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Dallas-Fort Worth Second Quarter 2019 / Office Research Report 14643 Dallas Parkway, Suite 950, LB#58 | Dallas, TX 75254 214.294.4400 MARKETInsights DALLAS-FORT WORTH POPULATION GROWTH Population The Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington metropolitan saw a slight decrease). The following industry Dallas/Fort Worth Population Growth statistical area has been one of the fastest sectors experienced the largest net gains in 10,000,000 Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington growing metro areas of the country over the the past 12 months: professional and 9,000,000 past thirty years. According to the U.S. Census business services (+27,400 jobs); trade, 8,000,000 Bureau, the Metroplex is the fourth largest transportation and utilities (+19,300); leisure 7,000,000 metropolitan statistical area (“MSA”) in the 6,000,000 and hospitality (+13,900 jobs); and United States with an estimated population of 5,000,000 education and health services 7.4 million. By comparison, the three largest 4,000,000 (+10,500 jobs). 3,000,000 MSAs in terms of population were New 2,000,000 York, Los Angeles and Chicago with According to the most recent data from the 1,000,000 populations of 20.3 million, 13.4 million, and Bureau of Labor Statistics, the seasonally 0 9.5 million respectively. Since the last census adjusted unemployment rate for the Dallas- 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2018 2020 2030 in 2010, the Census Bureau estimates the Fort Worth-Arlington MSA was 3.4% as of Source: North TexasSource: Council North of Governments; Texas Council US Census of Governments; US Census population of the Dallas-Fort Worth MSA May 2019. By comparison, the Texas and grew by 900,000 or an average of 130,000 national unemployment rates were both people per year. That’s a gain of 356 per day. 3.5% and 3.6%, respectively as of May 2019. NET JOB GROWTH VS. The Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington metropolitan UNEMPLOYMENT RATE area’s 146,000-resident increase over the Population projections for Dallas-Fort Worth past year was the most of any metro state the Metroplex will reach 9 million area in the United States. by 2030 and 10.7 million by the year 2040. The North Central Texas Council of Gov- The Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington metropolitan ernments (NCTCOG) estimates the Dallas- area continued to produce new jobs, creating Fort Worth population will grow from 6.5 an estimated 107,000 net new jobs in the 12 million as of the 2010 Census to 10.7 million by months ending May 2019 (the most recent the year 2040, an average annual increase of figure available) according to the Bureau of 144,578 and an annual compounded growth Labor Statistics. The majority of new jobs rate of 1.8%. It should be noted that the were created in the professional and business NCTCOG’s prior estimate of the Dallas-Fort services sector, which grew by 27,400 net new Worth population, an estimate of the 2010 JOBS EMPLOYMENT jobs. Net job gains occurred for almost all in- population made in 1987, underestimated dustry sectors (only the information sector the actual population per the 2010 Census. youngerpartners.com 1 MARKETInsights Second Quarter 2019 / Office Research Report DALLAS-FORT WORTH Employment by Industry (January 2019) Financial EMPLOYMENT BYInformation INDUSTRYProfessional SECTOR and Activities 2% 8% Business Services Other Services 17% Employment 3% EmploymentJANUARY by Industry 2019(January 2019) Financial Information Professional and Manufacturing Activities 2% 8% Business Services For office space demand, employment – For the cycle so far, the total net job 8% Other Services 17% 3% especially employment in the “office-us- gains have been 1,060,900. This is second Manufacturing 8% ing” industry sectors – is a key driver. in the nation behind New York, which has Trade, Government Transportation, a much larger base. 12% Trade, and Utilities Government Transportation, 22% According to the Bureau of Labor Sta- 12% and Utilities 22% tistics, Dallas-Fort Worth was the fourth Employment growth in Dallas-Fort Worth Education and largest employment market in the – both total non-farm and office-using – Education and Health ServicesHealth Services LeisureLeisure and and 12% 12% nation with total non-farm employment has been fairly consistent since 2010. For Mining,Mining, Logging Logging and Construction ConstructionHospitality 6% Hospitality 6% 10% 10% of 3.9 million as of May 2019. Of this fiscal year ending May 2019, Dallas-Fort total, almost 27% or 1 million jobs were Worth’s total non-farm employment 1 in the office-using sectors of professional grew by 107,000 (2.9%) and the office EMPLOYMENT GROWTH Dallas/Fort Worth Employment Growth 6.0% and business services, financial activities, employment sector grew by 27,100 (3.0%). DALLAS-FORT WORTH 4.0% Dallas/Fort Worth Employment Growth and information. 