3–6 SEPTEMBER 2012 TELFORD INTERNATIONAL CENTRE UK

DIRECTORY

RSS 2012

INTERNATIONAL CONFEREN CE RSS 2012

Contents

Chairman’s welcome ...... 3 Venue plan; exhibition plan and list of exhibitors ...... 4 General information ...... 5 Acknowledgements ...... 6 RSS International Conference 2013 ...... 6 Local restaurants and pubs ...... 7 Programme: Tuesday morning ...... 8–9 Programme: Tuesday afternoon ...... 10–11 Awards ceremony programme ...... 13-16 Posters: list of titles and presenters ...... 17-18 Programme: Wednesday morning ...... 20-21 Programme: Wednesday afternoon ...... 22-23 Programme: Thursday morning ...... 24-25 Programme: Thursday afternoon ...... 26-27

Supporters and sponsors We would like to thank the following organisations for their support of the conference:

Winton Capital for sponsoring the Awards ceremony and reception

Google for sponsoring the welcome reception

PSI and the UK Statistics Authority for their support of the statistical excellence awards

Select Statistics for sponsoring the internet access for delegates

Atass Sports for their support of the Young Statisticians Section’s activities at conference

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Chairman’s welcome

I’m pleased that so many fellow statisticians have been able to make their way to Telford for RSS 2012. We are looking forward to a stimulating and thought provoking conference in the heart of England. With the International Statistical Institute Congress held in Dublin last year, Council decided to skip a 2011 conference so that we could re-launch the annual events this year. We’ve reduced the length of the conference, and included the RSS annual awards ceremony as part of the programme. Mary Sweetland, Chairman, We are delighted to have Professor Hal Varian, chief economist at RSS 2012 Conference Google, join us to give the President’s Address on Wednesday. We look forward to hearing why he says that the sexy job in the next 10 years will be statistics.

Governments across the world have been grappling with alternative ways to measure a nation’s state of health other than GDP. OECD recently completed a report on ‘Measuring progress – how’s life’ and we look forward to Martine Durand, chief statistician at OECD opening the conference on Tuesday.

Meeting old friends and making new ones is an important part of conference. We’ve a welcome reception on Monday evening in the Holiday Inn, on the Conference Centre concourse, the RSS awards ceremony and reception on Tuesday evening and conference dinner at Ironbridge Museum on Wednesday. We’re very grateful to our sponsors and exhibitors for their support, in particular Winton Capital for their continued support of the awards ceremony and reception.

I hope you have an enjoyable time here in Telford. Throughout the conferences we’ll be looking for feedback and ideas and thoughts for future conference – please speak to Marian Scott, theme director for meetings and conferences or any of the RSS staff team. You’ll also find an ideas board beside the RSS stand in the exhibition area where you can post comments.

Mary Sweetland Conference chairman

3 RSS 2012: conference venue

Conference venue floor plan Holiday Inn & international hotels

E4 k s e d

n Main hall o i t a r t s i g e e r t

i Ludlow suite u s

t r

public concourse o p w e exhibition & catering N Ryton suite / E3 conference office lift E2 conference suites lift E1 reception 1 2 3 4 toilets Beckbury suite car park conference office registration desk E entrance

Exhibition hall and exhibitors

Exhibitors: 1 4 3 2 1 Wolfram (Tuesday and catering 1 Wednesday) 2 Winton Capital E 3 Royal Statistical E Society 4 Wiley Blackwell

5 5 Select Statistics e s

r 6 Office for National u o

e Statistics c e n f 6 f

o 7 Oxford University o c

c / Press w a e o l t Postgraduate

d 8 u 7

L Statistics Centre Lancaster (Tuesday and E Wednesday) catering 2 9 PSI (Statisticians in E the Pharmaceutical Industry) 89 10 11 10 CRC Press/Taylor & Francis 11 Atass Sports (Tuesday only) stands posters refreshments seating area E exits

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General information

Badges Refreshments Conference attendees are asked to wear their badges Lunch as well as tea/coffee on arrival in the mornings, and lanyards at all times while in the Conference at the mid-morning break and the mid-afternoon Centre. Catering staff at the International Centre may break is provided as part of your conference fee. All not be able to serve individuals who cannot be refreshments will be served in the exhibition hall identified as conference attendees. (Ludlow 1 & 2).

Lost badges will be replaced at the discretion of the Registration and information desk conference organisers. A replacement fee may be charged. The registration and information desk can be found on the main concourse outside the Exhibition Hall. Cloakroom A cloakroom is located on the ground floor near to Session locations the Beckbury Suite and will be open on Tuesday 4 and All sessions will be held in one of 7 rooms on the Thursday 6 September. Items may be left there at a ground floor of the International Centre. cost of £1. The cloakroom is operated by the Centre and not the RSS. Session timings The following timings for presentations will normally Internet access apply: The International Centre provides wi-fi access – l plenary talks – 30-45 minutes plus time for attendees will find a code in their conference packs. questions and discussion There will also be a small number of computer kiosks l invited talks – 20-30 minutes plus time for questions with free internet access provided in the exhibition and discussions and catering area. We are grateful to the financial l contributed talks –20 minutes including time for support of www.select-statistics.co.uk Select Statistics questions and discussion. to be able to provide these facilities. Shuttle buses Mobile phones Shuttle buses will be available at the start and close of We ask that you switch your mobile phones and other each day – please refer to the conference website or hand held devices to silent when you are in sessions. the information desk for more details on timings.

Online tools Social events The conference blog can be found at When you collect your badge from registration you www.rssconference.org.uk and you can also follow will be given a letter detailing what is covered by your proceedings on Twitter: RSSAnnualConf – please use registration category including which social events. the hashtag #RSS2012 Tickets will be supplied for the conference dinner on Wednesday which include details of the transport Photography arrangements for this event. The Society will have a photographer taking photographs in many sessions and at social events. The Society may Please note that at the reception on Monday evening a use photographs taken in publications and in future hot buffet meal will be served but at the Tuesday publicity. If you would prefer your photograph not to be evening reception only light canapés are being served. used in this way please contact the conference office. Speakers table Recording sessions For speakers wishing to submit their presentations Please note that the Society will also be recording a during the conference the speakers table will be number of key sessions during the conference which located on the main concourse outside the conference will be made available from the Society’s website in office (Ryton Suite). due course.

5 RSS 2012

Thanks and acknowledgements to those responsible for organising the conference

Members of the RSS Conferences and RSS Staff and stewards Events Programme Board Paul Gentry (conference manager), Sarah Barker Marian Scott (chair and theme director for (short course coordinator), Jack Beeby (web & Meetings & Conferences) multimedia manager), Mawreen Chapman (speaker University of Glasgow coordinator), Abdel Khairoun (session coordinator), Anna Mair (exhibition manager), Sarah Simpson Mary Sweetland (vice-chair and chairman of RSS (awards ceremony coordinator), Charlotte Stovell 2012 Conference) (registration manager), Toni Young (social events coordinator) and fellow staff at the Society. Also to June Bowman members of the RSS Young Statisticians Section Department of Transport Committee for their assistance with stewarding.

