North East Cardiff

North East Cardiff (West of Pontprennau) Environmental Impact Assessment Outline Planning Application Volume 1: Main Text Chapter 4: Socio-Economic Effects Taylor Wimpey and NECLC

CONTENTS

4.1 INTRODUCTION ...... 3

4.2 ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY ...... 4 Scope ...... 4 Study Area ...... 4 Catchment Areas ...... 4 Assessment approach ...... 5 Significance criteria ...... 5 Assumptions, Uncertainties and Limitations ...... 6 Data sources ...... 7 Data sets ...... 7

4.3 RELEVANT POLICY ...... 8 Planning Policy Wales (PPW) (Edition 9, November 2016) ...... 8 National Policy and Guidance ...... 9 The Wales Spatial Plan (WSP) – People Places, Futures (Update 2008) ...... 9 Technical Advice Notes (TAN) ...... 9 The Development Plan ...... 10 Cardiff Local Development Plan (January 2016) ...... 10 Background Technical Papers ...... 11 Supplementary Planning Guidance ...... 11

4.4 BASELINE CONDITIONS ...... 12 Population ...... 12 Housing ...... 13 Affordable Housing ...... 15 Economy and employment ...... 16 Employment Profile ...... 16 Unemployment ...... 19 Health ...... 20 Crime and Safety...... 22 Education ...... 23 Nursery ...... 23 Primary School ...... 24 Secondary ...... 25 Higher Education ...... 26 The Welsh Index of Multiple Deprivation ...... 27 Libraries ...... 28 Parks and Open Space ...... 29 Sports facilities ...... 30 The Study Area ...... 32 The Projected Future Baseline ...... 33 Population ...... 33 Housing ...... 33 Education ...... 33 Sensitivity of Receptors ...... 34

4.5 POTENTIAL EFFECTS ...... 36 Construction stage ...... 36 Post-completion stage ...... 36 Effects on Population ...... 37 Effects on the Housing Market ...... 37 Effects on the Economy and Employment ...... 38 Effects on Retail ...... 41 Effects on Education Provision ...... 41

North East Cardiff (West of Pontprennau) Environmental Impact Assessment Outline Planning Application Volume 1: Main Text Chapter 4: Socio-Economic Effects Taylor Wimpey and NECLC

Effects on Library Services ...... 45 Effects on Crime and Safety ...... 46 Effects on Health Facilities ...... 46 Effects on Open Space Provision ...... 47

4.6 MITIGATION MEASURES ...... 50

4.7 RESIDUAL EFFECTS ...... 51

4.8 CUMULATIVE EFFECTS ...... 54 Population ...... 55 Housing ...... 56 Education ...... 57 Libraries ...... 58 Crime and Safety...... 58 Health ...... 58 Open Space ...... 59

North East Cardiff (West of Pontprennau) Environmental Impact Assessment Outline Planning Application Volume 1: Main Text Chapter 4: Socio-Economic Effects Taylor Wimpey and NECLC

4.1 INTRODUCTION

4.1.1 This chapter, contributed to by David Lock Associates, sets out the socio-economic effects the Proposed Development can be anticipated to have on the surrounding area. It covers the following:

• Population, • Housing, • Economy, • Retail, and • Social and Community Infrastructure.

4.1.2 This chapter sets out the current social and economic conditions relevant to the application site and surrounding area in order to establish the baseline conditions whilst having regard to relevant national and local planning policy objectives with respect to social and economic considerations.

4.1.3 Against the area’s baseline conditions, the significance of the likely impacts of the proposed development are assessed and any mitigation measures required to prevent, reduce or offset any significant adverse impacts are identified.

North East Cardiff (West of Pontprennau) Environmental Impact Assessment Outline Planning Application Volume 1: Main Text Chapter 4: Socio-Economic Effects Taylor Wimpey and NECLC

4.2 ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY

Scope

4.2.1 The assessment of the socio-economic effects of the Proposed Development covers the following:

• Population – the characteristics of Cardiff’s residents now as well as those projected for the future; • Housing – the need for new homes, housing affordability and tenure; • Economy – covering economic impacts such as construction jobs and on-site jobs in the commercial and other non-residential components of the Proposed Development; jobs off-site supported through expenditure of the scheme’s residents; labour market implications; and fiscal impacts; • Retail – retail expenditure generated by residents and workers within the Proposed Development; • Social and community infrastructure - covering healthcare impacts; sports provision impacts; open space impacts; and adult social care impacts; and • Educational – covering the current educational provision, identifying any surplus or shortage and outlining the possible education impact from the proposed development.

Study Area

4.2.2 Impacts are assessed across three geographies, depending on the specific receptor. The geographies are:

• The Study Area (North East Cardiff) comprising of Lisvane, Llanishen, and Pontprennau/Old St Mellons wards; • The local area, which varies by receptor (see the Catchment Areas sub-section below); • Cardiff as a whole; and • Wales, where appropriate.

Catchment Areas

4.2.3 For the most part, a 2-mile radius was used to assess the local area of impact. Higher order services and facilities, such as retail provision, the local impact was assessed across Cardiff as a whole rather than applying a strict quantitative radius as people are willing to travel further for higher order services and facilities.

North East Cardiff (West of Pontprennau) Environmental Impact Assessment Outline Planning Application Volume 1: Main Text Chapter 4: Socio-Economic Effects Taylor Wimpey and NECLC

4.2.4 We have applied catchment radii from the centre of the Site. In effect the analysis therefore includes the minimum (from the Site Centre) number of facilities and capacity within the Site’s catchment, or in other words the worst-case scenario.

Assessment approach

4.2.5 The assessment of socio-economic effects has been undertaken on the basis of the following key elements:

• Policy review to provide an outline of the relevant national and local social and economic objectives for the area; • Desktop review of all available information on the current socio-economic conditions within Cardiff focusing on the key issues of population, economy, retail, libraries, health, education, open space and sports provision; • Assessment of the potential effects resulting from the proposed development on the basis of a variety of socio-economic objectives and the impact of the proposed development on the local area; and • Assessment of the potential cumulative effects resulting from the proposed development and surrounding developments on the basis of a variety of socio- economic objectives and the impact on the local and wider area.

4.2.6 For the assessment of social and economic effects, where there is no recommended method and it is difficult to quantify effects, a broader assessment is made of whether effects are beneficial, neutral, or adverse, based on professional judgement and experience.

Significance criteria

4.2.7 There are no generally accepted criteria for assessing the significance of socio- economic effects and, in some cases, it can be difficult to quantify or measure such effects. The assessment of significance of impacts is based on the magnitude of the predicted change to the baseline position, as well as the sensitivity of the socioeconomic “receptors”. Where the effect has been difficult to quantify, qualitative professional judgment has been applied, based on experience.

4.2.8 Impacts are identified as either beneficial or adverse, whilst their significance is classified as either “major”, “moderate”, “minor” or “negligible” (Table 4.3). Magnitudes of change are rated as Large, Moderate, Small or Negligible and can be Direct or Indirect, and

North East Cardiff (West of Pontprennau) Environmental Impact Assessment Outline Planning Application Volume 1: Main Text Chapter 4: Socio-Economic Effects Taylor Wimpey and NECLC

Beneficial or Adverse. Examples of changes of each of these levels of magnitude are set out in Table 4.1 below.

[Table 4.1: Magnitude criteria]

Magnitude Description Large Large change in baseline conditions which would be noticeable in terms of absolute or % change Percentage change would be 21% or greater Moderate Minor shift away from baseline conditions which would be noticeable in terms of absolute or % change Percentage change would be 10-20% Small Slight change from baseline conditions Percentage change would be 6-10% Negligible No discernible change from baseline conditions No or small percentage change (<5%)

[Table 4.2: Sensitivity criteria]

Sensitivity Description High Receptor is identified as a policy priority Evidence of major socio-economic challenge or underperformance Medium Receptor is important in policy Evidence of under-performance or vulnerability Low Receptor is not a policy priority Evidence that the receptor is resilient and no particular challenges Negligible Receptor is not a policy priority Good overall performance in impact area

[Table 4.3: Significance criteria]

MAGNITUDE SENSITIVITY High Medium Low Negligible Large Major Major Moderate Minor Moderate Major Moderate Minor Negligible Small Moderate Minor Minor Negligible Negligible Minor Negligible Negligible Negligible

Assumptions, Uncertainties and Limitations

4.2.5 One of the most significant limitations with this assessment is the 2011 Census data which is now 7 years out of date and due to be updated in 2021. However, it is accepted that this is the standard and most accurate method for gathering population data to date. Population projections have been used where appropriate.

North East Cardiff (West of Pontprennau) Environmental Impact Assessment Outline Planning Application Volume 1: Main Text Chapter 4: Socio-Economic Effects Taylor Wimpey and NECLC

4.2.6 One further limitation of this assessment was due to the availability of publicly accessible data and therefore assumptions have been made on projections from the 2011 Census.

Data sources

Data sets

4.2.7 Data for this assessment has largely been drawn from the Office of National Statistics, 2011 Census Data and Cardiff Council publications. Where more up-to-date information was required the following sources were used:

• Police.uk – Website was used for up-to-date crime statistics; • TheCompleteUniversityGuide.co.uk – Website for university rankings in Cardiff; • UKpopulation.org – Website was used for more recent population statistics; and • Statswales.gov.wales – Website was used for up-to-date pupil projection statistics.

North East Cardiff (West of Pontprennau) Environmental Impact Assessment Outline Planning Application Volume 1: Main Text Chapter 4: Socio-Economic Effects Taylor Wimpey and NECLC

4.3 RELEVANT POLICY

4.3.1 A broader review of planning policy and guidance for the Proposed Development is provided within Chapter 3 of this Environmental Statement. However, this section provides a synopsis of the planning policies that are particularly relevant for this socio- economic assessment.

Planning Policy Wales (PPW) (Edition 9, November 2016)

4.3.2 The PPW sets out the Welsh Government’s planning policies and how these are expected to be applied. The PPW is supplemented by a series of Technical Advice Notes (TANs). The PPW in setting out the role of the planning system:

• Reconcile the needs of development and conservation; • Secure economic, efficiency and amenity in the use of land; and • Protect the natural resources and historic environment.

4.3.3 The PPW reinforces that a well-functioning planning system is fundamental for sustainable development.

4.3.4 Paragraph 7.13 of the PPW specifically details that the planning system should support economic and employment growth alongside social and environmental considerations within the context of sustainable development. The guidance outlines that wherever possible, local authorities should seek to guide and control economic development to facilitate to facilitate regeneration and promote social and environmental sustainability. In doing so, local authorities should aim to:

• co-ordinate development with infrastructure provision; • support national, regional, and local economic policies and strategies; • align jobs and services with housing, wherever possible, so as to reduce the need for travel, especially by car; • promote the re-use of previously developed, vacant and underused land; and • deliver physical regeneration and employment opportunities to disadvantaged communities.

4.3.5 Similarly, paragraph 7.14 outlines that local authorities should aim to steer economic development to the most appropriate locations, rather than prevent or discourage such development.

North East Cardiff (West of Pontprennau) Environmental Impact Assessment Outline Planning Application Volume 1: Main Text Chapter 4: Socio-Economic Effects Taylor Wimpey and NECLC

4.3.6 PPW also includes the Welsh Government’s wellbeing goals required under the Well- being of Future Generations (Wales) Act 2015 which places a duty on public bodies to carry out sustainable development. This includes promoting prosperity, good health, equality, cohesive communities and more.

