Analysis of Effectiveness of Amnesty Program As a Response Tool in Containment of the Impact of “Cult Related” Activities in Niger Delta Region

Asian Research Journal of Arts & Social Sciences

9(4): 1-16, 2019; Article no.ARJASS.53147 ISSN: 2456-4761

Analysis of Effectiveness of Amnesty Program as a Response Tool in Containment of the Impact of “Cult Related” Activities in Niger Delta Region

Ngozi Rodney Nwaogu1*, Vincent Weli2 and Mbee Daniel Mbee2

1Centre for Disaster Risk Management and Development Studies, University of Port Harcourt, Choba, Rivers State, Nigeria. 2Department of Geography and Environmental Management, University of Port Harcourt, Choba, Rivers State, Nigeria.

Authors’ contributions

This work was carried out in collaboration among all authors. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

Article Information

DOI: 10.9734/ARJASS/2019/v9i430135 Editor(s): (1) Dr. David A. Kinnunen, Department of Kinesiology, California State University, Fresno, USA. (2) Dr. Suleyman Goksoy, Associate Professor, Department of Educational Sciences, Educational Administration and Supervision, University of Duzce, Turkey. Reviewers: (1) Tetiana V. Obikhod, Institute for Nuclear Research, Ukraine. (2) Matei Adrian Ducu, Athenaeum University, Romania. (3) M. V. Chandramathi, Delhi Public School, India. (4) Abiola Muideen Lateef, University of Kashere, Nigeria. (5) Dinesh Vallabh, Walter Sisulu University, South Africa. Complete Peer review History: http://www.sdiarticle4.com/review-history/53147

Received 05 October 2019 Accepted 10 December 2019 Original Research Article Published 26 December 2019

ABSTRACT

Background of Study: Cult related activities such as inter and intra cult clashes have been prevalent in communities in Niger Delta Region of Nigeria. The clashes which are violent in nature are carried out by youths who belong to one cult group or the other. The clashes occur when members of a cult group attack members of another or other cult groups or invade a community in order to take control of an area and the proceeds accruing from crude oil exploitation and exploration by multinational oil companies. Among the major cult groups perpetrating the violent acts include Deybam, Deywell, Iceland and Greenland. Due to the violent clashes many lives have been lost, properties destroyed, women raped, residents displaced, houses burnt and residents kidnapped/abducted. These affected socio-economic activities and livelihood means of the people. ______

*Corresponding author: Email: [email protected];

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Materials and Methods: This research analyzes the effectiveness of amnesty program as a response tool in mitigating cult related activities in Niger Delta region. Specifically, the study examines the magnitude of cult impact, relationship between frequency of cult attacks and fatalities, and examines the impact of cult activities before and after the amnesty. Adopting Cross- sectional research resign and using data chiefly collected from Nigerian Police, a total of 36 communities were purposively selected from 2 States in Niger Delta where amnesty was offered in 2016. The data were subjected to Pearson’s correlation and T-test statistical analysis. Results: Pearson’s correlation showed that there was a positive significant relationship between cult attacks and fatalities over a ten year period, with r = 0.83 at 99% probability level. The Student’s t-test showed a statistically significant difference on cult attacks before and after amnesty with t-cal of 2.55> t-tab of 2.01 at 95% probability level. The t-test also showed a statistically significant difference on cult fatalities before and after amnesty with t-cal of 2.41> t- tab of 2.01 at 95% probability level. Findings further revealed that mean values of cult attacks (3.20) and fatalities (2.70) after the amnesty were greater than mean values of cult attacks (2.13) and fatalities (1.37) before the amnesty. Conclusion: This showed that despite the amnesty, cult impact was still high in the study area and it was concluded that administration of amnesty is not an effective response tool to mitigation and containment of cult related activities in Niger Delta region, owing to its poor implementation and the desire to join cult groups by many youths who felt that joining the cult group will accord them protection and power over others. It is recommended that government should involve the local communities in designing an intervention program for youths.

Keywords: Cult impact; amnesty; Niger Delta.

