Space Policies, Issues and Trends in 2009/2010
Report 23 June 2010
Spyros Pagkratis
Short title: ESPI Report 23 ISSN: 2076-6688 Published in June 2010 Price: €11
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ESPI Report 23 2 June 2010 Space Policies, Issues and Trends in 2009/2010
Table of Contents
1. Global Political and Economic Trends 5 1.1 Global Economic Outlook 5 1.2 Political Developments 8 1.2.1 Security 8 1.2.2 Environment 9 1.2.3 Energy 11 1.2.4 Resources 13 1.2.5 Knowledge 14 1.2.6 Mobility 14 1.3 The Financial Crisis and Its Consequences for the Space Sector 16
2. Global Space Sector Size and Developments 18 2.1 Global Space Budgets and Revenues 18 2.2 Overview of Institutional Space Budgets 18 2.3 Overview of Commercial Space Markets 22 2.3.1 Satellite Services 22 2.3.2 Satellite Manufacturing 26 2.3.3 Launch Sector 26 2.3.4 Ground Equipment 27 2.3.5 Insurance Sector 27
3. Space Policies and Strategies around the World 29 3.1 European Union 29 3.2 European Space Agency 33 3.3 EUMETSAT 35 3.4 National Governments 36 3.4.1 France 36 3.4.2 Germany 37 3.4.3 Italy 39 3.4.4 United Kingdom 40 3.5 United States of America 41 3.5.1 National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) 42 3.5.2 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) 48 3.6 Russia 49 3.7 Japan 51 3.8 China 52 3.9 India 52 3.10 Emerging Space Actors 53 3.10.1 Africa 53 3.10.2 Southeast Asia 53 3.10.3 Middle East 54 3.10.4 Latin America 55 3.11 International Sectoral Comparison 55 3.11.1 Launch Sector 55 3.11.2 Missions Launched 58 3.11.3 Overall Assessment 59
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4. European Institutional Market 61 4.1 European Institutional Features 61 4.2 Civilian Space Expenditure 62 4.3. European Space Agency (ESA) 62 4.4 EUMETSAT 64 4.5 National Agencies 66 4.5.1 France 66 4.5.2 Germany 67 4.5.3 Italy 67 4.6 European Union 67 4.7 Security-Related Space Expenditures 69
5. Space Industry Evolutions 71 5.1 Europe 71 5.2 United States 74 5.3 Russia 78 5.4 Japan 79 5.5 China 80 5.6 India 80 5.7 Canada 82 5.8 Brazil 83 5.9 Transatlantic Industrial Comparison 83 5.9.1 State of the European Space Industry 83 5.9.2 State of the United States’ Space Industry 85 5.10 Sectoral Overview 87 5.10.1 Launch Sector 87 5.10.2 Satellite Manufacturing Sector 93
6. The Defence Perspective 98 6.1 Recent Trends in Military Expenditure 98 6.2 Europe 98 6.2.1 National Military Space Programmes 98 6.2.2 European Union 100 6.2.3 ESA 101 6.3 The United States 101 6.4 Russia 107 6.5 Japan 109 6.6 China 110 6.7 India 110
7. The Specific Role of Institutions 111 7.1 Europe 111 7.2 United Nations (UN) Institutions 112 7.2.1 United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) 112 7.2.2 UNGA Committees 113 7.2.3 Other UN Bodies Monitoring Space Activities 113 7.3 Non-Governmental Organisations (NGOs) 114
Acronyms 116
Acknowledgements 122
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1. Global Political and Economic Trends
In 2009 the global financial crisis entered a lasting post-crisis characteristics such as low new stage, in which the adverse effects of inflation, a drop in private consumption and last year’s credit crisis started to weigh on investment, and a steep rise in unemploy- worldwide economic activity. The year was ment which may become structural. Markets marked by a fall in global industrial produc- and financial institutions have been stabilising tion and trade activity and a consequent and will continue to do so in 2010. Neverthe- steep rise in unemployment. However, the less, market financial stress and risk aversion first signs of improvement also made their will remain elevated for the foreseeable fu- appearance, as bank earnings and capital ture, which will put considerable stress on levels began to rise again and GDP growth households and medium-size enterprises, and started to return, although it is not expected will consequently continue to increase bank to reach pre-crisis levels for several years. In loan delinquencies. On the upside, interna- 2010 this trend is expected to continue, but tional capital flows are on the way to recover- economic recovery will be slow and precari- ing3. ous. This year’s economic policies are ex- In the financial sector the year has been pected to focus on continuing the reform of marked by a slow return of risk appetite that the financial and banking system, rebalancing has led to considerable currency fluctuations, the patterns of global trade, boosting private with the Euro strengthening its position consumption, enhancing international coop- against both the Dollar and the Yen on the eration and restraining unemployment rates second half of 2009, before falling again in before they change from cyclical to struc- 2010. Bank loans to the private sector how- tural. The pace of economic recovery is ex- ever are still stagnating, especially in ad- pected to be slow and very different from vanced economies. In fact, credit risks re- country to country. Emerging economies will main elevated and the sustainability of bank exit the crisis at a quicker pace than ad- earnings is still precarious at best: in October vanced ones, but the whole process will re- 2009 global bank write-downs were esti- main fragile and extremely vulnerable to mated to reach $2.8 trillion and more than adverse events such as rising commodity half of this amount has not yet been recog- prices, geopolitical events, or a resurge of nised. The bulk of these losses are attributed protectionism. to U.S., UK and Euro zone banks. In addition to this, a further $1.5 trillion wall of maturing dept will have to be met by 20124. By com- 1.1 Global Economic Outlook parison to European banks, U.S. banks have deleveraged faster and this may help credit In 2009 the global economy appears to be conditions in that country to ease sooner. expanding again and this trend is expected to Nonetheless, financing conditions for con- continue in 2010. At present, Asian econo- sumers and medium-size companies in de- mies seem to be the driving force behind veloped countries are expected to remain global economic recovery, whereas stabilisa- difficult. tion and modest improvement is the case In the second half of 2009 global markets elsewhere. Apart from Asia however, recov- continued to stabilise and this is expected to ery is projected to be weak and slow by his- continue in 2010. Even though investment torical standards and GDP growth will remain will not attain pre-crisis levels in the foresee- well below pre-crisis levels until 2014 at able future, a certain risk appetite has re- least1. For 2010 global activity is expected to turned. For the moment, however, market expand by approximately 3%, after a 1% recovery seems fragile, a number of financial contraction in 2009. Growth in emerging stress indicators remain high and the fear of economies will be significantly higher2. This a possible reversal weighs heavily on inves- sluggish recovery will be marked by long tors. In the context of the credit conditions described above, global markets are thought 1 International Monetary Fund. World Economic Outlook: Sustaining the Recovery. Washington D.C.: IMF, October 2009: 1. 3 Ibid: 2–4. 2 Ibid: xiv–xv+29. 4 Ibid: 5–6.
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to remain extremely sensitive to external choosing the right timing, and respecting as factors such as geopolitical events or real- much as possible macroeconomic budgetary estate-related shocks. Real-estate in particu- and fiscal constraints. Indeed in 2009 and the lar will continue to put pressure on bank bal- first half of 2010, public support for the re- ance sheets, whereas subsequent low con- capitalisation of financial institutions dimin- struction activity is expected to create addi- ished considerably, especially in advanced tional risks for the financial sector in general5. economies. Public opinion is becoming more and more sceptical on measures that are On a global scale inflation moderated to 1% perceived as generous government bailouts in mid 2009 down from 6% a year earlier and for firms that were largely responsible for the is expected to remain low in 2010 as well. credit crisis in the first place9. This develop- Inflation rates in emerging economies varied ment, in conjunction with increasing unem- considerably from region to region, dropping ployment, will make governments reluctant in Asian countries and rising in East European to increase recapitalisation measures in the ones. Advanced economies are still facing face of mounting political pressure to do the mild deflation risks as the pace of economic opposite. recovery remains slow, even though inflation rates are expected to rise above zero in In 2010, political considerations together with 2010. Deflationary dangers in these countries an improving financial environment will push are aggravated by the fact that interest rates governments to consider lifting the extraordi- have been brought close to zero and there is nary monetary accommodation that they little room left for additional financial stimulus offered to financial institutions in 2008. It from monetary policy measures6. seems that the most difficult task ahead will be to carefully choose the timing of this deci- Unemployment rose throughout 2009 and is sion. If the unwinding of public intervention anticipated to continue rising in advanced comes too soon, it will place the progress economies throughout 2010. Both in the U.S. made in 2009 in jeopardy. If it is protracted and the Euro zone, unemployment rates are for a longer period than necessary, it will anticipated to exceed 10% in 2010. Non- distort market incentives and create fiscal financial corporations and medium-size com- problems for national budgets10. Although panies will continue to lay off workers due to monetary accommodation measures are the aforementioned difficult financial condi- likely to stay in force throughout 2010, gov- tions. Countries with proportionately greater ernments will probably have to decide on this construction sectors will suffer even greater matter before the end of the year. job losses. Euro zone countries are projected to face higher unemployment rates than the Finally, lifting recapitalisation measures will U.S. (up to 12% in 2010) due to a more have to be accompanied by medium term sluggish recovery and a less adjustable job policy decisions on reforming the financial market. In the medium-term, historical evi- sector framework, while restructuring fiscal dence suggests that in the aftermath of ma- policies to accommodate the large public dept jor economic crises and the protracted recov- that the crisis generated in many countries. ering period that succeeds them, unemploy- Prudent macroeconomic decisions will have to ment can become structural and difficult to be made on both issues in 2010 and this deal with. This might be the case in the Euro development is already under debate both on zone, where unemployment rates are not a national and an international level. In fact expected to fall bellow 10% before 2014 at in 2009, there has been an unprecedented the earliest7. In any event, rising unemploy- level of international cooperation in tackling ment will pose a major challenge to all ad- the credit crisis aftermath. In 2010, this co- vanced economies throughout 20108. operation is expected to expand into taking specific regulatory decisions on reforming the As a result of the above-mentioned factors, financial sector operating framework, stabilis- governments worldwide will continue to im- ing the economic circle, and avoiding financial plement extraordinary public support meas- protectionism. Indeed, protecting public fi- ures for financial institutions well into 2010. nances and especially central banks’ balance These measures however will have to face sheets already became a key plank of eco- the challenge of transforming from short- nomic measures in the second half of 2009, term financial stimulus schemes to medium- and this is expected to continue. In conclu- term comprehensive reform policies. Formu- sion, the main challenge that advanced lating these policies faces three major chal- economies are facing in 2010 is the need to lenges: rallying the necessary public support, find room for adequate macroeconomic coun- tercyclical policies in the face of fiscal prob- 5 Ibid: 4+12+18+39. 6 Ibid: 18+29–30. 7 Ibid: 7+31–32. 9 Ibid: 28. 8 Ibid: 49. 10 Ibid: 42–47.
ESPI Report 23 6 June 2010 Space Policies, Issues and Trends in 2009/2010
lems caused by accumulated public dept dur- mand in the country fell sharply, followed by ing the crisis period11. production (-12.6% in tradable goods in 2009) and investment. Unemployment ad- One of the key trends in 2009 and 2010 has justed to 7.6% at the third Quarter of 2009, been that emerging economies have entered from 9.2% at the beginning of the year and it recovery much faster and easier than ad- is projected to remain stable in 2010 as well. vanced ones. This is particularly the case for From the fourth Quarter of 2009 industrial China and India, which escaped a severe output has been improving slowly and con- recession. With considerable help from its sumption has been regaining lost ground, but robust fiscal position and the overall health of real wage reductions and tight credits have its banking sector, China has initiated large caused non-tradable goods production to policy stimuli (up to 5% of its GDP in 2009) continue stagnating. At the same time the and successfully managed to overcome the credit market is not expected to ease fall of its exports, which in 2009 were re- throughout 201016. duced by 30% compared to 2008. This was mainly achieved through boosting domestic In economically advanced countries the pace demand (private credit rose by 25% in the of economic recovery has been considerably first half of 2009) and undertaking major slower. In the U.S. the financial situation has infrastructure and industrial retooling pro- been stabilising throughout 2009 and the first jects. This led to an 8.4% GDP growth in Quarter of 2010. GDP contraction has been 2009 and a continued expansion in 201012. slowing down from -6.4% at the beginning of 2009 to a 2.2% increase in the third Quar- In fact, China has been the driving force be- ter17. On an annual basis, the U.S. economy hind the recovery of the entire SE Asia re- is expected to contract by 2.45% in 2009, gion, where capital flows resumed in 2009 but a modest growth of 1.5% is expected for and markets rose sharply. Nevertheless, 2010. Although economic stabilisation is given the slow pace of recovery in advanced likely to continue, growth will probably not economies, it remains unclear whether Chi- exceed the rate of 2% in the medium turn. In nese growth will be able to sustain itself be- the mean time, credit conditions remain un- yond 2010 without an adequate increase in certain and unemployment has risen to the exports. At the same time, boosting domestic highest rates since the early 1980s (in 2009 demand by prolonged credit growth may it is expected to reach 10% on an annual increase inflationary pressure in the medium basis). The greatest challenge for the U.S. term. The Indian economy grew at a some- economy in 2010 is to prevent high cyclical what slower pace in 2009 and 2010 as well, unemployment rates from becoming struc- at an annualised rate a little above 6%. tural, as well as addressing long-term imbal- Growth has been facilitated by adequate ances in public, corporate and household monetary policies and a relatively smaller expenditures18. dependence of the Indian economy on ex- ports13. In Europe, recovery seems to be more slug- gish than in the U.S. The Euro zone did not In 2009, Russia experienced an estimated emerge from recession before the end of 8.7% contraction of its GDP14. This develop- 2009, and it is predicted to attain growth ment was the result not only of the world rates less than 1% in 2010. Further growth credit crisis, but also of the fall of the oil price will only be attained gradually and in the that occurred. Low oil prices caused a consid- medium-term. Unemployment reached 10% erable surge in capital flows in the first half of in 2009 and might reach 12% in 2010. Credit 2009, which led to an important 5.9% depre- in the Euro zone remains tight due to the ciation of the ruble, but this trend was re- greater role of banks in the financing system, versed in the 4th Quarter, following a rise in as well as major exposures to cross-border oil prices and a considerable increase in ex- risks regarding banking activity in Eastern change and gold reserves15. Domestic de- Europe. Emerging EU economies, such as those of the Baltic States, Bulgaria and Ro- 11 International Monetary Fund. World Economic Outlook: mania, have been hit particularly hard by the Sustaining the Recovery. Washington D.C.: IMF, October crisis, whereas countries with moderate cur- 2009: 46–50. 12 rent account deficits or surpluses have shown Ibid: 11+72. 19 The World Bank. China Quarterly Update. Beijing: WB, more resilience . In 2010, public expenses in Nov. 2009: 1–7. 13 International Monetary Fund. World Economic Outlook: 71–75. 16 Ibid: 2–9. 14 The World Bank. Global Economic Prospects 2010. WB: 17 Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Washington D.C., 21 Jan. 2010: 17. Commerce. Press Release: GDP 3rd Quarter 2009 15 International Monetary Fund. World Economic Outlook: Estimate. BEA: Washington D.C., 22 Dec. 2009. 79–82. 18 International Monetary Fund. World Economic Outlook: The World Bank. Russian Economic Report No 20. 67–71. Moscow: WB, Nov. 2009: 2+9. 19 Ibid: 75–79.
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most EU countries are deteriorating sharply, A major development in 2009 and 2010 was and addressing this problem will be of great the rapid deterioration of the security situa- importance. Containing the rise of unem- tion in Afghanistan. Taliban insurgents con- ployment and supporting demand under strict siderably improved their operational and lo- budgetary restrictions will prove a major gistics capabilities in the aforementioned challenge in 2010 for most European coun- period, resulting in a record high number of tries. casualties for the ISAF coalition forces in the country. These amounted to 520 dead in In Japan, stabilisation started in the second 2009, a significant increase from 295 in half of 2009 and continues in 201020. After a 2008. During the same period, U.S. forces steep GDP drop (-11.9%) in the first Quarter casualties marked a 100% increase, to 31624. of 2009, modest growth (2.7–1.3%) returned The bulk of fatalities was attributed to impro- during the rest of the year and continued in vised explosive device attacks, which were up 201021. Unemployment rates throughout the by 60% from the year before. Civilian casual- aforementioned period remained high by ties also increased by 12%25. The total num- Japanese standards, hovering above 5% on ber of such incidents exceeded 7,200 from an annual basis in 2009, while at the same 4,169 in 2008, whereas their average explo- time real wages continued to decline. Corpo- sive charges and destructive capability dou- rate and bank profits were substantially re- bled26. duced and mild deflationary pressures ap- peared on prices. Business investment con- For the first time since August 2009, Taliban tinued falling and uncertainty about the fu- insurgents launched a series of suicide at- ture of the economic outlook remained high tacks inside Kabul. On 28 October 2009 a among both investors and consumers. Never- United Nations personnel residence came theless, industrial output has been increasing under an attack that resulted in the loss of 5 since the third Quarter of 2009, profiting U.N. staff members. As a direct result of this mostly from the rise of regional commercial incident, more than 340 U.N. personnel activity, and consumption has been increas- members were relocated outside the country, ingly showing signs of improvement22. In seriously downgrading the U.N. assistance general terms, recovery in Japan is following mission’s performance in the area27. Taliban the slow and gradual path witnessed in the forces also resumed their intimidation tactics rest of the advanced economies, with the against the local population with a series of addition of a relevantly elevated deflation targeted assassination attempts. The overall risk23. deterioration in security conditions crippled the United Nation’s humanitarian aid and reconstruction programmes28. 1.2 Political Developments Security conditions in the country were also affected by mounting political instability. On 19 November 2009, Afghanistan’s President 1.2.1 Security H. Karzai was finally inaugurated for a second term. This development ended two months Security is a field in which space systems are political turmoil between the President and vital. For the purposes of this report, security his principal political opponent Dr. Abdullah is defined in its traditional narrow definition over the latter’s accusations of electoral fraud related to defence and the ability to effec- in the 20 August presidential ballot. President tively engage in military operations. A Karzai was proclaimed the winner of the elec- broader definition of security is briefly dis- toral process only because his opponent re- cussed in section 1.2.5. Satellite systems are fused to participate in the second round. identified as key enablers of military capabili- However, the run-up to the finalisation of the ties. These space applications include image result increased civilian unrest and paralysed and electronic surveillance gathering, com- the government. Consequently, public confi- munications, meteorological and naviga- tion/positioning data, among others. 24 “iCasualties.org: Operation Enduring Freedom.” 22 May 2010.
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dence in the country’s reconstruction and nally, it particularly took notice of the contin- future also waned29. ued operation of the enrichment facilities in Natanz32. In the midst of these negative developments, the U.S. President announced on 1 December In a considerable departure from its past 2009 a new strategy for Afghanistan. He an- reports, the IAEA explicitly claimed for the nounced the dispatch of an additional 30,000 first time that Iran could have possibly troops reinforcement to the country. At the started the development of a nuclear payload same time, President Obama reiterated his for a missile. It also went on to give specific plan to begin the gradual withdrawal of U.S. technical details of Iran’s possible nuclear forces from the country by July 2011. The weapons development capabilities, based on additional forces proposed would increase its information33. annual war costs by $30 billion, or almost by 30 50% in comparison to the current budget . 1.2.2 Environment The new U.S. policy in Afghanistan followed from a comprehensive strategy document Space applications have an important role in released on 27 March 2009. The new strategy environment monitoring and protection. widened the scope of U.S. objectives in the Space assets are uniquely positioned to offer region by including neighbouring Pakistan in a global perspective on climate change. They its scope of operations. It also recognised often also represent a common multinational that the Taliban principal logistics and com- platform for collecting relevant meteorologi- mand posts were concentrated in Pakistan’s cal and environmental data. This characteris- border regions with Afghanistan. The pro- tic makes them ideal promoters of interna- posed action plan included disrupting terrorist tional understanding and cooperation in this operations inside Pakistan, while at the same field. time increasing military and political assis- Climate change and the concerted interna- tance to that country. Supporting Pakistan tional effort to control it continued to be the would also involve increased financial coop- main issue in environmental policy in 2009 eration and government building measures to and 2010. Global warming remains a major promote democratic rule in that country. The threat not only to the environment, but also new U.S. policy also called for state building to long-term economic growth and prosperity actions in Afghanistan itself, including a new worldwide. It can potentially disrupt food strategic communications and joint civilian- supply, cause major humanitarian catastro- 31 military counterinsurgency strategy . phes, destabilise developing countries and 34 Another issue that continued to provoke ten- consequently endanger their population . sions on the international scene was the ne- From a political point of view the most impor- gotiations regarding the Iranian nuclear pro- tant development was the UN Climate gramme. On 18 February 2010, the Interna- Change Conference held in Copenhagen from
tional Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) pub- 7 to 18 December 2009. Its proceedings in- th lished its latest regular two month revue of cluded the 15 conference of the 193 parties Iran’s atomic energy related activities, in the to the UN Framework Convention on Climate framework of the relevant U.N. Security Change (UNFCCC/COP) and the fifth meeting Council resolutions. In this document, the of the 189 parties that have adhered to the 35 IAEA clearly stated that Iran was not cooper- 1997 Kyoto Protocol (CMP) . The Conference ating in the verification of the peaceful pur- was attended by more than 15,000 partici- poses of its nuclear programme. Further- pants, including 119 Heads of State on its more, the Agency found that Iran had failed to meet the requirements set by the U.N. 32 International Atomic Energy Agency. Implementation of Security Council in order to provide assur- the NPT Safeguards Agreement and Relevant Provisions ances for the nature of its programme. Fi- of Security Council Resolutions 1737 (2006), 1747 (2007), 1803 (2008), and 1835 (2008) in the Islamic Republic of Iran. Vienna: IAEA 18 Feb. 2010. 29 United Nations Secretary General. The Situation in 33 Ibid: 8. Afghanistan…: 1–5. 34 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate 30 The White House. President Obama Statement: The Change-Secretariat. “Fact Sheet: Copenhagen-Why is a Way Forward in Afghanistan. Washington D.C: 1 Dec. Deal so Important?” UNFCCC Fact Sheet Nov. 2009. 23 2009. May 2010.
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final day, and it attracted unprecedented of 2010 in Mexico City, after two preparatory public attention and press coverage36. The negotiating sessions in Bonn in 31 May and conference’s principal aim was to discuss 11 June41. appropriate measures against global climate In addition to this, the 3rd World Climate Con- change that will have to be implemented ference (WCC-3) was held by the World Me- before the Kyoto Protocol’s provisions expire teorological Organisation (WMO) in Geneva in 201237. between 31 August and 4 September 2009, Despite the great expectations nourished almost 20 years after the last one in 1990. before the conference and the fact that all Participation included an expert panel as well participants acknowledged the urgent nature as high-level government representatives. Its of the measures that had to be taken, pro- main scope was to enhance international gress during the conference was modest and cooperation and global capabilities in the field decisions did not arrive until its very last day. of climate information and weather predic- The conference’s main declared objectives tion. In a way, it gave scientists the opportu- were: to set new long-term emission reduc- nity to review climate related scientific prac- tion rates for 2020; to adopt appropriate tices ahead of the Copenhagen Conference. mitigation actions for developing countries; WWC-3 concluded its work with a high-level to initiate a long-term funding commitment political declaration and a separate confer- from developed countries to sustain these ence statement42. Participants agreed on es- actions; and to set up an appropriate institu- tablishing a Global Framework for Climate tional framework for addressing the needs of Services, in order to coordinate and developing countries38. The key objective was strengthen production and availability of cli- to cut down emissions to 25–40% lower than mate prediction services worldwide. They also 1990 levels by the year 202039. decided to set up an independent task force of experts that will deliver recommendations Reaching an agreement proved difficult due on the structure of this Framework within 12 to the different views between developed and months. These recommendations will then be developing countries. The final result of the presented for adoption at the next WCC Con- deliberations was the “Copenhagen Accord”, ference in 2011. an agreement for industrialised countries to voluntarily limit their emissions by 2020 and At the EU level several initiatives were taken for developing countries to muster their ef- by the Swedish Presidency in the first half of forts to reduce emissions and to communi- 2009. The key subject was preparing the EU’s cate their results every two years. All volun- participation in the Copenhagen conference. tary pledges to limit emissions were listed in EU policy objectives for the conference were the accord by the end of January40. It was ambitious. They focused on making consider- also agreed that the accord would be re- able progress towards a new comprehensive viewed before 2015. Raising funds among and binding global treaty to replace the Kyoto developed countries for appropriate actions Protocol after 2012. In order to achieve this, also proved more difficult than expected. EU members looked forward to obtaining However, a dedicated fund (the “Copenhagen tangible emission reduction commitments Green Climate Fund”) was established to from all conference participants; assuring support immediate action against climate public finance to implement these reductions change over the next three years, with a total until 2020; adopting a new institutional budget of $30 billion. At the same time, the framework for international cooperation on long-term goal of raising $100 billion by 2020 climate change; and implementing a strict was also reiterated. The next UNFCCC con- follow-up process to monitor the progress ference is scheduled to take place by the end made43. In spite of the fact that the EU offered to 36 Ibid. contribute €2.4 billion by 2012 to meet its United Nations Framework Convention on Climate funding obligations, its expectations for the Change-Secretariat. “Copenhagen United Nations Climate Change Conference Ends with Political Agreement to Cap Temperature Rise Reduce Emissions and Raise Finance”. 41 Ibid. UNFCCC Press Release 19 Dec. 2009. 42 World Meteorological Organisation. World Climate
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conference were not met. Although the con- particularly cold winter in the northern hemi- ference’s decisions were considered a positive sphere drove the prices up by the end of first step, emission reductions rates were 2009. This trend continued in 2010, fuelled considered insufficient, long-term financing mostly by economic recovery in SE Asia, as was not secured and the overarching objec- well as by increasing investment flows to tive of negotiating a new legally binding commodity assets. Oil supply has been rising treaty was not attained44. However, EU Mem- mildly throughout this period (roughly by 0.4 ber States associated themselves with the billion barrels) while demand was declining. Accord’s provision for a 20% emission reduc- As a result, commercial oil inventories remain tion and offered to increase cuts to 30%, if significantly high, to approximately 60 days developing countries would agree to contrib- of forward cover. This development, in con- ute to gas emissions as well45. Other key en- junction with rising demand in 2010, has vironment policy objectives during the Swed- driven spot and freight prices up49. ish presidency included protecting biodiver- Although oil demand is increasing in develop- sity and promoting the EU’s transition into an ing countries and it has stopped decreasing in eco-efficient economy based on renewable developed ones, global oil consumption re- energy sources, energy-efficient systems and mains considerably lower than pre-crisis lev- adequate community planning. Eco-efficient els (app. -2.3mb/d) and this trend is ex- economy in particular is now seen as a possi- pected to continue throughout 2010. The ble competitive edge for EU that will enable it continued upward trend of the oil market to develop new technologies and to become price in spite of sufficient production and more self-sufficient in terms of energy and increasing inventory volumes is mainly at- natural resources supply46. tributed to increasing investment flows in commodities markets. In fact, the financial 1.2.3 Energy sector’s exposure to energy commodity as- sets rose by 70% in the period between De- Space systems can contribute from orbit to cember 2009 and January 2010. Since oil the exploitation of Earth’s energy resources. production fundamentals do not support Imaging satellites help determine surface these prices, we might be facing the possibil- resources and underground deposits alike. ity of a downward price spiral in the second Communication and space observation satel- half of 201050. lites help operate and monitor fossil energy transport corridors. Space applications pro- In the medium-term these trends are not vided motivation for solar panel technology expected to change. Oil consumption will not improvements that are now at the forefront attain pre-crisis levels before 2012, provided of renewable energy technologies. With re- that recovery continues. In OECD countries it cent developments in solar energy gathering will remain particularly sluggish and global satellites, space could become a source of consumption will mainly be sustained by SE energy for terrestrial use itself. Asia’s emerging economies. Almost 80% of the projected increase in oil consumption In 2009 and 2010 energy demand began to until 2030 is expected to come from these rise again. After a turbulent 2008, when oil countries, and the transportation sector will prices fluctuated violently, oil prices in 2009 be the driving force behind this demand. and the first half of 2010 have stabilised to Supply is expected to rise modestly, mostly 47 roughly $75–82 bbl . This price level repre- thanks to increasing output by non-OPEC sents a 15 month high and a significant rise countries. This increase will be the result of 48 from December 2008’s $33bbl . Rising oil exploitation of non-conventional oil sources demand in the developing countries and a (e.g. Canadian oil sands). Although OECD countries’ supply is expected to decline, natu- ral gas and renewable sources’ exploitation 44 Swedish Presidency of the European Union. “Summary of the Work in the Environment Council of 22 Dec. 2009”. will compensate for this loss and overall EU Presidency: 23 Dec. 2009. spare oil supply capacity will remain ade- 45 EU Council. “EU Associates Itself with Copenhagen quate. Nevertheless, since current price lev- Accord and Submits Emissions Reduction Target“. EU els do not encourage investment decisions in Council Press Release 5762/10. Brussels: 28 Jan. 2010. oil supply, OPEC countries are projected to 46 Swedish Presidency of the European Union. “Summary of the Work…” slightly increase their share of the market EU Commission. “Options for an EU Vision and Target for and a new price boom cannot be excluded in Biodiversity Beyond 2010”. EU Commission, Brussels: 19 the medium-term51. Jan. 2010. 47 International Energy Agency. “Oil Market Report 2010” Highlights. Paris: IEA, 15 Jan. 2010.
ESPI Report 23 11 June 2010
Gas prices declined considerably in 2009, due annual consumption rate. At the same time, to limited industrial demand, which dropped new gas suppliers from the Middle East such by up to 10%. Gas-generated power demand, as Qatar and Iran are appearing, although in particular, fell by up to 8% because of its the latter is not expected to become a signifi- position in the merit order. However, cold cant exporter before 201556. weather has kept domestic and commercial In Europe, the early 2009 gas supply crisis heating demand strong and this fact has par- left its mark on the entire year and well into tially compensated for the decline in indus- 2010 as well, making paramount the issue of trial use52. Price fluctuations varied from mar- strategic gas supply security. The crisis un- ket to market. U.S. prices were relatively derlined chronic interconnectivity, reverse stable in 2009, because they had already flow and storage capacity deficiencies in adjusted to the crisis in late 2008. Oil-based many European countries, especially in Cen- prices in Continental Europe and Japan tral and Eastern Europe. Better and time- dropped sharply in 2009 as a result of the efficient cooperation among European coun- 2008 crisis, due to the fact that inbuilt time tries in this area has become a key subject of lags in supply contracts did not allow them to discussion in 2009 and 2010. The objective adjust earlier. Gas prices in Europe, in par- for the EU in particular is to enhance energy ticular, remained considerably higher (up to security through varying gas sources and 100%) than those in the U.S. where produc- routes, increasing storage capacity and diver- tion actually increased in 2009, mostly sifying electrical power sources. However, thanks to unconventional gas production implementing these policies will require con- growth. This development actually allowed siderable funding in the short-term that is not U.S. liquid natural gas shipment to be di- guaranteed in the current financial condi- verted to the Pacific market and to fuel tions. Furthermore, diversifying power supply booming industrial demand there. Neverthe- by embracing renewable energy sources less, U.S. future gas output remains one of might actually increase gas consumption in the main uncertainties concerning future the medium-term, as environmentally poor market behaviour53. power sources will be abandoned and renew- Another major development in gas markets in able ones will not yet be able to entirely sub- 2009 and 2010 was the dramatic increase in stitute for them57. LNG supply capacity. Many LNG production In conclusion, global and especially European development plans started production in energy policies in 2009 and 2010 are facing 2009, leading to an unprecedented increase multiple challenges with often contradictory in output capacity (over 370 billion cubic solutions. Improving environmental efficiency metres). Excess supply capacity will probably will necessitate adequate funding that is diffi- test the market’s flexibility and resilience in cult in times of financial insecurity. Limited 201054. As with oil, the main issue will be investment will result in greater dependency inadequate investment for future projects, on imported gas supply in the medium-term under the adverse current financial condi- and limited energy security. Advanced tions. With the pace of economic recovery economies will have to improve energy effi- remaining very slow in advanced economies, ciency, while at the same time coping with any prediction for future LNG demand is the price fluctuations caused by booming risky. As a result, most supply development demand in emerging economies. Increasing projects are likely to be put on hold for a gas demand in SE Asia combined with stable while, thus creating a shortage of new output or declining demand in the U.S. (and possibly capacity after 2012. Obviously, the longer the Europe) will raise international pressure to recovery takes, the greater the LNG supply disassociate their price index58. In general, shortage will be in the medium-term and the long-term policies designed to improve the higher its price55. As gas use in advanced environmental impact and efficiency of en- economies is stagnating, developing econo- ergy resources will decrease energy security mies like China or India are emerging as ma- in the medium-term by consolidating the jor gas users. In the medium-term, both market power of traditional resource suppli- countries are expected to exceed 100 bcm in ers, such as Russia and the Middle East coun- tries. Consequently, an unprecedented level 52 International Energy Agency. Natural Gas Market of international cooperation, prolonged in- Review 2009-Executive Summary. Paris: IEA, 29 June vestments and strict market transparency 2009.
ESPI Report 23 12 June 2010 Space Policies, Issues and Trends in 2009/2010
measures will be indispensable, in order to ucts that were put in place at the peak of the tackle all of these issues simultaneously. crisis64. Demand for food commodities is gen- erally insensitive to the cycles of economic activity. As a result, agriculture has been 1.2.4 Resources more resilient than other sectors of the econ- Space applications can also be useful for ac- omy to the effects of the global economic commodating international trade and improv- crisis. Agricultural commodity prices are ing the exploitation efficiency of other natural therefore expected to rise modestly but 65 resources as well. Imaging and meteorologi- steadily throughout 2010 . cal satellites can make agricultural output In spite of a relatively stable price environ- bigger and more reliable. Furthermore, com- ment, price volatility in the commodities munication satellites are indispensable for market remained high in 2009 and the first making international business transactions months of 2010. This has proven to be a and payments, which continue to grow in major trend in the aftermath of the financial today’s globalised commercial environment. crisis and it is mainly attributed to two fac- After a sharp drop in 2008 and in the first tors: the volatility of the dollar exchange rate half of 2009, international trade and com- through most of this period and the increas- modity prices began to rise again from the ing “financialisation” of commodity markets. third Quarter of 2009. This development was As commodity prices are typically denomi- principally due to industrial output recovery nated in dollars, its exchange rate has a in the emerging economies of Asia, and espe- bearing on their prices by intensifying pro- cially China. However, the slow pace of eco- cyclical price movements. For example, dollar nomic recovery in developed countries is still depreciation in the second half of 2009 was 66 limiting commodity demand and pushing accompanied by a steady increase in prices . prices down. Overall global trade in 2009 For this reason, real commodity prices fluc- contracted by approximately 17.6%59. As a tuation has been much more moderate than result of weak recovery and weak base ef- nominal prices. fects, commodity prices are not expected to The second trend is related to the increasing reach pre-crisis levels before 2011 at the participation of financial investors in com- 60 earliest . For 2010, global trade growth is modity futures exchanges, in order to diver- 61 not expected to exceed 4.2% . Low industrial sify their portfolios and hedge against possi- production levels caused metal prices to ble inflation risks. Recent statistical evidence plummet in 2009 (aluminium: -1%, copper: - indicates that financial investors accelerated 9%). Chinese demand supported price levels and even amplified pro-cyclical price move- considerably, mostly thanks to extensive ments, especially in food commodities67. This restocking. If Chinese demand were ex- was particularly evident in cases where cluded, metals price decline would have ex- placements were purely speculative and 62 ceeded 20% . In 2010, the modest price tended to ignore the commodity market fun- raise is expected to continue. In general, damental values. Consequently, their in- demand from China had a rather stabilising volvement may be considered partially re- effect on commodity prices throughout sponsible for both the boom in commodity 63 2009 . prices before the financial crisis and their Although agricultural products declined by rapid decline afterwards, at least to the ex- 22% in 2009 compared to their 2008 peak, tent that it cannot be attributed to changes in they still remain almost twice as high as the demand and supply. With financial market lows recorded earlier in the decade. Higher oil movement remaining unpredictable and re- prices and bio fuel demand, together with an covery slow, investor participation in com- increase in stockpiling, contributed to an up- modity markets in 2010 is increasing again ward trend in prices in 2009 and 2010. Lower and with it price volatility as well. In addition production costs, however, helped counter- to this, investor involvement in the commodi- weight this tendency and keep prices stable. ties market complicates price hedging for At the same time, most countries have elimi- traditional commercial users, with all the nated export restrictions in agricultural prod- negative effects that this could have on fu- ture commodities supply68.
59 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development. Global Economic Prospects 2010. Washington DC: World Bank, 21 Jan. 2010: 37. 64 The International Bank for Reconstruction and 60 Ibid: 31–34. Development. Global Economic Prospects…: 34. 61 Ibid: 37. 65 United Nations Conference on Trade and Development. 62 Ibid: 31–34. Trade and Development Report …: 6–12. 63 United Nations Conference on Trade and Development. 66 Ibid: 10. Trade and Development Report, 2009. Geneva: UNCTD, 7 67 Ibid: 66–74. Sept. 2009: 10. 68 Ibid: 74.
ESPI Report 23 13 June 2010
In conclusion, market speculation in 2009 and prioritised them according to European and 2010 has increased price volatility and needs70. pro-cyclical effects in commodity prices, The panel’s recommendations proposed bet- bringing an element of cyclicality even in ter coordination in the use of existing space markets where it traditionally did not exist, assets through collaborative and multiple such as the food market. This development, uses of space services, information and data. in combination with the fact that agricultural It also stressed the importance of interopera- productivity in poor countries is still short of bility and the creation of common European keeping pace with increasing population, operational picture and information distribu- might create further food emergencies in the tion platforms. It asserted the crucial role of short-term. space based communications, Earth observa- tion and satellite navigation, timing and posi- 1.2.5 Knowledge tioning for European security. In this per- spective the report praised the importance of Space systems play a key role in promoting the Global Monitoring for Environment and scientific research and development in three Security (GMES), Galileo and the European ways. First, they are the means for taking Geostationary Navigation Overlay System scientific discovery beyond the boundaries of (EGNOS) programmes71. our planet, expanding our knowledge of as- tronomy and physics through space explora- In addition to these, the panel devoted par- tion. Second, space assets themselves are ticular attention to the creation of a European very demanding engineering inventions, the Space Situational Awareness (SSA) system. development of which motivates scientific It identified the SSA programme as a major innovation across the board in multiple disci- driving force for technology innovation in plinary fields. Third, by offering worldwide relative fields, such as automated satellite communication services space systems con- operation, formation flying architectures, tribute to the global flow of information and multi-sensor fusion, protection of critical in- the free exchange of scientific knowledge. frastructure and in-orbit networking, among Consequently, they help promote scientific others. Finally, ESRIF recognised that build- cooperation and they distribute its benefits to ing the SSA infrastructure would require a all of mankind. cooperative approach from all stakeholders, including the European Space Agency (ESA), An important step in developing a European the EU Commission and the European De- scientific and innovation policy occurred in fence Agency (EDA)72. December 2009, when the European Security Research and Innovation Forum delivered its In conclusion ESRIF adopted a holistic ap- final report. Its plenary council of 65 mem- proach to security, calling for making security bers from 32 countries was mandated by the related innovation an EU priority, developing European Union Commission and the 27 EU common European rules and procedures and Member States in September 2007 to pro- exploiting knowledge synergies for security pose a future European Security Research purposes whenever possible. Its key recom- and Innovation Agenda (ESRIA) for the next mendation was that technological innovation 20 years. During its two years deliberations, and security planning should interact system- the panel was supported by more than 600 atically, with the latter being an integral part experts from various government and indus- of the former. try sectors, making it the only high-level initiative of its kind in Europe69. 1.2.6 Mobility In conducting its research, ESRIF set up dif- Mobility is another activity area revolution- ferent working groups to investigate future ised by space technologies and their applica- technologies that could have an impact on tions. Maritime commerce accounts for the European security, including one on Situ- bulk of global trade, whereas airplanes carry ational Awareness and the Role of Space in it. most of the world’s passenger traffic. Space Its report identified key capability areas assets are indispensable to both, as they where space systems would be indispensable. provide meteorological, navigation and com- These included Integrated Communication munication services that make sea and air Networks, Information Management and De- transport safer and cheaper. cision Support Systems, Command and Con- trol etc. The report also listed a number of The transport sector continued to suffer from required space based systems that would be the effects of the global financial crisis in essential to the future EU security capabilities
70 Ibid: 155–166. 69 European Security Research and Innovation Forum. 71 Ibid: 166–169. ESRIF Final Report. Brussels, Dec. 2009: 11. 72 Ibid.
ESPI Report 23 14 June 2010 Space Policies, Issues and Trends in 2009/2010
2009 and 2010. As the crisis has proved, the this continent. Re-routing shipments around global economy works in a completely inter- the Cape of Good Hope alone is estimated to dependent and concerted fashion, to the generate over $7.5 billion of additional ship- point where a crisis in any place can affect ping costs annually. At the same time, insur- the entire system. As the transport sector is ance costs for ships passing through Suez the epitome of this global trade interconnec- currently stand at 40 times their normal tivity and interdependence, it was hit particu- price, because of the war risk coverage in- larly hard by the current economic crisis. As cluded77. The problem has taken such pro- supply and demand fell sharply, the transport portions that on 2 December 2009 the Inter- of materials and goods followed suit73. Fur- national Maritime Organisation Assembly in thermore, the financial crisis put a strain on London adopted a resolution calling for more the credit flow that is essential to interna- international cooperation in the fight against tional commerce transactions, with several piracy, quicker adoption of the Djibouti Code banks refusing even to issue letters of credit. of Conduct by all states in the region, and an According to some sources, unmet demand enhanced role for the United Nations78. for trade financing in developing economies is Air transport was equally struck by the crisis’ estimated between $100 and $300 billion74. repercussions. According to ICAO, 2009 saw Maritime transport that represents the bulk of the worst performance of airline traffic in global transport (90%) suffered the greatest history. International passenger traffic de- blow. The financial crisis put an end to a con- clined by approximately 3.9% and domestic stant growth in maritime trade since 1993, traffic by 1.8%. However, domestic flights one of the longest in recorded maritime his- traffic decreased primarily in advanced tory. The timing of the crisis was particularly economies, with emerging economies main- adverse, as ship owners had enjoyed the taining a positive albeit modest growth rate, most profitable financial results of all time especially in SE Asia and the Middle East79. In before the crisis, and had an unprecedented Europe and North America, low cost carriers number of vessels under order, accompanied performed somewhat better than more tradi- by an equal increase in shipyard capacity75. tionally operating airlines. A modest increase During the last 12 months decreased mari- of 3.3% in passenger traffic is expected for time activity has led to a wave of cancella- 2010 according to some observers, but full tions of ship orders, an unprecedented level recovery will have to wait until 2011 at the of distress demolitions (projected to reach earliest. Furthermore, cargo traffic also con- 15–18% of world fleet capacity in 2010) and tracted by 15% in 2009, including in develop- an almost six-fold contraction in shipping ing regions of the world. It is noteworthy that revenues. If these estimates materialise, all air traffic activity contraction in 2009 even sectors of the maritime industry will suffer exceeded that of the 9/11 aftermath80. from considerable unemployment. A further This drop in airline traffic translated into ap- medium-term consequence of the financial proximately $9 billion revenue loses in 2009. crisis for sea trade could be the appearance As with the shipping industry, bank financing of protectionist measures that would further became scarce and customer confidence hinder world trade76. waned. Most analysts agree that the picture Another challenge for the maritime industry will remain unchanged in 2010 as well, on a in the past 12 months has been the increased yearly basis. The biggest challenge ahead for number of piracy incidents, especially off the airline companies is to manage excessive Somalia coast. Although international military passenger capacity, which might lead to an presence in the region has somewhat in- increasing liberalisation of the market world- creased security, piracy incidents have per- wide and possibly to major job cuts. Cutting sisted. This surge in piracy acts at the Gulf of costs throughout the chain of supply, increas- Aden has generated considerable costs, espe- ing capital flow, abolishing ownership restric- cially for Europe as 80% of shipments that tions and encouraging international regula- pass through the area are coming from or to
77 Ibid: 8–11. 73 United Nations Conference on Trade and Development. 78 International Maritime Organization Assembly, 26th Review of Maritime Transport 2009. Geneva: UNCTD, Session. Piracy and Armed Robbery Against Ships in 2009: 3.
