FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE October 7, 2011

INTERVIEWS: Tom Jensen 919-744-6312

IF YOU HAVE BASIC METHODOLOGICAL QUESTIONS, PLEASE E-MAIL [email protected], OR CONSULT THE FINAL PARAGRAPH OF THE PRESS RELEASE

Heineman, Johanns popularity declining in NE, still well liked

Raleigh, N.C. – Gov. Dave Heineman is still one of the most popular governors in the country, but no longer the most popular. When PPP last polled the state in January, two- thirds of Nebraska voters approved of his job performance, and 23% disapproved. That astonishing 44-point spread topped the list of 42 governors on which PPP has polled until now. In the latest survey, only 57% approve, with 29% disapproving, a 16-point downturn. But in a land of unpopular politicians, that still makes him the second best liked of the 37 governors polled this year, after Colorado’s John Hickenlooper. Heineman has declined with Democrats, independents, and even his own Republicans.

Sen. Mike Johanns’ standing has also slipped, by 11 points, from 59-28 to 52-32. He had been tied with Vermont’s Patrick Leahy for the seventh most popular of 87 senators on which PPP has polled, and has falled to a tie for 21st with Hawaii’s Daniel Akaka. Republicans are a little down in him in the last eight months, but most of the fall is with independents, who have soured on him by 28 points on the margin, from 50-32 to 36-46.

1st-District Rep. Jeff Fortenberry is the most popular of the three congressmen statewide, with a 33-26 favorability spread. In his current district, half see him favorably and 30% unfavorably. If he runs again under the newly drawn lines which have made the 1st slightly more Democratic, he stands at 45-31. 2nd-District Rep. Lee Terry is narrowly disliked statewide, at 32-33. That is even worse with his own constitutents, 41-45. The 2nd is currently the bluest of the three districts. His future constitutents do not like him much more (43-42). 3rd-District Rep. Adrian Smith is at 30-26 statewide, 56-29 with those he currently serves, and 52-28 with those he will if he wins re-election next fall.

Former Sens. Chuck Hagel (44-30) and Bob Kerrey (39-34) are looked back on moderately well. Democrat Kerrey is only slightly more liked by his own party than Hagel is across the aisle, and Republicans about break even on Hagel. Both are seen very well by independents.

PPP surveyed 739 Nebraska voters from September 30th to October 2nd. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.6%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.

Public Policy Polling Phone: 888 621-6988 3020 Highwoods Blvd. Web: www.publicpolicypolling.com Raleigh, NC 27604 Email: [email protected] Nebraska Survey Results

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion Dave Heineman’s job performance? of Chuck Hagel? Approve ...... 57% Favorable...... 44% Disapprove...... 29% Unfavorable ...... 30% Not sure ...... 14% Not sure ...... 26% Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Mike Q8 Who did you vote for President in 2008? Johanns' job performance? John McCain...... 53% Approve ...... 52% Barack Obama...... 38% Disapprove...... 32% Someone else/Don't remember ...... 8% Not sure ...... 16% Q9 Would you describe yourself as very liberal, Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat of Jeff Fortenberry? conservative, or very conservative? Favorable...... 33% Very liberal...... 11% Unfavorable ...... 26% Somewhat liberal ...... 15% Not sure ...... 41% Moderate...... 27% Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion Somewhat conservative...... 23% of Lee Terry? Very conservative ...... 24% Favorable...... 32% Q10 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2. Unfavorable ...... 33% Woman ...... 52% Not sure ...... 34% Man...... 48% Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion Q11 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican, of Adrian Smith? press 2. If you are an independent or identify Favorable...... 30% with another party, press 3. Unfavorable ...... 26% Democrat ...... 32% Not sure ...... 44% Republican...... 51% Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion Independent/Other...... 17% of Bob Kerrey? Q12 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2. Favorable...... 39% White ...... 93% Unfavorable ...... 34% Other...... 7% Not sure ...... 27%