1. INTRODUCTION Studies conducted in the Niger Delta region of Nigeria have implicated politicking in the region The disastrous impact of cult related violence as for the cult related attacks. According to witnessed in Niger Delta today is yet to gain Nyiayaana [2], the use of cult groups has currency across the globe even though the level become a key strategy in the acquisition of of devastation has remained in constant increase political powers among political elites and and a cause for serious concern as both social parties. This is because politicians employ their and economic activities have suffered severe services as body guards and informal security setbacks. The menace has negatively affected during elections to intimidate and subdue their social and economic activities of residents, opponents, thereby making it a source of thereby threatening their wellbeing. As a result, recruiting unemployed youths. Other researchers people find it difficult to relate with friends and have associated the menace with the incessant relatives, attend community meetings and proliferation of arms and ammunition in the schools as well as access their farms and region occasioned by the militancy over resource transact business effectively. Birabil and Okanezi control. According to Ikoh and Ukpong [3], small [1] pointed out that violence resulting from cult arms and light weapons proliferated in Niger attacks has taken an alarming dimension that Delta when militancy erupted in the area. Human pose threat to residents. Because they are Right Watch [4] inferred that cult conflict in the perpetrated by community youths, and take region was precipitated by widespread people by surprise, they become difficult to availability of small arms caused by militancy and control and by consequence cause destruction agitation for resource control. This was equivalent to man-made disasters. corroborated by UNICEF [5] which posited that

According to report by United Nations Human children as young as eight were using guns at Rights Office of the High Commissioner in 2017, the height of the militancy. Also, agitation for the conflict in Syria was classified as the worst surveillance job of crude oil facilities, rising man-made disaster since World War II because unemployment and poverty levels have been of the high rate of bloodshed, kidnap/abduction linked with the incessant cult attacks in the of residents and the raping of women. The region [6,7,8]. atrocity being committed in the Syrian War can be equated to the senseless carnage of killings The prevailing cultic activities have created associated with cult violence in Niger Delta insecurity in the region, thereby driving away region. One could wonder what would have both local and foreign investors. This has greatly precipitated the menace. affected the economy of the region which is rich

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in crude oil. According to Alapiki et al. [9], the represents government’s effort to reconcile the insecurity in the Niger Delta forced many difference between the state and the people, and multinational oil companies to abandon their reconstitute social contract. The exercise is operational bases. Consequently, many intended to pardon those cultists once they gave International Oil Companies (IOCs) such as Shell up their arms and embrace peace and the Petroleum Development Company (SPDC), rehabilitation program. At the end of the program, Mobile Oil Company initially operated in the area a total of 23, 160 cult members from different cult have consistently sold off their assets and groups surrendered their arms and embraced the relocated their bases. Apart from the foreigners, program in Rivers State while a total of 3, 073 locals also suffer varying degrees of attack from cultists embraced amnesty in Imo State in 2016. the cultists which include being kidnapped, Unexpectedly, the violence persisted after the robbed, rapped; passenger boats and vehicles amnesty declaration, increasing the risk of cult hijacked; residential houses burnt and people violence and overwhelming the capacity of the machetted, shot and killed. The situation is respective States Government to contain. At this leaving many residents in fear, and security time, the Government of Rivers State solicited agencies helpless with grave implications on the the support of the Federal Government for a means of livelihood of the people and the large scale military intervention, as well as development of the region. According to announced a bounty of N840 million for provision Imhabekhai [10], no meaningful development can of any information that could lead to arrest of the take place in an atmosphere of insecurity. cult gangs terrorizing the State [15]. With the definition of disaster as an occurrence disrupting More so, the humanitarian crisis occasioned by the moral conditions of existence and causing a cult attacks is alarming, yet has not received level of suffering that exceeds the capacity of government attention as the nation’s response adjustment of the affected community, [16], the agency, National Emergency Management call for external support showed that the menace Agency (NEMA) has failed to provide emergency has exceeded the adjustment capacity of the services and the needed humanitarian State government, to deal with using its own assistance to ameliorate the suffering of the resources. victims. With many residents being displaced and sacked from their homes, families separated, 1.1 Purpose of the Study youths killed and many incarcerated in prisons or police custody, houses burnt and properties The study analyzes the effectiveness of amnesty destroyed, the human cost of the menace is program as a response tool in containing impact incalculable. The situation is impacting on social of cult related activities in Niger Delta Region. cohesion, availability of labour, social order, The main objectives are to supposedly; population growth of the youths as well as increasing immorality and crime rate, thereby i. Examine the magnitude of cult impact in threatening food sufficiency in the region. As the study area. observed by Jennifer and Debarati (2013), the ii. Determine the relationship between immediate and long term effects of destructions frequency of cult attacks and fatalities in caused by conflicts on large populations the study area. constitute humanitarian crisis. iii. Examine the impact of cult activities before and after amnesty program in the study The escalation of cult related activities in Niger area. Delta region within the period impacted on Socio- economic activities, means of livelihood of the 1.2 Research Questions people and increased their suffering greatly [11]. The cult conflicts created an atmosphere of i. To what extent does the cult impact in the insecurity and a feeling of unsafe by residents study area? [12]. Many development projects were ii. Is there relationship between cult attacks abandoned as contractors flee the project sites. and fatalities in the study area? iii. What is the cult impact before and after the In response to its containment, the State amnesty program? Governments of Rivers and Imo respectively offered an amnesty/disarmament program to the 1.3 Hypotheses armed cultists to surrender their weapons and repent from the crime [13]. According to Joab- The hypotheses that were tested in this research Peterside et al. [14], amnesty program are;

