UPPSATSER Kulturgeografiska institutionen

Transitioning to a sustainable energy system a qualitative analysis of energy planning policy in Sweden.

Joel Fenel

Kurs: 2KU035: Masteruppsats i kulturgeografi 30hp Termin: VT2020

ABSTRACT Fenel, J. 2020. Transitioning to sustainable energy systems: a qualitative analysis of energy planning policy in Sweden. Uppsatser Kulturgeografiska institutionen, Uppsala universitet. Masteruppsats I kulturgeografi 30hp, VT20

This study examines the transition to a sustainable energy system in Swedish society, by analysing research, policy and strategies related to the energy sector. The study applies an institutional approach informed by evolutionary governance theory as well as energy smart and communicative planning theory to analyse how the transition is portrayed on a Nordic, National and regional level. As the purpose is to understand the decision-making process behind the transition, the research design is qualitative and uses official and private documents as the main source of data. To analyse the material, the study applies a method developed by Healey (1993) and Khakee (2000) as a model to read texts as the product of a broad discourse. The results show that the transition towards a sustainable energy system is driven by institutional governance informed by increased European intervention. The Nordic countries, especially Sweden, have during the past decade established structures to become 100 per cent decarbonised and reliant on energy generated from renewable energy sources. Although the core ideology behind the transition is positive from a sustainable perspective, there are many technical challenges on a domestic and regional level that have not yet been solved.

Keywords: Energy systems, energy policy, sustainability, evolutionary governance theory, communicative planning.

Advisor: Sofia Cele

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. INTRODUCTION 4 1.1 Background 4 1.2 Problem definition 5 1.3 Purpose and Research questions 6 1.4 Concepts 7 1.5 Boundaries 10 1.6 Thesis disposition 11 2. METHOD AND APPROACH 13 2.1 Research design 13 2.2 Documental case study 13 2.3 Using thematic analysis to code the material 16 2.4 Critique 17 3. THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK 18 3.1 Evolutionary Governance Theory 18 3.2 Energy smart and communicative planning 22 4. AN INSIGHT INTO THE NORDIC ENERGY PERSPECTIVE 25 5. AN INSIGHT INTO THE SWEDISH ENERGY PERSPECTIVE 29 5.1 National policy 36 6. AN INSIGHT INTO THE REGIONAL PERSPECTIVE 44 6.1 Case 1: Stockholm county 45 6.2 Case 2: Scania county 51 7. ANALYSIS 56 7.1 Themes 56 7.2 Findings 59 8. CONCLUDING DISCUSSION 65 8.1 Future studies 66 LITERATURE 67 Web sources 70

1. INTRODUCTION

During the past decade the notion of the impending climate change and its global consequences, have been thoroughly investigated by several research institutions. The consensus is that humanity’s energy expenditure among other factors are causal links to environmental degradation, effectively disrupting biotopes and livelihoods of most species living on earth. The burning of fossil fuels in the production of electricity has during the past 200 years drastically changed how humanity operates by dawning in a new age of technological innovation, mobility and comfortability. However, as we now know, the actions taken in the past have never been sustainable in the truest sense of the word. The problems of greenhouse gas emissions are well documented and usually blamed on the widespread use of fossil fuels and the conversion of energy (Shahbaz et al. 2020: 1). The fossil fuels that we use are not infinite, nor are they re-usable. By burning coal, oil and gas, we have polluted the air we breathe with carbon dioxide, created staggering amounts of non-degradable waste and irreparably damaged vast parts of the earth to make room for our industrial complexes. Furthermore, our urban areas are the core of energy consumption which expend 75 per cent of the world’s total energy use (Maltese et al. 2016: 26). As a result, these areas are prone to generate large amounts of greenhouse gas emissions, which broadens the difficulty if attaining sustainable society is the goal. Considering a yearly increase in energy consumption, it is fair to argue that this global structure we have implemented would eventually break down. Thus, nations, institutions and organisations have in the past decade collectively begun to change their ways regarding the production, consumption and transportation of energy as to correct the mistakes of the past. This development is considered a paradigm shift in the energy sector as more nations are constructing infrastructure to accommodate a larger share of renewable energy sources (Calvillo et al. 2016: 283).

1.1 Background The most notable development in recent international energy policy, is the event called COP 21 also known as “The Paris Agreement”, where representatives of 188 countries signed an agreement to implement measures in their home countries to reduce the global temperature below 2 degrees Celsius (UNFCCC 2020). This marked the first time in history where the world’s biggest climate influencers came together to combat the problem of climate change. The European Union and other global actors have since deemed the energy expenditure and environmental degradation one of the key challenges of this generation and has invested numerous resources in establishing directives and goals for sustainable policy and planning (European Commission 2017). Most of these goals include mandatory objectives that should be achieved by a certain timetable, as the purpose is to put pressure on the member nations. However, the power to change existing domestic energy systems falls on each individual

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country, as global initiatives only have so much influence over domestic economy, policy and planning. Although this may be the case, some areas have better cooperation than others, as for example the Nordic countries. Following the EU’s directive regarding climate and energy goals, Denmark, Finland, Iceland Norway and Sweden have intensified their collaboration concerning climate and energy research (Nordic Energy Research & International Energy Agency 2016). The research covers most sectors in society, as the energy system is not closed off and often relies on intersectional collaboration and international trade. According to a recent report published by the International Energy Agency (2019: 11), Sweden is ranked among the leading nations in Europe to transition towards a carbon free and energy efficient energy system. Being highly ranked also means that other countries look at Sweden as an example of good practice, which also means that expectations are higher and that the practices are examined more closely (Urban et al. 2018). But is the Swedish energy system portrayed fairly on an international level? And is the Swedish decision-making process through policies and plans a standard to appeal to regarding the transition towards a sustainable energy system? To examine this phenomenon, this thesis will examine the energy system by incorporating Nordic, Swedish and regional perspectives on the subject.

1.2 Problem definition The idea of altering society to become more applicable to sustainable and energy efficient strategies is generally perceived as a goal to pursue by European countries, but there are hardly any practical frameworks that describe how this could be achieved. Recently, global and local initiatives have appeared that try to establish new frameworks and methods of operation within the energy sector (European Commission 2017: 14), but progress tends to be slow and difficult due to the multi-layered problems sustainable energy reorganisation creates. The fact that the Swedish regional climate and energy strategies were adopted in the past 5 years, shows that there has not been an established framework that links international and domestic policy to local energy initiatives (Länsstyrelsen i Stockholms län 2020: 3). However, there are some fundamental problems in the energy sector that need to be elaborated upon before delving into the problems that exist within the Nordic region.

Firstly, Stoeglehner et al. (2016: v) argue that “the link between energy and spatial planning is that it cuts not only across two of the most basic scientific concepts, space and energy, but puts very different actors with various backgrounds in the same boat”. However, the communication within this hypothetical boat seems to be problematic, as the interdisciplinary viewpoints tend to clash over matters of prioritization. Another point is the obscure mentality regarding sustainable energy planning and how it is utilized most effectively. Some actors say that sustainability within the energy sector can only be achieved by international cooperation by public and private organisations. However, a recent study by Shahbaz et al. (2020: 9), showed that international public-private investments in the energy sector can have negative effects on local environmental quality due to conflicting values, which effectively counteracts

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the main objective. This dilemma of contradicting statements in planning policy is nothing new, but due to the experimental nature of renewable energy implementation, pinpointing the validity of the statements becomes exceedingly hard. Hence, identifying specific problem areas is essential if one is to understand the scope of the undertaking. Secondly, according to Trutnevyte et al. (2015: 170-171) one of the core issues regarding the transition to sustainable energy systems is to make the renewable energy market alluring for investment, as the restructuring cannot be achieved without financial means to challenge the existing fossil fuel market. Many of the propositions in planning policy also rely heavily on innovative cost- effective solutions to fill some of the motivational gaps, while being intentionally vague about the expenses of developing new technologies (Maltese et al. 2016: 26; Bhowmik et al. 2017: 796). Thirdly, due to the varying stages of infrastructural development of energy industries between countries in Europe, it is exceedingly difficult to develop a framework that works for everyone. For example, energy production in Sweden largely utilizes hydropower due to its several waterways, which means that a framework developed for Swedish standards would be both financially and geographically difficult to implement elsewhere (Swedish Energy Agency 2019: 7). Furthermore, according to a recent news article published in Dagens Nyheter (Fröberg 2020), the southern part of Sweden currently suffers from interregional energy transmission shortages, which means that not even Sweden is unified enough create a domestic model. Hence, discussing the energy sector comparatively outside the Nordic region might not be fruitful data-wise, as the differences become too large.

These problems are but a few that exist within the energy sector, nevertheless they all came to be as the result of insufficient frameworks and vague policies. Thus, the thesis will look at these problems from an institutional level, to try to surmise the issues that are behind the difficulties in transitioning towards a new energy system.

1.3 Purpose and Research questions The purpose of this thesis is to examine how the transition towards a sustainable energy system is portrayed in Swedish society and understand why this process have recently begun to take shape, by analysing research, policy and plans connected to the energy sector. The decision- making process regarding climate and energy policy is often vaguely discussed in scientific studies, although being one of the defining developments of our generation. Furthermore, the governance of the energy system does have a grave impact on how society functions in the future, since energy intensive apparatuses are intertwined in the modern way of life. Thus, the following research questions are meant to answer why energy systems are so vaguely discussed literature. • What are the main drivers of change in the energy discussion on a Nordic, a national and a regional level?

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• How are narratives and interests represented in climate and energy literature when filtered through Healey’s (1993) and Khakee’s (2000) model? • How are opportunities and challenges discussed, and are the current solutions viable? As Sweden is currently in the process of transitioning towards more international energy market with the intention of increasing the share of renewable energy being utilized in all sectors of society (International Energy Agency 2019: 11-12), I examine this transition by adapting an institutional approach to create an overview of the phenomenon. In other words, this thesis adapts a macro perspective to examine how formal and informal institutions, organisations and actors operate in, and transform the overarching process, instead of looking at specific individuals and how their actions affect the structure. For this to be possible, it is necessary to look at the energy sector from several angles. Thus, this study gives an insight into three different levels of the energy sector, specifically from: a Nordic perspective by examining collaborative research; a Swedish perspective by examining current events and relevant energy policy; a regional perspective by examining two climate and energy strategies, specifically Stockholm and Scania county. Although this thesis does not give a complete or comprehensive account of each level, it will hopefully give an overall picture of what informs the current decision-making process in the energy sector. The chosen theoretical framework namely, evolutionary governance theory as well as energy smart and communicative planning theory similarly reflects this approach, by describing how institutions, organisations and actors govern and decide the course of action in societal structure. By applying concepts and ideas from the theoretical framework to examine how the decision-making process within the energy sector is done, it becomes easier to analyse why these decisions are made. For this purpose, the study applies a tool introduced by Healey (1993) and later refined by Khakee (2000) to filter and analyse patterns within policies and plans, such as context, vision, economic premise, discourse, ambiguity and power relations. The tool is consequently used as the thematic structure of the analysis, as it utilizes the concepts presented in the theoretical framework.

1.4 Concepts To understand the energy system, some concepts need a short description to contextualise why they are prevalent in energy discussions and how they appear in discourse. These concepts are meant to assist the reader in grasping difficult subjects that are introduced throughout the thesis.

1.4.1 Sustainability in terms of energy planning According to Scoones (2007), sustainability has since the terms recognition in the Rio conference of 1992 been plagued by conceptualisation issues. As mentioned earlier, the problem relates to the difficulties in putting many actors with their own ideas, to compete for whose idea is best and should be prioritised. Generally, the term sustainability or sustainable

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development is used as a buzzword within the political discourse as something positive, long- term and established from the premise that what we are doing presently is unsustainable. Due to the term’s popularity and broadness, the context of how something is sustainable is often left intentionally vague, as sustainability cannot be assessed equally in every scenario (Rosen 2018: 3). What is generally accepted, is that sustainability is dependent on three main societal pillars, namely economic development, social development and environmental protection (Environmental Science 2018). Additionally, “sustainability is highly correlated with energy since it implies a careful use of resources”, which is bolstered by the fact that renewable energy seems to be at the forefront of sustainable literature (La Greca & Martinico 2016: 51). However, the methods of how sustainability is measured is still not very well defined, as some values simply cannot be quantified. According to Rosen (2018: 15), the best methods we have at the moment for measuring sustainability are simple calculations that either: a) assesses sustainable indicators by combining or separately measuring economic, social and environmental factors; or b) by indexing an aggregation of sustainable indicators to show simple correlations over time. The results of these measurements are mostly used as markers of the available research parameters, which means that sustainability as concept has limited use as a directive in the planning process, if not specified correctly to what end it is being used (Föreningen för Samhällsplanering [FFS] 2016: 12). It can be argued that the language in plans and official documents often misrepresent the concept of sustainability by exaggerating its actual use and leaving out important contextual factors. Thus, this study will define sustainability in accordance to the aforementioned societal pillars, but with an emphasis on energy related principles, which means that all societal pillars will not be prioritised equally.

1.4.2 The basics of energy, power and power systems As this study delves into the energy sector, which in of itself is complex, some basic concepts need to be understood as they are frequently used in the literature. To start off, energy can be defined as the ability to do work (Greentech Media 2007; Mehling 2019: 4). The first law of thermodynamics states that energy is a constant and exist in many forms regardless of action, which means that energy can neither be produced nor destroyed (Mehling 2019: 5). Energy can only be converted into different forms of utility, as for example generating electricity by converting energy. Depending on which form of energy and how it is converted, different effects might be observed. As for example renewable energy sources such as energy converted from sunlight, wind and water, are different from energy converted from fossil fuels, since fossil fuels are depleted in the conversion process (Greentech Media 2007). The most common forms of energy in regard to energy systems are: • Mechanical energy = Energy associated with the motion or position of an object. It can be observed in either kinetic energy (motion) or potential energy (stored). For example, energy harnessed from wind.

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• Chemical energy = Energy stored in the bonds that hold the atoms of molecules • Electric energy = Energy stored in metals and other electron conducting materials that move electrical charges • Nuclear energy = Energy stored in the nucleus of an atom. • Thermal energy = Energy caused by vibration and movement of atoms and molecules within a substance, producing heat. • Radiant energy = Electromagnetic energy that travels in waves which possess both electrical and magnetic properties. For example, sunlight. Another important concept in energy systems is power. Power refers to the amount of energy transformed in a certain amount of time, by means of conversion, storage, transport or use (Mehling 2019: 43). Power can also be described as, (P = W / t) power equals work divided by time (Greentech Media 2007). The SI unit used to measure power is watts (W), which in this study will mostly be described in terms of gigawatts or terawatts as energy systems deal with bigger units of power. Lastly, to distribute electricity that has been converted from some form of energy, we use what is called an electric power system. An electric power system can be understood as a network of devices that generate, convert, transfer and distribute electric power for consumption in households, industries and other electric driven services (Circuit globe 2018). As can be seen in Figure 1, the electric power system is divided into the generators that supply the power, the transmission system that transports the power from the generating centres and the distribution system that provides houses and industries with power. In Sweden the transmission system is managed by Svenska Kraftnät and the distribution systems are mainly owned by Ellevio, E.ON and Vattenfall. (SOU 2017:2: 117).

Generating system Step-up transformer Transmission system Step-down Distribution system & transmission lines transformer & distribution lines

• Power plants • transforms • Transmits large • transfroms • Distributes generate power electricity for quantitites of electricity for electricity to long-distance electricity short-distance households and transport transport industries

Figure 1: A simplified example of the power system. Source: Personal collection.