September 30-October 2, 2011 3020 Highwoods Blvd. Survey of 739 Nebraska voters Raleigh, NC 27604 [email protected] / 888 621-6988 Q13 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to Q15 Old Congressional District 45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are 40% older than 65, press 4. 1st...... 2nd...... 32% 18 to 29...... 8% 3rd ...... 27% 30 to 45...... 27% 46 to 65...... 45% Older than 65 ...... 20% Q14 New Congressional District 1st...... 41% 2nd...... 30% 3rd ...... 29%

September 30-October 2, 2011 3020 Highwoods Blvd. Survey of 739 Nebraska voters Raleigh, NC 27604 [email protected] / 888 621-6988 Crosstabs

2008 Vote 2008 Vote John Bar ack Someone else/Don't John Bar ack Someone else/Don't Bas e McCain Obam a remember Bas e McCain Obam a remember Heineman Approval Johanns Approval Approve 57% 76% 36% 34% Approve 52% 73% 28% 31% Dis appr ove 29% 12% 48% 43% Dis appr ove 32% 13% 57% 42% Not s ur e 14% 11% 15% 23% Not s ur e 16% 13% 16% 28%

2008 Vote 2008 Vote John Bar ack Someone else/Don't John Bar ack Someone else/Don't Bas e McCain Obam a remember Bas e McCain Obam a remember Forte nbe r ry Terry Favorability

Favorability Favorable 32% 48% 15% 11% Favorable 33% 45% 21% 13% Unfavorable 33% 15% 55% 50% Unfavorable 26% 11% 43% 41% Not s ur e 34% 37% 29% 39% Not s ur e 41% 43% 37% 46%

September 30-October 2, 2011 3020 Highwoods Blvd. survey of 739 Nebraska voters Raleigh, NC 27604 [email protected] / 888 621-6988 Crosstabs

2008 Vote 2008 Vote John Bar ack Someone else/Don't John Bar ack Someone else/Don't Bas e McCain Obam a remember Bas e McCain Obam a remember Smith Favorability Kerrey Favorability Favorable 30% 45% 12% 15% Favorable 39% 21% 61% 42% Unfavorable 26% 12% 43% 38% Unfavorable 34% 48% 18% 26% Not s ur e 44% 43% 45% 47% Not s ur e 27% 31% 21% 32%

2008 Vote Ideology

Very Som ew hat Som ew hat Very John Bar ack Someone else/Don't Bas e liberal liberal Moderate conservative conservative Bas e McCain Obam a remember Heineman Approval Hagel Favorability Approve 57% 34% 37% 46% 71% 80% Favorable 44% 34% 56% 52% Disapprove 29% 51% 48% 37% 17% 8% Not s ur e 14% 16% 15% 17% 11% 12% Unfavorable 30% 38% 22% 17% Not s ur e 26% 28% 22% 31%

September 30-October 2, 2011 3020 Highwoods Blvd. survey of 739 Nebraska voters Raleigh, NC 27604 [email protected] / 888 621-6988 Crosstabs

Ideology Ideology Very Som ew hat Som ew hat Very Very Som ew hat Som ew hat Very Bas e liberal liberal Moderate conservative conservative Bas e liberal liberal Moderate conservative conservative Johanns Approval Forte nbe r ry

Favorability Approve 52% 21% 28% 36% 69% 83% Favorable 33% 14% 14% 32% 39% 49% Disapprove 32% 64% 55% 45% 15% 7% Unfavorable 26% 61% 42% 31% 14% 6% Not s ur e 16% 15% 17% 19% 16% 10% Not s ur e 41% 25% 44% 37% 47% 45%

