Atmospheric Environment 160 (2017) 1e8
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Atmospheric Environment
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Problems associated with the emissions limitations from road transport in the Lubuskie Province (Poland)
* Maciej Dziku c, Ph.D., Eng. a, , Janusz Adamczyk, Ph.D., Eng. a, Arkadiusz Piwowar, Ph.D., Eng. b a Faculty of Economics and Management, University of Zielona Gora, ul. Licealna 9, 65-417 Zielona Gora, Poland b Faculty of Engineering and Economics, Wrocław University of Economics, ul. Komandorska 118/120, 53-345 Wrocław, Poland highlights
In the article presents problems associated with main causes of low emissions from road transport. The article presents actions that can contribute to limitation of low emissions in Lubuskie Province (Poland). We focus the three-scenario simulation of annual emission that could take place in 2020. article info abstract
Article history: According to the report of the World Health Organization (WHO) on the list of 50 cities with the most Received 29 January 2017 polluted air in Europe as many as 33 are located in Poland. All the cities that are on the list exceed the Received in revised form maximum concentration of dust recommended by WHO at least three times. In the Lubuskie Province 17 March 2017 there is a very serious problem of maintaining good air quality. The air in Poland is among the most Accepted 8 April 2017 polluted in the European Union and this also applies to less-industrialized areas, such as Lubuskie, where Available online 12 April 2017 the concentration levels of substances hazardous to human health and the environment are recorded as exceeded. One of the main factors affecting the poor air quality in the region is road transport. It is not Keywords: fi Economy just a problem near roads with heavy traf c, but also applies to the cities, where there is a large Road transport movement of cars, which are often old and do not meet current environmental standards. This article Ecology aims to identify the main sources of low emission from road transport and identify potential solutions to Low emission help reduce emission from this sector. The actions aimed at limiting low emission from road transport Simulations can bring a significant positive ecological effect. The aim of this article is to review one of the main sources of low emission in the province of Lubuskie, which is transportation. Moreover, the authors of the paper indicate the main problems associated with the emission coming from road transport and describe the possibilities for opportunities to reduce pollution from this sector. In addition, the article presents the three-scenario simulation of annual emissions from passenger cars that could take place in 2020. © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
1. Introduction more than are killed in road accidents. In 2012, an estimated 6.5 million deaths in the world (11.6% of all global deaths) were asso- Poland has a very serious problem with excessive amount of ciated with air pollution. According to the report of the WHO on the harmful emissions that pollute the environment (Dziku c, 2015). list of 50 cities with the most polluted air in Europe as many as 33 Due to the excessive air pollution in Poland each year die prema- are located in Poland (World Health Organization, 2016). In 2015 turely more than 48 thousand of people, which is several times the European Commission brought the case to the European Court of Justice in Luxembourg against Poland for failure to comply with EU air quality legislation (We˛dzik et al., 2017). For too many air pollutants Poland has to pay a penalty of up to 1 billion euro. * Corresponding author. E-mail addresses: [email protected] (M. Dziku c), [email protected]. Although the analysis of previously conducted assessments of air zgora.pl (J. Adamczyk), [email protected] (A. Piwowar). quality indicates that the level of pollutants emitted into the http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2017.04.011 1352-2310/© 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). 