A Multi-Country Study Measuring the Attitudes of Citizens in Israel, UAE

A Multi-Country Study

Measuring the Attitudes of Citizens in Israel, UAE, Bahrain, Palestinian Authority, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Morocco, United States, and Germany Towards the Israel-UAE-Bahrain Peace Accords

KONRAD-ADENAUER-STIFTUNG – ISRAEL OFFICE Dr. Alexander Brakel, Representative to Israel

Mitchell Barak KEEVOON Global Research 11 November 2020 Survey Methodology

PAL SAUDI ISRAEL UAE BAHRAIN QATAR MOROCCO GERMANY USA AUTHORITY ARABIA

Sample 503 HEB 399 317 404 505 267 499 500 534 Size 86 ARB

Data 18-23 18-25 18 Oct – 18-29 18-24 19 Oct – 18-24 19-26 18-27 Collection October October 2 Nov October October 2 Nov October October October

Margin of 4.04% 4.91% 5.50% 4.88% 4.36% 6.00% 4.39% 4.38% 4.24% Error +/-

• Representative sample in each country • Quotas for Gender and Age based on population • Data collection via mobile telephone, in-APP • Screener for nationality in Gulf countries Key Findings I • Iran is not as big a threat as we like to think • UAE and Bahrain are really 2 different countries – Abraham Accords • Israelis like Emiratis and Bahrainis much more than they like us • Minimal support for Abraham Accords among Gulf States • Everybody likes the Palestinians (in the Gulf States) • No “best broker” for Israelis and Palestinians – not even….USA • Lukewarm support for right of Israel to exist, except UAE • Moving US Embassy to Jerusalem diminishes possibility for Peace • Health a greater concern than Finances for most • Strong confidence in Government handling of COVID-19, except Israel • Gulf States probably happy Joe Biden was elected, Israel MUCH less so Generally, speaking, do you think that things in ______are going in the RIGHT DIRECTION, or the WRONG DIRECTION?

RIGHT DIRECTION WRONG DIRECTION 88 86 82

69 59 54 43 40 39 39 32 32 33 28 25 25 21 22 22 11 8 9 7 7 7 8 4

ISRAEL UAE BAHRAIN PAL AUTH SAUDI MOROCCO QATAR GERMANY USA ARABIA COUNTRIES

Favorable / Unfavorable Do you have a FAVORABLE or UNFAVORABLE impression of…… CHART SHOWS TOTAL FOR ALL RESPONDENTS (4,014) FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE 76

65 63 60 62 55 54 55 47 39 35 29 31 25 27 22 21 15

ISRAEL UAE BAHRAIN PAL AUTH SAUDI MOROCCO QATAR GERMANY USA ARABIA Do you have a FAVORABLE or UNFAVORABLE impression of……ISRAEL

76 FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE NOT SURE 70 65 59 56 53 49 46 48 43

31 33 28 26 28 23 25 20 21 19 16 14 11 11 12 13 4

ISRAEL UAE BAHRAIN PAL AUTH SAUDI MOROCCO QATAR GERMANY USA ARABIA Do you have a FAVORABLE or UNFAVORABLE impression of……UAE

93 FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE NOT SURE 84 86

67 64 60 58

46 37 33 35 30 29 30 28 25 24

12 8 8 8 10 9 5 7 2 2

ISRAEL UAE BAHRAIN PAL AUTH SAUDI MOROCCO QATAR GERMANY USA ARABIA Do you have a FAVORABLE or UNFAVORABLE impression of……BAHRAIN

89 FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE NOT SURE 86 85

65 59 60 49 48 45

32 31 29 28 24 26 26 19 20 20 12 11 8 9 7 3 5 4

ISRAEL UAE BAHRAIN PAL AUTH SAUDI MOROCCO QATAR GERMANY USA ARABIA Do you have a FAVORABLE or UNFAVORABLE impression of…… PALESTINIAN AUTHORITY FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE NOT SURE 80 73 74 73 70 71

