Annual Report

ology Center PENN STATE | 2013-14

1 ology Center is an interdisciplinary research center within the College of Health and Human Development at Penn State. We develop new quantitative methods for social, behavioral, and health sciences research focusing on vital public health issues, especially alcohol, tobacco, and other drug abuse and HIV.

2 3 develop the methods needed to design efficient SMARTs Welcome to The Methodology and analyze the resulting data. For more on SMARTs, see Center’s Annual Report pages 9-11. We enthusiastically seek collaborations with behavioral As a National Institute on Drug Abuse P50 Center of scientists to both improve public health and expand Excellence, The Methodology Center serves as a national research methods. One example is Methodology Center resource on cutting-edge applied statistical methods for Principal Investigator Runze Li’s collaboration with Saul the behavioral, social, and health sciences. Our objective Shiffman of the University of Pittsburgh. Saul is a leader in is to improve public health by improving public health innovative approaches to collecting intensive longitudinal research. We identify important emerging methodological data by of ecological momentary assessment. issues based on our knowledge of the field and our Runze is a leader in approaches to analysis of intensive collaborations with behavioral scientists. Center longitudinal data. Their collaboration is developing new scientists then conduct original research to develop new mechanisms for understanding the complex nature of the methodological approaches and incorporate approaches process of smoking cessation. Now if that isn’t a match developed in other disciplines to meet those needs. made in heaven… The Methodology Center comprises more than 20 Ph.D.- You will learn more about our research in the following level scientists and a host of graduate student trainees. pages. I am proud to share this report with you, and I We have created a stimulating work environment that hope you enjoy reading it as much as we have enjoyed brings together researchers from a dozen disciplinary preparing it. backgrounds, including , , mathematics, human development, psychology, and public health. Our original research draws from and integrates many disciplinary perspectives on methodology. Methodology Center Principal Investigator Susan Murphy recently was named a MacArthur Fellow Linda Collins Director, The Methodology Center (i.e., a MacArthur “Genius”) for her work on the sequential, Professor, Department of Human Development multiple assignment, randomized trial (SMART) for and Family Studies Professor, Department of Statistics building treatments that adapt to patient need. In this research, Susan collaborates with computer scientists to To learn more, visit methodology.psu.edu.

3 Dissemination The Methodology Center disseminates methods to behavioral Free software this year researchers via in-person presentations and online resources. 5 new releases, 6,000+ downloads Our recent emphasis on dissemination has led to many more researchers using our methods and software.

Website visits per grant year Presentations, workshops per year

90,000

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60,000

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40,000

40 30,000

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0 0 2009-2010 2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

4 5 New Grants Opt-in: Optimizing intensive Prescription opioid dependence: intervention for weight loss Physiology, emotion, and treatment National Institute of Diabetes and outcome Digestive and Kidney National Institute on Drug Abuse Co-PIs: Bonnie Spring, Co-PIs: Roger Meyer, Scott Bunce, Northwestern University; Linda Penn State School of Medicine; Center Collins Investigator: Stephanie Lanza Aim: to develop an Internet-and-phone-based weight-loss Aim: to study physiological and behavioral intervention using MOST. This will allow an effective but changes during recovery from addiction to prescription opioids. expensive intervention to be delivered at much lower cost. This study will use EMA data collected via smartphones to better understand the recovery process of recently detoxified patients and its link to later relapse. A systems science approach to sexual Adaptive intervention for risk behavior in young women minimally verbal children with National Institute of Child Health and autism in the community Human Development, Office of Research on National Institute on Child Health Women’s Health and Human Development, Autism PI: Sara Vaselinko; Investigators: Runze Li, Centers of Excellence Stephanie Lanza PI: Connie Kasari, University of California, Los Angeles; Center Aim: to understand the changing sexual risk Investigator: Daniel Almirall behavior of young women across multiple Aim: to develop an adaptive intervention that increases the relationships. Researchers will employ time-varying effect models amount of verbal communication for children with autism. This is to analyze electronic diary data to learn how sexual risks change one of several grants on which Methodology Center researchers over time and to understand disparities between racial, ethnic, contribute expertise in SMART. See pages 10-11 for more and socioeconomic groups. information. 5 Collaboration We foster methodological and behavioral science collaborations.

Time-Varying MOST Framework SMART Designs Causal Inference Effect Models

Drug abuse Substance abuse HIV Smoking Smoking Autism Obesity Risky sex Future Future research research Adherence Alcohol dependence mediation Delinquency Drug abuse Time-varying Obesity ADHD Implementation Withdrawal Mixture TVEM

Latent class causal analysis Latent Class Analysis

We collaborate with top public health researchers, including Alcohol ➤ Smoking optimizing a smoking-cessation treatment with Timothy Delinquency Baker and Michael Fiore at the University of Wisconsin, Health disparities

➤ developing adaptive treatments for drug abuse with Michael Dennis at Chestnut Health Systems, and

➤ studying the impact of responsive feeding on childhood obesity with Leann Birch at Penn State.

6 7 Research Projects

The Methodology Center has five highly collaborative research projects. Each project addresses a critical problem in data analysis or experimental design. To foster new collaborations, The Methodology Center funds pilot projects by researchers from a variety of disciplines.