National Policy and Guidance

The Wales Spatial Plan (WSP) – People Places, Futures (Update 2008)

4.3.7 The Wales Spatial Plan (WSP) – People, Places, Futures was adopted in 2004 and subsequently updated in 2008. The 20-year vision, role, purpose and principles of the WSP include:

• making sure that decisions are taken with regard to their impact beyond sectoral or administrative boundaries and that the core values of sustainable development govern everything we do; • setting the context for local and community planning; • influencing where we spend money through understanding the roles of and interactions between places; and • providing a clear evidence base for the public, private and third (voluntary) sectors to develop policy and action.

4.3.8 The WSP outlines that the future of Wales depends on the vitality of communities as attractive places to live and work. This principle applies to both new and existing communities and has informed this assessment.

Technical Advice Notes (TAN)

4.3.9 Technical Advice Notes (TAN) should be taken into account by local planning authorities when they are preparing development plans. TAN 16 Sport, Recreation and Open Space (2009).

4.3.10 TAN23 relates specifically to Economic Development. Paragraph 2.1.1 outlines that it should not be assumed that economic objectives are necessarily in conflict with social and environmental objectives. This principle of considering objectives holistically rather than in competition with one or another has informed the approach used in this assessment.

North East Cardiff (West of Pontprennau) Environmental Impact Assessment Outline Planning Application Volume 1: Main Text Chapter 4: Socio-Economic Effects Taylor Wimpey and NECLC

The Development Plan

Cardiff Local Development Plan (January 2016)

4.3.11 The Adopted Local Development Plan (LDP) for Cardiff contains a number of objectives which are set out under four main headings, all of which are relevant to this assessment:

1. To respond to evidenced economic needs and provide the necessary infrastructure to deliver development; 2. To respond to evidenced social needs; 3. To deliver economic and social needs in a co-ordinated way that respects and enhances Cardiff’s environment; and 4. To create sustainable neighbourhoods that form part of a sustainable city.

4.3.12 Expanding on these wider objectives, the LDP further sets out requirements for housing and economic growth as follows:

• Housing requirements – 41,415 new dwellings between 2006 and 2026 (inclusive), equivalent to 1,883 dwellings per annum (pa). • Economy/job creation – Create 40,000 new jobs in Cardiff between 2006 and 2026 (inclusive), or 1,819 new jobs pa. • Education – Necessary education and training facilities are provided and are accessible to all. • Health and Social Care Facilities – Providing a range of community, health, religious and educational facilities which are accessible to as many people as possible.

4.3.13 The objectives and targets outlined have been considered as relevant to this Chapter and influencing the assessment undertaken.

4.3.14 Policy KP2 (F) allocates the land at North East Cardiff (West of Pontprennau) for: “a mixed-use comprehensive development of a minimum of 4,500 homes, employment and other associated community use together with essential enabling and necessary supporting infrastructure which will be delivered in a phased manner with specific details formally tied into planning consents”.

4.3.15 Policy KP14 seeks to ensure that Cardiff will be made a healthier place to live by reducing health inequalities through encouraging healthy lifestyles.

4.3.16 Policy H3 (Affordable Housing) requires 30% affordable housing on Greenfield sites.

North East Cardiff (West of Pontprennau) Environmental Impact Assessment Outline Planning Application Volume 1: Main Text Chapter 4: Socio-Economic Effects Taylor Wimpey and NECLC

Background Technical Papers

4.3.17 LDP Background Technical Paper No.11: Economic Technical Paper (October 2012) provides the Council’s evidence base in order to inform the economic policies of the Plan, but specifically, the delivery of employment land. The document makes reference to the LDP Vision and Objectives which were approved by Cardiff Council in March 2011. This document reinforces the vision set out in the Economic Strategy and outlines that the vision for Cardiff is that: “By 2020… Cardiff will be a world class European capital city with an exceptional quality of life at the heart of a thriving city region.”

Supplementary Planning Guidance

4.3.18 Supplementary Planning Guidance (SPG) is produced to provide further detail on certain policies and proposals contained within Cardiff’s Development Plan. SPG do not have the same status or weight as adopted Development Plan policies. However, the Government advises that they may be taken into account as a material consideration in determining planning applications.

4.3.19 The Planning for Health and Well-being SPG outlines that access and availability of health care services are crucial for economic, social and environmental sustainability.

4.3.20 The SPG details that as well as access to health services, developers should also take into account access to a wide range of services such as retail shops, libraries, schools etc. This consideration was factored into the assessment approach.

North East Cardiff (West of Pontprennau) Environmental Impact Assessment Outline Planning Application Volume 1: Main Text Chapter 4: Socio-Economic Effects Taylor Wimpey and NECLC

4.4 BASELINE CONDITIONS

4.4.1 This section describes current socio-economic conditions within the Study Area.

Population

4.4.2 Cardiff has a resident population of 346,0901. The mean age of the population is 37, with 48% of the population aged 15-44. In comparison, 43,847 people or 12.6% of Cardiff’s population are 65 years of age or over. Much of the population data presented in this chapter has been derived from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) 2011 Census data, unless otherwise stated. The age profile of Cardiff along with that of the study area; Pontprennau/OSM, Lisvane, and Llanishen is shown in Table 4.4.

[Table 4.4: The age profile of Cardiff and the study area]

Age Group Pontprennau/ Lisvane Llanishen Cardiff OSM 0-15 2,149 667 3,403 62,975 16-24 1,016 351 1,796 52,426 25-34 1,699 187 2,452 54,975 35-54 3,076 1,035 5,026 86,751 55-64 999 601 1,971 33,650 65-74 490 469 1,218 22,495 75+ 291 397 1,371 21,352 Total 9,720 3,707 17,417 346,090 Source: 2011 Census

4.4.3 The mean age for Cardiff in 2011 was 36.5, this compares to the national average of 40.6. In comparison the mean age of the wards that make up the study area are 34.7, 44.6 and 39.4 respectively.

4.4.4 More recent data on (Source: UKpopulation.org) the population of Cardiff in 2017 was 362,800 out of the 3,125,200 population for Wales as a whole (8.6%). The total population for the study area of four electoral districts (Pontprennau/Old St Mellons, Lisvane and Llanishen) in 2011 was 30,844.

1 2011 Census - Derived from Office for National Statistics Publications

North East Cardiff (West of Pontprennau) Environmental Impact Assessment Outline Planning Application Volume 1: Main Text Chapter 4: Socio-Economic Effects Taylor Wimpey and NECLC

Housing

4.4.5 Table 4.5 below provides a breakdown of the household composition according to the 2011 Census for Cardiff and the study area.

[Table 4.5: Household Composition of Cardiff and the study area]

Household Composition (%) Pontprennau Lisvane Llanishen Cardiff One person household: 5.2 11.2 12.9 10.8 Aged 65+ One person household: 17.6 7.3 19.2 22.2 Other One family only: All aged 4.1 17.6 7.0 6.0 65+ One family only: Married or 13.9 18.2 11.7 9.9 same-sex civil partnership couple: No children One family only: Married or 22.4 25.0 16.5 13.8 same-sex civil partnership couple: Dependent children One family only: Married or 6.1 8.4 5.7 4.9 same-sex civil partnership couple: All children non- dependent One family only: Cohabiting 8.4 2.3 6.6 6.1 couple: No children One family only: Cohabiting 4.5 1.5 4.3 3.7 couple: Dependent children One family only: Cohabiting 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.4 couple: All children non- dependent One family only: Lone 7.9 2.5 7.1 7.7 parent: Dependent children One family only: Lone 2.8 2.1 3.1 3.4 parent: All children non- dependent Other household types: 3.1 1.2 2.2 2.6 With dependent children Other household types: All 0.1 0.0 0.1 2.3 full-time students Other household types: All 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 aged 65 and over Other household types: 3.4 2.4 3.1 5.9 Other Source: 2011 Census

4.4.6 The average household size in Cardiff according to the 2011 Census is 2.34 persons, this compares to the Welsh national average of 2.21 persons. Table 4.6 below outlines the average household size for Cardiff and the study area.

North East Cardiff (West of Pontprennau) Environmental Impact Assessment Outline Planning Application Volume 1: Main Text Chapter 4: Socio-Economic Effects Taylor Wimpey and NECLC

[Table 4.6: Average household size of Cardiff and the study area]

Population Pontprennau/OSM Lisvane Llanishen Cardiff Total Population 9,720 3,707 17,417 346,090 Total Dwellings 3963 1485 7688 148093 Average Household size (persons per 2.45 2.50 2.27 2.34 household) (2 d.p) Source: 2011 Census

4.4.7 ONS data concludes that the median affordability ratio line (the median house price compared to median gross annual workplace-based earnings) for 2017 in Cardiff is 6.58 compared with 5.65 for Wales and 7.13 for England and Wales taken together. As such, full time workers in Cardiff can expect to pay on average 6.58 times their annual workplace-based earnings on purchasing a home. This compares favourably to the average in England but is more expensive compared to Wales as a whole.

4.4.8 The median affordability ratio line is reflected in housing tenure where Cardiff has a lower percentage (59.1%) of owner-occupied homes when compared to the national average (67.4%). In comparison there is a much higher percentage of owner-occupied homes across the study area which would suggest the North-East region of Cardiff is a relatively affluent area. The housing tenure for Cardiff compared with the study area is set out in Table 4.7.

[Table 4.7: Tenure breakdown for homes across Cardiff and the study area]

Pontprennau/OSM Lisvane Llanishen Cardiff No. % No. % No. % No. % Number of 3,870 1,444 7,489 142,557 households Owner 2,831 73.2 1,333 92.3 5,369 71.7 84,262 59.1 occupied Shared 36 0.9 4 0.3 97 1.3 639 0.4 ownership Social rented (from Local 54 1.4 10 0.7 598 8.0 13,547 9.5 Authority)) Social rented 298 7.7 3 0.2 320 4.3 10,827 7.6 (other Private rented 617 15.9 71 4.9 1,010 13.5 31,220 21.9

Other 39 1.0 6 0.4 84 1.1 2,248 1.6

Source: 2011 Census

North East Cardiff (West of Pontprennau) Environmental Impact Assessment Outline Planning Application Volume 1: Main Text Chapter 4: Socio-Economic Effects Taylor Wimpey and NECLC

4.4.9 The average rental prices for Cardiff are £1,176 per calendar month (pcm) and range from £597pcm for a one bedroom flat to £1,251pcm for a four-bedroom house2.

Affordable Housing

4.4.9 Cardiff Council published a Local Housing Market Assessment (LHMA) Update in 2013 forming part of the preparation of the Cardiff Local Development Plan (Adopted January 2016). The LHMA Update identified a requirement for 3,989 affordable dwellings per annum.

4.4.10 The LHMA 2013 Update identified that 79.9% of lone parent households in Cardiff would be unable to afford market housing (if they were to move home now). Single person households were also relatively unlikely to be able to afford, in addition to households comprising of two adults and two or more children. Households that contain two or more pensioners were found to be most likely to be able to afford market housing in Cardiff.

4.4.11 Overall, some 29.6% of all households in Cardiff are theoretically unable to afford market accommodation of an appropriate size at the present time. Table 4.8 breaks down the theoretical affordability of market housing in Cardiff.

