Welsh Government A40 Llanddewi Velfrey to Penblewin Improvements WelTAG Stage 2 Impact Assessment Report
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This report takes into account the particular instructions and requirements of our client. It is not intended for and should not be relied upon by any third party and no responsibility is undertaken to any third party.
Contents
Page
1 Introduction 1 1.1 Overview 1 1.2 Proposed Approach 2
2 Legislation, Policy & Guidance 4 2.1 Overview 4 2.2 National Level 4 2.3 Regional Level 11 2.4 Local Level 14 2.5 Pembrokeshire Coast National Park Local Development Plan, 2010 15 2.6 Pembrokeshire Destination Management Plan 2013-2018 15
3 Scheme Context 16 3.1 Overview 16 3.2 Transport Network 16 3.3 Social and Cultural 33 3.4 Environmental 43 3.5 Economic 54
4 Evidence Base 65 4.1 Strategic Case 65 4.2 Problems 82 4.3 Objectives 87 4.4 Options 90 4.5 Transport Case 107 4.6 Comparative Performance 124 4.7 Sustainable Development Principle 127
5 Delivery Case 128 5.1 Overview 128 5.2 Project Plan 128 5.3 Governance, organisational structure and roles 132 5.4 Project management and reporting 137 5.5 Risk Management 138 5.6 Details of legal requirements 138 5.7 Communications and stakeholder engagement plan 139 5.8 Benefits realisation plan 139 5.9 Monitoring and evaluation plan 140
6 Financial Case 142 6.1 Overview 142 6.2 Cost profile 142 6.3 Allocation of cost 143 6.4 Cost assumptions 143 6.5 Sources of funding 144 6.6 Affordability and risk 144
7 Commercial Case 145 7.1 Overview 145 7.2 Procurement Strategy 145 7.3 Procurement Process 146 7.4 Contract Award 148 7.5 Contract length 150 7.6 Specification of required outputs 150 7.7 Allocation of risk 151 7.8 Contractual agreements 151
8 Recommendations 153 8.1 Preferred Option 153 8.2 Stage 3 WelTAG 154
Welsh Government A40 Llanddewi Velfrey to Penblewin Improvements WelTAG Stage 2 Impact Assessment Report
1 Introduction
1.1 Overview 1.1.1 The Welsh Transport Appraisal Guidance (WelTAG) was published in 2008 1 and provides guidance for use in the development, appraisal, and evaluation of transport related projects requiring Welsh Government funding. The Welsh Government consulted on revised guidance (‘WelTAG 2017’) between 8 December 2016 and 2 March 2017 2. 1.1.2 WelTAG 2017 aims to reflect current best practice and to provide a consistent approach with the Five Cases Business Model (the ‘Five Cases’). It also embeds the principles of the Well-being of Future Generations (Wales) Act 2015. It applies five stages of appraisal; the first three stages lead up to the selection of the proposed intervention. The final two stages cover the period during and after implementation, recording what actually happens and is achieved. 1.1.3 The output produced at the end of each WelTAG 2017 stage is a short document, known as a WelTAG Stage Report. The Stage Report should clearly present the information to assess each of the options presented, make the necessary decisions and take the actions needed at the end of that WelTAG stage. Running alongside the production of the WelTAG Stage Reports is the WelTAG Impacts Assessment Report (IAR). This report contains the more detailed analysis that lies behind the material presented in the Stage Reports. 1.1.4 Whilst not yet adopted at the time of this Stage 2 study, the Welsh Government has instructed the A40 Llanddewi Velfrey to Penblewin project team (‘the project team’) to apply WelTAG 2017 in undertaking its transport appraisal. 1.1.5 The WelTAG IAR is a live document which will be maintained and updated throughout the five WelTAG stages. Ultimately, the IAR will become a record of the appraisal work undertaken in reaching a preferred transport intervention and contain the evidence and detail behind the summary information within the Stage Report(s).
1 http://gov.wales/docs/det/policy/140923-weltag-guidance-en.pdf 2 Consultation Document Number: WG29831 (https://consultations.gov.wales/consultations/welsh-transport-appraisal- guidance-2017)
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1.1.6 AN IAR has been prepared in support of the Stage 1 Report (Strategic Outline Case) and in accordance with the WelTAG 2017 guidance, contains information which is proportionate to that early stage of the WelTAG process. 1.1.7 This document is the IAR in support of the Stage 2 Report (Outline Business Case), which builds on the work at Stage 1.
1.2 Proposed Approach 1.2.1 As outlined above, the approach taken to appraising potential transport interventions for the A40 Llanddewi Velfrey to Penblewin improvements (‘the Scheme’) follows the WelTAG 2017 Guidance. 1.2.2 The appraisal of options will therefore evolve applying the Five Cases, within the framework of the five WelTAG Stages, with a process of sifting and increased certainty to assist Welsh Government decision making as more information becomes available throughout the WelTAG Stages.