ESPI Report 23 15 June 2010
tory convergence will probably be the keys of be exiting the crisis at a different pace. The this liberalisation concept that is becoming relative pace at which countries will recover known under the name of “Open Aviation”81. will also determine their power and influence on the international scene. Economies that have some kind of “edge” seem to respond better to the crisis conditions. The first in line 1.3 The Financial Crisis and for recovery seem to be countries with rich Its Consequences for the natural resources, especially in the Middle East. Russia could also potentially fall under Space Sector this category. Second are countries with huge internal markets and a relatively cheap work- As demonstrated by the global economic and ing force, like China, India, or Brazil. Third political outlook presented above, the time are countries with strong industrial output period under consideration has been marked and accumulated profits from positive com- by the consequences of the financial crisis mercial balances. Finally, the last to recover that started in 2008. 2009 saw the spreading would be countries that have relied heavily of these consequences from the financial on the financial and services sector for their sector to the entire economy. In 2010, we development. are witnessing the geopolitical repercussions of the economic downturn. In addition to this, the different pace in which recovery comes in different parts of the world One resilient characteristic of the 12 months will probably exacerbate global and regional in question has been the quicker recovery of antagonisms and increase the centrifugal emerging economies, by comparison to de- forces in the international relations system. veloped ones. The main cause behind this In regions where recovery is more or less fact seems to be the emerging economies’ homogenous, as in SE Asia, regional eco- greater adaptability to the crisis conditions. nomic cooperation and commercial relations In particular, when faced with rapidly de- will develop further. In regions where the creasing demand for their manufactured pace of recovery differs from country to products, developing economies were fast in country, as in Europe, the resulting economic directing a greater part of their output to disparity could impede further regional eco- regional and domestic demand. Developed nomic integration and it might even encour- economies apparently did not react as age protectionist measures. In general, the quickly. One possible explanation could be crisis has created a very fluid and unpredict- that in their case regional and domestic de- able situation on the international scene, mand was already saturated before the crisis, where the relative economic as well as geo- because of their greater degree of eco- political value of countries and even entire nomic/social development and regional eco- regions can change rapidly. nomic integration (as in the case of Europe, for example). In other words, the current As far as space activities are concerned, the economic crisis may be interpreted as a financial crisis seems to have two distinct slowdown of global economic integration in effects. On the up side, the commercial space favour of a more regional one, especially in sector could profit from the various financial the case of regions where principal emerging stimulus funding that governments distribute countries cluster, such as SE Asia and the to the private sector to boost recovery. Some Middle East. Consequently, the different pace of these measures for example include com- in which developed and developing countries munication infrastructure development, which exit the crisis may accelerate the already could certainly involve satellite communica- evident slow migration of the global economic tion services operators. On the down side, centre from the western edge of the Eurasian the credit crunch has made banks more risk Continent to the eastern one. wary and investing in space systems still entails a great deal of development and op- The above conclusion implies that the eco- erational risks. nomic crisis will certainly have global geopo- litical consequences of a currently unpredict- The greatest difficulties, however, might be able nature and magnitude. No country has encountered in the public funding of space been left untouched by the crisis and they activities. After last year’s generous recapi- have all entered it at approximately the same talisation aid to financial institutions failed to time. However, each one of them seems to keep the crisis from spreading to the “real” economy, public opinion in developed coun- tries may become increasingly sceptical of 81 Giovanni Bisignani. ”State of the Air Transport Industry”. indiscriminate government spending. International Air Transport Association Annual General Meeting. Kuala Lumpur, 8 Jun. 2009. In the face of rising unemployment, people
ESPI Report 23 16 June 2010 Space Policies, Issues and Trends in 2009/2010
is directed to creating jobs and mitigating the In order for the space sector stakeholders to effects of the crisis to the “real” economy. In successfully avert such a development, they this context, space programmes that have would have to engage public opinion more high development costs, a slow technological than ever before. Explaining to people how maturity process and long-term benefits, space activities produce concrete financial could be considered as superfluous in the and social benefits that are worthwhile should face of other, more urgent fiscal needs. In become a principal task for all actors in- this sense, expenses that have no immediate volved. Furthermore, future space pro- effect on economic recovery could come un- grammes should demonstrate their capacity der public scrutiny, and space budgets could to produce such positive results for society fall under this category. even from their conceptual phase of devel- opment.
ESPI Report 23 17 June 2010
2. Global Space Sector Size and Developments
In the following chapter, there will be a brief commercial revenues is provided in para- discussion of space related public budgets graph 2.3. and commercial revenues. This should allow for a quantitative assessment of the overall market value and financial performance of space activities in the last 12 months. How- 2.2 Overview of Institutional ever, providing an accurate estimate of global Space Budgets space activities’ financial and market figures is a complicated task. In the absence of in- The total institutional spending on space in ternationally uniform standards, most coun- 2009 can be estimated to be approximately tries and space research institutions have $67.8 billion, a figure which shows a nominal adopted slightly different ways of categoris- increase of 9% compared to 200883. This ing and distributing funding for space activi- space spending is comprised of $36 billion in ties. The relative lack of transparency in cer- civil expenditures (or 53.1% of the total) and tain government space programmes, such as $31.8 billion in defence expenditures (or military space projects, further complicates 46.9%). Consequently, the share remained calculations. Commercial companies on the virtually the same compared to last year’s other hand publish their financial figures figures. Out of the estimated $31.8 billion of regularly, but not in a uniform and synchro- defence related space expenditures world- nised way that would allow direct horizontal wide, $28.7 billion were spent by the United industry comparisons. Punctual industrial and States, representing a share of 90% and market developments in the past 12 months indicating a minor percentage decrease com- are further discussed in chapter 5. pared to the year before. These funds came from the Department of Defence (DoD), the National Reconnaissance Office (NRO), the 2.1 Global Space Budgets National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA) and other government entities. It and Revenues should be borne in mind that not all relevant funding is made public, resulting in a degree Although it was not clear if the trend of in- of uncertainty regarding the exact figures of creasing institutional space spending would expenditures on defence space activities. continue in times of financial crisis, it can be Adding up civil and defence space expendi- observed that the previous year’s trend per- tures, the United States had the biggest insti- sisted during the last 12 months. The institu- tutional space budget in 2009, spending tional spending on space activities is esti- $48.8 billion ($20 billion civil expenditures mated to have reached $68 billion. A more and $28.7 billion defence expenditures). The detailed view on institutional budgets can be total U.S. public space budget constituted found in the following paragraph 2.2. 72% of the global institutional spending in In terms of commercial revenues of space 2009. The next largest space budget does activities, the Space Report 2010 indicates not belong to a state but to the European the total revenue of commercial satellite ser- Space Agency, which coordinates civilian vices to have been about $91 billion compris- space programmes on behalf of its Member ing telecommunications, Earth observation States. ESA’s budget in 2009 reached ap- and positioning services. The revenue of proximately $4.8 billion. The next largest space-related commercial infrastructure in- national space budgets are furnished by Ja- cluding manufacturing of spacecrafts and in- pan ($3.0 billion), Russia ($2.8 billion), space platforms, launch services as well as France ($2.8 billion), China ($2.2 billion), ground equipment is estimated to have Germany ($1.4 billion) and Italy ($988 mil- reached around $84 billion. In conclusion, the lion), all a considerable distance from the commercial space revenues of 2009 can be United States. A noteworthy fact was the sum up to $175 billion82. A closer look on the enormous increase in Russian space spending that nearly doubled, compared to the $1.5
82 The Space Foundation. The Space Report 2010. The Space Foundation: Colorado Springs, 2010: 30. 83 Figures in this section are based on Euroconsult data.
ESPI Report 23 18 June 2010 Space Policies, Issues and Trends in 2009/2010
billion spent in 2008. Looking at the rest of of the comparative value assigned to space the European countries, their accumulated spending in different countries. Figure 2.2 total public spending on space activities in shows the space budget share of GDP for 2009 reached $7.2 billion, representing a selected countries84. 10.6% share of global institutional spending The United States devoted the biggest share in 2009. of its GDP to public space expenditure with a Combined, the United States and Europe value of 0.34%. Russia was second with a accounted for almost 83% of the global insti- share of 0.23%, followed by France (0.10%) tutional spending on space in 2009 (Figure and India with a value of 0.07%. Noteworthy 2.1). again is the increase in Russia’s space budget. Whereas in 2008 Russia’s space ef- Consulting the absolute numbers alone only fort consumed 0.08% of their GDP, in 2009 tells one side of the story, as comparisons Russia spent 0.23% of its GDP whose value between countries with different economic remained nearly even. Most European coun- conditions like prices or wages levels can be tries featured values between 0.01% and misleading. It therefore makes sense to re- 0.06% and did not change the share com- late the amounts spent to the GDP or to pared to 2008. population size. This gives a better indication As another relative measure, figure 2.3 shows the institutional spending per capita for selected countries in 2009.
48794 50000
45000
40000
35000
30000
25000
20000 Million U.S. dollars U.S. Million
15000
10000
3012 2837 2712 2246 5000 1406 906 988 618 495 371 208
0
n a a y in a SA a n n taly om da a e U ssi hi I India d a Jap u C an Sp R France ng C Germa Ki uth Kor o ited S n U Figure 2.1: Public space budgets of major space powers in 2009 (Based on Euroconsult data)
84 The data used is the nominal GDP converted to current U.S. dollars using the official exchange rates as indicated by the International Monetary Fund.
ESPI Report 23 19 June 2010
4% 0.35% 3 0.
0.30%
0.25%
0.23%
0.20%
0.15%
0.10% 0.10%
Space effort as a percentage of GDP a percentage as effort Space % 7 0.0
% % 0.06% 5 5 0.05% 0.05% 0.0 0.0 0.04% 0.04% 0.04% 0.03% 0.03% 0.03% 0.03% 2% 2% 0.03% 0.02% 0.02% 0 0 2% 0. 0. 0 0. 0.01% 0.01% 0.01% 0.00%
a n a d n l d ia a rg da en n m i ds nce d in a d n ga an ece USA ssi a In Italy h ou n la do a rway tu l Jap C rmany in g Spa rl o r re re Ru Fr e mb F n AustriaN I G Belgium Ca Swe Ki Po G xe Denmark u d ethe L Switzerlandte South Korea ni e N U Th
Figure 2.2: Public space budgets (selection) as a share of nom. GDP in 2009 (Source: Euroconsult data, IMF85)
160.0
155.1
140.0
120.0
100.0
80.0
60.0
43.5 43.0
Space effort per capita in U.S.dollars in capita per effort Space 40.0 23.7 22.3 20.1 18.8 17.1 16.5 15.0 14.7 13.5 13.3 20.0 11.7 10.0 9.7 8.6 8.3 4.7 4.3 2.4 2.2 1.7 0.8 0.0 l rg a d a n m d a ce um n ny taly d o ria rea ga ce ina di ou pan i ssi I de st lan o u e h n USA ran g rla e ands Spain re I Ja Ru rma rl Ire K C F mb e NorwayCana Sw Finland Au h G Bel itze G Denmark t Port Sw Luxe Nethe Sou The United Kingd
Figure 2.3: Public space budgets per capita (selection) in 2009 (Source: Euroconsult data, UN World Population Prospects86)
85 “Gross domestic product, current prices.” April 2010. International Monetary Fund. 04 May 2010.
ESPI Report 23 20 June 2010 Space Policies, Issues and Trends in 2009/2010
Again, the United States spending more than ble to rate the GDP share of public space $155 per capita in 2009, led by far. France funds against the public space funds per cap- and Luxembourg completed the podium with ita. This is done in figures 2.4 and 2.5, with each spending around $43 per capita. Japan the latter excluding the United States and and a number of European countries spent in Russia to display the other countries more the vicinity of $20 per capita. It is also possi- clearly.
0.40%
0.35% USA
0.30%
0.25%
Russia
0.20%
0.15%
France 0.10% India Space budget as a percentage of GDP Japan ChinaItaly 0.05% Germany South Korea Canada Spain United Kingdom 0.00% -50 0 50 100 150 200
-0.05% Space budget per capita in U.S. dollars
Figure 2.4: Public space budgets as share of GDP mapped against space budgets per capita in 2009 with the bubble size indicating the absolute space budget (Source: Euroconsult data, UN World Population Prospects87)
0.12%
France 0.10%
0.08% India
0.06% Japan
Italy China
0.04% Canada Germany Space budget as a percentage of GDP percentage a budget as Space
South Korea United Kingdom 0.02% Spain
0.00% -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Space budget per capita in U.S. dollars
Figure 2.5: Public space budgets as a share of GDP mapped against space budgets per capita in 2009 with the bubble size indicating the absolute space budget, excluding the U.S. and Russia (Source: Euroconsult data, UN World Population Prospects88)
87 “World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision.” United Nations. Department of Economic and Social Affairs – Population Division. 04 May 2010.
ESPI Report 23 21 June 2010
The United States is unique by evidently ex- 41% of total revenue, Astrium Services for celling in both dimensions, i.e. in the public 38% and Astrium Satellites for 21%. Astrium space fund share of GDP and in space budget Services were severely curtailed by the drop per capita. France and Russia follow. While in the British Pound, as the company’s princi- France is also way ahead of the other coun- pal revenue source is its contract with the UK tries in both dimensions, Russia has made big military to provide the Skynet 5 satellite efforts and now has a very high and remark- communication services90. able position in the share of GDP. Although Earlier, in July, EADS Astrium had reported a Russia nearly doubled the space budget per 29% revenue increase (at €2.19 billion) and capita, it still remains far behind the U.S. and a 22% backlog increase (at €15.6 billion) in has a noteworthy proportional discrepancy the first half of 2009. These results were between per capita spending and GDP share, attributed, among other factors, to the acqui- compared to most other countries that are sition of Spot Image the previous year. As- approximately lined around the same propor- trium’s pre-tax profit margin however was tion. India and China show average values in down to 4.5% from 5.2% the previous year. regard to space budget as a share of GDP, This decrease was attributed by Astrium offi- but lag behind in regard to space budget per cials to restrictions due to government pro- capita. This is probably due to their large curement rules relating to space systems91. population. There is a cluster of countries like Japan, Italy, Germany, and the United King- dom that display comparable values in both Direct Broadcast Services dimensions. Direct Broadcast Services (DBS) refer to di- rect-to-home satellite television and radio broadcasts. This business category mani- 2.3 Overview of Commercial fested considerable improvement in the pe- riod under examination, fuelled mostly by Space Markets growing demand in Europe and emerging markets, such as India. On the contrary, This section presents key elements and fi- demand in the U.S. market showed signs of nancial figures of the principal commercial stagnation, probably because of its rapid space companies, divided into different cate- expansion during recent years, in conjunction gories according to their field of activity. with the financial crisis’ effects. Eutelsat for example, the world’s third-largest 2.3.1 Satellite Services satellite fleet operator, announced a 7.2% revenue increase (at €940.5 million) in the Satellite services revenues, as depicted by 12 month period from June 2008. According the principal market actors’ accounting to the company’s statement, this increase statements, manifested robustness and resil- could sustain 7% annual growth throughout ience to the financial crisis’ effects through- 2012. According to the same sources, satel- out the last 12 months. lites operated by Eutelsat were filled to ca- On 5 November for example, Eutelsat, the pacity (over 97%) and efforts were under- world’s third largest commercial satellite op- taken to reposition some of them in order to erator based on revenue, announced an reduce the fill rate to 80%. Strong television 11.6% increase in revenue in the 3rd Quarter demand in Europe and U.S. government of 2009. This result was mostly attributed to bandwidth demand in the Middle East con- 92 a 46% increase in multi-usage revenues to tributed mostly to these financial results . €22.9 million, driven by increased sales in The second largest satellite fleet operator, the Middle East and Central Asia regions. The SES, also reported record gross profit mar- announcement confirmed that major com- gins in July and announced that it was still on mercial satellite operators were largely un- track with its target to attain a 5% annual 89 touched by the financial crisis . growth rate throughout 2010. However, the On 16 November EADS Astrium also an- company’s recurring revenues in the first half nounced €3.23 billion revenue from the first of 2009 were up by only 2% from last year, three quarters of 2009, an increase of 17.4% to €843 million. These results were attributed over the previous year. Pre-tax profits how- to SES’s lower than expected growth in North ever were down to 4.8% of revenue (€155 America, the opposite of its satisfactory per- million) from 5.1% during the same period in 2008. According to the same announcement, 90 “Astrium Sales on the Rise But Profit Margins Decline”. Astrium Space Transportation accounted for Space News 23 Nov. 2009: 9. 91 De Selding, Peter B. “Astrium Revenue Soars, Margins Dip”. Space News 3 Aug. 2009: 17. 89 De Selding, Peter B. “Eutelsat Fleet Expansion Fuels 92 De Selding, Peter B. “Eutelsat’s 7.2 Percent Revenue Double-Digit Sales Growth”. Space News 9 Nov. 2009: 4. Growth Exceeds Forecast”. Space News 3 Aug. 2009: 6. Space Policies, Issues and Trends in 2009/2010
formance in Western Europe. In total, 81% of gains of £1.8 million, from £1.4 million losses the company’s revenues were attributed to last year. Avanti also reported it was receiv- satellite lease operations93. ing penalty payments from Astrium Satellites for the delay in the delivery of the Hylas On the other hand, satellite services and broadband satellite. Hylas would be the first space hardware provider Thales Alenia Space dedicated broadband satellite in Europe, reported a flat revenue growth rate and a scheduled to be followed by Eutelsat’s Ka-Sat drop in pre-tax profits for the same period. later in 2010. In the meantime, several Euro- New orders however were up 30% from the pean governments have announced financial previous year, at €904.6 million. Company incentives to stimulate commercial satellite officials attributed these mediocre results broadband projects96. partially to the destruction by earthquake of one of its satellite component facilities in The same trend was evident in the U.S. as L‘Aquila, Italy94. well, where in May 2009 the Federal Commu- nications Commission issued a report on the In another development, the Indian space future expansion of broadband services in agency ISRO announced in July an 18% in- rural areas in that country. The report made crease in the number of direct-to-home an appeal to President Obama to increase the (DFH) pay television subscribers over the first project’s budget beyond the $7.2 billion al- quarter of 2009. Although India has been ready allocated to it under the American Re- long considered one of the greatest potential covery and Reinvestment Act of 2009. The DTH markets, its protectionist regulatory report also underlined the importance of sat- environment and excessive import taxes have ellite communications in reaching the pro- limited foreign access to that market. Antrix, ject’s objectives in the near future, reminding ISRO’s commercial arm, has only recently that their use would be indispensable in order introduced non-Indian satellite systems to to achieve full coverage of rural areas. Fi- the market, on the condition that it acts as nally, the Commission urged greater coordi- their reseller95. nation among U.S. federal agencies involved, as well as for a review of all existing broad- Fixed Satellite Services band programmes97. Fixed Satellite Services (FSS) refer to the use In general, the global financial crisis has of spacecrafts that utilise land terminals in tightened credit supply throughout the satel- fixed positions to broadcast. They include lite industry. As a result, national export- broadband internet, communications and credit agencies were stepping in more and network televisions and radio broadcasts. more often to help finance commercial space FSS business demonstrated considerable projects, usually by guaranteeing their bank resistance to the crisis’ consequences. De- loans. In September, for example, France’s mand was fuelled by long-term agreements export-credit agency Coface approved a loan for communication services that were largely guaranty to Gazprom Space Systems of Mos- unaffected by the crisis, as well as a steady cow for acquiring two Yamal-400 communi- increase in satellite broadband internet de- cation satellites. The spacecrafts would be mand. However, risk aversion created among built by Thales Alenia Space and launched service providers by the general financial onboard an Ariane 5 rocket. Coface’s U.S. conditions led some of them to reconsider counterpart, the Export-Import Bank, is also their medium-term plans for broadband engaged in similar schemes. Although both internet development, mainly because of the agencies are set up as private companies considerable up-front investments related to (Coface is owned by Natixis) they often fi- it. nance projects based not only on financial In a 22 September report to the London reasons, but also on the need to support Stock Exchange for example, satellite broad- critical industrial space infrastructure in their 98 band service provider Avanti Communications respective countries . of Britain announced a return to pre-tax prof- In a related development, SES and Eutelsat its during the 12 months ending in June announced on 31 July that they were re- 2009, after reported losses the year before. thinking their involvement in providing S- The company reported £8 million annual band satellite services in Europe. The two revenue (up from £5.9 million) and pre-tax companies had formed the joint venture So-
93 De Selding, Peter B. “SES Sticking with Growth 96 De Selding, Peter B. “Avanti Finances Improve Inspite of Projections Despite Soft Spots”. Space News 3 Aug. 2009: Tardy Satellite”. Space News 28 Sept. 2009: 12. 6. 97 Werner, Debra. “FCC: Stimulus Not Enough for 94 “Thales Orders Rose, Revenue Remained Flat”. Space Broadband Plan”. Space News 1 June 2009: 14. News 3 Aug.2009: 9. 98 De Selding, Peter B. “National Export-Credit Agencies 95 “India Reports Big Rise in Satellite TV Subscribers“. Stepping up Satellite Financing”. Space News 14 Sept. Space News 20 July 2009: 9. 2009: 10.
ESPI Report 23 23 June 2010
laris Mobile and won one of the two European now. This would require operators to fly their Union Commission licences to operate S-band satellites in lower altitudes, at the expense of satellite services in Europe. After a failure in their operating life span. It would also com- deploying an S-band antenna onboard Eutel- plicate operations for private companies as sat’s W2A satellite in April however, the two U.S. legislation prohibits the sale of better companies would have to launch a new satel- than 0.5 metre resolution images outside lite in order to abide by their licence obliga- U.S. government agencies103. tions. Representatives from both companies In spite of this development however, U.S. expressed their concern over making such an satellite broadband providers expressed scep- investment and announced that they would ticism over how much funding they would get wait to receive their insurance claim before from the broadband stimulus package. In a they made their decision99. One possible solu- 30 September submission to the Commission, tion to this financial impasse, they said, the U.S. Satellite Industry Association (SIA) would be a possible merger of the two li- urged officials not to focus on local labour- censed S-band providers in Europe, Solaris intensive terrestrial installations. In all, satel- Mobile and Inmarsat of London. Such a solu- lite operators have applied for $2.2 billion in tion however had been explicitly ruled out by loans and grants under the programme, out the European Union Commission at the time of a total $28 billion funding requests. Among of the licensing process100. them, Echostar has applied for $483 million In October, the market research firm Tauri under a joint venture with ViaSat Inc. in- Group issued its annual report on the state of tended to launch a dedicated broadband sat- the personal spaceflight industry in the U.S., ellite by 2012, as well as for $530 million for commissioned by the Commercial Spaceflight a similar venture with WildBlue Communica- Federation. The report found that although tions of Denver. Other contenders include the sector grew by a modest 6% (to $261 Skyterra, Spacenet Inc. and AtContact Com- million) in 2008, total investment rose by munications LLC104. more than 20% (to $1.46 billion). Of that, Faced with financing difficulties and unsure individuals provided more than 50%, private government backing, companies involved in equity funds 30% and government only 15%. broadband satellite services have shown a However, government clients still accounted tendency to consolidate their market posi- for over a third (or $126 million) of the in- tions. Apart from the joint ventures men- dustry’s revenues. The report’s findings con- tioned above, ViaSat Inc. announced in Sep- firmed the growing investor interest in com- tember the purchase of satellite broadband mercial spaceflight, as well as the increasing services provider WildBlue. The transaction involvement of bigger companies that enter cost $443 million in cash and $125 million in the industry as vendors or services provid- stocks. With this purchase, the future market ers101. for broadband services in the U.S. will most At the same time, NGA is moving forward to likely be contested by two companies, ViaSat increase the amount of imagery provided by and Hughes Network Systems. Both compa- commercial optical reconnaissance satellites. nies have scheduled launches of dedicated In April 2009, Director of National Intelli- broadband service satellites, ViaSat of Vi- gence Dennis Blair announced that NGA aSat-1 in 2011 and Hughes Network Systems would be purchasing images from at least of Jupiter in 2012. Both Satellites are devel- two satellites equipped with 1.1 metre aper- oped by Space Systems/Loral and they tures. DigitalGlobe and GeoEye are among should field an over 100 GB Ka-band capac- the principal candidates for acquiring these ity105. contracts102. In September 2009, NGA also In August, the U.S. government announced announced that it would launch a new con- its intention to simplify contracting arrange- tracting vehicle for acquiring image data, ments for purchasing commercial communi- called EnhancedView. This project will be cations satellite capacity. The plan involves similar to the current NextView programme, consolidating the government and defence with the difference that NGA will be request- purchasing contracts into one common ing 0.25 metre resolution products, instead of 0.5 metre that was the usual standard until 103 Brinton, Turner. ”NGA to Seek Higher-Resolution 99 De Selding, Peter B. “SES, Eutelsat May be Rethinking Commercial Satellite Imagery”. Space News 28 Sept. Mobile S-Band Services Venture”. Space News 10 Aug. 2009: 4. 2009: 1. 104 De Selding, Peter B. “U.S. Satellite Firms Vie for 100 De Selding, Peter B. “Solaris Stymied by Antenna”. Broadband Stimulus Funds”. Space News 5 Oct. 2009: 5. Space News 14 Sept. 2009: 10. 105 De Selding, Peter B. “With WildBlue Acquisition, ViaSat 101 Klamper, Amy. “Report: Commercial Spaceflight Doubles Bet on Satellite Broadband”. Space News 5 Oct. Investment on the Rise”. Space News 12 Oct. 2009: 14. 2009: 1. 102 Brinton, Turner. “Low-Cost Imaging Satellites De Selding, Peter B. “Design of Rival’s Satellite Has Encouraged in Defence Bill”. Space News 13 July 2009: 7. ViaSat Asking Questions”. Space News 5 Oct. 2009: 4.
ESPI Report 23 24 June 2010 Space Policies, Issues and Trends in 2009/2010
scheme by 2011. By doing so, U.S. govern- nals such as ships, aeroplanes, automobiles, ment will be able to buy bandwidth directly cell phones etc. from commercial satellite operators, some- According to a market forecast published by thing that is not currently possible. The new Euroconsult of Paris in October, mobile satel- contracting vehicle is known as “Future Com- lite services revenue growth is expected to satcom Services Acquisition” (FCSA) and it average 8% over the next decade, reaching will greatly simplify contracting procedures. some $2.5 billion by 2018. Satellite broad- In 2008, the U.S. government spent $397 band services should account for the bulk of million on satellite transmission contracts, of this increase, as they were projected to rise which $350 million were for defence pur- by 25% annually over the same period. poses106. Smaller growth rates were expected in ma- chine-to-machine applications (+16%), mari- Remote Sensing time mobile satellite services (+7%) and 108 Remote sensing refers to commercial compa- aeronautical services (+13%) , among oth- nies that provide optical and radar images to ers. the open market, mostly to government enti- In July, mobile satellite services provider ties that have been increasingly outsourcing Globalstar Inc. completed a life-saving finan- such capabilities over the past few years. cial rescue package, which included a $586 Although image procurement is usually con- million credit from a consortium of French ducted through short-term agreements that banks guaranteed to 95% by Coface, the acquire data at spot market prices, their de- French export-credit agency. This package mand was not considerably affected by the would allow Globalstar hardware providers crisis, mostly because of growing corporate Arianespace and Thales Alenia Space to re- and public demand for these products. This sume deliveries of the 24 second-generation trend has also led to an increasing simplifica- Globalstar satellites due for launch onboard tion of related public procurement policies Soyuz rockets in 2010109. After this develop- and a consequent ease of existing export ment, Globalstar announced to investors on 8 controls applied to satellite image data. July that it expected to return to a 30% an- The U.S. government announced on 7 Octo- nual revenue growth rate by the end of 2010, ber, for example, that it would relax its com- when its new 32 satellite constellation (in- mercial radar satellite data restrictions. This cluding eight existing ones) would become should allow commercial operators to offer operational, putting an end to the service high quality images of up to one metre degradation of the past three years caused 110 ground resolution to the open market, in- by satellite problems . stead of the existing three metre limit. North- The market for mobile satellite telephone rop Grumman Aerospace Systems of Los calls is expected to experience intensification Angeles would be the first company permit- in the next months. Thuraya, United Arab ted by the U.S. Department of Commerce to Emirates-based satellite telephone provider, operate a Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) is offering cheap handhelds, the new Thuraya image satellite under the new regulations. XT model, and also Inmarsat is to step into Company officials claimed that the proposed the handheld market with the aim to gain a satellite, called Trinidad, would be based on 10% share111. components from the Israeli TecSAR satellite, tested by the USAF earlier in the year. Ac- cording to the same sources however, the satellite’s development would require firm government purchasing commitments to start. With this development, European SAR image commercial providers will be facing U.S. competitors within the next two years107. Mobile Satellite Services 108 “Rosy Revenue Forecast for Mobile Satellite Services”. Space News 12 Oct. 2008: 8. Mobile satellite services (MSS) relate to appli- 109 cations delivered to mobile terrestrial termi- De Selding, Peter B. “$738M Financing Package Gives Globalstar a New Lease on Life”. Space News 6 July 2009: 1. 110 De Selding, Peter B. “105,000 Globalstar Telephone Subscribers Await Return of Full Service.” Space News 10 106 Brinton, Turner. “U.S. To Consolidate, Modify May 2010: 5. Bandwidth Buying Programs“. Space News 10 Aug. 2009: De Selding, Peter B. “Globalstar Predicts Return to Growth 4. Once New Satellites Launch”. Space News 13 July 2009: 107 Brinton, Turner. “U.S. Loosens Restrictions on 10. Commercial Radar Satellites“. Space News 12 Oct. 2009: 111 “Thuraya Escalates Fight for Satellite Phone Custom- 4. ers.” Space News 3 May 2010: 9.
ESPI Report 23 25 June 2010
18
16.15
16
14
12 11.6 12 10.94 10.2 9.8 10
7.8 8 Billion U.S. dollars
6
4
2
0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Figure 2.6: World satellite manufacturing revenues (Source: SIA/Futron112, The Space Foundation113)
the one hand to the often complex package 2.3.2 Satellite Manufacturing of financing mechanisms and industrial struc- tures in some countries, and on the other The satellite manufacturing revenues in 2009 hand to the reduced visibility of revenues experienced a significant increase compared from national institutional launches. These to 2008. The total revenues of satellite often draw on military budgets and, in addi- manufacturers that built satellites both for tion, commercial launch service prices are governmental and commercial launches are usually not disclosed. The Federal Aviation estimated to have reached $16.15 billion in Administration (FAA) estimates commercial 2009 which indicates a rise by 48% from the launch revenues for 2009 at $2.49 billion. $10.94 billion gained in 2008. It can be This represents an increase of $520 million observed in Figure 2.6 1 that this from 2008 commercial launch revenues. augmentation marks an abrupt end to the Europe again had the lion’s share, with more trend of slightly decreasing revenues from than $1 billion, representing 42% of the total 2006 on. The increase of $5.21 billion is annual revenues, followed by Russia ($742 primarily due to the construction of high- million and 31% of the total revenues), the value defence satellites, whereas the share of United States ($298 million and 12% of the the manufacturing revenue of the commercial revenues) and Sea Launch and Land Launch satellites slightly decreased from $5.2 billion ($280 million and 12% of the revenues – 114 in 2008 to $5.14 in 2009 . Figure 2.7). As a whole, commercial launch revenues grew steadily between 2004 and 2.3.3 Launch Sector 2009, witnessing an increase of almost 150% from roughly $1 billion in 2004 to almost It is difficult to assess the exact annual reve- $2.5 billion in 2009115. nues for launch services or the allocation between partners or countries. This is due on
112 “State of the Satellite Industry Report”. June 2009. Satellite Industry Association and Futron Corporation. 20 May 2010.
ESPI Report 23 26 June 2010 Space Policies, Issues and Trends in 2009/2010
3% 12%
12% 42%
31%
Europe Russia USA Multinational China
Figure 2.7: Estimated commercial launch revenues in 2009 by country/entity (Source: FAA116)
diminution since 2007117. Garmin had total revenues of $2.95 billion in 2009, a 10% 2.3.4 Ground Equipment increase compared to 2008 ($3.49 billion). It Ground equipment revenues include infra- sold 16.6 million units in 2008, which indi- structure elements, such as mobile terminals, cates a small decrease. Also, three of its four gateways and control stations, and consumer activities areas (i.e. automotive/mobile, avia- equipment, such as very small aperture ter- tion and marine segments) experienced a minals (VSAT), ultra small aperture terminals retracement; only the consumer-related area (USAT), DTH broadcast dishes, satellite of outdoor and fitness increased. Accordingly, phones and digital audio radio satellite their revenues considered by region also (DARS) equipment. dropped by 16–18%, however, their small asset in Asia increased by 3%. Garmin itself Portable Navigation Devices (PND) form one names the economic crisis and the “de- of the sub-segments of end-user electronics pressed global economy” as reasons for its incorporating GPS chip sets. Although the performance and expresses optimism con- PND market grew by more than 30% in 2008, cerning improvements in the global economy it decreased in the last quarter of 2008. In- and therewith revenues in 2010118. deed, growth was affected by the crisis as the PND business is very dependent on the automotive sector. TomTom and Garmin are 2.3.5 Insurance Sector the two leaders in the PND market. Although As the space industry continues to demon- both companies experienced reduced reve- strate increased hardware reliability, low nues in 2009, their expectations for 2010 are accident rates and booming growth in recent optimistic and they assume growing markets. years, insurance costs have been decreasing. Furthermore, TomTom notes the upcoming In fact, the repeatedly good performance of threat to their business by free turn by turn insured commercial space assets has at- navigation on smartphones, as for instance tracted new insurance capacity into the mar- offered by Navigon in cooperation with tele- ket, pushing premiums to historically low communication providers. levels. This trend has continued uninter- TomTom reported $1.48 billion revenue in rupted in the past 12 months. For example, 2009, which represented a 12% decrease insurance companies that cover space compared to 2008 and indicates a trend of 117 “TomTom Annual Report and Accounts 2009.“ 11 May 2010.
ESPI Report 23 27 June 2010
launches have demonstrated an increased ing a level where they may no longer support appetite for risk by raising the maximum the assumed risk. In that case, some insur- underwriting value for a single space launch. ance brokers may consider their withdrawal In March 2010 in fact, the launch of two from the market all together. The global communications satellites onboard an Ariane space insurance market currently has a total 5 rocket broke all records, with an accumu- coverage value of approximately $17 billion, lated liability coverage value of $700 million. distributed across 175 insured satellites119. Given that commercial space launches are Also interesting is the development of space expected to grow in the following years and insurance activities in the coming years in the technologies involved have proven their and with Islamic organisations and countries. worth in practise, one can expect this trend In 2009, the satellite fleet operator Yahsat of to continue. Nevertheless, this unusually long Abu Dhabi agreed with underwriters to sign period of higher insurance limits and lower the first Shariah compliant satellite insurance rates is beginning to raise concerns among package. This could be a first step for further insurers on the long-term viability of their insurance agreements and also more space business. Indeed certain commercial space activities of the Islamic World due to higher underwriters, such as Paris Re, have an- security120 nounced that insurance rates were approach
119 “Recent High Profits Attracting New Underwriters”. Space News 8 Mar. 2010: 15. “Ariane 5 Lofts Amazonas-2, COMSATBw-1 Satellites”. Space News 5 Oct. 2009: 3. De Selding, Peter B. “2009 Shaping up as Profitable Year for Insurers.” Space News 07 Sep. 2009: 10. 120 De Selding, Peter B. “Yahsat Buys Shariah-compliant Satellite Insurance.” Space News 12 Apr. 2010: 29.
ESPI Report 23 28 June 2010 Space Policies, Issues and Trends in 2009/2010
3. Space Policies and Strategies around the World
The following sections present an overview the announcement of the third space-related and analysis of the space policies of all major call for proposals within the 7th Framework space-faring countries. Attention is particu- Programme for research and development in larly given to high-level policy developments Europe. and general trends that reveal the different As in many other areas of European Union actor’s strategic rationale. Military space and activities, the key development in 2009 and defence related policies are considered in 2010 was the entry into force of the Lisbon more detail in chapter 6. Specific industrial Treaty on 1 December 2009. The new Treaty and political issues of a more “operational” on the functioning of the European Union is nature concerning institutional actors are the first document of its kind to set out an further addressed in chapter 7. explicit EU competence in space activities. An interesting trend in 2009 and 2010 has Under Article 189 of this Treaty, EU institu- been the steady rise in the number of space tions are invited to draw up and implement a agencies worldwide. In spite of the global long-term European space policy, including economic crisis’ impact, an increasing num- the possible creation of a European space ber of governments have seen fit to create a programme, in close cooperation with ESA122. central administration body for their space One of the key features of this article was the activities. This trend has begun in the late fact that it referred not only to the explora- 1990’s and it has continuer uninterrupted tion, but also to the exploitation of space by ever since. From 2000 to 2009 the number of the EU. This addition is thought to allow for space agencies worldwide has risen from 40 the inclusion of a security dimension to EU to 55, according to a study conducted by space activities. It is also thought to push Paris-based Euroconsult. Space related global toward a closer cooperation between the EU, spending has also continued its upward ESA and their respective Member States, as trend, reaching $36 billion for civil (up 9%) well as to create the necessary impetus for and $32 billion (up 12 %) for military pro- further developing the competitiveness of the grammes. In 2009 U.S. space related expen- European space industry on a global scale123. ditures amounted to $48.8 billion (or 72% of In another development, on 29 May 2009 the total), Europe’s ESA members to $7.9 billion, “Space Council” (the EU Competitiveness Japan’s to $3 billion, Russia’s to $2.8 billion, Council and the ESA Council meeting con- China’s to $2 billion and India’s to $900 mil- comitantly) met for the sixth time in Brus- lion121. sels, in order to assess the progress made on implementing a common European space policy and to identify further objectives. The 3.1 European Union Space Council noted that the “structured dialogue” among all European institutional The European Union maintained and aug- space actors was advancing well. It particu- mented its engagement in space activities in larly took notice of the cooperation between the second half of 2009 and the first half of the European Union Commission, the EDA 2010, under the Swedish and Spanish EU and ESA on identifying critical space tech- Council Presidencies respectively. Key devel- nologies in which Europe should become non- opments in this period included the entry into dependent on outside sources. The Council force of the Lisbon Treaty: the considerable also noted the inclusion of the Multinational progress made in the Galileo and GMES pro- Space-based Imaging System (MUSIS) in the grammes, the increased cooperation between EDA programme list, as well as the adoption the European Commission (EC), the European of the ESA Preparatory Programme for the Space Agency (ESA) and the European De- fence Agency (EA), in promoting European 122 Official Journal of the European Union. Treaty of non-dependence in critical space technologies Lisbon.DOC C115/128 of 9 May 2008. Brussels: European th and infrastructures, the meeting of the 6 Union.
ESPI Report 23 29 June 2010
development of the European Space Situ- In relation to the GMES programme, the ational Awareness system (SSA)124. European Commission also had a number of decisions to make during the period in ques- Another area of particular interest to the tion, including defining a data-access policy Council was the potential contribution of and securing future funding. GMES would space related technological innovation and consist of three dedicated Sentinel surveil- competitiveness to the overall European Eco- lance satellites and two payloads on other nomic Recovery Plan (EERP) for 2010 and satellites, for which the Commission has se- 2011. The Council recognised the importance cured a €2.3 billion budget while most of the of space activities to economic recovery and hardware will be paid for by ESA’s 18 Mem- recommended their full funding from the €5 ber States. In addition to this, the pro- billion economic stimulus package of the gramme will utilise national satellites built by EERP. The Council paid particular attention to Member States. However, funding of the fu- the participation of satellite communications ture generation Sentinels after 2013 still re- providers in the broadband connectivity pro- mained unclear. Although Commission offi- motion programmes of EERP, valued at €1.02 cials were previously leaning towards a user- billion125. In the same context, it called for the defined/user-paid approach, press reports full development of services based on the indicated that longer operating cost recoup- EGNOS, Galileo and GMES programmes. Es- ment methods were also considered128. pecially as far as the latter was concerned, the Council identified the long-term funding The question of the future funding of the of its space segment by the EU Commission GMES space segment preoccupied the Euro- as a key objective. In this regard, it also en- pean Commission and Member States couraged closer cooperation between the throughout the year, as the European Union European Union Commission, ESA and Commission budget line for the programme EUMETSAT126. would expire in 2013 and further funding would be needed to develop the next genera- In a related development, the European tion of its Sentinel satellites. For the time Commission announced in October 2009 that being, six Sentinel satellites and two dedi- it was considering maritime surveillance as its cated payloads onboard EUMETSAT satellites next major investment in space-based appli- are planned. However, with an expected sat- cations after Galileo and GMES. The Commis- ellite operational life-span of seven years, the sion was already financing pilot projects in next generation of Sentinels will have to en- this direction, including the space-based ter into development soon, in order to sustain Automatic Identification System (AIS) that operations after 2020129. uses signals emitted by commercial vessels to determine their identity, destination, speed As far as future funding is concerned, all pos- and cargo. However, in order for such sys- sible options were investigated by the Euro- tems to become useful for maritime surveil- pean Commission. The conclusion was that lance in the field, they would have to improve only an adequate long-term budget for GMES their operational response times. All ships operations after 2013 would guarantee a over 300 tons displacement are required to profitable return for the investment already have such transponders by international made on the programme. In other words, maritime regulations. ESA has also developed backing away form the project now would two experimental AIS receivers that were defeat its declared objective of a sustainable launched to the ISS in September 2009127. Earth observation capability for Europe. Fur- thermore, without additional future funding the programme would not reach its full re- search and development potential and it
124 would not produce any significant technologi- Council of the European Union. Outcome of cal returns for the European space industry130. Proceedings from the Competitiveness Council of 29 May 2009: Draft “Space Council” Orientations/Council An independent ESA long-term analysis of the Resolution. SEC (2009) 10500 of 29 May 2009. Brussels: programme also reached the same conclu- European Union. sion. According to this, a €600 million annual
ESPI Report 23 30 June 2010 Space Policies, Issues and Trends in 2009/2010
budget between 2014 and 2020 would be programmes, including an independent Euro- required, including €470 million for opera- pean human spaceflight capability134. tional activities and €170 million for future Another European programme that saw con- research and development, (R&D)131. siderable progress in 2009 and 2010 was the Several other issues concerning GMES also Galileo satellite navigation and positioning remained open, including ownership of the system. As early as June 2009, discussions system, data policy, procurement policy and among the European Space Agency (ESA), governance arrangements. The most prob- the European Union Commission and indus- able scenario contemplated would be for the trial partners were approaching their conclu- transfer of the Sentinels’ ownership from ESA sion over the best way to contract the de- to the European Union Commission (EC). ployment of the system’s satellites. The con- Such an arrangement would make the EC the tract for the building of the 28 spacecraft operator of the system’s space segment, thus required was due for signature later in the assuring a free and open access policy to its year and the two companies biding for it were data. It would also normalise the project’s Astrium Satellites and OHB System. European governance, with the EC acting as the pro- authorities were disputing whether they gramme manager deciding on system up- should order all satellites from one manufac- grades, ESA working as the development and turer or split the contract between them. procurement agent on behalf of the EC, and Another undecided issue was whether the EUMETSAT operating oceanographic and me- entire constellation should either be ordered teorological components onboard its satel- from the beginning, or split into two pro- lites132. Finally, another milestone for the curement stages to allow for last minute programme’s governance was accomplished modifications. Finally, the question of which on 5 February 2010, with the European launcher to use remained open, with ESA Commission’s decision to set up the GMES preferring an exclusively Soyuz launching Partners Board. The 27 member board (one campaign and Astrium Space Transportation from each EU member country) would func- pushing for the use of Ariane 5 as well. Al- tion as a panel of experts, monitoring the though a decision has not been reached yet, GMES project’s implementation and providing ESA and European commission seemed fa- strategic guidance for its future develop- vourable to dividing the contract into two ment133. phases and splitting each phase between the two bidders135. The increasing importance of space activities for the EU was made even more evident on A decision on deploying the system’s first 15 October 2009, when the European Com- fully operational constellation was repeatedly mission President José Manuel Barroso made delayed, most recently in October, when for the first time a speech dedicated entirely ESA’s Director General Jean-Jacques Dordain to the European Space Policy. During his announced that last-minute satellite manu- presentation in a conference on this subject facturing difficulties were reported by its in Brussels, he reiterated the usefulness of principal contractors, Astrium Satellites and space systems for EU policies and the need to Thales Alenia Space. The new timetable given achieve autonomy in relevant space tech- foresaw a first launch in November 2010 and nologies. An independent EU capacity in the a second early in 2011, always onboard field of Earth and near space observation Soyuz rockets launched from the European should be a top priority, he said. Further- Spaceport in French Guiana136. more, he maintained that EU space activities In late December however, it was made should not be confined to producing direct known that the European Union Commission financial results, but should seek to imple- had finally decided to select OHB Technology ment broader European policies as well. Fi- of Germany to build at least the first 8 Galileo nally, he called for further developing space satellites for approximately €350 million. The EU Commission chose the OHB-led consor- tium that included Britain’s Surrey Satellite Technology Ltd. over its competitor EADS
131 Commission of the European Communities. Global 134 José Manuel Durão Baroso. “The Ambitions of Europe Monitoring for Environment and Security (GMES): in Space”. SPEECH/09/476. Conference on European Challenges and next steps for the Space Component. Space Policy. Brussels, Belgium. 15 Oct. 2009. COM (2009) 589 final of 28 Oct. 2009. Brussels: European “EC President Eyes Space Surveillance Network“. Space Union. News 19 Oct. 2009: 3. 132 Ibid. 135 De Selding, Peter B. ”With Galileo Contracts at Stake, 133 Commission of the European Union. Decision of 5 Disagreement Over Way Forward”. Space News 22 June February 2010 Setting Up the GMES Partners Board 2009: 4. (2010/67/EU). Official Journal of the European Union doc. 136 “Last Minute Issues To Delay initial Galileo L35/23 of 6 Feb. 2010. Brussels: European Union. Deployment”. Space News 12 Oct. 2009: 3.