6.0% 2.0% 0.0% 4.0% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 YTD -2.0% 2.0% -4.0% 0.0% -6.0% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 YTD -8.0% -2.0% Total Employment Growth (%) Office Employment Growth (%) -4.0% NET JOB GROWTH VS. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE -6.0% -8.0% 150,000 9.0% Total Employment Growth (%) Office Employment Growth (%) 8.0% 100,000 EMPLOYMENT GROWTH BY INDUSTRY 7.0% Job12 Growth Months by -Industry Ending (Year January, over Year 2019 Change) 6.0% Professional and Business Services 50,000 Trade and Transportation 5.0% Leisure and Hospitality 0 4.0% Education and Health Services 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 YTD Finance and Insurance -50,000 3.0% Manufacturing 2.0% Government -100,000 1.0% Information -5,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 -150,000 0.0% JOBS Net Job Growth Unemployment Rate EMPLOYMENT Unemployment Trends Unemployment rates for Dallas-Fort Worth, Texas, and the United States hit highs during the last recession of 8.5% in late 2009. Since then, the unemployment rates in Dallas-Fort Worth have fallen consistently, reaching a low of 3.1% in late 2017, but have since then begun to drift upward over the past few months. Keep in mind the 3.1% was a low not seen in two business cycles (approximately 17 years ago). Currently, the unemployment rates for Dallas-Fort Worth, Texas, and the United States are 3.4%, 3.5%, and 3.6% respectively (as of May 2019). Unemployment numbers this low are considered full-employment, which could create some headwinds for future employment growth. youngerpartners.com 2 MARKETInsights Second Quarter 2019 / Office Research Report DALLAS-FORT WORTH Office Market Conditions Demand and Supply The DFW Office market moved back into the boom between 1997 and 2002 when more positive territory with just over 1 million square than 46 million square feet were built or the NET ABSORPTION & DELIVERIES feet of positive net absorption in the second “crazy ‘80s” when, between 1981 and 1986, NET ABSORPTION & DELIVERIES quarter of 2019. This bounce back from the almost 100 million square feet of space 3,000 previous quarter was largely the result of was completed. 2,500 several new construction projects being 2,000 1,500 completed, including Charles Schwab, Nokia, As of the end of June 2019, there was a total of NET ABSORPTION & DELIVERIES 1,000 USAA, Brinker International, Independent Bank 7,050,701 rentable square feet of office space 3,000 500 and more. Still, even with the healthy absorp- under construction in Dallas-Fort Worth. Of the 2,500 0 Square Feet 000's) Square tion, new deliveries outpaced demand and 7.1 million square feet of construction currently 2,000 -500 1,500 the vacancy rate continued to increase mod- underway, 4.7 million square feet is -1,000 16,000,000 1,000 erately, as it has over the past few years. Also, scheduled for delivery in the second half of 12,000,000 2017 Q1 2017 2015 Q1 2019 Q1 2016 Q1 2018 Q1 2014 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 2017 Q3 2017 2015 Q2 2019 Q2 2015 Q3 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 Q4 2017 2013 Q3 2013 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2015 Q4 2016 Q4 2013 Q4 2013 2018 Q4 500 2014 Q4 co-working companies continue to expand 2019. 0 Net Absorption SF Total Deliveries SF 8,000,000 Square Feet 000's) Square rapidly in DFW and other parts of the country. -500 4,000,000 In 2018, co-working companies expanded by Of the 7.1 million square feet of space currently -1,000 Class Net Absorption 400,000 square feet 0 under construction, 69% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2Q19 2017 Q1 2017 2015 Q1 2016 Q1 2019 Q1 2014 Q1 2018 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 2017 Q3 2017 2015 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 2015 Q3 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 Q4 2017 2019 Q2 2014 Q2 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 2014 Q3 2015 Q4 2016 Q4 2018 Q4 2,500 2014 Q4 in DFW and have Under Construction (SF) percent has been ac- 2,000 Net Absorption SF Total Deliveries SF LOCATION % OF CONSTRUCTION 1,500 already committed counted for through a 1,000 to almost 600,000 East DallasPreston Center Uptown combination of built-to- 500 CLASS NET ABSORPTION 4% 2% 1% Class Net Absorption square feet of addi- Southwest suits and pre-leasing. 0 Dallas 2,500 Square Feet (000's) -500 tional space so far 4% Richardson/Plano 2,000-1,000 this year. 5% Mid-Cities American Airlines and 1,500-1,500 37% 1,000 2016 Q2 2016 Q4 2017 Q2 2017 Q4 2018 Q2 2018 Q4 2019 Q2 Charles Schwab (phase 500 Class A Class B Class C Far North Dallas 0 Among the property 2) make the Mid-Cities 13% Square Feet (000's) -500 classes, Class A the most active submar- -1,000 properties absorbed ket from an office con- -1,500 2016 Q2 2016 Q4 2017 Q2 2017 Q4 2018 Q2 2018 Q4 2019 Q2 1,749,171 square feet in struction pipeline per- Class A Class B Class C the second quarter, spective.
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