2 M. Dziku c et al. / Atmospheric Environment 160 (2017) 1e8 atmosphere in Poland was reduced still the level of concentrations suspended particulates PM10 and PM2.5, of certain substances in the air is considerably exceeded. A partic- aromatic hydrocarbons, ular problem in Lubuskie and throughout the country is particulate heavy metals. matter PM2.5, which is particularly harmful to human health and life (Eeftens et al., 2015). Such small grains with no obstacles reach Among all the pollutants from road transport emitted into the upper respiratory tracks, the lungs and pass into the blood air nitrogen oxides have the largest share. In 2014 nitrogen oxides (Polichetti et al., 2009). In the case of prolonged exposure to the coming from road transport had more than 30% share in the total increased concentrations of particulate matter, they can have a emissions of the substance in Poland, which had the largest share in significant impact on the course of heart disease or increased risk of 2013 (Table 1). Although the amount of nitrogen oxide emissions is developing cancer. The bad air quality in Poland is mainly affected largely dependent on changes in emissions from fuel combustion by low emission that comes from the pollutants released into the processes in the energy and can be relatively quickly reduced by atmosphere with emitters not exceeding 40 m in height (Dziku c reducing the consumption of solid fuels (Dziku c and Piwowar, and Adamczyk, 2015). The formation of low emission in Poland is 2016; Piwowar and Dziku c, 2016), which shows an example of a mainly the effect of an installation for heating and means of significant part of the EU countries, in the case of road transport the communication (Burchart-Korol et al., 2016). The aim of this article amount of emissions in Poland is decreasing very slowly. Most of is to review one of the main sources of low emission in the province the reductions were caused by the decline of the heavy industry of Lubuskie, which is transportation. Moreover, the authors of the and lower share of coal in the late 1980s and early 1990s. Sub- paper indicate the main problems associated with the emission stantial emissions from road traffic contribute to the national total. coming from road transport and describe the possibilities for op- Compared to the year 2013, in 2014 NOx emissions decreased by portunities to reduce pollution from this sector (Fameli and 6.5%. Decrease in emissions in road transport was caused by lower Assimakopoulos, 2015; Casals and García, 2015). It should be use of liquid fuels (De˛bski et al., 2016). Although there is an noted that low emission occurs typically at the level of up to 10 m, increasing share of new cars that meet the environmental stan- which is a problem especially during calm weather, as the pollution dards for newly manufactured vehicles, which emit significantly remains in the vicinity of their formation. This results in a signifi- less NOx (Xu and Lin, 2016), however, the total number of vehicles cant negative impact on the people living nearby. The problem of on Polish roads increases. Emissions of NOX decreased by over 32% emissions from the road transport sector relates specifically to between 1990 and 2014. NOx and particulate matter had the congested cities and surrounding roads, which handle the highest share in the road emission in Poland (Table 2). increased vehicular traffic. Another pollutant, which has a large share in the total emission Transport in Europe is responsible for almost one quarter of in Poland is carbon monoxide. The emission of this substance is an greenhouse gas emissions and is a major cause of air pollution in important issue not only in the Lubuskie Province but throughout cities. The European Union assumes that by 2050 greenhouse gas the country. The carbon monoxide emission in 2014 was over 20% emissions from the transport sector should fall by at least 60% from share of the total emission in the country. It should be noted, the level taking place in 1990. In contrast, the emissions of harmful however, that the level of carbon monoxide emission was slightly substances to human health from air transport into the atmosphere reduced in 2014 compared to 2013 (Table 3). CO emission in Poland must be radically reduced (European Commission, 2016). depends mainly on changes in the quantities of used coal and wood for heating by households (Dziku c, 2013). However, the high share of CO emission coming from road transport suggests that the total 2. The road transport as a source of emissions to air in Poland emission also strongly depends on the amount of fuels and
The emissions from road transport sector adversely affect hu- man health and the environment, by producing about 10% of the Table 2 impurities that reach the air in Poland. This share is slightly Emissions of NOx and particulate matter from road transport in Poland (Department different in each province and the differences are affected by factors of Climatology and Atmosphere Protection (2017)). fi such as the number of roads, traf c and population density in the Specification NOx Particulate matter particular area. The polluants, which mostly come from the trans- Cars (weight up to 3.5 Mg) 50% 63% port sector are mainly: Trucks (weight over 3.5 Mg) 38% 28% Buses 6% 4% nitrogen oxides, Farm tractors 6% 5% Tolal 100% 100% carbon monoxide,
Table 1 Emissions of nitrogen oxides in Poland in years 2013e2014 (De˛bski et al., 2016).
