CAMINHOS DE GEOGRAFIA - revista on line www.ig.ufu.br/caminhos_de_geografia.html Instituto de geografia ufu ISSN 1678-6343 programa de pós-graduação em geografia

POPULATION GROWTH AND CHANGING LAND-USE PATTERN IN METROPOLITAN REGION OF

Arun Kumar Acharya Ph.D Scholar Instituto de Investigaciónes Antropológicas - UNAM, México

Parveen Nangia Ph.D Reader, Department of Migration and Urban Studies International Institute for Population Sciences (IIPS), India

ABSTRACT The rapid population growth and the process of urbanization have resulted into changing land-uses pattern. Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR) is one of the fastest growing region of India. Its population increased from 7.7 million in 1971 to 18.3 million in 2001 and is projected to be increased 22.4 million in 2011. With the saturation of land in the city followed by suburbs, other parts of the metropolitan region plows now experiencing the fast growth. Due to growing population pressure the total built-up and industrial area in Mumbai Metropolitan Region has increased from 4.9 percent in 1971 to 12 percent in 1991 and is projected to constitute 31 percent of the total area in 2011. On the other hand, area under forest cover has declined from 30 percent in 1971 to 27 percent in 1991 and is expected to it declines further to 22 percent by 2011. Using various demographic and spatial analysis techniques, this paper attempts to shows the effect of population growth on land-uses and subsequently on the regional environment. It also evaluates critically the development plan of the region. The dates it goes the study have obtained from the Mumbai Metropolitan Region Development Authority and Census of India.

Keywords: Population growth, Population density, Lan-use change, Mumbai, India.

CRESCIMENTO POPULACIONAL E MUDANÇAS NO PADRÃO DO USO DO SOLO NA REGIÃO METROPOLITANA DE MUMBAI NA INDIA1

RESUMO O rápido crescimento da população e o processo de urbanização resultaram em mudanças do padrão de uso da terra. A Região Metropolitana de Mumbai (MMR) é um das regiões de crescimento mais rápido da Índia. Sua população aumentou de 7,7 milhões em 1971 para 18,3 milhões em 2001 e é projetado para o ano 2011 uma população de 22,4 milhões de habitantes. Com a total ocupação da cidade seguida por subúrbios, outras partes da região metropolitana estão experimentando um crescimento rápido agora. Devido a pressão da crescente população, a área urbana total da Região Metropolitana de Mumbai aumentou de 4,9 por cento em 1971 para 12 por cento em 1991, com uma projeção para chegar a 31 por cento da área total em 2011. Por outro lado,a área sob cobertura de floresta foi reduzida de 30 por cento em 1971 para 27 por cento em 1991 e espera-se uma redução

1 Recebido em: 32809/2003 Aceito para publicação em: 17/12/2003

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para 22 por cento em 2011. Usando várias técnicas de análise demográficas e de espaço este artigo tenta apresentar os efeitos do crescimento da população no uso da terra e conseqüentemente no ambiente regional. Também avalia criticamente o plano de desenvolvimento da região. Os dados para o estudo foram obtidos das Autoridades de Desenvolvimento de Região Metropolitana de Mumbai e do Censo da Índia.

Palavras chaves: crescimento de População, densidade de População, uso da terra, Mumbai, Índia.

The rapid growth of population and the aesthetic quality. The conversion of process of urbanization have resulted in prime agricultural land to urban use an increasing demand for land in urban may increase costs for locating, storing settlements. A city grows not only by and purchasing food (Bernstein: 1994). population but also by changes in The pattern of city growth and its spatial dimensions. The prime factors of spatial structure are determined by increasing spatial dimension of the city various historical, economic, social and are also the population growth and ecological forces that influence urban related requirements of urban life, such land-use. The improper use of urban as development of transport and land poses serious problems in all communication and others countries simply because the supply of infrastructure facilities. The mismatch surplus land is limited and subject to between the supply and demand of land many competing claims. Dissatisfaction leads to the degradation of with the emerging urban forms is environmentally fragile land, almost universal. Therefore, proper occupation of hazard prone areas, and planning of urban land-use is most loss of cultural resources, open space essential for an orderly and efficient and prime agricultural land. Within the growth of urban areas. existing built-up areas of cities A variety of factors affect the supply uncontrolled growth of population and and demand of land and its uses in a inadequate infrastructure may cause city. The supply of urban land is irreversible losses of cultural resources affected by such factors as location of and open space. Poorly managed city, laws related to land-use, structure development may also cause excessive of land markets and urban management. urban sprawl and negative impact on air Nevertheless, increasing population size quality, energy consumption and of cities and physical expansion of the

