csp world map of power stations The CSP boom has begun

Since the launch of the Desertec initiative, solar thermal If one considers the types of cur- electricity generation has become a major theme. As the rently under construction, things will not change much in the near future (fig. 2). Out of over 1,800 MW, near- ­­SUN & WIND ENERGY power station overview shows, CSP is ly 1,760 MW are parabolic trough power stations, which represent 97 % of the total capacity under con- a serious technology and an economic source of electricity. struction. In contrast to the existing power station stock, however, the tower technology has a consider- olar thermal electricity generation is an old ably lower percentage. At present, a capacity of 17 MW ­technology. The first experiments were conduc- is under construction, corresponding to a share of Sted as early as the 19th century. In the 1980s the 1 %. With 30 MW and about 1 MW, respectively, the first big CSP power stations were constructed in the Fresnel power stations and the dish/Stirling power USA. But now the CSP industry is really gaining stations lie at 2 % and under 1 %. ­momentum. If one looks further ahead, however, things begin to SUN & WIND ENERGY has located almost 150 sites change. Among those projects that are currently in the where CSP plants already exist, are under construction planning stage (Fig. 3), but that are not yet under con- or will be erected in the near future. These sites alone struction, the share of the parabolic trough power sta- will correspond to a capacity of 14,480 MW if all the tions drops to 66 %, corresponding to an additional ca- projects are realized. Whether, and how quickly, they pacity of 7,867 MW. There are two reasons for this devel- will be realized is still somewhat unclear. For many opment. Firstly, there are more tower power stations projects, no precise schedule is yet known because the among the projects in this development phase, with a approval procedures are still underway or the funding capacity of 1,603 MW (14 %). And secondly, dish/­ issue has not yet been finally settled. Apart from the Stirling systems suddenly advance to 2nd place with a projects that we have been able to localize in this over- planned additional capacity of 2,247 MW (19 %). With view, new ones are being initiated all the time. In the 134 MW (1 %), Fresnel power stations are way behind at diagrams published here and on the world map (pages present. However, there are declarations of intent in the 98 to 99), only those projects have been considered gigawatt range, which are not yet specific enough to be Parabolic trough and central that are at least in the planning stage in which the loca- considered in this overview, but which envision the con- receiver power plants are cur- tion of the power station has been specified. Pure dec- struction of Fresnel and tower power stations. Parabolic rently the most common CSP larations of intent from individual companies or coun- trough power stations have the advantage over the oth- facility type. Photo: paul-langrock.de tries have been omitted for the time being. er technologies of many years of experience with large- scale applications. Considering the potential invest- Parabolic troughs ments in the three-digit million range, a certain caution wherever you look regarding the more recent concepts is understandable. Another uncertainty is the planned addition of At present, power stations using linear parabolic dish/Stirling systems. The large additional capacity is troughs are the most established type, and with a ca- based almost exclusively on three big projects in the pacity of 767 MW, they account for about 94 % of the in- USA, all of which would be built by the American stalled CSP capacity (Fig. 1). Nearly all of these power Project Developer Tessera Solar. Hence, if just this one stations are located in the USA and Spain. The second company does not implement its projects according to place is currently held by the tower power stations, plan, almost the entire expansion in this segment will which have an installed capacity of 42.5 MW at present, have gone. There are also plans to build a few 10 MW thus representing a good 5 % of the total CSP capacity. units in Spain. If things go well here, this might Fresnel power stations (9.4 MW, 1 %) and a handful of ­provoke further investments. dish/Stirling systems take third and fourth places, the latter still remaining below the 1 % threshold.