Emission source Emissions of NOx 2013 2014 2014/2013 % Mg % Mg %
Combustion processes in the industry 68 210.7 8.81 67 975.1 9.40 99.65 Combustion processes in the production and transformation of energy 244 475.7 31.58 217 220.4 30.04 88.85 Combustion processes outside the industry 93 749.1 12.11 84 036.2 11.62 89.64 Production processes 23 454.5 3.03 23 776.6 3.29 101.37 The use of solvents and other products 0.1 0.00 0.1 0.00 100.00 Road transport 230 467.2 29.78 220 625.4 30.51 95.73 Other vehicles and equipment 100 387.5 12.97 96 832.2 13.39 96.46 Waste management 1719.4 0.22 1820.5 0.25 105.88 Agriculture 11 623.0 1.50 10 827.6 1.50 93.16 Total 774 087.2 100.00 723 114.1 100.00 93.42 M. Dziku c et al. / Atmospheric Environment 160 (2017) 1e8 3
Table 3 Emission of carbon monoxide in the years 2013e2014 (De˛bski et al., 2016).
Emission source Emissions of CO
2013 2014 2014/2013 % Mg % Mg %
Combustion processes in the industry 245 186.8 8.55 259 256.9 9.59 105.74 Combustion processes in the production and transformation of energy 48 845.0 1.70 45 873.7 1.69 93.92 Combustion processes outside the industry 1 843 353.1 64.27 1 681 080.5 62.18 91.20 Production processes 45 680.4 1.59 49 790.1 1.84 109.00 The use of solvents and other products 5.1 0.00 4.3 0.00 84.31 Road transport 581 237.8 20.26 563 116.6 20.83 96.88 Other vehicles and equipment 80 967.6 2.82 78 360.3 2.90 96.78 Waste management 20 501.8 0.72 20 507.4 0.76 100.03 Agriculture 2 554.9 0.09 5 718.9 0.21 223.84 Total 2 868 332.5 100.00 2 703 708.7 100.00 94.26
Table 4 Emissions of PM2.5 in Poland in 2013e2014 (Debski et al., 2016).
Emission source Emissions of PM2.5
2013 2014 2014/2013 % Mg % Mg %
Combustion processes in the industry 10 153.6 7.08 10 370.6 7.67 102.14 Combustion processes in the production and transformation of energy 14 515.8 10.12 13 465.3 9.96 92.76 Combustion processes outside the industry 73 584.9 51.29 67 051.4 49.60 91.12 Production processes 7 208.7 5.02 7 528.2 5.57 104.43 Extraction and distribution of fossil fuels 714.5 0.50 685.7 0.51 95.97 The use of solvents and other products 1 673.9 1.17 1 417.4 1.05 84.68 Road transport 18 736.8 13.06 18 152.8 13.43 96.88 Other vehicles and equipment 9 521.7 6.64 9 186.5 6.80 96.48 Waste management 6 843.6 4.77 6 596.3 4.88 96.39 Agriculture 378.9 0.26 458.3 0.34 120.96 Other sources of emission and absorption of pollutants 131.4 0.09 255.1 0.19 194.14 Total 143 463.8 100.00 135 167.6 100.00 94.22
technologies for cars. from road transport. According to the authors, the most serious issue of all sub- Analysing the emission coming from road transport hexa- stances that come from road transport is suspended dust, both chlorobenzene (HCB) should also be taken into account, which is a PM2.5 and PM10. Analysing the data in Table 4 it should be noted derivative of benzene. The HCB emission in 2014 accounted for over that the average decrease in emissions of PM2.5 in 2014 compared 16% of the total quantity of the substance that got into the air. to 2013 was higher than in the case of road transport. This can mean Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCB) is another substance having a that the actions taken so far to reduce emissions of particulate relatively high share (7.2%) of the total emission in Poland. Inter- matter from road transport should be intensified. The share of estingly, in 2014 compared to 2013, there was a significant decrease PM2.5 and PM10 in the total emission of particulate matter in 2014 in the share of PCB emission coming from transport (from 8% to amounted to 13.5% and 9% respectively (De˛bski et al., 2016). In the 7.2%), which took place due to less consumption of diesel oil by case of road transport the problem is not only the exhaust gases trucks. Apart from the abovementioned substances that negatively produced during the combustion of fuel, but also the consumption affect human health and the environment, and come from trans- of vehicle components, such as tires, brake discs, clutch plates and port, it is necessary to take into account some heavy metals, such consumed road surface. Furthermore, during road transport there as: is emitted secondary dust pollution from the surface of exposed roads and streets, which has spotted participation in the country chromium (Cr), (2.98%) of sources responsible for exceeding the permissible level of nickel (Ni), PM10 (Panstwowy Monitoring Srodowiska, 2015). cadmium (Cd), In Poland, a very serious problem is the notorious and repeat- lead (Pb) edly exceeded benzo(a)pyrene (B(a)P) contained in particulate copper (Cu). matter, which takes place almost throughout the country. Although