SYRIAN GOVERNMENT FORCES SURROUND WESTERN DAR’A FLASH REPORT 1 February 2021

4th Division deploys around Central Committees from Dar’a al-Balad, western, and eastern Dar‘a (representing former western Dar’a opposition forces), formally rejected the On 21 January, the Syrian Arab Army’s 4th demands. Division began to bring heavy military The current escalation comes as part of a series reinforcements to their checkpoints within the of government-issued threats directed at Hrak in Muzireb subdistrict, on the roads leading to the November last year, in August, and Tafas main population centers in Mzeireb, Tal Shihab, and Dar‘a Al Balad in May, as well as an offensive Yadudeh and Tafas city. The reinforcements on As-Sanamayn in March that saw included more than 10 tanks, 4 BM21 rocket units storm the town and enforce a launchers, military vehicles, and hundreds of reconciliation/evacuation agreement on former fighters, most of which were transported via the opposition fighters. The recent besiegement of —Dar’a highway. western Dar‘a appears to be a long-term This development came just before a 28 January strategy taken by the Syrian government to deadline set by the government for former force towns and cities in western Dar’a to opposition forces to meet a series of demands, conduct new rounds of reconciliation dictated on 25 January, under threat of a military offensive. However, one day before the deadline, MERCY CORPS HUMANITARIAN ACCESS SYRIAN GOVERNMENT BESIEGES WESTERN DAR’A  1 agreements with more favorable terms than that handed over, and that government military units initially conducted in July 2018.1 be allowed to conduct searches in the city. Government officers further added that the demands should be met by 28 January or they would storm western Dar‘a. Notably, Russian officers present at the meeting, ostensibly to mediate, threatened former-opposition forces with airstrikes if they did not adhere to the government’s demands, an unusual development in aggression. Despite government and Russian fighter jets flying at low altitude 4th Division tanks on the Damascus—Dar’a highway, January 2021. (Source; Horan Free over Dar‘a on 26 and 27 January as a warning, League). former-opposition fighters formally rejected the Dar‘a Central Committees government’s demands one day before the deadline. Following the rejection, local sources reject government demands stated that the government later extended the Local sources reported that Central Committees deadline to the morning of 1 February. from across western Dar’a and Syrian government representatives, with Russians Former-opposition fighters present as ‘mediators’, had met twice, on 20 then rebuff 4th Division advance 25 January. During the meeting of the 20 On the ground, military activity was also heating January, the government had made three main up. On 24 January, following the reinforcement demands; that medium and heavy weapons be of checkpoints, the Syrian Arab Army’s 4th handed over, that former opposition leader Division attempted to advance against former- Mo’ad al-Zo’bi be sent to the opposition-held opposition locations in the southern outskirts of north, and the eviction of individuals not from Tafas city. Local sources reported that soldiers of the governorate from the area. the 4th Division targeted the headquarters of By 25 January, following clashes in response to commander Khaldoun al-Zo’bi and engaged in the 4th Brigade’s reinforcements, most of the direct clashes with former-opposition fighters, government’s demands had changed: They now resulting in the wounding of four civilians and the demanded that, as opposed to just Al-Zo’bi, six death of more than four 4th Division fighters. In former-opposition commanders also had to response, a counter attack was launched, and relocate to the north, that all administrative former-opposition forces regained control over buildings in Tafas be moved under government four positions which had been taken by the 4th supervision, that medium and heavy weapons be Division between Mzeireb and Tafas during their

1 On July 2018, the Syrian government conducted a soft reconciliation agreement with opposition forces in specific areas in southern . The agreement stipulated that; opposition fighters would reconcile, and after which they would work for government intelligence and security agencies and maintain actual control of their areas; government institutions would be allowed to re-enter the areas; opposition fighters would hand over their weapons; the government would hand over detainees; and that government forces withdraw to the pre-2011 positions. Tafas city (Mzeireb subdistrict) was one such location however is now considered to be a stronghold for former-opposition forces and a destination for deserters and wanted individuals. MERCY CORPS HUMANITARIAN ACCESS SYRIAN GOVERNMENT BESIEGES WESTERN DAR’A  2 advance on the city. In conjunction with the and fight with Tafas, while residents of Dar‘a al- attacks in Tafas, the 4th Division also attempted Balad and Jasim held protests. to advance in Yadudeh township. Local sources reported that the opposition fighters in the area On the evening of 28 January, the date of the were able to repel the attempt, killing more than government’s initial deadline, the supporters four 4th Division fighters and damaging one tank across the governorate made good on their during the clash. pledge and launched a series of attacks against government positions. Former-opposition The Central Committees issued a statement fighters attacked government checkpoints in calling on former-opposition forces to be placed Nawa, Eastern Maliha, Sahm El Golan, Karak, and on high-alert to counter the Syrian government's Eastern Ghariyeh with no casualties being attacks. The statement read: “This morning, the reported yet. The government has reportedly 4th Division burned houses, stole people’s not retaliated. property, their tanks shelled the outskirts of the city striking civilians and schools. We call for all Tafas Tribal clashes precede free men in the western area to be put on high current confrontation alert to stand unified against the policy of arrogance and humiliation which aims to bring In another aspect of growing tension in western the people of Horan (Dar‘a) to their knees.” Dar’a, government forces have been watching a Following the statement, former opposition tribal feud brewing in Tafas with interest; the fighters from various towns and cities across the feud escalated into violence on 26 December governorate, including Jizeh, Hrak, Bisr Elharir, when it was reported that members of the Zo’bi Ankhal, Lajat, and Beit Ara, published pictures tribe attacked a member of the opposing Kiwan pledging their support and willingness to stand tribe, seriously wounding him. Retaliations and counter-retaliations have since led to a full- blown armed combat between the tribes.

