Game Change Donald J

www.policymagazine.ca January—February 2017

Canadian Politics and Public Policy

Game Change Donald J. Trump

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The largest manufacturer of men’s and boy’s tailored clothing in the world. www.peerless-clothing.com 1.800.336.9363 1 In This Issue From the Editor / L. Ian MacDonald 2 Game Change 3 Q&A: Canadian Politics and A Conversation With Brian Mulroney Public Policy John Weekes 7 The Cost of Trump’s Transactional Approach to Trade EDITOR Meredith Lilly L. Ian MacDonald 10 Managing Relations Under Trump Will be About More [email protected] than Just NAFTA ASSOCIATE EDITOR Mike Coates Lisa Van Dusen 12 Facing up to the Disruption of Trump [email protected] 14 Edward Greenspon CONTRIBUTING WRITERS The Triple-E Rebellion that Carried Trump to the White House Thomas S. Axworthy Frank Graves Andrew Balfour, Yaroslav Baran 17 Pollpocalypse? Not Again Derek H. Burney, Catherine Cano Rona Ambrose Margaret Clarke, Celine Cooper 20 We’re the Conservatives and We’re Here to Help Susan Delacourt, Daniel Gagnier, Martin Goldfarb, Patrick Gossage, 22 Morgane Richer La Fleche Frank Graves, Brad Lavigne, Letter from America: A Canadian Millennial View Kevin Lynch, Jeremy Kinsman, Guest Column / Nathan Cullen Andrew MacDougall Velma McColl, 24 Tailgating in Trump’s America David McLaughlin David Mitchell, Don Newman, Geoff Norquay, 25 George Haynal and Kevin Lynch Fen Osler Hampson, Robin V. Sears, Canada and Trump: A New Focus on Mitigating Risk Gil Troy, Anthony Wilson-Smith Jaime Watt 27 Geography has Made Us Neighbours. Now What? WEB DESIGN Nicolas Landry 30 Jeremy Kinsman [email protected] The Trump Tsunami Yaroslav Baran SOCIAL MEDIA EDITOR 33 Grace MacDonald Trump and the Erosion of the Western Consensus [email protected] Paul Frazer 36 Canada and the Ringmaster President GRAPHIC DESIGN & PRODUCTION Monica Thomas Robin V. Sears [email protected] 39 Chance and Change Column / Lisa Van Dusen Policy 42 Trump’s Doctrine of Unpredictability Policy is published six times annually Dan Woynillowicz and Merran Smith by LPAC Ltd. The contents are 43 Clean Energy in America: Too Good a Deal for Trump to Pass Up copyrighted, but may be reproduced Column / Don Newman with permission and attribution in 46 Sorry for Getting It Right print, and viewed free of charge at the Policy home page at www.policymagazine.ca. Canada and the World Printed and distributed by St. Joseph Richard Dicerni Communications, 1165 Kenaston 47 Jim Prentice: A Deputy Minister’s Appreciation Street, Ottawa, Ontario, K1A 1A4 Sam Sebastian Available in Air Canada Maple Leaf 50 Verbatim/Unlocking the Potential of Innovation Lounges across Canada, as well BOOK REVIEWS as VIA Rail Lounges in Montreal, Ottawa and Toronto. Review by Anthony Wilson-Smith 53 Distilled: A Memoir of Family, Seagram, Baseball and Philanthropy, Special thanks to our sponsors by Charles Bronfman with Howard Green and advertisers. 54 Review by Geoff Norquay Cover photo: Gage Skidmore Campaign Confessions: Tales from the War Rooms of Politics, by John Laschinger with Geoffrey Stevens

January/February 2017 2

From the Editor / L. Ian MacDonald Game Change elcome to our special issue much as state polls, aggregators and Putin, who stands to be the beneficia- on the U.S. presidential predictions that completely missed ry of Trump’s ambivalence on NATO, W election and what it means the mark. as well as changes to the world order for Canada. On January 20, when Conservative Leader Rona Ambrose that could prove irreversible. Robin Donald Trump becomes the 45th offers an opposition view on the in- Sears writes that Trump succeeded president of the United States, it will coming Trump administration’s po- as the candidate of change, but that mark the beginning of a new era, one tential to “massively impact Canada” chance also played a role, as is often of considerable political uncertainty. on the three big challenges of “taxes, the case in history. In a column, our What kind of man is Donald Trump? pipeline development and trade.” associate editor and former Sun Me- What are his strengths? In a Q&A, we In a “Letter from America”, Morgane dia Washington bureau chief Lisa put that question to former Prime Richer La Flèche writes of a fam- Van Dusen offers her take on how to Minister Brian Mulroney, a friend of ily Thanksgiving in Cleveland and make the radical bilateral adjustment Trump’s for more than a quarter cen- crowds in front of Trump Tower in from Obama to Trump. tury and his neighbour in Palm Beach. Manhattan. NDP MP Nathan Cullen From Clean Energy Canada, Dan “Basically,” Mulroney said, “what you spent the last 10 days of the cam- Woynillowicz and Merran Smith sug- see with Donald is what you get.” paign on the ground, from Louisiana gest that Trump, as a businessman, The former PM thinks that Trump to Ohio. “In the aftermath of the U.S. will be on board with the quantum and Justin Trudeau, with his acknowl- election, Canadians must avoid being growth of solar and other renewables. edged interpersonal skills, will hit it smug,” he writes. “We’re the country off. “I think Mr. Trudeau is going to of Rob Ford and a (proposed) barbaric To conclude our Trump cover pack- get along fine with Donald Trump,” practices snitch line, after all.” age, Don Newman reminds us that he accurately called the election in Sep- Mulroney told us. “I know both of ormer Clerk of the Privy Coun- tember Policy column but that a part them. I know their skills and some of cil Kevin Lynch and former of him wishes he’d been wrong. their attributes and their talents.” F Foreign Affairs ADM George Even before Trump won the election, Haynal write that in managing the n Canada and the World, long- Canada-U.S. relationship, “sophisti- there was no question that trade time senior bureaucrat Richard cated risk management needs to be would be on the bilateral agenda if he Dicerni offers an affectionate the order of the day as the Canadian prevailed. John Weekes, former Ca- I tribute to Jim Prentice. “He proved government pursues its policy objec- nadian chief negotiator in the NAFTA that politics can be an honourable tives.” From Washington, former Ca- talks, looks at Trump and trade issues. profession,” Dicerni writes. Meredith Lilly, Simon Reisman pro- nadian diplomat Paul Frazer writes of fessor at Carleton University, thinks the uncertainty of facing “a ringmas- In a Verbatim, Google Canada’s Sam Trump’s trade bark may be worse ter president who acts and speaks on Sebastian looks at Canada’s potential than his bite. But Mike Coates, global his own terms, and in his own time..” as an innovation nation. “In the next vice chair of Hill & Knowlton, points 10 to 20 years,” Sebastian predicts, Conservative strategist and CBC out that Trump’s outsider status fits “every Canadian company will be- political commentator Jaime Watt his style of disruptive leadership. come a technology company.” writes that Trudeau and Trump Public Policy Forum President Ed “have very different policy goals” but Finally, we offer reviews of two im- Greenspon looks at a perfect storm of “whether they like it or not, they will portant Canadian books. Anthony three Es—economics, education and be forced to work together on certain Wilson-Smith reviews Charles Bron- echo chambers—that propelled Trump key bilateral issues.” fman’s autobiography, Distilled, and to victory in the Electoral College. Contributing Writer Jeremy Kinsman marvels at his exceptionally rich How did the polls get the election so considers the impact of fake news life. And Geoff Norquay gives two wrong? EKOS President Frank Graves and concludes that the “internet uto- thumbs-up to John Laschinger and says that the problem wasn’t so much pia is over.” Yaroslav Baran writes Geoffrey Stevens for Campaign Con- the national polls, which were gen- that the other big winner in the elec- fessions, a memoir of a life in election erally within the margin of error, as tion was Russian President Vladimir war rooms.

Policy 3

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau with Mila and Brian Mulroney at the French Embassy where the former PM was awarded the Legion of Honour on December 6. Adam Scotti photo Q&A: A Conversation with Brian Mulroney on Donald Trump and Canada-U.S. Relations

Former Prime Minister Brian Mulroney has known Don- Policy: You’ve always said Canada-U.S. relations was the top file on a prime ald Trump for more than a quarter century. They own minister’s desk. homes near each other in Palm Beach, share numerous Brian Mulroney: That and national friends and business associates, and their wives, Mila unity. Mulroney and Melania Trump, have a habit of speaking Policy: Now we are looking at Don- to each other in Serbo-Croatian. Mr. Mulroney sat down ald Trump as the 45th president of the United States. You know Donald in his Montreal law office with Policy Editor L. Ian Mac- Trump. He is a friend of yours. What is Donald, his biographer and former speechwriter. he really like? Brian Mulroney: Basically, what you see with Donald is what you get. I

January/February 2017 4 look at him this way. I listen to other A legacy in politics is two things—it is bifurcated. people but I’ve known him for a long time. Not intimately, but I know him It’s your electoral results—you don’t get to be quite well and my reaction to a lot of president unless you can win elections. And then it is the the criticism of him is this: This is a substantive policy achievements. I mean what he has done guy who basically on his own built already has put him in the history books there. And now we an empire worth somewhere between five and 10 billion dollars, apparently. are going to see about the substance of his vision. He has five children who are wonderful, I know them all. None of them smoke, drink or take drugs. They are all hugely successful on their own. has done already has put him in the talents. I think that while, ideological- So, I figure if a guy can do that, he has history books there. And now we are ly, they can be worlds apart, there is something going for him and if you going to see about the substance of enough success in pursuing common add to that the fact that for the first his vision. objectives that I think they are going time in American history a guy came Just the slogan, when you think to find a lot to be happy about. in off the street with no elected expe- about it, Make American Great Again. Policy: For example, they both talk rience, no service as a military gen- Doesn’t that appeal to the visceral in- a lot about infrastructure. Is that eral, wins the nomination against 16 stincts of a lot of Americans who felt other candidates, and then wins the something they can sit down and that America had not treated them general election against a candidate talk about? well? They lost a lot and their kids had with Hillary Clinton’s brand recogni- Brian Mulroney: I think it will be fewer opportunities than they did. tion, he has a lot going for him, so I one of the things on the top of Presi- think he has a good run at this to be dent Trump’s agenda and, as I un- a successful president. derstand it, Prime Minister Trudeau I think Mr. Trudeau feels the same way about Canada. Policy: Do you think he can surprise is going to get along Look, we have a 5,000-mile border, to the upside? fine with Donald Trump. I so there’s lots of things we can do Brian Mulroney: Yes. I think that is know both of them. I know together. Highways start up here and what is going to happen. their skills and some of their run down there. Electricity starts up here and runs down there and trade Policy: What are his strengths, when attributes and their talents. goes across bridges that we can build you look at his career? I think that while, or not—if we want to enhance the Brian Mulroney: Well, his strengths ideologically, they can be value of free trade, we build more and are—clearly, he had a vision of where render them all much more efficient he wanted to be and where he wanted worlds apart, there is enough success in pursuing and increase our productivity and the to take his company and he built quite nation gets wealthier. a successful empire. Very few people common objectives that I could have done that on their own. think they are going to find Policy: Trump is in favour of building the Keystone pipeline but he has Now mind you he had help from his a lot to be happy about. dad when he started but he is not the said he wants 25 per cent of the prof- first to have had that. And he built it its of the deal for the U.S. I’m not sure and he then took a look at the politics we know where he’s going with that of it and he decided he could run as a or what he means by it. Republican and he had the guts and Policy: How important are interper- Brian Mulroney: That’ll be in the the courage to get out there and take sonal relationships with this guy and negotiations. a terrible pounding. A terrible pound- do you see an opportunity there for Policy: But that’s a $10 billon dollar ing, for a year and a half. And yet he Justin Trudeau to get acquainted with outfoxed them all with his skill and project, with thousands of construc- him, because Prime Minister Trudeau the new media. How he did that was tion jobs in the U.S. obviously has, and you’ve noticed this brilliant. And he’s entered the history Brian Mulroney: Yes, Keystone is yourself, good interpersonal skills? books big time. A legacy in politics is a big deal and it’s going to be done two things—it is bifurcated. It’s your Brian Mulroney: Yes, he does. I by the Republicans. It’s interesting. electoral results—you don’t get to be think Mr. Trudeau is going to get Canadians have a view that they are president unless you can win elec- along fine with Donald Trump. I very favourable to the Democrats, tions. And then it is the substantive know both of them. I know their skills but if they look over history, their policy achievements. I mean what he and some of their attributes and their best friends are the Republicans. I’m

Policy 5 not saying that in a partisan way—it is just the way it is. So Justin may find that he can get a lot more done with a Republican president then he ever could with a Democrat. Because if you look at the Democrats, the constituency of a Democratic president—from the left wing to the trade unions to the interest groups—they make it difficult for a Democratic president to respond to the call of the northern neighbour. Trump will be able to do it.

If you look at the Democrats, the constituency of a Democratic president—from the left wing to the trade unions to the interest groups—they make it difficult for a Democratic president to respond to the call of the northern neighbour. Trump will be able to do it.

Policy: And Mr. Trudeau is dealing with someone on the way in, not the way out. Brian Mulroney: Yes, Trump will have four or eight years there. Canada’s 23rd and 18th prime ministers in a quiet moment at the French Embassy residence. “I think Mr. Trudeau is going to get along fine with Donald Trump,” Mulroney says. Policy: When you talk about the eco- Adam Scotti photo nomic relationship between us, do border, rapists and this kind of stuff, Policy: Well, to give you the num- you think Mr. Trump will be aware but that was a generalization of the bers, and you know them well, in that nine million American jobs de- feelings that a lot of Americans have pend on trade with Canada? 2015 Canada exported $397 billion about losing their identity because of merchandise trade to the US and Brian Mulroney: I don’t think he is their borders are uncontrolled. Every imported $363 billion for a grand to- aware now but he will be aware very nation is entitled to control its bor- tal of $660 billion dollars of bilateral soon. He’s a very smart guy. ders and let’s face it, that southern trade last year. And that doesn’t count border down there is a sieve, and so Policy: In Governor Pence’s home trade in services such as consulting he captured the full force of that way state of Indiana alone, there are and financial services, or Canada-U.S. of thinking in the United States and a 190,000 jobs depending on trade foreign direct investment, FDI. result of, and a big victory for himself with Canada. in the electoral college. But I think Brian Mulroney: And if you put Brian Mulroney: That’s right. I that when he takes a look at it that it all together at the end of the day, think that a lot of his talk about NAF- he is going to see the Mexican trade America has a modest balance, a fa- TA was directed towards Mexico, as situation is not as bad as he painted vourable balance with us. Which is you know. When he talks NAFTA he’s it. And the Canadian trade situation what you want in a free trade agree- also talking immigration. He referred is almost in perfect balance. This is an ment. You want it to be fair at the to the immigrants coming across the ideal result. end of the year.

January/February 2017 6 Policy: Do you think he knows the We have a deal with the Americans whereby we said importance, or maybe will be briefed up by the time he takes office, of the that if something happens that affects Canada in a energy relationship between Canada material way through something like NAFTA or elsewhere and the U.S., that we provide 100 that the insurance policy is that we have in the deal is that percent of their imported electricity, the Canada-U.S. Free Trade Agreement kicks back in. We’ve 85 percent of their imported natural gas, and 43 percent of their import- got a free trade agreement no matter what happens with ed oil? NAFTA, so we were always concerned. Brian Mulroney: He knows that. He is a pretty sharp guy. He under- stands all that. Where he may have to get more sophisticated briefings is on the nuances of international trade Brian Mulroney: Still doing the work, has changed since then. and their implications. The extent to same thing. which our economies, our corporate Policy: Is it fair to say the TPP is lives are commingled and the way it Policy: And it is driven more by the dead? works now there are bits and pieces industries than by the countries. Brian Mulroney: Yes, I said that from the three countries working to- Brian Mulroney: Right, and one some time ago because of the mood gether to make a product and send it of the things that it is driven by is in the American Congress is such, to another country. the fact is that in Canada the Crown you know, today that you couldn’t get anything past there. And some- Policy: I wonder if you foresaw these owns the land on which the trees times when I have nothing to do I outcomes back in October 1987 when grow, whereas in the United States think about the “what ifs” of history. you made the Canada-U.S. free trade it’s different. It’s the private compa- deal with Ronald Reagan. nies that own it. So they say, they And one of them is what if we had argue that all of this constitutes a di- been defeated in 1988 in that election Brian Mulroney: We thought, I rect subsidy and therefore the prod- campaign and the Liberals had come think if you check you will see that uct that is placed in America coming in and cancelled the Canada-U.S. Free we were concerned as well about from a Canadian forest is in some Trade Agreement. So we would be sit- something happening in the future. ways illegitimate. ting here today with no Canada-U.S. So we have a deal with the Ameri- Free Trade Agreement, no NAFTA and cans whereby we said that if some- Policy: And we have the same thing thing happens that affects Canada in no GST. So at some point in time you with COOL—country of origin label- a material way through something would begin to atrophy and then ling on meat. like NAFTA or elsewhere that the somebody would say, look we better insurance policy is that we have in Brian Mulroney: Same thing. In get going here. Let’s go down and tell the deal is that the Canada-U.S. Free fact, country of origin labelling is the Americans that we want a free Trade Agreement kicks back in. We’ve going to be pursued, I think, by the trade agreement and you would go got a free trade agreement no matter Americans in pretty well everything, down there in those circumstances what happens with NAFTA, so we NAFTA, the end of TPP, any deals and tell them that and they would were always concerned. Not alarmed, they might do. tell you to go fly a kite. we were concerned that something might happen in the future and we Policy: The Prime Minister and our President Clinton used to say that knew that the backbone of our finan- ambassador to the U.S., David Mac- leadership is sometimes looking cial success and our economic success Naughton, have both said that if the around the corner of history, a lit- as a nation was going to be trade with Trump administration and the Amer- tle bit. That’s what we did with free the United States. icans want to re-open NAFTA, they’re trade. prepared to have a conversation. A Q&A at Brian Mulroney’s Montreal Policy: There are always hardy pe- What are your thoughts on that? law office, December 5, 2016. rennials like softwood lumber kick- ing around. I remember that you Brian Mulroney: These trade agree- said back then that you excluded ments, the FTA and the NAFTA, have softwood lumber from the Free Trade been in effect for nearly 30 and 25 Agreement because all of the Pacific years. There’s nothing wrong with Northwest U.S. senators would have taking a look at refreshing and refur- blocked it, and here we are all these bishing them. When we did them, years later still talking about soft- there was no internet. That’s how wood lumber. much the world, and the way we

Policy 7 The Cost of Trump’s Transactional Approach to Trade John Weekes

The postwar, U.S.-led global trading system, along with trade deals that bring jobs and industry back onto American shores.” the Bretton Woods institutions, has formed the economic The U.S. retreat from the leading role backbone of the liberal world order of the past half-centu- in shaping the global trade order will ry. While the World Trade Organization went through a be seized on by China as an opportunity to pick up the U.S. mantle and decade of melodrama as the early target of anti-globaliza- work to fashion the trading system to tion sentiment that has resurfaced politically in the past suit its interests, but not those of oth- year, multilateral trade deals have made a comeback in er countries like Canada that want a system based on the rule of law. the form of the now-precarious Trans-Pacific Partnership and the WTO’s Trade Facilitation Agreement, among oth- The leadership of the ers. With an anti-multilateralism president preparing to majority Republican occupy the White House and China eager to take over the Party in Congress clearly leadership role from the U.S., what should Canada do? values trade agreements, as does the business community. These forces will help shape the Trump ince the Second World War, and then the World Trade Organiza- administration’s approach the United States has been the tion (WTO)—have been crafted in a to trade agreements and S leading power in fashioning way that borrows in important ways the structure of the global trading from American domestic experience negotiations. system. The system has been extraor- with the rule of law. For the U.S. this dinarily successful in growing trade has been a very successful endeavour. and keeping markets open. It has While other countries have at times provided a framework of predictable complained about the key role of the As has been noted, there is a big dif- rules under which the private sector U.S., they acknowledge it has also ference between campaigning and in various countries has been able to been beneficial for the world. governing. Trade policy and negotia- invest with confidence. Throughout It is astonishing, therefore, that the tions are the prerogative of Congress this period, trade liberalization has U.S. now has an incoming president under the Constitution. Congress has been a major contributor to global who seems to find these American- delegated authority to the president growth, bringing hundreds of mil- inspired agreements problematic and to negotiate trade agreements subject lions of people out of poverty. The appears to prefer proceeding on the to the objectives and explicit condi- system has also reduced trade ten- base of a series individual deals. But tions set out in that law. The most sions between countries and helped this seems to be how he wants to pro- recent delegation of authority was in to preserve world peace. ceed domestically as well, as we have the Bipartisan Congressional Trade The most important feature of the seen with his recent intervention Priorities and Accountability Act of system is that it is rules-based. The vi- with Carrier. On November 21, Don- 2015. Among other things, this law sion of a framework of international ald Trump provided a video “update requires the president in negotiat- trade law to keep markets open was on the transition and our policy plans ing trade agreements to work closely pursued effectively by leading Ameri- for the first 100 days” in which he an- with Congress and legally mandated can statesmen such as Cordell Hull, nounced that on day one he is “going private sector advisory committees. President Franklin D. Roosevelt’s sec- to issue our notification of intent to The leadership of the majority Re- retary of state. The resulting agree- withdraw” from the TPP (Trans-Pacif- publican Party in Congress clearly ments—first under the General Agree- ic Partnership). “Instead,” he contin- values trade agreements, as does the ment on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) ued, “we will negotiate fair, bilateral business community. These forces

