MAGAZINE Abroad September 27, 2013

The International Weekly Newspaper

THE ROAD AHEAD US, India: A Unique Fellowship

JOSHUA ROBERTS-POOL/GETTY IMAGES GUEST EDITOR: AMBASSADOR NIRUPAMA RAO US-India The Way Forward

M2 THE MAGAZINE India Abroad September 27, 2013 Indian Prime Minister ’s upcoming meeting with President Barack Obama shines the light on a vital relationship of great importance not only because of its bilateral impact, but the difference it makes for peace and progress everywhere. PARESH GANDHI India’s Ambassador to the United States Nirupama Rao. little more than eight years ago, on July 18, 2005, Dr Manmohan Singh embarked on perhaps the most audacious diplomatic mission an Indian prime minister has undertaken — to completely transform the Along troubled relationship with the United States of America. By “removing the fish bone in the throat” — as a senior Indian diplomat once described the US deci- sion to sign a civilian nuclear agreement with India — President George W Bush enforced his administration

JASON REED/REUTERS and his nation’s commitment to a new and powerful association with India. Much has happened in the years since. There have been many moments of exhilarating triumph as there have been moments of intense disappointment. Despite the belief in some quarters that the US- The Silent Revolution India relationship has not achieved its full potential, despite the occasional anxiety and the frustrations on both sides, it is amply clear that the world’s two great- est democracies are closer today than they have ever The US and India share more than a partnership, they share a been. To mark what could be Dr Singh’s final visit to the fellowship forged on the anvil of shared interests, values, and United States as prime minister, India Abroad invited diplomats and strategic thinkers in and concerns. AMBASSADOR NIRUPAMA RAO on the journey Washington, DC to assess the current state of the US- India relationship and suggest a road map for the so far and the way forward. future. For the first time in India Abroad’s 43-year-old his- tory, we invited a Guest Editor to edit this special hen strategic part- India, the range of engagement with it is also amply recognized that uni- issue of the India Abroad Magazine. One of the finest ners and sister the US (over 30 dialogue mecha- dimensional approaches cannot dic- diplomats in the history of the , democracies like nisms) far exceeds that with any tate the manner in which the rela- Ambassador Nirupama Rao. India and the other country. No longer are there tionship is transacted. When we invited India’s Ambassador to the United United States of hyphens attached to India in thinking This cannot detract however, from States to be our first-ever Guest Editor, she gracefully America meet, the circles in Washington; the civilian the fundamentally positive orienta- consented on condition that she would see every word worldW sits up and takes note. nuclear deal overcame difficult lega- tion of relations between India and that went into this, the special issue of the India Therefore, the visit of India’s Prime cies of the past, and the US has reset the United States. Abroad Magazine. Minister, Dr Manmohan Singh to not only its vision of India, but also Speaking in Mumbai during his She has been a tough editor, scrutinizing every arti- Washington, DC and his upcoming India’s place in Asia and the world. visit to India in July this year, the cle, making numerous valuable suggestions and bring- meeting with President Barack The defense of pluralism, of diversi- Vice President Joe Biden put it in his ing her 40-year-old most distinguished diplomatic Obama shines the light on a vital ty, of democracy is a mutually shared inimitable way, ‘I am absolutely con- career to bear on the rich portfolio of insights we relationship of great importance not perspective. There is also recognition fident — absolutely confident in the bring to you this week. only because of its bilateral impact, of the pivotal role played by the future of this relationship. Not This is an issue of the India Abroad Magazine like but the difference it makes for peace Indian-American community. because I’m naïve. I’ve been around none other. and progress everywhere. But our learned contributors also longer than most of you. I’ve been What you will find within are a colorful tapestry of Contributors to this supplement speak of a need for work on both doing this kind of business my entire views that profile what President Obama described as have raised several important ques- sides to re-launch the partnership, to adult life. My confidence is based on the most decisive relationship for this, the 21st centu- tions in the context of this relation- dispel perception of a loss of momen- the history of the journey of both our ry. We are pleased to feature these contributors in this ship and its growth over the last tum, to set long term goals in the countries. But I am confident.’ special issue and deeply honored to have Ambassador decade. It is acknowledged that there bilateral relationship, to impress And as Vice-President Biden also Rao as its Guest Editor. has been a remarkable improvement upon Americans that India is a place put it, there is no hyperbole in the — The Editors in relations between the two coun- where they can do business. With the tries over the last decade, and that for good sense possessed by democracies, Page M3 US-India The Way Forward

THE MAGAZINE M3 India Abroad September 27, 2013

Page M2 transfer pricing for research and devel- opment centers. Preferential Market definition of this relationship as a ‘defin- The Silent Revolution Access guidelines for private sector com- ing partnership.’ panies have been kept in abeyance in Congressman Joe Crowley, co-chair, view of the concerns expressed by US- House Caucus on India and the Indian based investors. Americans, writing in this supplement, In areas like energy, education and says, “We have simply come too far health, our partnership is robust and together to turn back,” adding that “the flourishing. Strong public-private part- fruits of cooperation far outweigh the nerships have been forged in solar ener- costs of discord.” gy research, building energy research, There is a sense of maturity in the and advanced biofuels. There have been relationship today, as Robert Hathaway encouraging developments concerning notes in these pages, which more than openings for shale gas exports from the compensates for the sense of anticipa- US to non-Free Trade Agreement coun- tion that coursed through the veins a few tries, from which India (with its huge years ago. A “settled routine” prevails. A and only partially fulfilled energy measured sense of mature realism requirements) hopes to benefit. underscored by basic goodwill and Our Higher Education Dialogue is also empathy is not to be lightly dismissed. It promoting strategic institutional part- can be the lodestar for a durable rela- nerships, deepening collaboration in tionship where the best is yet to be. research and development, fostering When I recce the landscape of our partnerships in community college edu- bilateral relations, I direct the pointer cation, junior faculty development and towards our enhanced engagement in empowered classrooms through online areas like defense and security, exchange education. Sixteen joint India-US of high-level visits, the regular meetings research projects have been awarded of the India-US Strategic Dialogue since PARESH GANDHI under the Singh-Obama 21st Century 2010, our burgeoning trade and eco- Indian Ambassador to the US Nirupama Rao edits this special issue of the India Abroad Magazine at the Knowledge Initiative. Considering nomic partnership, and the sharper Ambassador’s residence in Washington, DC. This is for the first time in the newspaper’s 43-year-old history India’s “demographic dividend” of young focus that has been brought to the “peo- that we invited a Guest Editor. people, our cooperation in Higher ple-centric” dimension of our relation- Education is a critically important pillar ship, together with our cooperation in sectors such as edu- ing, combating illicit finance, bulk cash smuggling and of the Strategic Partnership. cation, energy, S&T, innovation, health and space science. counterfeiting, cyber-security and critical infrastructure The cutting edge for the future of both our countries is Contacts between states in India and those in the United protection, port, border, maritime, transportation and sup- innovation. Nowhere is this more apparent than in our States have also been a feature of our exchanges. The US ply chain security, science and technology cooperation and cooperation in science and technology. And, even more Congress, and particularly members of the India Caucus, capacity building. importantly, this involves the youth of both countries. The S have time and again shown their focus and commitment to The business of diplomacy is business, as has been said. N Bose and Khorana fellowships for young students are the cause of better US-India relations. This is a silent revo- Noteworthy is the growth in trade volume, both in goods examples. The Millennium Alliance involving India’s lution, not a blockbuster one, but epochal all the same. and services between our two countries (close to 100 billion Department of Science and Technology, the Trade In civil nuclear cooperation, negotiations between India’s $ last year). We have set our sights on an early convening of Development Board, USAID and the Federation of Indian Nuclear Power Corporation and Westinghouse as also GE- the bilateral Trade Policy Forum. Negotiations on a Chambers of Commerce and Industry, the India-US. S&T Hitachi are under way. Progress even if slow, is steady, sus- Bilateral Investment Treaty have recommenced in July this Endowment Fund for Innovation & Entrepreneurship, the tained by the political will of both governments to ensure year. There is a fulsome discussion ongoing by both govern- Joint Clean Energy Research and Development Center, the that this cooperation achieves its goals. We look forward to ment and industry on the Indian side with US stake holders monsoon desk at NOAA, collaboration in the prevention continued US support and cooperation in securing India’s that highlights our concerns on any restrictions sought to and management of Diabetes and the India-US Science & membership of the four multilateral export control regimes. be imposed on the movement of high-skilled non-immi- Technology Forum are forums that illustrate our innova- In defense, our cooperation has intensified with growing grant professionals employed by Indian information tech- tions partnerships. defense trade, joint exercises, personnel exchanges, cooper- nology companies into the United States. We endorse the In the field of health, the Vaccine Action Program is a ation in maritime security and counter piracy operations. view recently expressed by five distinguished former US productive collaboration and the momentum it has created The aggregate worth of India’s defense acquisitions (includ- Ambassadors to India that there should be a “clean” immi- has seen the development of a new rotavirus vaccine: ing the C-130 J-30, C-17 Globe Master III, and Poseidon 8 I gration reform bill that does not include any discriminatory ROTAVAC, the first entirely new vaccine developed within aircrafts) from the US has crossed $9 billion. There is provisions that may harm US or Indian interests, and India in over 100 years. intention to now take our defense ties to a level where we which supports the growth of the US-India knowledge India’s relations with the US began in 1792, when can simplify technology transfer policies and explore possi- economy. Our IT and other companies whose investments President George Washington commissioned Benjamin Joy, bilities of co-development and co-production of defense in the US economy are significant, have generated a few of Newburyport and Boston, to be Consul at Calcutta (as it systems. hundred thousand jobs in the US, creating livelihoods and was then called) ‘and other ports and places on the coast of Our strategic consultations and our dialogues covering wellbeing. India and Asia.’ East Asia, Central Asia and West Asia are also an important It is true that concerns are expressed in the US about the Truly, our relations have endured the test of time. There is aspect of our partnership. Trilateral mechanisms for dia- pace of reform in India. We are sensitive to these concerns continuity, there is hope and promise, never denied, but to logue with Japan, and also with Afghanistan are additional- because we value our investment ties with US businesses. be fully fulfilled. The two countries share more than a part- ly, a key feature. India has prioritized the improvement of its investment cli- nership, they share a fellowship forged on the anvil of As Lisa Curtis puts it in these pages, there is a strategic mate, and significant foreign direct investment liberaliza- shared interests, values, and concerns. logic in our ties. This is especially so when we widen the tion has occurred in the past year in multi-brand retail, sin- A steady, steadfast, and mature approach to the relation- lens beyond bilateral relations to the Asian stage and gle-brand retail, civil aviation, telecommunications and ship in its present state, as well as in charting the course beyond. defense. Clearances for pending projects have been fast- forward should propel us in our journey to the future. And, Cooperation in counter-terrorism has seen considerable tracked by a Cabinet-level empowered committee, (170 we need to take a holistic view always, relating everything progress with intelligence sharing and information projects worth US $ 30.45 billion cleared until early to context, because uni-focal approaches cannot do exchange, and the institutionalization of the Homeland August, 2013), taxation issues have been addressed upfront justice to this unique fellowship, this sisterhood of Security Dialogue covering engagement in megacities polic- and clarified, including General Anti-Avoidance Rules and democracies. US-India The Way Forward

M4 THE MAGAZINE India Abroad September 27, 2013 Former Assistant Secretary of State for South Asian Affairs KARL F INDERFURTH outlines ways the fizz can return to the India-US relationship.

s Prime Minister Manmohan Singh arrives in Washington for his second White House visit with APresident Obama, there are two competing narratives regarding the current state of US–India ties. One says the relationship has gone off the rails; the other says it is still on track. My assessment is that both are partially correct and that Obama and Singh have an opportunity to dispel the first narrative, re-enforce the second, and put, in the words of a former Indian ambassador to the US, some of the ‘earlier effervescence’ back into the relationship. Over the past 13 years, under three US administrations and two Indian gov- ernments, the two countries have worked hard to build a strategic partnership for the 21st century, across the full spectrum of the relationship. In the past year alone, there have been 44 senior meet- ings, most recently with visits to India by Vice President Joe Biden in July (the first VP to do so in three decades) and Secretary of State John Kerry in June, for the fourth annual US-India Strategic Dialogue. These meetings represent a huge step forward from the past. But we can and should do more. So, what can President Obama and Prime Minister

Singh accomplish during their time together? ADNAN ABIDI/REUTERS First, a reality check is in order. The two leaders should Vice President Joe Biden and his wife Jill in New Delhi July 22. In the past year alone, there have been 44 senior meetings, have a private one-on-one meeting to share with each other most recently Biden’s. While these meetings represent a huge step forward from the past, the US and India can and should do more. the domestic challenges they are facing — Obama most immediately with the Syria crisis and upcoming budget and debt ceiling battles with Congress; Singh with India’s slumping economy and next year’s national elections and the concomitant prospects for a ‘lame duck’ government. The Need for Effervescence These domestic considerations will understandably con- strain the degree to which Washington and New Delhi will be able to focus on each other in the immediate months of Defense Ashton Carter recently traveled to New Delhi. (LNG) exports. Collaboration on clean energy and renew- ahead. Neither should be surprised or take this amiss.That This is not just about arms sales, but co-development and ables should continue to forge ahead. The August 2 cover said, the two leaders should then roll up their sleeves, exert co-production projects and technology transfers. story in India Abroad on Vice President Biden’s trip to New some political will to untangle some of the unfinished busi- In addition, the US and India should commence negotia- Delhi was entitled ‘Biden’s Nudge.’ It included this quote ness that is holding the relationship back, and then ascend tions to renew their bilateral defense cooperation frame- from Indian Ambassador Nirupama Rao: “It was a well to thirty thousand feet to articulate several longer-term work with a Comprehensive Security Compact by 2015. timed visit. We brought new focus not just on smaller goals that will underscore the undeniable benefits to both Prime Minister Singh’s comments about India’s willing- issues, but on the larger picture of our partnership.” countries of our strategic partnership. Here are three sug- ness to be a net provider of security in the Indo-Pacific Let’s hope the same will be said following Prime Minister gestions for them to consider: region are significant in this regard. Singh’s visit to Washington and that the two leaders will Economic and trade relations: Here the unfinished busi- Energy partnerships: At the top of the US–India unfin- have been able put some of that ‘effervescence’ back into ness is a bilateral investment treaty. ished business ‘to do’ list is implementation of the 2008 US-India ties. Over a year ago the two sides agreed to ‘expeditiously con- civil nuclear agreement. An announcement by Obama that he intends to pay a sec- clude’ negotiations on an agreement. Still waiting. When entered into five years ago, it was billed as the cor- ond visit to India during his final term in office — he would We also need a long-term framework that would include a nerstone of the burgeoning strategic partnership between be the first American President to do so — would also add free trade agreement as an achievable goal. We should bring the countries. Then it bogged down, which is unfortu- some fizz! India into APEC (Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation) and nate considering how much political capital was the Trans-Pacific Partnership discussions. expended in both Washington and New Delhi. Karl F Inderfurth is a former Assistant For its part, India needs to vigorously pursue and imple- Finalizing a commercial agreement between India’s Secretary of State for South Asian Affairs during ment economic reforms and trade liberalization, of which Nuclear Power Corporation and Westinghouse for a the Clinton administration and currently holds they have heard a great deal recently from both our public nuclear reactor in Gujarat could be the signal that the Wadhwani Chair in US– India Policy Studies and private sectors. They’ve got the message. They have things are back on track and moving forward. at the Center for Strategic and International one for us about proposed US immigration legislation. Beyond nuclear, India’s power needs are extraordi- Studies. His three-year appointment to this posi- Defense and security ties: The Defense Trade Initiative nary; we can help in many ways, especially now that tion concludes at the end of this year. The search needs a push by both sides, which is why Deputy Secretary the way has been cleared for liquefied natural gas for a successor chair holder is underway. US-India The Way Forward

