PEER – EERI Preliminary Briefing re 11 March 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center 28 April 2011

Lifeline Aspects

Charles Scawthorn, PEER Vising Scholar Shiro Takada, Prof. Emeritus, Kobe University Mohammad Javanbarg, WRN Fellow, Kyoto University

1 C. Scawthorn 2011 PEER – EERI Preliminary Briefing re 11 March 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center 28 April 2011

Event Summary

Mw: 9.0 Time: 11 March 2011 LT 2:45pm UTC 5:46am Name: Tohoku Region Pacific Offshore Earthquake (Eastern Japan Great Earthquake Disaster) Epicenter: 38.322°N 142.369°E Felt: Osaka Killed: ~ 26,000 (14,161 confirmed dead, 11,536 missing) Housing damage: 77,000 destroyed, 260,000 damaged Displaced: 160,000 Economic Loss: tbd, $500 billion?

2 C. Scawthorn 2011 PEER – EERI Preliminary Briefing re 11 March 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center 28 April 2011 Outline Lifelines; • Water and wastewater •Observaon • Transport • Rail •Implicaons • Roads •Japan • Ports •Others • Airports •Research opportunies • Energy Acknowledgements • Telcom S. Takada, Prof. Emeritus, Kobe University M. Javanbarg, Kyoto University J. Kiyono, Kyoto University Fire following earthquake H. Tatano, Kyoto University M. Hamada, Waseda University N. Okada, Kyoto University Economics K. Kawashima, Tokyo Inst. of Technology K. Meguro, Tokyo University K. Kasai, Tokyo Inst. of Technology S. Midorikawa, Tokyo Inst. of Technology K. Tokimatsu, Tokyo Inst. of Technology N. Ikeda, Kyoto University H. Takahashi, Kyoto University H. Kaji, Tokyo Inst. of Technology H. Motosaka, Tohoku University….. 3 C. Scawthorn 2011 PEER – EERI Preliminary Briefing re 11 March 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center 28 April 2011

Kyoto Univ. 18-20 April Survey Routes

PEER – EERI 11-12 April

Kyoto Univ. 28-30 March

4 C. Scawthorn 2011 PEER – EERI Preliminary Briefing re 11 March 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center 28 April 2011 Relevance

5 C. Scawthorn 2011 PEER – EERI Preliminary Briefing re 11 March 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center 28 April 2011

Tohoku Tsunami entering San Francisco Bay

6 C. Scawthorn 2011 PEER – EERI Preliminary Briefing re 11 March 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center 28 April 2011 Peak Ground Acceleraons

7 C. Scawthorn 2011 PEER – EERI Preliminary Briefing re 11 March 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center 28 April 2011 Tsunami Runup Height

8 C. Scawthorn 2011 PEER – EERI Preliminary Briefing re 11 March 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center 28 April 2011 Water / Wastewater Supply Systems Observaons

Credit. S. Takada

9 C. Scawthorn 2011 PEER – EERI Preliminary Briefing re 11 March 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center 28 April 2011

Implicaons Well –known lessons • short term shortage of water • need to quickly provide drinking water • no water for fire following earthquake

Research Opportunies 1. Detailed documentaon of pipe break / other damage 2. Correlaon with liquefacon 3. Examinaon of emergency water supply provision methods

10 C. Scawthorn 2011 PEER – EERI Preliminary Briefing re 11 March 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center 28 April 2011 Transport – Rail 1

Observaons

11 C. Scawthorn 2011 PEER – EERI Preliminary Briefing re 11 March 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center 28 April 2011

Observaons Transport – Rail 2 Shaking Effects on Shinkansen

12 C. Scawthorn 2011 PEER – EERI Preliminary Briefing re 11 March 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center 28 April 2011 Transport – Rail 3

13 C. Scawthorn 2011 PEER – EERI Preliminary Briefing re 11 March 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center 28 April 2011 Transport – Rail 4 Observaons – Tsunami effects

14 C. Scawthorn 2011 PEER – EERI Preliminary Briefing re 11 March 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center 28 April 2011 Transport – Rail 5

15 C. Scawthorn 2011 PEER – EERI Preliminary Briefing re 11 March 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center 28 April 2011 Transport – Rail 6

16 C. Scawthorn 2011 PEER – EERI Preliminary Briefing re 11 March 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center 28 April 2011 Transport – Rail 7

Implicaons •Shinkansen repaired quickly • coastal route will take longer – probably interim use of buses • US tsunami suscepble routes? Research Opportunies • selected case studies of tsunami forces on rail bridges • scouring of track, signaling • economic impact due to loss of RR

17 C. Scawthorn 2011 PEER – EERI Preliminary Briefing re 11 March 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center 28 April 2011 Transport – Highway Observaons • shaking – bridges, abutment selements • tsunami – washout of coastal bridges Implicaons • Expressways repaired rather quickly • coastal routes generally in service • US tsunami suscepble routes? Research Opportunies • selected case studies of tsunami forces on bridges • scouring of pavement • economic impact due to loss of transport

18 C. Scawthorn 2011 PEER – EERI Preliminary Briefing re 11 March 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center 28 April 2011 Transport – Airports 1

19 C. Scawthorn 2011 PEER – EERI Preliminary Briefing re 11 March 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center 28 April 2011 Transport – Airports 2

20 C. Scawthorn 2011 PEER – EERI Preliminary Briefing re 11 March 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center 28 April 2011 Transport – Airports Observaons • Naonal air traffic disrupted • Sendai airport, regional hub, shut for a month Implicaons • air traffic restored quickly • airport on shore – NRT, KIX, SFO, LAX, JFK, LGA… Research Opportunies • selected case studies of tsunami effects on air terminals, hangers, appurtenances • scouring of runway pavement • economic impact due to loss of transport

