On the Eve of the Parliamentary Elections, Trust in Institutions and the Political Elite in General Plummeted

On the eve of the parliamentary elections, trust in institutions and the political elite in general plummeted. The scandal related to the election of a constitutional judge eroded further the authority of the National As- sembly, which is currently one of the institutions with the lowest approval rating in the country. The low level of trust in institutions and politicians is a premise for a rise in the populist mood in the country and, as a conse- quence, for a strong protest vote in the elections. The split in the UDF ended the tension that had been lingering for over a year between the two wings of the party. Notwithstanding the UDF split, the Blue Coalition still exists as a party project. The creation of the Unity National Union by the group of Martin Dimitrov and Nadezhda Neinski, and the talks which were started with DSB and other right-wing parties will most probably result in the signing of a coalition agreement expanding the format of the Blue Coalition. “Ataka” keeps amplifying its radical nationalist rhetoric, which indicates that one of the main clashes in the upcoming elections will be along the lines of nationalism. “Ataka” attempts to take maximum advantage of events like the terrorist act in Sarafovo, the trial for radical Islam in Pazardjik or the MRF stance on the Balkan War. The referendum on the development of nuclear energy in Bulgaria is the BSP’s major priority in the coming month; it will serve as a general rehearsal for the parliamentary elections. The party will try to mobilize the voters’ body en masse, notwithstanding the expected low turnout. B AROMETE R 4/2012 1

Contents

1. The political situation ...... 2 2. Characteristics and development of the party system...... 5 2.1. Tendencies in the right-wing party space...... 5 2.1.1. GERB...... 5 2.1.2. UDF and DSB...... 5 2.1.3. “Ataka”...... 7 2.1.4. OLJ...... 7 2.2. Tendencies in the parliamentary opposition: the left-of-center spectrum...... 8 2.2.1. BSP...... 8 2.2.2. MRF...... 9 3. Public opinion...... 9 4. General conclusions and forecasts...... 10 2 B AROMETE R 4/2012

1. The political situation of disregard for direct democracy and the people’s voice. The Blue Coalition was ada- The political situation over the last quarter was mant that the Belene NPP was not profitable particularly dynamic and imbued with tension and should not be implemented while the and conflict. The petition for a referendum on question itself was untenable and unconsti- the construction of the Belene Nuclear Plant tutional. “Ataka” stated that it supported (NPP), initiated by BSP, provoked disputes the construction of the Belene NPP and did among the political parties in the country. The not believe the question should be re-word- argument was over the BSP request to have ed since the people had signed already un- the referendum question repeat the wording der the petition wording. The MRF were also of the petition question: “Should Bulgaria de- of the view that the question should remain velop nuclear energy by constructing a nucle- as submitted by BSP. ar power plant on the Belene site?” GERB changed their initial decision to sup- A number of jurists and politicians from port the BSP question and tabled their own different political parties were doubtful as proposal for a referendum with the following to whether this wording of the question question: “Do you support the development was in line with the Constitution, since the of nuclear energy in Bulgaria by constructing a construction of any investment project was new nuclear power plant?” This wording was within the prerogatives of the executive approved by the National Assembly with the power rather than in the competences of the votes of GERB. The BSP refused to take part in National Assembly. the vote and stated that it supplanted the will The Act on the direct participation of citi- of over 700,000 citizens who had signed the zens in government and local government petition. Following the decision of the National stipulates that national referenda may be held Assembly, President Plevneliev issued a decree only on matters within the competence of the timing the referendum for January 27, 2013. National Assembly. According to the Act, in order for the ref- President Plevneliev initiated consulta- erendum to be valid, the number of voters tions with the parliamentary political parties should equal the number of those who partic- with a view to reaching consensus on the ipated in the last elections, and half of them question of the referendum. The President should have voted in favor. Many believe that suggested that the question should read: this level of turnout is highly unlikely. If over “Shall we develop nuclear energy by build- 20% of eligible voters were to take part in ing new capacities?” He believed this to be the referendum, however, and half of them the correct question of principle, which re- supported the proposal, the matter would be moved any doubts as to its constitutional- decided