THE MAGAZINE M5 India Abroad September 27, 2013 President Obama would be wise not to take this important relationship for granted, advises US Congressman ED ROYCE, Chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee.

or decades following its independence, India’s relations with the United States were rocky. Following India’s 1998 nuclear test, the US unwisely sanctioned India, severely damag- ing relations. Over the past dozen years though, NewF Delhi has emerged as one of Washington’s key part- ners. Having joined President Bill Clinton on his 2000 trip to India, I witnessed firsthand the beginning of this bilateral cooperation. President Bush built upon a solid founda- tion. US-India relations grew stronger in Congress, too. In the 107th Congress, I chaired the Congressional Indian Ambassador to the United States Nirupama Rao flanked by Congressmen Joe Crowley, left, and Ed Royce, right, at the House India Caucus reception. Starting with only eight members, the Congressional Caucus on India and has become one of the largest in the Caucus on India and Indian Americans. Starting with House, with over 200 members. only 8 members, we built the Caucus to become one of the largest in the House, with over 200 members. But few have done more to advance US-India relations than Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, who will come to Washington, DC later this month for his final visit as Do not take this important prime minister. Traveling to India in 2007, I had the opportunity to meet with Prime Minister Singh to discuss the progress made over the past several years. He told me the gains in the US-India relationship were “irreversible.” relationship for granted The premiere initiative in bringing our countries closer together has been the US-India Civil Nuclear Agreement, the product of strong cooperation by President Bush and billion in 2012 from roughly $11 billion in 1997. India has too. Following the tragic 2008 Mumbai attacks, investiga- Prime Minister Singh. benefited from foreign investment, international competi- tors from both countries stood shoulder-to-shoulder in India needs additional electricity to fuel its growing tion, and access to markets abroad. response. economy, and officials in India have told me about their Despite this remarkable economic progress, some policy Defense cooperation between the US and India has made ambitious plans to expand nuclear power as a clean ener- measures taken by the government of India have created impressive strides in the last decade. The India-US gy source. As I argued on the House floor, “Like in several concerns for US businesses. We are happy some of these Defense Policy Group was revived in 2001 and now meets other countries, nuclear energy is widely viewed as a criti- are being reviewed by the Indian government. annually. In 2005, the United States and India signed a 10- cal technology, one central to uplifting hundreds of mil- For example, India has rolled back its Preferential year defense pact, which outlines planned collaboration in lions of impoverished Indians.” Market Access initiative, which otherwise would have multilateral operations and expanded defense trade. The With this deal, the Indian nuclear industry will be able required Indian businesses and government offices to pro- two countries signed an agreement in 2011 to increase the to reach its full potential, overcoming the international cure technology products and services produced in India sharing of cyber-security and terrorism information. restrictions that have curtailed it since 1974. India will that could severely limit choices in India and hurt trade Prime Minister Singh’s final official visit will be an still rely on other energy sources, but it is smart policy for between India and the rest of the world, including the important bookend to an historic period of US-India rela- any country to diversify. United States. tions. Earlier this year, the Foreign Affairs Committee’s India’s energy demands continue to grow. Already the I hope the US can further engage with India in interna- Asia subcommittee held a hearing on where India fits into fourth-largest energy consumer in the world, India needs tional forums like the World Trade Organization. I also the President’s ‘pivot’ to Asia. As we heard, many fear that more electricity generation to alleviate rolling blackouts hope that India will join the WTO Information India doesn’t have the prominent position it deserves. and increase access to electricity. Here we have an oppor- Technology Agreement expansion talks. ITA expansion President Obama would be wise not to take this impor- tunity to further strengthen energy cooperation between would reduce overall tariffs, helping to accelerate produc- tant relationship for granted. Prime Minister Singh our two nations. tivity and lower prices. helped usher in a new period of US-India According to a recent study by the Center for Strategic As noted by Robert Hoffman from the Information cooperation. Let’s make sure we build on his impressive International Studies, India imports 75 percent of its Technology Industry Council, ‘for every $1 in tariffs India legacy. energy. With the US poised to become a major exporter of imposed on tech imports… it incurred an economic loss of natural gas, now is the time to expand US exports of liq- $1.30 due to decreased productivity.’ uefied natural gas. This would create jobs and stimulate ITA expansion would be in India’s best interests and US Congressman Ed Royce, who is economic growth in both the US and India. would help US companies as well, expanding their market serving his 11th term in Congress repre- Of course, Prime Minister Singh, as finance minister, in the vibrant country. senting Southern California’s 39th was instrumental in ushering in India’s economic The US and India are most aligned on defense and District, is Chairman of the House reforms. India’s booming economy resulted from opening counterterrorism efforts. For over a decade, the two coun- Foreign Affairs Committee. He has up to the world and making massive reforms 15 years ago. tries have worked to deepen counterterrorism coopera- served on the Committee since entering Trade between the US and India has leapt to almost $63 tion. The terrorists targeting India are targeting the US Congress in 1993. US-India The Way Forward

M6 THE MAGAZINE India Abroad September 27, 2013 Ambassador RONEN SEN, during whose tenure the India-US relationship improved beyond recognition, evaluates the progress since in this frank interview with SHEELA BHATT.

ne of India’s most cerebral diplomats, Ronen Sen played a stellar role in taking India-United States relations to another level as India’s Ambassador to Othe US, during the crucial years, 2004 to 2009. Ambassador Sen’s tenure intersected with the second Bush term when the President decided to erase India’s nuclear pariah status and transform the US-India associa- tion for the better, likely forever. For Ambassador Sen, who served as his nation’s envoy in the most important capitals of the world before coming to the US, his tenure in Washington will always be remem- bered for what it achieved in a relationship long dormant, KEVIN LAMARQUE/REUTERS yet bristling with possibility. President George W Bush signs the United States-India Nuclear Cooperation Approval and Non-proliferation Enhancement Act during a ceremony in Four years after he returned to New Delhi, Ambassador the East Room of the White House in Washington October 8, 2008. Standing from, left, Representative Joe Crowley, then Secretary of State Sen discusses the nuclear agreement, which he shepherded Condoleezza Rice, then Senator John Warner, then Energy Secretary Sam Bodman and then Indian Ambassador to the US Ronen Sen. through many obstacles, the India-US relationship and where it is headed with India Abroad. Would you agree that, despite occasional problems, for the first time since Independence, the last decade-and-a-half has ‘The relationship seen the closest ties between India and the US? Contrary to popular perceptions, the collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War did not usher in closer has been consolidated and India-US relations. India was peripheral in US priorities till the 1998 nuclear tests and the exposure of Pakistani perfidy at Kargil in 1999. President Bill Clinton’s five-day visit to India and five hour stop-over in Pakistan in 2000 reflected our cooperation broadened’ US recognition of the realities in our region. The most rapid transformation of India-US relations was, tion, civil space cooperation and cooperation in dual use was that negotiations on the text were inconclusive till the however, between 2004 and 2008 — starting with the joint technologies, apart from missile defense consultations. last moment. announcement of the Next Steps in Strategic Partnership, Phase 1 of the NSSP was completed the month after my It was the same touch-and-go situation during President NSSP, by Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee and arrival in the US, and so were the remaining two phases in Bush’s visit to India in March 2006, when the joint state- President George W Bush in 2004 and the signing of the the following year. ment was finalized literally minutes before the press confer- historical civil nuclear deal in October 2008. The dramatic announcement of the civil nuclear initiative ence by the two leaders. This happened again and again on Since then, the relationship has been consolidated and our during our prime minister’s first visit to Washington, DC in a number of critical occasions right up to our prime minis- cooperation broadened under the guidance of Prime July 2005, was preceded by the signing of an important ter’s final meeting with President Bush in end September Minister Manmohan Singh and President Obama. long term framework for defense cooperation in June 2005 2008. You were ambassador to the US during the crucial period, by our then defense minister and his It was only after President Bush signed the India-US 2004 to 2009. What were the parameters within which you counterpart Donald Rumsfeld. Civil nuclear and defense nuclear deal into law on October 8, 2008, and the reassur- were working during your assignment? What was the brief cooperation are, by their very nature and long term perspec- ances in his signing statement, that the deal was signed a given to you by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh? tive, major manifestations of a truly strategic partnership. couple of days later. I was asked to try to reverse the negative legacies of the You mentioned the nuclear deal, which was a game-chang- There were strong lobbies in both countries. The non-pro- Nixon and Carter administrations, representing the worst er in India-US relations. What was the background and cir- liferation hardliners had, and continue to have, powerful phases of India-US relations. The Nixon legacy was that of a cumstances under which both governments moved in work- influence in the US as well as in other countries in the 45 US-Pakistan- axis, symbolized by the presence of the ing out this deal? nations Nuclear Suppliers Group. This influence was USS Enterprise in the Bay of Bengal during the 1971 There were obviously pressure groups in both countries, reflected in some clauses of the enabling Hyde Act of 2006 Bangladesh liberation war. Carter’s contribution was the as well as resistance from many other countries, which and subsequent documents, which we did not accept. unilateral abrogation of the Tarapur agreement by retroac- made negotiations very difficult, and the process took over a We finally overcame obstacles that, on several occasions, tive application of US Congressional legislation in 1978, fol- thousand days to complete. appeared to be insurmountable, both in the US Congress lowing our 1974 nuclear test, and setting up an internation- The initiative was so bold, so breathtaking in its audacity, and the NSG. al regime to isolate India. that most people were stunned by its first announcement in However, while being tied up in knots in technicalities By coincidence, I was personally closely involved in India’s July 2005. and legal details, many people did not realize that the response to both these missions. On the nuclear issue, I was On that evening in the White House, two prominent nuclear deal was not just about nuclear energy. It was a his- instructed by our prime minister to complete and build on Senators told me that they were most unhappy about not torical landmark in bilateral relations that held the promise the NSSP process initiated by his predecessor, Prime being kept in the loop. They reflected the sentiments on Minister Vajpayee, which envisaged civil nuclear coopera- both sides of the aisle in both Houses in Congress. The fact Page M8 US-India The Way Forward

THE MAGAZINE M7 India Abroad September 27, 2013 Former Ambassador to the US NARESH CHANDRA discusses the trajectory of the India-US relationship with SHEELA BHATT in this eloquent interview.

ne of India’s most distinguished civil ser- vants, someone who served as the country’s Cabinet Secretary, the head of the Indian Administrative Service, during the tumul- tuous early 1990s, arguably Naresh Chandra’s most challenging assignment cameO in the days and months following India’s nuclear tests in May 1998. When he arrived in Washington, DC two years earlier, as India’s ambassador to the United States, India-US relations were tentatively finding its way after the long and difficult Cold War years. No one expected it to go South soon enough. ALEX WONG/GETTY IMAGES It is to Naresh Chandra’s eternal credit that he President Barack Obama, right, and Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh at the Nuclear Security Summit April 12, 2010, in steered the ship calmly through the angry and Washington, DC. The delay in realization of the civil nuclear agreement after India came out of the nuclear apartheid regime is stormy waters of sanctions and threats after the among the areas of concern between the countries. nuclear tests, till both nations embarked on a new Inset, Ambassador Naresh Chandra. adventure called the Next Steps in Strategic Partnership, which eventually led to the achieve- ments during the Bush Presidency and President Obama describing the India-US relationship as a defining one for the 21st century. ‘For the next year or two, Ambassador Naresh Chandra, who continues to remain engaged with India-US relations, studies the current equa- tion in an eloquent interview with India Abroad’. What are the reasons behind the current drift in the India- it has to be normal US relationship? The biggest factor is that both governments are preoccu- pied with very urgent issues. Although the doors of oppor- tunities are open, there are different priorities for both business and wait for the countries. In the US, because of the economic turndown, local politics is gaining much more weight. President Obama has a lot of excess baggage, which Clinton didn’t have because in his time the economy, the right opportunity’ employment situation, was alright. Whoever is in charge of the administration has to be much more sensitive to local reached a plateau even in exploiting the great opportunities some kind of stable equilibrium between the two. issues, so there is a feeling in India that the free movement that exist in business and trade. The US tactics was to deal with the Af-Pak situation of persons or the visa issue, they can’t get the type of targets And while some proposals have gone through — and which, in parts, runs counter to Indian interests. There is that our companies were hoping for. these are big ticket items like transport aircraft and other only so much that an administration, with its four-year life One thing which needs to be noted is that whatever equipment which we have got from the US — on many key span, can do to accommodate Indian concerns. So, the US restricted policies the US adopts, they are not India-centric. defense issues, the US side feels the progress leaves much to feels — ‘After we have tried to be so friendly and declared These are general policies. But on many occasions it is the be desired. them as strategic partners’ — India does not support US Indian side which gets hurt the most. So, they feel that There are problems on both sides which should be moves, in the UN, and only reluctantly follows — if there ‘Look we went for a strategic partnership and economic worked out. The great opportunity that exists in transfer- are any resolutions or sanctions — in the United Nations partnership, but what have we gained?’ ring technology from the US side to Indian entities is held Security Council. The US side has a similar perception because of the lack up because of the undue insistence of piping everything We have to realize that there are differences. On Iran of a majority in Parliament of the current government it is through India’s public sector undertakings or the defense there are solid differences, and it is very difficult to manage. not able to push the legislation necessary to execute its ministry. The very restricted and impractical offset policy is I think the government of India has been doing quite well. reform agenda. organized by the Indian ministry of defense. But as (India’s Petroleum Minister M) Veerappa Moily On the US side, it is. ‘Look we stretched our neck out to In the strategic area, there are problems which cannot be pointed out if we continue to follow and take US concerns help India come out of the nuclear apartheid regime.’ The ignored. For some years, the US had other engaging issues fully on board, and not import oil from Iran, it will cost us civil nuclear agreement pushed the very difficult legislation on hand: Its plan to withdraw from Afghanistan; the US billions of dollars. An arrangement that can be worked out through both Houses of Congress, but American companies was dealing with the consequences of the Arab Spring; the in rupees to manage our balance of payments is very much have got nothing in return and no business has resulted. happenings in Syria; the old problem of Israel and the in India’s interest. In terms of trade relations, the balance is in favor of the Middle-East; their relations with Iran, and finally the Now it remains to be seen how much accommodation is US anyway. The trade has been expanding, but not as fast biggest problem of them all, which is terror-related, is how as with China, so there is a feeling that we have sort of to deal with Pakistan and Afghanistan and how to keep Page M10 US-India The Way Forward