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Astrium Satellites consortium that also in- Centre (ESTEC) in the Netherlands, on 27 cluded Thales Alenia Space, although it was January 2010139. widely considered lacking the industrial depth In a related development, the European to build the entire 22 spacecraft constellation. Commission also announced on 7 January However, the EU Commission’s decision to 2010 that the Galileo satellite navigation sys- maintain competition in the programme tem’s launching campaign was facing a 59% weighed heavily on its decision. The situation budget override, mostly due to the Soyuz was further complicated by its refusal to si- rocket’s unexpectedly high cost. In July 2008 multaneously award the remaining 14 satel- the European Commission had announced lites contract to the Astrium consortium, due that launching the 28 satellite constellation to what was described as the company’s non- would cost €700 million, or approximately compliance with the competition’s bidding €25 million per spacecraft. The new figure guidelines. Both Astrium and Thales Alenia announced in January for lifting only the first Space had made considerable industrial in- ten satellites to orbit mounted to €397 mil- vestments at the early stages of the Galileo lion, or €39.7 million per satellite (with each programme, when they were given sole rocket carrying two spacecraft). This substan- charge of the project137. tial budget increase was attributed by the The official announcement of the European European Space Agency’s (ESA) Director Commission’s decision came on 7 January General J.J. Dordain in a 14 January inter- 2010, when a team led by OHB Technology of view to higher Russian launchers’ prices, as Germany was selected to build the first batch well as to initially underestimating the costs of 14 Galileo navigation satellites. The con- of adapting the Soyuz rocket for the Galileo sortium would also include small satellite mission140. specialist Surrey Satellite Technology Ltd. Another key plank in the European space (SSTL). This decision was a setback for com- policy during the past 12 months has been petitor EADS Astrium Satellites that was ex- the increased cooperation among different pected to get the order. The contract was European institutions in the field of space valued at €566 million and launches were security. The European Defence Agency’s scheduled to begin in October 2012 and con- (EDA) increased participation in relevant tinue in three month intervals. Eighteen more space projects was particularly important. satellites would be ordered in the near future, The inclusion of MUSIS in EDA development through a new open competition. In choosing programmes already mentioned above was OHB, the European Commission manifested significant in this trend. Another positive de- its intention to double source the programme velopment has been EDA’s participation, to- in order to minimise financial and technologi- gether with the European Union Commission cal risks. and ESA, in a joint task force to investigate In the same spirit, the Commission opted for European strategic non-dependence in space a two launcher scheme to lift the satellites: activities. EDA’s contribution was particularly out of the 14 initial spacecrafts ten would be welcome in identifying key security related launched onboard 5 Soyuz rockets, whereas space technologies that should be developed the last four would be carried to orbit on a in the near future within Europe in order to single Ariane 5 ECA launch. Launching costs achieve this non-dependence141. however were thought to be considerably Furthermore, EDA increased its efforts to pool higher than expected and their budget over- security related space services demand ride could exceed €1 billion. A third €85 mil- among EU Member States, in an effort to lion contract for system support and valida- reduce their cost. In this regard, it signed an tion was awarded to Thales Alenia Space. agreement with satellite communications Further contracts on ground control and mis- provider Astrium Services to set up a Euro- sion segments were anticipated in mid- pean common contracting vehicle for com- 2010138. Eventually, the first three contracts mercial bandwidth procurement for military for the Galileo full operational capability sys- tem were signed in the premises of ESA’s 139 European Space Research and Technology “Major Galileo Contracts Signed”. 27 Jan. 2010. European Space Agency Galileo Navigation Website. 30 Mar. 2010
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use. Astrium Services came under a 3.2 European Space Agency €130,000 contract from EDA in November 2009 to pool European commercial satcom After reviewing the EU space activities pro- requests under a common contracting grammes in 2009–2010, the crucial role of scheme known as the European Satcom Pro- the European Space Agency in all of them curement Cell. This scheme would allow As- becomes obvious. In fact, from a space policy trium to sign longer term bandwidth lease standpoint, the most significant development contracts with commercial operators on be- has been the de facto transformation of the half of participating European governments agency into the implementing arm of the EU through London Satellite Exchange, its sub- space policy. This fact becomes apparent sidiary that acts as an intermediary between given ESA’s increased involvement in shaping commercial satcom suppliers and buyers. In and building most of the necessary infra- this way EDA hoped to secure a 30 to 50% structure for EU space projects. This gradual discount from currently used spot prices that process however has not yet acquired a more European countries are usually paying. Until institutionalised or de jure form. It therefore that time, five countries had confirmed their still remains a more or less empirical and participation in this scheme, namely France, result-driven cooperation process between Italy, the Netherlands, Poland and the UK. the EU and ESA, guided by the space policy The European Satcom Procurement Cell drew aspirations of one and the unique capacity to its operating principle from its French coun- materialise them of the other. This coopera- terpart Astel-S, a commercial bandwidth tion therefore remains a step-by-step process pooling procurement contract set up between that still operates under conditions of con- Astrium and the French Armed Forces in stantly evolving tasks and the need to pro- 2005142. duce tangible results for Europe’s space ac- Finally, in July 2009 the Commission of the tivities. European Union issued its 3rd call for propos- On a policy level, the period in question wit- als on space related R&D projects within the nessed the implementation of most of the framework of the 2007–2013 FP7 research key orientations given by ESA’s Ministerial funding programme (for a total budget of Council in November 2008. These focused on €114 million). Proposed funding was divided expanding ESA activities into financing space into three categories of activities, namely applications programmes while at the same space-based applications (€47 million), space time increasing space exploration activities. technologies R&D (€58 million) and cross- ESA’s increased space applications-related cutting activities (€9 million). Space applica- workload can be depicted in its participation tions mostly referred to developing GMES in several EU programmes described above. products, with a special focus on providing Increased funding for the abovementioned multipurpose Earth observation services and projects also accounts for an 18.6% in the down streaming them to European users, agency’s budget in 2009, compared to 2008. especially on a regional level. Space related Total payment appropriations have been in- R&D was approached through the scope of creasing at an annual rate of 10% over the interoperability and harmonisation of prod- last four years, reaching €3.35 billion in ucts, as well as ensuring their long term sus- 2009. This increase brought the agency’s tainability. This budget line also included budget to the desirable levels approved by funding for developing critical technologies to the Ministerial Council. support Europe’s independent access to space. Finally, under the theme of cross- On the other hand, in 2009 the continuing cutting issues the European Union Commis- global economic crisis began to weigh on the sion aspired to enhance space cooperation ESA Member States’ space budgets and con- with third parties and especially Russia and tributions to the agency. Acknowledging the African countries143. new financial realities, ESA Director General J.J. Dordain announced on 14 January 2010 that the agency’s budget spending would remain at these levels for the next two years, 2010 and 2011. This decision was not ex- pected to seriously affect ESA’s project schedule, as the agency’s budget had already attained an adequate level in 2009. Never- 142 theless, it was a form of recognition of the De Selding, Peter B. “European Defence Agency Pro- moting Long-term Satellite Leases“. Space News 11 Jan. difficult new financial realities, and a message 2010: 16. that ESA would not overstretch itself finan- 143 “The FP7 Space 3rd Call”. Commission of the European cially without previous approval by its Minis- Union. 30 Apr. 2010. terial Council, set to convene again in 2011.
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tions due to this freeze, Mr. Dordain ex- increased fears that the system might exceed plained that from now on ESA would be its projected €3.4 billion budget and might stretching the payment periods of any new not be fully operational by 2013 as contracts144. planned147. In general, however, current ESA operations Among the ESA’s key policy related activities, have been relatively little touched by the one can distinguish the joint EU-ESA Interna- economic crisis and they have continued as tional Conference on Human Space Explora- expected. The agency’s operations suffered tion, held in Prague on 23 October 2009. only indirectly from the crisis in November, During this conference, it was decided that a when it announced it would be freezing pay- space exploration road map for Europe ments for contracts valued over €10 million should be drawn by the end of 2010. The for a month (until 2010) due to a cash-flow meeting reaffirmed Europe’s determination to shortage. This temporary stop was attributed remain a principal space-faring player in the to a €400 million cash reserves deficit, cre- face of rising Chinese and Indian space ambi- ated by the accelerated pace of contract tions. But it also concluded that any mean- payments to its industrial partners that was ingful future space exploration effort should part of a deliberate attempt to counter the be of a truly international nature in order to effects of the global financial crisis on the succeed. However, participants did not de- space industrial sector. It is unclear however, bate specific space exploration proposals. Of whether the financial stresses of some of its course, a key element of any meaningful new 18 Member States also contributed to the European space strategy should be a consid- problem. Instead of delaying €400 million erably increased budget for space activities. worth of contract payments, ESA officials The European Union Commission currently preferred the possibility of taking out a bank has less than a €1 billion annual budget for loan in order to cover the gap145. space projects, which it hopes could triple for the seven-year budget period starting in Nevertheless, on 18 December 2009 ESA 2014148. reinitiated payments after only a three weeks self-imposed spending moratorium. Financial Another field where increased EU-ESA coop- auditing revealed that the deficit’s figure was eration appeared was in the development of exaggerated and that it would not exceed the European Space Situational Awareness €200 million, which ESA officials described as system (SSA). This programme is simultane- “manageable”. The first programmes to be ously funded by ESA (through its GST and funded (for over €500 million) were the con- SSA core element activities) and the Euro- struction of the first three Sentinel Earth ob- pean Union Commission (through its dedi- servation satellites for the European Commis- cated “Space” work programme of the FP7). sion and preliminary work on a new upper Both institutions have initiated research and stage for the Ariane 5 rocket that would en- concept demonstration projects related to able it to lift a 12 tons payload to the GEO SSA. Therefore, achieving complementarity transfer orbit146. between the two programmes and avoiding duplication of development efforts has be- On the other hand, in spite of the financial come a matter of the utmost importance. crisis Galileo’s budget overrun of €376 million Consequently, coordination and interaction was approved by the Commission of the between the three programmes (SSA pre- European Union in June 2009, after three paratory programme, GSTP and FP7) is cru- months of audits. The auditors found that cial to minimising development risks and additional charges were reasonable, given the maximising benefit returns149. contract modifications ordered by the cus- tomer. Their report concurred with a similar As far as space missions are concerned, on 2 investigation performed by ESA earlier that November 2009 ESA launched its Soil Mois- year. After this development, additional pay- ture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) Earth obser- ments were approved for Galileo’s in-orbit vation satellite and the Proba-2 technology Validation phase, which includes building four demonstration spacecraft, aboard a Russian satellites as well as most of the required Rockot vehicle operated from the Plesetsk ground control infrastructure by 2010. How- ever these budget and schedule overrides 147 “Galileo Cost Overrun Passes European Commission Audit”. Space News 29 June 2009: 15. 144 De Selding, Peter B. “ESA Freezes Spending At ’09 148 De Selding, Peter B. “EU Reps Express Support for big Level for 2 Years”. Space News 18 Jan. 2010: 13. Investment in Exploration”. Space News 26 Oct. 2009: 1. 145 De Selding, Peter B. “400 Million-Euro Shortfall 149 “Space Situational Awareness: Consolidated Activity Prompts Moratorium on Some ESA Contracts“. Space Plan for SSA, GSTP and FP7”. Commission of the News 30 Nov. 2009: 1. European Union. 30 Apr. 2010. 146 De Selding, Peter B. “ESA Spending Freeze Ends with
ESPI Report 23 34 June 2010 Space Policies, Issues and Trends in 2009/2010
Cosmodrome. The 658 kg SMOS was put into contract as Germany which, together with a near-polar sun-synchronous orbit at an France, is the programme’s main financial altitude of 760 km. It is equipped with a contributor, was determined to acquire MTG Spanish Microwave Imaging Radiometer us- prime contractor status for its industry153. ing Aperture Synthesis (MIRAS) instrument, On 3 February 2010, an ESA evaluation board the first major satellite instrument built for chose the consortium of Thales Alenia Space ESA in that country. The device is using L- and OHB Technology to build the next gen- wave microwave frequencies to derive infor- eration of Europe’s meteorological satellites mation about soil moisture and ocean salinity for EUMETSAT. The contract for the six levels based on their reflection. Proba-2 is an spacecraft (four imaging and two equipped ESA spacecraft that is set to test future satel- with sounding devices) known as Meteosat lite systems and instruments currently under Third Generation (MTG) was expected to development. Total costs of the programme reach a value of €1.4 billion. The satellites reached €333 million150. were to include significant improvements Furthermore, on 1 October the European GPS compared to their predecessors, including a Navigation Overlay Service Egnos was de- three-axis stabilization system instead of a clared ready for use for its freely accessible simpler spin-stabilised design. Negotiations service. Higher reliability versions, as well as between the consortium and the European an Egnos Commercial Service were expected Space Agency (ESA), which had assumed the to become operational in 2010. The system role of the contracting authority on behalf of uses two Inmarsat and ESA’s Artemis satel- EUMETSAT, were expected to start immedi- lites to augment GPS performance. The pro- ately after the announcement of the decision. gramme’s budget was €350 million. A The full life-cycle cost of the programme was French-based consortium of seven European expected to exceed €3.3 billion over a period air-navigation agencies, called ESSP, is under of 20 years, 75% of which would be covered contract to the European Union Commission by EUMETSAT. As the competition for the to manage Egnos until 2013151. MTG satellites would likely be the biggest single satellite construction contract to be signed in Europe in 2010, the selection proc- ess proved to be a highly contested one. The 3.3 EUMETSAT ESA evaluation board had to convene three times before reaching a decision and the On 1 July 2009, the European Meteorological agency’s Director General J.J. Dordain pub- Satellite Organisation, EUMETSAT, decided in licly admitted to unusually high political pres- favour of a $90 million contribution to the sure surrounding the programme. The other Jason-3 ocean-altimetry satellite, a joint contestant for the project was Astrium Satel- U.S.-France project. Securing funding was lites154. strenuous, as a number of Member States regarded Jason-3 as a bilateral U.S.-France In November 2009, the European Space programme. Additional support for the pro- Agency (ESA) launched the 130 kg Proba-2, ject has been secured from the European the second in a series of small satellite dem- Union’s GMES programme and ESA, which onstrators expected to validate future tech- have both announced they would be purchas- nologies in this field. Proba-1, the first of the ing Jason-3 data152. series, was launched in October 2001 and is still operational. Its successor, build with a On 9 December, the European Space Agency considerable contribution from Belgian gov- (ESA) bid-evaluation board failed for the sec- ernment and space industry companies, fields ond time to select a winner for the €1.4 bil- a number of experimental payloads that lion contract to build six Meteosat Third Gen- would be used in future ESA small satellite eration (MTG) satellites on behalf of Europe’s platforms. These include next generation meteorological satellite agency EUMETSAT. lithium-ion batteries, a newly designed star ESA will cover 75% of the project’s budget tracker and an innovative solar-flux concen- and EUMETSAT the remaining 25%. The prin- trator solar panel. The Proba project is ex- cipal competitors for the contract were EADS pected to continue with two more missions: Astrium and Thales Alenia Space. According Proba-V should be launched in 2012 fielding to industry sources, the delay could be at- an Earth observation instrument for environ- tributed to political pressure surrounding the mental monitoring; Proba-3, on the other hand, will consist of two satellites, set to 150 De Selding, Peter B. “European SMOS and Proba-2 Successfully Launched by Rockot”. Space News 9 Nov. 2009: 6. 153 De Selding, Peter, B. “ESA Again Fails to Select a 151 “European GPS Overlay Ready for Operations”. Space Prime Contractor for Meteosat”. Space News 14 Dec. News 5 Oct. 2009: 3. 2009: 6. 152 De Selding, Peter B. “EUMETSAT Approves Jason-3”. 154 “Thales Alenia, OHB Team Win $1.9 B Meteosat Deal”. Space news 6 July 2009: 4. Space News 8 Feb. 2010:3.
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demonstrate formation-flying techniques. space applications, French policy is evolving This experiment will be the first of its kind for along two axes, with the development of high ESA and it will be conducted in close coopera- performance optical imagery satellites (such tion with the Swedish space agency. Sweden as Pleiades) on the one hand, and the out- is expected to launch its own two Prisma sourcing of lower resolution ones to commer- small satellite formation later this year. This cial users through the management of the development would be very important for SPOT constellation by AstroTerra (now an ESA, as small satellite formation flying is one Astrium-Spot Image joint venture) on the of the promising new technologies that have other. This policy is aimed at maintaining the potential to revolutionise space applica- French technological capabilities in this field tion missions155. while reducing operating costs at the same time. In the same spirit of resource econo- On 21 January 2010, ESA’s Envisat Earth mies, dual use space systems and civil- observation satellite was nearly struck by private synergies are consciously and con- space debris, notably a used Chinese upper stantly being pursued. It should be recalled stage rocket body. ESA was given early warn- that CNES operates under a double mandate ing from the U.S. Space Surveillance Network under the Ministry of Defence as well as the and it was able to change the spacecraft’s Ministry of Research. altitude in time to avoid collision. If the two objects had collided, the accident would have Two examples of this dual approach can be produced a vast amount of additional space seen in the following examples. In June, the debris, likely doubling their total number. French Military Intelligence Directorate an- This incident demonstrated once more the nounced it was leaning towards outsourcing clear need for a European Space Surveillance future production of high-resolution satellite System, as well as the constant danger to images, under a €750 million project to build space activities posed by orbiting debris156. world-wide digital terrain models by 2020157. Simultaneously, Astrium Satellites announced that it had secured a €66 million contract with the French military to start development 3.4 National Governments on the next batch of two military observation satellites, set to be launched in 2014–2015. 3.4.1 France These were poised to replace the current Helios system. The new satellites are ex- In 2009 and 2010, France maintained its pected to be a higher resolution capability ambition to remain the leading European version of the civil-military Pleiades constella- nation in space activities. This effort was tion. French officials assured, however, that reinforced by the successful reorganisation of in spite of this development France was still its national space agency, CNES. Under a committed to the multi-national MUSIS pro- renewed six year contract with the French gram to build a common European satellite government through 2015, CNES is expected imaging system158. to consolidate France’s position in the Euro- At the same time, on 18 December 2009, pean space sector. As is the case elsewhere Helios 2B, the French new generation optical in Europe, the agency’s strategic planning imaging satellite, was launched onboard an focuses on developing downstream services Ariane 5 GS rocket from French Guiana. The for users, improving the country’s space in- 4.2 tons spacecraft was an identical copy of dustry competitiveness and leading multina- the Helios 2A launched in December 2004, tional European programmes, but without except that it fielded a more accurate optical duplicating ESA ones. The key strategic ob- instrument, believed to provide up to 35cm jective for France is to maintain its individual ground resolution. It was placed in the same status as a principal space faring nation, 700 km altitude near-polar Low Earth Orbit while at the same time increasing its partici- as Helios 2A, at a 180 degrees distance from pation in international cooperative space pro- it. EADS Astrium Satellites built the space- jects. craft, while its principal optical imager was More precisely, the French civilian space pro- built by Thales Alenia Space. The two- gramme has three major tiers: space applica- satellite Helios system has an estimated cost tions (with a particular focus on Earth obser- of €2 billion. Apart from France, four other vation), access to space, and space related European countries participate in the pro- research and development. In the field of gramme with a 2.5% stake, namely Italy, Spain, Belgium and Greece. Germany also
155 De Selding, Peter B. “ESA Embraces In-Orbit Demos with 2 More Proba Flights Planned“. Space News 8 Feb. 157 “French Intel Agency Eyes Outsourcing Data 2010: 11. Production”. Space News 15 June 2009: 13. 156 “Chinese Rocket Stage Nearly Hits Envisat”. Space 158 “France Begins Work on New Surveillance Sats”. Space News 15 Feb. 2010: 3. News 22 June 2009: 15.
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has access to its data through a bilateral 180 kg spacecraft called the CH4 Atmos- agreement to exchange Helios data with ra- pheric Remote Monitoring Explorer (CHARME) dar imaging data from its own SAR Lupe would be based upon the CNES Myriade small spacecraft. The Helios satellites are controlled satellite platform and it was expected to be by the French space agency CNES trough its launched on a Vega rocket in 2013 or 2014. Toulouse facility, but their daily tasking is France and Germany would equally share its conducted by dedicated centres in the par- €120 million cost161. Second, the two leaders ticipating countries, each using its own en- concurred on the timely development of crypted data links. The system’s expected life MUSIS, the Multinational Space-based Imag- span is five years159. ing System that will secure interoperability among European countries’ Earth observation Free access to space is also considered a satellites ground segments. Third, they critical national capability for strategic rea- agreed that their two countries’ space agen- sons. France maintains and covers a third of cies would jointly study the development of a the French Guiana launch facility’s operating new generation of the Ariane launcher. This costs. It is also heavily involved through programme has been financed by the French CNES in the development of future more ca- government’s economic stimulus package. pable versions of the Ariane 5 rocket, in co- The final decision for the building of the vehi- ordination with ESA (within the frame of the cle, known as Ariane 6, would be made by ARTA programme). Unrestricted access to the ESA Ministerial Council in 2011162. space has been recognised as a priority in the country’s national security strategy docu- ments as well. Finally, space launchers have 3.4.2 Germany been an area of increased bilateral coopera- tion with Russia, especially in regard to the In 2009 and 2010, Germany continued its development of the country’s next generation effort to position itself as the European space rocket. technology leader. In order to achieve this, the country has developed a two-fold strat- The close cooperation with former soviet re- egy. On the one hand, it takes the lead in key publics seems to be expanding, driven by European space technology development broader government policies as well. During a projects, both in the frame of the EU and state visit of the French President Nicolas ESA. On the other hand, it constantly in- Sarkozy to Kazakhstan in October, EADS creases the visibility and public impact of its Astrium closed a deal with the country’s gov- technological capabilities, either through its ernment to build and launch two observation participation in the International Space Sta- satellites. The deal, which also included the tion (ISS) or in initiating its own national construction of a satellite integration and test space exploration programme. centre, the training of Kazakh satellite engi- neers and the integration of the satellites The bulk of Germany’s funding for civil space with the Spot Image services network, was activities is still dedicated to ESA pro- valued at €230 million. Astrium will also grammes (over 75% of its 2009 space oversee and cooperate with the Kazakh space budget). However, the country has been also program, which according to the country’s increasingly allocating funds to exclusively officials should have a $253 million annual national high visibility space exploration pro- budget160. jects, such as a lunar orbiter mission planned for 2015 (LEO project). Although the budget Finally, close cooperation with neighbouring of these projects is still marginal compared to Germany on a bilateral level remained a key Germany’s participation in ESA programmes, plank of French space policy. On 4 February they are however considered strategically 2010, for example, the French President important in Germany. The drive behind this Nicolas Sarkozy and the German Chancellor trend is clearly to demonstrate the nation’s Angela Merkel held their regular joint inter- technological capabilities through exclusively ministerial meeting in Paris. On that occasion, national projects, which in return would in- a number of important agreements between crease the German space industry’s reputa- the two countries relating to space activities tion and client base, creating profit returns were announced. First, it was agreed that for the entire sector. France and Germany would jointly build a methane concentration monitoring satellite, The same approach has been adopted in re- capable of measuring the results of green- gard to German participation in the ISS. Al- house effects to global climate change. The though European participation in the station is represented by ESA, the German govern-
159 De Selding, Peter B. “French Helios 2B Spy Sat Sends 161 “France and Germany to Split CHARME Cost”. Space Back First Test Images“. Space News 4 Jan. 2010: 16. News 15 Feb. 2010: 3. 160 “Astrium Inks Two-Satellite Deal with Kazakhstan”. 162 “France, Germany To Build Methane-monitoring Craft”. Space News 12 Oct. 2009: 9. Space News 8 Feb. 2010: 3.
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ment was keen on underlining its industry’s the development of a national high resolution key role in building ESA’s Columbus ISS labo- optical Earth observation satellite as well. ratory compartment. The ISS has indeed a According to these sources, the system, crucial role in the overall German medium- known as the High Resolution Optical System term space strategy: it will facilitate the sci- (Hi-ROS), would consist of two or three entific research and development of the spacecraft featuring a 70 cm ground resolu- country’s future space technologies, it will tion and a quick operational response time function as a demonstrator of the German provided by onboard Ka-band communication space industry’s capabilities, and it will in- terminals linked to geostationary data relay crease the visibility and reputation of the satellites. This development was presented as country’s national programmes. a logical next step in developing German space observation capabilities to complement Germany has made a strategic investment in its existing radar reconnaissance satellites. the ISS. Although France is currently the Hi-ROS was expected to profit from the R&D European country with the biggest contribu- undertaken for the German-made optical tion to ISS activities, Germany has sub- observation payload of Korea’s Kompsat-3 scribed for more future scientific projects optical imaging satellite, which is expected to onboard the station and has become its larg- be launched in 2011164. est operating costs contributor. It is therefore the country that has the greatest stake in The same situation applies to a certain extent keeping it in use for as long as possible. An to telecommunications satellites as well. On example of this particular interest in ISS op- 13 October for instance, ESA and DLR an- erations appeared on 27 January 2010, when nounced that they had reached an agreement the German space agency’s (DLR) chairman on the management of the planned space openly disagreed with ESA’s intention to limit based European Data Relay System (EDRS). the ISS operating budget in order to cut ex- This should replace the existing Artemis penses. As ESA was contemplating reducing spacecraft. The proposed EDRS would consist the number of ISS astronauts, or of its con- of one dedicated GEO satellite and two pay- trol centres (U.S., Russia, Europe, and Japan loads on commercial satellites. In 2008, ESA each have one), the official DLR position was had requested €230 million to begin its de- against any change in future ISS opera- velopment, of which Germany had agreed to tions163. contribute 50%. Negotiations included resolv- ing the issue of intellectual property rights in Another field of particular interest to German the system’s German-built laser communica- space policy is space applications. In the past tion terminals. The system is envisaged to 12 months, the country has increased its cooperate with the EU’s Global Monitoring for involvement both in communications (Sat- Environment and Security Sentinel satellites com) and Earth observation (EO) satellites. and could be launched as soon as 2013165. At As with space science and exploration, the the same time, however, Germany is also German strategy consists of developing inde- developing similar technologies on a national pendent national space technologies and then level, such as the Heinrich Hertz space incorporating them into a larger European broadband demonstration spacecraft and the system. This method enables German indus- very high data rate Laser Communication try to expand its technical know-how and to Terminal (LCT) payload. This would imply increase its market share, while respecting that complementarity in the Satcom sector the country’s engagement in common Euro- between national and European levels is also pean policies. This strategic development compromised from time to time. concept is consistent with German industrial planning and political aspirations at a Euro- Finally, in the past 12 months Germany ap- pean level. However, the balance between peared to come closer to a decision to build these two strategic objectives is not easy to its first in-orbit satellite servicing demonstra- maintain, and it could result in Germany du- tor. More precisely, satellite manufacturer plicating on a national level space capabilities OHB of Bremen announced on 24 February it that are already under development on an EU had been selected as the prime contractor for or ESA level. a technology demonstration experiment of in- orbit servicing and de-orbiting of satellites. For example, Germany is a prime partner in The programme, known as the German Or- MUSIS, the future multinational European bital Servicing Mission (DEOS in German), is optical Earth observation system. In October, however, German industrial and government sources disclosed that they were considering 164 De Selding, Peter B. “Germany Eyes Teaming With Industry For Its Own Optical Satellite System“. Space News 19 Oct. 2009: 1. 163 De Selding, Peter B. ”International Space Station 165 De Selding, Peter B. “ESA and Germany Reach Cutbacks Encounter German Resistance”. Space News 1 Agreement on Data Relay System“. Space News 19 Oct. Feb. 2010: 5. 2009: 6.
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run by the German space agency DLR. Al- vices. As is the case in other European coun- though it has been under study for more than tries, ASI has focused on increasing the Ital- a decade, it was recently promoted to more ian industry’s share in efficiently down detailed design work. However, the decision streaming services to customers. A major to build the first demonstrator, which could milestone for the commercialisation of cost up to €200 million, had not been made Cosmo-Skymed products to market custom- yet. Nevertheless, this development demon- ers was achieved in the past 12 months with strates the increasing interest of European the creation of E-Geo, a joint venture be- countries in these potentially revolutionising tween Telespazio and ASI set up for this pur- technologies. In-orbit servicing of LEO satel- pose. At the same time, the Italian space lites would permit the extension of their op- agency has begun development of the next erational life span at a fraction of their re- generation of Cosmo-SkyMed that is ex- placement cost. De-orbiting technologies pected to fly in 2016 (for an estimated €600 would allow for the clearing of saturated or- million budget). As in the case of its other bital paths from obsolete spacecrafts, thus European counterparts, Italy also participates helping to mitigate the problem of orbital in the effort to effectively downstream Galileo space debris and to minimise the danger of and GMES products (for which the country collisions with operational satellites. The covers 30% of the budget). For the Galileo DEOS demonstrator envisaged would have data utilisation project, ASI estimates that the ability to track satellites, autonomously €100 million to €150 million of additional rendezvous with them in orbit and refuel or funding would be required. repair them by the means of a robotic arm. Earth observation is also the basis of Italy’s Furthermore, it would be able to capture the bilateral cooperation with France in the target satellite and guide it into a destructive framework of the Orfeo programme that re-entry trajectory. A significant number of should combine Cosmo-SkyMed SAR data critical technologies would have to be vali- with the French Pleiades system optical data. dated before an operational system becomes In the mean time, cooperation between the available. In addition to this, the legal prob- two countries has turned to Satcom projects lem of determining liability in the case of the as well. ASI’s president confirmed the up- servicing spacecraft accidentally damaging its coming acquisition of two new satellites by target satellite would have to be resolved166. ASI in close cooperation with its French coun- terpart, CNES. The new spacecraft would be 3.4.3 Italy the telecommunications satellites Athena- Fidus and Sicral-2 (the second intended for The recently elected president of the Italian military use). Sicral-2, the newest of the Ital- Space Agency (ASI), Enrico Saggese, an- ian military Satcom spacecrafts, would host a nounced in January that the global economic separate French payload to complement its crisis would not affect the agency’s budget Syracuse 3 constellation168. for 2010 and 2011, which was expected to remain at approximately €700 million annu- Finally, the Italian space industry is also ally (excluding military-related expendi- heavily involved in the development of the ture)167. However, this would also imply that future small-satellite launcher Vega, an ESA no increase could be expected in the near programme for which ELV SpA of Italy is the future. Given these financial constrains, Ital- prime contractor. ASI is paying for 60% of ian space policy would probably focus on the project’s budget, a fact that reveals its maintaining currently announced projects, strategic character for Italian space policy. without expanding to new ones. Happily for According to ASI’s president, the first launch Italy, the current financial crisis coincides of the rocket is expected in early 2011. After with a period of limited additional budgetary that, he said, ASI would most likely invest needs, as a number of key programmes are further launcher development funding into 169 completing their development phase (e.g. the the next generation Ariane rocket . Vega launcher), while others are only starting Italian space exploration initiatives are more theirs (e.g. the next generation Cosmo- modest than that of France or Germany. SkyMed). However, the country has a key participation In general, Italian space projects evolve in the ISS and has adopted an approach simi- around space applications, with the bulk of lar to Germany’s in favour of using ISS facili- the funding going to Cosmo-Skymed ser- ties to their maximum capacity in the service
166 De Selding, Peter B. “DLR Takes Step Toward In-orbit Servicing Demonstration“. Space News 1 Mar. 2010: 14. 168 Ibid. 167 De Selding, Peter B. “Italian Space Agency Expects 169 De Selding, Peter B. “Italian Space Agency Expects Budget to Remain Flat for 2010”. Space News 18 Jan. Budget to Remain Flat for 2010”. Space News 18 Jan. 2010:6. 2010:6.
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of space science and technology develop- £158 million in 2007 to £205 million in ment. 2009). On 10 February 2010, the committee of ex- 3.4.4 United Kingdom perts finally delivered its study on the future of United Kingdom’s space policy. The docu- The year 2009 was a significant one for UK ment, entitled the Space Innovation and space policy, as it witnessed the decision to Growth Strategy (IGS), was commissioned by replace the British National Space Centre the British government to propose reforms in (BNSC) with a dedicated space agency. This the functioning and scope of UK’s space ac- development will surely lead to a profound tivities administration and policy. The study restructuring of UK space activities and their included 16 recommendations on how Britain administration. UK space policy has long been could raise the political profile and industrial oriented towards producing concrete techno- impact of its space programmes. A first step logical and industrial benefits for the country. towards this direction was taken in late 2009, It is therefore apparent that this decision was when the creation of a dedicated space driven by the desire to increase value for agency to overview all of the country’s space money in UK space activities and to help the activities was announced. The current UK space industry improve its position in the space budget stands at £265 million, over European space market. BNSC, which is not a 75% of which represents the country’s con- space agency but a coordinating body, relies tribution to ESA. One of the report’s key rec- on funding from ten different government ommendations was to double the amount of departments. Through this user-oriented the British contribution and to manage it in approach, BNSC has not always been able to such a way as to maximise industrial returns secure adequate funding for British industrial for the country. In fact, the panel of experts participation in ESA’s space applications pro- suggested that UK contribution to ESA should grams. Through the creation of a more tradi- reach the levels of its French and German tional space agency, UK officials hoped to counterparts, if the country was to achieve assure a prime contractor’s role for British the full potential benefits of its participation firms in future ESA projects. Characteristi- in ESA. Furthermore, the experts concluded cally, the announcement that the government that Britain should increase and support the was contemplating its creation was immedi- competitiveness of its national space indus- ately applauded by Astrium Ltd., UK’s largest try. To that effect, it proposed the backing of 170 space company . UK’s exports in this field by the country’s 172 Creating a UK space agency was a gradual Export Credit Guarantee Department . process. On 22 July, Lord Drayson, the British Another policy advice included in the docu- Science and Innovation Minister, announced ment was to expand the future British space a three months public consultation on the agency’s area of responsibilities to include possibility of creating a national space agency military space activities as well. In this sense, in the UK. After several months, the British the report’s authors looked up to the example government finally announced on 10 Decem- of France and Italy which both have space ber that it would create a national space agencies with dual civil-military role. For that agency to replace BNSC by the end of 2010. reason, the committee recommended that According to the rationale of the decision, a the development of national military space dedicated space agency would be a better application should be considered in the coun- vehicle for strategic decision making, han- try’s new Strategic Defence Review, expected dling multi-partner programmes, coordinating to be published later during the year. Unlike space-related research and securing long- other European nations, Britain does not term funding for it. It would also go further in have national Earth observation (EO) satel- securing British participation in ESA projects, lites yet. According to the report, this capa- where 90% of the country’s £270 million bility gap should be addressed by the crea- space budget is currently invested. The deci- tion of a dedicated EO services agency in the sion met the immediate approval of UK aero- UK, which would develop and use its own space industry officials, who expected it to satellites.Furthermore, the committee in- boost their participation in ESA programs and cluded in its recommendations the need to increase investment returns for their compa- formulate a coherent and explicit national 171 nies from them . It also seems to be related space policy document in order to assure the to a steady increase in UK participation in ESA budgets over the past three years (from
170 De Selding, Peter B. “U.K. Eyes NASA-Style Agency”. Space News 27 July 2009: 4. 172 De Selding, Peter B. “Panel Urges Britain To Boost 171 “Britain Replacing BNSC With New National Space Space Spending, Support Exports”. Space News 15 Feb. Agency“. Space News 14 Dec. 2009: 3. 2010: 15.
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long term strategic guidance of space pro- days. This has practically obliged satellite grammes173. operators to launch all satellites built in, or using components made in the U.S., from Finally, on 23 March the British government U.S. territory. Mrs Tauscher said that includ- announced it had decided to establish the UK ing satellites in the munitions’ list has im- Space Agency on 1 April 2010. The Agency peded technological innovation from U.S. would operate along the general principles companies in this field and it has decreased mentioned above. It would not however their competitiveness on a global scale176. benefit of any additional budget, since the financial conditions in the UK would not allow Earlier in June, the U.S. House of Represen- it. Nevertheless, the new administrative tatives passed the Foreign Relations Authori- structure was expected to produce immediate sation Act for 2010 and 2011 that enabled benefits for the British space industry’s ex- President Obama to remove commercial sat- ports. In addition to this, it would certainly ellites from the USML. However, the bill was secure a more visible presence within the still awaiting approval by the U.S. Senate European Space Agency for the UK as well as Foreign Relations Committee177. At the same better industrial returns from ESA pro- time, the U.S. House Permanent Select grammes for British companies174. Committee on Intelligence picked up the ITAR issue in its 2010 Intelligence Authorisation Act. In it, the Committee underlined that strict export control of commercial satellites 3.5 United States of America and related technology has had the exact opposite effects from those anticipated. In During 2009 and 2010, the Obama admini- fact, it had encouraged local research and stration moved ahead with a complete revi- development of banned items in foreign sion of the U.S. space programme and re- countries and it had particularly motivated structuring of the NASA budget. The principal European companies to establish an interna- characteristic of the new policy was the can- tional non-U.S. collaborative research envi- celation of the Constellation manned space- ronment in order to produce them178. For that flight programme and the diversion of con- reason, the Committee proposed that the siderable funds to public-private sector space administration progressively removes space- technology development schemes. These related items from the USML. developments will be examined in the follow- ing chapter on NASA. The Obama administration returned to the subject again on 13 August, when the White Another issue that preoccupied administration House indicated on its official website that it officials was the possible removal of satellites would move forward with export-control re- from the U.S. munitions list. On 25 June, form. The same commitment was reiterated Ellen Tauscher was confirmed by the U.S. again in a public statement by Assistant U.S. Senate as the new Undersecretary of State Secretary of State Andrew Shapiro on 9 Sep- for Arms Control and International Security. tember. Mr Shapiro asserted that bureau- During her confirmation statement she sug- cratic struggle to remove certain items from gested that one of the Obama administra- the USML would be long, but that it had the tion’s top priorities would be to revise the backing of key officials, including U.S. Secre- U.S. export control regime, known as the tary of State Mrs Clinton. In the meantime, International Traffic in Arms Regulations he said, the U.S. State Department was (ITAR). She specifically acknowledged the working on simplifying and speeding up its need to consider removing commercial com- export licence application procedure179. munication satellites from the U.S. Munitions List (USML). The inclusion of such satellites in The entire public discussion on export regula- the list was decided by the U.S. Congress in tions was conducted amongst fears that the 1999, when commercial satellites’ export U.S. industrial and technology base might control jurisdiction was moved from the erode in the near future because of extensive Commerce Department to the State Depart- market consolidation, an aging work force ment175. This situation has created serious and the absence of new major defence pro- obstacles for satellite operators, since clear- grams. Senior Pentagon officials had already ing USML items for export can take up to 90 expressed concern over losing irreplaceably skilled defence-related workforce due to re- 173 De Selding, Peter B. “Panel Urges Britain To Boost Space Spending, Support Exports”. Space News 15 Feb. 176 Klamper, Amy. “Obama ITAR Reform Could Move 2010: 15. Satellites Back to Commerce”. Space News 6 July 2009: 6. 174 De Selding, Peter B. “New Government Space Agency 177 Ibid. To Centralise British Space Efforts“. Space News 29 Mar. 178 Klamper, Amy. “House Intelligence Committee Weighs 2010:11. in on ITAR Reform“. Space News 20 July 2009: 16. 175 Klamper, Amy. “House Intelligence Committee Weighs 179 Klamper, Amy. “Official Reaffirms White House Support in on ITAR Reform“. Space News 20 July 2009: 16. for ITAR Reform”. Space News 14 Sept. 2009: 20.
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tirement. If this trend continues, it is esti- approved the entire budget proposed by the mated that in the near future the U.S. indus- Obama administration, contrary to the House trial base will not be able to support every of Representative’s decision to cut $670 mil- procurement policy the Pentagon decides. lion from NASA’s requested budget for Space And on the other hand, the U.S. Defence Exploration. The reduction in the House Bill Department will have to be content with fac- was justified by House members as an at- ing monopolies in several defence product tempt to divert funds from the Constellation markets180. programme to the development of commer- cial orbit transportation vehicles. Earlier, the Throughout the year the debate on removing Administration had asked for the funding to satellite components from the Munitions List be restored, in anticipation of the President’s continued in both U.S. legislative bodies. But decision on the future of the U.S. manned it proved to be a highly polarising one, with spaceflight programme183. national security “hawks” facing aerospace industry officials that saw their global market On 2 December, as President Obama’s ad- share suffer since ITAR controls were im- ministration was considering outsourcing part posed in 1999. In this context, on 2 Decem- of NASA’s human spaceflight programme to ber the President of the U.S. Aerospace In- the private sector, safety procedures and dustries Association (AIA) M. Blakey ad- regulations regarding commercial space flight dressed a letter to President Obama urging came under legislative scrutiny on Capitol him to consider loosening the export control Hill. On the same day these issues were ad- restrictions181. dressed by the House of Representatives’ Space and Aeronautics and Aviation Safety During his state of the Union speech on 27 subcommittees. The former had called upon January 2010, U.S. President Barack Obama NASA officials to assess the commercial sec- confirmed that he considered the reform of tor’s safety procedures by comparison to the the U.S. export control system as one of his standards applied to NASA’s Space Shuttle top priorities. This reform was the objective and the Russian Soyuz spacecrafts. At the of the administration’s National Export Initia- same time, the Aviation Safety subcommittee tive, which foresaw the creation of an Export invited Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Promotion Cabinet to assist the President. officials to explain how safety regulations Further recommendations on how to relax would be implemented on commercial human export restrictions were due to be circulated spaceflights. FAA’s dual role in simultane- by 29 January within the government by an ously assuring aviation safety and promoting interagency working group set up for this commercial space activities came under par- purpose. The group was mandated to review ticular attention184. the entire export control procedure from scratch. The principal objective of this initia- On 10 December, the consequences of out- tive was to increase export volumes in the sourcing the U.S. human space flight to face of the global economic crisis, as well as commercial space companies came once to maintain the U.S. industrial competitive more under public scrutiny, during a hearing edge. The proposed review had reputedly before the House of Representatives’ Science received full backing from the Pentagon. This and Technology Committee. Lawmakers development was greeted on the following heard industry and government executives day by Marion Blakey, the president of the argue that any precipitous action in this di- Aerospace Industries Association, who high- rection could endanger future development of lighted the initiative’s positive impact on em- the skilled space-related workforce currently ployment within the defence and aerospace available in the U.S. By terminating NASA’s sector182. human space flight programme, they contin- ued, it would be difficult to maintain the tens of thousands of NASA’s direct and subcon- 3.5.1 National Aeronautics and Space Admini- tractor employees. Furthermore, apart from stration (NASA) losing considerable know-how and expertise On 5 November, the U.S. Senate approved related to NASA’s programme, future skilled the 2010 Commerce, Justice and Science technical personnel could be discouraged to Appropriations Bill that included an $18.7 enter the space sector because of the in- billion budget for NASA. The Senate thus creased carrier uncertainty that its commer- cialisation would entail. Speakers at the hear- ings included former Martin Marietta chief T. 180 Muradian, Vago and Bennett, John D. ”Pentagon Acquisition Chief Says Space Industrial Base May Warrant Protection”. Space News 14 Sept. 2009: 18. 181 Klamper, Amy. “AIA Presses Obama on Export-Control 183 “U.S. Senate Approves $18.7 Billion for NASA“. Space Reform”. Space News 7 Dec. 2009: 13. News 9 Nov. 2009: 3. 182 Klamper, Amy. “Obama Repeats Call for Export Control 184 “Two Hearings to Examine Private Spaceflight Safety“. Reform in State of Union“. Space News 1 Feb. 2010: 12. Space News 30 Nov. 2009: 3.
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Young and American Institute of Aeronautics vious administration’s NASA policy. The new and Astronautics President D. Thompson185. policy’s corner stone was the cancellation of the Constellation human spaceflight programme, On 16 December 2009, the U.S. President including all of its components (namely the also signed the 2010 $18.7 billion NASA Orion spacecraft, the Ares heavy rocket and the budget, but not without Congress adjusting Altair lunar lander). Instead, the new policy several budget lines. Scientific research and called for funding the development of radically International Space Station operations were new human space flight technologies that among the ones that received additional would enable NASA to venture not only to the funding ($4.47 and $2.267 billion respec- moon, but to more distant destinations as well. tively), whereas space operations and astro- While waiting for the development of these new physics saw their funding slightly trimmed (to technologies, NASA would increase funding to $6.14 and $1.12 billion respectively). The the private space flight industry, effectively main political issue behind this year’s space outsourcing the entire U.S. programme for budget was the fate of the cancelled Constel- manned space flight to Low Earth Orbit. At the lation programme that at that moment was same time, a considerably increased budget still under revision by the White House. was foreseen for the American participation to Through its proposed appropriations bill, the International Space Station (ISS) so as to Congress tried to thwart the effort to replace maintain the country’s current LEO space flight the Space Shuttle by increasing its budget capabilities. and including language in the bill that would For the purposes of the new civil space pro- prevent the President from cancelling the gramme, the White House requested a project without prior notification and delib- slightly increased budget for 2011 ($19 bil- erations with the legislative bodies186. lion, 1.5% higher than in the previous year). On 1 February 2010, U.S. President Barack Furthermore, total funding through 2015 was Obama surprised policy and industry officials now estimated at $45.5 billion or $6 billion alike with his NASA budget proposal for 2011 more than in the 2010 proposed medium (Figure 3.1). The new budget constituted in fact term spending plan188. a major change in the U.S. civil space pro- The key plank of the new policy has been the gramme and a radical departure from the pre-
0.2% 1.0% 2.7% 2.4%
16.5% 33.0%
20.2%
24.0%
Space Operations Science Exploration Cross-Agency Support Aeronautics Construction and Environ. Compliance and Restor. Education Inspector General
Figure 3.1: NASA budget of the Fiscal Year 2010 (Source: NASA187)
187 NASA “Fiscal Year 2011 Budget Estimates.” 01 Feb. 2010. NASA. 26 May 2010.
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change in NASA’s orientation from a mission- it was endorsed by NASA’s Administrator focused organisation to a technology devel- Charles Bolden, it met with considerable re- opment one. According to this doctrine, NASA sistance from lawmakers and NASA officials would be responsible for related research and alike, including some skepticism expressed development, bringing about ground braking from Bolden’s predecessor Mike Griffin. Criti- innovations that would ultimately revolution- cism on the proposed course of action fo- ise human spaceflight. As far as specific mis- cused mainly on three issues. First, the Con- sions were concerned, it would only maintain stellation programme cancellation would nul- authority over ISS operations and it would lify the $9 billion investment already made in continue to promote international cooperation the project and it would jeopardise the thou- in future manned space exploration projects. sands of jobs depending on it. Second, out- All other manned space flights to low Earth sourcing human space flight even to LEO orbit short of the ISS would be outsourced to could prove a lot more complicated than ex- private companies. NASA would thus become pected and in the end NASA might not be the driving motor for the development of a able to disengage itself from LEO spaceflight flourishing commercial spaceflight industry in completely (for example, it would have to the U.S. The agency would support private certify that commercial spacecraft are safe sector endeavors in two ways. On the one for humans). Third, changing the nature of hand, it would conduct the necessary R&D to NASA’s objectives in relation to human develop future space transportation tech- spaceflight (from missions to R&D) and pass- nologies that private companies would then ing some of its mission areas to the private be able to commercialise. On the other hand, sector could jeopardise U.S. national capabili- NASA itself would be a client for commercial ties in this field during the transition period spaceflight services, for instance in order to from one policy model to the other190. secure independent access to the ISS. In this Finally, the announcement of the new policy fashion, NASA would become the industry’s was closely followed on 23 February by partner and client, instead of its competi- changes in NASA’s administrative structure. tor189. More precisely, the agency’s ten regional field It should be noted that the new paradigm for centres and four mission directorates would developing human spaceflight in the U.S. be reporting directly to Administrator’s C. bares significant resemblance to the way the Bolden office instead of the Associate Admin- country’s Department of Defence has handled istrator’s office, as it was the case previously. its relations with the commercial satellite This decision clearly increased the grip of industry. U.S. armed forces have been in- NASA’s Administrator on the agency’s day to creasingly relying on a balanced mixture of day activities and made its decision-making developing their own space assets while process more top-heavy. Furthermore, the punctually procuring commercial space appli- restructuring also put additional focus on the cations products on an ad hoc basis. This agency’s R&D activities by reestablishing the dual approach has allowed for the simultane- offices of the agency’s Chief Technologist and ous development of dedicated high perform- Chief Scientist. In fact one could argue that ance military satellites on the one hand, and the changes clearly reflected NASA’s new for outsourcing demand for less sophisticated R&D oriented direction, while at the same products to the commercial satellite commu- time ensuring a pivotal role of the agency’s nications and Earth observation industry. head in managing these activities191. With the proposed NASA space budget, a Understandably, the principal contractors for similar approach seems to be adopted in re- the Constellation programme were the first to gard to the U.S. civil space flight programme contest the President’s new space policy. as well. As we saw above, according to this Representatives of Alliant Techsystems Inc. new scheme NASA would be conducting the (ATK) of Minneapolis, the programme’s prin- advanced R&D required for manned space cipal rocket subcontractor, expressed their exploration missions outside the Earth’s orbit, disappointment with the administration’s while commercial companies would take over decision and their hope that it would be over- the technologically less demanding task of ruled by Congress, which should have the launching people to Earth orbit. final word in approving the project’s termina- The proposed Obama space policy seems to tion. They also voiced concern over whether have been developed exclusively within the commercial spaceflight companies would be White House Office of Science and Technol- capable to develop man-rated spacecrafts ogy, and it was admittedly loosely inspired by within the foreseeable future. The company the Augustine Report on the future of the Constellation programme. However, although 190 Ibid. 191 Berger, Brian. “Bolden Overhauls NASA Organisation, Centralises Chain of Command”. Space News 1 Mar. 189 Ibid. 2010: 12.
