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Southern Atlanta Suburbs

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Southern Atlanta Suburbs The analysis presented in this report was completed prior to the COVID-19 outbreak in the United States and therefore the forecast estimates do not take into account the economic and housing market impacts of the actions taken to limit contagion of the virus. At this time, the duration and depth of the economic disruption are unclear, as are the extent and effectiveness of countermeasures. HUD will continue to monitor market conditions in the HMA and provide an updated report/addendum in the future. COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS Atlanta Metropolitan Area Series Focus On: Southern Atlanta Suburbs U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Office of Policy Development and Research As of January 1, 2020 Share on: Atlanta Metropolitan Area Series Focus On: Southern Atlanta Suburbs Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis as of January 1, 2020 Executive Summary 2 Executive Summary Housing Market Area Description The Southern Atlanta Suburbs Housing Market Area (HMA) consists of eight counties (Carroll, Clayton, Coweta, Douglas, Henry, Fayette, Newton, and Rockdale) and is part of the 29-county Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA Metropolitan Statistical Area (hereafter, Atlanta MSA). The current population of the HMA is estimated at 1.27 million, 21 percent of the Atlanta MSA population. The HMA is a popular place to live for people who commute to jobs in the economic core of the Atlanta MSA, particularly DeKalb and Fulton Counties. The population is heavily concentrated along the Interstate 75 (I-75), Interstate 85 Tools and Resources (I-85), and Interstate 20 (I-20) corridors near the city of Find interim updates for this metropolitan area, and select geographies nationally, Atlanta. Notable cities in the HMA include Carrollton, at PD&R’s Market-at-a-Glance tool. Additional data for the HMA can be found in this report’s supplemental tables. Douglasville, Newnan, and Peachtree City. For information on HUD-supported activity in this area, see the Community Assessment Reporting Tool. Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis Atlanta Metropolitan Area Series Focus On: Southern Atlanta Suburbs U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Office of Policy Development and Research Atlanta Metropolitan Area Series Focus On: Southern Atlanta Suburbs Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis as of January 1, 2020 Executive Summary 3 Market Qualifiers Economy Sales Market Rental Market Strong: 63,800 jobs were added Balanced: A 3.5-month supply Balanced: The average apartment in the Atlanta MSA during 2019. of inventory was available as of vacancy rate in the HMA decreased December 2019, down from a slightly, and the average apartment 3.8-month supply during December 2018 rent increased 6 percent during the and significantly less than the 13.5-month past year. supply during December 2010. Economic conditions in the MSA are strong. The sales market in the HMA is currently balanced. The rental housing market in the HMA is currently During 2019, nonfarm payrolls in the MSA Reduced levels of home construction and balanced with an estimated overall rental vacancy increased by 63,800 jobs, or 2.3 percent, up increased net in-migration have contributed to rate of 6.0 percent, down from 13.2 percent in from the 2.1-percent growth rate during 2018. significant absorption of excess inventory since April 2010. Strong growth in renter households has By comparison, nonfarm payrolls in the nation the early 2010s. As of January 1, 2020, the overall generally outpaced construction of rental units and increased 1.4 percent during 2019 and 1.6 percent sales vacancy rate was estimated at 1.6 percent, the conversion of owner-occupied units to rental during 2018. During the 3-year forecast period, down from 3.7 percent in April 2010. During the use since 2010. During the next 3 years, demand nonfarm payroll growth in the MSA is expected 3-year forecast period, demand is estimated for in the HMA is expected for 3,850 new rental to average 1.7 percent annually, with the HMA 17,000 new homes, accounting for 24 percent units, representing 12 percent of demand in the benefitting from that growth. of total demand in the Atlanta MSA. Demand Atlanta MSA. The 1,800 rental units currently under is expected to increase each year during the construction in the HMA, and the 930 additional forecast period as population growth accelerates units in planning, will satisfy most of the demand and economic conditions remain strong. The during the next 2 years. 