M8 THE MAGAZINE India Abroad September 27, 2013

Page M6 Kalam would not have otherwise sup- ported it. Nor would other patriots like of a tectonic geostrategic shift in the balance our first National Security Advisor, of power. Brajesh Mishra. I could understand the opposition from All international deals involve some some Leftist friends in India, but not the quid pro quo. What was the reservations of some national Opposition prime US interest in granting India such party leaders who appeared to have lost a special privilege? their earlier policy moorings and wanted to Whatever one says of George W Bush, disown their own legacy. he acted on the basis of his convictions. There were difficulties in India. The And he was convinced that this deal was Congress party itself, by tradition and histor- the right thing to do, and used all his ically, has not been enthusiastic about closer political capital to push it through in the ties with America. How did its leadership twilight period of his stay in the White come on board? House. There were certainly difficulties in India, Even when I was in Britain, some peo- in our Parliament. But do not underestimate ple had told me of the fascination which the difficulties in the US Congress either. LARRY DOWNING/REUTERS George W Bush had for India. A fascina- Both of us are democracies. We sometimes From left, then President George W Bush, then United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan and Indian Prime tion of a very large, very diverse country think our problems begin and end at home. Minister Manmohan Singh attend the launch of the UN Democracy Fund in New York in 2005. According to meeting formidable development chal- We sometimes tend to overlook that even in Ronen Sen, Bush’s approach to India was never purely transactional, but what both countries could do together lenges through democratic governance. bilateral relations, several interests of several for the world. It was thus not accidental that Bush and Singh launched the UNDF. Bush’s approach was never purely players could be at stake, and these are con- transactional. Values mattered to him. stantly at play. This was true then and it remains So did the power of ideals and ideas. His even more so now. approach was not just what both countries could The Congress party has never been monolithic ‘The relationship has been do for each other, but what they could do togeth- in its approach on all foreign, security and eco- er for the world. nomic issues. It has never been that way. Some It was thus not accidental that Bush and people remain ensconced in a time warp, and consolidated and our Manmohan Singh launched the UN Democracy find it difficult to accept that the world has Fund and that India and the US are the largest changed over the decades and so has India. contributors to this global initiative. Just after the first Non-aligned Summit in cooperation broadened’ There was no behind the scenes understanding 1961, the majority of the NAM leaders were non- or any quid pro quo on the nuclear, defense or aligned between India and China in 1962. (Then Indian The job was daunting for several reasons. First, the other strategic agreements. However, in any relationship, prime minister Jawaharlal) Nehru turned to the US for intense lobbying against the deal had to be countered. there is always give and take. military aid and gave base facilities for US surveillance on Second, what we wanted was not only US Congressional The most durable relationships are based on mutual China and approved cooperation with Taiwan. approval. We wanted Congress, for the first time, to suspend understanding and benefit. Not many are aware that ’s decision to visit its own rules of procedure for approving the agreement. Did a mutual understanding include India’s vote the US before the USSR in the early 1980s was a strategic This was needed because of its much delayed submission against Iran in the International Atomic Energy Agency? decision, nor of Rajiv Gandhi’s special equation with Ronald since we took our own time in UPA-Left consultations. No. The Hyde Act had a non-operative clause expecting Reagan. Some prominent Congressmen had strongly Finally, it was not easy to introduce this in the India’s active participation in US efforts to isolate and sanc- opposed Rajiv Gandhi’s path-breaking visit to China in Congressional agenda in its few final days at the height of tion Iran. We did not accept this clause or some other provi- 1988. the Presidential campaign and in the midst of its preoccu- sions. Whatever the internal debate at that time, the fact pation with emergency economic stabilization legislation in In fact, I told some Senators and Congressmen that if they remains that UPA-1 (India’s United Progressive Alliance in the wake of the worst financial crisis since the 1930s. expected unquestioned Indian support for US positions on its first term) had ultimately rallied around Manmohan We overcame all these extraordinary odds, and that too any issues, including on Iran, they should vote against the Singh and put its survival as a government at stake because with a 85 percent Senate majority and 70 percent House deal. Having said that, if we expect the US to take our con- of its decision to go ahead with the nuclear deal. majority vote. cerns into account on issues of vital interest to us, we should Our people’s verdict after that demonstration of unified India’s nuclear experts, particularly Department of Atomic not be insensitive to US concerns either. The Iran votes and decisive leadership was clear. Energy’s retired and serving officers, felt at that time that were, however, primarily influenced by other factors, includ- Your attitude and motivation was questioned at a critical Ronen Sen never understood the issue. The issue was that ing Iran’s behavior at that time. time. What was the most difficult part of your job? there was some sort of cap coming on India’s atomic Surely there would have been some motivation, including All that is history. I agreed to stay on for an extended weapons capacities. that of large contracts for US companies? tenure to complete an unfinished job. This would have been I fully appreciated their concerns and apprehensions. I If this was indeed a major motivation, why did the Bush impossible without the leadership of our prime minister was part of our atomic energy establishment when the US administration put in such a colossal effort to push through and President Bush. My role in the negotiations was negligi- Congress adopted a law retrospectively overturning the the NSG exception for India a month before the India-US ble. My primary task was to get US Congressional approval. Tarapur agreement. I was there when Carter was caught deal was cleared? This cleared the way for all countries to My colleagues and I worked round the clock and had indi- saying off-mike in Delhi that he would send a tough and enter into contracts and agreements with India. vidual and collective meetings with nearly half the Senators blunt letter to Morarji Desai. The India-France nuclear agreement was, in fact, signed and Congressmen, including in their constituencies. At a time when the US took the lead to establish an inter- before the India-US deal and the India-Russia agreement The Indian-American community played a pivotal role national regime to isolate India, I prepared all notes sent by followed. One of the two major US companies is a wholly and worked unitedly, transcending the political affiliations the then Chairman of the Atomic Energy Commission to owned Japanese subsidiary, and the other also has a signifi- in the US or in India. Why did they do so? Not everyone successive prime ministers. cant Japanese stake-holding. understood all the intricacies. But they all knew that some- For over a decade-and-a-half, I dealt at the policy level Nonetheless, in September 2008 we reached an agree- thing extraordinary, something truly transformational, was with our civilian and military nuclear projects. The main ment with the US for procuring nuclear power reactors happening. concern of some of our scientists, most of whom I held in from the US and also agreed to sign the Vienna Convention And at a very basic level, they thought that something so the highest regard, was that our strategic program would be which exempts suppliers from liability. The nuclear liability strongly resisted by Pakistan and China must have some- adversely affected. The fact is it was not. law adopted in our Parliament adversely affected this prior thing intrinsically good for India. And that national good Nothing was done behind the back of the then AEC chair- was what ultimately mattered for them. man. Eminent scientists like former President (A P J Abdul) Page M9 US-India The Way Forward

THE MAGAZINE M9 India Abroad September 27, 2013

Page M8 Iranian Oil Minister Rostam Qasemi, right, with India’s Oil Minister M Veerappa Moily in New Delhi, international commitment with retro- May 27. spective effect. This is, however, not the While India has always made it clear that the US only case in recent years of our legisla- should not expect unquestioned Indian support for it tive, executive and judicial actions affect- positions on any issues, Ronen Sen says India should ing our prior international commitments not be insensitive to US concerns either. with a number of countries. It took over three years to finalize the mechanisms. It will be in the interests of nuclear deal, and it has been five years the US and India, and other countries since the deal was concluded. How long including those of ASEAN, Japan and South do you think it will take to finalize con- Korea, if India could be invited to join the tracts? Asia Pacific Economic Forum and the Trans- I am not sure. There have also been Pacific Partnership. some delays on the US side, in terms of It is high time we started thinking big, and post-Fukushima regulatory clearances. in strategic terms of our trade ties. But we should have moved faster. I hope Incremental steps taken in isolation will not we will see some sign of progress during help. our prime minister’s forthcoming visit When India gets closer to the US it has to to Washington, DC. take care of nuances. India is trying to safe- There were also greater US expecta- MANSI THAPLIYAL/REUTERS guard its interests because China is its imme- tions in terms of defense cooperation. diate neighbor with whom India cannot There was considerable disappointment afford an offensive type of relationship. The US about US firms not getting the large contract ‘The relationship has been is on the other side of the world. for multi-role combat aircraft. They did not In some respects, you are right. But even understand that, unlike our own past practice given its isolationist tendencies, with some and unlike most countries, major defense pro- consolidated and our exceptions, the US will for practical purposes, curement decisions in India are now appar- in terms of its political, economic and military ently no longer strategic decisions. role, remain a major player in the Indo-Pacific In fact, they are not even techno-economic cooperation broadened’ area despite its geographic distance. decisions, since the initial short-listing or Look, technologies are also moving fast. selection is done on technical parameters What difference will geographic distance only, and often without different weightage to different bold and unilateral action at Abbotabad, his three visits make in the context of cyber warfare, for instance. Can we requirements. to Afghanistan and not a single visit yet to Pakistan. This apply even 20th century, let alone 19th century logic, to This is water under the bridge. US companies have signed could, of course, change. today’s world? very substantial contracts in recent years, often single-ven- But, why are bilateral relations so lackluster? Talking of advanced technologies, why was India’s reaction dor contracts, and more are in the pipeline. There seem to be a loss of momentum. It is a certainly a so guarded to the revelation of the US intrusion into the pri- Defense cooperation has, however, not taken fully devel- matter of concern that the same constituents who were in vacy of millions in the world, including India, through its oped as envisaged in the 2005 agreement. Even in procure- the forefront of promoting this relationship, like members PRISM program? ments there are persistent irritants, and there is slow move- of both Houses in the US Congress or like corporate leaders Were you aware that the Indian embassy was specially tar- ment on technology transfers, co-production and so on. do not have the same level of interest. geted during your days in Washington, DC? The US can and should do more to treat India as a partner It is possible that prior consultations with the US and You have raised two separate issues. The first is about the and not merely as a client. other stakeholders on our preferential market access meas- massive scale interception of personal communications and We should also, on our own, revive and sign CISMOA and ures and persistent tax problems faced by some companies data of millions of ordinary people worldwide, including in LSA agreements. It will be in interest of both the countries could have averted problems posed to our companies by the US. to address such issues at a political level so as to frame a some provisions in the Senate immigration bill. Citizens of all democracies are naturally concerned about new long term defense agreement in 2015. Maybe a cumulative impact of it is that of the India story where the line should be drawn between providing security Do you feel there is a slowing down in India-US relations in losing its sheen. But, you can bridge the gap between per- and protecting privacy. recent years? Differences have appeared on ception and performance to a certain extent only. You can’t The second issue is that of surveillance of activities of for- Afghanistan and Pakistan, for instance. separate foreign, economic and security policies. They are eign countries and agencies, including the sovereign prem- I’m not in the know of our bilateral interactions at differ- inextricably intertwined. ises of embassies, or spying in common parlance. This has ent levels. From what little I know, there seems to have been In this whole situation, the biggest concern is uncertainty, been prevalent since ages. It would be naive to feign right- a decline in zeal and loss of momentum in the relationship. unpredictability. And also the direction in which our econo- eous indignation about such activities, where the con- Perhaps this is partly due to growing domestic preoccupa- my is headed. straints are not legal or even moral but the levels of techno- tions in both countries. Apart from Pakistan and Afghanistan, has logical ability and financial resources. In recent years, we had established a good practice with not China shaped India-US relations? I was not aware of PRISM or any such US programs dur- the US of prior confidential consultations and even close Without undermining the importance of other countries, I ing my stay in the US. However, my senior colleagues and I coordination of actions in our region, including on feel that the two most critical relations for India are those took it for granted that all conversations at the embassy or Afghanistan and Pakistan. with the US and China, for different reasons. at my residence, and phone calls or e-mails were being I hope that this has continued to be so, including on the Our greatest challenge is the management of these rela- monitored. controversial Doha Initiative on talks with the Taliban. We tionships, or rather inter-relationships, in the Asian and Anything typed on a computer was also not regarded as have long-term converging interests in the region. global architecture. US positions have vacillated, but a uni- secure, irrespective of its designated classification or distri- Our concerns about withdrawal of US combat forces and polar Asia is not in our interest, nor a US-China condomini- bution. This was not specific to my assignment in the uncertainties about the size and role of a um. Washington. I followed the same practice in Moscow, Berlin residual US military presence, if any, after 2014, are legiti- There is a clear convergence between India’s Look East and London during my ambassadorial assignments, and mate. Yet, as a fellow democracy, we need to appreciate the policy and the more recent US rebalancing in the Indo- also during visits to other countries. growing popular opposition in the US to boots on the Pacific region. The marked improvement of our relations Frankly, any savvy diplomat uses such covert surveillance ground in Afghanistan or in other conflict zones. with Japan holds great promise for the future. as an effective form of communication. After all, isn’t it Whatever his compulsions, President Obama appears to We have to dovetail and align economic, political and human nature to believe what you overhear more than what have no illusions about Pakistan. This was evident in his security policies in not only bilateral, but in multi-lateral you are told directly? US-India The Way Forward

