COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, California

U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development Office of Policy Development and Research As of May 1, 2015

Summary Housing Market Area Economy demand is expected for 42,900 new homes (Table 1). The 3,500 homes Economic conditions in the Riverside currently under construction and a HMA have improved significantly since portion of the estimated 129,300 other the end of 2010. During the 12 months Inyo Clark vacant units in the HMA that may re-­ Nevada ending April 2015, nonfarm payrolls

California Mohave enter the sales market will satisfy some

n Ker increased 4.2 percent, to 1.30 million of the forecast demand. Ar jobs, after an increase of 4.5 percent, San Bernardino izon a or 53,750 jobs, during the previous 12-month period. After marginal job Rental Market Los Angeles

Orange Riverside La Paz growth in 2011, the HMA added an The rental housing market in the HMA average of 45,700 jobs, or 3.8 percent, is currently balanced overall, with an

San Diego Imperial annually from 2012 through 2014. The estimated rental vacancy rate of 5.4 Pacific Yuma Ocean unemployment rate declined to 7.5 percent, down from 9.1 percent in April Mexico percent during the 12 months ending 2010 (Table DP-1 at the end of this The Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario April 2015, down from 9.3 percent dur-­ report). The apartment market is tighter, Housing Market Area (hereafter, the ing the 12 months ending April 2014. however, with a vacancy rate of 4.2 Riverside HMA) consists of Riverside percent during the first quarter of 2015, and San Bernardino Counties in south- Sales Market down from 4.4 percent a year earlier ern California, east of Los Angeles and (MPF Research). During the forecast Orange Counties. The HMA is cotermin-­ The sales housing market in the HMA period, demand is expected for 16,950 ous with the Riverside-San Bernardino- is currently soft but improving, with new rental units (Table 1). The 3,425 Ontario, CA Metropolitan Statistical an estimated owner vacancy rate of units currently under construction will Area (MSA), which is known as the “In-­ 2.3 percent, down from 3.5 percent in satisfy some of the forecast demand. land Empire” and is the largest MSA in April 2010. During the forecast period, the nation in terms of land area, encom­- passing 27,400 square miles. For purposes Table 1. Housing Demand in the Riverside HMA* During the Forecast of this analysis, the HMA is divided into Period two submarkets: the Riverside submar- Riverside Riverside San Bernardino ket, which comprises Riverside County, HMA* Submarket Submarket and the San Bernardino submarket, which Sales Rental Sales Rental Sales Rental comprises San Bernardino County. Units Units Units Units Units Units Total demand 42,900 16,950 30,100 9,000 12,800 7,950 Under Market Details construction 3,500 3,425 2,175 1,725 1,325 1,700 Economic Conditions...... 2 * Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario HMA. Notes: Total demand represents estimated production necessary to achieve a balanced Population and Households...... 5 market at the end of the forecast period. Units under construction as of May 1, 2015. A portion of the estimated 129,300 other vacant units in the HMA will likely satisfy some Housing Market Trends...... 8 of the forecast demand. Sales demand includes an estimated demand for 450 mobile homes. The forecast period is May 1, 2015, to May 1, 2018. Data Profiles...... 17 Source: Estimates by analyst Riv erside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 2 Source: U.S.Bureau ofLaborStatistics Note: Current isbasedon12-month averages through April 2015. * Riverside-SanBernardino-Ontario HMA. Figure 1. Source: U.S.BureauofLaborStatistics averages through April 2014and April 2015. Notes: Numbersmaynotaddtototalsbecauseofrounding.Basedon12-month * Riverside-SanBernardino-OntarioHMA. Table 2. – 30 Total nonfarmpayroll jobs Service-providing sectors Goods-producing sectors Government Other services Leisure &hospitality Education &healthservices Professional &businessservices Financial activities Information Transportation &utilities Wholesale &retail trade Manufacturing Mining, logging,&construction Economic Conditions – 20 12-Month Average NonfarmPayroll JobsintheRiverside by Sector SectorGrowthinthe – 10 0 10 20 Riverside April 2014 1,087,800 1,250,000 226,000 138,800 188,200 133,800 223,700 162,200 12 MonthsEnding 41,900 42,400 11,500 81,400 88,400 73,800 30 or 4.5percent,duringthe12months 53,750jobs, months afteranincreaseof or 4.2percent,fromtheprevious 12 53,100jobs, million jobs, anincreaseof payrolls2015, nonfarm averaged 1.30 During the12monthsendingApril joblossesinthelate2000s. 3 years of recovery thatbeganin2011,after T HMA,* in the midst of aneconomic in themidstof he Riverside HMAiscurrently 40 April 2015 1,303,100 1,132,600 170,400 229,900 147,100 195,800 142,200 229,100 90,900 79,500 43,600 43,300 11,200 90,600 PercentageChange,2000toCurrent 50 Absolute 60 Change 53,100 44,800 2,500 5,700 8,200 3,900 1,700 8,300 7,600 8,400 9,200 5,400 – 300 900 70 Change Percent – 2.6 HMA,* 11.3 2.8 7.7 5.1 4.2 1.7 4.1 6.0 4.0 6.3 2.1 2.4 4.1 80

90 of 2010 with the opening of distribu­ 2010withtheopeningof of 2,500 jobsinthesectorsinceend com Inc. hascreatedapproximately HMA since 2000 (Figure1).Amazon. been thefastestgrowing sectorinthe a new highforthesector, whichhas 90,600jobsrepresents The average of 9,200 jobs, or11.3percent(Table 2). ending April2015andexpanded by led jobsgainsduringthe12months andutilitiessector The transportation April. for a12-monthperiodendingwith ending April2007,theprevious high the 1.29millionduring12months than jobsis0.7percentgreater ber of numending April2014.Thecurrent ­ number of containersshippedtotaled number of Angeles andLongBeach,wherethe Los of increased activity attheports The sectorhasalsobenefittedfrom tive toadjacentLosAngeles County. asignificantadvantagerepresents rela­ storage in the HMA The lower costof Moreno Valley andRedlands in2014. nardino in2011andthecitiesof SanBer­ tion centersinthecityof 100 Total nonfarmpayroll jobs Service-providing sectors Goods-producing sectors Education &healthservices Professional &businessservices Financial activities Transportation &utilities Manufacturing Government Other services Leisure &hospitality Wholesale &retail trade Mining, logging,&construction Information -

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Riv erside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 3 Source: U.S.Bureau ofLaborStatistics Note: Basedon12-month averagesthrough April 2015. * Riverside-SanBernardino-Ontario HMA. Figure 3. Source: U.S.BureauofLaborStatistics * Riverside-SanBernardino-OntarioHMA. Figure 2. Labor force and resident employment 1,185,000 1,285,000 1,385,000 1,485,000 1,585,000 1,685,000 1,785,000 1,885,000 1,985,000 2,085,000 Economic Conditions Leisure &hospitality11.3% Education &healthservices15.0%

Other services3.3% by Sector Current NonfarmPayroll Jobsinthe ployment Rateinthe Trends inLaborForce,ResidentEmployment,andUnem Labor force 2000

