In this issue: Arrogate is Great, but How Great? – Page 1 Track Phantom’s Derby Top Ten – Page 2 OptixEQ Florida Derby Preview – Page 5 Keeneland Stats Packs – Pages 6, 33, and 49 Melissa Nolan’s Freshman Sire Report – Page 25 Keep an eye on the Tote Board – Page 30 Jackpot Bets Hinder Growth – Page 32 Vin Rogers’s Positive Angles – Page 45 The Horseplayer Monthly April 2017 Issue button speed that they can use at any time. They don’t need the lead, but they instinctively prefer to lead the herd. They are, what I have defined previously, class By Rich Halvey, Halvey on Horse Racing horses. The definition of class I have offered is the ability of a horse to hold its speed over longer distances. A lot of The other day I heard a historian lamenting that as the horses can run a :21.4 quarter, or a :44 half, but fewer years pass, witnesses to history’s most significant events horses can do that and finish in 1:08.2, or complete a mile also pass. We’re left with the stories passed down, or the in 1:34. What Secretariat did in the Derby – running each books that are written, but they are a poor second to the successive quarter faster than the last – is as rare as a 56- oral accounts of those who lived through events. Our game hitting streak in baseball. When Seattle Slew ran great-grandparents lived through The War to End All Wars, impossibly fast fractions – :45.1, 1:09.2, 1:35.2, 2:01.4 – our grandparents lived through the Great Depression, our and finished in 2:27.2, only to lose by a nose to Exceller, parents – those whom Tom Brokaw called the Greatest his performance was stamped as one of the greatest of Generation – changed the world during the Second World the century. And don’t forget he demolished Triple Crown War, and in the lifetimes of the baby boomers, we were winner Affirmed in the process. Forego’s defeat of witness to Civil Rights and the Vietnam War. Having been Kentucky Derby winner Honest Pleasure in the 1976 there we have a perspective that only comes from being Marlboro Cup was equally one for the ages. The list could an eyewitness to history. go on. Class horses can simply do things that merely good When Arrogate won the Dubai World Cup the superlatives flew and many horseplayers were quick to horses could never accomplish. anoint the performance, if not the horse itself, as the As history points out over and over, those things to greatest of all time. No less an expert than Arrogate’s which you are witness seem larger than similar events trainer, Bob Baffert, proclaimed Arrogate the “greatest from the past. Those who pronounced Arrogate the horse since Secretariat.” Well, perhaps his bias as superior of Man o’ War were at least caught up in the Arrogate’s caretaker had something to do with that moment, but let’s be realistic – nobody alive today can tell opinion, but there is little doubt the horse we saw you they saw both horses and could pronounce the better Saturday was a rare talent indeed. of the two. And if you want to compare running times, Arrogate had a troubled start, pinched between two you’d have to account for the different track composition rivals right out of the gate and dead-last in the run to the and the lack of a sophisticated timing system. I’ll tell you first turn. Mike Smith, his rider, never panicked, instead this. The people I knew that had seen Man o’War and steering Arrogate to the outside, biding his time down the Citation would never concede any horses since were backstretch, and making his move coming out of the far superior. It’s the nature of the horse being of your turn. He won in powerful fashion in a time of 2:02.23. generation. After the race, Baffert, clearly emotionally caught up in the I never saw Man o’War or Citation or Native Dancer, and moment, said, “When he missed the break, I gave him no I have only hazy memories of Kelso, Dr. Fager, and chance at all. I was so mad at myself thinking I shouldn’t Buckpasser, but I have vivid memories of Secretariat, have brought him – that’s the greatest horse I’ve ever Forego, Seattle Slew, Affirmed, and Alydar, and I can seen run, it’s unbelievable, I can’t believe he won. That is a remember having the same thrill from some of their races great horse.” that fans got from Arrogate’s performance. Sure, Arrogate was up against