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1. There is a statistically significant charts, graphs, means, correlations and student’s relationship between cult attacks and t-test were used to analyze the data. fatalities resulting from cult related Taro Yamene’s formula is expressed as: activities in the study area. 2. There is a statistically significant difference n = in the magnitude of cult attacks before and ()

after the amnesty program. where 3. There is a statistically significant difference in the magnitude of cult fatalities before n = sample size and after the amnesty program. N = Actual (target) population = significant level (5%) 2. MATERIALS AND METHODS n = ,, = 399.83 ,,(.)

The design of the study was a cross sectional 2.1 Study Area survey. The study was carried out in two states out of the nine states that make up the Niger This study was conducted in Imo and Rivers Delta region. The states were purposively States which are the two Niger Delta States that chosen because of their administration of granted amnesty to cultists in 2016. The Niger amnesty program to cultists in 2016. Out of the Delta is located along the Atlantic coast which 50 LGAs that make up the two selected states, a forms the southern boundary of Nigeria. The total of 20 LGAs where the amnesty took place region has an estimated area of about 70,000 2 were chosen for this study. Furthermore, km and is one of the world’s largest deltas. It is communities with high prevalence of cult attacks located in the central part of southern Nigeria o 1 o 1 in the amnesty year were selected to give a total between lat 5 33 49ʺ N and 6 31 38ʺ E in the of 36 communities which were used for the North. Its Western boundary is given as Benin o 1 o 1 study. Taro Yamene’s formula was used to select 5 44 11ʺN and 5 03 49ʺE and its Eastern 1 a sample size of 400. Both primary and boundary is Imo River 4°27 16ʺ N and secondary sources of data were used. Data 7°35127ʺE. The 2017 projected population of the analysis was done using mainly secondary data Niger Delta is 44, 229, 729, comprising the total collected from the Nigeria police. Statistical population of the nine [9] states that make up the techniques such as frequencies percentages, political Niger Delta. The states are Abia,

Table 1. States and LGAs with amnesty for cultists in Niger Delta

States Number of LGAs with Amnesty LGAs with Amnesty Imo 2 1. Oguta 2. Ohaji/Egbema Rivers 18 1. Abua/Odual 2. Ahoada East 3. Ahoada West 4. Akuku-Toru 5. Andoni 6. Asari-Toru 7. Bonny 8. Degema 9. Elema 10. Emuoha 11. Etche 12. Gokana 13. Ikwerre 14. Khana 15. Obio/Akpor 16. Ogba/Egbema/Ndoni 17. Port Harcourt City 18. Tai Source: Nigerian Police and Researcher’s Field work, 2018

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Fig. 1. Rivers State with all L.G.As with Amnesty programme and selected communities (Source: Go To School Ltd, 2018)

Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, Cross River, Delta, as at 2006. The region represents about Edo, Imo, Ondo and Rivers, with a 12% of Nigeria’s total surface area total of 112,110 square kilometers of land [17].

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Fig. 2. Imo State with L. G. as with Amnesty programme and selected communities (Source: Go To School Ltd, 2018)

