The Brazilian Demographic Transition: Features and Challenges André Portela Souza FGV/Brazil Berlin Demographic Forum March 19, 2015 The Demographic Transition in Brazil 1. Features A. Demographic dynamics B. Health transition C. Fertility decline D. Demographic Bonus 2. The Challeges Ahead A. Redefining the public transfers to old people B. Increase productivity i. Education ii. Immigration The Brazilian Demographic Transition FEATURES A. Demographic dynamics A. Demographic dynamics A. Demographic dynamics B. Health transition C. Fertility decline C. Fertility decline C. Fertility decline C. Health transition and fertility decline
Slower health transition and fertility decline
Faster health transition Faster health transition with slower fertility and fertility decline decline
Source: Growing old in an older Brazil : implications of population aging on growth, poverty, public finance and service delivery / Michele Gragnolati, et al. Washington D.C.: The World Bank, 2011. p. 3. D. Demographic bonus D. Demographic bonus Demographic bonus Demographic bonus Demographic bonus The Brazilian Demographic Transition
CHALLENGES Public and intergenerational transfers
Ratio of net per capita public transfers (elderly to children)
Fonte: Growing old in an older Brazil : implications of population aging on growth, poverty, public finance and service delivery / Michele Gragnolati, et al. Washington D.C.: The World Bank, 2011. p. 12. Public and intergenerational transfers
Public Transfers as a Percent of Total Consumption
Fonte: Growing old in an older Brazil : implications of population aging on growth, poverty, public finance and service delivery / Michele Gragnolati, et al. Washington D.C.: The World Bank, 2011. p. 12. Public and intergenerational transfers
Brazil: Expenditure per person by age group, 2006
Fonte: Growing old in an older Brazil : implications of population aging on growth, poverty, public finance and service delivery / Michele Gragnolati, et al. Washington D.C.: The World Bank, 2011. p. 12. productivity productivity Education Evolution of average schooling by birth cohort: Brazil g
n Born in i l 28 years
o 1952 in
o behind
h Chile Born in c s
1980 in e
g Brazil a r e v A
Birth year Economic development and international migration
International Migration to Brazil In 1900, Brazil has reached 7.3% of the population composed of immigrants, today it has just 0.3%.
Source: SAE Economic development and international migration
Age structure of immigrants in Brazil and in the World 5x Immigrants over Immigrants over 65 years of age Immigrants Latin America Region 65 years old as a percentage (millions) Average (millions) of the immigrant population 10x World 214 24,7 12 World Africa 19 0,8 4 Average Asia 61 6,3 10 Europe 70 9,7 14 North America 50 5,9 12 Latin Amerrica and 7 0,9 13 50x Caribbean Oceania 6 1,1 18 Brazil 0,6 0,2 36 North America and Oceania Average Fonte: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2009) e Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de DomicĂlios (PNAD, 2009).