Prospects for Observing Comet ISON
November and December 2013
By Bob Moler
What is a Comet?
The nucleus of Comet 103P/Hartley is 1.4 miles long.
Comets seem to come from the spherical Oort Cloud that surrounds the solar system out to perhaps 1 light year.
The discoverers: Artyom Novichonok and Vitaly Nevski of the International Scientific Optical Network (ISON)
Path of the in-bound Comet ISON from the date of discovery, when it was still beyond the orbit of Jupiter, to perihelion.
Path of the out-bound Comet ISON from perihelion out to Jupiter's orbit.
Comet ISON's orbital elements describe the size and shape of it's orbit in 4 dimensions of space and time.
Light curve of predicted cometary brightness with actual magnitude measurements.
From Seiichi Yoshida's website: http://www.aerith.net/comet/catalog/2012S 1/2012S1.html
Comet ISON by Adam Block - October 8, 2013 - University of Arizona
The Path of Comet ISON November-December 2013
Comet 2P/Encke is in the same area of the sky with Comet ISON during November.
It is expected to be brighter than Comet ISON until November 19th.
Comet ISON is due to 'round the Sun on November 28th, 2013
The path of Comet ISON through the field of view of SOHO's LASCO imagers
Let's take a look at the path of Comet ISON against the stars in an equatorial orientation like star charts show.
Track of Comet ISON from November 1st to the 7th
Track of Comet ISON from November 8th to the 14th
Track of Comet ISON from November 15th to the 21st
Track of Comet ISON from November 16th to the 28th
Track of Comet ISON from November 29th to December 4th
Track of Comet ISON from December 5th to the 11th
Track of Comet ISON from December 12th to the 25th
Track of Comet ISON from December 26th to January 8th
Let's take a look at the path of Comet ISON against the stars in an alt-azimuth orientation as you'd see it in the sky.
Track of Comet ISON from November 1st to the 14th
Track of Comet ISON from November 15th to the 28th
Track of Comet ISON from November 29th to December 19th
Track of Comet ISON from December 20th to January 9th
The big question for Comet ISON:
WillWill itit survivesurvive Perihelion?Perihelion?
Let's see some comets which didn't
Comet Shoemaker-Levy 9.passed close to Jupiter in July, 1992. Beside tearing the comet's nucleus into 22+ pieces, it altered the comet's orbit so these pieces would hit Jupiter 2 years later from July 16 through 22, 1994. The atmospheric blemishes lasted for months and were visible in small telescopes.
This comet began to break up in 1995 into 4 pieces. On its return in 2006 it came back in 8 pieces.
The Hubble Space Telescope made a multi-day movie of nucleus B breaking apart. Nucleus A didn't survive from 1995 and the intervening unseen passage of the sun between 1995 and 2006.
Comet C/2010 X1 Elenin discovered in December 2010 and disintegrated September 2012.
Let's look at 2 survivors, Comet McNaught of 7 years ago and Comet Lovejoy of 2 years ago
Comet McNaught C/2006 P1 (The Great Comet of 2007) was best seen from earth's southern hemisphere
Photo from the SOHO LASCO C3 imager of Comet C/2011 W3 (Lovejoy)
Solar Dynamics Observatory image of Comet Lovejoy surviving it's encounter with the Sun's corona
The last sungrazing comet to survive its close encounter with the sun – Comet Lovejoy in December 2011 – As seen from the International Space Station