E*Space 5 Conference, Cape Town, 10-15th July 1999

Finding the source of

Martin Dodge Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis University College London What does .com look like?

Figure 2: Amazon.com Stock Price

250

200

150 Price $

100

50

0 15/05/97 30/05/97 13/06/97 27/06/97 14/07/97 28/07/97 11/08/97 25/08/97 09/09/97 23/09/97 07/10/97 21/10/97 04/11/97 18/11/97 03/12/97 17/12/97 02/01/98 16/01/98 02/02/98 17/02/98 03/03/98 17/03/98 31/03/98 15/04/98 29/04/98 13/05/98 28/05/98 11/06/98 25/06/98 10/07/98 24/07/98 07/08/98 21/08/98 04/09/98 21/09/98 05/10/98 19/10/98 02/11/98 16/11/98 01/12/98 15/12/98 30/12/98 14/01/99 29/01/99 12/02/99 01/03/99 15/03/99 29/03/99 13/04/99 27/04/99 11/05/99 25/05/99 09/06/99 23/06/99 Date Where is Amazon.com? real & virtual Mythology of Amazon • Fascinating story of myth and hype • Bezos - goofy nerd and multi-billionaire • Genesis myths – the 2300% statistic – no gorillas in the book market – the drive West in the old Chevy – starts in the garage – irony of using B&N coffee shop • Stock price bubble - $20 billion Amazon.com stock price from May 1997 to June 1999.

250

$210.125 (23/04/99) $184.625

200 (11/01/99)

150 Price $

100

50

0 15/05/97 30/05/97 13/06/97 27/06/97 14/07/97 28/07/97 11/08/97 25/08/97 09/09/97 23/09/97 07/10/97 21/10/97 04/11/97 18/11/97 03/12/97 17/12/97 02/01/98 16/01/98 02/02/98 17/02/98 03/03/98 17/03/98 31/03/98 15/04/98 29/04/98 13/05/98 28/05/98 11/06/98 25/06/98 10/07/98 24/07/98 07/08/98 21/08/98 04/09/98 21/09/98 05/10/98 19/10/98 02/11/98 16/11/98 01/12/98 15/12/98 30/12/98 14/01/99 29/01/99 12/02/99 01/03/99 15/03/99 29/03/99 13/04/99 27/04/99 11/05/99 25/05/99 09/06/99 23/06/99 Date Kentucky Nevada Georgia Delaware Seattle (93,000 sq ft) (770,000 sq ft) (323,000 sq ft) (800,000 sq ft) (200,000 sq ft) (570,000 sq ft)

Distribution Centres Kansas United Kingdom Germany (750,000 sq ft) (41,000 sq ft) (32,000 sq ft)

Shop the Amazon.de Amazon.co.uk Web

Associates (260,000) http://www.amazon.com Amazon.com, Inc Livebid.com (100%) auction 1516 Second Ave, Seattle e-cards Traffic Generation Auctions music videos gifts Sotheby’s auction Major house ($45m) books Portals (eg Altavista)

PlanetAll.com (100%) Alexa (100%)

Strategic Technologies Pets.com (54%) Homegrocer.com (35%) Junglee (100%) Accept.com (100%) Exchange.com (100%) Web Retailing Properties

IMDb.com (100%) Drugstore.com (46%) Amazon.co.uk and Amazon.de web sites Secure web servers per 100,000 inhabitants, August 1998 Traceroutes from Global One in South Africa to Amazon

www.amazon.com fe0-0.cr1.sdt.iafrica.net gip-penn-2-serial10-1.gip.net sl-bb7-pen-1-0-0.sprintlink.net sl-bb11-pen-1-3.sprintlink.net sl-bb10-sea-8-0.sprintlink.net sl-bb11-sea-9-0.sprintlink.net sl-bb1-sea-8-0-0.sprintlink.net sl-internap-14-0-0.sprintlink.net border3as.fe0-1-fenet2.sea.pnap.net amazon-4.sea.pnap.net 208.226.123.11 www.amazon.com www.amazon.co.uk www.amazon.de fe0-0.cr1.sdt.iafrica.net fe0-0.cr1.sdt.iafrica.net gip-penn-2-serial10-1.gip.net gip-penn-2-serial10-1.gip.net sl-bb7-pen-1-0-0.sprintlink.net sl-bb7-pen-1-0-0.sprintlink.net sl-bb11-pen-1-3.sprintlink.net sl-bb11-pen-1-3.sprintlink.net sl-bb10-sea-8-0.sprintlink.net sl-bb10-sea-8-0.sprintlink.net sl-bb11-sea-9-0.sprintlink.net sl-bb11-sea-9-0.sprintlink.net sl-bb1-sea-8-0-0.sprintlink.net sl-bb1-sea-8-0-0.sprintlink.net sl-internap-14-0-0.sprintlink.net sl-internap-14-0-0.sprintlink.net border3as.fe0-1-fenet2.sea.pnap.net border3as.fe0-1-fenet2.sea.pnap.net amazon-6.border3as.sea.pnap.net amazon-6.border3as.sea.pnap.net 208.226.123.14 208.226.122.14 www.amazon.co.uk www.amazon.de Will Amazon Wash Away the Malls?

• End of malls, but not an end to shopping in the real world • Online lacks emotional experience • Bezos - "strip malls are history" • Refocus retailing • "shoptainment" • 24 x 7 convenience Will Amazon Run Dry? • Competition from "brick & mortar" dinosaurs • Bertelsmann AG • Brand dissolution • How loyal are the Amazon.com "community" • Debts and deep pockets • Price wars • Barriers to entry are not as low as they seem • Competitive price agents Comparative Price Shopping - Acses