08.05.2018-14.05.2018 • No: 163 7

POLITICAL TURBULENCE IN : THE TRIUMPH OF “STREET DEMOCRACY” In 2018, Armenia entered the final phase of the not succeed in convincing demonstrators to stop of votes after the second round of an election the political transition initiated in 2015 after Arme- the anti-government protests. National Assembly should be dissolved, which nian voters approved the shift from the presiden- The confrontation intensified on April 22 after po- was disadvantageous for parliamentarians from tial to the parliamentary system of government lice detained Pashinyan and two other Yelk Alli- the ruling party, the RPA wisely decided to sup- with the changes to take effect during the 2017- ance parliamentarians, shortly after the opposition port Pashinyan’s bid to become a prime minister. 2018 electoral cycle. By winning the April 2017 leader rejected demands to back down during a As a result, the next day after the National Assem- parliamentary election with 49.17% of the votes short televised meeting with the new prime minis- bly’s extraordinary session the RPA announced its and gaining 58 seats in the 105-seat National As- ter. Nearly 200 protesters were also detained. On decision to vote for Pashinyan during the second sembly, the ruling Republican Party of Armenia the next, 11th day of mass protests, April 23, hun- round of the election. Therefore, on May 8, 2018, (RPA) secured its positions in the country’s new dreds of uniformed soldiers joined anti-govern- leader of parliamentary Yelq Alliance Pashinyan political system laying the foundation for its dom- ment demonstrators, despite the Defense Minis- was elected as the country’s new prime minister. inance. In order to complete the unprecedented try’s warning of punishment for participating in In a vote at the National Assembly, 59 parliamen- transformation, there was a need to hold indirect the protests. Due to a renewed wave of thousands tarians backed Pashinyan’s candidacy with 42 vot- presidential and prime ministerial elections, since of demonstrators, the situation could have spiraled ing against, while to be elected the 42-year-old both positions no longer require a national direct out of control. However, on the same day, politician needed at least 53 votes. vote. In March 2018, the National Assembly suc- Sargsyan resigned from the position of Armenia’s However, there is no guarantee that the RPA will cessfully chose Armen Sarkissian, a former prime prime minister preferring to step down peacefully further support Pashinyan’s political and eco- minister and former Armenia’s ambassador to rather than to use force with unpredictable conse- nomic initiatives. In fact, the ruling party endorsed Great Britain, to serve a seven-year term as the quences for the country’s future. Sargsyan’s res- Pashinyan for the prime ministerial post only to country’s new president, the role of whom under ignation statement came hours after Pashinyan preserve the national unity of Armenia, but it has the terms of the revised Armenian constitution is was released. In his final address as the head of the concerns about his ability to run the country. based more on the ceremonial duties. The only is- country, Sargsyan acknowledged that he had been Therefore, after taking the office, the new leader sue then left to be addressed was the prime minis- wrong to become the prime minister and satisfied of Armenia announced that his priority would be terial election. the street movement’s demand to resign. to hold an early parliamentary election, which On April 17, 2018, Serzh Sargsyan, 63-year-old Following the resignation, the government ap- would make it possible to rebalance the power in politician who had served for more than a decade pointed Sargsyan’s ally Karen Karapetian as the the National Assembly now dominated by the al- as the country’s president, was elected as the acting prime minister. In accordance with Arme- lies of his predecessor. However, before appoint- prime minister at the special session of Armenia’s nia’s constitution, the National Assembly gath- ing a new election date, there is a need to form a National Assembly. Sargsyan was nominated by ered to elect a new prime minister on May 1, 2018. new viable and effective government and prepare the RPA and its coalition partner, the Dashnak- After a compromise agreement over a potential an action plan, which would cover both domestic tsutyun Party. A total of 77 Armenian parliamen- nominee was reached, Pashinyan became the only and international policies. It is already known that tarians voted in favor of Sargsyan, while 17 law- candidate for the country’s most powerful post. the new leadership does not intend to review the makers voted against. However, Sargsyan’s deci- However, since Pashinyan lacked a large power format of the Armenian-Russian relations, stating sion to take on the post of the prime minister pro- base within the parliament, including the ruling that Moscow will remain ’s strategic part- voked considerable discontent among the opposi- RPA, which controls a majority of seats, he re- ner and ally within the tion parties and a large part of the population since ceived 45 votes, while 56 deputies from the RPA and the