PEER – EERI Preliminary Briefing re 11 March 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center 28 April 2011
Lifeline Aspects
Charles Scawthorn, PEER Visi ng Scholar Shiro Takada, Prof. Emeritus, Kobe University Mohammad Javanbarg, WRN Fellow, Kyoto University
1 C. Scawthorn 2011 PEER – EERI Preliminary Briefing re 11 March 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center 28 April 2011
Event Summary
Mw: 9.0 Time: 11 March 2011 LT 2:45pm UTC 5:46am Name: Tohoku Region Pacific Offshore Earthquake (Eastern Japan Great Earthquake Disaster) Epicenter: 38.322°N 142.369°E Felt: Osaka Killed: ~ 26,000 (14,161 confirmed dead, 11,536 missing) Housing damage: 77,000 destroyed, 260,000 damaged Displaced: 160,000 Economic Loss: tbd, $500 billion?
2 C. Scawthorn 2011 PEER – EERI Preliminary Briefing re 11 March 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center 28 April 2011 Outline Lifelines; • Water and wastewater •Observa on • Transport • Rail •Implica ons • Roads •Japan • Ports •Others • Airports •Research opportuni es • Energy Acknowledgements • Telcom S. Takada, Prof. Emeritus, Kobe University M. Javanbarg, Kyoto University J. Kiyono, Kyoto University Fire following earthquake H. Tatano, Kyoto University M. Hamada, Waseda University N. Okada, Kyoto University Economics K. Kawashima, Tokyo Inst. of Technology K. Meguro, Tokyo University K. Kasai, Tokyo Inst. of Technology S. Midorikawa, Tokyo Inst. of Technology K. Tokimatsu, Tokyo Inst. of Technology N. Ikeda, Kyoto University H. Takahashi, Kyoto University H. Kaji, Tokyo Inst. of Technology H. Motosaka, Tohoku University….. 3 C. Scawthorn 2011 PEER – EERI Preliminary Briefing re 11 March 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center 28 April 2011
Kyoto Univ. 18-20 April Survey Routes
PEER – EERI 11-12 April
Kyoto Univ. 28-30 March
4 C. Scawthorn 2011 PEER – EERI Preliminary Briefing re 11 March 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center 28 April 2011 Relevance
5 C. Scawthorn 2011 PEER – EERI Preliminary Briefing re 11 March 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center 28 April 2011
Tohoku Tsunami entering San Francisco Bay
6 C. Scawthorn 2011 PEER – EERI Preliminary Briefing re 11 March 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center 28 April 2011 Peak Ground Accelera ons
7 C. Scawthorn 2011 PEER – EERI Preliminary Briefing re 11 March 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center 28 April 2011 Tsunami Runup Height
8 C. Scawthorn 2011 PEER – EERI Preliminary Briefing re 11 March 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center 28 April 2011 Water / Wastewater Supply Systems Observa ons
Credit. S. Takada
9 C. Scawthorn 2011 PEER – EERI Preliminary Briefing re 11 March 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center 28 April 2011
Implica ons Well –known lessons • short term shortage of water • need to quickly provide drinking water • no water for fire following earthquake
Research Opportuni es 1. Detailed documenta on of pipe break / other damage 2. Correla on with liquefac on 3. Examina on of emergency water supply provision methods
10 C. Scawthorn 2011 PEER – EERI Preliminary Briefing re 11 March 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center 28 April 2011 Transport – Rail 1
Observa ons
11 C. Scawthorn 2011 PEER – EERI Preliminary Briefing re 11 March 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center 28 April 2011
Observa ons Transport – Rail 2 Shaking Effects on Shinkansen
12 C. Scawthorn 2011 PEER – EERI Preliminary Briefing re 11 March 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center 28 April 2011 Transport – Rail 3