M10 THE MAGAZINE India Abroad September 27, 2013 ‘For the next year or two, it has to be normal business and wait for the right opportunity’

Page M7 Their boys and girls are dying in Afghanistan. So, they have to make a deal with Pakistan to shown by the US to this very genuine see that their casualties are less or they are able problem that India has. to do what they came out to do. That was to liq- Of course, the Indian contacts are very uidate Al Qaeda and Osama bin Laden. good in Washington, the vis- Now there is a domestic political problem. its and return visits from the You can not keep thousands of young persons US-Indian sides are going from America in places their families have not on and this should continue. heard of, so there are politically compelled to But there is no question that draw them out. in recent years, the growth In the process, they are dealing with the devil, or the flow of our relation- but they have to sup with the devil so to speak, ship has slowed down. This and work out an arrangement they can live is not to say that the poten- with. Now the arrangement they have worked tial in any way has lessened. out with Pakistan is definitely an irritation for Has this slowdown any- the Indian side and a matter of concern, but you thing to do with President know something of that kind we have to accept Obama’s personality and his as a given. Every country does it. leadership style as also the weak leader- The problem is that India judges the US by a ship in Delhi? higher standard, and the US judges India by a It happens in diplomacy. Personality higher standard. This a problem, but also a plays a part. You can’t divorce personali- compliment that we expect better from each ties from the environment in which they other. And this highest expectation is not there are operating. Secretary of State John Kerry, center, with foreign ministers at the ASEAN security JACQUELYN MARTIN/REUTERS with any other country. Please reflect on this. So if you have a President who has conference in Brunei, July 1. Inset, Kerry in India. Don’t you think when the world was urgent concerns to get re-elected, which America continues to be a superpower, but it also recognizes that it is very difficult for it to solve a problem changing, India overestimated America’s role on was happening in the last year, it was a by itself. It needs the cooperation of regional powers. the global stage and America overestimated constraint. And the prospect of losing a India’s market capacity? majority in either House of Congress is something which perfect alignment in priorities and perceptions between I don’t think India overestimated the US’s role. Everybody the President has to take on board. nations, especially India and the US who are so far apart. knows America continues to be a superpower in the sense Similarly on the Indian side, if you have problems push- So, there are differences and there are commonalities. that it has the largest amount of resources to bring to any ing legislation in the Upper House, the Rajya Sabha, then it The common thing is, and which is very basic, is the struc- negotiating table. Not only in economic terms, but also in limits your options. The other thing is that in India when it ture of the society and the people. If you see all over the military terms. comes to policy, including foreign policy, it is not the func- world, there are hardly any countries, except for the US and If you take the US defense budget and the defense budget tion of one individual leader. We have to take on board, not India, which are so multi-lingual, multi-religious, and large. of the next 15 countries you know what we are talking only the Opposition parties, but also the opposition within With the break up of the Soviet Union I think they have about. The numbers speak for themselves. your own party. lost that characteristic. Russia does not have the same kind We have to recognize that in terms of numbers, the Take the Congress party. There are lots of groups having a of multi-cultural society now that India and the US have. strength of market, military strength and budget, the US different take not only on foreign policy issues, but even on So when you have this kind of a multi-cultural and multi- stands alone, quite apart. The capacity for the US to exert economic issues in domestic politics. lingual society, then very narrow considerations or things in its influence and power in all parts of the world has dimin- When you deal with powers like the US, there are political a uni-dimensional way do not dictate the manner in which ished because other powers have risen, the gap is narrow- parties who have very strong views or preconceived notions you conduct your affairs. ing. on this subject. You have to see the fallout of that kind of There is inclusiveness, there is a tendency to take all kinds China has created a new situation; India has not done too opposition. of opinions on board, and that leads to a more broad-based badly in terms of economic growth. So, what is the situation Still, I would say that personalities do matter. It is better human approach, not only in domestic matters, but also in today? It is very difficult for the US to get out of any strate- for India if a person like Hillary Clinton was Secretary of world affairs. gic area and also very difficult for the US to stay there on its State. It helps in different stages of negotiation. Personal Second, we are far apart geographically and if you go into own terms. intervention can make things move. the nitty-gritty we do not threaten the US and they don’t It’s also very difficult for the US to solve a problem by America and India have fundamental differences. threaten India in a direct situation. Indirectly, when dealing itself. It needs the cooperation of regional powers. So the Their South Asia policy and our regional interests don’t with our neighbors, as you rightly say, the approaches are game has slightly changed and I think India is aware of it. match. Whatever is good for the Americans in Pakistan is not perfectly aligned, they can never be. On the US side it is not a case of overestimation, but of not necessarily good for India. When we want every action in Pakistan which eases our expectation. They expected a more open Indian market and America and China’s relationship is also an issue. In terrorist and infiltration problem the US is present in their faster growth. They make no bones about it. the South China Sea our nuances and America’s expecta- area, we are not. So they have to protect their plan of action Now we, for various reasons, we have contrary views on tions are different and because geographically China is right and they have to protect their security of transport as well the subject. The Reform School says growth is very good, on India’s border, and it is not so with America, American as their manpower. others says it should be inclusive growth, other Indians says concerns and our concerns will remain different. They have two options — either to invade and conquer no, common man first. These are fundamental and permanent differences, which Pakistan which is not an option or to deal on mutually So we see contradictions where none exist. I think with- are not reconcilable. acceptable terms. I don’t think the Indians do not know out growth, what will you be able to do for the common In view of that, how do you see this strategic partner- that Americans are very unhappy with the terms and condi- man? But there are some guys who say ‘No, no, you’re just a ship going forward, and how can we say that we are nat- tions they have to accept. But please realize we would have votary for growth, nobody cares for the poor.’ ural allies? done the same. So, when they act in a manner which is very That is a fair analysis. It can never happen that there is practical we judge them for very noble standards. Page M11 US-India The Way Forward

THE MAGAZINE M11 India Abroad September 27, 2013 ‘For the next year or two, it has to be normal business and wait for the right opportunity’

Page M10 tionship? I don’t see any miraculous breakthrough taking place. For This is another hackneyed phrase I hear all the time — the next year or two it has to be normal business and wait the rich are getting richer, the poor are getting poorer, I for the right opportunity to strike. We have to be continu- don’t know on what statistics it’s based. But these are the ously engaged at the business level because you know it problems the government of India has to deal with. seems that the US economy is going to get over the slump it We need to accept that we have not performed, and peo- has been in. It has concerns for us. ple feel we will not be able to perform to the expectations Once they go up the growth trajectory, they will need a lot others had of India. of investment dollars. So the expectation that we had that How is America’s future trajectory with China and India’s FDI (Foreign Direct Investment) will come to India in dol- trajectory with the US poised? lars may not happen. We kick investors around in every way Do you think China fears that there is a kind of common possible. That is not going to happen anymore. cause which India and US can strike? At the same time the demand created in the American Is the fear of China’s containment real? market will help us provided we get our manufacturing We feel it’s exaggerated. People forget that a large chunk going. If we don’t have export surpluses, if we shut down of China’s territory is what is called the Tibetan mining and we discourage manufacturing, then I am afraid Autonomous Region. Now anything that affects their sover- we will only get disadvantages of the situation and we will eignty on Tibet and that area makes them very concerned not be able to derive any advantage from the US upsurge. because that’s a huge part of their territory and it is through Do you think India is balancing the US business well? the TAR that they neighbor India, Nepal, Pakistan and so We are trying to. But you know very often we take a stand on. And they think they are not 100 percent there because which is very time consuming and slow. there is a (Tibetan) government in exile on Indian soil. So, I think in the area of defense cooperation we overlook the these facts cannot be wished away. fact completely that there is a lot of advantage to be gained China also feels that in its capacity to deal and negotiate in getting access to sensitive military technology which is with countries in Asia on their own terms gets inhibited available in the US and in dealing with that I think we are because of India’s strength. They do not want that Indian very bureaucratic; not that the US is not bureaucratic. factor to become some kind of a forceful factor in their On the US side, the cutting edge technology in the mili- bilateral relations with Malaysia, the ASEAN countries, tary area is largely financed by Congress and the point of Vietnam and so on. Congress is that ‘Look, we have paid for it to give advantage

They also feel their natural animosity with the Japanese JIM YOUNG/REUTERS to our boys you can’t just sell it off like that.’ So the laws are could be used in some kind of a three-member axis of George W Bush against the backdrop of the Purana Qila very strict. The Arms Export Act and the regulations in the Japan, the US and India. The Indian side knows their inter- in New Delhi in 2006. The former President had great regard for Indian US are a very difficult minefield to negotiate through. ests and concerns, and we know that the Chinese concerns democracy. I have done this for three, four years, so I can tell you. The are exaggerated. problem is that the US administration and officials are held For China to feel that the US will try to use Indian Indian side has to realize that if you want something you in like hell by laws and rules in exporting technology. On strengths is understandable, but I think it is a bit have to pay for it. our side when they open the door, we don’t wish to comply overblown. So, if you want these liabilities to be taken, the supplier is with those rules and regulations. So the thing becomes stale China is the invisible elephant in the room whenever not going to take it for free because nobody is in the busi- bait. Both sides have to find creative solutions to get over bilaterals are taking place concerning Asia. I think the gov- ness of driving himself out of business. So they will supply this problem. ernment of India is wisely attempting to improve relations only when they feel it’s economically profitable. We will do Was it difficult to deal with the Americans? with China. If you allow your relations with any big player the same. So either the consumer of the electricity pays the US officials have a very clear cut delegation of power and to go down below a certain level, then it limits your capacity insurance premium or the supplier pays. If the supplier authority. So our side has to very quickly realize that at this to deal with others. pays he’ll add it to his cost. point, nothing further is possible. There is no use wasting Because others would know you’re stuck on this one, they I think much of the debate that is taking place does not time, because the guy doesn’t have the remit. So you have to can play their cards better. We need to be careful that even make much business sense. Because the discussion I saw in go on trying to interest higher and higher levels. Otherwise, with our adversaries we don’t allow relations to deteriorate Parliament was like we will be able to load the liabilities on you remain locked. below an acceptable level. the supplier to pay for it. That doesn’t make business sense Unless you have access to the higher authority, the And if there is a scope to improve relations under the cir- to me. It may sound very patriotic, but that’s the end of it. Secretary of State or the White House, unless they inter- cumstances it must be seized and taken forward because in After the civil nuclear agreement a new situation has got vene, things cannot change at the table. Because the capaci- the long term that is in our interest. created which has allowed greater freedom for India not ty to innovate or find a way at the level of an Assistant So, to live in a situation that they will always be unfriend- only to deal with suppliers of nuclear material, with Secretary or Deputy Secretary of State is not there. They ly, that they will always attack our position, is a self defeat- Australia and Canada and all that, to get help for the civil- may report and get orders. That’s it. Otherwise, everything ing proposition. Your job is to change that situation. And ian power generation. But it has also taken us out of a cate- is on e-mail, everything is on record. that’s a very important segment of diplomatic policy. gory which was outside the nuclear regime. Internally, they are transparent with each other. Not only Do you think the nuclear deal’s ambitious agenda has fall- We were neither members of the NPT (nuclear Non just vertically, but horizontally as well. In our case we have a en off? Proliferation Treaty), we had not signed, nor we were a file system. So the coal ministry might not tell the Prime No. The ball is in play — because we have been very slow nuclear power. We were somewhere in between. So what Minister’s Office what is going on. It cannot happen there. at it we have not even signed up with France and Russia this agreement has done is that it has formalized and recog- It just cannot happen there. except for the one that is still going on in Koodankulam (the nized that India is a declared Nuclear Weapon State. Do you miss President Bush? nuclear plant in southern Tamil Nadu). So, it is not that the When it comes to nuclear power generation I think both President Bush for some reason had great regard for slow pace is something that relates to the US only. sides are at fault. Our guys may have a very good case, but Indian democracy. Although he was tough on many issues The suppliers’s liability insurance is a problem, and we they cannot deny the fact that we have been very slow. all over the world, his interventions when it came to Indian have not been able to crack it so far because I think the How do you see the short-term future of the India-US rela- issues were very helpful, no question about it. US-India The Way Forward

M14 THE MAGAZINE India Abroad September 27, 2013

Members of the Congressional Caucus on India and Indian-Americans meet with visiting members of the Indian Parliament in the US Capitol in The future of the US-India June. According to Congressman Joe Crowley, seventh from right, back row, the US-India partnership that seemed like an impossibility in the relationship is based on 1990s to all but those who were active in the India Caucus and the administration, today looks irreversible. something intangible, but in plentiful supply: The belief that our destinies are intertwined, says US Representative JOE CROWLEY.

