January 2011
Northamptonshire Local Economic Assessment 2010/11 Evidence and analysis of the local economy 2 | NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy Contents
Summary 4 Key Statistics on Northamptonshire 5 1. Introduction 7 2. Swot Analysis 15 3. Labour Market 25 4. Business & Enterprise 71 5. Land Buildings & Infrastructure 89 6. People & Communities 109 7. Environment 141
NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy | 3 Summary
This is the first Northamptonshire Local Economic Assessment. It has been produced by Northamptonshire County Council and Northamptonshire Enterprise Ltd, with the involvement of a wide range of organisations. This Assessment considers the evidence base and includes a detailed SWOT analysis of the strengths, weaknesses and opportunities in the local economy. Whilst providing a ‘snapshot’ of the local economy in 2010, it is supported by live updates of the data which are available to view on the Northamptonshire Observatory: www.northamptonshireobservatory.co.uk/LEA An executive summary is available separately.
4 | NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy Key Statistics on Northamptonshire
Northamptonshire (England) Source Total GVA £13.5 billion Office for National Statistics, 2007
683,800 in 2009 ONS Mid year estimates 2009 & sub- Total Population 805,600 in 2025 national population projections 2008 Total number of employees 315,100 Annual Business Inquiry, 2008 Economically active 84% (79%) Annual population survey, 2008 Unemployment rate 3.3% (3.5%) DWP, July 2010 Average weekly earnings £452 (£495) Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings 2009 New companies created 3,105 Office for National Statistics, 2008 1 year = 93.4% (92.6%) Business survival rates Office for National Statistics, 2008 5 year = 47.7% (46.4%) Skills profile
No qualifications 15.0% (12.3%)
Level 1 and above 16.1% (14.2%) Annual population survey, 2008 Level 2 and above 16.2% (16.1%)
Level 3 and above 14.6% (15.8%)
Level 4 and above 26.1% (28.7%) Industrial and commercial floorspace 5.3 million m2 Valuation Office, 2008 Average House Price £138,115 (£167,423) Land Registry, August 2010 Housing affordability ratio (lower quartile 6.02 (6.28) CLG, 2009 house price to lower quartile earnings) Carbon emissions 7.9 tonnes per capita NI186 Household waste reused or recycled 46% NI192
NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy | 5 ‘The Local Economic Assessment (LEA) is a new tool which will produce a robust and informed evidence base about the local economy’ 6 | NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy 1 Introduction
Background Aims of the Assessment The ‘Local Democracy, Economic The key aim of this Assessment is to Development and Construction Act 2009’ provide evidence on a range of issues places a new duty on county and unitary that relate to the local economy, and to councils to prepare an assessment of the look at some of the relationships between economic conditions of their area. these factors. It aims to include: The Local Economic Assessment (LEA) is a • Some clear intelligence and understanding new tool which will produce a robust and of the local economy and how it impacts on informed evidence base about the local the well-being of residents and businesses economy. It should equip local authorities and • An objective assessment of the partners with a common understanding of Northamptonshire economy, both local economic conditions and the economic, its strengths and weaknesses social and environmental factors that • Some of the potential opportunities and impact on economic growth. This improved priorities for growth in the future understanding will ensure that future policy is based on a shared understanding of local economic challenges and priorities, and thus Adding Value enable better economic interventions and This Assessment will add value by better spatial prioritisation of investment. underpinning many key strategies, actions, plans and policies that are currently being The previous Government issued guidance developed in Northamptonshire by a to Local Authorities in April 2010 which set range of organisations. These include: out the core objectives for an Economic Assessment. Whilst the guidance has • The Northamptonshire Arc which sets subsequently been revoked by the new out the strategic context for future Coalition administration, the ‘duty’ to planning and investment decisions undertake an Assessment remains. This has • The preparation of bids to the enabled the Northamptonshire Assessment Regional Growth Fund to be shaped to meet local needs. • Work on the review of the Core Strategy in North Northamptonshire and the emerging Core Strategy in West Northamptonshire which set out the spatial planning framework for the local areas • The emerging Worklessness Assessment
NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy | 7 Developing an evidence base updated regularly to ensure that it remains current. This can be viewed at In Northamptonshire, work on the www.northamptonshireobservatory.co.uk/LEA Local Economic Assessment was led by Northamptonshire County Council, working Regular updates will also be produced in close partnership with its economic and reported to partners on a quarterly development arm Northamptonshire basis. An annual update of the SWOT Enterprise Ltd, and with the involvement analysis will also be produced. of a wide range of partners. Structure of this Assessment The first stage in the process was developing a robust evidence base. A draft evidence This Assessment sets out a brief introduction base report was prepared and an extensive to Northamptonshire, both in terms of its consultation process was launched at an history and economic geography. A detailed Economic Development Event in June 2010 SWOT analysis of each theme is included. which was attended by more than 50 local The main body of the report is practitioners. The Report was made available based around 5 key themes: electronically and a number of contributions were received over the summer months from a 1. Labour market wide range of organisations. These have been 2. Business & Enterprise followed up and included in this document. 3. Land, Buildings & Infrastructure Since the production of the Draft Evidence 4. People & Communities Base Report, the Guidance for Local Economic 5. Environment Assessments has been revoked by the Each section sets out the current evidence. Coalition Government. This has meant that the prescriptive approach towards producing the Assessment has been removed, and that Next steps now both the process and the Assessment Whilst this Assessment represents a can be better shaped to meet local needs. ‘snapshot’ in time, the evidence base Given the rapid progress towards a Local remains current on the Northamptonshire Enterprise Partnership, the production of Observatory website where the data tables this Assessment was seen as a key piece are updated when new data is available. of work to inform and influence emerging Focussed updates of the Assessment will also proposals. The production of the Assessment be produced on a quarterly basis, reporting has therefore been accelerated. Responses on updated information and examining to the draft evidence base and the issues specific current issues in more detail. These emerging from it have been considered updates will be reported to partners and and shaped into the Assessment. will be available to download from the The evidence base continues to be developed Northamptonshire Observatory website. on the Northamptonshire Observatory website. The SWOT analysis will be updated annually Whilst this Assessment represents a ‘snapshot’ taking account of the updated evidence base. position, the underlying evidence base is
8 | NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy A Northamptonshire Profile • It is the home of British Motorsport and the location of the only UK F1 Grand Prix. Northamptonshire is a traditional English It has 3 major racing venues; Silverstone, county, home to some of the most beautiful Rockingham and Santa Pod, is home countryside in the country. It is a county of to more than 200 major motorsport distinction with a unique environment in which companies employing over 6,000 people to work and live with a strong sense of place. with an annual turnover of £600 million; It has much to offer as a location: • The County is strategically located with fast access to major road, rail • It is vibrant location for study with a and air networks and within 2 hour strong educational offering provided by the drive of 75% of UK’s population. 50 University of Northampton and the Colleges minutes from London St Pancras and of Moulton, Tresham and Northampton; Eurostar connections [Map INT1]; • It is a prosperous, dynamic, exciting location for business; with 25% lower operating costs than the rest of the South East;
Map Key
Towns SHEFFIELD AND LEEDS NORTH AND NORTHEAST PORTS Railway Stations Railway Links M1 A1(M) Northamptonshire Biodiversity Corridor
Derby
MML A43 Nottingham East Midlands Stamford
A1(M) Leicester A43 A6 Market Birmingham Eurohub Harborough Peterborough Corby Birmingham M1 International A1(M) M6 A14 WCML Thrapston Rugby Kettering Rugby Huntingdon D.I.R.F.T. Coventry A43 A14 A14 Long Buckby Wellingborough A1(M) M45 A45 Rushden M11 Northampton A45 Felixstowe M40 A428 Bedford Cambridge Harwick Towcester MML A6 Banbury M1 A5 A421 A1(M) M11 A43
Brackley Milton Keynes King’s Sutton London Stansted Luton Luton Airport Parkway CHILTERN LINE WCML M1
London St.Pancras Bicester Marylebone London Heathrow Oxford London Southampton Euston London Heathrow Waterloo London Gatwick London Eurostar Ashford Eurostar
Dover
Map INT1 | Northamptonshire’s strategic location
NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy | 9 • It is a first choice, quality destination for Lawrence Washington, seven times Great visitors seeking space to breathe; only an Grandfather of George Washington, and hour from London yet situated in the very Althorp House, home to the Spencer family middle of prime English countryside; for nearly 500 years which became the focus • It is a place of vast scenic beauty, of world attention following the death of yet underneath the peaceful surface Diana, Princess of Wales in September 1997. bubbles the excitement and variety Northamptonshire is famous for its to see and do including a strong shoemaking heritage. The industry began cultural and sporting offer; and in the county in 1202 and continues • Northamptonshire has a rich and fascinating to this day. Northampton Museum heritage; with a wonderful jigsaw of has the largest collection of historical historic sites connected with William boots and shoes in the world. the Conqueror, the Civil War, the British roots of America, Medieval kingdoms and The county also has a strong reputation for places that have inspired literature. sports. Northampton is home to county cricket Heritage, Culture and Environment the Saints Rugby Club and Northampton In terms of its heritage, and environment, Town Football Club. Northamptonshire’s Northamptonshire has been described as one motorsport portfolio includes: Formula 1 of England’s most beautiful and undiscovered constructors, several world class racing teams, counties. From the historic county town of the only Grade 1 motorsport circuit in the Northampton, a number of market towns UK (Silverstone), the only ‘oval’ motorsport and villages, the county has much to offer circuit in the UK (Rockingham), the premier both its residents and visitors alike. In UK drag racing strip (Santa Pod), the largest addition to the gently rolling countryside, number of international and national Northamptonshire is home to 157 parks and motorsport events in the country, including open spaces, including The Royal Forest of a F1 World Championship Grand Prix. Rockingham, a medieval hunting forest. Strategic context The location of Northamptonshire at the heart Northamptonshire is located at the centre of of England has often put it at the centre of England. It is a dynamic county, undergoing momentous national events, such as the Battle many changes. It is already the fastest of Northampton at Delapre and the Battle of growing county in England in terms of Naseby, which in June 1645 was the decisive population and traffic growth. Since 2001 the battle of the English Civil War. It was Robert population has grown by almost 8% compared Catesby, a Northamptonshire gentleman, to the national growth of just over 3%. who first devised a plan (the Gunpowder Current plans provide for housing growth Plot) to blow up the House of Lords on the to continue, and indeed increase in scale. occasion of the state opening of parliament. Despite the abolition of the Regional There are a range of nationally renowned Spatial Strategy and the housing targets, visitor attractions, including 78 Derngate, it is clear that high levels of growth, Northampton - the only Charles Rennie both in housing and employment will Mackintosh designed house outside Scotland, continue in Northamptonshire. The Royal and Derngate Theatres, Sulgrave Manor near Towcester built in 1539 by
10 | NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy Economic Geography Housing market areas Following work done by the Regional Assembly Northamptonshire is considered to be a in 2005, Northamptonshire was considered sensible Functional Economic Market Area to contain two Housing Market Areas with (FEMA) as it has a fairly compact functional significant overlaps: one covering the north economic geography, both in terms of of the county and one covering the west labour, travel to work, retail catchment of the county. More recent research by the and housing markets which are focussed National Housing Planning and Advisory on the major towns of Northampton, Unit (November 2010) has concluded that, Corby, Kettering and Wellingborough. based on both migration and commuting flows that the majority of the county forms Much of the economic activity in a single housing market. Small parts of East Northamptonshire is concentrated in a broad Northamptonshire look east to a Peterborough corridor running approximately south-west Housing Market Area and small parts of to north-east from Northampton, known as South Northamptonshire look south west the Northamptonshire Arc. It encompasses to the Oxfordshire Housing Market Area. all the larger towns including Daventry and Towcester in the west and south, Kettering and Corby in the north and Wellingborough, Rushden, Oundle and Thrapston in the east. This corridor is the main focus of existing economic activity, principal road arteries and rail interchanges, and a significant proportion of the new housing and other development. The corridor also includes a significant stretch of the River Nene and its tributaries and the important habitats that they support.
Map INT3 | 2001-based Travel to work areas, ONS
Map INT2 | Geography of housing market areas, Communities and Local Government, November 2010
NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy | 11
Travel to work areas authority areas of Kettering, Corby and part The most widely accepted approach to of East Northamptonshire). The eastern identifying FEMAs is by reference to Travel part of East Northamptonshire is within the to Work Areas (TTWAs), which are relatively Peterborough travel to work area, and the self contained, internally contiguous labour western part of South Northamptonshire is market areas. A commonly used definition within the Banbury travel to work area. is that: of the resident economically active population at least 75 per cent work in the Retail catchment area; and of all those working in the area An EMDA commissioned retail and leisure at least 75 per cent also live in the area. catchment study, undertaken by Experian reported on both the retail and leisure Northamptonshire contains two travel to work catchments of the main towns in the region. areas; (1) Northampton and Wellingborough (which covers the local authority areas of The retail catchment maps are shown Northampton, Wellingborough, Daventry below, and are segmented according to and South Northamptonshire), and (2) how important each area is to the centre. Kettering and Corby (which covers the local They are colour coded to show the relative
Retail Shopper Catchment Definition for Corby Retail Shopper Catchment Definition for Northampton East Midlands Region
Primary (0% up to 50%)
Secondary (50% up to 80%)
Tertiary (80% up to 90%)
Retail Shopper Catchment Definition for Kettering Retail Shopper Catchment Definition for Wellingborough
Map INT4 | Retail catchment, ‘Retail and leisure flows in the East Midlands, EMDA
12 | NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy penetration of different areas. The inner band Leisure catchment (primary) represents the area with the highest Leisure catchments tend to be more localised penetration, which 50% of the shoppers than retail flows. The maps below are based on come from. The middle band (secondary) Experian’s ‘Big Night Out’ survey and show that shows the next strongest penetration and leisure flows are more localised in Corby and represents the next 30% of shoppers. Kettering, reflecting the reduced leisure offer. The influence of Northampton is far wider, The four major towns in the county: and indeed in regional terms is only second Northampton, Corby, Kettering and to Nottingham in terms of geographic reach. Wellingborough draw the majority of people from within the county boundaries, with small exceptions to the north of Corby and to the south towards Bedford.
Leisure Shopper Catchment Definition for Corby Leisure Shopper Catchment Definition for Corby
Leisure Shopper Catchment Definition for Kettering East Midlands Region
Primary (0% up to 50%)
Secondary (50% up to 80%)
Tertiary (80% up to 90%)
Map INT5 | Leisure catchment, ‘Retail and leisure flows in the East Midlands, EMDA
NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy | 13 ‘raise innovation levels through improved skills, stronger research and development capabilities, encouraging more innovation in science and technology’
14 | NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy 2 Swot Analysis
Labour market
Strengths Weaknesses • High economic activity and employment rates across the county • 42% of employees are in higher level occupations which is • Diverse and flexible skill base below the national average and that of surrounding areas • Comparably young and mobile labour force • Low demand for skills from employers means a significant number of people are underemployed. • Relatively low unemployment • A low skills profile with a below national/regional High concentration of very high skilled engineers • average proportions of residents with NVQ3 and including world leading skills in the motorsport NVQ4+ qualifications and an above national average and high performance engineering sector proportion of people with no qualifications (15%) Concentration of knowledge and skills in logistics • • Levels of self-employment are low due to the county’s strategic location • Average earnings are below the national High quality further and higher education sector with a • average with wide variations track record of innovation and collaborative working • Growing number of long term unemployed particularly National leading education and training offers • younger people and concentrated in certain areas including waste management, leather technology and fashion at University of Northampton • Lack of take up of apprenticeships by young people. • Nationally acknowledged offer at Moulton College • Poor perception of the opportunities available in key sectors including in land based industries and sports science such as manufacturing/engineering and logistics. • National college of motorsport provided by Tresham College at Silverstone • Close proximity to a number of world class universities including Cambridge, Oxford and Warwick • Improving school results • Evidence of some good practice between local business and schools • Competitive labour costs in comparison with London and the South East • Strong interest in apprenticeships from employers • Construction Futures - a pioneering approach to increasing work based training using planning and procurement processes
NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy | 15 Opportunities Threats • Capitalise and promote established training offers in • Graduate leakage to other areas relation to growing sectors such as green technologies • Increased levels of unemployment and growing • Ensure the training offer can meet the changing needs by trend in worklessness in young people encouraging greater involvement from local businesses • With an ageing workforce, high levels of replacement in developing future skills and training offers demand not being met in manufacturing/engineering • Closer collaboration between further and higher education providers within the county to strengthen the quality and range of training on offer • With greater flexibility in further education budgets, encourage partnership working with further education providers to shape provision to meet the needs of individuals, employers and the economy • Increase working between the University of Northampton and surrounding universities to share best practice • Promote and focus on the business benefits of partnership working with the education sector • Work with employers to embed employability skills across the education curriculum (11-19) • Raise aspirations of young people by providing timely, relevant and personal careers advice that includes the complete range of choices and progression routes available • Ensure that graduates have the skills necessary to meet the needs of the local economy • More collaborative working to promote apprenticeships as a positive career choice to prospective trainees and the wider public • Develop practical solutions to reduce the risk and remove barriers to encourage employers to take on an apprentice • Promote the business case for linking skills development with improved productivity
16 | NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy Business and enterprise
Strengths Weaknesses • Strong and growing economy worth £13.5bn in 2007 and • Relatively low profile for some key growing with the potential to increase to over £20bn by 2021 sectors e.g. pharmaceuticals • Economy not reliant on one sector • Relatively low levels of business starts ups • Relatively low reliance on public sector • High concentrations of activity in relatively employment in most parts of the county lower value-added sectors and jobs • Presence of leading world brand names including • Poor access to superfast broadband for Barclaycard, Nationwide, Weetabix, and Carlsberg businesses in some parts of the county • Very strong business survival rates - 93% of • Although there is a good level of employment floorspace firms survive beyond their first year the location, size and quality does not allow for the • Established location for international flexibility and choice that businesses require inward investment by business • Location at the heart of Motorsport valley® which is a world leading concentration of high performance engineering and motorsport related businesses • Leading national centre for distribution and logistics and acknowledged as the focus of the Golden Triangle • Established local business support offer • Developing connections between local education and business around enterprising skills • Network of enterprise and innovation centres in the county • Existing private public sector partnership with a strong track record (Northamptonshire Enterprise Ltd) • Appetite of the County Council to promote the prosperity agenda and invest in business and enterprise
NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy | 17 Opportunities Threats • Creation of a new Northamptonshire Enterprise Partnership • Uncertain economic recovery Board with enhanced business representation providing • Impact of cuts in public sector budgets a platform for direct dialogue with Government and able and spending in the private sector to shape and inform local public sector investment • Pressure to reduce local public sector investment in • Look to raise innovation levels through improved skills, economic development due to other budget pressures stronger research and development capabilities, encouraging • Cut backs in the national business support offer more innovation in science and technology and driving particularly in relation to start-up support forward the successful commercialisation of ideas • Abolition of the Regional Development Develop Enterprise Hub concept, building on • Agency and the services its provides existing strengths in certain sectors • Build on existing strengths in our priority sectors • Develop low carbon economy building on existing strengths in this sector • Strengthen relationship with the Government sponsored Technology & Strategy Board (TSB) which is responsible for technology and innovation and push for a TSB-sponsored technology and innovation centre in the county • Develop an Innovation Framework for the county which sets out and distinguishes the county’s offer and work with partners to take the innovation agenda forward • Enhance the local innovation and enterprise network building on the existing centres at Corby, Wellingborough, Northampton, Daventry and Silverstone • Establish the iCon at Daventry as the leading national centre for innovation in sustainable construction related businesses and a catalyst for growth in the off-site construction sector • Liaison with the Freight Transport Association to promote innovative and lower carbon distribution and logistics • Develop inward investment offer with UKTI • Strengthen trade and other links with the fast growing economies • Build on the work within schools to embed enterprise skills as part of the curriculum to improve employability and enterprising capabilities • Develop enterprise training as part of the curriculum in vocational subjects that could lead to self employment • Pilot and establish an Enterprise Zone in the county and introduce a new targeted Business Incentives and Investment Scheme • Create an environment for the development and support of new Social Enterprises • Develop local supply chains • Promote awareness of public sector procurement opportunities to local businesses and encourage inclusion of environmental, social and economic benefits in the procurement process • Add value to the national business support offer • Introduce a Business Angels scheme providing mentoring, support and equity finance • Capitalise on the potential in the renewable / low carbon energy sector market
18 | NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy Land Buildings and Infrastructure
Strengths Weaknesses • Varied spatial pattern with a major county town surrounded by • Lack of a major national scale commercial, a mixture of medium and small sized towns, many with historic cultural and retail offer core areas, attractive villages and varied countryside captured • Lack of prime town centre offices especially for large users in a single spatial planning concept ‘the Northamptonshire Arc’ • Low demand for speculative commercial • Established track record of growth and development development especially in the town centres • Creation of a Northamptonshire Enterprise • Issues of housing affordability in some rural parts of the county Partnership to help shape direction, agree investment • Absence of an adopted planning framework priorities and champion the areas interests covering the whole county – there is one for the • Strong pipeline of major regeneration and development North and in development for the West schemes (many with planning permission) in a variety • Restricted access to primary road links due to of locations and both town centre and edge of town movement constraints at the M1/M6/A14 junction Keen interest in the area from major private sector developers • • Increased reliability issues on the strategic road • Existence of the County Council’s Fit for Market programme network and particularly the A43/A45 corridors which offers pump priming to the private sector for commercial and on the A14 around Kettering development through loans, joint ventures or small scale grants • Lack of orbital connectively around the • Availability of employment sites in close proximity west and north of Northampton to key local and national distribution networks • Weak orbital public transport connections around Northampton Strong demand for distribution and logistics space • • Limited public transport provision in • Adopted planning framework in place for the the rural areas inhibits access north of the county via a core spatial strategy • Lack of a local online travel information (which is currently under going a review) service for local businesses • Wide range and variety of housing • House prices are below the national average, though there are wide variations by district • Relatively low land prices compared to areas to the south • Strategic location with excellent road connections with the rest of the UK via the M1, M6, M40 and A14 • Direct access to the West Coast Main Line, Midland Main Line and Chiltern Line services and access to the East Coast Main Line via Peterborough • Introduction of real time public transport information in some towns • Recent investment in roads which will help to access new development and provide congestion busting measures on key junctions • Recent investment in many schools to improve the learning environment • Commitment to improve the Next Generation Broadband infrastructure countywide • Proactive public sector • A rich architectural heritage and cultural offer
NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy | 19 Opportunities Threats • Scope to promote low carbon housing and development • Viability issues block potential regeneration and in major regeneration and development schemes development schemes and/or create increased • Ability to use surplus public sector sites to stimulate pressure on existing infrastructure because of development and attract private sector investment via limited funding to invest in additional capacity the County Council’s Asset Utilisation Strategy • Other demands on public sector funding limits • Closer working with developers through the the scope for investment via the Fit for Market Fit for Market programme and other initiatives programme and other initiatives to pump prime to bring forward commercial space and bring forward commercial development • Develop high quality infrastructure, employment sites and • Lack of an infrastructure and space offer means premises for growth sectors building on county’s strengths that potential innovation and investment e.g. through innovation hubs such as the iCon at Daventry for opportunities are lost to other places sustainable construction, the University of Northampton for • Danger of a fragmented approach from the public sector creative industries, and Silverstone Circuit for high performance • Risk that a solely market led approach leads to engineering, motorsport and clean vehicle technologies short-termism and an over-supply of particular • Develop and promote a portfolio approach with readily available types of accommodation in some areas sites to attract inward investment including flagship town • Lack of high-quality commercial office floorspace, centre sites which will support wider regeneration activities particularly in Northampton town centre, may impact on • Encourage a move towards next generation attracting inward investment, retail and other activities distribution and logistics to maintain the areas • Lack of alternatives to the car means that access is competitive edge and reduce carbon emissions limited and congestion increased impacting on network • Press for innovative funding solutions to invest in improved reliability and bringing extra costs to businesses infrastructure including improvements to the strategic and local • Pressure from increasing road congestion is accelerated by road network, such as capturing and retaining business rates the economic recovery and this reduces the attractiveness • Work with other areas to press for improvements to of the area as a place to live, learn, live and invest key national economic arteries such as the A14 • Lack of leadership and action means that the area is • Develop package solutions for key economic arteries to reduce left behind as other places are better placed to secure congestion and improve reliability, safety and journey times inward investment and other opportunities • Make the case to Government and the train operating • Demographic change and the future need companies for faster and better rail connections to increase for alternatives to the private car the attractiveness of the area for new investment • Develop innovative and attractive mass transit and demand responsive options to help improve access and reduce congestion • Encourage the use of low carbon and clean vehicle technologies and the potential of related markets • Roll out leading edge Next Generation Broadband access across the county to help local businesses • Develop a ladder of accommodation to support business development from start-up through to large-scale investors, including incubation and grow on space, linking to business support opportunities and sector specific growth • Regenerate and re-use existing employment sites and industrial estates to encourage take up and focus development in key existing employment areas • Develop the Technology Realm concept to build on and create high value knowledge and innovation driven jobs through new models of innovative property solutions and services • Deliver Town Centre regeneration activities to provide a diverse range of uses to build on existing cultural and heritage assets
20 | NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy People and communities
Strengths Weaknesses • Attractiveness of the area as a place to live and move to • Increasingly ageing population in line with national trends • High population growth, double the national average, • Small pockets of deprivation across the and an increasingly diverse population county, concentrated in Northampton • Strong international economic migration bringing skilled workers • Wide variations in wealth/earnings between districts/areas • A relatively young population with much • Pockets of relatively high crime rates higher than average levels of children • Parts of the county e.g. Corby, have a poor health profile • The county has a whole has low rates of economically inactivity • Increasing rate of bankruptcies • Number of residents receiving benefits is • Increasing numbers of people claiming housing benefit below regional and national averages • Lack of availability of affordable credit • Generally good health profile • Strong sense of place both county and community • A variety of community offers from inner urban to deep rural
Opportunities Threats • Build on existing strengths and attractiveness of the area • Ability of public services to adapt and deal to people as a place to live, learn, visit and invest with growing and changing population • Encourage and increase multi agency working to develop practical • Large increases in the numbers of older people will have and effective solutions that support people to return to work a great impact on the provision of health care facilities • Help to ensure that all young people have the skills • Increasing birth rates will impact on the provision to succeed and maximise their potential of education facilities and school place planning • Develop competitive edge provided by a relatively young population • Danger of increased worklessness • Encourage healthy lifestyles • More people working part time or on • Promote inclusive and safe communities reduced hours – affecting wage levels • Build on the existing expertise and partnerships to develop the opportunities for community led enterprises
NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy | 21 Environment
Strengths Weaknesses • Wealth of natural assets and habitats • Major loss of natural habitats in recent years • Recycling rates are amongst the highest in the country • Carbon emissions are relatively high across the county • Commitment to reduce the amount of waste going into landfill with more than 30% of emissions from road transport • Significant work has already been completed to identify • Relatively slow uptake of low carbon technologies by businesses past and future water-related issues including flood risk • Climate change and low carbon strategy in place with the resource to implement actions • Work is underway to develop a business case for creating a natural environment which is more resilient to the effects of climate change • Commitment to develop low carbon transport solutions • Commitment to implement technologically diverse mix of renewable energy generation projects • A UK Centre of Excellence in Sustainable Wastes Management and resource efficiency • Established environmental business forums to communicate low carbon message to business community
22 | NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy Opportunities Threats • Massive scope through planning policy and other • Focus on the economic recovery shifts attention away initiatives to encourage and bring forward innovative from the need to address climate change agenda design for new buildings which reduce carbon • Effects of climate change – failure to act on emissions emissions and increase overall energy efficiency reductions will result in increasing CRC (carbon • Development of Local Flood Risk Management tax) bill for large organisations; £12 per tonne of Strategy and the requirement for sustainable CO2 = £720,000 bill in 2012 for NCC alone drainage systems in all new development • Lack of major environmental designations leaves • Scope to promote Northamptonshire as the national lead for door open for development in sensitive areas low carbon-related technologies and sustainable construction • Increases in household numbers and in business premises will • Identification of a vanguard low carbon enterprise zone with increase pressure on the environment and carbon emissions incentives to encourage innovation and clean technologies • Demand for natural resources e.g. sand and gravel, • Potential to offer incentives and priority access impacting on important natural habitats to clean technology vehicles to promote the • Economic recovery will increase waste generation environmental technology sector • Intensive agriculture impacting on natural habitats Promotion of low carbon waste technologies and • • ‘Energy Security’ reducing annually due to national solutions to both households and businesses energy crisis – energy securitisation via low carbon • Establishment of a revenue generating renewable energy localisation is required. 2030 energy gap etc energy/energy efficiency delivery vehicle – large scale opportunity and revenue benefit has been identified • Scope to promote recreational opportunities which complement the environment and increase enjoyment and appreciation of conservation • Predicted growth in the renewable energy market and scope to exploit local opportunities including the growth and use of bio fuels and related technology • New habitat creation through encouraging inclusion in development planning. The protection of existing habitats • Establishment of a strategic biodiversity corridor focused on the Nene Valley • Scope to encourage community led activity to improve the local environment • Promote opportunities for significant tree planting activity including in relation with new development • Sensitive agriculture supporting, creating and nurturing natural habitats • Promotion of low carbon initiatives within the public sector • Build on existing strengths and partnerships to promote resource efficiency and low carbon measures to support the sustainability agenda • Develop initiatives to encourage investment in environmental technology companies and their products • Continue to promote initiatives to minimise waste from households to further reduce levels of waste • Promote use of local food, materials and energy where possible including local supply chains • Work in partnership with businesses to promote environmental and social responsibility • To become a leading county in electric car charging infrastructure
NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy | 23 ‘World leading skills in the motorsport and high performance engineering sector’
24 | NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy 3 Labour Market
This section of the Evidence Base on the people being more likely to be in full- labour market in Northamptonshire will time education or, indeed, NEETS (Not in look at employment, occupational structure, Employment, Education or Training) and are earnings, skills and unemployment. therefore not part of the formal job market. Over all age bands, Northamptonshire has Employment higher activity rates than those found regionally or nationally and these vary Economic Activity Rate from 51.8% in the 16-19 age category to Northamptonshire has a very high economic a high of 90% amongst 35-49 year olds. activity rate1 of 84% (in 2009) which is above both the regional (80.9%) and England (79%) Employment Rate averages. In fact, of all the comparator areas Another way to look at an area’s level looked at in this analysis, only Milton Keynes of overall employment is to look at its (84.9%) and Central Bedfordshire (84.4%) Employment Rate2. Northampton has a have higher activity rates. There are, however, high employment rate of 78.3% (in 2009), noticeable differences by district with Daventry which is significantly higher than the having the highest economic activity rate corresponding regional average of 75.2% of 86.8% and Corby the lowest (79.4%) [all or the England average of 74%. Compared figures are for 2009]. Notwithstanding this, to the 119 upper tier local authority areas all of Northamptonshire’s districts are above (excluding London), Northamptonshire the England average of 79% see Appendices. is ranked in the upper quartile (in 23rd position) with an employment rate just over Both male and female activity rates in 5 percentage points lower than the top Northamptonshire are above the regional and ranked authority Bracknell Forest (83.6%). England averages – Northamptonshire: males (89.2%), females (78.3%); East Midlands: Once again, both male and female employment males (84.7%), females (76.6%); England: rates in Northamptonshire are above the males (83.7%), females (74%) [all figures are East Midlands and England averages – for 2009]. All Northamptonshire’s districts Northamptonshire: males 82.3%, females exceed the England average for male activity 73.9%; East Midlands: males 78.2%, females rates, with Northampton recording the highest 71.8%; England: males 77.2%, females rate of 91.4% and Wellingborough the lowest 69.3% [all figures are for 2009]. By district, with a still impressive 86.8%. Daventry has male employment rates range from a low the highest female activity rate of 84.6% of 78.6% in Wellingborough to a high of and Corby the lowest at 69.1% (significantly 87.6% in South Northamptonshire, with below the regional and England averages). female employment rates ranging from 61% in Corby to 77.6% in Daventry. Economic activity rates also vary considerably by age. For example the activity rates of people aged under 21 are much lower than those of people aged 21-49 (who are in their prime working age) due to young 1 A person is economically active if they are either employed or unemployed in a particular period. Economically active people supply, or want to supply, their labour to produce 2 The Employment Rate is defined as the percentage goods and services within the production boundary. of the labour force that is employed.
NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy | 25 Table LM1 | Northamptonshire Employment (2008) Employment by Sector by Broad Sector, Annual Business Inquiry Northamptonshire has an employee workforce of 315,000 people broken into No. Of % of Total the following broad sector groupings Sector Employees Employment (2008 figures, see Table LM1). Agriculture and fishing 900 0.3 By size, the largest sectors in Energy and water 1000 0.3 Northamptonshire are all service Manufacturing 46,600 14.8 sectors led by Distribution, Hotels and Construction 12,900 4.1 Restaurants closely followed by Public Distribution, hotels and restaurants 76,000 24.1 Administration and Banking / Finance. Transport and communications 25,700 8.2 The overall trend of employment by broad Banking, finance and insurance, etc 67,300 21.3 sector between 1998 and 2008 can be seen Public administration, education & health 70,800 22.5 in Figure LM1, with the most noticeable trend Other services 13,900 4.4 being the increase in services employment and the decline in manufacturing employment. Total 315,100 100.0 In 2008 service sectors employed over 253,000 people, which is 4 in 5 of the overall Northamptonshire workforce, and this has grown significantly over the last decade (by over 74,000 jobs). In 1998 only around two-thirds of the workforce were employed in services (179,000 jobs). Services employment in Northamptonshire (80.5%) is above the regional average (77.8%) but below the England average (83.8% - all 2008 figures) - see Table LM2.
26 | NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy 80,000 75,000 70,000 65,000 60,000 55,000 50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000
Number of Employees 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Agriculture and Distribution, hotels and Other services (SIC O,P,Q) fishing (SIC A,B) restaurants (SIC G,H) Manufacturing (SIC D) Energy and water Construction (SIC F) (SICC,E) Public administration, Transport and education & health Banking, finance and communications (SIC I) (SIC L, M, N) insurance, etc (SIC J,K)
Figure LM1 | Employment Trends by Broad Sector 1998-2008, Annual Business Inquiry
Table LM2 | Services and Manufacturing Employment 1998-2008, Annual Business Inquiry
Services 1998 2008
employment % of total employment employment % of total employment Northamptonshire 179,400 67.8 253,700 80.5 East Midlands 1,200,400 68.5 1,472,300 77.8 England 16,362,000 77.3 19,346,800 83.8
Manufacturing 1998 2008 employment % of total employment employment % of total employment
Northamptonshire 70,700 26.7 46,600 14.8 East Midlands 418,500 23.9 280,800 14.8 England 3,504,700 16.6 2,337,100 10.1
NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy | 27 Manufacturing, on the other hand has seen there is an above average concentration - below a large fall in jobs in Northamptonshire over 1 a lower than average concentration. Applying the same period declining from 70,700 jobs in this analysis to the Northamptonshire economy, 1998 to only 46,600 in 2008, a loss of 24,100 it is apparent that the County has an above jobs. In 2008, manufacturing employment in national average concentration of employment Northamptonshire is the same percentage in a number of manufacturing sectors (such as of overall employment as the regional tanning / leather industries, wearing apparel, average (14.8%) but still significantly higher food and beverages, basic metals, paper / pulp than the average for England (10.1%). production, motor vehicles) and in air and land transport. However Northamptonshire At the more disaggregated sub-group level, has a below average level of employment in a between 1998 and 2008, the most significant number of key service sectors including retail, growth has been in Business Support activities, health and social work, education, hotels / Transport / Storage, Public Administration and restaurants, real estate, R & D and insurance Education (classes K, I, L and M in Table LM3 ). and pension funding). The full Location Location Quotients Quotient analysis can be seen in Appendices. Location Quotients (LQs) are a way of examining the specialisation of economic activity in an area. The ratio of sectoral employment in an area compared to the level of total employment in an area is compared to the corresponding national position and a ratio of local concentration of employment by sector can be compared to the national position. A location quotient of 1 means that employment in the sector locally is in the same proportion to the UK average for that sector. Above 1 means that
28 | NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy Table LM3 | Percentage Share of All Employment by Sector at Sub Group Level 1998 and 2008 Compared. Northamptonshire, East Midlands and England, Annual Business Inquiry
Industry Northamptonshire East Midlands England 1998 2008 1998 2008 1998 2008 A : Agriculture, hunting and forestry 0.2 0.3 1.5 1.2 1.0 0.9 B : Fishing # 0.0 * 0.0 * * C : Mining and quarrying 0.1 # 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 D : Manufacturing 26.7 14.8 23.9 14.8 16.6 10.1 E : Electricity, gas and water supply # # 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 F : Construction 4.9 4.1 5.1 5.2 4.3 4.6 G : Wholesale & retail trade; repair of motor vehicles, motorcycles, personal & HH goods 18.9 19.1 17.7 17.5 18.0 16.8 H : Hotels and restaurants 5.8 5.1 5.6 5.8 6.3 6.7 I : Transport, storage and communication 6.1 8.2 4.7 5.5 6.0 6.0 J : Financial intermediation 3.5 3.3 2.3 2.3 4.4 4.1 K : Real estate, renting and business activities 12.1 18.0 11.3 15.5 14.9 18.7 L : Public administration and defence; compulsory social security 3.2 4.5 4.3 5.1 5.3 5.2 M : Education 4.7 7.7 8.5 9.2 7.7 9.4 N : Health and social work 9.5 10.3 10.4 12.3 10.1 11.8 O : Other community, social and personal service activities 4.0 4.4 3.6 4.5 4.6 5.3 Notes: P : Private households with ~ not available from NOMIS, employed persons ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ * less than 0.05%, Q : Extra-territorial # are confidential and cannot be disclosed organisation and bodies ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy | 29 Key Sectors variation by district with Corby having the lowest proportion of public sector employees Public / Private Sector Employment (9.1%) and Kettering the highest (22.7%). Northamptonshire has a comparatively Apart from Kettering, all Northamptonshire’s low level of public sector employment districts have below regional and England (15% or 47,300 employees) compared to average levels of public sector employment. the regional (19.7%) and England averages (19.5%) – [all figures are for 2008 and from There is also a wide variation of public sector the Government’s preferred source of public employment by comparator area which sector employment data - the National ranges from a low of 12.3% in Milton Keynes Statistics Public Sector Employment (PSE) to a high of 21.8% in Bedford [Table LM4]. series]. However, this masks considerable
Table LM4 | Overall Public and Private Sector Employment in 2008 - Northamptonshire, East Midlands and England, Annual Business Inquiry
Private Public Public Total 2008 Private (%) (Number) (Number) (%) (Number) Northamptonshire 267,700 85.0 47,300 15.0 315,100 Corby 26,800 90.5 2,700 9.1 29,600 Daventry 32,900 88.4 4,300 11.6 37,200 East Northamptonshire 24,100 90.3 2,600 9.7 26,700 Kettering 28,300 77.3 8,300 22.7 36,600 Northampton 103,600 82.6 21,800 17.4 125,400 South Northamptonshire 24,300 87.4 3,500 12.6 27,800 Wellingborough 27,700 87.1 4,100 12.9 31,800
Leicestershire 233,700 86.1 37,600 13.8 271,500 Warwickshire 217,100 85.8 36,000 14.2 253,100 Bedford 55,100 78.2 15,400 21.8 70,500 Central Bedfordshire 71,200 84.4 13,200 15.6 84,400 Buckinghamshire 178,400 86.1 28,800 13.9 207,100 Milton Keynes 125,000 87.7 17,600 12.3 142,600 Cambridgeshire 222,800 81.1 51,900 18.9 274,700 Oxfordshire 203,900 80.7 49,000 19.4 252,700 England 18,456,800 80.5 4,471,200 19.5 22,929,100 East Midlands 1,506,000 80.3 368,800 19.7 1,874,900
30 | NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy High Performance Engineering / Motorsports Table LM5 | Employment in High Performance Engineering and The County has a world reputation as a leader Motorsports (% of all Employment) – Northampton, Districts and in high performance engineering and research. Comparator Areas, 2008 (Annual Business Inquiry employee analysis Indeed, the world body for motorsport, the FIA, recognises this area as ‘motorsport valley®’. This is largely as a result of its rich heritage, the High Performance location of Silverstone which is the home of the 2008 Engineering % Motorsports % British Grand Prix and the quality and quantity Northamptonshire 3.1 1.0 of world class engineers based in the area. Corby 3.0 0.8 The motorsport cluster in the area includes Daventry 8.8 2.6 major engineering suppliers such as Cosworth East Northamptonshire 6.2 1.1 in Northampton and Mercedes-Benz HPE Kettering 2.4 0.6 and Imor Engineering at Brixworth, F1 teams such as Force India located at Silverstone and Northampton 1.2 0.5 Mercedes GP at Brackley, and other racing South Northamptonshire 2.7 0.9 tracks such as Rockingham and Santa Pod. Wellingborough 2.8 1.9
In relation to high performance engineering, South East 2.9 0.3 3.1% of employees in Northamptonshire East Midlands 3.8 0.7 work in the sector which is above the England 2.9 0.6 England level (2.9%) but less than the East Midlands (3.8%). The sector is particularly concentrated in Daventry (8.8%) and East Northamptonshire (6.2%). Compared to surrounding areas, Cambridgeshire (6.6%), Warwickshire (5.5%) and Oxfordshire (4.6%) all have a higher percentage of employment in the sector compared to Northamptonshire. Northamptonshire has an above average concentration of employment in motorsports with particularly high concentrations in Daventry and Wellingborough. (see Table LM5).
NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy | 31 Table LM6 | Overall employment in Logistics 2008 (% Distribution and Logistics of all Employment). Northamptonshire, Districts and The strategic location and access to both Comparator Areas, 2008, Annual Business Inquiry national and international markets is reflected in the importance of the logistics sector and the concentration of national distribution centres and major rail freight terminals. Many of these are clustered in and around the Daventry International Rail Freight Terminal (DIRFT), Eurohub at Corby and the key road networks – M1, M6, A14, A43 and A45. The area is also home to the Chartered Institute of Logistics and Transport.
Area Road/Rail/Water/Air & Freight Transport % % Warehousing & Courier Postal Services % Total 6.1% of the overall employed workforce in Northamptonshire 3.6 2.2 0.4 6.1 Northamptonshire works in the logistics Corby 6.7 4.4 0.1 11.1 sector compared to 3.2% in the East Midlands Daventry 9.4 3.3 0.1 12.8 and 2.2% in England. Moreover, by building East Northamptonshire 4.0 1.0 0.5 5.5 on its strengths, the county is well placed to Kettering 1.0 1.0 0.3 2.2 see further growth and development in the sector. By district, the sector is an especially Northampton 2.4 1.3 0.6 4.3 large employer in Daventry (12.8%) and South Northamptonshire 2.1 3.6 0.1 5.7 Corby (11.1%). Both Daventry and Corby Wellingborough 2.5 3.2 0.6 6.2 have high concentrations of employment in both ‘Road Freight Transport’ (Daventry – Leicestershire 1.8 2.1 0.8 4.7 9.4%; Corby 6.7%) and ‘Warehousing’ (Corby Buckinghamshire 0.6 0.5 0.5 1.6 4.4%; Daventry 3.3%) – see Table LM6. Milton Keynes 2.7 3.1 0.3 6.1 Looking at the comparator areas, Milton Oxfordshire 0.8 0.5 0.2 1.5 Keynes (6.1%), Warwickshire (5.9%) and Bedford 2.7 0.5 0.2 3.4 Leicestershire (4.7%) all have above average Cambridgeshire 1.2 0.8 0.2 2.1 regional and England levels of employment in Central Bedfordshire 2.0 0.9 0.4 3.4 the sector which is to be expected as they each Warwickshire 2.4 2.2 1.2 5.9 have similar advantages to Northamptonshire in relation to location and motorway access. England 1.0 0.9 0.3 2.2 East Midlands 1.8 1.1 0.3 3.2 South East 0.8 0.8 0.2 1.9
32 | NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy ‘Knowledge Economy’ Employment Table LM7 | ‘Knowledge Economy’ Employment (% Almost 2 in 5 employees (38.6%) in of all Employment). Northamptonshire, Districts and Northamptonshire work in sectors that can be Comparator Areas, 2008, Annual Business Inquiry characterised as being part of the ‘Knowledge Economy’ (defined as including High-Tech Manufacturing; Knowledge-Based Services; and Customer Services). This is below the England level (42.1%) but higher than the regional position (36%) – see Table LM7. By district, Northampton has the highest proportion of employment in the ‘Knowledge Economy’ (44%) with Corby having the least
‘Knowledge Economy’ 2008 Customer Services % High Tech Manufacturing % Knowledge based services % % Total (28.6%). However, many of the surrounding comparator areas most notably Milton Northamptonshire 16.7 2.4 19.5 38.6 Keynes (48.5%) have a higher percentage Corby 13.9 3.9 10.8 28.6 of ‘Knowledge Economy’ employment. Daventry 14.9 1.5 18.8 35.2 East Northamptonshire 17.1 0.8 11.2 29.1 Kettering 19.6 3.2 12.2 35.0 Northampton 15.8 1.8 26.4 44.0 South Northamptonshire 21.0 2.1 18.1 41.2 Wellingborough 16.2 4.6 16.2 37.0
Leicestershire 19.8 1.7 15.8 37.3 Warwickshire 19.1 1.2 18.8 39.1 Bedford 18.6 2.0 16.3 36.9 Central Bedfordshire 20.9 1.8 16.6 39.3 Cambridgeshire 15.5 2.3 20.7 38.5 Milton Keynes 19.3 1.2 28.0 48.5 Buckinghamshire 20.0 2.9 22.3 45.2 Oxfordshire 18.9 3.4 20.8 43.1 South East 20.4 2.0 21.7 44.1 East Midlands 18.4 1.8 15.8 36.0 England 19.9 2.0 20.2 42.1
NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy | 33 Tourism Visitor spending directly provided 10,296 FTE In 2009, tourism generated £838.3m for (full-time equivalent) jobs in Northamptonshire the Northamptonshire economy (including in 2009. Table LM10 right shows that one in both direct and indirect revenue) and three of these jobs (34%) are supported by attracted over 19 million visitors. Nearly expenditure on shopping and a further 28% a third (31%) of this revenue was spent are maintained by expenditure on food and in Northampton and a further 15% in drink. Indirect and induced spending supports South Northamptonshire. [Table LM8] a further 2,756 jobs, bringing the total number of jobs attributable to tourism to 13,052. Key tourist assets in the county include Silverstone, Althorp, Wicksteed Park and a large However, at county level, Northamptonshire’s number of historic buildings and country parks, tourism industry is the smallest in the East Midlands region measured In 2009, day visitors contributed 59% of both in terms of visitor spend and the revenue generated compared to 41% employment. [Tables LM11 and 12] for all staying visitors. [Table LM9]
Table LM8 | Total Tourist spend by District (£’s millions) Table LM9 | 2009 Tourism Revenue by 2008 and 2009 Compared, East Midlands Tourism Visitor Type, East Midlands Tourism
% change Total £ % of District 2008 (£) 2009 (£) 2008/9 million overnight Corby 72.18 75.57 5 Serviced 146.72 43% Accommodation Daventry 119.30 116.63 -2 Non-Serviced East Northamptonshire 74.57 76.21 2 92.86 27% Accommodation Kettering 100.76 103.15 2 Staying with Friends 100.76 30% Northampton 258.96 257.23 -1 & Relatives South Northamptonshire 127.92 128.95 1 All Staying Visitors 340.35 100% Wellingborough 80.71 80.58 0 Day Visitors 497.99 Northamptonshire 834.40 838.34 0 Total 838.34
34 | NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy Table LM10 | Direct and Indirect Employment in Northamptonshire by Sector 2009, East Midlands Tourism
Direct Employment Jobs (FTEs) % of direct Accommodation 1,776 17% Food and Drink 2,928 28% Recreation 1,449 14% Shopping 3,474 34% Transport 669 7% Total Direct Employment 10,296 100% Indirect Employment 2,756 Total 13,052 NB: The above figures include jobs (FTEs) supported by both overnight and day visitors to Northamptonshire.
Table LM11 | Tourism Spend (£m)by County in East Midlands – 2003-08, East Midlands Tourism
County 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Derbyshire 1,287 1,293 1,285 1,368 1,404 1,420 Leicestershire (inc. Rutland) 1,109 1,109 1,112 1,314 1,326 1,387 Lincolnshire 864 828 850 903 927 958 Northamptonshire 702 721 762 798 824 834 Nottinghamshire 1,257 1,264 1,342 1,436 1,437 1,388 East Midlands 5,206 5,216 5,351 5,820 5,918 5,987
Table LM12 | Number of Full-Time Equivalent Jobs Supported by Tourism – 2003-08, East Midlands Tourism
County 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Derbyshire 24,510 24,316 24,015 23,651 24,568 24,336 Leicestershire (inc. Rutland) 19,158 18,979 18,995 20,157 21,058 21,384 Lincolnshire 16,773 16,156 16,399 16,120 16,683 16,826 Northamptonshire 12,624 12,607 13,138 12,710 13,043 12,944 Nottinghamshire 21,622 21,547 22,547 22,132 22,476 21,362 East Midlands 94,563 93,635 95,124 95,130 97,828 96,852
NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy | 35 Occupation Analysis Overall, just over two in five employees By broad Standard Occupational (41.8%) in the county are employed in higher Classification (SOC), the top three categories level occupations (defined as Standard of employment in Northamptonshire are Occupational Classifications (SOC) 1-3). This SOC1 (managers and senior officials – 17% is higher than the regional average of 40% of overall Northamptonshire employees), but lower than England average of 44.2%. SOC3 (associate professional and technical There are however, wide variances at district occupations – 14%) and SOC9 (elementary level with South Northamptonshire having occupations – 13%) which mirrors the the highest proportion of employment in England and regional positions. [Figure LM2] higher level occupations (53%) with Corby having the lowest proportion (only 27.4%).
20 Northamptonshire 18 East Midlands 16 England 14 12 10 8
% employment 6 4 2 0 Skilled Personal customer Sales and trades occ service occ & tech occ service occ Managers and Associate prof Administrative senior officials Elementary occ Professional occ & secretarial occ Process, plant and machine operatives
Figure LM2 | Employment at Broad SOC Level, Northamptonshire, East Midlands and England – 2009, Annual Population Survey
36 | NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy The proportion of employment in higher level Table LM13 | Northamptonshire and Districts Employment by occupations in Northamptonshire is below Occupation (% of total employed) 2009, Annual Population Survey that of the comparator areas used in this analysis with for example, Buckinghamshire having the highest proportion of employment in higher level occupations at 52.5%.
Conversely, just over a quarter of % all in employment
Northamptonshire’s employment (27.4%) is who are Northants Corby Daventry East Northants Kettering Northampton South Northants Wellingborough East Midlands 1: managers and in lower level occupations (defined as SOC 17.2 8.1 27.2 18.6 12.6 16.7 19.6 14.7 16.0 senior officials categories 6-9) which is higher than the 2: professional 10.9 6.4 11.4 13.7 9.2 11.4 12.7 8.1 11.6 England average (25.4%) but lower than the occupations regional average (29.1%). Once again there 3: associate prof & 13.7 12.9 7.2 12.3 15.8 13.6 20.7 11.2 12.4 is a wide variation at district level with, not tech occupations surprisingly, South Northamptonshire having SOC 1-3 41.8 27.4 45.8 44.6 37.6 41.7 53.0 34.0 40.0 4: administrative and the lowest proportion of employment in 10.4 12.5 14.7 6.0 12.1 9.8 9.9 9.2 10.5 SOC categories 6-9 (at 15.2%), while Corby secretarial occupations 5: skilled trades has the highest proportion (40.5%). 11.7 9.3 10.0 12.6 15.0 9.1 15.1 13.6 11.5 occupations 6: personal service Compared to the comparator areas, 8.5 10.3 4.2 10.8 8.9 9.5 6.8 8.0 8.8 only Bedford (28.7%) and Milton Keynes occupations (27.9%) have a greater proportion of SOC 4-6 30.6 32.1 28.9 29.4 36.0 28.4 31.8 30.8 30.8 7: sales and customer 6.7 7.8 7.2 7.0 3.8 8.2 5.4 6.4 7.5 employment in lower skilled categories than service occupations Northamptonshire with Buckinghamshire 8: process, plant and 7.9 13.9 5.4 7.0 6.6 8.7 3.9 12.4 8.7 having the lowest proportion of employment machine operatives in lower skilled occupations at 15.6%. 9: elementary 13.0 18.8 12.7 12.1 16.1 12.9 5.9 16.4 12.9 occupations The proportion of employment in SOC 7-9 27.6 40.5 25.3 26.1 26.5 29.8 15.2 35.2 29.1 Northamptonshire in medium level skills categories (defined as SOC categories 4-6) is 30.6% almost identical to the both the regional (30.8%) and England (30%) averages. A full breakdown of occupational employment for Northamptonshire (and its districts) and the comparator areas is shown in Tables LM13 and LM14.
NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy | 37 Table LM14 | Comparator Areas Employment by Occupation (% of total At major occupational sub-group level, the employed) 2009 largest 4 occupations in Northamptonshire in 2009 were Corporate Managers (14.8%), Administrative Occupations (8.7%), Elementary Administration and Service Occupations (7.8%) and Caring Personal % all in employment Service Occupations (7.5%) [Table LM15].
who are Bucks Milton Keynes Oxon Bedford Cambs Central Beds Leics Warks South East England 1: managers and 23.1 17.5 16.4 16.6 16.7 20.0 17.1 17.3 17.3 16.0 Additionally, at major sub-group level, the senior officials occupations seeing the largest growth in 2: professional 15.1 11.4 17.9 17.3 20.2 10.9 12.5 13.7 14.6 13.4 Northamptonshire between 2004/5 and 2008/9 occupations were Customer Services (+112%), Protective 3: associate prof & 14.3 15.1 15.9 12.6 14.8 17.1 13.0 14.4 16.0 14.8 tech occupations Services (+24%), Elementary Trades (+22%) and SOC 1-3 52.5 44.0 50.2 46.5 51.7 48.0 42.6 45.4 47.9 44.2 Business and Public service Professionals (22%) 4: administrative and see Appendices. The occupations recording the 13.6 14.4 10.7 8.8 9.8 11.8 11.6 10.9 11.5 11.3 secretarial occupations largest declines over the period were Leisure 5: skilled trades 10.3 6.7 9.2 8.6 11.1 10.8 11.1 12.5 9.8 10.4 / Other Personal Services (-36%), Science / occupations Technology Professionals (-29%), Agricultural / 6: personal service 7.9 7.1 7.3 7.0 6.7 7.5 8.9 7.5 8.3 8.3 Service Managers (-27%), Machine Operatives occupations (-16%) and Textiles / Printing Trades (-14%). SOC 4-6 31.8 28.2 27.2 24.4 27.6 30.1 31.6 30.9 29.6 30.0 7: sales and customer 5.3 9.4 7.0 11.3 4.4 6.3 6.7 5.6 7.0 7.4 service occupations 8: process, plant and 3.2 5.4 6.3 5.2 6.3 5.1 9.0 6.9 5.0 6.8 machine operatives 9: elementary 7.1 13.1 9.2 12.2 10.0 10.4 9.9 10.8 10.1 11.2 occupations SOC 7-9 15.6 27.9 22.5 28.7 20.7 21.8 25.6 23.3 22.1 25.4
38 | NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy There are also very significant variations Table LM15 | Employment by occupation major sub in occupational breakdown by gender. In groups (July 2008-June 2009) Northamptonshire, East Northamptonshire, the top three occupational Midlands and England, Annual Population Survey categories for males are mangers and senior officials (22%), skilled trades occupations (20%) and elementary occupations (15%). For females, the top three categories are administrative and secretarial occupations (20%), associate and technical occupations (17%) and personal service occupations (14%). These positions Occupation (with varying percentages) are also replicated % Northamptonshire East Midlands % England % in the England and regional averages. Corporate Managers 14.8 12.8 13.0 2.4 3.1 3.0 However, there are significant differences by Mangers/proprietors in agriculture/services district. For example, Daventry has a particularly Science and technology professionals 2.4 3.2 3.9 high proportion of employees working in Health professionals 0.5 0.9 1.2 managerial and senior officials positions both of Teaching and research professionals 4.6 4.8 4.8 males (33%) and females (21%). Kettering and Business and public service professionals 3.5 2.7 3.6 Wellingborough have an above county average 1.5 1.7 1.8 proportion of males working in skilled trades Science & technology associate professionals occupations (both 24%) and Kettering also has Health & social welfare assoc professionals 3.6 3.6 3.8 an above county average proportion of females Protective service occupations 1.0 1.2 1.1 working in elementary occupations (22%). Culture, media and sports occupations 1.9 1.7 2.5 A full breakdown of male and female Business & public service assoc professionals 5.7 4.3 5.6 employment by broad SOC category for Administrative occupations 8.7 8.1 8.6 Northamptonshire, its districts and the Secretarial & related occupations 1.7 2.4 2.7 comparator areas can be seen in the Appendices. Skilled agricultural trades 0.8 1.1 1.0 Skilled metal and electronic trades 5.0 4.8 3.9 Skilled construction and building trades 4.6 3.8 3.8 Textiles, printing and other skilled trades 1.4 1.8 1.7 Caring personal service occupations 7.5 7.1 6.4 Leisure and other personal service occs 1.0 1.7 2.0 Sales occupations 4.8 5.9 6.0 Customer service occupations 1.9 1.6 1.4 Process plant and machine operatives 3.3 4.5 3.0 Transport & mobile machine drivers/operatives 4.6 4.1 3.8 Elementary trades, plant and storage related 5.2 4.6 3.3 Elementary administration & service occs 7.8 8.2 7.9
NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy | 39 Job Density has the highest job density of 1.06 and East Jobs density can be used as a proxy for the Northamptonshire the lowest of 0.61. Of overall balance between jobs and people. the comparator areas, Milton Keynes (1.01), It is defined as the number of filled jobs in Oxfordshire (0.93), Warwickshire (0.90) and an area divided by the number of people of Cambridgeshire (0.86) all had higher job working age resident in that area. In 2007 density rates than Northamptonshire (all Northamptonshire had a job density of 0.85 (or 2007 figures). It is important to ensure that 85 filled jobs for each 100 people of working sufficient new jobs are created to keep pace age resident in the county) which is slightly with population growth [see Table LM16]. higher than the regional (0.81) and England (0.84) averages. By district, Northampton
Table LM16 | Jobs Density - 2000/07 Northamptonshire, Districts & Comparator Areas, ONS
Area 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Northamptonshire 0.86 0.84 0.81 0.84 0.85 0.85 0.81 0.85 Corby 1.05 0.94 0.96 0.92 0.92 0.91 0.92 0.97 Daventry 0.77 0.72 0.75 0.76 0.78 0.84 0.76 0.82 East Northamptonshire 0.65 0.57 0.54 0.58 0.58 0.63 0.59 0.61 Kettering 0.75 0.73 0.74 0.77 0.77 0.79 0.71 0.72 Northampton 1.06 1.07 1.03 1.06 1.11 1.08 1.04 1.06 South Northamptonshire 0.65 0.61 0.60 0.67 0.60 0.60 0.58 0.69 Wellingborough 0.81 0.87 0.80 0.80 0.79 0.77 0.77 0.79
Leicestershire 0.71 0.72 0.73 0.73 0.76 0.77 0.78 0.79 Warwickshire 0.81 0.83 0.83 0.81 0.84 0.87 0.89 0.90 Bedford 0.81 0.78 0.77 0.83 0.83 0.89 0.81 0.84 Central Bedfordshire 0.67 0.66 0.65 0.65 0.66 0.67 0.66 0.66 Cambridgeshire 0.84 0.84 0.87 0.84 0.79 0.82 0.88 0.86 Milton Keynes 0.99 1.03 1.02 1.01 1.03 1.00 0.97 1.01 Buckinghamshire 0.89 0.87 0.85 0.86 0.90 0.88 0.85 0.84 Oxfordshire 0.95 0.91 0.93 0.92 0.93 0.92 0.94 0.93 England 0.83 0.83 0.84 0.84 0.84 0.84 0.83 0.84 East Midlands 0.78 0.78 0.78 0.78 0.78 0.80 0.79 0.81 South East 0.88 0.87 0.88 0.87 0.86 0.88 0.85 0.86
40 | NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy Self Employment Table LM17 | Percentage of Working Age People who Self employment is a good measure of are Self Employed, Northamptonshire, Districts and entrepreneurialism. In 2009, Northamptonshire Comparator Areas, 2009, Annual Population Survey had a self employment rate3 of 8.4%. (ranging from 5.1% in East Northamptonshire to Area Percentage 15.5% in South Northamptonshire) which Northamptonshire 8.4 is above the regional average of 7.9% but Corby 6.3 below the England average of 9.3% - see Daventry 7.3 Appendices. Between 2004 and 2009, the East Northamptonshire 5.1 percentage of the working age population Kettering 6.4 that are self-employed in Northamptonshire Northampton 8.3 has fallen from 10% (in 2004) to 8% (in South Northamptonshire 15.5 2009) which contrasts with a static England 8.9 position of 9% in both years. Three districts Wellingborough in particular have seen a large decline in Leicestershire 9.6 self employment, East Northamptonshire Warwickshire 10.4 (12% in 2004; 5% in 2009); Daventry Bedford 7.8 (12% in 2004; 7% in 2009) and Kettering Central Bedfordshire 11.7 (9% in 2004; 6% in 2009) [Table LM17]. Cambridgeshire 9.7 With the exception of Milton Keynes and Milton Keynes 6.6 Bedford, the county’s self employment rate is Buckinghamshire 13.7 below the other surrounding comparator areas. Oxfordshire 10.2 For example, in 2009, the self employment South East 10.2 rate in Buckinghamshire was 13.7% and in East Midlands 7.9 Central Bedfordshire 11.7% [Figure LM3]. England 9.3
20 18 16 14 12
% 10 8 6 4 2 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Northamptonshire South Wellingborough Corby Northamptonshire England Daventry Kettering East Midlands East Northamptonshire Northampton
Figure LM3 | % of Working Age People who are Self 3 Defined as percentage of working age population who are self employed Employed, Northamptonshire, Districts, East Midlands and England. 2004-2009, Annual Population Survey
NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy | 41 Table LM18 | % of Working Age who are Self In terms of comparison with the 119 Employed Ranking of 119 Upper Tier Local upper tier local authority areas (excluding Authority Areas (Excluding London), 2009 London), Northamptonshire holds a middling position (56th) with roughly half Rank LA % the self employment rate of the highest ranked authority (East Sussex with a 16% 1 East Sussex 16.0 self employment rate) [Table LM18]. 2 Cornwall 15.2 3 Rutland 15.2 In 2009, the male self employment rate in the county was 12.1% (nearly three times 4 Herefordshire 14.9 the female rate of 4.4%) and varied from a 5 Dorset 13.9 low of 7.4% in East Northamptonshire to a 56 Northamptonshire 8.4 high of 22.4% in South Northamptonshire England 9.3 – see Appendices. Female self employment East Midlands 7.9 was highest in South Northamptonshire (7.7%). The male self employment rate in Northamptonshire is above the East Midlands average of 11.4% but below the England average of 12.9%. Of the comparator areas, Buckinghamshire had the highest male self employment rate (17.8% in 2009). Between 2006 and 2009, Northamptonshire saw a fall in both male (-1.8%) and female (-3.3%) self employment but this was considerably less than the drop in self employment of both sexes seen in the East Midlands (male: -11.7%; female: -18.9%) during this period. The three largest sectors for self employment in Northamptonshire are Construction (32.4% of all self employment in the county), Business Services / Finance (18.8%) and Distribution / Hotels / Catering (12.2%) – see Appendices. Self employment in Construction is particularly prevalent in Daventry and Kettering with self employment in Business Services / Finance being particularly concentrated in South Northamptonshire.