January/February 2017 8 will help shape the Trump admin- American preparations will move • Telecommunications investment istration’s approach to trade agree- into a detailed phase to ensure that restrictions ments and negotiations. all significant American interests are • Canadian content in broadcasting properly taken into account. At that aken at face value, Trump’s point, the sort of issues identified • Investment barriers approach to trade negotiations in the 2016 National Trade Estimate T is not good news for Canada. Report on Foreign Trade Barriers will So while the North During the campaign, in his “contract come into play. This report required American focus of with the American voter”, Donald by law is produced annually by the Trump stated that, as the first of “seven Office of the United States Trade Rep- the incoming administration actions to protect American workers”, resentative. It provides “an inventory has been on Mexico, there is he would “announce my intention to of the most important foreign bar- a substantial agenda with renegotiate NAFTA or withdraw from riers affecting U.S. exports of goods the deal under Article 2205.” Howev- and services, foreign direct invest- Canada that American er, given the factors described above, ment by U.S. persons, and protection negotiators could bring to it may well be some months before we of intellectual property rights”. For the table. know what the actual approach of the Canada, the 2016 list includes such new administration will be. measures as: For the time being, my advice to the • Canada’s agricultural supply Canadian government would be to management system for dairy ther matters might also be keep its head down but initiate inter- and poultry on the table in a NAFTA re- nal preparations for a possible rene- • Restrictions on U.S. grain exports O negotiation, particularly if it gotiation of NAFTA. A key factor to is the first negotiation for the new ad- • The personal duty exemption bear in mind is that the starting point ministration. Think for instance about • Restrictions on the sale of wine, for Trump and his close advisers is the absurd claim by Trump and Wil- beer and spirits making “deals” that favour Ameri- bur Ross, his nominee as commerce cans and “balance” trade rather than • Support for the aerospace sector, secretary, that in the hands of a for- seeking a framework of rules that al- including Quebec support for eign government a VAT operates as lows all to compete on the basis of Bombardier a subsidy to exports and as barrier to the same agreed rules. This is not an • Intellectual property rights environment conducive to a good re- imports. Would this bizarre thinking protection (including copyright apply as well to the GST and the HST? sult for Canada or any other country. and the patent utility If the administration decides to go requirements for pharmaceuticals So while the North American focus ahead and formally propose the ini- that the Canadian courts have of the incoming administration has tiation of a renegotiation of NAFTA, adopted) been on Mexico, there is a substantial

Figure 1: U.S. and Canada Trade in Goods has Increased Threefold Since 1990

700

600 Imports 500 +Exports Total Trade 400 Imports from Canada

300

200 BILLIONS OF U.S. DOLLARS Exports to Canada 100

0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2013

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Policy 9 agenda with Canada that American more useful to Canadian business business community is strongly in negotiators could bring to the table. in a more protectionist U.S. trade favour. Japan is continuing to urge We need to develop an equivalent environment where deal making the U.S. to ratify and it seems likely agenda that Canadian negotiators may trump a framework of laws securing a TPP deal with the U.S. will could put on the table. The govern- and regulations. remain Japan’s top trade policy prior- ment should assign this a high pri- • Unlike the FTA, NAFTA has an ef- ity for some time. ority. The government should also fective provision to protect Canadi- In this situation the Canadian gov- establish improved machinery for an exporters from being sideswiped ernment should: consulting effectively with the pri- in a general U.S. safeguard action • Determine soon what its position is vate sector as well as work closely against injurious imports from all on the TPP, and assuming it is in countries when Canadian products with the provinces. favour are not part of the problem. As some commentators have recently • Work with Japan and domestic al- • The general intergovernmental dis- pointed out, if the NAFTA were to dis- lies in the U.S. to urge a reconsid- pute settlement procedures in the appear, the Canada-U.S. FTA would eration of the approach to the TPP FTA were strengthened in NAFTA. come back into force and, therefore, by the Trump team. losing NAFTA would be no big deal for Clearly, as part of its policy prepa- In addition, Canada should: Canada. This is a very simplistic view. rations, the Canadian government • Expedite the agreed exploratory The first impact would be an environ- should take a deeper look at just what discussions for a possible Canada- ment of considerable uncertainty. would be involved in going back to China FTA. What would happen to North Ameri- the FTA. This short analysis suggests can supply chains? What would be the outcome would not be good for • If it is clear TPP is dead, work with the actual effect on Canada-U.S. trade Canadian business. Japan to resume our bilateral free of replacing NAFTA provisions, now trade negotiations with a view to In addition, the Canadian govern- an early conclusion. in force for nearly a quarter of a cen- ment should be identifying areas • Propose the negotiation of a free tury, with the less comprehensive FTA where we might share common trade agreement with the ASEAN ones? And if the U.S. wanted to pur- ground with the incoming adminis- countries (i.e. Brunei Darussalam, sue an agenda with Canada might it tration, e.g. energy pipelines. also threaten to invoke the six-month Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malay- termination clause in the FTA? And, very important, the government sia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singa- should be intensifying advocacy ef- pore, Thailand, and Vietnam). Here are a few of the specific prob- forts with potential allies inside the • Devote more resources to realizing lems Canada would encounter in re- U.S.. In pursuing this objective the turning to the FTA: the APEC heads of government ob- government should work with the jective of a broad free trade agree- • A major FTA achievement, the bi- provinces, cities, business, and civil ment of the Asia Pacific region (FTA- national panel system for address- society making this a true national AP), which would include China. ing antidumping and countervail- effort. We have a very good story to • Reconsider seeking to be part of the ing disputes, expired under the work with that includes the following: FTA after 7 years. It was made per- China led Regional Comprehen- manent under NAFTA. This much- • Canada is the U.S.’s largest cus- sive Economic Partnership (RCEP) touted mechanism would no lon- tomer, purchasing US $338 billion negotiations provided we conclude ger exist. It would not be replaced; in goods and services in 2015. that the emerging agreement is of a the Americans never liked it. • Canada is the top export sufficiently high quality. • Going back to the less precise FTA destination for 35 states. Working with the Trump administra- rules of origin would risk return- • Canada buys more from the tion on the trade front will be chal- ing to FTA era disputes (Honda, United States than does any other lenging. One thing seems highly GM-Cami) about whether certain nation—including all 28 countries likely; the policies of the next admin- Canadian made products qualified of the European Union combined. istration will be largely determined for FTA treatment. by Donald Trump himself. It follows • Losing the strong NAFTA frame- ow is the time to be under- that the relationship at the top be- work of rules for trade in services lining these points with tween Trump and the Prime Minis- and investment under which com- N Americans while they are ter will be critical for Canada. Prime panies have expanded and invest- still determining what the approach Minister Trudeau should accord a ed for over 20 years would pose se- of the new administration will be. very high priority to building an effective relationship. rious uncertainties for established The TPP would offer significant ben- business relationships. efits to Canada including some useful John Weekes was Canada’s chief • Some have questioned the utility updating of the NAFTA. Trump seems negotiator in the NAFTA trade talks of keeping the investor state dis- to have abandoned TPP but the Con- with the U.S. and Mexico. He is now pute settlement provisions of NAF- gressional leadership is urging him to Senior Business Adviser at Bennett TA. They may be about to become reconsider and most of the American Jones LLP. [email protected]

January/February 2017 10 Managing Relations Under Trump Will be About More than Just NAFTA Meredith Lilly

Canada’s trade relationship and economic integration materials which are then turned into value-added products on American with the United States are such that a new occupant in soil using American labour and in- the White House can only bring so much change so fast. novation. In short, the Canada-U.S. trade relationship is a positive one, Based on what we’ve heard so far, Trump will be focused and the few irritants that exist are on other files, and to the extent that he does have an small potatoes compared to Trump’s agenda with Canada, it can be managed, writes former grievances with America’s other major trade partners. Foreign Affairs and International Trade Adviser to the But even in a business-as-usual sce- Prime Minister Meredith Lilly. nario for Canada-U.S. trade, our two countries will experience occasional bumps and irritants that require attention. This is normal and has hap- ince his election as U.S. presi- It’s entirely plausible that Canada pened under every American admin- dent, Donald Trump the Can- will maintain its ongoing and posi- istration since NAFTA was signed. To didate—full of firebrand op- tive trade relationship with the U.S. S this end, unless a miracle brings a last- position to the North American Free with little interruption. In such a sce- ditch deal from Obama on softwood Trade Agreement (NAFTA)—has ad- nario, the incoming U.S. administra- lumber, that file will continue to be opted a more restrained approach, re- tion will heed the advice of business difficult for Canada under Trump’s ferring to NAFTA with less frequency leaders and the many experienced administration. Without a united Ca- and passion each passing day. Republicans in Congress who know nadian position for our negotiators that nine million American jobs de- It would be naive to think that Trump to defend, the risks are very high that pend on trade and investment with will shift his focus away from NAFTA the U.S. will introduce countervailing Canada. Trump and his team will entirely upon assuming office, but duties in the spring. imagining nihilistic scenarios for the also listen to the 35 state governors Canada-U.S. trade relationship would (including his vice-president Mike hould Trump reveal a more pro- be equally foolish. Wilbur Ross, Pence of Indiana) who list Canada as active stance toward North Trump’s pick for Commerce Secretary, their number one export destination. American trade partners once in Besides, given Canada’s very high la- S co-authored a paper in September on power, he could take some moderate Trump’s economic plan: it referenced bour and energy costs, Trump already action to address American trade irri- China 33 times, Mexico 10, NAFTA knows that Canada is not an offshor- tants—primarily with Mexico and to four, and Canada exactly once. Imag- ing destination for U.S. jobs. a lesser extent with Canada. But with- ining that trade with Canada is in In overall trade figures, the incom- out a named U.S. Trade Representa- Trump’s crosshairs would then sug- ing administration may be concerned tive, it is difficult to anticipate what gest an unhealthy Canadian egotism that the U.S. has at times run a small the new administration will target about our relative importance to the trade deficit with Canada (this was and whether NAFTA would even be American consciousness. Rather, the the subject of Ross’s single reference the avenue chosen to confront those next U.S. president’s export plan will to Canada in the above-mentioned irritants. The problem with Canada rely on effective trade relationships document). But closer scrutiny of our offering its pre-emptive willingness with countries such as Canada, and bilateral trade flows would reveal that to improve NAFTA in such a con- we would do well to focus on realistic any U.S. trade deficit with Canada has text revolves around this uncertainty issues that Trump could pursue with been attributable to Canadian oil and about possible U.S. demands and the Canada’s leadership to further those gas exports to the U.S. In fact, many low likelihood that they will also re- goals. Canadian exports to the U.S. are raw flect Canada’s interests.

Policy 11 For example, while Canada would has been set at $20 since the 1980s inally, it needs to be pointed like to modernize the list of profes- and long before the days of online out that the largest economic sions that qualify for temporary entry shopping. Canada’s level is among F risks to Canada arising from to the U.S. to reflect today’s labour the lowest in the world, well behind Trump’s election victory don’t fall market, the U.S. didn’t deliver this Mexico ($50) and the U.S. ($800). under NAFTA at all. Instead, Trump’s under Barack Obama in the Trans- The U.S. has long encouraged Canada corporate tax reform plans represent Pacific Partnership (TPP). To think to increase our threshold, due to the a serious risk to Canada because—un- that Trump would be more motivat- disincentives created for American ex- like a wholesale renegotiation of NAF- ed than his predecessor to improve porters of online goods to Canada. TA—they are achievable in the short- labour mobility for foreign workers Canadian consumers and many Ca- term and have the broad support of coming to the U.S. seems unrealistic. nadian businesses want a higher de Republicans in Congress. When com- In other areas where Canada would minimis level to reduce costs and bined with one-off deals to attract and like to see gains such as government retain business in the U.S. such as the procurement, the new U.S. admin- shipping hassles, notwithstanding objections by Canadian retail stores one Trump negotiated with Carrier, istration can instead be expected to the Republican tax reform plan could insert Buy America provisions into who could be disadvantaged by such a change. On top of that, according render Canada a very uncompetitive its new infrastructure spending plans destination for investment. that would exclude Canadian busi- to a recent industry-sponsored study nesses entirely. (externally reviewed by the CD Howe The other area where Canadian ex- Institute), raising Canada’s de mini- porters could experience a serious Contrary to some speculation, it is mis level to $200 would be cost-saving side-swipe is over border security. doubtful that Trump will seek to lib- for the Canadian government, as the While Canada has no reason to be- eralize Canada’s dairy market, even tax revenues collected on these small lieve the U.S. will deliberately target its though it would please northern online purchases are insufficient to northern border, there is a real danger U.S. dairy farmers who contributed cover the associated border shipping that we could be accidentally caught to Trump’s electoral success. This is inspection costs. up in a broader U.S. border security because the American dairy industry agenda. Just as Canada’s leaders had benefits from its own protectionist to do post-9/11, it will again be vital policies, which would be vulnerable to demonstrate to the new American if this area of NAFTA were opened up. To demonstrate early president that Canada is not an entry In addition, the U.S. sugar industry is success on NAFTA, point for illegal travellers, drugs, or heavily protected and excluded from weapons into the U.S. and that Cana- NAFTA, something Canada’s sugar Trump should instead focus da is a steadfast partner in U.S. efforts industry would like to reverse. Can- on areas where all three to ensure the safety and security of all ada would have its own cards to play countries could agree. One North Americans. Failure to be both in any negotiation on agricultural such area may be access, so unless Trump is looking to proactive and vigilant about this will loosen protectionism in U.S. agricul- e-commerce, which was result in border thickening, which will ture as well, he would be wise to look never negotiated in NAFTA’s in turn jeopardize some portion of the for easier gains elsewhere. original pre-digital universe. $700 billion in annual bilateral trade between our two countries. To demonstrate early success on NAF- If the TPP is shelved as TA, Trump should instead focus on promised, it would be Canadians have every reason to believe that we will continue to have a areas where all three countries could sensible for Canada. agree. One such area may be e-com- positive economic relationship with merce, which was never negotiated the U.S. under Donald Trump. But our in NAFTA’s original pre-digital uni- bilateral trading success has always verse. If the TPP is shelved as prom- required care and diligence, and 2017 ised, it would be sensible for Canada, This small example highlights just will be no exception. By promoting the U.S., and Mexico to adapt TPP’s one way in which constructive prog- our common security and economic e-commerce chapter to the NAFTA ress can be made on North American goals, Prime Minister Trudeau can context. If that occurred, it would trade issues to benefit all three coun- play a big part in setting the relation- also be unsurprising if the U.S. goes tries. While not the stuff of attention- ship with President Trump on a posi- after Canada’s very low de minimis grabbing headlines that a wholesale tive path forward. level, something that falls outside of renegotiation of NAFTA might offer, Meredith Lilly (PhD) is an Associate NAFTA but is closely linked to trade simple policy solutions such as this Professor at Carleton University where in e-commerce. one could give Trump a quick, clean she holds the Simon Reisman Chair Canada’s de minimis, the threshold for victory as he seeks to reduce barriers in International Affairs. applying duties and taxes on imports, to American exports. meredithlilly@[email protected]

January/February 2017 12 Facing up to the Disruption of Trump Mike Coates

The election of Donald Trump as president of the United to achieve energy self-security and has promised to lift burdensome regula- States has Canadian officials and diplomats scrambling tions that restrict oil and gas drilling for a new bilateral roadmap. But, as Hill + Knowlton and the production of electricity by Global Vice Chair Michael Coates writes, “In his book burning coal. Meanwhile, Trudeau is close to reaching an agreement with The Art of the Deal Trump talks about using diversions the provinces on a green tax that will as a negotiating tactic, where initial offers are not final now make Canadian energy costs uncompetitive with those in the U.S. but rather starting points to signal a serious intent to make Fourth, while both leaders see in- a deal. Many analysts are now speculating that Trump’s frastructure as the key to growth, bark may we worse than his bite.” Trump’s spending plan could crowd out investor interest in Canadian projects. Furthermore, the initial reaction to Canada’s proposed infrastructure bank suggests Trudeau will have a big he most successful leaders in about serious human rights issues. job on his hands to educate Canadians today’s business world are oft- Trump implicitly and explicitly chal- on the value of public-private partner- en the most disruptive. Now, T lenges these assumptions. He had al- ships. Public acceptance of public- after shock results in Britain’s Brexit ready signaled his suspicion of multi- referendum and the U.S. presidential private partnerships is an important lateral trade agreements by promising election, it looks like the same trend hurdle investors in U.S. projects won’t to tear up the Trans Pacific Partner- holds for politicians, too. have to deal with, as Americans are al- ship deal among 12 Pacific nations, ready accustomed to paying road tolls, The biggest shock with the largest including Canada, and to renegotiate operating private airports and general- global impact—in particular on Can- the North American Free Trade Agree- ly sharing risks with the private sector. ada—was caused by Donald Trump, ment. The Republican Party has in- Fifth, Trudeau and Trump are in two the epitome of disruption, who broke creasingly marginalized the UN as a different worlds on immigration. every political convention in the book serious part of the U.S. foreign policy While Trump wants to secure borders to win the presidency in convincing agenda, something Trump is unlikely and eject illegal immigrants, Trudeau fashion, while the Republicans won to challenge. both houses of Congress. This outsid- wants to expand Canada’s immigrant er to politics will now be able to try Second, Canada will lose its corporate and refugee program, already much to implement his declared, disruptive tax advantage over the United States. larger than the U.S. one on a per-cap- political agenda—and in the process Congress has already signaled its will- ita basis. Canada stands to benefit in- throw a serious curveball at Justin ingness to legislate major corporate ternationally by being seen abroad as Trudeau’s own political agenda. tax reductions in the range of 15-20 a welcoming and attractive place for per cent, as well a one-time 10-per- immigrants, but this runs directly into First, Canadian foreign policy assump- cent corporate tax on profits repatri- conflict with Trump’s views on immi- tions around multilateralism will be ated to the U.S. from other markets. gration, especially in light of U.S. secu- challenged. Trudeau’s foreign policy is These policies not only will keep busi- rity concerns about more than 30,000 rooted in many of the same tenets as ness in America but will attract foreign Syrian refugees brought into Canada his father’s was: Canada’s interests are investment that might otherwise have in the last year. It doesn’t take much enhanced though multilateral agree- been bound for Canada. imagination to envisage an impetuous ments; the United Nations is the only reaction from President Trump if any legitimate sanction for use of force; Third, Canadian energy and environ- refugee admitted to Canada turns out Canadian trade must diversify beyond mental policies are now misaligned America; relations with communist with those of the U.S. There will be to be a terrorist. countries like China and Cuba must no more talk of a North American Sixth, Canada meets the definition be improved regardless of concerns Clean Air Act. Trump is determined of the defence freeloader. The NATO

Policy 13 standard for defence spending is two campaign platform—including Tom doing that at about the same time per cent of a country’s GDP; Canada’s Price in Health, Wilber Ross in Com- Trump’s corporate tax changes spending is less than one per cent. So merce and Scott Pruitt to head up the will be coming into effect. Canada far, Trump hasn’t singled out Canada Environmental Protection Agency— could consider reducing its corpo- (unlike some European countries, will shake up their departments with rate tax further to keep the carbon South Korea and Japan), but President agendas such as ending Obamacare, price tax-neutral. Obama did gently raise this in June reopening NAFTA and rolling back 3. We should immediately identify during his visit to Ottawa. The issue is EPA regulations. infrastructure projects along Can- bound to come up. Clearly, while there are still those who ada’s borders—such as pipelines, ports, the Seaway—where the mu- re we overreacting to Trump? don’t take Trump seriously, the evi- tual interests of Canada and the In his book The Art of the Deal dence is mounting that he is hell-bent United States are aligned so we can Trump talks about using on executing his platform and may table these during the first meeting A have greater flexibility to do that than diversions as a negotiating tactic, we have with Trump. where initial offers are not final but previous administrations have had. 4. We must reconsider our military rather starting points to signal a se- The tendency for Canadian officials priorities. We need to be prepared rious intent to make a deal. Many will be to urge caution and wait for to help the United States in regions analysts are now speculating that the US to act before initiating engage- of the world where it needs the Trump’s bark may we worse than his ment. Their standard operating po- help the most. While Iraq is out of bite. Moreover, many point out that sition will be to plan, create options the question, Syria is not. We are the checks and balances built into the and prepare. This position is exactly there now and should consider U.S. constitution will serve to miti- what disruptors thrive on and that whether to beef up this contribu- gate the most aggressive of Trump’s competition that relies on the status tion and take our fight to ISIS. policies. But against this convention- quo almost always slips behind. al wisdom are three important factors The tendency for Canadian officials that may make Trump more effective will be to urge caution and wait for in implementing his ideas. the US to act before initiating engage- First of all, Trump is not beholden Trump’s electoral ment. Their standard operating posi- to anyone financially for his victory. success had more to tion will be to plan, create options and prepare. After all, the United States He self-financed most of his primary do with Trump than with the campaign and relied heavily on aver- has many things on its plate and it age Americans to fund his presiden- Republican Party. He won in could be months or even years before tial race. This no-strings-attached traditional Republican states any Canadian government needs to presidency gives him remarkable and broke through in commit to policy actions in response to the Trump administration. flexibility, as evidenced by his will- traditional Democratic states ingness to take on traditional politi- Anyone watching events unfold in cal donors such as Boeing, Ford and in the Rust Belt, fighting the business these days, particularly those United Technologies. Republication establishment of us in the communications industry,

Secondly, Trump’s electoral success every step of the way. will know that this standard operat- had more to do with Trump than with ing position is exactly what disrup- the Republican Party. He won in tra- tors thrive on and that competition ditional Republican states and broke that relies on the status quo almost through in traditional Democratic always slips behind. The Trump phe- states in the Rust Belt, fighting the Re- nomenon is part of a worldwide trend publication establishment every step to take back authority at the local and o how should Canada respond? of the way. Trump’s supporters rep- S nation-state level and to try to man- resent a movement loyal to him, not From a policy perspective, this might age the tectonic changes in our soci- the party, which gives him powerful suggest that Canada address some of ety without leaving it to multilateral leverage over his own caucus when the Trump curve balls in the follow- institutions and treaties. they don’t play along with his agenda. ing fashion: Justin Trudeau and his “sunny ways” And thirdly, it is instructive to note 1. Focus our trade negotiators on a government will have to adjust to that selected cabinet members seem to new NAFTA arrangement and put this trend if they hope to mitigate the conform to his command-and-control everything else on the back burner Trump effect. view of the world, with at least three until we have prepared for the en- Mike Coates recently returned to Ottawa military men in his cabinet plus Gen- gagement that is about to come. from New York where he was CEO of the eral Michael Flynn as National Securi- 2. While the Canadian government’s Americas for H+K Strategies, and is now ty Adviser. Other secretaries who were recent clean air policy contem- global vice chair of the firm. committed to the policies in Trump’s plates green taxes by 2018, we’ll be [email protected]

January/February 2017 14

Donald Trump on the campaign trail. He swept the white, working class demographic, and benefited from a media “echo chamber” that “systematically underestimated Trump support.” Wikipedia photo The Triple-E Rebellion that Carried Trump to the White House Edward Greenspon

While November 8, 2016 will go down in history as the ine days before Americans went to the polls, I moder- scene of a stunning upset, it should not have come as that N ated a debate in Toronto much of a surprise, writes veteran journalist and Public Pol- between former Vermont Demo- cratic Governor Howard Dean and icy Forum President Ed Greenspon. Donald Trump’s victory former Pennsylvania Republican over Hillary Clinton can be attributed to a perfect storm of Senator Rick Santorum, both once candidates for their party’s presiden- three Es: Economics, education and echo chambers. tial nominations. The event, sponsored by the Simon Wiesenthal Cen- ter, occurred on the weekend after FBI director James Comey released his controversial letter announcing the re-opening of the investigation into Hillary Clinton’s emails.

