RESEARCH PAPER 99/64 Elections to the European 21 JUNE 1999 Parliament – June 1999 This paper presents a summary of the results of the June 1999 elections to the European Parliament. The main analysis concentrates on voting in the UK. This includes data at regional level and details of the votes cast in areas covered by Westminster constituencies in Great Britain. For the European Union as a whole, details of turnout and elected MEPs are also presented. A summary of previous elections can be found in Research Paper 99/57 European Parliament Elections - 1979 to 1994. Bryn Morgan & Richard Cracknell SOCIAL & GENERAL STATISTICS SECTION HOUSE OF COMMONS LIBRARY Recent Library Research Papers include: 99/49 The Northern Ireland (Location of Victims' Remains) Bill 07.05.99 [Bill 92 of 1998-99] 99/50 Scottish Parliament Elections: 6 May 1999 11.05.99 99/51 Welsh Assembly Elections: 6 May 1999 12.05.99 99/52 The local elections of 6 May 1999 17.05.99 99/53 Unemployment by Constituency - April 1999 19.05.99 99/54 Institutional Reform in the European Union 20.05.99 99/55 Wind Power 26.05.99 99/56 Homicide Statistics 27.05.99 99/57 European Parliament Elections - 1979 to 1994 02.06.99 99/58 The Pollution Prevention and Control Bill [HL] [Bill 107 of 1998-99] 03.06.99 99/59 Buses 08.06.99 99/60 Hospital waiting lists and waiting times 14.06.99 99/61 Freedom of Information - The Continuing Debate 16.06.99 99/62 Unemployment by Constituency - May 1999 16.06.99 99/63 By-elections since the 1997 general election 17.06.99 Research Papers are available as PDF files: • to members of the general public on the Parliamentary web site, URL: http://www.parliament.uk • within Parliament to users of the Parliamentary Intranet, URL: http://hcl1.hclibrary.parliament.uk Library Research Papers are compiled for the benefit of Members of Parliament and their personal staff. Authors are available to discuss the contents of these papers with Members and their staff but cannot advise members of the general public. Users of the printed version of these papers will find a pre-addressed response form at the end of the text. ISSN 1368-8456 Summary of main points Elections to the European Parliament were held on 10 June 1999 in the UK. In Great Britain, the Conservatives won 36 of the 81 seats, with Labour winning 29. Plaid Cymru, the Green Party and the UK Independence Party gained their first ever MEPs. In Northern Ireland, the DUP gained the most number of first preference votes. The DUP, SDLP and UUP shared the three seats in Northern Ireland. Turnout in Great Britain was around 23%, with around 57% voting in Northern Ireland. Turnout in the UK was lower than in any other EU country and than in any previous election to the European Parliament. Definitions: Turnout – Valid votes as a percentage of the electorate as given by returning officers or in ONS Electoral Statistics 1999 “Round” – The stage of the count in which seats are allocated to parties successively, using the d’Hondt quota Useful internet sites http://www.homeoffice.gov.uk/epelections/index.htm – Home Office European Elections site http://www1.europarl.eu.int/uk/index.html – European Parliament Office in the UK http://www.europarl.eu.int/ - main European Parliament site, includes a listing of MEPs by party and country http://www.hmso.gov.uk/acts/acts1999/19990001.htm – Full text of the European Parliamentary Elections Act 1999 http://www.legislation.hmso.gov.uk/si/si1999/19991214.htm –Full text of The European Parliamentary Elections Regulations 1999 SI 1999/1214 [This 1st reprint includes figures for rejected ballot papers and a revised electorate for Salisbury constituency and the South West Region] CONTENTS I Introduction 7 II Summary results 7 III Tables 11 National Table 1 – Votes cast and seats won by party in Great Britain & Northern Ireland 11 Regional Table 2 – Votes cast, share of votes and seats won by party by electoral region 12 Table 3 – Turnout by region 13 Table 4 – Seats awarded by party by region and round 14 Table 5 – Changes in share of vote by region since 1997 General Election and 1994 European Elections 15 Table 6 – Change in European Parliamentary seats won by region 16 Westminster constituencies Table 7 – Highest and lowest shares of vote by major party and constituency 17 Table 8 – Highest and lowest turnouts by constituency 18 Table 9 – Notional outcome of a General Election on the basis of European Election results 19 Table 10 – Highest and lowest changes in share of vote by major party by constituency compared with 1997 General Election 20 Table 11 – Votes cast by party by constituency 21 Table 12 – Share of vote by party by constituency and turnout 35 Table 13 – Changes in share of the vote by party and constituency 49 Europe-wide Table 14 – Voter turnout