ISSN: 2560-1601

Vol. 25, No. 1 (EE)

Jan 2020

Estonia political briefing: Forecasting 2020: Estonian politics E-MAP Foundation MTÜ

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Forecasting 2020: Estonian politics

Internal politics wise, considering the country’s centennial-long history, it would be impossible to single out a high number of periods, which would be as turbulent as 2019 was in . Having appeared as a surprise to many, the current governmental coalition had to be battling one internal crisis after another one, and quite often the difficulties were popping up literally from nowhere, being almost never objectively predetermined. From March-April 2019, on a month by month basis, all of those ‘colourful’ moments comprehensively gave plenty of empirical data for the corresponding political briefings. At the same time, since the current composition of the Estonian Government has already survived some serious drama (after which many local as well as foreign cabinets would have easily collapsed), it may end up running the country during the whole year of 2020. If it occurs, it will be the coalition’s first full financial year, and, in December 2020, a summary on what the Jüri Ratas’ Second cabinet will have done will be more compelling, in analytical terms. After all, the Government will be implementing the country’s budget, for formulating which they were responsible and should be accountable. In January, however, it is a good time to give an educated forecast on what Estonian political life will be all about, in the following twelve months.

Firstly, all major political parties will be attempting to get ready for the upcoming local elections in 2021 – usually, this no less serious political contest in Estonia then the elections. For the parties of the politically ‘colourful’ governmental coalition – the Centre Party, EKRE and Pro Patria – it will be a quasi-mid-term checking point regarding their approval rate. Especially, it has to be a matter of concern for the Prime Minister’s Centre Party, which is not in good ‘shape’, digits wise. On 20 January 2020, in an averaged poll out of all national polls collected in Estonia, the oppositional Reform Party is scoring big time with 31.3%1. The ‘centrists’ are at 23.3% and the EKRE receive 15.1%, completing the top-3. The actual problem for the Centre Party is not in what they are currently at – after all, it is pretty much the same result at they got back in March 2019, during the latest parliamentary campaign. The issue for them is in the growing difference they evidently face with the ‘reformists’ in public support – the Reform Party’s approval is now 2.4% higher than it was back in March last. In the meantime, the ‘social democrats’ (who are the most probable partner of the

1 ‘Estonia’ in Europe Elects. Available from [https://europeelects.eu/european-union/estonia/].

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‘reformists’ when it comes to making a coalition) are enjoying almost the same level of support (9.7%), while the EKRE’s approval fell by 2.7% since then2.

In a significant addition, the ‘social democrats’ made plenty of headlines when joined them in autumn 2019. The paternal half-brother of the current , Kaljulaid (currently 38) was a highly ranked member of the Central Party, but left it due to disapproving the fact that his, nominally, centre-left political establishment got into a governmental coalition with the EKRE, an extreme populism-driven right-wing party. Later, during the 2019 European Parliament elections, he alone managed to receive 6.2% of the country-wide votes, which nearly got him through to Strasbourg3. In January 2020, Raimond Kaljulaid was elected to lead his new party’s political cluster in , the country’s capital city, while immediately declaring that “his priority [will be on] preparing for the local elections in 2021”; he also suggested that “he has a long-term plan for the party […] [and] that SDE could become the most popular force in Tallinn by the time of the 2025 locals”4. The ‘social democrats’ are not hiding their intentions – they will be after the ‘centrists’ to politically beat them during the upcoming contest for the seats in the Tallinn City Council. Indrek Saar, the leader of the ‘social democrats’, made it very clear:

The Centre Party has had the absolute majority in Tallinn since 2005. We have a realistic chance of denying them that majority at the next elections, which is clearly SDE’s aim.5

Realistically looking at the status quo, Raimond Kaljulaid can represent a serious challenge for the Centre Party-backed Mihhail Kõlvart, the current Mayor of Tallinn, who presumably would prefer to keep his job. At the same time, Kõlvart himself, irrespectively of his political allegiance, is a highly popular personality in the city, thus the upcoming Kaljulaid- Kõlvart contest is very much anticipated by the electorate as well as different experts.