Latent Class Analysis (LCA)

Latent class analysis (LCA) uncovers unobservable NEXT STEP subgroups within a population. By expanding the available To develop new recommendations for dealing with LCA models, we make it possible for scientists to better in LCA understand complex behaviors and to target interventions to the subgroups who will benefit most. Central to this RECENT GRANT project is the ongoing development of PROC LCA, SAS Advancing tobacco research by integrating system software for conducting LCA that has been downloaded science and mixture models thousands of times. National Cancer Institute: R01-CA168676 2013 HIGHLIGHT PI: Stephanie Lanza; Investigator: Runze Li New methods and software integrating causal inference Stephanie Lanza with LCA Principal investigator 7 Research Projects Causal Inference Causal inference research seeks to identify the impact of NEXT STEP exposure to a particular treatment or condition. Center To estimate the causal effect of implementation work on causal inference focuses on using propensity fidelity on youth enrolled in a life-skills curriculum scores to infer cause in observational studies. This allows scientists to more accurately identify agents of RECENT GRANT change and thus develop more effective and efficient Marginal causal models for observational studies in interventions. obesity research 2013 HIGHLIGHT National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases: R21-DK082858 New methods and software integrating causal inference PI: Donna Coffman Donna Coffman with LCA Principal investigator Time-Varying Effect Models (TVEM) Time-varying effect models (TVEM) enable researchers NEXT STEP to answer new questions about complex data collected To publish special issue of Nicotine and Tobacco using mobile technology. TVEMs allow researchers to Research on new methods for tobacco research uncover changes in relationships between variables in a flexible way. Researchers are also exploring new ways to RECENT GRANT jointly model time-varying effects and time to an event. A systems science approach to sexual risk behavior in young women 2013 HIGHLIGHT National Institute of Child Health and Human Grant awarded to integrate mixture models with TVEM to Development: R03-HD077011 identify profiles of withdrawal among quitting smokers PI: Sara Vaselinko; Investigators: Runze Li, Stephanie Runze Li Lanza Principal investigator

8 9 Research Projects Multiphase Optimization Strategy (MOST) The multiphase optimization strategy (MOST) is a NEXT STEP framework for engineering effective and efficient To develop an online weight loss intervention that is behavioral interventions. MOST emphasizes careful maximally effective and efficient management of research resources to maximize the gain of scientific information. This framework can be used to RECENT GRANT develop new behavioral interventions, improve existing A tobacco intervention laboratory interventions, and promote Type I and Type II translation of research. National Cancer Institute: P50-CA143188 Core PI: Linda Collins 2013 HIGHLIGHT Newly funded projects focusing on weight loss, drug and Linda Collins alcohol prevention, and fear reduction in cancer survivors Principal investigator Sequential, Multiple Assignment, Randomized Trial (SMART) Sequential, multiple assignment, randomized trial NEXT STEP (SMART) experimental designs provide high-quality data To extend methods to analyze data from a SMART to for constructing and optimizing adaptive interventions. handle a broader array of outcomes Adaptive interventions are treatments that are individually tailored to meet a patient’s changing needs. They can RECENT GRANT improve patient outcomes while decreasing cost and Reinforcement-based treatment for pregnant drug burden. abusers 2013 HIGHLIGHT National Institute on Drug Abuse: R01-DA014979 PIs: Margaret Chisolm, Hendrée Jones; Consultant: Approximately 20 SMARTs in the field funded by the Susan Murphy Susan Murphy National Institutes of Health (See pages 10-11 for more information.) Principal investigator

9 Featured Project: SMART Individualized Treatment, Grounded in Science

CHALLENGES IN TREATING assignment, randomized trial (SMART) BEHAVIOR was developed by Methodology Center Principal Investigator Susan Murphy and Imagine a clinician treating a woman who her collaborators to enable researchers to is pregnant and addicted to cocaine; the build high-quality adaptive interventions. immediate goal is to help the woman stay off drugs during pregnancy. Unfortunately, A SMART APPROACH within a few weeks, a drug screen shows TO INDIVIDUALIZING she has used cocaine. Should the clinician increase the number of therapy sessions TREATMENT or refer the woman for admission to The example above is based on the residential care? Conversely, if the woman National Institute on Drug Abuse (NIDA)- stays off drugs for an extended period, funded project, “Reinforcement based should the clinician continue providing treatment for pregnant drug abusers,” led the same treatment, or would it be better by Hendrée Jones and Margaret Chisolm to reduce therapy in order to reduce at Johns Hopkins University. In this trial, cost and the patient’s time commitment? researchers are using a SMART to build an Treatments often change when a patient’s adaptive intervention to treat pregnant drug circumstances change, but until recently, abusers. Adaptive interventions repeatedly clinicians lacked an empirical, data-based adjust the type or dosage of an intervention method to help them design behavioral based on individual characteristics, such interventions that adapt to patient as baseline level of addiction or response response. to initial treatment. Treatment is adapted to each individual in order to achieve the best Interventions that adapt to a patient’s possible outcome for the whole population. preference, previous response to treatment, In a SMART, treatment for each participant Susan Murphy or condition at the right times can improve is randomized at each stage; the data can Photo courtesy of the John D. and patient outcomes while decreasing cost then be used to develop decision rules that Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation and burden. The sequential, multiple will guide clinical practice on whether and