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built-up area beyond the city limits as to another affects the natural and well as rising demand for more land for cultural resources of the city. It may various purposes induce changes in also have negative implications for the urban land-use. urban poor.

It is observed that in developing The metropolitan cities in India have countries cities are growing very experienced rapid growth of rapidly. The land related problems are population, particularly in the post impounded in these cities because of the independence era. Many of them have distorted land markets and ineffective also experienced tremendous urban land management (Bernstein: expansion of their statutory limits 1994). Since 1950, the urban population (Ravindra: 1996). For every in third world cities has risen from 300 metropolitan area growth has spilled million to 1.3 billion and by the year beyond the city boundary, which is 2030, the cities in the developing expected to bring many undesirable countries are expected to grow by 160 changes in the land-use pattern within per cent (World Bank: 1991). In most the city as well as its surrounding developing countries, the expansion of areas. But not enough is known about urban population has resulted into a the magnitude of these land-use rapid rise in the demand for housing, changes and the relationship of these land for industry and commerce, and changes to population growth. This public buildings and infrastructure. Due study is an attempt in this direction to many competing claims for urban and focuses on Mumbai Metropolitan land and the consequent rise in land Region (MMR). The purpose of this prices, supplying land which can be study is to see the population developed at the pace and scale required distribution and its growth trends in is a challenge for authorities in most of different constituent units of MMR the cities in the developing countries. during 1971, 1991 and 2011. The study is also aimed at finding the Although urbanization process often land-use changes in MMR during this means accelerated economic period. In addition, it attempts to find performance for a country, the out what kind of land has been accompanying rise in prices of urban converted into built-up area. land and its conversion from one form

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Sources of Data, Limitations and plan for 1996-2011 have been collected Methodology through more sophisticated techniques like remote sensing and GIS. Therefore, The data for this study have been for comparative purposes, in this paper obtained from the following secondary land-use data have been reclassified in sources. the following broad categories. 1. Draft Regional Plan of Mumbai Metropolitan Region (Part I, II and III), 1971-91. 1. Built-up area: residential, commercial, and institutional. 2. Draft Regional Plan of Mumbai Metropolitan Region (Part I and II), 1996-2011. 2. Industrial. 3. Agricultural. 3. Regional Plan for Mumbai Metropolitan Region, 1971-1991, Vol. 1. 4. Forest: dense forest, sparse forest, scrub land. 5. Wet land. 4. Census of India, 1971 through 2001. 6. Water bodies There have been changes in the 7. Other areas: airport, harbour, beach/grooney, recreational zone (RTZ) and rocky out boundary of MMR during the two plan crops. periods. In 1991, the boundary of the Using the square graph technique, area MMR was extended to include Alibagh was calculated in each of the above- and Pen regions. Apart from that the mentioned categories directly from the sub-regions of MMR were also maps given in the two draft reports reclassified at that time. Similarly, the (details of the technique are given in land-use categories were also expanded Appendix No. 1). To see what kind of in the second plan period. For instance, land has been converted into built-up in 1971 there was no sub-classification area, the land-use maps for three time of forests, but in 1991 forests were periods were superimposed and areas classified as dense forest, sparse forest were calculated. This also gives us and scrubland. Therefore, it is difficult some idea of land-use changes due to to compare the land-use pattern of 1971 urban sprawl as well as population with that of 1991 and 2011. But, for the growth. To look into the relationship comparison purposes, the 1971 between population growth and land- metropolitan region taken into use change spatially, isopleth maps consideration. The land-use data prepared for 1971, 1991 and 2011 have presented in the 1971draft plan have been superimposed (details of the been generated from the land-use maps, technique are given in Appendix No. 2). whereas, the data presented in the draft