it after the break, and no Was Arrogate’s performance in the Dubai World Cup the horse of ordinary talent may have won as convincingly as greatest of all time? Is he a better horse than the two he did, but I’ve seen on more than one occasion high standards by which all other thoroughbreds are measured quality speed horses miss the break and instead of rushing – Man o’War and Secretariat? Unfortunately nobody can to the lead (what I call the death move), were allowed to know for sure, but we can say this for certain. We saw a settle and ran by the field in the end with the same great horse give a great performance, and who knows. If reaction from the trainer. Arrogate keeps up what we saw in his last four races, Horses that prefer to run from the front fall into maybe our children or grandchildren will talk about a few categories. There are rank speed horses, need to comparing some future thoroughbred of the moment to lead types, but also horses like Arrogate that have push- Secretariat, Man o’War…and Arrogate. THE HORSEPLAYER MONTHLY, BROUGHT TO YOU BY THE HORSEPLAYERS ASSOCIATION OF NORTH AMERICA Wilkes. He’s got a huge late kick and despite winning by only nine combined lengths, he’s been much the best each time. He missed the Tampa Bay Derby with th Derby Pace Will Be Fast an ankle strain. He’s scheduled to run in the April 8 Blue Grass. Check out Track Phantom’s Twitter and website for more of his daily analysis 4. Practical Joke – Chad Brown colt won two Grade 1 races as a 2-year old and then ran a solid third in the When the points system started a few years ago, it Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Runner-up to Gunnevera in eliminated fake speed types from the Derby. No longer did the Fountain of Youth in a big effort off the layoff. He’ll was originally supposed to get a rematch with we see future sprinters taking place in the Derby field. that one in the Florida Derby, but trainer Chad Brown This meant the Derby pace had slowed somewhat and opted to go to the Blue Grass instead. favored those stalking the pace. You have to go back to 2005 the last time the pace collapsed on a dry track, setting it up for a deep closer. That year, Giacomo went 5. J Boys Echo – Winner of the G3 Gotham Stakes in from 18th to first at 50-1 to win in a major upset. classy style at 6-1 earlier this month. Trainer Dale Romans is going to win a Derby. This Mineshaft colt cost $480,000 and should love any added distance. th He’ll run in the April 8 Blue Grass in his final Derby prep. 6. Tapwrit – Another Todd Pletcher runner and this one cost $1,200,000. He crushed in the Tampa Bay Derby after running a game second to McCraken in the Sam F. Davis. His dam won the G1 Spinaway at Saratoga. He’s three-for-four routing, only loss to McCraken. Next start undecided. 7. Battalion Runner – Pletcher colt is two-for-three. He has the fourth highest Beyer (98) of any of the main contenders. He got that going seven furlongs at Gulfstream. Dam is full to Tapizar. Deeper in the female tree is an Arkansas Derby winner, Olympio. He’ll go in the Florida Derby on Saturday. The 2017 Kentucky Derby is starting to look like a speed- laden field. Many of the top performers on the Derby trail 8. Girvin – Joe Sharp runner took the G2 Risen Star at have been front speed types. This could generate the kind Fair Grounds at odds of 8-1. That made him two-for- of pace the deep closers really need. With that scenario in three with a very close second in his other start (which mind, here is my top ten for the Derby with just a handful came on the turf). This colt sold for 18x his sire fee. of prep races remaining: He’ll go in the April 1st Louisiana Derby. 1. Gunnevara – Deep closer has won four of his past six 9. Classic Empire – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner really races and is three-for-four with Castellano aboard. suffered his first defeat in the G2 Holy Bull, when third He’ll be one of the main players in the Florida Derby. behind Irish War Cry and Gunnevera (he did lose when His trainer is the all-time winningest trainer in he wheeled and lost his jockey in the G1 Hopeful). Venezuela. If he runs well Saturday, he’s a strong Eligible to improve second off the shelf in the Blue selection for the Derby. Grass on April 8th.