2,500 homes currently under construction will satisfy some of the forecast demand. TABLE OF CONTENTS Economic Conditions 4 3-Year Housing Demand Forecast Sales Units Rental Units Population and Households 10 MSA* Southern Atlanta Suburbs HMA MSA* Southern Atlanta Suburbs HMA Home Sales Market 14 Total Demand 69,900 17,000 32,200 3,850 Rental Market 19 Under Construction 14,200 2,500 18,000 1,800 *Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell Metropolitan Statistical Area Terminology Definitions and Notes 22 Notes: Total demand represents estimated production necessary to achieve a balanced market at the end of the forecast period. Units under construction as of January 1, 2020. The forecast period is January 1, 2020, to January 1, 2023. Source: Estimates by the analyst Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis Atlanta Metropolitan Area Series Focus On: Southern Atlanta Suburbs U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Office of Policy Development and Research Atlanta Metropolitan Area Series Focus On: Southern Atlanta Suburbs Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis as of January 1, 2020 Economic Conditions 4 Table 1. 12-Month Average Nonfarm Payroll Jobs (1,000s) Economic Conditions in the Atlanta MSA* by Sector 12 Months 12 Months Largest Sector: Professional and Business Services Ending Ending Absolute Percentage December December Change Change 2018 2019 Economic conditions in the Atlanta MSA have been strong since 2014; Total Nonfarm Payroll Jobs 2,785.6 2,849.4 63.8 2.3 job growth has exceeded the national rate every year since 2011. Goods-Producing Sectors 295.6 303.4 7.8 2.6 Mining, Logging, & Construction 126.9 131.5 4.6 3.6 Primary Local Economic Factors Manufacturing 168.7 171.9 3.2 1.9 The Atlanta MSA is an international hub for logistics, education, health care, Service-Providing Sectors 2,490.0 2,546.1 56.1 2.3 and trade. The presence of Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport—the Wholesale & Retail Trade 443.7 445.5 1.8 0.4 busiest airport in the world since 2000 (Airports Council International)—and Transportation & Utilities 148.1 156.8 8.7 5.9 the educated workforce—including graduates from Emory University, Georgia Information 99.2 101.1 1.9 1.9 Institute of Technology, and Georgia State University—make the MSA an Financial Activities 173.1 177.4 4.3 2.5 attractive location for corporations. The headquarters of nearly 30 Fortune Professional & Business Services 537.2 549.3 12.1 2.3 1,000 companies are in the Atlanta MSA, including Delta Air Lines, Inc., Education & Health Services 356.5 371.7 15.2 4.3 The Home Depot, Inc., AT&T Inc., United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS), and Leisure & Hospitality 297.6 305.4 7.8 2.6 The Coca-Cola Company. The HMA is located just outside the city of Atlanta Other Services 100.8 104.2 3.4 3.4 and has been a generally stable part of the economy of the MSA during the Government 333.9 334.7 0.8 0.2 *Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell Metropolitan Statistical Area past two decades. The HMA currently accounts for approximately 15 percent Notes: Based on 12-month averages through December 2018 and December 2019. Numbers may not add to totals due to rounding. Data are in thousands. of covered employment in the MSA, down slightly from 16 percent during 2010, Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics but equal to the 15-percent share in 2001 (Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages [QCEW]). the MSA during 2019 (Figure 1) and added the second most jobs, 12,100—an Current Conditions—Nonfarm Payrolls increase of 2.3 percent. The fastest rate of job growth was in the transportation Job growth remained strong in the Atlanta MSA during the past year and and utilities sector, which was up 5.9 percent, or by 8,700 jobs. The opening of continued to exceed the rate for the nation. During 2019, nonfarm payrolls in a new UPS distribution hub outside the HMA in northwest Atlanta contributed the MSA averaged 2.85 million jobs, an increase of 63,800 jobs, or 2.3 percent, significantly to the job growth in the sector. The facility, which is the second from a year ago (Table 1). That rate of job growth was up from 2.1 percent during largest UPS facility in the nation at 1.2 million square feet, processes 2018 and was higher than the 1.4-percent rate for the nation. All nonfarm payroll approximately 100,000 parcels an hour and created 3,000 jobs when it opened sectors added jobs in the MSA. The education and health services sector, which in late 2018. Current nonfarm payroll data is not available for the HMA, although expanded by 15,200 jobs, or 4.3 percent, led job growth. The professional and recent economic conditions have been significantly influenced by the overall business services sector accounted for 19 percent of the nonfarm payrolls in trends within the MSA. Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis Atlanta Metropolitan Area Series Focus On: Southern Atlanta Suburbs U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Office of Policy Development and Research Atlanta Metropolitan Area Series Focus On: Southern Atlanta Suburbs Comprehensive Housing Market Analysis as of January 1, 2020 Economic Conditions 5 Figure 1.
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