42 | NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy Workforce Profile Table LM19 | Proportion of Full-Time and Part-Time Employment – Northamptonshire, East Midlands and England, Annual Business Inquiry Gender and Full/Part Time Working The Northamptonshire workforce is fairly evenly split by gender, males making up Area Male Female 53% of employees and females 47% (this Full-Time Part-Time Full-Time Part-Time compares with the England and East Midlands’ (%) (%) (%) (%) averages of 51% males, 49% females). Northamptonshire 86 14 55 45 A full breakdown of male and East Midlands 84 16 51 49 female employment by broad SIC England 84 16 54 46 category for Northamptonshire, its districts and the comparator areas Table LM20 | Male and Female Full-Time and Part-Time Working by can be seen in the Appendices. Broad Sector in Northamptonshire – 2008, Annual Business Inquiry In relation to full and part-time working, Male Full Male Part Female Female 71% of employees in Northamptonshire are Northamptonshire Time Time Full Time Part Time classified as full-time with 29% classified 2008 Workers Workers Workers Workers as part-time. This compares to the regional position of 68% full-time, 32% part-time; and Industry no. % no. % no. % no. % 69% full-time, 31% part-time for England. Agriculture and fishing 411 0.3 73 0.3 153 0.2 256 0.4 The most noticeable difference between Energy and water 686 0.5 4 0.0 230 0.3 40 0.1 males and females is that males are more Manufacturing 32,827 23.0 1,128 4.7 9,918 12.2 2,734 4.1 likely to work full-time than females. In Northamptonshire, 86% of males work Construction 10,604 7.4 291 1.2 1,084 1.3 945 1.4 full-time compared to only 14% part-time Distribution, hotels (the equivalent figures for females are and restaurants 29,002 20.3 10,256 43.1 17,470 21.5 19,299 28.8 55% full-time and 45% part-time) and Transport and these figures are broadly in line with the communications 18,488 12.9 1,170 4.9 4,486 5.5 1,599 2.4 England and regional positions. This finding Banking, finance is expected as females, who often have the and insurance, etc 32,954 23.1 4,726 19.9 18,684 23.0 10,894 16.2 lead role in looking after children, elderly Public parents and long-term sick / incapacitated administration, relatives are more likely to choose part-time education & health 12,584 8.8 4,145 17.4 26,473 32.6 27,589 41.2 work to allow them time to undertake such Other services 5,409 3.8 1,999 8.4 2,761 3.4 3,687 5.5 caring responsibilities [Table LM19 and 20.
NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy | 43 By sector, there are wide differences in Employment Rate and Economic working full or part-time by the gender of Inactivity by Ethnic Group employees (which is effectively saying the N.B. Because of the small numbers involved same thing, those sectors employing mainly for some ethnic groups the following full-time staff will have predominantly analysis should be treated with caution. male employees; those sectors employing mainly part-time staff will have an above In December 2009, the White population average proportion of female employees). of Northamptonshire had an employment rate of 76.7% (for comparison purposes, the For example, Distribution, Hotels and overall average county employment rate is Restaurants (which includes retailing), 75.8%) which is generally significantly higher and Public Administration (which includes than the employment rate for other ethnic health, education, local and central groups. Similarly, the White population have government) have particularly high a lower economically inactivity rate (17.5%) levels of part time employment, which which is generally significantly lower than are predominantly filled by women. that of other ethnic groups. Indians and Other Ethnic Groups (principally Chinese) have the In the case of retailing, employers are often highest economic inactivity rates (29.5% Other looking for part-time staff (such as check- Ethnic Group, 27.1% Indian) [Table LM21]. out operators, shelf stackers etc) due to the variations in customer demand and the consequent impact on the flow of work. Moreover, in the case of Public Administration, most public sector employers have long- standing flexible working practices which allow for staff to work flexible hours, job share and so on which again will be particularly attractive for those with caring responsibilities.
44 | NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy Table LM21 | Employment Rate and Economic Inactivity by Ethnic Group for Northamptonshire and Comparator Areas – December 2009, Annual Population Survey
Black or Pakistani/ White Mixed Indian Black Other Bangladeshi British
2009 employment rate economically inactive employment rate economically inactive employment rate economically inactive employment rate economically inactive employment rate economically inactive employment rate economically inactive Northamptonshire 76.7 17.5 52.6 ! 69.4 27.1 84.2 ! 65.2 21.8 48.5 29.5
Leicestershire 77.1 18.8 ! 82.4 69.6 21.2 53.4 19.2 62.3 ! 59.1 32.0 Warwickshire 74.0 19.9 71.4 28.6 71.3 22.9 57.0 ! 50.5 49.5 94.4 ! Bedford 75.9 18.9 100.0 ! 74.3 19.8 29.1 52.5 65.4 ! 58.7 28.1 Cambridgeshire 76.8 18.7 43.7 34.6 75.8 24.2 ! ! ! 48.4 75.9 17.8 Central 77.3 18.4 ! ! 62.5 ! ! ! 59.1 27.2 70.3 25.5 Bedfordshire Buckinghamshire 77.6 17.9 74.6 ! 79.0 14.6 47.5 43.8 66.7 26.1 56.1 35.1 Milton Keynes 75.6 17.6 84.9 ! 67.1 23.0 75.3 17.8 68.7 26.6 72.4 21.8 Oxfordshire 76.6 19.2 53.6 46.4 88.3 ! 67.5 32.5 61.5 38.5 66.5 33.5 England 72.6 21.8 60.0 30.1 68.4 25.2 46.4 44.1 58.7 28.3 59.4 33.8 East Midlands 73.4 21.1 53.4 36.4 67.6 25.6 48.9 39.8 56.6 31.1 60.0 32.0 South East 75.3 19.9 66.8 25.5 79.0 16.0 55.6 37.0 69.5 22.6 73.6 23.5
! denotes numbers too small to disclose
NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy | 45 Sectoral Employment by Ethnic Group The figures for the other ethnic groups are not N.B. Because of the small numbers involved as reliable due to small numbers and a small for some ethnic groups the following sample size, but they indicate the following: analysis should be treated with caution. • 86.2% of Black/Black British people In 2008, 71.9% of the White population are employed in Services (41.2% in the were employed in Services (23.8% in Public Sector, 18.8% in Distribution/ the Public Sector, 19.7% in Distribution/ Hotels/Restaurants) and the remaining Hotels/Restaurants and 16% in Banking/ 13.8% in manufacturing; Finance). A further 17.2% were employed • 86.6% of Indians work in services (32% in Manufacturing and 8.5% in Construction. in Distribution/Hotels /Restaurants, Compared to the figures for all ethnic groups and 25.6% in the Public Sector); combined, White people were significantly less • 82.8% of the Mixed Ethnic Group work in likely to work in Services overall (71.9% White; Services as do 65% of the Other Ethnic 80.5% All Ethnic Groups) and particularly in Group (primarily Chinese) [Table LM22]. Banking/Finance (White 16%; 21.3% All Ethnic Groups) and Distribution/Hotels/Restaurants (19.7% White, 24.1% All Ethnic Groups).
Table LM22 | Broad Sector Employment in Northamptonshire by Ethnic Group (2008), Annual Population Survey 2008
% 16+ employed in: All people White Mixed Indian / Pakistani Bangladeshi Black / British Other
Agriculture & fishing 0.3 1.5 ! ! ! ! ! Energy & water 0.3 1 ! ! ! ! ! Manufacturing 14.8 17.2 ! ! ! 13.8 ! Construction 4.1 8.5 ! ! ! ! ! Distribution, hotels & restaurants 24.1 19.7 ! 32 ! 18.8 ! Transport & Communication 8.2 8.4 ! ! ! 11 ! Banking, finance & insurance 21.3 16 ! ! ! 15.1 ! Public administration, education & health 22.5 23.8 ! 25.6 ! 41.2 ! Other services 4.4 3.9 ! ! ! ! 32.9 Total services 80.5 71.9 82.8 ! 86.6 86.2 65
46 | NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy Occupation by Ethnic Group • Other Ethnic Groups (principally Chinese) are N.B. Because of the small numbers involved more likely to be employed in elementary for some ethnic groups some of the following occupations (32.9% compared to 13% analysis should be treated with caution. for All Ethnic Groups combined); • Black/Black British people are more likely The proportion of the White population by to be employed in elementary occupations occupational category in Northamptonshire (25% Black, 13% All Ethnic Groups (in 2009) is roughly similar to the overall combined), personal services (17.8% population (with a maximum variance of Black, 8.5% All Ethnic groups combined) 1.5 percentage points). For the other ethnic and associate professional and technical groups, the main (though very sketchy) occupations (20.5% Black, 13.7% All findings by occupational category are: Ethnic Groups combined) [Table LM24]. • Indians are much more likely to be . employed in sales and consumer service occupations than the wider population as a whole (21% Indians compared to 6.7% for All Ethnic Groups combined);
Table LM23 | Occupation by Ethnic Group – Northamptonshire, 2009, Annual Population Survey 2009
% 16+ employed in: All people White Mixed Indian / Pakistani Bangladeshi Black / British Other
Managers & senior officials 17.2 16.7 ! ! ! 16 ! Professional occupations 10.9 10.3 ! ! ! ! ! Associate professional & technical 13.7 13 ! ! ! 20.5 ! Administrative & secretarial 10.4 11.1 ! ! ! ! ! Skilled trades 11.7 11.8 ! ! ! ! ! Personal Service 8.5 7.9 ! ! ! 17.8 ! Sales & consumer service 6.7 6.6 ! 21 ! ! ! Process plant & machine operatives 7.9 8.2 ! ! ! 11.5 25 Elementary occupations 13 14.3 ! ! ! 25 32.9
NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy | 47 Disabled People’s Employment (+1.6%) and England (0.6%) positions In 2009, 15% of Northamptonshire’s working which both saw increases in disabled age population were classified as disabled4 peoples’ employment. Wellingborough which is significantly lower than the regional (-37.5%), Kettering (-19.4%) and East (19%) and England (17.9%) positions – see Northamptonshire (-18.4%) saw particularly Appendices. By district, Kettering has the large decreases in the numbers of disabled highest percentage of disabled people people in employment over the period. (18.1%), with Daventry having the lowest Compared to the surrounding comparator (12.2%). Northamptonshire also has a smaller areas, only Buckinghamshire (-30.9%) saw percentage of disabled people compared to the a larger percentage fall in the numbers of majority of the surrounding comparator areas. disabled people in employment over this period of time with Central Bedfordshire Northamptonshire saw a decline in the seeing the largest increase (47.2%). proportion of disabled people in its working age population between 2006-2009 (-2%) Earnings which was greater than the decline recorded regionally (-1%) or for England (-0.1%). Corby Median Earnings (Resident Analysis) in particular saw a large (-20.7%) decrease in Interpretation of median earnings is its disabled numbers, however, interestingly considered the most appropriate way to South Northamptonshire saw a 16.3 % increase analyse earnings as large variations at either over the period. Of the county’s surrounding end of the income spectrum do not skew the comparator areas, only Buckinghamshire results (as happens when looking at mean recorded a decrease in the numbers of earnings). This section starts off by looking disabled people (of -23.9%) over the period. at median earnings of Northamptonshire residents regardless of where they work. Of those people classified as disabled, in 2009, three in five (59.8%) were in employment, In 2009, average weekly earnings in significantly higher than both the East Northamptonshire were £472.1 which Midlands (55.7%) and England (50.9%) is above the regional average of £460.5 levels – see Appendices. By district, South but below the England average of £496. Northamptonshire had the highest rate of There is a wide variation between districts disabled people’s employment (68.3%) with ranging from a low of £407.2 in Corby to Wellingborough having the lowest (only a high of £545.8 in Daventry. These results 36.3%). Northamptonshire holds a middling reflect the fact that Northamptonshire position compared to surrounding areas and is a relatively low-skilled area and has a falls significantly below the highest ranked disproportionately smaller share of high value county - Buckinghamshire, which had a added, knowledge-intensive occupations and disabled persons’ employment rate of 65.9%. industries. In order to raise average earnings, more highly skilled, knowledge intensive Comparing 2006 to 2009, Northamptonshire jobs need to be created in, or introduced has actually seen a fall in the numbers of to, the county [Tables LM24 and 25]. disabled people in employment (of -4.2%) which compares poorly with the East Midlands
4 The source for this data is the Annual Population Survey. The disabled were self-classified.
48 | NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy Table LM24 | Gross Full-Time Median Weekly Earnings (Residents Data). Table LM25 | Gross Full-Time Median Weekly Northamptonshire, Districts and Comparator Areas – Earnings (Residents Data). Top 5 Upper Tier 2006-09, Annual Survey of Hours & Earnings Local Authority Areas (Exc. London) – 2009, Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings
Weekly Pay Area Rank (Gross) (£) Windsor & 674.6 1 Maidenhead Wokingham 630.7 2
Area 2006 (£) (£) 2007 2008 (£) 2009 (£) Change Actual 2006-09 (£) % Change 2006-2009 % Change 2008-2009 Surrey 623.4 3 Northamptonshire 438.0 455.9 460.0 472.1 34.1 7.79 2.6 Buckinghamshire 597.6 4 Corby 373.4 370.9 404.9 407.2 33.8 9.05 0.6 Hertfordshire 577.5 5 Daventry 486.2 534.9 513.6 545.8 59.6 12.26 6.3 Northamptonshire 472.1 51 East East Midlands 460.5 Northamptonshire 460.5 468.4 494.2 514.6 54.1 11.75 4.1 England 496.0 Kettering 418.2 420.3 435.9 460.8 42.6 10.19 5.7 Northampton 424.9 448.6 454.3 459.1 34.2 8.05 1.1 South Northamptonshire 499.6 533.3 547.1 505.4 5.8 1.16 -7.6 Wellingborough 422.2 417.3 399.5 431.3 9.1 2.16 8.0
Bedfordshire 489.0 514.0 530.3 534.8 45.8 9.37 0.8 Buckinghamshire 527.1 541.7 583.7 597.6 70.5 13.38 2.4 Cambridgeshire 479.1 490.8 512.4 525.9 46.8 9.77 2.6 Leicestershire 453.0 446.9 480.8 490.0 37.0 8.17 1.9 Oxfordshire 488.7 503.4 523.3 541.4 52.7 10.78 3.5 Warwickshire 474.4 479.1 498.5 509.9 35.5 7.48 2.3 Milton Keynes 455.7 484.3 511.3 520.8 65.1 14.29 1.9 East Midlands 423.1 430.0 450.2 460.5 37.4 8.84 2.3 South East 486.5 502.3 524.8 536.6 50.1 10.30 2.2 England 450.4 464.0 484.5 496.0 45.6 10.12 2.4
NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy | 49 Compared to all 119 upper tier local authority However, there are very large differences areas (excluding London), Northamptonshire between districts with the male / female has a middling position (51st) with the earnings differential being as great as county’s average earnings being just 33.4% in Wellingborough and 30.6% in East over £200 less than the top ranking area Northamptonshire to being as low as 5.9% in of Windsor and Maidenhead which has Corby. The reasons underlying these variances average weekly earnings of £674.6. are complex, but detailed analysis suggests that in Wellingborough, the reason behind the Between 2008/9 earnings in the county large differential is that whilst male median grew by 2.6%, which is a faster growth earnings in the district are roughly the same rate than that recorded for both the East as median earnings for males overall in the Midlands (2.3%) and England (2.4%). county, women’s median earnings in the However, this does mask wide variations district are significantly below the median for between districts as Daventry saw an women in the county overall. However, in the average earnings increase of 6.3% between case of Corby, the position is reversed and 2008/9 whilst South Northamptonshire saw the differential is much less because whilst a large decline of -7.6% over the period. women’s median earnings in the district are In terms of gender, in 2009, women in roughly the same as the median for all women Northamptonshire earned 21.7% less than men in the county, male median earnings in the – males £515.7, females £403.8 - which closely district are much lower than the median mirrors both the regional (22% differential) for all males in the county [Table LM26]. and England (20.2% differential) positions.
Table LM26 | Gross Median Earnings by Gender (Resident Analysis). Northamptonshire, Districts, East Midlands and Great Britain – 2009, Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings
Gross Weekly pay Northants Corby Daventry East Northants Kettering Northampton South Northants Wellingborough East Midlands England
Male Full Time Workers 515.7 416.1 569.1 579.8 502.0 490.8 576.0 505.3 504.0 538.5 Female Full Time Workers 403.8 391.7 466.7 402.6 382.0 408.5 440.7 336.6 393.2 431.4 % Difference male/female -21.7 -5.9 -18.0 -30.6 -23.9 -16.8 -23.5 -33.4 -22.0 -19.9 Full Time Workers 472.1 407.2 545.8 514.6 460.8 459.1 505.4 431.3 460.5 496.0
Gross hourly pay Male Full Time Workers 12.55 10.13 14.16 13.95 12.48 11.89 15.42 11.52 12.22 13.29 Female Full Time Workers 10.69 9.66 NA 10.33 10.70 10.83 11.66 9.19 10.51 11.52 Full Time Workers 11.81 10.07 14.03 12.22 11.86 11.52 13.33 10.34 11.54 12.58
50 | NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy Median Earnings (Workplace Analysis) Table LM27 | Comparison Residents and Workplace Median Another way to examine earnings is to look Earnings 2009 – Northamptonshire, Districts and Comparator at median earnings by the geographical Areas, Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings location of the workplace which does not include the incomes of those residents Actual Resident Workplace Difference Area Difference who commute out of the area to work. 2009 (£) 2009 (£) % This data therefore shows the earnings of (£) people who work in Northamptonshire, Northamptonshire 472.1 452.4 -19.7 -4.2 regardless of where they live. Corby 407.2 426.8 19.6 4.8 Using workplace data, Northamptonshire had Daventry 545.8 456.6 -89.2 -16.3 lower weekly median earnings of £452.4 in East 2009 (which is 4.1% lower than the residents’ Northamptonshire 514.6 422.3 -92.3 -17.9 earnings median of £472.1), and this is now Kettering 460.8 424.3 -36.5 -7.9 lower than both the East Midlands (£456.6) and Northampton 459.1 466.5 7.4 1.6 England (£495.2). This indicates that earnings South in Northamptonshire are comparatively low Northamptonshire 505.4 475.7 -29.7 -5.9 and those residents working outside the Wellingborough 431.3 414.7 -16.6 -3.8 county are, on average, earning higher salaries/ wages than those working in the county. Bedfordshire 534.8 448.2 -86.6 -16.2 The largest differentials between residents Buckinghamshire 597.6 556.1 -41.5 -6.9 and workplace median earnings are seen in Cambridgeshire 525.9 510.0 -15.9 -3.0 East Northamptonshire (-17.9% differential – resident median £514.6; workplace Leicestershire 490.0 457.4 -32.6 -6.7 median £422.3); and Daventry (-16.3% Oxfordshire 541.4 517.5 -23.9 -4.4 differential – residential median £545.8; Warwickshire 509.9 526.2 16.3 3.2 workplace median £456.6). On the other Milton Keynes 520.8 495.7 -25.1 -4.8 hand in Corby and Northampton workplace East Midlands 460.5 456.6 -3.9 -0.8 median earnings are higher than residents’ earnings (+4.8% differential in Corby; + 1.6% South East 536.6 513.6 -23.0 -4.3 differential in Northampton) [Table LM27]. England 496.0 495.2 -0.8 -0.2
NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy | 51 Table LM28 | Gross Full-Time Median Weekly Earnings Workplace earnings data variations between (Workplace Data). Northamptonshire, Districts and Comparator districts are less pronounced than that seen in Areas – 2006-09, Annual Survey of Hours & Earnings residents earnings data and ranges (in 2009) from a low of £414.7 in Wellingborough to a high of £475.7 in South Northamptonshire. In comparison with surrounding counties / areas, Area apart from Bedfordshire, Northamptonshire had the lowest median earnings level 2006 (£) (£) 2007 2008 (£) 2009 (£) Change Actual 2006-09 (£) Change 2006- 2009 % Change 2008- 2009 % with Buckinghamshire having the highest Northamptonshire 409.1 429.8 440.3 452.4 43.3 10.58 2.7 at £556.1 (in 2009) [Table LM28]. Corby 387.0 403.9 428.4 426.8 39.8 10.28 -0.4 Compared to all 119 upper tier local Daventry 429.5 418.5 422.5 456.6 27.1 6.31 8.1 authority areas, using workplace earnings East 394.0 419.5 391.0 422.3 28.3 7.18 8.0 data, Northamptonshire comes out below Northamptonshire half way in 64th position (compared to Kettering 376.8 395.4 414.8 424.3 47.5 12.61 2.3 coming in 51st position using residents Northampton 414.5 456.0 464.6 466.5 52.0 12.55 0.4 earnings data), with the County’s median earnings of £452.4 being £215 below top South 462.2 492.6 523.2 475.7 13.5 2.92 -9.1 Northamptonshire ranking Bracknell Forest which has weekly median earnings of £667.2 [Table LM29]. Wellingborough 387.7 402.3 402.2 414.7 27.0 6.96 3.1 Between 2006 and 2009, Northamptonshire Bedfordshire 443.1 454.6 453.8 448.2 5.1 1.15 -1.2 saw median earnings growth of 10.6%, Buckinghamshire 489.9 499.4 522.2 556.1 66.2 13.51 6.5 higher than either the regional (9%) or Cambridgeshire 465.8 477.9 493.5 510.0 44.2 9.49 3.3 England (10.1%) growth rates though it did Leicestershire 429.5 431.4 468.8 457.4 27.9 6.50 -2.4 vary significantly by district from a low of Oxfordshire 478.5 488.7 498.3 517.5 39.0 8.15 3.9 2.9% in South Northamptonshire to a high of 12.6% in Kettering. With the exception Milton Keynes 462.2 491.3 497.1 526.2 64.0 13.85 5.9 of Milton Keynes and Buckinghamshire, Warwickshire 448.7 459.3 485.2 495.7 47.0 10.47 2.2 Northamptonshire also saw faster median East Midlands 419.1 421.6 445.1 456.6 37.5 8.95 2.6 earnings growth rates than the surrounding South East 469.0 481.9 500.9 513.6 44.6 9.51 2.5 comparator areas between 2006 and 2009 England 449.8 463.6 483.9 495.2 45.4 10.09 2.3
Table LM29 | Gross Full-Time Median Weekly Earnings (Workplace Data). Top 5 Upper Tier Local Authority Areas (Exc. London) – 2009, Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings
Local authority: county / unitary Weekly pay – gross (£) Rank Bracknell Forest 667.2 1 Wokingham 627.1 2 Windsor and Maidenhead 619.7 3 West Berkshire 608.8 4 Slough 584.3 5 Northamptonshire 452.4 64
52 | NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy Skills higher than both the East Midlands (13.2%) and England (12.3%) rates. All the comparator The level of skills is an important issue in areas also had much lower proportions of Northamptonshire and has been identified people of working age with no qualifications as a key priority target in the Local Area with the lowest proportions being found in Agreement 2. It is essential that the workforce Oxfordshire (5.8%) and Central Bedfordshire has sufficient skills to meet the changing (7%). By district, Daventry had the highest rate needs of employers. The county has a lower of working age people with no qualifications skills profile compared with the region, (22.1%) and East Northamptonshire England and surrounding comparator the lowest (9.8%) [Table LM30]. areas. The proportion of the working age population with no qualifications, in 2008 in Northamptonshire was 15%, significantly
Table LM30 | Highest Level of Qualifications (% of Working Age Population) Northamptonshire, Districts and Comparator Areas, 2008, Annual Population Survey
Qualification No Qualifications NVQ Level 1 NVQ Level 2 NVQ Level 3 NVQ Level 4+ Levels 2008 no % no % no % no % no % Northamptonshire 64,200 15.0 68,900 16.1 69,300 16.2 62,600 14.6 111,600 26.1 Corby 4,700 13.6 6,500 18.9 5,600 16.2 4,300 12.6 6,600 19.2 Daventry 10,800 22.1 5,800 11.8 7,200 14.7 8,600 17.6 11,900 24.1 East Northants 5,100 9.8 6,300 12.0 7,200 13.7 9,800 18.6 17,900 34.0 Kettering 10,500 18.8 10,100 18.1 9,000 16.2 9,700 17.3 11,800 21.2 Northampton 18,700 14.3 24,200 18.5 22,600 17.3 16,600 12.7 34,800 26.6 South Northants 6,800 11.8 6,800 11.8 9,300 16.0 7,200 12.4 20,100 34.7 Wellingborough 7,600 16.2 9,200 19.8 8,400 17.9 6,400 13.7 8,700 18.5
Leicestershire 45,500 11.4 54,000 13.5 70,900 17.8 73,600 18.4 109,900 27.5 Warwickshire 38,500 12.0 37,200 11.6 53,000 16.5 53,400 16.6 103,800 32.3 Bedford 10,500 10.9 14,200 14.7 15,900 16.4 14,500 15.0 25,000 25.9 Central Beds 11,100 7.0 24,500 15.4 28,600 17.9 29,700 18.6 45,800 28.6 Cambridgeshire 28,500 7.6 53,000 14.1 55,500 14.8 45,200 12.0 143,500 38.2 Buckinghamshire 26,400 8.9 26,200 17.4 24,400 16.2 45,400 15.3 44,700 29.7 Milton Keynes 15,100 10.0 41,700 14.1 41,700 14.1 22,400 14.9 99,800 33.7 Oxfordshire 23,100 5.8 55,400 13.9 51,300 12.8 74,600 18.7 145,300 36.3 South East 450,100 8.9 733,100 14.5 451,700 16.6 432,600 15.9 691,700 25.4 East Midlands 359,400 13.2 428,600 15.7 811,200 16.1 874,200 17.3 1,590,600 31.5 England 3,888,200 12.3 4,484,300 14.2 5,084,400 16.1 5,014,100 15.8 9,078,700 28.7
NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy | 53 Table LM31 | Proportion of Working Age Population with No Compared to the 119 upper tier local authority Qualifications, Top Five Ranking of All Upper Tier Local Authority areas (excluding London) Northamptonshire Areas (Excluding London), 2008, Annual Population Survey fares badly being rated in 89th position having nearly three times the rate of working age people with no qualifications % with no qualifications - working age Rank compared to the top-ranked authority North Somerset 5.2 1 North Somerset (with 5.2%) [Table LM31]. Oxfordshire 5.8 2 The lower skills profile in Northamptonshire Rutland 5.9 3 is also highlighted by the fact that the Bracknell Forest 6.0 4 proportion of the working age population with West Berkshire 6.0 5 NVQ4+ (or at least degree level equivalent qualifications) in the county (26.1%) is also Northamptonshire 15.0 89 significantly lower than the regional (31.5%) and England (28.7%) rates. Aside from Bedford, Table LM32 | Proportion of Working Age Population with all the other surrounding counties / areas NVQ4+ Qualifications, 2008, Top Five Ranking of All Upper Tier also have a significantly higher proportion Authorities (Excluding London), Annual Population Survey of their working age populations with % with NVQ4+ - working age Rank NVQ4+ qualifications with Cambridgeshire recording the highest rate of 38.2%. Wokingham 44.1 1 Brighton and Hove 40.3 2 Compared to the 119 upper tier local authority areas (excluding London), Northamptonshire Surrey 40.0 3 occupies a middling position rated in 54th Windsor and Maidenhead 39.0 4 position having just over a half of the rate Cambridgeshire 38.2 5 of working age people with qualifications at Northamptonshire 26.1 54 NVQ4+ and above compared to the top-ranked area, Wokingham (with 44.1%) [Table LM32]. So, in summary, Northamptonshire has a significantly smaller proportion of higher skilled and a higher proportion of people with no qualifications than the England (and other comparator areas’) averages, which puts the county in a relatively disadvantaged position and this skills gap needs to be closed if Northamptonshire is to achieve its full potential.
