Morning Market Starter Treasury Research Group October 24, 2017 For private circulation only Treasury Research Group

Chart: Japan manufacturing PMI On the radar: The 19th Party Congress underway in Beijing, China is likely to select the members of the elite inched lower in October Politburo Standing Committee tomorrow, who would govern till 2022.

Key Developments:

 Newly elected New Zealand PM Jacinda Ardern has said that their government is committed to fiscal responsibility. However, she added that her agenda includes reforming and reviewing the Reserve Bank of New Zealand Act, which relates to intentions to introduce an employment mandate (main change).

Global market developments:

 Macroeconomic data

o EU: Consumer confidence improved to -1.0 in October, from prior month’s -1.2 reading. The improvement took the Source: Bloomberg, ICICI Bank Research consumer confidence to its most optimistic level in more than sixteen years.

Table: Global market snapshot o Japan: Manufacturing activity slowed in October, coming in at 52.5 as compared to prior month’s 52.9 reading. Sub- components of new orders, output and business confidence acted as a major drag on the overall manufacturing index.

 US markets ended lower yesterday. S&P and Dow Jones ended 0.4% and 0.2% lower respectively, falling from the record highs, dragged down by industrial and technology stocks.

 Asian stocks are trading largely in the green this morning. While Nikkei (0.1%), Shanghai Composite (0.1%), Australia ASX (0.1%) and Kospi (0.1%) are trading higher, Hang Seng is trading little changed.

 US Treasuries are trading flat this morning. The 10Y yield is at 2.37%, similar to yesterday’s close.

Domestic market developments:

 Indian Rupee is trading stronger today at 64.94 levels, vs. previous close of 65.02

 Indian Government bonds are trading steady with the 10Y benchmark yield currently at ~ 6.79%.

Morning Market Starter

Currency Remarks DXY DXY is marginally weaker in the Asian session, currently at 93.71, down by ~0.2%. US President Trump has said that the announcement regarding the Fed Chair will be made very soon. This is likely to have a mild short term impact on the Dollar. In data releases, October preliminary manufacturing and services PMIs are due later today. EUR/USD Euro has recovered marginally today. The common currency appreciated by ~0.1% and is trading currently at 1.1765 against the Dollar. The political uncertainty in Spain remains the same, but lack of further developments prompted investors to book profits ahead of the ECB policy meet on Thursday. Markets are expecting that ECB is likely to announce its tapering of the easing program. Eurozone manufacturing and services PMIs will be in focus in today’s trading. GBP/USD Pound is trading at 1.3220, appreciating 0.1% against US Dollar. UK PM Theresa May has said to her MPs that there would be no transitional deal unless a final trading relationship is settled with the EU. On the release front, British CBI Industrial Order Expectations came in well below the estimates. No major UK data release is expected today. USD/JPY Yen is trading marginally stronger today. The slowing down of manufacturing activity , which fell from a four month high registered in September caused some dampening in sentiment. Inflation data to be released later this week will be keenly tracked. Yen is trading at ~113.33 levels against the USD. USD/CNY The Yuan opened ~0.2% stronger at ~6.306 against the US Dollar amid the weakness in the greenback. Investors await developments in the 19th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party in China that concludes today. On the liquidity front, the PBOC injected a net CNY140 bn in liquidity via open-market operations on Tuesday, the sixth consecutive trading day the PBOC has made a net injection. AUD/USD The Australian Dollar is trading ~0.1% stronger at ~0.7817 against the greenback ahead of the Q3 inflation data due tomorrow. Markets have priced in a 2% YoY inflation rate which falls within the RBA’s target range of 2-3%. However core measures of inflation are likely to be soft, indicating the RBA will be in no rush to raise interest rates. USD/CAD The Canadian Dollar is trading ~0.2% stronger against the greenback at ~1.2626 on the back of softer US Dollar. Markets await the Bank of Canada (BoC) policy decision scheduled tomorrow where the central bank is anticipated to keep rates unchanged. However, markets have not entirely ruled out the possibility of another rate hike in December. A press conference by Governor Stephen Poloz following the policy decision tomorrow will be keenly eyed for further cues. Sensex Benchmark equity indices are trading marginally higher on tepid cues from global equity markets. During the day, shares are expected to move in a narrow range as the focus remains on earnings results. Today, Nifty 50 constituents HDFC Bank, , , Asian Paints and Zee Entertainment Enterprises will detail their July-September earnings. In specific stocks, shares of hotel companies may gain after media reports said the tourism ministry seeks a lower goods and services tax rate for four-star and five-star hotels. Indian The Rupee is trading stronger against the US Dollar this morning, as the dollar index fell overnight after investors booked profits in the US unit. Further, foreign Rupee banks may sell the greenback on behalf of foreign portfolio investors who might invest in domestic financial markets. Sale of the greenback by some exporters may also support the Indian currency. However, purchases of Dollars by major state-owned banks for oil importers, are expected to weigh on the Indian currency. G-Sec Gilts are steady, as traders are likely to avoid big bets ahead of the state loan auction worth INR 120 bn and the heavy supply of securities due to hit the market this week. Some dealers said that bonds may be supported at prevailing levels, following the sharp fall in prices today. Later in the day, bonds may take cues from the outcome of the state loan auction. Any sharp movement in global crude oil prices and US Treasury yields may lend cues to domestic bonds early in the day. Oil (Brent) Oil edged higher, with WTI rising for the third consecutive day, while Brent recovered after shedding 0.7% in the previous session. Crude prices have been (USD/bbl) buoyed in recent days by the drop in northern Iraqi shipments (exports remain at less than half of the normal levels) due to the ongoing military clashes in the region, however, the unexpected decline in Southern Iraq exports by 110,000 barrels per day over last month have further pushed prices. Markets await the API data on US stockpiles, due for release today. Brent and WTI are currently trading at USD 57.5/barrel and USD 52.0/barrel respectively. Gold Gold is trading marginally higher this morning, up by 0.1%, extending its one day gain from yesterday. The yellow metal has recovered since it touched a two (USD/oz) week low at USD1272.61/oz in the previous session, on the back of a slightly weaker Dollar. Gold is currently trading at USD 1282.5/oz.