3. LITERATURE REVIEW Amnesty program in November, 2016, a total of 3,028 cultists from Imo State and a total of 3.1 Overview of Disarmament Policy for 22,430 cultists from Rivers State respectively Cultists by Imo and Rivers States embraced the program and surrendered their Governments arms, comprising assorted rifles, ammunitions and explosives of various dimensions. The Most States in Niger Delta region such as Imo governors separately described the exercises as and Rivers States Government are not relenting very successful. Months after, the menace in their stride to end cultism. Consequently, the resurfaced, became worse and this time administration of Governor Rochas Okorocha of spreading to other areas. Feared by the massive Imo State offered a 60 days amnesty to cultists in killings and destruction of properties that the state effective from 14th September,2019 characterized the cult-clashes in the region, while that of Governor Wyesom Wike of Rivers many residents fled their homes and took State offered a 60 – day amnesty program to the temporary shelters in unofficial locations in cultists between September 16 and primar y schools and churches, while some November 15, 2016. The exercise is intended to relocated to meet their relatives and friends living pardon those cultists once they gave up their in the State capitals of the two states. The level arms and embraced peace and the rehabilitation of hardship heightened in the communities as program. The Amnesty for the cultists residents whose main sources of subsistence are included unconditional pardon, disarmament, farming and fishing became displaced. It became rehabilitation programme (skill acquisition difficult to go to farms. According to Onoyume training, education) and cash payments to those [18] cultists made it impossible for women to go who laid down their arms and renounce cult to farms. Those who dared them are raped and membership. During the conclusion of the dehumanized.

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Months after the unconditional pardon and to assist the ex-agitators reinsertion into the disarmament phases, the governments of the society, selection for different aspect of skill two states could not commence the rehabilitation acquisition training within and outside the and cash payments phases, thereby creating country, and rehabilitation that will include job doubts on the sincerity of the program. At the placement credit scheme and scholarship. Both moment, the government appears helpless as noted that one goal of amnesty is disarmament cult violence still ravages, inflicting untold which suggests curbing the sources of strength hardship on residents. One could wonder what and power of the militants which is the availability propels them to engage in such massacre of guns. But the amnesty failed to mop up the activities that characterize this organization. weapons. Another factor is that the amnesty Therefore, these are the facts that gave rise for failed to recognize the existence of powerful this study. This research seeks to build data on occult which sustained militancy. As identified by the state of community-based cult violence in Alapiki et al. [21], some of the hindrances to the Niger Delta, why youth join cults, success of amnesty as a response tool to formative/membership recruitment pattern, the address violence include exclusion of some ex- risk factors and attractions/dynamics that drive militants and community members, hijack of the cults and increase youth’s propensity to join cult exercise by political elites, corruption and poor groups as well as level of devastations cause by implementation of the program. the cult menace in terms of magnitude of attacks and fatalities with a view to prescribing According to Imongan and Ikelegbe [22], containment measures. amnesty is a guarantee of exemption from prosecution and pardon from punishment for 3.2 Conceptualization of Analysis of certain criminal, rebel and insurgent actions Amnesty Program hitherto committed usually against the state. It indemnifies affected persons in terms of safety Burg (2003), noted that an amnesty can be and protection from punitive actions, retributions declared when the authority decides that bringing and associated losses. An amnesty most often citizens into compliance with the law is more time is usually within a specific time during which important than punishing them for the past offenders admit crime and take advantage of the offence. Amnesty is a legislative or executive Act general pardon [23] disclosed that amnesty which enables a state to grant pardon to those entails forgiveness and automatic freedom from who may have been guilty of an offence against any form of prosecution within a stipulated period it and to restore them to the positions of of acceptance. innocence. It includes more than pardon, in as much as it obliterates all illegal remembrance of Buanholzer [24] viewed amnesty as a program the offence [19]. Amnesty promotes consisting of Disarmament; Demobilization, and reconciliation between offenders and society, Reintegration (DDR) which describes a cluster of prevents expensive prosecution, especially when post-conflict interventions that is focused on massive members of violators are involved, and collecting arms, neutralizing combatants, could also enable alleged violators of the law reintegrate, legitimate ex-combatants into the who had hitherto eluded the authorities to come armed forces or civilian life, and preventing a forward for reconciliation [19]. return to armed conflict. Banholzer (2014) affirmed that DDR has been used and has Ikoh and Ukpong [20] identified amnesty program achieved some level of success in mitigating as a strategy for solving crisis issues and reduce armed conflicts and sustaining peace in many loss of lives and destruction of properties arising conflict-ridden countries, including Rwanda, DR from the crises and therefore highlighted its Congo, Uganda, Ethiopia, Somlia, Sierra Leone, components as Disarmament, Demobilization Liberda, Russiua, India and Bosnia. The amnesty and Reintegration (DDR) which are designed to declaration to the Niger Delta Militants by the achieve repentance from militants, cultists or Federal Government of Nigeria in June, 2009 gangs. Disarmament consists of the collection was designed to draw out militants from the and destruction of arms, ammunition, explosives creeks to engage them in skill acquisition training and light and heavy weapons, while and rehabilitation, end violence and pave the demobilization includes disarming and way for economic development of the region. dismantling camps. The reintegration consists of The program was intended to checkmate several phases: - the initial camping for briefing, violence but the author found that despite the registration and payment of monetary assistance initial acceptance of the amnesty package by the

