In Sri Lanka

The Impact, Mitigation and Adaptation to Climat e Change in Sri Lan ka

M. M. P. Mendis Department of Meteorology Sri Lanka Four Rain Seasons .

. . North-East East Monsoon Monsoon Season Season (Dec (Dec-Feb) Feb)First Inter monsson Season (Mar- Apr) Average Rainfall in mm Average Rainfall in mm Second Inter Monsoon Season South-West Monsoon Season (May-Sep) (Oct-Nov) Average Rainfall in mm Average Rainfall in mm

10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0

JAFFNA JAFFNA JAFFNA

9.5 9.5 9.5 9.5

MANNAR MANNAR MANNAR 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 VAVUNIYA 3500 VAVUNIYA 3500 VAVUNIYA

TRINCOMALEE TRINCOMALEE 3000 TRINCOMALEE 3000 800 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 ANURADHAPURA ANURADHAPURA 2000 700 ANURADHAPURA 2000 MAHA-ILLUPPALLAMA MAHA-ILLUPPALLAMA 600 1500 MAHA-ILLUPPALLAMA PUTTALAM PUTTALAM PUTTALAM 8.0 1500 8.0 8.0 8.0 500 1000 1000 BATTICALOA BATTICALOA 400 BATTICALOA 600 KURUNEGALA 7.5 600 KURUNEGALA KURUNEGALA KATUGASTOTA 7.5 7.5 KATUGASTOTA 400 7.5 300 KATUGASTOTA KATUNAYAKA 400 KATUNAYAKA 200 KATUNAYAKA 300 NUWARA-ELIYABADULLA 7.0 300 NUWARA-ELIYABADULLA 100 NUWARA-ELIYABADULLA COLOMBO 7.0 POTTUVIL COLOMBO 7.0 7.0 COLOMBO RATMALANA BANDARAWELA POTTUVIL 200 POTTUVIL RATMALANA BANDARAWELA RATMALANA BANDARAWELA RATNAPURA 200 50 RATNAPURA 0 RATNAPURA 10 6.5 0 6.5 6.5 6.5

HAMBANTOTA HAMBANTOTA GALLE HAMBANTOTA GALLE GALLE 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0

Issued by Department of Meteorology Issued by Department of Meteorology Issued by Department of Meteorology Issued by Department of Meteorology 5.5 79.5 80.0 80.5 81.0 81.5 82.05.5 5.5 5.5 79.5 80.0 80.5 81.0 81.5 82.0 79.5 80.0 80.5 81.0 81.5 82.0 79.5 80.0 80.5 81.0 81.5 82.0

Computed for the standard Averaging period 1961-1990 Computed for the standard Averaging period 1961-1990 Computed for the standard Averaging perio SEASONS Southwest Northeast Computed for the standard Averaging period First 1961-1990 Second Monsoon Monsoon Intermonsoon Intermonsoon

PERIOD May-Sep Dec-Feb Mar-Apr Oct-Nov RAINFALL 556 mm 479 mm 268 mm 558 mm (Average) Variability of Seasonal Rainfall in Sri Lanka

Contribution of seasonal rainfall to annual total Northeast Monsoon – 25% Southwest Monsoon – 30% First Intermonsoon – 15% Second Intermonsoon– 30%

1901‐1930 1931‐1960 1961‐1990 1991‐2010 1881‐2010 Northeast Monsoon 529((%)27%) 582((%)32%) 459((%)44%) 459((%)44%) 517((%)37%) Southwest Monsoon 548(22%) 541(22%) 534(17%) 470(22%) 534(22%) First Intermonsoon 268(33%) 301(23%) 263(29%) 243(36%) 271(29%) Second Intermonsoon 595(23%) 571(23%) 554(24%) 559(26%) 577(23%) Annual 1936(10%) 1993(12%) 1813(15%) 1714(13%) 1896(13%)

Coeff. Variation (CV) within parenthesis Observed Annual Rainfall – Sri Lanka

In general, a decreasing trend during the last 30 – 40 years Future Scenarios

Rainfall Change Scenario under A2 Storyline

1200 1061 1000

baseline 800 600 SWM

(mm) 402 NEM 400 nt over the ee 173 200 143 23 54 Increm 0 2025 2050 2100 Year

HadCM3 (Hadley Centre Couple Model Version 3) Observed Air Temperature Since 1960, the average temperature rise is of the in Sri Lanka (1931-2009): order of 0.16 oC per decade

DiDuring the same per idiod glbllobal temp r ise 0130.13 ooC per dddecade Future Scenarios

Mean Temperature change scenario under A2 Storyline (Annual)

3 2.4 2.5 eline (C) eline ss 2 1.6 1.5 0.9 over the ba

1 tt 0.4 0.5

0 Incremen 2025 2050 2075 2100 Year

HadCM3 (Hadley Centre Couple Model Version 3) Future Scenarios

Projected increase in mean annual temperature by 2100 in Sri Lanka (base period 1961-1990 and A2 S/L)

Source Model Change in OC

Kumar et al., 2006 PRECIS +252.5 to + 404.0

Islam & Rehman,2004 PRECIS +2.5 to +4.0

Basnayake et al., 2004 Downscaling +1.7 to +2.5

De Silva, 2006 Downscaling +1. 6 (by 2050)

General Consensus SL will becom e increa sing ly war mer! BUT magnitude of warming ? Impacts of climate change in Sri Lanka

1. Increases in the frequency and intensity of droughts, floods and landslides

2. Variability and unpredictability of rainfall patterns

3. Increase in temperature

4. Sea level rise Climate Extremes Frequency of climate extremes, especially those related to rainfall has increased

Some of the highest rainfalls have been experienced during the last two decades e.g. 725 mm at Deniyaya 2003 522 mm at Kudawa 2003 493 mm at Colombo 1992 440 mm at Colombo 2009 ` 338 mm at Ratnapura 2003 337 mm at Kandy 2012 316 mm at Kurunegala 2012