s an Irish-American, I have always been interest- ed in India. Why? Maybe it is the stories I heard growing up about our similar, difficult histories with colonial-era Britain or because of the famil- ial history I share with my Indian-American friendsA — whose families, like mine, left all they know behind to come here to start a better future for their chil- dren. My interest has lasted for so long that it is hard to know the exact starting point, but what I do know for sure is if the United States and India work together we can form the most influential and responsible big-country alliance in the world. For this reason, I have made it one of my goals to help COURTESY: CROWLEY.HOUSE.GOV US-India ties blossom ever since I was elected to the US Congress. In the late 1990s, even beginning that effort seemed like an impossibility to all but those of us who were active in We have simply come too far the India Caucus and the administration. Today, it looks increasingly like the US-India partnership is irreversible. We have simply come too far together to turn back, and the US’s encouragement of India as a global power has together to turn back become a cornerstone of regional and international coop- eration. For those of us who consider ourselves decidedly crete results that will further the two nations’ relationship. cess breeds success. pro-India, this is a victory a long time in the making. Our members led the way on the passing of the nuclear Over time, more and more Congress members have seen This is not to say that we don’t have important shared pact in the House and Senate. our efforts and joined the cause. This year, there are challenges, including fully completing the US-India civil Dozens of our members have pressed successive adminis- already over 40 brand-new members of the India Caucus, nuclear agreement, overcoming barriers to economic trations to share critical intelligence with India regarding with more on the way. growth, expanding educational opportunities, cementing potential threats from terror groups, especially after the India’s Ambassador Nirupama Rao has played a critical defense co-production and addressing environmental chal- devastating Mumbai attacks. Many are working to secure role in our efforts, advancing India’s interests as well as lenges. stronger energy cooperation, both to help reduce poverty encouraging new friends to see the potential in our rela- Good friends of the US-India relationship working with and to address key environmental problems. tionship. In addition, Indian-American leaders like M R the Wadhwani Chair at the Center for Strategic and Perhaps most importantly, our members are focused on Rangaswami, Shekar Narasimhan and so many others con- International Studies and the Center for American expanding commercial relations between our two coun- tinue to step forward with new and creative ideas for Progress have published a number of papers over the past tries, encouraging business delegations between cities and action inside and outside the Congress. As MR reminds two years outlining a number of ways to approach these states in the US and India that can lead to the creation of me, it is essential that our efforts focus on supporting all issues, and a common theme runs throughout: The sky is jobs and economic growth. those in our communities, not simply those that are really the limit for US-India relations. Earlier this year, members of the India Caucus helped already fortunate. As a Co-Chair of the Congressional Caucus on India and secure one of the most important victories for the Indian- More than anything, the future of the US-India relation- Indian-Americans, I have focused on a number of these American community in years, convincing the Department ship is based on something intangible, but in plentiful sup- issues. First, I have made every possible effort to maximize of Justice to begin tracking hate crimes against Hindu and ply: The belief that our destinies are intertwined. communications between Congress and the people of India. Sikh-Americans. The US faces many domestic challenges, including creat- Already this year, the India Caucus has hosted over 10 Policy steps aside, we have also focused on deepening ing jobs and continuing to recover from a painful econom- delegations of visiting Indian groups, including from the understanding between the people of the US and India. ic downturn. India faces its own challenges. But at the end Indian government, business and political communities. We have done this, in part, by celebrating our cultural, his- of the day, the governments and peoples in both of our We held detailed discussions with a politically diverse dele- torical and religious differences, and that’s why this countries wish each other well. gation of parliamentarians in a high-level exchange, and in October we are putting together the first-ever We not only believe each other will suc- late July we welcomed business leaders attending the US- Congressional Diwali celebration in the US House of ceed, but we want it to happen. It must. India CEO Summit, as well as the leader of the BJP, Representatives. Rajnath Singh. We have also planned several educational Taken together, these steps forward represent a record of events for Congressional staff members, including an concrete progress for the India Caucus and for the people US Representative Joe Crowley is the exchange with the Andhra Pradesh government. of our two countries. They show that the fruits of coopera- Vice Chair of the Democratic Caucus, the But the India Caucus isn’t just about maintaining a dia- tion far outweigh the costs of discord, and lay the founda- fifth-highest ranking position in the House logue. It is about continuing to expand and produce con- tion for even greater cooperation in the future. And, suc- Democratic Leadership. US-India The Way Forward

THE MAGAZINE M15 India Abroad September 27, 2013

he most important foreign policy development in the last decade has been the remarkable improve- ment in India’s relations with the United States. From mutual suspicion, lack of empathy and a The plateau is at a policy of keeping the relationship at a low level to avoidT giving the US too much leverage over India, we have moved to a relationship of mutual confidence, genuine engagement and belief that the two sides can develop con- high elevation today vergent strategic interests. The rhetoric accompanying this rapprochement is a little overblown on the US side, with President Obama describ- ing the India-US relationship as a defining one for the 21st The medium and longer term prospects remain very positive for century. What this might mean other than a strengthened relationship and greater convergence in the coming years is the India-US relationship, feels KANWAL SIBAL. unclear. The vision of India becoming such a major pole in global affairs that the India-US tandem will determine the config- uration of international relations, the principles governing them, the management of global commons and the consoli- dation of political and human values acceptable universally seems a little grandiloquent. India, on the other hand, uses more subdued vocabulary to describe the improving ties, emphasizing their trans- formed nature, which is a more realistic description of where they stand today. The Indian government, conscious that it is already being perceived as being too pro-US and aligning itself unduly with US interests, presumably feels the need to keep its rhetoric low-key so as not to invite criticism domestically and raise doubts externally about the independence of its foreign policy decision making. Nevertheless, the fact remains that for India, its relation- ship with the US has become the most important one. The range of engagement with the US, reflected in several dia- logues in diverse areas that the two countries are holding — whether it is in the field of energy, education, agriculture, health, development, science and technology, environment, trade, defense, counter-terrorism, non-proliferation, high technology and the like — far exceeds that with any other country. The landmark meeting of Pakistan President Yahya Khan with President Richard Nixon in 1969. India and the US have had to WIKIMEDIA COMMONS The objective is to build Indian capacities in a number of overcome a difficult legacy, much of it involving US ties with Pakistan, but overcome we have. sectors with US technology and know-how, a process that would help India to develop and grow even as the US gets and the misleading hype about its energy potential created has contributed to the sentiment in India that the US is greater access to the expanding Indian economy. by its supporters, the fact is that non-proliferation issues now ready to open the strategic space that India claims for India and the US have had to overcome a difficult legacy. blighting India’s bilateral relationship with the US and pit- itself. Actual membership will be a prolonged process and It can be argued that, over decades, the US has done much ted India against the majority of the international commu- will not depend on US alone, thought the US position on damage to India’s strategic interests by hamstringing its nity for decades have been removed from the agenda, which expansion will remain crucial. efforts to develop nuclear and missile technologies, impos- constitutes a solid political and diplomatic gain. The US attaches importance to the bilateral dialogue on ing sanctions on India in these areas, denying India high Flowing from this, India has been able to sign civilian global commons — air, space, sea and cyber. It is emphasiz- and dual use technologies, overlooking Pakistan’s acquisi- cooperation agreements with several other countries, ing the partnership with India in defining the rules. The tion of nuclear and missile technologies from China, politi- including Canada, with progress in negotiations with intention is to ensure that as India rises and seeks a change cally subverting Indian sovereignty over Jammu and Australia and hopeful prospects of an agreement with in the international rules so far defined by the West, it does Kashmir by interventions on Pakistan’s behalf, arming Japan. India has been able to secure raw uranium for its so closely with the US so that any disruptive initiatives get Pakistan against India, and unleashing Islamic extremism reactors, overcoming an immediate problem that the forestalled. in the region by its decision to use jihadi groups to fight the Indian nuclear sector faced. In addition, the US seeks burden-sharing in upholding Soviet Union in Afghanistan. As a result of the US-India nuclear deal, sanctions on the international system from which it feels others benefit Progress has been made, even though unevenly, in over- almost all Indian entities have been lifted and high technol- without assuming responsibility. The dialogue on the global coming this unfortunate legacy. ogy export controls for India have been eased to a degree. commons is intended to steer India towards burden-shar- The change in mutual perceptions began with the The US has committed itself to promoting India’s member- ing. Vajpayee government, with the then Indian leadership ship of the four technology denial regimes, namely, the In the maritime domain, freedom of navigation and speaking of India and the US as ‘natural allies’ and taking NSG, the Missile Technology Control Regime, the securing the sea lanes of communication are areas where the initiative to engage the US on divisive strategic issues, Wassenaar Agreement and the Australia Group, which the US would have particular interest in partnering India, especially nuclear and high technology ones. when it happens will integrate India into the global non- given India’s dominating position in the Indian Ocean and The slow progress being made was put into really high proliferation regimes as a non-NPT member. the steady expansion of its navy. gear by President Bush, leading to the 2005 India-US civil- India’s task will be to prod the US to implement this com- In the new area of cyberspace, cyber security has become ian nuclear deal and the Nuclear Suppliers Group exception mitment at the earliest and not use it as a bargaining point a matter of urgent international attention and India’s emer- for India, for which the US undoubtedly did the ‘heavy-lift- to extract more concessions from India in non-proliferation gence as a major IT power, along with the vast expansion of ing.’ related areas. its telecommunications network, makes India a partner of This deal, however controversial it became in India The US position on India’s permanent membership of the because of some crucial concessions extracted from India United Nations Security Council has evolved positively and Page M16 US-India The Way Forward

M16 THE MAGAZINE India Abroad September 27, 2013

Page M15 choice to establish new rules of the game. The plateau is at a high elevation today The dramatic change in India’s defense ties with the US in the last decade signifies a notable creates a potential security problem for India. reduction of the trust deficit between the two The US awareness of Pakistan’s double-dealing countries, given the history of US sanctions and on terrorism, highlighted by the shelter given to its practice of imposing arms embargoes in situa- Osama bin Laden on its soil and refusal to act tions of tension and conflict. against the Haqqani Network, has not resulted in any clear US policy of dealing with the country on In the last five years or so, the US has bagged the basis of its duplicitous conduct. orders worth about $9 billion, whether for C-130 The US continues its failed policy of offering and C-17 heavy lift aircraft, advanced maritime carrots to Pakistan, which include even military reconnaissance aircraft, attack helicopters and aid, in the hope of buying its cooperation. The VIP helicopters etc. The US lost out in the com- result is that Pakistan is able to manipulate the US petition for the 126 combat aircraft contract, a to serve its purpose in crucial areas despite under setback that it did not easily absorb, as it expects currents of tensions between the two countries. At a greater share of Indian defense procurements one stage it appeared that the US had de-hyphen- as a testimony of India’s seriousness in treating it ated India and Pakistan, especially in nuclear mat- as a long term strategic partner. India has ters, but the element of hyphenation has not alto- baulked at signing the inter-operability agree- gether disappeared, as the US does defer to ment (CISMOA), the logistics agreement (LSA) Pakistani sensitivities towards India to some and the agreement to have access to high defense extent. On the whole, though, it can be said that technology (BECA). India-US relations have in the last decade India remains reticent about tying up too much acquired a different trajectory than US-Pakistan with the US in the defense domain lest it is per- Chinese trawlers in the vicinity of the USNS Impeccable in the South US NAVY/REUTERS relations. ceived as having moved too much into the US China Sea, 2009. While caution is exercised in not making it appear that the US’ pivot to The Iranian issue has created wrinkles in the defense orbit and compromising the independence India is directed at China, the reality is that the latter’s muscle-flexing, as seen in the South bilateral relationship as US sanctions have interfered of its policies. The US is, wisely, no longer insisting China Sea, requires the US to reinforce its presence in Asia. with India’s energy security, forcing India to reduce on signing them, leaving India to decide as oppor- its oil intake from Iran quite drastically and impeding tune. any Indian investment in attractive long-term proj- What balances this reticence are the numerous joint mili- that undermines Indian interests. The principal US focus is ects in the oil and gas sector in Iran. The US linking of the tary exercises with the US involving the three arms. The on Al Qaeda and its affiliates, but not on the Taliban whom nuclear deal with India’s policy towards Iran and India’s naval exercises in the Indian Ocean area have been particu- the US seems ready to accommodate so long as it commits vote against Iran in the IAEA to satisfy US expectations larly elaborate, involving even aircraft carriers, submarines itself to cutting off its links with Al Qaeda and not permit have been factors in creating the perception that the US etc on both sides, which sends an important strategic mes- terrorism from areas under its control directed at the West. relationship carries costs in terms of independence of deci- sage because these waters are crucial for the trade and ener- For this reason India and the US have difficulty in sion-making. gy flows for China and other East Asian countries. The US, remaining on the same page on the Afghanistan issue, as The talk of strategic autonomy, which is a code word for India and Japan also held the first trilateral naval exercise well as on some aspects of US policies towards Pakistan, not aligning India with US/Western positions on interna- off the coast of Japan in 2012, though India is inexplicably whether it is the reluctance to apply the kind of pressure tional issues, unsurprisingly, finds disfavor in US circles, reticent about such trilateral exercises in the Indian Ocean. that Pakistan merits in view of its profound terrorist affilia- though for the first time an American leader, to wit US Vice The US move to establish a strategic partnership with tions to force it to break these links, or contain the ambi- President Biden, during his recent visit to India declared India, symbolized by the nuclear deal, has the rise of China tions of the Pakistani military in Afghanistan. US arms aid that he saw no contradiction between strategic autonomy an underlying motivation, though this is not acknowledged to Pakistan remains an issue, even though India downplays precious to India and India’s strategic partnership with the officially. Chinese commentators interpret this relationship it so as not to vitiate the atmosphere of the dialogue with US. as a move against China, though they find India’s attach- Pakistan. The last decade has also seen a significant expansion of ment to independent decision making as a reassuring ele- On Afghanistan, in the course of the decade, the US has India-US economic ties, with trade in goods standing at ment. moved from a seriously distorted analysis of the situation $62 billion and the total exchanges, including investment, The US has described India as a lynchpin of its pivot or that looked for a solution through a resolution of the amounting to over $100 billion, making the US the largest rebalancing towards Asia. While caution is exercised in not Kashmir issue to a more realistic position which took into economic partner of India. making it appear that this initiative is directed at China, the account Pakistan’s double-faced Afghan policy. The India-US bilateral economic agenda is, as noted earli- reality is that the rise of China and its growing muscle-flex- Initially, the US opposed any significant Indian presence er, is exceptionally wide-ranging. Progress has been slow in ing, as is evident in its conduct in the South China Sea, in Afghanistan because of Pakistani sensitivities but moved most areas, partly because the Indian reforms process has requires the US to signal its intention to maintain and rein- towards welcoming Indian economic assistance effort there slowed down, the ceilings on FDI in sectors of the economy force its presence in Asia to give confidence to its allies who and even seeking to do cooperative projects with India. The of interest to the US have not been raised and enabling leg- may otherwise seek accommodation with China at the US has discouraged India from defense cooperation with islation in areas like education has not been passed as yet. expense of the US. Afghanistan other than providing training to Afghan secu- These are areas, however, where reforms will undoubtedly In this the US clearly sees India as a vital partner given rity forces within limits, though the Afghan government is occur in time, with some movement to raise the ceilings in India’s several attributes that makes it a credible power to pressing India to even supply combat equipment. the financial sector. rival China in the years ahead. India, however, is wary of India has been able to establish its presence on the The prospects of nuclear cooperation with the US have this re-balancing strategy as it doubts the capacity and ground in Afghanistan because of the security cover provid- dimmed because of India’s nuclear liability act, much to the inclination of the US to contain China beyond a certain ed by the US. With the impending US withdrawal, India disappointment of the US side which had counted on large point because of the huge economic and financial interde- will face new challenges from the Taliban forces. The US opportunities for its companies in this sector. The US side pendence between the two countries. India would like to decision to open a dialogue with the Taliban disregards is pressing for signing an ‘early works agreement’ between avoid becoming collateral damage in an unclear US strategy India’s strong objection to any political accommodation Westinghouse and NPCIL to register some progress in the towards China. with it without insisting on the red lines laid down by the fulfillment of India’s commitment to the US to order On the issues of terrorism and religious extremism, while international community on the subject. The US decision to 10,000 MWs of nuclear power from US reactors at two bilateral cooperation in the area of counter-terrorism has leave Afghanistan in 2014 in conditions permitting an progressed, US policies have an element of ambivalence orderly withdrawal with the help of the Pakistani military Page M20 US-India The Way Forward