definitively by the National Assembly ity. The BSP did not accept the wording and in a period of three months. claimed that their question corresponded to The election of a member of the Constitu- the requirements of the Constitution. tional Court from the National Assembly quo- At the consultations with the President ta provoked a powerful public and political GERB stated that they would support the reaction. Judge Veneta Markovska from the BSP question in spite of its non-constitution- Supreme Administrative Court was elected ality. The ruling party explained it with the to the Constitutional Court with the votes of concern that if they decided to change the GERB, the MRF and several MPs from the “Co- question they would be accused by the BSP alition for Bulgaria” parliamentary faction. B AROMETE R 4/2012 3

Markovska was nominated by independent followed to cancel Markovska’s election and parliamentarians who had declared allegiance a new procedure was started for the election to GERB. Her election took place in spite of a of a constitutional judge. written warning accusing her of power -bro- There is one more important election kerage addressed to the Legal Affairs Com- that has drawn public attention during the mittee of the National Assembly. A reaction past month. One of the first major tasks of of the European Commission followed. EC the newly elected Supreme Judicial Council Spokesperson Olivier Bailly stated that the EC (SJC) is the election of a new Prosecutor Gen- was seriously concerned about Markovska’s eral. President Plevneliev had already nomi- election because of doubts regarding corrup- nated the outgoing Prosecutor General Boris tion and power-brokerage, which were disre- Velchev, whose term was to expire in January garded by the National Assembly. Olivier Bailly 2013, as constitutional judge from the Presi- also said that this case might bring about an dent’s quota. Upon assuming his new office, additional report on Bulgaria under the Coop- Velchev resigned as Prosecutor General. The eration and Verification Mechanism. Director of the National Investigation Ser- Following this statement, President Plev- vice Boiko Naidenov, who was one of Boris neliev was quick to express his concern over Velchev’s deputies, was selected as Prosecutor the reaction of Brussels and described it as a General ad interim. serious signal to be taken into account by the The SJC started the procedure for the Bulgarian institutions. election of a new Prosecutor General and The reaction of Bulgaria’s ruling establish- approved the election rules which prescribe ment was contradictory – some described Ol- electronic voting by the SJC members and ivier Bailly’s statement as an unofficial view, no paper ballot with the names of the can- others – like Foreign Minister Mladenov – as didates, as it used to be. This decision was interference in the country’s internal affairs. severely criticized by a number of NGOs, since When it became clear that this was the electronic voting does not guarantee a secret official position of Brussels, a hearing of Mar- ballot. It was also decided that the voting kovska took place in the Legal Affairs Com- shall not follow alphabetical order, but the mittee whereby she tried to exonerate herself order in which the nominations have come from the accusations against her. A letter in. This means that if the first nomination from the parliamentary Legal Affairs Commit- to be voted gets the necessary 17 votes, the tee Chairperson Iskra Fidosova to the Europe- remaining nominations shall not be put to a an Commission followed, whereby she practi- vote. This decision was also opposed by the cally defended Markovska’s election, stating Chairman of the Supreme Court of Cassation that Parliament had followed the established Lazar Gruev, who is an SJC member by rights. procedure and the election process was trans- Right after the new election rules were parent and legitimate. approved, several SJC members submitted Markovska refused to step back, regard- the nomination of the chairman of the Plo- less of even the Prime Minister’s public ap- vdiv District Court Sotir Tsatsarov. His name peals to do so. Finally the President interfered had appeared in the media a few months by declining to be present in the Constitu- earlier as GERB’s candidate for the posi- tional Court at her swearing in, which prac- tion of Prosecutor General. After Tsatsarov’s tically passed a censure on her taking the nomination, on several occasions Prime Min- office. A decision of the National Assembly ister Borisov and Interior Minister Tsvetanov 4 B AROMETE R 4/2012