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militants, the program failed and violence 4.3 Line Graph and Bar Chart of the persisted owing to its poor implementation, Yearly Distribution of Cult Killing and subsequent abandonment and rejection, Attacks in the LGAs withholding of arms and ammunition by some militants who felt that commodification of Fig. 5 shows as the years go, there is an upward violence will fetch them better pecuniary gain trend in the distribution of cult killings and attacks than embracing amnesty. The research revealed in the LGAs, while Fig. 6 reflects significant that the consideration of the pecuniary benefits difference between yearly cult killings and that could be earned by militants from political attacks in the LGAs. Also, to justify these, we thuggery, hired assassination, oil bunkering conducted correlation and paired t-tests between which are the commodified militant variables each LGAs in Table 4. were push factors to rejecting the amnesty and that the prevalence of the variables Table 4 shows that all yearly distribution between were influenced by ownership of guns/ cult killings and attacks in the LGAs have ammunition. relationships (or correlation). However, the paired t-test conducted for significant 4. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION difference at 0.05 probability level shows significance in all yearly comparisons of cult Table 2 shows that 2018 witnessed the highest killings and attacks except in 2014, 2016 and incidents of cult attacks with 109 cases. This is 2017. followed by 2017 with 105 cases, 2015 with 90 cases and 2016 with 82 cases while 2010, 2009, 4.4 Hypotheses Testing and 2011 had 33, 34, and 53 cases respectively. On cult fatalities, 2017 had the highest fatalities 4.4.1 Hypothesis one with 92 deaths. This is followed by2018 with 77 deaths, 2016 with 68 deaths and 2015 with 57 The already formulated hypothesis is stated in deaths while 2010, 2009 and 2011 had 13, 16 the alternate form (H ) and was evaluated and 20 deaths respectively. A total of 681 cult 1 against its form (Ho) as stated below. The attacks and 456 cult fatalities were recorded in hypothesis was tested -using Pearson’s Product the area within the period of ten years from 2009- Correlation (rxy) statistical test. 2018.

Ho: There is no statistically significant 4.1 Comparisons of Cult Killings and relationship between cult attacks and fatalities Attacks in the Study Area (2009-2018) resulting from cult related activities in the study area. The percentages of cult killing and attacks shown in Table 3 is used in plotting the line H1: There is a statistically significant relationship graph and bar chart in Figs. 3 and 4 to between cult attacks and fatalities resulting from illustrate the percentage distribution of cult cult related activities in the study area. impact in terms of fatalities and attacks in the study area. The Pearson’s Product Moment Correlation was employed to test this hypothesis. The result 4.2 Line Graph and Bar Chart of the showed that there was a statistically significant Percentage Distribution of Cult Killing difference between cult attacks and fatalities in and Attacks in the LGAs the study area over a ten year period, with r = 0.83 at 99% probability level. This implies that Figs. 3 and 4 show the percentage distribution of 82.7% of cult fatalities were as a result of cult cult killings and attacks in the LGAs as tabulated attacks in the study area. in Table 3, with Ahoada East, Emohua, Etche, Ikwerre, Obio/Akpor, Port Harcourt and 4.4.2 Hypothesis two Tai seem to show higher percentage of cult killings than cult attacks. In addition, cult attacks The already formulated hypothesis is stated in have higher percentage distribution in Ohaji- alternate form (H1) and was evaluated against /Egbema, Oguta, Ogba/Egbema/Ndoni, Andoni, its alternate form (H1) as stated below. Asari –Toru Eleme and Degema than cult The hypothesis was tested using student’s killings. t-test.