Paul Clarke Production Bristol University Rachel Hedley, Linda Mugridge and colleagues at Wild Strawberry Communications Neville Davies (www.wildstrawberry.uk.com) for publication design RSS Centre for Statistical Education and production

John Disney Paul Arrowsmith and colleagues at Mills Media Nottingham Trent University Group (www.millsmediagroup.com) for AV support and staging Sara Hughes ViiV Healthcare Alex Folkes ([email protected]) for photography Jamie Kirkham University of Liverpool Venues Hannah Williams, Diane Austin and colleagues at Daphne Kounali the Telford International Centre University of Bristol Wendy Ford and colleagues at the Holiday Inn Andy Lynch Telford for the welcome reception University of Cambridge Helen Foster and colleagues at Ironbridge Gorge Paul Northrop Museum and the team at Jenkinsons for the University College London conference dinner

Kate Richards Daniel Sweet, Laura Pobjoy and colleagues at First RSS Centre for Statistical Education Choice Conference and Events for the accommodation booking service Alison Walker

Important dates for your diaries: RSS 2013 International Conference 2-5 September 2013 Northumbria University Information available soon from www.rssconference.org.uk/

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Places to eat near Telford International Centre

On-site restaurants English pubs and Coalbrookdale Inn Indian restaurants The Olive Tree Restaurant restaurants 12 Wellington Road, Pondicherry Restaurant Holiday Inn Hotel, St Euston Way Brewers Fayre Coalbrookdale, TF8 7DX 57 Waterloo Street, Quentin Gate, Telford (one Train Station Telford Town (10 minute drive from the Ironbridge, TF8 7AA (10 minute walk from the Centre (five minute drive centre) 01952 433953 minute drive from the centre) contemporary from the centre) centre) 01952 433055 restaurant serving A La 01952 201075 Priors Lodge Carte, Table d’hote and bar Priorslee Telford, TF2 9SW Shifnal Balti snacks The Severn Gorge (five minute drive from the 20 Broadway,Shifnal, TF11 01952 527000 Telford Town Centre (two centre) 01952 299108 8AZ (five minute drive minute drive from the from the centre) Merlots Restaurant centre) 01952 290404 Wickets Inn 01952 460142 Grays Hotel, Telford town 240 Holyhead Road, centre (two minute drive The Old Orleton Inn Wellington, TF1 2EB (10 Peppers Balti Restaurant from the centre) spacious Wellington (10 minute minute drive from the 109a Trench Road, Trench and comfortable, menus drive from the centre) centre) 01952 246991 TF2 7DP (eight minute include: A La Carte, Table 01952 255011 drive from the centre) d’hote and a Carvery The Fox 01952 606555 01952 425000 Wetherspoons Thomas Pave Lane, Chetwynd Botfield Aston, Newport (10 Royal Balti American style Central Square, Telford minute drive from the 1 Charton Street TF1 1ES restaurants Shopping Centre, TF3 4BW centre) 01952 815940 (10 minute drive from the Frankie and Bennys (one minute walk from the centre) 01952 248417 Unit 5, Telford Forge Retail centre) 01952 292672 French restaurant Park, TF3 4AG (two minute Restaurant Severn Italian restaurants drive from the centre) Chez Maw 33 High Street, Ironbridge, Da-Vinci Italian Restaurant 01952 293902 The Valley Hotel, Ironbridge TF8 7AG (10 minute 26 High Street, Ironbridge, TF8 7DW (10 minute drive from the centre) TF8 7AD (12 minute drive Oscars American Bar drive from the centre) 01952 432233 from the centre) 01952 Odeon Cinema (two 01952 4322247 432250 minute drive from the Mediterranean centre) 01952 200577 The White Hart Restaurant Pizzeria Restaurants The Wharfage, Ironbridge The Red Pepper Pizza Hut Dragon Den TF8 7AW (10 minute drive Mediterranean Bistro Unit 12, Telford Bridge Telford Town Centre (one from the centre) 6 Stafford Street, Newport, Retail Park, TF3 4PB (two minute walk from the 01952 432901 TF10 7LT (10 minute drive minute drive from the centre) 01952 219921 from the centre) centre) 01952 293470 The Malt House 01952 813025 Ho Mei Village The Wharfage, Ironbridge Thai Restaurants Wellington (10 minute TF8 7NH (10 minute drive Siam Cottage drive from the centre) from the centre) 6a Tontine Hill, Ironbridge, 01952 222 767 01952 433712 TF8 7AL (10 minute drive from the centre) 01952 Minhs The Meadow Inn 433588 20 Bradford Street, Shifnal Buildwas Road, Ironbridge Plus many more! TF11 8AU (five minute TF8 7BJ (10 minute drive NB: The above list is for information purposes only and the drive from the centre) from the centre) International Centre is not recommending or endorsing any of 01952 463323 01952 433193 the above establishments

7 RSS 2012: Tuesday 4 September, morning programme

from 8.30am Registration/refreshments Exhibition (Ludlow 1 & 2)

9.20 –10.20am Newport 1 Beckbury 1 Introduction to Conference Bayesian sequential sampling for the economic evaluation of health technologies: opportunity or The RSS Young Statisticians Section will provide a dead end? quick introduction to the RSS Conference for Martin Forster (University of York) those new to the event, along with information about the YSS and how you can become Using Bayes to assess the plausibility of new involved. epidemiological findings Robert Matthews (Aston University)

Growth mixture modelling of child behaviour in a study of children receiving multidimensional treatment foster care in England Fatima Jichi (King’s College London, Institute of Psychiatry)

10.30am Ludlow 3 (Main Hall) Opening of conference and plenary session 1

How’s Life? Martine Durand, OECD, France

11.30am Tea/coffee break Exhibition (Ludlow 1 & 2)

12 noon Ludlow 3 (Main Hall) Newport 1 Inequality in the UK, its effects, and Statistical genetics what we think about it Organised by the RSS Research Section Understanding the effects of inequality in the UK: data from the spirit level Assessing tumour heterogeneity: inference using Kate Pickett (University of York) the matrix-variate normal distribution Simon Tavare (University of Cambridge) What the British social attitudes survey tells us about our attitudes to inequality Linear complexity surrogate family haplotype Alison Park estimation of whole chromosomes (Head of Society and Social Change, NatCen) Jonathan Marchini (University of Oxford)

Subset based assessment of high-throughput gene expression data quality in time course experiments Julia Brettschneider (University of Warwick)

1.20 –2.20pm Lunch Exhibition (Ludlow 1 & 2)

1.20pm Beckbury 4 Young Statisticians Section welcome reception

Come and meet fellow career-young statisticians (first 10 years in the profession) over lunch – and enjoy some free wine! All welcome, no need to reserve a place. Event kindly sponsored by Atass Sports.

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Beckbury 2 Counting the 7 Billion: the future of population and housing Censuses C Chandramouli (Office of the Registrar General & Census Commissioner, India) Kris Oswalt (DevInfo Initiative, USA) Sabrina Juran (United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), USA)

Measuring uncertainty in local authority population estimates for England and Wales Rebecca Newell (Office for National Statistics)

A conceptual framework for UK population and migration statistics Ann Blake (Office for National Statistics)

Newport 2 Beckbury 1 Beckbury 2 Beckbury 3 PSI Read Paper: Presenting at Regression modelling with Measurement error in Proposed best practice for conferences many correlated predictors: retrospective reports of statisticians in the reporting and Jenny Freeman a new approach to linear and unemployment publication of pharmaceutical (University of Sheffield) logistic regression with high Jose Pina industry-sponsored clinical trials dimensional data (University of Manchester) James Matcham (Amgen) Jay Magidson (Statistical This workshop will give Innovations Inc, USA) On the loss of accuracy of The presentation will be followed by a guidance on how to economic indicators proposer and seconded of a vote of improve your Semi-parametric methods for released too early thanks and Q&A. Attendees can conference regression under two-phase Jens Mehrhoff (Deutsche submit comments in advance to the presentation skills. sampling Bundesbank, Germany) chair. Chris Wild (University of Auckland, New Zealand) Heckman’s sample The paper can be downloaded from selection model and the Pharmaceutical Statistics website Fisherian testing for the 21st calibration estimation at http://onlinelibrary.wiley. century: getting the logic under nonresponse Thomas Laitila (Örebro com/journal/10.1002/(ISSN)1539-1612 straight and multiple testing Ian Hunt (London School of University, and Statistics Organised by Statisticians in the Economics) Sweden) Pharmaceutical Industry (PSI)