21 C. Scawthorn 2011 PEER – EERI Preliminary Briefing re 11 March 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center 28 April 2011 Transport - Ports Observaons • Shipping – Port of Sendai, Ishinomaki, Soma, Hitachinaka all significantly damaged • about 7% of port capacity down for a significant period • impacts on supply chain • Fishing – 19,000 fishing boats destroyed

22 C. Scawthorn 2011 PEER – EERI Preliminary Briefing re 11 March 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center 28 April 2011 Ports - Fishing

23 C. Scawthorn 2011 PEER – EERI Preliminary Briefing re 11 March 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center 28 April 2011 Damaged Vessels Name DWT Drilling ship Chikyu 27161 Coral Ring 75395 Shirouma 77739 Shiramizu 91439 C. S. Victory 32385 Chinasteel Integrity 175775 Asia Symphony 6175 Glovis Mercury 6901 Khrizolitoviy 523 Koshin Maru 1592 Emu Arrow 51800 Total 546885

24 C. Scawthorn 2011 PEER – EERI Preliminary Briefing re 11 March 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center 28 April 2011 Transport - Ports Implicaons • major damage to ports, warehouses • fishing boats: 19,000 destroyed (37% EJ) $ 2 ~ 5 billion ? (insured?) • 45% of fishing ports E. Japan destroyed • Next tsunami – Ports Nagoya, Kobe? LA/LB?

Research opportunies • Data / quanfy impacts on ports, by various sectors, types of traffic • supply chain – resilience? • broader regional economic impacts

25 C. Scawthorn 2011 PEER – EERI Preliminary Briefing re 11 March 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center 28 April 2011 Energy – Electric Power

26 C. Scawthorn 2011 PEER – EERI Preliminary Briefing re 11 March 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center 28 April 2011

Energy - Power

Observaons • in general, shaking had lile effect • tsunami affected some EHV substaons, T&D, but major impact on generaon staons • 8 major fossil staons down • the Fukushima NPP crisis • 11 % naonal generaon • ‘rolling brownouts’ coming this summer

27 C. Scawthorn 2011 PEER – EERI Preliminary Briefing re 11 March 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center 28 April 2011 Energy - Power

Implicaons • vulnerability of power staons in other locaons – Tokyo, Nagoya, Osaka, LA/LB… • economic impact of mid-term on-going shortages

Research Opportunies • network analysis of power grids • tsunami ‘proofing’ of waterside generang staons • regional economic impacts of electric power disrupon

28 C. Scawthorn 2011 PEER – EERI Preliminary Briefing re 11 March 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center 28 April 2011

Energy – Nuclear Power

29 C. Scawthorn 2011 PEER – EERI Preliminary Briefing re 11 March 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center 28 April 2011 Telcom Observaons Generally did well – even most cell towers survived However, early response hampered by saturaon

Implicaons Communicaon, communicaon, communicaon

Research Opportunies What is or who has the best system?

30 C. Scawthorn 2011 PEER – EERI Preliminary Briefing re 11 March 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center 28 April 2011

Fire following earthquake

31 C. Scawthorn 2011 PEER – EERI Preliminary Briefing re 11 March 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center 28 April 2011

32 C. Scawthorn 2011 PEER – EERI Preliminary Briefing re 11 March 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center 28 April 2011

33 C. Scawthorn 2011 PEER – EERI Preliminary Briefing re 11 March 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center 28 April 2011 Fire following earthquake

34 C. Scawthorn 2011 PEER – EERI Preliminary Briefing re 11 March 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center 28 April 2011 Fire following earthquake

35 C. Scawthorn 2011 PEER – EERI Preliminary Briefing re 11 March 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center 28 April 2011 Fire following earthquake

Total 345 fires ~ 260 ‘prompt’

36 C. Scawthorn 2011 PEER – EERI Preliminary Briefing re 11 March 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center 28 April 2011 Fire following earthquake

37 C. Scawthorn 2011 PEER – EERI Preliminary Briefing re 11 March 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center 28 April 2011 Fire following earthquake

38 C. Scawthorn 2011 PEER – EERI Preliminary Briefing re 11 March 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center 28 April 2011 Fire following earthquake

39 C. Scawthorn 2011 PEER – EERI Preliminary Briefing re 11 March 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center 28 April 2011 Fire following earthquake

40 C. Scawthorn 2011 PEER – EERI Preliminary Briefing re 11 March 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center 28 April 2011 Fire following earthquake

41 C. Scawthorn 2011 PEER – EERI Preliminary Briefing re 11 March 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center 28 April 2011 Fire following earthquake Observaons • ~345 fires following earthquake, due to both shaking and tsunami • several urban conflagraons • two major oil refinery fires (1 shaking, 1 tsunami) • LPG Tank cars scaered by tsunami • 30+ ignions in Tokyo Implicaons • Japan, US very vulnerable to fire following earthquake • refineries in LA / LB and SFBA Research Opportunies • Tohoku ignions >> all previous ignions • Get the data! Digest / understand it! Applicable to US? • impacts of loss of water supply • fire department response?

42 C. Scawthorn 2011 PEER – EERI Preliminary Briefing re 11 March 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center 28 April 2011 Economic Aspects • Current esmate $300 billion  $500 billion loss (3~5x previous disaster, one current esmate $470 billion) • 60~70% of businesses in region affected • ~4% GDP ~ Kobe but much wider area (infrastructure effect greater) • impacts on the Japanese economy? The global economy? • Toyota can’t meet producon in US • Casio will not meet producon goals…. • modificaon of just in me producon • fiscal strains on Japan

43 C. Scawthorn 2011 PEER – EERI Preliminary Briefing re 11 March 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center 28 April 2011

Thank you

Quesons?

[email protected]

44 C. Scawthorn 2011