Observed Climate Trends and projected Climate Change in the

Presented by: Thelma A. Cinco Assistant Weather Services Chief

Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration

PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA Outline

• Observed Trends: Global and the Philippines

• Climate Projections: SRES– and RCP– based climate projections

• Using the Climate Risk Analysis Matrix

PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA Distinguishing the difference

Weather Climate • Is a specific meteorological • The average weather event or condition that conditions over a long happens over a period of period of time (typically 30 hours or a few days. years).

PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA Weather and climate information being provided by PAGASA Past Present Future

PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA The SW and NE monsoons in the Philippines

June-July-August October-November-December

PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA What is Climate variability?

Climate variability refers to shorter term fluctuations in climate such as those caused by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Phenomenon.

PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA El Niño Southern Oscillation(ENSO) El Niño La Niña

Source: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov

PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA El Niño affects several regions across the globe

PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA Some of the Impacts of El Niño in the Philippines

PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA Some of the Impacts of La Niña in the Philippines

ST. BERNARD LANDSLIDE Feb 2006

Landslide :Ginsaugon, Feb 2006

PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA Climate Change? Is that really happening?

PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA Global warming: Indicative of climate change Is Global Temperature Rising?

0.85°C 1880-2012 (IPCC AR5)

PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority Source:PAGASA IPCC AR5 WG1 Global warming: Indicative of climate change Is Global Temperature Rising? Earth’s Long Term (1880-2016) Warming Trend (5-year average)

Source: National Aeronautics and Space Administration

PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA 2016 global mean temperature is a record high

PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA August 2017 is the second highest

PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA Latest from WMO

DOST-PAGASA Payong PAGASAThe Weather and Climate Authority The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA What are the Observed Climate Trends in the Philippines ?

PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA Observed climate trends in the Philippines: Over the past 65 years (1951-2015), a 0.68˚C increase in annual mean temperature has been observed

0.99˚ C annual minimum 0.24˚C annual maximum temperature increase temperature increase

PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA Wetting/drying tendency of annual total rainfall in the Philippines (1951-2010)

• Parts of central and northern

• Parts of eastern

• Northeastern and southwestern sections

• Northern sections of Luzon

• Parts of western Visayas

• Central and western sections Mindanao

PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA Increasing and decreasing trends in seasonal rainfall (1951-2010)

Dec-Jan-Feb Mar-Apr-May Jun-Jul-Aug Sep-Oct-Nov

Source: IAAS, 2016

PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA Increasing number of hot days and decreasing cold nights

Hot days Cold Nights

Source: Cinco et al. 2014

PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA Increasing frequency of extreme rainfall events (1951–2010)

Intensity Frequency

Source: Cinco et al. 2015

PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA Slightly decreasing in number of Tropical Cyclones TCs

Source: Cinco et al., 2016

PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA Slightly increasing number of intense TCs (maximum sustained winds >170kph)

PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA Frequency of Tropical Cyclones which crossed the Metro for the period 1948 to 2016

PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA Will those changes continue in the future?

PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA Understanding the difference

Weather forecast Climate projection • The state of the atmosphere • A likelihood of something to (or the weather situation) at happen in climate several a particular location over a decades or centuries in the short period of time future

• Highly dependent on the • Conditional climate initial state of the expectations based on atmosphere and the upper scenarios (e.g., increase in ocean green house gases)

PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA Understanding how Climate Projections

are made

PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA Different scenarios SRES - Special Report on RCP – Representative Emissions Scenarios Concentration Pathways SCENARIO Socio-economic driven scenarios Emission-driven scenarios Describes a wide range of potential futures for the main drivers of climate change – greenhouse gases, air pollutant emissions &

DESCRIPTION land use • Demography RADIATIVE FORCING • Economic development RCP scenarios are new scenarios that specify • Regionalization concentrations and corresponding emissions, • Energy production/use • Technology (No fixed sets of assumptions related to BASES • Agriculture population growth, economic development, or • Forestry technology associated with any RCP) • Land use