54 | NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy GCSE Qualifications Table LM33 | Pupils Achieving 5 or More GCSE Passes at A high level of qualifications ensures that Grades A* - C and A* - G in 1997 and 2009. Northamptonshire, the workforce is able to meet the needs of Districts and Comparator Areas, DCFS employers. In 2009, 66% of young people in Northamptonshire taking GCSEs achieved 5 GCSE Attainment achieving 5+ A*-C achieving 5+ A*-G or more passes at grades A* - C, below the East Midlands (68.9%) and England (70%) positions. By district, Northampton (57.5%) and Wellingborough (61.6%) had the lowest 1997 % 2009 % % change 1997 % 2009 % % change proportion of pupils achieving such grades Northamptonshire 42.2 66.0 56.40 88.1 93 5.56 with South Northamptonshire (72.5%) having the highest proportion. The county also fared Corby 34.9 70.4 101.72 82.3 88.9 8.02 worse than all the surrounding comparator Daventry 45.1 69.9 54.99 92.8 95.1 2.48 areas with, Buckinghamshire having the East highest proportion of pupils achieving 5 Northamptonshire 43.6 72.3 65.83 91.1 97.4 6.92 or more passes at A* - C grades - 75.5%. Kettering 43.3 65.7 51.73 87.3 92.9 6.41 However, the proportion of pupils achieving Northampton 34.9 57.5 64.76 85.2 90.2 5.87 these grades has risen dramatically since 1997. South Corby in particular saw a doubling in the Northamptonshire 55.9 72.5 29.70 93.8 97.3 3.73 proportion of pupils getting 5 or more passes Wellingborough 41.7 61.6 47.72 86.1 90.3 4.88 at A* - C grades which rose from 34.9% to 70.4% between 1997 and 2009 [Table LM33]. Bedford 42.2 67.8 60.66 88.3 93.8 6.23 Bedfordshire (pre However, when looking at grades of 5 or more April 2009) 44.3 90.2 passes at grades A* - G, Northamptonshire Buckinghamshire 59.7 75.5 26.47 91.4 95.9 4.92 fared much better with 93% of the county’s Cambridgeshire 70.2 94.2 pupils taking GCSEs in 2009, higher than the England position (92.3%) though worse Central Bedfordshire 45.7 66.5 45.51 91.3 94.0 2.96 than the regional one (93.5%). By district, Leicestershire 44.7 68.6 53.47 88.7 95.4 7.55 Corby performed worst with 88.9% of pupils Milton Keynes 35.0 69.5 98.57 86.0 94.7 10.12 obtaining passes at this level with South Oxfordshire 47.2 67.0 41.95 88.5 94.0 6.21 Northamptonshire performing the best Warwickshire 44.5 69.1 55.28 89.0 94.4 6.07 (97.3%). Once again, Northamptonshire performed worse than all the comparator areas South East Region 47.7 70.1 46.96 89.8 94.1 4.79 which were led by Buckinghamshire (95.9% East Midlands Region 41.5 68.9 66.02 86.8 93.5 7.72 of pupils achieving such grades / passes). England 45.1 70.0 55.21 86.4 92.3 6.83
NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy | 55 Higher and Further Education • 61.5% of all leavers in employment in Northamptonshire were in graduate jobs 6 months The area enjoys a growing reputation after leaving in 2007/8 for innovation and knowledge-based • The most common sectors for leavers to be sectors. A major contributing factor employed in were Education (24.9%), Health in this growing reputation is the role (23.3%), Wholesale and Retail (10.8%) and of the University and other centres of Public Administration / Defence (9.6%). learning, including Moulton College. • Over half of leavers joined large employers The University of Northampton is the (employing 250 + employees), almost a only higher education institution in the third joined small companies (49 and less county and is a medium-sized University employees) and 17% joined medium- with over 12,000 students based on two sized employers (50-249 employees). Northampton-based campuses. In 2010, • The median salary for leavers from first the university employed 1,232 core staff of degree courses in full-time employment which nearly half (511) are academic staff, was £18,000 in 2007/8 compared to the overall UK median salary of £20,000. The main findings of the 2007/8 destination • The percentage of both Asian and Black report for university leavers from the leavers employed or in further study is 84% University of Northampton are as follows: which is below the university average (93%). • 89.9% of leavers were either working • The proportion of Black leavers in a graduate or studying (or both) in 2007/8, a job six months after leaving was only 49% drop from 93.8% in 2006/7. compared to the university average of 61.5%. • The School of Education had the highest • In general, similar proportions of leavers employment indicator of 98.3%. The Schools with a disability gained employment or of Arts had the lowest score of 82.9%. were in further study (or both) compared • The percentage of leavers known to be in to the university average. However, employment fell from 83.8% in 2006/7 leavers with a learning difficulty were to 80.2% in 2007/8 but this is still 5.3% less likely to attain a graduate job (45.6% above the national average of 74.9% compared to 61.5% for the university as a whole) [Figure LM4 and Table LM34].
56 | NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy Table LM34 | Employment Circumstances and 60.00% Further Study for University of Northampton 50.00% Leavers 2003/04 to 2007/08, University of 40.00% Northampton Leavers Destination Report
30.00% 2007/08 % of Leavers 20.00%
10.00%
0.00% Other Further Work and work only work only (including study only work only unemployed employment further study Full-time paid Assumed to be Part-time paid self-employed) Not available for voluntary/unpaid
Category No. of Leavers % of Leavers Employment Circumstance Full-time paid work only UoN National Overall (including self-employed) 1,003 53.8
Figure LM4 | Employment Circumstance and Further Study of Part-time paid work only 192 10.3 University of Northampton and UK Leavers – 2007/08 Voluntary/unpaid work only 10 0.5 Work and further study 289 15.5 Further study only 178 9.6 Assumed to be unemployed 134 7.2 Not available for employment 27 1.4 Other 27 1.6
NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy | 57 Unemployment Taking a longer time period, the unemployment rates for Northamptonshire Job Seekers Allowance(JSA) Claimant Count and districts between January 2006 to Levels of unemployment are one indication January 2010 is shown in Table LM35 as to the state of the local economy. In below. As can be seen, the unemployment January 2010, based on JSA claimant count rate in the county has more than doubled figures, Northamptonshire’s unemployment over this time period from 1.9% (2006) rate was 4.2% (or 17,775 people), the to 4.2% (2010). All the county’s districts same as the East Midlands and slightly have also seen a doubling or greater below the average for England (4.3%). increase in unemployment over this period, There is however, a wide variation between a proportionately larger rate of increase districts with South Northamptonshire than that seen in England or regionally. having the lowest unemployment rate Since the analysis in Table LM35 was of 2% and Corby the highest (6.1%). undertaken, there has been a significant fall From January 2009 to January 2010, in JSA claimants, which in July 2010 had unemployment in Northamptonshire fallen to 3.3% in Northamptonshire and the increased from 3.3% to 4.2% (a 26% rate of unemployment decline in the county increase) which is almost identical to the (between January to July 2010) is greater regional and England positions. By district, than that seen regionally or for England as the rate of increase in unemployment over a whole. Unemployment has fallen fastest the period has been largest in Northampton in South Northamptonshire and Daventry (38%) and Daventry (34%) [Figure LM5]. and least in Wellingborough [Table LM36].
6
5 4
3 January 2006 2 January 2007 1 January 2008 January 2009
0 January 2010
East East
Corby
South
England
Midland
Daventry
Kettering
Northampton
Wellingborough
Northamtonshire
Northamptonshire Northamptonshire
Figure LM5 | Unemployment (JSA Claimant Count) Northamptonshire, Districts, Region and England, Department for Work & Pensions
58 | NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy Table LM35 | Unemployment Rates (JSA Table LM36 | Unemployment Rates (JSA Claimant Count) Northamptonshire, Districts, Claimant Count) Northamptonshire, Region and England –Jan. 2006-Jan. 2010 Districts, Region and England, Department - Department for Work & Pensions for Work & Pensions – Jan-July 2010
Area January 2006 January 2007 January 2008 January 2009 January 2010
Northamptonshire 1.9 2.0 1.7 3.3 4.2
Corby 2.8 2.9 2.3 5.0 6.1 Unemployment Rate (%) - January 2010 Unemployment Rate (%) - July 2010 Change Jan Actual (%) - July 2010 Rate of Change (%) Jan-July 2010 Daventry 1.3 1.4 1.1 2.2 2.9 Northamptonshire 4.0 3.3 -0.7 -17.5 East Corby 5.9 4.8 -1.1 -18.6 Northamptonshire 1.5 1.6 1.4 2.8 3.3 Daventry 2.9 2.2 -0.7 -24.1 Kettering 1.8 2.1 1.9 3.6 4.1 East Northampton 2.4 2.5 2.2 3.8 5.2 Northamptonshire 3.2 2.6 -0.6 -18.8 South Kettering 4.0 3.4 -0.6 -15.0 Northamptonshire 0.7 0.8 0.7 1.6 2.0 Northampton 4.9 4.0 -0.9 -18.4 Wellingborough 2.0 2.5 2.1 4.1 4.6 South England 2.5 2.5 2.2 3.3 4.3 Northamptonshire 2.0 1.4 -0.6 -30.0 East Midlands 2.3 2.4 2.0 3.3 4.2 Wellingborough 4.5 4.0 -0.5 -11.1 England 4.1 3.5 -0.6 -14.6 East Midlands 4.0 3.4 -0.6 -15.0
NB - Rates for local authorities from 2010 onwards are calculated using the mid-2009 resident population aged 16-64.
NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy | 59 In January 2010, the male rate of 4.0 unemployment in Northampton was over twice 3.5 the female rate (5.7% male compared to 2.4% 3.0 female) which is roughly in line with both the regional (5.9% male, 2.4% female) and England 2.5 (6% males, 2.5% female) levels. Unemployment % 2.0 trends by gender for Northamptonshire and 1.5 districts between 2006 and 2010 are shown 1.0 in Figures LM6, LM7 and Appendices. 0.5 Breaking JSA claimants down into age 0.0 categories, in January 2010, 28% of 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 claimants in the county were aged 18-24 years, 54% were aged 25-49 years and 18% Northamptonshire Kettering Wellingborough aged over 50. Compared to the regional Corby Northampton England Daventry South Northamptonshire East Midlands and England averages, Northamptonshire East Northamptonshire had proportionately more unemployed people aged over 50 but fewer unemployed Figure LM6 | Female Unemployment Northampton, Districts, East Midlands and England – January 2006 to people aged between 18-24 (see Table January 2010, Department for Work & Pensions LM37). By district, in January 2010, South Northamptonshire had the highest proportion of unemployed people aged over 50 (24%) 9.0 whilst Corby had the highest proportion of 8.0 unemployed people aged 18-24 (32%). 7.0 6.0
% 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Northamptonshire Kettering Wellingborough Corby Northampton England Daventry South Northamptonshire East Midlands East Northamptonshire
Figure LM7 | Male Unemployment Northampton, Districts, East Midlands and England – January 2006 to January 2010, Department for Work & Pensions
60 | NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy Table LM37 | JSA Claimant Count by Age Northamptonshire, Districts and Comparator Areas January 2010, Department for Work and Pensions
Aged Aged Aged Aged Aged Aged Aged Aged Aged Aged January 2010 19 & 60 and 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 under over Northamptonshire 9.3 19.4 12.5 9.5 10.6 10.7 10.4 8.4 7.3 1.9 Corby 10.6 21.3 14.4 9.1 9.0 10.4 9.8 7.6 6.5 1.3 Daventry 8.7 19.0 10.7 10.2 9.4 11.2 11.7 9.5 8.2 1.6 East Northamptonshire 10.1 19.6 11.0 7.6 10.4 11.4 10.1 9.1 7.7 3.0 Kettering 10.2 18.7 13.0 9.6 11.0 10.2 10.1 7.8 7.2 2.2 Northampton 8.5 19.9 13.3 10.3 11.5 10.4 10.0 7.8 6.6 1.7 South Northamptonshire 8.2 16.2 10.1 7.8 10.5 11.0 12.1 12.0 9.3 2.7 Wellingborough 10.5 18.6 11.5 9.5 9.6 11.3 10.8 8.3 8.1 1.8 England 9.4 20.0 13.8 10.1 10.3 10.8 10.0 7.9 6.4 1.2 East Midlands 10.5 21.3 13.7 9.6 9.7 10.1 9.6 7.7 6.5 1.4
NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy | 61 50 Duration of Unemployment 45 A noticeable feature over the past year has 40 been the increase in long-term unemployment 35 due to the recession. The percentage of 30 25 unemployed people in Northamptonshire
% 20 unemployed for 6 months or more has nearly 15 doubled from 18.4% in January 2009 to 10 5 35.3% in January 2010; and the percentage 0 of those unemployed for 12 months or more
has increased from 6.2% to 15.1% over the
East
East Corby
South period. In this regard, Northamptonshire’s England
Daventry position has deteriorated compared to the Kettering Midlands regional and national positions. By district,
Northampton the problem of long-term unemployment
Wellingborough
Northamtonshire Northamptonshire Northamptonshire is particularly an issue in Northampton and Kettering [Figure LM8 and Table LM38]. 4-13 weeks 14>26 weeks 26-52 weeks 52+ weeks Since the analysis in Table LM38 was written, Figure LM8 | Duration of Unemployment. Northamptonshire, Districts, East Midlands and England – January 2010, Department for Work & Pensions the position of the long-term unemployed in Northampton has further deteriorated. Figures for July 2010 show that percentage Table LM38 | Duration of Unemployment (% of Unemployed). Northamptonshire, Districts, East Midlands and England – of unemployed people in Northamptonshire January 2010, Department for Work and Pensions unemployed for 6 months or more has increased to.37.5% and the percentage of January 2009 - % January 2010 - % those unemployed for 12 months or more of Unemployed of Unemployed has increased to 19.6%. [Table LM39] For more detailed information on the duration of unemployment for the county, districts, region and England (for January 2009 and January / July 2010) see Appendices. 4 - 13 weeks % 13 > 26 weeks % 26 - 52 weeks % 52+ weeks % 4 - 13 weeks % 13 > 26 weeks % 26 - 52 weeks % 52+ weeks % Northamptonshire 37.9 20.1 12.2 6.2 26.2 22.1 20.2 15.1 Corby 43.4 17.7 10.9 3.4 28.0 23.0 18.2 12.4 Daventry 40.9 18.7 9.0 2.3 27.8 23.8 18.5 10.6 East Northants 37.3 22.8 10.0 4.4 27.2 22.2 18.3 13.2 Kettering 36.6 20.8 13.3 7.8 24.0 22.1 19.5 18.9 Northampton 35.3 20.3 13.9 8.3 24.9 21.1 22.3 16.9 South Northants 40.3 19.6 9.1 3.7 29.7 22.2 19.7 10.2 Wellingborough 38.8 19.9 12.4 6.3 27.0 22.7 19.1 14.9 East Midlands 36.1 21.9 13.5 7.5 25.7 23.3 21.1 15.1 England 35.0 22.6 14.1 8.5 26.2 23.6 20.9 14.3
62 | NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy Table LM39 | Duration of Unemployment (% of Unemployed). Northamptonshire, Districts, East Midlands and England – July 2010, Department for Work and Pensions
July 2010 - % of Unemployed Area 4-13 weeks 13-26 26-52 52+ weeks (%) weeks (%) weeks (%) (%) Northamptonshire 22.5 20.3 17.9 19.6 Corby 24.9 21.3 17.6 16.4 Daventry 24.3 20.8 17.3 13.3 East Northamptonshire 22.0 18.9 18.0 20.3 Kettering 21.5 18.7 18.3 23.0 Northampton 21.2 21.2 18.5 21.3 South Northamptonshire 26.8 20.9 15.3 14.1 Wellingborough 22.6 18.8 17.0 19.5 East Midlands 21.6 20.3 19.4 20.7 England 23.1 21.2 19.7 18.2
NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy | 63 Table LM40 | Age and Duration of Unemployment, Age and Duration of Unemployment Northamptonshire, Districts and Comparator Areas – At county level, long-term unemployment January 2010, Department for Work and Pensions (here classified as being unemployed for 12 months or more) is most prevalent amongst the over 50s (21% of all claimants aged over 18-24 25-49 50+ 50) progressively reducing to 18% of all 25-49 year old claimants and to only 6% of 18-24 year old claimants [all figures are for January 2010]. Conversely, younger age groups are more likely to be unemployed for under 6 months - 76% of 18-24 year olds claiming for less than 6 months compared to 61% of 25-49 year olds and 57% of the over 50s. The
January 2010 under 6 months (%) 6-12 months (%) over 1 year (%) under 6 months (%) 6-12 months (%) over 1 year (%) under 6 months (%) 6-12 months (%) over 1 year (%) trends for Northamptonshire are replicated Northamptonshire 76 18 6 61 21 18 57 22 21 both regionally and for England as a whole. Corby 82 14 5 65 21 15 59 19 22 At district level, long-term unemployment Daventry 84 13 4 68 21 11 61 21 18 for all age ranges is particularly a problem in East Northants 77 17 6 66 18 16 64 19 16 Kettering and Northampton - 23% of the over Kettering 73 18 8 56 20 23 57 20 23 50s and 25-49 year old claimants and 8% of 18-24 year old claimants in Kettering; 23% of Northampton 71 21 8 58 23 20 53 24 23 the over 50s, 20% of 25-49 year olds and 8% South Northants 81 15 4 68 22 10 63 20 17 of 18-24 year old claimants in Northampton. Wellingborough 79 17 4 62 19 19 56 24 20 Northamptonshire has a greater proportion Leicestershire 75 19 6 63 21 16 62 21 17 of 50+ claimants being unemployed for more Warwickshire 77 18 5 63 21 16 61 22 17 than a year than all the other comparator Bedford 82 16 2 60 23 17 58 23 19 areas. Buckinghamshire has the lowest proportion of long-term unemployed Central in all age categories [Table LM40]. Bedfordshire 83 14 3 62 22 16 61 23 16 Cambridgeshire 75 18 7 62 21 16 59 22 19 Buckinghamshire 86 12 1 67 21 12 65 20 15 Milton Keynes 80 18 2 57 24 19 56 24 20 Oxfordshire 82 16 2 65 21 14 61 22 17 England 78 18 4 60 22 18 57 22 21 East Midlands 74 20 6 59 22 19 58 21 21 N.B. The percentage split for each age group by duration of claim adds up to 100%.
64 | NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy Unemployment by Ethnic Group • Asian unemployment was highest In January 2010, the White population in in Northampton (3.7%) and lowest Northamptonshire had an unemployment rate in East Northamptonshire; of 3.9%, the same as the regional average and • Other Ethnic Groups (principally Chinese) only marginally above the England average unemployment was highest in Kettering (3.8%). At district level, the White population and Corby (both 2.5%) and lowest in East in Corby had the highest unemployment and South Northamptonshire (0.8%). rate (6%) with South Northamptonshire having the lowest unemployment rate (2%). Compared to the surrounding comparator Compared to the wider comparator areas: areas, only Milton Keynes had a higher level of unemployment in the White population (4.4%). • Only Bedford (9.1%) and Milton Keynes (6.6%) had higher mixed race unemployment In Northamptonshire, Black/Black British than Northamptonshire (6.2%); people (8.5% unemployment in January • Asian unemployment in Milton Keynes 2010) and those of mixed race (6.2% (7.1%) and Bedford (5.7%) are both over unemployment) had higher unemployment twice the level in Northamptonshire (2.8%); rates than White people, whilst Asians (2.8%) Black unemployment in Buckinghamshire and Other Ethnic Groups - principally Chinese • (10.4%) and Bedford (9%) are both higher (1.9%) had lower unemployment rates. than in Northamptonshire (8.5%); By district: • Other Ethnic Groups (principally Chinese) unemployment was higher in • Mixed race unemployment was Bedford (2.6%), Milton Keynes (2.3%) highest in Northampton (8.9%) and Buckinghamshire (2.3%) than and lowest in Daventry (1.3%); Northamptonshire (1.9%) [Table LM41]. • Black/Black British unemployment was highest in Northampton (12%) and lowest in South Northamptonshire (1.3%);
NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy | 65 Table LM41 | JSA Unemployment by Ethnic Group – Northamptonshire, Districts and Comparator Areas – January, 2010, DWP and ONS
Area White Mixed Asian Black Other
No. % No. % No % No % No % Northamptonshire 15,275 3.9 320 6.2 435 2.8 750 8.5 120 1.9 Corby 1,970 6.0 15 5.0 15 2.5 25 8.3 5 2.5 Daventry 1,370 2.9 5 1.3 10 0.7 10 1.7 10 2.0 East Northamptonshire 1,635 3.3 15 3.0 5 0.5 20 3.3 5 0.8 Kettering 2,000 3.8 15 3.0 45 2.4 20 3.3 15 2.5 Northampton 5,475 4.8 205 8.9 265 3.7 530 12.0 75 2.2 South Northamptonshire 1,055 2.0 10 2.0 10 1.0 10 1.3 5 0.8 Wellingborough 1,765 4.3 55 6.9 80 2.9 140 9.3 10 2.0
Leicestershire 9,950 2.8 115 3.0 610 2.7 85 2.0 85 1.5 Warwickshire 10,550 3.5 170 5.5 430 3.1 170 5.0 65 1.6 Bedford 2,880 3.6 145 9.1 495 5.7 280 9.0 50 2.6 Central Bedfordshire 4,310 2.9 45 2.5 70 1.5 100 3.7 30 1.4 Cambridgeshire 8,890 2.6 110 2.1 140 1.2 125 1.9 90 0.9 Milton Keynes 5,620 4.4 165 6.6 615 7.1 350 5.6 80 2.3 Buckinghamshire 5,870 2.2 180 4.5 365 2.0 725 10.4 105 2.3 Oxfordshire 7,800 2.1 190 3.4 290 2.1 350 4.9 115 1.1 England 1,061,830 3.8 24,590 5.5 77,530 3.9 84,715 8.5 25,720 4.1 East Midlands 95,420 3.9 1,875 6.0 6,115 4.0 4,015 8.2 1,250 3.1
66 | NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy 5 ILO Measure of Unemployment Table LM42 | Notified Vacancies by occupation in The ILO measurement of unemployment is a Northamptonshire, 2009, Department for Work and Pensions wider definition than the JSA claimant count as it is not limited only to individuals who % of all notified Occupation 2009 have signed on as unemployed. Under the ILO vacancies definition, in June 2009, Northamptonshire 91 : Elementary Trades, Plant and has an unemployment rate of 6.8% which is Storage Related Occupations 7,609 17.22 less than the corresponding East Midlands 92 : Elementary Administration (7%) and England (7.1%) rates. Once again and Service Occupations 5,935 13.43 there are wide variations by district with South 82 : Transport and Mobile Machine Northamptonshire having an unemployment Drivers and Operatives 5,412 12.25 rate of only 2.1% with Corby having the 61 : Caring Personal Service Occupations 4,014 9.08 highest unemployment rate of 8.1%. 71 : Sales Occupations 3,969 8.98 Northamptonshire has a significantly higher 35 : Business and Public Service unemployment rate than surrounding areas Associate Professionals 2,766 6.26 with Buckinghamshire having an especially 41 : Administrative Occupations 2,562 5.80 low rate of 3.8%. Of all the comparator 81 : Process, Plant and Machine Operatives 1,759 3.98 areas only Warwickshire (6.9%) and Bedford (7.3%) have higher unemployment rates than 11 : Corporate Managers 1,456 3.29 Northamptonshire (all June 2009 figures). 72 : Customer Service Occupations 1,245 2.82 Compared to the 119 upper tier local authority 32 : Health and Social Welfare areas (excluding London), Northamptonshire Associate Professionals 1,219 2.76 holds a middling position (53rd) with the 52 : Skilled Metal and Electronic Trades 1,082 2.45 top ranked authority area, Herefordshire, 53 : Skilled Construction and Building Trades 951 2.15 having an unemployment rate of 3.2%. 54 : Textiles, Printing and Other Skilled Trades 766 1.73 Vacancies 34 : Culture, Media and Sports Occupations 592 1.34 Vacancies are an indication of the match 42 : Secretarial and Related Occupations 492 1.11 between skills and available jobs. The JobCentre 23 : Teaching and Research Professionals 413 0.93 records notified vacancies by occupation and the top three notified occupations in 12 : Managers and Proprietors in Agriculture and Services 404 0.91 Northamptonshire in 2009 were Elementary Trades, Elementary Administration and 62 : Leisure and Other Personal Transport / Machine Drivers [Table LM42]. Service Occupations 383 0.87 21 : Science and Technology Professionals 377 0.85 31 : Science and Technology Associate Professionals 318 0.72 24 : Business and Public Service Professionals 245 0.55 22 : Health Professionals 123 0.28 51 : Skilled Agricultural Trades 90 0.20 33 : Protective Service Occupations 8 0.02 5 As defined by the International Labour Organization, “unemployed workers” are those who are currently not working but are willing and able to work for pay, currently available to work, and have actively searched for work.
NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy | 67 Training So, the most highly qualified individuals It is essential that the labour force continues and those employed in more highly skilled to receive training to continue to meet the occupations (especially in the public sector needs of employers. The Annual Population ) were significantly more likely to have Survey records that between January and received training than those less well December 2008, 21.7% of the working qualified, in lower skilled jobs and working age population in Northamptonshire had in production industries and private services. received job related training in the previous13 (See Appendices for the detailed data tables). weeks before being surveyed. This figure is higher than both the East Midlands Finally, it must be noted that the network of (20.2%) and England (20%) averages. schools, colleges and the University involved in the delivery of post-14 education need Breaking down training received in the to create and maintain direct links with last 13 weeks in Northamptonshire by local small companies so as to enable a certain criteria reveals some interesting matching of future local skills needs with results. In 2008, training is much more the local supply of a newly skilled workforce likely to have taken place for those who: which is vital to successfully delivering economic growth and stable employment. • Worked in the public sector (49.2% having received training); Apprenticeships • Have NVQ4 (or equivalent) There were 3,256 apprenticeships in qualifications (41%); Northamptonshire in 2009/10 which was a 10.1% increase on the number of Were employed in managerial and • apprenticeships in 2008/9 (2,958). In numerical professional occupations (33.8%); terms, the sectors with the greatest number • Worked in service industries (30.4%); and of apprenticeships in 2009/10 were Business, • Were full-time employees (28%). Administration & Law (1,050 apprenticeships), On the other hand training is much less likely Retail / Commercial Enterprise (813 to have taken place for those people who: apprenticeships) and Health / Public Service / Care (418 apprenticeships). Between 2008/9 • Work in production (20.1%) or and 2009/10, the number of apprenticeships private services (21.4%); in Retail / Commercial Enterprise, Health, • Have NVQ3 and below Public Services & Care and Agriculture / qualification (21.8%); and Horticulture / Animal Care saw significant • Work part-time (24.6%). growth whereas apprenticeships in ICT, Leisure / Travel / Tourism and Construction all fell over the period [Table LM43]. At district level, 30% of all apprenticeships in the county in 2009/10 were in Northampton (984 apprenticeships) with a further 15.6% (508 apprenticeships) being in Kettering [Table LM44]. The numbers of apprentices by sector for 2007/8, 2008/9 and 2009/10 for each district is shown in Appendices.
68 | NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy Table LM43 | Apprenticeships in Northamptonshire 2007/8 – 2009/10 by Sector, NAS East Midlands
% Change % Change 2007/8 2008/9 2007/8 to 2009/10 2008/9 to Sector 2008/9 2009/10 01 - Health, Public Services and Care 400 354 -11.5 418 18.1 03 - Agriculture, Horticulture and Animal Care 77 72 -6.5 83 15.3 04 - Engineering and Manufacturing Technologies 488 344 -29.5 337 -0.2 05 - Construction, Planning and the Built Environment 514 410 -20.2 380 -7.3 06 - Information and Communication Technology 43 58 34.9 40 -31.0 07 - Retail and Commercial Enterprise 578 598 3.5 813 36.0 08 - Leisure, Travel and Tourism 117 155 32.5 133 -14.2 13 - Education and Training 0 4 ∞ 2 -50.0 15 - Business, Administration and Law 786 963 22.5 1050 9.0 Grand Total 3003 2958 -1.5 3256 10.1
Table LM44 | Apprenticeships by District in 2009/10, NAS East Midlands
% of all Apprenticeships District Number of apprentices in County Corby 323 9.9 Daventry 334 10.3 East Northamptonshire 368 11.3 Kettering 508 15.6 Northampton 984 30.2 South Northamptonshire 372 11.4 Wellingborough 367 11.3
NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy | 69 ‘strong and growing economy worth £13.5bn in 2007 with the potential to increase to over £20bn by 2021’ 70 | NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy 4 Business and Enterprise
This section on Business and Enterprise Corby (11.9%) and East Northamptonshire in Northamptonshire will look at business (11.4%). The lowest rate of growth was stocks, new firm formation, company survival seen in Wellingborough (2.7%). Of the rates, productivity (in terms of Gross Value comparator areas, Warwickshire (9.8%) Added or GVA) and conclude with a brief and Milton Keynes (9.3%) saw significantly analysis of workplace units in the county. higher rates of business stock growth than Northamptonshire over the period [Figure BE1]. Business Stocks In terms of the age of enterprises, in In 2008, Northamptonshire had 27,425 2009, two in five enterprises (41%) in enterprises. Over the period 2004-08, the Northamptonshire were 10 or more years old, growth in business stock in the county was around a quarter (27%) were aged between 6.8% (1,755 enterprises) which is below both 4 to 9 years old and nearly a third (32%) the regional (7.5%) and England (7.4%) rates were aged 3 years or less – see Appendices. of growth – see Figure BE1 and Appendices. These proportions, with minor variations, are During this time period, districts recording replicated at the regional and England levels. particularly strong business stock growth were
14 12 10 8 6 4 2
0
East
Corby
South
Daventry
Kettering
Northampton
Wellingborough
Northamtonshire
Northamptonshire Northamptonshire
Figure BE1 | Business Stock Percentage Change 2004-08. Northamptonshire, Districts, East Midlands and England, Office for National Statistics
NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy | 71 Enterprise Births, Deaths and For full details of business stocks, company births and deaths for Survival Rates Northamptonshire, county districts and In Northamptonshire, 3,105 new companies comparator areas see Appendices. (‘births’) were created in 2008, (11.5% of In relation to the survival rates of new the overall 2007 business stock) which is companies in Northamptonshire (and based a higher rate of new firm formation then on data for firms started in 2003) 93.4% of the East Midlands (10.8%) but lower than firms survived their first year, 78.5% their the England average (12%) By district, second year, 63.2% their third year, 54.8% the largest number of new companies their fourth year and 47.7% their fifth year. created in 2008 was in Northampton (870, Over the full five year period, the survival 12.2% of the 2007 stock).and the lowest rates of Northamptonshire companies in Corby (185, 11.4% of 2007 stock). are marginally below the East Midlands Compared to the wider comparator areas only average (47.7% compared to 47.9%) but Milton Keynes had a higher rate of company higher than the England average (46.4%) births (14.3% of 2007 stock) [Table BE1]. Compared to surrounding areas, only Milton Keynes had a lower company survival rate Northamptonshire had 2,510 company deaths over 5 years (43.3%). [see Table BE3 for (companies closing) in 2008 (9.3% of the full details and a district breakdown]. overall 2007 business stock) which is less than the East Midlands (9.4%) and England (9.7%). By district, Northampton had the highest rate of company deaths in 2008 (730 companies, 10.3% of 2007 stock) whilst South Northamptonshire (380 companies, 8.4% of 2007 stock) and Corby (130 companies, 8.4% of 2007 stock) had the lowest rates. Of the comparator areas, only Milton Keynes a higher company death rate in 2008 (9.6%) than Northamptonshire [Table BE2].