Government 17.6% Government 2001

2002

2003

2004

Continued

Resident employment 2005 Riverside HMA,* 2006

2007 Mining, logging,&construction6.1% rate from2000through2014. employment, andtheunemployment trends inthelaborforce, resident through 2007,however. Figure2shows 5.6percentfrom2000 the average of unemployment rateremains above 12 monthsendingApril2010.The the13.2percentduring high of vious 12monthsandwell be­ down from9.3percentduringthepre­ ing the12monthsendingApril2015, in theHMAaveraged 7.5percentdur­ Long Beach). The unemployment rate LosAngeles, Port of 2010 (Port of slightly morethan14.06millionin valent unitsin2014,up8percentfrom more than15.12million20-footequi­ Professional &businessservices10.9% 2008

Financial activities3.3% 2009 Manufacturing 7.0% Information 0.9%

Riverside HMA,* 2010 Transportation &utilities6.9% 2000Through2014 Wholesale &retail trade17.6% 2011

2012 Unemployment rate

2013

2014 low a

10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 -

Unemployment rate - - -

primarily becauselocalgovernments payrolls totalnonfarm in2009, of the sectoraccountedfor20.2percent April 2015(Figure3).Bycomparison, payrolls duringthe12monthsending totalnonfarm for 17.6percentof 12-month period.Thesectoraccounted jobs, or1.7percent,fromtheprevious 3,900 229,900 jobs, anincreaseof ending April2015,thesectoraveraged other sectors. Duringthe12months sion causedjobgrowth tolagbehind cutbacks afterthemostrecentreces­ since thelate2000sbecausebudget thesectorhasdeclined significance of in theHMA,althougheconomic The government sectoristhelargest Twentynine Palms, and Fort Irwin bat Center, which is nearthecityof AirGround Com­ The MarineCorps theHMA. of impacts insomeparts continue tohave significant economic eral andstategovernment employers government sectorjobs, although fed­ all for approximately 79 percentof subsector cur ernment or 1.3percent,annually. Thelocalgov ­ 2,300jobs,sector addedanaverage of the period,localgovernment sub­ 2012through2014.During the endof 2,100 jobs, or0.9percent,ayear from 2013. Thesectoraddedanaverage of jobs, respectively—to add jobssince ers intheHMAat17,700and17,400 SanBernardino, thelargest employ­ of Riverside andtheCounty the Countyof allowed localgovernments—including nomic conditionsintheHMAhave jobs lostinthesector. Improving eco­ the and accountedfor86percentof 3,025jobs, or1.7percent,ayear of government subsectorlostanaverage took place. Duringtheperiod,local from 2010through2012asthelayoffs 3,525jobs, or1.5percent,annually of the HMA.Thesectorlostanaverage contractionfor late intheperiodof managed toresistlayoffs untilrelatively ­rently accounts -

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Riv erside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 4 Economic Conditions

Continued of Blythe, Chino,of Corona,andNorco. bined 5,450jobsatfacilitiesinthecities and Rehabilitation accountsforacom­ Corrections of Department California Riverside andthe 5,800 inthecityof Riverside California, employs versity of state government subsector, theUni­ jobs forcivilians andreservists. Inthe though thefacilityaccountsfor9,000 MorenoValley,near thecityof al­ stationed atMarchAirReserve Base, active-duty personnelarecurrently 16,300 active-duty personnel.Few ian jobs, inadditiontoacombined account forapproximately 7,400civil Barstow, thecityof of 40 milesnorth National Training Center, whichis State Board of Equalization). State Boardof 7percent(California increase of million in2007,anaverage annual from $35.87millionin2000to $59.47 taxable salesintheHMAincreased jobgrowth inthesectoras cent of trade subsectoraccountedfor73per­ jobs, or5.0percent,annually. Theretail 9,550 and expanded byanaverage of and retailtradesectorledjobgains, justments bytheanalyst). Thewholesale the period(CoreLogic, Inc., withad­ prices intheHMA,respectively, during averaged 49and78percentmorethan Counties, wherehomesalesprices LosAngeles andOrange markets of to jobsinthemoreexpensive housing tries cateringtoworkers whocommuted sectors,the service particularly indus­ growth ledtosignificantjobgainsin 0.6percent.Population national rateof annually, morethansixtimesthe 41,600jobs,average or3.7percent, of payrolls intheHMAincreasedbyan From 2001through2007,nonfarm but alsorecovered atafasterrate. recession thanthenationasawhole heavily impactedbythemostrecent to-mid 2000s, theHMAwas more After aneconomicboomintheearly-

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in thesectordeclinedbyanaverage jobs During theperiod,number of in HMAfrom2008through2010. thejobslost more thanone-thirdof 11.7 percent,in2007,accountedfor HMA anddeclinedby15,100jobs, or payrollsbefore totalnonfarm inthe sector,struction whichpeakedayear nation. Themining, logging, andcon declineforthe the 1.9-percentrateof year from2008through2010,double 47,200jobs, or3.8percent,a erage of payrollsNonfarm declinedbyanav­­ thelate2000s, however.recession of tothenational particularly susceptible lefttheHMA dential construction speculative resi­ An abundanceof is thelargest private employer inthe Loma LindaUniversity Health, which 9,875jobs, or5.9percent,ayear.of period, andexpanded byanaverage sector addedthemostjobsduring the The educationandhealthservices 1.6percent,annually,of forthenation. through 2014,well above theaverage jobs, or3.8percent,ayear from2011 45,700 increased byanaverage of payrollsHMA since2011.Nonfarm to astrongeconomicrecovery inthe facilities hascontributedsignificantly medical Development andexpansion of to alow in2010. sectorfromahighin2006 struction jobs inthemining, logging, andcon­ all son, thenationlost26percentof 60,100jobsin2011.Bycompari of 128,900jobsin2006toalow high of the housingcrisis, froma result of tion sectordeclined53percentasa in themining, logging, andconstruc jobs 32 percent. In total, the number of decreased atanaverage annual rateof mits (single-family plusmultifamily) residential­ the number of nearly allthejobslostinsector as subsectoraccountedfor construction 17,700,or18.9percent,ayear. The of building per­ - - - -

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Riv erside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 5 of CorrectionsandRehabilitation;LomaLindaUniversityHealth Economic Development Agency; U.S.DepartmentofDefense;California Sources: RiversideCountyEconomicDevelopment Agency; SanBernardinoCounty personnel, whoaregenerallynotincludedinnonfarmpayrollsurveydata. Center andFortIrwinNationalTraining Centerincludeciviliananduniformedmilitary Notes: Excludeslocalschooldistricts.DataforMarineCorps Air GroundCombat * Riverside-SanBernardino-OntarioHMA. Table 3. California DepartmentofCorrectionsCalifornia Riverside University ofCalifornia, Stater Bros. Markets Fort IrwinNationalTraining Center March AirReserveBase Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. Loma LindaUniversityHealth Marine CorpsAirGround CombatCenter County ofSanBernardino County ofRiverside and Rehabilitation Economic Conditions Population andHouseholds