9 RSS 2012: Tuesday 4 September, afternoon programme

2.20pm Ludlow 3 (Main Hall) Newport 1 Newport 2 Fisher’s statistical Measuring what matters: Keeping the media legacy well-being in the UK honest in covering statistics Organised by the Fisher Organised by the UK Office for National Memorial Trust Statistics The panel will be moderated by David Walker, director of Randomisation 50 years An introductory talk will give an overview of the RSS getstats and former after Fisher national well-being programme and set out the journalist with the Guardian, Rosemary Bailey (QMW) dashboard of national well-being indicators. Times and BBC. Panel members are Penny Young, Inference: Fisher’s legacy Glenn Everett (ONS), will chair a director of NatCen, the and beyond 40-minute panel discussion on the issues independent social research David Cox surrounding the measurements of well-being and organisation, Aleks presentation of well-being data, followed by 20 Collingwood, head of statistics Multivariate analysis in the minutes of Q&A. for the Joseph Rowntree 21st century Foundation and Naomi David Hand The panel members will be Martine Durand Givens, statistics manager with (OECD), Charles Seaford (Nef) and Katherine GSK and promoter of the Trebeck (Oxfam) Science Media Centre’s Behind the Headlines project.

3.50pm Ludlow 3 (Main Hall) Newport 1 Newport 2 Andrew Dilnot PSI debate: The Bioinformatics Study Chair (UK Statistics Authority) This house believes that pharmaceutical Group presents drug development and regulation should become fully Bayesian Statistical challenges in high-throughput sequencing Speakers: with examples in clinical Scott Berry (Berry Consultants) resequencing Rob Hemmings Gerton Lunter (head of statistics, MHRA) (University of Oxford) Karen Lynn Price (principal research scientist, AdvAn Statistical challenges in flow Hub – Bayesian Expert Team, Eli Lilly and cytometry with application to Company) cellular signatures for graft- versus-host-disease The strengths and weaknesses of the Ulrike Naumann Bayesian approach in confirmatory trials (Kings College) will be discussed. Topics include: Statistical challenges in l Experiences with the Bayesian Genome Wide Association approach in confirmatory trials Studies with an application to l What are the advantages? the detection of l What are the disadvantages? gene-gene interactions in l What are the hurdles? Crohn ’s disease l What could the future hold? Heather Cordell (Newcastle University) The three discussants have different backgrounds. One is from regulatory, one from a pharmaceutical company, and one a consultant. This will bring a wide range of experience and lively discussions about using Bayesian Statistics in confirmatory trials.

5.10pm Tea/coffee break Exhibition (Ludlow 1 & 2)

5.45pm Awards ceremony Ludlow 3 (Main Hall)

7pm Awards and poster reception Ludlow 1 & 2

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Beckbury 1 Beckbury 2 Beckbury 3 Professional The impact of study size on meta-analyses: The economic benefits of adult Statisticians Forum examination of underpowered studies in apprenticeships: analysis of the Labour Force Cochrane reviews Survey Rebecca Turner (MRC Biostatistics Unit) Diana Tlupova (National Audit Office) Beating the odds: Successfully managing a rapidly-expanding Optimisation of the two-stage randomised Evaluating the impact of agricultural credit: a statistical team trial design with some participants matching approach Tim Paulden (Atass Sports) undecided about their treatment preference Sunil Mitra Kumar (University of East Anglia) Stephen D Walter From talking to action. A (McMaster University, Canada) The challenges of monitoring the illegal ivory personal view on making an trade to guide international decisions on impact Feasibility/pilot studies in the design, conduct elephant conservation Phil Woodward (Pfizer) and evaluation of complex interventions Fiona Underwood (University of Reading) Gillian Lancaster (Lancaster University) UK job creation and regional change: a A practical approach to sample size shift-share analysis calculation using simulation Paul Jones (Sheffield Hallam University) Richard Hooper (Queen Mary University of London)

Beckbury 2 Beckbury 4 Beckbury 3 Beckbury 1 Statistics at work in Using Dirichlet process What is Public Health Joint modelling of goals the Midlands: cars, partitioning models to assist Intelligence (PHI) ? Why is it and bookings in trains and flu linear model determination: critical to the best association football application to graphical functioning of the NHS in matches Organised by the RSS log-linear models 2012? Andrew Titman (Lancaster West Midlands Local Michail Papathomas (University of Margaret Eames University) Group St Andrews, School of (Imperial College) mathematics and Statistics) Using interactive eBooks Statistical applications in Statistical guidance on to teach and communicate automobile research How Nonzero Ties distort optimal strategies to prevent statistical ideas Paul Jennings Statistical Inference with Rank non-response in longitudinal Richard Parker (University of Warwick) Tests studies (University of Bristol) Nadine Chlass (Friedrich-Schiller- Ian Plewis Energy saving strategies University, Germany) (University of Manchester) Using the STAT-JR for the railway software package for Stuart Hillmansen Probabilistic index mixed Data.gov.uk: opening the statistical analysis (University of Birmingham) models for clustered data door on open data William Browne Fanghong Zhang (Ghent Andrew Epps (University of Bristol) NHS performance: How University, Belgium) (National Audit office) general is your General Explaining the significance Practice? Application of Zenga’s Combining knowledge to of p: presenting statistics Andrew Rouse (Heart of distribution to a panel survey on estimate the percentage of to non-statistical Birmingham teaching household incomes of 15 care workers paid under the audiences PCT) European member states national minimum wage in Andrew Oliver Alberto Arcagni (University of the UK: a Bayesian approach (National Audit Office) Milano, Italy) Shereen Hussein (King’s College London)

11 RSS 2012

Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine

Exciting opportunities for those interested in developing a career as a Medical Statistician

Liverpool School of Tropical is dedicated to working in partnership with International governments and stakeholders globally to deliver a range of research, teaching and technical assistance programmes. We aspire to be recognised as a centre of world class research that is acknowledged internationally for its role in promoting improved health for people in less developed countries in the tropics and sub-tropics.

Due to the recognised success and impact of our work we have new opportunities available within the School for talented graduates that would like to develop a career as a Medical Statistician in an environment that is experiencing an exciting period of growth. We can offer exceptional MSc Graduates the ability to work on unique and diverse range of projects including; epidemiological studies, clinical trials (RCT) and laboratory experimental work. In addition to this you will gain international experience by supporting the work undertaken in a number of different countries.

If you would like to the opportunity to develop your potential within a supportive high-quality research environment, please contact: Catherine Hignett-Jones, Human Resources [email protected]

Input into the RSS’s future strategy 1 eVENrUEr HIoRE Al T THsE RtOYrALe STAeTIStTICAL eSOCc IETY RSS is conducting a review of its future strategy. Help shape your Society’s direction. Come to the Strategy interactive discussion session and give your views on what the Society should be doing in the future – and perhaps what it should stop doing.