THE MAGAZINE M17 India Abroad September 27, 2013 While expectations for the US-India partnership are lower than they were four years ago, LISA CURTIS feels this is not entirely a bad thing.

ndian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s September 27 meetings in Washington are unlikely to generate the same level of enthusiasm as his November 2009 Ivisit. At that time, there were high expectations in Washington that India would play a crucial role in US for- eign policy, as evidenced by the fact that Singh made the first State-level visit of Obama’s first term. Four years later, US leaders have adopted a more meas- ured, and likely more realistic, view of the partnership. They have been chastened by stalled Indian economic reforms, lack of closure on the much-heralded civil nuclear deal, and modest levels of defense trade that have fallen short of expectations. The Indian parliament’s passage of nuclear liability legis- lation in August 2010 that complicated US companies’ abil- MANSI THAPLIYAL/REUTERS ity to participate in India’s civil nuclear sector and India’s A protest against possible US military action against Syria outside the US embassy in New Delhi, September 7. The decision over what to do decision in the spring of 2011 to buy French, rather than about Syria could become a distraction during the Obama-Singh meet, but the author believes both leaders should agree to disagree up front American, fighter jets came as major disappointments for and move on to other issues. the US Strategic Logic of Ties Still Stands Yet widen the lens beyond the bilateral sticking points to the broader Asian landscape and the logic behind a strong Indo-US partnership still stands. Restoring US confidence in Both India and the US share concerns about the growing maritime ambitions of China — a country that is party to disputes with virtually all of its neighbors. India also is feel- ing the pressure of China’s rise on its land borders, where the Relationship the Chinese have recently increased construction projects and fueled border tensions with assertive troop movements. Washington need each other now more than ever before. In peaking. US House and Senate Congressional committees US strategists generally believe that investing in India is particular, they have an interest in encouraging responsible recently requested the US International Trade Commission still worthwhile. But India should not take that support for Chinese behavior and peaceful management of its territorial to investigate the impact of Indian protectionist policies on granted. disputes and security of the Indo-Pacific waters. US exports and investments. Singh will need to demonstrate that Indian leaders also Push for Deliverables Staying Focused, Realistic value the importance of strategic ties with America. India’s The announcement of a new policy or initiative in the The decision over what to do about Syria could become a foreign policy has drifted over the last three years, and defense arena would certainly help overcome the feeling of distraction from the Obama-Singh meet. The fact that the some Indian policymakers and commentators have even malaise in the relationship. The two sides have been work- Obama administration and Singh government widely dis- lapsed into Cold War era-thinking, arguing that India ing diligently behind the scenes on the ‘Defense Technology agree on the issue might be difficult to paper over. should revive its policy of non-alignment as a way to bal- Initiative’ then Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta launched India says it will not support any military action against ance relations between the US and China. nearly a year ago. The initiative is aimed at streamlining Syria without the approval of the UN Security Council, The September 27 meeting with President Obama is an each country’s respective bureaucratic processes to encour- while President Obama has decided not to bring the issue opportunity for Singh to show the kind of pro-US stance he age more defense trade. to the UNSC, where Russia and China would undoubtedly so memorably displayed during his 2009 visit. In the midst The other area ripe for movement is the languishing civil veto it. Both leaders should agree to disagree up front and of the American financial crisis, the Indian prime minister nuclear agreement. Secretary of State John Kerry said dur- move on to other issues. went out of his way to show support for American power by ing his July visit to India that the two sides were close to While expectations for the US-India partnership are praising the resilience of the American economy and calling finalizing a commercial agreement between Westinghouse lower than they were four years ago, this is not entirely a the US economic downturn a ‘temporary setback.’ and the Nuclear Power Corporation of India that would bad thing. With a better understanding of each other’s core A close relationship with the US — not a military alliance allow preliminary work to be done in areas of licensing and concerns and limitations, the two sides can narrow their — will help India maintain its long-held tradition of exer- site development. focus to issues of overlapping interest, while avoiding areas cising strategic autonomy. Instead of keeping the US at The glacial pace of these negotiations has raised doubts in which there is little common interest. arm’s distance, with the hope of placating the Chinese, that US firms will ever gain access to India’s nuclear indus- With a narrower and more defined India should be drawing closer to the US in ways that solid- try, despite that US pressure was critical to obtaining the approach to the relationship, the two sides ify and build trust in the partnership, which will deter the Nuclear Suppliers Group waiver that allowed India to may find it easier to reach agreement on Chinese from pursuing a more aggressive posture toward receive nuclear technology and fuel for the first time in forty an issue or two. India. years. In a report released earlier this year by the Heritage Finally, the US is looking to India to take steps that will Foundation and the New Delhi-based Observer Research ameliorate US business concerns about Indian trade barri- Lisa Curtis is the Senior Research Fellow Foundation, titled Beyond the Plateau in US-India ers and foreign investment restrictions. Frustration within on South Asia at the Asian Studies Center Relations, researchers highlighted that New Delhi and the US business community and Congress on this issue is at the Heritage Foundation. US-India The Way Forward

M18 THE MAGAZINE India Abroad September 27, 2013

India’s post-Cold War strategy towards the US was shaped by Prime Ministers P V Narasimha Rao, left, Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Manmohan The Singh. As Rao’s finance minister, Singh, seated right, endorsed and shared his world- Challenge for view. Vajpayee took forward the relationship. issues. The US held out on supporting India’s claim for UNSC membership till President Barack Obama agreed to do so Obama and when he visited India in November 2010. However, this entire process of coming to terms with India’s rise and its decision Singh to declare itself a Nuclear Weapons State divided the US policy establishment into pro-India and anti-India lobbies, and the period 1998 to 2004 witnessed vig- Will there be a meeting of orous debates within the US and Indian foreign policy communities on the pros minds? Can there be a meeting and cons of the two countries becoming ‘natural allies.’ of minds? Or, will the two wo events may have influenced the course of the subsequent discourse. leaders bid farewell to each TFirst, a ‘collision’ between a US Navy plane and a Chinese PLA fighter other, leaving it to their jet near Hainan in the South China Sea in April 2001, months after George W successors to re-invent and Bush was elected President. Second, the 9/11 terror attacks in New York later rescue the relationship, asks that year. The first incident signaled the rise of Chinese power in East Asia. The SANJAYA BARU. second incident signaled the escalation of the threat posed by Islamic jihadism.

INDIA ABROAD ARCHIVES In 1998, when Prime Minister ead through the several speeches on India- Vajpayee wrote a letter to President United States relations of Prime Ministers P V Clinton explaining that India’s decision to conduct nuclear Narasimha Rao, Atal Bihari Vajpayee and tests was shaped by China’s emergence as a major nuclear Manmohan Singh, delivered at various venues power in her neighborhood, President Clinton shared this in Washington DC, New York and New Delhi letter with the Chinese leadership. He went a step further Rbetween 1991 and 2009, you will see a consistent and a and issued a joint statement in Beijing offering legitimacy shared underlying view being articulated, despite differ- to Chinese interests in South Asia. ences of nuance, emphasis and style. By 2001 the US began to realize that both these decisions India’s post-Cold War strategy towards the world in gen- were wrong and the time had come for the US to give eral and the US in particular was shaped by these three greater weight to Indian, and other Asian, concerns about prime ministers. As Rao’s finance minister Manmohan the rise of Chinese power. Singh endorsed and shared Rao’s worldview. Prime Similarly, through the 1990s India repeatedly drew US Minister Vajpayee took forward the relationship taking, attention to the rise of radical Islam and its growing links what were naturally defined as, the ‘Next Steps in Strategic with terrorism. The US ignored those warnings, particularly Partnership, NSSP.’ in the context of the Indian sub-continent, giving legitimacy The first important foreign policy initiative that Prime to Pakistani views that terror attacks against India were Minister Singh took was to authorize his National Security carried out by Kashmiri ‘freedom fighters.’ The Al Qaeda Advisor, J N Dixit, to initiate NSSP-2. The seeds of the attack in New York helped clarify this nonsense. INDIA ABROAD ARCHIVES India-US civil nuclear cooperation agreement were sowed When Vajpayee famously described India and the Terrorists were terrorists, whatever their demand, their in NSSP-1 and came to fruition with NSSP-2. US as ‘natural allies’ at the Asia Society in New York in 1998, motivation and the sources of their anger. As Prime When Prime Minister Vajpayee famously described India eyebrows were raised. But the US responded positively to it within Minister Singh told Congress in July 2005, ‘Terrorism any- and the United States as ‘natural allies’ at the Asia Society two years. where is a threat to peace and security everywhere.’ in New York in September 1998, eyebrows were raised both recognizing India as a legitimate nuclear weapons power); t was President Bush’s clear and categorical recognition in New Delhi and Washington, DC. However, within two third, a policy stance in South Asia that goes against India’s of the strategic challenge to the United States posed by years a distinguished American scholar and strategist, ‘basic irreducible security needs.’ (Read: The US position on Ithe rise of Islamic radicalism and jihadi terrorism, on Condoleeza Rice, responded to that remark with her own the Kashmir issue); finally, a lack of understanding in the the one hand, and the rise of Chinese power, on the other, formulation of why the US should seek partnership with US of India’s strategic interests vis-à-vis China and Russia. that forced Washington to re-assess its views about India India. (‘Campaign 2000: Promoting the National Interest’ President Bill Clinton straightaway addressed the concern and India’s place in Asia and the world. Foreign Affairs, January-February 2000.) on Pakistan by using the opportunity provided by General Consider once again the common elements of the mes- Vajpayee had listed three ‘incomprehensible’ hurdles, Pervez Musharraf’s Kargil misadventure and accepting the sage from New Delhi to Washington articulated by succes- from India’s viewpoint, to such a partnership: First, the US Indian view that the ‘Line of Control’ in Jammu and sive governments. The speeches of Prime Ministers Rao, stance on India’s global role (read: Membership of the Kashmir ought to be treated as the ‘international border’ Vajpayee and Dr Singh’s very first speech in New York in United Nations Security Council); second, subjecting India between the two countries. to technology denial and export control regimes (read: Not The NSSP was launched to address the technology denial Page M20 US-India The Way Forward

THE MAGAZINE M19 India Abroad September 27, 2013 Each side should designate a senior official charged with keeping the US-India relationship on track, recommends RICHARD FONTAINE.