94 Sun & Wind Energy 6/2010 In the end, the electricity generation costs will be the 1,65 9,4 decisive factor for the success of the different technolo- Fig.1: CSP plants in operation: 767,16 gies. And in this regard, things are difficult: on the one Tower Dish Fresnel 42,4 hand, predictions regarding technical progress are always 42.4 MW 1.65 MW 9.4 MW uncertain to some degree, and on the other hand, most companies are extremely reserved when it comes to stat- ing the electricity generation costs. Nevertheless, we are not left completely in the dark on this topic. The most pre- cise data on price development is available for parabolic trough power stations because there is more than 20 years’ experience of operating the SEGS I-IX power stations parabolic trough in the USA. The first 14 MW SEGS unit (year of construction 767,16 MW 1984) still produces electricity for 0.44 US$/kWh, where- as the last unit (80 MW, year of construction 1990) has achieved a little over 0.17 US$/kWh. Using the most ­advanced technology, trough power stations in solar-only In aggregate about 820 MW of CSP is operational. With 767 MW operation could be operated with electricity generation (94 %), parabolic trough plants are most common. Tower power costs of about 0.15 US$/kWh in the southwest of the USA. plants are second most used with 42.4 MW (5 %). Linear Fresnel In Spain, the costs are still higher. In a CSP report from technology is used for 9.4 MW (1 %) CSP capacity. With 1.65 MW, 2009, jointly published by Solar Paces and Greenpeace, solar dish technology is very rare. the costs are estimated to be 0.23 €/kWh, with a decreas- ing trend. The price difference is primarily due to the high- Fig. 2: CSP plants under construction: er global radiation in the southwest of the USA. Once Tower Dish Fresnel ­amortized – which can take 15 to 30 years, depending on 17 MW 1.01 MW 30 MW the funding – a power station at a favourable location ­produces at costs of 3 US$-ct/kWh, even cheaper than ­nuclear power.

Fresnel: simple design keeps the costs low parabolic trough Linear Fresnel power stations have the lowest efficiency of 1759,22 MW all the power station types, but they offer comparatively low installation costs. Although the technology is more ­recent and less widespread than parabolic trough power In sum, over 1.8 GW of CSP plants are under construction. Nearly stations, it can keep up with them in terms of electricity 1,760 MW (97 %) are parabolic trough power plants. Fresnel plants generation costs. In the case of the Fresnel collectors from increase their share to 2 % with 30 MW under construction. With the German power station manufacturer Novatec, the light 17 MW, the share of tower power plants drops to 1 %. Solar dish needs to be focussed less precisely than in the case of the plants are currently being built only in very small scale for research parabolic troughs. Due to a secondary reflector, the target and development. area for the solar rays is 30 cm wide, in contrast to only 7 cm in the case of a parabolic trough. The optical system Fig. 3:Planned CSP plants: is correspondingly simpler and Tower Dish Fresnel cheaper. Such 1,603 MW 2,247 MW 134 MW

parabolic trough 7,867 MW

Impressive 14.5 GW of CSP power plants are in an advanced plan- ning phase. 7.85 GW (66 %) of these are planned to be built with parabolic through technology. 2.25 GW or 19 % of CSP plants are planned to be built as solar dish power plants. 1.6 GW (14 %) of plants in an advanced development status are tower power plants. The share of Fresnel plants stays low with 134 MW (1 %). Source: own research