56 48 42 34 31 28 30 20 21 20 21 17 19 13 15 10 9 8 7 5 5

ISRAEL UAE BAHRAIN PAL AUTH SAUDI MOROCCO QATAR GERMANY USA ARABIA Do you have a FAVORABLE or UNFAVORABLE impression of……SAUDI ARABIA

93 FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE NOT SURE 86 83

64 56 52 54 52 45 43 38 38 30 28 23 21 20 12 12 10 10 7 8 6 2 4 3

ISRAEL UAE BAHRAIN PAL AUTH SAUDI MOROCCO QATAR GERMANY USA ARABIA Do you have a FAVORABLE or UNFAVORABLE impression of……MOROCCO FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE NOT SURE 82 79 78 74 68 65

52 52

38 32 32 30 32 23 23 21 16 16 13 12 13 12 9 8 10 5 5

ISRAEL UAE BAHRAIN PAL AUTH SAUDI MOROCCO QATAR GERMANY USA ARABIA Do you have a FAVORABLE or UNFAVORABLE impression of……QATAR

FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE NOT SURE 91 81

69 66 63 54 45 43 39 39 36 34 29 28 29 25 27 16 15 16 8 9 10 10 9 5 4

ISRAEL UAE BAHRAIN PAL AUTH SAUDI MOROCCO QATAR GERMANY USA ARABIA Do you have a FAVORABLE or UNFAVORABLE impression of……GERMANY

FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE NOT SURE 89 90 86 80 78 72 68 65 65

29 23 19 18 17 14 11 7 9 9 9 8 9 6 4 5 5 5

ISRAEL UAE BAHRAIN PAL AUTH SAUDI MOROCCO QATAR GERMANY USA ARABIA Do you have a FAVORABLE or UNFAVORABLE impression of……USA FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE NOT SURE 78 73 74 69 70 62 61 62

45 45

34 26 23 25 25 25 20 21 13 13 10 6 5 5 2 4 4

ISRAEL UAE BAHRAIN PAL AUTH SAUDI MOROCCO QATAR GERMANY USA ARABIA ABRAHAM ACCORDS Recently, the Abraham Accords, a Peace Agreement between Israel, United Arab Emirates, and Bahrain was signed at the White House. Brokered by the United States, it normalizes relations between Israel and the UAE and Bahrain. Do you SUPPORT or OPPOSE the agreement?

86 SUPPORT OPPOSE NOT SURE

70 69 67 63 57 52 46 48 35 36 31 23 25 22 21 20 20 17 17 18 12 13 10 9 9 4

ISRAEL UAE BAHRAIN PAL AUTH SAUDI MOROCCO QATAR GERMANY USA ARABIA Which areas do you think are most important for relations between Israel and the UAE and Bahrain? (2 Combined Choices = 200%)

51 50 49 47 47 44 42 43 40 37 38 38 38 3636 36 35 35 32 32 313130 31 30 31 30 29 2829 29 25 25 2525 2525 23 23 2324 21 22 19 20 20 18 17 15 16 16 1615 16 16 13 14 11 9 5 6

SEC COOP ME TRADE/COMMERCE TOURISM SCIENCE/TECH REG DEV CULTURE NOT SURE ISRAEL UAE BAHRAIN PAL AUTH SAUDI ARABIA MOROCCO QATAR GERMANY USA Which areas do you think are most important for relations between Israel and the UAE and Bahrain? (2 Combined Choices = 200%)

51 50 47 47

42 40 38 38 38 37 36 36 36 35 35 32 32 31 31 31 30 30 30 29 29 28 25 25 25 25 25 25 24 23 23 23 22 21 18 17 16 16 15 13

9 6 6 5 4

ISRAEL UAE BAHRAIN PAL AUTH SAUDI ARABIA MOROCCO QATAR SEC COOP TRADE TOURISM SCI/TECH REG DEV CULTURE NOT SURE When thinking the Abraham Accords, who benefits most, Israel, the UAE and Bahrain, or the United States?

47 47 41 38 36 35 34 29 30 25 24 25 24 20 20 21 18 18 16 16 17 16 14 13 10 7

ISRAEL UAE BAHRAIN PAL AUTH SAUDI MOROCCO QATAR GERMANY USA ARABIA ISRAEL UAE/BAHRAIN USA REGIONAL STABILITY Which country do you think threatens regional stability MOST?