rime Minister Manmohan Singh’s visit to Washington comes at a time of doubt. Some analysts point to India’s stalled economic reforms and slowing growth and question the country’s future trajectory. Other commentators Pexpress reservations about the salience of US-India rela- tions and uncertainty over how India fits into Washington’s ‘rebalance’ to Asia. And from one perspective, the glass can indeed appear half empty. Yet the US-India relationship enjoys biparti- JASON REED/REUTERS san support in both countries, and the underlying strate- The US Senate’s Gang on Eight, who crafted comprehensive legislation to overhaul the immigration system, in Washington, April 18. The gic logic remains sound. Building on this foundation will differences and divisions that have taken center stage in the US-India relationship in recent months include the immigration bill, which is now require able stewardship in both Washington and New under debate in Congress. Delhi. The differences and divisions have taken center stage in recent months. India and the United States are, after all, two large and messy democracies whose political systems respond at least as much to domestic pressures as they do Singh and Obama must to foreign policy opportunities. Thus, American businesses complain of unfair tax treat- ment and regulatory barriers to trade and investment in India, which can have strategic impact in a relationship look ahead driven in part by rapidly expanding economic ties. Indian high-tech companies worry about provisions in the immigration bill under debate in Congress that would tight- en H1-B visa rules, to Indian firms’s possible detriment. the region are strong and enjoy close ties with the United the relationship forward significantly for the first time At the same time, the landmark civilian nuclear cooper- States. since 2010. In the wake of Obama’s visit to India that ation agreement, which formed the ‘big idea’ of the bilat- India will have a key role to play in this future. Neither year, Washington relaxed its export controls to permit the eral relationship several years ago, remains unfulfilled due India nor the US will wish to contain China, with which transfer of technology to India, built on its successful to differences over India’s nuclear liability law. they have mutually dependent economic ties, but both will counter-terrorism cooperation with New Delhi and Washington and New Delhi have differed over sanction- welcome strong partners to help shape and maintain the expanded its rich dialogue on Asia. ing Iran, and Indian policymakers express concern about global rules to which China and all other nations will be The two sides will no doubt search once again for deliv- America’s commitment — or lack thereof — to subject. erables to mark the occasion. Yet sketching out a shared Afghanistan after 2014. And though military ties have Moving toward this strategic vision has in the past vision of the relationship will be just as important. improved rapidly over the past decade, key defense agree- required two key elements: Ownership of the relationship For Washington’s part, this will require articulating ments remain unsigned. at the highest levels of both governments and a big idea India’s centrality in the pantheon of American foreign pol- All this seems a far cry from the heady days when on which to focus the two sides’s considerable energies. icy priorities and demonstrating that a strong, prosperous, American and Indian leaders first referred to the two Prime Minister Singh’s visit could catalyze the former; India is manifestly in the United States’s interest. countries as ‘natural allies.’ each side should designate a senior official charged with It has become nearly a cliché to remark that the US- Or when Congress took unprecedented steps to carve out keeping the US-India relationship on track. India relationship is one between the world’s oldest an exception for India under existing nonproliferation laws. Identifying a major objective is more difficult. One democracy and the world’s biggest democracy. The truism Or when President Barack Obama, in a dramatic speech option would be to focus on a significant expansion of the cuts both ways, however, and the messiest of democratic before the Indian Parliament in 2010, declared that the trade relationship. While there has been little progress in politics puts a premium on foreign policy leadership. United States supports New Delhi’s pursuit of permanent the negotiations over a bilateral investment treaty, the two During this important visit, President Obama and membership on the United Nations Security Council. sides could raise their sights and agree on a broad frame- Prime Minister Singh have the opportunity to demon- Yet, despite drift in some key areas of the relationship, work for an eventual free trade agreement. strate the value of these critical ties. its underlying strategic rationale remains. Washington is There are obvious difficulties inherent in such a step, rebalancing its foreign policy to Asia, attempting to allot particularly given India’s looming parliamentary elections, that region greater diplomatic attention, military but with other pacts in the offing — including an India- resources and commercial agreements than it has received European Union free trade agreement and the multilater- in the past. al Trans-Pacific Partnership, which includes the United Richard Fontaine is the President, This shift is merited in light of the Indo-Pacific’s future States but not India — identifying ways to put into place Center for a New American Security. He role as a key engine of global economic growth and poten- the building blocks of a stronger economic relationship is the co-author of Natural Allies: A tial locus of strategic competition. Washington should would benefit both sides. Blueprint for the Future of US-India seek to ensure that the major democratic players across The prime minister’s visit holds the potential to move Relations. US-India The Way Forward

M20 THE MAGAZINE India Abroad September 27, 2013

Page M18 September 2004, at the Council on Foreign Relations, car- The Challenge for Obama and Singh ried the same message. That the US must first recognize that pluralism and democracy were under threat and, second, that the US President George W Bush, right, and Indian Prime and India had a shared interest in defending Minister Manmohan Singh at the White House in both. The message was finally heard by 2005. According to Sanjaya Baru, whatever the President Bush. mistakes Bush may have made in his domestic eco- Whatever the mistakes President Bush nomic policies and foreign policy, the one thing he may have made in his domestic economic got right was his Indian policy. policies and foreign policy, the one thing he got right was his Indian policy. When The ‘first steps’ (Clinton), the ‘next steps’ American critics of President Bush would (Bush-1) and the ‘decisive steps’ (Bush-2) in tell me that Bush had a simplistic view of India-US strategic partnership were not fol- the world and he thought of it in binary lowed up during Dr Singh’s second term in ‘black and white’ terms — the good guys and office and Obama’s first term. Rather, the bad guys — my response would be that upturn in the curve witnessed during 1998- while this may be true the fact is that as an 2008 was followed by a downturn in 2009- Indian I would not deride him because he 2013. thought we were the ‘good guys!’ President Obama and Prime Minister That simple idea constituted the founda- Singh meet in Washington, DC against this tion of the new strategic partnership background. Their domestic economic situa- between India and the US. May be we were tion and the messy state of affairs in Asia to not yet ‘natural allies,’ as Mr Vajpayee India’s west will weigh on both their minds. claimed, but we were both on the same side. So too will China’s continuing rise and its We were the ‘good guys,’ and the US wanted renewed assertiveness in Eurasia writ large. to help. But, will there be a meeting of minds? Can The new partnership built by President KEVIN LAMARQU/REUTERS there be a meeting of minds? Or, will the Bush and Prime Minister Singh was based two bid farewell to each other, leaving it to on the recognition by both countries that each one’s eco- India’s strategic concerns. Then came the Arab Spring and their successors to re-invent and rescue the relationship? nomic growth was good for the other and that the two its aftermath — a sectarian conflict in the Middle East and If the two interlocutors in the Oval Room want to leave could work together to create a global environment con- West Asia. behind a legacy worth remembering them for as far as ducive to their economic betterment and global political As home to the second largest community of Muslims in India-US relations are concerned they will have to shred stability. the world, India could not sit idly and go along with every the papers written for them by their aides over the past four The US could help India gain strategic space that would cynical move of the West in the region. years (Obama-1 and Singh-2) and re-invent the relation- enable its economic rise, and India could help fuel the Second, the 2008-2009 trans-Atlantic economic and ship. engines of US economic growth, which in turn would widen financial crisis weakened the US commitment to India’s The events and the thinking of Obama-1 and Singh-2 US’s strategic space. The wide range of issues on which economic rise (India also weakened its own case by the require the re-launch of the partnership. Both countries India and the US agreed to cooperate and help each other positions it adopted on World Trade Organization’s Doha have, therefore, to take ‘New Steps’ for a new strategic part- was defined by this perspective. Development Round and the various policy initiatives it nership taking into account the new developments that There were and remain skeptics and naysayers in both took at home). have come to define the world since 2008. countries. Both leaders brushed aside such skeptics and To make matters worse, for India, the economic slow- ignored the naysayers to build a new strategic partnership. down increased the importance of China for the US and However, two developments have since contributed to a much of Asia. (Fortunately, for India, China weakened its Dr Sanjaya Baru is Director for Geo-eco- weakening of this partnership. own case with its hubris and its strategic overreach within nomics and Strategy, International First, President Bush’s decision to go into Iraq and the Asia). The talk of a ‘G-2’ — a condominium between the US Institute of Strategic Studies. He is also an subsequent course of events in West Asia weakened one of and China — emanating from US think tanks in the vicinity Honorary Senior Fellow, Center for Policy the pillars of the strategic partnership. Things became of the White House forced India to re-think its own strate- Studies, New Delhi. He served as Media worse when President Obama defined a timetable of transi- gic options. India responded in a tentative sort of way with Advisor to Prime Minister Manmohan tion in Afghanistan without paying much attention to a half-baked theory dubbed ‘Non-alignment 2.0.’ Singh (2004 to 2008).

Page M16 campaign against outsourc- ing led by the White House. The plateau is at a high elevation today India has its own concerns sites. about US protectionism and Other issues have contributed to a distinct The US corporate mood towards Indian being, but the medium and longer term market access for some of its products, lowering of enthusiasm for the India rela- has soured of late, and this needs to be prospects remain very positive for the which don’t receive a sympathetic response. tionship in the US, such as perceived Indian reversed. The US is pushing for a Bilateral India-US relationship. All in all, however, ties with the US are protectionism exemplified by India’s Investment Treaty. On climate change and On the Indian side, India has decidedly better than they were a Preferential Market Access decision to force WTO-related issues, India and the US have problems with the new decade ago. Even if the relation- foreign companies to set up manufacturing unbridged differences. The general view is Comprehensive Immigration Bill ship has ‘plateau-ed’ as some say, facilities in the telecom sector in India, the that the relationship is now suffering from that will put more restrictions on the plateau is at a high elevation Indian Supreme Court judgment on the the fatigue factor. movement of personnel from India today. patents issue which has exacerbated con- The slowdown in India’s growth and to the US in the IT sector, the cerns about IPRs and the retroactive appli- other structural problems that have increased cost of H1B and L1 visas cation of India’s tax legislation as in the appeared in the Indian economy have taken that will impose sizable costs on the Ambassador Kanwal Sibal is a Vodafone case. the shine off the India story for the time Indian IT sector and the whole former Foreign Secretary of India. US-India The Way Forward

THE MAGAZINE M21 India Abroad September 27, 2013 Nothing has changed in the fundamental character and potential of the US-India relationship, says MARSHALL M BOUTON.

n the old days, before 2000, the India-US rela- tionship was frequently compared to a roller coaster because it swung rapidly but predictably between high highs and low lows. Beginning in 2000, when President Bill Clinton’s historic visit to India seemed to change the character of the Irelationship almost overnight, many thought those roller coaster swings in US-India ties were behind us. As Prime Minister Singh’s upcoming summit with President Obama approaches, however, we have to ques- tion whether those bad days are back. In fact, the roller coaster of US-India relations has reached lows not seen since 1999. Today if you talk to administration officials about India they express disillusionment with the promise of India-US KRISHNENDU HALDER/REUTERS relations that seemed so bright just a few years ago. And if A Bharti Wal-Mart Best Price Modern wholesale store in Hyderabad, Andhra Pradesh. India’s slowing economic growth, and restrictive and pro- you talk to American business leaders, you will find tectionist economic policies have undercut the confidence of American investors, but nothing has changed in the fundamental character and greater disappointment and sometimes anger over what potential of ties between the two nations. they see as India’s increasing barriers and even hostility to foreign investment. Many of them are voting with their dollars and not increasing or even reducing their invest- ments in India. Renewing the Promise Now make no mistake. The India-US relationship today looks very different from what it was in 1999 not to men- tion a decade earlier, before the onset of India’s economic India for its part is still hesitant, sometimes downright market economies of the policies of the Federal Reserve. reforms. In the decade after 1999 those reforms led to a ornery about its engagement with the US, whether out of Increasing tensions and exchanges of fire between India quadrupling of bilateral trade and large increases in conviction that its international autonomy is threatened and Pakistan along the Line of Control in Kashmir will no American investment in India. In 1999, official relations or just because of lingering distrust of the US. doubt be discussed. Both leaders will exchange views were nearly frozen as the US imposed sanctions following But when the two economies are increasingly linked in again about China’s policies and behavior in the Asian India’s May 1998 nuclear tests. mutually beneficial ways, not only is there countervailing region and what they mean. Today, as a result of the historic civil nuclear accord momentum in the relationship, but on both sides there But to the extent the two leaders focus on the bilateral completed in 2008, India is accepted internationally as a are more advocates for keeping the relationship moving relationship, their ability to shape policies and actions nuclear weapons state and virtually all of the US sanctions forward. that will help reverse the recent slide in bilateral relations have been lifted. In 1999 meaningful defense cooperation Unfortunately though, the failure of the UPA II govern- is limited. India will have a national election within the was nonexistent. In recent years India has purchased ment to pursue second generation economic reforms, the next nine months. President Obama has a very full agenda nearly $9 billion worth of US military equipment, with dramatic slowing of India’s economic growth, the advent internationally and domestically over the next several more orders likely to be placed soon, and the US has more of restrictive and protectionist economic policies that months. joint exercises with India than with any other country. almost seemed designed to alienate foreign investors, and Still, the Summit is an opportunity for Prime Minister In a reflection of all these changes, India has been seen a series of scandals and political diversions have dramati- Singh and President Obama to reaffirm the commitment and described by US leaders as a strategic partner of the cally undercut the confidence of American investors and of their governments to renewing the progress and the US in Asia and globally. created a gloomy outlook among observers of the Indian promise of India-US relations. So what has happened more recently to renew the sense economic scene. Despite the recent reverses, nothing has changed in the of estrangement, Dennis Kux’s memorable term, between India’s economic and political slide in recent years has fundamental character and potential of ties between the the world’s oldest and the world largest democracies? also caused many analysts and some leaders to question two nations. Most basically, the US’s greatest interest in Most importantly, the reality and the prospect of India’s whether India’s domestic troubles will so preoccupy it for the relationship is in fact India’s success at home — its economic success has faded in just the last few years, at many years to come that it will not be the strong interna- economic development, stability and openness. That alone least in the perceptions of many observers. Economic ties tional partner for the United States that many had expect- would do a great deal to help ensure peace and prosperity are the ballast in the India-US relationship and are essen- ed it would become. in Asia and the world over the longer term. tial to keeping the relationship on a steady course, espe- Against this background we must question what the cially when the political winds turn stormy. meeting of Prime Minister Singh and President Those seas can be rough even now. Despite the end of Obama will accomplish. Even though the relationship Marshall Bouton is president emeritus, the Cold War world, and even in the face of a newly may be strained, there is much on the South Asian and Chicago Council on Global Affairs; he helmed assertive Chinese role in Asia, US-India political relations international scene that will concern both leaders. the organization from 2001 to 2013. He is were bound to be mixed and uncertain. The US is often The regional impact of the US withdrawal from Managing Director, Hills and Company too preoccupied with other problems at home and abroad Afghanistan will be hugely consequential for India. International Consultants, and a Senior to be consistent in its efforts to deepen the mutual under- The prime minister has openly expressed his concern Fellow at the Center for Advanced Study of standing needed for steady improvement in political ties. about the impact on the Indian and other emerging India, Unniversity of Pennsylvania. US-India The Way Forward

