• Abstract and Figures
• Public Full-text

• ...explicitly about overall draft strategy. I could’ve written many dry essays about why my ranks look the way they look, but I think my overall ranks— Hi, there. combined with individual player analysis—speak for themselves. You’ll see recommendations about Thanks! Thanks for purchasing the 2016 individual players, and that’s because we draft players, HarrisFootball Player Profile Almanac. I had a blast not positions. writing it. I hope you have a blast reading it. • ...interested in explicitly ranking by “tiers.” If I’ve Before I get started previewing players, I should get got overall ranks, do you need to explicitly be told some stuff out of the way. There were a lot of things where tiers end? Peruse my overall ranks, and you’ll this almanac could’ve been, but isn’t. And I want to see the occasional break between position-mates. Safe explain why. to say that’s a tier. • ...going to deal with IDP. I’m sorry about that, but The almanac is: I’ve never played in a league where defensive players • ...an analysis of every player I think you need to were scarce enough that it was worth reaching to know for 2016, with snark added at no extra charge. draft J.J. Watt. The vast majority of IDP leagues are shallow—say, everyone drafts 2 DLs, 2 LBs and 2 • ...a repository for most relevant angles—film-review, DBs—in which case my advice is straightforward and historical, statistical and otherwise—into evaluating catch-all: wait. Spend currency on scarcer positions. the NFL’s biggest names. • ...a stab at giving you a “ranks range” for each player, so you can understand what I think their What’s the guiding upsides and downsides are for ’16. operational philosophy here? • ...a philosophical treatise (or, actually, a series of treatises) on how I view fantasy and the NFL, gathered If you listen to my podcast, you’re already tired of over a decade of doing this for a living and a summer hearing me say this: past statistics aren’t the best of combing through ’15 game film. indicator of future performance. Two things are more important: 1. Talent; 2. Situation. • ...a careful debunking of some of the most facile commentary we hear inside the NFL and fantasy I freely admit that I’ll apply these factors differently media echo chambers. for different players, because there’s no such thing as pure objectivity, and because I’m a hypocrite. And it’s The almanac is not: not like I never look at past stats; of course I do. But in • ...filled with stat projections. I speak from ’15, chasing big recent numbers led to over-drafts of experience: NFL stat projections are hot garbage. players like DeMarco Murray, Justin Forsett and C.J. They come from nothing so much as the idea that: Anderson, among many others. “Cool, that looks pretty much like an Antonio Brown projection. Let’s go with that!” I’ll go so far as to say that you should beware of almost any argument for or against a player that • ...going to give you auction values. I’ve always begins with statistics. Yes, true, sometimes stats are a thought this was shaky: “Here’s Adrian Peterson’s shorthand way some folks use to try and communicate fair value in an auction.” Huh? Literally every auction the fact that they’ve watched the player, and either like is different. Literally every one. Auction dynamics or don’t like him. More often, though, stats are a lazy are crazy and awesome and so fun, and you could sit way to justify an already-held opinion. down with one group and everyone spends $80 on a top receiver, and then sit down with another and If I like a player, I’ll say I watched him play, and this everyone spends $50. I’ve always believed giving one is what I liked. If I don’t like a player, ditto. dollar value per player does more harm than good. How do I use this almanac? drop numbers for the same player. • TEs have a ROUTES number. This is the average 1. You should realize that the ranks reflected in the number of pass routes they ran per game, and helps us bulk of the almanac are for 12-team standard-scoring understand playing time and how much they block. leagues. Maybe it feels to you like PPR has taken • RBs have a BIG RUNS number, which gives the over the world, but trust me when I tell you: the number of 20+ yard rushing gains. This is an arbitrary strong majority of fantasy leagues still use standard. number, and obviously all 20-yard gains aren’t created That’s not a value judgment on which is better. It’s the same. (Did a defender fall down? Did the RB just the truth. And it’s the truth because the major dance through an entire defense?) But at least it hints web sites use standard as their default. Most folks slightly at the prior year’s explosiveness. don’t even think about changing their systems. I will give my PPR ranks at the end of the almanac, and • Finally, every player has a ’16 Range, where I give I’ll occasionally refer to them for a player where the the high and the low potential final rank at the player’s scoring system really matters (e.g., Danny Woodhead). position, provided that player stays healthy. 2. Also realize that the writing I’ve done in the almanac is mostly geared toward re-draft leagues, What else is going on here? again because that’s what the majority of people play. I think dynasty owners will find scads of information In each of the four main positional sections, you’ll see about many players’ abilities that will help assess with three kinds of “features,” which use the player being a longer view in mind. I’ll give my dynasty ranks at analyzed to address some larger concern: the end of the almanac, too. 1. Harris’s Mid-Profile Digression. Throughout 3. Yes, the same goes for 2QB leagues. the almanac, I assigned myself research projects that largely deal with historical context for the current 4. Veterans have some stats from ’15. They aren’t player. My intention is to ask a question about how always the stats you’re used to, but they’re stats I think the player being discussed fits into recent NFL history, provide a better overview than the usual: with an eye toward figuring out whether their age, size or output can guide our expectations. • PYD is Passing Yards. RYD is Rushing Yards. RCYD is Receiving Yards. Pretty standard stuff. 2. Cast Off Your Crutch Arguments. In • AGE refers to the standard NFL convention, which HarrisFootball parlance, a “crutch argument” is is the age the player will be on Dec. 31st of this year. a weapon the lazy fantasy player uses to bolster an opinion they already hold. For instance: “It’s a • INJURY is the number of games they’ve missed contract year! That player will be motivated!” Or: because of injury over the past three seasons. “That guy is better at home!” Or: “They got a good #2 • QBs and WRs have AY@C. For QBs, this is the WR. That’ll help the #1 guy!” Sometimes these things distance that their average completion traveled down are true. Sometimes they’re not. The point is that the field in the air. For WRs, this is the distance that they’re not necessarily true, so using them to prove their average reception traveled down the field in the your opinion about a player is intellectually dishonest. air. These numbers aren’t perfect, but they hint at how In these sections, I pick apart crutch arguments that players were used. are sometimes applied to the current player. • WRs have a SLOT %. This is the number of routes 3. Stats Lie! Some stats in football are helpful in they ran out of the slot last year divided by the number adding to a picture of a player’s ability. Others of routes they ran overall. Again: not perfect, but gives can be misleading. The desire to translate baseball a sense of how they were used. sabermetrics (in which I believe!) into football leads to • WRs have a DROPS number. But drops are dogmatic recitation of statistical proof. These sections subjective! Different stats services present different give examples of favorable-looking and unfavorable- looking stats that apply to the same player. This doesn’t mean you should definitely draft a Where are the kicker running back with your first pick! If you look at all profiles? the elite RBs not in timeshares—for me that list is Adrian Peterson, Todd Gurley and Jamaal Charles... Surely, you jest. with dumb ol’ Le’Veon Bell suspended for a month, and thus not a first-rounder—and you can’t stomach Listen, week-to-week, kickers are too random to the risk that those specific players carry? I’m okay predict. Even ones in good offenses have bad games bypassing them. But that’s the point: we draft players and you never know when they’re coming. Wait until not positions. The moment you think in terms of your draft’s final round. Seriously. drafting a position, you’re likelier to make a mistake. If you listen to my podcast, you’ve heard me talk Are you really not gonna some about Value-Based Drafting. I talk about it in this almanac a little, too: check Rob Gronkowski’s throw us a bone and profile for more.

Load more

  107

Copy Link