[Table 4.8: Theoretical affordability of market housing in Cardiff]

Household Composition Households unable to afford (%) All households 29.6 Single pensioners 31.2 2 or more pensioners 10.2 Single non-pensioners 30.9 2 or more adults, no children 21.7 Lone parent 79.9 2+ adults, 1 child 19.9 2+ adults, 2+ children 25.3 Household head employed within Cardiff 21.5 Household head employed elsewhere 6.9 Household head not in employment 45.9 Source: Cardiff Council Local Housing Market Assessment Update, July 2013.

2 Cardiff Market Rent Summary (November 2018) www.home.co.uk

North East Cardiff (West of Pontprennau) Environmental Impact Assessment Outline Planning Application Volume 1: Main Text Chapter 4: Socio-Economic Effects Taylor Wimpey and NECLC

Economy and employment

4.4.12 The Local Development Plan details that Cardiff currently plays a key role as centre of the city-region, with evidence showing the city is of critical importance to the wider wellbeing of South East Wales. Cardiff has consistently delivered a high proportion of jobs in the city-region.

4.4.13 A Cardiff Employment Land and Premises Study Stage 1: Supply Audit conducted in 2011 as part of the preparation for the Cardiff Local Development Plan (January 2016) identified the employment land and premises supply in Table 4.9.

[Table 4.9: Total Employment Land and Premises Supply]

Industrial (ha) Office (sq m) Existing Available Space 41.7 135,686 (Vacant Premises) Land Supply 75.42 297,836 TOTAL 117.12 433,522 Source: Cardiff Employment Land and Premises Study, 2011

4.4.14 The supply audit acknowledges that a large concentration of the available industrial sites is situated in east Cardiff due to the location of allocated land, environmental and physical constraints elsewhere and the needs of businesses to be located closer to the M4 and wider network strategic road network linking to the M5.

4.4.15 However, the supply audit also acknowledges that an important issue for industrial land identified is the delivery of sites. Whilst sites have been identified that are developable from a planning perspective, flooding issues affects much of the east Cardiff supply.

Employment Profile

4.4.16 Table 4.10 sets out the relationship between market participation and economic activity in Cardiff and the study area. The average working population (16-64 years) in full-time employment in Cardiff is 37.33%, which is marginally higher than the national average of 35.6%.

4.4.17 There were around 214,000 employee jobs located in Cardiff in 2017 of which 147,000 were full-time and 67,000 were part-time. This represents a 68.7% to 31.3% split which is a higher proportion of full-time employees than the national average of 65.3% to

North East Cardiff (West of Pontprennau) Environmental Impact Assessment Outline Planning Application Volume 1: Main Text Chapter 4: Socio-Economic Effects Taylor Wimpey and NECLC

34.7%. This would suggest that the Cardiff economy is stronger than the national average.

[Table 4.10: The relationship between market participation and economic activity in Cardiff and the study area]

Pontprennau/OSM Lisvane Llanishen Cardiff Number % of area Number % of area Number % of area Number % of area populatio population population population n Employee: Full-time 3701 50.83% 922 34.88% 5674 45.38% 97170 37.33%

Employee: Part-time 1017 13.96% 382 14.45% 1844 14.75% 32468 12.47%

Self-employed 624 8.57% 344 13.01% 953 7.62% 18317 7.03%

Unemployed 246 3.37% 51 1.92% 438 3.50% 11566 4.44%

Source: 2011 Census

4.4.18 Table 4.11 sets out the sectors of employment within Cardiff and the study area. This table demonstrates the importance of human health and social work activities; education and wholesale; and retail trade sectors in Cardiff as a whole, compared with the study area.

[Table 4.11: The sectors of employment within Cardiff and the study area]

Pontprennau/OSM Lisvane Llanishen Cardiff Number % of area Number % of area Number % of area Number % of area population population population population

Agriculture, forestry and fishing 17 0.3% 6 0.4% 1 0.0% 132 0.1%

Mining and quarrying 1 0.0% 2 0.1% 3 0.0% 75 0.0% Manufacturing 340 6.1% 77 4.5% 533 6.1% 8,651 5.4%

Electricity, gas, steam and air 97 1.8% 13 0.8% 121 1.4% 1,997 1.3% conditioning supply

North East Cardiff (West of Pontprennau) Environmental Impact Assessment Outline Planning Application Volume 1: Main Text Chapter 4: Socio-Economic Effects Taylor Wimpey and NECLC

Water supply; sewerage, waste 47 0.8% 10 0.6% 47 0.5% 1,122 0.7% management and remediation activities Construction 334 6.0% 118 6.9% 544 6.2% 9,274 5.8% Wholesale and retail trade; repair of 788 14.2% 194 11.4% 1,233 14.0% 23,982 15.0% motor vehicles and motor cycles

Transport and storage 157 2.8% 30 1.8% 225 2.6% 5,419 3.4% Accommodation and food service 272 4.9% 46 2.7% 348 4.0% 11,512 7.2% activities

Information and communication 191 3.5% 71 4.2% 292 3.3% 6,470 4.1% Financial and insurance activities 399 7.2% 103 6% 575 6.5% 8,471 5.3%

Real estate activities 79 1.4% 45 2.6% 121 1.4% 2,301 1.4% Professional, scientific and 341 6.2% 183 10.7% 613 7.0% 10,270 6.4% technical activities

Administrative and 47 support service 217 3.9% 2.8% 326 3.7% 6,766 4.2% activities

Public administration and 442 8.0% 149 8.7% 1,021 11.6% 12,508 7.8% defence Education 653 11.8% 241 14.1% 1,043 11.9% 18,969 11.9%

Human health and social work activities 905 16.4% 293 17.2% 1,369 15.6% 22,816 14.3%

Other 254 4.6% 80 4.7% 364 4.1% 8,879 5.6% Source: 2011 Census

4.4.19 Table 4.12 shows the occupations undertaken by those with jobs in Cardiff and the study area. This table highlights a bias towards skilled and professional occupations, as many residents are employed in jobs requiring higher skill levels. According to the 2011 Census almost half of the residents in Cardiff as a whole (44.9%) are in managerial, professional or technical occupations.

North East Cardiff (West of Pontprennau) Environmental Impact Assessment Outline Planning Application Volume 1: Main Text Chapter 4: Socio-Economic Effects Taylor Wimpey and NECLC

[Table 4.12: Occupations undertaken by those with jobs in Cardiff and the study area] Pontprennau/OSM Lisvane Llanishen Cardiff Number % Number % Number % Number % Managers, directors and senior 648 11.7% 305 17.9% 874 10.0% 14,400 9.0% officials

Professional occupations 1,455 26.3% 602 35.2% 2,183 24.9% 35,984 22.5%

Associate professional and 813 14.7% 231 13.5% 1,256 14.3% 21,457 13.4% technical occupations Administrative and secretarial 725 13.1% 204 11.9% 1,320 15.0% 19,005 11.9% occupations

Skilled trades occupations 419 7.6% 80 4.7% 644 7.3% 12,946 8.1%

Caring, leisure and other service 396 7.2% 100 5.9% 705 8.0% 13,495 8.5% occupations

Sales and customer service 519 9.4% 78 4.6% 836 9.5% 17,334 10.9% occupations

Process plant and machine operatives 226 4.1% 37 2.2% 356 4.1% 7,767 4.9%

Elementary occupations 333 6.0% 71 4.2% 605 6.9% 17,226 10.8%

Source: 2011 Census

Unemployment

4.4.20 The Claimant Count is a measure of the number of people claiming benefits principally for the reason of being unemployed, based on administrative data from the benefits system. As of September 2018, there were a total of 6,425 people claiming benefits in Cardiff which represented 2.6% of the resident population aged between 16-64 years.3

3 Labour Market Profile – Cardiff (November 2018) www.nomisweb.co.uk

North East Cardiff (West of Pontprennau) Environmental Impact Assessment Outline Planning Application Volume 1: Main Text Chapter 4: Socio-Economic Effects Taylor Wimpey and NECLC

4.4.21 Table 4.13 highlights the qualifications achieved by Cardiff residents, the table also breaks down the qualifications achieved by residents of the study area.

[Table 4.13: Qualifications achieved in Cardiff and the study area]

Pontprennau/OS Lisvane Llanishen Cardiff M Numbe % Numbe % Numbe % Numbe % r r r r NVQ Level 4 qualifications and 3,055 40.4 1,597 52.5 5,114 36.5 91,522 32.3 above NVQ Level 3 qualifications and 856 11.3 300 9.9 1,541 11.0 43,037 15.2 above NVQ Level 2 qualifications and 1,180 15.6 476 15.7 2,225 15.9 36,812 13.0 above NVQ Level 1 qualifications and 913 12.1 237 7.8 1,758 12.5 31,039 11.0 above Apprenticeship 262 3.5 70 2.3 477 3.4 7,882 2.8

Other qualifications 293 3.9 76 2.5 511 3.6 14,135 5.0

No qualifications 1,012 13.4 284 9.3 2,388 17.0 58,688 20.7

Source: 2011 Census

4.4.22 The percentage of residents that hold an NVQ Level 4 qualification or above in Cardiff (32.3%) is higher than the national average of 24.5%. The substantially higher percentage of residents with NVQ Level 4 qualifications or above could be explained by the availability of three universities in Cardiff; Cardiff University, Cardiff Metropolitan University and the University of South Wales.

Health

4.4.23 The Study Area is within the administrative area of the Cardiff and Vale University Health Board. The board was established in October 2009 and is one of the largest NHS organisations in the UK. It is responsible for around 482,000 people living in Cardiff and the Vale of Glamorgan (from Trowbridge/St Mellons in the east to Llantwit Major/St Bride’s Major in the west).

4.4.24 The Health Board’s Summary Plan4 has detailed that the population which it serves is growing rapidly in size, projected to increase by 7.5% between 2016-26. This is higher

4 Cardiff and Vale Health Board Health Board Summary Plan 2017-2018

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than the average growth across Wales. An extra 35,000 people will live in Cardiff over the next five years and will require access to health and wellbeing services. In addition, the population is relatively young in Cardiff compared with the rest of Wales; this reflects in part, a significant number of students who study in Cardiff. However, the population is also ageing with increases in all age groups by 2026, and particularly those aged 65-84 and 85+. The rate of this growth in the Vale of Glamorgan being higher than in Cardiff.

4.4.25 The main hospital care for Cardiff is the University Hospital of Wales (UHW). The University Dental Hospital is also located on the same campus. The two hospitals combined offer a wide range of services to Cardiff and beyond including 24-hour accident and emergency treatment, maternity services and cancer treatment. The hospital is located at Heath Park, Cardiff, CF14 4XY (approximately 4 miles south-west of the southern boundary of the Proposed Development). The hospital currently accommodates 1,000 beds.

4.4.26 The waiting times for patients is recorded and published by the health board, this provides a broad indicator as to how well the board is performing. Of those attending Accident and Emergency Services in the Cardiff and Vale region, 90.3% of patients spend less than the target time of 4 hours, and 95.5% of patients spend less than 8 hours in A&E5. This is a better performance than other health boards in Wales, with the exception of Powys Teaching Health Board.

4.4.27 For those served by the Cardiff and Vale Health Board, 83% of patients with urgent suspected cancer referrals started treatment within 62 days in the quarter ending June 2018. This is down from the previous quarter, but consistent with performance at other Welsh Health Boards.

4.4.28 In addition to the UHW, there are a number of smaller hospitals located across the city of Cardiff including: • Cardiff Royal Infirmary; • Lansdowne Unit; • Rookwood Hospital; • St. David's Hospital; • Velindre Cancer Centre; • Barry Community Hospital; and • University Hospital Llandough.