the combustion of solid fuels in the domestic boiler is the main In 2014, in Poland Cr emission coming from the transport was source of emission of this substance, also car transportation has a 3.8% share. The share in total emission of other heavy metals, 5% share, but local share could be as high as 10% (Kobus et al., 2016). however, which usually occur in the dust suspended was as Analysing air pollution that comes from road transport, it is also follows: necessary to take into account the emission of non-methane vol- atile organic compounds (NMVOC). Although the emission of Ni e 3.2%, NMVOC takes place most common during the combustion of solid Cd e 3.1%, fuels, also a significant part of the pollution comes from road Pb e 2.8%, transport. In 2014, over 19% of NMVOC emission in Poland came Cu e 1.1%. 4 M. Dziku c et al. / Atmospheric Environment 160 (2017) 1e8
The size of those emissions from road transport is mainly influenced by:
the number of vehicles, traffic management, state of the road surface, driving style, age of vehicles.
According to the Automotive Market Research Institute SAMAR the average age of passenger cars in Poland in 2016 was 15 years (Automotive Market Research Institute SAMAR, 2017). It is also very disturbing that in 2016 over 1 million used cars were brought to Poland, whose average age was nearly 12 years. It should be emphasized that older cars do not meet current standards related to maximum emission limit values of harmful substances into the atmosphere (Kacperczyk and Rzymek, 2015). In Poland there is a European emissions standard, which applies to most new vehicles (cars, trucks, trains, buses, agricultural ma- chinery, boats) sold in the European Union (Crippa et al., 2016). The standards limit emissions for new cars have been included in the European Directives. Engines used to power cars and trucks are characterized by increasingly higher energy efficiency. Despite fluctuations, there is an increase in demand for passenger and freight transportation. Fig. 1. Location of the Lubuskie Province in Poland. The forecasts indicate that in the future it will also grow. In Poland and Europe more and more passenger cars are sold, which are powered by diesel engines (European Environment Agency, 2016). 4. The problem of road transport emissions in the Lubuskie Despite the efforts of engineers from car companies it was observed Province a significant difference between the measurements of NOx levels in real driving conditions and in the conditions prevailing during the The measurements of emissions of pollutants into the air in the e research. According to the data of International Council on Clean Lubuskie Province in 2013 2014 revealed that the main problem in terms of air quality is too high concentrations of PM10. The values Transportation the level of NOx emission in real driving conditions of diesel vehicles is on average seven times higher than the limits exceeding the allowed standard concentrations occurred in all set in Euro 6 standard (Mock et al., 2014). It should be noted that measuring stations in the province. An additional problem was Euro 6 standard was met by vehicles that were tested. In order to exceeding the permissible value of the arsenic contained in PM10 in eliminate this difference the EU authorities have adopted a pro- the area of three of the six zones in the Lubuskie Province (Susek, 2015). cedure for the testing of NOx emission, which is to be carried out in real driving conditions and in the future will include new cars It should be noted that the level of emissions of particulate (European Environment Agency, 2016). matter PM10 is also affected by air pollution coming from abroad, fi The transport sector in Poland has been currently shaped in which relates speci cally to the border province of Lubuskie. The such a way that it dominates the personal transport. While public emission from neighbouring countries in the whole country has a transport is not sufficiently well developed to be able to effectively share of 1.17%. However, in Lubuskie this rate is much higher and it compete with individual transport. is due to among the others the dominant directions of winds in this part of the country. The level of emission in Lubuskie, which comes from a source located outside Poland, is also influenced by the German power plant Janschwalde€ fired with brown coal, which is 3. Characteristics of the Lubuskie Province located near the Polish-German border (about 50 km). During the combustion of fuel in car engines gaseous pollutants The Lubuskie Province is one of the smallest provinces in Poland penetrate into the atmosphere, associated