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1.4.3 Sustainable energy systems Energy systems can be understood as a culmination of all energy related mechanism in a societal structure. As can be seen in Figure 2, an energy system should be viewed as linear progression of how energy is industrialised, converted and finally used by society.

Figure 2: Illustration of the energy system, consisting of supply, conversion and distribution. Source: Swedish Energy Agency 2019.

In this thesis I use the Swedish Energy Agency’s (2018) terminology of energy systems, which states:

“Energy systems consists of a combination of humans, technology, and infrastructure together with institutions such as policies, laws and societal values that all are linked together and influence each other.”

Sustainable energy systems can thus be related to sustainable human practices, green technology, energy efficient infrastructure that uses long-term, economically viable and environmentally friendly energy sources. This also implies that the rule of law, policies and values are adapted from the same mentality.

1.5 Boundaries Sustainable energy systems do not exist in a societal vacuum and are as such interconnected in many vital sectors that must be mentioned to create a contextual scenario. Aspects within topics such as socioeconomic development, physics and politics are discussed, but from an

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institutional energy and climate perspective as the two topics are interconnected when discussing current energy policy. To keep the study focused on energy related themes, the other topics will only be discussed if they are directly connected to Swedish energy and climate policy. Although European policy is mentioned, this study narrows the perspective to Nordic climate and energy policy, due to similarities in geographical space, economic development and established energy infrastructure. Furthermore, there already exists Nordic cooperation regarding the research and development of sustainable energy systems, which makes it more logical to start examining energy policy from a Nordic perspective.

1.6 Thesis disposition The following summary presents the structure of this thesis with the intention to give the reader an overview of the topics discussed. 1. Introduction. The first chapter introduced the premise of the study, presented current problems within the field, discussed the purpose and research questions, introduced some important definitions and lastly set some boundaries of what can be accomplished. The aim was to provide a basic understanding of why society is moving towards sustainable energy systems and why it is important to look at the energy sector from multiple angles to establish an overall picture.

2. Method and approach. The second chapter describes the qualitative research design and the reasoning behind the chosen methodology. Furthermore, the motive for choosing a documental case study is explained, as well as the difficulties encountered when conducting the research. 3. Theoretical frameworks. The third chapter introduces the theoretical framework, specifically concepts and ideas from evolutionary governance theory as well as energy smart and communicative planning theory which are adapted to the institutional approach. Evolutionary governance theory introduces ideas from social system theory, poststructuralism as well as institutional and development economics which help explain institutional agency. Energy smart and communicative planning present more practical concepts of energy planning as well as tools for reading policies and plans.

4. to 6. Empirical content. The fourth chapter introduces the energy sector from a Nordic perspective, by delving into the latest collaborative energy research and how the transition to a sustainable energy system affects the Nordic countries. The fifth chapter presents the current energy situation in Sweden to establish a premise for the reasoning behind Swedish energy and climate policy. The sixth chapter presents the climate and energy strategies for two Swedish counties, for the purpose of showing how research and policy from the Nordic and the National level is conveyed on a regional level. The overall purpose with the empirical chapters is to describe the transition to sustainable energy systems from several angles, as the energy sector is more than a closed system and therefore needs a broader description.

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7. Analysis. The seventh chapter combines the empirical material with the theoretical framework presented in previous chapters. The themes are categorised in accordance to Khakee’s (2000) tool presented in chapter 2, and subsequently interpreted to construct concepts that are explored further. 8. Concluding discussion and final remarks. The final chapter summarizes the results discovered in the analysis and discusses the relevant facts to the phenomenon. The discussion will also revisit the problems and research questions presented in the first chapter and evaluate if the study reached the intended purpose. Lastly, some subjective remarks that were discovered while researching the topic are discussed, which will hopefully encourage further studies to be conducted within the discipline.

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2. METHOD AND APPROACH

This chapter introduces the research design, the empirical gathering method, relevant documents, method of analysis, coding model and lastly some critiques against the methods used.

2.1 Research design Since my goal is to examine the transition to sustainable energy systems by interpreting information from private and official documents rather than measuring quantified data, this study will adapt a qualitative research design. Plans and policies are often drafted for a broad audience with diverging degrees of expertise, which is why this study is purposefully written in a more normative language that is better suited for a descriptive qualitative approach. Qualitative methods are also best applied when the researcher needs to be able to interpret the meanings behind actions, statements and opinions (Bryman & Nilsson 2011: 346). In regard to my research questions, I test the ideas from evolutionary governance theory as well as energy smart and communicative planning theory against the empirical data by using a modified inductive approach, as the goal is to describe a phenomenon rather than proving a hypothesis (Bryman & Nilsson 2011: 26). Furthermore, it is not uncommon for qualitative studies use a blend of deductive and inductive reasoning (Bryman & Nilsson 2011: 28). Thus, the goal for this thesis is not to reach absolute truths, rather bring forth an informed perspective of the current energy system.

2.2 Documental case study Official documents, reports and plans are used as the cornerstone of this thesis due to the policy-heavy nature of the phenomenon. Thus, policies, referral responses, regional development plans, energy reports and more are incorporated as empirical data, considering that the statements in these documents will act as the bulk of the analysis. However, since documental studies are dependent on the authors interpretation and values, it is important to review several sources in order to ascertain meaning and validity (Bowen 2009: 27; Bryman & Nilsson 2011: 488). According to Bowen (2009: 28) the procedure entails discovering, selecting, assessing and synthesising the data, which can then be used as the cornerstone for the analysis. I found case studies to be a complementary method for a documental study, as looking at regional development might shed some light on how policies are implemented. Case studies are “well suited to new research areas or research areas for which existing theory seems inadequate”, which resonates with the topic of sustainable energy systems, as there are new angles that can be explored within the discipline (Rowley 2002: 16). A case study can be

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defined as an empirical enquiry of contemporary phenomena in its context, which is not restricted by strict research paradigms (Rowley 2002: 18). Its suits the flexibility of the overall research design, as the study will open a contemporary window to the world of energy systems, which will inevitably look completely different in a decade. Furthermore, case studies tend to have a descriptive quality when trying to answer questions of how and why something happens, which is in line with the chosen research questions (Rowley 2002: 16). As this study utilizes documents as the main source of data, the sample size is mainly selected through interpretation of relevance to the research questions. Although not following a specific method, the selection of empirical data did undergo a screening of relevance to the overall topic and how it could be approached. Firstly, based on the theoretical framework which emphasises an institutional approach, it was necessary to describe Nordic energy plans to establish a premise for the Swedish outlook on energy policy. Secondly, the Swedish perspective informs both the mentality and background for the current energy system, as well as the creation of the regional climate and energy strategies. Finally, the cases of Stockholm and Scania county were chosen based on the traits they both share, namely a published climate and energy strategy, as well as power inefficiency within the geographical area due to capacity deficit within the electric power network. Although other documents were used to contribute to the study as a whole, they were not subjected to the same analytical process as the following research, policy and planning documents, as seen in Table 1. The institutions most relevant to this study are; Nordic Energy Research, Government offices of Sweden and the governing boards of Stockholm and Scania county.

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Table 1: Overview of the analysed documents

Document Adopted/ Sample criteria Analysed excerpts Published Material about Nordic energy research Nordic Energy 2016 Comprehensive report Chapter: Technology Perspectives about the Nordic Introduction, 1, 3 2016: Cities, flexibility energy situation, its and pathways to carbon- challenges and neutrality opportunities Tracking Nordic Clean 2019 Situation and Progress Entire document Energy Progress 2019 Tracking Nordic Clean 2020 Situation and Progress Entire document Energy Progress 2020 Material on Swedish energy policy Framework agreement 2016, June Long-term framework Entire document for Swedish energy policy SOU 2017:2 - 2017, Comprehensive report Entire document “Kraftsamling för January about the Swedish framtidens energi” energy situation, its challenges and opportunities Proposition 2017/18:228 - 2018, April Referral responses and Entire document “Energipolitikens evaluations on progress inriktning” Material on regional energy strategies Climate and energy 2020 Stockholm county’s Entire document strategy for Stockholm regional energy plan county 2020 – 2045 Climate and energy 2018 Scania county’s Entire document strategy for Scania county regional energy plan 2018 - 2030 Source: Personal collection

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2.3 Using thematic analysis to code the material I chose to use thematic analysis as the main analytical tool, as it allows for greater interpretation when synthesising the empirical data. According to Bryman and Nilsson (2011: 528), thematic analysis works best when trying to find patterns or themes within the field of research, as the researchers own interpretation of the phenomenon becomes key to building a conceptual framework (Bryman & Nilsson 2011: 528). In other words, the framework in this study consists of themes derived from energy policy and planning, which are then categorised into workable concepts. This is done via coding the empirical material into core- and sub-themes, then applying it to the theoretical perspective, and lastly discussing the concepts and the meaning behind them. To help code the material and build the framework, Bryman and Nilsson (2011: 529) suggest paying close attention to repetitions, typologies, metaphors, paradigms, disparities in statements and missing data. This mentality is similar to Healey’s (1993) and Khakee’s (2000: 124) model that examines the language of written text and applies ideas and concepts from communicative planning theory (presented in chapter 3). The model adapts an institutional approach to examine underlying aspects in plan and policy texts by viewing them as products of a broad discourse. The model is designed to question for whom the texts are written, what stakeholders are involved, uncover obscurities and examine if there exists a dominating ideology that empowers or disempowers certain viewpoints (Khakee’s 2000: 123- 124). To do this, the model singles out certain patterns in the texts by categorising them into the following areas:

• The context: How structures and social relations are described and portrayed. • The frame of the plan: What aims, visions and dispositions are presented in the plans and policies, and do they acknowledge any missing information. • The economic premise: Business conditions, unemployment, social priorities, conflicts between different agendas. • The discourse and discourse arena: The language of the text, treatment of technical issues and objectives. • The communicative qualities: Clarification of difficult subjects, dealing with ambiguities, misrepresentation of facts, explanation of policy issues and accessibility of information. • The power relations: Does ambiguity in the text conceal powerlessness, the portrayal of formal and informal attitude to public interest and market interest respectively. These categories will be the template for how the empirical content is analysed and discussed in chapter 7.

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2.4 Critique There are some areas that need to be clarified regarding the credibility and validity of this study. Firstly, this study was originally planned to apply semi-structured interviews in addition to the documental data, but due to the outbreak of Covid-19 the method was abandoned as national quarantine hindered access to key individuals. The research design was hence changed to a pure documental study and lacks any first-hand sources of knowledge. According to Bowen (2009: 28) it is often beneficial for a study to use multiple data sources and methods, such as interviews, observations or other first-hand sources. This is done to establish triangulation, ergo credibility through an aggregation of sources. Nevertheless, as the purposes is to describe a phenomenon rather than to obtain absolute truth, the official documents should provide enough credibility, to support the statements made in this thesis. An argument can be made that it will not represent reality in the same way, but then again that is a problem for most qualitative methods as people’s beliefs, values and morals are difficult to mirror through language. Secondly, this study uses sources from many different disciplines as sustainable energy systems cannot be understood without assessing multiple layers of societal functions. That includes a basic understanding of concepts from economic theory, planning theory, social theory, environmental studies, judicial studies, human geography and more. As a scholar of urban planning studies, I am neither an expert or an authority in these disciplines and could therefore be missing some information due to a lack of knowledge. Furthermore, since the interdisciplinary approach takes into account multiple matters of interest, the study can be interpreted as vague or lacking a clear direction. However, as the purpose of the study is to interpret a phenomenon that is contextually an observation of a societal system, I find it rational to discuss the phenomenon from a broader perspective, instead of clinging to a methodology that focuses on certain details. In the process of researching this topic, I also became convinced that pursuing a narrower perspective when contextualising the topic, would exclude too many factors that are vital in understanding energy systems.

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3. THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK

This chapter presents the theories used to create the overall framework for the study. The first theory is called Evolutionary Governance Theory which establishes the premise for the institutionalist approach. The second theory is a blend between energy smart planning and communicative planning theory. The combination of these two is motivated by how they both approach iterative planning as a way to establish cooperation, which prevalent in how policy and planning documents are written. By adapting an institutionalist approach that utilizes modern thoughts on cooperative energy planning, polices and plans can be deduced in a way that is backed by established scientific research.

3.1 Evolutionary Governance Theory Evolutionary governance theory was chosen as an explanatory framework for governance or community-based decision-making, and how it has evolved in unison with institutions and organisations instead of being a static form of power. A similar progression can be seen in the energy sector, as the view of fossil fuels and their institutional relevance in Nordic society has undergone a drastic transformation from being a staple in the industry, to being alienated and categorised as unsustainable. Thus, evolutionary governance theory might help illuminate institutional agency and how it has affected the transition to a sustainable energy system.

The term governance does not have an all-encompassing definition, as it varies depending on the context in which it is used, as well as the entities it is being applied to such as actors, knowledge, politics, objects, subjects, institutions and organizations to name a few (Beunen et al. 2015: 21). However, the basis of governance theory is derived from the idea that governmental structure in western society has changed “from central steering and expert- driven decision-making to more participatory forms of democracy” (Beunen et al. 2015: 6-7). This supposed shift in decision-making with governance replacing government is well documented in academic literature and relates to the idea that networks and social connections have seized control from the traditional hierarchical structures in society, replacing them with more dispersed entities of power (Davies 2012: 2). Global governance theory similarly holds this position but on a bigger scale, as it “refers to the exercise of authority across national borders as well as consented norms and rules beyond the nation state” (Zürn 2018: 4). This proclamation is plausible due to the backing by the numeral global institutions and organisations that operate similarly and often towards the same goal. However, authors such as Davies (2012: 10) have made valid points in remarking that although governance theory can be applied to modern society, most adaptions fail to observe the importance of “hard power” and how material incentives still hold a grip over agency. However, evolutionary governance theory attempts to solve this issue.

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Evolutionary governance theory or EGT, takes the concept of governance one step further, by emphasising that decision-making structures are not static, but do change and adapt to the scenario in a similar way that actors do. This is because governance in its simplest form is made up by actors whose beliefs, ideologies and norms affect the discourse and steer the decision- making process. Contrary to the theory’s earlier adaptions, EGT does not assess the transition to governance as a specific structural shift, rather beholds the changes in governance as a constantly evolving mechanism (Beunen et al. 2014: 4). According to Beunen et al. (2014: 3), EGT is an interdisciplinary approach to decision-making structures, as it builds upon ideas from economics, political science, sociology, philosophy and other actor related studies. Hence the foundations of EGT also borrow from other established theoretical frameworks, namely social system theory, post-structuralism, institutional and development economics (Beunen et al. 2014: 9) • Social System Theory builds upon the idea that communication is the key aspect in social systems and that these systems “are nothing else than on-going processes of interpretation and reinterpretation of internal and external environments” (Beunen et al. 2014: 10). Furthermore, these systems can be divided into three distinct categories depending on the scale of interaction. Firstly, social systems can be found in conversations as ideas and values can be communicated to an extent. Secondly, communication can be found in organizations as social systems with boundaries tend to reproduce “by means of decisions” (Beunen et al. 2014: 10). Lastly, we have function systems which work as communication via a unified perspective, in other words communication created as the result actors striving for a singular goal that is not restricted by membership

• Poststructuralism is a broad framework, but in the context of EGT it can be understood as “a constructivist epistemology”, a way to comprehend how realities are constructed and collide through discourse (Beunen et al. 2014: 12). In simplified terms, all actions we take, interactions we make, communications we establish and norms we uphold exist within discursive structures that change over time as a result of structural shifts. Although discourses change, the foundations are based upon the previous discursive structure, which means that for all intents and purposes it evolves into a discursive structure better adapted for the times. In this sense, it is similar to how governance theory describes societal structures, and how they change and reproduce in accordance to the public discourse.