Policy 15 Dean, a normally temperate man, Other social groups have also been left behind by was agitated. At one point, he said if Trump won, 50 percent of Ameri- the economic upheavals and income disparities of cans were going to think they’d been the age of tech and globalization. But few have fallen so cheated. Santorum shot back that the far and been politically radicalized quite like non-college other 50 per cent already felt that way. educated white males. Such is the state of play in the republic to our south, a nation of consequence to the world because of its roaring historic success and of special of Americans live paycheque to Clerk Kevin Lynch and I wrote that es- consequence to Canada by virtue paycheque. While the unemploy- tablishment leaders like Hillary Clin- of geographic destiny. In recent de- ment rate fell steadily under Barack ton bore responsibility for chronical- cades, its democracy has become in- Obama, the broader measure of ly failing to find policies to address creasingly polluted by polarization, labour market force participation this group’s understandable sense of weakening the pluralistic notion that reached a 40-year low of 62.4 per exclusion and grievance. “Nationalis- you win some and lose some and ac- cent in September 2015, second- tic fervour is forever in wait for such cept both outcomes gracefully in the worst to Italy in the OECD. policy disappointment,” we wrote. knowledge the other side will do the White males with low education lev- Trump support correlates to race. same next time out. els are not the worst-off Americans by One exit poll on election night In the wake of the result, I think we any measure. But many have fallen showed the long-term trend line for can look to three factors, all starting out of the middle class and harbour the Democratic nominee in the 143 with the letter e: economics, educa- resentment at their loss of economic whitest counties in the U.S. had de- tion and echo chambers. and social standing alongside an anx- clined from 42 per cent in 2000 to 21 iety about diminished opportunities per cent in 2016. for their children. In the United States, But the drivers are more complex and more sociological. An August analysis two-thirds of hey are a wounded cohort, by Gallup economist Jonathan Roth- Americans live paycheque to with a shockingly long list of well, based on 87,000 interviews, led paycheque. While the social pathologies. In the T him to posit that rather than suffer- month before the election, Princeton unemployment rate fell ing disproportionately from econom- University labour economist Alan ic decline themselves, Trump sup- steadily under Barack Krueger published a paper called porters tended to come from places Obama, the broader measure Where Have All the Workers Gone? His where their neighbours endured the of labour market force research found that a large share of kinds of hardships described above American men between 25 and 54 participation reached a and the children of these communi- suffer from physical pain, sadness 40-year low of 62.4 per cent ties were trapped by low economic and stress in their daily lives. Near- mobility and few prospects. in September 2015, secondly half those not in the labour force worst to Italy in the OECD. take pain medication on a daily basis. Other social groups have also been “Prime age men who are out of the left behind by the economic upheav- labor market report that they experi- als and income disparities of the age ence notably low levels of emotional of tech and globalization. But few well-being throughout their days have fallen so far and been politically Economics’ Dead End Kids—In and that they derive relatively little radicalized quite like non-college ed- Canada, the relatively new term “in- meaning from their daily activities.” ucated white males. clusive growth” speaks to the need of policymakers in advanced econo- They are also highly prone to be the Education: Not Horatio Alger’s mies to think in terms of both how victims of gun deaths, particularly sui- America—For the wealthiest country to promote growth and how to make cides; they are heavy users of opioids; in the world, the United States has de- sure the fruits of growth, particularly they suffer high levels of obesity; their scended into a remarkably mediocre opportunity, are fairly distributed. life expectancy is actually shrinking. education system. Starting in grade school, insufficient attention has been Inclusion is not mere redistribution; That this heartbroken heartland vote paid to public education, reinforcing it’s also an attentiveness to any sys- went 67 to 28 per cent for Donald class-based divisions and locking in tematic exclusion and alienation of Trump shouldn’t be beyond com- advantage and disadvantage. elements of the population. prehension. In a September Globe In the United States, two-thirds and Mail op-ed, former Privy Council University graduates are less than one

January/February 2017 16 third of the population. The OECD more cerebral approach and the rise of least it was rooted in some interpre- has reported that U.S. graduation a Trump news media machine. “Edu- tation of reality. In the classic char- rates rank 19th out of 28 countries, cation levels have strong relationships acterization by political philosopher dropping from first in 1995. As other with media-consumption habits, John Milton “truth and falsehood countries put a heavy public policy which may have been instrumental could grapple.” But place them in emphasis on education, the U.S. po- in deciding people’s votes, especially separate echo chambers and they litical system somehow cannot mus- given the overall decline in trust in have no common space in which to ter. Moreover, educational mobility the news media,” Silver writes. wage a battle for hearts and minds. has also plummeted (so-called down- Echo Chambers: Polarization by All this has a corrosive effect on the ward mobility), which the OECD the people for the people—The 2016 commonweal. warned two years ago poses risks for presidential campaign marked the n sum, the economic pain that health, community engagement and first true social media election in the propelled the non-college edu- trust in governments, institutions United States. Facebook has quickly cated white male political rebel- and other people. grown into the dominant global pur- I lion of 2016 is legitimate and was veyor of news and it designs its algo- reinforced by years of policy neglect Whereas about half rithms to reinforce ‘likes’—or, if you by Republicans and Democrats alike, prefer, prejudices. Its decision in June of young people in ranging from lack of adjustment poli- to tweak its algorithm to feed users cies to a weakening public education OECD countries have at more news from friends and less from system to an elite affinity for the po- least matched their parents’ established media organizations un- litical and cultural worldview of the level of education, a larger surprisingly led to a lowering of stan- east and west coasts. dards of truth. number in the United We were forewarned many times States—29 percent of men Well before the election, the Pub- over. In 1994, former Republican lic Policy Forum was looking at the and 17 percent of strategist Kevin Phillips wrote a best- effects of echo chambers and filter seller called Boiling Point: Democrats, American women—actually bubbles for a study scheduled for Republicans and the Decline of Middle- have less education than release in late January 2017. Echo Class Prosperity. He characterized the their parents. chambers tend to be self-selecting; 1992 defeat of the first George Bush individuals choose to spend their as a product of middle class decline time watching Fox or visiting Breit- and suggested the attendant populist bart.com. Filter bubbles are more in- anger was not a one-time phenome- sidious in that, whether they might non. It would continue until prosper- Whereas about half of young peo- care or not, most Facebook users ity was restored under government ple in OECD countries have at least have no idea they are fed a narrow policies deemed to be fair. In their matched their parents’ level of educa- view of the world that does little to 2012 book “It’s the Middle Class, Stu- tion, a larger number in the United distinguish truth from fiction and pid!” Clinton acolyte James Carville States—29 percent of men and 17 even excludes dissonant friends. and Clinton pollster Stan Greenberg percent of American women—actu- Trump supporters weren’t the only echoed the same themes. ally have less education than their ones living in filter bubbles. So were The evolution of the internet gave parents. That’s more than 10 points the readers of the New York Times, worse than OECD averages. these marginalized political actors a Washington Post, Atlantic, Slate, Five- means to escape the elite consensus In his post-election analysis, FiveThir- ThirtyEight etc. They inhabited a lib- of the east coast establishment me- tyEight.com’s Nate Silver honed in eral filter bubble that systematically dia, discover one another and build a on education as the single most im- underestimated Trump support. movement off the base of their pain portant election variable. He calcu- More problematic still, the political and hostility. Factual truth took a lated that in the 50 highest-educated right, which had long ago abandoned beating, but the participants in the in- counties in the U.S., Clinton did bet- trust in established media, were ei- ternet insurrection apparently found ter than Obama did in 2012 by nine ther indifferent or unequipped to home truths for their self-narratives percentage points on average. But in separate fact from fiction within their of anger and abandonment. the 50 lowest-educated, she ran 11 filter bubbles. And so the age of fake Edward Greenspon is President and points behind Trump. By control- or post-factual news was born into a CEO of the Public Policy Forum and for- ling for income, he says this is how ready environment. mer Ottawa Bureau Chief and Editor- Trump won the election. The significance of the confluence of in-Chief of The Globe and Mail. This Silver also surmised that low educa- these developments cannot be over- article is adapted from a presentation tion levels rewarded Trump’s popu- emphasized. Fox News may never on the U.S. election on November 9, list appeals to emotion over Clinton’s have been fair and balanced, but at 2016. [email protected]

Policy 17

Donald Trump won, and the pollsters, or at least aggregators, were almost all wrong, a spectacular failure of election predictions. Flickr photo Pollpocalypse? Not Again Frank Graves

In the wake of Donald Trump’s unexpected election nited States presidential elec- victory, pollsters are again taking a beating for getting tions are the Super Bowl and U World Cup of polling. The it wrong. In the Brexit referendum, the last U.K. elec- stakes don’t get any higher and, in this tion and recent Canadian elections both federal and historic election, the consensus predictions based on the polling were a provincial, pollsters have been blamed for getting it near-certain Clinton win. In stunning wrong. EKOS President Frank Graves offers this expla- defiance of the weight of “scientific” probabilities, Donald Trump fashioned nation for what happened with the polls in the U.S. a pretty clear victory in the Electoral election campaign. College. Oopsie! Epic failure, once again on the part of the increasingly sketchy polling industry. But wait a minute; that may be a serious distortion of what really happened. In this non-technical review I am going to try and sort out what actually worked and what didn’t. Although the detailed post-mortems have yet to be concluded, it is actually pretty clear what went

January/February 2017 18 wrong and why. Apart from the ques- The U.S. election provides an even more vivid tion of whether the polls blew it, we need to look at some broader ques- illustration of the hazards of putting too much tions of what the polls told us about confidence in the aggregators’ forecasts. where society and politics are headed. The eruption of incredibly insightful and important analysis, much fuelled by the polls, has been of profound • Daily Kos, which predicted a is sound, then the aggregation of ag- value. We can now sort out much 92 per cent chance of a Clinton gregators should be even more pow- more clearly what happened and why victory erful. What could possibly go wrong? and it would never have been evident without polling. or years, I have watched the ag- If we aggregate the average probabilities of the six major US aggrega- gregators borrow our polls and 1. Polls can still accurately model tors that offered precise predictions put them into their aggregation populations F we would find a range from 71 to models. They draw their own conclu- 99 per cent with an aggregate aver- On the issue of the ostensible failure sions from others’ data without con- age probability of around 90 per cent of the polls, we argue that the depic- sulting—let alone paying—the firms likelihood of a Clinton victory. The tion of a massive pratfall on the part that collected the data. Summarizing pollsters may have had some short- of the pollsters is egregiously over- the averages and breakdowns of the comings but they pale against this wrought. There were some spectacu- polls is fine but many of the aggrega- epic failure. Clearly these predictions lar prediction errors, as there often tors go beyond this and apply predic- were egregiously wrong and the stat- will be when turnout is not high and tive models and seat forecasts, which ed probabilities were fiction, not sci- the preferences of non-voters are sys- are increasingly used by voters who ence. Worse (or better if you were a tematically different than those of may wish to vote strategically. those who showed up. We can still Trump supporter), it is highly likely In Canada, our record of seat forecasts model a known population (e.g., all that many weakly motivated Clin- at EKOS has consistently been better eligible voters) but we will continue ton voters stayed home on the spuri- than those of the aggregators despite to have difficulty guessing who will ous assumption that it didn’t matter the fact that they are drawn from a actually show up; the unknown whether they showed up. single polling company. In fact, at population of actual voters. The ag- So let’s cut the pollsters a break and the federal level, we have never had gregate polls suggested that Hillary pin this tail squarely on the donkey the winner of the contest wrong (as Clinton would win the popular vote that deserves it. I don’t mind defend- all of the aggregators did in the US). by about three points. She will win by ing and correcting errors that stem Our worst error was calling a strong two, so that’s pretty close. from our work. But I am getting really Conservative minority in 2011 (along tired of hearing about this huge poll- with everybody else). The surprising 2. The real problem was one of ing failure which, in this case, was majority reflected some of the same prediction manufactured by aggregators. Here prediction problems that plagued are a few suggestions for the future: The problem wasn’t the polls; it was the U.S. presidential forecasts. In a the aggregators and predictors. nutshell, when turnout is relatively • Be more modest in prediction These aggregators include: low, and there are systematic differ- claims and perhaps focus on summarizing the data that you • The New York Times, which ences between actual and non-voters, ‘borrow’ from those who actually predicted an 85 per cent chance of we are left with making conjecture. design, collect, and analyze a Clinton victory From my perspective, it is pretty clear that we aren’t very good at that when the data that you so artfully • FiveThirtyEight, which predicted those conditions exist. manipulate; and a 71 per cent chance of a Clinton victory The U.S. election provides an even • Let those voters who are deciding more vivid illustration of the haz- on whether and how to vote • The Huffington Post, which ards of putting too much confi- know that you often really don’t predicted a 98 per cent chance of dence in the aggregators’ forecasts. I know what is going to happen. a Clinton victory thought it only fair to aggregate the • PredictWise, which predicted an most influential aggregators and see 3. Polls measure voter intention, 89 per cent chance of a Clinton what the overall forecasts were. Their not voter behaviour victory logic (with some rationality) is that Let’s move on from the blame game • Princeton Election Consortium, the averages across various polls will and try and discern why the predic- which predicted a 99 per cent be more reliable than using a single tion errors and what the polling did chance of a Clinton victory source. So if the aggregation of polls reveal that was important and new.

Policy 19 Some have speculated that the prob- We have no unified theory of voter or fallen backward. Consistently, re- lem was, in large part, a measure- turnout and it isn’t on the horizon. We search in the UK and U.S. is pointing ment error. Another variation on face Hume’s problem of induction— to new dark forces that are linked to the ‘shy Tory’ concept. It may be the future doesn’t necessarily resemble economic stagnation and inequal- that the same institutional mistrust the past. Or as Yogi Berra more pithily ity, but express themselves in a dis- that was a driver of the Trump vote summarized, prediction is really hard, turbing rise of authoritarianism. In also caused those voters to not par- particularly about the future. the 1960s, Daniel Bell argued that ticipate in polls or park themselves the ordered versus open worldview in undecided. One of the firms that was displacing traditional left-right got it right found that asking wheth- Intriguing analyses tensions. That prediction may have er your neighbour was going to vote have connected both finally come true, but with a new infor Trump more accurately reflected Trump and Brexit to terdependence between these views his real strength. One possible flaw and the left-right spectrum. This co- in the shy Tory-type explanations is growing resentment and alesces to produce a highly uncertain there wasn’t much difference across anger due to middle class complex of unpredictable social and live interviewer and IVR/Online. So- decline and economic political forces. cial desirability (linked to shy Tory) should be much more evident with stagnation; resentment of Polling may not help us predict the live interviewer and it really wasn’t. the kids at the front of the future but it sure is helpful in understanding what is going on and how FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver suggests class who have fared fine we got here. it was a sampling error and there were while everyone else has simply not enough poorly educated stagnated or fallen There are four key conclusions to be males sampled. The IVR to landline backward. drawn from this analysis: surveys allowed Trafalgar to predict key swing states more accurately 1. Polling can still accurately model (possibly linked to this factor). populations (although there are new challenges and probably Personally, I believe the major flaw more sketchy polling today than was one of prediction, not polling. As in the past) Pew has shown recently, we are actu- 2. The last election polling in the ally doing a better job of modelling 4. This focus on prediction obscures United States wasn’t great but voters with probability samples than the real value of polling we were 10 years ago. The growing it wasn’t terrible. Polls don’t he exit polls (which solve skepticism of the media and pundits measure electoral colleges, they the problem of the unknown in polling is not rooted in any scien- measure voters, so perhaps that is population) provided some tific evidence that probability samples T one of the problems. The polling interesting answers to these ques- don’t continue to work, despite de- was closer than 2012 and overall clining response rates and the prolif- tions. For example, we heard that within the margin of error. eration of cellphone-only households. various expressions of xenophobia and nativism, even white suprema- 3. The real problem was one of The problem is that the population cism, were critical drivers. It appears prediction. Some pollsters made of actual voters is an unknown (un- that they were factors but almost cer- bad predictions but the truly til Election Day). Let me be blunt: tainly driven by more primordial eco- terrible errors came from the we don’t really know who is going nomic and social class forces. Trump aggregators, not the pollsters. to show up on Election Day. When won many more states, but the total 4. Finally, we should reduce our turnout is low to modest, and voters economic output of those states was fixation on predicting the result differ from non-voters, we are going roughly half that of the fewer states (which everyone will know the to see errors. Asking people whether Clinton won. Trump also did better day-of) and try and understand they are going to vote is useless. We than Romney with blacks and His- what is going on with citizens. might gain a little insight by asking panics, which weakens the view that What were the rhythms and if they know where their polling sta- racism was a critical driver. forces which drove the voters tion is. One of the best predictors is (and non-voters) and what do that past voting behaviour—serial Intriguing analyses have connected they tell us about how society and voters—generally remain such as do both Trump and Brexit to growing politics are evolving? serial non-voters; until they don’t. It resentment and anger due to middle turns out that a lot of lapsed Republi- class decline and economic stagna- Contributing Writer Frank Graves is can voters who haven’t voted in years tion; resentment of the kids at the President and CEO of EKOS, a national actually showed up this time, which front of the class who have fared fine public opinion research firm. threw the likely voter models off. while everyone else has stagnated [email protected]

January/February 2017 20 We’re the Conservatives and We’re Here to Help Rona Ambrose

eople who bowl vote. Bowl- opportunities. Those working in the development has put Prime Minister “ Pers are not the cultural elite.” Canadian political arena will be un- Trudeau dramatically offside with Canada’s most important economic So said American vice-president Dan der pressure to sell our message and partner. Quayle in 1992. He was speaking in a ideas to every voter, regardless of lo- Las Vegas bowling alley when he said cation or income. Canadian consumer goods are about it, so no doubt he was keen to warm to get more expensive, if the Prime up his audience. But this idea—that There are plenty of Minister has his way. The cost of his blue-collar, middle class, salt-of-the- lessons for Canadian carbon tax scheme could add a burden earth types form the most dedicated of as much as $2,500 per household. bloc of voters—has been a political politicians to learn from This is an across-the-board hike on ba- truism for years in Canada and the Donald Trump’s surprising sics such as gasoline for our vehicles, United States. You could just as easily political victory. But what the fuel that warms our homes, the apply the phrase to pipe-fitters while may be the most critical is power we require to keep the lights on, standing at an oil refinery, IT special- and numerous other everyday items. ists working on your office computer, that pocketbook concerns are Add to that new payroll and income or—to use the Canadian cliché—the clearly shaping the average taxes and you get what former Bank of customers in line at Tim Hortons on voter’s anxiety, and in some Canada Governor David Dodge calls a Tuesday morning. cases, anger. an “economic exodus”, where high skill workers flee south. Yet it isn’t a stretch either to suggest that two recent events—the Brexit With the conditions being set for the vote and the recent U.S. election— U.S. economy to continue its upward The three big challenges are taxes, exposed deep levels of dissatisfac- growth, so, too, will American busi- pipeline development and trade. tion with governments that were ness begin to flex its advantages over Put another way, Canada’s relation- seen to be mired in self-interest its neighbours. ship with the United States is about rather than the best interests of the to become about jobs, in a way the The Trump administration is plan- citizens they governed. Prime Minister doesn’t seem to fully ning to drop corporate tax rates from There are plenty of lessons for Cana- appreciate. 35 percent to 15 percent, and dramati- dian politicians to learn from Donald cally reduce income tax rates. Cana- Of all of Prime Minister Justin Trump’s surprising political victory. da’s combined federal-provincial cor- Trudeau’s policy initiatives, perhaps But what may be the most critical is porate rates place us 23rd of 35 OECD none demands a clear-eyed second that pocketbook concerns are clearly countries—Trump’s changes would look more than his high-tax approach. shaping the average voter’s anxiety, have the U.S. jump from 35th to 12th. and in some cases, anger. Trudeau’s carbon tax is without a The incoming president has been doubt his signature policy. Yet, giv- Now is the moment for the Liberal clear that any new federal infrastruc- en that the United States is our most government to get focused. Big gov- ture spending under his administra- important ally and trading partner, ernment experiments like legalizing tion will include local content rules any policy that promotes what is es- marijuana, electoral reform or try- that will restrict opportunities for sentially a tax on everyday goods ing to define “social infrastructure” Canadian steelmakers, engineers and consumables must be measured might be fun, academic pastimes and construction workers to supply against the impacts it would have on for the Prime Minister, but govern- these projects. Canada’s competitiveness. ing is serious business. The incoming The Canadian government should Trump administration has the poten- Donald Trump has been clear that a also anticipate that U.S. business will tial to massively impact Canada, in carbon tax is not on the horizon for retain its energy cost advantage, as ways that offer both challenges and the American economy. This new a Trump administration loosens the

Policy 21 Now is the time for the Liberals to reconsider their approach. The Trudeau government has been content to rest on the work done by the Harper government before them, while avoiding any public cheerleading for Key- stone. A public display of support for a job-creation project would signal a measure of understanding for the average Canadian workers who simply want to get back on the job. This, as they say, is the easy stuff. None of this is to suggest that Canada must move in lockstep with our Amer- ican neighbours on every issue. Just the opposite—the most important job of any government is to defend the interests of the citizens it serves, and seize opportunities where they arise. But the Prime Minister must not forget that government exists to serve the people, not the other way around. The moment we lose sight of the very Opposition Leader Rona Ambrose in the House of Commons. She writes that “there are plenty of lessons” for Canadian politicians to learn from Donald Trump’s “surprising victory”, not least real concerns of Canadians, we begin the importance of pocketbook issues. Christian Diotte photo to erode our democracy. I’m concerned that Prime Minister Trudeau reins on coal, methane and other cessions in areas such as supply man- has yet to grasp that Canada’s abil- corners of the energy production sec- agement, intellectual property and ity to remain competitive and create tor. Meanwhile in Canada, the gov- cultural industries. jobs is very much a concern for regu- ernment is phasing out coal with no lar Canadians. clear transition plan for job losses. he bottom line here is that more than three million jobs So the focus now must be: keep Can- Most bizarre of all was Prime Min- in Canada are tied to trade. Yet ada competitive. Now that the Prime ister Trudeau’s proactive offer to re- T Prime Minister Trudeau has found his Minister has offered to open up NAF- open the North American Free Trade go-along-to-get-along tone on exactly TA, it won’t be easily closed. He must Agreement (NAFTA), one of the most the wrong issue, charging full steam remain firm in defending Canada’s successful trade agreements in mod- ahead into trade renegotiations that interests. Our Conservative caucus— ern history. Before even being asked, put three-quarters of exports at risk. having been the architects of our the Prime Minister stated publicly While “updating” the most impor- free trade agreement with Europe— that Canada would be willing to look tant trade deal in Canadian history are here to help. Lower taxes, both at a renegotiation. may sound like a tantalizing academic personal and corporate, to ensure it Assuming the new president makes exercise, to thousands of Canadian remains affordable to live and work good on his campaign promises, U.S. farmers, workers, and business own- in Canada. And recognize the oppor- trade strategy is poised to shift from ers, it’s a chilling reminder that their tunity that Keystone and other re- free trade principles to a more case- livelihoods are too often subject to source projects present for Canada’s by-case bargaining model. Access to the whims of Ottawa politicians. And resource industry and the thousands the lucrative U.S. consumer market judging by the government’s record of good jobs that depend on it. will depend on companies and trad- so far on softwood lumber, they have The people in line at Tim Hortons ing partners agreeing to increase pro- good reason to be worried. vote. They do it because they have duction in the U.S. or import more The one opportunity here for Canada not forgotten that they have a say as from American producers. While it is should be the Keystone XL pipeline. well. The Prime Minister cannot lose unlikely that a renegotiated NAFTA It would mean thousands of jobs sight of their very real concerns. would hike tariffs on all Canadian ex- for Canadian workers, particularly ports—a move that could cut annual in western Canada, where dropping Opposition Leader Rona Ambrose GDP by 2-4 percent, according to Ex- commodity prices have created an is Interim Leader of the port Development Canada—Canada unemployment crisis that has gone Conservative Party of Canada. would surely be asked to offer con- unnoticed by the Liberal government. [email protected]