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was expected to lose at least $650 million in grammes might loose its job. In that case, backlog orders related to the Constellation manufacturing know-how on several critical programme. At the same time, it was unclear technologies could be irreversibly lost. On the how much of the NASA’s $2.5 billion budget other hand, NASA officials argued that com- slated for wrapping up Constellation-related mercial space had the potential to create a lot work ATK would receive. The decision to ter- more jobs than those lost. Consequently, minate the project could weight heavily on there is consensus in the U.S. that the space the company’s future, as it was already trying industrial base would benefit from the new to cope with the phase-out of the Space policy on the long term. Nevertheless, coher- Shuttle, as well as the cancellation of USAF’s ent strategic industrial planning on a nation Minuteman 3 ballistic missile programme. wide scale would be necessary to preserve Maryland based Lockheed Martin, the con- critical manufacturing capabilities during the tractor for the building of Constellation’s transition period. In an attempt to increase Orion capsule, also questioned the wisdom of awareness of this problem, the NASA Admin- the administration’s new policy192. istrator himself urged private space firms to make better use of existing labour force and Another concern voiced by many opponents industrial infrastructure194. of the new NASA policy was that it could cor- rode the U.S. solid rocket motor industrial In an effort to prevent further reaction from base. In an interview on 11 February, NASA industrial and policy officials, NASA Adminis- Deputy Administrator Lori Garver revealed trator Charles Bolden confirmed on 6 Febru- that long high level discussions were held ary that development work on heavy-lift between NASA and Defence Department offi- rocket technology would not stop under the cials prior to the new policy’s announcement. new U.S. space policy. In fact, he said that The Pentagon’s concern was that after can- NASA would conduct an evaluation of all celling the Constellation programme there technologies related to Ares 5, the heavy-lift would be no solid fuel rocket development launcher of the Constellation programme, in project left in the U.S. This situation could order to choose the most promising ones for jeopardise the very existence of the only two further development regardless of the pro- companies that currently make these motors, gramme’s cancellation. The objective of this Alliant Techsystems Inc. of Minneapolis and decision would be to maintain R&D relating to Aerojet of Sacramento. If these two compa- key heavy launcher technologies in order to nies seized their production, their important start the manufacturing of such a rocket by know-how would be irreversibly lost. Since 2020 at the latest. In this respect, the the same motor type is also used in ballistic Obama administration space policy seemed missiles, the U.S. could loose the industrial to adhere to the Augustin Report’s key policy capability to replenish their strategic missile recommendation known as the Flexible Path. reserves. In order to tackle this issue, the Under this policy NASA was to perform only U.S. military has set up a joint working unmanned missions to the Moon and rather group, mandated by Congress to deliver by concentrate on Mars as the principal destina- June 2010 a strategic plan to preserve the tion of future U.S. human exploration mis- U.S. industrial base in this field. In the mean sions. Furthermore, NASA officials pointed time, the U.S. Air Force, Navy and Missile out that the new policy would actually speed Defence Agency have decided to pool their up the development of new space transporta- solid motor rocket demands so as to sustain tion technologies through its provisions for a very low rate production of the motors for larger R&D budgets and increased interna- as long as possible193. tional cooperation. As far as research was concerned, it was clear that the new policy Concern over loosing skilled workforce and called for an approximately $500 million an- critical industrial know-how as a result of the nual budget for R&D on new space explora- new policy was even expressed by officials tion technologies through 2016, whereas the who endorsed it, such as the president of the Bush administration planning only foresaw Aerospace Industries Association Marion $100 million195. Blakey. Although the potential of the new policy to create jobs in the private sector is Another argument in favour of the new policy acknowledged by the industry, there are also was the importance it gave to international worries that a part of the skilled workforce cooperation, not only in managing the ISS currently employed in government pro- but also in developing future space explora- tion technologies. Supporters of the new pol- icy line insisted on the advantages of achiev- 192 De Selding, Peter B. “Constellation’s Demise Will Cost Ares-1 Builder ATK $650 Million in Backlog”. Space News 8 Feb. 2010: 5. 194 Ibid. 193 Klamper, Amy. “Obama’s Move to End Constellation 195 Klamper, Amy. ”Bolden: Heavy-lift Development To Prompts Industrial Base Questions”. Space News 15 Feb. Persist Despite Ares 5 Demise”. Space News 15 Feb. 2010: 1. 2010: 16.
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ing innovation synergies with other major ber of them voiced concern over the possible space-faring nations. This of course might in loss of jobs in space industry. Others doubted some cases require for the U.S. to depend about the ability of commercial spaceflight upon foreign-made components for their fu- companies to develop their spacecrafts with- ture heavy-lift launcher, a decision which out significant NASA help. They also feared would probably meet with considerable resis- that in such a case NASA’s increased re- tance in Congress. On the other hand, it search and development budget would be would also allow NASA to focus on the devel- diverted and wasted into assisting private opment of radical, or “game-changing”, new companies to master already existing tech- space technologies that could potentially se- nologies on human spaceflight. On top of cure the future U.S. lead in this field196. In that, most lawmakers deemed the new policy this context, it would be interesting to ob- poorly documented and lacking of a detailed serve the future interaction between this new long-term development plan. They also found U.S. approach to space technology coopera- the policy’s objective of developing deep tion and the current EU policy of achieving space transportation means to accomplish strategic independence in this area. If for manned missions to Mars very optimistic. example the U.S. were to apply the principles Finally, its preference for international coop- of reciprocity and complementarity in its eration met with scepticism from Congress- technological cooperation with other space men wary of compromising the leading U.S. agencies, then it could demand that the role in space activities. In general, opposition number of U.S. made components onboard to the new NASA direction was so widespread foreign spacecrafts increased proportionally among the members of Congress that even to that of foreign ones installed on NASA the NASA administrator himself felt com- spacecrafts. Such a development would have pelled to say that the final decision to adopt it obvious consequences upon the EU strategy belong to the U.S. President and not him- for autonomy in space activities. self198. Under these circumstances, it was not sur- In conclusion, it appears that the new NASA prising that the new NASA policy came under policy came under criticism primarily for the scrutiny by the U.S. legislative authorities. In priority it attributes to the commercial space- consecutive hearings held on Capitol Hill on flight industry at the expense of NASA’s own 24 and 25 February 2010, NASA Administra- manned orbital missions. In fact, most con- tor Charles Bolden and White House science gressional critics presented this policy as a advisor Charles Holdren tried to defend the simple and poorly explained transfer of funds administration’s plan in front of Senate and from public to private space transportation House subcommittees. During these hearings activities. Furthermore, certain lawmakers it became clear that the vast majority of questioned the private firms’ ability to see Congressmen were opposed to the new pol- through such complex and long-term projects icy, which was far from securing the legisla- as human space flight missions, without gov- tive approval necessary for its adoption. Both ernment assistance. In other words, one NASA and the White House came under con- could say Congress members raised the same stant criticism for not consulting with Con- arguments that where heard during the pre- gress before publicly announcing the new vious months against the government’s fi- policy. A great number of Congress members nancial stimuli plans (or “bailouts”) for the accused NASA for rushing into this new direc- country’s investment banks. In both cases tion without planning it adequately or con- lawmakers questioned the wisdom of using sulting with all its expert senior scientists in taxpayer’s money to help private companies advance. Furthermore, lawmakers resented secure or increase their growth; in both cases what they described as a lack of transparency they criticized the President’s precipitated on behalf of the White House in preparing the decision without previously consulting with new policy. In fact, the general view on the the legislative authority; and in both cases subject on the Capitol was that the admini- they underlined the lack of transparency in stration had more or less imposed the new taking decisions with such important conse- policy without much discussion197. quences. In short, congressmen already irri- tated by the administration’s financial bailout At the same time, Congressmen also ques- policies resisted the idea of yet another policy tioned the viability of the plan itself. A num- of using public funds for the benefit of private firms. Especially since the administration 196 itself admits it could result to increased un- Ibid. 197 Klamper, Amy and Debra Werner. ”NASA’s New employment, at least on the short term. Con- Direction Drawing Fire From House and Senate sequently, it seems that the new NASA policy Lawmakers”. Space News 1 Mar. 2010: 1. could in the long run fall victim not of its own Klamper, Amy. ”House Appropriators Grill Obama’s Science Adviser on NASA Plan”. Space News 1 Mar. 2010: 6. 198 Ibid.
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possible weaknesses, but of the very timing now also be contemplated. Apart from the of its making. increased utilisation of ISS, ESA’s Director General also found common ground with the Some of the criticism against the new NASA new NASA policy in the field of Earth science. policy seemed to be vindicated on 22 Febru- ESA, he said, is expected to devote almost ary, when the agency announced it might 61% of its budget through 2015 to such pro- spend a considerable part of its $3.1 billion jects and cooperating with NASA on a regular propulsion research budget on developing a and mutual basis would be a more than wel- new family of main and upper stage heavy- come development200. lift rocket engines. If this announcement ma- terialised, NASA would be developing a new In a parallel development, NASA announced type of rocket engines without having any on 11 February that it would increase funding new rocket insight, since the Constellation to the commercial firms currently working on programme has been canceled. The new pro- space transportation vehicles by an extra pulsion system was expected to be a fairly $300 million in 2011. This project, known as conventional hydrocarbon main stage engine, the Commercial Orbital transportation Ser- coupled with a more advanced liquid oxy- vices (COTS) programme, began in 2006 and gen/methane upper stage one. The develop- it is run by NASA’s Exploration Systems Mis- ment of the main engine was expected to sion Directorate (ESMD). The programme’s take place in close cooperation with USAF, principal beneficiaries so far have been the which also looked for a U.S.-made engine to Orbital Sciences Corp. and the Space Explo- replace the Russian RD-180 engines of its ration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX) commer- Atlas 5 rockets. Given that the Atlas 5 lifts cial spaceflight companies. Both firms have almost half of the U.S. military satellites been receiving an annual total of $500 million every year, there is a strong national security by NASA in order to develop commercial imperative that dictates the development of a space vehicles to support ISS logistics opera- U.S. engine to replace it. Nevertheless, pri- tions. The additional $300 million funding vate launch services companies such as would definitely help the two companies to SpaceX also expressed interest in a new pro- meet their development objectives according pulsion system and asked for it to be modular to schedule, by allowing for additional tech- enough for use on their own commercial nology demonstration flights in 2011. Cur- launchers as well. SpaceX’s own Taurus 2 rently, both companies are proceeding with rocket would be also relying on the Russian the integration of their first prototypes. built AJ-26 engine for propulsion. Neverthe- SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket was expected to less, this development would mean that make its maiden flight in the spring of 2010, NASA would be spending a great part of its whereas Orbital’s Taurus 2 should follow a budget on developing propulsion systems not year later. Increased funding for the devel- for its own missions, but for the benefit of the opment of commercial space transportation Pentagon and the commercial spaceflight systems seems to be the first concrete out- industry. Hence, the critics of the new policy come of the new U.S. space policy201. who argued that after terminating the Con- One of the companies that are expected to stellation programme NASA would be funding take advantage of the new U.S. space policy private companies’ development projects with is Orbital Sciences Corp. The firm is develop- public money could very well be proven ing the Taurus 2 rocket and the Cygnus un- right199. manned cargo spacecraft that will form part Nevertheless, President Obama’s decision to of U.S. contribution to the ISS logistics sup- increase spending and commitment to the port. Therefore, it should be one of the prin- International Space Station met with wide cipal beneficiaries of the increased funding approval in Europe. In a press conference in foreseen in the new policy for commercial Paris on the following day of the announce- space transportation systems that would ment, ESA’s Director General J.J. Dordain compensate for the terminated constellation endorsed the new policy’s rationale. He programme by providing spaceflight services added that prolonging ISS operational life at to Earth orbit. In addition to this, Orbital Sci- least until 2020 should now become a com- ences is also engaged in commercial and civil mon priority for all parties involved. In this satellite programmes, including classified context, he also proposed that the current work done on behalf of the U.S. Department ISS users should be joined by emerging of Defence. These include manufacturing of space faring nations such as China, India and the Star 2 Geostationary communications South Korea. Furthermore, ways of making the space station more cost efficient could 200 De Selding, Peter B. “ESA Chief Lauds Renewed U.S. Commitment to ISS, Earth Science”. Space News 8 Feb. 199 Berger, Brian and Amy Klamper. “NASA Propulsion 2010: 6. Plans Resonate with Some in Rocket Industry“. Space 201 Klamper, Amy. “NASA Raises Bet on Commercial News 1 Mar. 2010: 12. Cargo“. Space News 22 Feb. 2010: 1.
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satellite platform, four of which were sold in civilian-military satellite programme known 2009. In general, the company’s space pro- as the National Polar-orbiting Operational grammes division saw a 15.6% revenue in- Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS). crease in 2009 and its profit growth was ex- The spacecraft was at the time under devel- pected to remain above 10% in 2010 as opment by Northrop Grumman. The project well202. was the fruit of a 1994 decision to merge the separate civil (run by the National Oceanic The example of Orbital Sciences demon- and Atmospheric Administration-NOAA) and strates one of the most interesting conse- military (run by USAF) meteorological satel- quences of the new U.S. space policy. More lites under a joint platform. However, the precisely, this policy could lead to an in- technological complexity of the project and creased level of direct funding from NASA to the divergence in civil and military opera- space industry companies that engage not tional needs caused long delays and budget only in commercial, but in military pro- overruns of several billion dollars. Under the grammes as well. If this new policy is carried new scheme proposed by the Obama admini- through to its full potential, commercial firms stration NOAA and USAF would build their such as Orbital Sciences may soon find them- own separate systems, using components selves in a position where government con- developed for NPOESS. Complementarity tracts, either civil or military, would represent between the two system’s orbital paths the bulk of their business activities. Conse- should secure continued Earth coverage. quently, the question emerges whether U.S. NOAA’s proposed new satellite programme, commercial space companies may eventually known as the Joint Polar Satellite System become completely dependent upon public (JPSS) would be managed by NASA’s God- subsidies and limit themselves to government dard Space Flight Centre. NOAA included contracts, or if they will rather use the ex- $1.06 billion for the project in its 2011 traordinary level of their public funding to budget request, with an additional $3.47 gain the advantage over their foreign com- billion to follow through 2015, when the sat- mercial competitors. Either way, as the same ellite is expected to be launched. On the con- companies would simultaneously develop trary, USAF did not have any immediate both civil and military space programmes plans to develop any future system, as the under the same roof, the budgetary and op- current generation of its defence meteoro- erational delineation between the two may logical satellites has several years of opera- eventually become thinner, with as yet unde- tional life left and two more are scheduled to termined consequences upon international be launched by 2014204. civil space cooperation. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Ad- ministration (NOAA) requested a total budget 3.5.2 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Admini- of $5.6 billion for 2011. Of that, $2.02 billion stration (NOAA) was attributed to the agency’s National Envi- On 23 November, NASA’s meteorological and ronmental Satellite, Data and Information oceanographic QuikScat satellite’s perform- Service, which handles its space assets. ance was seriously crippled when the space- Funding was increased by $831 million from craft’s scatterometer instrument ceased to 2010, mainly because of the new satellite’s function. Although this development was development costs. Apart from the $1.06 anticipated since the satellite had long passed billion dedicated to developing the Joint Polar its projected life-span, no successor had as Satellite System (JPSS), NOAA’s funded yet been identified. As a result, NASA and the space systems included among other $730 U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Ad- million for the Geostationary Operational ministration (NOAA) would have to rely on Environmental satellite-R programme, $50 data provided by ESA’s Metop-A and India’s million for NOAA’s participation in Eumetsat’s OceanSat-2 spacecrafts to monitor global Jason-3 altimetry satellite and $49.4 million to conclude development of several NPOESS ocean winds. NASA’s officials suggested that 205 they might launch a scatterometer as a pay- instruments . load aboard Japan’s Global Change Observa- tion Mission’s (GCOM) W-2 satellite, sched- uled for launch in 2016203. Also on 1 February, the White House an- nounced it was terminating the troubled joint 204 Brinton, Turner. “White House Dissolves NPOESS 202 De Selding, Peter B. “Orbital Bullish on U.S. National Partnership in Blow to Northrop”. Space News 8 Feb. Security Satellite Market“. Space News 22 Feb. 2010: 10. 2010: 5. 203 Werner, Debra. “Demise of QuikScat Deprives 205 Brinton, Turner. “White House Dissolves NPOESS Scientists of Ocean Wind Data”. Space News 30 Nov. Partnership in Blow to Northrop”. Space News 8 Feb. 2009: 6. 2010: 5.
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3.6 Russia succeeded in this undertaking, mostly thanks to increased funding made available from the country’s flourishing energy and armament In 2009 and 2010, Russia continued the sector. Indeed, the Russian space budget has modernisation of its space infrastructure ac- manifested the largest growth in the world cording to the ten-year Federal Space Pro- during the past 10 years. In 2009 alone the gramme announced in 2005. This document country’s civil space budget rose to Rub provided the key objectives and guidelines 88.64 billion, representing a 100% increase for the Russian space programme through from 2008. 2015 and is still in force206. One more space policy related paper was produced in 2008 by In addition to this, the Russian space indus- Russia’s Security Council, updating the secu- try’s output grew by 18% in 2009, in spite of rity related project priorities207. The imple- the financial crisis. This positive development mentation of this programme so far has has been the result of the carefully planned demonstrated the country’s commitment to financial support that the Russian govern- developing full scale capabilities across all ment extended to the country’s space indus- areas of space activities. try. More specifically, in the last two years the latter have received over 21 billion Rubles According to the goals set in 2005, Russian ($609 million) in public funds. When one space activities should have three key objec- considers that this stimulus package was tives: stabilise the country’s economy, de- carried out as planned in the midst of a major velop space science for the benefit of society, financial crisis, it becomes apparent that the and consolidate its defensive power. These country’s space programme enjoys strong objectives were in fact in hierarchical order. political support. In deed, the Russian Prime Space technologies were first to contribute to Minister Vladimir Putin himself has under- the country’s economic recovery after the scored the space industry’s importance for “lost decade” of the 1990’s, increase the vol- the country’s economy in several occasions. ume of external trade and exploit the Russian Finally, in the course of this financial stimulus industry’s competitive advantage in space in programme the country’s space industry has order to consolidate its market position. Sec- had the chance to improve its production ondly, further space technology development facilities208. should be targeted on space applications in order to enhance domestic stability (for ex- In order to achieve the objectives mentioned ample by extending state television broad- above, the Russian space programme has casting throughout Russian territory) and focused during the past 12 months on three facilitate government work. Furthermore, main activity areas: completing the deploy- scientific research should be conducted in ment of the Glonass satellite navigation con- close concertation with the industry in public- stellation, initiating the creation of a new private joint ventures and should aim at dif- space port in the Far East, and restructuring fusing its benefits to the entire society. Fi- the country’s space industrial base. The nally, military space capabilities should be Glonass constellation is expected to be com- preserved and modernised as much as possi- pleted by the end of 2010, with the launch of ble and with the widest feasible utilisation of 7 spacecraft, bringing their total number to dual use systems. 28 satellites, of which 23 fully operational209. Nevertheless, the constellation would have to Overall, one could say that so far the Russian include at least 24 spacecraft to provide space programme has, to various degrees, global coverage210. The development of a new attained most of its objectives. The main generation of satellites (Glonass-K) has al- challenge that it had to face was marrying ready matured and the first spacecraft are two inherently divergent objectives. On the expected to fly by 2011. The programme’s one hand, there was the necessity to main- budget reached 2.5 billion Rubles in 2009 and tain a widely degraded and even obsolete it was expected to rise to 3.7 billion Rubles space infrastructure inherited from the through 2011211. The first three of the Glon- 1990’s. On the other, major investments had to be made simultaneously for the develop- ment of new systems. Apparently Russia has 208 “Russia’s Space Industry Output to Grow 18% in 2009- Putin”. 30 Nov. 2009. RIANovosti 30 May 2010
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ass satellites scheduled for 2010 were put debut in 2011. The new rocket will use pre- into orbit on 2 March onboard a Proton-M dominantly Russian made components and it rocket launched from the Baikonur Cos- should therefore decrease the country’s de- modrome212. pendence on foreign suppliers. At the same time, Soyuz launches from French Guiana are Further steps for the programme include im- scheduled to begin in 2010 and its Russian proving its performance and accuracy, as well manufacturers have already secured 14 or- as giving it an international dimension by ders from the system’s operator Arianespace. providing services outside Russia. In this This development should help Russian com- respect the Russian government has panies to expand their global market share launched a high political level effort to con- and provide them with the necessary starting vince neighbouring countries and emerging funds to develop their next generation of space powers to subscribe to the system’s rockets. services. The issue was discussed during the Russian Prime Minister’s visit to India in In the framework of this dual strategy to March. According to Russian officials, the two reduce its dependence on third countries, countries would establish a joint venture in Russia moved to secure the future use of the India to produce Glonass-compatible naviga- Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan and to tion equipment. According to the same consolidate its plans to build a new spaceport sources Indian authorities would use the sys- in Vostochny, in the Russian Far East. In- tem’s civilian signal at first, but negotiations deed, after years of disputes the Kazakh Par- were underway to allow them to access its liament officially ratified on 9 April 2010 a more accurate military signal as well. All 2004 agreement between the two countries, navigation equipment made in India would granting Russia access to the site until 2050. also be GPS compatible213. Finally, in order to The agreement followed the general terms of improve the system’s commercial prospects the lease contract currently applied, under Russian authorities announced that the next which Russia pays an annual fee of $165 generation satellites’ civilian use signal would million for the use of the Cosmodrome. After be compatible with the GPS and Galileo sys- this development, the road opened for the tems. joint construction by the two countries of a new space launch facility in Baikonur, known In a similar fasion, Russian officials discussed as the Baiterek, in order to accommodate the with their Ukrainian counterparts the possibil- new Angara heavy rocket currently under ity of creating a joint venture for the supply development215. of Glonass services to that country as well. Although Ukraine has previously opted for At the same time, Russian officials confirmed using the GPS satellite positioning system, that preliminary work for the creation of a the recently elected government seemed to new spaceport in Vostochny were proceeding prefer the simultaneous use of both the U.S. according to plans and that its construction and Russian systems, but no final decision would begin in2011. The new launching site had been made yet. Finally, broader negotia- would be operational by 2015 and certified tions between the two countries on possible for manned spacecraft missions by 2018. The cooperative ventures in the field of communi- project’s total budget was expected to exceed cations, including Satcom’s, were expected to 400 billion Rubles ($13.5 billion). Govern- start in the second half of 2010214. ment officials accorded great importance to the new spaceport, which is hoped to boost Another major preoccupation of the Russian the Russian space launch industry’s overall space programme has been securing an in- competitiveness. In fact, the site is expected dependent space launch capability. In this to become a space industry hub, generating regard, the construction of the new space more than 20,000 jobs on a long term ba- centre will enable launches from national sis216. territory, providing Russia with the desired unrestricted access to space. Furthermore, Roscosmos has resumed the development of the Angara, its first entirely new post-soviet era rocket, which is expected to make its
212 “Russian Spacecraft Succesfully Orbits 3 Glonass 215 “Kazakhstan Finally Ratifies Baikonur Rental Deal With Satellites”. 2 Mar. 2010. RIANovosti 30 May 2010 Russia”. 9 Apr. 2010. RIANovosti 30 May 2010 <
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3.7 Japan ing independent manned flights) also receives special attention in the document219. In 2009 and 2010, Japanese space policy saw Japan’s ambitious new space policy has also important developments and changes. A long secured adequate funding, a fact that in the transitional period ended with the creation of face of the current financial crisis underscores a coherent new space strategy for the coun- its importance in the eyes of the country’s try. This is forged by two key documents, the government. The proposed 2010 space Basic Space Law (BSL) of 2008 and the Basic budget foresees a 25% increase that will Plan for Space Policy (or Basic Space Plan – bring its total sum to ¥436 billion ($4.7 bil- BSP) adopted on 2 June 2009. The first was lion). This is the total inter-ministerial fund- Japan’s first comprehensive national space ing according to the Basic Plan for Space law, aimed at regulating all space activities, Policy. However, even this sum falls short of public and corporate, and setting the strate- the ¥2.5 trillion budget through 2013, rec- gic scope of the Japanese space programme. ommended by the BSP. This is due to the The second was mandated by the BSL as the Finance Ministry’s intervention, which usually country’s fundamental space policy docu- curtails space funding in its cost revisions in ment, in order to define and materialise BSL December220. into a coherent Japanese space activities roadmap. The BSP was issued by the Strate- The principal civilian space activities funded gic Headquarters for Space Policy, the inter- in 2010 include the Daichi Earth observation ministerial governing body for Japan’s space satellite, a satellite for the Quasi Zenith GPS activities, also set up by the BSL217. At the augmentation system and the new Advanced same time, the Japanese government has Solid Rocket for launching small payloads. continued the administrative reorganisation Funding for defence space capabilities in- of space activities, with the explicit aim of cludes space situational awareness develop- simplifying governance by concentrating au- ment, a dedicated military communications thority under the single roof of the Japanese satellite, research in infra-red missile warning Cabinet Office. The Japanese Space Explora- sensor technology and microsatellites. In tion Agency (JAXA) will coordinate and fi- spite of an expected change in the Japanese nance all government space activities, follow- government in September, space pro- ing the example of NASA. grammes seemed to have secured the neces- sary political consensus to continue221. The BSP established a five year roadmap for 2009–2013, along six basic pillars. 1) The A report, requested by Japan's cabinet official realisation of a “secure, pleasant and affluent for space policy, Seiji Maehara, and delivered society” utilising space. 2) The enhancement on 20 April 2010, urges Japan's government of Japan’s national security. 3) The promotion to form a new space agency and close the of “space diplomacy”. 4) The creation of a existing JAXA. The aim is a better, quicker “vigorous future” by promoting space related and more efficient response to Japan's na- research and development. 5) Fostering of tional needs concerning space activities. strategic space industries for the 21st cen- Nowadays, JAXA’s policy and planning is in tury. 6) Considering the environment218. the responsibility of the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, while The Basic Plan clearly demonstrates the stra- the budget is part of the Ministry of Educa- tegic importance given to space for the future tion, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology prosperity and security of the entire country. (MEXT) causing unnecessary complications Furthermore, it identifies the future areas of according to this report. It proposes a new interest for the country’s space policy. These space agency controlled by a small executive are space applications, security, international committee under the direct authority of the cooperation, scientific development, industrial Prime Minister and Maehara. As 2011's space development and environment protection. It budget has to be requested in August 2010, should be noted that security in its broader the report recommends the establishment sense (military, diplomatic and economic) before this date222. becomes the cornerstone of the new policy, as it is depicted in three of the six pillars. Other key policy objectives include achieving full autonomy in space technologies and in- creasing public-corporate synergies in space activities. Finally, space exploration (includ- 219 Ibid. 220 Kallender-Umezu, Paul. “Amid Shift in Power, Japan Seeks Space Budget Hike“. Space News 7 Sept. 2009: 14. 217 “Basic Plan for Space Policy” of 2 June 2009. Strategic 221 Ibid. Headquarters for Space Policy. 30 Apr. 2010. 222 Kallender-Umezu, Paul. “Japan Urged To Break up
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3.8 China groups for space science and space-based climate research since 2008223. China’s space policy evolves around the On 14 April 2010, Wang Wenbao, head of the country’s five years’ economic development China Manned Space Engineering Office, gave plans, the current plan having been decided an overview of China's plans to build a 30-ton in 2006. China’s space programme is there- space station until 2022. The first steps fore meant to support the country’s overall would contain the launch of Tiangong 1 tar- development objectives, while maintaining a get and Shenzhou 8 doing docking and ren- comprehensive set of objectives for space dezvous experiments in 2011. This is meant activities. The main challenge for the Chinese to be the beginning of further docking, ren- programme is to mix the desire to develop dezvous and refuelling experiments including independent capabilities to the maximum manned spacecrafts like the Tiangong 3 with the need to participate as much as pos- spacelab which was to be launched between sible in international space cooperation. No 2014 and 2016. While these launches were key strategic document was published in the to be conducted by Long March 2F rockets, field of Chinese space policy in the past 12 the three modules in order to construct the months, as the current ones were published space station between 2016 and 2022 were at the beginning of the five-year plan and are to be launched by China's new heavy-lift valid until the end of 2010. New documents rockets yet in development. China's space may be expected at the beginning of the new station should be able to host three astro- planning cycle. nauts and it is planned to last 10 years224. China has a long-standing, full fledged space programme which spreads over a variety of activities. However, its main focus lays on 3.9 India manned space flight, space applications and the further development of its Long March Indian policy traditionally aims at achieving family rockets. It is difficult to distinguish social and economic development through Chinese civilian and military space activities, space activities. The Indian space programme as several systems have dual use and some currently operates under the guidelines of the key civilian projects (such as the Shenzhou current 11th five year plan (2007–2012) spacecraft) are in fact under military control. which focuses on creating space applications Another cause of confusion is that Chinese capable of providing tangible products that authorities have a strict confidentiality policy improve life conditions in the country. Self regarding their space systems and they with- reliance and space services oriented projects hold information on the costs and annual are the corner stones of India’s space policy. budgets of most of their programmes. Al- These include two operational space systems, though no accurate data is publicly available, one for satellite communications and televi- the Chinese space budget is thought by most sion broadcasting services and one for Earth experts to increase constantly over the past observation. few years. As the five year plan develops, Indian space China has also been increasing its involve- budgets have been increasing accordingly. In ment in international space cooperation, al- July 2009, the Indian Space Research Or- beit through bilateral rather than multilateral ganisation (ISRO) announced that its 2010 agreements. On 17 November 2009 for ex- budget would stand at Rp 49.79 billion ($1.04 ample, the U.S. and China announced that billion), an increase of 40% from the previous the heads of their respective space agencies year. This is the largest increase ever re- would exchange visits in 2010, in an effort to corded in ISRO’s history. The largest share of step up cooperation in space exploration, funding was set for launch vehicle develop- including human space flight. This joint ment, followed by satellite technology and statement was issued during the official visit space applications. Rocket development plans of U.S. President Barack Obama in Beijing on include the Mk 3 version of the Geosynchro- 15–18 November. An agreement between the nous Satellite Launch Vehicle (GSLV), with a two agencies to talk at least once a year was lift capability of four tons. Its first flight is reached during NASA Administrator M. Grif- expected in 2010 or 2011, soon after a new fin’s first historical visit to China, but the indigenous cryogenic upper stage engine has Chinese ASAT test in January 2007 post- poned its implementation. In spite of this, NASA and the China National Space Admini- 223 Ferster, Warren and Amy Klamper. “China, U.S. Put stration (CNSA) have formed joint working Spaceflight Cooperation Talks on Agenda”. Space News 23 Nov. 2009: 12. 224 Klamper, Amy. “Official Details 11-year Path to Developing China's Own Space Station.” Space News 19 Apr. 2010: 6.
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been tested. The Indian human space flight German based Infoterra in order to prepare a program also acquired additional funding for radar mission that Nigeria is considering228. the development of a two person capsule Nigeria is also planning to launch its second capable of attaining a 400 km orbit. In fact, satellite, the NigeriaSat-2, in the fourth quar- ISRO reaffirmed its intention to proceed to its ter of 2010 on a Dnepr rocket. The last mile- first manned flight by 2015. stone of this mission was reached in October Satellite technology research also secured 2009, when the spacecraft passed its flight funding, driven mainly by the Regional Navi- readiness reviews229. gational Satellite System. This is a proposed When it comes to South Africa, although a bill seven satellite navigation and positioning was signed in January 2010 by South African constellation to cover Indian national territory President to establish the South African Na- and neighbouring states. Other space appli- tional Space Agency (SANSA) in 2009, it is cations projects include the environment not done yet. However, in autumn 2009 the monitoring missions Oceansat-3 and Re- nominations for a board were approved. Once sourcesat-3, as well as the new cartography the space agency is established, it seems satellite Cartosat-3225. likely that one of its core programmes will be India's launch of its first self-built cryogenic dedicated to Earth observation230. stage satellite launcher failed containing the Good news can be reported from the Sum- GSAT-4 communications satellite on 15 April bandila project – the first South African gov- 2010. According to ISRO's first statements, ernment-owned satellite that was launched the failure was due to two vernuer control on 17 September 2009 with delay. It was motors igniting. However, it is not certain developed by SunSpace, the company that whether the cryogenic stage started to fire. launched also the satellite-project of the Uni- While the cryogenic engine had been tested versity of Stellenbosch called SunSat in 1999. by ISRO and other experts, it was not tested Sumbandila passes four times a day over in conditions that simulate high altitude, ac- South Africa and will collect images for gov- cording to Nambi Narayanan. The failure will ernmental use for instance in water man- probably affect and postpone the agement, agriculture, and urban planning231. Chandrayaan-2 lunar orbiter mission in 2012 and launches of communication satellites226. 3.10.2 Southeast Asia The second half of 2009 and the first half of 3.10 Emerging Space Actors 2010 was a challenging and somewhat frus- trating year for South Korea and its attempts to launch a satellite onboard the country’s 3.10.1 Africa first national space launching vehicle. The From 7 to 9 December 2009, the Third Afri- first attempt, which was made on 25 August can Leadership Conference on Space Science 2009, failed when the Korea Space Launch and Technology for Sustainable Development Vehicle (KSLV-1) did not put its payload (the took place in Algeria and as a result, Algeria, meteorological satellite STSAT-2) into orbit. Kenya, Nigeria, and South Africa signed an The vehicle, built with considerable help from agreement to build up the African Resources the Russian rocket engine manufacturing Management Satellite Constellation. The pur- pose of this constellation is to help with envi- ronmental monitoring, public health, and water as well as land usage227.
The Nigerian space programme is one of the 228 “Nigerian Space Agency signs MoU with Infoterra.” 17 most advanced of Africa. On 17 July 2009, July 2009. Infoterra. 25 May 2010. the director of the Nigerian Space Agency
ESPI Report 23 53 June 2010
company Khrunitsev, was presumed to have 3.10.3 Middle East suffered an upper stage malfunction232. In January 2010, the question of satellite In spite of this unhappy moment, South Ko- broadcasting interference came under the rea did not back down from its ambition to spotlight in the Middle East. In particular, successfully lift the vehicle and become the France’s National Frequencies Agency (ANF) 10th country to independently launch its own asked the Geneva based International Tele- satellite. Its next attempt was scheduled for communication Union (ITU) to intervene with May 2010, despite of North Korean protests Iranian authorities in order to persuade them against the launch, qualifying it as a ballistic to cease jamming of BBC World Service’s missile test233. At the same time, Korea pro- Farsi speaking programme over Iranian terri- ceeded with its plans to acquire a completely tory. French authorities were involved as the independent launching capability by 2018. programme was transmitted through the Eutelsat Hot Bird 6 satellite. According to On 22 February the Thaicom satellite fleet French sources, jamming had started during operator of Thailand announced a small 1.7% the Iranian election campaign in the spring of drop in its 2009 revenues. This result was 2009 and had not stopped since. After re- mainly attributed to a 28% fall in broadband peated failed attempts to address this issue satellite terminals sales. Thaicom provides directly with Iranian authorities, ANF ap- satellite broadband services through its dedi- pealed to the ITU. However, since the latter cated Thaicom 4 (also named Ipstar) space- is a purely regulatory organisation with no craft. The firm expected this downward trend means to enforce its decisions on its Member to reverse in 2010, as it planned to expand States, it was unclear whether its involve- its operations to India and Taiwan. On the ment would bring about any results. In the contrary, Thaicom’s conventional satellite meantime, the BBC had decided to move its communications services’ revenue increased broadcasting to another Hot Bird 6 beam and by 1.6%, in spite the retirement of its Thai- ultimately to another Eutelsat satellite over com 1A spacecraft at the end of 2009. The the region, in an attempt to overcome the company currently uses one more satellite, interference236. the Thaicom 2, which is also approaching the end of its expected operational life span. In In a separate development, on 3 February 2009 Thaicom reported $134.7 million in total Iran unveiled the country’s latest rocket, revenues234. Simorgh. A full-scale mock-up of the vehicle was demonstrated to the public during the The conflict in Thailand had impacts on Thai- Iranian national Space Day ceremonies, com as the government forced Thaicom to which also included the launch of the shut down broadcasting of the People Chan- Kavoshgar-3 rocket that carried small ani- nel Television (PCT), although PCT was not a mals to space. According to the published direct Thaicom customer. After demands to pictures of the Simorgh, the vehicle seems to its customer were not accomplished, Thaicom be 27 m long with a maximum diameter of at started to jam PCT on 7 April, but the chan- least two metres. It has two stages, with four nel moved to another Thaicom customer engines for the first and one for the second based outside Thailand. After threats of Thai- one. Iranian officials claimed that it had the com to shut down the whole C- and Ku-band capacity to lift 100 kg into orbit, but western capacity of its customer, the latter stopped analysts claimed this could be upgraded in broadcasting on 23 April. Thaicom found itself the medium term. The same analysts noted between government’s instructions, “com- that if it was used as a ballistic missile, Si- pany's employees and assets” and decided in morgh could propel a one ton warhead to a favour of the government235. range of 4,000 km. U.S. and Israeli experts were surprised to see an entirely new launcher developed by Iran, as they pre- 232 Parks, Clinton. “S. Korean Officials Investigate Launch dicted Iran would focus on evolving its exist- Failure”. Space News 26 Aug. 2009. ing rockets, namely the liquid-fuelled Safir-2
ESPI Report 23 54 June 2010 Space Policies, Issues and Trends in 2009/2010
first stage design however, could eventually 3.11 International Sectoral be used in a future Iranian ICBM237. Comparison
3.10.4 Latin America In order to assess the scope and dynamism In the past 12 months, Brazil has continued of activities, strategies and plans of the main to expand its scope of bilateral cooperation space-faring nations, key space activities, agreements on space activities in an effort to such as the ability to launch missions and the develop necessary technologies for its ambi- number and type of missions launched, must tious space programme. On 8 October for be considered. example, the country’s space agency AEB signed a technology exchange agreement 3.11.1 Launch Sector with Belgium’s Liege space centre. This four year agreement includes a wide area of tech- The possession of launch vehicles and space- nologically advanced fields of activity, from ports is a central element enabling independ- nanosatellites to space instruments valida- ence in space activities. Moreover, the num- tion238. ber of launches and the level of activity on the space bases give an indication on the The key Brazilian objective in recent years dynamism of a country in the space sector. has been the development of the national space rocket VLS-1, capable of carrying satel- In 2009, there was a total number of 78 or- lites to LEO. This project has been managed bital launches conducted by eight countries, in close cooperation with Ukrainian and Rus- Europe and the now bankrupt multinational sian companies. In April 2010, Brazil’s space consortium Sea Launch including Land agency AEB announced a schedule for the Launch (Figure 3.2) 241. programme, which foresaw the first launch of Despite the reduction of Sea Launch’s activi- a version of the VLS-1 capable of lifting small ties during 2009, the Sea Launch subsidy satellites into LEO by 2014 at the latest. This Land Launch was responsible for three mission would be the first since 2003, when launches conducted from Baikonur with an explosion of the rocket on its launching Ukrainian rockets. pad cost the lives of 21 people and put a halt to its further operational testing. Reportedly, Whereas China nearly cut in half its launches this improved version has been developed from 11 to six and lost its third position to with the assistance of Russian companies239. Europe, the U.S. increased its launches sig- nificantly (from 15 to 24) as well as Japan Finally, joint Brazilian-Chinese cooperation in (from one to three). Iran conducted its first building the next generation of Earth obser- successful and indigenous orbital launch. vation CBERS satellites for the country suf- Other new members in the field of launching fered a set back in February 2010, when AEB countries are North Korea and South Korea announced the postponement of the CBRS-3 with one launch each, however, their at- spacecraft launching to 2011. The delay was tempts both failed. attributed to technical problems identified 240 during the system’s design review . As mentioned above, the hierarchy changed in 2009. Russia (with 29 launches) and the USA (24 launches) still hold the first and sec- ond positions and represent 68% of total launches. Europe now occupies the next posi- tion with six launches (also in 2008) whereas
237 Opall, Barbara. “Israeli Missile Experts: Simorgh Sets Iran on Path to ICBM“. Space News 15 Feb. 2010: 14. 238 “Brazil, Belgium Sign Space Cooperation Agreement.” 08 Oct. 2009. Space Mart. 28 May 2010.
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29 30
24 25
20
15
Number of orbital launches of orbital Number 10 7 6
4 5 3 2 1 1 1
0 Russia USA Europe China Multinational Japan India Iran North Korea South Korea
Figure 3.2: Total worldwide orbital launches per entity in 2009 (Source: FAA242)
9
8 243
7
6
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4
launches orbital of Number 3
2
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t r r M 2 5 U 5 le G 2 o B 4 A 3 V 2 e vy 1 1 B M -1 4 u K fi 2 L L a e z s tt F h k L a -2 h L z n a r n -2 3 V h a n a g X S n lt n u la u z c o S lt c S u lo e p o L c t o S n s 3 to e ia y t h u r R 3 e H r P y c e lc H s r o t o u t o D r o A S y a it- D a o y H n a o S a in ro d r i r A S o M n M S C 4 D F m K M M P o u n P S g e g a s g p a e Z lt o e T Z on on e K on a L L D L T
Figure 3.3: Worldwide orbital launches per launch system in 2009 (Source: FAA243)
242 Federal Aviation Administration. “Commercial Space Transportation …” 243 Federal Aviation Administration. “Commercial Space Transportation: 2009 Year in Review.” Jan. 2010. Washington DC: FAA. 30 April 2010.