• Institutional and development economics wraps up social system theory and poststructuralism by adding the missing piece to the formula, namely explaining the role of market behaviour and institutional agency. Firstly, institutional and development economics acknowledge that institutions, organisations and markets have evolved either through formal or informal means in tandem with politics, public

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discourse and the rule of law (Beunen et al. 2014: 13). Secondly, due to this co- evolution, markets and institutions are intrinsically intertwined and affect each other’s interests, which has resulted in market influence and institutional agency being more dispersed. Thirdly, the dispersion of influence and agency can be interpreted as the progression towards a free market which differs depending on the discursive structure (Beunen et al. 2014: 13). In summary market behaviour and institutional agency shape each other and base their foundations within discursive structures. It also means “that no logic of action (e.g. of rational market behaviour) can be distilled independent of discourse” (Beunen et al. 2014: 13). Although the foundations of the EGT framework have been explained, some basic concept within the theory need to be summarised, as the practical application cannot be properly understood without them. Firstly, the concepts of formal, informal and dead institutions are relevant to EGT as they contextualise how and why certain decisions are made. Formal institutions are often associated with the state, their actions, decisions, organizations and rule of law, while informal institutions are associated with alternative actions, decisions and so on (Beunen et al. 2015: 338-339). According to Beunen et al. (2014: 22), “formal institutions are not only embedded in informality, but carry it as a shadow of alternative coordination options”, which makes the difference between formal and informal a choice of labelling or with whom legitimacy resides. Dead institutions on the other hand, are referred to as written down institutions that no longer hold any meaning to modern society but were once considered formal. As any historical text, they show a version of what once was, but can never be fully revived as they have been replaced by new formal and informal coordination options (Beunen et al. 2015: 339; Beunen et al. 2014: 22). Secondly, as EGT uses a framework with a constructivist epistemological stance, it naturally views reality as constructed with material and immaterial differentiations. That includes the construction of conceptual boundaries, specifically spatial and social boundaries. Spatial and social boundaries, separate place from social identity, effectively perceiving the formation of objects and subjects as different entities (Beunen et al. 2014: 38-39). Although separate, they influence eachother as for example social groups identifying themselves as citizens of a country, which with all intents and purposes is a spatial boundary. In addition to influencing eachother, spatial and social boundaries can also construct new conceptual boundaries, by fore example morphing social groups together to create a new social group that identify with eachother within a spatial boundary. Beunen et al. (2014: 39), exemplify this by inferring to how Celts and Franks eventually merged and became Frenchmen. In summary, by first distinguishing the differences of conceptual boundaries, it becomes easier to see how actors and organizations interact within space and reshape it.

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Thirdly, EGT follows Focault’s and Flyvberg’s thoughts on knowledge and power, whom imply that both concepts are intertwined as power defines what counts as rationality and knowledge, while knowledge is a form of power. Power is neither inherently good nor bad, rather it is a force that can be perceived as good or bad depending on how it is used. Actors, groups and organizations constantly reinforce and legitimize their position through knowledge and power, which in turn informs their actions and decisions. Governance in this sense, serves as the collective where “binding decisions are strived for, and decisions with an impact on the lives of many are institutionalised e.g. in the form of policies, plans, and laws” (Beunen et al. 2014: 41-42). The last concept that helps describe the application of EGT, is the concept of narrative. According to Beunen et al. (2014: 45), narratives can give actors, institutions and objects legitimacy by influencing the discursive structure. Narratives can also make societal concepts more palatable for the general public by infusing values and criteria that better fit the discursive structure. In a sense those who have the power to implement narratives, can hypothetically create stories that vilify or glorify agendas to serve one owns purposes. However, as Beunen et al. (2014: 47) explain, power distribution in a governance system is seldom unified to a degree that actors, organisations and institutions can create a tyrannical narrative that disenfranchises a community. As any theoretical framework that utilizes ideas and concepts from multiple disciplines, the applied scenario becomes key to interpreting and understanding the underlying processes. As governance “is the coordination of collectively binding decisions for a community” that consists of actors, organizations, institutions and discourses, the theoretical framework is best utilized from a top-down perspective (Beunen et al. 2014: 79). Furthermore, EGT being an experimental adaption of governance, most arguments are still adapted through the lens of the original theory but with the mindset that actors, knowledge, politics, objects, subjects, institutions and organizations have co-evolved. However, to avoid the risk of becoming too vague, it is suggested that EGT be applied via three different configurations: 1. Configuration of formal and informal institutions a. Assessing patterns of formal, informal and dead institutions that have resulted from a specific governance evolution. 2. Configuration of actors and institutions a. Assessing how actors transform in governance. How they coordinate, confront, strategize, idealize and involve themselves in policies, plans and laws. 3. Configuration of power and knowledge a. Assessing the power struggle between actors, their values and norms. Interactions such as confrontations, competitions, cooperation and compromise all play a role in the analyses as transformations in the status quo leads to new insights in governance.

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These three configurations are similar to the methodology that is to be used in the analysis, which is why EGT can help find decision-making motives within a field that is evolving from a well-established energy system to a sustainable energy system. These ideas will be further enhanced by energy smart and communicative planning theory, as they add concepts specific to the energy sector, as well as gives a more practical framework for how to read plans, policies and reports.

3.2 Energy smart and communicative planning According to Maltese et al. (2016: 25) the term smart cities is derived from the concept of urban smartness, which considers sustainability, governance, spatiality and mobility as part of the planning process. Without going into particulars, the concept of what is to be considered smart has evolved into more nuanced fields of urban planning, one of which is energy smart planning. Energy smart planning in this context is not a concrete theory, but rather a collection of ideas from different disciplines, which contribute to the understanding of how sustainable and energy efficient societies can be planned. Most of the ideas are borrowed from planning theory, as the fundamental concept is to strive for the improvement of human utilized space (FFS 2016: 13). Factors such as public discourse, power relations, networks, policy, rule of law, norms, market behaviour and more, all play a role in how well energy smart planning can be implemented and run sustainably. Furthermore, planning energy smart cities and transitioning to a new energy system, creates a situation where innovation and technology are often asserted as the key to success. However, it is a common mistake to view technology as free pass to success and ignore the difficulties that arise from treading on new ground. According to Papa and Fistola (2016: v), there needs to be a change in the mindset of how we implement technology in the planning process, by adopting technology as a part of the planning process, instead of merely adding technology to existing plans. In other words, current models of planning regarding energy systems must be updated to incorporate new perspectives about energy, as unknown issues tend to appear when approaching new territory. Furthermore, the replacement of any societal system brings a web of issues that are seldom contained within itself. Stoeglehner et al. (2016: 1) describe the transition towards a sustainable energy system as a confrontation against:

“the base values of society, the interplay of different policies with relevance for energy policy (e.g., economic policies, agricultural policies, fiscal policies, environmental policies), the availability of technologies, regional and local resource potentials, demographic development of societies, individual lifestyles, economic practices as well as the physical and planned spatial development”.

Thus, the simplistic view that implementing new technology to existing plans and overriding policy for the benefit of sustainability, is anything but simple. But circling around the issues and describing the topic with fancy terms does not bring us closer to a practical model that can be applied to reality. Luckily, to combat the problems of unsustainable energy practices, there

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has been an increase in energy research and how practical models could be implemented on a national scale. In the report named “Energismart samhällsplanering” which was created as part of the EU- project SPECIAL (Spatial Planning and Energy for Communities In All Landscapes), some of the latest tools and methods on how energy smart planning can be done in practice, have been gathered (FFS 2016: 5). One of the tools presented is called “4 big leaps and 20 small steps” and it portrays energy smart planning in a systematic yet flexible way (FFS 2016: 28). Although this framework focuses on more locally based projects, the strategy integrates energy questions into planning and policy. This framework is set up as an iterative planning tool which promotes interdisciplinary collaboration. This means that the planning process is done in stages, as numeral factors need to be considered before creating an overall picture of the opportunities and issues that are related to the planning area. Planning projects are usually broad in scope and involves multiple actors whose knowledge and experience contribute to the overall efficiency of the planning process (FFS 2016: 30). When working on a general level such as a regional project, it is more important to focus on a few key issues that are relevant to the topic, instead of going into details. That said, every planning project needs an overview of the spatial properties of the area as well as general knowledge about existing structures (FFS 2016: 32). Energy questions are assessed similarly and are in a way the focal point in how the structures operate. Although the framework gives tools to analyse projects about energy planning, this study needs an additional framework how to analyse energy policy. Thus, to understand an energy system, structures such as energy supply and use, as well as challenges and opportunities need to be incorporated in the study for contextual discernment (presented in chapter 5). The aforementioned framework is contextually similar to what is called collaborative or communicative planning theory, which also views planning as an “interactive and iterative process that involves several fluid and overlapping discourse groups” (Healey 1993: 88; Healey 1997: 34; Khakee 2000: 120). Communicative planning was established as several planning practices came to believe that urban and regional change were aligned with the processes of governance through which political communities could collectively address their common dilemmas (Healey 1997: 30). Before then it was widely accepted that “the state could 'take charge' and 'control' spatial organisation and the location of development, in contrast to the current interest in the combination of flexible enabling and regulatory governance” (Healey 1997: 4-5). Over the years the theory has mostly been applied to local forms of planning or broad perspectives of institutional collaboration, since it is easier to distinguish collaboration on a specific level. However, some authors have criticised this type of application of communicative planning theory, as it has the tendency to ignore the overall context, the importance of power and conflicting agendas (Calderon & Westin 2019: 1). Be it short-term local planning or long-term institutional policies, on their own they “provide limited insights into how context influences specific collaborative planning processes, i.e. sequences of

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facilitated activities intended to enable deliberation between multiple stakeholders across differences towards consensual outcomes” (Calderon & Westin 2019: 2). Planners, actors, organizations, stakeholders are all rooted in institutions and form community-based agency, which is why it is detrimental to perceive national and the local actions as inherently separate. Therefore, this thesis applies an interregional view of the energy system and uses communicative planning as a contextual tool to dissect plans and policy and consequently interpret meaning behind intent and language. As mentioned in chapter 2, the study utilizes a framework developed as a tool for communicative planning. By examining policy and plans in this way, themes, issues and opportunities become tangible and easier to analyse. According to Khakee (2000: 134), by adapting an institutional approach and reading plans and policies in an iterative way, patterns such as how language often conceal a deeper meaning, become clearer. Khakee (2000: 120) also emphasises the importance of examining for whom the text is written, as:

“in communicative planning, the readership includes all those who are affected by the plan, the text of the plan is a result of interactive discourse and the resulting set of guidelines provide a ‘direction of travel’ that is accepted by those involved and can be changed if required”. Although this is a broad statement over the readership, it still holds a valid point in that most texts are written in a way that caters to a certain discourse. The discourse can also be moulded by stakeholders to fit a certain narrative and help direct interests towards a desired outcome (Healey 1993: 84). In the light of this, there are five things to look out for in texts, when reading them as products of a broad discourse (Khakee 2000: 134). Firstly, narrative often emphasises the role of various actors within a specific context. In other words, highlighting agency in a common system of meaning (Healey 1993: 85). Secondly, legal and political explanations are often used to give legitimacy. Thirdly, the context helps clarify how structures and social relations correlate. Fourthly, the examination of the discourse helps clarify how institutional capital is generated. Lastly, communicative qualities are nurtured in order to appreciate the power of language and are essential to change the material conditions. As evolutionary governance theory, energy smart and communicative planning theory can be considered informed by an institutionalist perspective, it seems rational to adapt an institutionalist approach in the analysis of energy policy as well. The evaluation hence becomes a study of not only the integrity of energy policy but also the effectiveness and legitimacy of its implementation. By questioning how relevant institutions, organisations and actors promote a certain discourse in plans and policy and to what extent the language in these texts reflect reality, a clearer view of the overall situation can be established.

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4. AN INSIGHT INTO THE NORDIC ENERGY PERSPECTIVE

To establish a depiction of how the Nordic countries perceive the energy sector and its subsequent transition to a more sustainable energy system, it is helpful to examine how countries collaborate regarding policy and research. As mentioned earlier, the progress of sustainable energy technology and environmental protection has become an increasingly international topic. As policy and discourse have moved towards highlighting the issues of our current energy systems, so has the cooperation increased between countries to fix them. It is important to emphasize the transition from global to national to regional, since most of regional energy policies start at the international level, with certain goals being set and boundaries being established. However, there are some issues that arise when adapting international policy as national policy, as pre-existing conditions vary greatly depending on infrastructure and available energy sources. Fortunately, the energy sector is co-operative by nature, as the import and export of fuels, electricity and other energy related materials need to be in a constant balance to avoid deficiencies in supply and demand (International Energy Agency 2019: 110- 111). It is therefore fruitful to discuss sustainable energy systems from a Nordic perspective, as there already exist co-operation between the countries and the energy infrastructure is similar. The Nordic countries have during the past decade established an effective collaboration of research and development to support the goals of the Paris agreement. One of these collaborative organisations is the Nordic Energy Research (2019), which is a “platform for cooperative energy research and policy development reporting to the Nordic Council of Ministers”. The platform consists of the five Nordic countries, Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Norway and Iceland which are also responsible for the majority of the funding. The main target of the platform is to help institutions and organizations establish a unified perspective and help transition the Nordic energy systems towards becoming decarbonised. According to Nordic Energy Research and the International Energy Agency (2016: 12):

“there is a clear technological and economical pathway for the Nordic region to push towards a near carbon-neutral energy system in 2050. Together, Nordic countries can send a strong signal to the global community that the ambitious aims of the Paris Climate Agreement are achievable”.

Nordic electricity generation is already 87 per cent decarbonised, which is a testament to the improving sustainable development of the energy sector (Nordic Energy Research 2020: 10). However, this was not achieved without having some form of strategy to direct policymakers on a domestic level to adapt. According to the collaborative report Nordic Energy Technology Perspectives 2016 (NETP 2016), four short-term policy suggestions and three long-term main strategic actions have been the main drivers of Nordic cooperation regarding energy policy and governance for a carbon-neutral energy system (Nordic Energy Research & International Energy Agency 2016). The short-term policy suggestions promote:

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• Incentivising investment in innovative technologies and services to increase the flexibility of energy use in the Nordic energy system. • Boosting the cooperation between Nordic and European countries to develop a coherent transmission network and electricity market. • Ensuring long-term competitiveness of Nordic industries while reducing emissions from industrial processes. • Accelerating transport decarbonisation using tried and tested policies and means of control. The long-term strategic actions on the other hand present more of a broad guideline on how to move forward in achieving the carbon-neutral scenario by the year 2050. These are:

• Plan for a Nordic electricity system that is significantly more interconnected to Europe, as well as being flexible to a more distributed electricity supply with a high share of wind power. • Ramp up development of short-distance transport electrification, long-distance transport decarbonisation and innovation of industrial carbon capture and storage technology. • Strengthen national decarbonisation of metropolitan areas by aligning national and local policy in developing energy efficiency initiatives in transportation and construction.