Major Employersinthe Name ofEmployer

Continued

Riverside from the more expensive housing housing expensive more the from in-migration to linked highly become has HMA the in growth Population decade. previous the during a year percent, of 2.6 97,000, or average the 2010, since below 0.9 well percent, of or 40,550, increase annual average an reflecting million, 4.43 was HMA A jobs in2013. Temecula created500 in thecityof Temecula Valleypletion of Hospital 53-bed expansion in2012,andthecom­ Victorville, completeda in thecityof Valleytana in2013.Desert Hospital, Fon­ ing medicalcenterinthecityof anexist­ of in 2011andthereplacement Ontario Medical Centerinthecityof the224-bedVineyard completion of created acombined650jobswiththe in2011. KaiserPermanenteMurrieta opened a106-bedfacilityinthecityof HMA with14,750employees (Table 3), Government Government Wholesale &retail trade Government Government Wholesale &retail trade Education &healthservices Government Government Government Nonfarm Payroll Sector HMA* population of the Riverside Riverside of the population of May 1, s 2015, estimated the Annual Report 2013 Employees Number of 10,000 14,750 14,900 17,400 17,700 5,450 5,800 7,700 8,875 9,000

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and createbetween 2,000and4,000 expected tobecompletedinmid-2015 1.59 million-square-footfacilityis RanchoCucamonga.The the cityof anew logisticscenterin completion of iscurrently nearing Goodman Birtcher 2015,and HMA beforetheendof at itsdistributioncenterswithinthe that itwilladdacombined1,000jobs job gains. Amazonrecently announced sectorsareexpected tolead services utilities andtheeducationhealth annually. and Thetransportation 42,550jobs, or3.3percent, erage of moderate butremainstrongatanav ­ payrollfarm growth isexpected to During the3-year forecastperiod,non­ is expected tobecompletein2018. going a$363millionexpansion, which Community Hospitaliscurrently under­ complete asearly as2016.Riverside office buildingthatisprojectedtobe which isan80,000-square-footmedical a new medicalcenter, thefirstphaseof building of forthepurposes Murrieta landinthecityof chased 37acresof jobs. KaiserPermanente cities in the HMA, including Riverside, Riverside, including HMA, the in cities largest the 1-year aresult, data). As [ACS] Survey Community American (2013 residents 500,000 than more with areas metropolitan for nation the in rate highest the area, metropolitan adifferent in jobs to commuting HMA of the employed residents of the cent 21 per approximately with Counties, Orange and Angeles of Los markets ® eety pur­­- recently -

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Riv erside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 6 Population andHouseholds

Continued From 2000 to 2010, to metro four only 2000 From 2010the Census. in 15.9 respectively, 4.4 percent, and to Census 2000 the in respectively, 13.7 from 3.1 and creased percent, in Asia and America Latin in born HMA the in of residents percentage The HMA. the in growth ulation pop to contributor asignificant been also has Asia, and America Latin from primarily in-migration, tional Interna south. and east the to tains Moun Jacinto San the and north the to Mountains Bernardino San the by bounded roughly area an in border western the near concentrated are Corona, and Ontario, Bernardino, San relatively high unemployment in the the in unemployment high relatively job growth, 2010.since strong Despite growth population of total percent 17 for accounted and 6,850 ayear only averaged has in-migration Net growth. population of total percent 30 for 17,200 accounted and ayear which averagedmigration, only slowed in- net recession national recent most of the impact larger the 2010 to and job losses 2007 as from of 57,300, average an to 1.4 or percent, slowed growth Population Asia. and America Latin from and Counties, Orange and Angeles Los from ticularly par residents, new attracted housing affordable relatively with combined conditions economic strong as growth population of total percent 66 for 76,950averaged accounted ayear, and in-migration net period, the During 1, July 2007). as-of estimates tion popula Bureau Census data, Census (2000 annually 3.1 or people, percent, of 112,100 average an by panded ex HMA 2007, to the 2000 From however. periods, distinct two into the decade was divided during growth Population HMA. the than residents more added nation the in areas politan

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particularly large supply of develop a where submarket, Riverside The in-migration. of net because entirely almost are submarkets the between population growth in differences The 2006. since latter of the that ing exceed former of the population the and 2000, since year each submarket Bernardino San the than rate faster a at expanding submarket Riverside the with HMA, the within stantially sub varied has growth Population period. of the much for residents new potential to HMA the of attractiveness the limited Counties Orange and Angeles Los in prices housing lower-than-usual and HMA, annually, from 2007 to 2010. to 2007 The from annually, 15,650, only but 0.8 or percent, 2007 to 2000 from annually 2.1 percent, or 39,000 people, averaged market sub Bernardino San the in growth 2007. Population since period of the formost out-migration net perienced ex has submarket the and cession, re the after it adisadvantage at put (2013 ACS 1-yearsubmarket data), Riverside the in than older 7 years is units housing for age median the where submarket, the in inventory ing old hous relatively The 2000s. of the formuch in-migration net perienced ex submarket Bernardino San The 2010. since cent, 1.2 or of 26,450, per increase annual average an 2.32 million, at estimated currently is submarket Riverside of the 2010. to population 2007 The from ayear percent, 2.0 or people, of 41,600 average an and 2007 to 2000 from ayear 4.1 or percent, residents, of 73,100 average an added submarket Riverside The 2000. since year each in-migration net experienced has construction, new formore allows border western the near able land ­- ­- ­- ­-

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Riv erside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 7 Figure 5. Figure 4. Sources: 2000and2010—2000 Censusand 2010Census;current—estimates byanalyst Note: Thecurrent dateisMay1,2015. Sources: 2000and2010—2000Census2010Census;current—estimates byanalyst Note: ThecurrentdateisMay1,2015. Population andHouseholds 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000 500,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 50,000 50,000 0 0

Submarket Number ofHouseholdsbyTenure inthe 2000 toCurrent Number ofHouseholdsbyTenure inthe 2000 2000 , 2000toCurrent

Continued Renter Renter the Riverside submarket is currently currently is submarket Riverside the in of households 2010. number The to 2000 from annually percent, 2.3 or 26,300, averaged growth household 2010. since comparison, cent, By of 10,900, 0.8 or per increase annual average an 1.35 at million, estimated is HMA the in of households number of May 1, As 2015, the 2000s. late the since slowed significantly has and the HMA in rored population growth mir generally has growth Household 2010. of 14,100, crease since 0.7 or percent, in annual average an 2.11 million, at estimated currently is submarket Bernardino San of the population estimated at 724,000, an increase of increase an 724,000, at estimated 2010 2010 Owner Owner San Bernardino San Bernardino Riverside Current Current Submarket ­-

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ership rates in the Riverside and San San and Riverside the in rates ership 2010. in homeown The 65.2 percent from down percent, 60.6 at estimated currently is HMA the in rate ership homeown the and 2000s, late the in nation the in rates foreclosure highest of some the experienced HMA The 2010. to 2000 from year each 1.5 or percent, 8,300, of average an 2010,since from down of 3,475 0.6 ayear,increase or percent, 629,300, at an estimated currently is of households number the market, sub Bernardino 2010. San the In to 2000 from annually 3.1or percent, 2010, of 18,000, average below the well 7,425 1.1 year, or since per percent by an average of 12,050, or 1.6 percent, of 12,050, 1.6 average or an by percent, expanding submarket Riverside the year, with each 18,250, 1.3 or percent, average to expected is HMA the in Household growth 1.2or percent. annually, residents of 25,000 average an increase to expected is which ket, submar Bernardino San the outpace to ayear, continuing 1.8or percent, of 43,650 average residents, an increase to expected is submarket Riverside May by 1, 2018. The million 4.64 reach and of 1.5 68,650, or percent, average an by expand to expected is HMA of the population The period. forecast 3-year the during HMA the in and accelerating population growth in-migration net increased to tribute con to expected are counties coastal nearby the in prices housing rising sharply and job growth Continued data. show additional report of the Tables DP-2 DP-3 and end the at date. current the to 2000 from ket submar each in tenure by households of number 5 show the 4and Figures 2010, in 62.7and respectively. percent 67.4 from down respectively, percent 58.4 62.6 and at percent, estimated currently are submarkets Bernardino ­

