Statistical Techniques for Sampling and Monitoring Natural Resources
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Statistical Techniques for United States Sampling and Monitoring Department of Agriculture Natural Resources Forest Service Rocky Mountain Research Station General Technical Hans T. Schreuder, Richard Ernst, and Hugo Ramirez-Maldonado Report RMRS-GTR-126 April 2004 CORRECTIONS Page 26: In Equation (31), a should be added to the denominator, i.e., Page 27: The fourth equation from the top and the line following it should be 1 52 52 780 5 25 50 3.9 10 52 52 200 Then 10 8.5 85 with variance estimate 100 3.90 390 Schreuder, Hans T.; Ernst, Richard; Ramirez-Maldonado, Hugo. 2004. Statistical techniques for sampling and monitoring natural resources. Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-126. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. 111 p. Abstract We present the statistical theory of inventory and monitoring from a probabilistic point of view. We start with the basics and show the interrelationships between designs and estimators illustrating the methods with a small artificial population as well as with a mapped realistic population. For such applications, useful open source software is given in Appendix 4. Various sources of ancillary information are described and applica- tions of the sampling strategies are discussed. Classical and bootstrap variance estimators are discussed also. Numerous problems with solutions are given, often based on the experiences of the authors. Key additional references are cited as needed or desired. Acknowledgments We owe a considerable measure of gratitude to reviewers for valuable comments. Chistopher Kleinn, Steen Magnusson, Ray Czaplewski, Rudy King, and Keith Rennolls reviewed the entire book, Geoff Wood revised an earlier draft, and Jule Caylor took the time to check the remote sensing section and added some updates to it. Mike Williams reviewed the coarse woody debris section, Jim Baldwin and Paul Geissler the wildlife section, Ron McRoberts and Nick Crookston the modeling section, Frank Roesch and Paul Patterson the section on discrete variable sampling, Charles Scott the section on multilevel sampling, and Gretchen Moisen the section on small area estimation. Gary Boyak reviewed and partially rewrote the sections on GIS and GPS, Henry Lachowski reviewed the section on GIS, and Jeff Goebel reviewed the section on sampling for rare events. Tim Gregoire and Kim Iles made useful suggestions on how to handle boundary trees. Lane Eskew did an excellent job of reviewing the manuscript from an editorial point of view and making sure that it conformed with acceptable standards of publication. We owe a considerable debt of gratitude to Ray Czaplewski for suggesting updating Frank Freese’s book and facilitating the subsequent writing of this book. The Authors Hans T. Schreuder is a Mathematical Statistician (retired) with the USDA Forest Service’s Rocky Mountain Research Station in Fort Collins, CO. Richard Ernst is a Mensurationist with the USDA Forest Service’s Forest Management Service Center (Washington Office) in Fort Collins, CO. Hugo Ramirez-Maldonado is a Director General with the National Institute on Forestry, Agriculture and Animal Husbandry Research in Mexico City, Mexico. You may order additional copies of this publication by sending your mailing information in label form through one of the following media. Please specify the publication title and series number. Fort Collins Service Center Telephone (970) 498-1392 FAX (970) 498-1396 E-mail [email protected] Web site http://www.fs.fed.us/rm Mailing address Publications Distribution Rocky Mountain Research Station 240 West Prospect Road Fort Collins, CO 80526 Rocky Mountain Research Station Natural Resources Research Center 2150 Centre Avenue, Building A Fort Collins, CO 80526 Contents I. Introduction .................................................................................................................. 1 II. Objectives of Sampling and Monitoring ................................................................... 2 Why Sample?.............................................................................................................. 2 Planning Your Survey .................................................................................................. 3 Objectives ............................................................................................................. 3 Information to be collected .................................................................................... 4 Developing the sampling approach....................................................................... 5 III. Sampling Concepts and Methodologies ................................................................. 6 Sampling Frame .......................................................................................................... 6 Purposive and Representative Sampling .................................................................... 6 Populations, Parameters, Estimators, and Estimates ................................................ 7 Bias, Accuracy, and Precision ..................................................................................... 8 Variables: Continuous and Discrete ............................................................................ 9 Distribution Functions ............................................................................................... 10 Tools of the Trade ..................................................................................................... 10 Notation ............................................................................................................... 10 Characterizing a distribution using measures of central tendency and dispersion ................................................................................. 12 Standard errors and confidence limits ................................................................ 14 Expanded variances and standard errors ........................................................... 15 Coefficient of variation ........................................................................................ 16 Covariance, correlation, and regression ............................................................. 16 Independence ..................................................................................................... 18 Variances of products, ratios, and sums ............................................................. 19 Transformation of variables ................................................................................ 21 IV. Sampling Strategies ................................................................................................ 22 Designs With the Horvitz-Thompson Estimator ........................................................ 22 Variance Estimation in General................................................................................. 33 Regression and Ratio Estimators ............................................................................. 34 Some Specific Forestry Sampling Methods .............................................................. 40 Sample Size Determination ...................................................................................... 42 Ground Sampling ...................................................................................................... 44 Edge Effects When Sampling at Stand Boundaries ................................................. 46 Design Issues ........................................................................................................... 47 Instrumentation ......................................................................................................... 48 Sampling for Coarse Woody Debris (CWD) ............................................................. 49 Wildlife Sampling ...................................................................................................... 50 V. Sampling Methods for Discrete Variables.............................................................. 51 Simple Random Sampling (SRS) for Classification Data ......................................... 51 Cluster Sampling for Attributes ................................................................................. 53 Cluster Sampling for Attributes With Unequal-Sized Clusters.................................. 55 Sampling of Count Variables .................................................................................... 57 VI. Remote Sensing and Other Ancillary Information ............................................... 59 Remote Sensing and Photography ........................................................................... 59 Accuracy of Remotely Sensed Information .............................................................. 61 Global Positioning System for Spatial Location Needs............................................. 64 Geographic Information System (GIS) ..................................................................... 64 Small Area Estimation ............................................................................................... 65 i VII. Sampling for Rare Events...................................................................................... 67 VIII. Multiple Level Sampling ....................................................................................... 68 Multistage Sampling.................................................................................................. 68 Multiphase Sampling ................................................................................................