13 C. Scawthorn 2011 PEER – EERI Preliminary Briefing re 11 March 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center 28 April 2011 Transport – Rail 4 Observa ons – Tsunami effects
14 C. Scawthorn 2011 PEER – EERI Preliminary Briefing re 11 March 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center 28 April 2011 Transport – Rail 5
15 C. Scawthorn 2011 PEER – EERI Preliminary Briefing re 11 March 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center 28 April 2011 Transport – Rail 6
16 C. Scawthorn 2011 PEER – EERI Preliminary Briefing re 11 March 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center 28 April 2011 Transport – Rail 7
Implica ons •Shinkansen repaired quickly • coastal route will take longer – probably interim use of buses • US tsunami suscep ble routes? Research Opportuni es • selected case studies of tsunami forces on rail bridges • scouring of track, signaling • economic impact due to loss of RR
17 C. Scawthorn 2011 PEER – EERI Preliminary Briefing re 11 March 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center 28 April 2011 Transport – Highway Observa ons • shaking – bridges, abutment se lements • tsunami – washout of coastal bridges Implica ons • Expressways repaired rather quickly • coastal routes generally in service • US tsunami suscep ble routes? Research Opportuni es • selected case studies of tsunami forces on bridges • scouring of pavement • economic impact due to loss of transport
18 C. Scawthorn 2011 PEER – EERI Preliminary Briefing re 11 March 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center 28 April 2011 Transport – Airports 1
19 C. Scawthorn 2011 PEER – EERI Preliminary Briefing re 11 March 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center 28 April 2011 Transport – Airports 2
20 C. Scawthorn 2011 PEER – EERI Preliminary Briefing re 11 March 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center 28 April 2011 Transport – Airports Observa ons • Na onal air traffic disrupted • Sendai airport, regional hub, shut for a month Implica ons • air traffic restored quickly • airport on shore – NRT, KIX, SFO, LAX, JFK, LGA… Research Opportuni es • selected case studies of tsunami effects on air terminals, hangers, appurtenances • scouring of runway pavement • economic impact due to loss of transport
21 C. Scawthorn 2011 PEER – EERI Preliminary Briefing re 11 March 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center 28 April 2011 Transport - Ports Observa ons • Shipping – Port of Sendai, Ishinomaki, Soma, Hitachinaka all significantly damaged • about 7% of port capacity down for a significant period • impacts on supply chain • Fishing – 19,000 fishing boats destroyed
22 C. Scawthorn 2011 PEER – EERI Preliminary Briefing re 11 March 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center 28 April 2011 Ports - Fishing
23 C. Scawthorn 2011 PEER – EERI Preliminary Briefing re 11 March 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center 28 April 2011 Damaged Vessels Name DWT Drilling ship Chikyu 27161 Coral Ring 75395 Shirouma 77739 Shiramizu 91439 C. S. Victory 32385 Chinasteel Integrity 175775 Asia Symphony 6175 Glovis Mercury 6901 Khrizolitoviy 523 Koshin Maru 1592 Emu Arrow 51800 Total 546885
24 C. Scawthorn 2011 PEER – EERI Preliminary Briefing re 11 March 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center 28 April 2011 Transport - Ports Implica ons • major damage to ports, warehouses • fishing boats: 19,000 destroyed (37% EJ) $ 2 ~ 5 billion ? (insured?) • 45% of fishing ports E. Japan destroyed • Next tsunami – Ports Nagoya, Kobe? LA/LB?
