CRISIS REPORTS

Issue 21 ■ January 2008 Fresh insights into the Zimbabwean situation

BLEAK YEAR AHEAD FOR ZIMBABWE

The one bright spot on the horizon — an election which could bring a change of leader — is dimmer than before.

By Yamikani Mwando in Bulawayo

With no respite in sight from the political and economic crises that maintain their grip on Zimbabwe, the year ahead seems even bleaker than the last for many in the country.

“There is nothing new in the new year”, quipped Raymond Majongwe, secretary general of the militant Progressive Lazele Credit: Teachers’ Union of Zimbabwe. “We are Raymond Majongwe, leader of the Progressive Teachers’ Union of Zimbabwe. Picture still living in old houses, driving old cars taken in July 2007. and we still have an old president.” electorate wearied by the ravaged sweep to victory, leaving the country Many Zimbabweans have been hoping economy, the aging president has still stuck in the mire for another five that President will be managed to firmly entrench himself as years. voted out of power in the March the party’s official nominee, buoyed elections. But as every day passes, up by belligerent veterans of the The view among conservative analysts the prospects of this happening country’s 1970s war of liberation. As is that Mugabe would have done appear to be dimming. Mugabe gears up to run for a sixth better to pick a successor and pass term with the powerful machinery of the baton to the so-called “Young Despite the cracks that emerged in the state at his beck and call, all the Turks” in ZANU-PF in order to secure the ruling ZANU-PF in 2007, and an signs are that he will once again victory in the coming elections.

NEWS IN BRIEF

■ Talks between the ruling ZANU-PF ■ Reserve Bank governor Gideon political rallies and granting and the Movement for Democratic Gono has dismissed as “absolute licenses for journalists. Change collapsed this week after laboratory-generated falsehoods” President Robert Mugabe rejected the allegations made against him ■ An International Monetary Fund a last-ditch bid to break the by member of parliament David document says year-on-year deadlock by his South African Butau, who said he was corrupt inflation for January has reached counterpart Thabo Mbeki, who is and that the central bank was around 150,000 per cent as the leading the mediation effort. involved in illegal dealings. economy continues its downward slide. ■ ZANU-PF’s politburo is expected to ■ Amendments to Zimbabwe’s tough meet on January 23 to deal with a media, security and electoral laws, ■ Food insecurity is likely to affect series of urgent issues affecting which were negotiated with the 4.1 million of the estimated 11.8 the factionised party, in light of opposition, were signed into law million people in Zimbabwe, even fears that of a formal split ahead by President Robert Mugabe at the after the first harvests take place of the crucial presidential and weekend. The amendments ease in March. Widespread flooding has parliamentary elections in March. the restrictions around holding washed away much of the crop.

