Broadband Enablement for the Digital Economy
May 3, 2019
Name: Jeremy E. Gabel P.Eng, Marketing Strategy Email: [email protected] Agenda
I. What is Broadband?
II. Broadband Enabling Technologies
III. The Regulatory Agencies
IV. Broadband Performance
V. The Importance of Broadband
VI. Wrap Up & Questions
2 Broadband Definition
What is broadband?
Image Source: TechnoFAQ
3 Definition Lacks Clarity
General Industry Agreement on Broadband ▪ High speed internet; faster than dial up ▪ Faster than “yesterday” ▪ Fast enough for what you need to do ▪Downloads ▪Streaming content ▪Gaming ▪Cloud back-up
4 How is Broadband Measured?
▪Broadband connections are measured and sold based on throughput speed ▪Thoughput = Measure of bits moved per second
5 What is Throughput?
▪ Throughput is the flow rate of bits through broadband connection ▪Typically in bits per second ▪ Bits are a binary sequence of 1’s and 0’s used to transmit information over an internet connection
1 0 1 1 0 10 bps (bits per 0 0 1 1 1 second)
A Time lapse, 1 second B
10 Mbps (Megabits 10 million bits 6 0 1 1 0 1 … per second; 10 = Mega)
6 Download versus Upload
Download ▪ Bits transferred to your device from another location
Download
Upload ▪ Bits transferred to another location from your device Upload
7 Some Regulators Have Specific Guidelines or Targets
CRTC (Canadian Radio-television & FCC (Federal Communications Commission) Telecommunications Commission)
2011 Def’n 5 Mbps 1 Mbps
2018 Def’n 25 Mbps 3 Mbps
2021 Capability that allows users to originate and Target 50 Mbps 10 Mbps receive high-quality voice, data, graphics and video services
8 Broadband Will Continue to Evolve
▪ Throughput speed will continue to be a defining attribute
Broadband is:
▪ ‘x’ Mbps Down Speed Throughput ▪ ‘y’ Mbps Up Time
Always something new on the horizon
9 More and More Households are Subscribing to Broadband
▪ High speed Internet is Residential Internet Subscrption Growth Rate vs. increasingly viewed as Population Growth Rate (%) a basic service, as 4.5% opposed to a luxury 4.0%
▪ Broadband subscription 3.5% growth rate exceeds 3.0% population growth rate ▪ 2-3X higher 2.5%
▪ 85% Canadians 2.0% subscribe to broadband 1.5% ▪ Regional Differences 1.0% ▪ 91% in AB and 90% in BC ▪ 77% in SK,NS, 76% in 0.5% North 0.0% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Subscription Growth Rate Population Growth Rate
Source: CRTC Communications Monitoring Report 2018
10 Broadband Enabling Technologies
11 DOCSIS – Data Over Cable Service Interface Specification
▪ Addition of high speed data onto existing cable television systems ▪ DOCSIS 3.1 standardized in 2016 and is currently deployed by most cable operators ▪ Top speeds of 10 Gbps download and 1 Gbps upload ▪ DOCSIS capacity is shared across multiple users ▪ Congestion can occur if the system is over-subscribed
Version Production Download Upload Date Capacity Capacity 1.0 1997 40 Mbps 10 Mbps 1.1 2001 40 Mbps 10 Mbps 2.0 2002 40 Mbps 30 Mbps 3.0 2008 1 Gbps 100 Mbps 3.1 2016 10 Gbps 1-2 Gbps 3.1 Full 2017 10 Gbps 10 Gbps Duplex
Image Source: Wikipedia HFC, NBN Australia HFC; DOCSIS Evolution Source: CableLabs
12 DSL – Digital Subscriber Line
▪ Utilize copper twisted pair (telephone lines) to provide broadband ▪ Voice and data can be delivered simultaneously DSLAM – Digital Subscriber Line ▪ Speeds depend on proximity to DSLAM and Access Multiplexer technology deployed ▪ ADSL – Asymmetric DSL ▪ VDSL – Very high bit rate DSL
Image Source: Broadbandtrends, Nokia
13 PON – Passive Optical Network
▪ Fibre optic cables ▪ Replacing copper lines ▪ Many operators are deploying XGS-PON or NG- PON2 ▪ Top speeds are 10 Gbps download and 80 Gbps respectively ▪ PON capacity is shared across multiple users ▪ Congestion can occur if the system is over-subscribed