gave a positive assessment of this nomina- confidentiality clauses, but that the price was tion publicly in the media. It raised doubts the lowest possible for countries that do not among the legal community that the new invest in the exploration of gas fields in Russia. election rules favor Tsatsarov. During the past quarter, parties from Two more nominations were submitted both sides of the political spectrum have for the position of Prosecutor General – of harshly criticized the position expressed by Deputy Prosecutor General Galina Toneva, the MRF regarding the Balkan War. On the endorsed by the prosecutors’ guild, and of occasion of the centennial commemoration Borislav Sarafov who heads the Specialized of the Balkan War, the MRF-dominated Mu- Prosecution of Appeal. nicipal Council of Kardjali refused to pro- President Rossen Plevneliev pointed out claim Honorary Citizen In Memoriam the that the election of a Prosecutor General is town liberator Gen. Vasil Delov. of crucial importance and he would care- Sharp reaction followed by GERB, the BSP fully oversee the process. By force of the and “Ataka” who described the MRF behav- Constitution, the President may veto the ior as provocative. The situation was aggra- Prosecutor General elected by the SJC, but vated further following a statement by the he can do so just once. If the nomination is MRF leader Ahmed Dogan who qualified the voted again the President is obliged to is- Balkan War as ethnic cleansing of the Turkish sue a decree to appoint the approved can- ethos in the liberated territories. Dogan de- didate. Plevneliev also stated that all candi- clared that a common review of the Balkan dates for the office of Prosecutor General War was necessary in order to reach a realistic should present clear concepts and defend assessment of its importance. them publicly. He also spoke in favor of All of the above indicates that, as the transparent election rules. elections draw closer, the nationalist politi- The strong pressure regarding the ques- cal language will grow harsher. This is also tionable election rules may lead to their re- evidenced by the strong reactions regarding consideration by the SJC in order to avoid the trial in Pazardjik against the 13 imams ac- the risk of an illegitimate election of the cused of preaching radical Islam. The MRF de- Prosecutor General, given the close attention scribed the trial as politically motivated, while in this matter on the part of the European the nationalists from VMRO and “Ataka” institutions as well. stated that radical Islam was on the rise in the In mid-November Gazprom and the Bul- country and represented a national security garian Energy Holding signed an investment threat. At the same time, rallies and protests, decision for the construction of the South organized both by the Muslim community Stream project though Bulgaria’s territory. and by the nationalists, took place in front of Gazprom and Bulgargaz also signed the new the court-house in Pazardjik. long-term contract for the supply of natural The Sarafovo suicide bombing intensified gas. Prime Minister Borisov announced that further the fears of an enhanced terrorist threat the lowest possible price was negotiated. In his in the country. The government is still cautious view, there will be a more than 20% drop in in naming the perpetrators, since there is no the gas price as of January 2013. It is a ten-year conclusive evidence so far to this effect. It was contract. Prime Minister Borisov also said that announced, however, that progress had been he was not in a position to announce the ne- made in the investigation and that the terrorist gotiated gas price because of the contractual act was prepared outside Bulgaria. B AROMETE R 4/2012 5

2. Characteristics and development Vyara Petrova, an MP from GERB, re- of the party system signed from Parliament and as the party’s municipal coordinator in the town of Kar- 2.1. Tendencies in the right-wing nobat. The reason was that in a letter to party space the temporary parliamentary committee on high-level corruption BSP parliamentarians 2.1.1. GERB blew the whistle on her about a conflict of During the last quarter changes have oc- interest She was blamed for exerting pres- curred in a number of GERB party organi- sure on the Bourgas regional labor bureau zations. The Regional Governor of Plovdiv, to grant her husband’s company vouchers Zdravko Dimitrov, became the new GERB to the amount of BGN 200,000 under the coordinator for the region, replacing the Human Resources Development Program. deputy Dimitar Lazarov. The replacement There was yet another accusation from a was caused by the loss of the by-election in different source implicating Vyara Petrova’s Kalofer, where the GERB candidate for may- mother in gaining exuberant sums of mon- or got just 42 votes and the BSP candidate ey under different European programs. The won the election by over 90%. Commission for Prevention and Ascertain- The GERB regional coordinator in Kyus- ment of Conflict of Interest will also look tendil was also replaced because the party into this case. sustained a dramatic loss in the municipal The GERB Euro-parliamentarian Emil elections last summer. The previous coordina- Stoyanov, brother of former President Pe- tor, MP Valentin Mikev, was replaced with an- tar Stoyanov, resigned as MEP. The official other parliamentarian from GERB, Kiril Kalfin. motives for the resignation were personal The most significant replacement of a re- and family reasons. His seat in the Europe- gional party coordinator happened in