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Seat Increase: BN’S Ultimate Weapon in GE14?

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Seat Increase: BN’S Ultimate Weapon in GE14? Seat Increase: BN’s ultimate weapon in GE14? Dr Wong Chin Huat Fellow, Penang Institute Resource Person, BERSIH 2.0-Engage-DART Briefing for Parliamentarians, the Parliament 2014.03.31 BN’s 3 Magic Tools: • Malapportionment –manipulation in electorate size • Gerrymandering –manipulation in electorate composition • Seat Increase – Manipulation of politicians’ judgement Seat Increase: More People, More Lawmakers? 3 Seat Increase: Closing Inter-state Malapportionment? By Cheng Eng Aun 4 Why must we have more lawmakers? The Growth of The Growth of Population and Population and Congress Parliament in US (1911-2013) in Malaysia (1965-2005) US Congressmen US Population (M) Malaysian MPs Malaysian Population (M) 435 435 222 314 144 94 26 9.4 1911 2013 1965 2005 5 Malaysia Boleh --- Let’s have 26 more MPs than India in 75 years? Projected Parliamentary Expansion in India and Malaysia 700 600 578 552 500 465 518 GE09-GE11: 417 400 374 GE07-GE09+14%!: 328 GE04-GE07: +8.5%! 300 288 +15%! 253 219 222 193 Projected Expansion Rate in 200 180 GE14 and after 192 177 +14% / 2 GEs 154 100 0 Number of Malaysian MPs and Projection (after GE13) Maximum Number of Indian MPs and Projection (after GE13) 6 Redelineation First, Seat Increase Later Peninsula and Sabah Sarawak Labuan Constituency Redelination 1st Notice of Display 2002.08.08 2002.08.08 2005.01.07 2nd Notice of Display 2003.01.16 2002.12.26 2005.04.22 EC report laid before Dewan 2003.04.03 2003.04.03 2005.06.23 Rakyat Draft Order passed by Dewan 2003.04.08 2003.04.08 2005.07.04 Rakyat Order Gazetted 2003.05.01 2003.05.01 2005.08.01 Seat Increase Amendment of Article 46 2003.06.19 2003.06.19 2005.09.29 passed by Dewan Rakyat Amendment of Article 46 2003.08.14 2003.08.14 2005.12.31 Gazetted Acknowledgement: Parliamentary Library; The Malaysian Bar especially Dr Pathmavathy Satyamoorthy, Santhi Latha and Anusha Gopalan Krishnan; Lu Wei Hong; and Cheng Eng Aun Why the Confusions? Issue Consideration Decision Maker Pre-1962 Post-1973 2003 & 2005 (by design) Redelineation (in practice) Total Seats Effectiveness of Step 1: Step 1: Step 2: Parliament; Parliament Parliament Election Quality of (Article 46) (Article 46) Commission Representation; (Article 46) Interstate Electorate Size Step 2: Apportionment and Power of Election State Commission Districting Electorate Size (Article 116) Step 2: Step 1: and Local Ties Election Election Commission Commission (13th Schedule) (13th Schedule) How big should the Parliament be? • Consideration 1: effectiveness of Parliament • Consideration 2: quality of representation 2012 The Dewan Rakyat met for 560：58：00 An average MP spoke and was heard for 02：31：37 By Nicholas Chan Should we have MORE MPs so that each can speak LESS? 9 How may seat increase make GE14 outcome more predetermined? • Two standard methods in gerrymandering: – Packing (your opponents’ supporters so that they can only win few constituencies) – Cracking (your opponents’ supporters so that they cannot win marginal constituencies) • By packing opposition supporters in a new seat, – BN’s marginal seats can be saved – PR’s marginal seats can be cracked How may seat increase make GE14 outcome more predetermined? • In GE13, BN won 52.45% of total votes but 100% of 4 