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But other analysts argue that recovery In his New Year message, Tsvangirai much to celebrate and teachers were from debilitating economic crisis can argued that ZANU-PF wanted to go to “entering the new year poorer than only come from a totally new political the polls with only “cosmetic reforms” ever”. dispensation. In their view, ZANU-PF and to “rig the outcome through a lacks the reformers who could steer flawed process”. Rural communities appear even worse the party away from populist policies off than usual. Many had hoped a that have entrenched corruption and “A lot of work is still pending to repair good agricultural season would help ruined what was once southern our voters’ rolls and the historically alleviate their plight. The rainy season Africa’s second-largest economy. disputed electoral management began well, but then led to flooding system before any legitimate election that could render the 2008 crop a During the run-up to the ZANU-PF with a legitimate result can take place. write-off. congress in December, party loyalists, We maintain that an election is including Gender and Women’s Affairs impossible in the next 100 days, in “Our hope for a better future lay with Minister , insisted March 2008,” he said. the rains,” said one a village elder, Mugabe should carry on indefinitely. noting that the downpours had instead The Zimbabwean parliament fast- left a trail of destruction across the However, the endorsement of Mugabe tracked amendments to three country. as ZANU-PF’s candidate was seen by restrictive laws towards the end of many — including some within the 2007, but the opposition says the HIV/AIDS has continued to wreak ruling party — as a sure way to hand changes were merely designed to havoc, often leaving grandparents to victory to the opposition Movement for hoodwink the SADC leaders who are care for young orphans. Democratic Change. sponsoring the talks mediated by South African president Thabo Meanwhile, young men continue to Mbeki. leave the country in search of work in neighbouring southern African The Public Order and Security Act, countries or further afield, so that ZANU-PF’s reselection of the Access to Information and they can feed their extended Mugabe should have been Protection of Privacy Act and the families, a godsend. Broadcasting Services Act were amended in December in record time. But as Tsvangirai noted — and as many civic groups agree — nothing But hopes that the MDC might take has changed on the ground, with “Daily, we are fighting advantage of a weakened ZANU-PF human rights abuses continuing despondency, hopelessness were dashed by continuing unabated. and state-sanctioned factionalism in the opposition as last despair” — Tsvangirai. year drew to a close. The Zimbabwe Electoral Commission, handpicked by Mugabe himself, has While the main MDC faction under said everything is ready for a March Morgan Tsvangirai has called for all date and there is no going back. Its democratic forces to come together refusal to budge sets the stage for a Last month, villagers in the and form a united front, Gibson possible boycott of the polls by the countryside around Tsholotsho, in Sibanda, the deputy leader of the MDC. Matabeleland, reported an alarming other faction, told the media his group increase in the number of funerals of did not share this vision. Jethro Mpofu, a Bulawayo-based young expatriates who had died while political commentator, believes a working away from home. Another barrier to change is the failure divided MDC does not bode well for of negotiations between ZANU-PF and the party’s chances of electoral Tsvangirai summarised the situation in the MDC mediated by the South success. his message, saying Zimbabweans African Development Community, would need to show “a great deal of SADC. Even though Tsvangirai’s “What will save Zimbabwe is the courage, endurance and our usual members of parliament cooperated coming together of all progressive resilience”. with the ruling party to get a forces under one banner to challenge controversial set of constitutional ZANU-PF,” said Mpofu. “Outside that, “We are stretched to the limit. Daily, we amendments through the legislature, we are in for a long fight against are fighting despondency, he has since hinted that his party will tyranny.” hopelessness and state-sanctioned not take part in the March elections despair,” he said. unless there is an all-new constitution Highlighting the pessimism that has and other mechanisms to ensure a clouded the new year, teaching union Yamikani Mwando is the pseudonym of free and fair vote. leader Majongwe said there was not a journalist in Bulawayo. ■

2 ■ ISSUE 21 ZIMBABWE CRISIS REPORTS CENTRAL BANK CHIEF RIDES MONETARY STORM

Allegations that cash provided by Zimbabwe’s monetary authority was illegally converted into foreign currency.

From Joseph Sithole in

Zimbabwe’s powerful Central Bank governor Gideon Gono has had a bumpy start to the new year. Just as he tried to assert control over the circulation of money, which he claims is being subverted by speculators in high places, allegations emerged that his own institution had been complicit in shady foreign currency trading. Credit: Lazele Credit:

As a two-month-long crisis peaked A “bearer cheque” or surrogate banknote worth 200,000 Zimbabwean dollars. around Christmas, Gono, who is Picture taken January 17. chairman of the , announced that the current Gono executed a complete policy As well as the “cash barons” he highest denomination of paper money, reverse, saying the notes would after blames for stockpiling the missing 200,000 Zimbabwean dollars, ZWD — all remain legal tender until an bearer cheques, Gono has accused worth only about 10 US cents on the unspecified date in the future. His government officials and senior parallel market — was to cease being explanation was that not enough of the members of the ruling ZANU-PF party legal tender on December 31. higher-denomination cheques had of hoarding foreign currency, of which been printed to meet the need for Zimbabwe is in chronically short Gono’s plan was designed to cut the money nationwide. supply. feet from under what he called “cash barons” who he said were In any case, he said, there was no Now the targets of his attacks are accumulating vast amounts of the point in reducing trillions of dollars’ fighting back, accusing the Central money. worth of existing bearer cheques to Bank of complicity in illicit foreign “manure” at a time when the nation currency purchases. He has announced the issue of notes was still facing a serious cash crunch. in higher denominations of 250,000, Last week, a Harare woman called 500,000 and 750,000 ZWD. When he launched the new-issue Dorothy Mutekede was arrested for cheques, Gono said he had been black-market currency trading when The existing and proposed money given the authority to print money as she was found in possession of ten looks like conventional banknotes but and when he deemed it necessary. billion ZWD in the newly-printed bearer in fact takes the form of bearer cheques just as they were being cheques, which the Central Bank has His critics have in the past accused released to the banks. She alleged introduced as an emergency him of fuelling inflation by printing that a senior figure in the Reserve measure in recent years as the face money at will and failing to keep Bank (not Gono) was the source of the value of the track of it properly. One of the cash, and was fined and released. continues to plummet at alarming reasons that Gono gave for rates in the hyperinflationary withdrawing the 200,000 ZWD notes Her claims came as a huge environment. was that, out of 67 trillion ZWD embarrassment for the Central Bank released onto the market, only two governor, who has pitched himself as On the New Year’s Eve, the 200,000 trillion could be accounted for in the a champion against corruption in the ZWD cheques were to go out of use, banking system. financial sector.

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The incident happened as a court in Harare heard that the Central Bank HEAVY RAINS A funneled money to a company that did not hold the foreign-currency DISASTER FOR FARMING equivalent it claimed to have.

In court, a man called Joseph Manjoro pleaded guilty to raising foreign currency on the black market on behalf of Flatwater Investments, to enable it to pay for farm machinery bought in South Africa. In mitigation, the defendant said the Zimbabwean currency he used in the illegal transaction formed part of seven trillion ZWD the company had received from the Reserve Bank.

Harare prosecutor has called for an investigation into links between the central bank and Flatwater Credit: Lazele Credit: Investments. Flooding and a fertiliser shortage could affect the maize crop on this farming plot outside Harare. Picture taken January 16.

Government earnest, because in the past, During the court proceedings, mismanagement of the October rains have been followed by prosecutor Tawanda Zvekare said the farming sector blamed for a dry interval in November and Reserve Bank supplied the money in December, wiping out the young ZWD to Flatwater without ensuring that compounding problems crops. People have then been forced the firm had adequate liquidity held in caused by massive flooding. to replant from inadequate seed US dollars. resources, and in drought years By Mike Nyoni in Harare when the rainy season has ended According to Zvekare, the central bank prematurely around March, the crops “literally splashed cash to Flatwater have been a write-off. without verifying if they were very good Zimbabwe’s farmers had an business partners”. auspicious start to the New Year, with Insufficient supplies of seed for the heavy rains which began in earnest on staple cereal, maize, and shortages of The prosecutor called for links December 3. But analysts warn that fertilisers are a persistent problem, between the Reserve Bank and the country might nevertheless caused by the critical lack of foreign Flatwater to be investigated further. experience its worst food crisis yet, currency in the economy over recent because of widespread flooding which years. Gono has challenged those making has revealed that the authorities were such accusations to substantiate the poorly-prepared and had no back-up This time round, there are widespread claims. plan. fears that the incessant rains pounding the country could lead to Meanwhile, he is continuing with his While there were early warnings that crop failure, due to waterlogging and own offensive, promising to name the Zimbabwe would see above-normal the lack of sun. corrupt officials he accuses of rainfall levels over the 2007-08 currency speculation when he appears season, the government failed to In what some observers see as an before parliament’s budget and advise farmers when they should start early sign of climate change in finance committee next week. planting. Zimbabwe, the month of December was described as the wettest since Joseph Sithole is the pseudonym of a Farmers were in a quandary over records were first kept 127 years ago. Harare-based journalist. ■ when they should start planting in The rains have led to massive flooding