A1, A2, B1, B2 families RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, 8.5 (Wm-2) NAMES PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA Rising radiative forcing pathway 8.5 8.5 SRES vs RCP leading to 8.5 W/m² Comparison of CO2 concentrations from in 2100. SRES (A1B, A1FI, A2, B1) and RCP Stabilization without RCP (RCP 3, RCP 4.5, RCP 6, RCP 8.5) overshoot pathway 6 to 6 W/m² at stabilization after

RCP RCP 2100

Stabilization without overshoot pathway

4.5 4.5 to 4.5 W/m² at stabilization after 2100 RCP RCP

Peak in radiative forcing at ~ 3 W/m² 2.6 before 2100 and decline RCP RCP

PAGASA Source: IPCCPayong AR5 WG1 The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA Projected Annual Mean Temperature Change*

SUMMARY of CHANGES Scenario Mid-21st century End of the 21st century A1B +1.4 to +2.0 +2.7 to +3.8 RCP4.5 +0.9 to +1.9 +1.3 to +2.5 RCP8.5 +1.2 to +2.3 +2.5 to +4.1 1.61.21.40.9°°CC (2036– 2.32.01.9-2065°C) ((203620362030-2065)2059) MDGF12SEACAM7 model model Report simulations* simulationsReport– SRES A1B

*relative to 1971 to 2000

PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA Possible risks associated with warmer temperature

PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA Projected changes in seasonal total rainfall by the Mid-21st Century (2036-2065) based on RCP8.5 scenario

Dec-Jan-Feb Mar-Apr-May Jun-Jul-Aug Sep-Oct-Nov

Wettest Possible

Median

Driest Possible

PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA Possible risk associated with increased/enhanced rainfall in the future

PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA Possible risk associated with drier condition in the future

Source: http://opinion.inquirer.net

PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA Projected future change in tropical cyclones to affect the Philippines

Source: Daron et al. 2016, DFID project, UK- Met-office report

PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA Some of the Impacts of strong tropical cyclones

PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA So, what can we do now to make our families, communities, businesses, and our whole locality resilient to climate variability and change?

PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA Link of DRR and CCA Climate Change Disaster Risk Adaptation: Management

Reduce risk to: Reduce risk to:

Gradual changes in Extreme weather Climate and Geophysi Ecological climatic parameters event with weather cal Events increased frequency related Events and severity events

Other events Changes in Changes in Direct connection (e.g. Sea Level mean Precipitation technological, Rise Temperature patterns Hazards that are terrestrial associated with extreme events

Hazards that are associated with changing climate “Normals” CCA and DRR: point of conceptual convergence (Source: Gotangco 2012)

PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA Climate Change Impacts

PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA Projected changes in seasonal rainfall over by the Mid-21st Century (2036-2065) based on RCP8.5 scenario

Dec-Jan-Feb Mar-Apr-May Jun-Jul-Aug Sep-Oct-Nov

Wettest Possible

Median

Driest Possible

PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA How to Utilize the Climate Risk Analysis Matrix CLIRAM

PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA Climate Risk Analysis Matrix CLIRAM

Projected Changes in Seasonal Rainfall in the Mid-21st Century (2036-2065) for Eastern Samar relative to 1971-2000

Projected Change Projected Seasonal Information about patterns of Season Scenario Range* Rainfall amount Rainfall Amount Potential Impacts Adaptation Option Percent (%) Change (mm) (mm)

Moderate Lower Bound -4.2 -41.1 945.9 December-January- Emission Median 1.3 12.5 999.5 February (DJF) (RCP4.5) Upper Bound 45.0 444.4 1431.4

Observed baseline = Lower Bound -7.9 -77.8 909.2 High Emission 987 mm (RCP8.5) Median 13.7 135.2 1122.2 Upper Bound 43.6 430.8 1417.8