At around the same time, In the first week of January, media sources reported that disgruntled 4th Division officers met with the Dar‘a Central Committees, threatening to storm areas of western Dar‘a unless it was able to deal with three main issues; firstly, the Committee’s inability to maintain security in their areas; secondly, the increased number of assassinations of government soldiers, particularly from the 4th Division; and finally the Former opposition fighters in Beit Ara pledge solidarity with Tafas, Yadudeh, and Mzeireb lack of cooperation by former-opposition residents (Source; Horan Free League) fighters in uprooting extremists, including

MERCY CORPS HUMANITARIAN ACCESS SYRIAN GOVERNMENT BESIEGES WESTERN DAR’A  3 fighters from ISIS and Hurras ad-Din, from Impending government 2 villages in western Dar‘a. offensive? Tribal clashes then intensified, with the most Based on the Central Committees’ rejection of noteworthy taking place on 10 and 14 January. the government’s initial demands, there are two The 14 January clashes were notable in their possible outcomes from the current ferocity, lasting over ten hours with rocket- confrontation. Firstly, government forces may propelled grenades (RPGs) and mortars being carry out their threat and conduct a military used. offensive. Secondly, a new proposal may be Local sources have reported that the submitted enabling both sides to find a government, despite a law and order mandate compromise, ultimately avoiding large scale and the threats made by the 4th Division, did not fighting. intervene. There is speculation that this is a At the time of writing, government specific tactic to both weaken the tribes, who are reinforcements had stopped arriving in the affiliated with the former opposition, by governorate, after the number of fighters and condoning lengthy clashes and deepening the military equipment in striking distance of feud, and to use the violence to legitimize the former-opposition strongholds were increased. need for Syrian government forces to stabilize The situation is increasingly tense, noting the the area. Local sources also noted that the Central Committees’ initial refusal to government had viewed the weapons being used government demands, the deadline being in the infighting with great interest, prompting extended until 1 February, and former them to demand they be handed over in later opposition fighters conducting governorate- meetings. wide attacks on checkpoints. Damascus however now now has firm control of the roads leading to western Dar‘a, has superior firepower, and more manpower than former-opposition forces. Unlike previous occasions, the Russians have seemingly moved from a mediatory role to that of an active participant as was made apparent with the threat of airstrikes they issued on 25 January.

However, although Damascus will be keen to demonstrate strength and remove potential for Clashes in Tafas city on 14 January between Kiwan dissent, there are several factors that may (جنوب السوري :and Zo’bi tribes (Source discourage the government from carrying out its threat. Firstly, a government offensive isn’t likely

