PEACE SCIENCE: THEORY AND CASES Contributions to Conflict Management, Peace Economics and Development Volume 11
SERIES EDITOR MANAS CHATTERJI
BOOKS IN THE SERIES
Eurasia: A New Peace Agenda, edited by M. D. Intriligator
Cultural Differences between the Military and Parent Society in Democratic Countries, edited by G. Caforio
Managing Conflict in Economic Convergence of Regions in Greater Europe, edited by F. Carluer
Military Missions and their Implications Reconsidered: The Aftermath of September 11th, edited by G. Caforio and G. Kuemmel
Conflict and Peace in South Asia, edited by M. Chatterji and B. M. Jain
War, Peace, and Security, edited by Jacques Fontanel and Manas Chatterji
Armed Forces and Conflict Resolution, edited by G. Caforio, G. Kümmel and B. Purkayastha
Regional Development and Conflict Management: A Case for Brazil, by Raphael Bar-El
Crisis, Complexity and Conflict, by I. J. Azis
Putting Teeth in the Tiger: Improving the Effectiveness of Arms Embargoes, edited by Michael Brzoska and George A. Lopez
Peace Science: Theory and Cases, by P. Gangopadhyay and M. Chatterji
Advances in Military Sociology: Essays in Honor of Charles C. Moskos (Two Volume Set), edited by Giuseppe Caforio (Forthcoming)
Crisis Management and Regional Cooperation, by I. J. Azis (Forthcoming) Contributions to Conflict Management, Peace Economics and Development Volume 11 PEACE SCIENCE: THEORY AND CASES
PARTHA GANGOPADHYAY University of Western Sydney, Sydney, Australia MANAS CHATTERJI Binghamton University, New York, USA
United Kingdom – North America – Japan India – Malaysia – China Emerald Group Publishing Limited Howard House, Wagon Lane, Bingley BD16 1WA, UK
First edition 2009
Copyright © 2009 Emerald Group Publishing Limited
Reprints and permission service Contact: [email protected]
No part of this book may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, transmitted in any form or by any means electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise without either the prior written permission of the publisher or a licence permitting restricted copying issued in the UK by The Copyright Licensing Agency and in the USA by The Copyright Clearance Center. No responsibility is accepted for the accuracy of information contained in the text, illustrations or advertisements. The opinions expressed in these chapters are not necessarily those of the Editor or the publisher.
British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library
ISBN: 978-1-84855-200-5 ISSN: 1572-8323 (Series)
Awarded in recognition of Emerald’s production department’s adherence to quality systems and processes when preparing scholarly journals for print CONTENTS
LIST OF DIAGRAMS vii
LIST OF FIGURES ix
LIST OF TABLES xi
FOREWORD xiii
PREFACE xv
INTRODUCTION xvii
CHAPTER 1 A STUDY OF ENDOGENOUS FRAGMENTATION OF STATES AS DETERRENCE TO PEACE 1
CHAPTER 2 AN ECONOMIC STUDY OF ETHNIC HETEROGENEITY AND ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR CONFLICTS AND PEACE 67
CHAPTER 3 CYCLES OF VIOLENT CONFLICTS AND PEACE IN A DYNAMIC MODEL OF THE GLOBAL SYSTEM 107
v vi CONTENTS
CHAPTER 4 POLITICS OF DEFENCE SPENDING AND ENDOGENOUS INEQUALITY 123
CHAPTER 5 REGIONAL INTEGRATION, DEVELOPMENT AND PEACE PROCESS 147
CHAPTER 6 SNARES AND QUICKSAND ON THE PATHWAY TO PEACE: ROLE OF INTERNATIONAL TENSION IN LOCAL CONFLICTS 171
CHAPTER 7 FOOD ENTITLEMENTS, PUBLIC POLICY AND CONFLICTS IN BACKWARD SOCIETIES 247
CHAPTER 8 COSTLY PEACE: A STUDY OF THE DYNAMICS OF NEGOTIATIONS FOR PEACE AND DISARMAMENT 285
CONCLUSION 319
BIBLIOGRAPHY 337
INDEX 363 LIST OF DIAGRAMS
Diagram 2.1 Intolerance and Multiple Equilibria. By construction: E1 is unstable, E2 is stable, E3 is unstable, E4 is stable ...... 97 Diagram 2.2 The Replicator Dynamics ...... 104 Diagram 7.1 Perfect Nash Equilibria in Food Market ...... 262 Diagram 7.2 Unique Perfect Nash Equilibrium in Food Markets ...... 263 Diagram 7.3 No Pure-Strategy Equilibrium in Food Markets ...... 264 Diagram 7.4 Multiple Equilibria in Food Markets ...... 265 Diagram 7.5 The Cournot–Nash Equilibrium Biofuel Output with Two Rival Farmers ...... 281
vii