with the burning of fuels in terms of population and the occupied area, with a relatively low and dust generated by the use of parts of vehicles and roads. Be- fi industrialization and the largest afforestation. Lubuskie is located sides local traf c an additional problem for the Lubuskie Province is fi in the central-western part of Poland and is inhabited by a little transit traf c. The places in Fig. 2 with the increased levels of ni- more than 1 million people (Fig. 1). The area of the province is 14 trogen dioxide emissions coincide with the course of the A2 thousand km2, which represents 4.5% of Polish territory. Although motorway and parallel national road No. 92 (east-west), which are about half of the Lubuskie Province is covered by forests, which popular in the region of Lubuskie with cars on the route Berlin- could suggest that the air quality is extremely good, the conducted Warsaw. It should be noted that the Lubuskie section of the A2 measurements indicate concentrations exceeding permissible motorway almost 18 thousand cars pass during the day, and levels of some harmful substances in the air. The air quality in extending along the highway alternative national road no. 92 over 8 Lubuskie is slightly better than in more industrialized and more thousand of cars per day (General Directorate for National Roads densely populated parts of Poland. However, the level of emission and Highways, 2017a,b). The increased level of nitrogen dioxide of certain hazardous substances in recent years has not housed in emission also takes place near the road S3 (north-south), which is the standards adopted by the European Union. The bad air quality daily passed on average by over 15 thousand of cars. Moreover, in in Lubuskie is mainly affected by the installations for heating Fig. 2 it is possible to see the place course of national road no. 18, ł buildings and road transport. part of the route Berlin-Wroc aw (south-western part of the M. Dziku c et al. / Atmospheric Environment 160 (2017) 1e8 5
Fig. 2. Emissions of nitrogen dioxide in the Lubuskie Province in 2015 (Krauze- Biernaczyk et al., 2016). Fig. 3. Distribution of the concentration of benzo(a)pyrene contained in particulate matter PM10 in Lubuskie Province in 2015 (Krauze-Biernaczyk et al., 2016).
Lubuskie Province). It should be noted that the traffic data comes from the first half of 2015, and since then, traffic has been increased. was to be solved by Caesar Regulation, which forbade the transport The forecasts for traffic indicate a further increase in the trafficon of cargo during the day. However, this restriction meant that the transit routes running through the Lubuskie Province (General delivery took place at night, which led to an increase in noise levels. Directorate for National Roads and Highways, 2017a,b). These The residents opposed to such a solution because the noise forecasts are also confirmed by an increasing trend concerning the disturbed their sleep and a ban on the transportation of cargo number of registered cars in Lubuskie and in the entire Poland. during the day was abolished and deliveries again were realized for An important substance, which is a component of particulate the day (Wachs, 2002). Currently, reducing car traffic in cities matter, which significantly pollutes the air in Lubuskie is B(a)P. The centres is implemented in different ways. The following solutions 3 data from 2015 points to exceed the target value of B(a)P (1 ng/m ). can be distinguished: Due to it all zones in Lubuskie were classified as class C, which causes the need to develop air protection programmes for this area. a ban on entry of vehicles not meeting certain environmental As mentioned earlier road transport has a small share in the total standards, emissions of B(a)P, which is confirmed by Fig. 3, in which the construction of lanes dedicated for buses only, increased levels of this substance are concentrated at larger towns construction of lines for urban rail, of the Lubuskie Province. designation of free parking zones for electric cars, distribution of stations for fast charging electric vehicles, fi fl 5. The proposals to reduce the level of emissions from road ensuring traf c ow of vehicles, fi transport excluding parts of roads for car traf c, expansion of bicycle paths and pedestrian infrastructure, There is a number of effective solutions to reduce the emissions implementation of cheaper or free public transport, from road transport (Talbi, 2017). One of them is the development improvement of road infrastructure, e.g. construction of ring of public transport in city centres (Solís and Sheinbaum, 2013). The