Every year Nordic Energy Research (2020) follows up upon how well the Nordic countries have adapted to the strategies set in NETP 2016. Nordic Energy Research (2020: 5) has recognised eight areas of interest, which have been analysed according to how much progress has been made in the past decade. These are: • Transforming the power sector – good progress o Most of the Nordic countries have increased their production of electricity from renewable energy sources and decreased the use of fossil fuels, which consequently has reduced the generation of CO² emissions in the past decade by a third. • Electrification of transport – average progress o Although Norway has seen a spike in the usage of electric vehicles, the average usage of electric vehicles in the Nordic countries is only about 3 per cent. • Green mobility – average progress o Several policies that encourage the use of sustainable transportation have been implemented in Nordic cities, such as bicycles, kickboards and electrical busses. However, transportation via car still accounts for 85 per cent of the daily transport, which contributes to increased levels of carbon dioxide emissions, especially in metropolitan areas. • Electrification of heat supply – average progress

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o The heating of biomass is still essential in district heating, but due to increased efficiency of wind and solar power in producing heat via electrification, portions of biomass can now be used in other areas. • Decarbonisation of industry – slow progress o The effective use of residual heat energy created in industrial production is still technologically unviable. Although the Nordic countries are comparably resource efficient to other European countries, public and private policies hinder any significant progress. • Boosting bioenergy – slow progress o The demand for bioenergy converted to biofuel has increased, but the supply has not been able to keep up, resulting in the majority of the supply still going into heavy transportation while neglecting personal vehicles. • Energy efficient and smart buildings – slow progress o Although carbon dioxide emissions have decreased in housing, the energy demand has only shown slight decrease which remains strain on the energy system. The way infrastructure is constructed is still deemed inefficient. • Energy storage – slow progress o Energy storage is by no means the biggest problem facing the Nordic countries which generally have good amounts of storage capacity via hydro reservoirs. The issue lies in efficient use and the slow progress of new technologies that can eventually decrease CO² emissions. Although the progress might look dim, it is important to note that these targets are meant to track the progress of achieving carbon neutrality in the Nordic countries by the year 2050 (Nordic Energy Research 2020: 4). Thus, it is fair to say that Nordic energy systems have come a fair bit of the way in establishing cooperation of sustainable energy development, but still have far to go. In the light of this, there are some differences in how the Nordic energy systems work regarding energy supply and use, compared to the rest of the EU. According to Nordic Energy Research (2020: 8), the Nordic region has good opportunities to utilize renewable energy sources due to varied landscapes. For example, Sweden has constructed numeral hydropower plants from renewable energy sources such as rivers, lakes and other water ways, while Norway has utilized wind power by constructing massive wind parks both on land and sea. As of 2016, only 41 per cent of the total energy supply came from fossil fuels, compared to EU’s 73 per cent. While, 46 per cent of the Nordic energy supply was converted from renewable energy sources, whereas EU averaged around 16 per cent (SOU 2017:2: 72). However, the dependence of renewable energy sources in Nordic energy systems is not necessarily always a good thing. Due to the climate, geographical location and choice of power generation, energy supply and use vary greatly as seasonal changes directly influence electricity production capabilities and infrastructural energy use. Furthermore, “economic and technical potential in the Nordic

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region is relatively limited for decentralised power generation options […] which are transforming electricity systems elsewhere in Europe” (Nordic Energy Research & International Energy Agency 2016: 53). In other words, although the production of electricity from renewable energy sources such as hydropower will remain important within the Nordic region, there are concerns regarding the expansion of other energy sources such as solar power, as well as how the energy can be distributed within the Nordic region and the rest of Europe. Another reason for this concern is the uncertainty of the future of nuclear power, especially in Sweden where about 40 per cent of all electricity produced comes from nuclear power (Swedish Energy Agency 2019). As of 2015 Sweden has closed three nuclear reactors due to low market price, old infrastructure and the increased competition from renewables, which arguably bodes a radical change in the Nordic energy market (Nordic Energy Research & International Energy Agency 2016: 212). However, there exists light in the tunnel if the development of renewable energy sources continues to improve and expand within the Nordic region. According to Nordic Energy Research (2020: 10):

“the main transition from fossil fuels is driven by a five-fold increase in wind generation by 2050, mainly onshore, which also displaces nuclear power. Given the sharp drop in PV prices observed since 2016, it is likely that solar power could also provide a considerable and cost-effective contribution”.

However, this also means a massive restructuring of the energy systems operating capacity, which is not equal in all Nordic countries.

The overall portrayal of energy systems within the Nordic countries can be deduced as positive, at least in the sense of having established concrete strategies to follow. The progress of achieving the carbon-free goal by the year 2050 seems strict, but it is also a testament to unified decision-making and the cooperation of institutions and organizations to move towards a sustainable future.

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5. AN INSIGHT INTO THE SWEDISH ENERGY PERSPECTIVE

To understand Swedish energy policy, it is important to first contextualise the energy system and give a background to the current discourse. Sweden is generally referenced as one of the most successful countries in transitioning towards a low-carbon emitting energy system, that capitalises on industrial heat to warm households and other facilities (Di Lucia & Ericsson 2014: 10). According to a report published by the International Energy Agency (2019: 11), Sweden currently has “the second-lowest carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions per gross domestic product (GDP) among the International Energy Agency (IEA) member countries (after Switzerland) and the second lowest CO2 emissions per capita (after Mexico)”. The Swedish energy system utilizes renewable energy sources to a large degree, but a small part of the energy supply still consists of imported fossil fuels. Sweden's low import dependence can largely be explained by the availability of domestic renewable energy sources, particularly bioenergy and hydropower (SOU 2017:2: 80). Although having decent amount of low-grade uranium to produce nuclear power, the scarce availability of fossil fuels has encouraged the use of renewable energy sources as an alternative. In this sense, the transition towards a sustainable energy system can be understood as the only viable course of action, as the import of vast amounts of fossil fuels would be economically unsustainable. Currently, Sweden’s production of electricity mainly comes from two sources, hydropower and nuclear power, as can be seen in Figure 3. Together they stand for about 80 per cent of the total electricity generation (Swedish Energy Agency 2019: 7).

Figure 3: Swedish electricity generation 2017. Source: Swedish Energy Agency 2019.

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This combination has existed since 1970s, as hydropower and nuclear power have given stability and flexibility to Swedish electricity generation (SOU 2017:2: 90). In recent years, under the support system for renewable electricity, wind power has gotten more attention and has subsequently expanded at a rapid rate. But, as shown in Table 2, power output is not solely dependent on infrastructural expansion, as power output depends on numeral factors which will be elaborated upon later. Table 2: Sweden’s electricity production per power source.

Type of power conversion 2017 2018 Nuclear power 63,0 TWh 65,8 TWh Hydropower 64,6 TWh 61,8 TWh Wind power 17,6 TWh 16,6 TWh Import 11,9 TWh 12,2 TWh Combined heat and power (CHP) 8,7 TWh 8,8 TWh Industrial combined heat and power 5,9 TWh 5,9 TWh Solar energy 0,2 TWh 0,4 TWh Source: Statistiska centralbyrån 2019a.

From a renewable energy perspective, hydropower is by far the most important source of the Swedish electricity production, generating about 65 TWh annually (Swedish Energy Agency 2019: 7). The construction of hydropower plants is directly connected to the establishment of the Swedish transmission network and influencing the designs of other electric power systems (SOU 2017:2: 96). Hence, most hydropower plants are different by design as their early development, geographical location and construction technique, have changed over time. Furthermore, it is difficult to measure individual electricity generation per power plant as production varies from day to day. The high dependence on water way placement and seasonal rain can create variations as large as 27 TWh between the lowest and highest annual production (SOU 2017:2: 96).

The other big electricity generator is nuclear power, which also generates around 65 TWh annually. Nuclear power does not depend on weather or seasonal change like hydropower, rather production depends on human action and flawlessness of operating the system. Long stops, safety work or unplanned events can result in differences up to 25 TWh depending on the year (SOU 2017:2: 98). However, one of the advantages of nuclear power is that it does not generate greenhouse gas emission during the production stage. It is mainly the disposal of the nuclear fuel and the radioactivity that are the causes for concern.

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Electricity production from combined heat and power or CHP, is different from the aforementioned conversion types, as both heat and electricity is produced at the same time. Although only generating around 9 TWh annually, CHP is seen as one of the most energy- efficient types of production in Sweden as the cogeneration of electricity and heat is used in both industrial processes as well as district heating (SOU 2017:2: 99-100, Swedish Energy Agency 2019: 7). District heating plays an important role in Sweden’s energy system, especially in urban areas with large interconnected housing complexes. “The production of district heating is among the areas where the use of biofuels has been able to rapidly expand and replace oil as a fuel for residential and commercial heating” (SOU 2014:37: 11). However, in recent years, district heating has been facing stagnation in production due to competition from local industrial combined heat and power production. This has diminished the demand over longer periods of time, only seeing higher distribution during the winter season. According to SOU 2014:37 (2014:11), this is a market issue which has to do with the selling price of CHP, which could become a threat to the profitability of district heating companies. Wind power on the other hand, has become an increasingly important part of Swedish electricity production as the potential for expanding wind power in several parts of the country, is seen as lucrative from both a national and a Nordic perspective. As of 2017 wind power generates about 17 TWh annually, as seen in Table 2, with an expected increase in the coming years when additional wind turbines are built. An onshore wind turbine can produce electricity between 80 and 90 per cent of the time during the year, of which full effect is about 35–45 per cent of the time (SOU 2017:2: 99-100). However, wind turbines are most effective during the colder seasons. Solar power currently only generates about 0,4 TWh annually, even though implementation of solar cells on roofs saw an increase of 67 per cent from 2017 to 2018 (Statistiska centralbyrån 2019a; Swedish Energy Agency 2019: 7). Although the Nordic countries have dark seasons that are not particularly well suited for the of use solar cells as other European countries, there are good opportunities in the future to implement a combination of wind, solar and hydropower to store electricity for a seasonal distribution system (SOU 2017:2: 105).

Since the 1970’s the total energy supply in Sweden has increased from 442 TWh annually to about 552 TWh as of 2018 (SOU 2017:2: 89; Swedish Energy Agency 2020a). As the energy sector always needs to be in balance, the total energy use also amounted to 552 TWh as of 2018. Sweden’s energy use has somewhat stagnated in the past decade in spite of major societal changes and population increase, as mutually opposing forces such as policy changes and better utilization of residual energy has kept energy use from skyrocketing. However, the country still uses large amounts of energy compared to the rest of the world. Currently energy use in Sweden per capita is about 50 per cent higher than the average European country (SOU 2017:2: 80). This is mainly due to geographic location, the cold climate, a high domestic material consumption as well as an intensive export industry which requires long-distance

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transportation. Energy-intensive industries such as paper, iron and steel account for a large part of the Swedish production (SOU 2014:37: 30). As can be seen in Figure 4, energy use is divided up between three user sectors, housing and service, industry and transport. The housing and service sector mostly consists of building energy use in the form of district heating, electricity and biofuels. The industrial sector mainly uses energy in the form of biofuels, electricity and fossil fuels to run industrial processes. The transport sector mainly uses energy in the form of oil-based fuels such as petrol, diesel, kerosene and an increasing proportion of biofuels (SOU 2017:2: 77).

Figure 4: Energy source and use 2017. Source: Swedish Energy Agency 2019.

According to the statistics, the Swedish energy system seems to be functioning well since the system is in balance, ergo the annual energy supply is as large as the annual energy use. This includes energy storage, conversion, transmission losses and the export or import of energy. However, it is important to note that the production of electricity is not an evenly distributed

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commodity. In fact, most of the production facilities in Sweden are situated in the northern parts, which puts a strain on the nation-wide distribution. The situation was made even worse in November of 2011, as Sweden’s electricity network was divided into four geographic regions, as can seen in Figure 5.

Figure 5: Map of the four different electricity regions, indicating excess of electricity in the north and deficit of electricity in the south. Source: Compricer 2012.

The transition towards four energy markets was a part of an action plan proposed by the EU, to integrate European countries into unified energy market (EMIR 2007:02: 7; Energimarknadsbyrån 2020). The plan emphasised the need for a better cross-border trade and accelerated development of inter-regional energy cooperation. This also meant that regional energy markets needed to be established where the infrastructure simply did not exist or operated in a limited capacity. In a report regarding the Swedish adoption of EU’s vision (EMIR 2007:02: 33), there were concerns even before the plan was put in action regarding the electricity production and distribution in SE3 and especially SE4. There were three reasons for the concern. Firstly, the cold climate, long transport distances and the high material

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consumption have always played a role in Sweden’s high energy use per capita as well as per unit of GDP (SOU 2014:37: 7). The drastic seasonal changes have made it difficult to balance electricity generation, especially for wind power and solar power. Secondly, the Swedish distribution network was never constructed to handle large-scale cross-border trade, as it was mostly set up to handle local and regional energy needs. In other words, the power system was never constructed to cover distribution around the whole country, which means that there exist bottlenecks between the energy regions that limit the transfer of electricity. Although new power lines have been constructed to establish the Nordic energy market, the transmission network is still ancient by modern standards (SOU 2017:2: 15). Thirdly, at the time the report was published, the trickle down of nuclear power and the closing of nuclear reactors had already begun. With the reactors of Barsebäck 1 being shut down in 1999 and Barsebäck 2 in 2005, an imbalance in Sweden’s geographical production capacity was created, with only 10 per cent of domestic production residing in SE4 (SOU 2017:2: 98; EMIR 2007:02: 66). Since then, the reactors Oskarshamn 1 and 2 as well as Ringhals 2 have been shut down, with the reactor Ringhals 1 being shut down later this year (SOU 2017:2: 98). Naturally, this has expanded the gap between energy production capacity and energy demand even further. However it is important to note, that these shut downs were going to happen sooner or later, as many reactors in Sweden are becoming too old to operate safely. These problems show that although Sweden is praised for being top notch in the energy world, no system is without its faults and that there will always be challenges that need to be hammered out for the system to operate efficiently. Although the government does not have direct control over the physical planning, as that responsibility is given to the municipalities, the government can still implement policies and national interests to direct planning efforts (SOU 2017:2: 103-104). It is therefore of interest to look how Swedish policymakers view the transition towards a sustainable energy system, and how they can affect future efforts.

“The Energy Policy Commission has examined and compiled the results of a number of scenarios for future demand for energy, primarily electrical energy. The scenarios clearly illustrate the great uncertainties involved in judging future consumption of electricity” (SOU 2017:2: 21).

According to the report SOU 2017:2 (2017: 14), Sweden’s energy policy must focus on the efficient energy use but also on the application of power. There is a need to develop solutions that increase flexibility in the energy system so that the country is not negatively impacted by fluctuations in production. Great emphasis must be put on diversifying the power system and production facilities, so that it can be better incorporated to an international energy system (SOU 2017:2: 14-15). This is the perspective that Swedish energy policy is largely based upon, along with the proposals and laws set by institutions within the European Union, such as the Paris agreement and Agenda 2030 (UNFCCC 2020; Swedish Energy Agency 2019: 5).

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“Sweden defined its current long-term energy policy goals in the 2016 Framework Agreement on Energy Policy (Energy Agreement). A large majority in the parliament, which represented both the government and the opposition, supported the Agreement” (International Energy Agency 2019: 11).

These policy goals were adapted to the current needs and challenges Sweden faces. Firstly, there is a need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions that arise from industrial production and the transport sector. Secondly, there is a need to increase the share of renewable energy produced in transitioning to a more sustainable energy system. Thirdly, the energy sector must become more energy efficient to be economically viable (Wretling et al. 2018: 688). The exact energy and climate goals, seen in Table 3, have been updated over the years to better fit international calculations of what needs be changed.

Table 3: Swedish energy and climate goals.

Swedish energy and climate goals: Base year Target year To reduce 40 per cent of emissions from sectors not included 1990 2020 in the EU Emissions trading system.

To reduce 63 per cent of emissions from sectors not included 1990 2030 in the EU Emissions trading system.

To reduce 70 per cent of emissions created from domestic 2010 2030 transports

To reduce 75 per cent of emissions from sectors not included 1990 2040 in the EU Emissions trading system.