Version Production Download Upload Date Capacity Capacity G-PON 2004 2.5 Gbps 1.2 Gbps XG-PON 2009 10 Gbps 2.5 Gbps • G-PON: G=Gigabit • XG-PON: X=10, G=Gigabit XGS-PON 2016 10 Gbps 10 Gbps • XGS-PON: X=10, G=Gigabit, S=Symmetrical NG-PON2 2015 80 Gbps 80 Gbps • NG-PON2: NG=Next Generation (8λ*10Gbps) (8λ*10Gbps) • λ = wavelength
Image Source: Huawei
14 Fixed Wireless
▪ Utilized where broadband is not available by other means ▪ i.e. xDSL, PON, DOCSIS ▪ Customer premise unit may be mounted outdoors or be an indoor only unit ▪ Tower may leverage LTE, 5G or a proprietary technology ▪ Speeds will vary on a variety of factors ▪ Proximity to tower ▪ Technology utilized ▪ Spectrum band utilized ▪ Amount of wireless spectrum used ▪ Number of users on the system
Image Source: NBN Australia
15 Mobile or Nomadic Wireless
▪ Utilized where fixed broadband is not available by other means ▪ i.e. xDSL, PON, DOCSIS, Fixed Wireless ▪ Leverage the mobile cellular network to provide broadband to non-cellular devices ▪ Mi-Fi devices ▪ LTE Routers ▪ Smartphone hotspot ▪ Mobile technologies include 3G, LTE, LTE- LTE Advanced and 5G, in the future ▪ Speeds will vary on a variety of factors ▪ Proximity to tower ▪ Technology utilized ▪ Spectrum band utilized ▪ Amount of wireless spectrum used ▪ Number of users on the system ▪ Leverages LTE a backhaul ▪ Provides Wi-Fi for non-cellular devices ▪ Provides physical ports for wired devices
16 Satellite
▪ Utilized for remote locations where no other broadband solutions are available ▪ Available virtually anywhere ▪ Latency can be a challenge for some applications ▪ Typically most expensive broadband option ▪ Prone to service degradation due to weather (i.e. rain) ▪ Low Earth Orbit (LEO) constellations coming ▪ Reduced latency ▪ Reduced transmission power ▪ Faster speeds ▪ Attractive for regions where terrestrial services are too expensive
Image Source: broadbandwherever
17 Shifts in Broadband Access Technology 2013 Residential Internet Subscriptions by Access 2017 Residential Internet Subscriptions by Access Technology Technology % of Households % of Households
Fibre
DSL market share Cable market is shrinking as share is steady FTTx is rolling out
Cable
DSL Cable Dial-up Fibre Fixed Wireless & Satellite DSL Cable Dial-up Fibre Fixed Wireless & Satellite
Source: CRTC Communications Monitoring Report 2018
18 The Regulatory Agencies
19 Regulatory agencies in Canada
CRTC (Canadian Radio-television & Telecommunications ISED (Innovation, Science and Economic Development) Commission)
▪ Administers Federal funding ▪ Licensing programs ▪ Compliance with regulations ▪ Licensing for wireless services ▪ Approving tariffs ▪ Spectrum policy ▪ Wholesale access to network facilities ▪ Regulating use of spectrum ▪ Making ownership decisions ▪ Spectrum auctions ▪ Encouraging competition ▪ Spectrum requirements ▪ Towers and tower sharing ▪ Compliance and enforcement
20 The CRTC’s Role in Regulating Internet
• No regulation • Rates • Net neutrality • Quality of ▪ CRTC does not service regulate consumer prices • Billing Retail Wholesale Internet Internet Rates Rates ▪ CRTC requires selling wholesale access at regulated rates
Policy Funding
▪ CRTC requires • Targets • Various funds selling wholesale • Universal to aid or spur access at Service investment in regulated rates ▪ CRTC does not Objective Canada regulate retail rates
Source: CRTC https://crtc.gc.ca/eng/internet/role.htm 21 Closing the Digital Divide in Canada
▪ Telecom Regulatory Policy CRTC 2016-496 declared broadband a basic telecommunications service