roads, fi authorities of the Lubuskie Province and particular cities in the improving the ef ciency of existing infrastructure, e.g. intro- fi region will have to consider a ban on entry to the city centres of duction of solutions to improve lighting installation of traf c older cars that do not meet current environmental standards. control, Similar solutions have been successfully used for many years in introduction of paid parking zones, many cities in the EU. reserving part of the parking spaces for hybrid cars (Aggarwal Reducing car traffic in cities centres is another solution that can and Jain, 2016). effectively help to reduce low emission. The first attempts to limit the traffic that exceeded the capacity of urban road infrastructure Some of the solutions that are effective in reducing low emission were already taken in antiquity. In ancient Rome there was trafficto from transport in urban centres can also be used outside urban a degree that caused a paralysis of communication. The problem areas (François et al., 2017). These include, among others: 6 M. Dziku c et al. / Atmospheric Environment 160 (2017) 1e8 implementation of cheaper public transport, providing traffic flow were registered 10% of the cars that met the standard EURO VI, 20% of vehicles, development of fast charging stations for electric ve- met the standard EURO V, 15% of EURO IV, 20% of EURO III, 20% of hicles or improving the efficiency of existing infrastructure the standard EURO II and 15% cars met the standard EURO I. In (Buekers et al., 2014). contrast, about 30% of cars in the Lubuskie Province is powered by Furthermore, the low emission reduction can be promoted by diesel engines and about 55% by gasoline (Automotive Market road transport based on vehicles powered by LPG and CNG. Some Research Institute SAMAR, 2017). It means that the share of cars car companies offer vehicles that are fitted with LPG installation. powered by gasoline and diesel accounts for 85% of all cars in the Reducing the emission of harmful substances through wider use of Lubuskie Province. The remaining 15% of cars have petrol engine gas in road transport can be an interesting solution that will reduce with LPG, hybrid and electric drives and they were overlooked in low emission. In contrast, the next step should be the development the analyses due to their much lower share in the total emissions of road transport based on engines that definitely will improve coming from road transport. In Table 5, to simplify the calculations today's emissivity indexes. An interesting solution seems to be cars there were combined values of HC and NOx. After taking into ac- with electric or hydrogen motors that will not be much more count these assumptions the values of the emission in the Lubuskie expensive than traditional vehicles and at the same time will be Province were calculated in Table 5, which was associated with the able to compete with the range with currently manufactured cars movement of passenger cars in 2016. driven by fuels based on hydrocarbons. Moreover, a three-scenario simulation was carried out, which Apart from using newer technology in road transport, it is also takes into account the value of annual emission coming from pas- important to promote vehicle driving in such a way that they senger cars that could take place in 2020. For all scenarios an consume less fuel (i.e. eco-driving). Due to promoting eco-driving, average annual mileage of cars amounting to 16 thousand km was including among the others liquid and not overly dynamic driving, assumed. it is possible to save approximately 5e8% of fuel. Some studies point Scenario I (pessimistic) assumes: to achieve an even greater reduction in the combustion of up 25e30%, which is possible by reducing vehicle speed on highways the number of cars in 2020 will grow by 10% compared to 2016; (Zhang and Yao, 2015; Ahlstroma and Kirchera, 2017). The problem 3% of cars will meet a higher standard EURO (by one level), began to be noticed by transport companies that send their em- which means that the share of cars that meet the lowest stan- ployees on compulsory training (Sullman et al., 2015). The results of dard (EURO 1) drops by 3%, and the share of cars that meet the the conducted training give the intended effects and more and highest standard (EURO 6) will increase by 3%; more companies decide to invest in skills of their employees, which the share of cars with petrol and diesel engines did not change; bring significant cost savings (Cucchiella et al., 2017). there will not increase the share of cars with the installation of Another interesting solution that allows