Collective Security Treaty Organization. he broke his 2014 promise not to become a prime voted against. This necessitated the holding of the Along with this, the Pashinyan-led government minister after his presidential term expired. second round of the election. will definitely focus on deepening relations with Sargsyan’s new appointment was widely per- It was everyone’s expectation that Pashinyan, who the European Union further opening Armenia to ceived as an attempt to extend his grip on power. headed the nationwide protest movement that foreign businesses and capital. Accusing Sargsyan of changing the system to en- forced longstanding leader Sarksyan to resign, In conclusion, the newly formed government has sure his own retention of power, opposition sup- would continue to assert his right to be elected as to face serious challenges in order to meet expec- porters led by , the Head of the a new prime minister. After the National Assem- tations held by the Armenian citizens, who pub- Party of Armenia and leader of the bly voted against the leader of the mass protest licly demand to reduce disparities, and eradicate parliamentary Yelq Alliance, gathered in the cen- movement, Pashinyan called for peaceful protests poverty, high unemployment, and widespread cor- ter of Yerevan for a large-scale demonstration to take place nationwide asking his supporters to ruption. Despite the fact that Pashinyan has four days prior to the election date – on April 13, continue acts of civil disobedience. As a result, on formed a new government out of a diverse crew of 2018. May 2, 2018, thousands of Armenians responded political allies, he will have to work with the Na- On the day of the election, Pashinyan called pro- to the call for a nationwide general strike, block- tional Assembly controlled by his political oppo- testers to make a “non-violent velvet revolution” ing key roads and government buildings across the nents. Therefore, it could take time to initiate aimed at preventing any possibility of cementing country. For instance, in the capital Yerevan de- highly expected political and social transfor- Sargsyan’s hold on power. In order to obstruct the monstrators closed entrances to several ministry mations. Nevertheless, unlike the previous “color first cabinet meeting of the Sargsyan-led govern- buildings, stopped traffic on the route to the main revolutions” in Georgia, Kyrgyzstan, and Ukraine, ment, the opposition movement tried to block the airport, and disrupted the rail and metro services. Armenia’s peaceful velvet revolution is, without major government building compound. This led to Protests also took place in the second largest city exaggeration, a unique case of a nonviolent clashes with police, which resulted in some 120 of the country, Gyumri, while in the city of Vanad- change of government in the former Soviet coun- demonstrators being detained. After a day of scuf- zor demonstrators blockaded the mayor’s office tries. The Armenian example clearly shows that fles between protesters and police, new President and other public buildings. no political leadership is able to tackle a crisis of of Armenia Armen Sarkissian called for dialogue Since Armenia’s constitution stipulates that in legitimacy without the willingness to launch far- and peaceful settlement. However, his appeal did case a prime minister is not elected by a majority reaching political reforms. Written by Lidiya Parkhomchik, Eurasian Research Institute, Kazakhstan

Politics, Foreign Affairs and Security  During his official visit to Samarkand, Society and Culture Minister of Internal Affairs of Kazakh-  According to Minister of Economy of stan Kalmukhanbet Kassymov met with  During the special session of the Na- Turkey Nihat Zeybekci, Russian tour- Minister of Internal Affairs of Uzbeki- tional Assembly of Armenia, which was ists will be able to use their national cur- stan Pulat Bobozhonov to discuss the the second round of the parliamentary rency, ruble, in Turkey. It was noted that creation of the coordination group vote, opposition leader Nikol Pashinyan the talks on the use of rubles in Turkey aimed at enhancing the effectiveness of was elected as the country’s new prime are underway between the two coun- bilateral cooperation on various issues minister. Unlike in the first round, 59 tries. It was also stated that in March of operational activity. The parties also members of the parliament voted for his 2018 97,438 tourists from vis- discussed strengthening cooperation be- candidacy with 42 voting against. Pash- ited Turkey, which is 38,784 people tween the internal affairs bodies in the inyan was the only candidate in both more than in March 2017. rounds. fight against cross-border crime. .  