“Canadians living in rural and other underserved areas need high-quality broadband Internet and mobile wireless service to fully participate in the digital economy” Ian Scott
“… high-speed internet is a necessity, not a luxury. ” Dept. of Finance (Budget 2019)
Image Source: CRTC
22 There’s Work Required to Get to 90% Coverage Target
50/10 Mbps Broadband Service Availability by Province/Territory 100 BC, 91% 90 CA, 84.1% 80 70 60 50 SK, 45.4% 40
30 % of % Households 20 10 0 BC AB SK MB ON QC NB NS PEI NL YK NWT NU CA ▪ Target of 50 Mbps download, 10 Mbps upload with unlimited data transfer available to 84% of Canadian households in 2017 ▪ Unchanged from 2016 ▪ Regional differences ▪ 91.0% in B.C ▪ 45.4% in SK ▪ 0% in the Territories Source: CRTC Communications Monitoring Report 2018
23 There’s Work Required to Bridge the Urban and Rural Divide
Broadband Speed Availability (Urban vs. Rural) 100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
% of % Households 30%
20%
10%
0% 1.5 + Mbps 5 + Mbps 10+ Mbps 16 + Mbps 25 + Mbps 30 + Mbps 50 + Mbps 100 + Mbps Large population centres Medium population centres Small population centres Rural areas ▪ Target of 50 Mbps download, 10 Mbps upload with unlimited data transfer available to 84% of Canadian households in 2017 ▪ 97% urban area availability ▪ 37% rural area availability
Source: CRTC Communications Monitoring Report 2018
24 Federal Government Investing in Universal Broadband Access
▪ $5 - $6 billion for rural broadband over the next decade ▪CRTC rural and remote broadband fund ▪Coordination with the provinces and territories ▪Accelerated Investment Incentive ▪Connect to Innovate program ▪Secure Low Earth Orbit satellite capacity
Source: Department of Finance Backgrounder Federal Budget 2019
25 Broadband Performance = Broadband Speed
26 Why Do We Need More Speed? Video and cloud services are drivers • HD and 4K video • Video conferencing
More connected devices • PCs, tablets, smart TVs, IoT devices
Connection speed should exceed average usage to ensure a quality experience
27 How Broadband Speed Works
Peak Speed 14.6 Mbps
Average Speed 8.2 Mbps
Image Source: AT&T Speed Calculator: https://www.att.com/esupport/speed-calculator/index.jsp 28 Broadband Requirements by Service
Service GB per GB per Bit Rate (Mbps)1 ▪ Video continues to hour month2 dominate 4K HDR / UHD Video 25 11.0 274.7 ▪ 68% of all internet traffic in HD Video (1080p) 8 3.5 87.9 Canada in 2018 ▪ 75% of all internet traffic SD Video (360p) 3 1.3 33.0 by 2022 Streaming Music 0.5 0.2 5.5 ▪ Netflix Phenomena Video Call (e.g. Facetime) 1 0.4 11.0 ▪ Netflix accounts for 19% Gaming Console 3 1.3 33.0 of download traffic in the 4 Web Browsing 1 0.4 11.0 Americas region. ▪ Netflix accounts for 40% Email 0.5 0.2 5.5 of download traffic during Social Media 1 0.4 11.0 some peak hours.4 Video Conferencing 6 2.6 65.9 File Downloading 10 4.4 109.9
Source: 1. CRTC, FCC, AT&T, Consumer Reports 2. Assume 1 hour per day and 25 days per month 3. Cisco VNI 2018 4. Sandvine Global Internet Phenomena Report 2018
29 Residential Household Bandwidth Growth
Total Average Household Bandwidth1 What will bandwidth 50 will be required? 45 ▪ Average household 40 will require 25 Mbps
35 by end of 2022
30 ▪ Many households will require more 25 Mbps ▪ Higher consumption 20 of high quality video 15 could push this to 50
10 Mbps
5
0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Pessimistic Most Likely Optimistic
1. ACG Forecast of Fixed Broadband Bandwidth Requirements 2. Cisco VNI 2018
30 Speeds For the High End Users (Nielsen’s Law)
1,000,000,000,000.00
100,000,000,000.00 NG-PON2 (8 wavelengths) service tier
10,000,000,000.00 XGS-PON2, DOCSIS 3.1 service tier G-PON service tier 1,000,000,000.00
DOCSIS 100,000,000.00 Evolution??