The discussion meeting will be on: Wednesday a light airy and versatile venue in the heart from 12 –1.20pm of the City in Beckbury 2 . l 020 7614 3910 l [email protected]

l www.rss.org.uk/venuehire

12 Tuesday 4 September 5.45pm Telford International Centre UK

Statistical Honours & Statistical Excellence Awards 2012 STATISTICAL HONOURS & AWARDS 2012

Guy medals West Medal

GUY MEDAL IN SILVER IAN MACLEAN OBE PROFESSOR DAVID FIRTH A Cambridge economist with a David Firth is professor and head of strong business background and an the Department of Statistics at the involvement as well as a keen University of Warwick. He previously interest in the role of statistics for worked at Lancaster, Imperial, UT decision making. Apart from two Austin, Southampton and most years at the Department of Applied recently Oxford (where he was Economics he has always worked in Professor of Social Statistics). His the private business sector for research spans from statistical theory multi national companies until 1986 and computational methods through when he set up he set up his own to applications in biology, sociology company to take over from and politics. He has been editor of JRSS-B, and chair of the Customs and Excise the RSS Research Section. In 1998 he was awarded the Guy dissemination of the monthly UK Medal in Bronze. In 2007 with Heather Turner he received trade statistics to manufacturers and traders worldwide, the ASA’s John M Chambers Statistical Software Award. He since extended to cover over 50 other countries. He has is a Fellow of the British Academy. been closely involved with official statistics since the early 1960s when he joined the Census of Production Advisory Committee and formed the Industrial Marketing Research Association which worked closely with the DTI in totally GUY MEDAL IN BRONZE revising business statistics and setting up of the BSO. He joined the Statistics Users Council in 1974 and then ran it RICHARD SAMWORTH as secretary and chairman from 1978 to 2004 organising Richard Samworth read mathematics at annual conferences covering a different aspect each year, St John’s College Cambridge, graduating education, health, the environment etc, and setting up 16 in 1999. He then studied Part III sector user groups with a combined membership of over mathematics before undertaking a PhD 2000 individuals. In 1978 he wrote his and the first paper on in the Statistical Laboratory in the need for statistics legislation and 2004 prepared a paper Cambridge, where he looked at for the Treasury with the same title! On the international problems related to the bootstrap and scene he is a past vice president of the International spent time as a visiting fellow at the Association for Official Statistics and was the UK Australian National University in representative on the EU Statistics Advisory Council for Canberra. eight years.

Richard became a research fellow at St John’s in 2003, a lecturer in the Statistical Laboratory in 2005, and subsequently in Reader in Statistics in 2010. He has also made extensive research visits in America, Australia and Europe. Nowadays, he studies mainly high-dimensional and nonparametric statistical problems, including variable selection, shape-constrained estimation and classification. He has also worked in various application areas, including oceanography and archaeology, and runs a fortnightly statistics clinic in Cambridge, where anyone in the university can receive free statistical advice.

Richard has served as an associate editor for JRSS-B since 2006, and recently began his second term on the RSS Research Section Committee, of which he was honorary secretary for two years. He also joined the RSS Council in January 2012, and was on the 2009 RSS conference programme committee. Richard was awarded the RSS Research Prize in 2008, a Leverhulme Research Fellowship in 2011 and an EPSRC Early Career Fellowship in 2012. STATISTICAL HONOURS & AWARDS 2012

Official Statistics Award Excellence in the Pharmaceutical Industry FUEL POVERTY STATISTICS TEAM – DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY AND CLIMATE HARRY SOUTHWORTH CHANGE Harry Southworth gained his BSc in The Hills Review Team, led by Professor John Hills at the Economics and Statistics from Leeds London School of Economics comprised two GSS University, his MSc in Probability statisticians from DECC, Damon Wingfield and Chris and Statistics from Sheffield McKee. They were responsible for leading all angles of the University, and his PhD in Statistics statistical work. They were also supported by Laura from Leeds. After a brief period Williams and Alison Colquhoun from the Fuel Poverty working for the Department of Statistics team in DECC, who had individual tasks within the Social Security, Harry joined Zeneca (now AstraZeneca) as a work programme. Damon has since left DECC, moving to statistician in 1998. Having worked in the central nervous work on Crime Statistics at the Home Office. system, cardiovascular and infection therapy areas for several years, Harry developed an interest in statistical Everybody contributing towards the analytical component approaches to drug safety data. Having pioneered the use of of the Hills Review enjoyed the challenge, demands interactive graphs for the review of clinical trial safety data, (including late nights!) and opportunity to stretch the he also developed methods for data mining adverse event imagination to provide innovative options and graphical data to identify potential associations with treatments. representations of the challenge facing Government in Harry’s current focus is on the use of extreme value addressing fuel poverty. modelling of clinical trial safety data.

The DECC statistics team is responsible for producing a number of National Statistics on all forms of energy and beyond, and provides crucial information for the policy teams combating climate change. Awards for statistical excellence in journalism

PRINT: WINNER ANALYTICAL SERVICES – MINISTRY OF JUSTICE CHRIS GILES, FINANCIAL The Ministry of Justice statistics team work on a range of TIMES issues covering court appearances, prison, probation, Chris Giles has been economics re-offending, civil and family justice. The team who editor of the Financial Times since undertook the work on the public disorder came from 2004. He writes on international across a range of teams in order to support the Ministry of and domestic economic issues and is also a columnist for Justice’s response to the disorder. This also meant others the newspaper. Previously, Chris was a leader writer on the from across the team had to take on additional work to FT and he has also worked at the BBC, Ofcom and the cover for those doing the disorder work. Institute for Fiscal Studies. He is a graduate of Cambridge and Birkbeck College, London.

PRINT: COMMENDATION CHRISTOPHER COOK, FINANCIAL TIMES Chris Cook is the education correspondent at the Financial Times . He joined the FT in 2008 as a Peter Martin Fellow, and worked for two years as a leader writer, where he won the Harold Wincott prize for young financial SPONSORS: journalists. Winton Capital – Awards ceremony and reception Before joining the newspaper, Chris worked for David Willetts MP, helping him write his book, ‘The Pinch’. He PSI and the UK Statistics studied modern history at Trinity College, Oxford, before Authority – statistical taking a masters degree in economic and social history at excellence awards the same institution. STATISTICAL HONOURS & AWARDS 2012

BROADCAST: WINNER BROADCAST: COMMENDATION BBC TV NEWS, FOR THE BROADCAST BBC RADIO 4’S MORE OR LESS, ‘POPULATION – THE WORLD AT 7 BILLION’ RICHARD KNIGHT, PRODUCER More or Less is the BBC Radio 4 programme which TONY DOLCE explains, explores – and sometimes debunks – numbers in the news, and in life. More or Less was created in 2001 by Tony joined the BBC in 1984 and Andrew Dilnot and Michael Blastland. Tim Harford has started work as a studio electrician, presented the programme since 2007. More or Less also progressing to sound-recordist and broadcasts a global edition year-round on the BBC World then eventually 19 years ago to Service. The producer is Richard Knight and the editor is lighting cameraman. Over the years Richard Vadon. he has worked for children’s programmes Newsround and Blue Peter and is currently working in News as a shoot/edit.

DAVID GORDON David is an award-winning senior creative designer who has worked with the BBC in a number of key areas over more than 20 years, including television News and Current Affairs, Science and Factual, plus a significant period developing BBC Online. An unusual combination of science and arts via a Masters in Physics and a BA in Three-Dimensional Design allows him to apply multidisciplinary thinking to a variety of creative problems and their solutions.