45 43

39 37

27 26 25 24

18 18 17 17 14 13 13 13 12 12 12 11 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1

ISRAEL UAE BAHRAIN PAL AUTH SAUDI MOROCCO QATAR GERMANY USA ARABIA ISRAEL IRAN USA PAL AUTH RUSSIA TURKEY SAUDI ARABIA SYRIA LEBANON How great a threat to the region do you think IRAN is? 1 – 10 /

8 Chart Shows MEAN (Average) 7.4

7 6.8 6.5 6.2 6 6 5.4 5.3

5 4.6

4 3.8

0 ISRAEL UAE BAHRAIN PAL AUTH SAUDI ARABI MOROCCO QATAR GERMANY USA How great a threat to the region do you think Iran is?

WEAK 1-4 MODERATE 5-7 STRONG 8-10

46 47 42 43 37 35 33 30 30 29 28 26 27 24 24 25 22 21 22 19 16 17 17 16 14 11

ISRAEL UAE BAHRAIN PAL AUTH SAUDI ARABIA MOROCCO QATAR GERMANY USA PALESTINIANS & ISRAELIS

ISRAELIS & PALESTINIANS Do you AGREE or DISAGREE that there should be a Palestinian State?

AGREE DISAGREE NOT SURE 88 90 84 85 81 72

47 45

35 33 29 22 24 22 11 8 9 8 9 7 6 7 7 5 6 2

ISRAEL UAE BAHRAIN PAL AUTH SAUDI MOROCCO QATAR GERMANY USA ARABIA If an independent Palestinian State is not an option, which of the following would you support MOST?

BINAT STATE W/IL BINAT STATE W/JORDAN IL-PAL FEDERATION PAL UNDER IL - NO CITIZEN NOT SURE

50 47 47 44 42

36 37

29 26 26 27 24 24 24 20 20 21 21 17 17 17 18 15 15 16 16 15 15 12 12 13 13 13 13 10 10 11 11 9 8 8 9 8 8 6

ISRAEL UAE BAHRAIN PAL AUTH SAUDI ARABIA MOROCCO QATAR GERMANY USA Do you AGREE or DISAGREE that ISRAEL has the right to exist as the “Nation-State of the Jewish People”?

81 AGREE DISAGREE NOT SURE 76 69 61 63 61

49 46 46 36 28 29 30 22 24 24 20 19 18 19 14 11 13 11 13 12 5

ISRAEL UAE BAHRAIN PAL AUTH SAUDI MOROCCO QATAR GERMANY USA ARABIA Do you AGREE or DISAGREE that ISRAEL has the “Right to Exist”?

84 AGREE DISAGREE NOT SURE 77

62 62 59 59 56 57 52

39 33 27 24 26 24 21 23 18 17 15 14 12 12 11 8 4 4

ISRAEL UAE BAHRAIN PAL AUTH SAUDI MOROCCO QATAR GERMANY USA ARABIA Nation State of the Jewish People VS. Right to Exist

81 84 NATION STATE RIGHT TO EXIST 77 69 61 59 59 46 39 30 27 24 24 26 22 23 20 13

ISRAEL UAE BAHRAIN PAL AUTH SAUDI MOROCCO QATAR GERMANY USA ARABIA Of the following which do you think can most effectively broker a deal between Israelis and Palestinians?

USA ARAB LEAGUE UNITED NATIONS SAUDI ARABIA EUROPEAN UNION GERMANY JORDAN RUSSIA

23 21 1818 17 16 16 16 15 15 13 13 12 12 12 11 11 11 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2

ISRAEL UAE BAHRAIN PAL AUTH SAUDI ARABIA MOROCCO QATAR GERMANY USA In 2018 the United States moved their Embassy in Israel to Jerusalem; do you think it IMPROVES or DIMINISHES the chances for Peace in the region?