Ideology Ideology Very Som ew hat Som ew hat Very Very Som ew hat Som ew hat Very Bas e liberal liberal Moderate conservative conservative Bas e liberal liberal Moderate conservative conservative Terry Favorability Smith Favorability Favorable 32% 15% 14% 23% 46% 49% Favorable 30% 5% 12% 23% 41% 48% Unfavorable 33% 63% 57% 43% 16% 11% Unfavorable 26% 56% 41% 33% 14% 7% Not s ur e 34% 23% 28% 34% 38% 40% Not s ur e 44% 38% 47% 43% 45% 45%

September 30-October 2, 2011 3020 Highwoods Blvd. survey of 739 Nebraska voters Raleigh, NC 27604 [email protected] / 888 621-6988 Crosstabs

Ideology Ideology Very Som ew hat Som ew hat Very Very Som ew hat Som ew hat Very Bas e liberal liberal Moderate conservative conservative Bas e liberal liberal Moderate conservative conservative Kerrey Favorability Hagel Favorability Favorable 39% 48% 58% 54% 29% 14% Favorable 44% 45% 56% 54% 43% 26% Unfavorable 34% 21% 20% 19% 38% 62% Unfavorable 30% 28% 20% 20% 30% 48% Not s ur e 27% 30% 22% 26% 33% 24% Not s ur e 26% 27% 23% 26% 28% 26%

Ge nder Ge nder

Bas e Wom an Man Bas e Wom an Man Heineman Approval Johanns Approval Approve 57% 58% 57% Approve 52% 53% 52% Dis appr ove 29% 26% 32% Dis appr ove 32% 28% 37% Not s ur e 14% 16% 11% Not s ur e 16% 19% 11%

September 30-October 2, 2011 3020 Highwoods Blvd. survey of 739 Nebraska voters Raleigh, NC 27604 [email protected] / 888 621-6988 Crosstabs

Ge nder Ge nder

Bas e Wom an Man Bas e Wom an Man For te nbe rr y Terry Favorability

Favorability Favorable 32% 28% 37% Favorable 33% 34% 33% Unfavorable 33% 30% 37% Unfavorable 26% 20% 33% Not s ur e 34% 43% 25% Not s ur e 41% 47% 35%

Ge nder Ge nder

Bas e Wom an Man Bas e Wom an Man Smith Favorability Kerrey Favorability Favorable 30% 30% 29% Favorable 39% 40% 38% Unfavorable 26% 19% 34% Unfavorable 34% 29% 40% Not s ur e 44% 51% 37% Not s ur e 27% 32% 22%

September 30-October 2, 2011 3020 Highwoods Blvd. survey of 739 Nebraska voters Raleigh, NC 27604 [email protected] / 888 621-6988 Crosstabs

Ge nder Party

Bas e Democrat Republican Independent/Other Bas e Wom an Man Heineman Approval Hagel Favorability Approve 57% 37% 72% 55% Favorable 44% 45% 43% Dis appr ove 29% 47% 15% 35% Unfavorable 30% 24% 36% Not s ur e 14% 17% 13% 11% Not s ur e 26% 31% 21%

Party Party

Bas e Democrat Republican Independent/Other Bas e Democrat Republican Independent/Other Johanns Approval Fortenberry

Favorability Approve 52% 31% 72% 36% Favor able 33% 18% 44% 28% Dis appr ove 32% 52% 15% 46% Unfavorable 26% 43% 14% 28% Not s ur e 16% 18% 13% 18% Not s ur e 41% 39% 42% 44%

September 30-October 2, 2011 3020 Highwoods Blvd. survey of 739 Nebraska voters Raleigh, NC 27604 [email protected] / 888 621-6988 Crosstabs

Party Party

Bas e Democrat Republican Independent/Other Bas e Democrat Republican Independent/Other Terry Favorability Smith Favorability Favor able 32% 16% 44% 29% Favor able 30% 12% 43% 23% Unfavorable 33% 57% 19% 32% Unfavorable 26% 43% 14% 29% Not s ur e 34% 28% 37% 40% Not s ur e 44% 44% 43% 48%