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Riv erside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 8 Population andHouseholds estimates byanalyst Sources: 2000and2010—2000Census2010Census;currentforecast— Notes: ThecurrentdateisMay1,2015.forecast2018. * Riverside-SanBernardino-OntarioHMA. Figure 6. Notes: ThecurrentdateisMay1,2015.forecast2018. * Riverside-SanBernardino-OntarioHMA. Figure 7. estimates byanalyst Sources: 2000and2010—2000Census2010Census;currentforecast— Housing Market TrendsHousing Average annual change Average annual change 100,000 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 0 0

2000 toForecast Population andHouseholdGrowth inthe Components ofPopulationChangeinthe HMA,* 2000toForecast 2000 to2010 2000 to2010

Continued Population Population the submarket has stabilizedandthe new homessold in The number of April 2010. 2.3 percent,down from3.8percentin the salesvacancy rateisestimatedat May 2015, since thelate2000s. Asof inventory andincreasinghomeprices excess allowed of fortheabsorption has tion innew homeconstruction but improving asasignificantreduc ­ Riverside submarketiscurrently soft The saleshousingmarketinthe Sales Market—RiversideSubmarket 2010 tocurrent 2010 tocurrent Households Households Current toforecast Current toforecast Riverside Riverside HMA,*

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from 2000 to the forecast date. forecast the to 2000 from HMA, the in change population of components 7shows the Figure and HMA, the in growth household and 6shows population Figure date. 2010 current from the to than rate slower aconsiderably at but HMA, the throughout decline to continue to expected is rate homeownership 6,125, ayear. The 1.0 or percent of average an by expanding market sub Bernardino San the a year, and cent, to$407,600, upfrom$391,200, anew homeincreased 4per­ price of previous 12months. Theaverage sales down 8percentfrom4,225 duringthe the 12monthsendingApril2015, submarket decreasedto3,900 during new homes soldinthe number of levels inthemid-2000s, however. The homes remainwell below thepeak sales andaverage sale pricesfornew thelate2000s. New home recession of since bottomingoutafterthenational average salespricehastrendedupward ­- -

Riv erside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 9 Sales Market—RiversideSubmarket Market TrendsHousing Continued of anew homeincreasedto$405,900, of 2010 through2014,theaverage price annually to$307,100in2009.From 14percent declined anaverage of $481,600in2006,butthen high of annually, from$266,400in2000toa 10percent increased anaverage of anew home The average salespriceof each year from2012through2014. 4,075new homessold An average of 3,075in2011. annually toalow of 31percent declining anaverage of 7,750 in2000to28,5502005,before 30percent,from age annual rateof new homessoldincreasedatanaver­ ments bytheanalyst). Thenumber of however (CoreLogic, Inc., withadjust­ averaged 49,000ayear from2000 existing homessold The number of year from 2009through2011. through 2014,down from19,750 a sales averaged 5,450ayear from2012 REO through 2011.Thenumber of 43,050eachyear from2009 of through 2014,down fromanaverage homes soldeachyear from2012 38,500existing 2014. Anaverage of during the12monthsendingApril a 5-percentincreasefrom$295,300 ing the12monthsendingApril2015, submarket increasedto$308,600dur­ anexisting homeinthe sales priceof cent, from3,325to2,575.Theaverage REOsalesdeclined23per­ number of during theprevious 12months, asthe 2015, down 7percentfrom37,850 during the12monthsendingApril sold inthesubmarkettotaled35,250 existing homes period. Thenumber of has increasedeachyear duringthe anexisting home age salespriceof thedecline, andtheaverfor much of ­ tate owned (REO)saleshave accounted reales­ Rapidly decliningnumbers of 2011. have decreasedsincetheendof Existing homesalesinthesubmarket an average 6percent. annual increaseof - - - - -

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cent from2000comparedwithan an average 16per­ annual increaseof submarket peakedat$427,200in2006, anexisting homeinthe sales priceof decline was much steeper. Theaverage housing bubbleandthefollowing market increasedmoreduringthe anexisting homeinthesub­ price of the nationaltrend,average sales through 2008.Whencomparedwith 9,925ayearan average from2006 of 960 ayear from2000through2005to sales increasedfromanaverage of REO bubble burst.Thenumber of 2006 through2008,whenthehousing 34,200eachyearaverage from of through 2005beforedecliningtoan reaching a high of 13thinthenation reaching ahigh of August 2008throughApril 2010, highest countiesinthenation from into REOstatuswas amongthe25 in foreclosure)orhadtransitioned quent (90ormoredays delinquentor submarket thatwere seriously delin­ homeloansin the The percentage of distressedproperties. of absorption who have contributedtorelatively rapid attractive areaforrealestateinvestors, has madethesubmarketaparticularly the HMA’s strongeconomicrecovery than theRiverside submarket,although more severely bythehousing crisis Few areasinthenationwere impacted 4 percentayear forthenation. compared withanaverage increaseof an average 8percent annual increaseof the submarketincreasedto$306,600, anexisting homein average priceof 2009. From 2010through2014,the was only 7percentfrom2007through but theannual decline forthenation $211,600in2009, percent toalow of clined atanaverage 21 annual rateof existing homeinthesubmarketde­ an burst, theaverage salespriceof for thenation.Afterhousingbubble average 8percent annual increaseof -

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Riv erside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 10 Sources: U.S.Census Bureau,BuildingPermitsSurvey; estimatesbyanalysts Notes: Includestownhomes. Currentincludesdata through April 2015. Figure 8. 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 5,000 Sales Market—RiversideSubmarket Market TrendsHousing 0

Single-Family HomesPermittedinthe 2000 2000 toCurrent

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006 Continued 2008 to a high of 34percentin2012, 2008 toahighof allhomesalesin from 19percentof by absenteeowners roseeachyear, homepurchasesmade percentage of 9.3percentinJanuary 2010.The of April2014anddown fromahigh of April 2015,down from5.0percentas national ratewas 4.2percentasof in January 2010.Bycomparison,the 19.1percent and well below thehighof from 3.7percentduringApril2014 the submarketwas 3.0percent,down however. April2015,theratein Asof 2013, national ratesinceFebruary the submarkethasbeenbelow the Financial Services, Inc.). Theratein 2009(BlackKnight during September 2007 hasgenerallypermitted, trended homes measured bythenumber of as Single-family homeconstruction, decreasing to29percentin2014. cent inboth2012and2013,before 31per­ 23 percentin2008toahighof nationally increased eachyear, from purchases madebyabsenteeowners home the analyst). Thepercentage of Wood Company, withadjustmentsby to investors (Metrostudy, AHanley thesubmarket ing theattractiveness of price growth begantoaccelerate, reduc­ again to27percentin2014ashome declined to33percentin2013and purchasesmadebyabsenteeowners of distressed properties. Thepercentage investment in partially becauseof