Sun & Wind Energy 6/2010 95 csp world map of power stations

projects can easily be realized on slightly uneven ter- so that the addition of new units can be more easily rain. In the power station PE 2 at Calasparra, Spain, the controlled. Another restriction is that the Spanish CSP collector rows are being installed on a site with an av- plants are limited to a size of 50 MW at most. At erage inclination of 3 %, and in places even up to 5 %. present, a capacity of just less than 380 MW is con- nected to the grid in Spain. More than 1,000 MW are Steam and salt in the tower under construction, and another 1,380 MW are in an advanced planning stage. Tower power stations can already achieve working tem- In the USA, things are very different. As for other peratures of 800 to 1,000 °C, which allows more effi- types of , there is no feed-in tariff for cient turbines to be operated. In the medium term it will solar thermal power stations. In many states, how­ probably be possible to reach even higher tempera- ever, the utility companies are obliged by a quota reg- tures. However, commercial power stations have used ulation to considerably cut the CO2 emissions of their lower temperatures so far. The 46 MW units of the US energy mix. Especially in the southwest, there is plen- company eSolar produce steam of 440 °C with a work- ty of direct solar irradiation, so that the first new pow- ing pressure of 63 bar at present. In contrast to the er stations are springing up here. In the 80s, as a con- Americans, the Spanish company Torresol does not use sequence of the oil crisis, the SEGS parabolic trough steam but molten salt instead. In order to use it to gen- power stations with more than 300 MW were connect- erate steam for the turbine, a heat exchanger is neces- ed to the grid in the Mojave Desert. When the oil crisis sary, but in turn, the salt can be transferred directly in- was over, the declining costs for conventional energy to a heat storage tank without a further exchanger. The sources stalled development for quite some time. In A linear Fresnel solar field: the Spanish can thus afford a 15 h full capacity tank at their 2007, Nevada Solar One was the first large new CSP simple design has potential to power station Gemasolar in , which is cur- plant to be connected to the grid. Due to the old SEGS keep the costs low. rently under construction. Despite a nominal capacity power stations, a capacity of 440 MW is now in opera- Photo: Novatec Biosol AG of just 17 MW, it is estimated that this power station tion in the USA, more than anywhere else in the world. will produce more than 100 GWh per A good 330 MW are under construction, which is con- year. For comparison:­ a 50 MW parabol- siderably less than in Spain. The long-term plans, how- Types of CSP ic trough ­power station in Spain with a ever, are much more ambitious: nearly 10,000 MW are 7.5 h salt storage tank supplies about in the planning stage. At present, there are four types of solar 150 to 160 GWh/a. Since no limit in size is specified in America, the thermal power stations. They all have in units here are also much bigger. Dozens of applica- common that the solar radiation is focussed Huge market in Spain tions for CSP plants ranging from 250 to 2,000 MW onto a receiver. Parabolic trough power sta- and the USA have been submitted to the Bureau of Land tions are the established standard. In this ­Management (BLM). In contrast to the 50 MW power type of power station, curved mirrors are A particularly high number of power stations in Spain, the American project developers can used to concentrate sunlight onto an stations are being built in Spain and the thus make use of scale effects in power station con- ­absorber tube mounted at the focal point. USA. Spain is the nucleus of the current struction. This, in combination with the higher global The mirrors track the sun on a single axis. CSP boom. In 2002, the Royal Decree irradiation, explains the substantially lower electricity The power stations achieve an annual 841 set the basis for the sector’s generation costs. ­average efficiency of 15 %. growth. At about 0.12 €/kWh, however, Solar Millennium, or rather its subsidiary stations on the basis of linear the feed-in tariff was still too low back Trust, is planning all its power stations in the USA in Fresnel collectors also concentrate the sun- then. After two increases (2004 and units of 242 MW. Depending on the project in ques- light onto absorber tubes mounted at the 2007; Royal Decree 661, specifying tion, two to four of these units will be built together. focal point. However, the mirrors are not 0.27 €/kWh), the rush got so big that in Plans for using heat storage tanks are rather rare in curved; instead, several flat mirrors per 2009 the government found it neces- the USA. Among the 10 GW that are envisioned, there ­absorber tube are used, which are arranged sary to pull the emergency brake. Since are only two power stations for which it is according to the Fresnel principle. Also in then, each power station for which the planned to build heat storage tanks. this case, the mirrors track the sun on a sin- feed-in tariff is to be paid has to be pre- One of them is the tower power gle axis. With 8 %, the efficiency of Fresnel registered (see SWE 11/2009, page 26) station Hualapai Valley power stations is lower than that of other technologies, but the total electricity gener- ation costs are said to be relatively low. In the case of tower power stations, the receiver, as the name suggests, is mounted on top of a tower. The solar radiation is fo- cussed onto the receiver by a large number of mirrors arranged around the tower. The last variant is that of a parabolic mirror combined with a Stirling motor. The motor is placed in the focus of a big, curved circular mirror that tracks the sun on two axes. These systems reach an efficiency level of around 27 %.

96 Sun & Wind Energy 6/2010 PV_ROME_EN_210x297 13-04-2010 14:24 Pagina 1 csp world map of power stations World map of solar thermal power stations 147 power stations in 14 countries Publisher: Sun & Wind Energy, www.sunwindenergy.com

Layout: Eilers-Media, www.eilers-media.de Date: May 2010 Sources: Manufacturers´ information, own research Legend operational construction planing phase

Tower

Parabolic Jülich Power Tower 1.5 MW Fresnel EuroDish Eibelstadt Dish& Sterling 0.01 MW EuroDish Themis 1.4 MW Odeillo 0.01 MW Alba Nova 34 MW Yulin Alternative Cameo coal-fired Termosolar Energy Park hybrid project 4 MW Borges 25 MW Archimede 92 MW 4.72 MW Santa Teresa New Mexico Sun Tower 92 MW SEDC 5 MW Hassi R'Mel Western Ranch Solar 27 MW ISCC Thermosolar Moroco 20 MW Shiraz Solar Thermal Martin Next Generation 20 MW Kuraymat JOAN1 Power Plant 0.5 MW Energy Centre 75 MW 20 MW 100 MW