January/February 2017 22

The Trump Tower in New York, Donald Trump’s home and base for his transition. Police have surrounded the building on Fifth Avenue, as have thousands of New Yorkers, some protesting his election, some just curious. Flickr photo/Anthony Albright Letter from America: A Canadian Millennial View Morgane Richer La Fleche

merica is hard to see, or so the most economically distressed big ages passerby to vent their post- wrote the poet Robert Frost in cities in America, there were no signs election emotions through sticky A1951. The 2016 American of Rust Belt decline on their tree-lined note messages, which range from the election, which exposed deep frac- streets. The SUVs in their neighbors’ apologetic (“World, we are sorry we tures in the nation’s discourse and driveways marked their distance from failed”) to the positive (“We are all demographics, has forced Americans the pick-ups we’d passed in nearby immigrants, love your neighbor”) to and Canadians alike to revisit their towns, where the median income the obscene. understanding of the nation’s divid- and population are halved. There ed electorate. As the country goes bi- were no Trump supporters at their o some New Yorkers, a Trump nary—blue and red, urban and rural, dinner table. presidency still feels theoreti- coastal and flyover—what still holds cal. Deriding Trump as an “or- Back in Manhattan a few days later, it T America together? ange hand-grenade” for the malcon- seemed easier to take comfort in Clin- tent, a friend suggests the reality of a I spent this past U.S. Thanksgiving ton’s now-sizeable margin in the pop- Trump presidency would be less dire holiday with my boyfriend’s family in ular vote. New York—like its coastal than anticipated. He spins this upset the suburbs of Cleveland, Ohio. Edu- cousin, California—had been quick as a wake-up call that will force the cated and liberal, his relatives mirror to declare its willingness to fight a political elite to be more responsive, the divide between urban and rural Trump administration on issues from strengthening the Democrats in the voters in the state and across the coun- immigration to LGBTQ rights. next round. While his optimism is try. His 90-year old grandmother, who Uptown, protesters gathered in the soothing, I remember watching Tel- used to volunteer as a counselor for lobby of Trump Tower, which has be- emundo’s immigration-focused pro- women seeking abortions, canvassed come an impromptu newsroom and gramming with my Colombian grand- for Hillary Clinton. His aunt and un- heavily patrolled tourist attraction. mother the day after the election, and cle hosted a volunteer working on the Downtown, an interactive “Subway recall the rise in hate crimes since. Democratic campaign. Therapy” installation in the 14th Doubting the impact of Trump’s presi- And while Cleveland ranks as one of Street-Union Square station encour- dency is now a marker of privilege.

Policy 23 This election has made clear that we even know, let alone talk to, their po- tries are leaning further into fear and live in bubbles. After eight years in the litical counterparts. division, it has suddenly become very United States, I do not know a single cool to be Canadian. Trump supporter. Even my Republi- Yet any glee that Canadians might can friends supported Hillary Clinton Our inability to feel at our own “Obama moment” in this election, some because they fathom a Trump were convinced by her superior quali- has been tempered by the knowledge fications, others to protest their par- presidency before election that Canada will feel the repercus- ty’s candidate. Only my friends who night, like our blind sions of America’s mistakes. While grew up in rural counties and the so- confusion in its wake, is a much remains uncertain, friends called flyover states claim to have seen testament to the dangers of on both sides of the border have it coming, thankful for their upbring- expressed frustration over Trump’s ing outside of the bubble. political isolation. stated positions on immigration, This isolation is partly Our inability to fathom a Trump trade, and climate change. In Can- presidency before election night, like engineered by the tools of ada, there is concern that Trump’s our blind confusion in its wake, is a modern campaigns. success might inspire a Canadian testament to the dangers of politi- equivalent—a claim for which there cal isolation. This isolation is partly has already been some evidence. engineered by the tools of modern After an election season that has campaigns. or many, reaching out to the wearied even the pundits, I was an- A few weeks after the election, I at- other side sounds unacceptably ticipating that exhaustion would be tended a lecture at the Data Science F like walking back non-nego- the most common response to the Institute of Columbia University tiable progress on the cultural issues new president-elect. Yet I have found given by Cathy O’Neil, whose latest that have defined Trump’s campaign. unexpected hope in the newfound book Weapons of Math Destruction in- For some, it means engaging with resolve shown by people who, while vestigates the ways that algorithms people who view their very existence politically aware, have never been threaten democracy. Addressing the as suspect. politically active. elephant in the room, O’Neil de- I have had the privilege of witness- scribed how the predictive models There is a strange solidarity in the ing the most recent Canadian elec- used in political polling as well as willingness of American liberals to tion from the United States, and the micro-targeting strategies had con- take responsibility for the Trump American election from Canada. In tributed to the erosion of American voter, their investment in a shared many ways, it can feel like these two political discourse. When campaigns national project outweighing vast can tailor a thousand different mes- countries—whose familiarity with each other has always belied their differences in values. I have heard sages to audiences based on their friends strategize how to get involved identity, candidates don’t need to fundamental differences—have di- in local politics. I’ve witnessed pledg- waste time debating the issues. Once verged irreversibly. Canadians’ be- es to support social justice organiza- the electorate has been reduced wildered contempt for their South- tions, many of which have received a to immovable tribes, winning is a ern neighbor has only deepened. matter of voter turnout rather than Meanwhile, it is already a well-worn record-breaking number of donations changing minds. quip that Citizenship and Immigra- since the election. tion Canada’s website crashed as the On social media, my peers have be- Consequently, Americans at the ex- American election results rolled in. tremes of the political spectrum no gun to alternate between categorical- longer share the same facts, which has In Canada, I am fielding more con- ly denouncing Trump and searching made it increasingly easy to replace cerned questions than ever regard- for more effective ways to reach out them with opinions. In just one strik- ing the wisdom of my choice to live to voters they don’t know. My boy- ing example, a 2015 poll by Public in the United States. In the U.S., my friend’s aunt plans to get involved in Policy Polling found that 43 per cent friends have become increasingly ob- immigration justice. If underestimat- of Republicans believe that Barack sessed with our prime minister, for ing Trump was in part a product of Obama is a Muslim, a false belief once reasons ranging from his fiscal poli- complacency, then his election has cies to his friendliness with pandas. embraced by the incoming president. invigorated a new resistance. Let’s While Trump ascended on prom- Although rebuilding a functional na- just hope it’s not too late. tional dialogue has been central to ises of reclamation and retribution, all of my conversations during this Trudeau has branded Canada with Morgane Richer La Fleche, a Montreal election season, I have yet to hear a openness, whether at the United Na- millennial, is a graduate of the compelling strategy for unification in tions General Assembly or on Insta- University of Chicago and has worked on a post-fact society where people don’t gram. At a time when so many coun- Wall Street. [email protected]

January/February 2017 24

Guest Column / Nathan Cullen Tailgating in Trump’s America simply can’t vote for Hillary tage at the polls. America is just doing lowed themselves to be willing and Clinton. She’ll take away it with a reality TV star at the helm, grateful accomplices in his rise to “I all of this,” a woman told ushering in an even less polished, prominence. Never imagining him me, turning to the thousands of Loui- less “elite” but devastatingly effective a serious threat, they allowed his sianans gathered outside the college form of campaigning. Twitter account to drive the story of football stadium affectionately called the day. And a willing and curious Death Valley. “We won’t be able to What is most worrisome isn’t just public reposted and gazed at this car tailgate again.” Trump’s hard right, or ‘alt-right’, wreck of a campaign throwing itself tendencies. If there is any guiding wildly down the highway to that Death Valley might as well be what political philosophy at all, it’s the November day. Democrats call the vast sea of Red obsession with the next retweet, America that turned out in such “like” or earned media moment. Van Jones, the former Obama adviser overwhelming numbers for Clinton’s What’s most concerning is Trump’s and current CNN commentator, said populist opponent, Donald Trump. willingness to subcontract the eco- it best when he warned a progressive nomic, foreign, and domestic policy crowd at the Broadbent Summit in I don’t believe Hillary Clinton details out to ‘the best people’ who mid-November that “Trump can hap- planned to shut down tailgating—the represent some of the hardest right- pen here.” Indeed, his poor imitation great American tradition of gathering wing elements in America. in the form of Conservative leader- with scores of friends and neighbours ship candidate Kellie Leitch is mak- each Saturday of the football season Three newspapers ended up support- ing her own tentative steps. to consume truly impressive amounts ing Trump. One was owned by the Ku of grilled, boiled, deep-fried, BBQ’ed, Klux Klan. From D.C. to New Orleans to Baton smoked and every other form of Rouge and Cleveland, we found a cooked meat known to humankind. ven in the midst of casting love of country almost unparalleled I wonder if she’s ever been to a tail- their votes for him, many in its proud and unreserved expres- gating party. But it’s where conserva- E Trump supporters openly ad- sion. Asking an American who they tive, Christian and Donald Trump’s mitted that he wasn’t actually going were voting for was the equivalent of America live and breathe. to do the outrageous (and often com- asking for their life story and hopes pletely impossible) things he had said and fears for the future. It was inspir- I spent the final 10 days of the U.S. that often first caught their attention. ing, terrifying and, honestly, refresh- election on a State Department-spon- It was that their attention had been ing for us—coming from a country sored tour with a small but hearty caught at all. Trump’s ability to re- that so often apologizes or codes our band of Canadian academics, politi- flect back their fears and devastating political feelings. cians, pollsters and political types. sense of loss brought them slowly to Looking back, milling around a col- support a man who had been a fringe Yet they’ve gone and elected a candi- lege football game wasn’t the most and curiosity candidate up until he date who carefully and surgically ex- obvious place to see how this election became the Republican nominee. posed some of the deepest racial, class would turn out to be one of the most and historical divisions within their shocking in modern history—but it Bobby Kennedy once said, with great country. The question isn’t whether might have been the most honest. foresight, that “Too often we honour Trump can heal the damage done, it’s swagger and bluster and wielders of simply a question of how much more In the aftermath of the U.S. election, force; too often we excuse those who damage his wanton and irresponsible Canadians must avoid being smug. are willing to build their own lives on form of politics will inflict on a coun- We’re the country of Rob Ford and a the shattered dreams of others.” try needing more solutions, not more (proposed) barbaric practices snitch problems. line, after all. We’ve known danger- The blind spot that media, pollsters ous divisions and real cultural and and political elite (from both parties) Nathan Cullen, MP for the northern political solitudes over our time as a had created was so large you could B.C. riding of Skeena-Bulkley Valley, is nation. Political leaders have targeted hide a Trump Tower behind it. The the NDP critic for democratic reform. vulnerable minorities to gain advan- American media in particular had al- [email protected]

Policy 25 Canada and Trump: A New Focus on Mitigating Risk George Haynal and Kevin Lynch

While it can be difficult to discern precisely what the infrastructure investments to stimulate short-term demand and rebuild po- coming Trump administration will or won’t adhere to in tential growth over the longer term. foreign policy terms after a campaign fraught with mixed Given the integration of our econo- signals and a transition that seems to have ushered in mies, the interoperability of our infrastructure and the compatibility of our a new era of improvisational diplomacy, there are some systems, there is considerable scope areas of bilateral concern in which careful planning can for a joint or coordinated approach to infrastructure projects. These mitigate risk. could include the improvement of north-south transportation linkages, onald Trump’s campaign targets for aggressive policy making. electricity transmission links, and rhetoric was anti-trade, anti- The negative is that when domes- smart systems and customs plazas to D pluralism, anti-immigration, tic interests in the U.S. deem it use- improve border crossings. Indeed, we anti-climate mitigation and anti- ful to do so, we face calls to pay for might consider proposing a joint in- multilateralism. The contrast with the broad relationship with conces- frastructure investment fund, free of the Trudeau government’s core poli- sions on individual issues such as “buy national” constraints, to under- cies could not be starker. Is conflict, softwood lumber protectionism and take beneficial joint projects. then, inevitable? Not necessarily, “Buy America” campaigns. While the Security is under threat around the but sophisticated risk management vagaries of the U.S. political system world. We face an increasing risk needs to be the order of the day as may intensify now, they should not of global terrorism, an escalation of the Canadian government pursues present an unprecedented challenge. cyber threats to data privacy as well its policy objectives. We have to do our homework, look as core infrastructure, a dramatic in- The handling of the complex risks in- to the long term, propose ideas for crease in human migration due to herent in such an asymmetrical rela- mutual benefit, defend our interests civil wars and fragile states, and a re- tionship as that which binds Canada and explore new opportunities. turn of “Cold War geopolitics”. Can- and the United States has always been The primary risks to Canada are clear: ada and the United States share that integral to Canadian “statecraft” by a renegotiation of NAFTA, whereby threat to an unusual degree given our both government and business. It re- the US will push to retain jobs and contiguous territories, our integrated mains so and requires, now more than investment with a particular focus on economies and related social values ever, not wrung hands, but cool heads. Mexico; a “thicker border” intended and rights. Neither of us can, for all No one can yet see the shape and to reassure Americans that they are practical purposes, totally separate contours of the incoming Trump safe from illegal immigration and our security from that of the other. administration’s agenda. It remains terrorism but that could impede the What might this mean in practice? prudent, therefore, to keep a low pro- smooth flow of goods and people; Canada should consider measures to file in Washington in the short term and, a more aggressive approach to better protect the security of our na- so as not to become a target in the security, which could affect many tional perimeter. This includes a great- uncertain discourse shaping the next bilateral relationships. On all these er focus on our obligations for Arctic four years. That said, we need to plan fronts, while we must protect our sovereignty, particularly as the Arctic strategy and reinforce alliances of in- core economic interests and values, region becomes more navigable, and fluence across the United States to there is a range of mutually beneficial making the required investments in help us meet the challenges ahead. opportunities that we could pursue. surveillance technologies, ice break- Canada’s brand in the United States ers, science and on-the-ground ca- is positive but opaque. We are rarely oth the Canadian government pacity. It also suggests greater in- at the top of the U.S. political agenda and the new U.S. administra vestments in our security screening with the result that we are rarely the B tion are committed to large in- capacity at all points of entry—ports,

January/February 2017 26 airports and land border—to better The prospect of heightened U.S. protectionism protect our perimeter and to thereby reassure on the Canada-U.S. border. should propel us to make concrete choices about And, as committed multilateralists, trade diversification given our huge dependency on the we should reinforce our support of American market. With the demise of the TPP, we could sign NATO with both military dollars and an early bilateral trade deal with Japan. political capital at a time when this crucial alliance is under threat from within and from outside, particularly by Russian expansionism. But Canada’s willingness to seize op- high-tech areas that demand world willingness for reform within the portunities in this more uncertain class talent, we should place a greater Canadian economy, for instance in global environment can and should ex- focus on attracting foreign invest- opening intra-provincial trade and tend beyond the bilateral relationship. ment in the new economy, along rationalization of supply manage- the lines of the Invest in Canada hub ment, as well as burnishing our fiscal he uncertainty about the di- Finance Minister Bill Morneau un- credibility by setting out a clear path rection of U.S. trade policies veiled in the November fiscal update. back to fiscal balance at debt-to-GDP T poses challenges and creates We are uniquely well positioned to levels well below the U.S. and other opportunities. On energy, while it is do this. Canadian values of openness, major economies. possible that the new administration tolerance, diversity and respect have might approve the Keystone XL pipe- a particular appeal in a world where Uncertainty in U.S. policy making line, the key question is whether to they are increasingly in short supply. means Canada needs to be strategic perpetuate our total reliance on the But Canada offers more than “nice- in managing the dynamic risks and U.S. market for our oil and gas ex- ness”—we have an excellent educa- in pursuing potential opportunities. ports, particularly as the U.S. ramps tion system, strong research capacity, Free trade access to the American up shale production. Energy mar- emerging start-up innovation clus- market and an open and efficient bor- ket diversification is essential, and ters, liveable cities and stable public der are crucial to Canadian prosper- this requires pipeline access to both institutions. We need to better mar- ity. It is the time for Canadian gov- coasts. The government’s decision on ket these enormous assets around the ernments to strengthen connections the Trans Mountain pipeline was a world, including in the United States, with U.S. states whose largest export welcome step in ensuring our energy as part of the “Canada brand” if we market is Canada. It is the time for sovereignty; moving oil and gas to want to own the podium in the glob- Canadian businesses who export to the east coast should be next. al hunt for talent. the U.S. to work more closely with their American counterparts who More broadly, the prospect of height- Similarly, with respect to climate profit from access to the Canadian ened U.S. protectionism should pro- change policies, Canada can embark market. And it is clearly the time to pel us to make concrete choices about on a different approach than the pursue talent, trade and investment trade diversification given our huge United States, notwithstanding the opportunities globally. dependency on the American market. integration of our business sectors. With the demise of the TPP, we could Indeed, we have done so successfully But at its heart, the imperative for sign an early bilateral trade deal with in the past—universal healthcare, Canadian governments remains the Japan, which will be looking for new the GST, the CPP-QPP and distinct same as ever—to pursue and protect partnerships along TPP lines. With banking regulation being obvious ex- our national interests, maintain the escalating China-U.S. trade tensions, amples. The key is design: to change highest level of compatibility between we have an opportunity to negotiate relative prices, not absolute costs. our deeply connected North Ameri- a series of sectoral trade agreements A coordinated national carbon tax can economic systems, coordinate with China, leading eventually to along the lines of British Columbia’s, on shared global challenges, and take an FTA when circumstances permit. with its clear recycling of revenues to maximum advantage of opportunities With chances of a U.S.-EU trade maintain business competitiveness, opened to us by changes in U.S. poli- agreement now gone, CETA allows us combined with a flexible exchange cies, intended or otherwise. to position Canada as the preferred rate and simplification of existing reg- George Haynal is Professor of Practice North American location to produce ulations, would be more effective and at the Munk School of Global Affairs and access the huge EU market as pose fewer competitiveness risks than and former ADM at the Department of Mexico now does effectively thanks complex cap-and-trade systems with Foreign Affairs to its own agreement with the EU. unclear revenue recycling regimes. Contributing Writer Kevin Lynch is With a less welcoming U.S. attitude inally, there is also room to con- Vice-Chair, BMO Financial Group and to both immigration and foreign di- sider how a more protectionist former Clerk of the Privy Council and rect investment, especially in the F U.S. trade stance could increase Head of the Public Service in Ottawa.

Policy 27

The Canada-U.S. border crossing at Detroit, the busiest trade crossing in the bilateral trade relationship. The very size of the relationship, $2 billion a day, means Donald Trump and Justin Trudeau will find ways to get along. iStock photo Geography has Made Us Neighbours. Now What? Jaime Watt

Donald Trump’s successful campaign for the presidency of the United States didn’t so much rewrite the rulebook as he sky hasn’t fallen. burn it altogether. It remains to be seen how conventional T and therefore predictable his presidency will be. The early In the weeks following the U.S. presidential election, the stock market was signs indicate that Canada’s stewardship of the bilateral on fire, the nuclear arsenal had yet to relationship will be tested as it hasn’t been since the last be launched, more goods continued to Trudeau was in office. cross the Ambassador Bridge between Detroit and Windsor than any other international border crossing in the world and Americans are still going to work and to school every day.

January/February 2017 28 However, change is coming; change In terms of policy, Donald Trump will present several that affects Canada. And how Canada challenges to the Trudeau government because each chooses to respond to the change will play a big role in the impact it has on has very different goals, including on current challenges such our country. as the environment and refugees.

This change will manifest itself in two ways. First, political campaign- ers will have to rewrite the rule book. Second, in terms of policy, Donald thenticity, he played a consistent tenets close to the hearts of past Trump will present several challenges role, just as he had done on his real- Conservative governments are the to the Trudeau government because ity TV shows, The Apprentice and The ones at stake. The North American each has very different goals, includ- Celebrity Apprentice. Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), ing on current challenges such as the the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), environment and refugees. Campaign professionals strive to cre- American rapprochement with ate an authentic candidate to whom Cuba, the Syrian civil war, engage- The unorthodoxy of the Trump cam- people can relate—one with a back- ment with Russia, unconditional paign was astonishingly successful story that captures the essence of vot- support for Israel—the list goes on. laying waste to the idea that cookie- ers’ aspirations. cutter political campaigns are win- Trump’s presidency poses a greater ning campaigns. This was never going to happen with threat to former prime minister Ste- Trump, an unusually privileged son phen Harper’s trade and foreign poli- Trump threw out the campaign rule of a businessman, a billionaire who cy legacy than Trudeau ever did. book because he had never read the hasn’t paid federal taxes in years. rule book. In doing so, he created at But what Trump lacked in authentic- least three new rules for elections Given this new world to come. ity, he made up for with consistency. His contrivance was perfectly con- we find ourselves in, First, the candidate with the best stant, across all media, whether it was it’s important that Trudeau ground game no longer necessarily a major network interview, a stadium respond only to concrete appearance in front of 10,000 ador- wins. Second, television advertising policy proposals that Trump is not the key to success it once was. ing fans or a late-night Tweet. Third, authenticity no longer matters. puts forward, and not to The new campaign rule book fun- his abstract Twitter Throughout the campaign, Trump damentally alters the political land- proclamations. insisted he did not need to rely on scape. No longer should we equate traditional campaign tactics to win. electoral success with those with the Hillary Clinton used the data-driv- deepest pockets, oldest party roots, en, on-the-ground machine that the most endorsements or a perfect Norman Rockwell resume. propelled President Barack Obama Given this new world we find ourselves to two straight electoral victories. Looking ahead, and with regard to in, it’s important that Trudeau re- Trump, meanwhile, pointed to the spond only to concrete policy propos- overwhelming nomination victory policy and the future of the U.S.-Can- ada relationship, many have argued als that Trump puts forward, and not he achieved with a relatively small to his abstract Twitter proclamations. team on a tight budget, and he stuck that Trudeau’s mandate and many of his policy objectives are less likely to that strategy for the election For the most part, Canadian govern- to succeed with a Republican in the campaign. ments have maintained a businesslike White House. approach toward the United States, hen, Trump campaigned in There is, however, another way to and such an approach will continue a different way. Instead of look at this—the Trump presidency to serve Canada well with Trump in T spending millions of dollars on might, just might, afford Canada eco- the White House. television advertising, he focused on nomic good fortune. old-school rallies, his message seeping There are a couple of things Trudeau through the free media coverage and In fact, it is not Trudeau’s legacy and needs to do to chart a path forward his often ridiculous Twitter posts. progress that’s on the line. with Trump. He needs to reassure the Americans that we have their Finally, rather than strive for au- Instead, more than a few policy back on security.