2008

2009

2010 Riverside Submarket,

2011

2012

2013

2014

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has been concentrated in the western has beenconcentratedinthewestern 2006 (Figure8).Recent construction homes eachyear from2002through 2011 butbelow 25,350 theaverage of homes eachyear from2008through 3,375 2014, upfromanaverage of eachyear permitted from2012through 4,200single-family homeswere of data).Anaveragemonths (preliminary 4,450 homesduringtheprevious 12 a9-percentincreasefrom permitted, 2015, 4,850single-family homeswere During the12monthsendingApril the housingboominmid-2000s. historically highlevels reachedduring 2011,butremainsbelow the end of upward inthesubmarketsince nificant demand isalsoexpected for $250,000 to$399,999(Table 4).Sig­ for single-family homespricedfrom the forecastperiodandbegreatest mated toincreaseeachyear during thedemand.Demandisesti­ of part willmeet currently underconstruction homes (Table 1).The2,175homes demand isexpected for30,100new During the3-year forecastperiod, rently at$400,000. starting to 3,375squarefeet,withpricescur­ neighborhood range insizefrom2,425 New homesinthePresidioPoint size from1,700to2,925squarefeet. $351,000 fornew homesrangingin at Gate neighborhood,pricesstart Point neighborhoods. IntheMission cludes theMissionGateandPresidio the 1,400-homecommunity, whichin­ currently developing thefirstphaseof inlate2014.KBHomesis restarted Riverside, was haltedin2008but planned community inthecityof Mountain Ranch,a785-acremaster- atSpring construction Preliminary ing thelate2000s. several developments thatstalleddur­ thesubmarket, includingat of part

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Riv erside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 11 Sources: 2000and 2010—2000Censusand2010Census; current—estimatesbyanalyst Note: Thecurrent dateisMay1,2015. Figure 9. 10.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 Sales Market—RiversideSubmarket Market TrendsHousing Table 4. Notes: The2,175homescurrentlyunderconstructionandaportionoftheesti­ Source: Estimatesbyanalyst forecast periodisMay1,2015,to2018. forecast demand.Excludesanestimateddemandfor300mobilehomes.The mated 71,100othervacantunitsinthesubmarketwilllikelysatisfysomeof

2000 toCurrent Rental Vacancy RatesintheRiversideSubmarket, 850,000 700,000 550,000 400,000 250,000

From Estimated DemandforNewMarket-RateSalesHousing in theRiversideSubmarket 2000 Price Range($) 7.2 and higher 399,999 849,999 699,999 549,999 To Continued the Riverside submarketarecurrently Rental housingmarketconditionsin rates inthesubmarketranged from vacancy 2015,apartment of quarter (MPF Research). Duringthefirst 2010 of rate duringthefirstquarter in 2014butdown fromthe7.0-percent up from4.3percentduringsameperiod 2015, of cent duringthefirstquarter 4.5per­ anced, withavacancy rate of rate. marketisalsobal­ Theapartment ments isnotably lower thantheoverall data), butthevacancy­ rateforapart in thesubmarket(2013ACS 1-year therentalmarket mately 51percentof Single-family homescompriseapproxi ­ 9.5 percentinApril2010(Figure9). estimated at6.0percent,down from overall rentalvacancy rateiscurrently ing vacancy ratessince2010.The hascontributedtodeclin­ construction balanced asrelatively slow multifamily Rental Market—RiversideSubmarket 2010 9.5 Demand During theForecast Period Units of 11,900 1,500 2,975 4,475 8,925 Percent of Total 10.0 15.0 30.0 40.0 5.0 Current 6.0 -

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defined CoachellaValley marketareato 3.7 percentintheMPFResearch- theforecastdemand. satisfy someof may reenterthesalesmarketand in theinventory, which of aportion 71,100 othervacant unitsarecurrently $400,000 to$549,999.Anestimated single-family homespricedfrom campus. Theremainingstudents with only 9,425students living on 29,000full-timestudents, enrollment of 2014,thethreeschoolshadatotal of thefall students. Asof presence of versity, isnotably impactedbythe Baptist University; Uni­ andLaSierra Riverside; California, California of side, whichishometotheUniversity River­ The rentalmarketinthecityof average rentat$954. Orange County border, hadthelowest and approximately 60milesfromthe theSanJacinto Mountains the eastof ella Valley marketarea,which isto with Orange County, andtheCoach rectly onhighway 91neartheborder the Corona market area, which sits di rent inthesubmarketwas $1,367in 2015, thehighestaverage of quarter Orange Counties. Duringthefirst commuting timetoLosAngeles and submarket arehighly with correlated 2014. Average rentsinthe of quarter increase from$1,091duringthefirst 2015,a7-percent of the firstquarter in thesubmarketwas $1,165during Elsinore marketarea.Theaverage rent 6.3 percentintheHemet-Perris-Lake

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Riv erside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 12 Sources: U.S.CensusBureau,Building PermitsSurvey;estimatesbyanalyst Notes: Excludestownhomes.Current includesdatathrough April 2015. Figure 10. 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 Rental Market—RiversideSubmarket Market TrendsHousing 0

2000

Multifamily UnitsPermittedinthe 2000 toCurrent

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006 Continued currently have notable expansions of currently have notableexpansions of theschools forecast periodasnoneof is likely toincreaseslightly during the studentsontherentalmarket pact of anyareainthesubmarket.Theim of the largest year-over-year rentgrowth area increased8percent,to$1,192, submarket. Theaverage rentinthe 3.9 percent,thesecondlowest inthe side, vacancy hadanapartment rateof River­ area, whichincludesthecityof 2015,theRiverside market of quarter thefirst their respective schools. Asof households intheareassurrounding Riverside inanestimated7,000renter thecityof thetotalpopulationof of account forapproximately 5percent 2007 data).An April 2014(preliminary units duringthe12monthsending units were upfrom1,050 permitted, ending April2015,1,725multifamily (Figure 10).Duringthe12months themid-2000s well below thelevels of 2011butremains ward sincetheendof hasgenerallypermitted, trendedup ­ multifamily units by thenumber of asmeasured Multifamily construction, growth inthearea. a ratecomparabletooverall population enrollment isprojectedtoincreaseat on-campus housingplannedandtotal