Holaniku at Keahole Point 2 MW Shams One Westside solar project 10 MW 80 MW

EuroDish Vellore 0.01 MW

Solar Electric Generation Station(SEGS I-IV) 350 MW Ivanpah I 126 MW Ivanpah II 133 MW Mojave Solar Park 553 MW Ivanpah III 133 MW Central Solar Termo- La Florida 50 MW Coyote Springs 1 eléctrica Cáceres 50 MW Majadas 50 MW La Risca 50 MW 200 MW Crescent Dunes Solar Energy Project 100 MW Solaben 1-3+6 Titan Tracker 0.02 MW Lidell Solar Amargosa Farm Road Energy Project 484 MW Coyote Springs 2 4 50 MW Manchasol 1 50 MW Thermal Station 200 MW San Joaquin Solar 1+2 Termosol II 50 MW Serrezuela Manchasol 2 50 MW 3 MW 2x53,4 MW Palmdale Hybrid Termosol I 50 MW Solar II ASTE 1-4 4x50 MW Gaskell Sun Power Project Nevada La Dehesa 50 MW 50 MW Helios I+II 2x50 MW Tower II 140 MW 62 MW Solar One Astexol 1 50 MW Almadén 20 MW C. Solar Ridgecrest Solar 75 MW Hualapai valley Termoeléctrica Enerstar Gaskell Sun Tower I 105 MW Astexol 2 50 MW Pl. Termosolar 5x10 MW Power Project solar project 340 MW Olivenza 1 50 MW Pl. Termosolar 12 MW Villena 50 MW 242 MW Casa- Beacon Solar Energy Project 250 MW Badajoz 2 50 MW blanca Pl. Termosolar 8 MW PE1 1.4 MW Kingman project 200 MW Puertollano 50 MW Kimberlina Solar Extresol 1 50 MW 50 MW Thermal Plant 5 MW Casa del Ángel PE2 30 MW Calico Solar Ft. Irwin Solar Power Project 980 MW Extresol 2 50 MW Extremasol 1 Thermosolar 0,99 MW Alpine Sun Tower 92 MW 850 MW SkyThrough demonstration 43 MW Extresol 3 50 MW 50 MW Solacor 1+2 2x50 MW Sierra Sun Tower 5 MW Torrefresneda 50 MW Planta Solar Termoelectrica 50 MW Victorville 2 Hybrid Power Project 50 MW Rice Solar Aguila 500 MW Santa Amalia 50 MW El Reboso II La Africana 50 MW Energy Project Valdetorres 50 MW 50 MW Palma del Rio 1+2 2x50 MW Mojave Solar 250 MW 150 MW Maricopa Solar Palen Solar Power Project 484 MW Plant 1.5 MW Solnova 4 50 MW Helio- Andasol 1+2 2x50 MW Sonoran Solar Solnova 1+3 2x50 MW Andasol 3 50 MW Genesis Solar Energy Project 250 MW Solnova 2+5 2x50 MW energy 1+2 Solar Two 750 MW Solana Energy Project 2x50 MW EuroDish Almeria I+II 0.02 MW 280 MW 375 MW Aznalcollar TH PS20 20 MW Solar Three 550 MW Saguaro Power PS10 11 MW Gemasolar/CTS Solar TRES 17 MW Big Horn 0.08 MW AZ20 20 MW 500 MW Plant 1.16 MW ESI 0.01 MW Morón 50 MW Blythe Solar Lebria 1 50 MW EuroDish Sevilla Areales PS 50 MW Power Project 968 MW Planta Termosolar de Morón 11 MW UA Tech Park thermal storage 0.01 MW Valle 1 50 MW El Reboso III 50 MW demonstration project 5 MW Valle 2 50 MW

98 Sun & Wind Energy 6/2010 World map of solar thermal power stations 147 power stations in 14 countries Publisher: Sun & Wind Energy, www.sunwindenergy.com

Layout: Eilers-Media, www.eilers-media.de Date: May 2010 Sources: Manufacturers´ information, own research Legend operational construction planing phase

