Monthly Food Security Report for Niger May 2004
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Monthly Food Security Report for Niger May 2004 Summary The rainy season got off to a slow start with light rainfall in the country’s agricultural regions. Weather conditions allowed 1,791 villages to begin planting. In May, plants were mainly at the emergent stage. A consensual estimate of food security made in May by the Early Warning System (EWS) and its partners concludes that economic conditions are generally favorable for urban and rural households, despite this being the beginning of the pre-harvest period, which usually causes exceptional deterioration in food sources and income. Poor households in the areas surrounding Niamey are experiencing a deterioration of their household food security. The desert locusts have moved recently toward the southern parts of Tabelot and Air, increasing worries of crop damage, which would undermine one of the most important sources of food on which most households in Niger depend. This year, the exhaustion of household reserves and the normal May reduction in the amount of cereals available in the markets did not cause prices to rise significantly, due to the availability of cereals and the efficiency of a system of exchange based on domestic and cross-border movements. 1. A Slow Start to the 2004/05 Agricultural Season The 2004/05 agricultural season began in May with low to moderate rainfall localized in the agricultural region. This precipitation was the forerunner of a slow yet normal start to the season, which is expected to really get underway during the first dekad of June. Satellite rainfall estimates (RFE) on May 20, 2004, showed favorable conditions in the extreme western part of the country between the twelfth and fifteenth parallels of latitude in the Tillabéri and Dosso Regions, and in the south central part of the country in the Tahoua and Maradi Regions. Some areas, localized in the Abalak and Bilma departments, received heavy rains (Chart 1). The recorded rainfall was sufficient to allow 1,791 villages, or 18% of the country’s agricultural villages, to begin planting. In these areas, millet is in the emergent stage, except in Dosso, where the predominant stage is late emergence. The number of villages that have planted, which is 49% higher than last year at this time, is for the moment not as important in determining the eventual outcome of the agricultural season as the changing weather conditions over the coming weeks. A USAID project managed by Chemonics International Inc. Niamey, Villa no. 51 USAID/FEWS NET Niger Telephone 227 73 41 20 Fax 227 73 41 18 quartier Terminus 2 Table 1: Status of Planting Total No. of Villages That Have Planted Departments Remarks Villages 2004 2003 DIFF. Agadez 217 0 0 0 Diffa 559 0 0 0 Dosso 1,384 501 226 275 All departments Maradi 2,181 137 214 -77 Aguié and Madarounfa Tahoua 1,388 69 60 +9 Konni and Madaoua Tillabéri 1,658 526 137 389 Except for Ouallam and the Municipality of Tillabéri Zinder 2,685 537 559 -22 Gouré, Magaria, Mirriah and Tanout Niamey Urban 21 21 4 17 Community TOTAL NIGER 10,093 1,791 1,200 591 Source: SSA/DCV/MDA 2. Deterioration of Food Conditions in Poor Outlying Areas The onset of the agricultural season will further improve a food situation that is already considered by all of the food security stakeholders in Niger to be particularly favorable for rural and urban households. In May, the beginning of the rainy season noticeably improved conditions for watering animals and food conditions in poor households, thanks to the relative availability of water in some ponds, and of leaves and wild fruits. If the rainfall continues, people holding reserves, including merchants and cooperatives, could decide to sell them, thus increasing the supply and lowering further already affordable prices. The persistence of the favorable Graphique 2: Situation des semis, des criquets et de la vulnerabilite conditions, despite the seasonal Legende deterioration of household food sources Departements a semis partiels during the pre-harvest period, is Zones de developpement du criquet pelerin corroborated by the results of an Zone des derniers developpements du criquet pelerin evaluation conducted by the Early Sources potentielles d'invasion du criquet pelerin Warning System (EWS) and its regional t® Departements moyennement vulnerables branches, in cooperation with its partners, including FEWS NET Niger. According to the consensual estimates, no department is Maghreb ARLIT t® BILMA in a situation of extreme