ESPI Report 23 56 June 2010 Space Policies, Issues and Trends in 2009/2010
one can observe a bigger gap between the well as the frequency of launches conducted main launching countries and the rest due to from its different spaceports, are important China’s reduction of launches. The launches indicators of the dynamism of a country’s were distributed over 29 launch systems, space activities. In 2009, 16 launch sites with Russia and the U.S. each having used were used, including one mobile platform eight different ones, China having used three (Sea Launch Odyssey Platform). This is two different launch systems and Japan having more than in 2008 (Figure 3.4)245. The used two launch systems. Europe, Sea United States used four launch sites (Cape Launch, India, Iran, North Korea, and South Canaveral/Kennedy Space Center, Vanden- Korea each used only one single launch sys- berg, Kwajalein and Wallops) and therefore tem (Figure 3.3). The total amount of differ- displaced Russia as the leading country in ent launch systems increased by nearly 40% diversity in 2009. Russia indeed increased the compared to 2008. Proton M was again the number of launches but it downsized the mostly used launch system, with nine number of its launch sites and concentrated launches, followed by Delta 2 with eight all launches on Baikonur and Plesetsk. As in launches, Ariane 5 and Soyuz U complete the 2008, China used three launch sites, namely podium with seven launches each. The distri- Taiyuan, Xichang and Jiuquan. Europe, Ja- bution is more uneven than in the previous pan, India, Iran, North Korea and South Ko- year, with 14 launch systems having served rea each used one launch site. just once compared to only four in 2008. In 2009, Baikonur was even more the busiest The use of space transportation infrastructure space base, with 24 launches, five more than is another indicator that helps assess the in 2008 and representing one third of the “space hierarchy”, as space bases are core total launches in the year. Also Cape Canav- assets for independent access to space. The eral experienced an increase and was the number of space bases used by a country, as base for 16 launches (seven launches in
25
20
15
10 Number of orbital launches of orbital Number
5
0
) ) ) D) N N) R) US IN IRN) USA) (FRA) (USA) ( CH (USA PRK) ( USA) ( (R (CHN) (CH ( i ( (KO (Mob) ( n in r o an m s ral tsk SC e n onur (KAZ)e n n- op k a Nar tfor all lese Kourou enberg w uda a Jiuquan Taiyua Xichang Sem Pl W Bai P nd Kwajal us Dha M SL Va Tanegashima (JPN) h Cape Canav Satis
Figure 3.4: Worldwide orbital launches per launch sites in 2009 (Source: FAA244)
244 Federal Aviation Administration. “Commercial Space Transportation: 2009 Year in Review.” Jan. 2010. Washington DC: FAA. 245 The item ‘Cape Canaveral (USA)’ includes both the 30 April 2010. Cape Canaveral AFS and the Kennedy Space Center. The
ESPI Report 23 57 June 2010
2011) and is closing the gap on Baikonur. launched. Russia and Europe247 completed The European space base Kourou lost its po- the podium, each representing 22% of all sition from 2008 and – with seven launches – missions. Chinese missions accounted for came behind Plesetsk (eight launches). In only 6% of the total missions and indicate a conclusion, one can observe greater imbal- huge relative, and also absolute, reduction of ance than in the year before when consider- missions compared to its previous share of ing the different frequency in the use of the 13% in 2008 with the total number of mis- launch sites. sions halving from 14 to seven. Notable is the high concentration of missions 3.11.2 Missions Launched among three actors and the large gap be- tween the United States, Russia and Europe In order to complete the assessment of the on the one hand, being responsible for 76% ambitions and capabilities of space-faring of missions, and the other countries on the nations, it is important to consider the num- other. 14 countries launched just one mis- 246 ber and variety of missions launched by sion. each country. As for Europe, in 2009 France overtook Ger- In 2009, 26 countries and one international many with six French missions against five organisation (ESA) launched at least one missions launched by Germany, followed by payload in space (Figure 3.5). The United Spain with two missions, and Norway, the States was again the world leader in terms of Netherlands, Switzerland, and the United the number of missions launched with a 30- Kingdom, which launched one mission each. percent-share of the total number of missions In comparison to 2008, the German share of
40 37
35
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25
25
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15 Number of missions launched of missions Number 10 7 6 5 5 5 5 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
0
y A a A ia in s lia l a ay m S an a ran e rea U ES Ind pa nada and r I Ita ysia or w o land ussi China rmany Jap S a l a K K urkey gdo R France C er ust Nor h zer T in Ge h A Bermuda Mal th K Argentina Indonesia or ut wit o S ed Net N South AfricaS it he T Un
United Arab Emirates
Figure 3.5: Number of missions launched into space by country/institution in 2009 (Source: FAA248)
247 Agglomerate Europe comprises ESA, France, Germany, Italy, Norway, the Netherlands, Spain, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom. 248 Federal Aviation Administration. “Commercial Space Transportation: 2009 Year in Review.” Jan. 2010. 246 “Mission” is defined as comprising all the payloads Washington DC: FAA. 30 April 2010. launched, both commercial and non-commercial, including
ESPI Report 23 58 June 2010 Space Policies, Issues and Trends in 2009/2010
the missions decreased from nine missions to 2009 with seven launches, but 25 missions, five in 2009. again as many as Russia. China comparably lost some ground with respect to the number It is also important to look at the type of of launches as well as the number of mis- missions launched, as only few countries sions, but still remains a strong space nation. could display a broad variety of missions (Figure 3.6). The inequality in this field is Japan made up lost ground and regained the striking, as 17 countries launched only one position it lost last year as the fifth most im- type of mission. The USA had again the most portant space-power, thereby stopping the diverse set of missions, as they launched 13 negative trend of the last three years. India, different kinds of missions. They were fol- which occupied the fifth place in 2008, re- lowed by Russia (eight types) and China249 mained solid in 2009 in terms of launch and (four types). It is however noteworthy that mission numbers (Figure 3.7). when considered as a whole, Europe launched seven different kinds of missions.
3.11.3 Overall Assessment The overall picture of a hierarchy in space activities was confirmed in 2009; however, a smaller shift can be noticed. The United States and Russia remained the two domi- nant actors in space. Whereas Russia was still the world leader in the launch sector in 2009, the U.S. occupied first place in terms of mis- sions launched. Europe had a solid year in
40
35
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15 Number of missions
10
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a a a a a y s ia n i n i ia ea ea m any nds ali s r USA ance ESA Ind pain nti a tr e Iran Italy or rate uss Chi r m Japan S l s muda lays Africa i R F er u Norway Turke ingdo rge Canada A er Ma th Ko th h K itzerland Ger A B Indon r w Em eth out S N No Sou S ab The d Ar United K ite n U
Communications Communications Military Early Warning Meteorological Earth Observation Earth Observation Military Tech Demonstration Navigation Science ISS Hardware ISS Human ISS Supply Manned flights
Figure 3.6: Types of missions launched into orbit in 2009 (Source: FAA250)
250 Federal Aviation Administration. “Commercial Space Transportation: 2009 Year in Review.” Jan. 2010. Washington DC: FAA. 249 In some cases, it is difficult to assess the exact nature 30 April 2010. of the Chinese missions, as there are suspicions about the
ESPI Report 23 59 June 2010
40 37
35
30 29 25 25 25 24
20
15
10
Number of launched rockets and payloads 7 7 5 5 6 3 0 3 Missions USA 2 Russia Europe China Launches Japan India
Figure 3.7: Assessment of major space powers’ activities in 2009 (Source: FAA251)
251 Federal Aviation Administration. “Commercial Space Transportation: 2009 Year in Review.” Jan. 2010. Washington DC: FAA. 30 April 2010.
ESPI Report 23 60 June 2010 Space Policies, Issues and Trends in 2009/2010
4. European Institutional Market
In this chapter, institutional space spending and services are also of military usefulness. in Europe is described along distinct catego- Direct Member States’ contributions to the ries that are explained accordingly. The European Union do not officially have a space amounts are put into perspective and com- related designation and shall not be taken pared with each other. This enables the un- into account. Nevertheless, in recent years derstanding of important ratios and propor- EU funds have been increasingly used to fi- tions within European space activities. It also nance space activities. sets a basis for comparison with space actors National space budgets usually have three outside Europe. tiers: civilian, military and space related aca- demic research. In the case of countries that have instituted national space agencies, 4.1 European Institutional these generally centrally fund the first and the third tiers, whereas the second remains Features under defence ministries’ management. In countries that prefer less centralised ap- European space programmes develop simul- proaches, as for example was the case in the taneously on three distinct levels: national, United Kingdom until recently, budgetary intergovernmental (e.g. ESA, EUMETSAT) and lines are dispersed throughout government supranational (European Union). This struc- agencies, which makes them more difficult to ture results in overlapping complementary account for. budgetary lines, which are evident in the diagram shown in Figure 4.1. Apart from this vertical delineation, space related budgets are also dispersed horizon- Space Budget tally among national, bilateral and multilat- Components eral space cooperation agreements. For ex- ample, some European countries that are engaged in multinational cooperation through their participation in the European Space ESA Agency (ESA) also have bilateral agreements contribution civilian on military space activities between them. In this way, the same or similar military space European projects are simultaneously funded within EUMETSAT European institutions (notably the EU Com- contribution mission and the European Defence Agency) and outside them. These are represented in national space executed by the blue area of Figure 4.1. The same applies programme national space to academic research and development pro- (incl R&D) agency/office jects that are channelled both through ESA and bilateral scientific cooperation agree- national others ments. (MoD, Univ.,...) Not all European countries invest in military or intelligence space activities, and the lion’s share of European institutional spending is = military/intelligence dedicated to civilian activities. The total sum Figure 4.1: General structure of space budgets of European institutional spending on space in 2009 was around €6.5 billion which is As a result of the abovementioned structure, around half a billion less than in 2008. That national space budgets in Europe usually will be detailed in the following sections. The have both a European and a national compo- sum is split into 91% for the civilian sector nent. The first consists of contributions to and 9% for the military one, and indicates a ESA and EUMETSAT and is considered as drop of the military share from 18%. Not only civilian for the purposes of this report, as in relative numbers – the U.S. spends an both organisations are broadly labelled as estimated share of 58% on security-related civilian in spite of the fact that their products space activities – but also in absolute num-
ESPI Report 23 61 June 2010
bers, these militarily used funds are signifi- 4.3. European Space Agency cantly lower than those spent in the United States. (ESA)
The European Space Agency budget repre- sents the largest share of civilian space fund- 4.2 Civilian Space Expendi- ing in Europe. In 2009 the ESA budget ture reached €3.59 billion, up from €3.04 billion in 2008. ESA funding derives principally from Around €5.9 billion of public European funds Member States’ contributions, but it also in- were spent for the civilian space sector. The cludes Canadian participation as an associ- ESA budget rose and remained the largest at ated Member State and third-party funding €3.59 billion (now about 61% of the total for specific programmes. Member States’ European civilian space expenditures), while contributions to the mandatory ESA pro- national programmes decreased and ac- grammes are calculated as a fixed percent- counted for approximately €1.8 billion age of their Gross Domestic Product (GDP). (around 31%). The EU again appeared as a In the case of additional optional pro- significant spender with an estimated annual grammes, the level of involvement is freely budget of about €750 million (13%), whereas decided by participating Member States the EUMETSAT budget increased to €229 themselves. million (4%). Figure 4.2 shows the budgets of Major areas of ESA funded activities in 2009 these four constituents in comparison to included Telecommunications and Navigation 2008. (19.7%, down from 20.1% in 2008), Launcher Operations (18.4%), Earth Obser- vation (16.3%), Science (12.1%) and Human Spaceflight (10.8%, up from 8.71% in 2008). ESA budget allocations are depicted in Figure 4.3.
4000
3590 3500 3030
3000
2500 1953
2000 1835 Million euros Million 1500
1000 750
750 500 168
0 2008 229 ESA 2009 National programmes EU EUMETSAT
Figure 4.2: Estimated European civil public expenditures in 2009
ESPI Report 23 62 June 2010 Space Policies, Issues and Trends in 2009/2010
10,8% 0,3% 6,7% 5,5% 1,3% 3,2% 3,1% 0,1% 12,1% 8,9%
16,3% 18,4%
2,6% 10,8%
General budget Associated budget Financed by third parties Cooperating states Science Launchers Human Spaceflight Microgravity Earth Observation Telecommunications Technology Exploration Navigation Space Situational Awareness Figure 4.3: ESA programmatic budget allocations for 2009 (Source: ESA252)
Member States’ contributions to ESA in 2009 tributor and even extended its share to €716 increased to €2.82 billion from €2.42 billion million in 2009, representing 25.4% of the in 2008. France remained the biggest con- total. It was followed by Germany (23.0%),
800 716
700 648
600
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184 200 161
99 94 100 56 45 43 27 22 20 16 14 13 13 7
0
y m in d n rk al rg ds e ay a da nd nce Italy do ium n an a la ug a Spa g rw m rt ng in o Ireland Fr erman tzerl Swed No Austria Can F Greece G Ki Bel Den P d etherla uxembou te N Swi L e h Uni T Czech Republic
Figure 4.4: Member States contributions to ESA budget for 2009 (Source: ESA253)
252 European Space Agency. The European Space Agency. Paris: ESA, Sept. 2009.
ESPI Report 23 63 June 2010
Italy (13.1%), UK (9.6%) and Spain (6.5%). 63.8% of the total (Figure 4.5). Hungary These five countries accounted for 77.6% of became a Member State in October 2008. It ESA Member States’ contributions (Figure contributed 0.71% of the total budget to the 4.4). An additional €420 million came from mandatory programmes of EUMETSAT in sources other than direct Member States 2009. Cooperating states contribute 50% of a contributions254. full membership fee. In this way, for example, Bulgaria accounted for 0.18% of EUMETSAT’s budget in 2009256. 4.4 EUMETSAT In 2009 the EUMETSAT budget rose signifi- cantly to €229.1 million, from €168 million in The vast majority of EUMETSAT’s budget the preceding year and €205 million in 2007. comes from contributing member and Major funded programmes in 2009 cooperating states. Members’ contributions included Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) are calculated on the basis of their Gross satellites with €92.4 million, the EUMETSAT National Income (GNI), rather than GDP. In Polar System (EPS) with €85.3 million (up 2009 Germany was the largest contributor from €73.1 million in 2008), and preparation with 19.9% (down from 21.4% in 2008), for the Meteosat Third Generation (MTG) followed by the UK with 16.2% (down from satellites with €11.7 million. An additional 16.6%), France with 15.2% (down from €11.7 million was devoted to the general 15.7%), and Italy with 12.5% (down from budget. The MSG project replaced EPS as the 12.6%). These four countries accounted for organisation’s biggest cost factor in 2009257.
50 45.6
45
38.3 40 34.9 35
28.6 30
25 Million eurosMillion 20 17.9
15 10.4
10 6.5 6.1 6.0 5.4 5.0 4.8 4.2 3.9 3.2 2.9 5 2.8 2.1 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.5
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y y a y a ce l nd m ri ce nd nd r lic i ta a iu ke a b n I r rway l tugal la ga ran Spain u ust o nmark in r re n pu F T A N e Gree F o I u e Croatia itzerl Belg Sweden P H R Slove Germany w D xembourg S Netherlands vak Lu lo United Kingdom The S
Figure 4.5: Member States contributions to EUMETSAT for 2009 (Source: EUMETSAT255)
256 Ibid. 257 Ibid. EUMETSAT. Annual Report 2008. Darmstadt: EUMETSAT, June 2009. 254 Ibid.
ESPI Report 23 64 June 2010 Space Policies, Issues and Trends in 2009/2010
120 102.36
100 92.4 85.3 73.1 80 61.62
60 48.6 Million euros 40 29.09
24.4 20 3.82 8.11 28.7 3.9 10.6 0 11.7 2007 0 3.9 7.5 2008 7 stem y 2009 S ar eration on ti Jason-2 Pol Gen era get e AT ud ond B S c Gen ral ramm Se t a EUMET at Third Gene s tion Prog eteos eo si M et M Tran at s eo Met
Figure 4.6 Major programmatic allocations of EUMETSAT in 2009, 2008, and 2007
100%
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0% l y s rk g y a m d lic ny d om a Ital b a den d ur w land m lan e Spain ma or France r r Austria Irelan Finland Sw en ing mbo N Portug Belgiu Greece Ge the D K e ch Repu d ux Switzer e ite L z e Ne n C Th U
National programmes ESA
Figure 4.7 Estimated shares of European national institutional investment in civilian space of ESA members in 2009 (Based on Euroconsult data)
ESPI Report 23 65 June 2010
4.5.1 France 4.5 National Agencies As was the case last year France, with €1.8 billion in 2009, was the country with the larg- est national civilian spending in Europe. Most of the 18 ESA Member States imple- Funding for the national space agency CNES ment their own national space programmes accounted for approximately €1.1 billion, through a dedicated space agency, or some while the French contribution to ESA was kind of space activities’ administrative body. again €685 million. EUMETSAT received €36 Understandably, this situation leads to a million out of the French civilian space spend- great variety of policy priorities, and opera- ing258. tional needs across Europe. However, the bulk of respective countries’ national space On 28 January 2010 officials form the French investment is predominantly channelled space agency CNES announced that the through ESA programmes (Figure 4.7) agency’s R&D budget for 2010 would be re- duced to €21.3 million. This figure was ap- Public spending for space activities remains proximately 5% lower compared to 2009 and quite diversified within Europe. In 2009, the 17% compared to 2008. The overall CNES three biggest spenders, France, Germany, budget for 2010 was expected to reach €749 and Italy, again accounted for the vast ma- million. Negotiations between CNES and the jority of European civilian space expenditure, French government were also under way for constituting around 88% together (Figure the establishment of the agency’s next five- 4.8) compared to 83.5% in 2008. These year plan through 2015. CNES officials did countries and their space agencies, the Cen- not foresee any increase in the budget’s non- tre National d’Etudes Spatiales (CNES), the ESA segment. As a result, the French space Deutsches Zentrum für Luft und Raumfahrt agency was expected to focus on prioritising (DLR) and the Agenzia Spaziale Italiana (ASI) among future technologies to be developed. are briefly described below in terms of budg- It would also work on improving quality man- etary figures. agement, so as to ensure that only techno- logically mature and asserted systems would be integrated into specific programmes.
1200 1089
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49.21 42 35 30 18.6 13 9 5.07 4.78 4.33 2.2 1 0 0 0 0
y s d k ay d taly n om en tria ar gal n nce I d nd d rw ourg u a land ra Spain la nlan b reece el r Aus nm o Ir e F er Fi Swe Belgium e N G tz Germa th D Port e Luxem Swi e N h United King T Czech Republic
Figure 4.8: Estimation of European national space budgets of ESA members in 2009 (Based on Euroconsult data)
258 EUMETSAT. Annual Report 2008. Darmstadt: EUMETSAT, June 2009.
Among the key technologies funded in 2010 4.6 European Union were the development of small satellite bus platforms, new Earth observation sensors and The increasing involvement of the European radiation-hardened components259. Union authorities in space activities has been In February 2010 the French space agency a key plank in the continent’s space pro- CNES announced it could receive up to €750 grammes during the last few years. Accord- million from the government’s economic ing to its five year 2007–2013 plan, common stimulus package, expected to be voted by EU funding for space projects amounts to the country’s parliament in March. Two thirds €5.25 billion or approximately €750 million of these funds would be channelled directly to on an annual basis. Major EU funded initia- space programmes, including preliminary tives include the Galileo satellite positioning work on the future Ariane 6 launcher. Fur- constellation and the Global Monitoring for thermore, an additional €250 million could be Environment and Security (GMES) satellite secured for funding broadband services programmes261. communications satellites built by CNES, in European Commission funding for space ac- the framework of a government programme tivities is also provided from its €50.5 billion to increase rural broadband internet connec- 7th Framework Programme for Research and tivity in the country. This additional funding Technological Development (FP7) from 2007 was timely for CNES, as the agency’s budget to 2013. The plan is divided into four action had not increased in 2010. More precisely, areas: cooperation, ideas, people and capa- CNES’ participation to ESA projects in 2010 bilities, with the first receiving most of the amounted to €685 million, not adjusted for funding. Space activities are included in this inflation, while the French national space framework, with a projected €1.43 billion (or programme rose by merely 1.5%, to €749 €204 million on an annual basis) budget. million. However, CNES officials expected a However, funding is not equally divided from considerable budget increase in 2011, within year to year but it depends on the quantity the framework of the agency’s revised me- and quality of projects proposed each time. dium-term planning for 2011–2015. Under this plan, French contribution to ESA in 2011 The bulk of this budget is consumed by the would rise to €770 million, or 12.4%, and it European Commission’s flagship programmes will also be adjusted for inflation throughout GMES and Galileo. GMES accounts for almost the five year period. This increased rate of 85%, or €1.2 billion of the total funding. spending would allow CNES to repay its €325 However, space systems are not yet consid- million dept to ESA by 2015260. ered on their own merit by European authori- ties. Instead, space assets are seen as en- ablers for promoting other common EU poli- 4.5.2 Germany cies, such as security, technological innova- In 2009, Germany spent the second largest tion and industrial competitiveness. In all, EU amount on civilian space activities. In total, space policy is principally focused on space the budget was about €926 million, €231 applications and their broader benefits for million of which was allocated to its national other EU policy objectives. In this sense, the programme managed by DLR and €646 mil- EU Commission expects space technology lion was the German contribution to ESA. The investment to diffuse its benefits to fuel the German share of the EUMETSAT budget ac- wider economy and especially small and me- counted for €49 million. dium size enterprises activity. The FP7 is thus considered complementary to ESA research projects, which are more scientific-oriented 4.5.3 Italy and space exploration related262. The third biggest civilian space budget in The third space call in the framework of FP7 2009 was the Italian one, which amounted to (FP7-SPACE-2010-1) was published on 30 approximately €699 million. €301 million was July 2009. Its volume reached €114 million, the budget of ASI, the national space agency. more than double than the previous call’s The Italian contribution to ESA was an esti- €51.5 million. The call had three main activity mated €370 million and Italy spent around lines: space-based applications at the service €29 million in contributing to EUMETSAT. 261 European Parliament. Report on Space and Security. 2008/2030 (INI) of 10 June 2008.
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of European society, strengthening space satellites needed to build the 22 spacecraft activities foundations, and cross-cutting is- initial operational capability constellation sues263. Funding also included some work on would be ordered either from OHB or EADS Galileo, principally with two calls for tender Astrium Satellites. Arianespace secured the (2009/S 96-137211 and 2009/S 136- launch services contract to provide Soyuz 198082) on 20 May and 18 July 2009 with a rockets carrying two satellites each. The con- budget of €1 million each. The calls ad- tracts were handled by ESA, on behalf of the dressed Galileo Frequency Regulatory and European Commission. The remaining three Standardisation Support264. procurement contracts should be awarded by mid-2010266. The European Parliament and the European Council have allocated €3.4 billion through GMES will deliver services of public interest, 2013 for the Galileo satellite positioning sys- and it is foreseen to fund those publicly as tem and the European Geostationary Naviga- well. As stated above, the GMES budget within tion Overlay Service (EGNOS), in which €400 FP7 is around €1.2 billion. This, however, is million from FP7 was also included. Other not sufficient, and in general the EU budget is funding sources for space activities include not enough to drive GMES to its full potential. the Trans-European Transport Networks GMES will accordingly be financed through a (TEN-T), part of Trans-European Networks multi-layer approach involving European, (TEN) and the Entrepreneurship and Innova- intergovernmental and national levels. The tion Programme (EIP), which is part of the details are not settled yet, but the ESA worked Competitiveness and Innovation Framework out a long-term scenario document for the Programme (CIP) of the European Commis- estimations of the costs. According to this sion. The resulting total volume of €3.4 billion analysis, the financial effort would represent for European satellite navigation over a pe- €4 billion for the period from 2014 to 2020. riod of seven years equals an average budget This sum includes annual costs of €430 million of €485 million per year. In 2010 the Com- for operational activities and €170 million for mission should present its funding proposals research and development267. beyond 2014265. Procurement of the Galileo system began in July 2008 with six work packages: system support, ground mission segment, ground control segment, space segment, launch ser- vices and operations. Given the complexity of the procurement process, the European Commission and ESA have opted for a pro- curement scheme called “Competitive Dia- 266 logue”, described in the EC Financial Regula- “Commission awards major contracts to make Galileo tion Implementing Rules. In September operational early 2014” 7 Jan 2010. European Commission 19 Mar. 2010. 2008, 11 candidates were short listed. In
ESPI Report 23 68 June 2010 Space Policies, Issues and Trends in 2009/2010
United Kingdom 28% France 37%
Spain 6% Italy 7% Germany 22%
Figure 4.9: Estimated share of military space spending in Europe in 2009 (Based on Euroconsult data)
security-related space spending remained stable. 4.7 Security-Related Space The European Union Satellite Centre (EUSC) Expenditures in Torrejón, Spain, remains the only opera- tional European Union agency in the field of Security-related space expenditures in Earth observation utilisation. The EUSC oper- Europe are difficult to assess on a national ated in 2009 on a €12.2 million budget. level. Only few countries are directly involved Funding was increased by 4.5% by compari- in such endeavours, with some smaller coun- son to the 2008 budget (€11.6 million). The tries trying to gain access to relevant capa- EUSC’s operations build upon data from bilities via cooperation agreements. Further- Member States’ military satellites and even more, the figures are to be taken only as more so on commercially acquired im- 269 estimations, due to the incertitude surround- agery . ing classified spending. It also has to be In 2009, the European Defence Agency (EDA) stated that money spent on dual-use pro- developed a growing interest in space. Its grammes or research is not included in this policy had been to promote the consolidation overview. For instance, this is the case con- and pooling of European needs in security- cerning the French CNES expenditures. related space programmes and to coordinate In total, European institutional spending for the development of critical space technolo- security-related space activities is estimated gies on a European level. The total EDA at approximately €558 million, which indi- budget for 2009 can be estimated to amount cates a decrease of 32% compared 2008. to €30 million, slightly bellow the €32 million spent in 2008. However, funding dedicated to France has historically been the largest space activities remains marginal and hard to spender in this domain and it continued to be determine accurately270. so with a corresponding budget of about €205 million in 2009, which nevertheless represents a 48% decrease as well. 269 Typically, the procurement of satellite sys- European Union Satellite Center. EUSC Annual Report 2008. Madrid: EUSC, 2009.
ESPI Report 23 69 June 2010
On 3 November for example, European De- requirements. In contrast, the central pur- fence Agency (EDA) representatives an- chasing agent favoured by EDA would be able nounced that the Agency was finalising a to pool together demand by region, fre- €130.000 contract with London Satellite Ex- quency and bandwidth requirements, thus change, an Astrium Services subsidiary, to achieving a 30% to 50% cost reduction by establish a central European Union database negotiating longer term lease agreements for purchasing commercial communication with commercial operators271. satellite services. This would be the first step Finally, one of the key planks in the EDA’s in an effort to pool services demands from all policy in the past 12 months has been its European Defence authorities into a single increased cooperation with other European contracting vehicle. According to the EDA, EU institutions and especially its trilateral dia- Member States currently spend more than logue with the European Commission and the €50 million on commercial satellite services, European Space Agency. paying higher spot prices for them as they cannot accurately estimate future capacity
271 “Pending Deal Would Pool Europe’s Satcom Demand”. Space News 9 Nov. 2009: 13.
ESPI Report 23 70 June 2010 Space Policies, Issues and Trends in 2009/2010
5. Space Industry Evolutions
ise Cosmo-SkyMed images. According to company officials, e-Geos was close to strik- 5.1 Europe ing a deal to supply images to clients in the Middle East274. On 10 June, the French commercial image In a related development, e-Geos announced satellite operator Spot Image assured its on 19 November that it had secured a con- customers that it would be willing to field two tract from the European Space Agency (ESA) new medium resolution satellites, Spot 6 and to provide radar and optical images to the EU Spot 7, starting in 2012. The two new satel- Global Monitoring for Environment and Secu- lites should complement the highly successful rity project (GMES). The €3.5 million deal Spot 5 that currently accounts for the major- included providing radar data from Italy’s ity of the company’s revenues and is ex- Cosmo-Skymed constellation and optical data pected to operate until 2014. However, Spot from U.S. commercial operators GeoEye and Image declined to give more specific details DigitalGlobe275. on the project, as the financing decision had not yet been made by its principal share- On 20 July, Thales Alenia Space secured a holder, Astrium Services, which was still ne- €17.9 million contract from ESA to build the gotiating on this issue with the French gov- Experimental Re-Entry Test Bed (EXPERT). ernment272. This will be a 440 kg bullet-shaped re-entry capsule that will be launched for a sub-orbital A few days later, on 18 June, Astrium Ser- flight onboard a Russian submarine launched vices announced that financing issues had Volna rocket, as early as October 2010. The been resolved and that the company would capsule is expected to offer valuable data for cover the approximately $500 million cost of the development of ESA’s Advanced Re-entry the two satellites, without asking for any Vehicle (ARV). ARV will be an enhanced, at- financial support from the French govern- mosphere re-entry capable design of ESA’s ment. However, Spot Image officials asked Automated Transfer Vehicle (ATV) that car- for some kind of commitment from the ries supplies to the International Space Sta- French government to buy images from the tion (ISS). ARV first flight is scheduled for future satellites. Companies in the United 2016276. States (such as GeoEye and DigitalGlobe) already operate in this fashion. In general, it In October, NATO announced it would be appears that the commercial image industry conducting an open competition to acquire is in the middle of a transition from a fully additional satellite communication services government financed business model to a for its troops in Afghanistan. Since 2004, mixed private-public financing, based on NATO’s Consultation, Command and Control guarantees of future government con- Agency (NC3A) has had a $659 million tracts273. agreement with a consortium using band- width on Skynet, Syracuse-3 and Sicral satel- On 1 July, satellite services provider Tele- lites to provide SHF and Ultra-high frequency spazio and the Italian Space Agency ASI communications. Extra bandwidth is indis- agreed on the creation of a joint commercial pensable, however, as Afghanistan communi- platform for selling data from the Cosmo- cation infrastructures are very limited. Due to SkyMed radar imaging satellite constellation. security reasons, the competition would be A new company called e-Geos has been set limited to NATO Member States only. In addi- up for this purpose in Rome, with Telespazio tion to current providers, Germany, Greece, holding 80% of its shares and ASI 20%. Un- der the agreement, the former transferred its Earth observation division to the new com- pany and the latter its rights to commercial- 274 De Selding, Peter B. “Italian Company Formed To Market Cosmo-SkyMed Imagery”. Space News 13 July 272 De Selding, Peter B. “Spot Commits to New Satellites, 2009: 6. But Funding Questions Remain”. Space News 15 June 275 “Italy’s e-Geos Lands GMES Radar, Optical Imagery 2009: 1. Deal”. Space News 23 Nov. 2009: 8. 273 De Selding, Peter B. ”Astrium Services Cleared To Buy 276 De Selding, Peter B. “Thales Alenia To Build ESA’s New Spot Satellite”. Space News 22 June 2009: 13. Expert Test Vehicle”. Space News 27 July 2009: 11.
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Spain, Turkey and the United States all have for more than 15% of 2009’s commercial satellites that could be used to fill the gap277. satellite sales worldwide. The spacecrafts would be delivered at 6 month intervals start- On 27–29 October the Satellite Users Inter- ing in 2012. Apart from featuring more than ference Reduction Group (SUIRG) met in 60 Ku-band transponders for direct broadcast Cannes, France. The Group has been trying services each, the spacecrafts would also for years to raise industry awareness of the have 2 to 4 Ka-band payloads. This would be importance of interference for commercial a step forward in the company’s effort to communication satellites operators. During develop next-generation broadband commu- the meeting, Intelsat, SES and Inmarsat de- nication services in Europe. Furthermore, the cided to create a voluntary satellite database series’ fourth satellite was expected to carry named Space Data Association (SDA) and a navigation payload for the EU Commission’s based on the Isle of Man. Its mission will be Egnos programme, designed to enhance GPS to collect voluntary data contributions from signal reliability280. commercial operators on their respective satellites, such as satellite location, broadcast In a parallel development, SES announced frequencies and power, signal polarisation that it was also negotiating with Astrium Ser- and coverage areas. Using this database vices the sale of its German-based ND Sat- should shorten the time needed to localise Com subsidiary. The company held a 25% interference sources. Other commercial op- participation in MilSat Services, the satellite erators were expected to join in the effort, communication provider contracted by the but questions remained on whether they German military to operate its two Sat- would be willing to distribute such sensitive ComBw communication satellites. EADS As- information. Furthermore, although this ini- trium Services, an Astrium Satellites sister tiative is expected to contribute to limiting company, held the remaining 75%281. unintentional interference, it will still have to On 21 December 2009, Avanti Communica- overcome the absence of a legal framework tions of London announced it had secured a that would oblige operators to cease activities $309 million in loans from U.S. and French that create interference278. export credit agencies (the Export-Import In November, SDA begun to take form as its Bank and Coface respectively) to build its three founding companies issued a Request next generation Hylas 2 Ka-band broadband for Proposals (RfP) for a contract to design services satellite. The spacecraft, which was and build the database. The RfP called for the scheduled for launch in 2012, would weight creation of a central Space Data Centre on 3.1 tons and provide an 8.28 gigahertz ca- the Isle of Man, as well as two more backup pacity to up to 1 million subscribers, repre- data storage servers on different continents. senting a significant capabilities increase These would probably operate from within from its predecessor Hylas 1. According to SDA member companies. The centre would the package’s terms, Avanti would sell 21.5 provide accurate and timely information on million shares in order to raise £86 million on commercial satellites and would also act as a its own to finance the project282. registry of interference incidents and sources. In a related development, commercial satel- SDA’s members also signalled their future lite fleet operator SES also announced on 21 intention to link the database to the U.S. December 2009 that it had secured a Space Surveillance Network and to invite €522.89 million loan, backed by the French operators from Russia, China and India to export-credit agency Coface, to pay for the participate as well279. construction of 4 new satellites by EADS As- trium. The spacecrafts, named Astra 2E, 2F, On 30 November, satellite fleet operator SES 2G and 5B were scheduled for launch be- Astra announced its intention to order four tween 2012 and 2014. SES officials claimed direct broadcast television spacecrafts from that the company, which had a €4 billion EADS Astrium Satellites, at a total cost of accumulated dept, could find credit in the approximately €500 million. This contract open market and did not necessarily need would constitute the biggest single satellite Coface’s backing. However, they added that order ever made by SES and it would account its support was welcome as it allowed them to borrow on lower interest rates and to 277 Singer, Jeremy. “NATO Readies Competition for Satcom Services”. Space News 2 Nov. 2009: 12. 278 De Selding, Peter B. “Satellite Operators To Create 280 De Selding, Peter B. “SES Selects Astrium to Build Database To Combat Interference”. Space News 2 Nov. Four Direct Broadcast Satellites”. Space News 30 Nov. 2009: 20. 2009: 4. De Selding, Peter B. “Execs Say Interference is Mostly De Selding, Peter B. “Four Satellite Order Bolsters SES’s Unintentional, but Often Hard to Resolve”. Space News 2 Direct Broadcast Presence”. Space News 7 Dec. 2009: 6. Nov. 2009: 20. 281 Ibid. 279 De Selding, Peter B. “Satellite Operators Solicit Bids To 282 “Avanti Gets Export-Credit Backing for Ka-band Satel- Create Orbital Database”. Space News 23 Nov. 2009: 6. lite“. Space News 4 Jan. 2010: 8.
ESPI Report 23 72 June 2010 Space Policies, Issues and Trends in 2009/2010
spread the repayment period onto a longer metres in colour images, which is comparable time period throughout 2022283. to Ikonos’ and slightly inferior to Quick-Bird’s performance. A constellation of small satel- On 26 January 2010, OHB Technologies chief lites also has the advantage of shorter revis- executive Berry Smutny confirmed that al- iting times, but on the other hand it offers a though EADS Astrium did not obtain the much narrower swath path due to its fixed prime contract for building the first phase of camera. From a military point of view, a con- the Galileo NPT constellation, it would still stellation of small satellites also shows secure up to 50% of the contract’s work as a greater survivability and redundancy to inter- sub contractor of OHB. In fact, the official ference than a single spacecraft. Given that clarified that EADS subsidiary SSTL of Britain the U.S. Pentagon is already developing such would build most of the satellites’ electronics formation flying satellite systems for military payload, which would account for up to 40% use, one could argue that private satellite of the spacecraft’s total value. He also said services providers that work with the U.S. that OHB would be using for the Galileo pro- military would soon follow suit, offering ject a derivative of the satellite bus devel- commercial spacecraft comparable to the oped for the German SAR-Lupe constella- dedicated military ones. In other words, pri- tion284. vate companies seem to incorporate to their On 9 February the French space agency CNES new satellite systems technical characteristics signed a €280 million contract with Thales that imitate the standards set by government Alenia Space for the construction and launch spacecraft, in an attempt to secure con- of the Athena-Fidus satellite. Athena-Fidus tracts286. will be a three ton Geosynchronous Earth Eutelsat, the world’s third largest satellite Orbit (GEO) telecommunications satellite fleet operator, reported on 18 February that based on Thales’ Spacebus 4000 B2 platform its 2009 financial results were good beyond and using EHF and Ka-band frequencies. It is all expectation. More specifically, the com- a joint project evenly funded by the French pany’s officials announced a 9.6% revenue and Italian space agencies. Its mission will be increase for the second half of 2009, which to offer high speed (up to three GB) commu- brought total revenues in the aforementioned nications to military and civil-protection period to €508 million. This figure repre- agencies. Its technical specifications would sented a gross revenue margin of 81% allow it to transmit real time video data from (EBIT-DA), which was well above the firm’s unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV). The satellite objective of a 77% annual average for the will be operated by France and it is expected period from 2009 to 2012. Thanks to this to be launched onboard an Arianespace performance, Eutelsat foresaw to exceed for rocket by 2014 at the latest285. the first time in its history the €1 billion In February 2010, Surrey Satellite Technol- revenue mark during the 2010 fiscal year. ogy U.S. (SST-US), a subsidiary of the British Furthermore, the firm’s officials now expected Surrey Satellite Technology Ltd (SSTL), pro- its average growth to surpass the 7% posed the replacement of the older commer- benchmark on an annual basis through 2012. cial imaging spacecrafts Ikonos and Quick- Eutelsat’s backlog also exceeded expecta- Bird by a constellation of small satellites. tions, marking a 19% increase from the pre- Ikonos was launched in 1999 and it is oper- vious year and standing at €4.2 billion at the ated by GeoEye of Dulles, whereas Quick-Bird end of 2009. The firm’s positive financial flew in 2001 for DigitalGlobe of Colorado. performance was attributed to several fac- Both companies have been the principal tors, including an increase to its available commercial image providers for the U.S. De- satellite transporters from 489 to 532, a raise partment of Defence. SSTL officials have in satellite lease prices in Europe and, most been promoting the use of a constellation of importantly, Eutelsat’s bullish presence in the 5 SSTL 150 kg imaging spacecraft instead, emerging Russian, Middle East and African for a total price of less than $150 million. markets287. SSTL had already built a similar constellation On 23 February, Dutch Space of Leiden, for the German commercial imaging provider Netherlands, announced it was selected to RapidEye AG. The ground resolution offered provide solar arrays for the first four GMES by these small satellites would be approxi- Earth observation satellites, of the Sentinel 1 mately one metre in black and white and four and 2 series. The company was chosen by Thales Alenia Space under a € 13.4 million 283 “SES Taps Coface Financing For Four Astra Satellites“. Space News 4 Jan. 2010: 9. 284 “Astrium Positioned for Substantial Galileo Work”. 286 Brinton, Turner. “Firm Pitches Low-cost Replacements Space News 1 Feb. 2010: 8. for Ikonos, QuickBird“. Space News 15 Feb. 2010: 13. 285 De Selding, Peter B. “Thales Alenia Gets $384 Million 287 De Selding, Peter B. “Booming Eutelsat Raises 3-year CNES Contract for Athena-Fidus“. Space News 15 Feb. Growth Forecast, Eyes Asia“. Space News 22 Feb. 2010: 2010: 12. 6.
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contract to build panels for Sentinels 1A and turing bank loans. Efforts to refinance this 1B (equipped with a C-band Radar payload). debt continued throughout June. These in- Simultaneously it was also contracted for the cluded loan guarantees by two of its main sum of €10.3 million by Astrium Satellites for shareholders, Boeing Co. and ASA Group of Sentinels 2A and 2B (equipped with a super- Norway. In the meantime Sea Launch was spectral imaging instrument). The company continuing to lose contracts, as several of its consequently subcontracted Astrium to build clients (such as SkyTerra) transferred the solar cells and Airborne Composites of launches to its competitors, Arianespace and Hague to provide the carbon-fibre panels288. International Launch Services, amongst ru- mours that Sea Launch would not be able to On 24 February, Thales Alenia Space an- meet its scheduled launch dates291. nounced it was chosen by the French space agency CNES to build the Jason-3 ocean al- Unable to refinance its $2 billion debt (half of timetry satellite. The Jason series satellites which was to Boeing, its main stockholder are a joint effort by the U.S. National Oceanic and hardware supplier), Sea Launch had to and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection on Europe’s EUMETSAT meteorological agency 22 June. The suspension of its activities for and CNES. The Jason-3 budget was esti- an entire year in 2007 (following an on-pad mated at €252 million, including launching launch failure) together with a precipitous and three years of operation costs. Thales rise in raw material prices finally took their Alenia Space would be responsible for provid- toll on the company. As U.S. legislation ex- ing the spacecraft’s Proteus platform, its cluded Sea Launch from launching U.S. gov- principal instrument (the Poseidon 3B altime- ernment payloads, maintaining a stable reve- ter), as well as for the system’s integration, nue base in the long-term proved impossible. testing and launch preparations. NOAA would Sea Launch’s bankruptcy weighed heavily on provide secondary payloads and it would be its main shareholder, Boeing, which was fac- in charge of its launch, which was scheduled ing up to $478 million in pre-tax charges for July 2013. The satellite was planned to related to the uncollected debt292. Sea work in tandem with Jason-2, already in orbit Launch’s bankruptcy also increased fears of a since July 2008289. possible escalation in launch prices from the other two major launching services contrac- Due to problems of a Russian mobile gantry, tors, ILS and Arianespace293. the first launch of the European Soyuz ver- sion is scheduled to the end of 2010, not In the face of such fears both Intelsat and allowing a second flight in 2010. Also this SES, the two most important commercial means additional costs for ESA that will be fleet operators, announced in September that asked for an additional $50 million funding. they were willing to support Sea Launch’s exit The delay also led Arianespace to reactivate from bankruptcy by guaranteeing future its Starsem affiliate to launch four Soyuz launch contracts with it. Intelsat, which had rockets from Baikonur Cosmodrome in Ka- several launch contracts pending with Sea zakhstan beginning in September. The first Launch prior to its failure, reiterated its launch of Arianespace's new light-lift rocket is commitment to using Sea Launch services. likely to be not before 2011. After successful Boeing and Space Systems/Loral also voiced demonstration flights of the two new rockets, support for the company. At the same time, Arianespace expects to launch annually six to Intelsat and SES also asked for the U.S. gov- seven Ariane 5 rockets, three to four Soyuz ernment to address the space launch services and one or two Vega spacecrafts from the gap that Sea Launch’s bankruptcy has cre- European spaceport in French Guiana290. ated. In their opinion, this should include reconsidering the U.S. ban on satellite ex- ports to China and encouraging the return of 5.2 United States
One of the most noteworthy events in 2009 was the bankruptcy of the commercial launch services provider Sea Launch Co. LLC. Sea 291 Launch was struggling to meet its 22 June De Selding, Peter B. ”Sea Launch Expects Dept deadline of paying back $245 million in ma- Refinancing To Close in June“. Space News 1 June 2009: 6. 292 De Selding, Peter B. “$2Billion Dept Forces Sea Launch into Bankruptcy“. Space News 29 June 2009: 6. 288 “Dutch Space Will Provide Solar Arrays for Sentinel”. De Selding, Peter B. ”Failed Negotiations Over Arbitration Space News 1 Mar. 2010: 8. Payment Was Last Straw for Sea Launch”. Space News 289 “Thales Alenia Space Gets Jason-3 Satellite Contract”. 29 June 2009: 6. Space News 1 Mar. 2010: 8. 293 De Selding, Peter B. ”Sea Launch Bankruptcy Stokes 290 De Selding, Peter B. “Delays Continue To Affect Vega, Fears of Rising Launch Prices”. Space News 29 June European Soyuz Programs.” Space News 3 May 2010: 6. 2009: 1.
ESPI Report 23 74 June 2010 Space Policies, Issues and Trends in 2009/2010
the Atlas and Delta rockets to commercial product is addressed to civilian as well as activities294. military users297. Soon after Sea Launch’s bankruptcy disputes On 19 May 2009, the USAF launched TacSat- arose among its principal shareholders on 3, its first hyper-spectral reconnaissance sharing payments due to its creditors. Boe- satellite. TacSat-3’s main payload was the ing, which prior to the bankruptcy had reim- Advanced Responsive Tactically Effective bursed $448 million to Sea Launch creditors, Military Imaging Spectrometer (ARTEMIS). demanded that other shareholders participate The ARTEMIS spectrometer can distinguish in it proportionally. The Norwegian participat- the spectral signatures of different materials, ing company Aker agreed to do this, but Rus- enabling it to identify camouflaged objects or sian and Ukrainian owners declined. On 19 to detect freshly dug earth. TacSat-3 is part October Boeing filed a request for arbitration of the U.S. Defence Department’s Operation- on this issue with the Stockholm Chamber of ally Responsive Space (ORS) programme. It Commerce. In addition to this, Boeing had has an on-board computer that enables it to loaned another $523 million directly to Sea process data before transmitting it directly to Launch and demanded that the rest of the the battlefield and its tactical response time owners participate in it as well. The Sea should be less than ten minutes. The Launch bankruptcy was the main cause for a ARTEMIS payload was built by Raytheon 13% decline (to a total of $672 million) in within only 15 months and on a $15 million profits that Boeing manifested in the first budget. Off-the-self commercial technology three quarters of 2009295. was used extensively in its construction. The entire programme’s budget was $90 million, On 11 June, Lockheed Martin, Northrop including launching costs. Should TacSat-3 Grumman, and Raytheon were each awarded prove the reliability and effectiveness of the a $30 million contract from the U.S. Air Force technologies involved, USAF is planning to to start development work on the ground- launch a constellation of similar satellites, based radar segment of the future USAF able to cover multiple operational theatres space surveillance system, known as Space simultaneously298. Fence. Preliminary plans include the con- struction of three S-band radars, one of On 15 June, Northrop Grumman announced which will be located outside the U.S. The that it had delivered the second of a pair of system is expected to have higher resolution the long-delayed Space Tracking and Surveil- than the existing one. The contracts awarded lance System (STSS) satellites to the U.S. included system design review, present Missile Defence Agency. These were built in trades and analysis data, operating simula- 1999, under a cancelled system demonstra- tions and lifecycle cost estimates. The prime tion project. The programme was resumed in contractor for the project is to be selected in 2002. When launched, the satellites will en- 2012296. able the USAF to track ballistic missiles in every stage of their flight, something that On 10 June, Lockheed Martin was awarded a current space-based assets cannot do. Their $1.49 billion contract to build the third of a payload includes a multi-band infrared track- total of six USAF Space Based Infrared Sys- ing sensor that other missile tracking satel- tem satellites (SBIRS). They are set to re- lites lack. STSS is a technology demonstrator place the existing U.S. ballistic missile launch that will determine the usefulness of a con- warning constellation. The system includes stellation of such satellites for U.S. ballistic the geosynchronous SBIRS satellite, as well missile defence. The post-2002 cost of the as a highly elliptical orbiting payload. The programme was approximately $1.35 bil- launching of the constellation’s second satel- lion299. lite is scheduled for 2011. At the same time, Lockheed Martin also announced the com- On 21 June Northrop Grumman and Israel Air mercialisation of a low cost GPS enabled Industries concluded a three week technology wireless tracking device that can be moni- demonstration test of the Israeli Synthetic tored across radio frequency identification Aperture Radar (SAR) reconnaissance satel- and satellite communication networks. This lite TecSAR for the U.S. Defence Department. The test included tasking, downlinking, proc- essing and delivering TecSAR images from a mobile control station inside a van, within 294 De Selding, Peter B. “Sea Launch Promised Future Contracts”. Space News 14 Sept. 2009: 12. Also see 297 Ibid. below 298 Matthews, William. “TacSat-3 Earth Observing Satellite 295 De Selding Peter B. “Boeing Seeks To Reduce Losses Puts Hyperspectral Imagery Analysis in Space“. Space From Sea Launch Bankruptcy”. Space News 2 Nov. 2009: News 22 June 2009: 16. 4. 299 Brinton, Turner. “Missile Tracking Demonstration 296 “U.S. Air Force Sows Seeds For Next-Gen Space Satellites Readied for Launch“. Space News 22 June Fence”. Space News 15 June 2009: 3. 2009: 12.
