Northamptonshire COVID-19 Weekly Surveillance Report

• National lockdown restrictions continue until Monday 29th March • A total of 578 Northamptonshire residents have tested positive for COVID-19 in the last week, 4% more than the previous week (and continues to rise) • Mixing between households continues to be the greatest cause of transmission locally • The age group with the most positive tests in the last week was 30 to 39 year olds for both men and women • Due to the impact of the COVID-19 vaccination in the elderly and most vulnerable people, the number of deaths has reduced in recent weeks

Data up to 14 March 2021 Four Step Roadmap: Four Tests along the Way

Step 1 Step 1 Step 2 Step 3 Step 4 th On Monday 8 March residents of Northamptonshire 8-29 Changes Not before Not before 17 May Not before and across England took the first stage of step one on March on 29 March 12 April *Review of social 21 June the four-step ‘roadmap’ out of lockdown. distancing National lockdown restrictions continue in place until Children back to Rule of 6 or 2 Opening of non- Most legal restrictions on Government hopes to be Monday 29th March and we must all remain vigilant. School/College households meet essential retail meeting others outdoors in a position to remove all outdoors will be lifted, although legal limits on social gatherings of over 30 contact people will remain illegal. Only when the government is sure that it is safe to Indoors, the ‘Rule of 6’ or move from one step to the next will the final 2 households will apply decision be made. The decision will be based on four tests: Outdoor Outdoor activity Funerals up to 30 Most businesses in all Government hopes to • The vaccine deployment programme continues recreation/exercise facilities open and mourners. but the highest risk reopen remaining successfully with one person formally organised Weddings, sectors will be able to premises, including • Evidence shows vaccines are sufficiently effective outside your outdoor sports receptions and reopen nightclubs, and ease the household commemorative restrictions on large in reducing hospitalisations and deaths in those events 15 events and performances vaccinated that apply in Step 3 • Infection rates do not risk a surge in Care home End of ‘stay at Hospitality Up to 30 people will be hospitalisations which would put unsustainable residents – one home’ rule but venues serve able to attend weddings, pressure on the NHS regular visitor work from home if people outdoors receptions and wakes, as • Assessment of the risks is not fundamentally can and no holidays well as funerals changed by new Variants of Concern

2 Step 1: Monday March 8 – 29th 2021

3 Everything We Do Is Stopping The Spread

 Test, Test, Test. If you’ve got COVID-19 symptoms, get tested as soon as possible to find out if you are positive. If you have a high temperature, continuous cough or loss of or change in sense of smell or taste, you should immediately self-isolate and book a PCR test. Tests can be booked on the Test and Trace app, online at nhs.uk/coronavirus, or by calling 119.

The following people now have access to FREE regular rapid lateral flow testing: adults who are unable to work from home, secondary school pupils and college students, staff of primary and secondary schools, nurseries and colleges, adults in households, childcare and support bubbles of nursery children, primary and secondary-age pupils and college students. Pupils in secondary schools and colleges will now get home testing kits from their school or college. Adults in their families, meanwhile, can get a COVID-19 test twice each week at a local test site or by collecting a home test kit from a test site. For more information, visit the national government website which is regularly updated with local information https://www.gov.uk/guidance/rapid- lateral-flow-testing-for-households-and-bubbles-of-school-pupils-and-staff. Remember: a negative test is not a free pass to ignore the guidance.

 Vaccinations are precious – let’s not waste them. If you receive an invite to get you jab then please honour the appointment. You may have read or heard in the news that a small number of countries in Europe have paused the roll out of the AstraZeneca vaccine due to reports of blood clots in a small number of people vaccinated. I want to reassure you that these pauses are purely precautionary whilst authorities in those countries investigate but both the World Health Organisation and the UK medicines regulator (MHRA) have made it clear that they have no concerns given the current available evidence. In the UK, more than 11 million people have already received at least one dose of the AstraZeneca vaccine and reports of blood clots so far are no greater than the number that we would naturally expect in the vaccinated population.

 Residents of Northamptonshire and across England must continue to ‘Stay at Home, Protect the NHS and Save Lives’ until March 29th. You may only leave the house for limited reasons permitted in law and mixing indoors with individuals other than household members or those in your care bubble is not permitted. Even when outdoors please leave the 2 metre safe distance and adhere to the mantra: Hands, Face, Space.

4 Keep your Distance

• As the weather continues to improve it’s important to remember to keep your distance from others, even when outdoors.