IMPROVES DIMINISHES NEITHER NOT SURE 60 54 52 53 46 44 42 41 38 33 33 28 29 28 24 23 22 19 19 18 16 17 17 16 15 14 15 12 12 12 10 9 10 7 8 4

ISRAEL UAE BAHRAIN PAL AUTH SAUDI MOROCCO QATAR GERMANY USA ARABIA BIDEN & TRUMP Do you have a FAVORABLE or UNFAVORABLE impression of JOE BIDEN

FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE NOT SURE 69 62 54 49 45 44 42 41 41 39 38 37 36 31 32 28 26 25 21 22 23 23 18 19 13 15 7

ISRAEL UAE BAHRAIN PAL AUTH SAUDI MOROCCO QATAR GERMANY USA ARABIA Do you have a FAVORABLE or UNFAVORABLE impression of DONALD TRUMP

FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE NOT SURE 73 69 61 58 51 53 47 44 46 41 37 39 38 38 33 28

18 19 20 17 15 14 12 8 9 5 7

ISRAEL UAE BAHRAIN PAL AUTH SAUDI MOROCCO QATAR GERMANY USA ARABIA FAVORABLE JOE BIDEN vs. DONALD TRUMP

BIDEN TRUMP 69 62 58 54 51 49 45 47 41 42 37 38 38 28 28 19 14 15

ISRAEL UAE BAHRAIN PAL AUTH SAUDI MOROCCO QATAR GERMANY USA ARABIA Which candidate do you think will be more successful in the Middle East when it comes to STABILITY and PEACE? 56 BIDEN TRUMP 54 47 47 43 40 37 30 27 25 22 23 19 16 14 11 12 6

ISRAEL UAE BAHRAIN PAL AUTH SAUDI MOROCCO QATAR GERMANY USA ARABIA COVID-19 COVID-19: While both are critical, looking towards the future, are you and your family more concerned about your personal… HEALTH or FINANCES

HEALTH FINANCES 65 66 66 61 60 55 52 52 48 48 50 50 45 39 40 35 34 34

ISRAEL UAE BAHRAIN PAL AUTH SAUDI MOROCCO QATAR GERMANY USA ARABIA COVID-19: While both are critical, looking towards the future, are you and your family more concerned about your personal… HEALTH or FINANCES

HEALTH FINANCES 66 66 56 54 52 54 52 48 48 50 50 46 44 46

34 34

ISRAEL PAL AUTH GERMANY USA ISRAEL PAL AUTH GERMANY USA

MAY 2020 NOVEMBER 2020 Do you SUPPORT or OPPOSE the way NETANYAHU / ABBAS / MERKEL / TRUMP / YOUR GOVERNMENT is handling the Coronavirus outbreak and crisis?

SUPPORT OPPOSE 88 86 84 76

58 55 53 49 47 48 42 38 33 29

8 11 9 10

ISRAEL UAE BAHRAIN PAL AUTH SAUDI MOROCCO QATAR GERMANY USA ARABIA Do you SUPPORT or OPPOSE the way NETANYAHU / ABBAS / MERKEL / TRUMP is handling the Coronavirus outbreak and crisis?

SUPPORT OPPOSE 67 59 58 55 55 53 48 45 47 36 38 33 29 29 29 24

ISRAEL PAL AUTH GERMANY USA ISRAEL PAL AUTH GERMANY USA

MAY 2020 NOVEMBER 2020 Key Findings - Conclusion • Iran is not as big a threat as we like to think • UAE and Bahrain are really 2 different countries – Abraham Accords • Israelis like Emiratis and Bahrainis much more than they like us • Minimal support for Abraham Accords among Gulf States • Everybody likes the Palestinians (in the Gulf States) • No “best broker” for Israelis and Palestinians – not even….USA • Lukewarm support for right of Israel to exist, except UAE • Moving US Embassy to Jerusalem diminishes possibility for Peace • Health a greater concern than Finances for most • Strong confidence in Government handling of COVID-19, except Israel • Gulf States probably happy Joe Biden was elected, Israel MUCH less so For more information…..

Dr. Alexander Brakel Mitchell Barak

Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung KEEVOON Global Research Jerusalem, Israel Jerusalem, Israel Tel: +972-52-404-6600 Tel: +972-2-567-1830

[email protected] [email protected] www.keevoon.com www.kas.de/israel