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Program Book; Recruiters ashington | August 8 tle, W –13, 2 Seat 015 JSM PROGRAM2015 BOOK Table of Contents General Conference Information Housing ................................................................................................4 Special Events ......................................................................................7 Featured Speakers ................................................................................9 Washington State Convention Center Floor Plans ...............................20 The Conference Center........................................................................25 Grand Hyatt Floor Plans ......................................................................26 Sheraton Seattle Floor Plans ..............................................................27 What You Need to Know EXPO 2015 Floor Plan .........................................................................10 Who’s Who at EXPO 2015 ...................................................................11 Career Service ....................................................................................19 Technical Sessions at a Glance ............................................................28 JSM 2015 Program Committee ........................................................305 General Program Friday, August 7 .................................................................................33 Saturday, August 8 .............................................................................33 Sunday, August 9 ...............................................................................34 Monday, August 10 ............................................................................65 Tuesday, August 11 ..........................................................................129 Wednesday, August 12 .....................................................................193 Thursday, August 13 .........................................................................249 Indexes Index of JSM Participants and CE Instructors ....................................276 Index of Advertisers .........................................................................304 !!! NEED TO KNOW Convention Housing Emergency Telephone Messages In case of emergency, messages may be left Sheraton Seattle Hotel (HQ) (206) 621-9000 during registration hours by calling (206) Grand Hyatt Seattle (206) 774-1234 219-4503. Messages will be posted at the Hyatt at Olive 8 (206) 695-1234 Cyber Center, located in the registration area. Homewood Suites Seattle (206) 682-8282 Motif Seattle (206) 971-8000 Assistance for Those with Disabilities Hilton Seattle (206) 624-0500 Please contact a staff member at the Help Desk in the registration area of Crowne Plaza Hotel Seattle (206) 464-1980 the Washington State Convention Center if Fairmont Olympic Hotel (206) 621-1700 you have a disability that may impede your Renaissance Seattle Hotel (206) 583-0300 participation. Seattle University (206) 296-5620 (Economy Housing) Child Care W Hotel Seattle (206) 264-6000 KiddieCorp is the official child care provider for JSM 2015. Arrangements should have Warwick Hotel (206) 443-4300 s JSM App been made in advance. Please contact Download the official KiddieCorp at (858) 455-1718 or info@ Policies JSM 2015 app! Get last- kiddiecorp.com with any questions or to ELECTRONIC DEVICES minute updates, create check possible availability. All cell phones and other your own schedule, electronic devices should be play the JSM Challenge JSM Proceedings silenced before attending for prizes, and more. Eligibility guidelines and author instructions any session or meeting. for JSM 2015 presenters are available at Available on Google Play www.amstat.org/meetings/jsm/2015/ SMOKING and the App Store; free. proceedings.cfm. The submission site will Smoking is not permitted at open on August 27, 2015, and close on any JSM function, unless the WiFi October 2, 2015. event is held outside. COMPLIMENTARY JSM 2016 VIDEOTAPING WIFI AT THE Using video equipment during The 2016 Joint Statistical Meetings will be WASHINGTON STATE held in Chicago, Illinois, July 30 – August 4 any JSM session or event is CONVENTION CENTER prohibited. at McCormick Place. Check out the details at Network: JSM2015 Booth # 514 in the exhibit hall. RECYCLING No password needed Please use the paper, plastic, and aluminum Membership trash containers located throughout the COMPLIMENTARY WIFI Information about the ASA, WNAR, IMS, Washington State Convention Center. AT THE SHERATON SSC, ICSA, IISA, and KISS is available at the society booths in the registration area and Also, participating in the towel and linen SEATTLE HOTEL exhibit hall. Each society provides a variety programs at area hotels makes a significant Network: Sheraton- of publications and activities to anyone difference in the amount of energy and Seattle-Meeting-Room interested in applied and or theoretical water used. Password: JSM2015 statistics, and student membership is offered Finally, place JSM badges and badge at substantially reduced rates. holders in one of the designated bins in the registration area when leaving. 