Secondly for 2020, there will be something else, directly involving the family name of Kaljulaid. This time, it is going to be related to the current President of the Republic – Kersti Kaljulaid. As noted, despite the actual presidential contest will take place in 2021, “[d]ebates

2 ‘Estonia’. See also Valimised. Available from [https://www.valimised.ee/et?lang=en]. 3 ‘Voting and election result’ in Valimised. Available from [https://ep2019.valimised.ee/en/election- result/index.html]. 4 Raimond Kaljulaid cited in Anna Põld, ‘Kaljulaid takes key position in SDE’, Postimees, 7 January 2020. Available from [https://news.postimees.ee/6866141/kaljulaid-takes-key-position-in-sde]. 5 Indrek Saar in Põld.

2 on the process of presidential elections will likely start in 2020”6. In Estonia, the is usually elected by the Riigikogu, but when the country’s parliament alone does not succeed in implementing this particular duty (it was exactly the case in 2016 when none of the candidates were elected in three rounds of parliamentary voting), the Electoral College (it consists of all members of the Riigikogu and representatives from local governments) comes in to play the role. In 2016, however, the Electoral College did not succeed in finalising the process either, but it is a completely different story. As for the 2021 presidential elections, Helir-Valdor Seeder, the leader of Pro Patria, has already noted that due to “a new situation following Estonia’s administrative reform that has resulted in there being fewer local government electors in the Electoral College [,] [it will be] up to the Riigikogu to decide whether to change the procedure of presidential elections and how”7.

Apparently, the MPs do not have much time left, if they would like to make any adjustments to such an important procedure – there are few ideas on the issue floating on the surface, but almost all of them are very speculative. What is definitely not a speculation is that the relations between President Kersti Kaljulaid and the current Estonian Government are not bright, to say the least. Prime Minister Jüri Ratas publicly expressed his disagreement with the President “who said that the current [G]overnment […] poses a threat to Estonia’s constitutional order and the security of the state”8. Quoting Ratas directly

Today’s government ensures constitutional order in Estonia and is doing everything in order for Estonia's security and protection to become stronger. […] Of course I respect the president, and she has the right to say what she considers right, but if we consider how Estonia has strengthened its positions in the international arena in 2019, all of that says something else.9

Considering the above, it could be suggested that both the ‘centrists’ and the EKRE will be doing their utmost best to ensure that Kersti Kaljulaid is not to be re-elected in 2021. As for Pro Patria, their position is not quite clear at the moment, since the President-incumbent has had strong political ties with that particular party in the past. Yet another factor that needs to be kept in mind is President Kaljulaid herself. In a bit more that three years, from an almost

6 Ege Tamm and Anna Põld, ‘Busy year ahead’ in Postimees, 3 January 2020. Available from [https://news.postimees.ee/6863568/busy-year-ahead]. 7 Helir-Valdor Seeder as cited in Tamm and Põld. 8 Jüri Ratas as cited in ‘Ratas: Government doing everything to ensure Estonia’s security’, ERR, 30 December 2019. Available from [https://news.err.ee/1018881/ratas-government-doing-everything-to-ensure-estonia-s- security]. 9 Ratas.

3 unknown personality and a middle-range EU bureaucrat, she became a politician of global significance. In 2018-19, she championed her country’s successful campaign for the place in the UN Security Council. She is globally acknowledged as a promoter of e-governance being carefully interlined with human rights-driven policy-making. Her stories on Estonia as a “genuine digital society” effectively reached the most diverse range of business circles – “Why spend your life waiting in line for a piece of paper that proves you are you?”10. While remaining predominantly in the centre-right political ground, she managed to remain non-partisan, growing from strength to strength each next year of her presidency. With necessity, it can only mean that it will be a monumental task for any Estonian political movement to try to vote Kersti Kaljulaid from her current office in 2021, unless, of course, she will be stepping down voluntarily.

A “busy year ahead”11? Yes, most probably, Postimees was spot on, declaring the obvious. At the same time, there will be plenty of boring daily routine, to which Estonian politics will be requited to return. The country’s “the minimum salary of teachers will grow to EUR 1,315, […], [t]he average old-age pension will be hiked by EUR 45.00, […] [t]he duties on alcohol, lowered this summer, will also not be hiked in 2020 [,] […], [and] it is very likely the first stage of eastern border development will be launched this year”12 (a 23.5-kilometer section between the triple border point, where Estonia, and Russia meet). For the Estonian Government, there is a budget to implement and there is a country to run. The country for the Estonian society.

10 Kersti Kaljulaid in ‘How Estonia turned digital, explained by its President’, World Economic Forum, 20 February 2019. Available from [https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/02/estonia-is-running-its-country-like-a- tech-company/]. 11 Tamm and Põld. 12 Tamm and Põld.

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