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AMD | 1/6/21 FIRST FOCUS

ADVANCED MICRO GREEN YELLOW RED DEVICES, INC LIGHT LIGHT LIGHT (Ticker: AMD) LBIR Recommendation

Stock Price: $92.7 (1/5/21) Company Size: $110.4B Author: Madhu Chaudhary

Company Rank: 76 Sector: Industry:

AMD, Inc. is a semiconductor company that manufactures processors and related such as , , GPUs, processors for data centers, and PC/Gaming solutions.

IN THIS FIRST FOCUS WE’LL COVER:  Summary of the Business AMD is a semiconductor company that develops processor units for servers, , PCs, data  centers etc. Grab-and-Go

THESIS  Recent Developments The company delivered impressive financial An investment in AMD is a play on performance in the recent quarter primarily led by the advancement of high- strong tailwinds from the growing push for global performance computing based business digitization. It has announced acquisition technologies such as machine of to diversify itself and expand its presence learning and AI as well as the in the datacenter market segment. gaming industry. The company is a  Competitive Environment strong player in the accelerated In CPU segment, it faces intense competition from processor units market segment and market leader and in the GPU segment it competes with industry leaders such competes with the industry leader . as Nvidia and Intel. AMD’s success depends upon its ability to get large  Conclusions/Recommendations clients to use its high performance Given strong fundamentals and positive prospects products while consistently as a result of accelerated innovation and product innovating newer solutions to grow suite expansion, we are taking a positive stance on its . the and assigning it a “GREEN LIGHT”.

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0.94 STOCK: AMD | 1/6/21 FIRST FOCUS

Data as of 1/6/20 unless specified

Revenue NTM $11.77B Enterprise Value: $109.1B Market Cap: $110.4B (TTM): ($8.65B) NTM (TTM) 9.4x YTD Return: 95.7% RSI: 51.25 Price/Sales: 12.8x Gross Margin Revenue Growth 44.5% 43.5% ROIC (TTM): 39% (TTM): TTM (YoY): 200-day Moving 52-Week High: $97.98 52-Week Low $36.75 $78.46 Avg. Operating Profit $1.4B CFO (TTM) $959M FCF (TTM) $697M (TTM) Insider Transactions (2020): In 2020, Lisa (CEO) has sold 1.2M shares, Devinder Kumar (CFO) has sold 375,703 shares, Eugene Norrod (SVP) has sold 600,000 shares, (CTO) has sold 393,377 shares, Harry Wolin (SVP) has sold 153,984 shares and Darren Grasby (President EMEA) has sold 59,970 shares.

leadership of , AMD went through a major SUMMARY OF BUSINESS  restructuring which has paved the way for (AMD) is a company’s strong success in the last few years. semiconductor company that manufactures recently, AMD announced that it will be computer processors and related technologies acquiring Xilinx to leverage its expertise in such as microprocessors, motherboard chipsets, making programmable chips that are useful in GPUs, processors for data centers, and delivering customized processors for data PC/Gaming solutions. Founded in 1969 by Jerry centers, expanding the network, and in Sanders and his 7 colleagues, AMD is . headquartered in and went public in The company operates its business under two 1972. Over the years, the company has reportable segments: - established itself as a serious competitor in the chips market by producing Intel compatible Computing and Graphics Segment: This segment processors, acquisition of Nexgen, introduction of of the company targets two markets, the processor to run ’s Windows computing market (CPU) and the graphics OS, and the introduction of chips. In market (GPU). A few of the products in the 2014, AMD diversified its portfolio by finding its computing market include AMD processors way into the graphic segment with the release of for the desktops and AMD Athlon series (GCN) which is used in processors for notebooks, and AMD pro mobile consoles, desktop PCs, workstations, and servers. and desktop processors for enterprise-class However, the company’s poor financial desktops and notebooks pc solutions. Some of the management primarily due to overpayment for products that the company sells in the Graphics the ATI acquisition, disappointing successors to markets include discrete AMD chips for the famous K8 chips, 2008 financial crisis, high enhancing desktops and notebook graphics, debt, and competition from Intel led the company AMD Vega series for applications to report dismal numbers. Later, under the that require advance graphics such as designing