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Population Growth in Mumbai MMR. The overall population size of Metropolitan Region: MMR has increased from 7.7 million in 1971 to 14.4 million in 1991, almost The MMR is the largest metropolitan doubled in a short span of 20 years. It is region in India. It was notified by the expected to increase further to 22.2 government in 1967 on the million by 2011. As expected, the recommendations of the Gadgil greatest concentration of population in committee, which was appointed to MMR is in the Greater Mumbai region look into the problems of Mumbai city (Island city and Suburbs) followed by and suggest the policy measures to . overcome these problems. The committee felt planning within the In 1971, more than three-fourths of the narrow limits of the city could not solve population in MMR lived in Greater the problems of Mumbai. Regional Mumbai (Island city and Suburbs). In development was considered a necessity 1991, the share of population in this to solve a multitude of the problems region has come down to 69 per cent, faced by Mumbai. Therefore, a much which is expected to decline further to larger region was considered for 58 per cent by 2011. On the other hand, planning. The MMR includes within its , Kalyan, , , and folds the Municipal Corporations of Bassain are growing fast and the share Greater Mumbai, Thane, Kalyan, and of population in this region has , 16 municipal towns, 7 increased from 4.1 per cent, 6.5 per non-municipal urban centers and 995 cent, 1.2 per cent, 3.2 per cent and 2.6 villages. Its administrative region per cent respectively in 1971 to 7.7 per includes entire district of Greater cent, 9.5 per cent, 2.7 per cent, 4.3 per Mumbai, and parts of Thane and Raigad cent and 2.9 per cent, respectively in districts. 1991, and is expected to increase to 10 per cent, 11.4 per cent, 7.3 per cent, 5 Table 1 presents the size and proportion per cent and 4.5 per cent, respectively in of population and density in different 2011. constituent units of MMR for the periods from 1971 to 2011. It also In 1971, the overall density of MMR shows how population growth is was 1,989 persons per square distributed in each constituent unit of kilometer. The population density of

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Island city was exceptionally high at were Thane, Kalyan and Uran. By a level of 42,060 persons per square 2011, the population density in the km. In contrast, suburban areas had a Island city is expected to decline to density of 7,340 persons per square around 39,236 and in the suburbs it is km. But in 1991, the overall density expected to go up to around 25,578. of MMR increased to 3,743 and in The other regions which are 2011 it is expected to be 5,774 expecting a very high density (more persons per square km. The than 2,000) are Thane, Bassain, population density of Island city in Kalyan and Uran. Very soon Uran is 1991 was 44,096 persons per sq.km., going to be the next most congested while in suburbs it was around place after Suburbs, with a density of 17,087. The other regions which had more than 7,500. high density (nearly 2000 or more)

Table 1 Population distribution and density in MMR, 1971-2011

Population Percent of population Density Region/Sub 1971 1991 2011 1971 1991 2011 1971 1991 2011 Region Island city 3070378 3174889 2825000 40.1 22.0 12.7 42060 44096 39236 Suburbs 2900197 6751002 10106000 37.8 46.8 45.4 7340 17087 25578 Thane 312348 1104795 2238934 4.1 7.7 10.1 903 3193 6471 Bassain 200799 420263 1002031 2.6 2.9 4.5 461 964 2298 Bhiwandi 241424 626056 1115319 3.2 4.3 5.0 351 911 1623 Kalyan 500435 1365926 2545924 6.5 9.5 11.4 772 2108 3928 234415 427487 625645 3.1 3.0 2.8 408 745 1090 Uran 91557 390114 1616751 1.2 2.7 7.3 427 1821 7548 36577 72392 93167 0.5 0.5 0.4 213 421 542 75939 93629 84141 1.0 0.6 0.4 246 303 272 Total 7664069 14426553 22252912 100 100 100 1989 3743 5774 Source: Draft Regional Plan for MMR, 1971-1991 and 1996-2011, MMRDA

Table 2 presents the distribution of (Island city and Suburbs) observes a population growth and annual growth decline in its growth rate from 3.3 per rate in different constituent units. The cent in 1971-91 to 1.5 per cent during population growth rate in MMR 1991-2011. The growth rate of the declines from 4.4 per cent during 1971- Island city becomes negative during the 1991 to 2.7 per cent during 1991-2011. later period. Some of the areas of the It may be noted that Greater Mumbai region are growing at a dramatic rate.