2008

2009 Riverside Submarket,

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015 -

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at $1,400forone-bedroomunits, $1,575 opened in late 2014 with rents starting Riverside, ment projectinthecityof Viano atRiverwalk, a264-unitapart market’s borderwithOrange County. thesub­ 2014 were within40milesof the submarketfrom2011through allmultifamily in unitspermitted of ments, andapproximately 80percent ­ apart hasconsistedof construction 2006. Nearly alltherecentmultifamily units eachyear from2002through 2010 butbelow 4,900 theaverage of mitted eachyear from2007through 1,450 unitsper­­up fromanaverage of each year from2011through2014, 1,550unitswere average permitted of of thedemand. of willlikely satisfypart construction 1,725 rentalunitscurrently under from $1,525to$1,724(Table 5).The units, withmonthly rentsranging and bestrongest fortwo-bedroom increase eachyear duringtheperiod ket (Table 1).Demandisexpected to rental unitsintheRiverside submar demand isexpected for9,000new During the3-year forecastperiod, in 2016,withrentsyet tobedetermined. ongoing andisexpected tobecomplete units,which includes464apartment is theproject, of link station.Construction MainCoronaMetro­ from theNorth target renterswhocommute toand Corona,was designedto the cityof Street Metro, amixed-use projectin three-bedroom townhome units. Main for two-bedroom units, and$2,500for $1,500 forone-bedroomunits, $1,700 at August 2014withrentsstarting at Paseo DelSolwas completedin Temecula, the288-unit Vineyardsof for three-bedroomunits. Inthecity for two-bedroom units, and$1,950 -

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Riv erside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 13 Rental Market—RiversideSubmarket Market TrendsHousing Table 5. Source: Estimatesbyanalyst some oftheestimateddemand.TheforecastperiodisMay1,2015,to2018. Notes: Numbers maynotaddtototalsbecauseofrounding. The 1,725unitscurrently under construction willlikelysatisfy Monthly Gross Total 1,390 ormore 1,190 to1,389 990 to1,189 Rent ($) Zero Bedrooms

Estimated DemandforNewMarket-RateRentalHousinginthe During theForecastPeriod Demand Units of 450 130 270 45 Monthly Gross Total 1,950 ormore 1,750 to1,949 1,550 to1,749 1,350 to1,549 Continued soft butimproving. Thesubmarket submarketiscurrently Bernardino The saleshousingmarketintheSan Sales Market—SanBernardino Submarket through 2005. The average salesprice 7,150 soldeachyear from2000 age of through 2011butwell below theaver­ 1,575homesfrom2009 average of from 2012through2014,up an 1,725new homessoldannually of adjustments bytheanalyst). Anaverage from $392,400(CoreLogic, Inc., with increased 8percentto$424,500,up anew home average salespriceof during theprevious 12months. The to 1,725,down 1percentfrom1,750 homes soldinthesubmarketdecreased new ending April2015,thenumber of in themid-2000s. Duringthe 12months but remains well below the peak levels stabilized sincebottomingoutin2011 new homessoldhas The number of April 2010. percent, down from3.1percentin in thesubmarketisestimatedat2.2 March 2015,thesalesvacancy rate areas inthenation,however. Asof affected significantly harderthan most housing crisis. Thesubmarketwas afterthe andquickerabsorption tory excessresulted inlower inven levels of ­ ket duringthehousingboom,which thanthe Riversideconstruction submar­ generally experienced lessspeculative Rent ($) One Bedroom Demand Units of 3,150 1,575 160 630 790 Monthly Gross Total 2,125 ormore 1,925 to2,124 1,725 to1,924 1,525 to1,724 Rent ($) Two Bedrooms

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$222,300 in 2000 to a peak of $445,700 $445,700 $222,300 in2000toapeakof 12percent,from age annual rateof anew homeincreasedatanaver­ of 2008 beforeincreasing toanaverage 28,200 from2006through average of 2000 through2005butdeclined toan the submarketaveraged 46,200from existing homessoldin number of the previous 12-monthperiod.The $268,700, upfrom$244,700during isting homeincreased10percent,to anex­ and theaverage salespriceof the decline, sales accountedformostof REO percent declineinthenumber of during theprevious 12months. A30- 7 percentfromthe28,150homessold 12 monthsendingApril2015,down to 26,300 market decreased during the existing homessoldinthesub­ ber of increased duringtheperiod.Thenum­ existing homeshasconsistently price of thedecline, andtheaverageof sales REOsaleshasaccountedformost of declineinthenumber 2009. Asharp declined eachyear sincetheendof submarkethas in theSanBernardino existing homessold The number of 12percent. increase of rose to$413,500,anaverage annual a new home 2014, theaverage priceof $292,300 in2011.From 2012through 8percenttoalow of annual rateof in 2006,butdeclinedatanaverage Demand Units of 4,500 1,125 2,250 220 900 Riverside Monthly Gross Total 2,450 ormore 2,250 to2,449 2,050 to2,249 1,850 to2,049 Three orMore Bedrooms Rent ($) Submarket Demand Units of 900 180 220 400 90 - -

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Riv erside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 14 Sources: U.S.Census Bureau,BuildingPermitsSurvey; estimatesbyanalysts Notes: Includestownhomes. Currentincludesdata through April 2015. Figure 11. 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 6,000 8,000 2,000 4,000 Sales Market—SanBernardinoSubmarket Market TrendsHousing 0

2000

Single-Family HomesPermittedinthe Submarket,

2001

2002

2003 2000toCurrent

2004

2005

2006

2007 an existing homepeakedat$349,700 REO sales. Theaverage salespriceof been highly linkedtothenumber of riod. Existinghomepriceshave also 5,000ayearaverage during thepe of REOsales, whichdecreasedtoan of rapidly decliningnumbers because of 2012 through2014,almostentirely 28,350ayearto anaverage from of 2011. Existinghomesalesdecreased 16,750from2009through average of 2006 through2008andagaintoan 6,075ayearto anaverage from of 2,125 ayear from2000through2005 market increasedfromanaverage of REOsalesinthesub The number of 32,650from2009through2011. of of distressedproperties. Thepercentage of tivity contributedtorapidabsorption submarket, substantialinvestment ac ing crisis, although,asintheRiverside the nationasawholeduringhous­ dino submarketnotably harderthan Foreclosures­ impactedtheSanBernar to $261,100. an average 14percent, annual rateof anexisting homeincreasedbyat of 2011 through2014,theaverage price REOsalesdeclinedfrom number of $175,300in2009.Asthe a low of 21percentannuallyan average to of 18percentfrom2000,butdeclined of in 2006,anaverage annual increase Continued 2008

2009

2010 San Bernardino

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015 - - - - -

large part because of investment in becauseof large part 31percentin2012, to ahighof allhomesalesin2008 16 percentof sentee owners roseeachyear, from homepurchasesmadebyab­ age of rate sinceJanuary 2013.Thepercent 2009 buthasbeenbelow thenational rate fromMay 2008throughNovember ket was morethandoublethenational Services, Inc.). Therateinthesubmar­ January 2010(BlackKnightFinancial 18.1percentin well below thehighof 3.7 percentduringApril2014and April2015,down from percent asof transitioned intoREOstatuswas 3.0 were seriously delinquentorhad homeloansinthesubmarketthat of the housingcrisis. since projects thathadbeendormant thesubmarketandincludesseveral of concentrated inthesouthwest corner Recent activity permitting hasbeen each year from2002through2006. below 12,300 homes theaverage of year from2008through2011butwell 1,450homeseach from anaverage of each year from2012through2014,up single-family homeswere permitted 1,850 data).Anaverage(preliminary of 1,875 duringtheprevious 12months a33-percent increasefrom permitted, 2015, 2,500single-family homeswere During the12monthsendingApril 2011(Figure11). year sincetheendof has increasedinthesubmarketeach homespermitted, ured bythenumber of Single-family homebuilding, asmeas­ by theanalyst). Wood Company, withadjustments to investors (Metrostudy, AHanley thesubmarket ing theattractiveness of price growth begantoaccelerate, reduc­ again to23percentin2014ashome declined to29percentin2013and purchasesmadebyabsenteeowners of distressed properties. Thepercentage -