2 Metres

5 Rapid COVID-19 Testing • Seven COVID-19 Rapid Testing Centres are open in Northamptonshire for key workers who are not showing symptoms of COVID-19. Further sites across the county will open over the coming weeks. • The community based testing sites are at: • Danes Camp Leisure Centre, Northampton • Lodge Park Sports Centre and Hazelwood Neighbourhood Centre, Corby • Brackley Leisure Centre, South Northamptonshire • Redwell Leisure Centre, Wellingborough • Daventry Leisure Centre, Daventry • The University of Northampton, Northampton - restricted to use by students and university staff only from Monday 8th March • The test is called a Lateral Flow Test and involves a swab of the mouth and nose and provides a result within 30 minutes. • The aim of testing people who do not have COVID-19 symptoms is to identify those who may be infectious without being aware in order to reduce spread of the virus. If positive, the test means you are infectious and must start self-isolating at home immediately and complete 10 days of self-isolation. • The test does not tell you if you are COVID-free so all COVID-secure measures must be exercised even if you get a negative result. You must continue to follow COVID guidelines and remember to wash your hands, wear a face covering indoors and maintain a 2m distance from others. • Testing slots must be booked online in advance and priority is given to workers in the following sectors: Health or social care, transportation, education or childcare (if not receiving regular rapid tests via the workplace), essential shops, supermarkets or financial services, food production or processing, warehousing, packing or distribution, essential public sector services including waste, bin collections, security, construction, utilities or communications and agency workers. It is advisable for those people working in these sectors to take up the opportunity to get tested on a weekly basis to help to reduce the spread of the virus. • Information leaflets at the sites are available in English, Lithuanian and Romanian, Russian and Polish.

6 Got Symptoms? Get Tested

• To find out more information about local testing sites visit: Northamptonshire COVID-19 Testing Update.

• Tests can be booked online at NHS COVID-19 or by calling 119. Home testing kits can also be ordered subject to availability.

• It is vital that when you leave the house to be tested you must go straight to the testing centre and return home immediately to self- isolate until you get your results.

7 Total and Weekly Summary A total of 46,432 positive cases have been identified in Northamptonshire to date. Of this number, 578 were identified in the last week, 8th to 14th March 2021.

This graph shows the total number of people who have tested positive for COVID-19 in Northamptonshire each week since 21st December 2020. Weekly case numbers increased significantly during the course of December and into early January, however, cases have declined steadily over the last few weeks and the latest weekly case total is 58% lower than that seen in the week of 8th February 2021.

However, this week’s case total represents a slight increase of 4% when compared to the previous week. Although a small increase in the week of the report, numbers in recent days have started to climb more steeply. The latest week’s figures are likely to increase further as data for the most recent days are subject to reporting delays.

8 Rates of Cases by District and Borough

The data in this table shows us what the total and most recent week’s positive COVID-19 case numbers Cumulative Rate per Compared to Compared to for our districts and boroughs would look like if each rate per 100,000 5 county rate 5 England rate 5 Area area had the exact same population size (100,000). 100,000 to Mar to 11 Mar to 11 Mar Mar to 11 Mar 11 Mar 2021 Mar 2021 2021 2021 Northamptonshire’s infection rate per 100,000 th Northamptonshire 6,136 76.2 - Sig higher population for the most recent week up to 11 March is 76.2 (an increase of 6% compared to the Corby 7,267 162.0 Sig higher Sig higher previous week), which is significantly higher than the national average (58.6). Daventry 4,753 55.8 Similar Similar East Northamptonshire 4,721 75.1 Similar Similar All district and borough infection rates, except for South Northamptonshire’s, are significantly higher Kettering 5,639 94.3 Similar Sig higher than or similar to the national average. Northampton 7,760 66.8 Similar Similar Wellingborough, Kettering and Corby’s rates are significantly higher than the national average. South Northamptonshire 4,833 31.7 Sig lower Sig lower Wellingborough 5,882 77.8 Similar Sig higher Corby continues to have one of the highest case rates in England, despite decreasing case numbers in Source: Gov.uk Coronavirus Dashboard the last couple of weeks, cases have now started to *Please note that the word sig means ‘significant’, climb in recent days so people must continue to which is a statistical term that simply means that the adhere to the rules and try to reduce any risk of research is valid. transmission.