Parliamentary Seats surrounding Johor Bahru. • With price hike, plane crash and other factors, BN support may fall in GE14 and it may lose 3 seats if there is a drop by 3% points. • Without new seats, helping one BN candidate may hurt another one. P158 Tebrau Who should Gerry help? Khoo Soo Seng (MCA) 51.13% P161 Pulai Nur Jazlan Mohamed (UMNO) 51.91% P160 Johor Bahru P159 Pasir Gudang Shahrir Abdul Samad Normala Abdul Samad (UMNO) (UMNO) 56.46% 50.54% 11 How to gerrymander within these 4 constituencies? Blue – BN >= 55% Light Blue – BN 50%-<55% By HY Magenta – PR 50%-<55% Red – PR > 55% Without additional seats Seats GE 13 After Boundary Adjustment Voters Margin Voters Margin P158 Tebrau 90,482 1767 (BN) 95695 2587 P159 Pasir Gudang 101,041 935 (BN) 98936 1671 P160 Johor Bahru 96,321 10,134 (BN) 96955 6154 P161 Pulai 100,490 3226 (BN) 97748 2095 With 1 additional seat Seats After Boundary Adjustment Voters Margin P158 Terbrau 78394 7187 (BN) P159 Pasir Gudang 73975 8324 (BN) P160 JB Timor 78807 -17029 (PR) P160A JB Barat 79034 10463 (BN) P161 Pulai 78124 3562 Without Adding Seats No matter how much adjustment is made, only 1 seat (JB) can be made safe. Possibly, in total, PR 3: BN1, a PR’s net lead of 2. Add 1 Additional Seat With addition of just 1 seat, 3 seat are super safe, and 1 winnable and PR get 1 super safe seat (JB Timor). Overall: BN 4: PR 1, a BN’s net lead of 3. Compared to the previous scenario, BN’s fortune turns from -2 to +3, a net gain of 5 seats! What about gerrymandering into neighbouring constituencies, without new seats? By HY Polling districts on the eastern front are heavily BN. Adding in these polling districts may result in the JB constituencies excessively larger than neighbouring rural constituencies (Kota Tinggi and Tenggara). Polling districts on the western front are quite pro-PR. Gerrymandering towards that direction will mean transfer out these polling districts, which will make Gelang Patah excessively large. Combining these two moves, BN may still be marginal in 1-2 constituencies in the middle. Possible Scenario in Selangor • These 5 Parliamentary Constituencies have 460,315 voters (7x national average) • In GE13, BN won 2 marginally (2:3), a lead of 1 • In GE14, BN may lose Hulu Selangor all 5 (0:5), a net loss of 85.697 5 (BN: 50.89%) • If 1 seat can be added, it’s possible for BN to Kuala Selangor secure the 2 marginals 62,298 Selayang (BN: 50.42%) 101,236 Gombak and win the new seat (BN: 37.90%) 123,290 (3:3), an even. (BN 47.53%) • This would mean an improvement from a net loss of 5 to possibly an even, a net gain in 5. Ampang 83,135 (BN 40.60%) Possible Scenario in Terengganu Setiu 67,280 (BN: 56.79%) • With 634,944 voters (10x national average), Terengganu can count Kuala Nerus on increase up to 2 seats 76,238 • 1 seat can be added between Besut (BN: 49.55%) 72,566 Kuala Terengganu, Marang and (BN: 56.71%) Kuala Terengganu Setiu, to be won by UMNO. 94,406 (BN: 43.23%) • Kuala Nerus can be wrested in the process. Marang 90,795 • Another 1 seat can be added (BN 46.83%) between Dungun and Kemaman, which UMNO stands a good chance of winning. Hulu Terengganu Dungun 63,543 78,174 • With status quo, UMNO: PAS = (BN: 57.38%) (BN: 46.78%) 4: 4 (a net lead of 0) • With 2 new seats, it could well be UMNO: PAS = 6:4 (a net lead of 2) Kemaman or even 7:3 (a net lead of 4) 91,442 (BN: 57.81%) What about other states? Seat increase will likely benefit BN in also • Kedah • Kelantan • Malacca • KL • Sabah • Sarawak • Pahang • Perak Thank you Extra 1 Why You Just Cant Trust the EC Violation of the “1 Person, 1 Vote, 1 Value” Principle? • View 1: Malapportionment By Cheng Eng Aun Violation of the “1 Person, 1 Vote, 1 Value” Principle? • View 2: Malapportionment + Gerrymandering Violation of the “1 Person, 1 Vote, 1 Value” Principle? • View 2: Malapportionment + Gerrymandering Seats-Votes Disproportionality in the Parliamentary Elections 2013 Vote % Seat % Relative Value 126.00% 109.00% 66.00% 59.91% 64.00% 47.38% 20.39% 17.12% 14.77% 15.71% 13.51% 9.46% BN PKR DAP PAS Jika 1 undi = RM1, dan Harga 1kg sugar RM 1 如果一票=RM1， 而白糖每公斤RM1 If 1 Vote = RM1 and RM1 buys you 1kg sugar DAPAT 买到 BN RECEIVED 1.26KG DAPAT 买到 PKR RECEIVED 0.66KG DAPAT 买到 DAP RECEIVED 1.09KG DAPAT 买到 PAS RECEIVED 0.64KG Kerusi dalam Parlimen DAPAT 买到 国会议席 PR RECEIVED 0.79KG Seats in Parliament By Thomas Fann Bilangan undi pembangkang utama untuk melawan 1 undi Perikatan/Bn 与联盟/国阵一张选票等值，主要在野党所需赢得的选票数目 PRU Votes for Main Opposition Parties to match 1 Alliance/ BN vote 选举 Parti Pembangkang No 1 Parti Pembangkang No 2 Parti Pembangkang No 3 最大在野党 第二大在野党 第三大在野党 Elections Largest Opposition Party Second Largest Opposition Party Third Largest Opposition Party 1955 PN Infinity PAS 2.54 NAP Infinity 1959 PAS 2.34 Labour 2.31 PPP 2.25 1964 SF 12.25 PAS 2.47 UDP 6.65 1969 PAS 3.39 DAP 1.79 Gerakan 1.81 1974 DAP 4.52 SNAP 1.37 Pekemas 11.39 1978 DAP 2.72 PAS 7.03 Pekemas Infinity 1982 DAP 4.75 PAS 6.30 PSRM Infinity 1986 DAP 2.27 PAS 40.41 PSRM Infinity 1990 DAP 2.10 S46 4.48 PAS 2.28 1995 DAP 3.33 S46 4.22 PAS 2.59 1999 PAS 1.45 DAP 3.28 PKN 6.11 2004 PAS 8.15 DAP 2.58 PKR 26.08 2008 PKR 1.67 PAS 1.70 DAP 1.37 2013 PKR 1.91 PAS 1.98 DAP 1.19 Constitutional Provision Against Malapportionment Federal Constitution, Thirteenth Schedule, Part 1, Section 2 (c) the number of electors within each constituency in a State ought to be approximately equal except that, having regard to the greater difficulty of reaching electors in the country districts and the other disadvantage facing rural constituencies, a measure of weightage for area ought to be given to such constituencies; • Equal apportionment is rule, malapportionment has to be exceptional and justifiably pro-rural 27 Anti-rural and Unjustified Malapportionment Intra-State Malapportionment within the same state (Kedah) and the same Parliamentary Constituency (P103 Puchong) Proposed Electorate at the 2003 Redelineation (2001 figure) 72,387 Is Baling a 56,007 Metropolis? Is Kinrara twice as backward as Sri Serdang? 36,989 19,304 P9 Alor Star P16 Baling N29 Sri Serdang N30 Kinrara 28 Constitutional Provision Against Gerrymandering Federal Constitution, Thirteenth Schedule, Part 1, Section 2 (a) while having regard to the desirability of giving all electors reasonably convenient opportunities of going to the polls, constituencies ought to be delimited so that they do not cross State boundaries and regard ought to be had to the inconvenience of State constituencies crossing the boundaries of federal constituencies; (b) regard ought to be to the administrative facilities available within the constituencies for the establishment of the necessary registration and polling machines; (d) regard ought to be had to the inconveniences attendant on alterations of constituencies, and to the maintenance of local ties.
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