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0.94 STOCK: AMD | 1/6/21 FIRST FOCUS

and manufacturing on CAD by 3D designers, and SoC products were the key drivers for the growth architecture designs, as well as in this segment. graphic chips for training and high- performance computational workloads. The Revenue Mix company earns revenue through the sale of CPUs and GPUs for desktops, notebooks, and GPUs for Computing and data centers. Few of the customer end markets Graphics include Original Equipment Manufacturers 40% (OEMs), Original Design Manufacturers (ODMs), 60% Enterprise, Custom PC builders, Game Console Embedded, and Semi- Manufacturers, and Manufacturers such Custom as IBM and HP. As of October 2020, Computing and Graphic Segment was the largest of revenue and contributed 60% of the top line in Q3 Operating Income Mix 2020. The segment also reported a Non-GAAP Operating Income of $384 million (73% of Total Computing Non-GAAP Operating Income) in Q3 2020 as and 27% Graphics compared to $179 million in Q3 2019. Higher demand in the and Radeon product lines Enterprise, were key drivers for the growth in this segment. 73% Embedded, and Semi- Enterprise, Embedded, and Semi-Custom Custom Devices: A few of AMD’s Enterprise, Embedded, and Semi-Custom devices products include Source: AMD, Inc. 10-Q CPUs for data centers, Embedded processors, and semi-custom System on Chips (SoCs) products. Geographically, US and continue to remain The company makes AMD Series and the largest market for AMD contributing 26% of AMD Opteron Servers processors that enable the overall top-line each, followed by Japan and fast and efficient computing of advanced 12% and 11% respectively. computational problems. The company provides Interactive Entertainment LLC is AMD’s largest the processers for different types of servers such client and accounts for more than 10% of its as , on-premises, web, e-, etc. AMD consolidated revenue. also manufactures embedded processors used in the products (casino gaming machines, Total Addressable Market (TAM) enterprise-class , ◼ networking, etc.) that require a high to moderate The company estimates a TAM of $110 billion level of performance. This segment accounted for including $35 billion for Data Center, $32 billion 40% of the company’s total revenue in Q3 2020. for PCs, $12 billion for Gaming, and $32 billion The segment also reported a Non-GAAP from Xilinx acquisition. The two key players in Operating Income of $141 million for Q3 2020 as the CPU market are Intel and AMD. The compared to $61 million in Q3 2019. High company has gained a significant market share demand for server processors and semi-custom from Intel which has remained a leader over the last 50 years, primarily due to AMD’s cost-

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0.94 STOCK: AMD | 1/6/21 FIRST FOCUS