5 Performance against 4 and 8 hour waiting times target by Hospital (September 2018) https://statswales.gov.wales/Catalogue/Health-and-Social-Care/NHS-Hospital-Waiting-Times

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4.4.29 These smaller hospitals don’t offer the same range of services that the University Hospital of Wales does and as such act much more as a local service rather than a regional service.

4.4.30 There are four GP Surgeries located within the study area of Pontprennau, Lisvane and Llanishen, all of which are accepting new patient registration at this time (November 2018).

4.4.31 In addition, there are five Dental Practices within the study area, two of which are currently accepting new NHS patients.

Crime and Safety

4.4.29 Table 4.14 below shows a comparison of crime types in Cardiff between August 2017 and July 2018. Table 4.14 indicates that crime related to anti-social behaviour makes up the biggest proportion of crime types, followed closely by violence and sexual offences. Possession of weapons represented the least frequent type of crime reported at just 0.49%.

4.4.30 The total population estimate for Cardiff in 2017 was 360,7006. Table 4.14 provides an annual summary of crime count and types recorded between 2017 and 2018. Using the data within the table, this equates to approximately 0.14 crimes committed per person.

[Table 4.14: Comparison of crime types in Cardiff between August 2017 and July 2018]

Crime Type Crime Count Percentage Anti-social behaviour 11277 22.65% Bicycle theft 1499 3.01% Burglary 2788 5.60% Criminal damage and arson 4132 8.30% Drugs 1407 2.83% Other crime 675 1.36% Other theft 3698 7.43% Possession of weapons 243 0.49% Public order 3603 7.24% Robbery 256 0.51% Shoplifting 4666 9.37% Theft from the person 608 1.22% Vehicle crime 3837 7.71% Violence and sexual offences 11105 22.30% Source: Police UK

6 Cardiff Population 2018 (Accessed September 2018) http://www.ukpopulation.org/cardiff-population/

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Education

Nursery

4.4.31 There are 337 total childcare providers across Cardiff. This includes 204 Childminders, 50 Day Nurseries, 50 Playgroups, 162 Wraparounds, 217 After school clubs, 187 Breakfast clubs, 170 Holiday clubs (the approach applied in the count means that some of the sub-totals when added up, are more than the total number of providers, as some providers may occur in multiple categories)7. The Assessment identifies that childcare fees in Cardiff range from £3.43 - £5.00 per hour, with an average cost of £4.60 per hour.

4.4.32 Of the 50 Registered Day Nurseries, five are located within Llanishen, and two within Pontprennau & Old St. Mellons. No Registered Day Nurseries are currently located within Lisvane. Refer to Table 4.15 for the nurseries listed by locations within the study area.

[Table 4.15: Nursery Provision in the study area]

Area Registered Day Nurseries Pontprennau & Old St. Mellons Busy Bees Day Nursery and Pre-School, Plantos Nursery. Lisvane None

Llanishen Caerleon Child Care; Daisy Day Nursery; Noahs Ark Nursery; Priory House Acorns Llanishen; and The Lighthouse Nursery.

4.4.33 Flying Start was introduced in 2007 and is regarded by the Welsh Government as one of its flagship programmes. The Welsh Government’s programme for 2016-2021 known as ‘Taking Wales Forward’ commits to the continuation of the Flying Start programme8.

4.4.34 The Welsh Government provide the ‘Flying Start’ programme as part of the tackling poverty agenda, which provides quality childcare which is offered to parents of all eligible 2-3 year olds for 2.5 hours a day, 5 days a week for 39 weeks. In addition, there should be at least 15 sessions of provision for the family during the school holidays. This should be linked to foundation phase entry into schools to ensure a seamless transition between the 2 offers with no gaps in provision.

7 The Childcare Sufficiency Assessment Form: Cardiff (2017) 8 National Assembly for Wales: Children, Young People and Education Committee, Flying Start: Outreach (February 2018)

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4.4.35 All children in Wales are entitled to a minimum of 10 hours of free, part-time Foundation Phase education in a school, or funded nursery, in the term following their third birthday.

4.4.36 The Welsh Government are currently reviewing free childcare and are trialling a scheme in 7 Local Authorities to offer 30 hours a week of free early education and childcare for working parents of 3 and 4-year olds in Wales, for 48 weeks of the year. The current free early education provided by Foundation Phase will form part of this offer. The childcare offer is currently available to eligible parents across the whole of the following local authorities: • Isle of Anglesey County Council; • Gwynedd Council; • Caerphilly County Borough Council; • Blaenau Gwent County Borough Council; • Flintshire County Council; • Rhondda Cynon Taf; • Ceredigion; and • Torfaen.

4.4.37 Implementation in Cardiff will begin in the autumn in the following wards - Grangetown; Butetown; Riverside; Adamsdown; Cathays; Plasnewydd; Caerau; Splott; Ely; Llanrumney followed by roll out across the rest of the city.

Primary School

4.4.38 There are 98 Local Authority primary schools across Cardiff. Six of these are located within the study area. Table 4.16 below provides the locations of these schools.

[Table 4.16: Primary school provision in the study area]

Area Primary School(s) Address Age Range (Years) Pontprennau Pontprennau Heol Pontprennau, Pontprennau, Cardiff, No & Old St. Primary School CF23 8LL information Mellons available Lisvane Llysfaen Primary Rowan Way, Lisvane, Cardiff, 3 - 11 School CF14 0TB Llanishen Christ The King R.C Everest Avenue, Llanishen, Cardiff, CF14 5AS 4 – 11 Primary School;

Ty Glas Avenue, Llanishen, Cardiff, CF14 5DW; 3 – 11

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Coed Glas Primary School; Heol Hir, Thornhill, Cardiff, CF14 9LA 3 – 11 Thornhill Primary School; and Llangranog Road, Llanishen, Cardiff, CF14 5BL 3 – 11. Ysgol Y Wern

Secondary

4.4.39 There are 18 local authority-maintained schools across Cardiff, 2 of which fall within the study area, see Table 4.17 below.

[Table 4.17: Secondary school provision in the study area]

Area Secondary School(s) Address Age Range (Years) Pontprennau & None - - Old St. Mellons

Lisvane Corpus Christi R.C High Ty-Draw Road, Pontprennau, 11 - 16 School. Cardiff, CF23 6XL

Llanishen Llanishen High School Heol Hir, Llanishen, Cardiff, 11 - 18 CF14 5YL

4.4.40 There were 26 fewer Local Authority maintained schools across Wales from 2017 to 2018, however this reduction was predominantly due to school mergers9.

4.4.41 The total number of pupils in educational facilities maintained by Local Authorities in Wales increased by approximately 2,000 from 2014 – 2018, see Table 4.18. This would suggest a strong and increasing demand for state run educational facilities.

9 Welsh Government School Census Results (2018) https://gov.wales/statistics-and-research/schools- census/?lang=en

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[Table 4.18: Pupil numbers in Cardiff as a whole and in Wales]

All pupils Area Nursery Primary Middle Secondary Special Total Cardiff: 291 33,742 N/A 20,166 574 54,723 January 2018 Wales: 815 277,095 12,153 172,218 4,831 467,122 January 2018 Wales: 866 276,940 9,163 174,812 4,727 466,508 January 2017 Wales: 1,019 276,954 5,371 178,669 4,542 466,555 January 2016 Wales: 1,076 273,400 4,376 182,408 4,444 465,704 January 2015 Wales: 1,353 269,421 3,542 186,427 4,338 465,081 January 2014 Source: Welsh Government School Census Results 201810

Higher Education

4.4.42 There are 3 Universities located within Cardiff: Cardiff University, Cardiff Metropolitan University and the University of South Wales.

4.4.43 According to the Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA) each of the three universities in Cardiff had the following number of undergraduate students in 2017:

• Cardiff University = 21,890 students; • Cardiff Metropolitan University = 8,230 students; and • University of South Wales = 17,170 students.

4.4.44 The Complete University Guide rank 131 UK universities and 70 subjects by quality measures important to students. The scores and rankings that the three Cardiff universities achieved according to The Complete University Guide League Table 2019 are outlined in Table 4:19.

4.4.45 The overall rank is marked out of 131 entries; the entry standard is the average UCAS tariff score of new undergraduate students; research quality is scored out of 4, with 1 being the worst and 4 being the best; graduate prospects are scored out of 100, with 1

10 https://gov.wales/docs/statistics/2018/180725-school-census-results-2018-en.pdf

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being the worst and 100 being the best and the overall score is marked out of 1000 with 1 being the worst and 1000 being the best.

4.4.46 Table 4.19 demonstrates that there is a range of university provision across Cardiff as a whole in terms of quality and entry standards.

[Table 4.19: Universities located within Cardiff and their respective rankings]

University Overall Entry Student Research Graduate Overall Rank Standards Satisfaction Quality Prospects Score Cardiff University 33 154 3.99 3.27 79.2 723

Cardiff Metropolitan 77 126 4.07 3.00 62.9 569 University University of South 107 129 3.97 2.51 62.1 484 Wales Source: The Complete University Guide

The Welsh Index of Multiple Deprivation

4.4.47 The Welsh Index of Multiple Deprivation (WIMD) is the Welsh Government’s official measure of relative deprivation for small areas in Wales. It is designed to identify those small areas where there are the highest concentrations of several different types of deprivation. Deprivation is the lack of access to opportunities and resources which we might expect in our society. This can be in terms of material goods or the ability of an individual to participate in the normal social life of the community.

4.4.48 WIMD is currently made up of eight separate domains (or types) of deprivation. Each domain is compiled from a range of different indicators, including:

• Income; • Employment; • Health; • Education; • Access to Services; • Community Safety; • Physical Environment; and • Housing.

4.4.49 Table 4.20 includes the measure of WIMD for the Lower Layer Super Output Areas (LSOAs) that make up the study area. The lower the score, the more deprived the area is according to the WIMD.

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Area Overall Income Employment Health Education Access to Community Physical Housing WIMD services Safety Env.

Pontprennau/ 1,111 915 959 1,080 936 1,670 440 613 1,730 OSM 1

Pontprennau/ 1,742 1,414 1,474 1,867 1,459 1,522 1,649 1,285 1,371 OSM 2

Pontprennau/ 1,809 1,553 1,832 1,852 1,643 1,638 1,037 891 1,552 OSM 3

Pontprennau/ 1,802 1,701 1,848 1,880 1,531 1,443 1,132 670 1,631 OSM 4

Pontprennau/ 1,540 1,245 1,471 1,622 1,142 1,294 1,147 809 993 OSM 5

Lisvane 1,874 1,854 1,824 1,893 1,859 897 1,580 1,595 1,843 1

Lisvane 1,886 1,896 1,895 1,908 1,905 883 1,892 1,443 1,880 2 Llanishen 1,619 1,255 1,237 1,797 1,551 1,685 813 1,287 1,069 1

Llanishen 503 451 534 401 507 1,235 729 785 347 2

Llanishen 1,858 1,612 1,689 1,897 1,698 1,435 1,877 1,310 1,861 3

Llanishen 1,863 1,618 1,760 1,860 1,785 1,525 1,621 1,197 1,747 4

Llanishen 1,906 1,801 1,865 1,901 1,851 1,581 1,658 1,374 1,752 5

Llanishen 1,726 1,338 1,371 1,776 1,562 1,818 1,463 1,146 1,562 6

Llanishen 1,738 1,388 1,514 1,602 1,559 1,812 1,535 1,081 1,452 7

Llanishen 1,833 1,677 1,605 1,689 1,796 1,549 1,901 1,024 1,543 8

Llanishen 1,830 1,806 1,618 1,334 1,894 1,396 1,625 1,405 1,744 9

Llanishen 599 476 678 552 474 1,774 903 1,076 151 10

Llanishen 1,642 1,116 1,570 1,135 1,636 1,738 1,891 969 1,424 11

Llanishen 1,212 987 1,255 885 1,067 1,587 949 1,003 536 12

[Table 4.20: The WIMD rankings of the LSOA’s that make up the study area] Source: Welsh Government

4.4.50 Table 4.20 above therefore suggests that north-east Cardiff and the study area is a relatively affluent area, with some of the LSOAs scoring in the top 10% of the least deprived across the UK.