Achieve net zero greenhouse gas emissions into the 1990 2045 atmosphere, of which 85 per cent of reduction must happen domestically 50 per cent share of renewable energy in total energy - 2020 consumption.

50 per cent more efficient energy use. 2005 2030

100 per cent of the electricity production shall come from - 2040 renewable energy sources (Not an end-date for nuclear power). Source: Swedish Energy agency 2020b. The process of how these goals were established is an important part to the study, as policymakers have great influence over the public’s opinion about the current discourse. If policymakers decide to implement a certain narrative via policy, it is likely to be adapted further

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down the chain and affect how the energy system is percieved. Thus, the next part will present some key points in the steering national energy and climate policy documents that have been published since 2016.

5.1 National policy 5.1.1 Key points in the Framework Agreement on Swedish energy policy On the 10th of June 2016 a framework agreement was made in the parliament between the Swedish Social Democratic Party, the Moderate Party, the Swedish Green Party, the Centre Party and the Christian Democrats regarding the transition towards a new energy system. The framework agreement was meant to be the first step in establishing a unified energy policy that adapt the climate discourse set within the EU. Thus, three essential aims of how policy should be approached were presented, namely ecological sustainability, competitiveness and security of supply (Swedish government 2016: 1). The framework agreement established three climate and energy policy targets. Firstly, the framework set the target of 100 per cent renewable electricity production for the year of 2040. Secondly, it set the target of no net greenhouse gas emission in the atmosphere by the year 2045. And thirdly, set up a research group to establish targets for energy-efficiency adoption for the years 2020 and 2030, which was later specified as 50 per cent more efficient energy consumption by 2030 compared to 2005 (Swedish government 2016: 1; Swedish Energy Agency 2019: 5). Although not being as detailed as the enquiry that was later requested by the parliament (SOU 2017:2), the framework agreement laid some solid foundations on what needed to be changed in the Swedish energy system.

“Better conditions are needed for investments in renewable energy, energy technologies and energy efficiency. Development of the energy system should be based on a variety of large- and small-scale renewable production that is tailored to local and industrial needs” (Swedish government 2016: 1).

The first point regards the upkeep of nuclear power. In summary, all nuclear power plants need to be modernised by the year 2020 to meet safety requirements or be expected to cease operations (Swedish government 2016: 2). The venture will not be subsidised by the government, which means that the plant owners themselves are required to invest a sizeable amount in the refurbishment of the nuclear reactors to be able to continue operating. Furthermore, all the waste generated, and costs associated with it, is to remain the responsibility of the owners. However, this did not mean that nuclear power plants were incentivised to shut down, rather to modernize, expand and if possible, increase efficiency. The second point regards hydropower and how it should be utilized in the future. Hydropower is described as essential in the transition toward a sustainable energy system and the future of

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other renewable energy sources, especially wind and solar power. However, as mentioned earlier these hydropower plants being varied in terms of design and modernity, they must also be reconditioned to meet current environmental requirement (Swedish government 2016: 3). Although these conditions are compulsory, they are not meant to be financially draining on the owners, as to be unreasonable to continue operating. Although hydropower is encouraged to expand it is suggested that it mostly be by increasing the output of existing hydropower plants, as most water ways will remain protected and not eligible for construction. The third point suggests the support for renewable energy sources be increased. The Swedish landscape is described as excellent for renewable electricity production, which in the future can become a major export resource (Swedish government 2016: 3). It is also suggested that district heating should get more attention and become a legitimate competitor on the energy market, as it is a useful tool to combat the drastic seasonal changes in the Nordic countries. However, for this to be possible there needs to be a drastic change in the electricity network, as the current network cannot handle an increased power output. The fourth point describes production and consumption. It is advised that policy makers take into account technological innovation when developing frameworks that describe energy production, as the current system might change drastically when new products hit the market or is applied in the energy sector, such as new energy storage technology (Swedish government 2016: 4). On the other hand, electricity consumption should be reduced by encouraging energy efficient use, specifically in the residential and industrial sectors. Although no specific example is given to how this should be done, it is an important notion for policy makers to keep in mind as population growth and increased industrial production can become an issue. The fifth point describes the current transmission network. “The transmission capacity in Sweden is of major significance, given that large-scale production takes place in northern Sweden while the main demand is located in the south of the country” (Swedish government 2016: 5). As Sweden has become part of a larger energy market, the transmission network has received increased importance. The goal is for the Nordic countries and Europe to become a unified market so that import and export of energy become more flexible, effectively avoiding holdups of energy supply and demand. For this to happen the transmission network needs to be improved to hold a greater capacity both within the country and outward.

There were other points mentioned in the framework agreement, as for example the concerns of market design and how it might have to change to better suit the new environment. However, when the framework was written no market analysis had been done, so it was only mentioned in broad terms with no concrete model yet to be applied. The basis of this framework agreement was nevertheless to be used as the leading document for the following enquiries and climate and energy strategies which will be presented further on.

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5.1.2 Key points in SOU 2017:2 “Kraftsamling för framtidens energi” On March 5th, 2015, the Swedish government decided to establish a parliamentary commission by the name of The Swedish Energy Policy Commission, with the task to create a long-term framework for national energy policy (SOU 2017:2: 3). The task was set in three stages where the energy commission would first gather data, then analyse obstacles and opportunities in the energy system, and finally present a report to the Swedish parliament with suggestions on how to proceed (SOU 2017:2: 11). The data reports from all involved organisations were then summarized as the governmental official enquiry SOU 2017:2. According to (SOU 2017:2: 14), more efficient energy use and streamlined energy supply, is the prerequisite for Sweden to transition towards a sustainable energy system. The growth of the Swedish population and the increased possession of electrical appliances, indicate that electricity consumption will increase in the future. To combat this development, Sweden must adapt a robust electricity system with the ability to ensure distribution security for customers 24 hours a day, with a low environmental impact as well as high levels of production capacity. This will hopefully create a stable Nordic electricity market with increased investments and job opportunities (SOU 2017:2: 16). One of the central aspects of the enquiry is to present some key themes regarding the future of the Swedish energy system. These themes refer to how development of the energy system will play out after the year 2025 and highlights issues and opportunities that are on the path to secure a positive socioeconomical growth within the energy sector (SOU 2017:2: 171). There are four different themes that are essential in describing the future of the Swedish energy system. According to SOU 2017:2 (2017: 171) the themes were agreed upon by several administrative agencies, organizations and academia to create a coherent and accepted view of where the nation is heading. However, these are still projections, so taking them at face value is not recommended. The first theme describes the potential future of energy and electricity use. It is believed that industrial electricity use will increase from 50 TWh to around 54 TWh annually by the year 2030, even though energy efficient practices such as carbon capture and storage are implemented (SOU 2017:2: 176-178). It is also believed that electricity use in the residential and service sector will increase slightly, from 70 TWh to 71 TWh annually by the year 2030 (SOU 2017:2: 179). Why the increase is not steeper, is motivated by the decrease of electricity use in heating although electricity use will increase in general. It is believed that total energy use in the transport sector will decrease to 78 TWh annually by the year 2030, due to energy efficiency development of the fossil fuel using vehicle fleet (SOU 2017:2: 181). However, electricity use is expected to increase after 2030 due to the electrification of the vehicle fleet. According to SOU 2017:2 (2017: 182), the electricity use within the transport sector is as of 2017 only 3 TWh, but is expected to increase to 8 TWh after 2030.

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The second theme is meant to describe how electricity production will look in the future. However, this section is not very well explained and filled with ambiguous statements about how different investment options in the energy sector will create different outcomes (SOU 2017:2: 187). According to the enquiry (SOU 2017:2: 187), this is because the future production of electricity is influenced by numeral factors, such as supply, demand, prices, taxes, carbon dioxide taxes, technology development, environmental factors, transmission capacity and public opinion. Nevertheless, the most viable outcome when looking at the current development, is the expansion of solar and wind power. It is believed that electricity production from wind power will increase from about 18 TWh to 60-70 TWh by the year 2050 (SOU 2017:2: 187, 209). For this to be possible, the transmission network and the distribution networks need to be renovated and expanded to increase available capacity. Solar power is also included in this approach, as wind and solar power complement each other when it comes to power storage. Hydro and nuclear power on the other hand have limited expansion potential even if they currently are the most important energy sources in Sweden. The third theme explains the situation regarding electric networks. The future of these networks largely depends on how electricity will be used, how much can be produced and how much can be stored and imported from the neighbouring countries (SOU 2017:2: 211-212). Much emphasis is put on distribution security since even a slight disruption in distribution can cause widespread damage to infrastructure that is highly dependent on electrical systems. As mentioned earlier, Svenska Kraftnät oversees the maintenance and expansion of the Swedish transmission network while other companies and organizations own the regional and local distribution networks. According to Svenska Kraftnät, the decline of nuclear power and the closing of nuclear reactors in Sweden, will affect the security of supply and put a strain on the electricity power system. However, they also state that capacity variations can be handled at the moment and that the real issue will occur when more nuclear reactors are shut down (SOU 2017:2: 210). According to the enquiry (SOU 2017:2: 217), both the transmission network and distribution networks are currently undergoing extensive maintenance and reinvention to a more flexible system, as much of the network infrastructure is 40 to 50 years old. Although this plan sounds reassuring, there is no actual strategy for the overall maintenance and who is responsible for the implementation of a new flexible system (SOU 2017:2: 210).

The last theme tries to contextualise the electricity market, and the drive towards an integrated European electricity market. According to the enquiry (SOU 2017:2: 227), the general opinion of the electricity market after the reform in the 1990’s, is that it currently works well considering the transition towards the sustainable energy system. However, there exist some concerns how well the market will adapt in the future as it becomes more interregional. According to the enquiry (SOU 2017:2: 227), there is a projection that Sweden might have an excess of electricity production, rather than a deficit due to the planned expansion of wind power. However, the scenario is unpredictable, due to nuclear power in Sweden becoming disenfranchised, neglected and less investor friendly. Furthermore, there are questions

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surrounding how the EU will regulate the cooperative electricity market, which could cause rapid changes in how the Swedish market operates.

5.1.3 Key points in Proposition 2017/18:228 “Energipolitikens inriktning” The proposition 2017/18:228 was sent by the government to the parliament for review regarding the framework of energy policy. The government proposed that the three pillars of energy policy - security of supply, competitiveness and ecological sustainability, be established as general objectives for energy policy (Prop 2017/18:228: 1). With the framework agreement adopted in 2017 and later to be used as the basis for SOU 2017:2, this proposition is the most recent document regarding energy policy which was sent to the parliament for re-evaluation. Firstly, the government proposed that Swedish energy policy be based on the same three pillars as in the EU, namely ecological sustainability, competitiveness and security of supply. The purpose is to create the necessary conditions for efficient and sustainable energy use, cost- effective Swedish energy supply with low negative environmental impact and facilitate the transition to an ecologically sustainable society (Prop 2017/18:228: 15). The reason for this governmental proposal is the lack of a stable legislative position regarding energy policy which needs unity and cooperation to be viable as a framework. Although most of the referral bodies agreed with the proposal, there were some concerns from The Swedish University of Agricultural sciences and The Swedish National Institute of Economic Research regarding how the proposal; confuses climate policy and energy policy and disregards existing means of control to reduce climate impact (Prop 2017/18:228: 16). This contradicts the purpose as it raises the cost of implementing climate policy and creates confusion in how the renewable energy sources makes the electricity system more robust as well as strengthens security of distribution. Secondly, the government proposed that the 100 per cent renewable electricity production by the year 2040 remain a goal, not a deadline for ending the production of nuclear power. The motivation behind the proposal was that renewable energy implementation is unpredictable, as there does not exist a timeline for how long it will take to develop a robust energy system that can handle future energy demands (Prop 2017/18:228: 18-19). The majority of the referral bodies agreed with this proposal as well, but there were some organizations that claimed the goal could be achieved before 2040, and some organizations which argued that the energy system at the moment cannot sustain 100 per cent renewable energy due to insufficient infrastructure and technological development. Furthermore, although the Sweden has good prospects of expanded renewable energy production, there are concerns regarding power distribution (Prop 2017/18:228: 19). Thirdly, the government proposed 50 per cent more efficient energy consumption by 2030 compared to 2005, expressed in terms of energy supply in relation to gross domestic product.

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The proposal was motivated by the existence of unrealized potential of energy efficiency within the Swedish energy market (Prop 2017/18:228: 20). A long-term plan that incorporates the energy efficiency goal will also benefit international climate goals. Responses from the referral bodies were mixed. Most were positive to incorporating gross domestic product to energy consumption and measuring it as energy supply. However, there were some questions if this would reduce the importance of looking at emissions as the main issue of energy efficiency. The proposal also includes evaluation of how the points brought up in the framework agreement has worked so far, as judged by the Swedish government. For the sake of clarity, the most relevant points to the original framework will be presented, and in a shortened version. These are:

• The conditions for electricity production o The Government's assessment: Development of renewable energy must continue to expand. The prospects for renewable electricity production in Sweden are considered good and can in the future become a reliable export commodity. o Responses from referral bodies: The majority agrees. However, some organisations state that the transition to a larger share of renewable electricity production be controlled by market interest, as not to lower the market prices of other energy sources (Prop 2017/18:228: 22). Furthermore, the closing of four nuclear reactor within the span of five years has already changed the dynamics of distribution security, which means that further drastic measures could put the system out of balance. • The need for increased power generation from renewable energy sources o The Government's assessment: Power output can be increased through efficient use of hydropower and bioenergy. A competitive district heating sector and efficient use of electricity in heating are prerequisites to cope with the future electricity and heat supply and demand. o Responses from referral bodies: Most responses refer to a lack of data in how a more competitive district heating sector could be achieved. There are concerns about politics interfering and lowering market prices, which might reduce investments in combined heat and power, biofuels and energy efficiency (Prop 2017/18:228: 29). Furthermore, favoriting certain energy sources by using tax breaks or subsidization e.g. lowering taxes for the use of hydropower drives a gap in the electricity market. • The need for more efficient use of energy o The Government’s assessment: Efficient use of electricity and other forms of energy is positive for both the residential and industrial sector as well as the overall energy system. The streamlining of power output is of special importance as to handle future electricity demands.

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o Responses from referral bodies: The majority agrees. The electrification of the vehicle fleet and residential apparatuses will increase electricity use and put pressure on transmission capacity. Households should be incentivised to use district heating rather than heating by electricity (Prop 2017/18:228: 33). • The need for improved transmission capacity o The Government's assessment: Transmission capacity domestically and between Sweden and neighbouring countries must increase. o Responses from referral bodies: The majority agrees, but with certain conditions. There seems to be a consensus that the bottlenecks within the country need to be erased, as to create better distribution security from the north to the south (Prop 2017/18:228: 34). However, this also requires the abolition of the four electricity regions established in 2011, which some organisations consider the unreasonable without a strategy. • The regulation of electricity networks o The Government's assessment: Regulations regarding electricity networks must be developed to ensure reasonable tariffs for customers. These regulations must be constantly updated to ensure that the expansion of the network infrastructure has the necessary means for cost-effective construction. o Responses from referral bodies: The responses are mixed regarding how these regulations would be implemented. Although most agree that regulations are necessary, more research needs to be done in how big these tariffs would need to be (Prop 2017/18:228: 37). • Opportunities for electricity network owners o The Government's assessment: Network owners might need more authority to take full advantage of new technology such as smart grids and energy storage, to increase demand flexibility of the electrical system. Furthermore, the responsibility of both distribution network owners and Svenska Kraftnät need to be clarified. o Responses from referral bodies: This being a future issue, the referral responses caution that the role of network owners regarding new technology is still being developed. However, when improved energy storage is implemented, the consensus is that the cost be put on the electricity producers, not the network owners (Prop 2017/18:228: 39). • The electricity market model o The Government's assessment: There is currently no reason to change the existing electricity market model which Sweden and the Nordic countries use, where electricity producers get paid for the electricity they sell. However, in time a broad discussion about the future market design should be had. o Responses from referral bodies: The majority of the referral bodies agree with this assessment. It would be senseless to change the model in the short term, as

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the change towards larger shares renewable energy production is still being planned. However, this will eventually need to be discussed, as the current market model is not equipped to handle renewable electricity production on a bigger scale (Prop 2017/18:228: 42). • The need for system services o The Government's assessment: Svenska Kraftnät is responsible for analysing the need for system services and to propose changes to the regulations if needed. System services in this regard being functions that keep the electrical power system in balance. o Responses from referral bodies: There is a notion among the referral bodies that future technological development has not been given enough attention in past reports, and that the analysis of system services have not been adequately explained (Prop 2017/18:228: 45). • The importance of active electricity customers and demand flexibility o The Government's assessment: There needs to be a framework for well- functioning demand flexibility so that customers more easily participate in the electricity market. o Responses from referral bodies: There is a split among the referral bodies, where some argue that it is good for customers to have a larger arrangement of choices, while others argue that customers would rather choose distribution security over demand flexibility.