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Riv erside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 15 Sales Market—SanBernardinoSubmarket Market TrendsHousing Table 6. Source: Estimatesbyanalyst 2018. 1, May to forecast period isMay1,2015, an estimateddemandfor 150mobilehomes.The forecast demand.Excludes mated 58,200 other vacant units inthesubmarket willlikelysatisfysomeofthe currently under construction andaportion oftheesti­ homes 1,325 The Notes: analyst Sources: 2000and 2010—2000Censusand2010Census; current—estimatesby Note: Thecurrent dateisMay1,2015. Figure 12. 10.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 825,000 675,000 525,000 375,000 225,000

From Estimated DemandforNewMarket-RateSales the ForecastPeriod Housing intheSanBernardinoSubmarket  Submarket, 2000toCurrent Rental Vacancy Ratesinthe 2000 Price Range($) 7.3 and higher 824,999 674,999 524,999 374,999 To three phasestotaling1,200homes. recession, isexpected toconsistof the the development sincetheendof community within tobreakground Ontario. Park Place,city of thefirst master-planned development inthe New ModelColony, a13square-mile 2000s, hasresumedat construction After beinghaltedduringthelate ment vacancy rateinthesubmarket 2015,theapart of the firstquarter submarket aretight,however. During the of and conditionsinmostparts inventoryapartment tobeabsorbed theavailableallowed formuch of inthelate2000s family construction in April2010(Figure12).Slow multi­ at 4.7percent,down from8.8percent rental vacancy ratecurrently estimated currently balanced,withanoverall submarketare the SanBernardino Rental housingmarketconditionsin Rental Market—SanBernardinoSubmarket Continued 2010 8.8 Demand Units of 1,275 1,900 3,800 5,075 630 San Bernardino Percent of Total During 10.0 15.0 30.0 40.0 5.0 Current 4.7 - -

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however. Anestimated58,200other priced from$375,000to$524,999, is alsoexpected forsingle-family homes $374,999 (Table 6).Significantdemand family homespricedfrom$225,000to forsingle- forecast periodandgreatest the be highestduringthethirdyear of the demand.Demandisestimatedto of willmeetpart under construction (Table 1).The1,325homescurrently homes duringthe3-year forecastperiod Demand isexpected for12,800new low $400,000s. inthe square feetandpricesstarting ing from1,600squarefeetto4,000 withhomesrang­ under construction, The 432-homefirstphaseiscurrently to the north of the San Bernardino theSanBernardino of to thenorth market area,whichis San Bernardino average rentintheVictorville-Outer at $1,451and$1,403,respectively. The 2015, of rents duringthefirstquarter thesubmarket,hadhighest of County borderinthesouthwest corner areas, whichareneartheLosAngeles Upland andOntario-Chinomarket County. TheRanchoCucamonga- commuting distancetoLosAngeles ket andaregenerally with correlated substantially throughoutthesubmar 2014.Rents vary of ing thefirstquarter a 4-percentincreasefrom$1,139dur­ 2015, of $1,192 duringthefirstquarter The average rentin thesubmarketwas marketarea. in theSanBernardino Redlands marketareato5.0percent cent intheMPFResearch-defined Research). Ratesranged from2.9per­ during sameperiodin2014(MPF was 3.9percent,down from4.5percent the forecastdemand. the salesmarketandsatisfysomeof whichmay reenter tory, of aportion vacant unitsarecurrently intheinven­ - -

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Riv erside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 16 Sources: U.S.CensusBureau,BuildingPermitsSurvey;estimates byanalyst Notes: Excludestownhomes.Currentincludesdatathrough April 2015. Figure 13. 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 500 Rental Market—SanBernardinoSubmarket Market TrendsHousing 0

2000

Multifamily UnitsPermittedinthe Submarket,

2001

2002

2003 2000 toCurrent

2004

2005

2006 2008 through2011,butbelow the 720unitsfrom double theaverage of from 2012through2014morethan 1,350unitswas average permitted of data).An April 2014(preliminary units duringthe12monthsending units were upfrom1,225 permitted, ending April2015,1,700multifamily (Figure 13).Duringthe12months 2011 sincetheendof units permitted, multifamily measured bythenumber of creased multifamily as construction, marketconditionswithin­ apartment Builders have respondedtotightening was $813,thelowest inthesubmarket. from theLosAngeles Countyborder, Mountains, approximately 60miles 2007 theborder 2014 within40milesof from2012through units permitted themultifamily mately 86percentof thesubmarket, withapproxi of part highly concentrated inthesouthwest multifamily hasbeen construction year from2000through2007.Recent each 2,225unitspermitted average of

2008 Continued

2009 San Bernardino

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015 - -

starting at$1,500,two-bedroom units starting $1,400, one-bedroomunitswithrents at studio unitswithrentsstarting also completedinlate2014andoffers Montclair, was 385 unitsinthecityof whichconsistsof Montclair North, for four-bedroomunits. ThePaseos at for three-bedroomunits, and$2,575 $2,025 fortwo-bedroom units, $2,300 at$1,550forone-bedroomunits,start Chino. Rents in late2014thecityof at The Preserve, which was completed ket includethe335-unitHomecoming Recent developments inthesubmar apartments. consists of the recentmultifamily construction with LosAngeles County. Nearly all will likely satisfy some of thedemand. will likely satisfysomeof rental unitscurrently underconstruction $1,500 to$1,699(Table 7).The1,700 units, withmonthly rentsrangingfrom iod andbestrongest fortwo-bedroom theper­ to increaseduringeachyear of period (Table 1).Demandisexpected submarket duringthe3-year forecast rental unitsintheSanBernardino Demand isexpected for7,950new at$2,000. to start for three-bedroomunitsareexpected to $1,900fortwo-bedroom units. Rents one-bedroom unitsandfrom$1,750 ranging from$1,300to$1,725for complete inOctober2015,withrents Redlands, isexpected tobe city of complex inthe a 306-unitapartment atCirca2020, $2,350. Construction at bedroom unitswithrentsstarting at$1,700,andthree- with rentsstarting -

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Riv erside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 17 Rental Market—SanBernardinoSubmarket Market TrendsHousing Data Profiles Table DP-1. Sources: U.S.CensusBureau;DepartmentofHousingandUrban Development;estimatesbyanalyst and the12monthsthrough April 2015.MedianFamilyIncomesare for 2009and2013.Thecurrent dateisMay1,2015. Employment data represent annual averages for 2000, 2010, rounding. of because totals to add not may Notes: Numbers NA =datanotavailable. * Riverside-SanBernardino-OntarioHMA. Table 7. Source: Estimatesbyanalyst some of the estimated demand. The forecastperiodisMay1,2015,to2018. Notes: Numbers maynotaddtototalsbecauseofrounding. The 1,700unitscurrently under construction willlikelysatisfy Total resident employment Median FamilyIncome Rental vacancyrate Owner vacancyrate Total housingunits Percent renter Renter households Percent owner Owner households Total households Total population Nonfarm payroll jobs Unemployment rate Monthly Gross Total 1,370 ormore 1,170 to1,369 970 to1,169 Rent ($) Zero Bedrooms