2 Central Committees consider the government’s claim of ISIS and Hurras ad-Dinn presence in the governorate to be a false pretext for operations in the area. MERCY CORPS HUMANITARIAN ACCESS SYRIAN GOVERNMENT BESIEGES WESTERN DAR’A  4 to be contained to just one location. The likely in a bid to protect the status quo. Knowing government would have to fight on a each other’s red lines following two meetings, it governorate-wide scale, across western Dar‘a in is possible that both sides may find a Yadudeh, Mzeireb, Tafas, and Tal Shihab. The compromise. On 26 January rumors emerged show of solidarity for the former opposition, that a force from the Russian-backed Eighth coupled with the further clashes on the evening Brigade is getting ready to move to Tafas – the of the 28 January demonstrate that fighting may whether it would assist government forces in extend into eastern Dar‘a as well, with their offensive or whether they would be acting checkpoints across the governorate likely to be as mediation between both sides is yet to be targets. This could lead to a protracted and seen. The Eighth Brigade has previously had expensive confrontation, which the government involvement in past reconciliation agreements, would be at pains to avoid. and so it is possible that an alternative solution may be found. Indeed, with the recent extension Politically, the Russians’ have made clear a desire and the absence of an escalation by the for calm and order ahead of the 2021 Syrian government thus far, it may well be the case that presidential elections. Media sources reported in the government does not wish for a mid-January that the Russians had met with confrontation. Central Committee members or Central Committee members asking them to the Russians may be inclined to propose that cease anti-government activity and maintain former-opposition forces part of their weapons order, in exchange for the release of a large in addition to having the Russian-backed Eighth number of detainees and humanitarian aid. Brigade conduct the searches on behalf of the 3 Finally, a portion of the 4th Division force in government and maintain security in the area. Dar‘a is composed of former-opposition fighters, Such an agreement would not cross any redlines unlikely to be motivated to fight others who and may be acceptable for both sides. share their ideological leanings. On 27 January, local sources reported that the 4th Division had Violence likely to yield more ordered Battalion 645, primarily composed of suffering said fighters, to leave their positions on the Sahm While a potential military offensive on western El Golan—As-Shajara road and move closer to Dar‘a is still uncertain, the huge humanitarian Jlein nearer to the frontline. However, the impact it could have is. A government offensive fighters refused to move, leaving their officers to which employs heavy weapons, including follow the leadership’s or ders alone. artillery and tanks, in addition to airstrikes will Noting previous experiences in government prove highly damaging for western Dar‘a sieges, it is also likely that a military residents of Tafas, Mzeireb, and Yadudeh where confrontation may be avoided. The Central the heavy fighting is expected to take place, Committees have refused the government’s demands for the eviction of the six commanders,

3 The Eighth Brigade was previously part of agreements reached between the government and former-opposition fighters such as in the Jasim townsip. MERCY CORPS HUMANITARIAN ACCESS SYRIAN GOVERNMENT BESIEGES WESTERN DAR’A  5 Map: Internal migration of Tafas residents prior to government’s deadline (Source; HAT Syria) further damaging the remnants of service Local sources report that Dar’a governorate has provision infrastructure, overwhelming local approximately eight government hospitals and healthcare services, and causing a wave of five private hospitals. The total number of beds internal migration in said hospitals supposedly exceeds 1,000 – which is adequate space to cope with large Compared to eastern Dar‘a, whose numbers of wounded – however it is also infrastructure is somewhat intact, western Dar‘a reported that the hospitals, as is the situation infrastructure is already badly damaged from across government-held areas, are understaffed military operations conducted by government and underequipped, and so care is unlikely to be forces up until June 2018. With little to no sufficient. The situation is even grimmer when repairs conducted, the incoming governmental taking into consideration that hospitals are not institutions did not find decent infrastructure in accessible to all western Dar‘a residents. Local place to provide adequate service provision for sources stated that government hospitals residents of former-opposition held areas. outside of Tafas are unlikely to welcome Another military offensive would thus make life wounded former-opposition fighters or their much more difficult for residents, worsening relatives, who would also fear arrest by both the state of electricity and water supply government security and intelligence branches among others. located inside government hospitals. This leaves

MERCY CORPS HUMANITARIAN ACCESS SYRIAN GOVERNMENT BESIEGES WESTERN DAR’A  6 only Tafas National Hospital available to Sheikh Miskine, , Dael, and ’. It is western Dar’a residents. noticeable that the towns preferred are located east of the Tafas Central Committee’s area of Internal migration, which has already started in influence to areas that are under firmer anticipation of an offensive, is likely to increase government control and likely to be spared from with increased violence. Local sources have the Syrian Arab Army’s superior firepower. reported that hundreds of residents from Tafas Local sources estimate that an offensive would city have left to the government-held Dar‘a al- result in thousands of people migrating eastward Mahatta neighborhood in Dar‘a city, Atman, from Mzeireb, Yadudeh, and Tafas.

MERCY CORPS HUMANITARIAN ACCESS SYRIAN GOVERNMENT BESIEGES WESTERN DAR’A  7 Cover photo; Smoke rises following attacks on Dar’a, Syria. Source Muhammed Yusuf via Getty

CONTACT Nicholas Bodanac Humanitarian Access Team

[email protected] The Humanitarian Access Team (HAT) was established in Beirut in March 2015 in response to the collective challenges facing the remote humanitarian response in Syria. Successful humanitarian and development interventions require a nuanced and objective understanding of the human ecosystems in which these interventions occur. To this end, the HAT’s most important function is to collect, triangulate, synthesize, analyze and operationalize disparate data and information. Since 2015, HAT analysis has provided a forward-looking template for international interventions in Syria, and facilitated an increasingly nimble, adaptive, integrated, and ultimately impactful international response to the Syrian conflict.