5.1.4 Summary of key points The Swedish government in these policy documents, is portrayed as rather indifferent towards anything that does not concern the European climate and energy vison. There are several points taken up in these documents that are of grave concern but are described as manageable and being somewhat downplayed. In proposition (Prop 2017/18:228), the Swedish government’s position comes off narratively optimistic to some of the assessments, as the referral bodies often have a completely different view on the topics. Nonetheless, there seems to be a good grasp of the current energy system and its technical aspects, even though the future projections are a bit unrefined data-wise.

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6. AN INSIGHT INTO THE REGIONAL PERSPECTIVE

As mentioned in chapter 2, the reason for choosing the two cases located in the southern half of Sweden, is because of the transmission network and the lack of electric capacity both areas share. However, the situation is a bit more complicated than meets the eye. As various policies have stated, the electricity consumption is likely to increase in the near future due to the electrification of the vehicle fleet and other machines. This means that more electricity must be transported from the north where the majority of Swedish electricity production resides, to meet electricity demand in the south. This is a problem for two reasons. Firstly, the transmission network in Sweden is outdated and is already experiencing capacity problems in more urbanised regions such as Stockholm county and Scania county (Ellevio 2019). Secondly, the nuclear reactors located in the southern parts of Sweden are being shut down for economic reasons, which is straining the transmission network even further. According to a recent news article published by Dagens Nyheter (Fröberg 2020) this issue has been known for over a decade, even before Sweden was divided into four different electricity regions. Promises were made in 2011 by Svenska Kraftnät, which are responsible for the transmission network, that a transmission line from the north to the south called “sydvästralänken” would be constructed to alleviate electricity shortages in Scania county by 2014 (Fröberg 2020). However, nine years have passed and nothing has been done. According to the Swedish Agency for Economic and Regional Growth (Tillväxtverket 2020: 15) the insufficient transmission capacity could threaten the jobs of 3000 to 19 000 people in Scania county and 12 000 to 70 000 jobs in the eastern part of Sweden by the year 2040. As mentioned in the previous chapters, these issues are known on a national and international level, which is why it is interesting to see how these policies and discussions are adapted regionally. Since the Swedish government has tasked the administrative boards of every county to lead, coordinate and promote the climate work (Länsstyrelsen i Stockholms län 2020: 12; Prop 2017/18:228: 55), it is useful to look at how the climate and energy strategies of both counties address the issues and adapt the recommendations set in both domestic and international energy policy.

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6.1 Case 1: Stockholm county

Figure 6: Positional map of Stockholm county. Source: TUTS 2011a.

6.1.1 About Stockholm county

Stockholm county is one of Europe’s fastest growing regions with a population of 2 377 000 and an annual increase of approximately 30 000 residents (Statistiska centralbyrån 2019b; Stockholm stad 2018: 11). As can be seen in Figure 6, the county is situated on the eastern coast. Although being small and densely packed area-wise, the region has a myriad of different landscapes ranging from forests, farmlands, city landscapes and archipelagos (Länsstyrelsen i Stockholms län 2020: 21). As of 2011, Stockholm county is a part of energy region SE3, which similarly to Scania county suffers from transmission capacity shortages. The county has 26 administrative bodies or municipalities, one of which is the capital of Sweden, Stockholm city. The city boasts a pretty impressive track-record of sustainable measures implemented in the

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past decade, earning them the title of “first European environmental capital” in 2010 (Stockholm stad 2019). As can be seen in Figure 7, the total energy supply in Stockholm county for 2017 was 47791 GWh and the total energy use was 48043 GWh. The county’s electricity is mostly imported, making up 44 per cent of their energy supply of which the majority is consumed by households and other service-related sectors. According to Länsstyrelsen i Stockholms län (2020:32), the rest of the energy supply is converted into heat of which 25 per cent was produced from renewable energy sources, and 31 per cent was produced from fossil fuels. However, it is important to note that these production percentages can be misleading as Stockholm county does not produce much of its energy supply.

Figure 7: Stockholm energy supply and use 2017. Source: Länsstyrelsen i Stockholms län 2020.

Based on the national guidelines proposed in 2016, Stockholm county has changed their regional strategy to incorporate climate and energy assessment in the early stages of the planning process, making it easier to comply with the environmental goals agreed upon within the EU (Länsstyrelsen i Stockholms län 2020: 19; Stockholm stad 2019). Furthermore, the guidelines suggested expanding the education of climate related topics, to create a natural

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transition in planning practice to incorporate similar ideas. Hence the strategy discusses which challenges are currently present and points out opportunities that can rectify the situation.

6.1.2 Climate and energy strategy for Stockholm county The introduction to the climate and energy strategy for Stockholm county 2020 – 2045, is written in an odd way, as it states that the county has achieved its climate and energy goals, with a disclaimer pointing towards January 2045 (Länsstyrelsen i Stockholms län 2020: 4). At first glance it might be confusing, as the strategy does not state which goals are discussed or why this is even mentioned, but presumably it is for motivational support.

Moving on, the purpose of the strategy is to support regional actors in achieving net zero emissions by the year 2045. It consists of three parts: a situational analysis of current events, categorization of priority areas and options for implementation. The strategy also expands upon the challenges the county faces and proposes models of cooperative work in the county. It is made clear early on that this strategy will only be effective if a diligent cooperation is established between institutions, organizations and actors (Länsstyrelsen i Stockholms län 2020: 6). The situational analysis shows that there are some domestic energy and climate challenges that will become problematic for Stockholm county if nothing is done to combat them in the near future. In Sweden the temperature has already increased by 1,7 degrees during the past 100 years and is believed to increase further in accordance to the rise of global temperatures (Länsstyrelsen i Stockholms län 2020: 14-15). The temperature change will affect seasonal length and consequently put a strain on societal structures due to drought, insufficiency in water recourses and a higher risk of flooding. Although shorter winters would benefit the energy system as electricity and heat consumption would drop, weather irregularities would still cause imbalances in energy conversion (Länsstyrelsen i Stockholms län 2020: 14-15). In Stockholm county, the energy and climate goals are based upon the national goals set in the framework agreement, and are written as follows (Länsstyrelsen i Stockholms län 2020: 18): • Achieve a net zero of greenhouse gas emissions by the year 2045. • Reduce emissions by 70 per cent in the transport sector by 2030 compared to 2010. • 50 per cent more efficient energy consumption by 2030 compared to 2005. • 50 per cent reduction in direct and indirect per capita emissions from consumption by 2030 compared to 2014. • 100 per cent of electricity production shall be from renewable energy sources by 2040. Although Stockholm county has reduced its climate-affecting emissions by 26 per cent since 1990’s, the county needs to increase the rate of which the emissions are reduced annually, if they are to achieve the zero-emission goal for the year 2045. Environmental factors are the key focus, specifically factors that either have the potential for a structural overhaul or generate the

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most emissions. From a territorial point of view, the biggest emission problems are generally the transport and the energy sectors. In Stockholm county the factors that fit the criteria are transportation, electricity generation and distribution, infrastructure and consumption (Länsstyrelsen i Stockholms län 2020: 8). To start off, transport sector is currently responsible for 50 per cent of the geographical emissions produced in Stockholm county, of which personal vehicles are the main cause (Länsstyrelsen i Stockholms län 2020: 27). Although the sector has reduced the amount of emissions created in the past couple of decades due technological innovation in the car industry, the progress has stagnated as the number of vehicles have also increased. The increased vehicle fleet is largely the result of intensified trade and the transporting of goods via trucks and other heavy vehicles. To reduce emissions by 70 per cent in the transport sector by 2030 is especially troublesome as it is difficult to propose radical change of the transport sector when it requires large economic investments in the infrastructure, which in itself generates emissions (Länsstyrelsen i Stockholms län 2020: 27). To effectively combat the problem, the strategy suggests that three different work areas be developed simultaneously (Länsstyrelsen i Stockholms län 2020: 26): • Increase transport efficiency • Increase the number of energy efficient vehicles that do not use fossil fuels • Create better opportunities to utilize renewable fuels

To increase transport efficiency requires several fundamental changes in how and when vehicles should be used. The strategy suggests implementing economic incentives to change behavioral patterns to reduce the number of trips taken for work, leisure and other forms of travel that require motorized vehicles (Länsstyrelsen i Stockholms län 2020: 27). This is especially relevant to the discussion of travel via air, as Arlanda airport within Stockholm county is planned for expansion, thereby increasing air traffic and generated emissions (Länsstyrelsen i Stockholms län 2020: 30). Furthermore, promoting the use vehicles that do not use fossil fuels will also play a role in this endeavor. This requires that the infrastructure for both electric and biofueled vehicles to be expanded, thereby enabling widespread use. However, according to the strategy (Länsstyrelsen i Stockholms län 2020: 30), the current distribution network does not have the capacity to sustain such widespread use, which means that even if the transport sector were to be modernized the system as a whole would not work. This is not to say that technological innovation and appliance does not play a role in the reduction of emissions, as more efficient modes of transportation can fundamentally change how the logistics of trade and travel both within and across borders is operated in the future. Nevertheless, the strategy takes the position that technology alone will not solve the issue, since transportation powered by electricity and biogas is still a relatively new concept and largely dependent on individual preference and economic viability (Länsstyrelsen i Stockholms län 2020: 28). With the vehicle fleet projected to become even larger, it is still essential for Stockholm county to promote the use of these types of vehicles although the infrastructure is

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not compatible. Problems such as congestion are still prevalent in the county’s urban landscapes and will become even more problematic if the share of electric and biofuel vehicles in the vehicle fleet remain the same. The second point dives into electricity supply and use. “The energy sector has a decisive role for us to successively achieve the transformation to a climate-neutral society” (Länsstyrelsen i Stockholms län 2020: 31). The statement clings to the portrayal that climate and energy questions are interconnected, be it through problems or solutions. However, the strategy suggests that there exists a lack of knowledge and cooperation within the energy sector, which creates uncertainty among planners and policymakers, especially regarding the future development of the energy system (Länsstyrelsen i Stockholms län 2020: 31). In Stockholm County this uncertainty also applies to the question of distribution network capacity, electricity and heat supply and increased energy consumption, since the current energy system in Stockholm county is on the verge of becoming overstrained in transitioning towards renewable energy (Länsstyrelsen i Stockholms län 2020: 32-33). The large amount of imported electricity arguably makes the county vulnerable to fluctuations in the distribution network as well as dependent on the electricity production in other counties. However, Stockholm county is not alone in this dilemma as the whole energy system is struggling to cope with the move towards decentralized regional production and increased energy demands. The dated electricity network has put a strain on electricity supply as the transmission network capacity is already showing signs of failing to adequately convert energy to the distribution network. The problematic situation is expected to become even worse as there are renewal plans for the transmission network, which will limit the energy supply in the whole region during the 2020s (Länsstyrelsen i Stockholms län 2020: 33). Furthermore, the limitation will hinder any plans of expansion of the network, which makes infrastructural growth, electrification of transport and other energy draining sectors a major concern for Stockholm county. Although these are serious problems, they have not yet been classified as a national concern, according to the strategy (Länsstyrelsen i Stockholms län 2020: 33). Hence, there is a need for increased localized electricity production within the region. Currently, most of the produced electricity in Stockholm county comes from CHP plants, which also produce district heating. According to the strategy (Länsstyrelsen i Stockholms län 2020: 33), there are opportunities to expand the industry, but it largely depends on market evaluations which currently regards CHP as unprofitable. The situation regarding wind power is not good either, as its production as of 2017 is around 165 GWh with limited development potential, due to high land appropriation costs and a lacking planning framework (Länsstyrelsen i Stockholms län 2020: 33). Although solar power production is limited at the moment, it shows great potential for future implementation on rooftops and other solar radiated locations, as production stability and cost have greatly improved during the past decade. For this to be achieved however, there needs to be more cooperation between institutions, organisations and actors that have a vested interest in the development of the energy sector. There currently does not exist any formal agreements within the county that guarantees electricity production and distribution safety without being

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subjected to market influence, which means that there does not exist any concrete leadership among the involved actors (Länsstyrelsen i Stockholms län 2020: 35). The third area of development regards urban planning and implementation. Unfortunately how infrastructural development can help in achieving the regional goals is not explained in detail, as Swedish municipalities have the final say over the physical planning and these plans are mainly discussed in the regional development plan called “RUFS 2050” (Länsstyrelsen i Stockholms län 2020: 38). Although the strategy endorses increased cooperation between regional and local actors regarding the planning, it does not mention which actors are involved and does not specify a framework how this could be done. However, the strategy lists some strategic planning difficulties Stockholm county faces in terms of environmental degradation (Länsstyrelsen i Stockholms län 2020: 39-40). Excluding the shortage of electricity as result of problems with distribution network capacity, emissions released in the construction process due to unsustainable practices within large infrastructural developments seem to be one of the biggest issues. Half a million new homes are planned to be built within Stockholm county in the next 30 years, which will be environmental problem if construction methods stay the same (Länsstyrelsen i Stockholms län 2020: 40). Furthermore, Stockholm city and its surrounding area have many old properties with poor energy efficiency that need to be renovated to modern standards but are blocked by property laws and ownership disputes. Highly restrictive landownership laws often force vital industries from being constructed closer to urban areas which directly affects transportation lengths and generated emissions (Länsstyrelsen i Stockholms län 2020: 40). This issue is probably not exclusive to Stockholm city, which makes it remarkable that this issue is not brought up anywhere else. Lastly, there are the emissions caused by unsustainable consumption of imported and exported goods. More specifically how they are transported, which is mostly by sea or air, making it a cross-border issue. According to the strategy (Länsstyrelsen i Stockholms län 2020: 41), 65 per cent of all emissions generated from Swedish consumption is generated abroad as a result of import and export. As mentioned earlier, the trading of goods has intensified due to economic development and faster transport, which has made it easier for actors, organizations and institutions to purchase goods and services by the millions. According to the strategy (Länsstyrelsen i Stockholms län 2020: 42), emissions created by households are the biggest concern, as they are consistently one of the biggest producers of greenhouse gas emissions without any direct regulatory oversight. Thrown out waste generate around two million tons of carbon dioxide annually, which is around 3 per cent of Sweden’s generated emissions. The strategy implies that one way to handle the issue would be to implement regional and municipal endorsed behavioral change in consumption patterns. By setting energy and climate requirements in the procurement of goods and services, the municipalities can stimulate development of environmentally friendly technology and reduce the climate impact that consumption in the county gives rise to (Länsstyrelsen i Stockholms län 2020: 43).