4 JSM 2015 NEED TO KNOW !!! Hours of Operation REGISTRATION AND ASA MEMBERSHIP/ EXPO 2015 HELP DESK/PRESS DESK CC-HALL 4B CC-ATRIUM LOBBY Visit publishers, software companies, and JSM registration includes the Program Book; recruiters. See state-of-the-art products access to the exhibit hall; and admission to designed for the statistical community. the Opening Mixer, Student Mixer (students only), and JSM Dance Party. Sunday 1:00 p.m. – 6:00 p.m. Monday – Tuesday 9:00 a.m. – 5:30 p.m. Meetings Conduct Policy Saturday 7:30 a.m. – 6:00 p.m. As a professional society, Wednesday 9:00 a.m. – 2:30 p.m. the American Statistical Sunday 7:30 a.m. – 8:30 p.m. Association (ASA) is committed Monday 7:30 a.m. – 6:00 p.m. to providing an atmosphere CYBER CENTER that encourages the free Tuesday – Wednesday 7:30 a.m. – 4:30 p.m. CC- ATRIUM LOBBY expression and exchange of Thursday 7:30 a.m. – 10:30 a.m. There are 15 terminals with Internet access ideas. Consistent with this commitment, it is the policy available for your emailing needs, as well as of the ASA that all participants SATELLITE REGISTRATION three printers. in ASA activities will enjoy a welcoming environment free S-SECOND FLOOR Saturday 7:30 a.m. – 6:00 p.m. from unlawful discrimination, Saturday 7:30 a.m. – 6:00 p.m. harassment, and retaliation. All Sunday 7:30 a.m. – 10:30 p.m. participants in ASA activities Sunday 7:30 a.m. – 1:30 p.m. Monday – Tuesday 7:30 a.m. – 10:00 p.m. also agree to comply with all rules and conditions of the Wednesday 7:30 a.m. – 6:00 p.m. activities, which are subject to SPEAKER MANAGEMENT ROOM Thursday 7:30 a.m. – 10:30 a.m. change without notice. CC-604 Please read the complete Speakers are required to check in four hours Conduct Policy before prior to their presentations to upload their ASA MARKETPLACE (INSIDE EXPO 2015) attending: www.amstat. CC-HALL 4B materials to the speaker management org/meetings/jsm/2015/ registration.cfm. system or confirm their materials were The ASA Marketplace is your store for the uploaded correctly. Session chairs also official JSM 2015 T-shirt and other JSM and should check in to confirm all speakers have ASA souvenirs. uploaded their materials. Sunday 1:00 p.m. – 6:00 p.m., 8:30 p.m. – 10:30 p.m. Questions? Saturday 12:00 p.m. – 6:00 p.m. New to JSM? Find a Monday – Tuesday 9:00 a.m. – 5:30 p.m. Sunday 9:00 a.m. – 7:00 p.m. JSM docent to help you Wednesday 9:00 a.m. – 2:30 p.m. Monday – Wednesday 7:00 a.m. – 6:00 p.m. learn the ropes. JSM Thursday 7:00 a.m. – 10:30 a.m. docents are experienced SEATTLE RESTAURANT & TOURISM JSM attendees wearing INFORMATION CENTER purple ribbons on their CAREER SERVICE CC-UPPER PIKE STREET LOBBY badges who can help CC-HALL 4A Operated by Visit Seattle, this center you make the most of Saturday 9:00 a.m. – 5:00 p.m. provides extensive information and referrals your experience. (job posting for restaurants and sightseeing. Stop by and résumé the desk and pick up current maps and submission only) travel information. Sunday 1:00 p.m. – 6:00 p.m. Sunday 9:00 a.m. – 5:00 p.m. Monday – Tuesday 8:00 a.m. – 5:30 p.m. Monday – Wednesday 9:00 a.m. – 6:00 p.m. Wednesday 8:00 a.m. – 2:30 p.m. (onsite registration closes at noon) Seattle, Washington 5 !!! NEED TO KNOW Spotlight Seattle Spotlight Seattle is an exciting new addition to the JSM EXPO! With a variety of events throughout the week, we give you a little taste of the city in case you are too busy to get away from the convention center. POTLIGHT Monday, August 10 Tuesday, August 11 S 9:00 A.M. – SEATTLE INSIDER TIPS 10:00 A.M. – JSM COFFEE HOUSE Whether you are here for the Grab a cup of coffee and take first time or have explored a break with some live local Seattle before, find out what Seattle entertainment. Also Seattle has to offer and enter check out information about Wednesday, August 12 to win cool prizes, too! area nightspots and live 10:00 A.M. – JSM COFFEE HOUSE music venues. 10:00 A.M. – JSM COFFEE HOUSE 1:30 P.M. – POPCORN BREAK Seattle Sponsored by SANOFI 1:30 P.M. – POPCORN BREAK Sponsored by XLSTAT Refresh with a cup of coffee Sponsored by XLSTAT Sunday, August 9 or tea and take this chance 3:30 P.M. – NORTHWEST WINE to tag the wall! 1:00 P.M. – SPOTLIGHT SEATTLE TASTING BAR KICK-OFF 11:00 A.M. – 3:00 P.M. – Don’t miss this chance Find out what this new area JSM PHOTO BOOTH to taste local wines is all about. Bring a pen Stop by and create memories (while supplies
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