GeoMath Workshop, Evanston, October 5, 2011 Northwestern Univ.
Michael Ghil Ecole Normale Supérieure, Paris, and University of California, Los Angeles Joint work with M.D. Chekroun and D. Kondrashov (UCLA), E. Simonnet (INLN, Nice), S. Wang (Indiana U.), and I. Zaliapin (U. Nevada, Reno)
Please visit these sites for more info. http://www.atmos.ucla.edu/tcd/ http://www.environnement.ens.fr/ J. G. Charney: A.B. (1938, Mathematics), M.A. (1940, Mathematics), Ph.D. (1946, Meteorology); all UCLA.
E. N. Lorenz: A. B. (1938, Math, Dartmouth), A. M. (1940, Math, Harvard), S. M. (1943, Meteorology, MIT), Sc. D. (1948, Meteorology, MIT).
It seemed for a while like computers & satellites might replace the math. But it appears now that these powerful tools require more math, not less, for their effective utilization.
Iʼll try to provide one more illustration of just why & how.
M. Ghil (disclaimer): B. Sc. (1966) & M.Sc. (1971), Mech. Engng. (Technion-IIT); M. S. (1973) & Ph. D. (1975), Courant Inst., NYU (Math) Jule Gregory Charney Edward Norton Lorenz January 1, 1917 – June 16, 1981 May 23, 1917 – April 16, 2008
• The IPCC process: results and further questions • Natural climate variability as a source of uncertainties – sensitivity to initial data error growth – sensitivity to model formulation see below! • Uncertainties and how to fix them – structural in/stability – random dynamical systems (RDS) • Two or more illustrative examples – Arnolʼd tongues and a ʻʻFrench gardenʼʼ – the Lorenz system