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6.2 Case 2: Scania county

Figure 8: Positional map of Scania county. Source: TUTS 2011b.

6.2.1 About Scania county

Scania county is the most southern county in Sweden, as can be seen in Figure 8. The county is densely packed over an area of 10 968 km2 and has a population around 1 377 827 as of 2019, with most citizens living in the urban areas (Statistiska centralbyrån 2019c). The county is divided into 33 municipalities of which Malmö is the largest population-wise and is considered the regional administrative centre. Scania county lies in energy region SE4, ergo furthest from most electricity production. Although energy consumption is lower than the national average, Scania county still consumes more electricity than is produced locally (Region Skåne 2014: 13).

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As can be seen in Figure 9, the total energy supply in Scania county for 2015 was 37 000 GWh and the energy use was 35 900 GWh. Although there exist newer data regarding energy supply and use in Scania county, it deviates from the rest of the regional strategy and the changes are relatively small. Comparably to Stockholm county, Scania is highly dependent on the import of electricity, as the production capacity from the two main energy sources, namely wind power and combined heat and power, barely generate enough electricity to sustain public services. According to Länsstyrelsen i Skåne län (2018: 28) 42 per cent of the total energy supply was produced from renewable energy sources, which as mentioned earlier is misleading, since the production within the county only stands for a fraction of the total energy supply.

Figure 9: Energy supply and use for Scania county 2015. Source: Länsstyrelsen i Skåne län 2018.

Scania county’s climate and energy strategy was published in 2018, and functions as extension of Scania county’s development strategy called The open Skåne 2030 (Region Skåne 2014; Länsstyrelsen i Skåne län 2018: 5), which already established large parts of the developmental goals that the county strives for. However, according to the regional development plan published in 2014, it was predicted that the county would not reach the national climate goals set for the year 2020 (Region Skåne 2014: 13). Although this issue is not elaborated upon in

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the strategy, the language insinuates a more urgent tone regarding the problems the county faces.

6.2.2 Climate and energy strategy for Scania county The climate and energy strategy for Scania county 2018 – 2030 was jointly developed by the Administrative Board of Scania county, Region Skåne and Klimatsamverkan Skåne. The cooperation already started in 2010 with the forming of Klimatsamverkan Skåne which was to serve as a platform for climate and energy questions as well as create a dialogue between regional and local organizations within the county (Länsstyrelsen i Skåne län 2018: 5). Similarly to the climate and energy strategy for Stockholm county, the purpose of the climate and energy strategy for Scania county is to abide by the national climate and energy policy to help decrease greenhouse gas emissions by the year 2045 (Länsstyrelsen i Skåne län 2018: 5- 7). Scania county also has specific regional climate goals that are based on current developmental areas. • Goal for greenhouse gas emissions o Greenhouse gas emissions in Scania county must be at least 80 per cent lower than in 1990. • Goal for greenhouse gas emission generated from consumption o Emissions of greenhouse gases from consumption in Scania county shall not exceed 5 tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalents per person annually. • Goal for efficient energy use and renewable energy o Energy use in Scania county must be at least 20 per cent lower than in 2005 and consist of at least 80 per cent renewable energy. • Goal for a sustainable transport system o The proportion of journeys made by bicycle or on foot must be at least 30 per cent and the proportion of journeys made by public transport must be at least 28 per cent of the total number of journeys in Scania county. o Emissions of greenhouse gases from transport in Scania county must be at least 70 per cent lower than in 2010.

Every climate goal is explained in accordance to the current situation, problem areas and potential strategic solutions for several regional organizations to apply. Thus, the strategy is a guide for relevant parties to achieve the best available outcome. To decrease the greenhouse gas emissions by 80 per cent compared to the 1990’s, there are several areas that need to be addressed. Although greenhouse gas emissions have decreased 31 per cent since the 1990’s thereby achieving the initial goal for 2020, the population is expected to increase within the county, making it increasingly difficult to rely on current means of control to decrease it even further (Länsstyrelsen i Skåne län 2018: 18). The strategy suggest

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that the greenhouse gas emissions generated within energy supply, industry and transport are the main problem areas, of which the biggest challenge is the transition to fossil fuel-free transport. Like the rest of the country, fossil fuels used for district heating has been replaced with more sustainable fuels such as biogas and regional thermal energy. Although the change has reduced the emissions produced in the process, it has also increased the amount of electricity used for the system to function which affects the energy supply. The second issue, namely industrial production, stands for about a third of the emissions created in the county. The industrial sector is currently experiencing a similar change towards renewable energy sources and sustainable practices, but in certain branches generated emissions are expected to increase (Länsstyrelsen i Skåne län 2018: 19). The third problem is the transport sector, which also stands for a third of the emissions produced in the county.

“A large part of the potential for emission reductions lies in more fuel-efficient vehicles and an increased degree of electrification, which at the same time reduces energy use in the transport sector through increased energy efficiency. Another important part is increased production and use of biogas and other renewable fuels to replace petrol and diesel in existing vehicles.” (Länsstyrelsen i Skåne län 2018: 11)

Emissions generated from transports and other machinery has only decreased by 9 per cent since the 1990’s, with heavy transports actually generating more emissions as of 2015 (Länsstyrelsen i Skåne län 2018: 20). Other climate related emissions are produced in agriculture, the retention of farm animals, the use of solvents in housing projects as well as unsustainable practices in waste management (Länsstyrelsen i Skåne län 2018: 20-22). The second goal of keeping greenhouse gas emissions from exceeding 5 tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalents per person annually by 2030, is based upon calculations of nationally generated emissions as perceived from a geographic and consumer perspective. The reasons for the measurements being done on a national level is because of the lack of available data on a regional level, as well as the methodology used to calculate the import and export of various products. According to the strategy (Länsstyrelsen i Skåne län 2018: 24-25), emissions created from Swedish consumption have during the past two decades decreased domestically, generating around 10,7 tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalents per person as of 2015. The emissions generated from consumption is divided into both private consumption and public consumption, of which the private stand for about 64 per cent of emissions and the public for about 36 per cent of emissions. Within the private sphere, emissions are mainly generated from the consumption of food products, travel and upkeep of the household, while the public generation of emissions mainly comes from public funded operations such as schools, hospitals and investments in societal upkeep (Länsstyrelsen i Skåne län 2018: 25). Although internal emissions have decreased, emissions during the same period have increased by 50 per cent internationally as the result of increased transportation of goods between countries, which Sweden undoubtably is a part of. According to the strategy (Länsstyrelsen i Skåne län 2018: 25), due to Scania county being a densely inhabited region compared to other Swedish counties, the generation of carbon dioxide equivalents per person should be a bit lower than the average.

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However, to reach the regional goal for 2030 some changes need to be made in current consumption behaviour. It is suggested that the most important factor to achieve the goal is a change in individual consumption behaviour, especially in how people choose to travel. The strategy goes as far as promoting “lifestyle coaching” as a necessity if Scania county is to achieve an adequate change in consumption behaviour (Länsstyrelsen i Skåne län 2018: 25). Unfortunately, the strategy does not go into further detail in how this could be achieved or how it could be measured on a regional level. The third goal regards energy efficient use by lowering of energy use in Scania county by at least 20 per cent compared to 2005, which share should consist of at least 80 per cent from renewable energy sources. According to Länsstyrelsen i Skåne län (2018: 10) there are good opportunities to almost completely phase out the use of fossil fuels from large parts of the Scanian industry and housing, by making households more energy efficient and using renewable energy sources. Renewable electricity production in Scania county can be expanded through offshore wind power, but also increased use of renewable fuels through local self- produced solar power. Although new wind parks have not been constructed in over a decade, the reduced costs of constructing offshore wind parks could become a future interest if Scania county is to combat the regional electricity import (Länsstyrelsen i Skåne län 2018: 38). The increase of renewable electricity production in Scania county, would also contribute to emission reductions in the Nordic electricity system and a stronger electricity balance as well as by extension, a lower electricity price (Länsstyrelsen i Skåne län 2018: 10). The strategy also suggests that energy use in Scania county will naturally decline, similarly to the domestic trend. The fourth goal is to achieve a sustainable transport system, by increasing the use of bicycles and public transports when travelling in Scania county, as well as reduce the amount of emissions generated by transports. The first part is to be achieved by increasing the opportunity for people to use bikes and public transports when travelling, by investing in the necessary infrastructure. Unfortunately, the strategy does not elaborate further upon this challenge, as it is reviewed in another report called “Strategi för ett hållbart transportsystem 2050”, which is outside the scope of this study (Länsstyrelsen i Skåne län 2018: 32). The second part as already mentioned, regards the transport sector and the goal to reduce generated emissions by 70 per cent by the year 2030. The transport sector stands for 37 per cent of total emissions generated in Scania county as of 2015. (Länsstyrelsen i Skåne län 2018: 34). The majority of which is generated by personal vehicles, as they are the most used means of transportation.

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7. ANALYSIS This chapter presents the themes and sub-themes that were discovered when analysing the literature regarding Nordic and Swedish energy policy and regional strategies.

7.1 Themes The themes and sub-themes gathered in this analysis were extracted from the several text using the filtering model by Healey (1993) and Khakee (2000) presented in chapter 2. The model helped pinpoint statements and motifs in the texts, but the interpretation was ultimately informed by the institutional perspective derived from EGT and energy smart communicative planning theory. Examining the text for a narrative, as explained by Beunen et al (2014: 45), helped in finding the context and the frame of the plan within the discussion of a sustainable energy system. In other words, how the structure of the energy system was portrayed, as well as the aims and visions that could be deduced from each geographical level. The themes for both the context and the frame of the plan were deduced by questioning what is currently being done in the energy sector and what the future plans are. For example, from an institutional perspective all levels adhere to the narrative that transitioning to a sustainable energy system is the rational way forward (Nordic Energy Research 2016: 12; SOU 2017:2: 14). The relevant institutions, organisations and actors have subsequently implemented societal structures such as policies, environmental goals, infrastructural plans, emission taxation and more, to see this vision through. This narrative is arguably clearer on the regional level as the strategies are written in a more practical setting. Economic premise on the other hand was harder to pinpoint, as most of the analysed documents stayed away from discussing any form of transaction or cost-related issue of transitioning to a sustainable energy system. There might be several reason for this issue, but reflecting on the context and how the narrative is constructed in the texts, the lack of information regarding the total cost of restructuring the energy infrastructure on a national scale, could be viewed as a conflict of interest. For example, in Prop 2017/18:228 (2018: 29) there are clear signs of disagreement among referral bodies and the government regarding the cost of adapting society to utilize a larger share of renewable energy. The question then becomes what more economic conflicts can be deduced from the texts and why there are not more discussion about the economic challenges? I found that the discourse and discourse arena varied depending on which level was examined, mainly due to language and different geographical factors. Naturally, the Nordic perspective focused on the larger progress, the regional perspective was more geographically situated, and the national perspective was somewhere in-between. However, by following Khakee’s (2000: 124) description of discourse, the language of the texts and whom the texts were written for, insinuates that although climate and energy questions are intertwined, they are written by and

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for formal institutions that are more focused on environmental awareness rather than energy awareness. Although climate change is a message that most can agree with, the texts are written in a more formal style, which insinuates that these types of documents are written for relevant institutions, organisations and actors with power and legitimacy to change existing structures. When examining the text for communicative qualities, I looked for clarification of difficult subjects and the presentation of that knowledge. I found that the technical aspects of the energy system were explained in good detail, but with a reservation to reveal negative information. Furthermore, I used the configuration of actors and institutions as introduced by Beunen et al. (2014: 79), to interpret how institutions, organisations and actors collaborated within the context of the energy system, and how the information was communicated between all levels. The biggest issue I found within all levels was that solutions to the challenges were not explained as extensively and became even more ambiguous when discussed on a regional level. Thus, the relevant question is why solutions to some challenges are underplayed in the energy sector (Healey 1993: 91). To examine the dynamics of the power relations, I used the configuration of power and knowledge introduced by Beunen et al. (2014: 79). By asking questions such as who has the power to make decisions and who sits on the knowledge regarding the energy sector, made it easier to narrow down where governance exists. On all three levels explored, power and legitimacy are one-sidedly institutional with minimal exposure of public interests. The structure in the texts are all written from a top-down approach, leaving many questions about how the public was involved when for example discussing the prioritised climate and energy goals in both county strategies. However, it does not mean that there was no interest in establishing better cooperation between institutions, organisations and actors, just that the none of the included material included the public point of view. To help visualise the information, these interpretations were synthesised and categorised as themes and sub-themes, which can be seen in Table 4. The themes also became the main talking points in the next section.

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Table 4: Extracted themes in the analysed material

Subject Theme Sub-theme Sub-theme

Context The progress towards The Swedish context Societal structures sustainable energy systems suggests that progress have been established among Nordic countries is is well underway to increase legislative generally portrayed as good. although there are control challenges that need to be overcome. The frame of the The vision is for the Nordic Policies are informed Goals are mainly plan countries to become more by the European established for the integrated with Europe. climate and energy purpose of climate agenda change Economic The cost of implementing Not proved to be Technological premise 100 per cent renewable possible as nuclear innovation costs are energy is not discussed. power still generates not mentioned. 40 per cent of total electricity production. Discourse and The message although The message is mainly The language discourse arena ambiguous, represents for and by institutions changes depending formal interests. and organisations. The on which level is public discourse is not being represented. included. Communicative Opportunities are made Although the current The gravity of qualities clear, solutions remain situation is thoroughly network capacity superficially vague. discussed, some problem is challenges are downplayed. underplayed. Power relations Energy policy and planning Power resides with No framework for are approached as top-down formal institutions and local energy initiatives. organisations. initiatives.

Source: Personal collection

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7.2 Findings

7.2.1 The progress towards sustainable energy systems among Nordic countries is generally portrayed as good. From a Nordic perspective, the progress towards a more sustainable energy system and an extended cooperation between the Nordic countries is seen as well underway. Although being highly ambitious progression-wise, there seems to be a concrete structure in place, that allows representatives from the Nordic countries to discuss on-going processes, their strength and weaknesses which is evident in the formulation of the short-term and long-term goals of NETP 2016 (Nordic Energy Research & International Energy Agency 2016). Both the outline of the goals and the portrayal of the situation indicate that the industries that operate on fossil fuels are structures of the past and should subsequently be phased out (Nordic Energy research 2020: 9-10). Swedish progress is portrayed similarly, as the energy system is considered one of the most sustainable in the world due to its integration of renewable energy sources and progress towards decarbonisation (International Energy Agency 2019: 11). On paper this is a bright endorsement that the country should be proud of, but I argue that the context is more complicated than that. As mentioned earlier, Sweden has since the 1970’s focused on generating energy from nuclear power and hydropower, hence being less dependent on energy generated from coal, gas and other fossil fuels. There are two reasons for this scenario. Firstly, except for some low-grade uranium Sweden does not have large reserves of fossil fuels, which means that the country would have to import large amounts of fossil fuels such as oil and natural gas to be able to utilize a fossil fuel dependent energy system. Secondly, Sweden has many lakes, rivers and other waterways that can be utilized for stable hydropower, which is a great supplement to the flexibility of nuclear power production (Swedish Energy Agency 2020: 7). This means that Sweden’s decision to become more dependent on hydropower and nuclear power during 1970’s arguably came to be as a result of resource availability and cost- effectiveness, rather than sustainable thinking. It also explains why sustainable development as well as climate and energy policies have only recently become institutionally established, considering that the long-term climate and energy policy goals were devised in 2016 (Swedish government 2016). However, this is not to say that there have not been climate and energy policies before 2016, just that it has been underdeveloped and somewhat lacking in direction. I argue that it is fair to say that the institutions and structures established in the past decade such as The Swedish Energy Policy Commission (SOU 2017:2: 3), have been greatly beneficial in recognizing the challenges and opportunities within the Swedish energy system. Furthermore, much emphasis has been put on increasing cooperation between formal institutions, organisations and actors that are connected to the energy sector, as solving the challenges that are present in the energy system cannot not be done by institutions alone. This narrative is also displayed on a regional level, although the context is portrayed a bit differently compared to the previous levels. For example, in the preface of the climate and energy strategy

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for Stockholm county, it is mentioned that Stockholm will be the first county in Sweden to have reached the climate goals, by achieving zero greenhouse gas emissions by the year 2045 (Länsstyrelsen i Stockholms län 2020: 4). This gives off the impression that the parties involved are confident that they will achieve their goals, but it can also be interpreted as blind optimism towards the serious challenges the county faces, especially regarding distribution network system. Scania county on the other hand is not as optimistic, as they clearly state that radical change is needed if they are to reach the climate and energy goals (Region Skåne 2014: 13). The strategies do also show signs of energy smart iterative planning, by mapping out the problem areas and discussing hypothetical solutions (FFS 2016: 28). This could however have been more extensively described, as county administrative boards are responsible for gathering and creating a discourse arena for climate and energy discussions (Länsstyrelsen i Stockholms län 2020: 12).