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The annual population growth rate of population has been added only in the Thane was 12.7 per cent during 1971- suburban areas of Greater Mumbai 91, which is reduced to 5.1 per cent compared to only 1.5 per cent in the during 1991-2011. Similarly, Bhinwadi Island city. During this period 12 per cent and Kalyan had a growth rate of 8 per and 13 per cent of the additional cent and 8.6 per cent in 1971-91, which is population has gone to Thane and reduced to 3.9 per cent and 4.3 per cent, Kalyan. For the period 1991-2011, share respectively in 1991-2011. The other of population growth is expected to area, which experienced an increased decline to 43 per cent in suburbs and growth rate is Bassain. The annual increase to 15 per cent in Thane and growth rate of Bassain grew from 5.5 per Kalyan. The overall population of the cent in 1971-91 to 6.9 per cent in 1991- Island city is declining during this period. 2011. However, the contribution of Uran goes

Of the total population growth in MMR up in population growth from 4.4 per cent during 1971 to 1991, 57 per cent in 1971-91 to 15.7 per cent in 1991-2011.

Table 2 Population growth in MMR, 1971-2011 Distribution of population Population growth Annual growth rate growth Region/Sub 1971-91 1991-2011 1971-91 1991-2011 1971-91 1991-2011 Region Island city 104511 -349889 1.5 -4.5 0.2 -0.6 Suburbs 3850805 3354998 56.9 42.9 6.6 2.5 Thane 792447 1134139 11.7 14.5 12.7 5.1 Bassain 219464 581768 3.2 7.4 5.5 6.9 Bhiwandi 384632 489263 5.7 6.3 8.0 3.9 Kalyan 865491 1179998 12.8 15.1 8.6 4.3 Panvel 193072 198158 2.9 2.5 4.1 2.3 Uran 298557 1226637 4.4 15.7 16.3 15.7 Khalapur 35815 20775 0.5 0.3 4.9 1.4 Karjat 17690 -9488 0.3 -0.1 1.2 -0.5 Total 6762484 7826359 100 100 4.4 2.7 Source: Draft Regional Plan for MMR, 1971-1991 and 1996-2011, MMRDA

Land-use Pattern in Mumbai MMR in 1971. At that time nearly 4 Metropolitan Region per cent area of the region was used as built-up area, more than one- Table 3 presents the land-use fourth was under forest cover and pattern for different regions of more than half was used for

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agricultural purposes. In the Island very small proportion (less than 3 city three-fifths of the land was used per cent) in all the other regions. In as built-up area and 6 per cent for Thane about 4 per cent area was industrial purposes. But in the under industrial use. In Bassain, suburbs less than one-fifth area was Khalapur, Karjat and Bhiwandi one- used as built-up and 4 per cent as third or more area was under forest industrial land. In suburbs nearly cover. In Bhiwandi, Kalyan, Panvel, two-fifths of the land was used for and Karjat more than three-fifths of agricultural purposes or was under the land was used for agricultural the forest cover. Built-up area had a purposes (see figure 1).

Table 3 Existing land-use distribution in MMR in 1971 (Area in sq. km) Region/Sub Water Total Built-up Industry Agriculture Forest Wet land Others Region body area Island city 45.2 4.8 0 0 8.9 0 15 73.9 Suburbs 71 16 47.9 103 126.1 9.5 21.5 395 Thane 9.5 15 143 98 75.5 3.5 1.5 346 Bassain 1.3 0 206.3 180 44.3 4.3 0 436.2 Bhiwandi 1.6 1.5 443 200 25 16 0 687.1 Kalyan 13.2 1 421 171.2 1 24.6 16 648 Panvel 2 2.4 423.6 102 32 12 0 574 Uran 0.5 1 127.5 20 58 1.5 5.5 214 Khalapur 0.5 3.5 95 66 3 4 0 172 Karjat 4.3 0 191 105.2 0.5 8 0 309 Total 149.1 45.2 2098.3 1045.4 374.3 83.4 59.5 3855 Source: Draft Regional Plan for MMR, 1971-1991, MMRDA