Party Party

Bas e Democrat Republican Independent/Other Bas e Democrat Republican Independent/Other Kerrey Favorability Hagel Favorability Favor able 39% 59% 23% 47% Favor able 44% 54% 38% 44% Unfavorable 34% 19% 47% 24% Unfavorable 30% 22% 37% 26% Not s ur e 27% 22% 30% 28% Not s ur e 26% 24% 26% 31%

September 30-October 2, 2011 3020 Highwoods Blvd. survey of 739 Nebraska voters Raleigh, NC 27604 [email protected] / 888 621-6988 Crosstabs

Race Race

Bas e White Other Bas e White Other Heineman Approval Johanns Approval Approve 57% 58% 46% Approve 52% 54% 27% Dis appr ove 29% 27% 47% Dis appr ove 32% 31% 43% Not s ur e 14% 14% 7% Not s ur e 16% 14% 30%

Race Race

Bas e White Other Bas e White Other For te nbe rr y Terry Favorability

Favorability Favorable 32% 33% 19% Favorable 33% 34% 17% Unfavorable 33% 33% 43% Unfavorable 26% 25% 38% Not s ur e 34% 34% 38% Not s ur e 41% 41% 45%

September 30-October 2, 2011 3020 Highwoods Blvd. survey of 739 Nebraska voters Raleigh, NC 27604 [email protected] / 888 621-6988 Crosstabs

Race Race

Bas e White Other Bas e White Other Smith Favorability Kerrey Favorability Favorable 30% 31% 10% Favorable 39% 39% 29% Unfavorable 26% 25% 38% Unfavorable 34% 34% 32% Not s ur e 44% 44% 52% Not s ur e 27% 26% 39%

Race Age

Bas e White Other 18 to 30 to 46 to Olde r Bas e 29 45 65 than 65 Hagel Favorability Heineman Approval Favorable 44% 44% 40% Approve 57% 35% 56% 59% 65% Unfavorable 30% 31% 17% Dis appr ove 29% 55% 27% 27% 24% Not s ur e 26% 25% 43% Not s ur e 14% 10% 17% 14% 12%

September 30-October 2, 2011 3020 Highwoods Blvd. survey of 739 Nebraska voters Raleigh, NC 27604 [email protected] / 888 621-6988 Crosstabs

Age Age 18 to 30 to 46 to Olde r 18 to 30 to 46 to Olde r Bas e 29 45 65 than 65 Bas e 29 45 65 than 65 Johanns Approval For te nbe rr y

Favorability Approve 52% 20% 56% 53% 58% Favorable 33% 5% 32% 34% 43% Dis appr ove 32% 55% 28% 35% 23% Unfavorable 26% 65% 24% 25% 15% Not s ur e 16% 25% 16% 12% 19% Not s ur e 41% 30% 44% 41% 42%

Age Age 18 to 30 to 46 to Olde r 18 to 30 to 46 to Olde r Bas e 29 45 65 than 65 Bas e 29 45 65 than 65 Terry Favorability Smith Favorability Favorable 32% 20% 37% 31% 33% Favorable 30% 10% 25% 31% 41% Unfavorable 33% 55% 29% 35% 27% Unfavorable 26% 50% 23% 27% 20% Not s ur e 34% 25% 34% 34% 39% Not s ur e 44% 40% 52% 42% 39%

September 30-October 2, 2011 3020 Highwoods Blvd. survey of 739 Nebraska voters Raleigh, NC 27604 [email protected] / 888 621-6988 Crosstabs

Age Age 18 to 30 to 46 to Olde r 18 to 30 to 46 to Olde r Bas e 29 45 65 than 65 Bas e 29 45 65 than 65 Kerrey Favorability Hagel Favorability Favorable 39% 30% 41% 41% 33% Favorable 44% 30% 48% 44% 45% Unfavorable 34% 35% 31% 35% 36% Unfavorable 30% 40% 23% 34% 26% Not s ur e 27% 35% 28% 24% 31% Not s ur e 26% 30% 29% 22% 29%