Libraries

4.4.51 There are 20 public libraries across Cardiff. In the study area, only the ward of Llanishen has access to a library, part of the Llanishen hub. This is located approximately 1.7 miles from the centre of the Proposed Development.

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4.4.52 Llanishen hub is located within the ward of Llanishen and in addition to the provision of books the library has free internet and Wi-Fi access; ‘Into Work’ advice and training courses; housing, benefit and advice services; rooms for community meetings and events; and a dementia-friendly hub.

Parks and Open Space

4.4.53 The Green Infrastructure SPG for Cardiff Council was approved on the 30th November 2017. At present, only the draft version of the SPG (November 2017) is available publicly online. Therefore, this section has considered the draft available. This document sets out Cardiff Council’s approach to the consideration of green infrastructure in relation to new developments. It provides further guidance to Policy KP16: Green Infrastructure set out in the Cardiff Local Development Plan 2006-2026.

4.4.54 Policy C5 of the Cardiff Local Development Plan (January 2016) stipulates that provision for open space, outdoor recreation, children’s play and sport will be sought in conjunction with all new residential developments. Policy C5 is aimed at securing the provision or improvement of open space and other appropriate outdoor recreation and sport in conjunction with all new residential developments over 8 units and on-site provision of functional open space in conjunction with all new residential developments over 14 units. The appropriate amount of multi-functional green space is based on a minimum of 2.43 hectares of functional open space per 1,000 projected population. Policy C5 also stipulates that all other open space provision will be in addition to the provision of multi- functional green space.

4.4.55 Within the Green Infrastructure SPG a full assessment of all open space in Cardiff was undertaken which summarises the total quantities of different types of open space across the city based on the Welsh Government Technical Advice Notes (TAN) 16 typology and also shows how these quantities relate to the other definitions used within the Open Space Study. The quantum of open space in Cardiff is tabulated according to TAN 16 categories in Table 4.21.

4.4.56 The TAN 16 Typology definition includes the following types of open space:

1. Parks & Gardens; 2. Green Corridors; 3. Outdoor sports facilities; 4. Provision for children and young people; 5. Amenity green space; 6. Allotments and community growing areas;

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7. Natural and semi-natural green space; 8. Water; 9. Cemeteries and churchyards; 10. Accessible countryside; 11. Civic space; and 12. Educational open space.

[Table 4.21: The total quantities of different types of open space across Cardiff based on the TAN 16 typology]

Category of open space Total Area (ha) (2017 assessment) TAN 16 Typology definition 3,774.27 (Primary category)

Multi-functional green space 4,027.06 (Functional / visual)

Planning categories (Definitions used in open space study calculations) 4,027.06

Accessible natural green space (Does not relate to other categories) 2,957.49

Source: Cardiff City Council

Sports facilities

Gyms

4.4.57 There are numerous gym facilities in Cardiff. These are located across the city, from city centre locations to the edge of the city. Gyms in Cardiff include the following:

• David Lloyd Cardiff; • The Gym, Cardiff; • Riverside Leisure; • UFIT Fitness; • InBalance Wellness; • The Fitness Factory Cardiff; • Agility; • Fit4less Cardiff; • DW Sports Fitness Cardiff; • Haya Fitness;

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• Pontcanna Lifestyle; • Maindy Leisure Centre; • JD Gyms Cardiff; • Pure Gym Cardiff Gate; • EasyGym Cardiff; • Ultimate Fitness Centre; • Dave’s Gym; • Curv-i-Cure; • Elympia Fitness; • Village Gym Cardiff; and • DW Sports Fitness – Cardiff North.

Cardiff Sports Clubs

4.4.58 In addition to formal gym spaces, there are numerous existing sports clubs across Cardiff. There are also many more sports clubs associated with the universities located within Cardiff. The public sports clubs however, comprise the following:

• Cardiff CELTS Women’s Basketball Club; • Cardiff Hockey Club; • Whitchurch Saints Ladies Hockey Club; • Cardiff City Ladies Football Club; • Women’s Five-a-side; • Cardiff Amateur Athletics Club; • Cardiff Harlequins Lacrosse Club; • Cardiff Netball Clubs (Various); • Cardiff Ajax Cycling Club; • Cardiff Badminton Club; • Cardiff Golf Club; • Llandaff Rowing Club; • Cardiff Ski Club; • Cardiff Squash and Racquets Club; • Cardiff Lawn Tennis Club; • Cardiff Harlequins Women’s Rugby Club; • Cardiff National Ice Skating Club; • Cardiff Ladies Volleyball Club; • Cardiff Canoe Club; • Cardiff Handball Club; • Cardiff Triathletes; and

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• Cardiff Parkrun.

3G Football Pitches

4.4.59 The existing 3G football provision in Cardiff includes:

• Cardiff International 3G football pitch; • Cardiff University Sports Training Village; • Heath Park 3G Football Pitch; and • Powerleague Cardiff, Manor Way.

National and International Sports Facilities

4.4.60 Cardiff hosts a number of national and international level sports teams and facilities including:

• Cardiff City Football Club; • Sport Wales National Centre; • National Cricket Centre; • Principality Stadium; • Cardiff Blues; • Cardiff International Pool; and • National Indoor Athletics Centre.

4.4.61 In short, Cardiff hosts a wide variety of sports provision at all levels across a wide variety of sports.

The Study Area

4.4.62 Focusing more closely on the study area, the existing sports provision includes:

• Lisvane Tennis Club; • Llanishen Golf Club; • Gleider Field Skate Park; • Ramp World Cardiff; • Go Air Trampoline Park; • Llanishen Leisure Centre; • Lisvane Cricket Club; • Cardiff Golf Centre; and • Pure Gym Cardiff Gate.

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The Projected Future Baseline

4.4.63 This section outlines likely future baseline conditions. Only receptors where there is likely to be a notable change are detailed. There are unlikely to be any significant changes in baseline conditions if the Proposed Development does not proceed.

Population

4.4.64 The Local Authority Population Projections for Wales (2014-based), published on 29th September 2016, projects that Cardiff’s population will increase from 354,300 in 2014 to 444,700 in 2039 which represents an increase of approximately 26%. Based on the age profile of Cardiff presented in Table 4.1 and The Local Authority Population Projections for Wales it is projected that in 2039 the number of 65-year olds and over in Cardiff could be 56,343 persons. Applying the same approach, it is projected that in 2039 the working age population (16-64 years) of Cardiff could be 292,701 persons.

4.4.65 The population projections are trend-based projections, which means assumptions for future levels of births, deaths and migration are based on observed levels over the previous five years. They show what the population will be if recent trends in these continue. Since these assumptions are based solely on recent demographic trends, the projections would not reflect the impact of urban extensions such as the proposed Development in North-East Cardiff.

Housing

4.4.66 Cardiff Council’s LDP targets the delivery of 41,415 dwellings over the period of 2006 – 2026, which equates to 1,883 dwellings per annum. The Cardiff Population and Housing Forecasts predict that population growth in Cardiff will increase demands from all household types.

4.4.67 Applying the target of 1,883 dwellings per annum to the total number of dwellings in Cardiff according to the 2011 Census (148,093 total dwellings) projects that by 2026 there will be a total of 174,455 dwellings in Cardiff.

Education

Nursery

4.4.68 The latest pupil projections predict that nationally nursery pupils aged 5 or under are projected to slightly increase from 55,000 to 56,100 between 2018 and 2034.

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Primary

4.4.69 The latest pupil projections predict that nationally primary school pupils aged 5 or above in Wales are projected to decrease from 211,600 in 2018 to 209,000 in 2034.

Secondary

4.4.70 In comparison, secondary school pupils across Wales are projected to increase from 157,300 to 169,000 in 2034.

6th Form

4.4.71 6th Form pupils nationally are projected to gradually increase 23,100 to 24,900 by 2034.

Sensitivity of Receptors

4.4.72 Analysis of both current and projected future baseline conditions has been used to assess the sensitivity of receptors. The receptors that have been assessed include Population, Housing, Economy, Retail, Education, Libraries, Crime and Safety, Health and Open Space which are summarised in Table 4.22.

4.4.73 The Proposed Development will affect the Site and its surroundings to varying degrees, depending on the sensitivity of the receptor. The sensitivity of local receptors to the effects of the Proposed Development is classified as high, medium, low or negligible as set out earlier.

4.4.74 Using an example is an appropriate way to demonstrate the relative sensitivities of different socio-economic receptors. The Proposed Development will create a range of employment opportunities. Those opportunities associated with the construction stage will be temporary and therefore considered low in sensitivity; however, some employment will also be required to serve some of the elements of the Proposed Development, such as the local centres. Those jobs will be permanent and will deliver a lasting impact on socio-economic conditions and should therefore be considered as being of high sensitivity.

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[Table 4.22: Sensitivity of Receptors]

Receptor Summary of Analysis Sensitivity

Population Expected to experience an ageing trend, albeit to a High lesser extent than other areas due to a younger population

Housing Considerable housing affordability issues, with High substantial future need identified

Economy Cardiff Council targeting to provide 40,000 jobs in the High plan period and the proposed development will deliver much needed local jobs

Retail Retail sector sensitive to rapidly changing market High demands and preferences. Internet shopping projected to greatly influence retail demands

Education Pupil projections predicted to only slightly increase Medium over the next 16 years

Libraries No information on projected library users but Negligible projected population likely to create increased demand

Crime and Safety Crime rates are unlikely to be influenced by an urban Low extension. Principles for designing out crime will be incorporated to create safe new neighbourhoods

Health Increase in population will increase demand on local Medium GPs and hospitals

Open Space At the city-wide level there is a wide variety and large Medium quantity of open space with some notable large open space provision such as Bute Park and a wide variety of formal sports facilities

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4.5 POTENTIAL EFFECTS

Construction stage

4.5.1 As noted in Chapter 2 of this ES, it is expected that the Proposed Development will be developed over a period of approximately 15 years.

4.5.2 The Proposed Development will be completed in various stages during which there will be a significant generation of construction related employment. However, the phased development will result in potential effects being spread over time and across the Site as not all areas will be affected at the same time and to the same extent. It is assumed that social infrastructure will be delivered in parallel with the residential element of the Proposed Development, secured by a Section 106 legal agreement attached to any planning permission.

4.5.3 It is anticipated that a Construction Environmental Management Plan (CEMP) will be prepared to support each phase to manage and control the impacts and methods of construction.

4.5.4 Significant effects on population, housing, education, health and other community facilities are not expected during the demolition and construction stage.