Sofia, an Parliament was taken by the deputy and where one of the most influential GERB activ- chairperson of the GERB youth organization ists, the ex-chairman of the Sofia Municipal Monika Panayotova. Council Andrey Ivanov resigned. In a letter to Rumyana Zheleva was nominated again the GERB leadership he explained his decision by GERB as deputy-chair of the European with “a desire to prevent prejudiced political People’s Party but was not re-elected. She re- speculations with his name in the upcoming ceived 266 votes at the EPP congress in Bu- election campaign by political parties as a com- charest and took the penultimate 12th place. pensation for the lack of arguments.” Over recent years Andrey Ivanov’s name was scan- 2.1.2. UDF and DSB dalously implicated on several occasions in a During the past quarter the symptoms of a conflict of interest, which Ivanov continues to split in the UDF, which first appeared at the deny. Ivanov’s seat was taken by the party’s ad- beginning of the year, reached their logical ministrative secretary Tsvetomir Paunov. outcome. Many of the iconic figures of the Changes also occurred in GERB’s parlia- party and its parliamentarians were either ex- mentary faction. The GERB MP Menda Stoya- pelled or left the UDF. nova, Chairman of the Budget Committee, This happened after a series of scandals was elected Deputy Chairperson of the Na- which culminated in Boiko Borisov’s offer to tional Assembly to replace Anastas Anastasov, the UDF to nominate the new constitutional who became constitutional judge. judge from the parliamentary quota. 6 B AROMETE R 4/2012

When the nominated judge Veneta Mar- In early December the politicians who kovska lost public credit, the Prime Minister quit the UDF started a new civic alliance, the and GERB leader Boiko Borisov declared that “Unity” National Union, which will work for his party would support any UDF nomination the unification of the traditional right-wing for constitutional judge. The UDF leadership parties. This alliance was actually first set up responded with the nomination of former by Martin Dimitrov and Nadezhda Neinski as President Petar Stoyanov. a faction in the UDF but the National Council Not a single UDF parliamentarian from of the party did not grant it official status, the Blue Coalition agreed, however, to put despite the party statutes allowing for it. forward that nomination in the National As- The main goal of the new alliance is to sembly, the main reason being that GERB build a united right-wing party based on was attempting to shift onto the UDF the the Blue Coalition. Nadezhda Neinski de- responsibility for Veneta Markovska’s failed clared that she had been authorized by the election. The “blue” MPs stated that Petar 70 founding members of the alliance to hold Stoyanov was not the candidate of the UDF talks for the continuation of the Blue Coali- but of GERB. The “Blue Coalition” also stated tion project. that, had GERB been sincere towards them, The representatives of the former UDF it would have supported the nomination for youth organization are among the founders constitutional judge of Ekaterina Mihailova of the “Unity” National Union. The former from DSB right away, at the time of the first youth leader of the UDF, Hristo Panchugov, election round. said that the founders of the new alliance With the UDF parliamentarians refusing to were guided by the conviction that “more sponsor Petar Stoyanov’s nomination, he an- than ever before, the country needs a modern nounced that he could not accept the nomi- authentic right”. nation because of a number of international Nadezhda Neinski underlined that the up- commitments he had undertaken and could coming talks for the creation of the united not give up. right-wing party would be conducted with Following the failure of Petar Stoyanov’s the leadership of the Democrats for Strong nomination, the UDF leadership called an ex- Bulgaria party, as well as with other smaller traordinary National Council session, which right-wing parties. According to her, the dif- resulted in expulsion from the party of MPs ferences with the UDF consist in the opposing Martin Dimitrov, Vanyo Sharkov and Dimo views regarding the past and what path to Gyaurov on the grounds of lowering the pres- take in the future. tige of the party with their conduct and public Neinski believes that “setting up joint rul- statements. Immediately after the expulsion ing political bodies in a new agreement will of the three MPs more UDF politicians left be a step forward.” the party. The first one was MEP Nadezhda In early December the DSB held the par- Neinski and the other UDF parliamentarians. ty’s 10th National Convention. It adopted a Party organizations from around the country, resolution regarding the party’s participation such as those in the towns of Svishtov and Ve- in the elections next year. It says that the liko Tarnovo, also announced that they were DSB’s main goal is “to take the country out leaving the UDF. Other local organizations are of the economic crisis, to terminate criminal also expected to quit, as the