE has discharged mining sites. international fuel market developments 10,000 employees (14% of total staffing) Nearly one-quarter of total grid power due to cost-effective local mining and since 2014 to reduce operating costs. By in Germany is currently generated us- generation, providing steady community the end of 2018, another 2,000 positions ing 152 Mt/a of lignite mined in three revenues related to production volumes will have been eliminated. geologically distinct regions: Rhineland, rather than to electricity and fuel exchange RWE’s municipal shareholders are re- Central Germany, and Lusatia. The widely price fluctuations. quired to write down stock losses below the mechanized operations contribute only In recent years, however, some of these original purchase price. For this reason, the marginally to regional employment. The same municipalities have reported the city of Essen lost €680 million of equity lignite industry nevertheless remains the highest deficits of any communities in valuation in 2013 alone. Bochum recently primary source of local tax revenues. In Germany. Not only are lignite industry began divesting its 6.6 million RWE addition, shareholding municipalities in revenues declining to the detriment of shares at a current unit price of around the Rhineland realize dividends from Eu- operating profits, but the energy corpora- €15, compared with €100 a decade ago. rope’s largest lignite corporation RWE AG. tions are also entitled to receive retroactive In contrast with the partial municipal Renewable generation provides electricity business tax refunds compensating for their ownership of RWE, eastern German cities to transmission and distribution grids on financial losses. Information available has and towns have no direct investments in the priority basis prescribed by Germany’s confirmed that many lignite community the lignite industry. Tax revenues are al- Renewable Sources Act (EEG). Due to treasuries are critically depleted. Essential located only to those communities with

26 ACID NEWS NO. 1, MARCH 2018 © yuRomanovich / Shutterstock.com 100% renewables more cost effective than fossils

A new groundbreaking study by Lap- peenranta University of Technology (LUT) and the Energy Watch Group (EWG) simulates a global electricity system based entirely on renewable energy on an hourly basis throughout a whole year. Its results 2017 record year for prove that the existing renewable energy offshore wind projects potential and technologies, including corporate assets immediately within their storage, are able to generate sufficient boundaries. A new report released by WindEurope high- and secure power worldwide by 2050. The municipal business tax income lights a record year for Europe and UK offshore Under favourable political conditions, full nominally reflects the profits obtained wind projects according to Euroactive. Offshore decarbonisation and nuclear phase-out of from lignite mining and power generation. wind is quickly becoming a mainstream energy the global electricity system can succeed The need to establish post-mining source for nations, with installation costs even earlier than that. The study proves tumbling at record rates. Wind Europe’s chief economies has been imposed upon the that a 100% renewable electricity is more lignite regions by developments unan- executive Giles Dickson said: “Offshore wind is now a mainstream part of the power system. cost effective than the existing system, ticipated a few years ago. Communities And the costs have fallen rapidly. Investing which is largely based on fossil fuels and can no longer expect to receive significant in offshore wind today costs no more than in nuclear energy. trade taxes or other revenues from local conventional power generation. Link: https://medium.com/thebeammagazine/100- lignite operations. Additional business tax Source: https://www.euractiv.com/section/energy/news/ renewable-electricity-worldwide-is-a-new-cost- refund obligations could be retroactively winds-of-change-seven-key-statistics-of-europes-boom- effective-reality-595e33d42547 ing-offshore-wind-industry/ imposed, while CO2 reductions have become inevitable. The resulting 2016 standby status of the MIBRAG Buschhaus power Accurate climate models plant has simultaneously eliminated lignite deliveries from the company’s Profen mine, The most accurate climate change models given level of carbon affecting local communities unprepared predict the most alarming consequences, dioxide emitted for a rapid post-lignite transision. Seven the Washington Post reports. into the atmos- additional power blocks at RWE and The climate change simulations that phere. That’s LEAG are also entering standby operation best capture current planetary conditions the practice by 2019. Other plants may soon be retired are also the ones that predict the most of the leading due to declining profitability and climate dire levels of human-driven warming, international protection directives. To minimize the according to a statistical study released climate science inherent risks to local economies, proactive in the journal Nature. body, the United lignite transition strategies have become The study, by the Carnegie Institution Nations’ Intergov- © Tinny Photo / Shutterstock.com essential for communities throughout the for Science in Stanford, Calif., examined ernmental Panel on Models predicting higher mining regions. the high-powered climate change simula- Climate Change. temperatures appear to The extensive financial and human tions, or “models,” that researchers use to Instead, the new be more accurate commitments made to lignite dependency project the future of the planet based on study compared these likewise constitute the greatest impedi- the physical equations that govern the models’ performance with recent satellite ments to its abandonment. While some behaviour of the atmosphere and oceans. observations of the actual atmosphere and, communities are already using reclaimed The researchers then looked at what the in particular, of the balance of incoming mining land for solar and wind develop- models that best captured current condi- and outgoing radiation that ultimately ment, an enduring economic transformation tions high in the atmosphere predicted was determines the Earth’s temperature. Then, will require measures implemented on a coming. Those models generally predicted they tried to determine which models scale comparable with former lignite usage. a higher level of warming than models that performed better. The research found the Jeffrey H. Michel did not capture these conditions as well. models that do the best job capturing the The study adds to a growing body of Earth’s actual “energy imbalance,” as the bad news about how human activity is authors put it, are also the ones that simu- changing the planet’s climate and how late more warming in the planet’s future. dire those changes will be. Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/ In the past, it has been common to energy-environment/wp/2017/12/06/the-most- combine together the results of dozens accurate-climate-change-models-predict-the-most- alarming-consequences-study-claims/?utm_term=. of these models, and so give a range for cb89f2e5fd1d how much the planet might warm for a

