Russia and Eurasia Programme Event Summary

Georgia: The 2016 Elections and Beyond

David Usupashvili

Speaker, Parliament of Neil MacFarlane

University of Oxford

07 October 2015

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2 Georgia: The 2016 Elections and Beyond

On 7 October 2015, the Russia and Eurasia Programme hosted a roundtable with the speaker of the , David Usupashvili, and Professor Neil MacFarlane from the University of Oxford. The meeting addressed Georgia’s political environment, the 2016 elections and prospects for the future.

The 2016 parliamentary elections

Georgia is mid-way through the process of establishing a parliamentary democracy following 2013’s power shift from its president to prime minister. The upcoming parliamentary elections will continue the practice started in 2012 of conducting polls in accordance with international standards. This is an area in which the country is continually improving as is shown by the World Bank’s positive assessment using its worldwide governance indicators.

The present parliament is formed of the ruling coalition and the opposition. The opposition is defined as being against an individual, as opposed to a set of ideas. The elections in 2016 are forecast to result in a broader spread of votes and further diversification. This will yield a higher majority of pro-western, EU and NATO contingents, while also bolstering those in favour of Russia at the expense of NATO. These self-proclaimed ‘Georgian patriots’ are likely to see an increase in support stemming from disillusionment surrounding NATO membership.

Continuing challenges

Although a number of positive developments have been noted, including the introduction of a genuinely pluralistic system and a degree of depersonalization in politics, potentially problematic areas remain. Political parties must be strengthened, which may prove difficult if predictions of a broader spread of votes in 2016 are accurate. This could negatively affect the viability of a coalition. Considering Georgian politics since 1990, Professor MacFarlane observed a pattern of new faces and initial great enthusiasm, followed by disillusionment and sudden changes in power, all but the most recent of which have been unconstitutional.

While opposition is deemed by the public to be a positive thing, Mr Usupashvili alluded to the difficulty of making decisions. Some laws have also been nullified by the constitutional courts. Although public services are improving, indicating the stability of the state, issues such as unemployment and inflation remain causes for concern. Popular views on government effectiveness also vary. According to a recent National Democratic Institute (NDI) poll, this is particularly true of minority-populated areas, despite efforts to integrate them into politics.

Political and popular influencers

Professor MacFarlane raised the question of the influence of other variables in modern Georgian politics; in particular the issue of religious populism and the role of the founder of the Georgian Dream coalition, . In the case of the former, Mr Usupashvili acknowledged that the Georgian Orthodox church remains the country’s most trusted institution, attributable in part to communication failures by democratic institutions. However, he argued that the church does not exercise particularly damaging political influence, referring to the example of the anti-discrimination law adopted 18 months ago despite church opposition.

Mr Ivanishvili, who stepped down as prime minister in 2013, unquestionably retains influence in Georgian politics. Although his orderly surrender of power was commendable, the Georgian Dream party was initially formed around him, resulting in a lack of identity and confusion upon his resignation. Mr 3 Georgia: The 2016 Elections and Beyond

Usupashvili believes that he stepped down too soon, and hopes the problems this created will be solved by the upcoming election.

There has been progress towards an independent media since the time when 90 per cent of outlets were under government control. Although it remains polarized, the media is now able to voice criticism of the government. However, the most successful private broadcasting company Rustavi 2, which played an integral role in the 2003 , is currently subject to an ownership dispute with potential political ramifications.

The question of covert Russian attempts to influence the Georgian population was also raised. Although Mr Usupashvili noted that Russian media institutions and non-state actors, including those affiliated with Rossotrudnichestvo, are present in Georgia, they are less prevalent than in many of the other post-Soviet states. Despite their efforts, there are few tangible results of Russian propaganda visible.

NATO membership

Popular support for NATO membership remains at around 65 per cent, despite growing uncertainty over how best to proceed. Mr Usupashvili emphasized that Georgia took the membership promise made at the 2008 Bucharest Summit seriously, and stated that the country will continue to push hard for accession. Georgia has taken several steps to prove its aspirations as a partner, including through providing the second largest contingent of soldiers of any state to Afghanistan. A NATO training centre was also established in August 2015. However, the mixed views amongst existing members that prevented Georgia being offered a Membership Action Plan in 2008 remain, with Professor MacFarlane noting a lack of forward momentum.

Despite only 9 per cent of the population considering NATO membership one of the nation’s most important issues, it undoubtedly occupies considerable space in the political agenda. Georgia’s accession is conceptualized in terms of regional and global security, particularly in light of the Russo-Georgian war, which followed the Bucharest Summit. In this regard, Mr Usupashvili underlined the need for tangible progress on Georgian membership at the 2016 Warsaw Summit. Failure to address this question would be ‘toxic’, given the message it would send to Moscow. Nonetheless, this would not result in Georgia abandoning its objective, although Mr Usupashvili acknowledged it would become increasingly difficult.

Foreign policy

Mr Usupashvili characterized Georgia’s foreign policy as clear and consistent, while acknowledging deficiencies in its effectiveness. However, he deemed it to be sufficiently diversified from a previous focus on Washington and NATO, highlighting an increased emphasis on bilateral relations with the likes of France and Poland.

In a new policy trend, Georgia is now looking east as well as west, prioritizing relations not only with its immediate neighbours in the South Caucasus and Turkey, but also with the Central Asian states, Iran and China. Georgia could function as an energy corridor for Europe, providing the oil and gas-producing nations of the region with a means of bypassing Russia. In the case of Iran, ties are being cultivated for when the state emerges as a full international player. Although Chinese economic involvement is welcomed, including through its ‘One Belt, One Road’ project, Mr Usupashvili recognized the indirect security questions this poses.

4 Georgia: The 2016 Elections and Beyond

While Georgia maintains friendly relations with Ukraine, Mr Usupashvili conceded that ’s role as governor of Odessa, while simultaneously remaining head of the UNM opposition party, could be unhelpful for bilateral relations. Since the Russian annexation of Crimea, Georgian disillusionment with NATO has increased, with Mr Usupashvili comparing the situation to Russian involvement in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, which saw less international involvement.

Despite the situation in Ukraine, Georgia seeks to normalize its relations with Russia. Mr Usupashvili believes that improving relations with the EU simultaneously is possible. However, he denied that Georgia is heading towards membership of the Eurasian Economic Union, noting that an EU Customs Union precludes such a move. EU-Georgia relations were deemed to be on the right track, with positive benefits of the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area agreement including a 180 per cent increase in wine exports to the EU over the course of six months.