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1.1 The Time Structure of Decisions ...... 32 Figure 1.2 Existence of a Unique-Separating Equilibrium ...... 39 Figure 1.3 Existence of Pooling Equilibrium ...... 40 Figure 1.4 The Case of Three Stable Equilibria ...... 43 Figure 1.5 The Case of Two Stable (Partial Disclosure) Equlibria ...... 44 Figure 4.1 Time Structure of Decisions ...... 132 Figure 5.1 Framework of New Economic Geography ...... 152 Figure 5.2 Generation of Agglomeration Forces ...... 153 Figure 5.3 The Game Flow Chart ...... 160 Figure 5.4 Post-Privatisation Equilibria ...... 167 Figure 5.5 The First Order Condition of the Government’s Mixed Objective ...... 168 Figure 6.1 Risk-Return Trade-off ...... 200 Figure 6.2 Efficient Portfolios ...... 201 Figure 6.3 The Change in Beta during Three Time Periods ...... 209 Figure 6.4 Unique and Stable Nash Equilibrium ...... 229 Figure 6.5 Equilibrium Quality of Governance ...... 233 Figure 6.6 Nonlinearities in Governance and Resources...... 235 Figure 6.7 Existence of Multiple Equilibria ...... 238 Figure 6.8 Possibility of Limit Cycles ...... 239 Figure 8.1 Global vis-a` -vis Local Stability (a) Global Stability (b) Local Stability ...... 293
ix
LIST OF TABLES
Table 1.1 The Cournot–Nash Equilibrium of the Corn Market (without Entry) ...... 24 Table 1.2 Globalisation and Fiscal Deficits of Indian States (1989–2000) ...... 52 Table 1.3 Economic Status of Indian States in 1996–1998 ...... 52 Table 1.4 Index of Local Government Failure ...... 56 Table 2.1 Index of Human Capital of Researchers ...... 86 Table 2.2 j Regression Result of Xij on Y 2: Summary Output . ... 90 Table 2.3 j Regression of Xij on Log hi and Y 2: Summary Output ...... 91 Table 2.4 j j Regression of Xij on Log hi and Y 1 and Y 2: Summary Output ...... 93 Table 2.5 Description of the Static Game ...... 102 Table 3.1 Characterisation of the Dynamics ...... 121 Table 6.1 Measuring Beta Risk of Conflict – A Hypothetical Case ...... 203 Table 6.2 The Beta Values from 1970 to 2004 ...... 205 Table 6.3 Estimates of Beta Values from 1970 to 1982 ...... 206 Table 6.4 Estimates of Beta Values from 1983 to 1991 ...... 207 Table 6.5 Estimates of Beta Values from 1992 to 2004 ...... 208 Table 6.6 Beta Transition/Mobility Matrix 1970–1982 to 1983–1991 ...... 217 Table 6.7 Regression Results ...... 220 Table 6.8 Beta Transition/Mobility Matrix 1983–1991 to 1992–2004 ...... 221 Table 7.1 Snapshots of Famines ...... 275 Table 7.2 Distribution of Famine Mortality from 1900 to 1999 ...... 275 Table 8.1 Application of Backward Induction ...... 302
xi
FOREWORD
Since the 1980s the global system has displayed a clear bifurcation that has immense implications for the stability of global peace. On the one hand, the forces supporting peaceful settlements of conflicts and violent disputes have been gaining significant momentum especially in the developed part of our globe. On the other hand, violent conflicts are a recurring theme in poorer regions of the globe. The main goal of the book is to develop and test consistent economic models to articulate that lasting global peace is critically predicated upon the above bifurcation. Global peace is therefore highly fragile. In order to achieve sustainable global peace, careful and collective negotiations must take place to bridge the above bifurcation between the rich and the poor. In many societies today, violent conflicts regularly spring up that usually cause a destruction of economic and social assets and loss of human lives. In other societies, on the contrary, a peaceful resolution of serious conflicts often takes place. Even many societies seem to traverse from conflicts to peace and to costly conflicts again, where some seem to enjoy lasting peace. The literature on the economics and politics of peace and conflict has made a significant scientific progress during the last five decades. A new social science discipline called Peace Science has emerged and considerable research materials are presently available. The objective of Peace Science is to develop and integrate tools, methods and theoretical frameworks available in the social and natural sciences, law engineering and other disciplines and professions. This field is interdisciplinary. This book presents some of these theories and their applications paying emphasis on: Consolidation of the present state of the theory of peace and conflicts Clarification of the economics and politics of peace Lifting the whole subject into new and uncharted territories.