4.5.5 Agricultural use of the site would cease upon implementation of the proposed development. The primary socio-economic effect of the construction phase will have on the local area will be that of job creation. Construction work on the development will create a wide range of professional, technical, skilled and manual jobs during this period. As a result, the local economy will benefit directly. There would also be indirect effects through the supply of materials from local businesses and the expenditure of salaries in the wider locality. It is considered likely that most of these companies would be located within Cardiff and the surrounding areas. Indeed, most construction workers are likely to be employed from the local labour market which would promote beneficial effects within this area. This increase in spending and job creation would also be experienced by those companies who are indirectly benefiting from the construction of the Proposed Development, such as building suppliers/ merchants.

4.5.6 Taking into account job creation and expenditure would be temporary, of local to regional scale and will have a Moderate Beneficial impact.

Post-completion stage

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Effects on Population

4.5.7 The Proposed Development will bring up to 2,500 new dwellings to the area. Assuming the average household size of 2.3411, the Proposed Development could accommodate a future population of approximately 5,850. This would represent approximately a 1.7% addition to the total population of Cardiff.

4.5.8 The additional population figure as referred to above is based on the assumption that all of the new households would come from outside the City. In reality, some of the new homes are likely to be occupied by existing local residents buying first homes, residents trading up or downsizing, or people on waiting lists for affordable housing. Such relocation of existing residents would free up existing dwellings for occupation by other new residents, adding to the total population.

4.5.9 When considered over the 15-year assumed development timescale, these increases are of a significant scale. In addition, the income and spend of the new residents in the local economy will increase local GVA which will have positive indirect effects upon the economy of Cardiff. The impacts on existing businesses, in particular within the town centre, will be beneficial as although the Proposed Development contains retail uses, these are of a different scale to the town centre which would retain the market for larger retail and nightlife provision. New residents will also help to sustain the retail and business elements proposed at the District Centre which forms part of the Proposed Development.

4.5.10 It is clear that the magnitude of the impact will reflect the geographic area affected, for example the scale of the impact is assumed to have a lesser effect on the population at the “City-wide” level compared with the existing population of Lisvane, Pontprennau and Llanishen.

4.5.11 On this basis, the effect of the population increase is considered to be permanent, of local to regional scale and of Major Beneficial significance, provided the necessary social infrastructure such as education, health, community facilities and open space is delivered insofar as this is necessary and in a timely manner.

Effects on the Housing Market

4.5.12 The 2,500 homes built as part of the Proposed Development will help Cardiff Council to meet the current Local Plan target of delivering 41,415 dwellings over the Plan period

11 2011 Census

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(2006–2026, inclusive). The Project will make a significant contribution towards the future housing supply of Cardiff comprising of approximately 6% of Cardiff’s housing need over the Plan period.

4.5.13 The Project will include a wide range of house types that will allow for a varied choice of homes and a broad demographic. This will represent a major benefit of the project. House types will be based upon a range of sized properties (likely to be 1 – 5 bedroom) and will include a mix of terrace, semi-detached and detached houses with private garden space and parking. Houses will principally be two-storeys in height, with detailed matters on house types and tenure to be agreed at the Reserved Matters stage.

4.5.14 A proportion of the housing within the Project will be identified as affordable housing and will comprise a mix of tenures and unit sizes. The affordable housing mix will have regard to national and local guidance and evidence of housing need and viability.

4.5.15 The overall scale of provision will be determined having regard to:

• The policies of the Cardiff Local Development Plan (January 2016); • The particular development costs of the Project; • The priority afforded to the achievement of other planning objectives; and • The ability to secure funding to support provision if appropriate.

4.5.9 Overall, the Project will take account of relevant policy objectives and promote growth to help meet the housing needs of Cardiff and will support the objectives set out in the Cardiff Local Development Plan (January 2016). This will be permanent and of local to regional scale, therefore of Major Beneficial significance for the local area and the city of Cardiff.

Effects on the Economy and Employment

4.5.10 The Site is currently undeveloped and therefore offers few existing jobs; any employment that does exist is in agriculture and farming.

4.5.11 The Proposed Development includes a District Centre and a second area of mixed use development, both of which are envisaged to accommodate elements of retail and employment and could accommodate community uses, which will create a large number of jobs. Additional jobs will also be created by the proposed primary school and the secondary school.

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4.5.12 The Proposed Development would deliver up to 28,500sqm of B1 employment generating floorspace; up to 4,000sqm of A1-A3 floorspace; up to 2,000sqm of leisure space and up to 1,000sqm of professional services, food and drink space. In addition, the Proposed Development would deliver up to 2,000sqm of community space along with the education provision proposed to be provided on site.

4.5.13 There will be a small loss of existing jobs resulting from the cessation of the agricultural tenancies on the Site. However, the scale of this loss is not significant in overall socio- economic terms. In addition, jobs will be created in the management of the open spaces, and in other services that have not been reflected in the estimates above. Indirect jobs will be supported by the increased expenditure on goods, supplies and services provided by companies in the surrounding area and will support induced employment in local shops, services and other firms.

4.5.14 One method for calculating post-completion job creation has been undertaken to provide a guide figure of the jobs that will be created as part of the Proposed Development. This method therefore focuses on employment land created in the District and Local centres and the employment-led mixed-use area. The Homes and Communities Agency’s Employment Densities Guide (Published 2015) has been used for the purposes of this assessment. The HCA, now known as Homes England strictly operate within England, however for the purposes of this socio-economic assessment, the method adopted within this guide is considered to be compatible with employment uses in Wales. The HCA guide uses a net internal area (NIA) to represent the ‘usable’ area of offices and retail units and this is cross referenced with densities for each Use Class within an employment density matrix.

4.5.15 The Proposed Development includes a mixed-use District Centre and additional Local Centre opportunities, where retail and service provision are to be located. These would be flexible spaces capable of providing retail, commercial and business units alongside health, leisure and community facilities. The Proposed Development is expected to accommodate in the region of 845 jobs.

4.5.16 The scale of income and supply linkage multiplier effects vary according to the mix of economic activity that exists in an area and the type of intervention that is being undertaken. The Scottish Government provides information on multiplier effects for individual Scottish industries, with industrial uses having a higher multiplier effect than other service industries12. It is considered that applying a conservative multiplier of 1.2 for additional indirect jobs associated with supply chain linkages and resulting from

12 Homes and Communities Agency Additionality Guide (Fourth Edition, 2014)

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additional expenditure is appropriate for the employment sectors as part of the Proposed Development. The figure then increases to 1014 jobs as demonstrated in Table 4.23.

Table 4.23: Expected job creation at local and district centres Inputs

Size of local and district centres combined = indicative at this stage

Assumed 2 x floors for commercial use; GEA = 37,500sqm (with potential for residential above)

Assumed that ‘A1 – A3 uses’ will utilise the ground floor = 5,000sqm, whilst B1 use will utilise 28,500sqm, and other non-residential uses 4,000sqm.

Source: HCA Employment Densities Guide, 3rd Edition, 2015

Local Centre Uses GEA GEA to NIA HCA Jobs (sqm) NIA (sqm) Employment density (sqm per FTE) A1-A3 uses 5000 x 0.8 4,000 17 235 B1 use 28,500 x 0.8 22,800 40 570 Other non-residential 4,000 x 0.8 3,200 80 40 uses

Total 37,500 845 1.2 multiplier for 1014 additional indirect jobs

4.5.17 In addition, jobs will be created as part of the primary and secondary educational facilities and for the management of the open spaces and other services that have not been reflected in the calculations above. These estimates also do not include employment based at home or in any live/work accommodation.

4.5.18 In total, it is anticipated that the Proposed Development will provide in the region of 1014 (direct and indirect) jobs. The magnitude of this impact is deemed to be small in comparison to overarching job targets regarding its contribution to Cardiff Council’s target of delivering 40,000 jobs within the plan period, 2006 to 2026. These new jobs will offer employment opportunities for a wide range of skill levels, including management, professional health and education staff, clerical/administrative and sales staff, as well as skilled and semi-skilled jobs. The proposals will create a mix of full-time, permanent jobs as well as flexible part-time opportunities on site.

4.5.19 Overall the Proposed Development is anticipated to result in a permanent and local to regional Moderate Beneficial impact on employment provision for the study area, wider locality and Cardiff as a whole.

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Effects on Retail

4.5.20 The study area is located north-east of Cardiff city centre, which will provide the principal high order services and facilities for the Project’s population. This will have a substantial effect on the city by supporting the existing retail offer, albeit providing a different offer to the city centre. This in line with the policies set out in the Cardiff LDP which seeks to protect the vitality of the city centre.

4.5.21 The Development proposes up to 4,000sqm of A1 retail within the District Centre forming part of the Proposed Development. As such, care has been taken to ensure a supportive and complementary role to Cardiff city centre, whilst ensuring both an attractive development and seeking to reduce reliance on the private car. This approach is in accordance with the guidance set outlined in local planning policies.

4.5.22 The Site’s scale and close proximity to the city centre will have permanent benefits for the local area through the provision of easily accessible facilities. The Project will have a Moderate Beneficial effect on the city by supporting the existing retail offer and offering services, facilities and retail on the outer edges of Cardiff. It will also support employment growth and sustainable travel given its proximity to the main employment areas of the city.

Effects on Education Provision

4.5.23 The impact of the Proposed Development on education provision in the local area will depend on the number of additional children of school age generated by the 2,500 new dwellings, the availability of spare school places in the area and general trends in schoolchildren numbers in the area over the period of housing delivery. The existing school provision cannot meet the school place demand that would be generated by the Proposed Development, especially taking into account the school place needs resulting from the wider allocation of Strategic Site F which is required by Policy KP2(F) to include primary and secondary provision.

4.5.24 The Cardiff Planning Obligations SPG (January 2017) set out in Table 4.24 below outlines the following pupil yields generated by a residential development:

[Table 4.24: Project pupil yields generated by a residential development]

Education House Yields Phase 1 bed 2 bed 3 bed 4 bed 5+ bed Nursery 0.0210 0.0507 0.0579 0.0610 0.0555

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Primary 0.0501 0.1247 0.2290 0.2947 0.3059 Secondary 0.0336 0.0604 0.1666 0.2553 0.2806 6th Form 0.0092 0.0165 0.0513 0.0864 0.1049

Education Flat Yields Phase 1 bed 2 bed 3 bed 4 bed 5+ bed Nursery 0.0102 0.0390 0.0567 0.0470 0.0102 Primary 0.0155 0.0749 0.1793 0.2329 0.0649 Secondary 0.0058 0.0287 0.1125 0.1179 0.0373 6th Form 0.0007 0.0079 0.0345 0.0280 0.0116 Special Education Need pupil requiring facility – primary: 1.62% (of total aggregate pupil yield) Special Education Need pupil requiring facility – secondary/6th form: 2.48% (of total aggregate pupil yield) Source: Cardiff City Council Planning Obligations SPG (January 2017)

4.5.25 For the purpose of this Environmental Statement it was decided to base the pupil yield calculations exclusively on house yields which make provision for a higher number of school children. As such, it is believed the potential educational effect set out below is considered to be the maximum effect or in other words the “worst case”.

4.5.26 If assumed that the proposed 2,500 dwellings will comprise of 125 x 1-bed dwellings; 750 x 2-bed dwellings; 750 x 3-bed dwellings; 750 x 4-bed dwellings; and 125 x 5+ bed dwellings. The following potential effect on educational is predicted as outlined below.

Nursery

4.5.27 Table 4.25, shows the projected number of nursery pupils that could be generated as a result of the proposed development based on the guidelines set out in the Cardiff Planning Obligations SPG (January 2017).