10,000,000.00
1,000,000.00
100,000.00
10,000.00 Top Download TopDownload Speed (bits per second) 1,000.00
100.00
10.00
1.00 1984 1994 2004 2014 2024 2034
Nielsen's Law XGS-PON NG-PON2 GPON
1. Capacity to peak ratio of 2:1 allows service providers to have a reasonable level of confidence that the speed test measurement will accurately reflect a user’s subscription level
31 Broadband Availability in Canada
Broadband Availability by Speed 100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40% (% of Households) of (%
30%
20%
10%
0% 25+ 30+ 50+ 100+ 150+ 200+ Gigabit (Mbps)
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Source: CRTC Communications Monitoring Report 2018
32 Canada Subscriptions Shifting to Higher Speeds
Residential Subscriptions by Advertised Download ▪ 84% of Canadian Speed households have access 1 100% to 50 Mbps or higher
90% ▪ Blend of all technologies, including line bonding on 80% DSL 70% ▪ In Canada, 60.4% of
60% fixed broadband connections will be faster 50% than 50 Mbps by 20222
40% ▪ Typically, the focus is on % of Households of % 30% download speeds
20% ▪ Upload speeds matter, and will grow in 10% importance 0% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 ▪ Cloud backups <16 Mbps 16 to <50 Mbps 50+ Mbps ▪ Sharing content
1. CRTC Communications Monitoring Report 2018 2. Cisco VNI 2018
33 More Speed Drives More Consumption
Average Household Usage of Residential Broadband ▪ Users with greater Subscribers1 speeds generate more 180 traffic 160 ▪ Download represents
140 about 90% of overall traffic 120 ▪ FTTx households use 100 2.5x more data than
80 other broadband GB GB month per households2 60 ▪ Nearly a quarter of all 40 broadband households 20 will generate more
0 than 500 GB per 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 month in 20222 Download Upload
1. CRTC Communications Monitoring Report 2018 2. Cisco VNI 2018
34 The Importance of Broadband
35 Global Recognition of the Importance of Broadband
“Ensuring good access to the “Broadband is fundamental to future Internet and other broadband economic prosperity, global services is essential in a digital competitiveness and social society” – Dr. Catherine Middleton, development” - PIAC Ryerson University
“Considering the importance of broadband access for rural and remote areas residents, many witnesses suggested that the federal government ensure that minimum quality of basic services in rural and remote areas is on par with urban centers.” – Broadband Connectivity in Rural Canada: Broadband is the road to connect Overcoming the Digital Divide citizens to the digital economy
36 Capital Expenditures for Telecommunications
Top 20 non-publicly funded industries, 2015
Source: The Economics of Telecommunications in Canada 37 Canada is Home to Some of the Best Networks in the World
Source: Ookla Speedtest Global Index, February 2019
38 Broadband Fuels the Economy
Total GDP Increase (2002-2016)
Speed Increases
5.66%
Customer Growth
Source: Economic Impact of Broadband, OECD, Pantelis Koutroumpis, 2018
39 Current Impact of Wireless on the Canadian Economy
$27.5B GDP ▪A country’s overall competitiveness is increasingly being 151.5k Full measured by its Time Jobs competitiveness in the ICT sector ▪Wireless is a key $2.92B Capital component Investment
Source: Nordcity Report on Economic Benefits of Canadian Wireless Industry 40 Future 5G Impact on the Economy
Source: Accenture Strategy - Canada’s Path in the Race to 5G
41 Broadband Fuels Innovation
Amazing Innovation - Enabled by broadband everywhere
Global Leaders - Who pivoted to embrace mobile & broadband
Technology Job Growth - Fueled by broadband technologies
42 Broadband will enable the economy of the future
Source: Qualcomm 5G Economy
43 Closing Thoughts
Social
Work – Life Entertainment Balance
Everyday Commerce Adequate Funding tasks 5G Fixed Wireless LEO Satellites
Research
44 Questions?
45