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Table 2. Magnitude of cult impact from 2009-2018

Year Cult attacks Cult fatalities 2009 34 16 2010 33 13 2011 53 20 2012 55 30 2013 64 28 2014 57 55 2015 90 57 2016 82 68 2017 105 92 2018 109 77 Total 681 456 Source: Nigerian Police and Researcher’s Field Work

Table 3. Percentage between cult killing and attacks in the LGAs

LGAs with amnesty Cult killing (%) Cult attacks (%) ABUA/ODUAL 3.07 3.38 AHOADA EAST 5.48 4.70 AHOADA WEST 2.63 3.08 AKUKU-TORU 2.63 3.08 ANDONI 4.17 4.41 ASARI-TORU 2.41 3.67 BONNY 1.54 1.91 DEGEMA 2.19 3.52 ELEME 3.07 3.67 EMOHUA 13.38 9.10 ETCHE 4.61 4.26 GOKANA 1.10 3.23 IKWERRE 7.46 4.70 KHANA 3.73 3.82 OBIO/AKPOR 7.46 3.67 OGBA/EGBEMA/ANDONI 5.04 5.29 OGUTA 10.09 12.92 OHAJI/EGBEMA 10.31 13.66 PORT HARCOURT 7.46 6.02 TAI 2.19 1.91 Source: Researcher’s Data Analysis, 2019

16.00

e 14.00 g

a 12.00 t

n 10.00

e 8.00 c r 6.00 e

P 4.00 2.00 0.00

CULT KILLING (%) CULT ATTACKS (%)

Fig. 3. Line graph of the percentage distribution of cult killing and attacks in the LGAs

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14.00

e 12.00 g

a 10.00 t

n 8.00 e

c 6.00 r

e 4.00 P 2.00 0.00 … … …

I I I L E Y T T E T E T R A A A A A A U U A M N N S S A R R R T H N R R O U N N T M E M M E A O O R C U O O U P N A A E H O O B E E E E T D D P P K L

D T K G W T H O B O G G

E - - E N A A N I O K W B O O E E G A / U / M A / A R D K E G D I D K E O A A / A A I I A U S B U J B O K O A B A G H O A H A H O A A O

CULT KILLING (%) CULT ATTACKS (%)

Fig. 4. Bar chart of the percentage distribution of cult killings and attacks across the LGAs

120

100

Y 80 C N E

U 60 Q

E CULT KILLING R F 40 CULT ATTACKS 20

0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 YEARS

Fig. 5. Line graph of the yearly distribution of cult killing and attacks in the LGAs

120

100

Y 80 C N E

U 60 Q

E CULT KILLING R F 40 CULT ATTACKS 20

0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 YEARS

Fig. 6. Bar chart of the yearly distribution of cult killing and attacks in the LGAs

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Table 4. Correlation and paired t-tests between yearly cult killings and attacks in the LGAs with amnesty program (2009-2018)

LGAs Mean Std. Std. error Correlation Sig. Mean Std. Std. error mean t-test Sig. deviation mean differences deviation (p-values) CULT ATTACKS 2009 1.80 1.473 0.329 0.754 0.000 1.0 1.026 0.229 4.359 0.000 CULT KILLING 2009 0.80 0.768 0.172 CULT ATTACKS 2010 1.45 1.191 0.266 0.424 0.062 0.8 1.105 0.247 3.238 0.004 CULT KILLING 2010 0.65 0.745 0.167 CULT ATTACKS 2011 2.50 2.646 0.592 0.920 0.000 1.5 1.670 0.373 4.016 0.001 CULT KILLING 2011 1.00 1.124 0.251 CULT ATTACKS 2012 2.85 3.183 0.712 0.909 0.000 1.4 1.872 0.418 3.226 0.004 CULT KILLING 2012 1.50 1.573 0.352 CULT ATTACKS 2013 3.20 4.162 0.931 0.947 0.000 1.8 1.824 0.408 4.414 0.000 CULT KILLING 2013 1.40 2.703 0.604 CULT ATTACKS 2014 3.00 3.026 0.677 0.478 0.033 0.3 3.537 0.791 0.316 0.755 CULT KILLING 2014 2.75 3.782 0.846 CULT ATTACKS 2015 4.50 3.749 0.838 0.900 0.000 1.7 1.843 0.412 4.003 0.001 CULT KILLING 2015 2.85 2.519 0.563 CULT ATTACKS 2016 4.05 3.395 0.759 0.717 0.000 0.7 2.777 0.621 1.047 0.308 CULT KILLING 2016 3.40 3.885 0.869 CULT ATTACKS 2017 5.25 3.537 0.791 0.740 0.000 0.7 2.925 0.654 0.994 0.333 CULT KILLING 2017 4.60 4.321 0.966 CULT ATTACKS 2018 5.45 4.211 0.942 0.740 0.000 1.6 2.854 0.638 2.507 0.021 CULT KILLING 2018 3.85 3.468 0.776 CULT ATTACKS 34.05 21.975 4.914 0.827 0.000 11.3 12.686 2.837 3.966 0.001 CULT KILLING 22.80 15.282 3.417 Footnote: significant at 5% Source: Researcher’s Data Analysis, 2019