[Table 4.25: Projected nursery pupils generated by the proposed development]

Number of Type of dwelling Pupil yield Number of dwellings multiplier potential pupils 125 1-bed dwelling X 0.0210 2.625 750 2-bed dwelling X 0.0507 38.025 750 3-bed dwelling X 0.0579 43.425 750 4-bed dwelling X 0.0610 45.75 125 5+ bed dwelling X 0.0555 6.9375

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= 139.7625 Total = Approximately 140 Nursery School Pupils

Primary Schools

4.5.28 Table 4.26, shows the projected number of primary pupils that could be generated as a result of the proposed development based on the guidelines set out in the Cardiff Planning Obligations SPG (January 2017).

[Table 4.26: Projected primary pupils generated by the proposed development]

Number of Type of dwelling Pupil yield Number of dwellings multiplier potential pupils 125 1-bed dwelling X 0.0501 6.2625 750 2-bed dwelling X 0.1247 93.525 750 3-bed dwelling X 0.2290 171.75 750 4-bed dwelling X 0.2947 221.025 125 5+ bed dwelling X 0.3059 38.2375 = 530.8 Total = Approximately 531 Primary School Pupils

Secondary Schools

4.5.29 Table 4.27, shows the projected number of secondary pupils that could be generated as a result of the proposed development based on the guidelines set out in the Cardiff Planning Obligations SPG (January 2017).

[Table 4.27: Projected secondary pupils generated by the Proposed Development]

Number of Type of dwelling Pupil yield Number of dwellings multiplier potential pupils 125 1-bed dwelling X 0.0336 4.2 750 2-bed dwelling X 0.0604 45.3 750 3-bed dwelling X 0.1666 124.95 750 4-bed dwelling X 0.2553 191.475 125 5+ bed dwelling X 0.2806 35.075 Total = Approximately 401 Secondary School Pupils

6th Form

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4.5.30 Table 4.28, shows the projected number of sixth form pupils that could be generated as a result of the proposed development based on the guidelines set out in the Cardiff Planning Obligations SPG (January 2017).

[Table 4.28: Projected 6th Form pupils generated by the Proposed Development]

Number of Type of dwelling Pupil yield Number of dwellings multiplier potential pupils 125 1-bed dwelling X 0.0092 1.15 750 2-bed dwelling X 0.0165 12.375 750 3-bed dwelling X 0.0513 38.475 750 4-bed dwelling X 0.0864 64.8 125 5+ bed dwelling X 0.1049 13.1125 = 129.9125 Total = Approximately 130 6th Form Students

4.5.31 Once complete, the Proposed Development will provide a range of school provision with sufficient capacity to accommodate the Proposed Development and demand generated by the wider allocation and surrounding areas. Table 4.29 demonstrates the approximate number of pupil spaces to be provided as part of the Proposed Development.

[Table 4.29: Proposed school provision to be provided as part of the Proposed Development]

Level of Education Proposed Form of Entry No. of pupil spaces Provision (F.E.) provision on site (Approximate)/ Comments Primary 2 F.E. 420 pupils Secondary 10 F.E. 1,500 pupils 6th Form No set F.E. 6th Form provision will start off small and grow to match demand.

4.5.32 Table 4.28 clearly demonstrates that the Proposed Development will meet its own demand with regard to pupil places at all education levels. Once complete, the school

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provision will also provide additional capacity to act as a buffer to safeguard against unexpected demand and provide capacity to the wider area.

4.5.33 In addition, it should be noted that some of the new residents will relocate to the Proposed Development from other localities and their children might continue to attend their existing schools. However, others might consider relocating to the new schools, thereby freeing up spaces in existing schools as an indirect effect. Another indirect effect of the new schools will be the creation of jobs for teachers and support staff, and the additional spend on books, stationery and school uniforms.

4.5.34 Additional school provision will be required to accommodate the additional children generated by the development.

4.5.35 The Proposed Development therefore includes provision for a primary school of approximately 2 hectares, sufficient to accommodate a two-form entry school. The adjacent site at Churchlands is also providing a 2FE primary school.

4.5.36 The Proposed Development also provides land for a secondary school of approximately 8 hectares).

4.5.37 A key issue when assessing the effects of the Proposed Development upon education provision is the timing of provision. The timing of provision will be determined in the light of the capacity of the existing schools and the available options for delivering additional capacity as part of the development. Any short term increased pressure on existing schools is not expected to be significant.

4.5.38 To conclude, the Proposed Development will benefit the local community on a permanent, local and regional basis thereby having a Major Beneficial effect on education provision for the city of Cardiff.

Effects on Library Services

4.5.39 Baseline information has been collected on the library provision across Cardiff and the immediate surrounding area. There are numerous library facilities across Cardiff that offer a variety of services. There are three libraries within a 2-mile radius of the centre of the site. The increase in population, including significant young people and families will inevitably increase the uptake of these services which could otherwise be

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underutilised and become redundant and lose funding. Library facilities are anticipated to be provided within the proposed District Centre.

4.5.40 The development is anticipated to result in a Moderate Beneficial impact on library provision on the local area by supporting the vitality of these existing services.

Effects on Crime and Safety

4.5.41 By introducing a wide range of new uses, the Site will be used more intensively both during the day and at night. This will increase indirect surveillance which will help reduce existing and perceived levels of crime. As part of the detailed design it is envisaged that the Proposed Development will make use of well-designed security features, including active, mixed frontages and lighting strategies through subsequent Reserved Matters approvals.

4.5.42 During the construction of the Proposed Development there might be the need for security fencing or other measures to provide the required safety while the development is not yet advanced enough to provide a sufficient level of indirect surveillance.

4.5.43 In terms of crime and public safety, the Proposed Development would have beneficial effects upon the surrounding areas as the level of activity will be increased significantly and with it indirect surveillance and perceived safety. This could indirectly affect both the local housing market and the local economy by attracting new interest and investment.

4.5.44 It is considered that due to the positive effect the Proposed Development would have on the existing surroundings, its effects on safety would be permanent, local to the Site and of Negligible to Minor Beneficial significance, both for the Site and its surroundings.

Effects on Health Facilities

4.5.45 The development provides opportunities to support health and social care, as part of the delivery of a healthy and inclusive community where its residents can enjoy a healthy, happy and active lifestyle.

GP and Dentist Provision

4.5.46 Baseline information has been collected on the number of local surgeries, hospitals and other local community facilities across Cardiff and the immediate surrounding area. There are numerous GP surgeries across Cardiff. There are 6 NHS GP surgeries within a 2-mile radius of the centre of the Proposed Development and 4 GP surgeries within

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the study area. These are accepting new patients according to their respective NHS listings which would suggest that there is capacity to meet the needs of a growing population.

4.5.47 There are 2 NHS dentists within the study area which are accepting new patients, but this would be unlikely to meet the demand that the Proposed Development will generate, once complete. However, it is proposed that up to 2,000sqm of community space will include medical and health provision (Use Class D1) provided within the proposed District Centre. The demand for GP and dentist services arising from the Proposed Development can be met by these planned new facilities. . 4.5.48 It is anticipated that the development will have a permanent and local effect on GP and dentist provision. This would result in a Moderate Beneficial impact on such healthcare provision.

Effects on Open Space Provision

4.5.49 The Cardiff LDP requires Residential developments to make provision for 2.43 hectares of functional open space per 1000 projected population. Table 4.30 outlines what is considered as functional open space as per the Cardiff Planning Obligations SPG.

[Table 4.30: Functional open space definition]

Open Space Function Definition

Equipped and Natural Areas specifically designed for children’s play with Children’s Play Areas fixed play activities such as swings, slides or multi- units and / or more natural play environments. Teen Equipment Areas designed for teen use including Multiuse Games Areas (MUGAs), skate parks, outdoor fitness equipment and shelters. Informal Functional Open Areas providing space for informal recreational uses Space e.g. walking, jogging, cycling, informal ball games, and general leisure. This includes green corridors that can be used for active recreation due to presence of a permanent hard surfaced footpath. Formal Functional Open Areas of level and well drained land of sufficient size Space able to be used for formal recreation purposes such as football and cricket pitches. Also includes artificial turf and 3G pitches, greens, courts and athletic tracks,

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including dedicated ancillary facilities such as floodlighting, changing rooms and associated parking. (Excludes golf courses, indoor sports and leisure centres). Source: Cardiff Planning Obligations SPG

4.5.50 As a result, taking into account Cardiff City Council recommended provision, the Proposed Development should provide functional open space comprising of a mix of open space functions as detailed in the above Table.

4.5.51 Cardiff Council’s Open Space SPG (March 2008) identifies an average occupancy figure of 2.41 persons per residential unit for identifying open space requirements arising from development, whereas the Planning Obligations SPG (January 2017) suggests a lower average occupancy rate. Using the higher occupancy rate figure (thereby generating a larger population and yielding a greater open space requirement) the number of residents generated by the proposals of up to 2,500 homes is some 6,025 people. The open space requirements that would arise in this scenario are identified in Table 4.31 below as follows:

[Table 4.31 Open space requirements]

Category of Open Space Cardiff City Council Open space Open Space SPG requirements based on 2,500 homes Open Space (overall 2.43 ha per 1,000 14.64 ha resource) projected population Equipped Children’s play 0.30 ha per 1,000 1.81 ha Areas projected population Informal Recreational 0.50 ha per 1,000 3.01 ha Open Space projected population Formal Recreational open 1.63ha per 1,000 projected 9.82 space population

4.5.52 Notwithstanding the Council’s open space guidance, the specific open space requirements for the strategic allocation for NE Cardiff are set out in Policy KP2 (F), This requires a minimum of 26 ha of open space to include some 13 ha of formal recreation, 6 playgrounds a teen facility and 2 x 50 plot allotment sites. A proportionate approach to the delivery of and contributions towards site-wide provision will also be a relevant as part of the consideration of open space resource.

4.5.53 The application proposals provide some 51 ha of open space resource which includes woodland resource, attention ponds, areas for formal play, and allotments as identified

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by the site-specific policy. The amount of open space will provide additional multi- functional resource for existing residents as well as for the recreational and open space needs arising from the new community.

4.5.54 Therefore, the magnitude of this impact is deemed to be permanent and local in nature, thereby causing a Moderate Beneficial impact.

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4.6 MITIGATION MEASURES

4.6.1 As shown in the previous section, the socio-economic effects of the Proposed Development will be either beneficial or negligible, both during the demolition and construction phase, as well as after completion.

4.6.2 Suitably worded conditions on any planning permission will be agreed, as well as delivery thresholds that will form part of the Section 106 legal agreement, to ensure that necessary infrastructure and facilities will be delivered at an appropriate juncture of the Proposed Development. The resultant timely delivery of this infrastructure and facilities will avoid increasing pressure on existing facilities in the surrounding area.

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4.7 RESIDUAL EFFECTS

4.7.1 As shown in the previous sections of this ES chapter, all effects of the Proposed Development will either be beneficial or negligible with one area of minor adverse effects. Consequently, the residual effects during demolition and construction and following completion of the Proposed Development would remain comparable to those described within the assessment of potential effects.

4.7.2 In summary, the overall socio-economic effects of the Proposed Development are considered to be beneficial, as it will: • provide a wide choice of housing of a broad range of types and tenures; • provide short and long-term employment opportunities; • increase expenditure in new and existing businesses and shops; • provide additional primary school places; • provide additional secondary school places and facilitates; • increase informal green space provision; • increase provision of community facilities; and • maintain public safety.