The Executive Committee of the Inter-  After President of the United States Economy, Finance and Energy national Fund for Saving the Aral Sea Donald Trump withdrew from the Joint  According to the State Statistics Com- (IFAS) with the assistance of the Ger- Comprehensive Plan of Action man Society for International Coopera- (JCPOA) inked in 2015 between Iran mittee of Uzbekistan, the country’s for- eign trade turnover equaled $11.3 bil- tion (GIZ) organized a meeting in Ash- and P5+1 group President of Iran Has- gabat on the development of coopera- lion in January-April 2018. During the san Rouhani stated that the country tion with international partners. The reporting period, Uzbekistan’s exports would remain committed to the multina- meeting participants exchanged views totaled $5 billion, while the country’s tional nuclear deal despite the U.S. de- on the concept of the UN Aral Sea Pro- imports amounted to $6.3 billion. cision to cancel the agreement. gram. At the same time, the parties dis- Among the CIS countries, Russia, Ka-  During the session of the Supreme Eur- cussed the preparation of a new Action zakhstan, Belarus, Ukraine, Kyrgyz- asian Economic Council held in Sochi, Program to assist the countries of the stan, and Tajikistan are major foreign the leaders of the member states of the Aral Sea basin (ASBP-4), which in- trade partners of Uzbekistan, which ac- Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) dis- cludes a set of measures and projects count for 28.0% of the country’s total cussed further efforts to create a single aimed at improving the environment foreign trade turnover. market of goods and services, develop and promoting socio-economic devel- production ties and cooperation, as well  According to the National Statistics Of- opment of the region. fice of Georgia, in January-April 2018, as put in place a policy of financial pol-  According to Head of the Russian Cen- the country’s trade turnover grew by icy rapprochement. Moreover, a key is- ter for Reconciliation of the Opposing sue on the summit agenda was the vot- 22.2% reaching $3.78 billion. During Parties Yuri Yevtushenko, more than ing over Moldova’s status as an ob- the reporting period, Georgia’s exports 65,000 Syrians have returned to their server in the EEU, which concluded increased by 22% to $961.4 million, homes in Eastern Ghouta from refugee positively for Chisinau. while the value of imports increased to camps. $2.82 billion by 22.3% compared to the  During his official visit to Tashkent, the  During his official visit to Minsk, Min- same period in 2017. Commander of the U.S. Central Com- ister of Health, Labor and Welfare of Ja- mand, General Joseph Leonard Votel,  President of Turkmenistan Gurbanguly pan Katsunobu Kato met with met with President of Uzbekistan Shav- Berdimuhamedov signed a resolution Healthcare Minister of Belarus Valery kat Mirziyoyev to discuss the topical is- approving the composition of the inter- Malashko to sign a memorandum of co- sues of countering modern challenges governmental Turkmen-Kazakh com- operation aimed at expanding collabo- and threats to ensure stability in the re- mission on economic, scientific, tech- ration between the Belarusian gion, as well as a peaceful settlement of nical and cultural cooperation. The doc- healthcare specialists and their Japanese the situation in Afghanistan. ument was signed in order to further de- partners.  During his official visit to Ashgabat, velop the partnership between Turk-  According to the China Aerospace Sci- Minister of Transport and Roads of menistan and Kazakhstan, expand bilat- ence and Technology Corporation, the Kyrgyzstan Zhamshitbek Kalilov met eral trade, economic, scientific, tech- country launched Gaofen-5, a hyper- with Minister of Road Transport of nical and cultural ties. spectral imaging satellite, as part of the Turkmenistan Jumageldy Garaev to dis-  According to a draft law on the budget country’s high-resolution Earth obser- cuss further development of bilateral re- of the Finance Ministry of Russia, it is vation project. The Gaofen-5 satellite lations in the field of transportation and expected that for the first time since was launched off the back of a Long transit of goods. In addition, the sides 2011 the country’s budget for 2018 March 4C rocket from the Taiyuan Sat- discussed mutual cooperation in the would run a surplus of 440.6 billion ru- ellite Launch Center in northern Shanxi field of civil aviation. bles ($7.15 billion), or 0.45% of the Province. The satellite can be used for  During his official visit to Tehran, Pres- country’s GDP. comprehensive environmental monitor- ident of Sri Lanka Maithripala Sirisena  According to the National Bank of Bel- ing. met with President of Iran Hassan Rou- arus, the country’s exports of goods and  Hundreds of people gathered in front of hani to discuss deepening relations and services totaled $9.8 billion in the first the Georgian parliament building in issues of mutual interest. As a result of quarter of 2018, which is a 25.7% in- Tbilisi to protest a violent overnight the visit, the parties signed a number of crease compared to the same period of drug raid by police, demanding resigna- agreements on cooperation in various 2017. It was noted that the country’s tions of the interior minister and the spheres, including health, medical sci- foreign trade in goods and services to- prime minister. Demonstrators perceive ences, medicine and medical equip- taled $19.2 billion increasing by 25.5% drug raids as a demonstration of force ment, as well as culture and security. compared to January-March 2017. that openly violates human rights.

Prepared by Lidiya Parkhomchik, Dauren Aben, Daniyar Nurbayev