Policy 29 He also must demonstrate that the On taxes, Trump touts an aggressive and he will try to reduce reliance on economies of both Canada and the plan to attract investment that could oil from countries he views as anti- U.S. have been served well by con- put Canadian business in peril. His thetical to the American experience. stant, constructive engagement. He tax plan features tax cuts across the On the bright side for Canada, he must demonstrate that the relation- board, with the hope that individuals has voiced support for the Keystone ship is not a zero-sum game, that and businesses will have more mon- XL pipeline. what is good for Canada in the bilat- ey to invest. Personal taxes would be Earlier this year, The Economist list- eral relationship is also good for the simplified to three brackets, while ed the possible election of Donald U.S., and vice versa. corporate taxes would be reduced to Trump as one of the top 10 risks fac- 15 per cent from 35 per cent. The new U.S. president and Cana- ing the world. He was rated as posing da’s prime minister have very differ- RBC Capital Markets reports that a greater risk than Britain leaving the ent policy goals. However, wheth- the move will boost the American European Union, or an armed clash er they like it or not, they will be economy, which would be positive in the South China Sea. for Canada. However, those moves forced to work together on certain Trump’s election to the Oval Of- would make Canada’s Harper-level key bilateral issues. fice is a sign that choppy waters are corporate taxes less competitive straight ahead. Canada, like the rest Trump’s foreign policy acknowledges and make a southward brain-drain of the world, has no choice but to the fatigue that Americans feel about more likely. sail right through. foreign military interventions. This sets the stage for the country to take a John F. Kennedy, commenting on pass on multilateral conflicts. Trudeau was an the relationship between the U.S. enthusiastic and Canada in his address to Parlia- Trump has already mused about ment in 1961, famously said: “Geog- scaling back American treaty obliga- signatory of the Paris raphy has made us neighbours. His- tions in Asia and with NATO, an al- agreement, and if Trump tory has made us friends. Economics liance that he has attacked as “obso- follows through, the prime has made us partners and neces- lete.” Meanwhile, he has exchanged minister will face a choice sity has made us allies.” Words now kind words with Russia, NATO’s between keeping his word graven in stone in the lobby of the old nemesis. or making adjustments to U.S. Embassy in Ottawa. On a more concerning note, Trump guarantee Canadian Less than a decade after JFK uttered has threatened to ignore any invok- competitiveness. those words, Prime Minister Pierre ing of Article 5—the principle of col- Trudeau had to deal with an Ameri- lective defence—by NATO allies who can president who was overtly hostile do not meet the minimum spending to the Canadian government. on defence. Canada spends less than half of the minimum. And finally, Trump would put global In the peculiar way history repeats climate agreements in jeopardy. He itself, Pierre’s son will soon have to On trade, Trump has expressed a de- has declared that he doesn’t believe deal with a potentially hostile White sire to renegotiate NAFTA. If Canada in the science of climate change. House. or Mexico object, he could withdraw He has said he intends to withdraw Conservative strategist Jaime Watt is from the deal entirely—closing off from the Paris Agreement on climate a member of CBC’s popular Insiders the lucrative American market. That change, end carbon emission limits panel on The National, and executive means that Brian Mulroney’s 1987 on American power plants, and de- chairman of Navigator Ltd. free trade agreement with the United regulate coal, natural gas and off- [email protected] States goes back into effect, but Trump shore oil drilling. Trudeau was an may want to renegotiate that, too. enthusiastic signatory of the Paris agreement, and if Trump follows The dealmaker-in-chief will not be through, the prime minister will face content to let the status quo in trade a choice between keeping his word continue, and he won’t stop at NAF- or making adjustments to guarantee TA. Leaked transition documents Canadian competitiveness. show that he’s taking aim at Canada’s softwood lumber and beef industries, American energy independence is a through country-of-origin labelling. core tenet of Trump’s philosophy,

January/February 2017 30

Trump supporters rallying in Baltimore in September. While there was lots of fake news on social media, the outcome was stunning in the real world. While there was nothing presidential about Trump’s campaign, he won the presidency. Flickr photo. The Trump Tsunami Jeremy Kinsman

The factors that converged to produce Donald Trump’s and abroad. As historian Neal Gabler warned on Bill Moyers’ website: “A de- previously unthinkable election victory weren’t so much mocracy relies on truth. Fake news is a perfect storm as a tsunami of discontent among certain an assault on democracy.” voters, dissatisfaction with the Democratic alternative Others caution against over-reaction, and the ultimate manifestation of a truth our culture has amid a tendency to “normalize” the event and indeed the incoming presi- failed to reckon with for a decade: that the internet has dent himself. As Barack Obama’s na- been not the great democratizer it was supposed to be but tional security adviser Susan Rice put it rather just the opposite. to CNN’s Fareed Zakaria, “Campaigns are campaigns. Governing is governing. They are very different things.” Suggesting that Trump will pragmati- onald Trump’s election as or appease it. But a vastly changed cally adjust to centrist and concilia- American president was a po- media and information ecosystem tory realities when he actually has to D litical tsunami of unprece- that enabled him to win the world’s govern a vast nation of 321 million dented force. His unpredictability and most powerful office with disinforma- people and assume the role of global volatility could exacerbate the appar- tion and fake news has exposed vul- leader, optimists cite his ostensibly ent anger of much of the electorate, nerabilities for democracy, in the U.S. non-ideological history and pattern

Policy 31 of shifting positions. They whimsical- meaningful reality was that people tories, while migrants displace them ly recall the old Groucho Marx line: like my driver hadn’t felt the benefits. at home and “minorities” get all the “Here are my principles, if you don’t He saw Trump as a billionaire who attention. like them, well, I have others.” knows how to “get big things done” Jobs have indeed been lost—about They assume that candidate Trump and—best of all—as a fellow out- 5 million since 1980—but the main will be changed by the “transforma- sider. It’s that faith that partly fuels cause is transformative technology, tive” effect of the Oval Office that the angry Trump “movement” that changing what America does and how supposedly encourages American attracted so many working people and where it does it. Immigration, presidents to reach out to all Ameri- who felt marginalized. Trump didn’t which has scored as a top concern cans and unify the country. discover their sense of injury. Books among fewer than 10 per cent of vot- like What’s the Matter with Kansas?, ers, in this campaign became a wild- A month into the transition courte- The Unwinding, and Hillbilly Elegy fire scapegoat, mostly in places where ously facilitated by President Obama, had been digging for years into the there are barely any immigrants. building a cabinet mainly of mega- fraught psycho-economic landscape wealthy entrepreneurs and individ- of blue collar America. s with the Brexit referendum ualistic military men, Trump only result, the roots of griev- But Trump came across as a first re- partly defers to the “old normal.” ance are more likely identity- sponder. Moreover, he found and ex- A His combative and touchy ego con- based. Change has eroded ways of life ploited new channels through which tinues to dictate behavior. Without and social status. Public institutions to connect to the groundswell of evidence, he blamed his popular vote which people used to trust have lost largely uninformed anger, amping it loss by over 2 million on the votes their confidence. up in much darker ways than Bernie of “millions of illegal aliens.” When Sanders’ did in his call for a new and However, Trump could not have asked if such unwarranted statements fairer economic deal. shaped that susceptibility and mood correspond to “presidential behavior, of inchoate bitterness into victory “ Kellyanne Conway retorted “He is any have assumed Trump without two essentials: the president. So now, ‘presidential’ won because he drew nor- • A transformed media landscape he is what he does.” We are in uncharted M mally Democratic blue- understood could be surfed by a behavioral territory. collar white voters dismayed by their truth-distorting populist; and party’s distance from working class • An opponent in Hillary Clinton eturning to California after the roots to cross-over. Data show that who—contrary to expectations— election, my first encounter more important to his margin of vic- was a gift to him, in background R was with that hackneyed lo- tory were first-time voters who felt and campaign performance, cal source, the cab driver coming understood for the first time. For notably in making personal in from the airport. An older white analyst Nate Silver, “education was suitability the emphasis rather guy, he was deliriously happy about almost everything.” White working than policy. Trump’s win. He offered reassurance class voters without college education that the immigration stuff wasn’t who were Trump’s numerically most • Internet transformations to the about “you Canadians” but only con- significant supporters demonstrated media ecosystem are far-reaching. cerned “the monkeys pouring over high susceptibility to fake news and That they threaten healthy the Rio Grande,” said with a hint of charges. They were drawn to a candi- democracy is a harsh cold bath fondness—understandably, in a town date who was unafraid to say “some for democracy activists who had that would swiftly become an inert of the things we were thinking”—a a decade ago lauded the internet’s giant weed without Mexican-Ameri- good slice of which were divisive, un- capacity to promote openness and cans who get more or less everything true, and came across as dog whistle inclusivity. done. He also said it would be great to aimed at white ethno-nationalists. • It didn’t work out that way. As have “an American boy in the White Farhad Manjoo wrote in the New Journalism may now be over-com- House again.” York Times, the internet instead pensating in resorting to cultural “loosened our hold on the His rhapsodic sense of triumph anthropology to explain how such truth.” Five years ago, our biggest seemed rooted in the certainty that “ordinary people” felt marginalized worry was that it radicalized Trump would get the economy go- and culturally oppressed by “elites.” ing again and restore the American A more significant resentment, es- young Muslims. The Times, dream for guys like him. I doubt he pecially since the financial collapse concluded that: knew that Obama had brought in- of 2008-09, is a belief that the rich, - Twitter has become “a hate comes up and unemployment way the privileged, the well-educated and speech superhighway” down (from to 10 to 4.6 per cent) af- foreigners have ripped off solid work- - Along with Facebook and ter the disastrous Great Recession he ing people; that trade agreements Google, it enables “voices that inherited in 2008-09. The politically have stolen their jobs for foreign fac- were lurking in the shadows” to

January/February 2017 32 move to “the center of public ary and campaign chair John Podesta ners that our longstanding intimacy discourse.” operated a pedophile ring in a D.C. with the U.S. is not a cast-iron exemp- - Together they have “radically pizzeria, or that she had “sold weap- tion. We have to earn it every day. reinforced the biases that drive ons to ISIS.” These were then radiated It doesn’t mean pretending we share Americans into dangerously by millions of hits by gullible Ameri- values where we don’t. Canada’s in- opposite camps.” cans on Facebook , thereby earning clusive political culture and climate the fake newscasters advertising rev- The Times’ belief it still had sufficient today stand in vivid contrast to what enue from Google. authority as a “journal of record” to the U.S. has just chosen in this elec- tabulate falsehoods and help keep Negative news circulated much more tion. But since we are going to have the contest within the bounds of fac- effectively and widely than posi- some problems with the U.S. admin- tual discipline ran into two problems: tive reports of any kind. False news istration on economic and border newspaper readership has plummet- reached far more people than consci- issues, we have to think like neigh- ed, and so has faith in mainstream entious reporting from mainstream bours who want to find solutions. media, including increasingly bland journalists whom Trump described as Problems must not define the rela- TV network news. Gallup reported in “scum,” and the “lowest form of life,” tionship. We must make sure we op- 2015 that only 40 per cent of Ameri- an animosity ingested by his credu- erate together on agreed facts, with a cans believed that MSM report the lous followers (13 million on Twit- mutual appreciation of how we de- news “fully and fairly.” Perhaps that ter), thereby disabling the capacity of pend on each other. is why the endorsement of Clinton truthful reporting to get through. by 360 of 371 US daily papers was A new feature is that tens of mil- much less influential than it would here does all this go now? lions more Americans now look to have been 10 or 20 years ago. Where’s the blame? Mark Canada with a certain envy. This can W Zuckerberg, founder and be a political asset with legislators, onald Trump got it. He said CEO of Facebook, initially denied provided we don’t boast about being anything, often in the early there was a problem. But Google’s “more civilized.” D morning hours and on Twit- technology elites promise they will California, from where I write, is one ter. Mainstream pundits chuckled at clean up social media’s habitat. Twit- of several parts of America that relate his apparently restless insecurity. But ter has purged some visible propagan- to Canadian norms more than to some the cable news shows made those dists (who have migrated to another “red-state” regions of the U.S., in the tweets about “Crooked Hillary,” or il- more permissive channel, Gab). But way we live more inclusively together, legal migrant criminals, the top item libertarians, technology Darwinians, in our softer city environments, in in their morning line-ups of “news.” and the money gods of Silicon Val- our better PISA scores for education, Tweets were radiated by chatbots, ley will resist more strenuous edito- in public policy in many areas and trolls, and false news sites on the web. rial censorship, screening, and fact- at many levels. To insure the border An Oxford University research project checking. Internet utopia is over. The doesn’t become a disintegrating wall, showed that automated chatbots from Oxford Dictionary declared “post- we need to encourage all the connec- the Trump campaign’s surrogates truth” its word of the year for 2016. tions we can, across educational insti- overwhelmed Clinton’s messages 5 tutions, civil society, science, and lo- to 1 in the campaign’s final five days, The erosion of the primacy of fact- cal and regional government. with false news, such as that Hillary based evidence in debating public Clinton was about to go to jail, and choices in our democracies is prob- Above all, as Canadians, we need vast amplification of a distorted ver- ably the biggest issue to come out of renewed self-confidence to be our- sion of the politically volatile letters to this election tsunami. selves, including in our defence of lib- Congress from FBI Director Comey. As to the world, Trump’s worldviews eral internationalism and in pursuit of strong relationships with Mexico The issue of fake news and fake sites are not known apart from his belief and our many key overseas partners. popped up as a topic but the Clin- the U.S. has been taken advantage of ton campaign blamed much of it and that American interests will now Meanwhile, Donald Trump is our on Vladimir Putin, accused of trying come first. “America First”, as he put new interlocutor. We need to deal to rig the outcome in favour of “his it on his “Thank You” tour in Cincin- with it, and get on with it as best puppet” Donald Trump. nati in early December. we can. Officially-sponsored RT andSput - For Canada, the bilateral relationship Contributing Writer Jeremy Kinsman niknews.com did push false stories is more than economically vital; it is was a longtime Canadian ambassador, against Clinton. But they were more existential. That is why candidate Jus- notably to Russia, Britain, and the often sourced by free-lance program- tin Trudeau made it his number one European Union. He is now attached to mers in Russia, Georgia, and Macedo- foreign policy priority. Canadians the University of California, Berkeley, nia, kids who created fake sites with learned from Richard Nixon’s harsh and Ryerson University in Toronto. inflammatory stories—e.g., that Hill- unilateral assaults on all trading part- [email protected]

Policy 33

The other winner in the U.S. election—Russian President Vladimi Putin at the UN Security Council in January 2016. UN Flickr photo/Eskinder Debebe

Trump and the Erosion of the Western Consensus Yaroslav Baran

In just one year of headlines—the narrow Brexit refer- wo thousand seventeen may endum result, the election of a U.S. president who has well go down in history as T the year the post-war global or- questioned both NATO’s relevance and European unity, der was scrambled irreversibly. The last doubts about Russian involvement in the results of his year’s major electoral events amount to a loosening of the Western liberal- election—a narrative has emerged that would rational- democratic consensus to an unprec- ize what former Conservative adviser and Ukrainian edented degree, and to a weakening community activist Yaroslav Baran suggests may be an of the North Atlantic Treaty Organi- zation never before experienced since irreversible shift in the world order. the alliance was formed in 1949 as a common front against totalitarianism. Ukraine’s deputy prime minister and minister for Euro-Atlantic integration, Ivanna Klympush-Tsinsadze, made an astute observation during a recent speech in Ottawa. She noted that if

January/February 2017 34 anyone were to have suggested, five Five years ago, the European Union was thriving years ago, that a nuclear-armed Rus- sia would imminently invade a major and widely considered the most shining example of European country, they would have international cooperation and integration within a been laughed out of the park as a peaceful rules-based framework. The EU project was itself a hawkish loon or conspiracy theorist. proof point of the superiority of liberal-democratic values. Indeed, we all recall the guffaws endured by Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney in 2012 for naming Russia as the greatest threat Russia, albeit for different reasons: that Vladimir Putin is an admirable to global security. Greece in reaction to EU austerity leader with whom the U.S. should impositions, and Turkey in the wake mend relations, that NATO is an ob- Yet, here we are, at the beginning of of its own authoritarian post-coup solete anachronism, and that the U.S. 2017, with a now openly irredentist crackdown. should not necessarily live up to its and revanchist Russia having bared Article 5 obligations should belliger- The erosion of NATO unity is evident its teeth, occupied the Crimean Pen- ent Russia invade the Baltic states. insula in contravention of interna- in the contrasting tone between Brus- Indeed, Trump’s populism is rooted tional law, and nearly three years into sels itself and a growing number of in a fundamental iconoclasm that is a prolonged hot war against Ukraine the alliance’s member states. While challenging the major institutions on a second front in the east. it traditionally reflected the foreign policy of its united members like a underpinning the stability of not Five years ago, the European Union mirror, NATO Headquarters’ official only the United States but of the geo- was thriving and widely considered geopolitical pronouncements are political order: with a message track the most shining example of inter- now often contradicted at home with that may as well have been lifted from national cooperation and integra- relativist, isolationist and increasing- RT, he has challenged the integrity tion within a peaceful rules-based ly populist tunes coming from its na- of elections and democratic process- framework. The EU project was itself tional capitals. At best, its positioning es, the merit of trade liberalization, a proof point of the superiority of lib- now comes off as aspirational, and and the relevance of NATO. He has eral-democratic values. the office of the Secretary-General be- pledged to end the mutual wariness vis-à-vis Russia, and to work with Rus- NATO was strong and knew its pur- haves more as a press office than the sia to tackle ISIS. pose: it was the teeth behind the bark central command of history’s greatest of the liberal-democratic bloc of like- military force. As Canadian ex-pat and Atlantic edi- minded Western nations. It was an Almost everywhere we look, the West- tor David Frum noted on U.S. election essential pillar of the global security ern consensus appears to be crum- night, “We may be living through the order. And it was indivisible. bling. An isolationist May government most successful Russian intelligence in the UK is opting for a “hard-Brexit”, operation since the Rosenbergs stole Today’s EU faces growing anti-union the A-bomb.” movements from isolationist and eroding British-EU relations in the chauvinistically nationalist parties. process. Proto-fascist Marine Le Pen The picture has changed, the rules EU-skepticism is on the rise and the is outpolling competitors for the up- have changed, and the global geopolitical balance increasingly bears no confederation is preparing to embark coming French presidency, while the resemblance to the values-based dis- on divorce proceedings with one if its only “reasonable” alternative with a tinctions to which we have become most powerful members, the UK. winning chance appears to be Putin- apologist François Fillon. accustomed: the clear dividing line For its part, NATO is facing a crisis between rule-of-law democracies and Hard-right, Euro-skeptic or nationalist of confidence. Despite unquestioned pseudo-market tough-guy autocracies. governments and heads of state have supremacy in military capability, the been elected in Hungary, Poland, Mol- How has such a dramatic shift oc- alliance has remained largely idle as dova, Bulgaria, Estonia, and count- curred in such a short period of time? a resurgent Russia repeatedly checking—and Kremlin-backed movements The clues have been around us for mates the West’s diplomatic manoeu- and parties are on the rise in other some time, but have all become evi- vres over global flashpoints. countries such as Czech Republic, dent through the U.S. presidential campaign. Three significant factors he glue binding the Euro- Netherlands, France and Austria. have coalesced in the current reci- Atlantic alliance has been he coup de grâce came with pe for global instability: a blind eye weakened through rows among T the election of NATO-skeptic among many trade-liberalizing coun- member states. T Donald Trump as the next pres- tries to the demographics adversely Greece and Turkey, both NATO mem- ident of the United States. Trump’s affected by globalization; an informa- bers (and both traditionally wary of worldview, as distilled from his cam- tion age that facilitates fake news and one other), have both cozied up to paign-time pronouncements, holds fabricated dissent; and the emergence

Policy 35 of non-state terrorism as a global bo- nal ingredient in the cracking of the states to invest 2 per cent of GDP geyman. And all three have been ac- world order. These third parties have on defence, while Canada has con- tively harnessed by the one country perpetrated such atrocities that they sistently been coming in under half with the most to gain. have forced state actors to look to that value. If Poland, Greece and non-traditional tactical allies. An Estonia can hit the target, certainly s with every economic revolu- early example of this phenomenon there is no excuse for a G7 country tion, globalization has left came when Obama and Putin set like Canada not to, although it would some people behind. One of aside their differences over Russia’s A admittedly add significantly to the the greatest political failures of the war against Ukraine to deal with the federal deficit and debt. last three decades has been an in- Syrian crisis. Just as the menace of ability of many governments to suf- Nazi Germany provided a necessity The countries on the front lines of ficiently transition workers from the for the Allies and the Soviet Union to risk—such as Ukraine, Poland, Lat- old economy to the new. While gov- work together in the 1940s, Islamic via, Lithuania, Estonia and Georgia— ernments focused on the net benefits terror is now creating a pretext for re- must also step up their diplomatic of liberalized trade, along with the engagement between liberal democ- game in framing the current Russian GDP and job growth statistics that racies and predator states. threat for what it is, and countering would accrue, they tended to neglect the deluge of “cultural” and “infor- the human side of the equation: the two workers displaced so that the The old Soviet mational” projects flooding the West seven new jobs could be created. And method of from the Kremlin and its many proxy while trade liberalization is empiri- maintaining power was to institutions. cally a positive economic phenom- clamp down on information Finally, counterintelligence must be enon overall, it is also very real for stepped up across Europe. Almost all the mine worker whose mine was exchange and of the EU- or NATO-skeptic move- shuttered or the manufacturer whose communication. The ments of the last several years have factory was moved offshore. This ag- favoured method of its had a strong monetary or info-war gregate, legitimate, discontent has connection to the one country that become an irresistible raw ingredient successor is to embrace the stands to benefit most from a decline for the populist iconoclasts who lack information superhighway– the scruples about dabbling in the and weaponize it. of these two liberal-democratic insti- dark waters of stoking mass anger. tutions. Earlier detection, realistic assessment of threat, and stronger legal Likewise, the Information Age, for all frameworks that allow prosecution its economic and social benefits, has are required, lest the divide-and-con- provided critical infrastructure for quer trend continues. dissemination of anti-establishment thought. Discontent, dissent, pro- What next? The year ahead—not to mention the paganda and fake news have super- Where is NATO headed, then, and next four in their totality—will be a highways to reach audiences instan- what can be done to reverse the rapid critical test for the resilience of the taneously. Nothing short of a digital decline or its clout? First, the uncom- Western consensus, and specifically, front has opened in the geopolitical promised members of the alliance for the survival of the European Union contest. Actors such as Breitbart, RT will have to set this as a conscious and NATO. Let us pause to acknowl- and paid troll farms are now just as goal, and both Canada and Germany edge Mitt Romney was right, and let much a reality in political discourse will have to play a major part. us take the remedial steps to ensure and opinion formation as traditional Projects such as Operation Reassur- the 21st century does not revert to media and methods. Aided and abet- ance and Operation Unifier have to 19th century norms. We are past the ted by the closed-loop communities continue, with their mandates re- of interest formed by social media, point of being able to do this easily, newed. Canada is about to deploy and the effects of propaganda and but it must be done to save the global to Latvia to run one of four NATO hegemony of liberal-democratic val- fake news can be micro-targeted and battalions in the Baltic region. These ues—values that have always defined amplified. deterrent projects must proceed, and who we are as Canadians. The old Soviet method of maintaining NATO should build contingencies power was to clamp down on informa- should either of the major partners Contributing Writer Yaroslav Baran is tion exchange and communication. such as Britain or the United States The Ottawa president of the Ukrainian The favoured method of its successor reassign their resources. Canadian Congress and a former senior is to embrace the information super- While a difficult budgetary pill to communications advisor to Stephen highway—and weaponize it. swallow, we must also get used to the Harper. He is a principal with the The emergence of ISIS and other idea of investing more in defence. Earnscliffe Strategy Group. non-state terror entities are the fi- NATO guidelines call for member [email protected]

January/February 2017 36

The U.S. Capitol seen from the Canadian Embassy on Pennsylvania Avenue in Washington. It isn’t just the White House Canada has to deal with, but equally two Houses of Congress, both now controlled by the Republicans. As Paul Frazer notes, Washington is an incredibly complex town. Shutterstock photo Canada and the Ringmaster President Paul Frazer

The election of Donald Trump as president of the Unit- e don’t know what Don- ed States has bilateral relations experts scrambling for ald Trump’s victory will W mean for Canada-U.S. re- clues as to what this means for the Ottawa-Washington lations. We can’t even be sure what it policy axis. Veteran Canadian diplomat Paul Frazer, means for the U.S. The post-election en- now an established Canada-U.S. consultant based in vironment remains fluid. Trump’s supporters voted for disruption; they chose Washington, provides his early read on the next Oval someone they think is independent of Office occupant and how Canada should conduct itself the Republican Party “establishment” accordingly. and they expect him to deliver. Voters, tired of Washington, wanted a straight- talker to act deliberately despite breaking some dishes along the way.