Now working in the area of Visual Journalism, David is ONLINE: WINNER currently helping the BBC produce innovative ways to SIMON ROGERS, engage audiences through multi-dimensional storytelling, THE GUARDIAN and with visualisation of information at its core. He is Simon Rogers is editor of the therefore very proud to be able to add this award from the Guardian’s Datablog and Royal Statistical Society to his pedigree. Datastore, an online data resource which publishes hundreds of raw datasets and encourages its users to ANNA-MARIE LEVER visualise and analyse them – and probably the world’s most Anna-Marie started at the BBC in popular data journalism website. He is also a news editor on 2007 as a runner on Horizon, she the Guardian , working with the graphics team to visualise moved into news doing hideously and interpret huge datasets. He was closely involved in the early shifts on Breakfast TV, before Guardian’s exercise to crowdsource 450,000 MP expenses advancing into the science and health records and the organisation's coverage of the Afghanistan team – a place she always aspired to and Iraq Wikileaks war logs. He was also a key part of the after achieving a biology degree and masters in science Reading the Riots team which investigated the causes of the communication. She works across online, radio and 2011 England disturbances. television: writing, producing, self-shooting and editing – as well as broadcasting. Previously he was the launch editor of the Guardian’s online news service and has edited the paper’s science section. He has edited two Guardian books: How Slow Can You Waterski FERGUS WALSH and The Hutton Inquiry and its impact. In 2010, Simon Fergus began working for the BBC in received a special commendation from the Royal Statistical 1984 and has reported on health, Society in its awards for statistical excellence in journalism. science and medicine for nearly His Factfile UK series of supplements won a silver at the 20 years. He has reported for the Malofiej 2011 infographics award and the Datablog won the BBC from around the world on topics Newspaper Awards prize for Best Use of New Media, 2011. such as stem cells, obesity, HIV/AIDS, malaria, TB, polio and Among other awards, in 2011, Simon was named Best UK swine flu. He appeared in a BBC drama with Julie Walters. Internet Journalist by the Oxford Internet Institute, Oxford He didn’t win any awards for his acting – but has won University and won the inaugural XCity award from City several for his journalism and is honoured to be able to add University. Simon is author of Facts are Sacred: the Power of this Royal Statistical Society one to his CV. Data. Conference directory

Awards and Poster reception Exhibition (Ludlow 1 & 2)

The following posters will be displayed in the exhibition hall during the conference: Subjective well-being: a beginner’s guide Community effects on Infant Mortality Rate in Rural India: Fola Ariyibi (Office for National Statistics (ONS)) a multilevel model Sada Nand Dwivedi (All India Institute of Medical Sciences Welsh index of multiple deprivation – an overview (AIIMS), India) Rebecca Gillard (Welsh Government) Bandwidth matrix selectors for multivariate kernel density A coupled hidden Markov model for disease interactions Tatiana Xifara (Lancaster University) estimation Ivana Horova (Masaryk University, Czech Republic) Investigation of the effects of life course events and Effectiveness of keep-in-touch-exercises on response decisions over the long term on the physical and mental evidence from the Wealth and Assets Survey (WAS) health of older people Martina Aumeyr (ONS) Riza Momin (Kingston University) What makes for a good missing value imputation? New Using administrative data to set plausibility ranges for algorithmic approaches in PCA and random forests-based population estimates Ann Blake (ONS) techniques Giancarlo Manzi (University of Milan, Italy) New approaches to response chasing in ONS Ann Langford (ONS) Comparative health-education output and economic growth in Nigeria Dental patients, public and the dental professionals: Timothy Olabisi Olatayo (Olabisi Onabanjo University, attitudes to regulation Ago-Iwoye, Ogun State, Nigeria) Guy Rubin (General Dental Council) Have the more restrictive abortion laws in the Republic of Global sensitivity analysis: local polynomial estimation of Ireland and Northern Ireland improved the health of Irish total sensitivity indices women since 1968? Have the more restrictive abortion laws Matieyendou Lamboni (Institute for Environment and in the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland improved Sustainability, Italy) the health of Irish women since 1968? Celia Chambers Longitudinal modelling for monitoring progressive chronic diseases in computerised GP records: a case study in Improving the adequacy of multilevel models in the face of Chronic Kidney Disease(CKD) outliers and error-prone random coefficient predictors Rosie O’Neil (Kingston University) Michael Imande (Benue State University, Makurdi, Nigeria) Measuring the number of international visits to UK during Imprecision and Robustness in Bayesian Experimental London 2012: how the International Passenger Survey is Design adapting its design Noorazrin Abdul Rajak (Newcastle University) Roger Smith (ONS) How many subjects do I need in a pilot RCT to estimate Estimating density and hazard functions through kernel and the variance of the outcome with a reasonable degree of wavelet smoothers precision? Paraskevi Peristera (Stockholm University, Sweden) Neil Shephard (University of Sheffield) Investigate the pattern of Chlamydia incidence in England Iterative bandwidth selector – extension to kernel using space-time models regression Man Ying Edith Cheng (Southampton University) Jan Kolacek (Masaryk University, Czech Republic) Statistical analysis of patients’ waiting time in the hospital Sensitivity of simultaneous equation techniques for O M Olayiwola (Statistics Department, Federal University of application in forest growth modelling Agriculture, Nigeria) Oluwafemi Oyamakin (Forestry Research Institute of Nigeria) Cross-national measurement equivalence in latent variable Dam models for expected amount of overflow allowing any modelling: sensitivity and model selection number of emptiness Jouni Kuha (London School of Economics) M Venkateswaran (Sri Venkateswara University, India) Modelling fatigue-life failure distribution Calibration estimation under non-response and missing Kishore Das (Gauhati University, India) auxiliary information Lisha Wang (Örebro University, Sweden) Bootstrapping method to confirm presence or absence of outlier subject in a standard bioequivalence study Myopic decision rules using the regret-regression method Vinayak Deshpande (Sankhya Analytical Research Pvt Ltd, with application to Warfarin data India) Nur Anisah Mohamed (Newcastle University)

17 RSS 2012: P oster exhibition

Medical decision support systems by statistical scale Observations on the design of sensory profiling trials for a measures through stochastic modelling back-cross population of potato varieties B N Naveen Kumar (Sri Venkateswara University, India) Ian Nevison (Biomathematics and Statistics Scotland) How big should a pilot trial be? A case for binary outcomes A treatment of ties in rank correlation in randomised controlled trials Ilaria Lucrezia Amerise (University of Calabria, Italy) Munyaradzi Dimairo (ScHARR, University of Sheffield) Statistical analysis of pre-menopausal and menopausal age Pseudo-Bayesian optimum designs for nonlinear models of women with dietary intake and BMI as predicting using standard functions in R factors Ronaldo Silva (UNESP Univ Estadual Paulista, Brazil) OlaOluwa Yaya (University of Ibadan, Nigeria) Statistical analysis of the economic performance of the Construction and validation of the Physiological Emotions directorate of water development. Case study of Wakiso Friendship Scale (PhEFS) through a multidisciplinary and Kiwunya sub stations approach Resty Nansubuga (Institute of Statistics and applied Sandra De Francisci (IULM University, Italy) Economics, Makerere University, Uganda) Robustifying the Least Squares estimate of parameters of NIH Stroke Scale as a common predictor of short term variance model function in nonlinear regression with functional status, length of hospital stay and survival – cohort heteroscedastic variance study within the South London Stroke Register (SLSR) Hossein Riazoshams (Statistics Department, Stokholm Shah-Jalal Sarker (Division of Health and Social Care university, Sweden) Research, King’s College London) A typical quasi-semi-Latin square design: combinatorial Adaptive clinical trials – a review of statistical methodology structures and application and current status Polycarp Chigbu (University of Nigeria, Nsukka) Nicky Wright (BioSigma Ltd, UK) Logistic regression estimator for Warner’s randomized Optimal designs for the estimation of five variance response model components in a linear random effect model Leonardo Truillo (National University of Colombia) Oluwole Nuga (Bells University Of Technology, Nigeria) Jittered phase diagrams for seasonal patterns in time Statistical perspective on measuring the series signal-to-noise ratio for history event data in neural systems Robert M Kunst (Institute for Advanced Studies / University Gabriela Czanner (University of Liverpool) of Vienna, Austria) Modelling and estimation of a joint longitudinal model for Determination of broiler chickens’ maximum weight with multiple repeated measures and multiple recurrent events respect to age and feeding rate processes O M Olayiwola (Statistics Department, Federal University of Samuel Manda (South African Medical Research Council, Agriculture, Nigeria) University of Kwazulu-Natal, South Africa) What's going on with the road accident fatal trend? Bayesian non-parametric modelling in measurement error Louise Lloyd (Transport Research Laboratory, UK) using a polya tree distribution On the innovation of the family of multivariate higher-order Reem Al-Jarallah (Kuwait University) hybrid polynomial kernels Inference for the Fractional Heston model using the Benson Ade Afere (Adekunle Ajasin University, Nigeria) auxiliary particle filter Diffusion of innovations in dynamic networks Muhannad Al-Saadony (University of Plymouth) Charlotte Greenan (University of Oxford) Statistical properties of the convoluted beta-Weibull The prevalence rate of work related stress, anxiety and distribution depression in Great Britain 2001/02-2010/11 Alfred Akinsete (Marshall University, USA) Paul Buckley (Health and Safety Executive) Evaluation of removable statistical interaction for binary traits The prevalence rate of work related musculoskeletal Jaya Satagopan (Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, disorders in Great Britain 2001/02-2010/11 USA) Paul Buckley (Health and Safety Executive) The analysis of ultra-high frequency financial data via particle Monitoring of an industrial process using adaptive filters multi-block partial least squares Golnaz Shahtahmassebi (Plymouth University) Bothinah Altaf (Newcastle University) Two forms of attrition in a longitudinal health study involving ageing participants, and their predictors: analysis of Whitehall II Robert Grant (Kingston University / St George’s, University of Details correct at time of going to print London)