Moderate Lower Bound -2.6 -12.1 452.0 March-April-May Emission Median 1.8 8.2 472.3 (MAM) (RCP4.5) Upper Bound 17.4 80.8 544.9

Observed baseline = Lower Bound 5.8 26.8 490.9 High Emission 464 mm (RCP8.5) Median 1.1 5.3 469.4 Upper Bound 13.0 60.3 524.4

Moderate Lower Bound -6.7 -37.5 522.3 June-July-August Emission Median -1.1 -6.0 553.8 (JJA) (RCP4.5) Upper Bound 8.3 46.4 606.2

Observed baseline = Lower Bound -14.0 -78.3 481.5 High Emission 560 mm (RCP8.5) Median -0.6 -3.2 556.6 Upper Bound 9.7 54.6 614.4

Moderate Lower Bound -20.1 -174.9 696.5 September-October- Emission Median -16.6 -144.7 726.7 November (SON) (RCP4.5) Upper Bound -3.8 -33.4 838.0

Observed baseline = Lower Bound -22.0 -191.3 680.1 High Emission 871 mm (RCP8.5) Median -9.3 -81.3 790.1 Upper Bound 4.7 40.7 912.1 * upper: 90th percentile; median: 50th percentile; lower: 10th percentile

PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA In accomplishing the CLIRAM for seasonal values determine the projected patterns of change (Column 7 of Table 1) based on the following (refer to Columns 4 to 6):

1. The lower bound that indicates the lowest possible change; 2. The upper bound that indicates the highest possible change; and 3. The median which represents multi model central estimate the future change.

PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA Example of a filled-up CLIRAM for Agriculture sectors in Salcedo Example(of(the(filled(up(CLIRAM(for(different(sectors(in(Salcedo ( CLIRAM:(Projected(Changes(in(Seasonal(Rainfall(in(the(Mid=21st(Century((2036=2065)(for(Eastern(Samar(relative(to(1971=2000((((((((((( Agriculture Projected'Change Projected' Information'about'patterns'of'change Potential' Season Scenario Range* Rainfall'amount' Seasonal' Adaptation'Option Percent'(%) Impacts (mm) Rainfall'Amount' Col'1 Col'2 Col'3 Col'4 Col'5 (mm)Col'6 Col'7 Col'8 Col'9 Lower(Bound =4.2 =41.1 945.9 Minimal(to(no(change •Extend(cover/greenhouse(style(of(planted(crops Same(vulenrability(to((the(present Median 1.3 12.5 999.5 Minimal(to(no(change •Plant(water(resistant(varieties,(raise(beds,(transfer( The(highest(possible(future(rainfall(change(during(the(●(Farm(Flooding,Crops(ruined((e.g.( planting(sites wash(out(of(planted(cassava(6=8(months( Moderate( Northeast((NE)(Monsoon(or(Amihan(shows(an(increase( •Provide(good(farm(drainage,(by(construction(of( growing(period) of(45%(.(This(increase(could(be(detrimental(to(some( irrigation(canals(to(divert(excess(surface(run=off Emission( ●(Pest(&(Disease(Infestation •(Practice(cut&carry,(provide(permanent(shelter(to( (RCP(4.5) Upper(Bound 45.0 444.4 1431.4 sectors(of(the(community,(as(this(season(corresponds(●(Increased(Cost(of(lodging(animals(&( livestock December= to(the(wettest(months(over(the(region( crops January=February( ●(Decrease(in(yield(/production •(Use(flood(tolerant(/(water(resistant( (DJF)((((((( varieties/drought(tolerant(varieties (((((((((((((((((((( •(Conduct(Climate(Field(School(to(make(farmers( Lower(Bound =7.9 =77.8 909.2 Minimal(to(no(change Observed( Same(vulenrability(to((the(present more(resilient(to(climate(adversities baseline(=((987( Median 13.7 135.2 1122.2 Minimal(increase •(Provide(EWS(for(agriculture mm ●(Farm(Flooding,Crops(ruined((e.g.(•(Provide(insurance(to(farmers The(highest(possible(future(rainfall(change(during(the(wash(out(of(planted(cassava(6=8(months( High(Emission( Northeast((NE)(Monsoon(or(Amihan(shows(an(increase(growing(period) (RCP(8.5) Upper(Bound 43.6 430.8 1417.8 of(44%.(This(increase(could(be(detrimental(to(some(●(Pest(&(Disease(Infestation sectors(of(the(community,(as(this(season(corresponds(●(Increased(Cost(of(lodging(animals(&( to(the(wettest(months(over(the(region( crops ●(Decrease(in(yield(/production

PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA Example(of(the(filled(up(CLIRAM(for(different(sectors(in(Salcedo ( CLIRAM:(Projected(Changes(in(Seasonal(Rainfall(in(the(Mid=21st(Century((2036=2065)(for(Eastern(Samar(relative(to(1971=2000((((((((((( Agriculture Projected'Change Projected' Information'about'patterns'of'change Potential' Season Scenario Range* Rainfall'amount' Seasonal' Adaptation'Option Percent'(%) Impacts (mm) Rainfall'Amount' Col'1 Col'2 Col'3 Col'4 Col'5 (mm)Col'6 Col'7 Col'8 Col'9 Lower(Bound =4.2 =41.1 945.9 Minimal(to(no(change Same(vulenrability(to((the(present Median 1.3 12.5 999.5 Minimal(to(no(change The(highest(possible(future(rainfall(change(●(Farm(Flooding,Crops(ruined((e.g.( •Extend(cover/greenhouse(style( wash(out(of(planted(cassava(6=8(months( Moderate( during(the(Northeast((NE)(Monsoon(or( of(planted(crops growing(period) Amihan(shows(an(increase(of(45%(.(This( •Plant(water(resistant(varieties,( Emission( ●(Pest(&(Disease(Infestation (RCP(4.5) Upper(Bound 45.0 444.4 1431.4 increase(could(be(detrimental(to(some(sectors(●(Increased(Cost(of(lodging(animals(&( raise(beds,(transfer(planting(sites December= of(the(community,(as(this(season(corresponds(crops •Provide(good(farm(drainage,(by( January=February( to(the(wettest(months(over(the(region( ●(Decrease(in(yield(/production construction(of(irrigation(canals(to( (DJF)((((((( divert(excess(surface(run=off (((((((((((((((((((( •(Practice(cut&carry,(provide( Lower(Bound =7.9 =77.8 909.2 Minimal(to(no(change Observed( Same(vulenrability(to((the(presentpermanent(shelter(to(livestock baseline(=((987( Median 13.7 135.2 1122.2 Minimal(increase •(Use(flood(tolerant(/(water( mm ●(Farm(Flooding,Crops(ruined((e.g.(resistant(varieties/drought( The(highest(possible(future(rainfall(change( wash(out(of(planted(cassava(6=8(months(tolerant(varieties High(Emission( during(the(Northeast((NE)(Monsoon(or( growing(period) •(Conduct(Climate(Field(School(to( (RCP(8.5) Amihan(shows(an(increase(of(44%.(This( Upper(Bound 43.6 430.8 1417.8 ●(Pest(&(Disease(Infestation make(farmers(more(resilient(to( increase(could(be(detrimental(to(some(sectors( ●(Increased(Cost(of(lodging(animals(&(climate(adversities of(the(community,(as(this(season(corresponds( crops •(Provide(EWS(for(agriculture to(the(wettest(months(over(the(region( ●(Decrease(in(yield(/production •(Provide(insurance(to(farmers Moderate( Lower(Bound =2.6 =12.1 452.0 Minimal(to(no(change March=April=May( Emission( Median 1.8 8.2 472.3 Minimal(to(no(change (MAM)(((((((((((( (RCP(4.5) Upper(Bound 17.4 80.8 544.9 Minimal(increase (((((((((((((((((((((((((Ob Lower(Bound 5.8 26.8 490.9 Minimal(to(no(change served(baseline(=((High(Emission( Median 1.1 5.3 469.4 Minimal(to(no(change 464(mm (RCP(8.5) Upper(Bound 13.0 60.3 524.4 Minimal(increase Minimal(to(no(change June=July=August( Moderate( Lower(Bound =6.7 =37.5 522.3 (JJA)((((((((((((((((((((((((Emission( Median =1.1 =6.0 553.8 Minimal(to(no(change (RCP(4.5) Upper(Bound 8.3 46.4 606.2 Minimal(to(no(change Observed( Lower(Bound =14.0 =78.3 481.5 Minimal(reduction High(Emission( baseline(=((560( Median =0.6 =3.2 556.6 Minimal(to(no(change mm (RCP(8.5) Upper(Bound 9.7 54.6 614.4 Minimal(increase The(driest(possible(future(rainfall(change(Water(is((sufficient(for(farming(activity during(the(transition(period(from(NE(to(SW( Moderate( Lower(Bound =20.1 =174.9 696.5 monsoon(shows(a(reduction(of(20% September= Emission( The(most(likely(future(rainfall(change(during( October= (RCP(4.5) the(transition(period(from(NE(to(SW(monsoon( November((SON)(((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((Median =16.6 =144.7 726.7 shows(a(reduction(of(17% Upper(Bound =3.8 =33.4 838.0 Minimal(to(no(change Observed( baseline(=((871( The(driest(possible(future(rainfall(change( Lower(Bound =22.0 =191.3 680.1 during(the(transition(period(from(NE(to(SW( mm High(Emission( monsoon(shows(a(reduction(of(22% (RCP(8.5) Median =9.3 =81.3 790.1 Minimal(to(no(change Payong PAGASAUpper(Bound 4.7 40.7 912.1 Minimal(to(no(change *(upper:(90th(percentile;(median:(50th(percentile;(lower:(10th(percentileThe Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA Example(of(the(filled(up(CLIRAM(for(Agriculture(in(Salcedo

