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Water Politics in the Middle East: a Multicase Approach to Regional Water Shortage

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Water Politics in the Middle East: a Multicase Approach to Regional Water Shortage WATER POLITICS IN THE MIDDLE EAST: A MULTICASE APPROACH TO REGIONAL WATER SHORTAGE by HOLLY MULHOLLAND B.A. University of Central Florida, 2006 A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts in the Department of Political Science in the College of Sciences at the University of Central Florida Orlando, Florida Spring Term 2011 © 2011 Holly Mulholland ii ABSTRACT Water shortage is a salient issue in the Middle East commonly overshadowed by more sensational topics such as the oil crisis and the Arab-Israeli Conflict. There is a debate among scholars as to whether water shortages in the Middle East will destabilize the region into armed conflict. Realists argue that non sustainable water sources will be the catalyst which will inevitably lead states to fight one another in a zero-sum game over limited water resources. Liberal Functionalists argue that there are precedents for multilateral cooperation and a technical approach may hold the key to providing solutions to the current water crisis. This research will examine three case studies from the Middle East region: the Jordan River Basin, the Tigris and Euphrates River Basin, and the Disi Aquifer on the border of Jordan and Saudi Arabia. Limited to a specific geographic region, these cases are indicative of water shortages that have or will become potential geostrategic centers for the water crisis. iii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This thesis would not have been possible without the guidance of my advisor and committee chair, Dr. Houman Sadri under whose supervision I chose this topic and began the thesis. I also thank the members of my graduate committee, Dr. Trudi Morales and Dr. Barbara Kinsey for their suggestions. Lastly, and most importantly, I would like to thank my friends and family for their constant encouragement and support. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF FIGURES ........................................................................................................................ x UNITS AND CONVERSIONS FACTORS .................................................................................. xi PART I: THE WATER SHORTAGE CRISIS ............................................................................... 1 CHAPTER 1: OVERVIEW AND LITERATURE REVIEW ........................................................ 1 Theoretical Significance ............................................................................................................. 3 Literature Review........................................................................................................................ 4 Miriam Lowi’s Water and Power: The Politics of a Scarce Resource in the Jordan River Basin ....................................................................................................................................... 4 Literature on Regional Water Crisis ..................................................................................... 11 How does your topic fit into the literature? .............................................................................. 15 Research Design ........................................................................................................................ 15 Physical Attributes .................................................................................................................... 16 The Water Cycle ....................................................................................................................... 17 Overpopulation ......................................................................................................................... 19 Desertification ........................................................................................................................... 20 CHAPTER 2: TIGRIS AND EUPHRATES RIVER SYSTEM ................................................... 21 Climate and Hydropolitical features ......................................................................................... 23 Historical Background .............................................................................................................. 26 v The First Phase ...................................................................................................................... 29 The Second Phase ................................................................................................................. 32 Riparian States .......................................................................................................................... 35 Turkey ................................................................................................................................... 35 Syria ...................................................................................................................................... 38 Iraq ........................................................................................................................................ 39 Iran ........................................................................................................................................ 40 Present and Future Water Development ................................................................................... 41 CHAPTER 3: THE JORDAN RIVER BASIN ............................................................................. 44 Introduction ............................................................................................................................... 44 Geography ................................................................................................................................. 44 The Yarmouk River .............................................................................................................. 46 Jordan River Riparians .............................................................................................................. 46 The West Bank ...................................................................................................................... 48 Israel ...................................................................................................................................... 48 The Kingdom of Jordan ........................................................................................................ 50 History....................................................................................................................................... 52 First Zionist Settlers .............................................................................................................. 53 The 1967 Six Day War ......................................................................................................... 53 vi Arab-Israeli Conflict ............................................................................................................. 54 Water Development .................................................................................................................. 54 The Headwater Diversion Project ......................................................................................... 57 Unity Dam ............................................................................................................................. 59 The Hullah Valley ................................................................................................................. 60 Water as a strategic issue .......................................................................................................... 61 Institutionalisation of water policies ..................................................................................... 61 The New Paradigm ............................................................................................................... 62 Conclusion ................................................................................................................................ 63 CHAPTER 4: The Disi Aquifer .................................................................................................... 66 Introduction ............................................................................................................................... 66 Technical Specifications ........................................................................................................... 66 The Water Shortage in Amman ................................................................................................ 69 The Disi-Amman pipeline ......................................................................................................... 72 Why Open Conflict is Unlikely ................................................................................................ 75 Internal and external actors in the Disi project ......................................................................... 76 Government........................................................................................................................... 76 The Private Sector ................................................................................................................. 76 The Academic Community’s Consensus .............................................................................. 77 vii Environmental Organizations ............................................................................................... 77 Local Farmers ....................................................................................................................... 78 The Media ............................................................................................................................
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