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Eika Presentasjon

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Eika Presentasjon Investor presentation May 2018 v:1.0 Executive summary •The economy is improving •Robust, local saving banks •Conservative cover pool • GDP-growth above trend in 2017-2018 • 3rd largest Norwegian banking group • Maximum 60% LTV for mortgages at after low growth in 2015-2016 • Focus on retail lending origination and strict underwriting criteria • Large current account and fiscal • High asset quality with low levels of • No arrears or losses since inception surpluses doubtful & non-performing loans, low LTV • Prudent risk management with regards to • Lower unemployment and no direct exposure to oil/offshore refinancing, liquidity, currency, interest rate • Correction in house prices in 2017 after • Strong and diversified deposit base and counterparty risk very strong development in 2016 • Strong capitalization and high level of • Credit guarantees from the distributors and • Petroleum investments are expected to liquidity buffers capital and liquidity support agreements increase again from 2018 after more • Strong position in the local markets with the owners than 25% drop from 2014 to 2017 2 3 • Constitutional monarchy; Non EU member (EEA member); • Expected contributors to growth in 2018/19: Population of 5.3 million • Positive contribution from private consumption, increased export, public investments & consumption, • Aaa / AAA / AAA rated country (all with stable outlook) petroleum investments and other mainland industrial investments • GDP per capita amongst the highest in the OECD countries – estimated to be 48% higher than the average in EU (28 • Negative contribution from reduced housing countries) investments 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E GDP growth (Mainland) 3.8 % 2.3 % 2.2 % 1.1 % 1.0 % 1.8 % 2.4 % 2.3 % 2.3 % 2.1 % Consumer price inflation 0.8 % 2.1 % 2.0 % 2.1 % 3.6 % 1.8 % 2.0 % 1.6 % 1.8 % 2.0 % Unemployment 3.2 % 3.5 % 3.5 % 4.4 % 4.7 % 4.2 % 3.9 % 3.7 % 3.7 % 3.7 % Private Consumption 3.5 % 2.1 % 2.0 % 2.1 % 1.5 % 2.3 % 2.5 % 2.7 % 2.5 % 2.8 % Household savings rate 7.4 % 7.4 % 8.5 % 10.4 % 6.7 % 7.3 % 7.2 % 7.6 % 8.3 % 8.7 % Houseprices 6.7 % 4.1 % 2.7 % 6.1 % 7.0 % 5.0 % -2.8 % 1.1 % 1.5 % 2.3 % Interest rates (money market) 2.2 % 1.8 % 1.7 % 1.3 % 1.1 % 0.9 % 1.0 % 1.4 % 1.9 % 2.3 % Government net lending as % of GDP 13.8 % 10.8 % 8.7 % 6.1 % 4.0 % 4.4 % 4.9 % 5.1 % n/a n/a Government pension fund / GDP 129 % 164 % 204 % 238 % 238 % 246 % 251 % 257 % 261 % 266 % Source: Statistics Norway – Økonomisk utsyn 1/2018 , OECD – Economic Outlook No 103 May 2018 and Norges Bank 4 Real GDP growth (rebased to 100 in 2007) Government net lending Government Pension Fund Global 125 2017 2018E 2019E 120 6,0 115 4,0 2,0 110 0,0 105 -2,0 100 in % of in of % GDP -4,0 95 -6,0 90 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E -8,0 Euro area (16 Germany Italy Norway United States Norway Germany Italy Euro area United States countries) Source: OECD Economic Outlook No. 103 (database), May 2018 Source : Norges Bank, Statistics Norway, Q1 2018 Source: OECD Economic Outlook No. 103 (database), May 2018 • Economic growth at an annual average of 1.7% for • Significant government net lending (4.4% of GDP in • Norway has a strong balance sheet Norwegian mainland GDP last 10 years 2017) and the Government Pension Fund more than twice the size of GDP • High net central government financial assets (290% • Strong current account surplus averaging 10.0% of of GDP in 2016) GDP since 2008 5 Norway has consistently low Survey unemployment rate and Vacancies unemployment rate total employment 14,0 2,6 12,0 2,5 2,4 10,0 2,3 2,2 8,0 % 2,1 % 6,0 2,0 1,9 4,0 1,8 1,7 2,0 1,6 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 0,0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E Vacancies Euro area Germany Italy Norway United States Source: OECD Economic Outlook No. 103 (database), May 2018 Source: Statistics Norway, February 2018 Source: Statistics Norway, Q4 2017 • A stable economy ensures a high rate of employment • Labour immigration to Norway has been high over the • A strong welfare system provides significant income past 10 years but is sensitive to changes in protection: average unemployment benefit is 62.4% of • The survey based unemployment rate has fallen by unemployment. Thus lower migration have salary (capped at NOK 540,408) for a minimum of 104 1.1%-points to 3.9% after hitting the highest level in counterbalanced increase unemployment weeks the last decade of 5.0% in July 2016. Unemployment is expected to decline somewhat over the next couple of years from current levels of 3.9% and remain at low levels compared to elsewhere in Europe 6 Norwegian GDP growth – dependent on much more than petroleum Petroleum investments 250 6 5 200 4 3 2 150 1 0 Billion NOK 100 -1 -2 -3 50 -4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2018 2019 2020 2021 0 Annualized