Policy 37 Canada faces a “ringmaster” 45th Canada’s bilateral strengths with the U.S. are president who acts and speaks on his own terms and in his own time. He embedded in the facts of the relationship and a has provided scant detail about poli- history of sound bilateral co-operation and collaboration. cies or specific action he will take as But another strength can be a good understanding of the president. Random tweets on a wide incoming president. Trump has shown he is not a hostage variety of matters are the few clues about his post-election thinking. to ideology. Will the many issues in Canada-U.S. relations be dealt with primarily in 140 character bursts? Will the late- night tweet be the president’s public is less bombastic but he continues to cause and devise an approach to ap- approach to deciding/announcing be unpredictable. He will not auto- peal to the new administration, es- how an issue will be resolved? Is this matically be in line on party ortho- pecially the president’s self-image a new and serious dimension in bi- doxy and this will set the stage for and to his circle, to satisfy U.S. needs lateral relations? Possibly. political struggles on a range of eco- and meet Canadian interests. nomic and public policy issues. For The period between Prime Minister Initially, there may be few natural now, the party establishment and Justin Trudeau’s election and the matches, but if Ottawa can get be- the party’s rebel factions seem pre- November presidential vote allowed yond the Trump political theatre pared to give him some leeway. Ottawa to take stock of the Canada- there is potential to make progress in U.S. relationship and examine stra- Promoting and protecting bilateral promoting and protecting Canadian tegic options on TPP, NAFTA, soft- trade, economic and defence issues interests. requires that Canada have a clear wood, pipelines, climate change, Ottawa’s readiness to discuss NAFTA idea of national interests, goals and agriculture, border security and oth- with the incoming administration is objectives. This is a stiff challenge. It er border-related issues. a very good example of keeping the is important not to overreact; Cana- Regardless of who is president, the door open to dialogue rather than da must be vigilant, agile, cool and Canadian game plan in Washing- mounting a knee-jerk negative re- ready to act to support its interests. ton must also recognize the need to sponse to what appeared to be a se- In Washington, a talent for multi- work effectively with both Congress rious campaign promise. Trump’s tasking is invaluable. Official Wash- and the White House. The president ington is notoriously complex and statements on trade and tariffs are and Congress are not always on the fraught with political land mines. already generating some pushback same wavelength even if the presi- among Republicans in Congress. dent and the congressional majority Canada’s bilateral strengths with the Canadian ministers, ambassadors are (ostensibly) of the same party. U.S. are embedded in the facts of the and parliamentarians easily cite the Barack Obama had a majority in his relationship and a history of sound numbers on cross-border trade, in- first two years and discovered how bilateral co-operation and collabora- vestment, and U.S. jobs rooted in quickly that power dissipated. But tion. But another strength can be a the bilateral relationship. This is the at least he and the Democratic party good understanding of the incoming Canadian mantra in Washington. were reasonably united. president. Trump has shown he is not a hostage to ideology. His trans- However, today’s political circum- Trump’s victory has improved his actional nature and his results-ori- stances require that Canada actively relations with the Republican party ented approach offer opportunities take this key message beyond Wash- and together they’ve enjoyed the for Canada. By examining Trump’s ington as well, to those who voted post-victory moment. But given fun- stated interest in (and commitment Republican because of their serious damental discord within the party, to) “jobs, jobs, jobs” and support for malaise, even anger, over the impact doubts about his conservative cre- the middle class and growing pros- of globalization and the long, deep dentials and the Trump personality, perity, Ottawa may identify excel- recession on their personal lives and expect the road ahead to be rocky. lent entry points for a bilateral con- communities. The natural tensions between the versation about areas also close to House and the Senate as well as be- Anxiety knows no political bound- the political/policy heart of the pres- tween the president and Congress ary. Many Canadians are also con- ent Canadian government. could become more significant. cerned about their own growing Ottawa should consider approaching income inequality, job loss, and em- rump is enjoying the po- the bilateral relationship on an is- ployment uncertainty. One would litical epicentre. All suppli- sue-by-issue basis rooted in econom- be misguided to develop a strategy T cants file directly to him— ics and smart political strategy. Look based on a simplistic assessment of some more than once. His manner closely at potential areas of common U.S. voters this year.

January/February 2017 38 ttawa can argue that what it Anxiety knows no America to emerge in protectionist wants for Canadians on legislation on trade and domestic in- political boundary. O these issues is what the frastructure initiatives; U.S. actions president-elect wants for Americans. Many Canadians are also taken against others could readily Methods and approaches will be dif- concerned about their own sideswipe Canada. ferent but that does not preclude growing income inequality, The prime minister and the new pres- successful efforts to reach common job loss, and employment ident differ from each other in many ground on specific issues and set a ways. These differences must not be positive tone for managing relations. uncertainty. One would be allowed to impede their ability to misguided to develop a manage the relationship. This “new- The Trump administration will not strategy based on a ness” is an important opportunity be the first one to be inadequately simplistic assessment of U.S. for both to meet, to get to know each prepared for the U.S.-Canada rela- other, to test each other’s mettle and tionship. The sooner it learns the voters this year. to explore opportunities together. core facts and sees the collaborative opportunities, the better. In this period, Ottawa should continue to consider the potential im- Canada must move quickly beyond pact of any proposed Canadian pol- impressions and uncertainty and he incoming vice president icy—foreign or domestic—that can work to define the relationship in is another critical entry be ill-perceived or misunderstood constructive and imaginative ways. T point. He is emerging as a south of the 49th parallel. I am not Show the administration how work- sound, stable and trusted voice in suggesting that Ottawa be silent so ing with Canada can pay dividends; the new administration. As gover- much as strategic in the manner that how building on what exists will en- nor of Indiana, he was very active it rolls out certain measures. Ottawa hance U.S. and Canadian economic, on trade and investment and will did an excellent job positioning the job creation, and middle class inter- appreciate Indiana’s role within the Canadian program for Syrian refu- ests. I suspect Mr. Trump will un- Canada-U.S. economic/trade context gees. Confidence building measures derstand before most that there are with its almost 190, 000 Canada-de- can be critically important. excellent opportunities on the bilat- pendent jobs and nearly $12 billion As other prime ministers have dis- eral horizon in keeping with his own in high-value exports to Canada. covered, there are many “Pentagon views; but he needs a straightforward We won’t have a clear picture of the pipsqueaks” who claim to speak for a brief that speaks his language. full range of cabinet choices, White party, for Congress or for the White House advisors and senior appoin- House. This can be avoided and need “Canada” was not an issue in the tees for departments and agencies not derail or taint bilateral efforts. presidential campaign nor is it a until the confirmation hearings in Given the disparity between the char- source of present anxiety. Few Amer- early 2017. The new Congress will be acter of the government of the day icans recognize Canada as a NAFTA in place before the new president’s in Ottawa and that which is forming partner. They don’t know the real re- inauguration on January 20. the new U.S. administration, Canada lationship nor the value that accrues needs to devise the best calculus to to them from it. Canada should use International events and U.S. do- work with Washington while promot- this to engage the new administra- mestic developments will impact the ing and protecting Canadian interests. tion and the Congress. There are administration’s ability to focus on a consistent, constructive bilateral role Trump trampled long-standing norms members of the House and Senate with Canada, let alone on interna- in his presidential campaign. Cana- in both parties who are Canada’s al- tional issues of mutual interest. But da must identify the new points of lies on many issues. But this can’t be the bilateral aspect is a long game contact with a larger-than-life Pres- taken for granted and must be en- and Canada must do the bigger job ident-elect and use them effectively hanced and broadened. of keeping both players on track. to secure a relationship larger than both national leaders. Americans, generally, are open to in- This requires Ottawa’s diligence, pa- Paul Frazer is President of PD Frazer formation, they will listen and they tience and a clear-headed strategy. Associates in Washington. He advises can be practical when challenged There will be early setbacks. Inter- to address a matter relevant to their corporate and public sector clients on minable softwood discussions have Canada-U.S. cross-border issues. He (political) interests. They will not clearly demonstrated that some isis a former Canadian diplomat and “roll over” on an issue to favor Can- sues have no easy resolution. Ca- served as Minister, Public Affairs at the ada and it is therefore incumbent on nadian frustrations will increase on Canadian Embassy in Washington, Ottawa to devise the strategic case to some subjects until Canadian and and at postings in Warsaw, Prague meet U.S. needs while serving Cana- U.S. decision-makers get a sense of (as ambassador) and in New York. dian interests. each other. Expect issues such as Buy [email protected]

Policy 39

Thinkstock photo Chance and Change Robin V. Sears

How could America transform from the country that ike most Canadians, I grew up elected Barack Obama president twice to the caul- fascinated by America: its music, L its movies, its wars, its politics. dron of resentment and enmity that produced Donald But overarching all that was our be- Trump’s implausible success in November? Veteran po- musement at its loud patriotism. As students, we would giggle at the idea litical strategist Robin Sears weighs the events in ques- of a Pledge of Allegiance every morn- tion and attributes this American moment, at least in ing. The 40-foot Stars and Stripes on used car dealership flagpoles we’d see part, to the role of chance in history. on road trips were similarly a source of teenage Canadian sneers. Our sanctimony was always mixed with not a little envy. The existential crises that we grew up on in the 1970s, 80s and 90s in Canada were not something Americans would ever experience. We would blush at their inquiries about our ongoing constitutional navel-gazing.

January/February 2017 40 They knew who they were; they were If Joe Biden had been his opponent would Trump be Americans. president? If Hillary Clinton could have understood How the world has changed. earlier and better the power of white working-class anger, Canadians now feel a collective pride in our achievements in the arts, tech, could she have found the less than 200,000 votes in the sports and on a global stage. We brag right places she needed to win? about our social tolerance. We are proud and nationalistic to a degree never seen before – even if still more quietly, and deferentially, than our American cousins. histories are sneered at by academ- By chance, equipment failure killed We now watch with increasing anxi- ics. They prefer the more determinist a helicopter on a dangerous mission ety as the nation closest to us, emo- analysis of events, however improb- and nearly killed the Carter presiden- tionally as well as geographically, able their claims of causality. cy as a result. By chance, pilot error killed a helicopter on a later danger- appear to be ripping its society apart. Legendary Cambridge scholar Aileen ous mission, but partly due to lessons First came the rage that followed Kelly chose The Discovery of Chance learned a generation earlier, the mis- 9/11, the ill-starred wars in Iraq and as the title of her marvellous recently sion resulted in the killing of Osama Afghanistan. Then the thinly veiled published book on the too-little re- bin Laden and boosting Obama’s racism that Barack Obama’s elections spected Russian revolutionary and presidency as a result. opened up. This year was capped by philosopher Alexander Herzen. Al- a massive increase in attention to po- most alone among thinkers of his The greatest leaders are always the lice killing young black men, and as- era, Herzen rejected the teleological best opportunists, not merely the sassins killing ambushed cops. theory of history, the conviction that greatest strategic thinkers. the human story had a goal, a driv- In 1941, Winston Churchill knew he ll this was taken to scary new ing narrative. He also rejected the up- needed to change the American mili- levels by the peak of the 2016 ward advance of progress propound- tary’s strategic conception and sense A US election cycle. The rheto- ed most famously by Marx. For this, of urgency about the war ahead. He ric and the rage may have been a he was excoriated by former allies on judged correctly that there was lin- return to the American political both the right and left. gering doubt among the generals nativism and isolationism of gen- As Kelly observes, if only the world about FDR’s secret war agenda. So, in erations ago. To most Canadians, it had not been so obsessed by such arro- response to a casual suggestion from was unheard of and unacceptable. gant views of our place in the universe FDR that they should meet soon; in “What were Americans doing to and our ability to manipulate events defiance of his wife, his cabinet, and themselves?” was the theme of many as we saw fit, we might have avoided his own military leaders, he sailed conversations on Canadian summer much of the tragedy and bloodshed of across the Atlantic, inviting himself to docks and fall campuses. Then the the 20th century. At the same time, spend nearly three weeks at the White unthinkable happened and Donald though, it would have consoled us House for Christmas. All were terrified Trump was elected president. he might get killed by a U-boat cross- more at times such as these, days of ing the wintry North Atlantic. It is human nature to forget previous the election of foul-mouthed fools to dark chapters as a way of keeping a high office. Donald Trump was nei- He inveigled his way into every high- positive gaze on future horizons. But, ther inevitable nor is he predictive of level meeting, irritating the U.S. brass American optimism notwithstand- a grim future. He is merely one more repeatedly with his insistent inter- ing, human experience is neither a unfortunate proof of chance. ventions. He kept FDR up late drink- virtuous spiral upwards, nor as entire- ing and plotting. He drove Eleanor ly circular as some religious zealots ut as Herzen also wisely ob- Roosevelt to distraction roaming the would claim. It is, frustratingly, too serves, chance has thousands White House halls in the middle of often merely a journey whose path is of possible paths. There is no the night in his pajamas, in search of determined by mere chance. B excuse for fatalism in accepting the another nightcap. If Joe Biden had been his opponent reality of chance, therefore. There Churchill’s war strategy had one would Trump be president? If Hill- is, indeed, every reason to try to central pillar: get the U.S. commit- ary Clinton could have understood nudge history onto a higher and bet- ted early, heavily and irreversibly. earlier and better the power of white ter path. Of course, every successful He leapt on a chance to move it for- working-class anger, could she have leader needs a strategic vision and an ward decisively, seized it, and single- found the less than 200,000 votes in agenda but it is their ability to ride handedly transformed the U.S./U.K. the right places she needed to win? the changes that chance throws at strategic relationship that very dark The counterfactuals of alternative them that determines their success. Christmas of 1940.

Policy 41 Now, this new insurgent president, The $15 minimum wage is an essen- discipline that enforces those expec- unthinkable a year ago, is famous for tial—it would have an instant impact tations, and some early proofs that it bragging about his deal-making, his on the lives of millions of Americans, can deliver benefits—on both sides of skill at seizing chance and opportuni- and pump significant spending pow- the divide. ty. He is meanwhile being challenged er into the entire economy. A second by all the institutions of the Ameri- high-impact political signal would can republic not to undo generations be to wipe out tax scams like ‘carried Canada is a country of work in foreign policy, economic interest.’ It is a hard fiddle to under- whose values are policy and the building of a socially stand, except when you explain that becoming more broadly tolerant American society. They are it costs billions in lost tax revenue all seized of the importance of nudg- and it means that hedge fund manag- and deeply shared, across ing their new president away from ers can pay lower taxes on the bulk of all communities and some of his more astonishing prom- their income than Walmart employ- generations. America ised follies, with some early signs of ees do on their overtime pay. however, appears to be success. Few put the chance of com- In the short term, before the next U.S. plete success in avoiding pratfalls moving in the opposite mid-term elections in 2018, real im- very high. Others doubt his real skill direction. provement in the public services that at negotiations when the deck isn’t make a difference in working fami- loaded. We shall see. lies’ lives will need to be visible: tran- Marx was right in his analysis of the sit, road and bridge renewal; school, political consequences of poverty and hospital and Veterans’ Affairs facili- political despair. They are inevitably ties and services. The crisis in com- Americans need a leader to help them destabilizing of every society, especial- munity safety and relations between to recapture that unconditional pa- ly in the face of rising and flagrantly African Americans and the police will triotism about which Canadians were displayed wealth on the part of the need to have seen progress as well. a little envious a generation ago. A few—and in a state whose muscle shared conviction that did not come seems devoted to protecting the one in blue or in red, one that was indi- per cent. He misjudged how identity one of this is rocket science visible. A leader like Obama, ironi- politics and ethnic nationalism could N in policy or political terms. cally, would be ideal for the task. be used to take that desperation to the As Michael Adams and others have right, however. Trump did not. Here he is in conversation with New amply demonstrated in recent years, Yorker editor David Remnick, re- Canada is a country whose values are counting what he said to his daugh- becoming more broadly and deeply ters about the Trump upheaval: So, now what? shared, across all communities and “What I say to them is that people are A healing process is urgent and essen- generations. America however, ap- complicated…This is not mathemat- tial, as further division may generate pears to be moving in the opposite ics, this is chemistry and biology… more violence and scars that would direction. With the benefit of strong and it’s messy…And you should an- take a generation to heal. Sadly, it is national standards in law, health hard to see any credible leaders deep- and education, the diversity in Ca- ticipate that at any given moment ly committed to the reconciliation nadian values is narrowing, while, there may be flare-ups of bigotry that process that healing requires. Harder paradoxically, Canadians have never you may have to confront or [they] still to see what their hook as a moti- been more ethnically diverse. It is a may be inside you and [you] have to vational message might be. triumph of the host culture’s power vanquish [them]…You don’t get into in integrating newcomers—but it is a fetal position. You don’t start wor- The curse of race that has afflicted a success, perhaps, that it is not infi- rying about the apocalypse. You say, American history since its creation nitely elastic. okay, where are the places where I seems to be on one of its cyclical rises to more violence and more heart- Trump’s America must now struggle can push to keep it moving forward.” break. The will to walk the danger- with how to regenerate and raise the In other words, perhaps, there will ously narrow path to sanity on immi- level of shared respect for differing be change—and some of it may be gration reform seems astonishingly values, and how to lower the temper- unpleasant—but despair is not an absent. Perhaps the only policy av- ature of political rhetoric while rais- answer. enue that might throw a line across ing the expected standards for that the cultural chasm is direct economic dialogue. It will not be easy because it Contributing Writer Robin V. Sears, a assistance to those hardest hit by the will require a suspension of disbelief former national director of the NDP, near-stagnation in American wages on the part of wounded partisans on is a principal of Earnscliffe Strategy in the last two decades. all sides, an unwavering leadership Group. [email protected]

January/February 2017 42

Column / Lisa Van Dusen Trump’s Doctrine of Unpredictability

onald Trump is arguably Is there a Trump doctrine? Do doc- to include a domestic audience and the least Canadian president trines matter in a post-truth universe turbocharged by Twitter. Nothing D of the United States since (an asinine concept that only serves Trump can do now would surprise the president before Barack Obama, the purveyors of lies by legitimizing us, which is wildly uncharted presi- who has been the most Canadian the notion that truth can be obso- dential territory and more than a American president since Raymond lete, like an iPhone 4)? Maybe Henry little unsettling as an unprecedented Massey played Lincoln. Kissinger, who met with Mr. Trump source of power. this week to de-brief on the option- Obama was more popular among It allowed him to plausibly flout de- multiplying China-Taiwan reset, Canadians than our own leaders cades of established U.S. foreign pol- would describe the Trump doctrine were during his eight years in office icy with the Taiwan overture just as as an adaptation of his famous quote and more popular here than there it will allow him to plausibly acqui- about enemies: “There is no truth, largely because he was what we like esce to China on another file when only interests.” to think of ourselves as, whether we the time comes. He has already nor- always are or not: Cool, worldly and Mr. Trump is a practitioner of tacti- malized the abnormal, which gives unflappable. He had a beer summit. cal unpredictability. From the mo- him a license to act in a vacuum of ment on June 16, 2015 when he rode rational expectation. It’s hard to find anything that Cana- down that escalator and declared The Trump administration’s Cana- dian about Donald Trump. Unlike his candidacy for the Republican dian interlocutors can adopt one of most Canadian tourists, the time he presidential nomination by calling two postures in the face of this sur- spends in Trump Tower is, presum- Mexicans murderers and rapists be- real reality. They can function from ably, un-ironic. He has much more fore proceeding to win the Republi- the premise that behaviour that money than most of us would really can presidential nomination despite can’t be predicted based on any of want or know what to do with. He such behavior, he has both con- the traditional metrics is impossible only ever apologizes under duress. tributed to and benefited from the to approach strategically and there- If national leaders represent differ- radical recalibration of our collective fore we should just close our embas- ent aspects of stereotypical national suspension of disbelief. sy in Washington. character, Donald Trump represents This allows Mr. Trump to meet with an American stereotype I never re- famous environmentalists with Or, they can energetically cultivate ally bought into even before I lived a straight face the day before ap- Vice President Mike Pence as a Trump in the U.S. for 13 years: brash, bellig- pointing a climate change denier to whisperer, spend a lot more time on erent, xenophobic and omnivorous. head the Environmental Protection Capitol Hill and find new ways to love governors. Either way, it likely In diplomatic terms, Mr. Trump’s Agency because he has conditioned won’t be like anything they’ve lived personality, especially the un-chart- the shock out of us over months of through before, including sleeping able, reality-show version on display flagrant contradictions, incendiary with an elephant. during the campaign, has spawned a tweets, flamboyant threats and dou- new form of Kremlinology among bible-denial denials that make the pre- Lisa Van Dusen, associate editor of lateral relations experts that includes Trumpian political convention of Policy, was a Washington columnist the parsing of 3 a.m. tweets and, post-misspeaking clarification seem for The Ottawa Citizen, US and quite possibly, the binge-watching like an overweening bit from the 90s foreign affairs columnist for Sun Media of multiple seasons of a game show SNL duo the British Fops. and international news writer for Peter whose contestants included Gary There has been speculation that it’s Jennings at ABC World News Tonight Busey and Boy George for clues as to a 21st-century version of Richard as well as an editor at AP in New York where he might stand on the perpet- Nixon’s madman theory that having and UPI in Washington. She is now ually intractable softwood lumber foreign leaders think he was volatile also a deputy news editor at iPolitics. dispute or Arctic sovereignty. gave him an advantage, expanded [email protected]

Policy 43 Clean Energy in America: Too Good a Deal for Trump to Pass Up Dan Woynillowicz and Merran Smith

While Donald Trump has tempered his rhetoric on climate If that wasn’t grim enough, Trump had claimed that climate change was change since the election campaign, it remains unclear ex- a hoax concocted by the Chinese, and actly where his energy policy will fall in the range between campaigned on pulling the United climate denial and climate change leadership. Clean En- States out of the Paris climate agreement. Often put forward as a key solu- ergy Canada’s Dan Woynillowicz and Merran Smith argue tion to climate change, renewable en- that Trump, being a businessman, will look at both the ergy might be trying to fix something he just doesn’t believe is a problem. numbers of a U.S. energy economy that has changed drasti- Trump’s perceived ambivalence—if cally under Barack Obama and the political realities of the not hostility—towards renewable en- issue and do the pragmatic thing. ergy, sent stock prices for clean energy companies spiraling following the election.