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less than 15 minutes of their request. The to orbit onboard an Ariane 5 ECA rocket. The demonstration was conducted in Key West 6,910 Kg satellite will provide mobile voice Florida under U.S. Southern Command’s Pro- and data communications services in North ject Thunderstorm, an initiative seeking to America, using the 2 GHz and S bands303. utilise next-generation imaging capabilities to The satellite’s most striking feature is its un- counter asymmetric threats. furlable 18-metre-diameter s-band antenna. Concerns about whether the antenna would Intelsat and SES, the world’s largest com- deploy properly had delayed its launch since mercial satellite fleet operators, announced early June304. The satellite will be operated on 23 July that they would jointly try to “per- by TerreStar Networks Inc. of Reston, VA305. suade” Washington to allow them to launch commercial satellites from China and India. On 24 September, Space Exploration Tech- The two companies were expected to be nologies (Space X) Corp. announced it would joined by Space Systems/Loral, the largest launch a prototype of its reusable Dragon U.S. builder of commercial communications cargo capsule onboard the maiden flight of spacecrafts. The two companies noted that the Falcon 9 rocket. Dragon is a reusable ITAR procedures and the Sea Launch bank- capsule under development since 2006 for ruptcy had practically reduced launching ser- conducting cargo flights to the International vices providers to only two (Arianespace and Space Station (ISS). In December 2008 ILS). They therefore insisted on lifting the Space X won a $1.6 billion contract from ban on Indian launches of U.S. satellites, NASA’s Commercial Orbital Transportation which the U.S. department has maintained in Services to conduct 12 such flights to ISS by spite of the latest U.S.-India bilateral coop- 2016. Dragon’s launch has been delayed eration agreement on defence and technology since 2007 because of problems with the trade. However, Congressional sources noted development of the Falcon launcher306. that this lobbying initiative could result in In an important development, Raytheon an- effects on the Hill exactly opposite than ex- nounced on 26 October that it had been pected300. awarded a $3 million contract to study the In September, the two companies were integration of the new U.S. Missile Defence joined by satellite operators Telesat and Agency sensors to USAF’s Space Surveillance Echostar and intensified their lobbying by Network. USAF is already using MDA’s fixed hiring former U.S. Senate Armed Service radar stations for space surveillance pur- Committee Chairman John Warner to address poses, but it would like to add its new mobile to executive branch officials, although ethics radars (like AN/TPY-2 X-band radar) to the rules forbid ex-Congress members from lob- mix. According to Raytheon it was the com- bying. Warner would try to convince top offi- pany itself that came unsolicited to the Air cials that the absence of a U.S. launch pro- Force with a proposal to develop an open vider is harmful to its national security inter- command and control architecture able to ests, and this should be addressed by lifting merge all available sensors into one dual- the ban on Chinese launchers and facilitating purpose system. Full-scale development of commercial flights on board the Atlas and the programme could begin in 2012. At the Delta rockets301. same time, Raytheon has been in contact with MDA and the intelligence community in On 11 August, Raytheon Space and Airborne order to allow the dedicated Space Surveil- Systems unveiled its new infrared light-wave lance sensors to be used for early missile detector that is four times larger in dimension launch warning and intelligence gathering307. than the current one. Its 4k×4k focal plane array comprises 16 million pixels in 4,096 In a separate development, representatives columns and rows, laid on a 64 square cen- of the Israeli Space Agency suggested during timetre surface. The new detector promises a Space Security workshop on 3 November in greater sensitivity and higher frame rates, Tel-Aviv, that Israel’s planned Arrow-3 high- while at the same time simplifying systems altitude ballistic missile defence system could design and lowering construction costs302. be easily adapted to an Anti-Satellite (ASAT)
On 1 July, Terrestar-1, the world’s largest 303 commercial spacecraft ever built, was lifted “Ariane 5 Launcher Puts Terrestar-1 into Orbit “. Space news 6 July 2009: 3 304 De Selding, Peter B. “TerreStar-1 Launch Slips as Insurers Request More Info”. Space News, 15 June 2009: 300 De Selding, Peter B. “SES, Intelsat Asking Lawmakers 4. to Rethink Launch Ban on China, India“. Space News 3 305 “Ariane 5 Launcher Puts Terrestar-1 into Orbit “. Space Aug. 2009: 1. news 6 July 2009: 3. 301 De Selding, Peter B. “Satellite Firms Tap Warner in Bid 306 Klamper, Amy. “SpaceX: Dragon Prototype Will Fly on for Wider Access to Launchers“. Space News 21 Sept. First Falcon 9“. Space news 28 Sept. 2009: 7. 2009: 5. 307 Brinton, Turner. “U.S. Air Force Studying Wider Use of 302 “Raytheon Unveils Bigger, Better Infrared Detector“. MDA Radars for Space Tracking”. Space News 2 Nov. Space News 24 Aug. 2009: 11. 2009: 16.
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role as well. According to workshop partici- net router launched aboard a commercial pants, Arrow-3’s agile last stage exoatmos- communications satellite. The router was pheric hit-to-kill vehicle could be modified to built for the U.S. Defence Department’s intercept LEO satellites and the system’s Internet Routing in Space (IRIS) technology Green Pine radar could be used for tracking demonstrator, launched aboard the Intelsat them. During the workshop, Iran’s future 14 satellite. IRIS was the first dedicated U.S. deployment of earth observation satellites military payload to reach orbit on a commer- was identified as a possible motive for Israel cial satellite. In 2008, SES Americom had to acquire an ASAT capability308. also signed a contract with USAF to host an experimental missile warning sensor aboard a In the meantime, the U.S. Operationally Re- communications satellite scheduled for launch sponsive Space (ORS) Office disclosed in in 2011. Although the experiment is funded November that it was making a capability by the Pentagon, Cisco has property rights assessment of the German-built LAPAN- over the router that it hopes to commercialise TUBSats. The ORS office could order up to 8 with satellite communications service provid- such satellites to complement U.S. tactical ers. Intelsat also had expressed its interest in imaging capabilities, at an estimated cost of adding internet routers to its future space- $60 million. The 50Kg low-cost spacecrafts crafts. The demonstration acquired renewed are built by the Technical University of Berlin interest since the cancellation of USAF Trans- (TUB) and they are equipped with a near formational Communications Satellite (T- real-time remote-controlled digital video Sat), which was also set to feature space- camera, with an 8 to 10 metres ground reso- based routers311. lution. TUB had already built such satellites for Indonesia and Morocco, among others. On 7 December Virgin Galactic unveiled its The system’s main operational advantages passenger carrying SpaceShipTwo suborbital were its good price-capability ratio and its space-plane, during a gala presentation at remote-controlled camera that allows for the Mojave Air and Space Port in California. shorter re-tasking times309. The vehicle is designed to carry 6 passengers and a 2 member crew. The company’s offi- On 23 November, mobile satellite operator cials expected commercial operation to begin Inmarsat announced the acquisition of the in 2011 from the Space Port America field, U.S. communications services provider Sego- currently under construction in N. Mexico. via Inc. for $110 million. In 2008 Segovia Until then the space-plane was scheduled to had reported a net profit of $18 million on contact extensive flight testing312. $67 million total revenues. With this pur- chase, Inmarsat was expected to boost its In January 2010 the Denver-based United position in the U.S. government contract Launch Alliance (ULA), a Lockheed Martin- market. The company was already a cus- Boeing joint venture operating the Atlas 5 tomer of Inmarsat’s L-Band services. It also and Delta 4 rockets, announced it had posted operates a network of Very Small Aperture a strong campaign in 2009. The year ended Satellite (VSAT) satellite Earth stations for with a total of 8 successful launches, whereas the U.S. Defence Department, which is rele- 10 more were scheduled for 2010 for the two vant to Inmarsat’s involvement in DARPA’s vehicles combined. ULA is the principal space “Persistent Broadband Ground Connectivity launch services provider for the U.S. Depart- for Spacecraft in Low Earth Orbit Effort” pro- ment of Defence and civil agencies and it was gramme. According to Segovia’s Chief Execu- created in 2006. Both the rockets it uses tive M. Wheeler, 80% of the company’s busi- were developed under the USAF’s Evolved ness was with the Pentagon. Prior to its ac- Expendable Launch Vehicle (EELV) pro- quisition, Segovia had also begun to provide gramme. In spite of the high launching rate services from Inmarsat’s competitor, Iridium maintained in 2009, ULA has a backlog full of Communications. With this acquisition, In- government launches that would not leave marsat could expand its BGAN broadband room for commercial payloads before 2012 at service to new distributors310. the earliest. This queuing up of payloads was caused by launch stagnation in 2008, when In a related event, on 23 November Cisco both rockets were grounded for technical Systems Inc. saw its first space-based inter- reasons. This situation had prompted ULA to take measures such as reducing launch inter- 308 Opall-Rome, Barbara. “Israeli Experts: Arrow-3 Could vals by 20–25%, developing a dual payload Be Adapted for Anti-Satellite Role”. Space News 9 Nov. adapter for its rockets and delaying the as- 2009: 16. 309 Iannotta, Ben. “Pentagon Eyes Satellites Equipped with Joystick-controlled Video Cameras”. Space News 23 Nov. 311 Brinton, Turner. “Cisco Views IRIS Experiment as 2009: 12. market Primer for Space Routers”. Space news 30 Nov. 310 De Selding, Peter B. “Inmarsat Acquires Segovia to 2009: 12. Boost Government Business”. Space News 30 Nov. 2009: 312 “SpaceShipTwo Rolls Out at Mojave Air and Space 10. Port“. Space News 14 Dec. 2009: 8.
ESPI Report 23 77 June 2010
signment of payloads to 6 months prior to customers and it was negotiating with an- each launch313. other two, the identity of which it did not disclose315. In the mean time, a series of legislative and administration delays within the U.S. De- Should this development materialised, it partment of Defence has caused a consider- would bring about a significant change in the able revenue decrease in 2009 for U.S. com- company’s revenue sources. Overtime Digi- mercial satellite image providers. On the one talGlobe expected these customers to pay on hand, Pentagon’s existing contracting vehicle average $50 million for its services. Given called NextView was only renewed in Decem- that the firm’s total revenues in 2009 ber 2009, three months later than expected. amounted to $281.9 million, it becomes obvi- As a result, the U.S. National Geospatial ous that in the future DigitalGlobe would rely Agency (NGA) that is the contracting author- solely on these clients for its growth. Even at ity on behalf of the U.S. government could a $35 million annual fee, the seven foreign not procure any images from commercial government clients would provide the com- companies in the aforementioned period. pany with $245 million in revenues per year, Furthermore, this situation was not expected which would be over 60% more than the to change in the first half of 2010, as a new $150 million that it is currently receiving from contracting vehicle called EnhancedView was its U.S. government. In this sense, one could not yet put into place, in spite of the fact that argue that the DAP programme signifies a the existing one was set to expire in June change in the U.S. commercial satellite image 2010. Although NGA assured commercial providers business model, obliging them to providers that it would renew it on a monthly rely more on their foreign customers than on basis until the new one came into force, it their domestic ones. It is also worth noticing was clear that they could not expect any in- that all DAP clients would have access to crease in revenues from U.S. government DigitalGlobe’s latest and more accurate Worl- contracts in 2010314. View-2 satellite, while the U.S. government usually purchases products from the older In the face of these events DigitalGlobe, one Quickbird and WorldView-1 spacecraft316. of the country’s major commercial satellite image providers, announced it would have to count on foreign customers to support its growth in 2010. DigitalGlobe projected a 22 5.3 Russia % total revenue increase in 2010, even as- suming that U.S. government contracts On 28 May 2009, the Russian space agency would remain in 2009 levels. The additional Roskosmos announced a $360 million exten- income necessary to boost the company’s sion to its long-running space transportation growth rate was expected to come from sales contract with NASA. Under this contract to commercial and foreign government cus- modification, Roskosmos will launch an addi- tomers. Commercial sales income in particu- tional six U.S. astronauts onboard four Soyuz lar was thought to increase by 15% in 2010, capsule missions, scheduled for 2012. The in spite of its 3.6% decline in 2009 (amount- same capsules will return their crews to Earth ing to approximately $50.9 million). Given by spring 2013317. that U.S. government contracts account for almost 75% of the firm’s revenues, the bulk During a meeting with Russian Prime Minister of its growth would have to come from for- Vladimir Putin in July, the Head of Russia’s eign government customers. To increase that Roskosmos space agency Anatoly Perminov source of income, DigitalGlobe had set up a envisaged that Russia’s Glonass satellite mechanism known as the Direct Access Pro- navigation system will count a complete 24 gramme (DAP). Under this scheme, foreign satellite constellation by the end of 2009. countries approved by the U.S. government Perminov also promised that delays in con- could downstream images from DigitalGlobe’s structing the Soyuz launch pad in Europe’s satellites directly to ground stations in their Guiana Space Centre would be completed in territory for an annual fee of roughly $35 time for its first launch in February 2010. million. DigitalGlobe planned that 25% of its Soyuz rockets launched from Guiana are scheduled to lift two spacecraft for Europe’s spacecrafts’ operational time would be used 318 by foreign governments under this short of Galileo satellite navigation system in 2010 . lent-lease agreement. The company an- nounced that it had already secured five such 315 Ibid. 316 Ibid. 313 Brinton, Turner. “2010 Shaping Up as Busiest Year Yet 317 “NASA, Roskosmos Sign $306 Million Soyuz Deal”. for EELV“. Space News 11 Jan. 2010: 15. Space News 1 June 2009: 3. 314 De Selding, Peter B. “With U.S. Contracts Delayed, 318 De Selding, Peter B. ”Perminov Briefs Putin on DigitalGlobe Looks Elsewhere for 2010 Growth“. Space Glonass, Other Russian Space Programs”. Space News News 1 Mar. 2010: 10. 20 July 2009: 6.
ESPI Report 23 78 June 2010 Space Policies, Issues and Trends in 2009/2010
On the other side, in September Roskosmos planned 24 satellite constellation would be was obliged to postpone its Phobos-Grunt fully operational322. mission to the largest of Mars’s two moons. The mission, which is Russia’s first inter- planetary mission since its failed Mars orbiter and lander mission in 1996, was originally 5.4 Japan scheduled for October. However it was post- poned until the next launch window in 2011, On 11 July, the Japan Aerospace Exploration due to delays in the final testing of the Agency (JAXA) and Mitsubishi Heavy Indus- tries Ltd announced the completion of ground spacecraft. The Phobos-Grunt mission con- 323 sists of an unmanned lander and a sample- tests for the H-2B rocket . This is a more return craft319. powerful version of the H-2A rocket, designed to lift the H-2 Transfer Vehicle 1 (HTV-1) In September, the French export-credit cargo spacecraft to the International Space agency Coface announced it would guarantee Station (ISS). HTV-1 is a solar-powered cyl- the necessary loans for the construction of inder-shaped spacecraft approximately 10 two Yamal-400 communication satellites from metres long and 4.4 metres wide324. It can Thales Alenia Space on behalf of the Russian carry 6 tons of pressurised and/or unpressur- operator Gazprom Space Systems. Both ised cargo. Its development started in 1997 spacecrafts would be launched aboard an and cost about $680 million325. Ariane 5 rocket. However, the programme was criticised by Russian authorities that are HTV-1 was successfully launched on Septem- currently reviewing the country’s satellite ber 10 from the Tanegashima Space Centre communication sector, because of its lack of and arrived at the ISS on 17 September. Russian technology content320. Apart from carrying various provisions for the ISS crew, HTV-1’s payload included two On 17 October, Roskosmos published a highly sophisticated earth observation in- summary of its planned Yasny spaceport in struments on behalf of the U.S. Navy. These the Russian Far East. The document stated were the Hyperspectral Imager for the that development of the site would require Coastal Ocean (HICO) and the Remote At- building an entire 30,000 people city almost mospheric and Ionospheric Detection System from scratch. The Russian federal govern- (RAIDS). Both instruments are experimental. ment has estimated that total construction They were developed by the U.S. Naval Re- costs might reach as high as $13.9 billion. At search Lab and were mounted on the exter- the same time, the site still faced long launch nal payload platform of the ISS’s Japanese delays because of rocket-debris cleanup dis- Experiment Module Kibo. Both instruments putes with Uzbekistan. In October, the launch are intended for military and civilian purposes of two Swedish Prisma satellites and the alike. HICO will provide high resolution real- French Picard were delayed for the same time imaging of coastal areas and RAIDS will reason. Apparently, the new launching site monitor the earth’s Ionosphere and Atmos- could face the same availability issues as the phere in order to provide space weather data. Baikonur Cosmodrome has faced because of These are the first high-performance obser- similar disputes with Kazakhstan321. vation instruments mounted on the ISS326. On 2 November, HTV successfully completed On 2 March 2010 Russia successfully its 59-day mission and was destroyed as launched three Glonass-M navigation and planned by re-entering the atmosphere above positioning satellites. All three were lifted to the Pacific Ocean327. orbit onboard a Proton M rocket launched from the Baikonur Cosmodrome. The launch In September, the U.S. headquartered com- was postponed from the previous October pany BB Sat acquired a licence to provide due to the need to inspect a critical compo- satellite broadband services in Japan. The nent suspected of malfunction. Russia is cur- company has concluded agreements to use rently running a programme to replenish and Ka-band capacity onboard a Japanese satel- modernise its Glonass satellite constellation. Another three space craft were launched in late 2009 and three more were expected to 322 “Russian Proton Lofts Trio of Glonass Navigation follow in August 2010. After that, the initially Satellites”. Space News 8 Mar. 2010: 8. 323 “Japan Conducts Ground Test of H-2B Rocket”. Space News 20 July 2009: 8. 319 ”Russia Delays Phobos-Grunt Mars Mission Until 2011”. 324 Malik, Tariq. “Japan’s First Space Cargo Ship ready to Space News 28 Sept. 2009: 9. Fly“. Space News 7 Sept. 2009: 14. 320 De Selding, Peter B. “National Export-Credit Agencies 325 Malik, Tariq. “Japan’s HTV-1 Bound for Station“. Space Stepping up Satellite Financing”. Space News 14 Sept. News 14 Sept. 2009: 22. 2009: 10. 326 Klamper, Amy. “Japan’s HTV Delivered U.S. Navy 321 De Selding, Peter B. “Dnepr Launch Stalled by Rocket- Experiments to Station“. Space News 28 Sept. 2009: 14. Debris Cleanup Negotiations”. Space News 26 Oct. 2009: 327 “Japanese Cargo Tug Burns Up Over Pacific Ocean“. 11. Space News 9 Nov. 2009: 8.
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lite already in orbit and to cooperate with The launch services provider China Great Japan’s Internet Service Providers (ISP) in Wall Industry Corp. declined to comment on handling sales and customer services. the causes of the failure, but later in Sep- tember it appointed an independent enquiry On 17 November the Government Admini- board to investigate them. Palapa-D was stration Reform Committee, an advisory eventually salvaged, when satellite construc- committee to the Japanese government set tor Thales Alenia was able to propel it into a up to eliminate wasteful budget spending, geosynchronous orbit using its own propul- proposed the cancellation of the future GX sion module331. rocket. GX has been under development since 2003 and was originally scheduled to fly On 19 November the enquiry board, compris- in 2006. However, development of the ing of officials from the China Academy of rocket’s second-stage liquid gas engine was Launch Vehicle Technology (CALT) and the not expected to be completed before 2011 Academy of Aerospace Propulsion Technol- and at a cost that was double the originally ogy, published its findings. It had reached estimated budget (¥35 billion instead of an the conclusion that the upper stage’s engine estimated ¥15 billion)328. The final decision had delivered 38% less thrust than expected on the GX’s fate was taken 16 December for 43% of its total working time. The cause 2009, when the Japanese government opted of this underperformance was determined to to cancel the programme, but continue de- be a burn-through of its gas generator, velopment work on its intended eliquified caused by foreign matter or icing in the en- natural gas-powered engine. As it was an- gine’s liquid hydrogen injectors. To prevent nounced, the principal reasons behind the any future similar accidents, the rocket’s programme’s cancellation were its budget manufacturer China Great Wall Industry overrides and an increase in its expected Corp. of Beijing decided to install a filter to launching cost that was bound to compromise the liquid hydrogen gas feed system. The any future commercial prospects329. company also stated it would flight test the new system before the end of 2009332. On 28 November, Japan successfully launched the first of its new generation earth The Chinese launch-service provider China observation satellites aboard an H-2A rocket. Great Wall Industry Corp. (CGWIC) is expect- The space craft, called the Information Gath- ing to be responsible for more than ten ering Satellite (IGS) Optical-3, would provide launches per year during the next two years. optical imagery of 60 cm ground resolution, a An aim of the company is to attract Western considerable improvement on Japan’s current Business. Helpful could also be the low insur- 1 metre capability. The $562 million satellite ance rates of the well-proven Long March was the first of a total of four reconnaissance Series that are not far from Ariane 5 or Pro- satellites, two optical and two radar, sched- ton rockets. CGWIC is pretending that cus- uled for launch through 2012. Further space- tomer satellite teams have the full control crafts with even higher resolution capability over the facility – including access- are planned for 2014330. permissions. Due to the U.S. International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR), it remains nearly impossible to bring U.S. satellite com- 5.5 China ponents to Chinese launch bases333.
On 31 August the Chinese Long March 3B rocket failed to place Indonesian commercial 5.6 India communications satellite Palapa-D into Geo- synchronous transfer orbit, when the engine The Indian space programme suffered an of its third stage malfunctioned. This was the important setback on 29 August, when ISRO launcher’s second failure in 12 flights, the announced it had lost contact with its lunar last one being during its maiden flight in orbiting probe Chandrayaan-1, launched in 1996. Long March 3B is China’s principal October 2008. The spacecraft, carrying 11 communications satellite launcher. The inci- scientific instruments (including six supplied dent also grounded Long March 3A and 3C rockets, as they all share the same engine. 331 De Selding, Peter B. “Palapa-D to be Salvaged After Being Launched into Wrong Orbit“. Space News 7 Sept. 328 “Japan’s GX Rocket Targeted for Cancellation in 2010”. 2009: 10. Space News 23 Nov. 2009: 8. “Long March Mishap Report Due by Mid-Nov.” Space 329 “Japan Scraps GX Rocket Development Project”. I News 14 Sept. 2009: 16. StockAnalyst 16 Dec. 2009. 30 May 2010. 332 De Selding, Peter B. “Burn-through Blamed in China
ESPI Report 23 80 June 2010 Space Policies, Issues and Trends in 2009/2010
by U.S. and European partners), had already any of its predecessors. It is expected to field lost both of its star tracking instruments ear- a multi-beam Ku- and Ka-band capacity and lier in the year. ISRO announced that the $85 to be ready for launch aboard India’s new million programme was officially terminated, GSLV-3 rocket by 2011. Project cost is esti- more than 14 months in front of its scheduled mated at Rp5 billion ($104 million)338. completion. Chandrayaan-1’s loss was offi- On 12 August, ISRO released its own version cially attributed to multiple instrument fail- of Google Earth for India. The software, ures due to excessive spacecraft tempera- named Bhuvan, has a spatial resolution of at tures. ISRO admitted having underestimated least 6 metres per pixel and it complies with the temperature levels the probe would ex- Indian laws prohibiting the imaging of de- perience during its 100km mapping orbits334. fence installations and objects smaller than In the aftermath of this failure, ISRO came one square metre339. under heavy criticism for its lack of transpar- On 23 September, India launched its second ency in dealing with the satellite’s problems. ocean monitoring satellite, Oceansat-2. The In fact, it was disclosed that overheating spacecraft was put on a 720 km sun- problems had started just two weeks after its synchronous polar orbit aboard by ISRO’s launch, forcing its operators to regularly de- Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle (PSLV). Its activate several of its instruments. Finally, in mission is expected to last 5 years and a a desperate attempt to reduce inside space- third satellite is planned for launch in 2012. craft temperature, Chandrayaan-1 was lifted At the same time, EUMETSAT has expressed to a higher 200 km orbit335. However, ISRO interest in acquiring Oceansat-2 data, as the preferred not to acknowledge the problem in agency is expanding its mandate to include public. As late as 17 July, an ISRO spokes- ocean observation for the Global Monitoring man was insisting that the spacecraft contin- for Environment and Security programme ued to perform its mission as planned, using (GMES). Negotiations with ISRO are currently its onboard gyroscopes to determine pointing under way for EUMETSAT to be allowed to position. According to the same announce- download the satellite’s data from one of its ment, all its mission objectives were suppos- stations in Europe340. edly accomplished in this way336. As critics pointed out, ISRO even presented the change On 24 November, U.S. President B. Obama of orbit as a way to study lunar surface at a and Indian Prime Minister M. Singh agreed wider swath, instead of an emergency ma- during the latter’s official visit to Washington noeuvre in order to reduce temperature lev- to expand their two countries’ cooperation on els. science and technology research, nuclear energy and space. The announcement was On 20 July, U.S. Secretary of State Mrs Clin- preceded on 18 November by an agreement ton and her Indian counterpart Minister S.M. between the two countries’ respective space Krishna signed a Technology Safeguards agencies to share data from India’s Agreement that allows India to launch civil Oceansat-2 meteorological and oceano- and non-commercial satellites containing U.S. graphic satellite. It also came less than a made components. The agreement however week after President Obama’s return from a does not yet allow India to provide commer- visit to Beijing, where similar pledges were cial launch services to operators using satel- made between U.S. and Chinese officials341. lites with such components. Nevertheless, Antrix representatives announced that nego- On 2 December the Indian Space Research tiations for a similar commercial space Organisation (ISRO) announced it had earned agreement were well under way, and they $21.5 million since 2007 from commercial expressed their optimism that they would launches of foreign satellites. This included a soon reach their objective337. total of 12 spacecrafts from 7 countries, al- though the bulk of this revenue came from On 23 July, the Indian Cabinet approved launching Israeli and Italian satellites342. ISRO’s request to develop a new advanced communications satellite, called GSAT-11. On 3 March the Indian space agency ISRO This spacecraft, with an expected mass of 4.5 successfully tested a new type of sounding tons, will be heavier and more advanced than
338 ”Indian Cabinet Approves Large Telecom Satellite”. 334 ”Indian Lunar Orbiter Fails Abruptly”. Space News 7 Space news 27 July 2009: 3. Sept. 2009: 8. 339 ”ISRO Launches Indian Version of Google Earth”. Jayaraman, K.S. “Chandrayaan-1’s Early Demise Space news 24 Aug. 2009: 9. Attributed to Overheating”. Space News 14 Sept. 2009: 21. 340 Jayaraman, K.S. ”India Successfully Lofts Ocean- 335 Ibid. Monitoring Satellite”. Space News 28 Sept. 2009: 13. 336 Jayaraman, K.S. “ISRO Plays Down Glitch Aboard 341 “U.S., India Agree to Expand Civil Space Cooperation”. Chandrayaan-1”. Space News 20 July 2009: 20. Space News 30 Nov. 2009: 3. 337 ”Accord Allows India To Launch U.S. Hardware”. Space 342 “Foreign Satellite Launches Brought in $21.5M for News 27 July 2009: 9. ISRO”. Space News 7 Dec. 2009: 8.
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rocket, intended for use as a scramjet engine MDA has had a long experience in building technology demonstrator. The rocket, known robotic arms for the U.S. Space Shuttle and as the Advanced Technology Vehicle (ATV), the International Space Station. According to was launched from the Satish Dhawan space the company’s officials, its total investment centre. Weighting nearly 3 tons, ATV is the on such technologies has exceeded the heaviest sounding rocket used by ISRO to amount of $3 billion, a quarter of which could date. According to the official announcement, have applications in building in-orbit service the rocket propelled its experimental ramjet satellites. Contrary to the German effort, engine payload to a Mach 6 speed, which was MDA’s venture would be an exclusively pri- sufficient to achieve its ignition. Indian offi- vate one and the firm had disclosed it was cials announced they would attempt to ignite already into negotiations with potential com- the engine at the next test flight343. mercial customers for the system. According to MDA’s business plan, an in-orbit servicing satellite would have an operational life span of five years and it would be able to refuel 5.7 Canada approximately 10 satellites during this time. It should be noted that MDA targets exclu- On 7 January 2010 Canadian rural-broadband sively commercial satellite communications provider Barrett Xplore Inc. agreed to invest companies with assets in geosynchronous at least $250 million in order to reserve 15% orbit as its potential customers. MDA officials of ViaSat-1 Ka-band broadband communica- also clarified that they expected to be paid by tions satellite’s capacity or 100% of its capac- kg of fuel successfully delivered to the recipi- ity reserved for Canada. This capacity, ent satellite. In total, they anticipated that equivalent to 15 gigabits per second, was every servicing satellite would provide an purchased from Loral Space and Communica- aggregate of 50 years of additional opera- tions of New York, the spacecraft’s manufac- tional life time to its customers, considering turer for satellite services provider ViaSat that every GEO communications satellite uses Inc. of California. Barrett is Canada’s biggest approximately 30 kg of fuel per year. If one rural broadband provider and its decision to takes this statement on face value, MDA’s directly purchase satellite capacity would servicing spacecraft would have to be a suggest that it would enter into direct compe- rather large satellite, capable of delivering up tition to Telesat, the country’s principal com- to 1.5 tons of fuel in total346. mercial satellite operator. In an earlier devel- opment, Barrett had also signed on 29 Octo- On the other hand, insurance companies that ber 2009 a $100 million contract to purchase underwrite commercial space activities have an additional 10 gigabits capacity from expressed some reticence regarding the fi- Hughes Network Systems on the Jupiter sat- nancial feasibility of creating such a market. ellite, also made by Loral and scheduled for The most controversial issue is what would launch in 2012. Finally, Barrett announced it happen in case the target satellite would be had applied for a 50% reimbursement of their damaged during its servicing. According to investment under a Canadian public broad- insurance industry officials, one possible ap- band stimulus programme344. proach would be for the owner of the satellite under service to assume liability, just as it is On 3 March the Canadian space robotics the case with maritime tugboat operations at manufacturer MacDonald, Dettwiler and As- sea. Another problem that would have to be sociates Corp. (MDA) announced it had also resolved would be the technical feasibility of begun developing a technology and business the project: fuel valves onboard the customer model to build such spacecrafts. It plans to satellites would need to be opened and closed start an in-orbit satellite servicing business again fro refuelling, something that they were and a major investment in the end of 2010 – not designed to do. Furthermore, a commer- the most promising new business feature cial communications satellite as a whole is according to MDA Corp. A first satellite- usually designed to stay for approximately 15 serving mission could be done in early 2013 years in orbit, and all its components are and could be robots refuelling, repairing or 345 certified to last only that long. Therefore, moving satellites in-orbit . even if it was refuelled, other parts of the spacecraft could eventually malfunction and render its replenishment futile. In conclusion,
343 one could say that in-orbit refuelling is a “ISRO Takes Step Toward Air-breathing Rocket Test”. promising technology and business concept, Space News 8 Mar. 2010: 8. 344 De Selding, Peter B. “Barrett Announces $250 Million which nevertheless would require several Investment in Ka-band Satellites“. Space News 11 Jan. years of development and a good number of 2010: 7. 345 De Selding, Peter B. “Canada's MDA Sees Business Case for In-orbit Satellite Servicing.” Space News 10 May 346 De Selding, Peter B.”MDA Designing In-orbit Servicing 2010: 7. Spacecraft”. Space News 8 Mar. 2010: 14.
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demonstrating flights before the commercial space industry is convinced of its reliability. 5.9.1 State of the European Space Industry In the mean time, one could foresee that government agencies would have to step in Unfortunately, data on the financial results of and finance the concept’s development in its Europe’s space industry for 2009 is only to be initial stages347. expected in the summer of 2010, which does not allow for final data to be included in this report. Nevertheless, by using long-term overviews this paragraph tries to give a basic 5.8 Brazil insight into European space industry devel- opments and character.The trends reviewed On 23 September PyroAlliance, the French in this paragraph are mainly based on a re- pyrotechnical systems company, announced port of the European Space Industry issued the successful conclusion of Brazil’s VLS by ASD-Eurospace349. rocket motor-ignition ground tests. PyroAlli- ance, a subsidiary of SNPE Group, is under a In terms of size of the European space manu- 16-month contract to Brazil’s Aerospace facturing sector, a trend of increasing con- Technology Centre (CTA) to provide pyro- solidated turnover can be observed through- technical systems expertise on the develop- out the last few years (Figure 5.1). Bearing in ment of solid-fuel rocket engine for VLS, as mind that the worldwide satellite manufactur- well as on the pyrotechnical separation of the ing industry experienced a big rise of reve- first stage. PyroAlliance is conducting similar nues in 2009 and the number of launches work for Ariane 5 and Vega, but it is the first increased again, it can be estimated that the time the company is engaged in providing trend showed in Figure 5.1 proceeded also in “ITAR-free” equipment and technology348. 2009. During the last years, the revenues of the European space industry were dominated by 5.9 Transatlantic Industrial institutional customers including civil and military programmes (Figure 5.2). While we Comparison can expect this to have proceeded in 2009, it is interesting to note that the share of institu- Europe and the United States are the two tional customers has been decreasing over major space actors investing the most in several years. As we saw in chapter 4.7, the space activities (Cf. Chapter 2). They also security related institutional spending in have the most diverse and competitive indus- Europe decreased enormously, so that we trial bases. An overview of their respective probably see the trend of a growing commer- dynamism and capabilities is therefore neces- cial share and a decreasing institutional share sary to assess the health and competitive- also continuing in 2009. ness of their industrial base and will be pro- vided in the next two paragraphs, beginning with Europe.
347 Ibid. 348 “Brazil’s VLS Rocket Clears Series of Ground Tests“. 349 ASD-Eurospace. “Facts & figures – The European Space News 28 Sept. 2009: 3. Space Industry in 2008.” 13th edition, rev. 1. July 2009.
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5.885 6
5.241
4.848 4.867 5 4.432 4.157
4
3 Billion euros
2
1
0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Figure 5.1: Estimated consolidated turnover of the European space sector (Source: ASD-Eurospace350).
100%
Operational launchers and parts 90%
80%
Commercial satellites and parts 70%
60% Institutional military programmes (Europe) 50%
40%
30% Institutional civil programmes (Europe) 20%
10%
Other/unknown 0% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Figure 5.2: Estimated share of the European space industry consolidated turnover per institutional customer (Source: ASD-Eurospace351)
350 ASD-Eurospace. “Facts & figures – The European Space Industry in 2008.” 13th edition, rev. 1. July 2009: 14. 351 Ibid.
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Another indicator to assess trends is the FAA 5.9.2 State of the United States’ Space Industry report352 that estimates the commercial launch revenues to account for $1.02 billion The estimated figures given in this subchap- in 2009 which shows a rise by about 45% ter come from the 2009 Review of the Aero- space Industries Association (AIA) Research compared to 2008. This strengthens the es- 354 timation to see also in 2009 a smaller share Center . According to this document, space of institutional consumers of the European sales in 2009 rose to the record amount of space industry turnover. $214.1 billion, compared to $205.7 billion in 2008. U.S. aerospace industry profits in- Furthermore, looking at the sectors of the creased 6.5% to $15.6 billion after taxes in European space industry another trend can 2009. be observed. Since 2005, the sector of satel- lite applications covering development and U.S. aerospace industries are still suffering manufacturing of space systems for naviga- from the global financial crisis, which also tion, Earth Observation and telecommunica- affected some parts of the aerospace branch. tions has been growing, while other sectors This is reflected for example by the signifi- nearly have remained stable (Figure 5.3). cant decreases in the import and export rates. However, the bigger aerospace com- As we see after a time of rising employment panies went through the last year with a cer- figures in the aerospace sector the first time tain level of growth. The further prospects for a decreasing employment in the U.S. (cf. the U.S. aerospace industries are good, open- chapter 5.9.2) and also decreasing general ing the perspective of continuing the present employment in Europe (cf. chapter 1), we upturn. The unusual circumstance that com- likely have to state also for the first time less mercial and military market segments are employers in the European space industry booming at the same time supports this out- after 2005 (Figure 5.4). look355.
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000 Million euros
1500
1000
500
0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Satellite applications Launcher developments and production Scientific programmes Support and test Other/unknown
Figure 5.3: Estimated share of the European space industry consolidated turnover per sector (Source: ASD-Eurospace353)
352 Federal Aviation Administration. “Commercial Space Transportation: 2009 Year in Review.” Jan. 2010. Washington DC: FAA. 30 April 2010. 354 Aerospace Industries Association. 2009 Year End
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33,000
32,235
32,000 31,476
31,000 30,301
30,000 29,506
28,872
Employment 29,000 28,584
28,000
27,000
26,000 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Figure 5.4: European space industry employment (Source: ASD-Eurospace356)
Aerospace’s growth of sales was largely the UK and Japan. Actually, the relative de- driven by U.S. defence spending due to the preciation of the U.S. dollar should have con- operations in Afghanistan and Iraq. Given the tributed to export success by making prod- scaling back of the Iraq involvement, funds ucts cheaper for foreign customers. However, are likely to decrease. However, military air- the global financial and economic crisis and craft sales increased from $57.0 billion in oil price volatility led to delayed orders. For 2008 to $61.7 billion in 2009 and missile the coming years, the good economic rela- sales from $13.3 billion to $14.8 billion. Ac- tions between the U.S. and India could result cording to the same sources, an 8% im- in a new improvement of U.S. aerospace provement in military aircraft sales and an exports. In total, exports amounted to $78.9 11% increase in missile system sales can be billion, representing a significant 17% drop. seen as a significant contribution to a resil- This represents 7.2% of the total value of ient U.S. aerospace industry357. U.S. exports359. Space sales in 2009 were $40.4 billion, rep- In the civilian domain, exports decreased by resenting a 4.1% increase when compared to 16% to $69 billion in 2009. Military exports $38.8 billion in 2008. Research and Devel- fell even further to $9.9 billion, or -23%. opment spending was not very high, as in Within the military domain, missiles, rockets 2008. Space-related contracts from NASA and associated parts exports amounted to and the Department of Defence went up only $1.3 billion, while spacecraft, satellites and slightly. The missile segment sales rose by associated parts exports stood at $187 mil- 11.3%, up to $14.8 billion358. lion360. Regarding export matters, U.S. aerospace U.S. aerospace imports are estimated at $25 companies did not manage to lessen their billion, equal to $12.7 billion or nearly a 34% dependence on the domestic market. Accord- decrease, negatively influencing all different ingly, foreign trade has become ever more product categories of U.S. aerospace imports. important, but at the same time less certain. The largest import sector by value remains Unlike in previous years, France moved into aircraft and engine parts. 50% of the entire the role of the leading purchaser, followed by imports originate from Canada and France. Taking into account all exports and imports, 356 the aerospace trade balance surplus stood at Aerospace Industries Association. 2009 Year End Review and 2010 Forecast. Arlington: AIA, Dec. 2009.
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$53.9 billion in 2009, down from $57.4 billion tally through a private or semi-private com- in 2008361. pany. The total employment figure in the U.S. aero- space industry was expected to be 641,000, 5.10.1 Launch Sector 16.000 less than the year before. In fact, employment decreased for the first time in 5 Despite its crucial importance for the satellite years. Aircraft manufacturing accounted for industry, the launch sector is an enabler approximately one third of the total work rather than a significant economic activity. force. The domain of guided missiles, space The revenues it generates are far less impor- vehicles and parts employed almost 76,300 tant than the ones originating from the satel- workers362. lite manufacturing and satellite services busi- ness. The year 2009 was an even more active year 5.10 Sectoral Overview for the launch sector than 2008, with a total of 78 launches conducted by launch providers In order to get a more detailed overview of from Russia, the United States, Europe, the main developments of the space industry China, India, Japan, North Korea, South Ko- in 2009, a segmental appraisal will be under- rea, Iran and the multinational consortium taken in the following section. Three main Sea Launch. Three non-commercial launches activity areas will be presented: the launch failed: a Taurus XL launch in February 2009, a North Korean Taepodong 2 launch in April sector, the satellite manufacturing sector and 364 the satellite operators. These three segments 2009 and a South Korean KSLV-1 launch . make up the two main components of the The main events for the rocket industry in overall space industrial business, namely the 2009 were the successful launch of RazakSAT launch sector and the satellite industry. The on the Falcon-1 vehicle by the privately- two strands of the business are closely inter- funded Space Exploration Technologies Cor- related, as none of these industry branches poration (SpaceX) from the company’s Kwa- can prosper without the other. Indeed, satel- jalein pad, and the collision of the Iridium lite manufacturers and satellite operators satellite and Cosmos 2251 spacecraft in Feb- need a guaranteed and stable access to ruary 2009. Furthermore, the Sea Launch space, whereas launch providers rely on or- Company’s bankruptcy and the following pro- ders from the satellite industry to sustain tection actions had a major influence on the their activities. launch industry sector. Additionally, 2009 It is important to clarify some central con- was marked by Iran’s first orbital launch in cepts which will be at the centre of the analy- February, successfully deploying its payload sis in the following sections, in particular the into LEO on a Safir three-stage rocket. As notions of commercial launch and commercial mentioned above, South Korea also per- payload. Indeed, since the commercial space formed its first orbital launch. However, the industry is growing in significance and pro- deployment of the satellite named STSAT 2A gressively replacing the traditional forms of in August 2009 failed. In 2009 North Korea also conducted its first launch since 1998, government-operated space activities, it has 365 become more difficult to define and interpret albeit an unsuccessful one . what commercial launches and commercial When looking into specific countries, Russia payloads encompass. In the following section, was again the world leader in the launch sec- a launch classification differentiating com- tor, representing approximately 37% of the mercial and non-commercial launches and total number of launches. It was followed by payloads will be used. A commercial payload the United States (app. 31% of the total), is described as having one or both of the Europe (app. 9%), China (app. 8%), Sea 363 following characteristics : Launch (app. 5%), Japan (app. 4%), India a) The payload is operated by a private com- (app. 3%) and South Korea, North Korea and pany. Iran which launched one vehicle each, or b) The payload is funded by the government, but provides satellite service partially or to-
361 Ibid. 364 Ibid. 362 Ibid. 365 Ibid. 363 Federal Aviation Administration. Commercial Space Milbank Space Smart. Space Business Review. Los Transportation: 2009 Year in Review. Washington DC: Angeles: Milbank, Dec. 2009.
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1.3% 1.3% 2.6% 1.3% 3.8% 5.1%
7.7% 37.2%
9.0%
30.8%
Russia USA Europe China Multinational Japan India North Korea South Korea Iran
Figure 5.5: Worldwide launches by country/entity in 2009 (Source: FAA367)
approximately 1% of the total launch figure 366 Launchers Number of Total number (Figure 5.5) . launch systems of launches Russia launched 29 vehicles in 2009, using eight different systems (as much as in 2008) Russia 8 29 whereas the United States conducted 24 USA 8 24 launches with eight different launch systems as well (three more than in 2008). China Europe 1 7 used five different systems for six launches, China 5 6 Japan two systems for three launches, Multinational 1 4 Europe one system for seven launches, Sea Launch one system for 4 launches, India one India 1 2 system for two launches and North Korea, Japan 2 3 South Korea and Iran each used one system for their respective launches. A total of 29 North Korea 1 1 different launch systems were used in 2008, eight more than in 2008 (Table 5.1)368. South Korea 1 1 Regarding the share of payload launched in Iran 1 1 2009, Russia, the United States, Europe and Total 29 78 India launched more than 80% of the total Table 5.1: Worldwide launches per country/entity and payload units launched in space in 2008. number of launch systems used in 2009 (Source: FAA) When considered in detail, Russia launched 37.8% of the total, while performing 37.2% of the launches. The United States accounted for 30.8% of launches and 25.2% of pay- loads. Europe launched 12.6% of the pay- 366 Federal Aviation Administration. Commercial Space loads with a share of only 9% of the total Transportation: 2009 Year in Review. Washington DC: launches. China accounted for 7.7% of the FAA, Jan. 2010.
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0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 3.6% 3.6% 6.3%
37.8% 8.1%
12.6%
25.2%
Russia USA Europe India China Multinational Japan North Korea South Korea Iran
Figure 5.6: Share of the total payloads launched in 2009 by country/entity (Source: FAA)
anespace concentrated on the launch of in 2009, five more than in 2008. Russia was heavier payloads. Indeed, the Ariane-5 vehi- the world leader again, as it launched 42 cle can carry two GTO satellites at a time, payloads. It was followed by the United thus sending heavier payloads in orbit with States, which launched 28 payloads and by fewer launches370. Europe which launched 14 payloads. India launched nine and China seven. The remain- In total, 111 payloads were launched in orbit
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0 Russia USA Europe India China Multinational Japan North Korea South Korea Iran
Commercial Non-commercial Figure 5.7: Payloads launched in 2009 by country/entity and by commercial status (Source: FAA)
370 Ibid.
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10.1% 15.6%
12.8%
19.3%
22.9%
19.3%
Micro Small Medium Intermediate Large Heavy Figure 5.8: Distribution of the payloads launched between April 2009 and March 2010 by mass class (Source: FAA)
ing Sea Launch consortium, Japan, North Jason or the RapidEye series. Medium pay- Korea, South Korea and Iran accounted for loads feature the most diverse set of satel- 11 payloads. In 2009, Russia took the lead in lites, including small satcoms in geostation- terms of commercial payloads as well (12 ary orbit, Earth Observation satellites, and payloads), followed by Europe and Sea most of the Russian military satellites from Launch (eight and three payloads), the the Kosmos series. Intermediate payloads United States (two payloads) and China (one encompass medium satcoms and big scien- payload – Figure 5.7)371. tific satellites. Large payloads refer to big satcoms, as well as to the Soyuz and Pro- There is a fairly equal distribution of payloads gress spacecrafts flying to the ISS. Lastly, among the different mass classes. In the heavy payloads are all linked to the ISS: the period from April 2009 to March 2010, micro, modules Kibo and Columbus, as well as the small, intermediate and large payloads were cargo spacecrafts ATV and Leonardo373. roughly equally distributed, as each class made up around 20% of the total number of Of the total launches conducted in 2009, 69% payloads launched. Large spacecrafts repre- were non-commercial, representing 54 sented around 13% of the total number of launches, and 31% were commercial, repre- payloads, and heavy ones accounted for only senting 24 launches. Only five actors per- around 10% (Figure 5.8)372. formed commercial launches, whereas five actors performed non-commercial launches. Micro payloads are mainly science satellites, As a whole, there was a decrease of commer- technological demonstrators or small com- cial launches from 28 in 2008 to 24 in 2009, munications satellites, like the Orbcomm after an increase in 2008 by comparison to series. Small payloads are very often Earth the previous year. Observation satellites, such as SAR-Lupe, As in 2008, GEO launches were again the top
371 commercial activity, and the whole space Federal Aviation Administration. Commercial Space transportation market was largely driven by Transportation: 2009 Year in Review. Washington DC: FAA, Jan. 2010.