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Table 5. Correlation matrix on cult attacks and fatalities in the study area from 2009-2018

Correlations Cultattacks Cultfatalities Cultattacks Pearson Correlation 1 .827** Sig. (2-tailed) .000 N 20 20 Cultfatalities Pearson Correlation .827** 1 Sig. (2-tailed) .000 N 20 20 **. Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed)

Ho: There is no statistically significant difference mitigating the impact of violent crimes arising in the magnitude of cult attacks before and after from gang wars or cult related activities so as to the amnesty program. engender sustainable peace in the oil rich Niger Delta region of Nigeria. The program should H1: There is a statistically significant difference in have been complemented with social programs, the magnitude of cult attacks before and after the rehabilitation, deradicalization and massive amnesty program. engagement of the youths in productive ventures through provision of employment and skill The student’s t-test statistical technique was acquisition programs. According to Dudu and employed to test this hypothesis. The test relied Odalonu (2016), amnesty declaration for militants on secondary data on frequency of cult attacks in Niger Delta by the Federal Government in over a period of 10 years (2009-2018) across 2009 failed to resolve arms conflict rather led to LGAs where government’s amnesty for cultists emergency of new militants groups in the region. was administered between September and November, 2016 as shown in Table 2. To test the 4.4.3 Hypothesis three hypothesis, 3 years frequency of cult attacks before the amnesty (2013-2015) was compared H0: There is no statistically significant difference with 3 years frequency of cult attacks after the in the fatalities resulting from cult attacks before amnesty (2016-2018). Both samples were and after the amnesty program. subjected to student’s t-test as shown in Table 6. The result showed that at 58 degrees of freedom H1: There is a statistically significant difference in (df), the calculated student’s “t” value of 2.53 is the fatalities resulting from cult attacks before greater than the critical student’s t- value of 2.01 and after the amnesty program. at 0.05 probability level. Since the t-calculated value is greater than the t-tabulated, the null Testing of this hypothesis was done using hypothesis (Ho) is rejected and the alternate student’s t-test statistical technique. The hypothesis which says that “there is a statistically secondary data used to carryout this test was significant difference in the magnitude of cult based on the number of deaths recorded from attacks before and after the amnesty program” is cult attacks over a period of 10 years (2009- accepted. Also, the mean of cult attack before 2018) within the LGAs where government the amnesty (MB) is 2.13 while the mean after the amnesty declaration took place between amnesty (MA) is 3.20. Since MB< MA, cult attacks September and November 2016 as presented in were higher after the amnesty than before the Table 2. The analysis basically considered death amnesty. This implies that despite the amnesty toll for 3 years before the amnesty (2013-2015) the magnitude of cult attacks increased. This and death toll for 3 years after the amnesty could be attributed to the inability of the (2016-2018). Both samples were subjected to government to fully demobilize, rehabilitate and student’s t-test as shown in Table 7. The result reintegrate the repentant cultists as well as showed that at 58 degrees of freedom (df), the engage them in meaningful things, which forced calculated student’s “t” value of 2.41 is greater them to relapse and resort to aggressive than the critical student’s “t” value of 2.01 at 0.05 violence. This suggests that the areas are still at probability level. Since the calculated student’s t- high risk of more cult attacks in the coming years value is greater than the critical student’s t- if urgent step is not taken. This research value, the null hypothesis (Ho) is rejected while therefore deduced that mere declaration of the alternate hypothesis which says that “there is amnesty is not an effective response tool for a statistically significant difference in the fatalities

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Table 6. Summary of student’s “t” test statistics for cult attacks before and after amnesty

Levene’s test t-test for equality of means t-test For Equality of Means equality of 95% confidence internal of variance difference F Sig. t df Sig. Mean Std. error Lower Upper (2-tailed) difference difference Equal variances 3.254 .076 2.533 58 .014 -1.067 .421 -1.910 -.224 Number assumed of attacks Equal variances 2.533 46.832 .015 -1.067 .423 -1.914 -.219 not assumed t-calculated value = -2.533, t- tabulated value at 58 df and 0.05 probability = 2.01; sig. (2-tailed) Source: Researcher’s Data Analysis, 2019

Table 7. Summary of student’s “t” test statistics for fatalities of attacks before and after amnesty