for saving fuel con- gas, hybrid and electric drives. sumption and, consequently, for reducing low emission is called carpooling, which is a journey with the use of free space in the Scenario II (probable) implies: vehicle of another user or taking other people in the case of self- driving car (Shaheen et al., 2016). This solution is becoming more the number of cars will increase by 5% compared to 2016; and more popular in Poland, especially on longer routes due to the 6% of cars will meet a higher standard EURO (by one level), significant reduction in transport costs for both the vehicle owner which means that the share of cars that meet the lowest stan- and the taken person. On the Internet there are sites linking centres dard (EURO 1) drops by 6%, and the share of cars that meet the offering drivers vacancies with people seeking transport. With the highest standard (EURO 6) will increase by 6%; rapid exchange of information carpooling has the potential for the share of cars with engines fuelled by gasoline with LPG, dynamic development. hybrid and electric drives will increase to 20%; The activities that the authorities in the Lubuskie Province will the share of cars with diesel engines will be 28% and 52% of need to consider in the long-term are the restrictions the munici- gasoline. palities of Athens, Madrid, Paris and Mexico decided on in December 2016. It prohibits in these cities the movement of cars Scenario III (optimistic) assumes: powered by diesel engines from 2025. The authorities in the identified four cities have announced that they will promote the the number of cars will remain at the same level; use of vehicles powered by electric motors. The most far-reaching 10% of cars will meet a higher standard EURO (by one level), restrictions are supposed to be introduced by the authorities of which means that the share of cars that meet the lowest stan- Athens, who intend to completely prohibit private cars entering the dard (EURO 1) drops by 10%, and the share of cars that meet the city centre. However, in return, they want to introduce a well- highest standard (EURO 6) will increase by 10%; functioning public transport. the share of cars with engines fuelled by gasoline with LPG, hybrid and electric drives will increase to 25%; 6. Three-scenario simulation of annual emission coming the share of cars with diesel engines will be 25% and 50% of from passenger cars that could take place in 2020 gasoline.
According to European Automobile Manufacturers' Association Table 6 presents the results of calculations for the three assumed (ACEA) in Poland in 2015 there were 526 cars per 1 000 inhabitants, scenarios. Scenario I (pessimistic) assumes the growth of emission which is slightly above the EU average, which at that time from passenger cars in 2020 due to the increase in their number amounted to 498 cars per 1 000 people (European Automobile and the slow increase in the share of cars that meet higher stan- Manufacturers' Association, 2017). The Lubuskie Province is dards of Euro (by 3%). In contrast, Scenario II (probable) indicates inhabited by a little more than 1 million people. It can therefore be the reduction of emission, while the largest reduction (over 15% for assumed that the number of cars in the Lubuskie was 526 thousand 2016) is to concern particulate matter, which is particularly in 2014, while at the end of 2016 the number of cars could be at a dangerous for human health. The most optimistic in terms of the comparable level. According to SAMAR and own studies it can be environment and human health is Scenario III because the calcu- assumed that at the end of 2016 in the Lubuskie Province there lations indicate more than 35% of reduction in particulate matter M. Dziku c et al. / Atmospheric Environment 160 (2017) 1e8 7
Table 5 EU Emission Standards for Passenger Cars and emissions in the Lubuskie Province in 2016 (Transport Policy, 2017).
Stage CO HC þ NOx PM km/year Number of cars CO HC þ NOx PM g/km Mg
Compression Ignition (Diesel) Euro 1 3.16 1.13 0.14 16 000 23 670 1 197 428 53 Euro 2 1.0 0.7 0.08 31 560 505 353 40 Euro 3 0.64 0.56 0.05 31 560 323 283 25 Euro 4 0.50 0.30 0.025 23 670 189 114 9 Euro 5 0.50 0.23 0.005 31 560 252 116 3 Euro 6 0.50 0.17 0.005 15 780 126 43 1 Positive Ignition (Gasoline) Euro 1 3.16 1.13 e 16 000 43 395 2 194 785 0 Euro 2 2.2 0.5 e 57 860 2037 463 0 Euro 3 2.30 0.35 e 57 860 2 129 324 0 Euro 4 1.0 0.18 e 43 395 694 125 0 Euro 5 1.0 0.16 0.005 57 860 926 148 5 Euro 6 1.0 0.16 0.005 28 930 463 74 2 Total 447 100 11 036 3 256 139
Table 6 The forecasted emissions coming from cars in the Lubuskie Province in 2020 (Scenarios I-III).