effective quality processors. According to CPU a YoY basis. This growth was primarily because , AMD holds 38.8% of the share in the of increase in the sale of Ryzen processors and the CPU market. In the discrete GPU market, AMD AMD Radeon RX Series (GPU). The company’s competes with NVIDIA. According to Jon Peddie ASP (Average Selling Price) in this segment Research, NVIDIA is the market leader and holds experienced an increase from the previous 80% of the share in the discrete GPU market, and quarter primarily due to its differentiated, cost- the rest 20% is held by AMD. The company’s effective, and high-performance AMD Ryzen and server processor segment lags the market leader Radeon series processors. During Q3 2020, the Intel that currently holds more than 90% market company expanded its mobile and desktop share but AMD is making a significant effort to processor families by launching AMD Ryzen take share through its EPYC Rome and Threadripper PRO for pre-built professional processors for servers. workstations developed by OEMs such as , along with AMD Ryzen 4000 desktop Special/Unique Characteristics of processors which includes built-in Radeon ◼ graphics targeting consumers, gamers, creators, the Company and streamers. It also launched the AMD Radeon Pro 5000 series for the updated 27-inch iMac for AMD boasts a highly diversified product portfolio. It has a strong market presence in both professionals doing intensive graphics works. CPUs ( primarily used in Moreover, catering to the ‘Work from Home’ PCs) industry segment as well as high situation, the company introduced AMD Ryzen performance GPUs segment (Graphics 3000 series and AMD Athlon 3000 C-Series processing unit primarily used in data centers mobile processors for to enable efficient multi-tasking and content creation and for high performance gaming). remotely. In October 2020, the company launched AMD Ryzen 5000 processor series to target LB•LOGIC A diversified portfolio professional gamers and content creators to helps stabilize revenue stream and also deliver seamless gaming and content creating supports long term growth of the experiences. AMD Ryzen 5000 processor series company. powered by the company’s latest core architecture increases instruction per clock to 19% which is the biggest jump since the launch of Zen architecture in 2017. The company is also tapping RECENT DEVELOPMENTS  into the market by leveraging its Despite pandemic-led challenges, AMD reported Radeon series with ’s SoC. The company record results in Q3 2020. Its revenue stood at has also joined hands with to provide $2.80 billion for Q3 2020 which is a 56% increase custom AMD Radeon Data Center GPUs for from Q3 2019 and a 45% increase from the to enable experience. previous quarter. Impressive growth was The company’s stronghold in the market observed in both the segments of the company. through high-performing, budget-conscious, and Computing and Graphics segment reported a power efficient Zen architecture and the revenue of $1.67 billion (60% of total revenue) for company’s innovation and partnership in the Q3 2020, which represents an increase of 31% on GPU market drove its strong growth in Q3 2020.

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0.94 STOCK: AMD | 1/6/21 FIRST FOCUS

designing programmable chips that can be customized based on the customer preferences LB•LOGIC Historically, AMD has and workload. Besides improving market share targeted products at lower price in the server segment for AMD, Xilinx will assist points, however recent introduction of the company in entering untapped markets such high-performance competitive as aerospace, radio, defense, and automobiles products in all its target markets and will foster its positioning in the 5G, AI, and provide the company an opportunity autonomous driving. to increase selling prices thereby Moving on to profitability, AMD reported a expanding margins. significant improvement in operating profit. Company’s Adj. operating profit more than doubled from $240 million in Q3 2019 to $525 In the Enterprise, Embedded, and Semi-Custom million in Q3 2020. As a percentage of sales, segment, AMD reported revenue of $1.13 billion operating margins improved from 13% in Q3 (40% of total revenue) which is a 116% increase 2019 to 19% in Q3 2020. AMD’s margins will year on year and 101% increase quarter over expand in the longer term as it enjoys the quarter. Semi-custom products (processors in advantage of operating leverage on a growing top game consoles), and EPYC server processors sale line. remained the key growth drivers. Recently, AMD partnered with Microsoft to provide 30-50 Operating profit percent more performance on data analytics 600 $525 20% $405 workload at the same cost for the Azure users 15% 400 which will enable the company’s cloud customers $240 $236 $233 10% to receive better real- analysis of a large 200 5% of data. millions in 0 0% Additionally, Advanced Micro Devices recently Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 agreed to acquire programmable chip maker 2019 2019 2020 2020 2020 Operating Income Operating Margin Xilinx in a $35 billion deal. This is an all-stock deal where Xilinx shareholders will receive 1.72 AMD Source: AMD, Inc. stocks for 1 Xilinx stock translating into $143 per share, representing a 25% premium over the Investors must also note that going forward, company’s prevailing price at the time. Despite Xilinx acquisition will be immediately accretive committing to one of the largest M&As in the to AMD’s margins and cash flows. industry, AMD did not repeat the same mistake Gross Profit Operating Free Cash Partticulars of raising debt to fund the deal like it did while Margin Profit Margin Flow Margin acquiring ATI. The deal which is expected to close AMD 44% 19% 9% by the end of 2021 will assist AMD in diversifying Xilinx 72% 28% 30% its product portfolio and fuel its ambition of becoming a key player in data centers and other Source: AMD and Xilinx 10-Q. high growth markets. Xilinx’s acquisition will also allow AMD to leverage Xilinx’s expertise in