Table 4 shows the land-use pattern for used for industries. In Bhinwadi, more 1991. Nearly one-tenth of the area of than half of the land was under the MMR was used as built-up area and agriculture. In all the other regions less than 3 per cent as industrial area. between 30 to 50 per cent of the land Two-fifths of the land was used for was used for agricultural purposes. In agricultural purposes and more than Khalapur and Karjat more than half of one-third was under the forest cover. the land was under forest cover. While In the Island city, built-up area was in Bassain, Bhinwadi, Kalyan and 71 per cent and industrial area was 8 Panvel between 30 to 45 per cent of per cent. In the suburbs, 33 per cent the land was under the forest cover area was built-up and 4 per cent was (see figure 1).

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Population growth and changing land-use pattern in Mumbai Metropolitan Region of India Arun Kumar Acharya Parveen Nangia

Figure 1

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Population growth and changing land-use pattern Arun Kumar Acharya in Mumbai Metropolitan Region of India Parveen Nangia

Table 4 Existing land-use distribution in MMR in 1991 (Area in sq. km)

Region/Sub Water Total Built-up Industry Agriculture Forest Wet land Others Region body area Island city 51.8 6.3 0 0 5.9 0 9.9 73.9 Suburbs 130.1 16.3 24.6 95.8 98.1 8.8 21.4 395.1 Thane 46.4 40.9 83.8 98 72.1 3.4 1.5 346.2 Bassain 26.6 1.7 160.7 200 43.8 3.2 0 436 Bhiwandi 17.9 0.4 388.7 232 37.6 10.4 0 687 Kalyan 38.1 17.4 277.5 274.5 7.3 16.8 16.5 648.1 Panvel 25.6 14.3 250.4 236.8 35 12 0 574.1 Uran 6.8 1.3 71.2 70.2 57.7 1.5 5.5 214.2 Khalapur 3.2 3.5 40.7 117 4.3 3.3 0 172 Karjat 4.8 0 148.4 147.5 0.5 7.9 0 309.1 Total 351 101.7 1445.9 1471.6 362.0 67.1 54.7 3855 Source: Draft Regional Plan for MMR, 1996-2011, MMRDA

⇒ Urbanisable Zone U1 Table 5 shows the proposed land-use ⇒ Urbanisable Zone U2 plan for 2011. Mumbai Metropolitan ⇒ Industrial Zone ⇒ Forest Regional Development Authority ⇒ Agriculture ⇒ Wet land modified the zoning plan for the plan ⇒ Water body period 1996-2011. The new land-use ⇒ Others (Airport, Quarry zone, RTZ, etc.) categories are given below:

Table 5

Proposed land-use distribution in MMR in 2011 (Area in sq. km)

Region/Sub Built-up Industry Agriculture Forest Wet land Water body Others Total area Region Island city 56.8 5.5 0 0 0 0 11.5 73.9 Suburbs 180.2 27.9 100.5 0 0 7.6 79.2 395 Thane 176 25.8 73.3 23.5 13.7 4.2 29.5 346 Bassain 93.8 4.2 176.5 129.4 5.2 2.2 24.7 436 Bhiwandi 92.4 2.8 342.4 215.1 2.1 7.4 25.5 687 Kalyan 138 24.9 300 157 0.2 14.8 13.4 648 Panvel 170.5 4.52 180.4 160.23 8.3 16.46 33.64 574 Uran 76.7 41.1 18.4 23.2 32.4 1.4 21.4 214 Khalapur 34.36 3.3 51.3 64.7 0 8.2 10.4 172 Karjat 55.28 0 138.5 106.1 0 5.8 3.4 309 Total 1074.04 140.02 1381.3 879.23 61.9 68.06 252.64 3855 Source: Draft Regional Plan for MMR, 1996-2011, MMRDA