M22 THE MAGAZINE India Abroad September 27, 2013

broader context of how far bilateral ties have Washington and New progressed in recent years. Let us not forget that it was only 15 years Delhi are no longer ago that the Clinton administration slapped sanctions on India because of its nuclear courting teenagers in tests. Even during the administration of George the throes of first love, W Bush, who was and remains wildly popu- lar in India, the revitalization of but a comfortably Washington’s alliance with Pakistan and the US designation of Pakistan (but not India) established couple as a major non-North Atlantic Treaty organ- ization ally caused considerable anger and where heated ardor has anguish in New Delhi. The naysayers and the purveyors of gloom given way to settled also ignore both the depth and the breadth of today’s relationship, compared to only a routine, notes decade ago. The two countries regularly — without much fanfare or even notice from ROBERT M the media — communicate, coordinate, and collaborate on issues ranging from geopoli- HATHAWAY. tics to disaster relief, from defense to health, from space to energy, from information he US capital, sunk in gloom and technology to higher education. self-absorption, awaits the arrival of It’s important that we not romanticize this Manmohan Singh on what is proba- partnership. Some of the overblown lan- Tbly his last visit to Washington guage that both countries have used in the before stepping down as prime minister. At past to characterize the present and future moments like this, I miss my old boss Steve of the relationship has contributed to unre- Solarz. alistic expectations, which in turn have led Representative Stephen J Solarz, often to dashed hopes and even the sense of hav- called ‘India’s best friend in Congress’ by this ing been let down that one hears from time newspaper, came to Washington in 1974 as a to time today. member of the famed ‘Watergate class,’ and Nor should we ignore the disruptive issues served in the US House of Representatives that could destabilize bilateral ties. Visas, for the next 18 years. His energy, smarts, trade and investment, Iran, climate change, and unrelenting focus on foreign policy and — always — US ties to Pakistan unsettle fueled his quick ascent in the House Foreign the relationship. Affairs Committee. Most urgently, as the US completes its Originally, the chair of another subcom- troop withdrawal from Afghanistan next mittee, he leaped in 1981 at the chance to year that troubled country could increasing- head the Asia subcommittee, and was easily Stephen Solarz, right, with then Indian Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee. Solarz was INDIA ABROAD ARCHIVES ly become a source of serious discord the best informed and most influential ever the optimist about India, some of his staff thought incurably so. But the past 20 between Washington and New Delhi. member of Congress on all things Asian years have shown how right he was to have bet on India, and its ties with the US. India, unconvinced that the Afghans will until his electoral defeat and retirement in be ready to assume full responsibility for 1992. their security, worries that the US departure Early in his career, Steve singled out India will lead to chaos in the region, with India and US-Indian relations as one of his pri- left holding the bag. Some war-weary mary interests. Indeed, India was more than Betting on India Americans retort that India is perfectly will- an interest; it became a passion. He was ing to see the US fight in Afghanistan to the drawn to India’s vibrant democracy. He last American. admired the way in which Indians had resisted the exam- was often the only member of Congress to speak out on Nonetheless, as Prime Minster Singh visits Washington ples of South Korea, Taiwan, and other countries that had behalf of India. Today, of course, members elbow each other this month, both sides should celebrate the bilateral rela- pursued economic development at the cost of democratic out of the way to get to the podium to praise India and sup- tionship — and the huge strides India has made over the freedoms. port cordial US-India ties. That is one of Steve’s legacies. past two decades. As India’s prime minister for the past In the 1970s and 1980s, with the Cold War raging and Why resurrect these memories of a man now gone from nine years, and as the chief architect of India’s economic most of Washington viewing New Delhi as far too friendly Congress for more than 20 years? It’s simple, really. At a miracle stretching back to 1991, Singh perhaps more so toward Moscow, Steve’s belief in the importance of close US moment when foreign policy mavens write of a malaise in than any other individual can appreciate the progress that ties with India placed him badly out of step with most of his ties between New Delhi and Washington, it’s useful to recall has occurred, and justly claim some of the credit. Congressional colleagues. just how far that partnership has come in a remarkably Steve Solarz was ever the optimist — some of his staff Today, the India Caucus is perhaps the largest caucus in short period of time. thought incurably so. But surely the past 20 years have Congress. But it was not always so. Steve used to joke that True, the sense of anticipation that surrounded the rela- shown how right he was to have bet on in his day, the entire caucus could fit inside a telephone tionship a few years ago has somewhat dissipated. But in an India, and on the ties between our two booth, with room to spare. (Older readers may have to odd way, this underscores the maturity of today’s relation- countries. explain that reference to this newspaper’s younger readers, ship. Washington and New Delhi are no longer courting many of whom may never have seen a phone booth.) teenagers in the throes of first love, but a comfortably estab- On numerous occasions, as one of his subcommittee lished couple where heated ardor has given way to settled Robert M Hathaway directs the Asia pro- staffers, I accompanied Steve to the floor of the House, routine. gram at the Woodrow Wilson Center. His where he argued passionately — and usually successfully — Sure, there are points of difference, even irritants, in the latest book is the co-edited New Security against anti-India legislation. In those lonely days, Steve relationship, but these disagreements must be seen in the Challenges in Asia. US-India The Way Forward

THE MAGAZINE M23 India Abroad September 27, 2013 Dr Singh must leave the impression that India is a place where one can do business The United States has strategic and economic reasons to wish

him well on this, says DANISH SIDDIQUI/REUTERS Inside the General Motors plant in . The Indian prime minister will need to address the perception of potential American investors that WALTER K ANDERSEN. the maze of intrusive Indian regulations, bureaucratic delays and corruption block New Delhi’s recent moves to attract foreign investment and trade.

r Manmohan Singh on September 27 will make objectives. Key partners abandoned Singh’s coalition govern- the economy to private enterprise, encouraged foreign direct what is likely to be his final visit to Washington, DC ment and the parliamentary vote was a razor thin 275 to 256 investment, and dramatically lowered what had been one of as Prime Minister of India before his term ends in votes in the 543 member Lower House of Parliament. He the world’s highest tariff structures. D2014. He will almost certainly take the opportuni- recognized that a strong India, with or without a military One example of the growing role of private capital is infra- ty to advance the resolution of differences regarding his alliance with the US, was in America’s interest. structure development, which Singh has pushed as key to greatest foreign policy triumph: The collaborative US-India The deal was transformational. Replacing decades of dis- further economic growth since becoming prime minister in effort in 2008 to end the international ban on selling India trust, each began to look at the other as a positive force in 2004. In the 12th Five Year Plan (2012 to 2017), the private nuclear fuel and technology for peaceful use of nuclear ener- advancing its strategic objectives on combating terrorism, on sector is to provide almost one half the trillion dollars in gy without simultaneously demanding that India abandon working to keep the rise of China peaceful, and on insuring what is the world’s largest infrastructure development pro- its nuclear weapons program. that critical Indian Ocean sea lanes over which move more gram. This agreement signaled America’s support of India as a than 80 percent of India’s international trade are unimped- One could argue with the reform pace, but a democratic major actor on the world stage and reset the US-Indian rela- ed. India must get the backing of major stakeholders and that tionship. Above all, the prime minister will want to set long- India supported the presence of NATO troops in Afgh- often takes time. But the question today is not whether there term goals in the bilateral relationship and thus dispel the anistan, as India is also a target of Al Qaeda and its Taliban will be reforms, but at what pace they will take place. Prime perception of a loss of momentum. allies. India has sanctioned more military maneuvers with Minister Narasimha Rao, and every prime minister after In this period of close India-US relations, it is useful to the US than with any other country and is comfortable with him, has shaped Indian foreign policy around goal of grow- remind ourselves of the deep reservoir of distrust not many the growing US military presence in the Asia Pacific region. ing the economy. On this, the US as the largest investor and years ago in each country regarding the other. This distrust India has purchased some of the most sophisticated military trading partner plays a key role. was increasingly outdated in a new post Cold War era that weapons in the US arsenal. Prime Minister Singh’s major goal on this visit is likely to altered strategic realities. Something dramatic was needed to President Barack Obama on his very successful 2010 visit dispel the growing perception in the US of a loss of momen- overcome the popular distrust and reset the relationship. to India pledged US support for India as a permanent mem- tum in the bilateral relationship. He will need to address the Starting in 2005, just a year after assuming office, PM ber in the UN Security Council. concerns of many US companies that Indian nuclear liabili- Singh and his US counterpart worked to achieve the requ- Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in a June 2011 speech in ty legislation places American corporations at a significant ired dramatic breakthrough. This culminated in the 2008 Chennai spoke of India’s growing international influence and disadvantage in taking part in the rapid expansion of India’s India-US nuclear deal that enabled India to import nuclear encouraged India to assert itself even more. nuclear powered generating facilities. He will also need to fuel and technology without requiring it to sign the 1970 Singh’s government has appointed its most experienced address the perception of potential American investors that Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty that had denied nuclear we- diplomats as ambassador to the US, including the present the maze of intrusive Indian regulations, bureaucratic delays apons to any but the five countries possessing them in 1968. Ambassador Nirupama Rao and soon to arrive Dr Subra- and corruption block the prime minister’s recent moves to India was not one of those five and, hence, refused to sign hmanyam Jaishankar. attract foreign investment and trade. a treaty that would prohibit it from developing nuclear wea- One could compare Singh’s daring on the nuclear agree- With national elections less than a year away, it may be dif- pons and thus place India at a strategic disadvantage to next ment to equally daring moves he made in the early 1990s as ficult for the prime minister to commit himself to policies door nuclear capable China. The deal, however, faced major finance minister under then prime minister P V Narasimha that dispel these concerns. But he must leave the impression challenges in both the US Congress and the Indian Parli- Rao to set the Indian economy on a new more market ori- that India is a place where one can do business. ament, but Prime Minister Singh and President George W ented path that has led to a quadrupling of its GDP in The United States has strategic and economic Bush pushed ahead because each clearly recognized that this some two decades. reasons to wish him well on this. action was necessary to reset the relationship so that both In a series of brilliant moves soon after the inaugura- countries could better respond to the changed strategic situ- tion of the Rao government in mid-1991, Singh as ation in Asia. finance minister announced a dramatic set of reforms, Walter K Andersen served as chief of the State The prime minister risked a vote of no-confidence in perhaps the most prominent being the virtual disman- Department’s South Asia Division in the Office Parliament in the face of a formidable opposition, including tling of a licensing system that permitted intrusive gov- of Analysis for the Near East and South Asia. He some within his own party, who argued that the nuclear agre- ernment involvement in almost every area of the econo- is the Administrative Director of the South Asia ement would tie India irretrievably to US foreign policy my. That set of reforms also opened almost every area of Studies Program, Johns Hopkins University. US-India The Way Forward

M24 THE MAGAZINE India Abroad September 27, 2013

Russian President Vladimir Putin, left, with Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh in New Delhi in 2012. American leaders accustomed to If Manmohan Singh can working with India have become increasingly appreciative of the fact that it will not be a US ally in the traditional mould and that India-specific reinforce, with greater exceptions will often have to be made. But that is still not universally acknowledged in Washington. conviction, the merits of better cooperation with the United States during his visit, it will cap an important aspect of his legacy as prime minister says DHRUVA JAISHANKAR.

n 2008, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh famously staked the future of his government on improved rela- tions with the United States. But his visit to IWashington — on what may well be his final trip to the United States as prime minister — will be clouded in a certain unshakeable sense of disappointment. Given the promising trajectory of US-India relations from May 1998 to December 2008, there has been a com- parable lack of forward movement over the past five years. Not that there haven’t been any positive developments. US exports to India are booming. Defense commerce has grown and no longer elicits surprise or much comment in either country. Working level contacts between the two governments have improved, as have direct links between GRIGORY DUKOR/REUTERS the Indian and American people. So, why the concern? Today, the bilateral relationship faces two big problems. The first is expectations. The relationship now character- The Weight of Expectations, ized by numerous dialogues, regular cooperation, and fre- quent official contact is unrecognizable from that of the 1990s, when India was a low strategic and economic prior- ity for Washington and an outsider to the global non-pro- The Perils of Complacency liferation order. But work clearly needs to be done as long as New Delhi takes umbrage at every perceived slight by the US government and Washington expresses it frustra- Indian officials are cynical enough to understand that its own neighborhood. It may also require India to be more tion whenever an Indian decision appears at odds with its their American counterparts will not be motivated by sen- active in multilateral forums, not just as a state that vetoes wishes. timent when granting India any special consideration, but decisions, but one that tries to proactively shape the global The second — and equally vexing — problem is compla- rather by self-interest. While some American leaders have agenda. cency. In many quarters, there is now a sense that bilateral certainly internalized India’s strategic importance, it has by Both countries have had reasons to resent the other’s cooperation between India and the United States has no means permeated the entire US government, either at behaviour over the past five years. India’s economic per- reached its natural limits and that no further effort needs the bureaucratic or political level. Most American policy- formance has been less than impressive, and its role as an to be exerted on either side to improve ties. Those who call makers may still need to be convinced of India’s impor- institutional leader has been underwhelming, whether at for more ‘realistic’ relations downplay the potential value of tance and informed about India’s perspectives. the United Nations, World Trade Organization, or other both countries to the other and underestimate the areas of The second Indian objective is strategic independence. In such apex bodies. true alignment. practice, this means maximizing India’s decision-making On the American side, India policy has become bogged A basis of any strategy is a clear understanding of one’s options and ensuring that ties with the United States down in narrow bureaucratic channels as it has slipped goals. But better relations in and of themselves do not con- develop at minimal cost to India’s other relationships, such down the list of priorities. The solution, on both sides, will stitute a goal. So, within reason, what exactly are both as with Russia, Europe, China, and others. American lead- require top down leadership, a better articulation of shared sides’s objectives with regards to one another? ers accustomed to working with India have become objectives and a long-term vision for the relationship that There remains considerable debate in New Delhi about increasingly appreciative of the fact that it will not be a US transcends near-term institutional resistance. the scope of relations with Washington. But in the broad- ally in the traditional mould and that India-specific excep- If Manmohan Singh can reinforce, with greater convic- est possible sense, India has two somewhat contradictory tions will often have to be made. But that is still not uni- tion, the merits of better cooperation with the United objectives. The first is a ‘special relationship,’ one in which versally acknowledged in Washington, and India must still States during his visit, it will cap an important aspect of certain critical aspects of American regional and economic work to minimize the uncertainty that accompanies every his legacy as prime minister, and he will provide his suc- policy are pursued with Indian sensitivities taken into con- change in administration. cessor a platform upon which to build sideration, even when they are not completely in align- For its part, the United States has its own vision of what warmer relations over the coming decade. ment with Indian interests. healthy relations with India look like. The US, in other words, must be committed to facilitat- First and foremost, it means a strong, rising India that ing India’s rise. This might translate, in practice, to India helps to uphold the US-led international order. This Dhruva Jaishankar is a fellow at the being consulted on American intervention in countries requires India to play the parts of a security provider in its German Marshall Fund in Washington, with large Indian populations, on the nature and scope of region and a global institution-builder, which in turn where he manages the India Trilateral the US’ defence posture in Asia, and on its foreign assis- requires India’s economy to be more open and integrated Forum, a twice-yyearly strategic dialogue tance to other countries in South Asia. and for it to play a more active diplomatic role starting in between India, the US, and Europe.