ESPI Report 23 90 June 2010 Space Policies, Issues and Trends in 2009/2010
mestic institutional demand continued to vulnerable to satellite schedule slips378. In support the launch sector as ten out of 19 2009, the company’s sales are estimated at payloads related to government activities. €1 billion. At the beginning of this year, India and Japan focused on non-commercial Arianespace announced that 6 to 7 launches launches, as well as the newcomers North are scheduled for 2010379. Korea, South Korea and Iran. Russian As for the U.S. American launch providers, launchers conducted ten commercial Boeing Launch Services (BLS) conducted two launches, followed by the European Ariane-5 commercial launches. The first one was used with five commercial launches. Sea Launch to orbit the weather satellite GEOS into GEO and the U.S. conducted four commercial in June and the second to place the World- flights each and China one (Table 5.2)374. View 2 satellite into LEO. Lockheed Martin Commercial Launch Services (LMCLS) launched one Intelsat satellite into GEO380. Launchers Commercial Non- Total No. of commercial launches The two companies traditionally do not com- pete in the commercial launch market, as USA 4 20 24 their launch vehicles would not be cost- competitive for such an endeavour and as Russia 10 19 29 they can count on steady revenues from gov- ernmental demand381. SpaceX carried out its Europe 5 2 7 second successful commercial flight of the China 1 5 6 Falcon 1, transporting the Malaysian Razak- Sat satellite into LEO. Orbital Sciences Corpo- Multinat. 4 0 4 ration (OSC) performed two non-commercial India 0 2 2 launches in 2009, one of which failed in Feb- ruary 2009382. United Launch Alliance (ULA) Japan 0 3 3 and United Space Alliance (USA) carried ex- 383 No. Korea 0 1 1 clusively non-commercial launches. So. Korea 0 1 1 The Sea Launch Company launched only one single satellite from its sea-based platform in Iran 0 1 1 2009. This mission was carried out for the Total 24 54 78 Italian army, deploying a communication satellite in GEO. Additionally, the company Table 5.2: Worldwide launches in 2009 by country/entity conducted three Land Launch missions from and by commercial status (Source: FAA) Baikonur. All in all, Sea Launch launched only four rockets in 2009 compared to six Regarding the launch service providers, launches in 2008. This was due to the com- Arianespace again dominated the market, as pany’s bankruptcy in June and the resulting its Ariane-5 vehicle (ECA and GS versions) effort to restructure its finances384. During 375 flew seven times in 2009 . Arianespace has the first quarter of 2010, the company won more than 50% of the commercial planned to submit a reorganisation concept launch contracts worldwide in the last two as a step toward emerging from bankruptcy 376 years . In 2009 it placed 14 payloads into status385. orbit in seven launches, totalling 35 successes in seven years and confirming its 377 technological maturity . A core feature of 378 De Selding, Peter B. “Commercial Launch Providers the company is the ability to carry two Looking Ahead to Busier 2009”. Space News 5 Jan. 2009: satellites at a time, a characteristic which 11. maximises the benefits of using Ariane-5, but 379 Arianespace. Company Profile. Paris: Arianespace, which also makes the company more Jan. 2010
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3% 7%
45%
45%
Arianespace International Launch Services China Aerospace Corporation Mitsubishi Heavy Industries
Figure 5.9: Share of launch contracts for GEO satellites in 2009 by launch service provider
As far as the Russian launch service providers followed by Russia (app. $750 million) and are concerned, International Launch Services the U.S. (app. $300 million)388. (ILS), International Space Company Kosmo- An estimated 29 satellite launch contracts tras (ISC Kosmotras) and Eurockot Launch were signed in 2009 for geostationary space- Services carried the ten commercial launches crafts. The two main actors in the sector in 2009. ILS launched seven commercial Pro- were the same as in 2008, namely Ari- ton rockets in 2007, carrying mostly commu- anespace and ILS, followed by China Aero- nication satellites. Additionally, ILS conducted space Corporation and Mitsubishi Heavy In- three launches for its prime contractor dustries as minor actors (Figure 5.9)389. Khrunichev, for example taking three GLONASS navigation satellites into their or- Arianespace had a very solid year again in bits in December 2009386. ISC Kosmotras terms of contracts signed, winning more than launched one Dnepr-1 rocket and Eurockot half of the open competition commercial con- one Rockot387. tracts. These “Services and Solutions” con- tracts include for instance the launches for Total commercial launch revenues in 2009 satellite owners Hispasat, Arabsat, Intelsat, amounted to roughly $2.5 billion, about $500 Inmarsat and Avanti Communication390. Fur- million more than in 2008. Not surprisingly thermore, Arianespace signed a contract with according to its market share in commercial the ESA in June 2008 for two Soyuz launch space flights, Europe takes the lead account- vehicles in order to orbit the first four opera- ing for approximately $1 billion in revenues, tional Galileo satellites from Europe’s Space- port in French Guiana391. The company plans to continue its steady launch rate in the near
2010
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term392. Arianespace also signed a contract in 2009, in spite of the elimination of Sea with Astrium for the production of 35 Ariane- Launch as a competitor396. Nevertheless, 5ECA rockets in February 2009, at an esti- launch prices worldwide have been increasing mated €4 billion value. With this contract, in the past two years. This process continued Arianespace has a total of 49 Ariane-5 in its in 2009, especially due to the bankruptcy of backlog393. Sea Launch397. Therefore, satellite operators have become increasingly worried by the ILS also signed 13 launch contracts for GEO launch market’s diminishingly competitive satcoms in 2009, 6 more than in 2009 and as nature. much as Arianespace. The contract partners include satellite owners AsiaSat, Intelsat, SES World Skies, Intelsat and Eutelsat, among 5.10.2 Satellite Manufacturing Sector others. Satellite services represent the most mature Sea Launch signed six launch contracts in and lucrative market in the space sector. 2008. Due to its mid-2009 bankruptcy, the Indeed, space based communications is the company lost its status and the ability to sign core business for satellite service providers contracts for future launches. The loss of Sea and satellite manufacturers alike. Therefore, Launch as a main provider resulted in a mar- looking at the market share of satellites ket duopoly of Arianespace and ILS, a situa- launched and rdered in a given year is not tion about which commercial satellite fleet only a good indication of the vitality of do- operators expressed great concern. Sea mestic space industries, but it also helps as- Launch might emerge from bankruptcy by sessing the global trends in the space indus- 394 the end of this year . try. Among the remaining actors in the launch In 2009 111 payloads were launched. Only sectors, the China Great Wall Aerospace Cor- 23% of the payloads were commercial, sig- poration won a contract for the Nigerian Nig- nificantly less than in 2008, when they repre- comsat-2 satellite and the Apstar 7 of APT sented 40%. 38% of the launched payloads Satellite Holdings. Mitsubishi Heavy Indus- were manufactured by Russia, 25% by the tries on the other hand, signed a contract U.S. and 6% by China. Europe accounted for with the Korea Aerospace Research Institute 13% of the payloads launched (Figures 5.6 395 for the launch of the Kompsat-3 satellite . and 5.7)398. The main feature of the launch industry in 98 satellites were launched in 2009, nine 2009 was the more or less unexpected bank- more than in 2008. Most of them were manu- ruptcy of Sea Launch and its side effects. The factured by U.S. companies with 39 of the two remaining principal launch services pro- satellites launched (40% of the total figure), viders Arianespace and ILS had to fill in the followed by Europe (24 satellites representing gap for former Sea Launch customers, which 24.5% of the total), Russia (15 satellites or led to the creation of a duopoly market. The 15.3%) and China (13 satellites or reaction among satellite operators led by 14.5%)399. Intelsat and SES was to increase pressure for loosening U.S. export controls on spacecraft When looking at the performances by the launched in China. Arianespace and ILS how- bigger satellite manufacturing companies, ever claim that they did not see much growth Thales Alenia had a very active year as 11 of its satellites were launched in orbit in 2009. Other European manufacturers such as Sur- 392 Arianespace. Company Profile. Paris: Arianespace, Jan. 2010.
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a i i L) T n ce O a e rtin ing ces um a IAI si ME .S. a e AS bish SR a/ rop U (SS/ en C stri u Surrey I s Alen l Bo - Africa Rus Eu d M Sci A - Asi er - ee Mits r - th hale Lora tal DS ther r - O T s O ther the ckh rbi EA trop GrummBall Aerospa O the O Lo O O stem orth N e Sy ac Sp
Non-commercial Commercial
Figure 5.10: Satellites launched in 2009 by manufacturer and commercial status (Source: Futron)
rey and EADS Astrium accounted for two and 2008. Manufacturers from the U.S. won 19 four satellites respectively. The two top U.S. contracts, whereas European manufacturers satellite manufacturers were Space Sys- signed 12 and Russian manufacturers 5. tems/Loral (SSL) and Lockheed Martin with There were also satellite orders with two co- seven and six satellites respectively, followed prime contractors: The two Arabsat 5C and by Boeing and Orbital, with five spacecraft 6B satellites will be built by Thales Alenia and each (Figures 5.10 and 5.11)400. EADS Astrium, and the OverHorizon satellite of OverHorizon AB by Orbital and Thales Of the 98 satellites launched, 26 were com- Alenia (Figure 5.12)402. mercial. The main part of the commercial satellites launched were European or U.S. As for market trends compared to the previ- built: seven of the commercial satellites were ous year, in 2009 the sector witnessed the European, representing only 27% of the total entry of two new actors in the commercial number of commercial satellites launched, export business. The German-based OHB whereas 17 commercial satellites were manu- System AG won a contract for its first Small- factured in the U.S., accounting for 65% of GEO mission. The building contract for the the total. 28 satellites were launched to GEO Spanish Hispasat AG-1 communication satel- and 70 into other orbits. When looking at lite has a value of €48 million403. Additionally, GEO satellites, Europe lost the lead it held in OHB attracted the industry’s attention by 2009: 25% of the GEO satellites launched in 2009 were European (three made by EADS Astrium and four by Thales Alenia). In con- 402 De Selding, Peter B. “Export-Credit Financing Helps trast, 61% of the GEO satellites launched Boost 2009 Satellite Orders”. Space News 4 Jan. 2010: were U.S. built, whereas Russian ones ac- 12. counted for 11% of the total figure401. Futron Corporation. Satellite Orders Report. Wisconsin: Futron, Dec. 2009.
ESPI Report 23 94 June 2010 Space Policies, Issues and Trends in 2009/2010
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) g I . /L n es IA S c ssia ei SRO u U. (SS o CAST strium Surrey I - s Alenia B A Europe e er oral S Mitsubishi r - R h L D e er - Ot Other - Africath h Thal ckheed Martin rbital Scien EA O ms o Ball Aerospace Other - Asia/MEOt te L O Northtrop Grumman
ace Sys p S
GEO Non-GEO
Figure 5.11: Satellites launched in 2009 by manufacturer and orbit type (Source: Futron)
winning the contract to build 14 Galileo- rising number of contracts and the interna- satellites for €566 million404. The second tional involvement of Russian companies are newcomer was the Canadian MacDonald indicators of the increasing integration of Dettweiller and Associates Company, chosen Russia’s satcom industry into the global mar- to build a communication satellite system for ket. the National Space Agency of Ukraine, which In 2009 China’s presence in the satellite also includes a GEO communication satellite. market was also confirmed by contracts at- This satellite will support direct broadcast tributed to Chinese companies from Nigerian television and high-speed Internet access in satellite services providers, the Asia-Pacific Ukraine405. Mobile Communications Satellite Company The Russian manufacturer ISS-Reshetnev Limited and the Laos National Authority for won, among others, a contract with the Rus- Science and Technology407. However, there is sian Radio Research and Development Insti- still some uncertainty regarding the long term tute for developing the Express AM5 and AM6 sustainability of the Chinese market pres- satellites in May 2009. For this project, ISS- ence, due to a Long March 3B rocket failure Reshetnev cooperates with Thales Alenia. in August. The rocket’s malfunction did not Additionally, the company negotiated a con- allow it to place the Indonesian commercial tract on a TELKOM-3 telecommunication sat- 406 ellite for PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia . The
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3 5 5 Number of GEO satellites ordered 2 4 4 3
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v ia g ll in rch tem SS/L trium Wa ea eiller s s Alen Boe at Martin s w A s e e ett S l Sciences R ale Gr e D a a c d AD S-Reshetne Th n l OHB Sy E IS i a Orbit h Lockheed on C Spa D n c dia In Ma
Figure 5.12: GEO satellite orders in 2009 by manufacturer
communications satellite Palapa-D into comer OHB System AG won one contract with GTO408. Hispasat. As for the U.S. satellite manufac- turers, Boeing was contracted by Intelsat to Despite the emergence of the new actors, the build four new 702B satellites, which could traditional satellite manufacturers from give the company a chance to rapidly re- Europe and the U.S. had a very good year. As enter the commercial market within the a whole, the business stayed stable despite course of this year. Orbital Sciences won five the crisis, and the main buyers of satellites contracts, including orders from Intelsat and remained the major satellite fleet operators: OverHorizon. Loral Space and Communica- SES and Intelsat alone accounted for more tions has invested $350 million in the past than a third of the orders. If the growth of few years into its SSL division. This enabled the sector continues at this pace, one could the company to sign nine contracts in 2009. expect a stable rate of replacement satellite Loral is the only satellite manufacturer which orders, at around 20 spacecrafts per year. depends entirely on commercial contracts. The growing commercial capabilities in Japan, Consequently, it is also more vulnerable to South Korea, India and elsewhere could have market fluctuations than other manufactur- further positive effects. However, the main ers410. commercial satellite providers such as SES, Intelsat and Eutelsat have already promised With the exception of Loral, no satellite to subside investing now that they have manufacturer relies on commercial orders completed their hardware replacement ex- alone. Therefore, institutional orders consti- pansion cycle409. tute an important segment for the satellite manufacturing sector, particularly in the Looking at the European satellite manufac- United States. For example, Orbitel an- turers in more detail, EADS won seven con- tracts in 2009, whereas Thales Alenia had four orders, excluding the co-orders with 410 Ibid. EADS Astrium and Orbital Sciences. New- Futron Corporation. Satellite Orders Report. Wisconsin: Futron, Dec. 2009.
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nounced that its advanced space programme government related satellite manufacturing division increased revenue by 15.6 percent in business still represents the greatest revenue 2009 and will continue to grow in 2010, source for the sector’s companies. mainly thanks to manufacturing classified and In terms of future perspectives, 20 to 25 unclassified satellites for the U.S. govern- satellites are expected to be launched annu- ment411. In Europe, the biggest non- ally in the next few years. Rising technologies commercial order was that of the 14 Galileo e.g. HDTV are keeping up the demand for satellites to the German OHB company, leav- new satellites.412 However, the current “high ing behind the main competitor, EADS As- cycle” of the manufacturing market should trium. In 2009, only a little more than 25% last until 2013 and corresponds to replace- of all launched satellites was commercial. ment of older satellites. Consequently, the
411 De Selding, Peter B. “Orbital Bullish on U.S. National Security Satellite Market” 19 Feb. 2010. Space News 19 412 De Selding, Peter B. “Export-Credit Financing Helps Mar. 2009
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6. The Defence Perspective
The following chapter briefly presents key developments in the field of military related space activities. These include the military 6.2 Europe space government programmes and related spending, the industrial achievements in mili- tary space technologies and the evolution of 6.2.1 National Military Space Programmes space security doctrines of all the major Although European cooperation in dual-use space-faring nations. Nevertheless, one space technologies is increasing, military should take into account that studying mili- space activities in 2009 and 2010 remain tary space activities based on open sources is predominantly within the national govern- always a difficult task, given the confidential- ment’s field of competences. Consequently, ity clauses that usually apply to them. Con- European cooperation in such matters re- sequently, all the verifiable facts and figures mained into the sphere of bilateral or at best given below cannot provide a fully detailed multilateral arrangements among the major picture of all related developments. They do European space-faring nations. however put them in perspective by providing an overall estimate of the general trends in The domain of Space Situational Awareness this field. in particular has been one of the areas that attracted particular attention in the last 12 months. The German Armed Forces for ex- ample, proceeded to the creation of a sepa- 6.1 Recent Trends in Military rate military command to coordinate space Expenditure surveillance activities, known as the German Space Situational Awareness Centre Space-related military spending remained (GSSAC). The command’s facility was inaugu- generally stable in 2009 and 2010. While the rated in 2009 and it was projected to reach worldwide military spending on space rose the planned staffing ceiling already within slightly by 7% from $29.4 billion in 2008 to 2010. The centre’s creation was deemed nec- $31.8 billion in 2009, the share nearly re- essary not only to facilitate German military mained the same. Again, the United States participation in the future European space- led by far with a share of 90% of worldwide monitoring capability, but also to develop the space-related defence expenditures, but the country’s national competencies in this 414 sum of the other countries now occupy a field . bigger share of 10% compared to 5% in Furthermore, Germany and France are the 2008. However, the European space spending only EU members that have a limited space dedicated to military use decreased in 2009 413 surveillance capability through the use of two by 32% to approximately $752 million . nationally operated Radars. These are the It has to be stated that money spent on dual- German TIRA, which is capable of tracking use programmes or research is not included objects in orbit and determining their nature, in this overview. It should also be kept in and the French Graves, which is more suit- mind that spending is not always clearly al- able for wide area surveillance. Given the locable, because some budget positions can complementarity of the two systems there be assigned to various categories. The stan- has been a strong incentive for bilateral co- dard confidentiality and secrecy along with operation on their use. Therefore, the two potential opaqueness can further complicate countries have initiated in 2009 an exchange matters. Different purchasing powers and of surveillance data programme, enabling work force costs add another degree of ambi- them to coordinate the use of both systems guity, calling for relativisation of numerical and to multiply their operational usefulness. budget values (cf. chapter 2.2). Nevertheless, even the combined systems’ accuracy is not always sufficient for the accu-
414 De Selding, Peter B. ”Europe Keeping Increasingly Capable Eye on Orbital Debris”. Space News 26 Apr. 413 Figures are derived from Euroconsult data. 2010: 6.
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rate identification and tracking of objects in Ministry officials announced they were on orbit. Therefore, both countries still have to track to increase military space spending by rely on USAF’s space monitoring network for 8% annually through 2014, in accordance more accurate measurements in order to with the defence policy announced by Presi- avoid losing their military space assets to dent N. Sarkozy in 2008, before the financial collisions with space debris415. crisis’s consequences were fully felt. This would mean that French military space However, since military space still remains budget would rise to €600 million by that predominantly under strict national jurisdic- year, from €380 million in 2008. An addi- tion, European cooperation does not proceed tional €200 million would be channelled to at the same pace in all areas of activity. Con- the French space agency CNES for dual-use trary to the dual-use SSA where cooperation technologies development. At the same time, has been increasing, negotiations on the the country’s joint defence staffs was set to MUSIS system stagnated throughout 2009 create a Joint Space Command by July 2010 and 2010. MUSIS is a six-nation European in order to coordinate military space assets effort to build a common ground segment for use better. At the same time, France was its members’ Earth observation satellites. actively seeking participation from other EU Some participating countries would contribute countries in its future optical and electronic their optical reconnaissance satellites to the surveillance satellites418. common system, others their Radar satellites and others would only share its operating At the same time in the UK, Defence Ministry financial burden. This complicated arrange- officials announced they were considering a ment however has made it difficult to quan- revision to the Skynet 5 contract with Para- tify each participating country’s contribution digm, an EADS Astrium Services subsidiary, to and expected returns from MUSIS. Conse- to allow for the addition of a forth satellite to quently, negotiations among the participants the Skynet 5 constellation. According to the have been fruitless for the past 12 months same sources, tactical imagery transmission and the programme’s future was threatened demand from UK forces in Afghanistan has as certain participant countries could be in- brought the existing three satellite constella- clined to proceed independently with their tion to its capacity limits. Furthermore, de- national projects416. mand was expected to double in the next 5 years, or quadruple by comparison to the In spite of the difficulties that the multilateral initial bandwidth demand models made back MUSIS programme has encountered, the in 1998, on the basis of which the contract bilateral cooperation between Germany and with Paradigm was concluded. For the time France in the field of Earth observation (EO) being, UK officials said they were dealing with satellite data exchange moved forward in the situation by scrutinising transmission 2009 and 2010. On 4 May, satellite manufac- demands and using the Skynet 5C spacecraft, turer OHB of Bremen announced it had se- which was originally planned as a back-up cured a €14 million contract in order to pro- spare satellite. Military satellite communica- vide ground stations to both countries per- tions providers in France and other NATO mitting access to data from each other’s EO countries admitted facing the same problem spacecraft. Under this Franco-German bilat- as well419. eral agreement known as the Europeanisation of Satellite-Based Reconnaissance pro- Finally, the decision to deploy a fourth Skynet gramme (E-SGA), France would be granted 5 satellite was officially announced on 9 access to data from the German radar EO March 2010. The original Skynet 5 contract SAR-Lupe satellites and Germany from the with Paradigm was valued at £3.5 billion French Helios 2 optical EO satellites. Ground through 2020 for the lease of three commu- stations in both countries were already under nications satellites and related services. This construction and they were expected to be- contract was extended through 2022 for an come operational by July 2010417. additional cost of £400 million, allowing Para- digm to launch a fourth satellite by 2013 in The increasing importance attributed to mili- order to meet the increased demand. Since tary space activities in Europe was also re- the Skynet 5 contract was originally set up as flected in their increasing budgets, which a public-private partnership (PPP), with Para- showed remarkable resilience to the past 12 digm maintaining the ownership of the months’ adverse financial conditions. On 25 spacecrafts and leasing their services to the November 2009 for example, French Defence military, the extension costs would only bur- den the UK government towards the end of
415 Ibid. 416 “MUSIS Ground System Deal Teeters on Edge of 418 De Selding, Peter B. “France Seeks Military Space Collapse”. Space News 26 Apr. 2010:6. Investment Partners”. Space News 30 Nov. 2009: 6. 417 “OHB To Support Franco-German imagery Sharing”. 419 De Selding, Peter B. “British Military’s Satellite Capacity Space News 10 May 2010: 9. Nearing Its Limit”. Space News 23 Nov. 2009: 11.
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its duration. Thus, British armed forces would currently under final assembly. This decision be able to use the fourth satellite and only would mainly affect Chinese-built parts of the pay for it in 2020. This outcome clearly dem- spacecrafts, for which European-made substi- onstrated the advantage of PPP’s adaptability tutes would have to be found. Furthermore, to changing operational needs, especially at a should this decision materialise, it might also time of budgetary difficulties for the UK420. impede the procurement of the Canadian- built search and rescue terminals currently The satellite manufacturer Thales Alenia envisaged for the system. This significant Space and the ground-services provider Tele- change in the programme’s procurement spazio are to build the Sicral 2 military tele- policy could also be seen as a result of its communications satellite, going to be change from a private-public partnership to a launched in 2013. The satellite will be used 100% public financed project422. by both the Italian and the French defence ministries, containing separate UHF- and Furthermore, this decision was reinforced by SHF-frequency payloads for both countries. China’s own step towards the development of However, this joint military satellite project its own national satellite navigation system marks a clear break to previous European called Beidou (Compass). The system was politics where countries have their own mili- originally planned to provide only regional tary communications satellite systems. Note- coverage, with China relying on Galileo for worthy is the fact that both contracting com- global wide use. However, this policy is now panies are in a joint French-Italian owner- changed and China is developing Beidou as a ship. The satellite is to be included in global system, directly competitive to Galileo. France's Syracuse 3 system and will enforce This development has also created friction Italy's capacities to contribute UHF bandwidth between European and Chinese authorities to NATO421. over radio frequencies reserved for each sys- tem’s government-only use, known in Europe as the Public Regulated Service (PRS) and in 6.2.2 European Union China as the Authorised Service. Although In 2009 and 2010 the European Union has these systems should in principal emit in been increasing its involvement in dual-use different frequencies, negotiations over allo- military applications that could potentially cating them between Galileo and Beidou have have a military usefulness. EU security re- been fruitless up to now. On the contrary, a lated space activities are mostly managed similar agreement between Europe and the through the European Union Commission, the U.S. was signed already in 2004 and similar European Defence Agency and the European negotiations with Russia on cooperation with Union Satellite Centre. The European Space its Glonass system also saw progress in 423 Agency also acts as a programme coordinator 2010 . and procurement authority for most of these Finally, in a related development EU member- projects. The EU’s principal security related states reached in March a preliminary agree- programmes include the Galileo navigation ment on the service use policy of PRS. Nego- and positioning satellite constellation, the tiations were expected to conclude by the Global Monitoring for Environment and Secu- end of 2010, but it appeared that EU gov- rity (GMES) Earth observation programme ernments would be granted direct and uncon- and the Space Situational Awareness (SSA) strained access to Galileo’s encrypted military project. As all of the aforementioned pro- signal. This arrangement would imply that EU grammes are of potentially dual civil-military member-states would all create their own usefulness, they were already presented in national points of contact with the system’s details in chapter 3 of this report. However, a two Galileo Security Monitoring Centres brief analysis of developments related more (GSMC) in France and the UK and they would closely to their space security aspects would be solely responsible for the service’s use by be pertinent in this chapter. their authorities. Furthermore, officials from One of the key planks in the past 12 months the Galileo Supervisory Authority (GSA) dis- in European space security policy has been closed that all member-states would have the drive to achieve strategic non- unrestrained access to the service and no dependence in critical space capabilities. This prior approval by EU institutions or authori- trend was confirmed in March 2010, when the ties would be required for its military use. European Commission made known it was However, according to the same sources, the considering the removal of all non-European question of whether the PRS would be com- built components from the Galileo satellites pletely free of charge like its GPS counterpart
420 “Extension Prompts Paradigm To Order 4th Skynet 5”. 422 De Selding, Peter B. “European Officials Poised to Space News 15 Mar. 2010: 8. Remove Chinese Payloads From Galileo Sats”. Space 421 De Selding, Peter B. “Thales Alenia Space, Telespazio News 15 Mar. 2010: 1. To Build Sicral 2 Satellite.” Space News 10 May 2010: 5. 423 Ibid.
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or if its use would entail a certain fee was not Earth observation satellites, offering shorter yet decided. Needless to say that any charge revisit periods than space assets426. related to PRS could damage Galileo’s com- Finally, ESA involvement into space security petitiveness to its U.S. counterpart424. applications became greater in May 2010, when the agency began the concept devel- 6.2.3 ESA opment of a system of systems focused on utilising existing and future European space One of the principal trends in 2009 and 2010 capabilities for security purposes. The pro- has been the increasing involvement of the gramme, known as the Global Integrated European Space Agency (ESA) to the devel- Architecture for Innovative Utilisation of opment of dual-use space capabilities for Space for Security (or Gianus), intends to Europe. This tendency has led to an in- integrate all existing European Earth observa- creased level of cooperation with the Euro- tion, communications and navigation satel- pean Defence Agency (EDA), which is the lites into a single interface. By creating a only other European institution tackling this unified operational system from all European issue. space assets, Gianus would facilitate its use This trend was especially evident in the de- for security purposes and eventually make it velopment of the future European Space more adaptable to specific military opera- Situational Awareness (SSA) system. Both tional needs. At a time when military budgets agencies were scheduled to start official dis- across Europe are strained by the ongoing cussions in 2010 on the subject of how the financial crisis, dual-use space systems de- European dual-use SSA should be created veloped could be a viable option for the ma- 427 and managed. Although the SSA started as jority of its member-states . an ESA programme, EDA became quickly involved, mostly upon the insistence of Euro- pean governments. In fact, the past 12 6.3 The United States months have witnessed increasing pressure in favour of the active participation of EU As the Operationally Responsive Space con- military personnel in SSA’s development and cept is maturing in the United States, more operational use, with certain voices even and more major U.S. space contractors, such calling for the complete militarisation of the as Boeing or Lockheed Martin, are becoming system’s operating concept. This trend has interested in it. Boeing’s Phantom Work’s been also induced by the rising number of Advanced Network and Space Systems are European military space assets in use, as well currently working on small satellites that they the growing realisation of their vulnerability 425 qualify as “disruptive technology”. Analysts in to space debris collisions described above . the U.S. expect 17 more small satellites to be Another example of ESA-EDA coordination built within the next decade, for a projected appeared in February 2010, when they both total value of $1.4 billion (a 40% increase issued parallel contracts of a €400,000 value from current levels). The Pentagon is moving and 6 month duration each for the realisation forward with purchasing smaller, simpler and of two preliminary concept studies investigat- cheaper satellites to cover ORS needs for a ing the use of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles number of reasons, including their afforda- (UAVs) for domestic and maritime security bility, survivability and launch-on-demand 428 purposes in Europe. Although the two agen- capability . cies demanded separate studies, they never- In a related development, the U.S. National theless issued a common request for propos- Reconnaissance Office (NRO) has started a als. This fact undoubtedly illustrates the new program to use tiny satellites, known as gradual expansion of ESA’s mandate into the “cubesats”, as in-space test platforms for field of security-related activities. Although it future satellite technologies. “Cubesats” sat- is forbidden for UAVs to fly over European ellite buses, which typically measure civilian airspace in order to avoid accidents, it 10x10x10 cm, are relatively cheap, they can is anticipated that this regulation will change be purchased in bulk and be ready on de- as UAVs demonstrate an increasing degree of mand to serve as test platforms. They could operational reliability. The future UAV system help NRO to validate new instruments, mis- envisaged would use satellite communica- sions and capabilities, such as hyperspectral tions to downstream surveillance data and it is expected to operate complementary to 426 De Selding, Peter B. “European Space, Defence Agen- cies Study New Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Service“. Space 424 “Individual European Nations To Determine Uses for News 22 Feb. 2010: 12. PRS”. Space News 15 Mar. 2010: 16. 427 “ESA Eyes Military Addition To Civil Satellite Network”. 425 De Selding, Peter B. ”Europe Keeping Increasingly Space News 26 Apr. 2010: 6. Capable Eye on Orbital Debris”. Space News 26 Apr. 428 Bennett, John T. “Small Satellites Attract Interest from 2010: 6. Large U.S. Companies“. Space News 27 July 2009: A4.
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sensors, attitude control systems, or radio- On 18 August, U.S.A.F. announced the re- frequency modules. NRO has reportedly sults of the Schreiver War Games 5 space asked for acquiring approximately 20 to 50 defence exercise, held at Nellis Air Force base “cubesats” at a $250,000 unit cost, over a in April 2009. During the exercise it became two-year period beginning in 2010. One more clear that a sophisticated space-faring nation advantage of using “cubesats” would be that could deny key U.S. military space capabili- they could be launched in a timely fashion ties in case of conflict. The exercise scenario aboard the first available launcher. NRO was also established the need for improved space even considering placing them on top of surveillance capabilities, especially as far as NASA’s boosters 429. tracking small satellites is concerned. In fact, U.S.A.F. admitted that during the exercise In a parallel development, U.S.A.F. Space they were often unable to determine the na- and Missile Systems Centre (SMC) issued on ture and source of events involving small 13 November a Request for Information (RfI) satellites434. on the possible development of its first cube- sat demonstrator mission. SMC was particu- On 11 August the U.S. National Geospatial- larly interesting in validating the operational Intelligence Agency (NGA) announced its utility of a cubesat constellation. The demon- plans to issue up to four $85 million and 5 strator would be used to collect space year duration contracts to commercial pro- weather data, it should have an operational viders of radar satellite images. The request life span of 1 year at a 400 km altitude and it included Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) should de-orbit within 5430. images both in the X and the C band. Since the U.S. lack commercial radar satellites, Furthermore, the U.S. Missile Defence Agency demand will have to be met by European (MDA) was also reported to seek comple- (Cosmos Skymed and TerraSAR-X) and Is- menting its future Space Tracking and Sur- raeli (TecSAR) satellites. The request repre- veillance System (STSS) with a constellation sents a considerable budget increase from of small satellites, known as the Precision the $10 million that NGA has been paying Tracking and Surveillance System (PTSS). annually to the Canadian Radarsat-2 operator MDA has been persistently asking the Con- for similar services over the past ten years. gress to fund a 1,125 Kilogram demonstra- Its broad requirements would also indicate tion satellite for several years now431. that contracts will be most likely split among On the other side, the U.S. Senate Armed several operators435. Services Committee’s 2010 defence authori- EnhancedView is part of a wider satellite im- sation bill more than doubled the budget for agery strategy for national security purposes ORS that the Pentagon had requested. In announced by Director of national Intelli- fact, Senators appropriated an additional gence Dennis Blair, on 7 April 2009 and ap- $170 million to the Air Force’s $112.9 million proved by President B. Obama. The concept, request for the ORS Office in 2010. Extra known as “two-plus-two”, has two piers. One funding included a program to build proto- is the purchase of two highly sophisticated type, low-cost, half-metre ground resolution imaging satellites by the National Reconnais- imaging satellites within 36 months. The ul- sance Office (NRO) for strategic intelligence timate goal would be to field a large constel- purposes, scheduled to be build by Lockheed lation of such satellites and to acquire them Martin Space Systems. The other is the con- on a fixed-price basis for no more than $100 tractual purchase of lower resolution images million a piece, including launching costs432. from two less capable commercial satellites In another development, the U.S. House of by the NGA, for geospatial and tactical mili- Representatives approved on 30 July an $80 tary use. This approach was adopted in the million funding for Northrop Grumman to U.S. House of Representatives’ 2010 Defence continue development of its Kinetic Energy Appropriations Bill. Interceptor (KEI), in spite of the Defence On the contrary, the Senate’s Defence and Department’s repeated attempts to cancel Intelligence Authorisation Bills asked for the the project433. deployment of a larger constellation of cheaper and less technically advanced satel- lites436. On 16 September the Senate’s De- 429 Klamper, Amy. ”NRO Embraces Cubesats for Testing fence Authorisation Bill upheld this option and Advanced Technologies”. Space News 10 Aug. 2009: 11. effectively turned down the version of the Bill 430 “SMC Looks to Demonstrate Military Utility of Cubesats”. Space News 23 Nov. 2009: 3. 431 ”Missile Defence Agency Eyes Small Tracking Sats”. 434 “War Game Shows Need for Better Space Space News 24 Aug. 2009: 3. Surveillance“. Space News 24 Aug. 2009: 3. 432 Brinton, Turner. “Low-Cost Imaging Satellites 435 Brinton, Turner. “NGA Solicits Proposals for Encouraged in Defence Bill”. Space News 13 July 2009: 7. Commercial Radar Imagery“. Space News 14 Sept. 2009: 433 “Cancelled KEI Program Is Resurrected in U.S. House”. 4. Space News 3 Aug. 2009: 3. 436 Ibid.
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preferred by the Obama Administration. On 22 October U.S. Defence Secretary R. NRO’s Director Bruce Carlson his opposition Gates announced during an official visit to the to the Senate’s proposed plan, which he Republic of Korea (RoK) that the U.S. would deemed technologically riskier. Low techno- extend its missile defence shield over that logical risk was the primary driver behind country. Under this doctrine of “extended Lockheed Martin’s selection, after Boeing’s deterrence”, he said, the U.S. would use the failure to develop a more advanced system full range of its military capabilities (conven- under NRO’s Future Imaging Architecture tional, nuclear and missile defence) to defend (FIA) in 2005. According to press reports, the RoK against any incursion from the North. two companies’ struggle for the contract The announcement was made as RoK is mov- could be behind the Senate’s decision, as the ing forward with its own autonomous ballistic two Senators that opposed NRO’s plans the missile defence system, based on Aegis de- most have important Boeing facilities in their stroyers and Patriot Advanced Capability-2 constituencies437. interceptors441. On 17 September the U.S. Defence Advanced In an interesting technology development, Research Projects Agency (DARPA) proceeded the U.S. Defence Advanced Research Projects to an open call for new concepts for removing Agency (DARPA) issued a Request for Infor- space debris from Low Earth Orbits (LEO)438. mation (RfI) on 22 October for a system that The announcement was made as DARPA and could provide internet connectivity to Low NASA were preparing to host o joint confer- Earth Orbit (LEO) satellites. The Request, ence on this subject later that year. Accord- issued by DARPA’s Tactical Technology Office, ing to NASA’s Office of Safety and Mission called for a 100 Kilobit per second broadband Assurance, coming up with innovative and connexion to all LEO satellites flying at a 500 inexpensive solutions could prove difficult. km altitude and in any orbit. The RfI also They were particularly concerned by the asked for 95% operational availability and threat to space environment posed by in- the capacity to be used not only for creasing numbers of tiny satellites, such as downloading data, but also for telemetry and cubesats. Since cubesats are currently almost controlling the satellite. Information from undetectable, their proliferation creates un- government laboratories, universities and controlled space debris and increases the private companies were due in 5 Novem- danger of cascade collisions. However, find- ber442. ing ways to remove debris from LEO could Following on this RfI, DARPA issued on 3 also run into diplomatic disagreements, as February 2010 a Notice of Intent to award a any such system would inherently also be sole source contract to develop and build the capable of working as an orbital Anti Satellite necessary hardware to Inmarsat plc of United weapon (ASAT)439. Kingdom. The contract, under a program On 9 October U.S.A.F. issued a request for called the “Persistent Broadband Ground information for the development of its next Connectivity for Spacecraft in Low Earth Orbit generation of space-weather monitoring sat- Effort”, solicited the Broadband Global Area ellites. U.S.A.F. is currently using sensors Network (BGAN) service provided by Inmar- onboard its Defence Meteorological Satellite sat’s I-4 communications satellite. The pro- Program spacecrafts. Nevertheless, similar ject’s objective would be to provide near- payloads have been eliminated from its suc- 24/7, very low latency, on-demand ground- cessor, the civil-military National Polar- to-spacecraft connectivity for LEO satellites. Orbiting Operational Satellite System, be- From an operational perspective this would cause of budget cuts. This request for infor- greatly enhance Operationally Responsive mation would be a first step in exploring al- Space capabilities, allowing performing of ternatives for a space-weather monitoring missions such as time-sensitive satellite con- system that could involve payloads onboard trol directly from the theatre of operations, commercial satellites, or small dedicated sat- rapid data transfer and direct-to-theatre data ellites. The program has secured an initial delivery on small portable devices443. $15 million budget and launch is expected in 440 2015 . 441 Sunk-Ki, Jung. “U.S. Promises Missile Shield for South Korea”. Space News 2 Nov. 2009: 14. 437 Brinton, Turner. “NRO Director Defends Plan for 442 “DARPA Plan Would Connect Satellites to the Internet”. Electro-Optical Spy Satellites”. Space News 12 Oct. 2009: Space News 9 Nov. 2009: 8. 1. 443 United States Department of Commerce, Federal 438 “DARPA Seeks Ideas for Orbital Debris Removal“. Business Opportunities. “Persistent Broadband Ground Space News 21 Sept. 2009: 3. Connectivity for Spacecraft in Low Earth Orbit (LEO)”. Sol. 439 David, Leonard. “Orbital Debris Cleanup Takes Centre No DARPA-SN-10-28, 3 Feb. 2010. Stage“. Space News 28 Sept. 2009: 15.
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For this purpose, a space-based version of three contracts to commercial radar satellite Inmarsat’s BGAN airborne terminal would be imaging companies. These included EADS developed, tested, certified and integrated North America, Lockheed martin Space Sys- into the planned F6 fractionated spacecraft tems and MDA Geospatial Services of Can- demonstration cluster, scheduled for launch ada. The first two would provide imaging in 2013. According to the same announce- from European commercial spacecraft, nota- ment, Inmarsat has been selected as the sole bly the German TerraSAR-X and the Italian source contractor for this program because of Cosmo-Skymed (through its commercial its considerable expertise in the field of end- brunch e-Geos) spacecrafts respectively. The to-end satellite broadband services444. Inmar- third would use imaging from Canada’s Ra- sat itself had sought to boost its business darsat-1 and -2 satellites. The total value of with U.S. government agencies, when it ac- the contracts was estimated to reach $85 quired the U.S. based communication ser- million over a period of 5 years. Commercial vices provider Segovia Inc. on 23 November images would act complementary to data 2009445. acquired through more sophisticated U.S. military radar observation satellites448. On 10 October Lockheed Martin Aerospace launched the scaled prototype of a rocket In an interview on 14 December 2009, the plane from Space Port America in New Mex- U.S. Defence Information Systems Agency ico, U.S. The self-propelled 90 Kg winged (DISA) Director Mr Bruce Bennett announced vehicle was launched on a vertical ramp pro- that DISA had plans to lease the Netted Irid- vided by UP Aerospace of Denver and it ium Service on behalf of the U.S. Navy. This reached the altitude of 915 metres. The test service would allow ground military operators was the third since 2007 and the second suc- in Afghanistan not only to communicate from cessful. The vehicle is considered a demon- point to point as before, but also to transmit stration of an advanced reusable launcher, voice and data broadcasts to several recipi- under the U.S. Department of Defence Op- ents simultaneously and at much faster erationally Responsive Space concept. Fur- speeds. Netted Iridium is a retooled variant ther details on its development were re- of the standard Iridium service using special stricted446. radios built by NexGen Communications LLC of Dulles, an ITT subsidiary. DISA spent ap- On 19 December 2009 U.S. President B. proximately $70 million in 2009 acquiring Obama signed the 2010 Defence Appropria- bandwidth for military purposes on the 66 tions Act that included funding for military LEO satellite constellation owned by Maryland space programmes. This Bill, approved by based Iridium Communications. This figure Congress, called for the formulation of a was expected to rise to $80 million in 2010. long-term space investment strategy through The Netted Iridium Service became the U.S. 2025, which should be delivered to its de- Navy’s only option for obtaining narrow-band fence committees by 1 May 2010. Accompa- communications capacity after continued nying documents of the legislation particu- delays in the development of its new genera- larly demanded that the U.S. maintains a tion communications satellites, known as the robust space launch capability, by ensuring Mobile User Objective System (MUOS)449. the Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicle’s (EELV) utilisation through 2030. This effort In the same interview, DISA’s Director an- would also include the development of a nounced that his agency had spent over $400 common upper stage for both of EELV’s vari- million to acquire commercial satellite com- ants, notable the Delta 4 and Atlas 5 rockets. munications services in 2009, $50 million Other major space programmes that secured more than the year before. In fact he admit- funding were the civil-military National Polar- ted that commercial operators contribute the orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite bulk of U.S. Armed Forces satellite connec- System (NPOESS) and USAF’s Third Genera- tivity world-wide. In the mean time satellite tion Infrared Surveillance system. On the operators increasingly deploy Ka- and X-band contrary, the Bill did not foresee budgeting of capacity to complement their standard Ku- the seventh Wideband Global Satcom com- band transponders and DISA is expected to munications satellite447. triple its demand of X-band capacity in 2010. Finally, DISA Director announced the imple- On 29 December 2009 the U.S. National Geo- mentation of a new contracting vehicle for spatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA) awarded communications satellite capacity called the Future Comsatcom Services Acquisition. Un- 444 Ibid. der this new contracting scheme, DISA would 445 See below. 446 “Lockheed Martin Launches Secret Rocketplane Prototype“. Space News 19 Oct. 2009: 8. 448 Brinton, Turner. “NGA Awards Three Contracts for 447 Brinton, Turner. “Defence Spending Act Pushes Radar Satellite Data“. Space News 4 Jan. 2010: 5. Smarter Investments in Space”. Space News 4 Jan. 2010: 449 Brinton, Turner. “U.S. Navy To Rely on Netted Iridium 4. Service as Gap-Filler“. Space News 11 Jan. 2010: 16.