food insecurity. t® Air The moderate food insecurity affecting Tamesna seventeen departments (Chart 2) is Mauritanie Air versant Est versant Air Air versant Ouest versant Air consistent with normal expectations Tabelot de l'Afrique Corne during this pre-harvest period in most of TCHIROZERINE the areas concerned. TCHINTABARADEN t® NGUIGMI GOURE TANOUT TAHOUA DAKORO OUALLAM t® t® t® FILINGUE MAYAHI t® MIRRIAH Some locales within the departments, TERA t® MAINESOROA KOLLO LOGA MADAROUNFA t® SAY ® MAGARIA including Bagaroua (Illéla/Tahoua), Dallol t® BOBOYEt t® t® DOSSO (Filingué/Tillabéri), Djirataoua GAYA (Marounfa/Maradi) and the outlying areas of cities, which are marginalized with 0 400 800 1,200 respect to the current overall food-security Kilometers evaluation system, are experiencing ± normal seasonal deterioration in access to food and income for poor households. Sources: DPV; SSA/DCV/MDA; Carte: FEWS NET 3 In the poor, outlying Koira Tiégui area north of Niamey, the deterioration of household food security is reflected in high expenditures for food, taking into account family reserves and the heavy dependence of income on vegetable crops that are increasingly uncertain at this time of year (Chart 3). Chart 3: Food Situation in the Poor Households of Koira Tégui Income sources for poor households Expenses for poor households in the outlying village of Koira Tegui in the outlying village of Koira Tegui 100% 100% 90% 90% 80% 80% 70% 70% 60% 60% 50% 50% 40% 40% 30% 30% 20% 20% 10% 10% 0% 0% Off-season products Sale of animals Food and condiments Ceremonies Sale of labor Fruit products Clothing Schooling for children Emigration Loans Animals used for food Source: FEWS NET Added to the structural difficulties related to the marginal position of households from poor areas in urban African economies are the normal seasonal trends, including, for instance, the normal May increase in food prices and the approaching end of the off-season vegetable crops that up to this point have constituted an appreciable source of food and income. At the same time, the city offers economic opportunities from which every possible advantage is drawn by Koira Tiégui’s households in order to temporarily alleviate their situation. Financial resources, most of which are intended for the purchase of food, are mobilized on a daily basis through the sale of sand and gravel for the construction of houses for city residents, the sale of labor in the city, and the sale of mangoes on Niamey’s urban markets. 4 3. The Markets Chart 4a: Year-to-Year Changes in Millet Prices: May 2000-2004 Despite increased demand from households purchasing food for consumption, and the 250 traditional pressure exerted by Nigerian merchants, prices have remained relatively 200 stable in May. Fluid domestic and cross- border trade has helped keep prices at a level that guarantees households relatively good 150 access to cereals. 100 The market value of millet is 31% lower than FCFA/kg in 2002, 11% lower than in 2003 (both were surplus years), and 15% lower than the 50 average for the past five years (Charts 4a and 4b). 0 5-year 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 avg. 4. The Locust Threat National avg. 116 179 183 143 127 149 Maradi 110 172 163 123 120 138 A combination of circumstances is Niamey 114 189 183 150 129 153 contributing to a recent increase in the risk of Tillaberi 108 172 178 155 119 146 widespread infestation of young crops by Zinder 130 183 207 143 139 160 desert locusts, which is increasing the risk of Source: SIMA, Chart: FEWS NET reduced yields. Recent developments include accelerated locust reproduction and the Chart 4b: Monthly Changes in Millet Prices: migration of adults toward the south in the January - May 2004 Tabelot and Air Regions, with the corollary that they will probably devastate the vegetable 160 crops on which the region’s households 140 depend for survival. The risk remains that 120 species from the Maghreb and the Horn of Africa will migrate into Niger. That would 100 make an already serious national situation 80 even worse and would lead to a massive FCFA/kg 60 insect assault on the crops in coming weeks. Faced such a large threat, all parties involved 40 with food security, including the national 20 authorities, are continuing to mobilize and 0 take mitigating action (surveys, treatments); Jan Feb Mar Apr May however, they are still confronted with Maradi Niamey Tillabery Zinder National avg. significant inadequacies in terms of financial and logistical resources. Source: SIMA, Chart: FEWS NET .