Disclaimer

2

Morning Market Starter Any information in this email should not be construed as an offer, invitation, solicitation, solution or advice of any kind to buy or sell any financial products or services offered by ICICI Bank, unless specifically stated so. ICICI Bank is not acting as your financial adviser or in a fiduciary capacity in respect of this proposed transaction with you unless otherwise expressly agreed by us in writing. Before entering into any transaction you should take steps to ensure that you understand the transaction and have made an independent assessment of the appropriateness of the transaction in the light of your own objectives and circumstances, including the possible risks and benefits of entering into such transaction. You may consider asking advice from your advisers in making this assessment

Disclaimer for US/UK/Belgium residents

This document is issued solely by ICICI Bank Limited (‘’ICICI’’). The material in this document is derived from sources ICICI believes to be reliable but which have not been independently verified. In preparing this document, ICICI has relied upon and assumed, the accuracy and completeness of all information available from public sources ICICI makes no guarantee of the accuracy and completeness of factual or analytical data and is not responsible for errors of transmission or reception. The opinions contained in such material constitute the judgment of ICICI in relation to the matters which are the subject of such material as at the date of its publication, all of which are expressed without any responsibility on ICICI’s part and are subject to change without notice. ICICI has no duty to update this document, the opinions, factual or analytical data contained herein. The information and opinions in such material are given by ICICI as part of its internal research activity and not as manager of or adviser in relation to any assets or investments and no consideration has been given to the particular needs of any recipient.

Except for the historical information contained herein, statements in this document, which contain words or phrases such as 'will', 'would', etc., and similar expressions or variations of such expressions may constitute 'forward-looking statements'. These forward-looking statements involve a number of risks, uncertainties and other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those suggested by the forward-looking statements. ICICI Bank undertakes no obligation to update forward-looking statements to reflect events or circumstances after the date thereof. Nothing contained in this publication shall constitute or be deemed to constitute an offer to sell/purchase or as an invitation or solicitation to do so for any securities or financial products of any entity. ICICI Bank and/or its Affiliates, ("ICICI Group") make no representation as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of any information contained herein or otherwise provided and hereby disclaim any liability with regard to the same. ICICI Group or its officers, employees, personnel, directors may be associated in a commercial or personal capacity or may have a commercial interest including as proprietary traders in or with the securities and/or companies or issues or matters as contained in this publication and such commercial capacity or interest whether or not differing with or conflicting with this publication, shall not make or render ICICI Group liable in any manner whatsoever & ICICI Group or any of its officers, employees, personnel, directors shall not be liable for any loss, damage, liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect loss arising from the use or access of any information that may be displayed in this publication from time to time

This document is intended for distribution solely to customers of ICICI. No part of this report may be copied or redistributed by any recipient for any purpose without ICICI’s prior written consent. If the reader of this message is not the intended recipient and has received this transmission in error, please immediately notify ICICI, Samir Tripathi, E-mail: [email protected] or by telephone at +9122-2653-7233 and please delete this message from your system.

DISCLAIMER FOR DUBAI INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL CENTRE (“DIFC”) CLIENTS:

“This marketing material is distributed by ICICI Bank Ltd., Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC) Branch and is intended only for ‘professional clients’ not retail clients. The financial products or financial services to which the marketing material relates to will only be made available to a ‘professional client’ as defined in the DFSA rule book via section COB 2.3.2. Professional clients as defined by DFSA need to have net assets of USD 500,000/- and have sufficient experience and understanding of relevant financial markets, products or transactions and any associated risks. The DIFC branch of ICICI Bank Ltd., is a duly licensed Category 1 Authorized Firm and regulated by the DFSA”.

DISCLOSURE FOR RESIDENTS IN THE UNITED ARAB EMIRATES (“UAE”):

This document is for personal use only and shall in no way be construed as a general offer for the sale of Products to the public in the UAE, or as an attempt to conduct business, as a financial institution or otherwise, in the UAE. Investors should note that any products mentioned in this document, any offering material related thereto and any interests therein have not been approved or licensed by the UAE Central Bank or by any other relevant licensing authority in the UAE, and they do not constitute a public offer of products in the UAE in accordance with the Commercial Companies Law, Federal Law No. 8 of 1984 (as amended) or otherwise.

3