leadership of the behavior and misuse of the monopolies, to party youth organization has already done. restore the Bulgarians’ trust in the state and B AROMETE R 4/2012 7 to secure jobs, prosperity and security for It is evident that during the election cam- the citizens.” The DSB declared their readi- paign next year “Ataka” will interpret every ness to keep and develop the Blue Coali- issue through a nationalist perspective. tion in order to achieve genuine unification Relations between “Ataka” and VMRO are of “the democratic voices in opposition to growing closer. Most probably early next year GERB, with the aim of preventing the sup- the two parties will sign a coalition agreement. planting of the right.” The main DSB docu- It is possible that other nationalist formations ment makes it clear that “there will be no join them. Talks to that effect are taking place coalition with the BSP and the MRF under now, which shows that there may be a broad- any circumstances” and that the DSB will er alliance of nationalist organizations for the participate in the elections as a categorical elections next year, with a greater chance of opposition to GERB and “the sole right al- exceeding the 4% threshold. ternative to their post-communism.” In early December “Ataka” published a The party forum nominated the leaders draft of their election program, where the of the party ballot tickets for the elections. party’s Euro- skepticism comes to the fore- Ivan Kostov will lead the party tickets of ground. It reads that “The EU is a threat to the 23rd electoral district in Sofia and the democracy and the national sovereignty of electoral district of the town of Plovdiv. the member-states” and that it is a “Soviet The chairman of the Sofia party organiza- Union reborn”. According to “Ataka”, Bul- tion Ivan Ivanov will be the leader on the garia is threatened with loss of identity and tickets for the 24th electoral district in So- fading away unless the EU institutional frame- fia and the city of Stara Zagora. Ekaterina work is modified. Mihailova will also lead two electoral tick- “Ataka” also proposes the dissolution of ets – for the 25th electoral district in Sofia all concession contracts with foreign com- and the town of Shumen. The leaders for panies and the nationalization of the electric all electoral districts were nominated. The power providers. Another idea of the party is DSB campaign manager Veselin Metodiev an increase of the minimum monthly wage to explained that the tickets may have to be BGN 1000 and of the lowest pension to BGN rearranged later to reckon with the unifi- 500, without suggesting any financial sources cation of the traditional right in the Blue for such increases. Coalition format. 2.1.4. OLJ 2.1.3. “Ataka” At the beginning of November the OLJ led by During the past quarter “Ataka” has intensi- Yane Yanev and the Liberal Alliance party of the fied its radical nationalist rhetoric. As already pharmaceutics businessman Veselin Mareshki mentioned, it was triggered by the lawsuit in signed a coalition agreement to run jointly in Pazardjik and the MRF stance on the Balkan the upcoming parliamentary elections. The War. On several occasions “Ataka” came out new coalition positioned itself as right-of-cen- with declarations of protest in the National ter and patriotic. Its main priorities will be the Assembly condemning the conduct of the reforms in the health-care sector and the re- MRF. Moreover, the party submitted a pro- tirement system, as well as cheaper drugs. posal to President Plevneliev for changing the Yanev defined the BSP, the “Bulgaria of name of the town of Kardjali to the name of the Citizens” Movement and the MRF as Gen. Vasil Delov. the main opponents of the new coalition. 8 B AROMETE R 4/2012

He further outlined as his personal political 2.2. Tendencies in the parliamentary goal to stop Meglena Kuneva from attaining opposition: the left-of-center spectrum a position in government and hence “sup- plant the priorities of the state”. 2.2.1. BSP Mareshki explained the decision about During the past quarter the BSP has intensified the coalition with Yanev with the motive that its opposition rhetoric. Sergei Stanishev’s elec- “the OLJ is a party that has never been part tion as the PES leader has impacted positively of the government of the country and is not, both on his own approval rating as a politician therefore, accountable for its condition”. In and the BSP as a party. This was registered by his view the OLJ was the only party waging a several polling agencies, which also recorded a real fight against corruption. lessening gap between GERB and BSP. The OLJ leader also stated that if the At the beginning of December the BSP new coalition would have a say in the next held a session of its National Council, which government, one of the goals would be “to scheduled the 48th congress of the party on hold responsible those who drained the re- February 16. Sergei Stanishev outlined as a sources of the state”. Yanev promised that main goal of the upcoming election the oust- the coalition party ticket would not