9 Total Cases by District and Borough

This table shows the total number of people who have Total cases Cases in week 8 Change from tested positive for COVID-19 up to 14th March 2021 in Area to 14 Mar Mar to 14 Mar previous each of Northamptonshire’s seven districts and boroughs. 2021 2021 week Although recent progress has been positive and case Northamptonshire 46,432 578 Increase numbers were reducing, Northamptonshire’s total Corby 5,304 136 Increase weekly case number shows an increase of 4% in the seven days to 14th March. Daventry 4,102 44 Decrease East Northamptonshire 4,499 84 Increase Corby, East Northamptonshire and South Kettering 5,758 70 Decrease Northamptonshire have also seen an increase in case numbers when compared to the previous week. Northampton 17,488 158 Decrease South Northamptonshire 4,574 27 Increase Please note that extreme caution must be applied when viewing week on week changes. To see the overall Wellingborough 4,707 59 Decrease changes in areas in context please see slides 17, 18 and 19.

10 Percentage changes in recent 7-day case rates

This chart shows percentage changes in case rates over the last 3 months up to 11th March 2021. Percentage changes are calculated by comparing to the previous non-overlapping 7-day period. It shows that Northamptonshire’s case rates increased rapidly in December and early January and have since been decreasing following the implementation of national lockdown policies. However, Northamptonshire has seen a slight increase in case rates in recent days.

* Data for the last 5 days are not displayed as they will be incomplete. Source: Gov.uk Coronavirus Dashboard

11 Rate of Weekly Lab Confirmed Cases

This graph includes all testing data. Recent data shows that Northamptonshire’s rate of cases in the last seven days remains above the England average, however the gap between the Northamptonshire and England rates has narrowed recently. Corby, East Northamptonshire, Kettering, Northampton and Wellingborough currently have weekly total rates above the England average.

All districts and boroughs have seen a rising or plateauing trend or increase in case rates in recent days.

Corby’s rate has seen a notable decrease in the last couple of weeks, however, in recent days, cases have started to rise and Corby now has the highest rate in England and the highest rate in the county

Source: Gov.uk Coronavirus Dashboard. by a wide margin. Kettering’s rate is currently the second highest in the county. * These are 7-day rolling total numbers of cases as a rate per 100,000 population – this is done to even out the fluctuations we see in testing volumes on weekdays vs weekends. 12 Recent Cases by Age and Gender

This graph shows the number of positive test results for COVID-19 in Northamptonshire over the last 28 days by gender and by ten-year age band.

Overall, more women than men tested positive for COVID- 19 in the last 28 days.

The age group with the most positive tests was 30 to 39 year olds for both men and women. Case numbers are currently highest amongst working age adults.

Over the last 4-week period there have been steady decreases in numbers of cases amongst people aged 60+.

*Please refer to the gov.uk coronavirus dashboard heat map for more information on cases in specific age groups.

13 Deaths Within 28 Days of Positive Test

This table shows total number of deaths of people who had Total deaths Deaths in week Change from a positive test result for COVID-19 and died within 28 days of th Area to 14 Mar 08 Mar to 14 previous the first positive test, reported up to 14 March 2021 for 2021 Mar 2021 week each of Northamptonshire’s seven districts and boroughs.

Northamptonshire 1,370 5 Decrease Most districts and boroughs have seen a decrease in numbers of deaths when compared to the previous week, Corby 121 0 No change however, Daventry and East Northamptonshire saw an increase with one death in each district. No deaths have Daventry 134 1 Increase been recorded in Corby for the last two weeks. East Northamptonshire 185 1 Increase Due to the impact of the COVID-19 vaccination in the elderly Kettering 192 2 Decrease and most vulnerable people, the number of deaths have Northampton 491 0 Decrease started to reduce more rapidly in recent weeks. South Northamptonshire 112 0 Decrease We must continue to work together now more than ever to Wellingborough 135 1 Decrease reduce numbers of deaths as recent scientific evidence suggests that new variants of COVID-19 in the UK may be Source: Gov.uk Coronavirus Dashboard deadlier than the original virus.

* People who died more than 28 days after their first positive test are not included, whether or not COVID-19 was the cause of death.

14 Hospital Beds Occupied by Confirmed

COVID-19 Patients This chart shows the trend in numbers of beds at Northampton and Kettering General Hospitals occupied by COVID-19 patients since 1st August 2020.

It shows that the number of beds occupied due to COVID-19 remained relatively steady over the late summer through to mid-October, at which point numbers of patients in hospital began to increase sharply.

The number of patients in hospital due to COVID-19 has been on a decreasing trend since mid-January, although the rate of decline has recently slowed. The latest data shows a total of 81 COVID-19 patients occupied hospital beds in Northamptonshire on 16th March 2021.

Bed occupancy has now decreased to levels last seen at the beginning of November 2020, however there is still demand for Intensive Care beds.

15 Education Status

This chart shows the trend in 7 day average cases recorded in education settings in the last 28 days for both staff and pupils.