ACID NEWS NO.1, MARCH 2018 27

Flickr.com / GlassEyes view CC By-sa B ECONOMIQUE

Air Pollution & Climate Secretariat Första Långgatan 18 413 28 Göteborg Sweden Recent publications from the Secretariat Reports can be downloaded in PDF format from www.airclim.org Coming events

AIR POLLUTION AND CLIMATE SERIES AIR POLLUTION AND CLIMATE SERIES 37 The Greenhouse Cost-benefit Cost-benefit analysis of 36 The Greenhouse Effect, Effect, Global analysis of NOx Saltsjöbaden 6: Clean air for a sustainable Global Warming and Im- NOx control for ships in plications for Coral Reefs warming and the Baltic Sea and the control for ships future – goals and challenges. Göteborg, by Lennart Nyman North Sea Implications for By Katarina Yaramenka, Hulda Winnes, Stefan Åström, Erik Fridell in the Baltic Sea Sweden, 19-21 March 2018. Information: http:// Coral Reefs (March and the North saltsjobaden6.ivl.se 2018). By Lennart Sea (April 2017). By IMO MEPC 72 (Marine Environment Protec- Nyman. Tropical Katarina Yaramenka, tion Committee). London, UK, 9 - 13 April 2018. coral reefs harbor Hulda Winnes, Information: www.imo.org some 25 per cent of Stefan Åström, Erik

Air Pollution & Climate Secretariat all marine species. Air Pollution & Climate Secretariat Fridell. UNFCCC First sessional period in 2018. Bonn, Germany, 30 April - 10 May 2018. Information: AIR POLLUTION AND CLIMATE SERIES 38 A vision for zero Paths to a http://unfccc.int/ A vision for zero emissions in the sustainable FUTURE carbon emissions in NORDIC DIETS OECD International Transport Forum. the Nordic-Baltic Nordic-Baltic EXPLORING WAYS agricultural FOR SUSTAINABLY FEEDING Leipzig, Germany, 23 - 25 May 2018. Information: region by about 2030 region by about THE NORDICS system (Dec 2017). by Fredrik Lundberg https://2018.itf-oecd.org 2030 (March 2018). By Johan Karlsson et By Fredrik Lundberg. al. Exploring ways EU Green Week “Green cities for a greener A scenario for the for sustainably feed- future”. Brussels, Belgium, 21 - 25 May 2018. electricity, heat and ing the Nordics. Information: https://www.eugreenweek.eu industrial sectors. CLRTAP Working Group on Strategies and Air Pollution & Climate Secretariat Review. Geneva, Switzerland, 22 - 25 May 2018.

AIR POLLUTION AND CLIMATE SERIES Information: www.unece.org/env/lrtap/welcome. What will it 39 Clearing the air html What will it take to phase take to phase CLEARING out greenhouse gas emis- THE AIR (Feb 2017).A critical sions from road traffic in out greenhouse A CRITICAL GUIDE TO THE Air Pollution 2018: 26th International NEW NATIONAL EMISSION guide to the new the Nordic-Baltic region gas emissions CEILINGS DIRECTIVE conference on modelling, monitoring and by 2030–2035? National Emissions by Mats-Ola Larsson from road traffic Ceilings directive. management of air pollution. Naples, Italy, 19 in the Nordic- - 21 June 2018. Information: http://www.wessex. Baltic region by ac.uk/conferences/2018/air-pollution-2018 2030-2035? (March 2018). By Mats-Ola EU Environment Council. Luxembourg, 25 June Larsson. A conceiv- 2018. Information: www.consilium.europa.eu/en/ Air Pollution & Climate Secretariat able scenario. press/calendar/ CLRATP EMEP Steering Body and the Working

Factsheet, March 2018 AIR POLLUTION AND CLIMATE SERIES Climate policy Factsheet, March 2018 Climate policy Ecological effects Effects of climate Group on Effects. Geneva, Switzerland, 10 - 14 Effects of climate change on some September 2018. Information: www.unece.org/ Ecological effects of ocean acidifica- change on some anadromous salmonids anadromous env/lrtap/welcome.html of ocean acidification tion (March 2018). in the northern by Lennart Nyman By Lennart Nyman. hemisphere salmonids in the by Lennart Nyman IMO MEPC 73 (Marine Environment Protec- northern hemi- By absorbing CO2 tion Committee). London, UK, 22 - 26 October sphere (March the ocean is becom- 2018. Information: www.imo.org ing more acidic, and 2018). By Lennart this happens at a Nyman. Some direct WHO First global conference on air pollution rate faster than any impacts on salmons and health. Geneva, Switzerland, 30 October - 1

Air Pollution & Climate Secretariat Air Pollution & Climate Secretariat 1 1 period in the past can be predicted. November 2018. Information: http://www.who.int/ 300 million years. airpollution/events/conference/en/ 10th Better Air Quality Conference. Kuching, Malaysia, 14 - 16 November 2018. Information: Subcribe to Acid News via email http://baqconference.org Are you receiving UNFCCC Second sessional period in 2018; the printed copy This way, you’ll get access to Acid COP 24. Katowice, Poland, 3 - 14 December 2018. of Acid News but missing out on the News at least two weeks before the Information: http://unfccc.int/ online version? Sign up on our website printed copy arrives in the mail. CLRTAP Executive Body. Geneva, Switzerland, to receive an email announcement airclim.org/acidnews/an_subscribe.php 10 - 13 December 2018. Information: www.unece. when each issue of Acid News becomes org/env/lrtap/welcome.html available online.

28 ACID NEWS NO. 1, MARCH 2018