7.2.2 The goal is for the Nordic countries to become more integrated with Europe, in both vision and practice. The way the vision is formulated in the empirical material, it is clear that Nordic collaboration is being influenced by the European climate agenda. The Nordic goal is for all Nordic countries to become more integrated with the European energy system, by improving network connections to increase trade on the European energy market (Nordic Energy Research 2016: 12). By integrating Nordic energy systems and increasing cooperation regarding climate and energy questions, it becomes easier to direct the countries to adapt strategies towards the real vision, which is to make the Nordic countries carbon free by the year 2050 (Nordic Energy Research 2020: 4). In other words, the strategic aspects of the Nordic vision are that the energy systems are the key to reaching the climate vision. This theme is reproduced on a Swedish level, as the challenges and opportunities are essentially energy related and done for the purpose of environmental sustainability. Although both climate and energy are intrinsically intertwined when discussed in the texts, they often appear to be discussed from a climate perspective. This is not to say that striving for environmental sustainability and highlighting the problems of climate change are irrelevant, just that undivided attention can take away from the importance of energy related problems that exist within Sweden. This is exemplified in the proposition of energy political focus (Prop 2017/18:228: 16) by some of the referral bodies that insinuate that the Swedish government in their pursuit of environmental sustainability, neglect or underplay energy challenges such as the aging transmission network. Another aspect to this theme is that whenever the discussion mentions the unsustainable or energy generated from fossil fuels, it seldom goes into detail about what they are currently used for in the Swedish energy system. Although the share of renewable energy sources has increased, there are still uses for fossil fuels in Swedish society, especially within the transport sector (SOU 2017:2: 77). The question is not whether fossil fuels are good or bad, as it is well understood by this point, rather that the perspective becomes widely one-sided if both sides are not equally

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described. For example, although hydropower is presented as the most important energy source in Sweden, the texts are ambiguous in discussing the feasibility of expanding hydropower in the future, as it would degrade environmental sustainability (SOU 2017:2: 188). Although the information cannot be considered purposefully hidden, one can still argue that a decision was made to avoid presenting renewable energy in a bad light, as it can be perceived as negative towards the vision and established policy. A related problem can be observed in the regional strategies, albeit more ambiguously. The goals in both counties are in large parts influenced by the national climate and energy goals, but they seem less informative about practical application. The available data presented on the regional level do help explain the context of what opportunities and challenges exist within the region, but the solutions seldom reflect upon how they will achieve their goals, as current means of control are described as insufficient by the counties (Länsstyrelsen i Stockholms län 2020: 31; Länsstyrelsen i Skåne län 2018: 18). For example, the reason for both Stockholm and Scania county promoting energy efficient consumption as a goal, is ultimately for the purpose national reduction of generated carbon dioxide equivalents per person, which can only be measured on a national level (Länsstyrelsen i Skåne län 2018: 24). In other words, the counties themselves have no real control over this goal. This is not to say that reducing emissions caused by consumption is a bad idea, only that it stands the risk of overshadowing other energy problems that are more prevalent in the counties. By adapting the international vision and the subsequent national climate and energy goals rather than pursuing more regionally defined goals, makes it harder to find solutions to the problems that exist, especially since both counties have deficiencies in their distribution network capacity.

7.2.3 The cost of implementing 100 per cent renewable energy is not discussed. One of the biggest ambiguities in climate and energy policy is the discussion of the overall cost of transitioning to a system that is completely dependent on renewable sources. Although there exist countries that are completely dependent on energy from renewable energy sources, there does not exist enough data to make accurate projections of a scenario where this type of system would be possible in Sweden. There are a lot of challenges that need to be solved before Sweden can depend on renewable energy sources, the biggest challenges being the overhaul of transmission/distribution network system to remove the bottlenecks between the energy sectors, as well as expanding the renewable energy sources currently utilized to phase out nuclear power (Prop 2017/18:228: 22). What is clear but not extensively discussed in the texts, is that a restructuring of this scale will be immensely time consuming and costly. Deductively, there are a few reasons for the financial aspects not being in the research. Firstly, there currently might not exist enough data to create accurate projections, which means that the statements about expanding the different renewable energy sources are still in their planning infancy.

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Secondly, the missing information can be interpreted as an action to pander towards the renewable narrative, even though it is not economically viable. This mentality arguably fits with the message that nuclear power has become alienated, even though it still is responsible for 40 per cent of the total energy supply (Swedish government 2016: 2; Prop 2017/18:228: 22). However, the Swedish long-term goals being established in the recently adapted framework agreement of 2016, the missing information can also be explained by the lack of time to fully determine the cost.

7.2.4 The message although ambiguous, represents formal interests.

Based on the narrative that; climate change is happening, society must adapt to this new reality and internationally integrated energy systems are the deciding factor in how this change is to be achieved, one would think that ascertaining the discourse would be rather simple. However, as combining many institutions, organisations and actors in the same boat, there is bound to be different discourses that overlap (Stoeglehner et al. 2016: v). On a Nordic level, the language in the reports is written as formal documents, with a subtle agenda to disenfranchise discourses that hinder European interconnectivity. I argue that this is the case, as Swedish organisations do show discontent towards the European model of implementing energy regions (Prop 2017/18:228: 34). Although the issues are well documented (EMIR 2007:02), the disagreement does not seem affect all stakeholders involved as the Swedish government does not assess these energy regions in the same way. In fact, the formal policies and reports on a Swedish level are written in a way that seems indifferent to international intervention and largely enforces European climate and energy directives over domestic interests. Although this can be interpreted as a form of evolutionary governance where institutions and organisations have made the decision to progress past the lucrative aspects of fossil fuels for the betterment of society, it is more likely that the narrative against fossil fuels has become too strong to discursively alter (Beunen et al 2014: 45). For example, the consensus among stakeholders in Sweden is that phasing out of fossil fuels from the energy system is the most rational plan for future sustainability, but at the same time there are many questions about Sweden’s capability to become 100 per cent reliant on renewable energy (Prop 2017/18:228: 29). The uncertainty among stakeholders also increases the ambiguity of the discourse, which makes it hard to distinguish what position institutions, organisations and actors hold regarding the transition towards a sustainable energy system, and which interests are being represented in the decision- making. The same ambiguity is reflected in the regional strategies, although the language is more normative. The strategies were adopted by order of the government and therefore follows the same vision established on a national level. Contrary to the national level, the discourse arena is more easily distinguished in the regional strategies as most of the challenges and opportunities faced in the counties are geographically relatable, and so the discourse is presumably influenced by regional stakeholders. Both Scania and Stockholm county collaborate with several entities to gather climate and energy data relevant to energy sector and

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present them as a guide for regional stakeholders to follow (Länsstyrelsen i Stockholms län 2020: 49; Länsstyrelsen i Skåne län 2018: 5). In essence, this should make it easier to understand which interests are being represented in the counties, were it not for the fact that the public discourse is not represented in these strategies.

7.2.5 Opportunities are made clear, solutions remain superficially vague The communicative qualities in the text is represented by the institutional sharing of information, primarily in the form of challenges and opportunities that are observable on all levels. The technical aspects of the energy system and its capabilities are firmly understood, as well as the opportunities renewable energy sources provide. There is a consensus among researchers and policymakers that wind power has the biggest potential for expansion in Sweden, especially in regions where current electricity production capabilities are limited (Nordic Energy Research 2020: 10; SOU 2017:2: 106). The premise is that wind power in combination with solar and hydropower creates a flexible energy system with good storage capabilities, which in time can phase out nuclear power from the Swedish energy system (SOU 2017:2: 105). But as mentioned earlier, the explanation of how wind power will replace the current production-capability of nuclear power and the drastic effects closing of nuclear reactors have on distribution security remain unexplained. Although most texts mention the current issue of the Swedish transmission and distribution network, the impact on the populace is arguably downplayed and poorly communicated, as the issues have been known since 2007 if not longer (EMIR 2007:02: 7). Furthermore, the texts are defiant to reveal any weaknesses of expanding the share of renewable energy sources, which signifies bad managing of ambiguity as explained by Healey (1993: 91), where key information is either deliberately left out of the discussion or misunderstood to downplay limitations. This notion is perplexing as the target audience, as established in the previous theme, presumably are other institutions who already know of the limitations that each renewable energy source has. Furthermore, it goes against what can be considered energy smart planning, as limitations need to be included to construct a realistic strategy (FFS 2016: 32).

7.2.6 Energy policy and planning are approached as top-down initiatives When interpreting the texts, it becomes clear that all decision-making power and knowledge about the current energy system reside with institutions, organisations and specific actors that have either a political interest or a financial stake in the energy sector (Beunen et al. 2014: 79). It is especially evident in Swedish policy that the transition to a sustainable energy system is to be planned and implemented via a top-down approach. This type of decision-making is not unreasonable considering the financial means it will take to restructure the energy system, but some of the proposed solutions do require institutional intervention and can be questionable

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for a couple of reasons. Many of the opportunities and challenges affect the populace or are the result of actions taken by the populace. For example, both counties examined in this study suggested that there needs to be a behavioural change in how the population consumes energy. Scania county (Länsstyrelsen i Skåne län 2018: 25) goes as far as suggesting “lifestyle coaching” as a reasonable solution to change citizen behaviour. This essentially means that institutions would take an active position in governing how people use energy, which would presumably not sit well with the populace as it infringes upon consumer choice. But as mentioned in a previous theme, the public discourse is not included in the texts, which makes it difficult to establish concrete positions. If we approach the problem from another angle, it can be argued that formal institutions such as the counties have been put in a position with too much responsibility, and are only acting upon policy that has been established higher up the food chain. Both strategies explicitly say that the goals cannot be met without regional organisations cooperating (Länsstyrelsen i Stockholms län 2020: 6; Länsstyrelsen i Skåne län 2018: 14), which insinuates that the counties are aware of their position and what they are able to do. But if this is the case, why does there not exist a framework for regional and local actors help the county with the climate and energy goals.

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8. CONCLUDING DISCUSSION This thesis set out to examine how the transition towards a sustainable energy system is portrayed in Swedish society and gain an understanding why the climate and energy discussion often gets defined by its vagueness. This purpose was explained by answering the related research question. • What are the main drivers of change in the energy discussion on a Nordic, a national and a regional level? • How are narratives and interests represented in climate and energy literature when filtered through Healey’s (1993) and Khakee’s (2000) model? • How are opportunities and challenges discussed, and are the current solutions viable?

It is fair to say that the Swedish energy system is rapidly distancing itself from fossil fuels and moving towards renewable energy sources such as wind and solar power, with the backing of institutional forces. Energy policy has progressed a fair bit in the past five years by establishing long-term climate and energy goals in the framework agreement of 2016 as part of the international drive for sustainability. The subsequent reports and policies have helped contextualise the scenario in which Sweden finds itself, as well as identifying areas that need improvement. There is a clear narrative in the texts that all sectors of society are obligated to help reach the climate and energy goals, as unsustainable practices will be ostracized in policy and strategies moving forward. On all examined levels, there exist determination and opportunity to improve energy efficiency and increase the share of renewable energy in the energy supply. Although this transition is motivated by a more energy efficient society, the main vision is to unify the Nordic countries and reach net zero of carbon emissions by the year 2050 at the latest. This means that active measures need to be taken on a national and a regional level to combat emissions created via industrial production, consumption and transport. Subsequently, structures for increased legislative control and public awareness have been put in place to ensure that institutions, organisations and actors contribute in realizing this vision. This also signifies that formal institutional interests are prioritised over informal interests. However, whilst progress in Sweden is portrayed as well underway with great opportunities to become even less dependent on fossil fuels and generate fewer greenhouse gas emissions, there are several societal issues that need better exposure and practical solutions before the transition can fully become reality. Currently, the projected problems from the aging transmission network is arguably being downplayed although being discussed on all examined levels. There seems to be differences of opinion regarding this topic between formal institutions who push for increased cooperation with the European energy market, and organisations who do not see the issue being fixed before the energy regions are abolished. Furthermore, there are clear indicators that the shutdown of nuclear reactors has already begun to affect distribution security in energy regions SE3 and SE4 as the regional production capacity is lower than total energy use, which leads to high import demands of electricity. The increased demand puts even more strain on the already aging transmission network, which has the potential to affect thousands

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of jobs in Stockholm county and Scania county. The solution to this problem is also not adequately explained. Sweden does have opportunities to increase production capacity of wind power and solar power as well as improve the energy storage of hydropower plants for increased distribution security. But what is conveniently left out of the discussion are the restructuring costs and construction time, which are evidently critical factors in facing the impending production deficiencies in the south. Furthermore, the weaknesses of the renewable energy sources are also not extensively discussed in the texts, which makes it difficult to evaluate how well this solution would be in practice. In this thesis I have realised that while the transition towards a sustainable energy system is a likely scenario in the Swedish context, there are several areas that are underdeveloped but get overshadowed by the positive narrative sustainable development and renewable energy have on the discourse. Another realisation is that climate and energy policy is largely an institutionally governed sector without public influence. This is not to say that institutionally governed planning is bad, in fact the texts do adapt many of the ideas that are considered energy smart. However, it is still relevant to bring up the point that the interaction between institutions and the public is sorely lacking and could reveal further opinions regarding the transition. Nevertheless, the documents chosen in my thesis are only a handful of policies, reports and plans that discuss the topic and therefore only introduce a fraction of the information. However, the information should at least give an overview of the current Swedish energy system and where it is heading. To summarize the main points on how the transition towards a sustainable energy system is portrayed in Swedish society: • Progress is good, but there are still infrastructural issues that need to be resolved domestically. • Energy policy is informed by formal institutional interests and governed by a collaboration of institutions, organisations and actors relevant to the energy sector. • The vagueness in climate and energy discussion is largely the result of leaving out information and discussing the topic from one point of view. • Opportunities and challenges are known, but the solutions are still underdeveloped.

8.1 Future studies This study was originally meant to study local energy initiatives that try to establish sustainable energy practices by applying a bottom-up approach, instead of the institutional top-down approach which is present in this study. There are numeral frameworks being developed on a European level as well as locally, but unfortunately these initiatives are still in the beginning stages and there is hardly any data that prove their validity as functional models. My hope is that more studies within the fields of human geography and urban planning will focus on the energy sector, as it is a difficult subject to understand due to the interregional differences.

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