It shows that weekly average case volumes were consistently low in the last week of February and first week of March and began to rise sharply from 10th March, particularly amongst pupils.

The table shows the proportion of education settings having recorded at least one case over a 4 week period. The proportion of schools with recent cases % of education settings % of education settings has decreased since the end of January. Date range recorded at least 1 case in recorded no cases in the 4 the 4 week period week period On 18 March 2021 a total of 3 education settings 18 Feb to 18 Mar 2021 19% 81% were closed, which was a decrease compared to the 11 Feb to 11 Mar 2021 18% 82% previous week. 4 Feb to 4 Mar 2021 21% 79% 28 Jan to 25 Feb 2021 28% 72%

16 Cases by Community – Last 28 Days

The chart shows the local communities within Northamptonshire where COVID-19 infections over the last 28 days are highest.

Knowing the areas with the highest case numbers in the last 28 days help us to prioritise and focus our support locally.

17 Case Rates by Community – Last 28 Days per 100,000 population

These graphics show what positive COVID- 19 case numbers over the last 28 days would look like if each local community had the exact same size population (100,000).

The map illustrates the 28-day infection rate per 100,000 population across the whole county.

* Please note that the numbers shown on this page represent the best possible estimate we can make from a wider range of numbers, because there is always a margin of error when calculating cases per 100,000 population – particularly where actual case numbers are small.

18 Change in Case Rates by Community – Fortnightly per 100,000 population Rank Name If each community had the exact same size 1 Queensway (Wboro) population (100,000) in Northamptonshire, this graphic shows how COVID-19 case 2 Kettering South (Kett) numbers in the last 14 days would have 3 Rushden East (EN) changed in each community compared to the previous 14 days. 4 Thrapston & Brigstock (EN) 5 Ringstead, Woodford & Stanwick (EN) We have seen decreases in case rates in 6 Abington Vale (Nton) most of our areas in the county. 7 Geddington, Rushton & Stoke Albany (Kett) However, 9 areas with increases in case 8 New Duston East (Nton) rates are listed next to the map. 9 Harpole, Kislingbury & Bugbrooke (SN) Areas with increases in rates of infection show us where we need to prioritise and focus our support locally.

• Please note that the numbers shown on this page represent the best possible estimate we can make from a wider range of numbers, because there is always a margin of error when calculating cases per 100,000 population – particularly where actual case numbers are small.

19 Summary of Outbreaks 15/03/2021

Two or more cases linked by place and time to that setting. Totals are 28 day counts for care homes and hospitals, and 14 day counts for all other locations.

In the last 28 days Corby Daventry East Northants Kettering Northampton South Northants Wellingborough County total Case total

Outbreaks 1 1 0 1 3 1 1 8 59 Care home/service 0 1 0 1 2 1 1 6 47 Childcare 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Workplace 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 4 Education 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 8 Hospital/healthcare 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Other 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

• Please note that this summary covers all situations classified as ‘active’. An active situation has had at least 1 positive case within the previous 28 days. • Outbreaks are pended if there are no new cases reported for Care homes/Health care in 14 days and 7 days for others. • Although outbreaks have decreased this week across all Districts and Boroughs except for Corby - it is important to note that the majority of cases are due to community household transmission. 20 21 COVID-19: Keep Up to Date

• Watch: Public Health Northamptonshire’s weekly press conference live streamed on YouTube with cross county partners from the NHS, Police and Education.

• Listen: To BBC Radio Northampton’s interviews with Director of Public Health Lucy Wightman twice weekly: Tuesday live at 08.10am and a pre-record aired at 5.10pm on Thursdays.

• Read: Northamptonshire’s Director of Public Health, Lucy Wightman’s weekly column in the Northampton Chronicle and Echo online and in the newspaper for the very latest insights and advice.

• Study: Our weekly surveillance reports on the NCC website.

• Look out for: Our advertising campaigns on buses, at bus stops, GOMO vans and i-walkers, (digital screens on vans and people that share our messages), Geo-locate techniques using location messaging on mobile devices and both digital and non-digital outdoor advertising boards.

• Follow us: on Twitter @NorthantsPH and Facebook @PublicHealthNorthants.

21 Help, Guidance and Fines

• Government Financial support is now available for eligible individuals who have to self-isolate for up to 14 days. Details of financial support can be found here.

• Northamptonshire County Council has put together a Self-isolation support pack for residents.

• Those who do not follow Test and Trace guidance, or those who breach self-isolation, or lockdown legislation will be fined £1,000.

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