Research opportuni es • Data / quan fy impacts on ports, by various sectors, types of traffic • supply chain – resilience? • broader regional economic impacts
25 C. Scawthorn 2011 PEER – EERI Preliminary Briefing re 11 March 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center 28 April 2011 Energy – Electric Power
26 C. Scawthorn 2011 PEER – EERI Preliminary Briefing re 11 March 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center 28 April 2011
Energy - Power
Observa ons • in general, shaking had li le effect • tsunami affected some EHV substa ons, T&D, but major impact on genera on sta ons • 8 major fossil sta ons down • the Fukushima NPP crisis • 11 % na onal genera on lost • ‘rolling brownouts’ coming this summer
27 C. Scawthorn 2011 PEER – EERI Preliminary Briefing re 11 March 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center 28 April 2011 Energy - Power
Implica ons • vulnerability of power sta ons in other loca ons – Tokyo, Nagoya, Osaka, LA/LB… • economic impact of mid-term on-going shortages
Research Opportuni es • network analysis of power grids • tsunami ‘proofing’ of waterside genera ng sta ons • regional economic impacts of electric power disrup on
28 C. Scawthorn 2011 PEER – EERI Preliminary Briefing re 11 March 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center 28 April 2011
Energy – Nuclear Power
29 C. Scawthorn 2011 PEER – EERI Preliminary Briefing re 11 March 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center 28 April 2011 Telcom Observa ons Generally did well – even most cell towers survived However, early response hampered by satura on
Implica ons Communica on, communica on, communica on
Research Opportuni es What is or who has the best system?
30 C. Scawthorn 2011 PEER – EERI Preliminary Briefing re 11 March 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center 28 April 2011
Fire following earthquake
31 C. Scawthorn 2011 PEER – EERI Preliminary Briefing re 11 March 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center 28 April 2011
32 C. Scawthorn 2011 PEER – EERI Preliminary Briefing re 11 March 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center 28 April 2011
33 C. Scawthorn 2011 PEER – EERI Preliminary Briefing re 11 March 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center 28 April 2011 Fire following earthquake
34 C. Scawthorn 2011 PEER – EERI Preliminary Briefing re 11 March 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center 28 April 2011 Fire following earthquake
35 C. Scawthorn 2011 PEER – EERI Preliminary Briefing re 11 March 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center 28 April 2011 Fire following earthquake
Total 345 fires ~ 260 ‘prompt’
36 C. Scawthorn 2011 PEER – EERI Preliminary Briefing re 11 March 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center 28 April 2011 Fire following earthquake
37 C. Scawthorn 2011 PEER – EERI Preliminary Briefing re 11 March 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center 28 April 2011 Fire following earthquake
38 C. Scawthorn 2011 PEER – EERI Preliminary Briefing re 11 March 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center 28 April 2011 Fire following earthquake
39 C. Scawthorn 2011 PEER – EERI Preliminary Briefing re 11 March 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center 28 April 2011 Fire following earthquake
40 C. Scawthorn 2011 PEER – EERI Preliminary Briefing re 11 March 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center 28 April 2011 Fire following earthquake
41 C. Scawthorn 2011 PEER – EERI Preliminary Briefing re 11 March 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center 28 April 2011 Fire following earthquake Observa ons • ~345 fires following earthquake, due to both shaking and tsunami • several urban conflagra ons • two major oil refinery fires (1 shaking, 1 tsunami) • LPG Tank cars sca ered by tsunami • 30+ igni ons in Tokyo Implica ons • Japan, US very vulnerable to fire following earthquake • refineries in LA / LB and SFBA Research Opportuni es • Tohoku igni ons >> all previous igni ons • Get the data! Digest / understand it! Applicable to US? • impacts of loss of water supply • fire department response?
42 C. Scawthorn 2011 PEER – EERI Preliminary Briefing re 11 March 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center 28 April 2011 Economic Aspects • Current es mate $300 billion $500 billion loss (3~5x previous disaster, one current es mate $470 billion) • 60~70% of businesses in region affected • ~4% GDP ~ Kobe but much wider area (infrastructure effect greater) • impacts on the Japanese economy? The global economy? • Toyota can’t meet produc on in US • Casio will not meet produc on goals…. • modifica on of just in me produc on • fiscal strains on Japan
43 C. Scawthorn 2011 PEER – EERI Preliminary Briefing re 11 March 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center 28 April 2011
Thank you
Ques ons?
44 C. Scawthorn 2011