Tower

Parabolic Jülich Power Tower 1.5 MW Fresnel EuroDish Eibelstadt Dish& Sterling 0.01 MW EuroDish Themis Solar Power Tower 1.4 MW Odeillo 0.01 MW Alba Nova 34 MW Yulin Alternative Cameo coal-fired Termosolar Energy Park hybrid project 4 MW Borges 25 MW Archimede 92 MW 4.72 MW Santa Teresa New Mexico Sun Tower 92 MW SEDC 5 MW Hassi R'Mel Western Ranch Solar 27 MW ISCC Thermosolar Moroco 20 MW Shiraz Solar Thermal Martin Next Generation 20 MW Kuraymat JOAN1 Power Plant 0.5 MW Energy Centre 75 MW 20 MW 100 MW

Holaniku at Keahole Point 2 MW Shams One Westside solar project 10 MW 80 MW

EuroDish Vellore 0.01 MW

Solar Electric Generation Station(SEGS I-IV) 350 MW Ivanpah I 126 MW Ivanpah II 133 MW Mojave Solar Park 553 MW Ivanpah III 133 MW Central Solar Termo- La Florida 50 MW Coyote Springs 1 eléctrica Cáceres 50 MW Majadas 50 MW La Risca 50 MW 200 MW Crescent Dunes Solar Energy Project 100 MW Solaben 1-3+6 Titan Tracker 0.02 MW Lidell Solar Amargosa Farm Road Energy Project 484 MW Coyote Springs 2 4 50 MW Manchasol 1 50 MW Thermal Station 200 MW San Joaquin Solar 1+2 Termosol II 50 MW Serrezuela Manchasol 2 50 MW 3 MW 2x53,4 MW Palmdale Hybrid Termosol I 50 MW Solar II ASTE 1-4 4x50 MW Gaskell Sun Power Project Nevada La Dehesa 50 MW 50 MW Helios I+II 2x50 MW Tower II 140 MW 62 MW Solar One Astexol 1 50 MW Almadén 20 MW C. Solar Ridgecrest Solar 75 MW Hualapai valley Termoeléctrica Enerstar Gaskell Sun Tower I 105 MW Astexol 2 50 MW Pl. Termosolar 5x10 MW Power Project solar project 340 MW Olivenza 1 50 MW Pl. Termosolar 12 MW Villena 50 MW 242 MW Casa- Beacon Solar Energy Project 250 MW Badajoz 2 50 MW blanca Pl. Termosolar 8 MW PE1 1.4 MW Kingman project 200 MW Puertollano 50 MW Kimberlina Solar Extresol 1 50 MW 50 MW Thermal Plant 5 MW Casa del Ángel PE2 30 MW Calico Solar Ft. Irwin Solar Power Project 980 MW Extresol 2 50 MW Extremasol 1 Thermosolar 0,99 MW Alpine Sun Tower 92 MW 850 MW SkyThrough demonstration 43 MW Extresol 3 50 MW 50 MW Solacor 1+2 2x50 MW Sierra Sun Tower 5 MW Torrefresneda 50 MW Planta Solar Termoelectrica 50 MW Victorville 2 Hybrid Power Project 50 MW Rice Solar Aguila 500 MW Santa Amalia 50 MW El Reboso II La Africana 50 MW Energy Project Valdetorres 50 MW 50 MW Palma del Rio 1+2 2x50 MW Abengoa Mojave Solar 250 MW 150 MW Maricopa Solar Palen Solar Power Project 484 MW Plant 1.5 MW Solnova 4 50 MW Helio- Andasol 1+2 2x50 MW Sonoran Solar Solnova 1+3 2x50 MW Andasol 3 50 MW Genesis Solar Energy Project 250 MW Solnova 2+5 2x50 MW energy 1+2 Solar Two 750 MW Solana Energy Project 2x50 MW EuroDish Almeria I+II 0.02 MW 280 MW 375 MW Aznalcollar TH PS20 20 MW Solar Three 550 MW Saguaro Power PS10 11 MW Gemasolar/CTS Solar TRES 17 MW Big Horn 0.08 MW AZ20 20 MW 500 MW Plant 1.16 MW ESI 0.01 MW Morón 50 MW Blythe Solar Lebria 1 50 MW EuroDish Sevilla Areales PS 50 MW Power Project 968 MW Planta Termosolar de Morón 11 MW UA Tech Park thermal storage 0.01 MW Valle 1 50 MW El Reboso III 50 MW demonstration project 5 MW Valle 2 50 MW

