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Measuring Financial Integration in New Eu Member States OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES NO 81 /MARCH 2008 MEASURING FINANCIAL INTEGRATION IN NEW EU MEMBER STATES byMarkus Baltzer,LorenzoCappiello, RobertoA.DeSantis,and Simone Manganelli OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES NO 81 / MARCH 2008 MEASURING FINANCIAL INTEGRATION IN NEW EU MEMBER STATES by Markus Baltzer, Lorenzo Cappiello, Roberto A. De Santis, and Simone Manganelli1, 2 In 2008 all ECB publications This paper can be downloaded without charge from feature a motif taken from the http://www.ecb.europa.eu or from the Social Science Research Network €10 banknote. electronic library at http://ssrn.com/abstract_id=1084908. 1 Cappiello, De Santis and Manganelli are with the European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany. Email: [email protected], tel: +49-69 1344 8765; [email protected], tel: +49-69 1344 6611; [email protected], tel: +49 69 1344 7347. Baltzer is with Deutsche Bundesbank, email: [email protected], tel: +49 69 9566 8473. 2 We thank Philipp Hartmann for valuable comments. Of course, remaining errors are ours alone. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the European Central Bank or the Eurosystem. © European Central Bank 2008 Address Kaiserstrasse 29 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany Postal address Postfach 16 03 19 60066 Frankfurt am Main Germany Telephone +49 69 1344 0 Website http://www.ecb.europa.eu Fax +49 69 1344 6000 All rights reserved. Any reproduction, publication or reprint in the form of a different publication, whether printed or produced electronically, in whole or in part, is permitted only with the explicit written authorisation of the ECB or the author(s). The views expressed in this paper do not necessarily refl ect those of the European Central Bank. ISSN 1607-1484 (print) ISSN 1725-6534 (online) CONTENTS CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 4 1 INTRODUCTION 5 2 MEASURES OF FINANCIAL INTEGRATION 7 2.1 Price-based measures 7 2.2 News-based measures 8 2.3 Quantity-based measures 10 3 MONEY MARKETS 12 4 GOVERNMENT BOND MARKETS 15 5 BANKING MARKETS 20 6 EQUITY MARKETS 27 7 CONCLUSION 31 REFERENCES 32 ECB Occasional Paper No 81 March 2008 3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY included in the analysis. However, after the entry in the European Union, the availability and In light of the recent accession of new countries reliability of data has been gradually improving. in the European Union (EU) and their future entry in the euro area, it has become increasingly The study considers three broad categories of important to follow developments in these financial integration measures: (i) price-based, markets. This study provides a comprehensive which capture discrepancies in asset prices across overview on the state of financial integration different national mar kets; (ii) news-based, which in the new EU Member States. These countries analyse the impact that common factors have on comprise the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, the return process of an asset; (iii) quantity-based, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, and Slovakia, which which aim at quantifying the effects of frictions joined the EU on 1 May 2004, and Romania and on the demand for and supply of securities. Bulgaria, which joined on 1 January 2007. Since the bulk of the analysis covers the period from This paper finds that financial markets in the 1996 until 2006, we also consider EU member new EU Member States (plus Cyprus, Malta states, Slovenia (which joined the euro area on and Slovenia) are significantly less integrated 1 January 2007), as well as Cyprus and Malta than those of the euro area. Nevertheless, there (which joined on 1 January 2008). is strong evidence that the process of integration is well under way and has accelerated since Monitoring these countries’ economies is not only accession to the EU. relevant from a policy-making point of view, but is also interesting in itself owing to their specific According to the indicators adopted in the paper, characteristics. For instance, on the real economy money and banking markets are becoming side, many of these countries went from being increasingly integrated both among themselves centrally planned economies, through market and vis-à-vis the euro area. However, it should be economies, to fully open economies, taking about noticed that the process of financial integration in twelve years to become members of a free trade the new EU Member States (plus Cyprus, Malta area. Moreover, these economies experienced and Slovenia) is probably driven by different very rapid development and liberalisation of their factors than those behind the euro area. The financial markets undergoing these changes at transition from planned to market economies roughly the same pace. Finally, since the new EU has led to rapid financial developments, which Member States will eventually join the euro area, has been further boosted by a strong foreign, it is important to monitor developments in