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0.94 STOCK: AMD | 1/6/21 FIRST FOCUS

at Inc. She was LB•LOGIC Xilinx acquisition will responsible for global strategy, , and significantly improve AMD’s cash engineering of the company’s embedded flow generation providing and application processors considerable leeway to invest in &D business segment. She has also worked at IBM for and further improve its product 13 years in various engineering and business offerings. leadership positions, including VP of the Semiconductor Research and Development Center. Prior to joining IBM, Dr. Su was a member of the Technical Staff at AMD’s cash, cash equivalents, and short-term Instruments Inc. in the Semiconductor investments stood at $1.8 billion as of September and Device Center. She has a bachelor’s, master’s, 2020 as compared to $1.5 billion last year. The and doctorate degrees in company has also reduced its long term debt from the Institute of Technology obligations from $486 million in December 2019 (MIT) with more than 40 published Technical to $373 million in September 2020. According to articles. Dr. Su was ranked No. 2 in the the management, AMD’s current liquidity with “Businessperson of the Year” list in 2020 by the revolving credit facility is sufficient to fund its Fortune and was given the The Robert N. Noyce operations and capital expenditures in the near to Award by Association. medium term. She currently serves as the for COMPANY MANAGEMENT Cisco System Inc, Semiconductor Industry  Association, and the Global Semiconductor Dr. Lisa Su currently serves as the CEO of the Alliance. Here is a video of Dr. Su talking about company and is responsible for bringing AMD AMD’s turnaround - back from the brink of bankruptcy. She took hold ://www.youtube.com/watch?v=amBe2bofV of the top position in 2014 when AMD was going as through a difficult phase. Due to mis- management by earlier management, the Devinder Kumar has served as the Senior Vice company had become debt laden and was President and CFO of AMD since January 2013. bleeding money. Since joining, Lisa has led a Mr. Kumar joined AMD in 1984 as Financial complete overhaul of the company’s operations Analyst and has since progressed through by disposing of loss-making businesses and various roles in Corporate Accounting and focusing on profitable products which were its Corporate Finance. He possesses a bachelor’s core competencies. Besides, she also diversified degree in Ecology from the University of Malaya, the company from PC products to gaming , a master’s degree in Biology from the consoles, data centers etc. Under her leadership, University of California, Santa Barbara, and an AMD’s stock has soared more than twenty-folds MBA in Finance from the University of propelling it to $100 billion . California, Los Angeles. Dr. Su joined AMD in January 2012 as Senior and GM of Global Business Unit. Prior to joining AMD Dr. Su worked as a Senior Vice President and GM, Networking and Multimedia

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0.94 STOCK: AMD | 1/6/21 FIRST FOCUS

LB•LOGIC We believe AMD’s CEO is a major positive for the story going forward. She has been instrumental in driving change at the company both in terms of innovation as well as operational and financial management.