CLIRAM:Projected(Changes(in(Seasonal(Temperature(in(the(Mid\21st((Century((2036\2065)(for(Eastern(Samar(relative(to(1971\2000((((((((((( Agriculture Projected'Change Information'about' Potential' Season Scenario Range* Projected'Seasonal' patterns'of'change Adaptation'Option Change'in' Impacts Mean'Temperature' Col'1 Col'2 Col'3 Col'4 Col'5()' Col'6 Col'7 Col'8 Lower(Bound 1.0 27.1 Coldest(season Generally((all(seasons(becoming(( (•(Conduct(Climate(Field(School(to( Moderate(Emission( December\January\ Median 1.1 27.2 27.1(to(27.7 warmer(,(in(which(Air(surface,(soil( make(farmers(more(resilient(to( February((DJF)((((((( (RCP4.5) Upper(Bound 1.6 27.7 and(groundwater(temperatures(will( climate(adversities (((((((((((((((((((( Lower(Bound 1.3 27.4 be(warmer.(The(general(climate( •(Provide(EWS(for(agriculture Observed(baseline(=(( High(Emission( 26.1( Median 1.5 27.6 27.4(to(28.0 effects(of(having(warmer(oceans(or( •(Provide(insurance(to(farmers (RCP8.5) Upper(Bound 1.9 28.0 lakes(are(included(here. •(Translating(the(temperature( (Increase(in(temperature((ranging( changes(to(impacts(to(different( Lower(Bound 1.0 28.7 Moderate(Emission( from(1.0(to(2.2(degrees crops Median 1.2 28.9 28.7(to(29.4 March\April\May((MAM)(((((((((((( (RCP4.5) (•(Impotent(livestock/crops Upper(Bound 1.7 29.4 (((((((((((((((((((((((((Observe (•(Livestock(disease Lower(Bound 1.4 29.1 d(baseline(=((27.7( High(Emission( (•(Decrease(in(yield(/production( Median 1.6 29.3 29.1(to(29.8 (RCP8.5) (•(Ice(Ice(effect Upper(Bound 2.1 29.8 (•(Fish(Kill Lower(Bound 1.0 29.3 Moderate(Emission( Median 1.2 29.5 29.3(to(30.1 June\July\August((JJA)(((((((((((((((((((((((( (RCP4.5) Upper(Bound 1.8 30.1 Observed(baseline(=(( Lower(Bound 1.4 29.7 Hottest(season 28.3( High(Emission( Median 1.7 30.0 29.7(to(30.5 (RCP8.5) Upper(Bound 2.2 30.5 Lower(Bound 1.0 28.7 Moderate(Emission( September\October\ Median 1.2 28.9 28.7(to(29.5 November((SON)((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((RCP4.5) Upper(Bound 1.8 29.5 Lower(Bound 1.4 29.1 Observed(baseline(=(( High(Emission( 27.7( Median 1.5 29.2 29.1(to(29.9 (RCP8.5) Upper(Bound 2.2 29.9 *(upper:(90th(percentile;(median:(50th(percentile;(lower:(10th(percentile

PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA DAVAO"REGION May"Rainfall"vs"Mangostin 800 y"="$0.7347x"+"435.03 600

400

200

0 0.0 50.0 100.0 150.0 200.0 250.0 300.0

PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA COMPONENTS

Component A: Risk and Vulnerability Assessment

Component B: GHG Inventory and Review of Current Mitigation Actions

PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA Key questions and elements for Component A in Step Step3 3 LCCAP

Component A: Key Questions: Climate Change Vulnerability 1. Vulnerabilities, Risks, and Opportunities of climate change in communities and Risk Assessment 2. Types of climate-related and natural hazards 3. Issues that need to be addressed, 4. Location of climate change issues and hazards- current and are projected to happen (illustration/mapping)

5. Summary description on type of climate related hazards and issues will the LGU face in the future? 6. Analysis report on why and when should action be initiated

PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA Activity Objectives: • To be able to interpret the projected climate changes in the area assigned to you • To identify the potential impacts of projected changes and provide possible adaptation options using the CLIRAM for seasonal rainfall and mean temperature Ø Determine the projected patterns of change in seasonal rainfall. Provide your inputs in Column 7 by referring to the information provided in Columns 4 to 6 of the CLIRAM: • The lower bound indicates the driest possible change; • The upper bound indicates the wettest possible change; and • The median represents the multimodel central estimate of future change Ø Identify the sectors affected by the changes, potential impacts of projected changes and adaptation options

PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA Projected Changes in Seasonal Rainfall in the Mid-21st Century (2036-2065) for relative to 1971-2000

PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA Projected Changes in Seasonal Rainfall in the Mid-21st Century (2036-2065) for Metro Manila relative to 1971-2000

PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA Pampanga

PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA Albay

PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA Leyte

PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA Misamis Oriental

PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA Davao del Norte

PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA Acknowledgements

Thelma A. Cinco, Emma D. Ares, Marcelino Q. Villafuerte II, John A. Manalo, Wilmer Agustin, Kimberli Anne Aquino

Joseph Daron, Richard Jones, Ian Macadam, Florian Gallo, Ron Kahana, Claire Scannell, David Hein, Simon Tucker, Rosanna Amato, and David Corbelli;

Jack Katzfey and Dewi Kirono.

PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA Thank you! J Contact us: Impact Assessment and Application Section Climatology and Agrometeorology Division, DOST-PAGASA +632-434-58-82/434-8130 Thelma A. Cinco email: [email protected]

http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/ www.facebook.com/PAGASA.DOST.GOV.PH @dost_pagasa

PAGASA Payong The Weather and Climate Authority PAGASA