18 Lancaster Postgraduate Statistics Centre Short Courses 2012-2013

Statistics for Scientists, Social Scientists and Health Professionals Continuing Professional Introductory short courses Statistical Methods 16-17 October 2012 Development Courses Introduction to Statistics (SPSS I) 14-15 November 2012 Secondary Data Analysis 29 November 2012 in Statistics Questionnaire Design, Reliability and Validity 3 December 2012 Lancaster Postgraduate Statistics Centre is Sampling Design 4 December 2012 the only HEFCE funded Centre of Excellence Atlas.ti 15 February 2013 Statistical Modelling (SPSS II) 7-8 March 2013 for Teaching and Learning that uniquely Going further with statistics specialises in postgraduate statistics. Statistical Inference 23-24 October 2012 Courses are taught by members of the Using R software 1-2 November 2012 Statistics Group within the Department of Generalised Linear Models 7-9 November 2012 Mathematics and Statistics. Duration (Survival) Analysis 23-24 January 2013 Data Mining Techniques 21-22 February 2013 What do we offer? Using STATA 28 February - 1 March 2013 We offer a wide range of statistics courses and Bayesian Methods 4-5 March 2013 a variety of ways to learn. The following courses Quantifying and Evaluating Forensic Evidence 18-19 March 2013 Structural Equation Modelling using AMOS 21-22 March 2013 run regularly each year. Please check our Multi-Level Models 24-25 April 2013 website for the most up-to-date information. Methods for Missing Data 1-2 May 2013 Quantitative Criminology 15-16 May 2013 For more information including fees or to MSc/PgDip/PgCert in Quantitative Methods: Study a selection of courses full-time book on a short course, please visit our or part-time and get a postgraduate qualification (eg. 6 courses for a PgCert). Optional website www.maths.lancs.ac.uk/psc or MSc pathways include scientific research methods, social and crime statistics, statistical email us at [email protected]. methods for health research or teaching statistics. Specialist Topics in Medical and Pharmaceutical Research Pharmacological Modelling 11-14 February 2013 Survival and Event History Analysis 25-28 February 2013 Adaptive and Bayesian Methods in Clinical Research 11-14 March 2013 Genomics: Technologies and Data Analyses 15 March 2013 (registration deadline is 31 January 2013 for this workshop) Designing Early Phase Clinical Trials 10-11 June 2013 MSc in Statistics: Choose optional pathways in medical, pharmaceutical or environmental statistics. Study advanced techniques. For those with a background in mathematics or statistics. RSS 2012: Wednesday 5 September, morning programme

from 8.30am Registration/refreshments Exhibition (Ludlow 1 & 2)

9–10am Ludlow 3 (Main Hall) Newport 1 Have the cutbacks in statistical budgets undermined the Getting your point statistical base? across: dos and don’ts and guidance The National Statistician’s assessment of the effect of the cuts across the This session offers practical whole of the Government Statistical Service advice on putting together Jil Matheson (National Statistician) stories, releases, presentations and public Maximising value from statistical budgets offerings around statistical Richard Alldritt (UK Statistics Authority) themes – the products of research or findings. The radical statistics view of the effect of the cuts on government statistics and their use Ludi Simpson (Radical Statistics)

Ludlow 3 (Main Hall) Newport 1 Newport 2 10.10 –11.30am Methodology for longitudinal studies Who, what and why? Statistical aspects Organised by the Social Statistics Section Understanding user of networks needs A longitudinal analysis of childhood cognitive ability Null models for and family background on adult occupational Organised by the Statistics network data positions User Forum Patrick Wolfe (University R Connelly (University of Stirling) College London) The challenge of Lifelong socio economic position and biomarkers of understanding the use of Models and estimators later life health: testing the relative contribution of official statistics for longitudinal network competing hypotheses Richard Alldritt data George Ploubidis (London School of Hygiene & (UK Statistics Authority) Tom Snijders (University Tropical Medicine) of Oxford and Meeting user needs University of Groningen, Adjusting for selection bias in longitudinal analyses of James Tucker (the Statistics The Netherlands) the relationship between employment transitions and User Forum and mental health using simultaneous equations modelling StatsUserNet) Role analysis in Fiona Steele (University of Bristol) networks using a The experience of the mixture of exponential Adjusting for non-ignorable drop-out in a longitudinal RPI/CPI User Group random graph models analysis of residential mobility Tony Cox Brendan Murphy (UCD, Paul Clarke (University of Bristol) Ireland)

11.30am Tea/coffee break Exhibition (Ludlow 1 & 2)

12 noon –1.20pm Ludlow 3 (Main Hall) Newport 1 Newport 2 Making the most of Statistical nous New developments in clinical trials the 2011 Census outputs for England Statistics and computing are An overview of the MRC HTMR Network and Wales now indelibly linked, but we Paula Williamson (University of Liverpool) Organised by the Office still need the human brain for National Statistics to check over outputs with The TAILoR study – an example of multi- (ONS) the question – does this arm multi-stage clinical trials make sense? Thomas Jaki (Lancaster University) 2011 Census statistical Jenny Church releases Clinical trial monitoring: towards Emma White (ONS) This session, aimed at career establishing best practice? young statisticians, will Catrin Tudur Smith (University of Liverpool) 2011 Census – quality provide examples of assuring the results publications where statistical A systematic approach to using animal data Garnett Compton (ONS) nous was not applied, and to inform clinical trial design some techniques to help you Malcolm Macleod (University of Edinburgh) Improving access to Office develop the skill of looking at for National Statistics an output and thinking – Core outcome measures in effectiveness (ONS) data ‘There’s something wrong trial (COMET Initiative) Francesca Kay (ONS) here.’ Mike Clarke (Queen’s University Belfast)

1.20-2.30pm Lunch Exhibition (Ludlow 1 & 2)

