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Wednesday, January 16 2013

Somali President is in the , seeking to bolster US and international support for his government. The visit comes at an awkward time, after a high-profile but unsuccessful French commando raid south of on January 12 (to rescue a French intelligence officer held since 2009 by al-Shabaab). US President Barack Obama disclosed on January 13 that the US military had entered Somali airspace to provide technical support to the French mission. At least two French soldiers, and up to eight civilians, reportedly died in the raid. Somali Defence Minister Abdihakim Mohamud Fiqi subsequently criticised France for failing to inform the government of its plans.

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What next Impact The raid highlights the gap between domestic expectations for Hassan Sheikh's fledgling • The provisional government's provisional federal government to assert Somali sovereignty and restore security and the rule of legitimacy will hinge on delivery , and the reality of continued strong external influence in Somalia. The government will remain of economic improvements and dependent on external finance, undermining its efforts to chart an independent policy trajectory -- the rule of law in areas it despite rhetorical donor support for one. Security issues will remain the main driver of external controls. concern about Somalia.

• The failed raid underscores that Analysis al-Shabaab retains significant capacity, including intelligence Hassan Sheikh took office in September amid high expectations of a sharp break from the gathering capability. infighting and corruption which characterised the various phases of the Transitional Federal Government (TFG), in place from 2004-12 (see SOMALIA: Stark realities confront new president • The government will intensify - September 12, 2012). calls for financial support, although lingering corruption In part, these expectations were driven by perceptions that his defeat of his predecessor, Sheikh concerns will hinder flows of , in the parliamentary vote for the presidency, had been achieved in the face Western aid. of a major vote-buying effort by the outgoing president's camp. Initial perceptions that Hassan Sheikh's victory had been achieved without similar tactics have subsequently been dented.

Nevertheless, his administration is still seen as a departure from the TFG. Most of the key figures in his government -- including the prime minister, most members of cabinet and those advising him in the office of the presidency -- are new players. Moreover, most of the main factions that dominated the TFG are not represented -- including those associated with the signatories to the 'Roadmap' which led to the end of Transitional Federal Charter in August and the adoption of a new constitution.

Six pillars

The president has outlined his policy priorities in terms of "six pillars", spanning:

• stability in the country (rule of law and justice); mhtml:file://\\editbrusw1\prd$\adlib\temp\security_tops_president_policy_en.mht 29/01/13 Oxford Analytica - Security tops president's policy agenda in Somalia Page 2 of 3 • economic recovery; Outward signs of reform in • peace-building and removing the main drivers of conflict; Mogadishu should be balanced with an acknowledgment of the government's limited institutional • government capacity to improve service delivery; capacity

• international partnerships and closer ties with neighbours and allies; and

• national unity.

Service delivery and governance -- particularly the promotion of law and order and a transparent judiciary -- will be the benchmarks for popular evaluation of this government. However, in the near term, the administration's focus will continue to be on government finances and the security agenda.

Finances

Hassan Sheikh's Peace and Development Party was established in early 2011, more than a year before the elections and even before the Roadmap was agreed. Although it has some organisational capacity and support, in financial terms, neither the president nor his party were or are major players in the Somali political landscape.

Since the election, indications have emerged that his campaign was financed by borrowing from the Gulf States. The administration has made overtures for further support from the region, including in and , reportedly without progress.

On entering office, one of Hassan Sheikh's first priorities has been public finance -- he declared that he had found the treasury was completely empty. Early signals from the government have Progress has been slow on boosting focused on pressuring donors to open funding flows to the administration. The president's US trip Western financial support outside will include discussions in Washington and a visit to Minnesota -- home to a large Somali of security spending diaspora population -- where he will no doubt seek to encourage diaspora investment.

Security

The French raid has highlighted the continued capacity of al-Shabaab to threaten the government despite the group's territorial losses, which have continued as the peacekeeping mission (AMISOM) expands its footprint:

• AMISOM forces have pushed north from Mogadishu, taking control of Jowhar, and seeking to create a corridor between Mogadishu and Beledweyne near the Ethiopian border under government authority.

• Nevertheless, al-Shabaab is able to move through the rural areas, and has consolidated its position in northern Somalia through accessing security supply routes from .

• Clashes have been reported between al-Shabaab and the administration's forces -- although the extent of al-Shabaab involvement is open to question.

• In January, Puntland President controversially extended his term for one year (to January 2014), ostensibly as part of the state's constitutional reform process, but not without criticism. Farole has blanketed all his opposition as linked to al-Shabaab, which risks increasing support for the militant group.

In southern and central Somalia, international and regional support for AMISOM is expected to continue, with the mission's mandate to be renewed in March (see EAST AFRICA: Regional forces have varying Somalia aims - December 19, 2012). However, AMISOM is expensive; it draws the bulk of international funding for Somalia -- although little of this actually reaches the Somali government (an exception being training for the forces of the Somali National Army).

mhtml:file://\\editbrusw1\prd$\adlib\temp\security_tops_president_policy_en.mht 29/01/13 Oxford Analytica - Security tops president's policy agenda in Somalia Page 3 of 3 EU and other donors will be watching carefully for signs that they could begin to draw down financial support. Hassan Sheikh likely perceives this risk: one of his first trips abroad was to Turkey, where he secured agreement for Turkish support to the Somali military (see SOMALIA: Turkish intervention makes waves - April 16, 2012).

National unity

The 'national unity' pillar is reflected in multiple agendas. Yet despite continued focus on promoting defections from al-Shabaab, the most pressing concern is work on the constitution on defining federalism and the powers of the Mogadishu administration:

• Puntland. Hassan Sheikh has strained relations with Puntland and exacerbated these by not selecting a prime minister from the region. This has added to the local tensions there over Farole's political manoeuvring. It is the most functional and viable regional administration that in principle retains a loyalty to Mogadishu.

• 'Jubbaland'. In the south, relations with the aspiring 'Jubbaland' administration starting to take shape in Kismayo have thawed slightly. A delegation including Interior Minister Abdikarim Hussein Guled -- one of Hassan Sheikh's closest advisers -- visited Kismayo at end-2012 to discuss the federal government's role in the establishment of Jubbaland. The Ras Kambooni forces, led by Ahmed Madobe and backed by the Kenyan military (which is incorporated in AMISOM), are leading the process.

Tensions will remain high. A reported memorandum of understanding agreed in December within the Intergovernmental Authority on Development in December, which gave Ethiopia and a role in supporting the Jubbaland process, has drawn criticism

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