Stage km/year Scenario I Scenario II Scenario III
Number of cars CO HC þ NOx PM Number of cars CO HC þ NOx PM Number of cars CO HC þ NOx PM Mg Mg Mg
Compression Ignition (Diesel) Euro 1 16 000 20 830 1 053 377 47 13 918 704 252 31 6 575 332 119 15 Euro 2 34 716 555 389 44 30 929 495 346 40 26 300 421 295 34 Euro 3 34 716 355 311 28 30 929 317 277 25 26 300 269 236 21 Euro 4 26 037 208 125 10 23 197 186 111 9 19 725 158 95 8 Euro 5 34 716 278 128 3 30 929 247 114 2 26 300 210 97 2 Euro 6 22 565 181 61 2 24 743 198 67 2 26 300 210 72 2 Positive Ignition (Gasoline) Euro 1 16 000 38 188 1931 690 0 25 848 1 307 467 0 13 150 665 238 0 Euro 2 63 646 2 240 509 0 57 439 2022 460 0 52 600 1852 421 0 Euro 3 63 646 2 342 356 0 57 439 2 114 322 0 52 600 1936 295 0 Euro 4 47 735 764 137 0 43 079 689 124 0 39 450 631 114 0 Euro 5 63 646 1 018 163 5 57 439 919 147 5 52 600 842 135 4 Euro 6 41 370 662 106 3 45 951 735 118 4 52 600 842 135 4 Total 491 810 11 588 3 353 142 441 840 9 932 2 805 118 394 500 8 368 2 248 90
and a slightly smaller reduction of the rest of the analysed sub- increasing public awareness of this issue. In recent years, local stances (HC þ NOx and CO). It is necessary to note the likelihood of communities in the Lubuskie Province have been able to organize each scenario affects a number of unforeseeable factors. The most and force the local government to a significant increase in invest- important of these include the policy of state authorities, who can ment in the construction of infrastructure for pedestrians and, introduce e.g. higher fees for the use of less green cars and the local which is particularly noticeable, for cyclists. These actions allow to authorities that can ban travel of cars to the city centres that do not significantly reduce car traffic and thus the level of emission from meet e.g. standards Euro 5 and 6. In addition, there are many less road transport. Also the activities related to the development of important issues, which have a much smaller impact on whether public transport are very important. Recently it has been possible to the residents of the Lubuskie Province will be willing to buy green observe the development of public transport, among others, there cars. An example would be the introduction in 2017 of free parking has been created local rail connections. However, these solutions for owners of cars with hybrid and electric drives in Zielona Gora, were not effective enough to be able to compete with individual car which is the largest city in the Lubuskie Province. transport. In this regard, there is still much to be done in the Lubuskie Province. 7. Conclusions Moreover, in Lubuskie in order to reduce low emission from road transport it will be necessary to impose restrictions that Road transport significantly contributes to the development of currently exist in many places in Europe. One of them is the entry the Polish economy and due to the proximity of the Lubuskie ban on older cars that do not meet current environmental stan- Province with the German economy, which is the world's leading, dards. Another option that could be an effective incentive to pur- this sector is rapidly developing in the region. Road transport is one chase newer and greener cars is the introduction of higher taxes on of the key factors for economic development, thanks to which trade less ecological cars. These solutions are effective and used suc- is developing and there are created job opportunities outside the cessfully in Germany. Unfortunately, in Poland the same solution place of residence. Unfortunately, road transport is not only energy are likely to encounter public resistance, which is why local and intensive, but also has a strong impact on the environment. national authorities are afraid to make unpopular decisions. Sce- An encouraging sign, which suggests that the problem of low nario analysis indicates the possibility of reducing or increasing the emission from road transport will be limited in the future is level of emissions, depending on the decision taken by the 8 M. Dziku c et al. / Atmospheric Environment 160 (2017) 1e8 authorities. European Commission, A European Strategy for low- emission mobility,