10 11 how to change the course of treatment professor in the Department of Psychiatry, SMARTs, train researchers to implement based on each individual’s needs. and research professor in the Institute SMARTs, and conduct original research to for Social Research at the University of advance SMART methodology. Perhaps Michigan. She has worked as a principal most importantly, Susan has fostered NIH is funding approximately investigator at The Methodology Center relationships with behavioral and health 20 SMARTs for issues including since its inception in 1995. researchers of the highest caliber so that cocaine use, depression, weight implementations of SMART have the loss, ADHD, and autism. Recently, her work on SMART drew greatest possible impact on public health. recognition from the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation; she was named CENTERED ON PUBLIC This is just one of approximately 20 a MacArthur Fellow in 2013. As she told HEALTH SMARTs currently funded by NIDA; the the MacArthur Foundation, “I really like National Institute of Mental Health; the math. I like how it works. I like the fact Susan’s work reflects The Methodology National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute; that it’s clean. I wanted very much to Center’s mission. Regardless of their the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse have some impact on real life—to be able discipline, researchers at The Methodology and Alcoholism; and other institutes. to help people in some way and to use Center use ideas from across the These studies are being used to design mathematics, and in particular statistics, to sciences, liberal arts, and engineering effective adaptive interventions to treat help people.” to develop solutions for our society’s critical health issues including cocaine most urgent health problems. SMART use, depression, problem drinking, obesity, relies on Q-learning, a data analysis ADHD, and autism. “I wanted very much to use method originating in computer science, mathematics to help people.” and Susan is working with clinicians Data from SMARTs are useful in informing - Susan Murphy and computer scientists again in her and improving the tactics and strategies newest line of research, just-in-time used by clinicians in practice. From autism adaptive interventions (JITAIs). JITAIs are Susan recognized that statistical innovation to alcoholism, scientists are using SMART individualized sequences of treatment that meant little if behavioral and social to improve the quality of people’s lives. At can be delivered anytime and anywhere science researchers, who have the clinical the same time, methodologists continue to via a smartphone; the treatments are expertise necessary to tackle major health develop and advance the science behind individualized based on -to- problems, did not adopt the method. SMART. As more researchers employ moment patient response to treatment, She has worked tirelessly to disseminate SMART, we move closer to improving the level of current risk, or geographic location. SMART so that, today, many researchers health of our nation. With her colleagues at The Methodology are using SMART to develop empirically Center and across the country, Susan grounded adaptive interventions. She has THE MIND BEHIND THE continues to create new ways to use mentored graduate students, postdocs, mathematics to help people. METHOD and junior researchers in the method, and now she and her colleagues, including Susan Murphy is both the architect and For more information on SMART, visit Daniel Almirall and Inbal Nahum-Shani, the driving force behind SMART. Susan methodology.psu.edu/ra/adap-inter. is H. E. Robbins Professor of Statistics, consult with researchers who are planning 11 ology Center advancing methods, improving health

LEAD RESEARCHER CONTACTS FUNDING Research at The Methodology Center is funded by General Inquiries Runze Li grants from the National Institutes of Health, primarily 204 E. Calder Way, Suite 400 Principal Investigator the National Institute on Drug Abuse and the National State College, PA 16801 Distinguished Professor, Cancer Institute. [email protected] Department of Statistics 814-865-3253 Professor, Department of Public Health Sciences The Methodology Center also receives support from the [email protected] College of Health and Human Development at Penn Linda Collins 814-863-9481 State. Center Director Professor, Department of Human Development and Donna Coffman Family Studies and Principal Investigator METHODOLOGY.PSU.EDU Department of Statistics Research Associate Professor, [email protected] College of Health and Human 814-865-3253 Development [email protected]

814-863-9724 This publication is available in alternative media on request. Stephanie Lanza The Pennsylvania State University is committed to the policy that all persons shall have equal access to Scientific Director programs, facilities, admission and employment without regard to personal characteristics not related to Research Associate Professor, Susan Murphy ability, performance, or qualifications as determined by University policy or by state or federal authorities. It is the policy of the University to maintain an academic and work environment free of discrimination, College of Health and Human Principal Investigator including harassment. The Pennsylvania State University prohibits discrimination and harassment Development H.E. Robbins Professor of against any person because of age, ancestry, color, disability or handicap, genetic information, national origin, race, religious creed, sex, sexual orientation, gender identity or veteran status and retaliation [email protected] Statistics due to the reporting of discrimination or harassment. Discrimination, harassment, or retaliation 814-865-7095 against faculty, staff or students will not be tolerated at The Pennsylvania State University. Direct all inquiries regarding this Nondiscrimination Policy to the Affirmative Action Director, The Pennsylvania [email protected] State University, 328 Boucke Building, University Park, PA 168022-2801: tel. 814-863-0471/TTY. 734-647-3684 U.Ed. HHD 14-020

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