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According to this plan, built–up area is other regions less than 40 per cent land is divided into two categories - U1 and U2. used for agriculture. It is as low as 10 per Zone U1 includes those areas, which are cent in Uran (see figure 1). primarily built-up and intensively used Due to peculiar geographical location of for residential and economic activities. the MMR urban sprawl has taken place While Zone U2 includes the land within 1 only in one direction. Till 1971 urban km on either side of important roads and built-up area of MMR was 149.1 sq.km, within 1.5 km radius from railways out of which 116.2 sq.km area was stations subjects to other physical and located in Greater Mumbai (Island city statutory constraints. and suburbs). Until that time urban The proposed land-use plan shows that expansion was confined to the Island by 2011 more than one-fourth area of city and its suburbs. In the later period the MMR will be built-up in the U1 and growth took place along the transport U2 categories. About 4 per cent of the network beyond Greater Mumbai and land will be for industrial use and 23 on the main land mainly towards per cent under forest cover. The Bassain, Bhiwandi, Thane, Kalyan, proportion of agricultural land remains Panvel, Uran, Khalapur and Karjat. In almost at the same level of slightly less these regions large parts of agricultural than 40 per cent. In the Island city and forest land were brought under three-fourths of the land is built-up and built-up area. 8 per cent is used for industries. In the Land-use Change in Mumbai suburbs 46 per cent of the land is built- Metropolitan Region up and 7 per cent is used for industries. Table 6 shows the land-use distribution in Only in Bhiwandi and Karjat region the constituent units of MMR. It focuses more than 30 per cent area is under only on the built-up area, agricultural forests cover. In all the other regions area, forest area and wet land. A less than 30 per cent area is under forests. comparison of this table with Table 1 Out of all the regions Bhinwadi and reflects upon the inequality in the Kalyan have the highest proportion of distribution of population and built-up land for agricultural use (nearly 50 per area. The share of Island city in overall cent), followed by Karjat where 45 per built-up area of MMR is declining with cent land is used for agriculture. In all the time, which is in congruity with share of

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population distribution. But the share of built-up area, but in 2011 although the built-up area in Suburbs has decreased share of population remains the same the substantially, whereas share of population proportion of built-up area increases to 16 has increased during 1971-91 and has percent. remained almost at the same level during Table 7 presents the changes in land-use 1991-2011. In most of the places the pattern in MMR during 1971 to 2011. proportion of population and built-up area In 1971 more than half of the land (54 has gone up during the study period. In per cent) in MMR was under agriculture some areas the inequality has increased and more than one-fourth was covered sharply. For example, in 1971 Panvel had by forests. Only a small part of the 3 percent of population and 1 percent of region (4 per cent) was built-up area.

Table 6

Land-use distribution in MMR in 1971-2011 (in %)

Proportion of Proportion of Proportion of Proportion of Built-up area Agriculture area Forest area Wet land area Region/Sub 1971 1991 2011 1971 1991 2011 1971 1991 2011 1971 1991 2011 Region Island city 30.3 14.7 5.3 0 0 0 0 0 0 2.4 1.6 0 Suburbs 47.6 37.1 16.8 4.9 1.7 7.3 9.9 6.5 0 33.7 27.1 0 Thane 6.4 13.2 16.4 6.8 5.8 5.3 9.4 6.7 2.7 20.2 19.9 22.1 Bassain 0.9 7.6 8.7 9.8 11.1 12.8 17.2 13.6 14.7 11.8 12.1 8.4 Bhiwandi 1.1 5.1 8.6 21.1 26.9 24.8 19.1 15.8 24.5 6.7 10.4 3.4 Kalyan 8.9 10.9 12.8 20.1 19.2 21.7 16.4 18.7 17.9 0.3 2 0.3 Panvel 1.3 7.3 1.6 20.2 17.3 13.1 6.8 16.1 18.2 8.5 9.6 13.4 Uran 0.4 1.9 7.1 6.1 4.9 1.3 1.9 4.8 2.6 15.5 15.9 52.3 Khalapur 0.4 0.9 3.2 4.5 2.8 3.7 6.3 7.9 7.4 0.8 1.1 0 Karjat 2.9 1.4 5.1 9.1 10.3 10 10.1 10 12.1 0.1 0.1 0 Source: Draft Regional Plan for MMR, 1971-1991 and 1996-2011, MMRDA

Table 7

Comparative area of existing and proposed land-use in MMR (Area in sq. km)