Levene’s test equality of t-test for equality of means t-test for equality of means variance 95% confidence internal of difference F Sig. t df Sig. Mean Std. Error Lower Upper (2-tailed) difference Difference Equal variances 8.178 .006 2.406 58 .019 -1.333 .554 -2.443 -.224 assumed Fatalities Equal variances 2.406 35.948 .021 -1.333 .554 -2.457 -.209 not assumed t-calculated value = -2.406, t- tabulated value at 58 df and 0.05 probability = 2.01; sig. (2-tailed) Source: Researcher’s Data Analysis, 2019

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resulting from cult attacks before after the could be attributed to the poor implementation of amnesty program” is accepted. This means that the program and the persistent use of the cult there is statistically significant difference in the groups by politicians to pursue their political fatalities (death toll) resulting from cult related ambitions. This research corroborates findings by activities before and after the amnesty. Also, Ikoh and Ukpong (2013) that amnesty could fail since mean of cult fatalities before amnesty (MB) to address violence due to poor implementation. is 1.37 and mean of cult fatalities after amnesty According to the authors in their study in Niger (MB) is 2.70, it implies that MB< MA. Therefore, Delta Region titled “the Niger Delta Crisis: cult fatalities were higher after amnesty than Taming Violence Beyond The Amnesty”, the before amnesty. The result shows that the amnesty declaration to the Niger Delta Militants amnesty program could not reduce the cult by the Federal Government of Nigeria in June, killings. Based on this finding, this research 2009 was designed to draw out militants from the therefore concludes that the amnesty program as creeks to engage them in skill acquisition training a response mechanism by government to contain and rehabilitation, end violence and pave the cult related activities in the study area w a y f o r e conomic development of the region. failed to yield desired result instead T h e authors found that despite the initial increased the negative consequences of the acceptance of the amnesty package by the menace. militants, the program failed and violence persisted owing to its poor implementation, The finding of this research work contradicts the subsequent abandonment and rejection, findings by Ikoh and Ukpong (2013) on their work withholding of arms and ammunition by some titled “The Niger Delta Crisis: Taming Violence militants who felt that commodification of Beyond the Amnesty” which posited that violence will fetch them better pecuniary gain amnesty program is a strategy for solving crisis than embracing amnesty. Also, as identified by issues and reducing loss of lives and A l a piki et al. (2015), some of the hindrances to destruction of properties arising from the t h e s uccess of amnesty as a response tool to crisis. address violence include exclusion hijack of the exercise by political elites, corruption and poor In another development, the fact that yearly implementation of the program. Similarly, a study fatalities of cult attacks have continued to conducted by Imongan and Ikelegbe (2016) on increase despite the amnesty declaration means the amnesty program in the Niger Delta Region that more community youths are still joining the of Nigeria in 2009 title “Amnesty Program in cult groups. This could increase their vulnerability Nigeria: The impact and challenges in Post to cult related activities and the risk of suffering Conflict Niger Delta, Region” observed that the high casualties which by implication could amnesty program could not achieve the desired worsen cult impacts at a level capable of result, and that the post-conflict era of the Niger suppressing their present capacity to cope with Delta region witnessed various kinds of social the menace. unrest which has hampered development ranging from kidnapping, illegal oil 4.5 Discussion bunkering, sea piracy, bombings, vandalism of oil pipelines, cult killings and other Findings of this research shows that two years crimes. after the amnesty (2017 and 2018), cult attacks increased to 105 in 2017 and 109 in 2018 5. SUMMARY compared to the number, 60 and 90 incidents, respectively recorded in 2014 and 2015, two This research found that from 2009-2018, a total years before amnesty. Furthermore, the research of 681 cases of cult attacks and 456 facilities finds that cumulatively, the number of deaths were recorded in the LGAs with amnesty were highest in 2017, which is the year following program. Two years after the amnesty, incidents the amnesty, with a total of 92 deaths across the of attacks and death toll increased became LGAs compare to the 57 recorded in 2015, which almost doubled. The research therefore found a is the year preceding amnesty. The implication is positive correlation between cult attacks and that the amnesty did not make any positive fatalities over a ten year period (2009-2018) and impact in reducing the cult impact (number of cult discovered that the yearly distribution of the two attacks and killings) in the study area. This variables was in upward trend despite the finding infers that the amnesty fails to mitigate amnesty. The research concluded that the cult impact since after its administration. This amnesty program of the government failed to

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