Manas Chatterji Series Editor May 2009
xiii
PREFACE
Partha Gangopadhyay and Manas Chatterji have produced an outstanding book on Peace Science that will help further the establishment of this field as one with a solid academic base and with many practical applications in the world of policy. The field combines traditional international relations theory with peace and defense economics and national and global security studies in order to study peace. Peace science has made important contributions in recent years, many of which are treated in this book. Of course, more must and will be done to provide a framework to prevent war and promote peace, building on the earlier contributions, including this book. While the advent of the UN system has done much to prevent or stop interstate wars, some wars of this type have nonetheless begun in recent years and they must be analysed in order to understand how to prevent them. Even more important has been the advent of major internal wars, particularly in the poor nations of the global south, and considerable work must still be done to treat the bases of these wars in order to understand them and to prevent them. Peace science as elaborated in this book can play a significant role in this work.
Michael D. Intriligator University of California, Los Angeles, CA, USA
xv
INTRODUCTION
Violent conflicts and peace are the flip sides of the same coin of our societies. In many societies, conflicts of violent nature regularly spring up, which cause a destruction of economic and social assets and needless loss of human lives. In similar societies, on the contrary, a peaceful resolution of serious conflicts often takes place. Even many societies seem to traverse from conflicts to peace and to costly conflicts again. Some societies do seem to enjoy lasting peace. The literature on the economics and politics of peace and conflict has been with us now for several decades. An abundant crop of excellent work has appeared supporting, critiquing and complementing the original ideas that economic development is a precursor to an effective resolution of conflicts and, hence, a pre-condition for sustainable and lasting peace. Yet some parts of the world are still replete with unending chains of violence and conflicts. The prospect of a lasting global peace is still a forlorn hope. What is needed at this critical juncture is not an additional work discussing or rectifying or tweaking some points of detail, but a comprehensive and general re-working aiming at the following: Consolidation of the present state of the theory of peace and conflicts Clarification of the economics and politics of peace Lifting of the whole subject into new and uncharted territories By so doing the current research manuscript will offer a series of new insights into the problems and prospects of war, peace and conflicts. In order to shed new lights on the pressing issues related to peace, we will approach the problem and prospects of war and peace from new angles and thereby evade the dominant tradition, methodology and models within which the existing work had proceeded so far. Let us have a look at the central issues that our work will examine in great detail. In Chapter 1 entitled A Study of Endogenous Fragmentation of States as Deterrence to Peace, we start our journey into an uncharted territory: the starting point of our research is a casual empiricism that intrastate conflicts have been on the ascendancy while the incidence of interstate conflicts and
xvii xviii INTRODUCTION frequencies of ideological conflicts have subsided in the post-Cold War world. As positive examples, the prospect of global peace has been ably aided by the following developments: The frequency of armed conflicts fell by about 40% in the 1990s except in sub-Saharan Africa where the incidence remains high. Genocides and politicides declined by 80%. International arms transfers went down by 33% in value. Forced migration of refugees fell by about 45%. Battle-deaths declined by about 80%. War-death rates came down by about 35%. Military spending as a percentage of GDP declined in most countries and globally by almost 50%. The number of soldiers per 1,000 people went down by 35%. Against this positive backdrop, there is some evidence that conflicts have a regional bias, as most violent conflicts are located in poorer regions of our globe, which poses a serious threat to the global peace. The prospect of a lasting global peace has been threatened by some of the following developments: The major exception and continuing source of conflicts has been sub- Saharan Africa whose growth of real GDP per capita adjusted for PPP halved from the 1980s to the 1990s. A recovery since 2000 has started, which can reverse the trend in violent conflicts. The region is also known to have serious problems with fragile availability of foods and hunger. However, there are a host of other problems in these regions. According to the World Bank’s World Development Indicators of 2005, the number of people living in extreme poverty (at less than $1 a day) doubled in sub-Saharan Africa from 1981 to 2001. Since the end of the 1980s, 80% of the world’s 20 poorest countries (many in the sub-Saharan region) have suffered from a major war. Military expenditure as a proportion of GDP and the number of soldiers per 1,000 people changed little in the region. Battle-deaths actually fell in sub-Saharan Africa through the 1990s (apart from an all-time high spike from 1998 to 2000 due to the Eritrean war). However, war-deaths in this region have vastly exceeded battle-deaths due to indirect deaths. Disputes over natural resources triggered some region’s long-standing ethnic tensions that have contributed to violent conflict. Introduction xix