quarterly growth Prognosis 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Private Consumptions Public consumption and investment Petroleum investment Fields in production Field developments Exploration Shutdown and removal Pipeline and onshore activities Housing investment Other investment Export Mainland GDP Source: Statistics Norway and Norges bank, Q4 2017 Source: Statistics Norway, Økonomisk utsyn 1/2018 • Public and private consumption, housing investment, other investment and • The reduction in petroleum investments have decelerated in 2017. These export have been positive contributors to growth in 2017. Petroleum investments are expected to pick up going forward driven by reduced costs in investments has been a drag on growth for the last 2015/16, but only a the industry and improved prospects for the oil price marginal negative effect in 2017 7 Home • Among the highest in the world - around 77% are Personal • Borrowers personally liable for their debt – also owner-occupied households following foreclosures and forced sales ownership liability • Total size of the mortgage market NOK 2,662 bn • Prompt and efficient foreclosure process upon (EUR 270bn) non-payment • Strong incentives to service debt reflected in low MoF lending • Mortgages maximum LTV 85% (60% for arrears secondary homes in Oslo) • Transparent and reliable information about regulation* • Mortgages with an LTV > 60% are required to be borrowers available to the lenders amortizing • Debt service ability is stress tested for a 5% - point Mortgage • 97.5 % of residential mortgage loans granted by increase in interest rates banks/mortgage companies (Q3 2017) • Total debt over gross income less than 5 lending • Typical legal maturity 25-30 years, on average 22- 23 years • 93.1% of residential mortgages have variable Tax incentives • All interest expenses are tax deductible in Norway interest rate (Q4 2017) at capital gains tax rate (23%) • Lenders allowed to adjust interest rates with a six • Preferential treatment of properties when week notice calculating the wealth tax (0.85%) • No “sub-prime” market in Norway • Capital gain on a dwelling tax-free after one year of occupancy by the owner • Very limited buy-to-let market * The Ministry of Finance sets mortgage guidelines in the regulation as of 1. June 2015, a stricter set of rules than the guidelines set prior to that 8 Nominal house price development House prices – larger Cities (twelve-month change) House prices- Monthly and twelve-month change 400 30 2,0 14 25 350 12 1,5 20 10 300 15 1,0 8 250 10 6 % % 0,5 % 5 200 4 0 0,0 2 150 -5 0 -0,5 100 -10 -2 -15 -1,0 -4 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2000 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 UK USA Denmark Sweden Norway Bergen Oslo Stavanger Trondheim Seasonally adjusteted monthly change (l.h.s) Twelve•month change (r.h.s.) Source: S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller US National Home Price NSA Index, Danmark statistik Ejen14, Source: Eiendom Norge, Eiendomsverdi og Finn.no, February 2018 Source: Eiendom Norge, Eiendomsverdi og Finn.no, February 2018 Hometrack House price Index, Valueguard HOX® Index, Eiendomsverdi, February – April 2018 • Nominal house prices have increased by an average of • House prices are expected to show moderate • Average house price in Norway is € 375,000, average 6.7% per annum since 2000. increases going forward driven from expected house price in Oslo is € 506,000 increase in mortgage rates, increased supply and slower population growth 2 2 • The Norwegian housing market have been through a • Average m price in Norway is € 4,252 , average m clear shift in trend in 2017 where prices on a price in Oslo is € 7,183 countrywide basis are influenced by falling prices in • The soft landing in housing prices in 2017, lower the Oslo area, but the housing market improved again housings starts and improved growth in the economy in 2018 have reduced the risk for a sudden and significant downward correction in house prices going forward 9 Housing starts (twelve-month change) Strong population growth Low average lending rates 25000 50 5,4 4,5 45 4,0 5,2 20000 Million Thousand 40 3,5 5,0 3,0 15000 35 4,8 30 2,5 % 10000 25 4,6 2,0 20 1,5 5000 4,4 15 1,0 4,2 0,5 0 10 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 4,0 0,0 5 Eastern Norway 1) Rest of Norway 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 0 3,8 Key policy rate Mortgage lending rate 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 Excess births Net immigration Population (RHS) Source: Statistics Norway, March 2018 1) Akershus, Buskerud, Hedmark, Oppland, Oslo, Telemark, Vestfold and Østfold Source: Statistics Norway, Q4 2017 Source: Statistics Norway, Thomson Reuters,, Norges Bank, projections broken lines, Q4 2017 • New home construction is down from “all time • Net immigration down from above 47,000 in • Low average mortgage rates for households.
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