20 Conference directory

Beckbury 2 Beckbury 3 A review of methods for specifying the target difference in Modelling credit risk of small and medium-sized randomised controlled trials (DELTA review) businesses: evidence from the UK Jonathan Cook (University of Aberdeen) Jake Ansell (The University of Edinburgh)

Sensitivity analysis for departures from the missing at random Changes to the compilation of UK national accounts and assumption in randomised trials with missing outcomes balance of payments statistics Ian White (MRC Biostatistics Unit) Robert Dunn (Office for National Statistics)

Estimators for the effect of received treatment in a randomised trial with all-or-none compliance under a Poisson model Adam Brentnall (Queen Mary University of London)

Beckbury 1 Beckbury 2 Beckbury 3 Beckbury 4 Creating interactive web YSM 2012 prize Understanding probability Education for all: household and graphs with R: overview winners matching priors community level determinants of and googleVis tutorial Analysis of repeat event Alastair Young primary and secondary school outcome data in clinical (Imperial College London) attendance among children of Markus Gesmann trials: examples in heart official school going age in Sierra failure Financial forecasting using the Leone The googleVis package provides an Jennifer Rogers (London generalised Kolmogorov- Mamusu Kamanda interface between R and the School of Hygiene & Feller equation (University of Southampton) Google Visualisation API to create Tropical Medicine) Jonathan Blackledge (Dublin interactive charts which can be Institute of Technology, Ireland) Street lighting and safety embedded into web pages. The Modelling interactions Paul Marchant best known of these charts is in high-dimensional data A Bayesian one-dimensional (Leeds Metropolitan University) probably the Motion Chart, with Backtracking random field model for popularised by Hans Rosling in his Rajen Shah (University ChIP-seq data. Localised spatial smoothing in TED talks. This talk will give an of Cambridge) Veronica Vinciotti (Brunel Bayesian disease mapping overview of the package and University) Duncan Lee (University of Glasgow) explain in detail how the functions Regional Variation in can be applied to generate the Seasonal Behaviour Log-concavity and its The impact on post-imputation interactive charts for web pages of Indoor Radon application to time series parameter estimation of limiting and how it can be used as part of Concentrations models donor usage in hot deck methods a reproducible research workflow. Orlaith Burke Yining Chen Dieter William Joenssen (Ilmenau (University of Oxford) (University of Cambridge) University of Technology, Germany)

Beckbury 1 Beckbury 2 Beckbury 3 Beckbury 4 Stochastic volatility RSS long-term Improving penalised regression models Dynamic Bayesian smooth transition jumps strategy for phenology by using thermal time autoregressive (DBSTAR) models consultation Adrian Roberts (Biomathematics and Alexandre Santos (The Open Organised by the RSS statistics Scotland) University) Applied Probability Input into the RSS’s Section future strategy A framework for adapting survey A short guide and a forest plot RSS is conducting a design through time for design-based command (ipdforest) for one-stage Asymptotic results and review of its future wildlife population assessment meta-analysis statistical procedures strategy. Help shape Fiona Underwood (University of Evangelos Kontopantelis (University of for time-changed Lévy your Society’s direction. Reading) Manchester) processes sampled at Come to the Strategy hitting times interactive discussion Data fusion modelling for Power analysis for generalised linear Peter Tankov (Université session and give your archaeological geophysics mixed models using simulations Paris-Diderot, France) views on what the Robert Aykroyd (University of Leeds) Paul Johnson (Robertson Centre for Society should be doing Biostatistics, University of Glasgow) Statistical aspects of in the future – and Spatio-temporal modelling of wildfires modelling and perhaps what it should in Catalonia, through log-Gaussian The evaluation of evidence in prediction for financial stop doing. Cox mixed models forensic science for discrete data time series Chair: Andy Garrett Marc Saez (University of Girona, Spain, Colin Aitken (University of Edinburgh) Nick Bingham (Imperial (chair, RSS long-term and CIBER of Epidemiology and Public College) strategy review) Health (CIBERESP))

21 RSS 2012: Wednesday 4 September, afternoon programme

1.40pm Beckbury 2 Funding opportunities workshop Michael Ball (BBSRC) Mark Pitman (MRC) Rachel Tyrell (ESRC) Vivienne Blackstone (EPSRC)

Chair: Kevin McConway (vice president for Academic Affairs, RSS)

2.30 –4.10pm Ludlow 3 (Main Hall) Newport 1 Newport 2 Retrospective Read Paper Talking to the public Big Data challenges about statistics Organised by the RSS Research Health records are rich Section Organised by the RSS sources of medical getstats campaign and the information, but there are Further results on tests of RSS Young Statisticians challenges in drawing casual separate families of hypotheses, Section inference JRSS-B 24, 406-424, 1962 James Carpenter (LSHTM) Sir David Cox An interactive workshop (University of Oxford) looking at what the public Studying crop disease and need to know about soil: evolutionary analyses of statistics, what the public agricultural genomic and don’t know and what we meta-genomic data need to tell them. Elisa Loza (Rothamsted Research)

Inferring seabird distribution and behaviour using data from electronic tags Adam Butler (Biomathematics and Statistics Scotland)

4.10pm Tea/coffee break Exhibition (Ludlow 1 & 2)

4.40 –5.40pm Ludlow 3 (Main Hall) Plenary 2 Campion (president’s invited) lecture: Statistics at Google Hal Varian (chief economist, Google)

7pm Conference dinner Ironbridge museum

22 Conference directory

Beckbury 2 Beckbury 4 Beckbury 3 Beckbury 4 Understanding ageing in the 21st Professional Ordered categorical Statistical modelling of century matters predictors: with an oceanographic time series application in Adam M Sykulski Cross-national differences in older Organised by the pharmacogenetics (University College adults physical functioning: results from RSS Professional Stephen Senn (CRP Santé, London) HRS, ELSA and SHARE studies of ageing Affairs Committee Luxembourg) Paola Zaninotto Nonparametric (University College London) The message of Measuring the impact of monitoring of high accreditation heterogeneity in frequency data streams The impact of reporting bias on the Ron Wasserstein multivariate meta-analyses Gordon Ross measurement of socioeconomic health (ASA) Dan Jackson (MRC (University of Bristol) inequalities in the US Biostatistics Unit, UK) Paul Noroski (University At Albany, State The role of the Locating and quantifying University of New York) professional bodies Modelling the diluting gas emission rates using in building the effect of social mobility remotely obtained The measurement of social networks profession on health inequality concentration data and their correlates in the older Ali Orr Heather Turner (University David Randell (Shell population: Lessons from SHARE and (Science Council) of Warwick and freelance Projects & Technology, UK, NSHAP statistical/R consultant) 2MIT Laboratory for Howard Litwin (Hebrew University, The value of Information and Decision Israel) continuing Modelling multiple binary Systems, USA) professional events with applications Childhood conditions, education and development to concurrences of Peaks over threshold main job Amanda Rosewarne human papillomavirus modelling for Irish flow Christelle Garrouste (European (Warwick Business infections data Commission – Joint Research Centre, School) Zihua Yang (Wolfson Sangaralingam Ahilan Italy) Institute, Queen Mary (University College Dublin) University of London) Elderly consumers and cognitive age dimensions: the influence of Empirical assessment of hedonic/utilitarian contextual factors on the validity of perceived youthfulness uncontrolled comparisons Gianluigi Guido, Cesare Amatulli, of the accuracy of Alessandro M Peluso, M Irene Prete diagnostic tests (University of Salento, Italy) Yemisi Takwoingi (University of Birmingham)