across the EU (1979 to 1999) 63 Table 15 – MEPs by political group before and after June 1999 elections 64 Appendix 1 - List of UK MEPs 66 RESEARCH PAPER 99/64 I Introduction Elections took place for the European Parliament throughout the EU between 10 and 13 June 1999. This paper sets out results of these elections, largely for the UK, but also provides additional material on the results throughout the EU. It provides an early statistical digest of the results rather than a discussion or analysis of them. The June 1999 elections were the first national elections in Great Britain to use a form of proportional representation. This involved aggregating votes in Great Britain for regions to determine the number of MEPs for each party using the d’Hondt quota system. (Northern Ireland retained its system of electing its three MEPs by Single Transferable Vote.) The regional aggregates in GB were compiled from returns made for Westminster constituency areas by local returning offices. The voting figures in this paper for Westminster constituencies have been provided by regional returning officers and these are set out in full in Table 11. II Summary results The following table compares the number of UK European Parliament seats by party won in 1994 and 1997. These are compared with two estimates of what would have happened if the current PR system had been used in 1994 and if a first-past-the-post (FPTP) constituency-based system had continued to be used in 1999. In both cases the actual votes cast have been used for these calculations with no allowance for changes in voting behaviour that might occur under different electoral systems. GB MEPs under alternative voting systems – 1994 & 1999 Party 1994 Actual 1994 on current 1999 Actual 1999 on FPTP system (estimated) (estimated) Labour62432930 Conservative 18 26 36 49 Liberal Democrats 2 11 10 - SNP2323 PC - 1 2 2 UKIP - - 3 - Green - - 2 - Index of proportionality# 70 89 86 68 (GB) # This index is commonly used as a simple way of comparing relative proportionality of electoral systems. It is calculated as the sum of the differences between the proportion of seats and votes, divided by 2 and subtracted from 100. A system that yields the same proportion of seats as votes would score 100. The further away from 100 the less proportional the result. The number of ballot papers rejected in the count was 24,867 in Great Britain and 8,764 in Northern Ireland. In the 1994 European Parliament elections 32,316 had been rejected in Great Britain and 9,234 in Northern Ireland. In the 1997 General Election the 7 RESEARCH PAPER 99/64 equivalent totals were 90,288 for GB and 3,120 for Northern Ireland. As a proportion of the total poll, the rate of rejected papers was slightly less for GB in 1999, 25 per 10,000 total papers, than in the 1997 General Election, 30 per 10,000, and marginally higher than in 1994, 21 per 10,000. The 1999 European Election votes by party were made available for Westminster constituencies, it is therefore possible to compare the number of Westminster seats that would have been won in Great Britain had voting in a General Election followed exactly the same pattern. These are shown, together with the 1997 General Election results below: House of Commons seats by party - UK 1997 General Notional based on Election 1999 Euro-election Labour 418 261 Conservative 165 352 Liberal Democrat 46 3 SNP 6 15 PC 4 10 Other (inc. N Ireland) 20 18 1997 General Election Notional 1999 result 450 418 400 352 350 300 261 250 200 165 150 100 46 43 50 30 3 0 Labour Cons Lib Dem Other Labour Cons Lib Dem Other 1997 Overall, 208 seats would have changed hands compared with the General Election of 1997. The Conservative Party would have gained a total of 159, including 144 from Labour, with no losses. Gained by: Gained from: Conservative Labour LibDem PC SNP Total Conservative Labour 144 2 6 7 159 LibDem 40 1 4 45 PC SNP 2 2 Other 1 1 2 Total18722611208 8 RESEARCH PAPER 99/64 GB Parliamentary seats changing hands on the basis of 1999 European Election results compared with 1997 General Election Conservative gains from Labour (144) Amber Valley Enfield, Southgate Preseli Pembrokeshire Ayr Erewash Pudsey Barrow & Furness Exeter Putney Batley & Spen Falmouth & Camborne Reading East Battersea Finchley & Golders Green Reading West Bexleyheath & Crayford Forest of Dean Redditch Birmingham, Edgbaston Gedling Romford Birmingham, Hall Green Gillingham Rossendale & Darwen Blackpool N & Fleetwood Gloucester Rugby & Kenilworth Bolton North East Gravesham Scarborough & Whitby Bolton West Great Yarmouth Selby Bradford North Halesowen & Rowley Regis Sherwood Bradford South Halifax Shipley Bradford West Hammersmith & Fulham Shrewsbury & Atcham Braintree Harrow West Sittingbourne & Sheppey Brigg &