Then, in a November 22 interview n the days following the election American coal industry—putting an with The New York Times, Trump left that will put Donald Trump in the end to the “war on coal”—and he the door open for a climate policy White House, media coverage had little good to say about renew- I less unequivocal than his campaign able energy. In fact, his most substan- about the prospects for America’s clean pronouncements telegraphed. energy sector read like an obituary. tive position on clean energy was his opposition to an offshore wind farm “I have a very open mind,” Trump After all, President-elect Trump had that would be visible from his seaside told the gathering of the paper’s re- promised to resurrect the moribund golf resort in Aberdeen, Scotland. porters, editors and columnists. “And

Figure 1: There are More Jobs in Solar than Oil and Gas, and Coal Extraction in the U.S.

220,000 COAL MINING

200,000 OIL AND GAS EXTRACTION

180,000 SOLAR

JOBS 160,000

140,000

120,000 2012 2013 2014 2015

Sources: International Renewable Energy Agency, U.S. Bureau of Statistics

January/February 2017 Solar (with tax credits)

Solar (without tax credits)

Wind (with tax credits)

Wind (without tax credits)

LCOE TOTAL Natural Gas

Advanced Nuclear

Advanced Coal

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 $140 /MWh 44 I’m going to study a lot of the things The advanced energy market in the U.S.— that happened on it and we’re go- comprised of renewable energy, building efficiency, ing to look at it very carefully. But I have an open mind.” And, on Dec. 5, electric vehicles, energy storage and cleantech Trump held an unscheduled meeting manufacturing—is valued at US$200 billion, according to with former Vice President and cli- Advanced Energy Economy. mate change policy activist Al Gore.

The answer to whether a Trump presidency will spell the end of progressive energy policy in the U.S. isn’t as support federally, not just from the states have renewable portfolio stan- clear as you might think, both for po- White House but from Congress, too. dards, which mandate that a grow- litical and economic reasons. In December 2015, a Republican-led ing proportion of electricity come The reality is that the politics of clean Congress passed an extension of the from renewable sources. The top five energy aren’t as partisan as many peo- tax credits that have done much to states in terms of proportion of elec- ple presume. To the contrary, clean bolster the growth of wind and solar. tricity generated by wind are all red energy seems to be the only form of While some commentators have sug- states, led by Republican governors. energy production that has success- gested that Trump will revoke these Ditto North Carolina, which trails fully transcended partisan politics in credits as part of his bid to stimu- only California in the development the United States. late coal-fired power, revoking them of new solar projects. would require a serious—and contro- hile it may come as a sur- versial—legislative effort. When it comes to total wind power capacity, many people are surprised prise, Trump’s supporters Rolling back these credits wouldn’t to learn that Texas leads the way by a strongly support renew- just be controversial among Demo- W long-shot. More surprising still is that able energy. A survey conducted by crats, but also with numerous Repub- it was none other than former Gov- Public Opinion Strategies, a Repub- lican lawmakers who have renewable ernor (and subsequently President) lican pollster, days after the election energy manufacturing and develop- George W. Bush who first passed found that three-quarters of Trump ment in their states—lawmakers like state legislation requiring Texas utili- voters support “action to accelerate Republican Senator Chuck Grassley ties to produce renewable power. the development and use of clean of Iowa—a powerful member of the Subsequent Republican governors in energy.” A majority of Trump vot- Senate Finance Committee—who Texas have carried this effort forward, ers want to see—in order of prefer- said last summer: “If he wants to do increasing those requirements over ence—more emphasis on solar (61 away with it, he’ll have to get a bill time and driving investment in trans- per cent), hydropower (56 per cent), through Congress, and he’ll do it mission infrastructure to bring power wind and natural gas (tied at 52 per over my dead body.” from its windy plains to its big cities. cent). Coal clocked in with only 38 per cent support. This preference He won’t be the only Republican was evidenced on election night in pushing back: looking across the ut whether clean energy con- Florida where, at the same time Flo- country—and the electoral map— tinues to boom in the U.S isn’t ridians delivered their support to the top 10 wind-energy producing B just a function of politics. It’s Trump, they voted to maintain un- congressional districts are represent- also about economics. The Obama limited opportunities for the expan- ed by Republicans. administration’s “All of the Above” sion of rooftop solar. energy policy included major clean learly, President Trump will energy incentives and investments While the media—and liberals—have find that the politics of that have transformed the U.S. en- often made the case for clean energy C boosting coal at the expense ergy landscape, beginning with the by invoking its role as a solution to of renewable energy aren’t nearly as $90 billion allotted to clean energy climate change, it has numerous oth- simple as candidate Trump may have investment in the post-financial er attributes that significantly broad- thought. And that doesn’t just apply crisis American Recovery and Rein- en its base of support. Things like the inside the Beltway. As in Canada, the vestment Act of 2009. Among other public health benefits of cutting back U.S federal government has relatively changes, since President Obama took on coal-fired power, energy security, limited authority to make decisions office, the U.S. has increased solar and technological innovation that is about electricity, which is largely the electricity generation by more than creating new business opportunities purview of the states. twenty-fold, and tripled electricity and new jobs. production from wind power. Looking across the American map, A bipartisan base of support has en- both blue states and red states have The advanced energy market in the abled clean energy to benefit from been big boosters of clean energy: 29 U.S.—comprised of renewable energy,

Policy 220,000 COAL MINING

200,000 OIL AND GAS EXTRACTION

180,000 SOLAR

JOBS 160,000

140,000

120,000 2012 2013 2014 2015 45

Figure 2: Total Levelized Cost of Energy in the United States (2022)

Solar (with tax credits)

Solar (without tax credits)

Wind (with tax credits)

Wind (without tax credits)

LCOE TOTAL Natural Gas

Advanced Nuclear

Advanced Coal

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 $140 /MWh

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration building efficiency, electric vehicles, falling, down 61 and 82 per cent re- With hundreds of state-level policies energy storage and cleantech manu- spectively, between 2009 and 2015. that aren’t going to disappear, hun- facturing—is valued at US$200 bil- As these technologies continue to dreds of thousands of jobs (and the lion, according to Advanced Energy scale—and improve through contin- potential for many more), increasing Economy. And per Bloomberg New ued innovation—the costs are pro- cost competitiveness and market de- Energy Finance, the U.S saw US$56 jected to keep falling. The result? mand, it’s clear that significant in- billion in clean energy investment— Wind power is already cost competi- vestment in clean energy is poised to second only to China—in 2015. tive with natural gas, and solar is well continue—with or without President on its way—outcompeting natural Trump’s support. That kind of investment creates a lot gas isn’t far off. of jobs: almost 210,000 Americans While most people—and the stock are now employed in the solar in- markets—seem to think Trump will be dustry, a doubling over 2010 figures. Based on growth projections, these bad for clean energy’s prospects in the In fact, since 2009 the solar indus- United States, that gloomy outlook try has created one out of every 80 sectors are just getting seems unfounded. If we learned any- jobs in the United States. The Bureau started: it’s estimated that thing from the campaign, it was that of Labour notes that wind turbine the solar industry could we should expect the unexpected. technician is the fastest growing oc- employ 420,000 people by cupation in the country, and 88,000 If President Trump is as good a busi- people are employed in the wind 2020, and the wind nessman and politician as he believes energy sector. Based on growth pro- industry could employ he is, the odds are clean energy will jections, these sectors are just get- 380,000 by 2030. These actually do just fine. For the author of ting started: it’s estimated that the aren’t small numbers. The Art of the Deal, clean energy offers solar industry could employ 420,000 a deal too good to pass up. people by 2020, and the wind industry could employ 380,000 by 2030. Dan Woynillowicz is Policy Director of These aren’t small numbers. Clean Energy Canada at Simon Fraser This competitiveness is one of the University. [email protected] Would Trump want to put these good major reasons so many major Ameri- Merran Smith is Executive Director of jobs—and potential for further job can companies—including Google, Clean Energy Canada and serves on the growth—in jeopardy? It’s doubtful. Walmart, Dow Chemical, Amazon and Microsoft—are committing to board of the Canadian Climate Forum. Looking at dollars and cents—and renewable energy and signing big [email protected] customers’ wallets—it’s also worth contracts for wind and solar. As highlighting that the unsubsidized Walmart likes to say, “watch out for cost of wind and solar just keeps falling prices.”

January/February 2017 46

Column / Don Newman Sorry for Getting It Right

am sorry. I was right. In the Sep- reputation was that he didn’t like to prejudices and believe instead infor- tember-October edition of Policy I concern himself with details, that mation that confirms their biases. outlined how Donald Trump turned out to be his greatest strength. I Trump’s improbable claim that he planned to win the presidency of the Carter was a one-term President, and would bring back industrial manu- United States. when he was defeated and Reagan facturing jobs certainly motivated came to office, the new president As the results came in on the night white unemployed blue collar work- wisely staffed much of his adminis- of November 8, it turned out that ers in winning margins in both 2008 tration with people who had served he had followed the blueprint I had quite recently in government in the and 2012 but this time ensured outlined, captured the industrial administrations of Richard Nixon Trump’s victory. “rust belt” states around the Great and Gerald Ford. People like George Lakes and won. But the lack of support from black Schultz, Casper Weinberger, Jim Bak- Americans who traditionally vote I admit, I watched the returns with er and quite a few others knew the Democratic and twice elected the first mixed emotions. Satisfied that I had files, knew how government worked black president was also a big factor correctly seen how the race would and knew how to deal with Congress. in Clinton’s loss. unfold, but shocked that the Ameri- By and large, Trump’s cabinet is pop- cans had elected as their president a Clinton lost Michigan by a slim ulated by people like himself; wealthy liar, a misogynist, racist, bigot, tax 12,000 votes. In this election in business people with no government evader with a temper, little curiosity Wayne County, which encompasses experience, no foreign or domestic and a short attention span. Detroit and is almost all black, 78,000 policy experience and little indica- fewer people voted than in 2012. If As well, Trump has no experience in tion that they have much interest in only 13,000 of the stay-at-homes had government or governing, no mili- either. We are about to see how that voted, Clinton, not Trump, would tary experience and no interest in turns out. have won the state. public policy. hile we get ready for what- In Wisconsin, Clinton lost the state Now, Trump is setting off on a four- ever comes from President by 27,000 votes. In the state’s big city, year mandate to lead the United Trump, it is almost cer- Milwaukee, which is majority black, States, and by extension, the free W tain to continue what has become a 39,000 fewer people voted than did world. Some optimists have tried to very unpleasant trend. His election equate Trump’s victory over Hillary in 2012 for Barack Obama. It is a fair capped the most crude, divisive and Clinton with Ronald Reagan’s defeat guess that there as well most of the unaccountable campaign in American of Jimmy Carter in 1980. After all, non-voters this time were black. history. Trump remains so unaccount- Reagan turned out to be, by many able that instead of meeting with re- Trump had claimed during the cam- estimations, the best president of the porters as candidates have always paign that black Americans would second half of the 20th century. done in the past, Trump just sends vote for him because they had noth- As comforting as that comparison out tweets on Twitter commenting on ing to lose. They didn’t vote for him. would be, it is inaccurate. When he whatever crosses his mind. But by enough of them not voting defeated Carter, Reagan had already at all it turns out that they did have Journalists will now have to come to something to lose. And so did every- been governor of California for two terms with how they deal with this body else. terms. True, he had been a movie ac- development. So far, fact checking by tor for much of his career, but he had major media organizations doesn’t Don Newman is Senior Counsel at acquired governing experience in seem to have done much good. In Navigator Ltd. and Ensight Canada, the biggest state of the union, with an era where the Oxford dictionaries Chairman of Canada 2020 and a a population slightly larger than all now recognize “post-truth” as a word, lifetime member of the Canadian of Canada. people seem to disregard anything Parliamentary Press Gallery. Even more important, while Reagan’s that does not conform with their own [email protected]

Policy 47

Canada and the World

A piper at the beginning of the state memorial for Jim Prentice in Calgary on October 28. Three former prime ministers attended, as did five sitting provincial premiers. Photo courtesy Government of Alberta Protocol Office Jim Prentice: A Deputy Minister’s Appreciation Richard Dicerni

n September 15, 2014 Jim Thus began the renewal of a poli- the Lougheed years, during which the Prentice was sworn in as Al- tician-bureaucrat relationship that senior echelons of the Alberta govern- O berta’s 16th premier. The had been established when I was his ment were meaningful partners with previous year, in a convocation ad- deputy minister at Industry Canada the body politic and were thought dress to the graduating class at the in 2007. leaders in public policy across the Alberta School of Business, he had In one of our early meetings in the fall country. He emphasized that he want- urged the students to be bold. “Serve of 2014, he set out his major objec- ed a professional public service where your community and your country,” tives for the province: the need to en- truth could be spoken to power with- he had said. “Make your family and sure meaningful sustainable develop- out fear of retribution or permanent your nation proud.” He had taken ment; the priority of getting product career damage. One of his first actions his own advice and returned to pub- to tidewater; the importance of forg- as premier was to communicate this lic service. ing on a number of fronts a new re- vision directly to the top 250 officials In the weeks preceding his swearing lationship with the First Nations and of the government. in, he had reached out to me asking the goal of economic diversification. Looking back, I always thought Jim if I would consider the post of depu- We discussed in particular his objec- Prentice would have been a superb ty minister of the Executive Council tive of rebuilding a public service that deputy minister and, on some days, of Alberta. After a few discussions, I had become demoralized and less ef- he may have preferred it to the job of accepted. fective than it could be. He referenced minister or premier.

January/February 2017 48 But he had chosen a different path— He emphasized that he wanted a professional a more difficult and more demanding one. He wanted to contribute to the public service where truth could be spoken to power public good of his province and his without fear of retribution or permanent career damage. country; he wanted to make a difference in the lives and hopes of people; he wanted to leave a legacy of which people would say, “He has improved on what he inherited”. He had cho- Jim Prentice was not just a good min- duced legislation to give First Nations sen to be a politician. ister; he was an exceptional one. He individuals, particularly those living always kept his eye on the broad stra- on reserve, access to the full protec- ew Canadians appreciate how tegic objectives without losing sight tions of the Canadian Human Rights demanding and taxing the of the required political exigencies of Act and launched consultations that F life of a political leader is. Few the short term. The ultimate compli- ultimately led to legislation that gave Canadians are aware of the number ment in the senior bureaucracy about First Nations women, for the first of birthday parties or special anniver- a minister: he could take a brief. time, strong legal protection of their saries that get missed, the number of matrimonial property rights. Starting family vacations that get messed up with a very early appearance at the because “duty calls”. Few Canadians Jim Prentice was not 2006 Assembly of First Nations con- have a sense of the toll that political just a good minister; vention, he quickly earned respect as life takes on spouses and children of a candid and respectful interlocutor, political leaders. Few Canadians un- he was an exceptional one. who was determined to find com- derstand the physical hardships in- He always kept his eye on mon ground and put the country on volved in flying and or driving the the broad strategic a path to healing and progress. five, six or more hours it takes to get to the riding from Ottawa. Political objectives without losing In August 2007, he was appoint- life has many rewards but it also has sight of the required political ed minister of Industry, where he significant demands and travails. worked with the captains of industry, exigencies of the short term. especially in the aerospace and auto- Fortunately, Jim Prentice was always The ultimate compliment in mobile sectors, to enhance Canada’s supported—personally and profes- the senior bureaucracy industrial footprint. He launched sionally—by Karen, without whom the first- ever auction for cell phone he could not have pursued his goals about a minister: he could spectrum with a view to enhancing and his dreams. She was his best take a brief. choice for consumers. He was the first friend, his wife, his partner and the minister to use section 20 of the In- love of his life. Senior leadership po- vestment Canada Act to reject a pro- sitions in public service often extract posed foreign acquisition of a major more in the short term than they give Canadian company because he did back. In order to be successful and to is first cabinet assignment not believe it met the net benefit test. survive in public life, one needs to was Indian and Northern Af- He was a champion of industry but be in love and loved. Jim and Karen fairs. The early days were also a defender of consumers. Prentice were. H turbulent, dominated by the crisis at In the fall of 2008, he was moved Jim Prentice, between January 2006 Caledonia, Ontario, and the reper- to the Environment portfolio. Even and November 2010, held three se- cussions of the government’s deci- though he was disappointed at leav- nior ministerial portfolios: he was sion not to implement the Kelowna ing Industry, given the key linkages minister of Indian and Northern Af- Accord. Michael Wernick, his former he had established and the chal- fairs, minister of Industry and min- deputy minister, recalls that Prentice lenges facing Canada in the midst of ister of the Environment. Michael was determined to tackle the legacy the Great Recession, he took on his Wernick, who was Jim’s deputy min- of history that was impeding a new new portfolio with focus and deter- ister at INAC and who is now clerk of relationship and brighter future mination. He challenged his deputy, the Privy Council, summed it up best with First Nations. He persuaded his Paul Boothe, to do what was neces- in a note he sent to all federal public cabinet colleagues to implement the sary “to make Environment Canada servants upon learning of the tragic tentative agreement to end the class a world class regulator”. During his death of his former boss: actions by former students of residen- time at Environment Canada, he ini- “He was the kind of Minister pub- tial schools. He secured cabinet ap- tiated a national policy to phase out lic servants love to work for—smart, proval for what became the Specific coal-fired electricity plants, led a fed- tough-minded, decisive and unfail- Claims Tribunal to bring resolution eral-provincial approach to improve ingly respectful and warm in his in- to hundreds of historic grievances the treatment of waste water, and teractions with us.” around moneys and lands. He intro- significantly expanded the national

Policy 49 had made to his father. He proved that public service—politics—can be an honourable profession in which policies and ideas can be debated without compromising one’s integrity and identity.

Jim was looking forward to reenter- ing policy debates in Canada with the publication of his book Triple Crown: Winning Canada’s Energy Future. He wanted to make another contribution to Canada. He was going to argue that the current energy policy is not working.; that a new vision is needed for converting our nation’s vast resources into a secure, prosperous and envi- ronmentally responsible future that will benefit all Canadians. He was also going to make the point that Canada had failed to craft fair and enduring Jim and Karen Prentice with their three daughters, two sons-in-law and grandchild. As Richard Dicerni writes, Karen was the great love of Jim’s life and his family was the centre of it. Photo partnerships with its indigenous peo- courtesy of the Prentice family ple. In the weeks before he died, he was in the best shape of his life, hav- parks system. Despite the reluctance fellow premiers and ministers. ing just delivered his suits to his tailor in some quarters, he reached out to for them to be taken in. Public policy generally, and politics David Suzuki. They visited the leg- specifically, are much more com- endary archipelago, the Haida Gwaii, plex in 2016 than when Jim Pren- off the coast of B.C. and then toured tice started his political career. Social He proved that public together for a couple of days the new- media and the excessive focus on ly designated Gwaii Haanas National service—politics— short-term issues have made govern- Marine Conservation Area. can be an honourable ing more challenging and subject to multiple contrarian winds simultane- profession in which policies im Prentice will be remembered ously. Against this challenging media and ideas can be debated not only for what he did but also landscape and throughout his politi- without compromising one’s J for how he sought to do it and cal career, Jim Prentice was primarily for why he did it. guided by his own GPS: the public integrity and identity. He was a political leader who always interest, doing the right thing, mak- sought to grow the center, to broaden ing things better. This principle was, the coalition both in the formulation time and again, evident when he and the implementation of policies. had to make difficult decisions. One such moment was in October 2005, He was as comfortable in the board- when he was one of three Conserva- Over our last dinner, we reminisced rooms of corporate Canada as he tive MPs who voted for same sex mar- about our time in public service, talk- was in the meeting rooms of Treaty riage. He felt strongly that it was the ed about how proud we were of our 6 Nations. He could engage the CEO right thing to do. children and about the hierarchy of of Boeing as well as the minister of Eric Prentice, Jim Prentice’s father, important things in life. We settled the environment from Italy. His ex- was not keen on his only son be- on: health, love, friends and making traordinary intellectual bandwidth, coming a politician. Partially to ad- a difference. Power did not made the coupled with his easygoing interper- dress his dad’s concern and partially cut. We ended the evening over one sonal style, permitted him to listen because it reflected his own values, last glass of Italian red wine and con- to a cross-section of points of view, Jim Prentice vowed that when he left cluded: Carpe Diem. to broaden the circle, to enhance political life, he would leave a name the coalition in support of the best Richard Dicerni retired as Deputy that was untarnished and respected. path forward. Jim Prentice knew how Minister of the Executive Council of to listen to and talk with university The testimonials that poured in af- Alberta in April 2015, having served presidents, local and national indig- ter his death underline the fact that both Premier Prentice and Premier enous leaders, CEOs, union leaders, Jim Prentice honoured the vow he Rachel Notley.