Estimated DemandforNewMarket-RateRentalHousinginthe Submarket Riverside HMA,* Demand Units of 400 120 240 40 During theForecastPeriod Monthly Gross Total 1,925 ormore 1,725 to1,924 1,525 to1,724 1,325 to1,524 Rent ($) DataProfile, 2000toCurrent 1,186,043 1,034,812 3,254,821 1,349,142 One Bedroom Continued 345,347 689,465 995,100 2000 33.4% 66.6% 7.3% 2.8% 5.1% NA Demand Units of 2,775 1,400 140 560 700 1,500,344 1,297,878 4,224,851 1,144,700 1,610,242 $59,446 452,093 845,785 2010 34.8% 65.2% 13.7% 9.1% 3.5% Monthly Gross Total 2,100 ormore 1,900 to2,099 1,700 to1,899 1,500 to1,699 Rent ($) Two Bedrooms 1,532,000 1,353,300 4,431,000 1,303,000 1,783,000 Current $59,837 533,000 820,300 39.4% 60.6% 5.4% 2.3% 7.5% Demand Units of 3,975 2,000 200 800 990 2000 to2010 Average AnnualChange(%) San Bernardino 2.4 2.7 2.1 2.3 2.6 1.4 1.8 NA Monthly Gross Total 2,425 ormore 2,225 to2,424 2,025 to2,224 1,825 to2,024 Three orMore Bedrooms Rent ($) 2010 toCurrent – 0.6 0.2 0.4 3.3 0.8 0.9 3.0 2.4 Demand Units of 800 160 200 360 80 Riv erside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 18 Data Profiles Sources: U.S.CensusBureau;DepartmentofHousingandUrbanDevelopment;estimatesbyanalyst current dateisMay1,2015. Notes: Numbersmaynotaddtototalsbecauseofrounding.MedianFamilyIncomesarefor1999,2009,and2013.The Sources: U.S.CensusBureau;DepartmentofHousingandUrbanDevelopment;estimatesbyanalyst current dateisMay1,2015. Notes: Numbersmaynotaddtototalsbecauseofrounding.MedianFamilyIncomesarefor1999,2009,and2013.The Table DP-3. Table DP-2. Median FamilyIncome Rental vacancyrate Owner vacancyrate Total housingunits Percent renter Rental households Percent owner Owner households Total households Total population Median FamilyIncome Rental vacancyrate Owner vacancyrate Total housingunits Percent renter Rental households Percent owner Owner households Total households Total population

Continued San Bernardino Submarket Riverside Submarket 1,545,387 1,709,434 $48,409 584,674 157,686 348,532 506,218 $46,574 601,369 187,661 340,933 528,594 2000 2000 31.1% 68.9% 35.5% 64.5% 7.2% 2.5% 7.3% 3.1% Data Profile Data Profile 2,189,641 2,035,210 $61,761 800,707 224,048 462,212 686,260 $57,046 699,637 228,045 383,573 611,618 2010 2010 , 2000toCurrent 32.6% 67.4% 37.3% 62.7% 9.5% 3.8% 8.8% 3.1% , 2000toCurrent 2,324,000 2,107,000 Current Current $60,830 823,100 271,000 453,000 724,000 $58,204 708,700 262,000 367,300 629,300 37.4% 62.6% 41.6% 58.4% 6.0% 2.3% 4.7% 2.2% 2000 to2010 2000 to2010 Average AnnualChange(%) Average AnnualChange(%) 2.5 3.2 3.6 2.9 3.1 3.5 2.0 1.5 2.0 1.2 1.5 1.8 2010 toCurrent 2010 toCurrent – 0.8 – 0.4 – 0.4 0.5 0.3 2.8 0.6 0.7 0.5 3.8 1.1 1.2 Riv erside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA • COMPREHENSIVE HOUSING MARKET ANALYSIS 19 not reflected intheresidential buildingpermits.not reflected are some unitsclassifiedascommercialstructures For buildingpermit. example, a differenttypeof orareissued or createdwithoutabuildingpermit occurs inanHMA.Someunitsareconstructed sarily allresidentialbuildingactivity that reflect Building Permits: donotneces­ Buildingpermits Census Bureau. specifiedas“other”vacantthe category bythe workers;or occasionaluse;usedbymigrant and but notoccupied;heldforseasonal,recreational, thereforeincludes unitsrentedorsold The term units thatarenotavailable forsaleorrent. analysis, othervacant unitsincludeallvacant Housing andUrbanDevelopment’s (HUD’s) Other Vacant Units:IntheU.S. of Department the development pipeline. orunitsin for unitscurrently underconstruction excess vacancies. Theestimatesdonotaccount theanalysis, growth, losses, and dateof the as-of the3-year forecastperiodgiven conditionson of needed toachieve abalancedmarketattheend thetotalhousingproduction the estimatesof buildingactivity.are notaforecastof Theyare Demand: Thedemandestimatesintheanalysis 28,2013. in theOMBBulletindatedFebruary Management andBudget (OMB) by theOfficeof isbasedupon thedelineationsestablished report The metropolitanstatisticalareadefinitioninthis Forecast period:5/1/2015–5/1/2018—Analyst’s date:5/1/2015—Analyst’sCurrent estimates 2010: 4/1/2010—U.S. Decennial Census 2000: 4/1/2000—U.S. Decennial Census Data DefinitionsandSources estimates www.huduser.gov/portal/ushmc/chma_archive.html For onothermarketareas, additionalreports please goto Casey M.Blount,Economist Contact Information CA_15.pdf CMARtables_Riverside-San_Bernardino-Ontario_ for thisHMA,goto For tothehousingmarket additionaldatapertaining single-family andmultifamily buildingpermits. theseestimatesareincludedinthediscussionsof of activity. thisadditionalconstruction Some an estimateof As aresult,theanalyst, throughdiligent fieldwork, makes on localeconomicandhousingmarketconditions. government officialswhoprovided dataandinformation sourcesandstatelocal appreciation tothoseindustry fied bysubsequentdevelopments. HUDexpresses its sources. Assuch,findingsorconclusionsmay bemodi datefromlocalandnational tion available ontheas-of ­ aspossiblebasedoninforma as thoroughandcurrent Market Analysis Division. The analysis andfindingsare lines andmethodsdeveloped byHUD’s Economicand The factualframework forthisanalysis follows theguide may beunderconsiderationbytheDepartment. insuranceproposalsthat anymortgage of acceptability regardingthe tomakedeterminations does notpurport housing marketconditionsandtrends. Theanalysis builders, mortgagees, withlocal andothersconcerned tion, findings, andconclusionsmay alsobeusefulto HUDinitsoperations. Thefactualinforma guidance of This analysis fortheassistanceand hasbeen prepared [email protected] 213–534–2622 Los Angeles HUDFieldOffice . huduser.gov/publications/pdf/ . -

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