their mainly EU, banking presence. For instance, the financial markets as well as links with the euro percentage of asset shares of foreign-owned banks area from a monetary policy perspective. (relative to total bank sector assets) increased from 30% in 1997 to around 75% in 2005. To assess the degree of financial integration of the new EU Member States (plus Cyprus, As for government bond markets, only the Malta and Slovenia), this paper adopts a largest economies (the Czech Republic, Poland methodology developed previously by Baele and to a lesser extent Hungary) exhibit signs of et al. (2004). Subject to data availability, this integration. These results need to be interpreted paper replicates the indicators used in that study. with caution, as the liquidity of the underlying This allows us to build on an already established markets may distort the measures. methodology and, at the same time, directly compare developments in the new EU Member Finally, the evidence for equities suggest a States (plus Cyprus, Malta and Slovenia) with relatively low level of integration. How ever, we those in the euro area. Some of the results we find that stock markets are increasingly affected obtain need to be interpreted with caution due by euro area shocks, espe cially after the accession the lower quality of some data for the countries date (May 2004). ECB Occasional Paper No 81 4 March 2008 1 INTRODUCTION 1 INTRODUCTION members of a free trade area. Moreover, these economies experienced very rapid development Developments in financial markets have shaped and liberalisation of their financial markets the economic and policy debate in recent years. undergoing these changes at roughly the same Financial integration issues have played an pace. Finally, since the new EU Member States important role in this debate, not least because a will eventually join the euro area, it is important well integrated financial system reduces the cost to monitor developments in their financial of capital and improves the effi cient allocation markets as well as links with the euro area from of financial resources. a monetary policy perspective. The European Central Bank (ECB) is closely The measures of financial integration adopted monitoring the state of integration of euro are based on the definition given by Baele et area financial markets (see, for instance, ECB al. (2004): the market for a given financial 2005a, 2006a and 2007). In the light of the instrument and/or service is considered fully recent accession of new countries to the EU integrated if all economic agents with the same and their future entry in the euro area, it has relevant characteristics acting in that market become increasingly important also to follow face a single set of rules, have equal access, and developments in these markets. Although a are treated equally. number of papers exist on this subject, they either focus on certain market segments, or follow While the above definition describes an ideal specific methodologies.1 Instead, this paper state of perfect integration and as such its follows very closely the framework adopted conditions are rarely met in practice,2 it provides by Baele et al. (2004). This allows us to build a useful benchmark against which one can assess on an already established methodology and, at the degree of financial integration, underpinning the same time, directly compare developments the analytical and empirical analysis of this in new EU Member States with those in the study. euro area. Subject to data availability, we replicate the indicators of that study, providing a A number of existing contributions (see, for comprehensive overview of the state of financial instance, Adam et al., 2002) adopt the law of one integration in new EU Member States, namely price to assess the degree of financial integration. the Czech Republic (CZ), Estonia (EE), Hungary According to the law of one price, assets with (HU), Latvia (LV), Lithuania (LT), Poland (PL), identical risk and return characteristics should and Slovakia (SK), which joined the EU on have the same price regardless of where they 1 May 2004, and Romania (RO) and Bulgaria are traded. It is easy to see that the law of one (BG), which joined on 1 January 2007. Since price is in fact an implication of the above the bulk of the analysis covers the period from definition: if all agents face the same rules, 1996 until 2006, we also consider EU member have equal access and are treated equally, any states, Slovenia (SI), which joined the euro area price difference between two identical assets on 1 January 2007, as well as Cyprus (CY) and will be immediately arbitraged away. Still, Malta (MT), which joined on 1 January 2008. there are cases where the law of one price is not directly applicable. For instance, an asset may Monitoring these countries’ economies is not not be allowed to be listed on another region’s only relevant from a policy-making point of exchange, which according to our definition view, but is also interesting in itself owing to would constitute an obstacle to financial their specific characteristics.
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