Existing land-use in 1971 Existing land-use in 1991 Proposed land-use in 2011 Area % Area % Area % Built-up 149.1 3.9 351 9.1 1074.04 27.8 Industry 45.2 1.2 101.7 2.6 140.02 3.6 Agriculture 2098.3 54.4 1445.9 37.5 1381.3 35.8 Forest 1045.4 27.1 1471.6 38.2 879.23 22.8 Wet land 374.3 9.7 362. 9.4 91.9 1.6 Water body 83.4 2.2 67.1 1.7 68.06 1.8 Others 1 59.5 1.5 54.7 1.4 252.64 6.6 Note: Others1 includes Airport, Harbour, Beach/grooney, RTZ and Rocky out crop. Source: Calculated from Table 3, 4 and 5.

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In 1991 the proportion of area under Table 8 shows the changes in the actual agriculture declined to 38 per cent. On area under different uses during the two the other hand, built-up area increased time periods. The areas in different to 9 per cent. In all the other land-use categories of land-use have been categories there was hardly any change. calculated by superimposing map of The proportion of area under forest and 2011 on the map of 1991 and 1971. green land also increased from 27 to 38 Nearly 202 sq. km of land under percent. In the proposed land-use plan different uses was converted to built-up there is a much greater emphasis on area during 1971-1991, but during increasing the built-up area. More than 1991-2011 the area of such conversion one-fourth of the land in the increases to 717 sq. km. While during metropolitan region will be built-up by 1971-1991 57 square km of land was 2011. For this purpose mainly forest added to industrial use, in the later land is being used as its proportion period only 24 sq. km land is added for declines from 38 to 23 per cent during such use. During 1991-2011 agricultural 1991 to 2011. The proportion of land declines by 43 square km, forest wetland also declines substantially land by 593 square km and wetland by during this period from 9 per cent to 300 square km. less than 2 per cent.

Table 8

Land-use changes in MMR (Area in sq. km)

Land-use change in 1971-2011 1971-91 1991-2011 Built-up 202 723 Industry 57 38 Agriculture -652 -65 Forest 426 -592 Wet land -12 -300 Water body -16 1 Others 1 -5 198 Note: Others1 includes Airport, Harbour, Beach/grooney, RTZ and Rocky out crop. Source: Calculated from Table 3, 4 and 5.

Table 9 shows details of different types During 1971-91 nearly two-thirds of the of land that were converted into built-up land that was converted into built-up area during the two time periods. area was under agricultural use earlier.

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Nearly one-fifth was wetland and little built-up area was under forest use more than one-tenth was under forest earlier and one-third of the land was cover. But in 1991-2011 little more than converted into built-up area was wet half the land that was converted into land earlier.

Table 9

Conversion of different land-uses to built-up area in MMR during 1971-91 and 1991-2011 (Area in sq.km)

Conversion of land Conversion of land during 1971-91 during 1991-2011 Area % Area % Industry 1 0.5 2 0.3 Agriculture 137 63.9 57 7.9 Forest 28 13.1 388 54.1 Wet land 41 18.9 244 33.9 Water body 4 1.4 6 0.8 Others 1 5 2.2 22 3 Note: Others1 includes Airport, Harbour, Beach/gooney, RTZ and Rocky out crop. Source: Calculated from Land-Use Map of Draft Regional Plan for MMR, 1971 to 1991 and 1996-2011, MMRDA.

Relationship Between Population strong relationship between population Growth and Land-use Change: growth and land-use change in suburbs, central part of Bassin, southern To see the relationship between Bhiwandi, northern and central part of population growth and land-use change, Kalyan, Uran, Thane and western part isopleth maps prepared for 1971, 1991 of Panvel regions. The relationship is and 2011 and have been superimposed. medium in southern Kalyan, south The 1971-91 isopleth map showing a eastern Panvel and southern part of strong relationship between population Karjat and Khalapur. It is weak in growth and land-use change in Island central Bhiwandi and northern part of city, Suburbs, central part of Thane and Karjat and Khalapur (see figure 2). central part of Kalyan. The relationship is medium in southern part of Bhiwandi, Summary: western part of Bassin, central part of Population in MMR has grown very fast Panvel and Uran. It is weak in Khalapur in the past but the growth rate shows a and Karjat (see figure 2). declining trend. The Island city, which The 1991-2011 isopleth map showing a supports one-thirds of the population, has