23 RSS 2012: Thursday 6 September, morning programme

8.30am Registration/refreshments Exhibition (Ludlow 1 & 2)

9.20 –10.40am Ludlow 3 (Main Hall) Newport 1 Newport 2 Statistics and the Statistics and energy RSS graduate Olympics (1) statistician mentoring Statistics and energy – challenges scheme Statistics and the Olympics (1) and opportunities Ludlow 3 (Main Hall) Idris Eckley (Lancaster University) This session aims to bring together mentors and Ultimate 100-m world record Managing uncertainty in energy mentees from the scheme through extreme-value theory networks to share experiences and John Einmahl (Tilburg University, Stan Zachary (Heriot-Watt ideas. Anyone interested in the Netherlands) University) joining the scheme, either as a mentor or mentee are Determinants of success at the Forecasting nonstationary energy also very welcome to Olympics Games time series attend. More information David Forrest (University of Marina Knight (University of Bristol) can be found at Salford) www.rss.org.uk/mentoring

10.40am Tea/coffee break Exhibition (Ludlow 1 & 2)

11.10am –12.40pm Ludlow 3 (Main Hall) Newport 1 Newport 2 Statistics and the Recent advances in Spatio-temporal Olympics (2) statistical computing: an environmental Participation and introduction to GPU epidemiology performance at the London computation 2012 Olympics Detection of spatio-temporal Gerard Kuper (University of Harnessing many-core disease clusters Groningen, the Netherlands) architectures using population- Tom Fanshawe (Lancaster based Monte Carlo methods University) Olympic Games: export Anthony Lee (University of effect, signal effect? Warwick) A space-time model for Wolfgang Maennig (University investigating the effect of of Hamburg, Germany) Accelerating integrative temperature on mortality: an modelling using GP-GPU England and Wales case study computing Marta Blangiardo (Imperial Paul Kirk (University of Warwick) College)

Approximate Bayesian Ecological bias in studies of computation with GPUs the short-term effects of air Michael Stumpf (Imperial College pollution on health London) Gavin Shaddick (University of Bath) Experiences from the world of statistical parallel computing – Organised by the RSS large scale Bayesian factor Environmental Statistics analysis Section Simon Wilson (discussant) (Trinity College Dublin)

12.40pm Lunch Exhibition (Ludlow 1 & 2)

24 Conference directory

Beckbury 1 Beckbury 2 Beckbury 3 Statistical analysis of copy number alterations in Beyond 2011 – the future of Volatility graphics for financial cancer samples using low-coverage next-generation population statistics time series sequence data Ann Blake (Office for National Statistics Tony Lawrance (University of Arief Gusnanto (University of Leeds) (ONS)) Warwick)

Sparse Gaussian copula graphical model for a Matching of administrative data to Implementing bootstrap genomic breast cancer network validate the 2011 Census in England variance estimation on the Fentaw Abegaz (University of Groningen, the and Wales ONS Business Register and Netherlands) Louisa Blackwell (ONS) Employment Survey Matthew Greenaway (ONS) Detection of disease change from a biological marker: Using internet search data in the using CA125 in ovarian cancer as an example production of official statistics Item-by-item sampling for Wendi Qian (University of Cambridge) Daniel Ayoubkhani (ONS) promotional purposes Neil Spencer (University of Differential heritability and environmentality of Driving insight through developing web Hertfordshire) intelligence test subscales across socioeconomic analytics in the not-for-profit sector status Paul Askew (Chartered Society of Rebecca Pillinger (University of Bristol) Physiotherapy)

Beckbury 1 Beckbury 2 Beckbury 3 Beckbury 4 RSC 2011 and YSM 2011 Revalidation for Communication and Longitudinal quality of life prize winners Chartered Statisticians interpretation of in adults with cystic statistical evidence in fibrosis Describing childhood diet Organised by RSS Professional the administration of Margaret Hurley with cluster analysis Affairs Committee (PAC) criminal justice (University of Central Andrew Smith Colin Aitken Lancashire) (University of Bristol) This session will involve an initial (University of presentation intended to clarify Edinburgh) Control charts in Modelling dependence the planned process for medicine: An application between extreme values revalidation, including responses Statistical inference in to management of Jenny Wadsworth (EPFL, to FAQs already received. The the courtroom: patients with bipolar Switzerland, and Lancaster presentation will also cover experts getting it disorder University) what Chartered Statisticians wrong? Maria Vazquez-Montes need to be doing now in order Ian Hunt (London (University of Oxford) Statistical disclosure control to prepare for their first School of Economics) for communal establishments revalidation. Estimation of spatial in the UK 2011 Census The evaluation of spillover effects in cluster Joseph Frend However, the main part of the evidence relating to randomised trials (Office for National Statistics) session will be a Q&A and traces of drugs on Karim Anaya-Izquierdo discussion session with a panel banknotes (London School of of PAC members responding to Amy Wilson Hygiene & Tropical questions raised by the (University of Medicine) audience. Edinburgh) Estimating the treatment Presenter: Trevor Lewis (chair of effect in a randomised PAC) trial with switching using a conditional Poisson model Panel will include: Zihua Yang (Wolfson Trevor Lewis Institute, Queen Mary Roeland Beerten (RSS director University of London) of education and professional affairs)

25 RSS 2012: Thursday 4 September, afternoon programme

1.30pm –2.50pm Ludlow 3 (Main Hall) Newport 1 Newport 2 Significance : Alan Turing Experimental design challenges in Expert advise and Enigma industry James Grime (University of Cambridge’s Millennium Organised by the RSS Business and The English libel laws and Mathematics Project) Industrial Section other obstacles to honesty in medical research A general class of models for data from Peter Wilmshurst mixture experiments (Consultant Cardiologist, Alexander Donev, Liam Brown (University UK) of Manchester)

Designing real-life industrial experiments: design criteria and challenges Peter Goos (Universiteit Antwerpen)

Improved split-plot and multi-stratum designs Steven Gilmour (University of Southampton)

3pm –4.15pm Ludlow 3 (Main Hall) Plenary 3: Statistics of risk

Environmental extremes and risk Anthony Davison (EPFL)

Risk in business, and the business of risk David Hand (Imperial College)

4.15pm Refreshments Exhibition (Ludlow 1 & 2)

26 Conference directory

Beckbury 1 Beckbury 2 Beckbury 3 Partitioning uncertainty in climate Injectors’ initiation of others to injecting Bayesian estimation of animal predictions using data from drug use in Scotland 2008–09: movements in heterogeneous undesigned climate experiments who initiates, how often, shared environment using data augmentation Paul Northrop responsibility, and novice Svetlana Tishkovskaya (University of (University College London) replacement-rate Central Lancashire) Simon White (MRC Biostatistics Unit, UK) Combining probabilistic Estimating the oceanic aircraft temperature forecasts from global Examining the performance of a separation loss distribution under climate models and time series predictive test using multiple studies: periodic reporting models beyond meta-analysis Jacqueline Civil (NATS, UK) Siddharth Arora (University of Richard Riley (University of Birmingham) Oxford) Adult body mass index trends are Combining pooled and individual test levelling off in England: exploration of Multidecadal oscillations in data to estimate herd-level prevalence underlying patterns using a multivariate marine ecological Geoff Jones (Massey University, New two-component model datasets Zealand) Matthew Sperrin (Lancaster Victoria Harris (University College University) London) Analysis of proportional admissions/mortality: proposed odds Using the UKCP09 climate ratio methods to overcome flaws in projections to assess uncertainty standard methodologies and variation in projected impacts Paul Fryers (East Midlands Public Health of climate change on crop yields Observatory) Jacqueline Potts (Biomathematics and Statistics Scotland)

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