72 | NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy Table BE1 | Enterprise Births - Northamptonshire, Districts and Comparator Areas - 2005-2008, Office for National Statistics
Business births 2005 2006 2007 2008
% of % of % of % of Births 2004 Births 2005 Births 2006 Births 2007 2005 stock 2006 stock 2007 stock 2008 stock Northamptonshire 3,115 12.13 2,965 11.52 3,375 13.00 3,105 11.53 Corby 180 12.59 180 12.46 185 12.50 175 11.36 Daventry 435 11.52 455 12.07 455 11.77 435 10.90 East Northamptonshire 420 12.98 400 12.18 460 13.67 395 11.16 Kettering 365 11.93 355 11.51 400 12.82 365 11.35 Northampton 860 12.45 780 11.27 910 13.22 870 12.23 South Northamptonshire 525 12.27 470 10.84 570 13.13 525 11.63 Wellingborough 330 11.06 325 11.25 395 13.62 340 11.31
Leicestershire 2,890 11.79 2,685 10.86 2,840 11.42 2,725 10.70 Warwickshire 3,005 13.17 2,610 11.17 2,900 12.21 2,700 10.94 Bedfordshire 1,890 11.67 1,750 10.72 2,010 12.20 1,950 11.44 Cambridgeshire 2,800 11.65 2,615 10.70 3,015 12.15 2,485 9.65 Milton Keynes 1,220 13.27 1,155 12.39 1,355 14.63 1,385 14.27 Buckinghamshire 3,000 10.90 2,810 10.23 2,890 10.49 3,125 11.15 Oxfordshire 3,270 12.01 2,845 10.29 2,920 10.44 3,020 10.57 South East 42,555 12.03 39,195 11.01 42,320 11.85 40,745 11.11 East Midlands 19,140 12.99 17,715 11.81 18,610 12.25 16,900 10.79 England 241,410 12.81 225,120 11.82 246,700 12.82 238,895 12.02
NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy | 73 Table BE2 | Enterprise Deaths - Northamptonshire, Districts and Comparator Areas - 2005-2008, Office for National Statistics
2005 2006 2007 2008
% of % of % of % of Deaths 2004 Deaths 2005 Deaths 2006 Deaths 2007 Business Deaths 2005 stock 2006 stock 2007 stock 2008 stock Northamptonshire 2,675 10.42 2,360 9.17 2,525 9.73 2,510 9.32 Corby 140 9.79 125 8.65 120 8.11 130 8.44 Daventry 345 9.14 335 8.89 380 9.83 370 9.27 East Northamptonshire 320 9.89 275 8.37 320 9.51 335 9.46 Kettering 310 10.13 300 9.72 300 9.62 280 8.71 Northampton 815 11.8 670 9.68 695 10.09 730 10.26 South Northamptonshire 445 10.4 385 8.88 430 9.91 380 8.42 Wellingborough 300 10.05 270 9.34 280 9.66 285 9.48
Leicestershire 2,515 10.26 2,255 9.12 2,395 9.63 2,335 9.17 Warwickshire 2,225 9.75 1,960 8.39 2,370 9.98 2,175 8.81 Bedfordshire 1,595 9.85 1,460 8.95 1,435 8.71 1,515 8.89 Cambridgeshire 2,205 9.18 2,070 8.47 2,190 8.83 2,145 8.33 Milton Keynes 1,200 13.05 915 9.82 985 10.64 935 9.63 Buckinghamshire 2,715 9.87 2,390 8.71 2,645 9.6 2,360 8.42 Oxfordshire 2,510 9.22 2,300 8.32 2,465 8.81 2,250 7.88 South East 36,345 10.27 32,660 9.18 34,965 9.79 33,370 9.1 East Midlands 15,545 10.55 13,885 9.26 14,685 9.66 14,760 9.42 England 202,210 10.73 182,800 9.6 198,670 10.32 192,955 9.71
74 | NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy Table BE3 | Survival of Newly Born Enterprises – District, Counties and Unitary Authorities with the Region and Country by Births of Units in 2003 and their Survival, Office for National Statistics Births 2003 Survival 1 Year per cent 1 Year Survival 2 Year per cent 2 Year Survival 3 Year per cent 3 Year Survival 4 Year per cent 4 Year Survival 5 Year per cent 5 Year
Northamptonshire County 3,250 3,035 93.4 2,550 78.5 2,055 63.2 1,780 54.8 1,550 47.7 Corby 170 160 94.1 130 76.5 110 64.7 100 58.8 85 50.0 Daventry 485 450 92.8 345 71.1 285 58.8 245 50.5 210 43.3 East Northamptonshire 450 415 92.2 355 78.9 290 64.4 255 56.7 230 51.1 Kettering 385 365 94.8 295 76.6 235 61.0 205 53.2 180 46.8 Northampton 865 810 93.6 695 80.3 545 63.0 460 53.2 385 44.5 South Northamptonshire 545 510 93.6 450 82.6 365 67.0 320 58.7 285 52.3 Wellingborough 350 325 92.9 280 80.0 225 64.3 195 55.7 175 50.0
Leicestershire County 2,835 2,660 93.8 2,300 81.1 1,895 66.8 1,640 57.8 1,415 49.9 Warwickshire County 2,835 2,650 93.5 2,315 81.7 1,980 69.8 1,715 60.5 1,460 51.5 Bedfordshire County 2,010 1,890 94.0 1,620 80.6 1,370 68.2 1,195 59.5 1,035 51.5 Cambridgeshire County 2,745 2,525 92.0 2,150 78.3 1,805 65.8 1,565 57.0 1,365 49.7 Milton Keynes UA 1,305 1,205 92.3 1,015 77.8 780 59.8 660 50.6 565 43.3 Buckinghamshire County 3,215 3,020 93.9 2,555 79.5 2,125 66.1 1,845 57.4 1,615 50.2 Oxfordshire County 3,185 2,970 93.2 2,570 80.7 2,190 68.8 1,900 59.7 1,660 52.1 South East 41,855 39,045 93.3 33,515 80.1 27,755 66.3 23,740 56.7 20,570 49.1 East Midlands 17,975 16,735 93.1 14,165 78.8 11,605 64.6 9,935 55.3 8,615 47.9 England 236,220 218,665 92.6 184,105 77.9 149,935 63.5 127,740 54.1 109,520 46.4
NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy | 75 Table BE4 | Number of Business Start ups per 10,000 Population Entrepreneurialism: Number – Northamptonshire, Districts and Comparator Areas. 2002 to 2008, Department for Communities & Local Government of Business Start-ups per 10,000 Population 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 This is a measure of assessing the level Northamptonshire 59.1 63.7 59.7 59.3 55.4 62.1 56.5 of entrepreneurialism in an area. In 2008, Corby 32.4 40.5 41.2 41.8 41.4 42.2 39.4 Northamptonshire had 56.5 business start-ups Daventry 70.0 82.1 73.4 71.4 73.1 71.9 68.0 per 10,000 population which is a fall from the East 62.1 start-ups per 10,000 population recorded 52.0 71.6 60.2 64.6 60.1 67.9 57.7 Northamptonshire for the county in 2007. However this is in line Kettering 47.6 57.3 59.4 52.8 50.4 55.0 50.1 with expectations following on from the onset of the recession in 2008. The level of new Northampton 51.6 55.4 52.0 54.2 48.4 55.5 52.5 firm formation in the county is consistently South 70.2 83.5 79.4 76.2 66.6 78.4 72.0 significantly higher than the regional Northamptonshire average, as the East Midlands only saw 46.7 Wellingborough 95.9 60.1 57.0 55.3 53.9 64.9 54.6 start-ups per 10,000 population in 2008. Leicestershire 51.7 56.8 57.5 56.6 51.9 54.2 51.5 There is, however, a wide variation by Warwickshire 58.8 68.5 71.9 71.4 61.5 67.6 62.4 district. In 2008, Corby recorded a rate of Bedford 57.2 59.1 only 39 start-ups compared to the highs Cambridgeshire 55.1 59.7 63.4 59.0 54.4 61.8 50.2 of 72 (in South Northamptonshire) and 68 (in Daventry). Taken in tandem with the Milton Keynes 69.9 77.2 78.1 70.3 65.5 75.5 76.0 variances of self employment by district, this Buckinghamshire 74.6 84.7 85.3 78.0 72.6 74.1 79.7 shows that the level of entrepreneurialism is Oxfordshire 56.0 63.9 65.3 64.2 55.5 56.6 58.1 much higher in some districts than others. South East 59.3 64.4 67.8 64.5 58.9 62.9 60.0 Compared to surrounding areas, East Midlands 48.4 52.5 54.3 54.6 50.0 51.9 46.7 Northamptonshire has lower levels of business start-up rates. For example, in 2008, Buckinghamshire had 79.7 start-ups per 10,000 population and Milton Keynes 76. [Table BE4]
76 | NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy Business Link Support for In terms of jobs, 1,097 were created in these new businesses in 2009/10 (a 46.9% increase New Businesses over 2008/9), of which 422 jobs (or 38.5% An important role of Business Link is its of the total) were created in Northampton. support for new businesses and Table BE5 Overall, 17.9% of the new businesses below summarises key outputs by district in created in the region in 2009/10 were 2009/10. Overall, Business Link supported the in Northamptonshire as were 21.7% of creation of 492 new businesses in the county the new jobs created [Table BE5]. in 2009/10 (a 2.5% increase compared to 2008/9), with 212 businesses being created in Northampton (43% of the total).
Table BE5 | Business Link Support for New Businesses – Number of Businesses and Jobs Created - 2009/10, Business Link
SUPPORT FOR NEW Corby Borough Council Daventry District Council East Northants District Council Kettering Borough Council Northampton Borough Council South Northants Ditrict Council Borough Council of Wellingborough Northants 2009/10 Northants 2008/09 Numeric Change 2008/9 - 2009/10 % Change 2008/9 - 2009/10 East Midlands 09/10 % Northamptonshire of Region 09/10 BUSINESSES No % No % No % No % No % No % No % No No No % Number of new 28 5.69 39 7.93 55 11.2 71 14.4 212 43.1 43 8.74 44 8.94 492 480 12 2.5 2751 17.9 businesses created Number of jobs 38 3.46 73 6.65 241 22 124 11.3 422 38.5 131 11.9 68 6.2 1097 747 350 46.9 5046 21.7 created Number of new businesses surviving 24 5.17 45 9.7 30 6.47 56 12.1 219 47.2 52 11.2 38 8.19 464 209 255 122.0 2309 20.1 for a minimum of 12 months Number of new businesses surviving 1 2.5 3 7.5 2 5 6 15 22 55 4 10 2 5 40 14 26 185.7 173 23.1 for 12 months and showing growth
NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy | 77 1 Table BE6 | East Midlands Unitary / Upper Tier Local Authority Gross Value Added (GVA) Area GVA, 2007, Office for National Statistics Gross Value Added (GVA) is a measure of % Share of economic value. It can be used to measure GVA 2007 % Share of Regional Regional how much value is being created in specific (£m) UK GVA Ranking GVA localities (at county (or NUTS3) level). UK 1,245,735 - - In 2007, the latest year for which figures East Midlands 77,497 6.2 - are available2, the Northamptonshire Northamptonshire 13,499 1.1 17.4 1 economy was worth £13.5bn and the East Leicestershire CC Midlands economy was worth £77.5bn. & Rutland (exc. this means that the county accounted for Leicester) 12,278 1.0 15.8 2 17.4% of the region’s GVA (compared with Nottinghamshire only 15% of the regions population) and (exc. Nottingham) 11,477 0.9 14.8 3 is the top-ranked contributor to the East Derbyshire Midlands at unitary or upper tier (county (exc. Derby) 11,276 0.9 14.6 4 level) local authority area - see Table BE6). Lincolnshire 9,679 0.8 12.5 5 Northamptonshire’s contribution to overall Nottingham 7,536 0.6 9.7 6 regional GVA has increased since 2005, Leicester 6,241 0.5 8.1 7 from 16.5% in 2005 to 17.4% in 2007. Derby 5,511 0.4 7.1 8 However, comparing Northamptonshire with all surrounding comparator areas over a longer Table BE7 | Overall GVA Northamptonshire and Comparator time period (2002-07) the county records Area - £million, Office for National Statistics only a middling performance having a much lower rate of overall GVA growth over the Area 2002 2007 Change % Change period when compared to the best performing UK 957,094 1,245,735 288,641 30.2 county, Cambridgeshire (see Table BE7). East Midlands 59,844 77,497 17,653 29.5 GVA per head Northamptonshire 10,250 13,499 3,249 31.7 There are other ways to represent GVA. Leicestershire Comparing the county to a base of UK GVA CC & Rutland 8,851 12,278 3,427 38.7 per head = 100, in 2007, Northamptonshire Warwickshire 7,739 10,335 2,596 33.5 is about average (99.8). This is higher than Bedfordshire 5,531 7,093 1,562 28.2 the East Midlands index of 88.3 but lower Cambridgeshire CC 8,731 12,598 3,867 44.3 than the England index of 102.5 (see Figure BE2). Within the region itself however, Milton Keynes 5,172 6,651 1,479 28.6 the county contributes less GVA per head Buckinghamshire CC 8,662 10,935 2,273 26.2 than the three large East Midlands cities of Oxfordshire 12,311 15,375 3,064 24.9 Nottingham, Derby and Leicester, although England 805,501 1,045,257 239,756 29.8 these are clearly larger urban areas with more South East 137,629 176,541 38,912 28.3 1 Gross value added is the difference between output and intermediate Notes: based on NUTS 3 principally individual counties and unitary authorities consumption for any given sector/industry. That is the difference between the value of goods and services produced and the cost of raw materials and other inputs which are used up in production. 2 Using official ONS statistics - http://www.statistics. gov.uk/pdfdir/gva1209.pdf - using Table NUT3.1.
78 | NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy businesses. Northamptonshire does however contribute significantly more GVA than the 140 upper tier local authority shire counties. 120 100 Tracking Northamptonshire’s performance 80 60 since 1995, the county’s GVA per head UK=100 index has fallen from a high 104.8 in 40 1999 to 99.8 in 2007 (see Figure BE3). 20 0 Looking at GVA per head in monetary terms
(as opposed to indexing), Northamptonshire Derby Derby) England performs better than the East Midlands and Leicester Leicester) Lincolnshire the rest of the upper tier local authority shire Nottingham East Midlands
counties in the region, but worse than the Derbyshire (excl Nottinghamshire Northamptonshire (excl Nottingham) three regional cities and the England average. Leicestershire (excl Moreover, in 2007, Northamptonshire had only UK Index Area two thirds the GVA per head of neighbouring Figure BE2 | GVA per head Indices at Current Basic Prices – Milton Keynes (£19,901 - Northamptonshire, East Midlands Unitary / Upper Tier Local Authority Areas, East £29,112 – Milton Keynes) – see Appendices. Midlands, England and UK, 2007, Office for National Statistics
Between 2000 and 2005, Northamptonshire 150 150 saw a lower rate of productivity growth (of 140 140 2.5% per annum) compared to the 2.7% per annum growth seen in the East Midlands. 130 130 Looking to the future, GVA projected 120 120 forecasts from 2010 to 2021 produced by 110 110 Cambridge Econometrics (as part of the 100 100 Strategic Northamptonshire Economic Action 90 90 Plan refresh) found that, if no additional intervention takes place to encourage 80 80 employment and productivity growth in the 70 70 county, productivity growth (measured in 60 60 terms of GVA per employee) between 2010 and 2021 would be 1.9% per annum in the county. 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Whilst this is projected to be the same as the England Derbyshire (excl Derby) regional growth rate, it would be below the East Midlands Nottinghamshire (excl Nottingham) UK level of 2% growth per annum forecast. Derby Nottingham Lincolnshire UK Leicester Northamptonshire Leicestershire (excl Leicester)
Figure BE3 | GVA per head Indices – East Midlands Unitary / Upper Tier Local Authority Areas, East Midlands, England and UK, 1995 to 2007, Office for National Statistics
NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy | 79 Table BE8 | GVA by Sector in Northamptonshire In 2007, the largest sectors by share of overall and England 1995 and 2007 Compared GVA in Northamptonshire were Business Services and Finance (29.1%), Distribution, Transport and Communication (26.4%), 1995 2007 1995-2007 Public Administration including Education and Health (18.5%) and Production (18.2%). Sector Production and Distribution make up a larger percentage share of total GVA in Northamptonshire compared to the England Actual GVA £m GVA % Total Actual GVA £m GVA % Total Change % change average, whilst Business Services and Public NORTHAMPTONSHIRE Administration make up a smaller percentage share of the county’s total GVA compared Agriculture, 121 1.9 95 0.7 -26 -21.5 Forestry & Fishing to the England average – see Table BE8. Production 1 726 27.0 2,460 18.2 734 42.5 Looking at the period 1995 to 2007, Construction 354 5.5 959 7.1 605 170.9 Construction and Business Services have Distribution, seen the largest percentage growth in GVA in transport & 1 625 25.4 3,568 26.4 1,943 119.6 Northamptonshire (similar to the position in communication England) with Production growing at a much Business services lower rate (though the growth of Production 1 457 22.8 3,926 29.1 2,469 169.5 & finance GVA in Northamptonshire was just over Public admin, three times the average for England over the education, health 1 117 17.5 2,490 18.4 1,373 122.9 period 42.5% (Northamptonshire) compared & other services to 13.7% (England). Between 1995 and 2007, Total GVA 6 401 100 13,499 100 GVA from Agriculture declined by over a fifth in both England and Northamptonshire. ENGLAND Agriculture, 9,050 34,807.7 6,994 0.7 -2056 -22.7 Forestry & Fishing Production 131,247 24.1 149,272 14.3 1,8025 13.7 Construction 27,171 5.0 67,387 6.4 40,216 148.0 Distribution, transport & 122,410 22.5 229,074 21.9 106,664 87.1 communication Business services 137,636 25.3 354,093 33.9 216,457 157.3 & finance Public admin, education, health 116,615 21.4 238,438 22.8 121,823 104.5 & other services Total GVA 544,128 1,045,257
80 | NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy Workplace Units 40 35 Northamptonshire In 2008, Northamptonshire had 315,000 30 East Midlands England employees working in 29,351 establishments 25 (excluding farm based agriculture). By 20 broad sector, nearly a third (31.7%) of 15 workplace units in the county are in Business 10 % of total Services / Banking etc, with a quarter 5 being in Distribution / Retailing / Hotels / 0
Restaurants. A comparison of the proportion etc of workspace units by industrial sector & health
for Northamptonshire, the East Midlands restaurants Transport & Construction Other services Energy & water and England is shown in Figure BE4. Manufacturing Communcation
Of these 29,351 workplace units, 25,022 Banking, finance, ins Agriculture & Fishing Distribution, hotels &
(85%) employ between 1-10 employees; Public admin,education 3,333 (11%) employ between 11-49 Broad Industrial Group employees; 787 (3%) employ between 50- Figure BE4 | Proportion of Workplace Units by Broad Sector for 199 employees; and 209 (1%) employ 200 Northamptonshire, East Midlands and England, Annual Business Inquiry or more employees. This percentage split is replicated at the regional and England levels. Overall, the average employee size 90 per workplace unit is 10.7, very close to the 80 regional (10.9) and England (10.6) values. 70 60 However, whilst 85% of workplace 50
0% 40 units in Northamptonshire employ 1-10 30 employees these workplaces only account 20 10 for 24% of overall employees in the county. 0 Conversely, whilst only 1% of workplace 1-10 11-49 50-199 200+ units in Northamptonshire employ 200 Employees or more employees, nearly a third (32%) Workplace Units Employees of all employees in the county work in them - see Figure BE5). Once again, these Figure BE5 | Proportion of Workplace Units and findings are replicated at the regional Employees by Company Size for Northamptonshire in 2008, Annual Business Inquiry and England levels [Figure BE5].
NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy | 81 A sectoral breakdown of the proportion of workplace units and employees 35 data units in Northamptonshire by broad 30 employees sector is shown in Figure BE6. 25 20 Looking at the average employee size per % 15 10 workplace unit by sector, Northamptonshire 5 has fewer employees per unit working in 0 Public Administration than the regional or national average, a result of the fact that there are no major government departments Ins etc or regional public sector agencies located restaurants Transport & Public admin, Construction
Other services in the county. However, the public sector Manufacturing Energy & water Banking, finance, Communications
education & health still accounts for over 1 in 5 jobs in the Distribution, hotels/ Agriculture & fishing county. Conversely, the county has larger numbers of employees per unit working in Manufacturing and in Transport sectors that Broad Industrial Sector the region and England – see Figure BE7.
Figure BE6 | Northamptonshire - Workplace Units and Employees VAT and/or PAYE Workplace Units by Broad Sector in 2008, Annual Business Inquiry An alternative ONS data source which looks at all workplace units (i.e. including agriculture) which are VAT registered and/or PAYE based Northamptonshire by sector and the data for Northamptonshire, 60 East Midlands the East Midlands and England is summarised 50 England in Figure BE8 and Table BE9 right. 40 30 20 10
Average Number of 0 Employees per Data Unit Ins etc restaurants Transport & Public admin, Construction Other sectors Other services Manufacturing Energy & water Banking, finance, Communications education & health Distribution, hotels/ Agriculture & fishing
Sector
Figure BE7 | Average Size of Workplace Units Broad Sector – Northamptonshire, East Midlands, England, Annual Business Inquiry
82 | NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Retail Health Property Education Wholesale Production Accomm & Agriculture Construction Food services Motor Trades Info & Comm Finance & Ins Business Admin
Northamptonshire & Support services Arts, Entertainment Transport & Storage East Midlands Rec & other services
England Public Admin & defence Prof, Scientific & Technical
Figure BE8 | All VAT and/or PAYE Workplace Units by Broad Industry Group, 2009, Office for National Statistics
Table BE9 | All VAT and/or PAYE Workplace Units by Broad Industry Group – Northamptonshire, East Midlands, England, 2009, Office for National Statistics
Northamptonshire East Midlands England Sector Units % of all units % of all units % of all units Agriculture 1,395 4.6 5.9 4.2 Production 2,255 7.4 7.9 6.1 Construction 3,780 12.3 12.0 11.3 Motor Trades 1,095 3.6 3.6 3.0 Wholesale 1,730 5.7 5.4 5.0 Retail 2,800 9.1 11.1 11.0 Transport & Storage 1,470 4.8 4.0 3.3 Accommodation & Food Services 1,695 5.5 6.3 6.6 Information & Communications 1,570 5.1 4.3 6.5 Finance & Insurance 570 1.9 2.4 2.6 Property 885 2.9 3.2 3.6 Professional, Scientific & Technical 3,845 12.6 10.8 13.6 Business Admin & Support Services 2,595 8.5 6.9 7.7 Public Admin & Defence 605 2.0 1.6 0.9 Education 890 2.9 2.7 2.4 Health 1,380 4.5 5.4 5.1 Arts, Entertainment, Recreation 2,085 6.8 6.5 7.2 Total 30,645 100 100 100
NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy | 83 As can be seen, Northamptonshire has a below establishments; Kettering a concentration regional and national proportion of Retail, in Construction (14.2%) and Retail (11.5%) Accommodation / Food Services and Finance establishments; Daventry a concentration in / Insurance establishments, but a higher Professional, Scientific and Technical (15.3%), than regional and national proportion of Agricultural (9.5%) and Transport (5.6%) Business Administration / Support and Public establishments; and East Northamptonshire Administration / Defence establishments. a concentration in Construction (14%) and Agricultural (6.7%) establishments There are also noticeable variations by district. Corby has a particular concentration of There is also a clear urban / rural split in Production (14.4%, nearly twice the county the county which can be seen in Figure average), Transport (7.1%) and Accommodation BE9 and Table BE10. The rural areas have and Food Services (7.3%) establishments an above county average concentration in compared to the Northamptonshire Agricultural and related and Professional, average. South Northamptonshire has an Scientific & Technical establishments; above county average concentration in whist urban areas have an above average Professional, Scientific and Technical (16.9%) concentration in Retailing, Wholesale, and Agricultural (9.2%) establishments; Accommodation / Food Services, Public Northampton has a concentration in Retail Administration and Health establishments. (11.3%), Finance and Insurance (2.6%), Public Administration (4.6%) and Health Finally, of the overall 30,645 establishments (5.9%) establishments; Wellingborough in Northamptonshire, 1,405 (or 4.6%) a concentration in Wholesale (6.7%) are public sector organisations with the remainder being private sector enterprises.
22.5 Northants - Total 20 Northants - Urban 17.5 15 Northants - Rural 12.5 10 % units 7.5 5 2.5 0 Retail Health Services Defence Services Property Technical Education Wholesale Production Agriculture Construction Motor Traders Finance & Ins Information & Accomm & Food Support Services Communications Business Admin & Transport & Storage Arts, Entertainment, Rec & Other Public Admin & Prof, Scientific &
Figure BE9 | All VAT and/or PAYE Workplace Units by Broad Industry Group – Northamptonshire Urban / Rural Split, Office for National Statistics
84 | NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy Table BE10 | All VAT and/or PAYE Workplace Units by Broad Industry Group – Northamptonshire Urban / Rural Split, Office for National Statistics
Northamptonshire Northamptonshire Northamptonshire Sector - Total - Urban - Rural
% of all % of all % of all Units units Units units Units units Agriculture 1,395 4.6 95 0.5 1,305 10.3 Production 2,255 7.4 1,510 8.4 745 5.9 Construction 3,780 12.3 2,145 12.0 1,635 12.9 Motor Trades 1,095 3.6 675 3.8 420 3.3 Wholesale 1,730 5.7 1,145 6.4 585 4.6 Retail 2,800 9.1 1,995 11.1 805 6.4 Transport & Storage 1,470 4.8 870 4.9 600 4.7 Accommodation & Food Services 1,695 5.5 1,095 6.1 600 4.7 Information & Communications 1,570 5.1 865 4.8 705 5.6 Finance & Insurance 570 1.9 395 2.2 170 1.3 Property 885 2.9 530 3.0 355 2.8 Professional, Scientific & Technical 3,845 12.6 1,845 10.3 2,000 15.8 Business Admin & Support Services 2,595 8.5 1,555 8.7 1,035 8.2 Public Admin & Defence 605 2.0 520 2.9 90 0.7 Education 890 2.9 505 2.8 385 3.0 Health 1,380 4.5 975 5.4 400 3.2 Arts, Entertainment, Recreation & Other Services 2,085 6.8 1,235 6.9 850 6.7 Total 30,645 100 17,955 100 12,685 100
NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy | 85 Business Confidence The survey also asks whether companies expect their turnover to improve, stay the The Quarterly Economic Survey conducted same or worsen over the next 12 months. The by the Northamptonshire Chamber graph below shows how the expectations have charts the opinions of local businesses, changed in the past three years and show including their views on current levels the impact of the recession in 2008 when of trading and future expectations. levels of confidence were at their lowest. The most recent survey (Quarter 1, 2010) shows that domestic sales / bookings of over 70% of manufacturing companies and over 60% of service companies have increased or stayed the same. This compares with 47% and 51% respectively in Quarter 1, 2009.
120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2007 2007 2007 2007 2008 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010
Services Manufacturing
Figure BE10 | Business confidence - amount of businesses expecting their turnover to ‘improve or stay the same over the next 12 months’, Northamptonshire Chamber Quarterly Economic Survey
86 | NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy | 87 ‘strategic location with excellent road connections with the rest of the UK’
88 | NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy 5 Land Buildings and Infrastructure
This section of the report considers This is especially so in a rapidly growing employment land and buildings, county such as Northamptonshire to enable other commercial land, housing jobs growth to keep pace with new housing. and other infrastructure including Using Valuation Office (VOA) data, Tables transport and broadband. LBI1 and LBI2 set out the amount and distribution of industrial and commercial Employment Land floorspace in Northamptonshire as at 2008. This indicates that the county has a total It is essential that there is a range of suitable stock of floorspace of around 5.3 million employment land to provide premises for square metres [Table LBI1 and LBI2]. new, existing and expanding businesses.