Post-completion stage

4.7.3 The effects identified are summarised in Table 4.31 below.

[Table 4.31: Summary of effects]

Potential effect Significance Mitigation measure Significance and (pre-mitigation) duration of residual effect Construction stage

Temporary; local to Temporary; local to Job Creation and None required regional scale; regional scale; Expenditure moderate beneficial Moderate Beneficial.

Post-completion stage

Permanent; local to Permanent; local to Increase in Associated provision of regional scale; major regional scale; infrastructure, insofar Major Population beneficial as this is necessary, in Beneficial a timely manner

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Permanent; local to Permanent; local to Housing Market None required regional scale; major regional scale; Major beneficial Beneficial

Permanent; local to Permanent; local to Economy and Job None required regional scale; major regional scale; Creation beneficial Moderate Beneficial

Permanent; local to Permanent; local to Retail regional scale; major None required regional scale; beneficial Moderate Beneficial

Permanent; local Permanent; local scale; Education scale (potential None required Major Beneficial regional); major beneficial Permanent; local Permanent; local scale; Libraries scale; minor None required Moderate Beneficial beneficial

Permanent; local Permanent; local scale; Crime and Safety scale; None required Negligible/Minor negligible/minor Beneficial beneficial Permanent; local Permanent; local scale; Health: scale; minor None required Moderate Beneficial GP Services beneficial

Permanent; local to Permanent; local to Health: regional scale; minor None required regional scale; Minor Hospital adverse Adverse

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Permanent; local Permanent; local scale; Open Space scale; moderate None required Moderate Beneficial beneficial

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4.8 CUMULATIVE EFFECTS

4.8.1 This assessment has considered the strategic allocations F and G in the Cardiff Local Development Plan.

• Strategic Site F is allocated for a total of 4,500 dwellings. The Proposed Development comprises approximately 56% of this allocation. • Strategic Site G is allocated for a total of 1,300 dwellings.

4.8.2 Planning applications have been submitted and granted for other sites within the Cardiff LDP strategic site allocations, a detailed breakdown of these are included in Table 4.32.

[Table 4.32: Planning applications submitted within Strategic Sites F and G]

Strategic Site F – Allocated for a total of 4,500 dwellings

Application Application type and Site address No. of Other provisions reference number date of decision dwellings

13/00649/DCO Full Planning Land off Cefn Mably 51 Small area of Application. Approved Road and Rudry Road, informal open 27/02/2014 Lisvane, Cardiff space

PA/13/00142 Screening Opinion Land to the North and 1,200 No documents or East of Lisvane, Cardiff reference to other provision publicly available 14/02891/MJR Hybrid Planning Churchlands, Land North 1,000 Provision for a (Replaces previously Application approved. and East of Lisvane, new primary approved application Reserved Matters and Lisvane, Cardiff school, cricket 13/02000/DCO for various Discharge of pitch and village 1,200 dwellings) Conditions submitted centre.

Strategic Site G – Allocated for a total of 1,300 dwellings

Application Application type Site address No. of Other provisions reference number and date of decision dwellings

13/0057/DCO Outline application Land East of Church 1,020 Provision for a approved Road and North and village centre, South of Bridge Road, open space, a 2 Old St Mellons F.E primary school and approximately 0.5ha of retail.

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10/01681/DCO Outline Planning Land at Church Road, 150 Application Application. Llanedyrn Village, includes provision Approved 16/09/2011 Pontprennau/ Old St for open space Mellons, Cardiff

PA/13/00050 Scoping Opinion Land east of Pentwyn 1,400 No documents or link road, North of A48 reference to other and South of M4, St provision publicly Mellons, Cardiff available

PA/13/00337 Scoping Opinion Land East of Church 140 No documents or Road and North and reference to other South of Bridge Road, provision publicly Old St Mellons available 14/02556/MJR Reserved Matters Phase 1 of St. Ederyn’s 452 Reserved Matters village in respect of 13/00578/DCO

15/00036/MNR Full Planning Land adjacent to Lisvane 40 Application Application Road (south side), provides provision Lisvane, Cardiff for open space

Population

4.8.5 The allocations comprising Strategic Sites F and G which includes the Proposed Development are proposed to deliver a total of 8,300 dwellings.

4.8.6 Assuming the average household size of 2.34 for Cardiff13 the combination of the developments could accommodate a future population of approximately 19,422. This would represent approximately a 5.61% addition to the population of Cardiff. The city of Cardiff has high growth projections, with approximately a 26% increase between 2014 and 2039 as outlined earlier in this Chapter. Therefore, the Proposed Development, in combination with the nearby development proposals would both cumulatively and individually provide a great number of homes and facilities for this growing population.

4.8.7 The cumulative effects on the population would be permanent, long-term benefits to the local and regional areas, contributing to a Major Beneficial impact.

13 2011 Census data

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Housing

4.8.8 The 8,300 homes built cumulatively as part of the strategic site allocations and the Proposed Development will help Cardiff Council to meet the current Local Plan target of delivering 41,415 dwellings over the Plan period (2006-2026, inclusive). The combined delivery of these developments will make a significant contribution towards the future housing supply of Cardiff, representing approximately 20% of Cardiff’s housing need over the Plan period.

4.8.9 The Proposed Development will include a wide range of house types that will allow for a varied choice of homes and a broad demographic. This is a major benefit of the Proposed Development. House types will be based upon a range of property sizes (likely to be between 1-5 bedrooms) at different densities. These will include a mix of terrace, semi-detached and detached houses with private garden space and parking, including higher density along the spine roads and within the District Centre. This will complement the development consented at Churchlands (Redrow Homes) which also comprises a part of Strategic Site F as referenced in Table 4.32 above.

4.8.10 A proportion of the housing within the Proposed Development will be identified as affordable housing and will comprise a mix of tenures and dwelling sizes. The affordable housing mix will have regard to national and local guidance and evidence of housing need and viability.

4.8.11 The overall scale of provision of the developments will be determined having regard to: • The policies of the Cardiff Local Development Plan (January 2016); • The particular development costs of the Project; • The priority afforded to the achievement of other planning objectives; and • The ability to secure funding to support provision if appropriate.

4.8.12 Overall, the developments will take account of relevant policy objectives and cumulatively promote growth to help meet the housing needs of Cardiff. This will support the objectives set out in the Cardiff Local Development Plan (January 2016). This will result in a permanent, long-term benefit of local and regional benefit to Cardiff and the wider South Wales area. Thus, the Proposed Development considered cumulatively with other development schemes in Cardiff will have a Major Beneficial impact for the City.

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Education

4.8.13 The cumulative effects on education provision of the residential development stipulated in Table 4.32 above has been considered in this section. Using the projected pupil generated by residential development as per the Cardiff Planning Obligations SPG (January 2017) and assuming the same breakdown of bedrooms as used for the Proposed Development above (Paragraphs 4.5.19 to 4.5.32) the following cumulative projection of pupils is generated:

8,300 dwellings / 2,500 dwellings = 3.32

Nursery: 140 x 3.32 = Approximately 465 nursery pupils,

Primary: 531 x 3.32 = Approximately 1,763 primary pupils,

Secondary: 401 x 3.32 = Approximately 1,332 pupils,

6th Form: 130 x 3.32 = Approximately 432 pupils.

4.8.14 The above calculations very much represent the worst-case scenario for the projected pupil numbers due to the cumulative effect of the residential developments. In reality, the number of pupils is likely to be lower than this. The calculations are based on housing developments only to generate a “worst-case” scenario. However, a proportion of dwellings will comprise of apartments which result in lower pupil yields.

4.8.15 The consented Churchland’s development is to provide 1 Primary School and off-site contributions towards education. It is envisaged, in line with Policy KP2 (F) that an additional Primary School will provided on Strategic Site F on land within the allocation that has not come forward to date. Additional school places are being provided as part of Strategic Site G to support the projected pupil numbers. Therefore, it is considered that sufficient school places are provided to meet cumulative development demands in Cardiff.

4.8.16 The Proposed Development combined with other residential schemes will result in a permanent, long-term benefit of local and regional benefit. Thus, the Proposed Development considered cumulatively with other development schemes in Cardiff will have a Major Beneficial impact for the City.

4.8.17 This section has demonstrated one method that could be used to calculate pupil numbers, however to ensure the provision of school places keeps up with the new

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developments coming forward in Cardiff, final numbers and provision would be negotiated and secured through Section 106 legal agreements.

Libraries

4.8.18 The cumulative developments would result in an increased demand for library provision across north-east Cardiff. Baseline information has been outlined within this Chapter covering the library provision across Cardiff. This includes 20 publicly accessible libraries across the entirety of Cardiff, with facility local to the Proposed Development within the Llanishen Hub. Given the proximity of these services and the availability of public transport it is considered that this is ample provision to accommodate the increased demand.

4.8.19 As such, the demand generated as a cumulative effect of the developments will be permanent, of a local nature and have a Negligible to Minor Beneficial impact in supporting the future viable use of existing library services.

Crime and Safety

4.8.20 There are unlikely to be any significant cumulative effects arising from the interaction of the Proposed Development and other nearby proposals. As outlined above, by introducing a wide range of new uses the Proposed Development and the other nearby proposals will mean that the existing sites will be used more intensively both during the day and at night. This will increase indirect surveillance, which in turn will help reduce existing and perceived levels of crime.

4.8.21 These effects would therefore be positive compared with the existing surroundings; effects on safety would be permanent, local and of Negligible to Minor Beneficial significance.

Health

GPs

4.8.22 As a result of the cumulative development assessed for this Chapter, there is potential demand for up to 19,422 additional patients. At this current stage there is no planned provision for new GP services in north-east Cardiff as part of the Proposed Developments. In the absence of any mitigation measures the cumulative impact of the proposed developments would be likely to result in negative impacts upon existing GP services. The cumulative effect on dental provision would be similar to that outlined for GP services.

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4.8.23 It is important to note that although health provisions are not outlined in detail, the Proposed Development will provide a District Centre and mixed-use areas accommodating uses which will include Use Class D1 (non-residential institutions, including medical and health services, creches, library, conference centre, community centres and places of worship). Therefore, the Proposed Development is to provide the opportunity for GP and other health facilities, and the Cardiff and Vale Health Board will identify the need and locations for further NHS practices. It is expected that provision will also be coordinated across other nearby proposals and secured as necessary through Section 106 legal agreements.

4.8.24 As such, development will lead to increased GP provision in the north-east of Cardiff, being permanent, local to the area and of Minor Beneficial significance.

Hospitals

4.8.25 Likewise, the additional patient generation will increase the demand upon the University Hospital of Wales. In the absence of any mitigation measures, this is likely to result in a permanent change of local to regional significance thereby having a Minor Adverse impact on the hospital provision in Cardiff.

4.8.26 However, given the cumulative development proposals comprise of development which has been planned for as part of strategic allocations within the Cardiff LDP, NHS Wales and the respective health boards will be aware and preparing for the increased population of the city.

Open Space

4.8.27 The cumulative developments include the provision of a variety of open space types. The Proposed Development provides a large amount of play facilities and open space. This will be complemented by the formal sports provisions provided by other proposals within Strategic Site F in line with policy, such as Churchlands and the landholdings yet to be developed. In addition, there will be sport provision secured through Section 106 agreements or on-site provision as part of Strategic Site G.

4.8.28 As such, the cumulative development proposals will lead to increased formal and informal open space provision in the north-east of Cardiff. This will be permanent, local to the area and of Major Beneficial significance.