January/February 2017 50 Verbatim/Unlocking the Potential of Innovation Sam Sebastian

The third annual Canada 2020 conference in Ottawa in At Google we have something our co-founder, Larry Page, calls the November 2016 focused on innovation. Google Canada “toothbrush test”. And it’s essentially General Manager Sam Sebastian delivered a thought- a challenge we put to our engineers every day: build a product that every- provoking closing keynote. one will use at least twice a day. Like a toothbrush.

At Google we have or a company that’s not old fornia—spread out over a land mass something our co- enough to legally drink in On- nearly the size of Russia. Our econ- founder, Larry Page, calls the F tario, Google has some deep omy, for years, was defined by what “toothbrush test”. And it’s Canadian roots. Fourteen years ago, we could pull out of the ground. The essentially a challenge we Google chose Canada as the loca- biggest exporter of oil to America? tion of its first international office. That’s Canada. put to our engineers every day: build a product that We have steadily grown in Canada Vast geography. Loads of resources. to nearly a thousand Googlers, with These are facts that might shape a na- everyone will use it at least around 600 software engineers in tion’s destiny, if not its identity. But twice a day. Like a Montreal and Waterloo. not Canada, not now. toothbrush. While I’ve been at Google for over To paraphrase our new Prime Minis- 10 years, I am what you would call a ter, the world will know Canada for New Canadian. I’ve been in Toronto its resourcefulness, not its resources. for two and a half years. And in this Canada is no longer a place defined This is not a small challenge. It de- time, I have enjoyed a front row seat by the limits of our physical geogra- mands our teams think big. To think to a Canadian renaissance. phy. Our future potential does not globally. And Google now has seven It seems not a day goes by when lie beneath Canadian bedrock—it is products with over a billion users. Canada is not topping some world within our universities, incubators ranking of cool: From the best cities and our start-up communities. Now what does a software company’s toothbrush test have to do with for hip hop … to the best home for And when it comes to innovation, Canada? hipsters (Mile End, Montreal). The unlocking that potential at global New York Times even declared that scale must be Canada’s top priority. Well, in the next 10 to 20 years, every the country that gave the world ice But the question is, how? Canadian company will be a technol- hockey, the snow blower and Labatt ogy company. From filmmaking to beer—is suddenly… hip. s someone who is both new farming, there will be no exceptions. The memes are true, people. This is to this country and a veteran And every Canadian business will Canada’s moment. But here’s the of the technology sector, I rely on software, hardware and con- A nectivity to drive its business. thing: This moment is about more have three observations on innova- than Canada being declared cool. tion I want to share with you today. The implications are enormous and What’s happening in Canada is much My hope, of course, is that they are the possibilities even bigger. particularly relevant as we define this more profound. Canada is home to 35 million people. moment together. When I try to explain this to my col- But globally, there are just over 3 bil- leagues south of the border, I start My first observation is that now is lion people who have Internet access. with a 15- second geography lesson: not the time for incremental think- That number will nearly double in Canada has the population of Cali- ing. Think big. Think exponential. the next five years.

Policy 51 While we’re asking Canadian businesses to prepare for a moment where every company is conceivably a technology company, do we have the pipeline of talent in place to meet the demand? The new fast-track work permit is a critical step forward in addressing the immediate need we’re seeing across the technology sector in Canada. It will attract more talent, transfer more knowledge and ultimately create more jobs. But in the long run, we need to think about nurturing Canada’s next generation of technology builders. We certainly have talent in Canada. Sixty per cent of Google’s engineers in Kitchener are University of Wa- terloo grads. Another 20 per cent are from UofT. We have top notch talent from UBC, University of Alberta and McGill. We need to keep this talent in Canada—or we need to bring them back. But regardless, we are not turning out enough computer science graduates to keep up with demand. Fifty per cent of Canadians graduate Google Canada General Manager Sam Sebastian on Canada’s opportunities to become a leading with a senior STEM course yet 75 per innovation nation. Canada 2020 photo, Matthew Usherwood cent of jobs require one. Thankfully, our greatest resource to he opportunity to scale Can- These Shopify folks passed the tooth- meet this challenge is walking through ada beyond our borders has brush test. the classroom doors of our nation ev- never been greater. T Thinking at a global scale is not just ery morning wearing oversized Poké- How many people here have heard for software companies and retailers. mon and Hello Kitty backpacks. of Manitobah Mukluks? They make If you haven’t heard of Lilly Singh, traditional mukluks out of Winnipeg your kids certainly have. Known as with techniques used by Canada’s Superwoman, she’s one of the world’s We are not turning First Peoples. In 2012, after 15 years biggest YouTube personalities, with out enough selling within Canada, the owners 10 million subscribers to her chan- sought to expand to an international computer science graduates nel. Lilly is from Scarborough—and it audience. They began experimenting to keep up with demand. doesn’t seem to matter if she’s walk- with online marketing using Google ing the streets of Toronto, Singapore Fifty per cent of Canadians AdWords. Today Manitobah Mukluks or Mumbai. She’s mobbed by fans ev- graduate with a senior sells to over 45 countries through their erywhere she goes. online store, and over one third of STEM course yet 75 per cent their website visits come from outside Lilly’s story is one of this country’s of jobs require one. Canada. Just last week, Trade Minister greatest export stories. A full 90 per Chrystia Freeland gifted the EU trade cent of the audience for Canadian commissioner with a pair of her very content on YouTube is from outside own at the CETA signing. this country. I had an interesting conversation with And, on the other end of the spec- And technology is giving Canadian one of our engineers not that long trum is the company they turned to businesses, artists and creators the ago. I asked him when he knew he was for their e-commerce solution: Shop- tools to think big and reach that global going to pursue a career in computer ify. Based right here in Ottawa. We marketplace. But thinking big—think- science. He talked about the time he all know the story: 1,500 employees, ing exponentially—faces a significant turned a Radio Shack circuit snap-kit 300,000 merchants in 150 countries. challenge in Canada. into a rudimentary metal detector. He

January/February 2017 52 also mentioned a Grade 7 physics class entrepreneurship and Canada’s future Canadian, what we have here is ex- on electromagnetic fields. But looking potential. ceptional. Outside Silicon Valley, the back, there wasn’t one moment that Toronto-Waterloo corridor represents led him to pursue engineering and rom our businesses, to our cul- the highest concentration of start-ups computer science as a career. Instead, ture to our education: Canada on the planet. But it’s the sense of it was dozens of small moments that F needs to think exponential. community and shared ambition that gradually illuminated the vast poten- That’s my first observation as a New truly sets us apart. tial of sciences and math. Canadian. With all the talk of building walls Ninety-eight per cent of Google en- My second observation is that Canada and Brexits over the past 12 months, gineers had some level of exposure needs to feed the winners. Canada was making headlines for to computer science and technology Canada is home to technology lead- welcoming refugees with open arms. before entering university. Many say ers and companies that are scaling up This spirit of openness and inclusion it wasn’t a single “aha” moment that and staying put. We are racking up the shapes not only our national identity, inspired them to pursue their career wins. It’s time to own our success. but also how we do business. Since I path, but rather dozens of small mo- moved up here two years ago, I’ve ments that gradually illuminated the And part of owning success is feeding seen it firsthand. vast potential of sciences and math. the winners. Last week in Toronto, Google Canada Canadian children need more of these By that, I mean investing in the places hosted an event called Go North. The opportunities—particularly girls, in- where innovation is happening. Van- aim was to convene Canada’s start-up digenous students and other com- couver, Calgary, Montreal, the Water- community, address the challenges munities that are underrepresented in loo-Toronto Corridor. These are the they face and to celebrate their suc- STEM (science, technology, engineer- clusters where—if you go looking— cesses. Nearly 700 people from starting and math) fields. you’re likely to find Canada’s next bil- ups and technology companies from lion dollar company. That’s why Google Canada partnered across Canada showed up. with Actua, a national STEM outreach And if we want to find even more of And what made every start-up attend- organization, to develop the Code- those billion dollar Canadian coming Go North different from their makers program that is delivering over panies, we need to resource the infra- competitors in Tel Aviv, London, Ber- a million hours of coding workshops structure, accelerators and academic lin or Silicon Valley is where they’ve and camps in hopes of creating those institutions that play such critical roles decided to build their company: the critical moments of inspiration for in fostering growth and creating these place we call home. 125 thousand Canadian children. remarkable start-up communities. Canada needs to think big. We need ut these kinds of moments are to look at what’s working and feed it only as good as our capacity hich brings me to my last accordingly. But when it comes to in- B to carry that momentum of in- W observation. novation, our shared sense of commu- spiration into the classroom. I know nity may be Canada’s greatest market Thinking big, thinking exponential- Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has differentiator. ly, owning success, feeding the win- talked about the need for kids to un- ners—these are tactics employed in Steven Woods, who returned more derstand the importance of coding. In Silicon Valley and economies around than eight years ago from founding England, computer science and com- the globe as they strive to innovate. several successful start-ups in Silicon putational thinking is already on the While Canada has vast potential to ex- Valley to oversee Google Canada’s curriculum for primary and secondary ploit these approaches—they are not engineering operations in Waterloo, school pupils. And it’s encouraging to uniquely Canadian. describes what we have in this com- see that British Columbia and Nova munity as the equivalent of capturing Scotia are working to integrate com- But we do have something up here in lightning in a bottle. putational thinking and coding into Canada that I have yet to see replicat- curricula starting in kindergarten right ed elsewhere. It has a little something Getting back to this idea of Canada’s through to grade 12. with who we are together. moment. This is what we’re really talk- If we’re serious about innovation in ing about. Together, we’ve captured Now, being Canadian means different lighting in a bottle. And together, in Canada, we may want to think about things to different people. Maybe for a applying the metaphorical toothbrush this moment, we’re going to use it to technology start-up, it means another shape Canada’s future. test to what we’re teaching Canada’s hurdle for financing, or a pain in se- next generation of workers. We need curing talent. Sam Sebastian is General Manager to recognize that computer science is of Google Canada. Excerpted from not simply the language of ones and But, from the perspective of someone an address to Canada 2020, Ottawa, zeroes. It’s the language of creativity, like myself who calls himself a new November 4, 2016.

Policy 53 Book Reviews

exciting, others mundane, critical ill- a co-founder and active board member nesses, wonderful health.” of our organization, and the creator of our iconic Heritage Minutes. I can attest So much, then, for the mystique around to his generosity, devotion to Canada, rich people: those emotions are familiar warmth, wry humour—and deserved to many people. But then, Charles has expectation that the money he gives never been interested in mystique or will be spent carefully and with specific any other form of putting on airs. He’s purpose. Before this job, I had also seen far too grounded. those qualities in evidence in my previ- At an astonishingly youthful 85 years ous life as a journalist. of age, Charles—he is always known At one level, Charles’ life is unimagi- simply by his first name to acquain- nable to most. He grew up in a 20-room tances—radiates contentment, good mansion in Montreal, surrounded by humour, and rare self-awareness. That servants; alternately comforted and he has attained such grace is good news, buffeted by loving but complex rela- but no guarantee of an engaging read. tionships with his three siblings and What makes Distilled compelling is how parents; and isolated from relationships he has done so. Co-written with the ac- with most people outside the family. complished business journalist Howard Green—who does an exceptional job of An drawing out Charles’ authentic voice— At one level, Charles’ Exceptionally Distilled walks us through events that life is unimaginable to range from early struggles with anxiety most. He grew up in a 20- and self-doubt through the triumphs Rich Life and tragedies of his adulthood. Those room mansion in Montreal, have included a loving but uneven rela- surrounded by servants; Charles Bronfman, tionship with his older brother, Edgar; alternately comforted and with Howard Green the sudden, shocking death of his be- buffeted by loving but complex loved wife Andy; and the obliteration Distilled: A Memoir of of billions of dollars of family wealth relationships with his three Family, Seagram, Baseball in business dealings he opposed from siblings and parents; and and Philanthropy. the outset. His high times and achieve- isolated from relationships Toronto, Harper Collins ments include founding Canada’s first Canada, 2016. with most people outside major-league baseball team; rubbing the family. Review by Anthony shoulders with the successive leaders Wilson-Smith of three countries (Canada, the United States, Israel); the focus on philanthropy that has touched several generations of young Canadians and Jews around As a “skinny lad with big protruding he very rich, F. Scott Fitzgerald fa- the world and, by his own description, ears”, he endured “double pneumo- mously wrote, “are different from T brought him his greatest joy. nia at five, pneumonia again at nine, you and me. They possess and enjoy and streptococcus while in early ado- early, and it does something to them; is friendships straddle all walks lescence” before arriving at the good makes them soft, where we are hard, H and levels of life, and a cornerstone health that persists to this day. Daunt- cynical were we are trustful.” The very of his existence is his deep devotion to ed by his demanding father Sam and rich Charles Bronfman puts the lie to family, including his children and step- the charismatic but domineering Ed- that. Here’s part of the opening para- children, and a happy new marriage in gar, he struggled against insecurities graph of Distilled, his compelling mem- 2012 to the former Rita Mayo. until his 30s. oir: “My life, like most people’s, has been a mixed bag—substantial achieve- Full disclosure: as president and CEO is personal life has always re- ments, serious disappointments; great of Historica Canada, I have every rea- H volved around family—albeit in loves, poor ones; various careers, some son to wish Charles good things. He is different forms. His first marriage, in

January/February 2017 54 1962, produced his children Stephen to big deals, he notes, “to some degree and Ellen. It ended in 1980, when he I had excluded myself and turned my- fell head over heels for Andy Morri- self into a passive investor.’ son, whom he had known since he had served as an usher at her first wedding. ut that debacle was followed by They were together until January, 2006, B Charles turning his focus to the when she left their Manhattan home area for which he is best known: tar- one rainy morning to walk their dog, geted philanthropy, which he calls and was struck by a car and killed. Her “my greatest success.” He has disbursed death, he recalls, was “the nadir of my more than $325 million, and will even- life [which] changed for me irrevoca- tually give away most of his remain- bly on that morning.” After a period of ing wealth. His areas of focus relate to deep depression, followed by a short, “who I am—proudly Canadian (and) on-the-rebound third marriage, he proudly Jewish.” In the late 1990s, married Rita, whom he had known for he pledged $25 million to create the years, in 2012. She has, he says, “made Historica Foundation (a co-founder of me an extremely happy, calm person.” the present Historica). That was con- ditional on fellow enthusiast Lynton His business career began slowly, with a ‘Red’ Wilson getting the private sector low-key role in the family’s worldwide to match those funds—as he did. The Seagram liquor business. Charles came Minutes, of which there are more than An Insider’s of age in his late 30s as the founding 80, were born of his conviction that owner of the Montreal Expos baseball young Canadians lacked awareness of Guide to team. The financial and personal gam- ble inherent in doing so thrust him into the ‘myths and legends’ that fuel na- Campaigns the public eye, gave him confidence tional pride. His solution, 60-second and a high-profile business to call his vignettes that tell those stories, was own, and taught him that his instincts an immediate and enduring hit. Last John Laschinger with were good. year, they were seen by more than 6 Geoffrey Stevens million people. His devotion to Jewish Campaign Confessions: Tales from He would have done well to follow causes includes Birthright Israel, a pro- the War Rooms of Politics. those instincts when it came to anoth- gram that allows young Jews to visit Is- Toronto, Dundern Press, 2016. er defining occasion—the disastrous rael for 10 days free of charge. To date, sale in 1995 of the money-spinning the program has registered more than Review by Geoff Norquay Dupont, in which Seagram was the 500,000 participants from more than biggest shareholder, followed by the 66 countries, and had a direct and in- ohn Laschinger is one of a kind in purchase of the MCA entertainment direct impact on the Israeli economy Canadian politics. As Canada’s only company. That weakened Seagram’s of a billion dollars over 15 years. J financial position, and led to the sale full-time professional political cam- of Seagram to France’s Vivendi. Those Some doubts and regrets about Charles’ paign manager, “Lasch” has served as events cost the family, by various es- life so far remain—especially around manager, director, senior strategist or timates, half to two thirds of its col- his tormented relationship with Edgar. advisor for 50 campaigns over the past lective wealth. They also exposed But he concludes that their demand- 45 years. festering divisions in the family, in ing father, Sam, correctly “sized us all Those campaigns constitute an im- particular between Edgar and Charles. up” in his views of his four children. pressive list: from John Crosbie’s los- The Seagram’s debacle began with Ed- In Charles’ case, Sam’s judgment was ing federal PC leadership campaign gar’s unilateral decision to name his that “I would help burnish the family in 1983 to Brian Peckford’s leadership son, Edgar Jr., as his successor. He an- name.” His Dad, he proudly concludes, and three successive provincial cam- nounced that without advising either wasn’t wrong: “The kid who started paigns in Newfoundland and Labrador; the board of directors or Charles, who out as a sickly, scrawny basket case from Don Getty’s winning leadership was vice-chair. Edgar Jr.’s infatuation has evolved into a contented, accom- campaign in Alberta in 1985 to Olivia with show business famously drove plished man with more friends than he Chow’s unsuccessful mayoralty race in those calamitous deals. It all ended, can count.” He is all that—and all of Toronto in 2014. Charles observes, “in disgrace, for ev- us who are admirers are likely to feel eryone concerned—for the family, for even more so after reading this honest, Distilling the insights from a lifetime me, for Edgar, for his son….” His an- enchanting, book. spent in a process as complex as po- guish and frustrations with Edgar Sr. litical campaigning requires some judg- and anger with Edgar Jr., are obvious. Contributing Writer Anthony Wilson- ment and organization, and Laschinger As tough as Charles is on them, he is Smith, former editor of Maclean’s, is and his co-writer, former Globe and tougher on himself for not exercising president and CEO of Historica Canada. Mail columnist Geoffrey Stevens, have the veto right he held. When it came [email protected] solved this challenge admirably.

Policy 55 Campaign Confessions begins with two ability of Justin Trudeau to exceed the that his or her positions can be com- chapters that present Laschinger’s prin- low expectations that plagued him—or pared to your candidate’s positions.” cipal thesis, that all political campaigns perhaps blessed him—at the beginning He also notes the importance of check- must address two essential issues—the of the campaign. ing negative ads with focus groups be- desire for change and the management cause they are the best way to ensure On the other hand, front-runners can of expectations. the right balance of tone has been lose momentum to changing expecta- achieved. What may make sense in the he balance of the book explores the tions. When Rob Ford returned from back room may be seen as over-the-top basic subdivisions of political cam- rehab during the 2014 Toronto mayor- T or far too personal or aggressive to the paigning—candidate preparation, orga- alty campaign, his re-emergence under- average voter. nization, public opinion research, vi- mined the advantage that Laschinger’s candidate Olivia Chow had enjoyed as sion, policy and values, the war room, n the famous “Just Not Ready/ the pre-eminent anti-Ford candidate. social media, negative advertising, nice hair though” ad used by the That opened the door to John Tory as O money and party discipline—with ex- Conservatives in 2015 election against amples and anecdotes from the 50 cam- the non-Ford alternative who was not Justin Trudeau, Laschinger notes the paigns presented as evidence and illus- only a progressive but would keep mu- analysis of pollster Greg Lyle, whose trations, as the “lessons learned” from nicipal spending and costs down, and research suggests the ad was very ef- both happy and painful experience. he subsequently cruised to victory. Chow was overtaken by events, while fective pre-writ and in the early part On voters’ attitudes towards change, Tory had positioned himself perfectly. of the campaign, but lost its strength Laschinger presents a common-sense as the desire for change took over and rule of thumb: In light of the recent election of Don- Trudeau proved during the campaign ald Trump as President of the United that he was, actually, quite ready. “As long as the desire for change States, the chapter on negative adver- stays around the 50 percent lev- tising is both instructive and relevant. The book concludes with three pieces el, it does not worry campaign Laschinger begins the chapter with the of sage and typically self-effacing ad- managers for incumbents. When delightfully unscientific observation of vice from Laschinger on the essentials the number passes 60 and stays George Washington University politi- of successful campaign management: there, they know it is time to call cal scientist John Sides that “Negative • Associate yourself with quality can- in the movers and the document ads work, except when they don’t.” shredders. didates who have the desire to win regardless of their current standing “Once voters make up their minds in the polls; that they want change, they typi- This is a superb book cally express it in a decisive way— that should become the • Use research wisely and widely to with a massive swing away from bible for anyone who finds guide the campaign; the incumbent and to the party or themselves managing a • Listen carefully and do not try to be candidate that best represents the the smartest person in the room. kind of change they want.” political campaign for a school board, a municipal mayoralty, If the desire for change and its impact This is a superb book that should be- party leadership, provincial on campaign outcomes are usually pret- come the bible for anyone who finds ty obvious, managing the expectations election or the House of themselves managing a political cam- of pollsters, pundits and the voting Commons. paign for a school board, a municipal public is more subtle, Laschinger writes: mayoralty, party leadership, provin- “Politicians who meet or exceed expec- cial election or the House of Com- tations win elections; those who fail to mons. The insights are substantive and measure up are the losers in election af- thoughtful and the examples instruc- ter election.” tive and to the point. Whether one is running the show or managing one of In managing expectations, campaign As experienced campaign practitioners its component parts, there is a great managers face a host of risks and op- know, effective negative ads must start deal of useful “how-to” here that de- with a believable premise and then be portunities, including keeping the scribes what is important and what’s campaign on an even keel, avoiding carefully balanced; a bit of humour can not, the risks to manage, the pitfalls overconfidence in front-runner cam- go a long way in softening the blow to avoid and the advantages to take in paigns and profound discouragement while reinforcing the barb. managing political campaigns. with long-shot candidates, and re- Laschinger argues that “factual nega- sponding to mid-campaign events that Contributing Writer Geoff Norquay, tive” ads work best because they “define can completely change the dynamics. an adviser to three Conservative prime your competition before the competi- ministers, is a principal of Earnscliffe Laschinger quite rightly notes that the tion can define your candidate…they Strategy Group. [email protected] federal Liberal triumph in 2015 resulted lay out questions that voters should from a huge desire for change and the want answered about a competitor so

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