contain ing of GERB from power. Stanishev also de- a single minister or deputy minister from the clared that Bulgaria needed a new perspec- entire transition period. The OLJ leader an- tive as a democratic, competitive and social nounced that before them lay “a major and European state. sacred cause” – “to commit to history this The BSP leader pointed out that the GERB vicious post-totalitarian model” and “put an government had turned “Bulgaria into a end to the period of transition”. According ghetto of poverty, a police state controlling to Yanev, this could only happen by conven- all the institutions and the judiciary.” After ing a Constituent Assembly and adopting a the elections, according to Stanishev, the BSP new constitution of the country. and the people will be able to build together Following the split in the UDF, the Yanev- a modern economy and a free society. Mareshki coalition launched an appeal to During the National Council session deputy right voters to join them. The main message Yanaki Stoilov laid emphasis on the importance of the appeal is the need for a strong and of the upcoming referendum for the elections. united right which can oppose an eventual He pointed out the need to mobilize all citi- mandate of “the new three-party coalition zens, not just the BSP members and support- of the BSP, the MRF and Kuneva”. Yanev and ers, to cast their vote. In his view, this would Mareshki point out in their appeal that 23 be decisive for the party’s performance in the years after the changes “the blue idea is in elections. Stoilov stated that the GERB govern- collapse”. They sustain that the right needs a ment would be held accountable politically for new political concept, which will be “a coun- having stopped the Belene NPP project. In his terpoint to hitherto corrupt practices, crimi- view, the participation and the result of the ref- nal privatization and a battle to appease the erendum might provide a powerful signal for ego of a handful of party bosses.” They also a change in the government of the country. call on all past leaders of the right, former Stoilov suggested that BSP demanded the na- ministers and nomenclature cadres partici- tionalization of the electric power distributing pating in the government of the country to companies, thus enabling the country to trade retire from political life. in electric power without intermediaries. B AROMETE R 4/2012 9

During the past quarter BSP has launched formed by Kassim Dahl and Korman Ismailov one more time the idea of abolishing the – the “Freedom and Dignity” People’s Party 10% flat tax and introducing progressive in- (FDPP). At the party’s constituent congress come taxation. The socialists maintain that Kassim Dahl pointed out that the FDPP was the people with higher income should bear a based on the values of human life, freedom greater burden of solidarity in the crisis. and dignity, which had become question- At the end of the year, BSP started cam- able in the years of transition. Dahl indicated paigning more vigorously for the referendum also that the new party was not duplicating on the construction of a new nuclear power a similar attempt made by the splinter group plant. The party declared that this was going of Osman Oktai and Guner Tahir who left the to be its main priority next month. MRF a decade earlier because “these people are secret service agents like Ahmed Dogan.” 2.2.2. MRF The FDPP shall stand for improving the At the end of November, the MRF youth orga- quality of life of the Bulgarian citizens, for nization – YMRF – held its sixth national con- overcoming “poverty and misery by achieving ference and elected a new leader, Ilhan Kiu- free and just human life.” chuk. The past YMRF leader Djeihan Ibryamov Korman Ismailov was elected chairman withdrew because he had turned 35. The of the new “Freedom and Dignity” People’s conference was attended by 379 delegates. Party. Members of the leadership also are The YMRF is the largest youth organization Kassim Dahl, Dr. Miuesser Solak, Vesselin in Europe, with more than 20,000 members. Penev, Orhan Koshudju, Kristian Yonchev, During the past quarter it has become Mithat Mehmed, Ognyan Isaev, Kemal clear that the MRF will start party organiza- Tinev, Dr. Emilia Tosheva, Tassim Tassim and tions abroad – in Spain and in Brussels, where Mustafa Mustafa. the party has thousands of supporters. Ac- A congratulatory address by Prime Minis- cording to MRF data, more than 150,000 ter Erdogan was read out at the constituent people from the regions of mixed population congress. have left the country in the past year. As mentioned already, the MRF qualified 3. Public Opinion the trial against the 13 imams in Pazardjik as political and declared its intention to approach According to a November survey of the Na- the European institutions in this regard. The tional Center for Public Opinion Research congress of the European Liberals and Demo- (NCPOR) the electoral difference between crats for Europe (ELDE) adopted, on the MRF GERB and BSP continues to shrink. GERB re- initiative, a resolution condemning “the