New Congressional New Congressional Dis tr ict Dis tr ict Bas e 1st 2nd 3rd Bas e 1st 2nd 3rd Heineman Approval Johanns Approval Approve 57% 57% 57% 57% Approve 52% 50% 53% 54% Dis appr ove 29% 29% 30% 27% Dis appr ove 32% 35% 31% 30% Not s ur e 14% 14% 13% 15% Not s ur e 16% 15% 16% 16%

September 30-October 2, 2011 3020 Highwoods Blvd. survey of 739 Nebraska voters Raleigh, NC 27604 [email protected] / 888 621-6988 Crosstabs

New Congressional New Congressional Dis tr ict Dis tr ict Bas e 1st 2nd 3rd Bas e 1st 2nd 3rd For te nbe r r y Terry Favorability

Favorability Favorable 32% 32% 43% 23% Favorable 33% 45% 24% 26% Unfavorable 34% 37% 42% 21% Unfavorable 26% 31% 28% 17% Not s ur e 34% 32% 15% 57% Not s ur e 41% 24% 47% 57%

New Congressional New Congressional Dis tr ict Dis tr ict Bas e 1st 2nd 3rd Bas e 1st 2nd 3rd Smith Favorability Kerrey Favorability Favorable 29% 23% 16% 52% Favorable 39% 42% 36% 37% Unfavorable 26% 30% 20% 28% Unfavorable 34% 28% 45% 32% Not s ur e 44% 47% 65% 20% Not s ur e 27% 29% 19% 31%

September 30-October 2, 2011 3020 Highwoods Blvd. survey of 739 Nebraska voters Raleigh, NC 27604 [email protected] / 888 621-6988 Crosstabs

New Congressional Old Congressional Dis tr ict Dis tr ict Bas e 1st 2nd 3rd Bas e 1st 2nd 3rd Hagel Favorability Heineman Approval Favorable 44% 41% 46% 47% Approve 57% 55% 57% 60% Unfavorable 30% 32% 31% 26% Dis appr ove 29% 30% 29% 27% Not s ur e 26% 27% 23% 27% Not s ur e 14% 15% 14% 13%

Old Congressional Old Congressional Dis tr ict Dis tr ict Bas e 1st 2nd 3rd Bas e 1st 2nd 3rd Johanns Approval For te nbe rr y

Favorability Approve 52% 50% 53% 53% Favorable 33% 50% 23% 22% Dis appr ove 32% 34% 31% 31% Unfavorable 26% 30% 28% 17% Not s ur e 16% 15% 16% 16% Not s ur e 41% 20% 49% 62%

September 30-October 2, 2011 3020 Highwoods Blvd. survey of 739 Nebraska voters Raleigh, NC 27604 [email protected] / 888 621-6988 Crosstabs

Old Congressional Old Congressional Dis tr ict Dis tr ict Bas e 1st 2nd 3rd Bas e 1st 2nd 3rd Terry Favorability Smith Favorability Favorable 32% 33% 41% 21% Favorable 29% 22% 16% 56% Unfavorable 34% 34% 45% 19% Unfavorable 26% 29% 20% 29% Not s ur e 34% 33% 14% 60% Not s ur e 44% 49% 64% 15%

Old Congressional Old Congressional Dis tr ict Dis tr ict Bas e 1st 2nd 3rd Bas e 1st 2nd 3rd Kerrey Favorability Hagel Favorability Favorable 39% 44% 36% 35% Favorable 44% 43% 46% 43% Unfavorable 34% 29% 43% 32% Unfavorable 30% 30% 33% 26% Not s ur e 27% 27% 21% 33% Not s ur e 26% 27% 21% 30%

September 30-October 2, 2011 3020 Highwoods Blvd. survey of 739 Nebraska voters Raleigh, NC 27604 [email protected] / 888 621-6988