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5-Day Weather Outlook 07.27.21

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5-Day Weather Outlook 07.27.21 Tuesday, July 27, 2021 5-Day Statewide Weather Outlook No Threat Low Threat Moderate Threat High Threat Damaging Flash River Excessive Day Lightning Tornado Wildfire Rip Currents Wind/Hail Flooding Flooding Heat Panhandle & North Tue Statewide Lower Santa Fe Statewide East Coast Florida West Coast North Lower Santa Fe Panhandle Wed Statewide Statewide Florida & St. Marys Elsewhere Lower Santa Fe North Florida Thu Statewide Statewide & St. Marys Elsewhere North Florida Fri Statewide Lower Santa Fe Statewide Elsewhere North Florida Panhandle Sat Statewide Lower Santa Fe Elsewhere Elsewhere Rain Chances This Week: Wednesday (left), Thursday (center), and Friday (right) Heat Index Forecasts for Thursday Afternoon Forecast Rainfall Totals Through Saturday Night Summertime in Florida: Hot, Humid, Afternoon Thunderstorms – Need I Say More? FDEM Statewide 5-Day Weather Outlook 07.27.21 Tuesday – Saturday: A typical summertime weather pattern will continue across the state this week. Each morning will begin with isolated showers and thunderstorms near the coasts and across the Keys, with mostly sunny skies elsewhere. Throughout the course of the day, thunderstorms will become more numerous and spread inland. After sunset, thunderstorms will begin to dissipate with just some isolated showers and thunderstorms after midnight along coastal areas. Due to a stalled out front, the highest rain chances of the week will be across North Florida on Tuesday and Wednesday. Lower rain chances are expected on Thursday and Friday, but another front may near North Florida this weekend and once again increase rain chances for the Interstate 10 corridor. As is typical for this time of year, a few thunderstorms across the state each day will be strong to briefly severe with damaging wind gusts of 45-60 mph. All thunderstorms will contain frequent lightning and heavy rainfall. A quick 2-4” of rain in 1-2 hours cannot be ruled out, and would result in some flooding given the saturated soils. High temperatures will generally reach the lower to middle 90s. When combined with the high humidity, the heat index (or what Maximum Feels temperatures will feel like) will be over 100 Like Temperature degrees in just about the entire state each Friday Afternoon afternoon. The heat index in some locations will reach 110 degrees late in the week, particularly in North Florida. Tropics: Tropical Development is not expected over the next 5 days. The area of low pressure that was monitored over the weekend has moved inland over Georgia and South Carolina. For the latest on the tropics, please visit the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov. The tropics are likely to remain in a quiet state for another 1-2 weeks before starting to wake back up. The overall weather pattern across the Atlantic is forecast to make a transition during the first week or two of August. It is not unusual for July to be quiet, as it is often the month with the least amount of named storms in a typical season. The heart of hurricane season is still a few weeks away, and tropical activity is surely to ramp up from mid-August and mid-October. FDEM Statewide 5-Day Weather Outlook 07.27.21 Hydrology & Flooding: A River Flood Warning is in effect for the Santa Fe River at Three River Estates and near Fort White and the St. Marys River at Current River Macclenny. The Santa Fe River will remain in Levels minor flood stage into next week as daily rain chances are keeping the river levels steady. The St. Marys River will briefly reach minor flood stage on Wednesday and Thursday before falling again. Several additional rivers across the state are in Action Stage from recent heavy rainfall. For more details on specific river levels, please visit the River Forecast Center. Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 13.54 feet, which is within the operational band, but 0.18 feet below normal for this time of year. Lake levels will continue to slowly rise due to recent rainfall despite the pulse releases continuing down the Caloosahatchee River. With a stalled front near North Florida today and Wednesday, any thunderstorms that develop may be slow moving. This will increase the risk of an isolated flash flood. Any thunderstorms will be capable of producing 1-3” of rain in an hour with 5-day rainfall totals across the state expected to range from 2-4”. Street flooding is possible in any urban areas. Rip Currents & Marine Hazards: Winds will be light and variable this week, driven by the daily sea breeze circulation. Each afternoon, light to at times breezy onshore winds can be expected at Florida beaches. This will be enough to create a moderate risk of rip currents for at least the eastern Panhandle and parts of the East Coast at times this week. The lightest winds are expected late in the week when most Florida beaches will have a low risk of rip currents. However, rip currents can still occur on low risk days! Wave heights will be 1-3’ statewide this week. FDEM Statewide 5-Day Weather Outlook 07.27.21 A significant Red Tide bloom continues along the West Coast of the Peninsula, including in Tampa Bay. While conditions have improved in Tampa Bay, they have deteriorated offshore of Charlotte and Lee County. High concentrations have been reported along the Gulf Coasts of Pasco, Pinellas, Manatee, and Sarasota County with medium concentrations along Hillsborough in Tampa Bay. While low concentrations have been observed along the immediate coasts of Charlotte and Lee Counties, high concentrations have been detected offshore. The bloom is expected to drift south this week impacting Charlotte and Lee. These high concentrations are resulting in respiratory irritation for both sensitive individuals and the general public, along with numerous fish kills. A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect until this evening for Charlotte and Lee County. Winds will be light but onshore for most the of the week. For the latest Red Tide concentration reports, please view the Florida Fish and Wildlife Commission map. NWS Mobile Daily Hazards NWS Tallahassee Daily Graphical Hazards NWS Jacksonville Daily Hazards NWS Melbourne Daily Graphical Hazards NWS Tampa Daily Graphical Hazards NWS Miami Daily Graphical Hazards NWS Key West Daily Hazards For the official National Weather Service forecast, please click on the following cities: Pensacola Panama City Tallahassee Gainesville Jacksonville Daytona Beach Orlando Tampa Fort Myers West Palm Beach Miami Key West Click here for the latest watches, warnings, and advisories from The National Weather Service For coastal and offshore forecasts throughout Florida and Georgia, please click here. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Have a great rest of the week! Michael Spagnolo, Deputy State Meteorologist Florida Division of Emergency Management www.FloridaDisaster.org FDEM Statewide 5-Day Weather Outlook 07.27.21 .
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