 COMPETITIVE ENVIRONMENT AMD operates broadly into two markets. These holds almost 80% of the discrete GPU market are the CPU and the GPU markets. In the all-CPU share. Going forward we expect intense market including the market for desktops, competition from NVIDIA in the discrete as well notebooks, and servers, AMD faces intense as overall GPU market due to NVIDIA’s wide competition from the industry leader Intel. Intel range of product including RTX 2080 Ti with holds almost 61.10% of the market share. Since, high ASP and better performance. However, we the appointment of Dr. Lisa Su, AMD has also expect AMD to continue innovating in the challenged the competitive positioning of Intel in GPU segment as well. The company launched all-CPU market through its 7nm nodes which it Ryzen 5000 processors aimed at PC gamers and gets manufactured from TSMC, while Intel faces content creators and marketed them as “the hurdles due to delays in internal manufacturing. fastest gaming CPUs in the world”. On October AMD currently holds a 38.80% market share in 28, AMD also showed off Radeon RX 6000 series the all-CPU market, thanks to the AMD’s desktop graphic processors to provide 4k resolution processors which currently hold 50.6% market performance for gamers and it competes neck to share. Moreover, after Dr. Su’s was appointed the neck in features with NVIDIA’s RTX 3000 series CEO, the company has been focusing on AMD’s key competitors in the server processors challenging Intel in the fast-growing data center segment include Intel and ARM-based chips used business. in servers. Intel currently holds more than 90% of According to Statista, in the Overall GPU market the market share in the server processors which includes GPU for PCs and GPU for segment. However, AMD’s EPYC Rome CPU is gaming, Intel currently holds 62% of the market slowly taking away market share from Intel. The share followed by NVIDIA, and AMD both company is also expected to launch the EPYC holding 19% each. In the discrete GPU market, Milan server processor in Q1 2021 which has AMD competes directly with NVIDIA which received strong reviews.

 TREND ANALYSIS: VALUATION AMD’s stock has rallied multi-folds in the last in improved business prospects of the company few months due to increased investor confidence in the post-pandemic digitized world. The

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0.94 STOCK: AMD | 1/6/21 FIRST FOCUS

company is currently trading at a price to sales valuation with intel or its own prior history isn’t 12.4x which is significantly higher than its nearest fair. We believe long-term oriented investors can peer Intel as well as higher than its own historical generate significant returns even at current averages. Having said that, AMD has seen strong valuations. resurgence through consistent research and innovation under the leadership of its visionary CEO and comparing the company’s current TTM Revenue Forward Revenue Operating Margin Price/Sales Ratio

Growth % Growth % AMD, Inc. 44% 23% 13% 12.4 Nvidia Corp. 48% 19% 28% 21.7 Intel Corp. 11% 1% 32% 2.7 , Inc. -3% 19% 26% 7.4

Texas Instrument, Inc. -7% -2% 39% 11.1

Source: Seeking Alpha

 CONCLUSION / RECOMMENDATION

AMD has seen an impressive turnaround in recent years as it has pursued innovation more aggressively as well as added higher growth target segments to its business mix under the leadership of Dr. Lisa Su. Although the current valuation appears to be rich, we believe the fundamentals remain strong and expect AMD to sustain high growth in the future. We assign a “GREEN LIGHT” rating to AMD.

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0.94 STOCK: AMD | 1/6/21 FIRST FOCUS

◼ Stock Chart for Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD)

Source: Gurufocus

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0.94 STOCK: AMD | 1/6/21 FIRST FOCUS

◼ Performance Data 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 ADJUSTED ROIC (%) NM NM NM 23% 38% 33% GROSS MARGIN (%) 33% 27% 23% 34% 38% 43% OPERATING PROFIT (MILLIONS USD) -155 -481 -372 204 451 631 YoY Earnings Growth (%) NM NM NM NM 121% 40% REVENUE (MILLIONS USD) 5506 3991 4272 5329 6475 6731 YoY Earnings Growth (%) 4% -28% 7% 25% 22% 4%

◼ Valuation Data 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 SHARE PRICE (USD) 2.67 2.77 11.42 10.42 18.01 46.86 SHARES OUTSTANDING (MILLIONS) 776 792 935 967 1005 1170 MARKET CAP (MILLIONS USD) 2072 2194 10678 10076 18100 54826 PRICE TO SALES 0.4 0.5 2.5 1.9 2.8 8.1

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0.94 STOCK: AMD | 1/6/21 FIRST FOCUS

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