Table LBI1 | Commercial and Industrial Floorspace (units), VOA 2008
Number Retail Premises Offices Commercial Offices Other' Offices Factories Warehouses All Bulk Classes Other Bulk Premises Corby 394 210 168 42 516 218 1,402 64 Daventry 403 345 301 44 475 409 1,760 128 East Northamptonshire 597 295 237 58 409 329 1,750 120 Kettering 752 404 346 58 415 332 2,005 102 Northampton 1,718 1,335 1,170 165 1,120 797 5,143 173 South Northamptonshire 358 491 439 52 544 281 1,814 140 Wellingborough 557 387 331 56 568 470 2,080 98 Northamptonshire 4,779 3,467 2,992 475 4,047 2,836 15,954 825
Table LBI2 | Commercial and Industrial Floorspace (000sqm), VOA 2008
Floorspace (000sqm) Retail Premises Offices Commercial Offices Other' Offices Factories Warehouses All Bulk Classes Other Bulk Premises Corby 113 50 41 9 1,044 726 1,973 41 Daventry 56 62 54 7 335 1,162 1,644 29 East Northamptonshire 100 45 34 11 368 445 984 26 Kettering 170 93 73 20 449 447 1,192 34 Northampton 472 438 360 79 819 1,655 3,460 76 South Northamptonshire 51 70 58 12 300 263 712 29 Wellingborough 135 82 65 16 514 680 1,441 30 Northamptonshire 1,097 840 685 154 3,829 5,378 11,406 265
NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy | 89 Table LBI3 | Completed employment The East Midlands Regional Spatial Strategy land, 2007/08, RSS AMR07/08 Annual Monitoring Report 2007/08 indicates that 225,697sq.m (approximately 2.5 million sq. ft.) of commercial floorspace was completed in 2007/08 in Northamptonshire. This represents 31%
Land (hectares) of all commercial floorspace developed B1 (office & light industry) 6.8 across the East Midlands and is, by far, the most significant county in terms of new B2 (general industry) 3.9* commercial space developed [Table LBI3]. B8 (storage & distribution) 19.2 Mixed 27.3 With respect to future employment land commitments Table LBI4 highlights that Total 57.3 the county has a total of 328.7ha of * no data for Corby land currently in the planning system. Theoretically, this has the potential to Table LBI4 | Employment land with support up to 58,504 jobs based on standard permission, 2007/08, RSS AMR07/08 job density assumption and an equal split of mixed use space to B use class. Land (hectares)
B1 (office & light industry) 58.9 B2 (general industry) 20.5 B8 (storage & distribution) 27.0 Mixed 222.3 Total 328.7
90 | NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy Table LB15 sets outs the changes in new Table LBI5 | Change in Industrial & Commercial floorspace development recorded between Floorspace 2005-2008, Northamptonshire 2005 and 2008 at district and borough level. Strategic Employment Land Assessment, 2009 Since 2005, there has been a significant increase of some 843,000 sqm of industrial and commercial floorspace in the county with the majority of this (744,000 sqm) being in Area warehousing, which reflects the importance of the logistics sector to the county’s economy. Offices (000sqm) Factories (000sqm) Warehouses (000sqm) Total (000sqm) Office floorspace has also grown between 2005 Northamptonshire 209 -110 744 843 and 2008 (by 209,000 sqm) with 43% of this Corby 9 -9 98 98 growth (90,000sqm) being in Northampton Daventry 18 26 188 232 East In contrast, there has been a significant 13 -9 81 85 Northamptonshire decline in factory / industrial floorspace in the county (particularly in Northampton) Kettering 31 10 205 246 due to the contraction of manufacturing Northampton 90 -92 47 45 employment which is in line with similar South 30 -8 2 24 national and regional. trends over the period. Northamptonshire Wellingborough 18 -28 123 113 Take up of floorspace has remained high in recent years, particularly in the warehousing sector. This has led to a Table LBI6 | Take up of employment sites 2001-2008, high proportion of forecast demand for Northamptonshire Strategic Employment Land Assessment, 2009 floorspace requirement already having been satisfied, as can be seen in Table LBI6. Area Offices (sqm) Industrial (sqm) Warehousing (sqm) (sqm) Total
Northamptonshire 47,000 -300,000 1,471,000 1,215,000 Corby 0 -57,000 261,000 204,000 Daventry 15,000 3,000 350,000 368,000 East Northamptonshire 8,000 -30,000 125,000 103,000 Kettering 17,000 -16,000 254,000 255,000 Northampton -9,000 -158,000 284,000 117,000 South 11,000 15,000 45,000 71,000 Northamptonshire Wellingborough 5,000 -57,000 152,000 100,000
NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy | 91 The 2009 Strategic Employment Land Table LBI7 | Gross existing and potential supply Assessment (SELA) indicates, however, that capacity (sqm), Northamptonshire SELA 2009 there is a significant net shortfall, in particular Office Industrial Distribution of existing flexible office space, across the county to meet the demands of future growth Constrained land 2,193,890 3,973,152 3,822,859 to 2031. Table LBI7 demonstrates the potential High Quality 552,964 751,384 1,531,386 supply capacity of land in the county for Poorer Quality 1,640,926 3,221,768 2,291,475 B-use purposes (office, distribution, storage Unconstrained Land 306,503 548,024 442,693 and warehousing) however it is clear from the statistics that a large proportion of that High Quality 271,943 352,726 394,119 land is constrained and of poor quality. Poorer Quality 34,560 195,298 48,574 Total 2,500,392 4,521,176 4,265,552 The SELA assessment indicates unconstrained, high quality land in Northamptonshire Table LBI8 | B-Use Supply – Demand Balance 2001- will provide a total of only 1,018,788 2031 by District, Northamptonshire SELA 2009 sqm, against a predicted requirement of 2,942,643 for the county to 2031. Table LB18 examines the supply – demand balance Total Supply Total High Quality supply (without planning more closely across Northamptonshire Area sqm – 2001- Demand sqm or other major 2031 – 2001-2031 constraints) Northamptonshire 11,287,121 2,942,643 1,018,788* Corby 1,366,405 521,455 113,060 Daventry 2,233,666 391,492 313,971 East Northamptonshire 987,130 164,739 0 Kettering 2,313,972 356,619 130,565 Northampton 669,964 788,085 210,505 South Northamptonshire 1,799,767 275,791 195,776 Wellingborough 1,916,217 444,462 54,909
92 | NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy Table LB18 demonstrates that districts and take-up across Northamptonshire’s industrial boroughs across Northamptonshire have markets in 2009 was 2,856,000 sq ft, which insufficient, good quality, unconstrained was 62% down on 2008. Transactions in supply capacity to provide the projected Northampton alone were 55% fewer in 2009 demand for floorspace, even without planning than 2008. Furthermore, the report anticipates for flexibility and choice in the market. This that the lack of sites developed in 2009 will can be seen clearly from Figure LBI1, which lead to a shortage of available high-quality demonstrates the scale of the challenge accommodation in subsequent years. for employment land development. Enquiries for commercial properties through As such, in order to meet the identified the county’s investment promotion agency shortfall in high quality employment totalled 453 in the year 2009-10, indicating land, a significant quantity of land and a good level of private sector interest in floorspace will need to be identified and locating in the county, compared with 483 brought forward for development. in 2008-09. These figures indicate that the impacts of the recession are still being felt in An initial portfolio of 74 sites has been the commercial property market. The Lambert identified within the SELA, including Smith Hampton report does indicate however strategic distribution, sector specific and that development activity will pick up in strategically important sites, such as land 2011 as transaction levels begin to recover. at Wellingborough, Corby and Kettering, Daventry International Rail Freight Terminal (DIRFT), Silverstone, and various sites within Northampton Central Area. The 74 2,500,000 identified sites are recommended in SELA to be tested through the planning process 2,000,000 against policy, sustainability, deliverability 1,500,000
criteria, and together they offer a potential SQM land supply of circa 1500 hectares. 1,000,000 A recent study by Lambert Smith Hampton 500,000 examines the property market in the county 0
from a commercial perspective. Overall
East
Corby
South
Daventry
Kettering
Northampton
Wellingborough
Northamptonshire Northamptonshire
District / Borough
Total Supply sqm 2001-2031 Total Demand sqm 2001-2031 High Quality supply (without planning or other major constraints)
Figure LBI1 | B-Use Supply / Demand 2001/31 by District, Northamptonshire SELA 2009
NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy | 93 Other Commercial Land Housing The retail sector has also suffered in the Housing is a complex issue and one which economic downturn. Nationally, the level of has complex interactions with the economy. vacant retail units has risen to 7.6% in October 2010. In Northamptonshire, the level of void Northamptonshire’s former role as a Growth units varies greatly from town to town. The Area meant that over 125,000 new homes highest rates are recorded in Northampton, were planned to be constructed between Irthlingborough, Wellingborough and 2001 and 2026. However, with the demise Rushden where more than 15% of units of the Regional Spatial Strategy, housing are currently vacant. Irthlingborough in targets are now being reconsidered at a particular has seen a startling increase in local level through work on the two Joint the past year. Levels of voids are lower in Core Strategies. It is clear that the area Oundle, Thrapston and Kettering [Table LBI9]. will remain a location of choice for both business and residents and so it is likely that high levels of growth will continue. Table LBI9 | Retail vacancy (% void units, Q2/3 2009 and 2010, Local Authorities There are two Housing Market Areas (HMAs) in Northamptonshire, as defined by work Area Q2/3 2009 Q2/3 2010 Change undertaken on behalf of the Regional Northampton 18.4% 19.8% 1.4% Assembly. Both HMAs have published Strategic Housing Market Assessments which considered Irthlingborough 5.3% 17.1% 11.8% a wealth of housing-related information, Wellingborough 16.0% 15.9% -0.1% including some primary survey data and Rushden 14.4% 15.0% 0.6% came up with a series of recommendations. Raunds 16.4% 13.7% -2.7% Housing profile: Type and tenure Higham Ferrers 3.2% 7.6% 4.4% Northamptonshire has a wide range of Oundle 5.3% 5.3% 0.0% housing types and tenures. Most recent data Thrapston 4.8% 4.8% 0.0% shows that there are 290,000 dwellings in Kettering 5.2% 4.2% -1.0% the county (2009, Experian). The highest proportion of flats are found in the county town of Northampton. The more rural areas have a higher proportion of detached dwellings, and higher levels of owner occupation. Levels of private and social renting vary greatly across the county. For example, in Corby it ranges from 1% of the stock in Great Oakley ward to 78% in Exeter ward. High levels of renting can reflect a more transient population. Detailed information is available in the Appendices.
94 | NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy Council tax information shows the number 200,000 of properties in each tax band, with Band A 180,000 signifying the lowest value properties, to Band 160,000 H at the highest end of the scale. Corby has 140,000 by far the largest proportion of properties 120,000 100,000 in the lowest bands: over 75% are in the 80,000 bottom two bands (bands A and B). South 60,000 Northamptonshire has the lowest proportion in 40,000 these two bands at 28%. Daventry and South 20,000 0 Northamptonshire have the highest proportion 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 of properties in the highest bands – detailed information is available in the Appendices. Northamptonshire England & Wales House prices and impact of recession Figure LBI2 | Average house prices, August Housing costs are a major factor in 2000 to August 2010, Land Registry determining how a local economy functions. An attractive housing provision can attract and retain employees and employers. It can be difficult to attract and retain people to an area if prices are too high and a range of house types is not available. High house prices can also make it difficult for young people to buy a house in the area in which they grew up. Within the context of the national housing market, prices in Northamptonshire are relatively modest, although there are considerable variations across the county. Land Registry data shows that the average house price in Northamptonshire in August 2010 was £138,115, having fallen from a peak of over £162,000 two years earlier. Prices in the county are on average below the national average, which peaked at £183,275 in January 2008 before falling to £167,423 in August 2010 [Figure LBI2].
NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy | 95 The recession has affected not only house 8 prices, but also the turnover of homes. Between 1996 and 2006, data shows that 7 in October, an average of 1,500 homes were sold in the county. This dropped by 50% 6 to just over 700 in October 2008 when the 5 impact of the recession became evident.
4 There is a large variation in both house prices and turnover rates across the county. 3 Historically house prices in the rural districts of South Northamptonshire, Daventry and 2 East Northamptonshire have been higher than the urban areas. In September 2009, 1 the gap between the highest and the lowest 0 average prices in the districts was £105,000 (South Northamptonshire: £220,000, Corby: 2008 2004 2005 2006 2007 2009
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 £115,000). The map below shows house prices in 2009 at a more local level. They Northamptonshire England highlight even bigger variations in average price, from a low of £75,000 in Castle and Figure LBI3 | Lower quartile house price to lower Queensway wards in Wellingborough, to quartile earnings, 1997 to 2009, CLG a high of over £500,000 in Washington ward in rural South Northamptonshire. Table LBI10 | TOP 5 Lower quartile The ratio of lower quartile house prices to house price to lower quartile earnings lower quartile earnings is a common measure upper tier authorities, 2009, CLG of affordability. Across the county, the ratio has risen dramatically, from 3.41 in 1998 to a Rank 2009 peak of 7.30 in 2007, meaning that a dwelling 1 Kingston upon Hull 3.53 that cost 3.41 times a lower quartile income in 2 Stoke-on-Trent 3.74 1998 would in 2007 cost 7.30 times the same 3 Blackburn with Darwen 3.96 level of income. This is above the national peak of 7.25. Since 2007, the house price 4 Nottingham 4.11 ratio has declined in most areas as a result of 5 Durham 4.19 the recession [Figure LBI3 and Table LBI10]. 34 Northamptonshire 6.02 Within Northamptonshire, there is a large difference between the districts, with Corby remaining more affordable (ratio of 5.10), rising to a high of 8.27 in Daventry. This compares to a national range of a low of 3.04 in Copeland to a high of 11.98 in Elmbridge (and 19.57 in Kensington and Chelsea).
96 | NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy Affordability Table LBI11 | Lower quartile house price to lower As table LBI11 shows, housing affordability quartile earnings, 1998 to 2009, CLG has deteriorated significantly over the last decade, with house prices rising faster than earnings and the average 1998 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 age of first-time buyers increasing. Corby 2.67 5.48 5.80 6.62 5.97 5.10 Daventry 4.10 6.88 8.02 8.46 9.03 8.27 The Barker Review of Housing Supply in East 2004 highlighted the increasing problem 3.43 8.01 7.88 7.96 7.98 6.53 Northamptonshire of affordability at a national level. It found that demand was outstripping supply, with Kettering 2.69 7.66 7.53 7.78 7.70 5.93 the result that the prices of the available Northampton 3.53 6.88 7.22 7.16 7.21 5.63 stock increased due to market forces. It South 5.40 9.64 8.60 10.27 9.69 7.78 considered how house price inflation has Northamptonshire made home ownership in the private sector Wellingborough 2.89 6.25 6.63 6.98 7.04 5.70 increasingly unaffordable for many groups Northamptonshire 3.41 7.01 7.15 7.30 7.28 6.02 in the population, particularly first-time 3.29 6.46 6.69 7.03 6.59 5.68 buyers, with knock-on impacts on rent levels East Midlands in the private sector and on demand for England 3.65 6.82 7.12 7.25 6.98 6.28 social housing. The review warns that the poor functioning of the UK housing market is destabilising the economy and recommends a substantial increase in housing supply in order to curb house price inflation. The provision of future housing is key to ensuring that the county delivers strong economic growth by continuing to attract inward investment and provide opportunities for local people and first time buyers. There are also links to construction and other sectors that rely on a buoyant housing market. Planning Policy Statement 3 (Housing) states that an adequate supply of affordable housing in particular is important for the performance of the local economy. Table LBI12 shows the rate of housebuilding across the county. It shows that the rate of dwelling completions peaked in 2006/07 at
NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy | 97 4,417 dwellings, an increase of 23% on rates East (5,500 dwellings). Recent appeal decisions in 2001/02 and prior to the Government’s at Daventry (Monksmoor - 1,000 dwellings) Sustainable Communities Plan, published in and Wellingborough (Upper Redhill - 3,000 2003. However, the impact of the recession dwellings) have also given the go-ahead to began to be felt in 2007/08 when completions development subject to the resolution of began to fall, before a more dramatic fall in outstanding matters. The viability of major 2008/09 to 2,472, and 1,911 in 2009/10. developments is increasingly an issue for the private sector, but also for the public sector Northamptonshire’s former role as a in terms of the infrastructure burden. Growth Area meant that over 125,000 new homes were planned to be constructed The planning system can play a role in between 2001 and 2026. However, the increasing the supply of affordable housing, demise of the Regional Spatial Strategy, creating a greater choice of housing types has meant that housing targets are now and more balanced communities. Recent being reconsidered at a local level through Government policies have backed this up work on the two Joint Core Strategies. through additional funding such as ‘Kickstart’ which is investing £20.8m in Corby in 2010/11, Northamptonshire is well placed to take providing an additional 640 affordable advantage of the economic recovery when it dwellings in round 1, and a further £3.2million happens. Local authorities and house builders to provide an additional 67 homes in round 2. are expecting completion levels to gradually recover , before climbing dramatically . There Section 106 agreements (legal are a number of large development sites which agreements with developers) can also have already secured planning permission, provide more affordable housing. including the sustainable urban extensions at Wellingborough East (3,100 dwellings), Priors Between 2001 and 2009, 4,430 new affordable Hall in Corby (4,100 dwellings) and Kettering dwellings have been provided in the county, with levels at their highest in 2007/08 [LBI13].
98 | NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy Table LBI12 | Dwelling completions, 1998 to 2009, Joint Planning Units 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 TOTAL
Corby 96 184 422 293 369 573 457 476 365 3,235 Daventry 417 435 266 247 360 295 319 183 231 2,753 East Northamptonshire 467 606 482 609 661 504 536 170 286 4,321 Kettering 572 572 572 572 572 572 685 422 185 4,724 Northampton 1,084 1,208 1,009 1,623 1,626 1,824 1,020 707 876 10,977 South Northamptonshire 647 993 431 595 310 257 248 219 760 4,460 Wellingborough 306 175 280 415 345 392 475 295 180 2,863 NORTHAMPTONSHIRE 3,589 4,173 3,462 4,354 4,243 4,417 3,740 2,472 2,883 33,333
Table LBI13 | Number of affordable dwellings provided, 2001/08, CLG 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 TOTAL
Corby 10 10 10 20 0 0 0 50 Daventry 120 90 20 40 100 20 50 440 East Northamptonshire 50 100 60 100 70 40 120 540 Kettering 40 70 30 90 110 220 170 730 Northampton 150 70 180 240 310 260 480 1,690 South Northamptonshire 60 50 40 110 60 50 50 420 Wellingborough 70 20 10 110 40 80 230 560 Northamptonshire 500 410 350 710 690 670 1,100 4,430
NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy | 99 Housing need 8,000 7,000 The economic downturn has had little 6,000 impact on the number of households 5,000 needing new homes. With house building 4,000 3,000 rates falling, projections of future housing 2,000 requirements continue to rise. Any short 1,000 term cooling in the housing market is 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 therefore not an answer to the affordability problem or to meeting needs arising from Corby Daventry East Northamptonshire Kettering Northampton South Northamptonshire demographic trends and rising incomes. Wellingborough The number of households on the Figure LBI4 | Number of households on the waiting list at 1 April, CLG waiting list has fallen over the past five years, from a high of 20,000 in 2005 to 15,000 in 2009 [Figure LBI4]. Table LBI14 | Vacant dwellings, 2009, HSSA from CLG Empty homes Falling house prices and increasing difficulties in obtaining mortgages is likely to result in an increase in the number of empty homes as owners struggle to sell them, let them and or/bring them up to Total dwellings Total vacant Total dwellings % vacant dwellings Private sector vacant dwellings >6months an acceptable standard for occupation. Corby 25,297 238 0.9% 41 Daventry 32,442 733 2.3% 394 In Northamptonshire, there were 8,800 East Northamptonshire 36,810 977 2.7% 734 vacant dwellings in 2009, around half of which had been vacant for more than six Kettering 40,789 1,049 2.6% 687 months. The largest numbers of vacant Northampton 90,850 3,958 4.4% 1,719 dwellings are in Northampton [Table LBI14]. South 35,729 764 2.1% 313 Northamptonshire Wellingborough 32,748 1,118 3.4% 412 Northamptonshire 294,665 8,837 3.0% 4,300
100 | NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy Decent homes The BRE stock model projects the proportion of The Government’s aim is to ensure that private sector dwellings that are non-decent 70% of vulnerable households are living in through one or more of the following: lacking decent homes by 2010. There are regional, thermal comfort, having a category 1 hazard, sub-regional and local authority strategies being in disrepair or lacking modern facilities. and policies in place to tackle non-decent The maps below show where both the highest homes occupied by vulnerable households, % of non-decent homes are located and also increase energy efficiency and reduce fuel where there is a high % of dwellings that are poverty. There are recognised links between non-decent and occupied by vulnerable people. the social impact of poor housing in relation There are also particular challenges to achievement, health and employment in providing affordable housing opportunities (Social Impact of Poor Housing, in rural areas [Figure LBI5]. National Housing Federation March 2010)
% OF DWELLINGS THAT ARE NON-DECENT % OF DWELLINGS THAT ARE NON-DECENT AND OCCUPIED BY VULNERABLE PEOPLE
Figure LBI5 | Non-decent dwellings in Northamptonshire 2007, Hi4em
NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy | 101 Accessibility and infrastructure most important routes. The county also lies on A reliable and effective transport network three major rail lines: the Midland Mainline, is crucial to the economic success of the West Coast Mainline and Chiltern line, and Northamptonshire. The county is located at links to Eurostar at St Pancras [Figure LBI6]. the centre of England and occupies a key strategic location on many of the nation’s Car ownership rates are fairly high in the key transport networks. The M1 linking the county. In 2008, there were 425,000 vehicles county to London and the greater south east, registered within the county, a rise of 11% and to the north and the Midlands, and the since 2002 (Department for Transport). A14 linking to the east coast are two of the
Map Key
Towns SHEFFIELD AND LEEDS NORTH AND NORTHEAST PORTS Railway Stations Railway Links M1 A1(M) Northamptonshire Biodiversity Corridor
Derby
MML A43 Nottingham East Midlands Stamford
A1(M) Leicester A43 A6 Market Birmingham Eurohub Harborough Peterborough Corby Birmingham M1 International A1(M) M6 A14 WCML Thrapston Rugby Kettering Rugby Huntingdon D.I.R.F.T. Coventry A43 A14 A14 Long Buckby Wellingborough A1(M) M45 A45 Rushden M11 Northampton A45 Felixstowe M40 A428 Bedford Cambridge Harwick Towcester MML A6 Banbury M1 A5 A421 A1(M) M11 A43
Brackley Milton Keynes King’s Sutton London Stansted Luton Luton Airport Parkway CHILTERN LINE WCML M1
London St.Pancras Bicester Marylebone London Heathrow Oxford London Southampton Euston London Heathrow Waterloo London Gatwick London Eurostar Ashford Eurostar
Dover
Figure LBI6 | Strategic transport network, Northamptonshire Strategy for Growth, 2007, NCC
102 | NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy However, in Northamptonshire 12% of households do not have access to a car or van (2001 census). Levels of households who 25% lack access to a car or van vary greatly across the county, from a high of 22% in Corby to 20% a low of 5% in South Northamptonshire. The range is even greater when looking at 15% smaller areas; from a high of nearly 60% of households lacking access to a car in the Spring 10% Burroughs area of Northampton, to less than 1% in the villages around Blakesley in South 5% Northamptonshire, Brixworth in Daventry and parts of Barton Seagrave in Kettering. Levels 0% in rural areas tend to be lower. It should be 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 recognised that this data is now fairly out-of Figure LBI7 | Percentage increase in bus date, but it is useful in looking at trends. patronage since 2003/04, BVPI102, NCC Road-based public transport is also important. For the third successive year the total number of bus journeys originating in the county 125 has increased, with over 19 million journeys 120 being made in 2006/07 - an increase of more than 20% since 2003/04. However, it should 115 be noted that this growth is from a low base. Given the projected growth in the county 110 and the potential increase in trip demand, 105 for road-based public transport to retain its existing share of journeys, an increase in 100 passenger journeys of 60% on 2001 levels, 95 would be required by 2021 (approximately 27 million), and by 100% by 2031 [Figure LBI7]. 90 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Northamptonshire has consistently seen the highest levels of traffic growth in England Northamtonshire England between 1998 and 2006. [Figure LBI8] Figure LBI8 | Traffic growth index, Department for Transport This growth in traffic has been higher on some parts of the network. The maps below highlight the congestion ‘hot spots’ on the network, both in 2004/5 and a forecast for 2021, showing that the situation will significantly worsen. Additional growth to 2026 and beyond will further compound this congestion and increase the number and severity of these hot spots. These hot spots are clustered around the main urban areas and Northampton in particular.
NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy | 103 Map Key North Severely Over Capacity Over Capacity Approaching Capacity Market Northamptonshire Biodiversity Harborough A6 Corridor Corby A43
To Birmingham M1
M6 A14 Kettering Thrapston A14
WCML A45 To Coventry A6 A43 M45
Wellingborough Rushden A45
Northampton A45 Daventry To Cambridge A45 A428
Bedford
Towcester
To Barnbury M1 A5
A43
A6 Milton MML Keynes M40 Brackley
WCML
Luton Luton Airport Parkway To Oxford To London
Figure LBI9 | Congestion ‘hotspots’, Northamptonshire Transport Models, NCC (2005)- 2004/05 Source: Northamptonshire Transport Models, Northamptonshire County Council (2005)
104 | NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy Map Key North Severely Over Capacity Over Capacity Approaching Capacity Market Northamptonshire Biodiversity Harborough A6 Corridor Corby A43
To Birmingham M1
M6 A14 Kettering Thrapston A14
WCML A45 To Coventry A6 A43 M45
Wellingborough Rushden A45
Northampton A45 Daventry To Cambridge A45 A428
Bedford
Towcester
To Barnbury M1 A5
A43
A6 Milton MML Keynes M40 Brackley
WCML
Luton Luton Airport Parkway To Oxford To London
Figure LBI9 | Congestion ‘hotspots’, Northamptonshire Transport Models, NCC (2005)- 2021
© Crown Copyright. Northamptonshire County Council: Licence no. 100019331. Source: Northamptonshire Traffic Models, Northamptonshire County Council (2005)
Over capacity indicates that the junction is operating beyond its existing capacity.
NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy | 105 Travel to work This data shows that: Northamptonshire is fairly self-contained with 77% of its residents working within the county. • Corby and Northampton have the most Of those residents who commute outside the self-contained labour markets, with county for work, the largest numbers travel over 75% of their residents remaining to Milton Keynes and Oxfordshire. These within their own district for work two destinations have remained the most • Daventry, East Northamptonshire and popular since 2001. Significant increases South Northamptonshire have much lower have been seen in movements to both levels of self-containment at around 40% Hertfordshire and Warwickshire [Table LBI15]. • The largest movements are from Daventry and South Northamptonshire The Appendices contain information on to Northampton, and from South the flows of residents living within each Northamptonshire to Milton Keynes of the Northamptonshire districts and how these have changed since 2001. • East Northamptonshire shows the most dispersed pattern of movements All local authorities have seen Table LBI15 | Place of work for Northamptonshire • their level of self-containment fall residents - change over time, APS 2008 between 2001 and 2008, indicating 2001 flow 2008 flow Change increased mobility and possibly a lack of local choice in the job market Northamptonshire 83.1% 77.1% -6.0% • Flows from Daventry to Northampton, Milton Keynes 4.1% 5.4% +1.3% and South Northamptonshire to Oxfordshire 1.7% 2.8% +1.1% both Milton Keynes and Cherwell Hertfordshire 0.5% 2.1% +1.6% (Oxfordshire) have increased Bedfordshire 1.5% 1.8% +0.3% • Flows from Kettering to Corby Warwickshire 0.4% 1.5% +1.1% and from Wellingborough to Northampton have decreased Cambridgeshire 0.8% 0.9% +0.1% Leicester 0.4% 0.6% +0.2% In terms of the workforce employed in Northamptonshire, the appendices Leicestershire 1.2% 0.6% -0.6% show where they travel from, and Peterborough 1.3% 0.6% -0.7% how this has changed since 2001. The largest increase has been in the proportion of people living in Rugby travelling to work in Daventry The largest decreases have been in the proportion of Northampton’s workforce that travel in from Wellingborough, and in the proportion of South Northamptonshire’s workforce that travel in from Cherwell
106 | NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy Slow Spot (under 2mbps) Broadband / ICT Not Spot (No High-speed fibre optic broadband provision Broadband) is critical in developing and attracting further investment in the knowledge and technology intensive sectors. These have the potential to create additional jobs and wealth and increase productivity levels as well as enabling people to access services and work from home. They also have the potential to utilise opportunities provided by the low carbon agenda. Northamptonshire generally achieves download speeds above 2mbps. However, parts of Northampton and Kettering still suffer from slow download spots and are still someway off achieving the target set within the Government’s Digital Britain report of every home having at least 2mbps broadband by 2012. The Government has further pledged that super-fast broadband will be Figure LBI10 | Broadband ‘Not Spot’ and ‘Slow Spot’ Map, Broadband-notspot.org.uk, December 2009 available to every home in the UK by 2020. Rushden, Daventry, Great Oakley and Weston Favell have all been highlighted for upgrades to BTs super-fast broadband connections which will mean download speeds of up to 40Mb per second, potentially rising to 60Mb per second [Figure LBI10].
NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy | 107 Slow Spot (under 2mbps)
Not Spot (No Broadband)
‘High population growth, double the national average’
108 | NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy 6 People and Communities
This section of the report will cover the topics Between 2001-09, the level of population of demography and economic inclusion. growth seen in Northamptonshire is almost double the growth rate for England (4.9%). Demography This increase has been driven by a combination of strong migration, both international and Demographic Change 2001-09 domestic, and demographic change – as In 2009, Northamptonshire had an overall Northamptonshire has a relatively young population of 683,800 people, a rise of population and thus natural change is making 52,800 people from the 2001 level (a rise an increasing impact on population growth. of 8.4%). By district, between 2001-9, the largest percentage population increase was seen in South Northamptonshire (a rise of 11.3% or 9,000 people) which is due in part to the Grange Park development adjacent to Northampton. The smallest increase was seen in Corby (3.2% increase or 1,700 people) – see Table PC1.
Table PC1 | Northamptonshire and Districts Populations 2001-09 (000’s), ONS mid year estimates
mid-2001 mid-2009 change % change Corby 53.5 55.2 1.7 3.2% Daventry 72.0 78.9 6.9 9.6% East Northamptonshire 76.8 85.0 8.2 10.7% Kettering 82.3 90.1 7.8 9.5% Northampton 194.4 210.5 16.1 8.3% South Northamptonshire 79.5 88.5 9.0 11.3% Wellingborough 72.5 75.7 3.2 4.4% Northamptonshire 631.0 683.8 52.8 8.4% England 49,396.50 51,809.70 2413.2 4.9%
NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy | 109 Compared to the surrounding areas, only Overall the proportion of the population in Milton Keynes (11.3%) and Cambridgeshire the older age groups in Northamptonshire (9.4%) have seen higher growth rates (18.3%) is lower than the national average than Northamptonshire over the period. (19.3%), and considerably lower in the Nationally, Northamptonshire was the case of Northampton (16.4%). 11th fastest growing county / unitary area between 2001 and 2009- see Table PC2. Table PC4 shows the changing population of children and older people between 2001 The overall Northamptonshire population and 2009. Over this period, the number of (for 2009) broken down by selected age children in Northamptonshire has grown by bands is shown in Table PC3 with a more 1.7% (as opposed to a -1.9% decline seen detailed breakdown shown in Appendices. in England as a whole). However, there is The figures show that Northamptonshire has considerable variation by district which ranges a relatively young population, with a higher from a 7.4% growth in children numbers in percentage of children than the national East Northamptonshire down to a decline average (19.8% against 18.7%). The proportion of -4.2% in children numbers in Corby. of children is particularly high in Corby, East Northamptonshire and South Northamptonshire. In contrast, there has been a large increase in the numbers of older people between 2001 and The proportion of the population that is 2009 with the increase in Northampton (20.1% of working age in the county is the same or 20,900 people) being almost twice the England as the national average (61.9%). However, average of 10.9%. All of the county’s districts there are large differences, from a high have seen a growth in the numbers of older of 64.4% in Northampton to a low of people over the period with this ranging from a 59.9% in East Northamptonshire. high of 32% growth in South Northamptonshire to a low of 12.5% growth in Corby.
Table PC2 | Top 10 Growing Areas in England 2001-9, ONS mid year estimates
Local Authority: County / Unitary 2001 2009 % change Rank
Nottingham UA 268.900 300.800 11.9 1 Milton Keynes UA 212.700 236.700 11.3 2 Bristol, City of UA 390.000 433.100 11.1 3 Rutland UA 34.600 38.400 11.0 4 North Somerset UA 188.800 209.100 10.8 5 Swindon UA 180.100 198.800 10.4 6 Thurrock UA 143.300 157.200 9.7 7 York UA 181.300 198.800 9.7 8 Cambridgeshire 554.700 607.000 9.4 9 Peterborough UA 157.400 171.200 8.8 10 Northamptonshire 631.000 683.800 8.4 11
110 | NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy Table PC3 | Northamptonshire Population by Selected Age Bands (000’s), 2009 Mid year estimates, Office for Notional Statistics
Working age Older people 65M/ Children 0-15 16-64/59F 60F and over No % No % No % Corby 11.5 20.8 33.7 61.1 9.9 17.9 Daventry 15.5 19.6 48.3 61.2 15.0 19.0 East Northamptonshire 17.5 20.6 50.9 59.9 16.6 19.5 Kettering 17.9 19.9 54.8 60.8 17.3 19.2 Northampton 40.5 19.2 135.5 64.4 34.5 16.4 South Northamptonshire 17.8 20.1 53.8 60.8 16.9 19.1 Wellingborough 14.9 19.7 45.9 60.6 14.8 19.6 Northamptonshire 135.7 19.8 423.1 61.9 125.0 18.3 England 9,704.4 18.7 32,083.3 61.9 10,022.0 19.3
Table PC4 | Northamptonshire Population Change by Selected Age Bands (000’s), 2001 and2009 Mid year estimates, Office for National Statistics
Children 0-15 Older people 65M / 60F and over
2001 2009 % change 2001 2009 % change Corby 12.0 11.5 -4.2 8.8 9.9 12.5 Daventry 15.4 15.5 0.6 11.4 15 31.6 East Northamptonshire 16.3 17.5 7.4 13.2 16.6 25.8 Kettering 16.9 17.9 5.9 14.7 17.3 17.7 Northampton 40.5 40.5 0.0 30.6 34.5 12.7 South Northamptonshire 16.9 17.8 5.3 12.8 16.9 32.0 Wellingborough 15.4 14.9 -3.2 12.5 14.8 18.4 Northamptonshire 133.4 135.7 1.7 104.1 125 20.1 England 9893.4 9704.4 -1.9 9039.6 10,022.00 10.9
NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy | 111 To show the relative concentrations of Figure 1 maps the percentage of children in children and older people by Lower Super each LSOA with Figure 2 mapping out the Output Area (LSOA) in Northamptonshire, percentage of older people in each LSOA.
Figure PC1 | Percentage of Children (aged 0-15) by Lower Super Output area (LSOA) in Northamptonshire - 2009
112 | NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy Figure PC2 | Percentage of Older People (65+ Males / 60+ Females) by Lower Super Output area (LSOA) in Northamptonshire - 2009
NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy | 113 Gender England By gender, Northamptonshire’s population is Northamptonshire very similar to the national average (males Wellinborough 49.6%, females 50.4%). With the exception of South Northamptonshire Daventry, the female population outnumbers Northampton the male population in all areas [Figure PC3]. Kettering Ethnicity East Northamptonshire In 2007, 7.8% of the counties population Daventry were from ethnic minorities (53,200 people), Corby an increase from 31,000 people (4.9%) in 48.5% 49.0% 49.5% 50.0% 50.5% 51.0% 2001. The largest non-White ethnic group are Asians who made up 3.3% of the Figure PC3 | NorthamptonshireFemale PopulationMale by Gender, 2009 county’s population (22,100 people in 2007) Mid year estimates, Office for National Statistics followed by the Black group who made up 1.8% (12,400 people) [Figure PC4].
