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Fire-Related Risks and Conservation Strategies for Ecological Communities

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Fire-Related Risks and Conservation Strategies for Ecological Communities Fire-related risks and conservation strategies for ecological communities Mark G. Tozer, David A. Keith June 2021 Cite this report as: Tozer MG, Keith DA (2021) Fire-related risks and conservation strategies for ecological communities. NESP Threatened Species Hub Project 8.4.2 report, Brisbane. Cover image: (left to right): Top-killed Toona ciliata and associated vines in Temperate subtropical rainforest at Yattah Yattah Nature Reserve, Milton, NSW; basal resprouting of top-killed Doryphora sassafras with Solanum aviculare recruitment in Northern cool temperate rainforests at Sassafras, NSW; burnt Sphagnum cristatum in Alpine bogs at Delaneys bog, neat Tantangara, Koscuiszko National Park; and vigorous post-fire regrowth of graminoids in Newnes plateau shrub swamp at Budgary swamp, Newnes State Forest, NSW. 2 Contents Executive summary .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 4 Introduction ....................................................................................................................................................................................................... 6 Classification of assessment units .............................................................................................................................................................. 6 Rainforests ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 6 Context ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 6 Synthesis ...............................................................................................................................................................................................7 Peatlands ..................................................................................................................................................................................................17 Context ................................................................................................................................................................................................17 Synthesis .............................................................................................................................................................................................17 Methods .............................................................................................................................................................................................................21 Diagnosing the drivers and mechanisms of ecosystem decline ...............................................................................................21 Assessment of risks to target ecosystems .......................................................................................................................................21 Threat exposure ................................................................................................................................................................................21 Conservation strategies .......................................................................................................................................................................21 Findings ............................................................................................................................................................................................................22 Threat diagnosis (Aim 1) .......................................................................................................................................................................22 Rainforests .........................................................................................................................................................................................22 Peatlands ............................................................................................................................................................................................23 Preliminary risk assessment (Aim 2) ..................................................................................................................................................25 Rainforests .........................................................................................................................................................................................25 Peatlands ............................................................................................................................................................................................34 Management strategies (Aim 3) .........................................................................................................................................................38 Rainforests ...............................................................................................................................................................................................38 Peatlands ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 41 Discussion and Conclusions .......................................................................................................................................................................46 Recommendations ........................................................................................................................................................................................47 Acknowledgements .......................................................................................................................................................................................47 References .......................................................................................................................................................................................................47 Fire-related risks and conservation strategies for ecological communities 3 Executive summary The black summer bushfires in mainland southeastern Australia during 2019-20 were the most extensive, and among the more severe in recorded history. While the fires burnt a diversity of different ecosystems types, the long-term consequences for ecosystem sustainability are poorly understood, despite potentially far-reaching consequences for biodiversity conservation, cultural values and essential ecosystem services. To improve understanding of which ecosystem types are affected, how the fires contribute to long term risks and develop risk-reduction strategies, this study applied a diagnostic risk-based approach to rainforests and peat-accumulating ecosystems, two of the most unique and potentially fire-sensitive groups of ecosystems on the Australian continent. We first reviewed available data and developed working classifications to define 14 broad units of rainforest and 11 broad peatland types for national-scale synthesis, in the context of existing listings of threatened ecological communities and jurisdictional classifications. We then developed diagnostic models to identify key ecosystem components, the ecological processes that sustain them, and the threatening processes that underpin risks of ecosystem degradation and collapse. We found that fire and climate change were pervasive threats across all types of rainforest and peatland. Spatial analyses to quantify the exposure of different rainforest and peatland types to fire-related threats and climate change showed that by 2017, all peatland types and almost all rainforest types are projected to be exposed to more prolonged and more severe drought. Prior to the 2019-20 fires, all peatland types within the study area were exposed to severe and prolonged drought, resulting in fire activity across 50-99% of the distribution of four peatland types and 20-50% of the distribution of one additional type. The proportion of rainforest extent in drought varied from 25 to 100% across different types, resulting in fire activity across 17-88% of their respective distributions. All ecosystem types have widespread exposure to high-severity impacts from multiple threatening processes (at least three for rainforests, at least two for peatlands). While altered fire regimes and climate change were pervasive, other threats such as habitat loss and fragmentation, invasive plants, vertebrates and disease, nutrient enrichment, erosion, sedimentation and mining-related changes to hydrology were significant threats to particular types of ecosystems. Based on the threat diagnosis, we developed conservation strategies that bring together a suite of measures primarily to reduce risks associated with major threat syndromes applicable to different groups of exposed and susceptible ecosystems, as well as cross-cutting strategies that support effective governance and implementation. The strategies include measures for protection, threat abatement, management, restoration, research and monitoring, communication and engagement. In addition to these ecosystem-specific risk reduction strategies, all rainforest
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