Leading not only to Floods But also to severe Landslides (a significant increase in landslides)

10 Highest 24H Rainfall in Colombo on yearly basis from 1869

493.7 mm June 4, 1992

440.2 mm Nov 10, 2010

Source: Department of Meteorology, 2010 More and more extreme rain events are experienced. Landslide

Main triggering mechanism for Landslides is exceptionally heavy rainfall A significant increase in Landslide occurrences 10 districts out of 25 are vulnerable to landslide. Almost 30% land area in Sri Lanka Vulnerability to Landslides

Source : Climate Change Secretariat – Ministry of Environment , Sri Lanka Vulnerability to Sea Level Rise

Sri Lanka is presently experiencing an erosion rate of 0.30 – 0.35 m per year in 45% - 55% of the coastline

Coastal area in Sri Lanka consists of • 24% of the land area • 32% of the population • 65% of the urbanized land area • A significant extent of agricultural land

Sea Le ve l Rise togeth er wi th in cr eased wave heights due to Climate Change can further increase coastal erosion. Vulnerability to Sea Level Rise

Source : Climate Change Secretariat – Ministry of Environment , Sri Lanka Increased Occurrence of Droughts

On average, Sri Lanka faces drought conditions every 3-4 years. However, in the recent few decades – more and more drought are experience Vulnerability to Droughts

Source : Climate Change Secretariat – Ministry of Environment , Sri Lanka Use of Space Base Information to address Challengers of Climate Change

1. Identification of high intensity rainfall events

2. To study the variability of seasonal rainfall patterns 1. Identification of high intensity rainfall events

Rainfall Intensity (mm/hr) - Maliboda 45 24 to 26 May 2012 40 35 30

m) 25 20 15 ainfall (m RR 105 0 24 00 24 03 24 06 24 09 24 12 24 15 24 18 24 21 25 00 25 03 25 06 25 09 25 12 25 15 25 18 25 21 26 00 26 03 26 06 26 09 26 12 26 15 26 18 26 21 Date & Time (UTC) Rainfall Intensity (mm/hr) - Ratnapura 24 to 26 May 2012

15 l (mm)

10 Rainfal

0 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 Data & Time (UTC)

Raifall IntensityIntensity (mm/hr)(mm/hr) - Tawalama Tawalama 24 to 26 May 2012

) 40

20 Rainfall (mm Rainfall

0 24 00 24 03 24 06 24 09 24 12 24 15 24 18 24 21 25 00 25 03 25 06 25 09 25 12 25 15 25 18 25 21 26 00 26 03 26 06 26 09 26 12 26 15 26 18 26 21 Date & Time (UTC) 2. To study the variability of seasonal rainfall patterns

TRMM Level-3 Monthly Rain Rate Anomaly TRMM 3B43 Climatology Rain Rate (mm/hr) TRMM 3B43 Anomaly of Rain Rate Jun - Sept (1998-2012) 2008 (Jun - Sept) (mm/hr)x10^-2 2009 (Jun - Sept) (mm/hr)x10^-2

2010 (Jun - Sept) (mm/hr) 2011 (Jun - Sept) (mm/hr)x10^-2 2012 (Jun - Sept) (mm/hr)x10^-2 Monthly Outgoing Long wave Radiation (OLR) SWM season (Jun – Sept) Integrated Satellite data from NOAA/CPC

2007 2008 2009

2010 2011 2012 TRMM Level-3 Monthly Rain Rate Anomaly TRMM 3B43 Climatology Rain Rate (mm/hr) TRMM 3B43 Anomaly of Rain Rate Dec - Feb (1998-2012) Dec2008 – Feb2009 (mm/hr) Dec2009 – Feb2010 (mm/hr)

Dec2010 – Feb2011 (mm/hr) Dec2011 – Feb2012 (mm/hr) Dec2012 – Feb2013 (mm/hr) Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) 2008 2009

2010 2011

2012 Latitude-Time Diagram of daily OLR (Monsoon Season- Jun 01 to Sept 30)

Progression of daily Mean OLR (W/m^2) from KALPANA satellite data, Between Long 50E to 110E and Lat 15S to 40N Closing Remarks

 As a small Island, Sri Lanka can be obtain unique benefit of the used of space base ifinforma tion com bine d with groun d data to address changes in the weather and climate.  The capacity of receiving of earth observation data should be developed.  Reliable more ocean observations (Remote sensing/ in situ) should be increased.  Remote sensing data should be available free of charge or amounts of low cost. Thank You Tracks of Tropical Cyclones Crossed Sri Lanka (1901 - 2000)

Glob al annual of tropical storm Bay of Bengal : 5% AbinArabian Sea : 1-2%

Sri Lanka bringing much rain and strong wind but chance of land fall along east coast very low (only 16 out of some 1300 storms since 1891) Trincomalee Cyclone

25 December 2000Country Presentation – Sri Lanka Cyclone ‘NISHA’ 2008.11.28 Tropical Cyclone “NILAM”

Track of Tropical Cyclone "NI LAM" 2010/10/26 - 2012/11/01

15 1430 00 00

14 // 31 31/090 26/203

13 26/1430

12 T1.0/1.0 26/0857 27/0230 31/0300 T4.0/4.0 27/1430

11 T1.5/ 27/08 30/2030 Latitude (N) 30/1430 27/2110 28/0230 8/2030

10 1 30 22 .5 T2.5/2.5 28/0830 T3.0/3.0 30/0830 28/1430 29/0830

9 29/2030 29/0230 T3.5/3.5 30/0300 8

5 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95

Longitude (E)