25 Northampton has the largest ethnic minority population (12.1%) followed by 20 Wellingborough (11.3%), with Corby having the least (3.8%) [all 2007 figures] [Table PC5]. 15 Comparing 2001 and 2007, there has been 10 substantial growth in all non-white ethnic groups in Northamptonshire. The Chinese 5 NUMBER OF PEOPLE IN 000S population has over doubled (132.4% growth; Mixed Asian Black Chinese from 3,400 people in 2001 to 7,900 people in 2007); the Asian population has grown by 2001 2007 72.7% (from 12,800 people in 2001 to 22,100 Figure PC4 | Non-White Ethnic Groups people in 2007) and the Black population has Population Change Northamptonshire grown by 61% (from 7,700 people in 2001 2001-07, Office for National Statistics to 12,400 people in 2007). Whilst the largest populations of all non-white ethnic groups are concentrated in Northampton, significant growth in other districts is also evident.
114 | NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy Between 2001 and 2007, the Chinese In terms of age, the White population has population is estimated to have grown by an older age profile having a significantly 250% in both South Northamptonshire and higher proportion of people in the oldest Wellingborough; the Asian population is age categories than non-White ethnic estimated to have grown by 400% in South minority groups - see Figure PC5. Northamptonshire and 280% in Daventry; and the black population is estimated to have grown by 400% in Corby and 350% in East Northamptonshire, although total numbers are small - for full details see Appendices.
Table PC5 | Ethnic Minority Population 2007 Northamptonshire and Districts, Office for National Statistics All groups White % White Mixed % Mixed Asian % Asian Black % Black Chinese % Chinese % Ethnic
Corby 55.2 53.1 96.2 0.6 1.1 0.9 1.6 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.2 3.8 Daventry 79.1 74.8 94.6 0.9 1.1 1.9 2.4 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.4 5.4 East Northamptonshire 85.4 81.3 95.2 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.4 4.8 Kettering 89.5 84.4 94.3 0.9 1.0 2.5 2.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.3 5.7 Northampton 202.8 178.3 87.9 4.4 2.2 9.8 4.8 6.1 6.1 4.2 0.7 12.1 South 90.3 86.0 95.2 1.1 1.2 1.5 1.7 1.1 1.1 0.7 0.4 4.8 Northamptonshire Wellingborough 75.9 67.3 88.7 1.6 2.1 4.1 5.4 2.2 2.2 0.7 0.4 11.3 Northamptonshire 678.3 625.1 92.2 10.9 1.6 22.1 3.3 12.4 12.4 7.9 0.5 7.8
100% 0-15 90% 16-59F/65M 80% 70% 60+F/65+M 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% White Mixed Asian Black Chinese
Figure PC5 | Ethnic Groups by Age in Northamptonshire - 2007, Office for National Statistics
NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy | 115 Migration 4500 Northamptonshire’s population increase 4000 has been driven by a combination of 3500 strong migration, both international and 3000 internal (i.e. migration within the UK), 2500 and demographic change. Both internal 2000 and international flows have been affected by the recession [Figure PC6]. 1500 1000 Internal migration 500 The National Health Service Central Register 0 (NHSCR) records flows of migration within 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 the UK. In 2009 data shows that levels of net migration in Northamptonshire had fallen International Migration to their lowest levels since 2001. Internal Internal Migration migration peaked in 2003 [Figure PC7]. Figure PC6 | Net Internal and International This trend was mirrored in many Migration to Northamptonshire 2004- 08, Office for National Statistics neighbouring areas [Figure PC8]. In line with the rest of the UK, the largest number of moves were made by the 15- 19 year age group. Northamptonshire had 6000 a net loss of people in this age group of 5000 4711 4790 1,264 people in 2009, partly attributable 4000 2876 to the relatively low levels of provision 3000 3650 2454 1917 of university education in the county. 2000 2440 1028
NET MIGRATION TOTAL NET MIGRATION 1000 27
0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Figure PC7 | Net migration in Northamptonshire, 2001 to 2009, NHSCR
116 | NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy The age groups which saw the largest net 10000 increase were in the 30-44 year age group Bedfordshire (399 people), the 0-14 year age group (311 8000 Warwickshire people) and in the 65+ year age group (208 6000 Leicestershire people). Northamptonshire had a slightly Northamptonshire higher than average number of people aged 4000 over 65 years moving into the county (10.8%) 2000 when compared with regional and national averages (9.6% and 9.3% respectively). 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
NET MIGRATION TOTAL NET MIGRATION -2000 The largest flows of people into Northamptonshire came from the following -4000 places: London (2,312 people), Leicestershire (1,334) and Buckinghamshire (1,728). The Figure PC8 | Net migration in Northamptonshire and largest flows out were similarly London neighbouring authorities, 2001 to 2009, NHSCR (1,993 people) and Leicestershire (1,427). International migration Between 2004 and 2008, net international migration to Northamptonshire (mainly from Eastern Europe) totalled 15,700 people, peaking in 2006 at 4,200. As the recession started to bite in 2008, both internal and international migration fell.
NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy | 117 Worker Registrations 400 The Workers Registration scheme began in May 2004 and provides information 350 supplied by citizens from eight of the countries who joined the European Union 300 that month when they obtain a job in the 250 UK. These countries are often referred to as the eight accession states, or A8. 200 A8 citizens are required to register once 150 they obtain a job and to re-register for subsequent jobs until they have worked a 100 total of 12 out of 13 months. There is no deregistration information; the data only 50 gives inflows. The data is not cumulative. 0 Northamptonshire has attracted a large number of overseas workers, particularly Latvia Poland Hungry Estonia
Slovakia from Eastern Europe. Most recent data Lithuania Czech Rep shows that between October and December Figure PC9 | Worker registrations by nationality, 2009, there were 895 new worker October to December 2009, UK Border Agency registrations in Northamptonshire. 585 of these were in Northampton, the second highest in the country. These migrants also brought 115 dependents, 39% of 400 whom were aged under 17 years. 350 The largest numbers of new worker registrations at the end of 2009 were 300 from Poland and Latvia. This is very 250 similar to the profile across the rest of the East Midlands [Figure PC9]. 200 As would be expected, the age profile 150 of the new worker registrations shows that the majority are aged between 18 100 and 34. This is similar to the regional 50 and national trends [Figure PC10].
0 A large proportion (88%) of new registrations are from people working in administration, <18 65+ 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+64 business and managerial services. The rest of the registrations are spread between Figure PC10 | Age profile of new the hospitality industry, manufacturing worker registrations, October to and retail sectors (all accounting for December 2009, UK Border Agency 2% to 3% of new registrations).
118 | NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy It is interesting to note that 75% of these Table PC6 | English as a Second Language Northamptonshire new workers intend to stay for less than and Districts 2006-10, Northamptonshire County Council 3 months - this is their stated intention when they first arrive. Anecdotal evidence Change % however suggests that the reality is that 2006 2010 2006- Change many stay for a much longer period. 10 2006-10
It is clear that Northamptonshire remains Total %EAL Total %EAL an attractive location for international Corby 7,885 3.2 8,228 8.3 343 4.4 migrants, particularly those from A8 countries. Kettering 13,150 4.0 12,022 4.8 -1,128 -8.6 However, more reliable data is needed on all aspects of migration in order to get a better Wellingborough 10,545 6.4 11,292 9.6 747 7.1 understanding of the dynamics of these East migration flows and the implications for Northamptonshire 11,114 0.9 12,286 1.6 1,172 10.5 the local economy and service providers. Northampton 24,275 10.0 25,928 17.2 1,653 6.8 Daventry 10,401 1.9 11,185 3.3 784 7.5 English as a Second Language As a direct consequence of international South Northamptonshire 15,924 1.7 17,511 2.4 1,587 10.0 migration, the proportion of children in maintained schools and nurseries in the Special Schools 920 3.4 1,082 4.2 162 17.6 county for who English is a second language Northamptonshire 94,214 4.8 99,534 7.9 5,320 5.6 (i.e. not their native tongue) has risen from 4.8% in 2006 to 7.9% in 2010. At district level, the proportion of children having English as a second language is particularly concentrated in Northampton (17.2% in 2010, up from 10% in 2006); Wellingborough (9.6% in 2010 compared to 6.4% in 2006) and Corby (8.3% in 2010 compared to 3.2% in 2006). East Northamptonshire has the lowest proportion of children with English as a second language (1.6% in 2010) [Table PC6].
NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy | 119 880 Population Projections 860 The population of Northamptonshire has 840 grown rapidly in recent years, and this 820 rapid growth is expected to continue as 800 780 the area remains a location of choice 760 for both business and people. 740 720 The population of the county is projected 700 to exceed 800,000 by 2025. Migration will 680 remain the driver for this change, with inward 660 640 migration accounting for a larger proportion 620 of this increase than natural change. It should 600 be noted that these figures are trend based 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 and so do not take account of policy decisions which will influence the overall housing Figure PC11 | Population projections for Northamptonshire numbers. Previous forecasting work done by 2008-2033 (000’s), 2008-based Sub-national population projections, Office for National Statistics the County Council has shown that should growth occur as planned, the population growth will be at a far higher level. However, Table PC7 | Population projections for Northamptonshire in the absence of an agreed set of housing 2009-2033 (000’s), 2008-based Sub-national population figures, it is not yet possible to produce a projections, Office for National Statistics current set of local figures [Figure PC11]. The majority of this population growth
2009 2014 2019 2024 2029 2033 will occur within a broad corridor Corby 54.9 56.9 59.2 61.4 63.3 64.8 running approximately south-west (from Daventry 78.7 81.9 85.4 89.0 92.4 94.7 Daventry and Towcester) to north east (Corby and Wellingborough/Rushden) East Northamptonshire 85.4 89.4 94.1 98.7 102.7 105.6 through the county with Northampton Kettering 90.3 95.9 101.0 106.1 110.7 114.0 at the centre [Tables PC7 and 8]. Northampton 211.6 226.5 240.3 253.1 264.8 273.1 These projections highlight a significant South Northamptonshire 89.2 94.6 100.1 105.6 110.3 113.7 increase in the population of Northampton Wellingborough 76.1 79.0 82.2 85.5 88.5 90.7 in particular, which is projected to Northamptonshire 686.2 723.8 762.3 799.4 832.7 856.6 grow by over 30% by 2033.
120 | NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy All age categories are projected to grow in Table PC8 | Population projections for Northamptonshire 2009- number but there are wide variances between 2033- % change since 2008 base, 2008-based Sub-national the growth rates in different age bands. In population projections, Office for National Statistics particular there will be a large increase in the number of older people [Figure PC12]. 2009 2014 2019 2024 2029 2033 Looking at population projections by district, a number of trends are clearly evident: Corby 0.7 4.4 8.6 12.7 16.1 18.9 Daventry 0.8 4.9 9.3 14.0 18.3 21.3 • Large growth in the over 60s population East Northamptonshire 0.8 5.5 11.1 16.5 21.3 24.7 will be seen in all districts Kettering 1.1 6.9 13.1 18.8 24.0 27.7 • Corby will see the largest growth in both the 0-19 and 20-59 year old populations Northampton 1.3 8.5 15.1 21.2 26.8 30.8 1.1 7.3 13.5 19.7 25.1 28.9 • East Northamptonshire will see almost South Northamptonshire zero growth in its 20-59 year old Wellingborough 0.7 4.5 8.7 13.1 17.1 20.0 population and South Northamptonshire Northamptonshire 1.0 6.6 12.2 17.7 22.6 26.1 will see an actual decline. Social Inclusion There are many factors which influence 2008 2018 aged 90+ social inclusion. This section will consider a number of them, including financial inclusion, overall deprivation, child poverty, health aged 80+ and disability, life expectancy and crime.
aged 70+
aged 60+
0 50 100 150 200
Figure PC12 | Population increase in the older age groups, 2008 to 2018 (000’s), 2008-based Sub-national population projections, Office for National Statistics
NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy | 121 Financial inclusion 25 One measure of financial inclusion is the rate 20 of bankruptcies: a legally declared inability 15 or impairment of ability to pay creditors. 10 All districts have seen a significant increase 5 in the rate of bankruptcies between 2000 and 2008. With the exception of South 0 Northamptonshire, all districts are above the East Corby regional and national average. Corby has South England Daventry Kettering seen the largest increase in the rate over this Northants Northampton East Midlands time period, but rates in Kettering remain Wellingborough Leics/ Rutland/ Northamptonshire Northamptonshire the highest in the county [Figure PC13]. 2000 2008 It is estimated that 4,981 households in the Figure PC13 | Rate of bankruptcies per 10,000 population, 2000 to 2008 county do not have access to a bank account. Not having access to a bank account can have some wide ranging impacts, including paying more for gas, electricity and other bills due to the inability to set up direct debits which often qualify for a discount, and making it harder to get a job as many employers insist on paying wages directly into a bank account. Affordable credit can also influence the local economy as it influences people’s purchasing power. Corby is identified as a RED priority area, with 7 wards in the top 10% nationally for affordable credit. Kettering and Wellingborough are both identified as an AMBER priority with a further 3 wards in the top 10% nationally, and Northampton as a BLACK priority with 5 wards in the top 10% nationally. Warkton ward (Kettering), Kingswood ward (Corby) and Spencer ward (Northampton) are ranked within the top 300 wards in the country (out of 10,000 wards) for affordable credit (data supplied by Financial Inclusion in the East Midlands). It is estimated that 2,174 people across the county are using loan sharks.
122 | NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) Table PC9 | County Ranking by Overall IMD Overall levels of deprivation are fairly low in Northamptonshire. Compared to other Rank counties in England, Northamptonshire is ranked 38th out of 149 in terms of the Wokingham 1 overall Index of Multiple Deprivation: a Rutland 2 measure of deprivation which considers Surrey 3 a number of different aspects of West Berkshire 4 deprivation including income, health and Windsor and Maidenhead 5 education. However, there are smaller parts of the county which experience Northamptonshire 38 higher levels of deprivation [Table PC9. The Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) is also reported for much smaller areas; Lower layer Super Output Area (LSOA) level. There are 32,482 LSOAs in England and 407 in Northamptonshire. The overall national index ranks each LSOA from 1 (top ranked or most deprived area) to 32,482 (lowest ranked or least deprived area). The Government has stated that the top 20% highest ranked (or most deprived) areas are the ones that should be targeted for support. In 2007, Northamptonshire had 12 LSOAs ranked in the top 10% most deprived areas in England and 42 LSOAs in the 20% most deprived areas of England. This means that 3% of Northamptonshire’s 407 LSOAs are in the worst 10% of deprived areas in England and 11% are in the worst 20% of deprived areas in England. Overall, Northamptonshire’s position has slightly worsened since 2004 as in 2004 the county had only 10 LSOAs in the top 10% most deprived districts in England (it had 12 in 2007), however, the county had the same number of LSOAs in the 20% most deprived England LSOAs in both years (44).
NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy | 123 The IMD also measures a number of other individual domains which contribute to the overall IMD rating and a number of these will now be considered along with other data sources under the specific topic areas [Figure PC14].
Figure PC14 | Map of Overall IMD. Top 20% National LSOAs in Northamptonshire - 2007
124 | NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy Income LSOAs in England for income deprivation which Income deprivation measures the number remained unchanged in 2007 . These figures of people reliant on a number of different are very similar to the county’s overall IMD benefits. In 2004 Northamptonshire had 12 position, with very little change happening LSOAs in the worst 10% of LSOAs in England. between 2004 and 2007 [Figure PC15]. This rose to 13 in 2007. Additionally, the county had 42 LSOAs in the worst 20% of
Figure PC15 | Map of IMD Income Domain. Top 20% National LSOAs in Northamptonshire - 2007
NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy | 125 Economic Deprivation Index Children in Poverty The Economic Deprivation Index (EDI) is The HM Revenue and Customs record the comprised of data from the Income and number of children living in families in receipt Employment Deprivation Domains of the of Child Tax Credit whose reported income IMD and is produced on an annual basis. One is less than 60% of the median income or view of the data ranks all districts in England who are in receipt of Income Support or Job from 1 (least economically deprived) to 374 Seekers Allowance (Income-Based), divided (most economically deprived). According by the total number of children living in the to the latest 2005 data, Corby is the most area. By this measure, Northamptonshire economically deprived district (ranked 73rd) has 15.4% of children living in poverty, and South Northamptonshire is the least which is significantly below both the economically deprived (ranked 352nd). Most regional (18.7%) and England (21.6%) levels. of Northamptonshire’s districts have seen By district, Corby has the highest level of only minor movements in their respective children living in poverty (19.3%) and South positions in the overall rankings between Northamptonshire the least (6%). However, 1999 and 2005, however the exception is Northamptonshire has proportionately more Northampton which has declined significantly children living in poverty compared to the over the period falling from 190th position surrounding comparator areas with the sole in 1999 to 167th in 2005 [Table PC10]. exception of Milton Keynes which has 19.6% of children living in poverty [Table PC11].
Table PC10 | Economic Deprivation Index - Rank of District Table PC11 | Percentage of Children in Poverty Level Population-Weighted Average Rank (1 - Most Deprived Northampton, Districts and Comparator Local Authority Area; 374 Least Deprived Local Authority Areas – 2007, HM Revenue & Customs Area). Northamptonshire Districts 1999 – 2005. Northamptonshire 15.4% Corby 19.3% Daventry 10.5% 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 East Northamptonshire 12.5% Corby 77 76 71 77 67 77 73 Kettering 13.9% Daventry 314 310 308 316 302 308 313 Northampton 21.1% East South Northamptonshire 6.0% Northamptonshire 274 273 276 278 269 271 263 Wellingborough 18.3% Kettering 222 223 222 225 227 224 227 Leicestershire 10.7% Northampton 190 187 178 175 175 173 167 Warwickshire 13.4% South Bedfordshire 15.1% Northamptonshire 350 350 350 351 351 352 352 Cambridgeshire 12.6% Wellingborough 189 183 182 181 176 187 182 Milton Keynes 19.6% Buckinghamshire 11.1% Oxfordshire 11.8% South East 14.9% East Midlands 18.7% England 21.6%
126 | NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy Gross Disposable Household Income (GDHI) Table PC12 | GDHI 2007 for Northamptonshire, East Midlands and UK GDHI is the amount of money that individuals have left for spending or saving after expenditure associated with income, for example, taxes and social contributions,
property ownership and provision for future GDHI Total (£m) 2007 Increase on 2006 (%) GDHI Total per head (£m) 2007 Increase on 2006 (%) Head Per Index 2007 (UK=100) pension income. In 2007, Northamptonshire NUTS 3 had a total GDHI of £9,670 million which was a rise of 3.4% on the 2006 level (a greater Northamptonshire 9,670 3.4 14,256 2 100 proportionate increase than that seen at both NUTS 1 regional (2.6%) and UK (2.5%) levels over the East Midlands 58,376 2.6 13,268 1.8 93 same period). The county had GDHI per head of UK 873,008 2.5 14,317 1.9 100 £14,256 in 2007 which was significantly higher Notes than the regional level of £13,268 but just Headline GDHI on current basic prices on residence basis calculated on a 5 point moving average below the UK level of £13,221. At East Midlands Figures may not sum due to rounding 2007 estimates are provisional NUTS 3 level, only South Nottinghamshire and Leicestershire (and Rutland) had higher GDHI per head than Northamptonshire [Table PC12]. 110
105 In terms of the GDHI per head index (UK=100), Northamptonshire scored 100 in 100 2007 to equal the national average and so 95 is maintaining the gradual improvement 90 seen since 1995 [Figure PC16]. 85
80
75
70 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Derby East Derbyshire South & West Derbyshire Nottingham North Nottinghamshire South Nottinghamshire Leicester Leicestershire & Northamptonshire Lincolnshire Rutland
Figure PC16 | Headline GDHI per head indices at NUTS 3 level East Midlands. 1995 -2007
NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy | 127 Health and Disability Deprivation life expectancy. The relative proportion of Using the Index of Multiple Deprivation people aged 10 to 19 is set to decrease, measure of health and disability deprivation, but overall numbers are set to increase. in 2004, Northamptonshire had 7 LSOAs in the • The ageing population means that across worst 10% of LSOAs in England which fell to 5 the county there will be more people in 2007. Additionally, the county had 34 LSOAs with long term conditions and disabilities in the worst 20% of LSOAs in England in 2004 such as heart disease, stroke, diabetes, for this domain which fell to 26 in 2007 . This lung disease, depression and dementia. shows a positive picture. Northamptonshire Dementia is a particular issue due to has fewer lowly rated LSOAs under this domain the complexity of the condition and compared to the overall IMD score, and, taken the projected increase in prevalence. in tandem with the health improvement noted • The number of people with conditions such between 2004 and 2007, this indicates that as Diabetes, Coronary Heart Disease, Chronic progress in addressing health deprivation in Obstructive Pulmonary Disease or Dementia is the county is being made [Figure PC17]. going to increase over the next 5 to 10 years. The 2009 East Midlands Health profile uses Diabetes is predicted to increase by 35% a range of indicators to compare the health by 2015. The number of older people with profiles of local authority areas in both regional some sort of depression is set to rise by 28% and England contexts (see Appendices for how in 2015, and the number of over 65s with Northamptonshire and its districts compare dementia is predicted to rise by 20% in 2015. regionally and Appendices for a comparison • The population’s health is improving, but at national level). In comparison with the not equally, across the county. People regional average, Northamptonshire is scored are living longer and developing disease lowest of the 5 shire counties making up the later in life. Mortality rates from heart East Midlands and second lowest compared disease, stroke and cancer are dropping. to the national average. By district, Corby has • There are significant differences in health the worst health profile scoring significantly and life expectancy within the county. worse than both the regional and national For males, there is a gap of 5.5 years in averages in the majority of the indicators used. life expectancy between Corby and South Conversely, South Northamptonshire is rated Northamptonshire. The male healthy life at having the best health profile in the county. expectancy gap between local authorities in Northamptonshire is 2.1 years (Corby - The Northamptonshire Joint Strategic lowest, South Northamptonshire - highest). Needs Assessment (JSNA) sets out the In Northamptonshire the incidence rate of health, wellbeing and social needs of the cancer is close to East Midlands and England county and is collectively produced by average however there is variation within NHS Northamptonshire, Northamptonshire the county; Corby sits within the second County Council and other health bodies worst quintile nationally compared to the and local authorities in the county. rest of the local authorities in England, Some of the key messages in the whilst South Northamptonshire and 2009 JSNA report are as follows: Northampton sit within the best quintile. • The population of Northamptonshire is growing, becoming older, more diverse and more people are benefiting from longer
128 | NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy Figure PC17 | Map of IMD Health Domain. Top 20% National LSOAs in Northamptonshire - 2007
NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy | 129 Table PC13 | All-Age All Cause Mortality per 100,000 Population Mortality Rate (i.e. Number of Persons Dying per 100,000 Population). In 2007, all age, all cause mortality in Northamptonshire, Districts and Comparator Areas – 1993 - 2007 Northamptonshire was 575.8 deaths per 100,000 population which is below the East % change 1993 Midlands average of 585 deaths per 100,000 Name 1993 2007 to 2007 population and the England average of 579.4 deaths per 100,000 population. However, Corby 917.1 656.7 -28.39 the county’s mortality rate is significantly Daventry 730.4 585.8 -19.79 higher than several of the surrounding East Northants 729.8 567.8 -22.2 comparator areas, of which Oxfordshire Kettering 753.3 571.3 -24.16 has the lowest mortality rate (486.3 deaths Northampton 795 602 -24.28 per 100,000 population). By district, Corby has the highest mortality rate of 656.7 South Northants 747.5 474.7 -36.5 deaths per 100,000 population while South Wellingborough 783 583.3 -25.51 Northamptonshire has the lowest mortality Northamptonshire 778.6 575.8 -26.04 rate of 474.7 deaths per 100,000 population which is only 72% of Corby’s rate. Leicestershire 744.9 512.6 -31.18 Warwickshire 796.6 566.3 -28.9 Looking at trends over time, the change Mid Bedfordshire 726.7 514.1 -29.25 in the all age, all cause mortality per 100,000 population has fallen by 26% in Bedford 731.5 554.5 -24.2 Northamptonshire which is slightly below South Beds 762.5 590.5 -22.55 the regional fall of 27.2% and the England Buckinghamshire 710.4 486.3 -31.54 decline of 26.7%. By district, the largest Oxfordshire 689.5 493.2 -28.47 falls in all age, all cause mortality rates Milton Keynes 827.8 582.8 -29.59 have been in South Northamptonshire (36.5% decline between 1993 and 2007) South East 723.2 528.1 -26.98 and Corby (28.4% decline) [Table PC13]. East Midlands 803.2 585 -27.17 England 790.4 579.4 -26.7 Life Expectancy The latest figures reveal that male life expectancy (for males born between the years 2005 to 2007) in Northamptonshire is 77.9 years which is very slightly higher than both the regional (77.6 years) and England positions (77.7 years). The county has seen a continual increase in male life expectancy over the past 15 years which has risen from 73.9 years (for males born in 1991-93) to 77.9 years (for males born in 2005-07) and this improvement in the county mirrors the improvements made at both the regional and England levels.
130 | NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy At district level, South Northamptonshire has Table PC14 | Recorded Crime in Northamptonshire by Offence the highest male life expectancy (80.1 years, Category 2008/9 & 2009/10. Source: Northamptonshire Police for males born between 2005-07) and Corby the lowest (74.6 years). All districts have seen significant increases in male life expectancy Home Office Group rates over the past 15 years (see Appendices). Recorded Crime 2008/09 Recorded Crime 2009/10 +/- Crimes % Change Female life expectancy rates (for females born between 2005 to 2007) is 81.7 years in Burglary dwelling 3,939 3,408 -531 -13.5% Northamptonshire, just higher than the East Burglary other 4,918 4,317 -601 -12.2% Midlands average of 81.6 years but lower than Criminal damage 13,703 11,827 -1,876 -13.7% the England average of 82.7 years. As with Deception / Fraud 2,416 2,250 -166 -6.9% male life expectancy, the county has seen a Drug offences 1,532 1,730 198 12.9% continual increase in female life expectancy over the past 15 years which has risen from Other offences 779 800 21 2.7% 78.9 years (for females born between 1991- Robbery 898 775 -123 -13.7% 93) to 81.7 years (for females born between Sexual offences 769 692 -77 -10.0% 2005-07) and this improvement in the county, Theft from motor once again, mirrors the improvements made vehicle 5,493 4,432 -1,061 -19.3% at both the regional and England levels. Theft / handling 12,672 12,575 -97 -0.8% At district level, South Northamptonshire Theft of motor vehicles 3,310 2,294 -1,016 -30.7% has the highest female life expectancy (83.2 Violence offences 9,475 10,079 604 6.4% years for females born between 2005-07)) Total 59,904 55,179 -4,725 -7.9% and Corby the lowest (80.2 years). Once again, all districts have seen significant increases in female expectancy rates over the past 15 years (see Appendices). Crime There are two key measures of crime: the British Crime Survey and the number of recorded offences. Figures from the 2009/10 recorded crime statistics (produced by Northamptonshire Police) show that crime has fallen in the county by 7.9% between 2008/9 and 2009/10. The largest falls have been in ‘Theft of Motor Vehicles’ (-30.7%), ‘Theft from Motor Vehicles’ (-19.3%), ‘Criminal Damage’ (-13.7%) and ‘Robbery’ (-13.7%). However, increases were reported in ‘Drug Offences’ (12.9%) and ‘Violent Offences’ (6.4%). A summary of recorded crime by category is shown in Table PC14.
NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy | 131 Table PC15 | British Crime Survey – Overall Crime rate 2003/4 and Looking at the British Crime Survey, this shows 2008/9 - Northamptonshire, Districts and Comparator Areas that Northamptonshire’s crime rate is above the East Midlands and England averages. However, in 2008/9, it had fallen 29.8% from its 2003/4 level. This is slightly more than the equivalent regional (27.9%) and England
2003/04 2008/09 Change 2004/2009 % change 2004/2009 (28.3%) reductions over the same time period. Northamptonshire 77.6 54.5 -23.1 -29.8 Corby, Northampton and Wellingborough Corby 119.9 76.8 -43.1 -36.0 have the highest levels of crime in the county with South Northamptonshire having the Daventry 48.5 37.8 -10.7 -22.1 lowest rate. Northamptonshire also fares East Northamptonshire 52 42.8 -9.2 -17.7 poorly compared to surrounding areas having Kettering 67.1 49 -18.1 -27.0 significantly more crime with only Milton Northampton 109.6 73.1 -36.5 -33.3 Keynes having a higher crime rate than the South Northamptonshire 30.4 21.4 -9 -29.6 county. However, the proportional reduction in crime in Northamptonshire between Wellingborough 82.7 65.2 -17.5 -21.2 2003/4 to 2008/9 was greater (in some cases, Leicestershire 45.4 37.8 -7.6 -16.7 significantly so) compared to the reductions Warwickshire 55.6 41.8 -13.8 -24.8 seen in the comparator areas [Table PC15]. Cambridgeshire 54.9 42.1 -12.8 -23.3 Worklessness Milton Keynes 67.7 60.4 -7.3 -10.8 Worklessness is difficult to define and there is Buckinghamshire 52 42.1 -9.9 -19.0 no single indicator of measurement. However, by looking at a range of different indicators Oxfordshire 49.8 40.8 -9 -18.1 / topics it is possible to shed some light on South East 54.2 44.3 -9.9 -18.3 the number of people who may be workless East Midlands 72.5 52.3 -20.2 -27.9 at any given time and these include: England 69.3 49.7 -19.6 -28.3 • Unemployment High Crime Areas (England) 105.5 70.6 -34.9 -33.1 • Economic inactivity Two-tier County Average 51.4 38.6 -12.8 -24.9 • Those of working age who are claiming particular benefits • NEETS (young people Not in Employment, Education or Training). Unemployment has been covered in the Labour Market section. Therefore this section will focus on analysing economic activity (including NEETs) and the extent of working people claiming certain benefits in the county. Economic Inactivity As already set out in the section on the Labour Market, Northamptonshire has a very high economic activity rate of 84% which is above both the regional (80.9%) and England
132 | NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy (79%) averages (2009 figures). The economic and Corby (12.8%). Northamptonshire has a inactivity rate of the county is therefore higher proportion of those not looking for 16% which is significantly below the East work because of family / home responsibilities Midlands (19.1%) and England (21%) levels. or being a student than regionally, but a Of the economically inactive group (does lower proportion than the England average. not include students or retired people) in Northamptonshire, just over three quarters Working Age Economically (76.3%) do not want a job which is higher Inactive on Benefits than the corresponding regional (71.3% In August 2009, 13.5% of Northamptonshire’s of the economically inactive not wanting resident working population [or 57,900 a job) and England (73.6%) averages – see people] were on a benefit which is below both Appendices. Economically inactive males in the regional (15.2%) and England (15.5%) Northamptonshire are significantly more likely averages. Of the surrounding comparator not to want a job than the corresponding areas, only Milton Keynes (14.5%) and East Midlands and England averages Bedford (13.9%) had a greater proportion (Northamptonshire 80.8% of economically of the working population on benefits. By inactive males do not want a job; 70.9% district, Corby had the highest proportion East Midlands; 72.1% England). Approaching of the working age on benefits (20.1%), three quarters (74%) of economically inactive South Northamptonshire had the least females in Northamptonshire also say they do (7.2%). The proportion of the working age not want a job compared to 71.6% regionally population on benefits has risen significantly and 74.6% in England - all 2009 figures. in Northamptonshire (in all districts) and all the comparator areas since 2008. For example By district, Daventry has the highest in August 2008, the proportion of the working proportion of economically inactive age population in Northamptonshire on a people who do not want a job (90.5%), benefit was only 11.1%, the corresponding both of males (87.1%) and females (93%). figure for the East Midlands was 13.2% Conversely, Kettering has the lowest and for England 13.6% - see Appendices). proportion of economically inactive people who do not want a job (64.5%), especially In terms of specific benefits, in males (61.6%). Wellingborough has the Northamptonshire (in August 2009) 4% of lowest proportion of economically inactive the resident working population were on females not wanting a job (44.1%). Job Seekers Allowance, 1.8% on Income Support and 1.7% on Incapacity Benefit In Northamptonshire, of those who are which compares to East Midlands figures economically inactive who want a job but are of 3.9% on Job Seekers Allowance, 1.9% currently not looking (all 2009 figures), the on Income Support and 2.1% on Incapacity three main reasons given were because they Benefit; and England figures of 3.9% on Job were long-term sick (8.2%), or were looking Seekers Allowance, 2.2% on Income Support after a family / home (6.2%) or because they and 2% on Incapacity Benefit. By district, were students (3.2%) – see Appendices. Not Corby had the highest proportion of the looking for work because of being long-term working population on each benefit type, sickness in Northamptonshire was below the conversely South Northamptonshire had the regional average (9.6%) but higher than the lowest proportion the working population England average (7.5%) and, by district, was on each benefit type – see Appendices). most prevalent in Wellingborough (20%)
NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy | 133 Table PC16 | NEETs Rates, Northamptonshire and Districts, 16-18 year NEETS (Not in Employment, olds (adjusted data), – 2007-09, Northamptonshire Connexions Education or Training) Finally, this review of worklessness will look at NEETS (or young people Not in Employment, Education or Training). In August 2009, NEETs Northamptonshire had a NEETs rate of 8.9% which ranged from a low of 3.2% in South August 2007 % August 2008 % August 2009 % Northamptonshire to a high of 12.4% in Corby 206 12.3% 149 9.1% 134 8.5% Northampton – see Table PC16. The county Daventry 102 5.5% 124 6.9% 71 4.4% has seen a fall in the proportion of NEETs East Northants 160 10.0% 108 6.4% 140 8.2% compared to August 2007 when the proportion of NEETS was 9.8%. However there has been Kettering 224 9.2% 238 9.8% 215 9.0% a wide variation by district. Whilst Corby Northampton 614 12.8% 577 12.1% 554 12.4% has seen a large fall in NEETs from 12.3% South Northants 66 3.1% 66 2.9% 69 3.2% in 2007 to 8.5% in 2009, over the same Wellingborough 217 12.5% 213 11.8% 221 12.2% period, Northampton saw only a small fall Northamptonshire 1,588 9.8% 1475 9.0% 1,404 8.9% (from 12.8% to 12.4%) and the NEETs rate actually rose in South Northamptonshire Table PC17 | NEETs Rates Northamptonshire and Districts, 16-18 year (from 3.1% to 3.2%) [Table PC16]. olds (adjusted data) – July 2010, Northamptonshire Connexions Looking at the NEETs rates over the past year, July 2010 (Adjusted the proportion of NEETS in Northamptonshire NEETs % Actuals) has fallen from 7.1% in April 2009 to 5.6% in March 2010 and most districts have Corby 91 5.3% seen large falls in their NEETS rates – see Daventry 77 3.9% Appendices. As at March 2010, the county East Northamptonshire 103 5.9% is ahead of its NEETs target (which is 6%) Kettering 193 7.5% and the only two districts which are lagging Northampton 522 11.1% behind their targets are Wellingborough (NEETs rate 7.1%, target 6.1%) and South Northamptonshire 50 2.0% Kettering (NEETs rate 6.8%, target 6.4%). Wellingborough 139 7.3% Northamptonshire 1,178 6.9% The latest data (July 2010) shows that the NEETs rate in Northamptonshire has fallen further to 6.9%, with Northampton having the highest NEETs rate (11.1%) and South Northamptonshire the lowest (2%)[ Table PC17].
134 | NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy To consider NEETs by ethnicity it is necessary to Table PC18 | Northamptonshire NEETs broken down by Ethnicity consult a different data-set – see Tables PC18 (Post Compulsory Education, 16-19 year olds by Ethnicity – non- and Appendices (which include unadjusted adjusted data) – July 2010, Northamptonshire Connexions data for 16-19 year olds; Tables PC16 and PC17 only include 16-18 year olds). By Cohort % of Total NEETs % of all Ethnicity ethnicity, Whites and Mixed Race groups make Number Cohort Number NEETs up the largest proportion of NEETs (Whites White 22,167 87.2 1,219 89.5 making up 89.5% of all NEETs and Mixed Race Mixed 650 2.6 54 4.0 4%). Teenagers from Other Ethnic minority group (principally Chinese) and Asian groups Asian 680 2.7 23 1.7 are significantly less likely to become NEETs. Black 568 2.2 31 2.3 Other Ethnic Group 143 0.6 4 0.3 Of the total number of NEETs in Not known 1020 4.7 31 2.2 Northamptonshire in July 2010 (1.362 individuals), 938 teenagers (77.7%) were Total 25,328 100.0 1,362 100.0 available to work whilst 281 (22.3%) were not available to work. In general, teenagers from Asian, Black and Mixed ethnic backgrounds were more likely than average to be available to work whilst teenagers from White and Other Ethnic (principally Chinese) groups were less likely than average to be available to work. The top three reasons given for not being available to work are being teenage parents (67%), illness (18.8%) and pregnancy (9.9%). Being teenage parents was most often quoted by Black, Mixed and White teenagers. For White teenagers, Illness and pregnancy were other major reasons for not being available to work.
NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy | 135 Rural The 2006 Annual Business Inquiry found that 37% of workplaces (10,278) in There has, to date, been no detailed Northamptonshire are located in rural research on the rural economy in wards - 14.6% (4,051 workplaces) being Northamptonshire however, some in Village, Hamlet & Isolated Dwellings background information is as follows: wards and 22.4% (6,227 workplaces) located in Town & Fringe wards. • Using the Defra rural classifications, Daventry and South Northamptonshire By sector, not surprisingly, 87% of the are classified as having at least 80 percent county’s Agricultural workplaces are in rural of their population in rural settlements wards though these number only 60 in total. and larger market towns (Rural 80). East 43.1% of Banking and Finance workplaces Northamptonshire is classified as having (3,636) are in rural wards as are 41.6% at least 50 percent of their population in of Construction workplaces (1.285) and rural settlements and larger market towns 40.8% of Other Services workplaces (876). (Rural 50). Kettering and Wellingborough Additionally, there are 2,295 Distribution, are classified as Significant Rural (Districts Hotels and Restaurants rural workplaces with more than 37,000 people or more representing 31.8% of the county’s total. than 26 percent of their population in rural settlements and larger market In terms of employee numbers, 20% of towns). Corby and Northampton are all county employees work in rural wards classified as Other Urban (Districts with (60,084 employees) with, the largest rural fewer than 37,000 people or less than employment sectors being Distribution, 26 percent of their population in rural Hotels and Restaurants (14,187 employees, settlements and larger market towns). 20.1% of all county employees); Public Administration (11,907 employees, 18.5%) • Northamptonshire’s rural wards have a and Banking / Finance / Insurance (10,547 similar proportion of 0-19 year olds to employees, 17.2%). In terms of the proportion the county average, fewer people aged of overall county employment employed 20-39 years old and a higher proportion in rural wards, the largest sectors are of people aged 40-64 and pensioners. Agriculture (88.8% of county employees • Generally the rural wards have fewer people working in rural wards, 418 employees)), with no qualifications and more people with Construction (28.7%, 3,845 employees), higher level skills than the county average. Other Services (26.6%, 3,524 employees) • No Northamptonshire rural Super and Transport & Communications (24.3%, Output Areas appear in the overall top 6,864 employees) [Tables PC19 and PC20. 20% most deprived in the 2007 Index of Multiple Deprivation. The only domain in which rural SOAs do appear in the top 20% most deprived is in ‘Barriers to Housing and Services’. This is mainly due to the fact that house prices are higher in rural areas and also geographical distances to services are longer.
136 | NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy Table PC19 | Workplaces by Broad sector in 2006 – Northamptonshire, Village (Isolated Dwellings) , Town and Fringe, and Total Rural, Annual Business Inquiry
Town & % Town Total Industry Northamptonshire Village % Village % Rural Fringe & Fringe Rural Agriculture and fishing 69 31 29 44.93 42.03 60 86.96 Manufacturing 2,373 294 460 12.39 19.38 754 31.77 Construction 3,086 440 845 14.26 27.38 1285 41.64 Distribution, hotels 7,219 818 1477 11.33 20.46 2295 31.79 and restaurants Transport and 1,431 190 354 13.28 24.74 544 38.02 communications Banking, finance 8,427 1630 2006 19.34 23.80 3636 43.15 and insurance, Public administration, 2,987 309 519 10.34 17.38 828 27.72 education & health Other services 2,148 339 537 15.78 25.00 876 40.78 Total 27,770 4051 6227 14.59 22.42 10278 37.01
Table PC20 | Employment by Broad sector in 2006 – Northamptonshire, Village (Isolated Dwellings) , Town and Fringe, and Total Rural, Annual Business Inquiry
Town & % Town Total Industry Northamptonshire Village % Village % Rural Fringe & Fringe Rural Agriculture and fishing 471 215 203 45.65 43.10 418 88.75 Manufacturing 47,773 2096 6696 4.39 14.02 8792 18.40 Construction 13,410 1275 2570 9.51 19.16 3845 28.67 Distribution, hotels 70,512 4921 9266 6.98 13.14 14187 20.12 and restaurants Transport and 28,295 3560 3304 12.58 11.68 6864 24.26 communications Banking, finance 61,399 4130 6417 6.73 10.45 10547 17.18 and insurance, Public administration, 64,365 4282 7625 6.65 11.85 11907 18.50 education & health Other services 13,271 1198 2326 9.03 17.53 3524 26.55 Total 300,143 21677 38407 7.22 12.80 60084 20.02
NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy | 137 Finally, the average size of a workplace in Table PC21 | Total Rural and Urban Workplace and Employee rural wards is less than half that found Numbers – Northamptonshire -2006, Annual Business Inquiry in urban wards with 5.8 employees per workplace being the average for rural areas Average compared to an urban average of 13.7 Locality Workplace Employees Size of employees per workplace [Table PC21]. Workplace Number % of Total Number % of Total Rural 10,278 37 60,084 20 5.8 Urban 17,492 63 240,059 80 13.7
138 | NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy | 139 ‘Northamptonshire as the national lead for low carbon-related technologies and sustainable construction’
140 | NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy 7 Environment
This section of the report considers the key environmental issues and their impact on the economy. It contains the following themes: • Climate change • Use of resources, including energy, air, water and waste • Green infrastructure
NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy | 141 2020s 2050s 2080s Climate change 50% probability level: 50% probability level: 50% probability level: central estimate central estimate central estimate Climate change is one of the biggest issues affecting the country. Within the lifetimes of most residents in Northamptonshire today, climate change will mean: • warmer, drier summers, potentially causing water shortages and problems with overheating • milder, wetter winters, potentially affecting agriculture and the spread of infectious diseases Change in annual mean • a higher chance of extreme weather temperture (˚C) Low emissions such as storms and floods Figure ENV1 | Change in annual average daily temperature The size and speed of the changes under low emission scenario (source: UKCIP09) depend mainly on how much carbon dioxide (CO2) is emitted around the 2020s 2050s 2080s world over the next few decades. 50% probability level: 50% probability level: 50% probability level: central estimate central estimate central estimate By the 2020s, Northamptonshire is forecast to experience: • up to 1-2 degrees centigrade rise in temperature • a fall of up to 15% in summer precipitation (rain, mist etc) • a rise of up to 15% in winter precipitation (rain, hail, snow etc) By the 2080s, if emissions grow fairly modestly,
Change in annual mean Northamptonshire is likely to undergo: temperture (˚C) High emissions • 2-3 degree centigrade rise in temperature Figure ENV2 | Change in annual average daily temperature 15-30% drop in summer precipitation under high emission scenario (source: UKCIP09) • • 0-15% rise in winter precipitation If emissions grow more substantially, there could be: • 4-5 degree rise in temperature • 30-60% drop in summer precipitation • 15-30% rise in winter precipitation Source: UK Climate Impacts Programme, 2006
142 | NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy CO2 emissions are a key contributing factor to climate change. The total amount of CO2 emissions is higher in the west of the county, with levels highest in Northampton. Northampton and Corby have the highest levels of CO2 emissions from the industrial and commercial sector, whilst contributions from road transport are highest in Daventry, Kettering and Northampton [Table ENV1, 2,3].
Table ENV1 | CO2 emissions NI186, 2008
Industry and Domestic Road Transport Total Commercial Amount % Amount % Amount % Corby 432 65.7% 136 20.6% 90 14% 657 Daventry 276 36.0% 181 23.6% 311 40.0% 769 East Northamptonshire 158 26.2% 194 32.1% 252 42.0% 604 Kettering 231 30.6% 211 28.05 312 41.0% 755 Northampton 545 41.5% 467 35.6% 301 23.0% 1,312 South Northamptonshire 204 29.6% 204 29.6% 280 41.0% 688 Wellingborough 241 40.9% 171 29.1% 176 30.0% 588 Northamptonshire 2,133 38.8% 1,573 28.6% 1,795 32.6% 5,501
Table ENV2 | CO2 emissions, Table ENV3 | Reduction in CO2 per capita emissions, per capita, NI186, 2008 Northamptonshire NI186 2005 to 2008
Per Capita
Emissions (t) Corby 12.1 Daventry 9.8 East Northamptonshire 7.1 Industry and Commercial Domestic Road Transport Total Capita Per Emissions (t) Kettering 8.4 2005 2,220 1,607 1,794 5,621 8.6 Northampton 6.3 2006 2,224 1,604 1,778 5,606 8.4 South Northamptonshire 7.8 2007 2,116 1,571 1,804 5,491 8.2 Wellingborough 7.8 2008 2,087 1,563 1,722 5,372 7.9 Northamptonshire 7.9
NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy | 143 The LAA2 (NI186) has already set a target Climate change in of reducing the per capita use of CO2 in the county from a baseline of 8.6 tonnes Northamptonshire (2005). The target is to reduce this by 8.9% Local weather observers say that 2010/11, and the table above shows that Northamptonshire, like the rest the amount per capita is declining. It is of the UK, has seen many records expected that continuing reductions beyond broken over the last ten years. this will be sought in subsequent years. Naturalists have started to notice changes in The map ENV1 shows the spread of CO2 the county’s plants and animals, for example: emissions across the county, from all sources. It shows the higher levels in the main • Earlier flowering of plants; bluebells towns and along the main communication at Coton Manor Gardens are reported networks of the M1, A14, A45 and A43. to have bloomed two weeks earlier [Chronicle and Echo, 2007]. • Record number of migrant moths recorded at Pitsford Water in 2006, thought to reflect warmer night-time temperatures and winds [Chronicle and Echo, 2006]. • Changes in insect and bird species recorded at Pitsford Water [Chronicle and Echo, 2007]. Although these changes do not in themselves ‘prove’ that long-term global change is happening, they are consistent with scientific predictions. Climate change is important to Northamptonshire because it will affect how people live, many key local services and the environment. Not all of these changes will be negative, but coping with some others may be challenging. The following possible impacts of climate change have been predicted for the East Midlands by the East Midlands Sustainable Development Round Table: Map ENV1 | Emissions of CO2 in Northamptonshire 2005 map (source: NAEI) • Less water for domestic and other uses • More flooding on coast and around rivers • Changes in crop types • Poorer working conditions for staff, demand for cooling causes higher energy use • Stress on wetlands, agriculture
144 | NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy • Subsidence damage to buildings Use of resources - energy, • Added stress on biodiversity air, water, waste • Increased tourism wear on attractions In response to many of these threats, The move towards a ‘low carbon Northamptonshire has produced a economy’ will ensure that better use Climate Change Strategy for 2010- is made of existing resources. 2014 which sets out a framework for In a low carbon economy, energy consumption individual and collective action to: will need to be reduced, both through 1. Raise awareness of the issues of reduced levels of use and by increasing Climate Change and its impact the use of renewable sources. Buildings on Northamptonshire are responsible for almost 50% of the UK’s energy consumption and carbon 2. Reduce greenhouse gas emissions, with the domestic housing emissions across the county sector responsible for 30% of this total. 3. Plan for and adapt to the inevitable Reducing fuel consumption is essential. Many impacts of Climate Change parts of the county have extremely high levels of consumption: Daventry (ranked 5) and Pivotal to the success of these new South Northamptonshire (ranked 7) have some approaches will be the development of a of the highest per capita consumption levels ‘low carbon economy’ for Northamptonshire in the country (EMRA Carbon Report, 2006). where priority is given to: The type of energy used varies across the • Investment in environment technology county. Rural areas remain more reliant on companies and their products; oil. The table below shows how energy use • Minimising waste - via reduce, reuse, recycle; compares to the national average [Table ENV4]. • Producing energy using low carbon energy sources and methods - via renewable and alternative energy sources, fuels and sequestration (CO2 storage); Table ENV4 | Energy use (kWh) as a percentage of UK average, EMRA Carbon Report, 2006 • Ensuring all resources (in particular energy) are used efficiently - via more efficient Gas Electricity Oil Coal energy conversion devices, combined heat and power, district heating ; Corby 111% 87% 50% 37% 108% 127% 244% 114% • Wherever practical local needs are served Daventry by local production - food, materials, East Northamptonshire 56% 109% 153% 114% energy, local supply chains; and Kettering 120% 97% 54% 47% • Higher awareness and compliance with Northampton 95% 97% 19% 10% environmental and social responsibility South Northamptonshire 86% 124% 225% 140% initiatives - by industry, commerce and Wellingborough 100% 94% 35% 41% individuals (Northamptonshire Sub-Regional Investment Plan 2010 to 2013, NCC)
NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy | 145 Map ENV2 | Percentage of dwellings without access to mains gas, Hi4em, 2006
146 | NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy The map ENV2 shows the specific areas without access to mains gas. Maps ENV3 and 4 show the levels of consumption in both the domestic and the industrial / commercial sectors. Both highlight the high levels of consumption across the county. Another key contributor to energy consumption is through transport. Almost 40% of emissions in Northamptonshire are from road transport. Northamptonshire is Map ENV3 | Average domestic electricity consumption at the heart of the country’s major road per meter point (kWh), BERR, 2007 network and as such, has attracted a large number of companies reliant on road transport. More information on transport and commuting patterns is available in the Land, Buildings and Infrastructure section. Considerable work is underway to ensure ambitious modal shift targets are met. New residential developments are required to produce modal shift of 20% (i.e. 20% less trips by car).
Map ENV4 | Average industrial / commercial electricity consumption per meter point (kWh), BERR, 2007
NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy | 147 Energy efficiency Sustainable construction methods can also contribute towards increased energy efficiency. Areas with a high proportion of dwellings with poor energy efficiency ratings are shown on Map ENV5 National targets are to meet BREEAM Code level 6 by 2016 on all new build properties. i-Con, the new regional centre for sustainable construction in Daventry has an important role for industry in equipping the building sector with tools to meet these carbon neutral targets by 2016 and ensure that new buildings achieve reduced emissions of greenhouse gases and are capable of responding to possible future climate change. The new i-Con facility, which is dedicated to promoting and fostering innovation in construction at Daventry has a key role to play in construction and building services, engineering developments and innovation. The environmental implications of this work have the potential to establish Northamptonshire as a leader in low carbon technologies and we need to ensure we capitalise on this potential employment and revenue stream early on. Energy generation Another important element in the move towards a low carbon economy is the move towards increasing the use and provision of renewable energy sources, including solar and Map ENV5 | Energy efficiency – % of dwellings with wind power. The ten turbines at Burton Wolds a SAP rating of less than 35, Hi4em, 2007 wind farm south of Kettering produce 400 million units of renewable electricity annually, enough energy to power 8,500 homes.
148 | NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy Air The quality of air is better than at any time since the industrial revolution started and it is continuing to improve as a result of improved regulatory standards affecting industry, transport and domestic properties. However, air pollution remains potentially harmful to both health and the environment, with some pollutants (such as particulates) being more dangerous than previously thought. Air pollution is currently estimated to reduce life expectancy by an average of seven to eight months with an estimated health cost to the UK economy of up to £20 billion each year. It also has detrimental effects on our vegetation and ecosystems. Map ENV6 | Air quality, Public Benefits Mapping, emra Further improvements to the way in which air pollution is managed would have clear benefits. In Northamptonshire, five Air Quality Action Zones have been declared: 1. M1 2. St James Road / Weedon Road / Harborough Road, Northampton 3. Bridge Street / Victoria Promenade / Plough Hotel, Northampton 4. Kingsthorpe Grove, Northampton 5. Watling Street, Towcester The main areas of concern are around the major transport routes, and in the more densely populated areas which suffer from traffic congestion [Map ENV6].
NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy | 149 Table ENV5 | Household water Water consumption (litres per head per day), Water resources meet the needs of the OFWAT Estimated Household Water major domestic, agricultural and industrial Consumption, 2000-1 to 2008-09 demand centres of the county, as well as those of the natural environment. These uses are dependent on the availability of good quality water, so improvements to surface and groundwater needs to continue.
2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 Water is also important in terms of Anglian 144 146 150 147 the supply of water and the disposal National average 148 147 145 143 of waste water. Both processes are expensive and can have substantial impacts on the natural environment. River quality is also an important factor when considering water quality [Table ENV5]. A changing climate may bring an increase in sudden rainfall events. The impact of flooding is of concern and floodplains carry out a valuable function in storing and conveying floodwaters downstream to the sea. Rivers and their floodplains need to be protected as a resource and every effort needs to be made to increase floodplain capacity, working with natural processes wherever possible. Northamptonshire has suffered in the past from flooding, most noticeably the major flood in Northampton in Easter 1998 where 2,000 homes were damaged and £75m damage was done. Considerable work has since been undertaken on flood defence work to minimise the risk of repeat events. The scale of development which is underway across the county has important implications for future flood events, and a series of measures are in place to ensure that the risk of flooding is reduced.
Map ENV7 | Areas with highest probability of flooding, Environment Agency, September 2008
150 | NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy For example, in the North of the county, the Waste water capacity most extensive flooding is caused by flood Waste water capacity issues are also addressed waters from Northampton in the River Nene in the Water Cycle Studies. Capacity issues coinciding with high flows in the major are an existing and emerging problem tributaries such as the River Ise. Therefore across the county, with new developments upstream storage facilities are proposed to adding pressure to the network. There are for allow the Environment Agency to control example issues of capacity at Broadholme the timings of inflows to the River Nene. Wastewater Treatment Works in the north of the county and a requirement for The most frequent flooding events are caused the construction of three new pumping by surface water run-off from short intense stations and rising mains to serve new storms, particularly as a result of urban developments in Kettering and Corby. sewer overloading. On-site Sustainable Urban Drainage Systems (SUDS) will convey and store run-off from frequent intense storms, Table ENV6 | River quality: % of rivers classed as poor/ reducing flood risk to nearby properties. bad quality(chemical & biological), DEFRA, 2006 Surface Water Management Plans will identify further options for improving the existing Authority % poor / bad quality surface water drainage systems in urban areas. Northampton 18% Water Cycle studies have been completed Wellingborough 16% in different parts of the county and provide Corby 14% more detail about specific issues, looking at South Northamptonshire 13% flood risk management, wastewater, water 2% resources and supply, ground water and Daventry sustainable drainage systems and ecological East Northamptonshire 1% constraints and opportunities [Table ENV6]. Kettering 0%
NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy | 151 Table ENV7 | Household waste collected (per Waste person in kg), 2008/09 (NI84a), DEFRA In 2006/07, total municipal waste arisings in Northamptonshire were around 390,000 Collected Household tonnes, over three quarters of which were Rank Authority Waste collected by the waste collection authorities 1 Weymouth and Portland 290 from both households and commercial premises. Around 17% was collected at 2 Hyndburn 294 the Household Waste Recycling Centres, 3 Oxford City 299 of which there are 10 in the county. 4 Purbeck 304 Levels of household waste varies greatly 5 Malvern Hills 307 across the county, from a low of 350kg/ 46 East Northamptonshire 350 person in East Northamptonshire (which 111 Wellingborough 383 ranks it within the top 50 in the country) 124 Northampton 390 to a high of 438kg/person in Daventry. 209 Kettering 423 The Northamptonshire Joint Municipal 217 South Northamptonshire 426 Waste Management Strategy has been 220 Corby 426 developed jointly by the Northamptonshire 249 Daventry 438 Waste Partnership (NWP) and aims to produce a joint approach to managing the county’s municipal solid waste in the period from 2007/8 to 2020/21 [Table ENV7]. There are two key policy drivers for the Strategy: (i) higher levels of Landfill Tax from its 2007/08 level of £24 per tonne, increasing by at least £8 per tonne per annum until it reaches a level of £48 per tonne in 2010/11; and (ii) the introduction of the Landfill Allowances Trading Scheme (LATS) as a means to deliver the EU Landfill Directive. This aims to deliver a national reduction in landfilling of biodegradable municipal Figure ENV3 | Waste management hierarchy, Defra Waste Strategy for England 2007 waste to 35% of 1995 levels by 2020. In accordance with EU Directives, the policy in Northamptonshire is to reduce reliance on landfill by implementing the Waste Management Hierarchy [Figure ENV3].
152 | NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy Northamptonshire is performing well Table ENV8 | Percentage of Household Waste Sent for Reuse, in addressing this aim. The county is Recycling or Composting, 2008/09 (NI192), DEFRA ranked within the top 10 authorities in the country for the percentage of Rank Authority % of household waste household waste being sent for reuse, 1 Leicestershire 52.0 recycling or composting [Table ENV8]. 2 Cambridgeshire 52.0 Daventry and South Northamptonshire have 3 Devon 51.6 the highest levels in the county, with levels 4 Lincolnshire 50.8 lowest in East Northamptonshire [Table ENV9]. 5 Somerset 49.2 Green infrastructure 10 Northamptonshire 46.0 Research carried out on behalf of East Table ENV9 | Percentage of Household Midlands Development Agency (emda) ‘Green Waste Sent for Reuse, Recycling or Infrastructure Programme’ (AMION Consulting, Composting, 2008/09 (NI192), DEFRA 2008) highlighted that green infrastructure (gi) projects are becoming more and more % of household Authority important in regenerating areas, reviving waste communities, and attracting investment. Daventry 49.8 Ranging from parks and public gardens to agricultural land, these developments South Northamptonshire 49.5 can bring key economic benefits, such as Kettering 47.7 higher property prices, improved labour Corby 40.5 productivity, job creation and retention as Northampton 38.5 well as boosting tourism and visitor spend. Wellingborough 35.9 Green spaces play an important role in stimulating economic growth and attracting East Northamptonshire 32.0 inward investment. For example, CABE research showed that property values are increased by up to 34% if they face a park.
Benefits of Green Infrastructure, emda 2008:
ECONOMIC Economic growth and investment, property and land values, labour productivity, tourism
SOCIAL Health and well being, recreation and amenity value, community development, educational resource
ENVIRONMENTAL Biodiversity and habitat, flood alleviation, climate change, land remediation
NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy | 153 Green Infrastructure is defined as‘a network Biodiversity of multi-functional greenspace … gi consists Northamptonshire has well below the of the core network of protected sites, assets average proportional area of Sites of and ecological functional landscapes and Special Scientific Interest (SSSI’s), and has linkages ... the open environment within urban lost more plant species over a period of areas, the urban fringe and the countryside. It 50 years than any other English county. is a network of connected, high quality, multi- More of these sites are being lost through functional open spaces, corridors and the link lack of positive management than in between that provide multiple benefits for through development [Table ENV10]. people and wildlife everywhere. It includes both public and private assets and ranges from inner Nevertheless, Northamptonshire has some urban areas to remote rural areas. Its function superb areas for wildlife including Salcey depends on its scale, form and location’. Forest and Rockingham Forest. There is also active support, through groups such as Wildlife Green infrastructure is important in Trust and RSPB, looking into opportunities for Northamptonshire and there are a wide connecting up habitats throughout the county. range of environmental assets. These ‘green’ drivers can be addressed, in part, The Northamptonshire Biodiversity Action by opportunities provided by the county’s Plan (BAP) 2008, sets out action plans for waterways and in particular the River Nene 16 habitats and 2 species across the county and the neighbouring landscape. This is already and also identifies a further 158 BAP species recognised as an internationally important that are found in Northamptonshire. This area for wetland birds and has some of the plan provides guidelines and targets for best opportunities for large scale wetland protecting and enhancing biodiversity which habitat restoration and linkage linked to the are to be implemented by 2015 [Map ENV9]. re-use of former mineral sites [Map ENV8].
Table ENV10 | Condition of Sites of Special Scientific Interest, February 2010, Natural England
Area (ha) Units Favourable 1,339.9 111 Unfavourable: no change 252.8 50 Unfavourable: recovering 2191.3 197 Destroyed 2.5 6 TOTAL 3,786.5 364
Map ENV8 | Natural and cultural assets, Public Benefits Mapping, emra
154 | NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy NI197 is a Local Area Agreement target indicator for Northamptonshire. Through a partnership project significant improvement has been made to the percentage of Local Wildlife Sites (LWS) in positive management in the county. Northamptonshire has just over 800 LWS containing a range of woodland, grassland, and wetland habitats, which create a network of natural sites across the county. The sites are owned by a range of organisations from charities to businesses, schools to estates and many by private individuals. The LWS make up the fabric of Northamptonshire’s countryside and are wildlife refuges in towns and cities [Table ENV11].
Map ENV9 | Biodiversity Action Zones, Public Benefit Mapping, emra
Table ENV11 | percentage of Local Wildlife Sites in positive management(NI 197 return for 2009-10)
Sites under active positive Sites surveyed within management within last 5 years (05-09) last 5 years (05-09) Borough/District location No of sites Number % Number % Daventry 207 71 34 58 28 South Northants 164 36 22 31 19 Northampton 56 55 98 7 13 Wellingborough 51 22 43 15 29 Kettering 72 23 32 28 39 Corby 46 9 20 14 30
East Northants 217 61 28 108 50 Total 813 277 34 261 32
NORTHAMPTONSHIRE LOCAL ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT 2010/11: Evidence and analysis of the local economy | 155