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Population growth and changing land-use pattern Arun Kumar Acharya in Mumbai Metropolitan Region of India Parveen Nangia

started loosing population. The three Nhava Sheva has started attracting other regions, which have been growing very commercial activities. Its growth rate was fast, are Thane, Kalyan and Uran. The 4 per cent during 1971-91. A significant Uran region has experienced a dramatic growth in population in Thane, Kalyan growth rate of 15 per cent per year during and Panvel regions can be attributed to 1991-2011 because the new port of industrialization.

Figure 2

Along with population growth built-up forest land and wetland. The MMR was area has also increased, from 4 per cent developed with the idea of decongesting in 1971 to 9 per cent in 1991. Mumbai city and its suburbs, but the Nevertheless, in 2011 more than one- plan has not been successful because the fourth of the land in MMR will be used density of population is very high in this as built-up area. The increase in built-up part of the region. Although population area is at the cost of agricultural land, density in the Island city shows a

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Population growth and changing land-use pattern Arun Kumar Acharya in Mumbai Metropolitan Region of India Parveen Nangia

declining trend the suburbs still Bohar, Bombay. experience an increase in density during Ravindra, A. (1996). ‘‘Urban Land 1991-2011. Policy: A Metropolitan Perspective’’, REFERENCES Concept Publishing Co., New Delhi.

Bernstein D.J. (1994). ‘‘Land-use Appendix:

Consideration in Urban Management 1. The square graph technique is (UMP)’’, World Bank, Washington used to calculate the area of different D.C. smaller units on the map having BMRDA (1968). ‘‘Draft Regional Plan similar characteristics. A graph paper For Bombay Metropolitan Region is used to calculate the area according (BMR)’’, 1971-1991’. BMRDA, to the scale of the map. Bombay. 2. Isopleth map is prepared by BMRDA (1995). ‘‘Draft Regional Plan drawing isolines. Isolines are lines on For Bombay Metropolitan Region map joining places with same value for (BMR)’’, 1996-2011’. BMRDA, selected variables. The area between Bombay. two isolines is shaded according to the

BMRPB (1973). ‘‘Regional Plan For ranges of higher to lower values. Here administrative boundaries are not taken Bombay Metropolitan Region (BMR), 1970-1991’’, Vol-1. Bombay. into consideration for showing the distribution of selected characteristics. David M.D. (1996). ‘‘Urban Explosion of Mumbai’’, Himalayan Publishing 3. The spatial variation of House, Mumbai. relationship between two different variables can be seen by superimposing Gerhard K. Heilig. (1994). ‘‘Neglecting the isopleth maps of those variables. If the Dimensions of Global Land-use pattern of isolines are similar then the Change: Reflection and Data’’, relationship is strong. If the isolines of Population Development Review higher values of one variables coincide (PDR), Volume 20, Number 4, with the isolines of higher value of December 1994. another variables the relationship is Mayur R and Prem R. Bohra. (1978). positive, but if the isolines of lower value ‘‘Bombay By 2000 A.D’’, Prem Ratan of one variable coincide with the higher

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Population growth and changing land-use pattern Arun Kumar Acharya in Mumbai Metropolitan Region of India Parveen Nangia

value of another variable, the relationship intersect at low angle the relationships is is negative. If the isolines of two variables weak and if the isolines of two variables intersect at right angle, there is no are parallel to each other the relationship relationship between the two variables in is strong (see figure 3). that area. If the isolines of two variables

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Population growth and changing land-use pattern Arun Kumar Acharya in Mumbai Metropolitan Region of India Parveen Nangia

Figure 3

VARIABLES OF ISOLINES AND THERE RELATIONSHIPS

30

POSITIVE STRONG

30

30

NEGATIVE STRONG

5

30

5 NO RELATIONSHIP

30

30 WEAK POSITIVE

30 5 WEAK NEGATIVE

30

30 WEAK POSITIVE

30

5 WEAK NEGATIVE

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