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be able to acquire bandwidth directly from On 26 January 2010, the U.S. Defence De- commercial operators, without having to pass partment announced that a consortium led by through intermediate private companies, as it satellite operator Intelsat had secured a five is the case today450. year $542.7 million contract to provide end- to-end satellite communication services to At the same time, back in the United States the U.S, Navy. The project, known as Com- commercial satcom operators were asking of mercial Broadband Satellite Program (CBSP) the Defence Department to adopt a more called for the procurement of 449 megahertz comprehensive and long term approach in of Ku-band, 329 megahertz of C-band and 82 commercial bandwidth acquisition. At present megahertz of X-band capacity, which should the Pentagon is funding these acquisitions, be accessible to 95% of the Earth’s populated which account for nearly 80% of its global regions. For that reason, the consortium in- satellite connectivity demand, through sup- cluded no less than 17 companies (including plemental war funds that are approved by major providers such as SES), in order to Congress on an annual basis along with each achieve constant global coverage. Intelsat’s year’s defence budget. This would mean that proposal included as many as 20 satellites no long term acquisition planning would be and 8 teleports. This contract is expected to possible under the current purchasing replace the U.S. navy’s existing one for the scheme. To complicate things further, sup- procurement of L-band mobile services from plemental war funding, which represents Inmarsat of London453. roughly 20% of U.S. defence spending, is expected to be curtailed over the next few The U.S. Missile Defence Agency (MDA) suc- years. cessfully launched two new generation Space Tracking and Surveillance System (STSS) At the same time, USAF’s plans to develop its demonstration satellites on 25 September next generation military communications 2009. The spacecrafts included considerable satellite were set back by the cancellation of improvements form previous systems, includ- the Transformational Satellite system in ing the capability to track cold bodies in 2009. In response to this situation, commer- space for the first time. However, their initial cial operators have asked in January 2010 for testing period run into serious delays due to the creation of a dedicated regular line in the numerous technical problems. In fact, offi- U.S. defence budget to cover satcom services cials of Northrop Grumman Aerospace Sys- procurement on a longer term and not on the tems of Los Angeles, the satellites’ manufac- current year to year basis. Such a decision, turer, confirmed only on 21 January 2010 they said, would enable them to make the that the system’s testing and sensor calibra- necessary investments to respond to the tion had resumed. By then, the entire pro- Pentagon’s growing commercial satcom use, gramme came under scrutiny by the Con- as well to offer services that are more gress for budget overruns and poor pro- adapted to specific military needs. However, gramme management, which resulted in the according to industry officials the problem curtailing of several scheduled tests of the remained that commercial capacity demand system. As a result, MDA’s medium term was highly unpredictable, as it depended Integrated Master Test Plan that was com- mostly upon unforeseen geopolitical events pleted in mid-2010 did not include even a and contingent operations451. single test related to STSS. It should be On 13 January 2010, the California based noted that although MDA estimated the pro- telecommunications company Cisco an- gramme’s total cost since 2002 at $1.35 bil- nounced it had completed a successful in- lion, the U.S. Government Accountability orbit test of its space internet router compo- Office (GAO) raised it in its own project as- nent onboard Intelsat’s IS-14 satellite. The sessment to $ 3.1 billion. According to MDA router was part of the U.S. Defence Depart- sources, development of an operational ver- ment’s technology demonstration project on sion of the system would not begin before the Internet Routing in Space (IRIS). Although completion of current demonstrator testing454. the Pentagon was funding the experiment, On 1 February 2010 the U.S. Air Force an- the router itself was owned by Cisco, which nounced its budget appropriation request for planned on commercialising the devise im- 2011. Although the overall USAF budget re- mediately after the conclusion of its testing quest was up 3% from 2010 (at $170.8 bil- period in April 2010452. lion), space procurement and development expenses were curtailed by more than 8% (to approximately $8 billion). This development
450 Ibid. 451 Brinton, Turner. “Pentagon Urged To Budget for Com- 453 Brinton, Turner. ”Intelsat Nabs Big U.S. Navy Satcom mercial Satcom“. Space News 11 Jan. 2010: 17. Contract”. Space News 1 Feb. 2010: 6. 452 “Cisco Completes Test of Orbiting Internet Router”. 454 Brinton, Turner. “Testing Plans Uncertain for Missile Space News 18 Jan. 2010: 9. Tracking Satellites”. Space News 1 Feb. 2010: 12.
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ended the upward trend in USAF space activi- 2009 of the more capable ballistic missile ties spending over the last few years. In fact, interceptors that would be installed in Poland. the proposed budget focuses on capitalising At a later stage, the new planning also calls on the operational use of existing space sys- for the development of a land based version tems and foresees only limited funding for of SM-3 (with an initial $281 million budget new development projects. Even transforma- for 2011). Furthermore, the new doctrine tion programmes that were given priority calls for longer development and operational until now, such as these run by USAF’s Op- evaluation periods for the new ABM systems, erational Responsive Space (ORS) Office for as well as for increased international coop- example, suffered budget cuts. The dispro- eration in this field. This new policy document portionate decrease in defence space appro- also gives considerable attention to develop- priations was attributed by government offi- ing new ballistic missile warning sensors, cials to the general trend of limiting R&D both airborne and in space. The space com- spending in the 2011 defence budget. Since ponent under development is known as the R&D related expenses are proportionately Precision Tracking Space System, for which higher in space activities than in other USAF MDA has requested $67 million. The pro- programmes, the same officials claimed, the gramme should benefit from initial work done resulting budget cuts were also greater. over the Space Tracking and Surveillance Among the most important defence budget System demonstration satellites, three of cuts, one can single out the termination of which are in orbit since 2009. In an effort to the $26 billion Transformational Satellite limit development costs and streamline the communications system, the scaling down of required system tests, MDA has thoroughly the Third Generation Infrared Surveillance reviewed its testing programme in late 2009 (TGIRS) programme and the 25% decrease and it has requested increased funding for in funding for ORS projects ($94 million in such activities in 2011 ($1.11 billion com- 2011 from %124.3 million in 2010)455. pared to $823.3 million in 2010). Finally, funding for the development of the experi- As it seems, operational programmes already mental high-power chemical Airborne Laser is in use or in their final development stages terminated. The budget only foresees $99 represent the bulk of the requested appro- million for the transformation of the system priations. These include $426.5 million for into a ground based test bed for directed space situational awareness projects ($188.1 energy weapons457. million more than in 2010) and the purchase of additional spacecraft for a number of USAF In the U.S., the Department of Defence dis- programmes, like the fourth SBRS satellite, closed that it was experiencing mounting the seventh Wideband Global Satcom and the problems related to poor hardware manufac- fifth Mobile User Objective System narrow- turing and quality control. Space and missile band communications one. The USAF space defence programmes in particular suffered surveillance system stands out among the from repeated delays and failures caused by programmes with the greatest increase in deficient components. For example, a failed spending. Funds are mostly diverted to up- Missile Defence Agency (MDA) test of the grading the system’s ground-based radar Ground-based Midcourse Defence system on network known as Space Fence, as well as 31 January 2010 may have been caused by developing follow-on to the Space Based faulty components. In February, Pentagon Space Surveillance satellite due for launch in officials confirmed that USAF increasingly June 2010456. discovers hardware and software flaws in satellite and launcher components during At the same time the Obama administration their final assembly and testing. According to requested on behalf of the U.S. Missile De- the same sources, deficient parts included fence Agency (MDA) $8.4 billion for Ballistic crucial pieces of hardware, such as gyroscope Missile Defence (BMD) in 2011, representing and reaction wheels on satellites. These a $500 million increase from the previous manufacturing flaws were attributed by gov- year. The planned budget was heavily influ- ernment officials to the retirement of older enced by the new BMD posture announced on generations of space industry skilled workers 1 February 2010 through the Ballistic Missile and the low rate of their replacement. At the Defence Review Report published by the Pen- end of this process, the U.S. space industry tagon. This new BMD orientation adheres to could be facing a permanent loss of space the deployment of SM-3 interceptor equipped systems manufacturing know-how. On the warships in European waters, in order to other hand, this situation could partially ex- compensate for the cancellation in September plain the resistance that the new US space
455 Brinton, Turner. “U.S. Air Force Scales Back Missile Warning Technology Program“. Space News 8 Feb. 2010: 457 Brinton, Turner. “MDA Budget Request Reflects New 12. European Strategy, More Emphasis on Testing“. Space 456 Ibid. News 8 Feb. 2010: 12.
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policy has met within certain department of experimental operationally responsive satel- Defence circles458. lite launched in May 2009. In spite of the programme’s proclaimed success, the ques- On 11 February 2010 the U.S. Missile De- tion of its exact cost remains pertinent, as fence Agency (MDA) announced a successful the affordability of the satellites used is un- test of the Airborne Laser system. A Boeing doubtedly one of the most crucial parameters 747 aircraft carrying a high power chemical of the ORS concept460. laser tracked down and destroyed its in- tended target, a short-range liquid-fuelled Although the budget for science and technol- ballistic missile. However, in a second test ogy development programmes at the U.S. later the same day the weapon malfunctioned National Reconnaissance Office (NRO) was and failed to destroy a sounding rocket that cut off half during the last five years, it in- simulated a solid-fuelled ballistic missile. tends to reverse the trend and come to the Nevertheless, MDA qualified the test as a historical budget amount, according to NRO success, since ABL had reportedly achieved Director Bruce Carlson. Due to the classified to intercept a similar solid-fuelled target in a character of the NRO's budget he didn't dis- separate test on 3 February. In spite of its close any concrete figures on his speech of success as a system demonstrator, ABL has 14 April 2010. Nevertheless, the NRO will been deemed as an operationally non-viable conduct its most aggressive launch campaign and logistically expensive weapons platform. of the last 25 years until late 2011461. Therefore, MDA had apparently decided to Finally on 22 April 2010 USAF launched the terminate all funding for the programme in X-37B Orbital Test Vehicle, a winged un- 2011 and to invest in other directed-energy manned spaceplane demonstrator. The vehi- technology research projects. As for ABL it- cle was expected to perform evaluation ma- self, it would be transferred to the Pentagon’s noeuvres for as long as nine months, before Office of Defence Research to serve as a test re-entering the atmosphere and landing as a bed for laser technologies459. conventional airplane. The 8.9 metres long On 17 February, the satellite platform for spacecraft built by Boeing’s Phantom Works USAF’s first non experimental operationally of California was lifted in its maiden flight by responsive satellite was delivered by ATK an Atlas 5 rocket. It has a cargo bay similar Space Systems of Maryland. The spacecraft, to the space shuttle but of smaller dimen- known as ORS-1, was built in 16 months and sions, capable nevertheless of accommodat- it was transported to Goodrich ISR Systems ing two small satellites. USAF hopes that of Connecticut, the programme’s prime con- when the spacecraft becomes operational it tractor, where the integration of its Earth will add a quick and affordable satellite observation payload would take place. Its launch capability to its inventory. The pro- launch was scheduled for the second half of gramme was originally started by NASA in 2010. ORS-1 is the first operational satellite 1999, before it was passed on to DARPA in developed under the Operationally Respon- 2004 and finally to USAF’s Rapid Capabilities sive Space (ORS) concept, a USAF project Office, which currently has overall supervision aimed at developing small satellites cheaper, of the project. A second test flight was faster and ready to launch on demand. The scheduled for 2011462. programme’s objective is to achieve a quick launch capability for Earth observation satel- lites, as a response to urgent intelligence demands from units engaged in military op- 6.4 Russia erations. Although the satellite’s exact cost had not been disclosed, government official’s The Russian military space programme re- confirmed that the project had met its budget mains highly classified and all available open and timetable objectives. ATK announced source information regarding it is scarce. that the platform’s cost was approximately Consequently any attempt to analyse it $34 million, whereas the Pentagon’s Opera- should be considered by definition only in- tionally Responsive Space Office, which is the dicative. Nevertheless, the available informa- programme’s contracting authority, had pre- tion does permit us to draw some conclusions viously announced that the total budget could on its overall nature and strategic orientation. reach as high as $162 million. The satellite bus of ORS-1 was based on the one manufac- tured by ATK for TacSat-3, Pentagon’s latest 460 Brinton, Turner. “First Operational ORS Satellite Read- ied for Payload Integration“. Space News 22 Feb. 2010: 13. 458 Brinton, Turner. “Parts Problems Still Plaguing U.S. 461 Brinton, Turner. “NRO Chief Aims To Restore Space and Missile Hardware”. Space News 15 Feb. 2010: Technology Development Funding.” Space News 19 Apr. 12. 2010: 7. 459 Brinton, Turner. “Airborne Laser Goes Two for Three in 462Brinton, Turner. “U.S. Air Force Official Touts Space 1st Intercept Tests“. Space News 15 Feb. 2010:14. Plane Applications“. Space News 26 Apr. 2010: 11.
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The basic lines of the Russian military space improving the Russian fleet’s homogeneity. It strategic plan follow in broad terms the orien- also encompasses the new dual-use oriented tation of its civil space programme. These are approach in space systems’ development, as the following: to re-establish Russia as a it would not only greatly improve the coun- major military space power on a global scale, try’s capacity to lift military payloads, but it is limiting its capabilities gap with the U.S.; to also expected to have a broader commercial revitalise the country’s space industrial base launch services use as well. The rocket was in order to make it competitive on an interna- planned to use the Plesetsk space centre tional level and even export-oriented; and to instead of the Baikonur Cosmodrome in an use space related technologies’ research and attempt to reduce Russian space transport development as a pivotal point for the overall dependence on third countries and its first growth of the Russian scientific research and launch was expected in 2011. However, the economy, especially in the field of electron- vehicle’s debut could be postponed for a year ics463. In spite of its long military space tradi- due to a cut in its 2009 budget expenses that tion, the Russian military space programme were allocated to the construction of addi- has been increasingly utilising dual-use sys- tional launching facilities at Plesetsk. Finally, tems, marking a possible change in its oper- in a related development the Khrunichev ating concept. For example, one should not State Research and Production Space Centre forget that the Glonass satellite navigation that manufactures the launcher announced it constellation was initially meant to be a mili- had requested additional funds of 10 billion tary system, whereas today the Russian au- Rubbles ($290 million) over the next three thorities put more emphasis to its commercial years in order to complete the project466. use as well. As another example, Russian Finally, in 2009 and 2010 the Russian armed officials announced on 15 April 2010 that forces have continued to develop the coun- they were developing a meteorological satel- try’s Earth-based counter space capabilities lite scheduled for launch in 2011, disclosing under their long-term air defence modernisa- at the same time that it would also be of tion programme. This project, which treats military use, as it would be capable of detect- air and space as an operating continuum for ing submarines as well464. the purposes of air defence, aims at creating Nevertheless, the Glonass satellite navigation an integrated weapons system consisting of constellation remains a militarily crucial space ground-to-air missile systems with anti- asset and its expected full operational de- aircraft and anti-missile capabilities, as well ployment by the end of this year should be as modernised MIG-31 supersonic intercep- considered a major evolution step for the tors467. In addition to these, the system is Russian military space capabilities. Apart expected to include some kind of Earth-based from this project, the Russian armed forces anti-satellite (ASAT) capability as well, al- proceeded to the launch of at least two publi- though this has not been officially confirmed. cised military satellite launches in the past 12 Nevertheless, there have been official state- months, the mission of which was kept classi- ments to the effect that the Russian armed fied. In total, Russian military authorities forces are in fact developing a new type of publicly admit to operate a fleet of over 60 ASAT based on what was described as a spacecraft dedicated to military missions, the “fundamentally new weapon [technology]”468. bulk of which is used for Earth observation At the same time however, the Russian gov- purposes465. ernment also declared that it was continuing to oppose the development of co-orbital In addition to this, another system of inher- ASATs or any other form of space weaponisa- ent dual-use nature that should greatly up- tion, insisting that any such future systems grade Russian military space capabilities is would be exclusively Earth-based469. the development of the Angara heavy launcher, capable of lifting up to 24.5 tons into orbit. The rocket is scheduled to replace both the Rockot and Proton vehicles, thus 466 “Russian Military Lays Hope on New Angara Carrier Rockets”. 15 Jan. 2010. RIANovosti 30 May 2010
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6.5 Japan expected average spending of ¥60 billion annually through 2014471. The Japanese national security strategy is The flight testing of the Quasi-Zenith Satellite evolving rapidly since the creation of a De- System (QZSS) is also expected to begin in fence Ministry in 2007 and space systems the summer of 2010 with the launch of the have a pivotal role in this transformation programme’s first demonstrator spacecraft, process. Japan is bound by its Constitution to QZS-1 (nicknamed “Michibiki”). Upon the pursuit only the “peaceful” use of space. successful conclusion of the testing schedule, Nevertheless, the country is now in the mid- QZS-1 should be joined by two more satel- dle of a policy shift that seeks to define lites to form the system’s complete opera- “peaceful” not as “non-military”, as it was the tional constellation. It should be noted that case until now, but as “non-aggressive”. This QZSS is not indented to be an autonomous will enable the regularisation of the use of satellite navigation system; its mission would dual-purpose satellites by Japan’s armed rather be to enhance the accuracy and re- forces and it will reinforce the cooperation dundancy of the GPS signal over Japan. Nev- between the country’s space agency JAXA ertheless, from a technological point of view and the Ministry of Defence. The further de- QZSS’s development will greatly enhance velopment of space systems for national se- Japanese know-how on building such sys- curity purposes is one of the pillars of the tems, possibly allowing it to pursuit the de- new Japanese security strategy published in velopment of its own independent system in August 2009. The defence against ballistic the future472. missile attacks and the improvement of the country’s intelligence gathering apparatus In general, Japan’s ambitions in developing a through the use of Earth observation satel- full range space security apparatus are ade- lites are among the conditions identified as quately backed by sufficient budget re- crucial for the realisation of the new strat- sources. Out of the ¥348.8 billion reserved egy470. for space activities in the 2009 budget, ¥213billion (or almost 40% of the total) was For that purpose, Japanese space activities related to dual-use space applications. The have been increasingly focusing on the de- IGS programme received the most funding velopment of their space applications seg- (¥66 billion), followed closely by BMD related ment. Japan is actively pursuing the devel- systems (¥58 billion), QZSS (¥14 billion) and opment of dual-use space assets across all GX rocket development (¥11 billion)473. The fields of applications. These include a new latter’s development was however cancelled generation of Information Gathering Satel- on 16 December 2009 by the Japanese gov- lites (IGS) with greatly improved ground ernment, due to its continued budget over- resolution, a satellite positioning system of rides and unsure commercial prospects474. It regional coverage known as the Quasi-Zenith is highly likely that Japan’s early warning Satellite System (QZSS), an early warning satellite programme, which appears to be the system to cooperate with its ballistic missile nation’s next priority in military space capa- defences and a space situational awareness bilities development, would be funded from system similar to the one currently used by the BMD related budget line. the U.S. The IGS programme is the most mature of these projects, both technologically and op- erationally. Japan currently operates four of these spacecraft, two equipped with optical 471 Sawako, Maeda. “Transformation of Japanese Space and two with radar Earth observation aper- Policy: From the ‘Peaceful Use of Space’ to ‘The Basic tures. Although their constellation was only Law on Space’”. The Asia-Pacific Journal: Japan Focus completed in 2007, a new generation of im- Vol. 44-1-09 2 Nov. 2009. 30 May 2010 proved IGS spacecrafts is at the final stages
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6.6 China Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) V.K. Saraswat disclosed that his country had begun development of an Anti- As it is the case with Russia, the Chinese Satellite weapon system (ASAT). Mr. Saras- military space programme is also classified. wat said that the system had just entered its Very little and always unofficial information initial development phase and that it would exits the country regarding these projects. not be made operational unless his country What it should be noted is that the Chinese decided that it “needed” it. He predicted that military space programme also evolves the ASAT would consist of two components, a around a dual-use concept. This means that laser used for tracking targets and a direct all space assets are conceived from their very ascent interceptor missile of a 120–140 km beginning as military use compatible. These range, equipped with an exoatmospheric include the country’s communications satel- direct impact kill vehicle. Initial testing of the lites and the Beidou satellite navigation sys- missile was expected to begin in September tem, which will emit a government-only sig- 2010, while the full system should be devel- nal alongside its commercial one. However, oped by 2014477 the great difference with other space-faring powers is that the Chinese dual-use space assets are mostly run directly or indirectly by the Chinese Army, due to that country’s unique political and administrative structure. The Shenzhou manned spaceflight and the Long march launcher programmes are among the most significant examples. The Shenzhou manned spacecraft pro- gramme, also known as Project 921, did not see any significant changes in the past 12 months. After the spacecraft’s successful 3rd flight in the September of 2008, the pro- gramme’s focus has shifted to improving Extra Vehicular Activities know-how and test- ing in-orbit docking technologies for use in the future Chinese space station. This seems to be the next step in the Chinese human space flight programme. CAST has already three space docking stations under construc- tion, with the first (Tiangong-1, meaning a palace in Heaven in Chinese) scheduled for launch in 2011475. The next two space sta- tions are scheduled for launch before 2015. Each one will have an expected life span of only two years. They should be primarily used to demonstrate docking technologies, in cooperation with the three Shenzhou space craft also scheduled for the same period476.
6.7 India
India does not have a dedicated military space programme. However, future dual use satellites will have an inherent military utility and ISRO does not place any restrictions on their use. Nevertheless, an important new dimension for the country’s nascent military space capabilities emerged earlier this year. During a press conference on 3 January 2010, the Director-General of India’s Defence
475 “China to Launch Module for Future Space Station in 2011”. 3 Mar. 2010. RIANovosti 30 May 2010
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7. The Specific Role of Institutions
Institutions play an important role in space activities worldwide, both regionally and in- European Commission ternationally. Although their specific space The European Commission is the executive related programmes and policies were al- body of the EU, representing its supranational ready presented in chapter 3 of this report, it dimension. It has a central role in managing is considered useful to give an overview of Galileo and GMES, the EU flagship space pro- their activities on space issues in the follow- grammes, for which it acts as the administra- ing chapter as well. tive and finance body. In the period covered in the report these two projects entered the phase of operational development as de- 7.1 Europe scribed in chapter 3. Furthermore it oversees the settlement of a number of politically sen- sitive regulatory issues concerning their fu- Not only within Europe, the European Union ture use, such as their data distribution pol- has emerged in recent years as an important icy. In order to fulfil this task the European actor in space activities. Through its flagship Commission works in close relationship with programmes of Galileo and GMES the EU has the European Space Agency (ESA), which it de facto positioned itself as a major space- mandated to act as the concept development faring power, in close cooperation with its and industrial contracting authority for these member-states governments. In this aspect it programmes. However, in addition to the is significant to note that the EU is the only research and development work done by ESA supranational entity with such an important the European Commission itself simultane- presence in space activities worldwide, a fact ously promotes R&D as well on these projects that sets it apart from the rest of the major through its FP7 technology development pro- space actors. Being the only non-national gramme. This is an open tender programme space power, the EU has been obliged to set addressed to European industries that wish to new norms and paradigms in formulating conduct R&D on six identified work areas: space policies and implementing space assets system support, ground mission segment, procurement programmes on behalf of its ground control segment, space segment, member states. So far, this has been a very launching services and operations. dynamic, interactive and innovative process that has produced significant breakthroughs and revolutionised the way space activities European Union Agencies are managed. EU space policies are formu- Apart from the central role of the European lated and implemented by both its member Commission, a number of European agencies states and its various institutions that will be is also involved in the development of space briefly described below. applications services. These can be divided into two categories, those involved in devel- The Council of the European Union and its oping space systems and services on behalf Presidencies of all EU member states and those which are their end product users. The former are the The Presidency of the Council of the Euro- European Defence Agency (EDA), which is pean Union is an institution held by each of becoming increasingly involved in the devel- its member states’ governments successively opment and coordination of the military use for a period of six months. It has been in- of EU’ dual use space systems; the EU Satel- strumental in deciding and implementing the lite Centre (EUSC) responsible for the acqui- EU space policies by synthesising into a sition, process and distribution of satellite common EU policy the different views of its Earth observation products; and the Euro- member states on space activities. It has pean GNSS Supervisory Authority (GSA) re- specifically been important in prioritising sponsible for the system’s operational use. among different propositions and providing Among the latter are the European Maritime the necessary drive forwards to the European Safety Agency (EMSA), the European Aviation space policy. Safety Agency (EASA), the European Envi- ronmental Agency (EEA), or the European Agency for the Management of Operational
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Cooperation at the External Borders 7.2 United Nations (UN) Insti- (FRONTEX), which will be the EU space as- sets’ products users along with the individual tutions member states’ government authorities. Of course, as the systems’ prime users all of the Beyond the European frame, various institu- above agencies actively participate through tions within or associated with the United defining their operational requirements in the Nations are relevant for space policy. In this development of the space systems’ technical subchapter, the UN General Assembly specifications as well. (UNGA), UNGA Committees and other UN bodies and organs are discussed regarding European Parliament space activities. The European Parliament is another impor- tant entity of the European Union in space 7.2.1 United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) matters. It is the only body that is elected In December, the 64th session of the United directly. Through the co-decision procedure it Nations General Assembly (UNGA) was held. has the possibility to take political initiatives On 2 December 2009, it adopted the Resolu- together with the Council. With the latter, it tion 64/28 “Prevention of an arms race in also represents the budgetary authority of outer space”. In the resolution, the GA put the European Union. Various parliamentary emphasis on transparency and confidence committees like the Committee on Foreign building measures (TCBM) to avoid an arms Affairs (AFET) and its Subcommittee on Secu- race in space. TCBMs were seen to possibly rity and Defence (SEDE) also play an impor- form an integral part of broader agreements tant role regarding space matters. on the prevention of an arms race. The GA recalled that the existing legal framework for European Interparliamentary Space Conference outer space does not guarantee the preven- (EISC) tion of an arms race and asked the states, The European Interparliamentary Space Con- especially the major space faring nations, to ference (EISC) brings together members of negotiate further. The Conference on Disar- national parliaments that are interested in mament (CD) was seen as the sole multilat- space. It serves as a discussion platform for eral disarmament forum. The Resolution also debating issues in the domain of the Euro- called for establishing and Ad Hoc Committee pean Space Policy. Each year, it holds a con- on the Prevention of an Arms Race in outer ference organised by its rotating presidency space within the CD. In general, it also ac- in its home country. In 2009, the United knowledged the complementary nature of Kingdom held the Presidency. The 11th Euro- multilateral and bilateral efforts in this issue 478 pean Interparliamentary Space Conference area. took place in London on 26 and 27 October Also on 2 December 2009, the GA adopted 2009. Its conclusions put an emphasis on the Resolution 64/49 “Transparency and con- space as an instrument to deal with climate fidence-building measures in outer space change as well as a problem solver, on space activities”. The Resolution was identical to the as a tool for economic growth and prosperity one tabled in 2008. It stated that an arms and on shaping a regulatory framework for a race in space would constitute a significant competitive European space sector. danger to peace and security and it invited In January 2009, Romania took over the the Member States to continue submitting presidency of EISC with the theme “Space proposals on TCBM to the Secretary General. Benefits for Society”. As an intermediary step In addition, the GA decided to include the th 479 to the plenary conference of EISC in October, issue in the agenda of the 65 session. the Chairperson of EISC, Liana Dumitrescu A Resolution on “International cooperation in (Member of the Romanian Parliament and the peaceful uses of outer space” (64/86) Chairperson of its Subcommittee on Space), was adopted on 10 December 2009 by con- hosted on 17 May 2010 in Bucharest a work- sensus without a vote. The resolution re- shop for EISC delegations dealing with issues minded of all central aspects and challenges related to security and governance. Partici- of the peaceful use of outer space. It also pating were – besides the parlia-mentary recalled the crucial importance of interna- delegations - representatives of EC, ESA, tional cooperation to tackle the corresponding EUSC and space industry.
478 United Nations General Assembly. Resolution adopted by the General Assembly on 2 Dec. 2009. UN Doc. A/RES/64/28 of 12 Jan. 2010. United Nations. 479 United Nations General Assembly. Resolution adopted by the General Assembly on 2 Dec. 2009. UN Doc. A/RES/64/49 of 12 Jan. 2010. United Nations.
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issues and it reviewed some of the steps that Development Goals and should be consistent have been taken in this regard, like confer- with the peaceful use of outer space482. ences, sessions of relevant entities and pro- Also, a Symposium on National space legisla- gress in implementation of corresponding tion was held in Vienna during the 49th Ses- programmes.480 sion of the Legal Subcommittee. The topics discussed on this event were: needs for na- 7.2.2 UNGA Committees tional space legislation, elements of national space legislation as well as their conse- The UNGA disposes of several committees quences. that are involved in space policy and associ- ated matters. Some of them are discussed here. 7.2.3 Other UN Bodies Monitoring Space Activi- ties Disarmament and International Security Com- Beyond the UN General Assembly and its mittee Committees, there are other UN bodies and The resolutions on the prevention of an arms programmes related to space activities. In race in outer space and on transparency and the following, ITU (being a specialised agency confidence-building measures had been in- of the UN), UN-SPIDER; the UN Programme troduced in the Disarmament and Interna- on Space Applications, the International tional Security Committee, also referred to as Committee on Global Navigation Satellite the First Committee, beforehand. The de- Systems (ICG), the United Nations Spatial bates were marked by enduring differences Data Infrastructure (UNSDI), the Conference between the U.S. on the one hand and Russia on Disarmament (CD) and UNIDIR are dis- and China on the other hand. cussed. Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer International Telecommunication Union (ITU) Space (COPUOS) The International Telecommunication Union The activities of COPUOS were marked by its (ITU) held its World Radiocommunication plenary session and the sessions of its sub- Seminar (WRS) 2008 on 8 to 12 December committees, along with various workshops 2008 in Geneva. Among other things, it dis- and conferences. The Scientific and Technical cussed the application of the ITU Radio Regu- Subcommittee held its 47th session from 8 to lations that had been changed in the course 19 February 2010. Topics discussed included of the ITU World Radiocommunication Con- the use of nuclear power sources in outer ference (WRC) 2007. The meeting provided a space, possible dangers from near-Earth ob- forum to exchange views on the associated jects, space debris, space-based disaster technical, procedural and operational aspects. management support and developments in One of the relevant issues is given by the global navigation satellite systems. The Sub- revisions made to the Fixed-satellite service committee received and considered informa- plan that draws upon new technical develop- tion provided by the Member States on their ments and facilitates satellite system to ac- activities in all these fields. Moreover, the cess the frequency spectrum. The next World implementation of the recommendations of Radiocommunication Conference is scheduled 483 the Third United Nations Conference on the for 6 to 10 December 2010. Exploration and Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (UNISPACE III) were reviewed.481 UN-SPIDER A very important part of this session was the Several workshops and regional meetings topic “Long-term sustainablitity of outer were organised in the framework of the space activities”. The Subcommitte discussed United Nations Platform for Space-based In- space situational awareness and agreed to formation for Disaster Management and establish a working group on the long-term Emergency Response (UN-SPIDER). This plat- sustainability of outer space activties, prepar- form was set up by the UNGA in 2006 with ing a report and proposing measures and the aim of providing universal access to all guidelines. This should include its contribu- tion to the achievements of the Millenium 482 Ibid. 483 „ITU World Radiocommunication Seminar closes.“ 12 480 United Nations General Assembly. Resolution adopted December 2008. International Telecommunication Union. by the General Assembly on 10 Dec. 2009. UN Doc. 30 May 2010. A/RES/64/86 of 13 Jan. 2010. United Nations.
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types of space-based information and ser- meetings of ICG.”485 The next ICG meeting vices relevant to disaster management sup- will take place in Turin in October 2010. port. The International Charter on Space and Major United Nations Spatial Data Infrastructure Disasters was activated several times by the (UNSDI) Office of Outer Space Affairs (OOSA) at the The United Nations Geographic Information request of other UN entities. The concept Working Group (UNGIWG) held its tenth an- model for a UN-SPIDER knowledge portal was nual meeting in Bonn, Germany, on 19–21 developed further in cooperation with Ger- October 2009. The UNSDI is understood as a man institutional partners. comprehensive, decentralised geospatial in- formation network to facilitate decision- UN Programme on Space Applications (SAP) making.486 The UN Programme on Space Applications (SAP) is concerned with cooperation in space Conference on Disarmament (CD) science and technology. Several activities The Conference on Disarmament (CD) is the were carried out under its auspices in the only multilateral disarmament and arms con- reporting period which dealt with, for in- trol negotiating forum within the international stance, Technology Contribution to Infection community. It was in session from 11 June to Surveillance and to the Health-related MDG 2 September 2009 and from 19 January to 23 Goals, Basic Space Science and the Interna- March 2010. The stalemate in its work re- tional Heliophysical Year 2007, Integrated garding space security has been ongoing. In Space Technologies and Space-based infor- the course of the 2009 session, the preven- mation for Analysis and Prediction of Climate tion of an arms race in outer space was again Change, Space Law, Integrated Applications a central topic on the agenda.487 of Global Navigation Satellite Systems, and Integrated Space Technology Applications for United Nations Institute for Disarmament Re- Socioeconomic Benefits.484 search (UNIDIR) International Committee on Global Navigation Several projects of the United Nations Insti- Satellite Systems (ICG) tute for Disarmament Research (UNIDIR) deal with space security, directly or indirectly. The aim of the International Committee on Among other things, UNIDIR intends to re- Global Navigation Satellite Systems (ICG) is view former proposals and to propose new to promote cooperation in matters of satellite options for breaking the deadlock in space navigation. OOSA serves as the Executive weaponisation matters at the Conference on Secretariat of the ICG and the associated Disarmament (CD). Providers’ Forum. The fourth meeting of the ICG took place in Saint Petersburg, Russia, on 14–18 September 2009. It saw atten- dance from industry, governments, non- 7.3 Non-Governmental Or- governmental organisiations and academia ganisations (NGOs) and it reviewed and discussed developments in global navigation systems. International NGOs keep on playing a grow- The ICG work plan was organised in four ing role in matters of space policy. The func- working groups: on compatibility and inter- tions they provide include advocacy, inputs to operability, on enhancement of performances the main debates and organisation of events of GNSS services, on information dissemina- to share knowledge and to trigger discussion tion, capacity building, and on interaction among the actors engaged in space matters. with national and regional authorities and A number of international NGOs have the relevant international organisations. In the status of permanent observers at the United joint statement it was noted “that substantive progress had been made in furthering the 485 United Nations General Assembly. Committee on the workplans of ICG and the Providers’ Forum Peaceful Uses of Outer Space. Fourth Meeting of the that had been approved at the previous International Committee on Global Navigation Satellite Systems, held in Saint Petersburg, Russian Federation, from 14 to 18 Sep. 2009. UN Doc. A/AC.105/948 of 05 Nov. 2009. Vienna: United Nations. 486 „UNGIWG tenth meeting.” United Nations Geographic Information Working Group. 30 May 2010.
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Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of the Space Generation Advisory Council Outer Space (COPUOS), which constitutes a (SGAC), the World Space Week Association link to the official actors and delegations. (WSWA), the International Institute for Ap- plied System Analysis (IIASA), the Interna- These observers include the Association of tional Society for Photogrammetry and Re- Space Explorers (ASE), the International mote Sensing (ISPRS), the Prince Sultan Bin Academy of Astronautics (IAA), ESPI, Eurisy, Abdulaziz International Prize for Water the International Astronautical Federation (PSIPW).488 (IAF), the Secure World Foundation (SWF),
488 “United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs.” 30 May 2010.
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Acronyms
3DTV 3 Dimensions Television ABAE Agencia Bolivariana de Actividades Espaciales ACI Airports Council International ADF Australian Defence Force ADM Atmospheric Dynamics Mission AEB Agência Espacial Brasileira AEHF Advanced Extremely High Frequency AFET Committee on Foreign Affairs AFRL Air Force Research Laboratory AG Aktiengesellschaft AGILE Astrorivelatore Gamma ad Immagini ultra Leggero AIA Aerospace Industries Association AIS Automatic Identification System ANGELS Autonomous Nanosatellite Guardian for Evaluating Local Space AP-MCSTA Asia Pacific Multilateral Cooperation in Space Technology and Applications APRSAF Asia-Pacific Regional Space Agency Forum APSCO Asia-Pacific Space Cooperation Organisation ARMC African Resource Management and Environmental Constellation ARTES Advanced Research in Telecommunications Systems ASAT Anti Satellite ASC Army Space Council A-SCOPE Advanced Space Carbon and Climate Observation of Planet Earth ASE Association of Space Explorers ASI Agenzia Spaziale Italiana AT&T American Telephone and Telegraph Corporation Athena-Fidus Access on theatres for European allied forces nations-French Italian dual-use satellite ATV Automated Transfer Vehicle AVIC Aviation Industries of China BAE British Aerospace BGAN Broadband Global Area Network BLS Boeing Launch Services BNSC British National Space Centre CASA Construcciones Aeronáuticas Sociedad Anónima CASC China Aerospace Corporation CASIC China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation CASTC China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation CBERS China Brazil Earth Resources Satellites CCD Charged Coupled Device CD Conference on Disarmament CEV Centro Espacial Venezolano CFSP Common Foreign and Security Policy CGWIC China Great Wall Industry Corporation CIP Competitiveness and Innovation Framework Programme CMA China Meteorological Administration CMSEO China Manned Space Engineering Office CNES Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales CNNC China National Nuclear Corporation CNSA China National Space Administration COPUOS Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space CoReH2O Cold Regions Hydrology High-resolution Observatory COREPER Committee of Permanent Representatives COSMO- Constellation of small Satellites for the Mediterranean basin Observation Skymed
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COSTIND Commission for Science, Technology and Industry CSI Customer Service Improvement CSSC China State Shipbuilding Corporation DARPA Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency DARS Digital Audio Radio Satellite DBS Direct Broadcast Services DEM Digital Elevation Model DG Directorate General DISH Digital Sky Highway DLR Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt DMO Defence Material Organisation DMSP Defense Meteorological Satellite Program DOC Department of Commerce DoD Department of Defense DRC Democratic Republic of Congo DSTO Defence Science and Technology Organisation DTH Direct-to-Home EADS European Aeronautic Defence and Space Company EarthCARE Earth Clouds, Aerosol and Radiation Explorer EC European Commission ECA Evolution Cryotechnique Type A e-CORCE e-Constellation of Observation by Recurrent Cellular Environment EDA European Defence Agency EDEM European Defence Equipment Market EDRS European Data Relay Satellite EEA European Environment Agency EELV Evolved Expandable Launch Vehicle ELV Expandable Launch Vehicle EGNOS European Geostationary Navigation Overlay Service EIP Entrepreneurship and Innovation Programme EISC European Interparliamentary Space Conference ELINT Electronic signals Intelligence EMS Electromagnetic Sciences EMSA European Maritime Safety Agency EnMAP Environmental Mapping and Analysis Programme EOS Earth Observation System EPS EUMETSAT Polar System ESA European Space Agency ESDP European Security and Defence Policy ESOA European Satellite Operators Association ESP European Space Policy ESPI European Space Policy Institute EU European Union EUFOR European Union Force EUMETSAT European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites EUSC European Union Satellite Centre Eutelsat European Telecommunications Satellite Organisation EVA Extravehicular Activity FAA Federal Aviation Administration FAO Food and Agricultural Organisation FBI Federal Bureau of Investigations FCC Federal Communications Commission FED Federal Reserve System FLEX Fluorescence Explorer FP7 Framework Programme for research and technological development 7 FRONTEX European Agency for the Management of Operational Cooperation at the External Borders FSS Fixed Satellite Services FY Fiscal Year FY Feng Yung GAD General Armaments Department GCOM-W Global Change Observation Mission-Water GDP Gross Domestic Product GEO Geostationary Orbit
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GEOSS Global Earth Observation System of Systems GIS Geographic Information System GMES Global Monitoring for Environment and Security GNI Gross National Income GOCE Gravity field and steady-state Ocean Circulation Explorer GOES Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite GOSAT Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite GPS Global Positioning System GSA GNSS Supervisory Authority GSC Guyana Space Centre GSI Global Security Institute GSLV Geosynchronous Satellite Launch Vehicle GTO Geostationary Transfer Orbit HDTV High Definition Television HQ Headquarters HSPG High-Level Space Policy Group HTV H2A Transfer Vehicle HYLAS Highly Adaptable Satellite IAA International Academy of Astronautics IAEA International Atomic Energy Agency IAF International Astronautical Federation IATA International Air Transport Association IAU International Astronomical Union IBEX Interstellar Boundary Explorer IBMP Institute for Biomedical Problems ICBM Intercontinental Ballistic Missile ICG International Committee on Global Navigation Satellite Systems ICU Islamic Courts Union IEA International Energy Agency IGN Institut Géographique National IGS Integrated Geo Systems IIASA International Institute for Applied System Analysis ILS International Launch Services IMF International Monetary Fund IMO International Maritime Organisation IMS Indian Mini Satellite INKSNA Iran – North Korea – Syria Nonproliferation Act INPE Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPO Integrated Program Office IRNSS Indian Regional Navigational Satellite System ISAF International Security Assistance Force ISB Industry State Bank ISC International Space Company ISPRS International Society for Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing ISRO Indian Space Research Organisation ISS International Space Station ITAR International Traffic in Arms Regulations ITU International Telecommunication Union JAPCC Joint Air Power Competence Center JAXA Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency KARI Korea Aerospace Research Institute KHTT Know-How-Technology Training KSLV Korea Space Launch Vehicle LAMOST Large Sky Area Multi-Object Fibre Spectroscopic Telescope LCROSS Lunar Crater Observing and Sensing Satellite LEO Low Earth Orbit LISA Laser Interferometer Space Antenna LM Long March LMCLS Lockheed Martin Commercial Launch Services LRF Lloyd’s Register-Fairplay LRG Launch Risk Guarantee LRO Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter MAI Moscow Aviation Institute
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MASTIS Maritime Advanced SATCOM Terrestrial Infrastructure System MAVEN Mars Atmosphere and Volatile Evolution MDA MacDonald Dettwiler and Associates MDA Missile Defense Agency MEO Medium Earth Orbit METI Ministry of Economy, Industry and Trade MEXT Ministry of Education, Science and Technology MHI Mitsubishi Heavy Industries MHS Microwave Humidity Sounder MIC Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communication MLM Multipurpose Laboratory Module MoD Ministry of Defence MONUC Mission de l’Organisation des Nations Unies en République démocratique du Congo MoonLITE Moon Lightweight Interior and Telecom Experiment MoU Memorandum of Understanding MR Medium Resolution MRM Mini Research Module MSC Missile Systems Center MSG Meteosat Second Generation MSS Mobile Satellite Services MSV Mobile Satellite Ventures MTG Meteosat Third Generation MUOS Mobile User Objective System MUSIS Multinational Satellite-based Imagery System NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration NASDA National Development Space Agency of Japan NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organisation NDPG National Defence Program Guidelines NERC Natural Environment Research Council NEREUS Network of European Regions Using Space Technologies NFIRE Near Field Infrared Experiment NGA National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency NGDI National Geospatial Data Infrastructure NGO Non-governmental Organisation NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NPOSS National Polar-orbiting Operational Satellite System NPP NPOESS Preparatory Project NRO National Reconnaissance Office NSR Northern Sky Research NSSA National Security Space Authority OGDR Operational and Geophysical Data Record OHB Orbitale Hochtechnologie Bremen OOSA Office of Outer Space Affairs OPEC Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries ORFEO Optical and Radar Federated Earth Observation ORS Operationally Responsive Space OSTM Ocean Surface Topography Mission PFI Public Financing Initiative PICC People’s Insurance Company of China PLA People's Liberation Army PNAE Plano Nacional de Atividades Espaciais PND Portable Navigation Device POES Polar Operational Environment Satellites PPP Public Private Partnership PREMIER Process Exploration through Measurement of Infrared Emitted Radiation PRISMA Precursore Iperspettrale della Missione Applicativa PSIPW Prince Sultan Bin Abdulaziz International Prize for Water PSLV Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle R&D Research & Development RCA République Centrafricaine ROSA Radio Occultation Sounding for Atmosphere RSC Rocket and Space Corporation S&T Science and Technology
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SA Sociedad Anónima SAP Programme on Space Applications SAR Synthetic Aperture Radar SARA Sub-kev Atom Reflecting Analyser SBIRS Space Based Infrared System SBSS Space Based Surveillance System SC Security Council SDSTB State Defense Science and Technology Bureau SEDE Subcommittee on Security and Defence SES Société Européenne des Satellites SGAC Space Generation Advisory Council SHF Super High Frequency SHSP Strategic Headquarters for Space Policy SICRAL Sistema Italiano per Comunicazioni Riservate ed Allarmi SIGINT Signals Intelligence SIR-2 Spectrometer Infrared 2 SIRAL SAR/Interferometric Radar Altimeter SLA Service Level Agreement SMDC Space and Missile Defense Command SME Small and Medium Entreprises SMOS Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity SMP Systèmes Midi-Pyrénées SNC Sierra Nevada Corporation SPIDER Space-based Information for Disaster Management and Emergency Response SS2 Space Ship 2 SSA Space Situational Awareness SSC Swedish Space Corporation SSL Space Systems/Loral SSOT Sistema Satelital para Observacion de la Tierra SSTL Surrey Satellite Technology Ltd. STFC Science and Technology Facilities Council STSS Space Tracking Surveillance System SWF Secure World Foundation TCBM Transparency and Confidence Building Measures TEN Trans-European Networks TEN-T Trans-European Transport Networks TFG Transitional Federal Government THEO Thai Earth Observation System TRAQ Tropospheric composition and Air Quality TSAT Transformation Communications Satellite TSB Technology Strategy Board TV Television UAE United Arab Emirates UHF Ultra High Frequency UK United Kingdom ULA United Launch Alliances UN United Nations UNCCC United Nations Climate Change Conference UNEP United Nations Environment Programme UNESCO United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change UNGA United Nations General Assembly UNGIWG United Nations Geographic Information Working Group UNIDIR United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research UNISPACE United Nations Conference on the Exploration and Peaceful Uses of Outer Space UNSC United Nations Security Council UNSDI United Nations Spatial Data Infrastructure U.S. United States USAF United States Air Force
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USAT Ultra Small Aperture Terminals USN Universal Space Network VERTA Vega Research and Technology Accompaniment VHR Very High Resolution VSAT Very Small Aperture Terminals WEU Western European Union WFP World Food Programme WGS Wideband Global Satcom WHO World Health Organisation WK2 White Knight 2 WRC World Radiocommunication Conference WRS World Radiocommunication Seminar WSSD World Summit on Sustainable Development WSWA World Space Week Association XSS Experimental Spacecraft System
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Acknowledgements
The author would like to thank ESPI Research Interns Andreas Baur and Marcus Hornung for their invaluable help in compiling this report by performing preparatory analyses, collecting data and drafting contents. He would also like to extend his gratitude to ESPI Director Prof. Kai-Uwe Schrogl and ESPI docu- mentalist Blandina Baranes for their kind advice and assistance throughout the preparation of this report.
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Mission Statement of ESPI
The mission of the European Space Policy Institute (ESPI) is to provide decision-makers with an independent view and analysis on mid- to long-term issues relevant to the use of space.
Through its activities, ESPI contributes to facilitate the decision-making process, in- creases awareness of space technologies and applications with the user communities, opinion leaders and the public at large, and supports researchers and students in their space-related work.
To fulfil these objectives, the Institute supports a network of experts and centres of ex- cellence working with ESPI in-house analysts.
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