Sun & Wind Energy 6/2010 99 csp world map of power stations

from Mohavesun, and the other is from Solar Millennium­ tively, to the grid by 2014 at the latest, although the in the Amargosa Valley. So far, both plants are only in precise locations have not yet been announced. Even in the planning stage. Iran, which has recently attracted media attention with In Spain, the feed-in tariff includes a storage ­bonus, its disputed nuclear energy plans, there is a 500 kW so that heat storage tanks are almost the standard here ­pilot plant. In the MENA region, not only electricity gen- and Spain is therefore ahead in terms of the capability eration, but also desalination facilities are being to provide base load electricity. The Americans, howev- ­discussed again and again, which could be operated er, have totally different requirements on new power using the waste heat from the CSP plants, since water stations. In the southwest, there has been repeated is an even more urgently needed and scarce resource trouble in recent years with brown-outs and black-outs than electricity in many places in this region. during peak-load periods and CSP plants providing peak-load electricity even without an expensive reser- South Africa voir. With an annual solar irradiation of 3,000 kWh/m2, Boom region MENA South Africa in theory offers optimal conditions for ­solar thermal power stations. In comparison: in Spain, Even though only a small number of CSP plants have ­solar irradiation hardly reaches more than 2,000 kWh/ actually been built in the MENA (Middle East and North m2. Hence, the South African utility company Eskom is Africa) region so far, an enormous market development considering the idea of setting up a CSP plant in the is becoming apparent here as well. There is the ­Desertec ­region North Cape for demonstration purposes. A Initiative, of course, with the aim of covering 15 % of ­capacity of up to 100 MW is being considered. A World the European electricity demand in 2050 from wind Bank credit for energy projects would provide the and solar energy produced in this region. But also be- consider­able amount of US$ 260 million for the solar yond Desertec, the region offers excellent conditions. thermal power station. In order to be prepared, the The global radiation is high throughout this region. Its American power station construction company eSolar energy demand is constantly rising and several projects specifically established a branch office in Johannes- with a total capacity of 60 MW are already being built. burg already last autumn. In Morocco as well as in Egypt, for example, hybrid Each SES Suncatcher parabo- power stations using CSP and natural gas are under Big plans in Asia lic dish concentrator is 38 ft construction. Egypt and Israel are discussing a joint in diameter, and comprised of project in the Sinai Desert. Israel has the technology, In India and China, not much can be seen on the world 40 radially distributed mirror Egypt the land. In March of this year, the French compa- map yet, but this might change soon. Both of these facets (panels), providing ny Solar Euromed and the Sudanese Ministry of Energy ­giant countries have ambitious plans to increase their a total reflective area of jointly declared their intention to build CSP plants with use of solar energy. India plans to raise its solar power 89.6 m2. Reflectivity is up a total capacity of 2 GW in Sudan in the course of the generating capacity to at least 20 GW by 2022. To this to 95.4 % of the incoming next 10 years. It is planned to connect the first two end, the government wants to provide US$ 20 billion insolation. Photo: Tessera Solar projects with capacities of 100 and 150 MW, respec- and plans to refinance this through a tax on petrol and Diesel. Already in 2009, the Indian technology compa- ny ACME obtained a license for eSolar’s tower technol- ogy with the declared aim of building CSP plants with a total capacity of 1 GW. In the Rajasthan region, the ­Indian utility company Entegra plans to build a 10 MW parabolic trough power station, in which molten salt would circulate directly in the receiver tubes instead of thermo-oil. Behind these plans is the Italian consorti- um Solare XXI, which includes, among others, the ­receiver manufacturer Archimede Solar. Archimede is the first company to commercially offer salt receivers. In ­Italy, the consortium is currently building a para­bolic trough power station using the same technology. Great interest is also becoming apparent in China. The highly active US company eSolar has concluded a licensing agreement for a capacity of 2 GW with the ­Chinese energy company Penglai Electric. The con- struction of the first 92 MW unit in China is scheduled to begin already this year. The International Energy Agency currently expects that CSP will be able to cover a good 11 % of the world’s electricity demand by 2050. The projects that have been announced so far, as well as the previous innova- tion rate, make this scenario look very conservative. Jan Gesthuizen

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