sub- mains the first political force, with the support version of religious peace by excessive and of 24.5% of the voters. Compared to Septem- unfounded charges against Bulgarian citizens ber, however, the support for the ruling party officially representing the Muslim creed.” has gone down by 2%. BSP is supported by In early December the MRF announced 19% of the voters, which amounts to a 1.5% consultations in the National Assembly for increase over the past two months. initiating yet another non-confidence vote According to the survey, the MRF and against Borisov’s government. Meglena Kuneva’s “Bulgaria of the Citi- A major challenge the MRF is faced with zens” are certain to make it into the next on the eve of the elections is the new party Parliament. The two parties have almost 10 B AROMETE R 4/2012

equal positions – 6.4% would vote for the of the National Assembly is down by 5% MRF and 6.2% - for the “Bulgaria of the since September, while disapproval is up by Citizens” party. Kuneva’s party, though, has the same percentage. added 2% of support since September. The approval of the government is also The NCPOR survey appraises the support going down. Just one third of the vot- for the traditional right parties of the Blue ers, 29%, appraise the executive positively, Coalition format (DSB and UDF). The coali- which is 2% less than in September. The dis- tion has the support of 3.6 % of Bulgarians approval of the government is twice as high but the two parties will not run as a coalition, as the approval – 57%. especially after the split in the UDF. Thus the As regards the upcoming referendum chances of the traditional right entering the on the construction of a new nuclear power next National Assembly remain uncertain. plant, the NCPOS shows that 62.5% of po- “Ataka” gets the support of 3% of tential voters will vote in favor and 37.5% will the respondents, which shows that it has vote against. a realistic chance of overcoming the 4% threshold, especially in a coalition with 4. General conclusions and forecasts Karakachanov’s VMRO. The NMSS, OLJ and VMRO register sup- 1. The developments of the past quarter are port of around 1%. symptomatic of a confrontational election The list of the most approved politicians in campaign in 2013. Tensions between the rul- Bulgaria is headed by President Rossen Plev- ing party and the opposition are growing. neliev who has the approval of 52%, followed On the eve of the elections the level of by the Minister of Regional Development Lily- trust in the institutions and the political elite ana Pavlova approved by 50% of the voters. in general is critically low. The scandalous inci- Prime Minister Borisov comes third with 43% dent with the election of a constitutional judge approval rating but 49% disapproval. undermined further the National Assembly’s NCPOS data indicate that the BSP Chair- reputation and it has become one of the most man Sergei Stanishev continues to be the disapproved institutions of the country. most approved leader of a parliamentary fac- The low level of trust in institutions is a tion, with a rating of 28%. His election to the premise for an escalation of the populist PES presidency impacted his image positively. mood in the country and it may provoke a The leaders of the remaining political strong protest vote in the elections. factions keep the typical levels of support. 2. The downward trend in the support The UDF Chairman Emil Kabaivanov is un- for GERB has continued during the past known to over 80%, as a result of which his quarter and the difference with its main op- approval is just 2%. ponent, BSP, is diminishing. The reasons for Since the start of the summer there has it are multi-faceted – on the one hand, the been a downward tendency in the approv- economic crisis in the country has increased al of Parliament and the government, with the discontent of a large part of the popula- growing disapproval. In early November the tion and, on the other hand, the conflicting respondents who negatively appraised Par- decisions and reactions of the party regard- liament were four times more than those ing the nomination and the election of con- who believed that the institution was work- stitutional judges increased the perceptions ing well (68% to 17%). The approval rating about behind-the-scenes arrangements, B AROMETE R 4/2012 11 which put off the voters. Another reason for 5. The coalition between the OLJ and the the diminishing trust is the failed reforms in party of the businessman Vesselin Mareshki is health care, education, and the retirement the next populist project which will take part in and the administrative systems. the elections next year. Many describe this coali- GERB’s major challenge in the coming tion as a GERB-sponsored project. Yane Yanev months is whether or not they will manage continues to rely on negative PR to discredit the to reverse the trend of dropping electoral political opponents of the ruling party. During support. the past months, a number of his media ap- 3. The split in the UDF ended the lingering pearances were focused on