4 ■ ISSUE 21 ZIMBABWE CRISIS REPORTS in most countries in southern Africa, “Limited quantities of seed were only It did not explain where the farmers resulting in loss of life, livestock available [at the] beginning of should source the extra fertiliser. depletion and crop destruction. December,” said Gasela. “This was obviously too late for the planting Major fertiliser producers such as the “In agriculture, we say rain makes season. What this means, therefore, is Zimbabwe Fertiliser Company, grain, [yet] in Zimbabwe this year at that there was not enough seed for the Zimbabwe Phosphate Industries and least we must say rain makes targeted two million hectares. Most of Windmill have drastically scaled back starvation,” said Renson Gasela, a the seed went to the soldiers for production, citing the high cost of raw former general manager of the state Maguta.” materials and a lack of the foreign monopoly Grain Marketing Board, and currency needed to buy them. They now secretary for land and agriculture Maguta is a programme launched by have also accused government of in one of two factions of the opposition the government three years ago to setting sale prices too low for them to Movement for Democratic Change. involve military manpower in be able to run at a profit. agriculture, in a desperate effort to In the case of Zimbabwe, analysts say, boost food production. Zimbabwe has experienced serious the situation will be made worse by the food shortages since the government lack of forward planning. For example, Gasela said that as of the end of embarked on a land reform when the authorities began distributing December, less than 730,000 of the programme in 2000 which displaced tractors, harrows and ploughs to target two million hectares had been white commercial farmers and settled newly-resettled farmers in October planted. many senior ZANU-PF, army and police under the Agricultural Mechanisation officials on formerly productive lands. Programme, it was already too late — “The incessant rains have prevented the equipment was never going to any further planting,” he said. “The Mugabe has often blamed food reach the majority of beneficiaries in planted crops are waterlogged, are shortages on droughts, an excuse time for planting. Thus, when the rains suffering from nitrogen deficiency and which will be hard to sell this year. began in early December, even those are in need of sunshine. There is an who had received free seed and acute shortage of top dressing Donors are likely to face renewed fertiliser from the government had not fertilisers. GMB [Grain Marketing requests for food aid for hungry done their planting. Board] has none. The shops have Zimbabweans in the coming months. none. The country has none.” Moreover, the seed available fell far “There will be massive shortages of short of the projected need. The President Robert Mugabe’s food,” said Gasela. “With what reasons government had set a target of two government appears to be in denial do you approach donors after such a million hectares under maize, which about the scale of the shortfall in good rainfall season? When there is no works out at 50,000 tons of seed. agricultural inputs. In response to the rain, Zimbabweans starve; when there However, only 30,000 tons were heavy rains this week, the Department are good rains, Zimbabweans still available at the start of the rainy of Agricultural Extension Services starve.” season, with the shortfall expected advised farmers to “increase fertiliser to be met through imports from application on their crops to counter Mike Nyoni is the pseudonym of a China. increased leaching and waterlogging”. journalist in Harare. ■

The Zimbabwe Crisis Report is information provision, It also contributes to the an initiative of IWPR-Africa’s capacity building and development of regional policy, Zimbabwe Programme. dissemination and distribution. promotes dialogue and builds This programme promotes bridges within the region. It also democratization and good The key purpose is to increase raises the Africa wide and governance with Southern Africa awareness in the Southern African international profile of Zimbabwe and contributes to the region of the Zimbabwean in the context of the region. development of a culture of situation and the implications for Importantly it also builds the skills human rights and the rule of law. regional peace, security and and capacity of the media to Focusing on Zimbabwe the economic development. reliably and accurately report programme has three core political transition, governance and components — human rights issues.

The programme is managed by the Institute for War and Peace Reporting — Africa. For further details go to www.iwpr.net

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