vehement criticism tension between the two wings of the party of Meglena Kuneva and her party “Bulgaria of during the past year. The expulsion of the UDF the Citizens” Movement. This trend is likely to deputies from the party indicated that the UDF continue during the election campaign. risks capsulation and isolation. The claims that 6. The referendum on nuclear power in the UDF is increasingly becoming GERB’s min- Bulgaria is the BSP’s main priority for the next ion seem more and more credible, especially month and will serve as a general rehearsal for after the attempt at nominating Petar Stoya- the elections. The party will strive to mobilize nov for a constitutional judge. The party leader the largest possible number of voters, regard- Kabaivanov continues to be unidentifiable na- less of the expectations for a low turn-out. tionally, as evidenced by the polls. At the elections, the BSP will run in the Notwithstanding the split in the UDF, the “Coalition for Bulgaria” format and it is not Blue Coalition continues to exist as a party to be excluded that it may reach out to other project. left, centrist and social-democratic parties to The creation of the “Unity” National Union join the coalition. These intentions have al- by the group of Martin Dimitrov and Nadezhda ready been declared at several party forums. Neinski, and the initiated talks with the DSB Reference needs to be made, however, to and other right parties will probably soon lead some extreme left proposals launched by rep- to the signing of a coalition agreement for ex- resentatives of the party, such as the idea to panding the format of the Blue Coalition. nationalize the electric power providers. 4. ‘Ataka’ has intensified further its na- 7. The exacerbated political discourse of tionalist rhetoric, which shows that one of the MRF provoked the response of the na- the major clashes during the upcoming elec- tionalist formations. Ahmed Dogan’s public tion campaign will be along the lines of na- statement on the nature of the Balkan War tionalism. The terrorist act in Sarafovo, the increased the critical attitude to the MRF. This, trial against the radical Islamists in Pazardjik, however, served to consolidate and mobilize and the MRF position on the Balkan War are the party’s electorate. events that ‘Ataka’ tries to use fully to its own 8. Meglena Kuneva’s “Bulgaria of the Citi- advantage. The latest polls indicate that the zens” Movement continues to affirm its elec- trust in ‘Ataka’ is growing. An eventual coali- toral standing. The latest polls show a certain tion with VMRO and other nationalist orga- increase in the support for the party. Kuneva de- nizations enhance ‘Ataka’’s chances of being clines at this point to answer the question about represented for a third consecutive time in the eventual coalition partners after the elections. National Assembly. A more intense nationalist She declared one more time that she was run- rhetoric may, however, exacerbate ethnic ten- ning on her own in the elections and will not be sions in the country. part of any political dealings and arrangements. 12 B AROMETE R 4/2012

About the editor:

Professor, Doctor of Philosophy, Georgi Kara- simeonov teaches in the ‘St. Kliment of Ohrid’ University of Sofia; he is he is the director of the Institute of Political and Legal Studies and is editor-in-chief of the Political Surveys Maga- zine. He was chairman of the Bulgarian Asso- ciation of Political Science from 1991 till 1998. Contact: [email protected] On the eve of the parliamentary elections, trust in institutions and the political elite in general plummeted. The scandal related to the election of a constitutional judge eroded further the authority of the National As- sembly, which is currently one of the institutions with the lowest approval rating in the country. The low level of trust in institutions and politicians is a premise for a rise in the populist mood in the country and, as a conse- quence, for a strong protest vote in the elections. The split in the UDF ended the tension that had been lingering for over a year between the two wings of the party. Notwithstanding the UDF split, the Blue Coalition still exists as a party project. The creation of the Unity National Union by the group of Martin Dimitrov and Nadezhda Neinski, and the talks which were started with DSB and other right-wing parties will most probably result in the signing of a coalition agreement expanding the format of the Blue Coalition. “Ataka” keeps amplifying its radical nationalist rhetoric, which indicates that one of the main clashes in the upcoming elections will be along the lines of nationalism. “Ataka” attempts to take maximum advantage of events like the terrorist act in Sarafovo, the trial for radical Islam in Pazardjik or the MRF stance on the Balkan War. The referendum on the development of nuclear energy in Bulgaria is the BSP’s major priority in the coming month; it will serve as a general rehearsal for the parliamentary elections. The party will try to mobilize the voters’ body en masse, notwithstanding the expected low turnout.