Methodology 1.2.3 The WelTAG 2017 document 3 sets out how the revised guidance should be applied. It clarifies that at Stage 2 (the current stage) an Outline Business Case should be presented, to further investigate the shortlisted options and then select a preferred option. 1.2.4 WelTAG 2017 clarifies that the contents of the Stage 2 Outline Business Case should include: a) A re-statement of the problem(s) that needs to be addressed; b) A review of any relevant changes that may have occurred in the transport system and its wider context since the completion of Stage One; c) A description of each of the shortlisted options and how each would meet the objectives set out in Stage One; d) A Five Cases assessment for each of the shortlisted options, with a separate presentation of the transport, delivery, financial and commercial case for each option; and e) Recommendations on the preferred option to be taken forward to WelTAG Stage 3 appraisal. 1.2.5 As aforementioned, the appraisal should be focused on the Five Cases, which include: 1. The strategic case: the case for change, fit with other policies and objectives.
3 https://consultations.gov.wales/sites/default/files/consultation_doc_files/161208-weltag-consultation-en.pdf
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2. The transport case: the social and cultural, environment and economic impacts of the change including a value for money assessment. 3. The delivery case: can the scheme be delivered? 4. The financial case: is the proposed spend affordable? 5. The commercial case: how can the scheme be procured, is it attractive to the private sector, is it commercially viable? 1.2.6 The methodology adopted in appraising the significance and scale of identified impacts uses the following seven-point scale. Table 1 WelTAG Seven Point Assessment Scale
Large Beneficial +++ Moderate Beneficial ++ Slight Beneficial + Neutral 0 Slight Adverse - Moderate Adverse -- Large Adverse ---
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2 Legislation, Policy and Guidance
2.1 Overview 2.1.1 This section explores the relevant legislation, policy and guidance, which provides the context for identifying the problems, developing the objectives and identifying, appraising, sifting and selecting appropriate transport interventions.
2.2 National Level
Taking Wales Forward 2016-2021 2.2.1 Taking Wales Forward is the latest Programme for Government and sets out how the Welsh Government will deliver more and better jobs through a stronger, fairer economy, improve and reform its public services, and build a united, connected and sustainable Wales. 2.2.2 It emphasises that the UK withdrawal from the European Union creates some uncertainty and challenges, but the Welsh Government’s mandate is clear: The Welsh Government’s relentless focus will be on driving improvement in the economy and public services. 2.2.3 The policy document includes a transport commitment to deliver improvements to the A40 in West Wales. Prosperity for All: The National Strategy 2.2.4 Taking Wales Forward is the latest Programme for Government and this strategy takes those key commitments, places them in a long-term context, and sets out how they fit with the work of the wider Welsh public service to lay the foundations for achieving prosperity for all. 2.2.5 The National Strategy explains how although Wales as a whole has grown strongly out of recession, there are areas of the country which have not seen the full benefits of growth. This has left some communities struggling to prosper and feeling isolated from other parts of Wales. Government has a key role in stimulating economic growth in areas of greatest need. 2.2.6 As part of the National Strategy is a commitment to deliver modern and connected infrastructure, including enhancements to the A40 in West Wales.
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Well-being of Future Generation (Wales) Act, 2015 2.2.7 This 2015 Act 4 is about improving the social, economic, environmental and cultural well-being of Wales with an overarching aim of creating a Wales we all want to live in, now and in the future. The Act puts in place seven well-being goals as shown in Figure 1
Figure 1 Well-being Goals 2.2.8 The 2015 Act places a duty on public bodies in Wales and those listed in the Act to work to improve the economic, social, environmental and cultural well-being of Wales. To help do this they must set and publish well-being objectives and think more about the long term, work better with people and communities and each other, look to prevent problems and take a more joined-up approach5. 2.2.1 The WelTAG 2017 guidance requires the consideration of the well- being goals and ways of working throughout appraisal.
4 http://gov.wales/topics/people-and-communities/people/future-generations-act/?lang=en 5 http://gov.wales/topics/people-and-communities/people/future-generations-act/?lang=en
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Wales Transport Strategy, 2008 2.2.2 Published in 2008, by the then Welsh Assembly Government, the overarching aim of the Wales Transport Strategy 6 is to promote sustainable transport networks that safeguard the environment while strengthening the country’s economic and social performance. The strategy has been prepared in the context of the One Wales programme, a progressive agenda for Wales. The strategy sets out a number of policy outcomes, delivered through strategic priorities. These include; 1. Reducing environment impacts from transport; 2. Integrating local transport; 3. Improving access between key settlements and sites; 4. Enhancing international connectivity; 5. Increasing safety and security. Reducing environment impacts from transport 2.2.3 Road schemes can contribute positively to reducing environmental impacts. For example, removing congestion by increasing road capacity and making journeys more reliable by providing better overtaking opportunities can reduce CO2 emissions. In addition, bypassing settlements can remove traffic and improve air quality for existing communities. Integrating local transport 2.2.4 Tackling congestion and ensuring journey reliability requires an integrated package of solutions that take account of a variety of local factors. This might include improvements to the public transport network, creation of more opportunities for walking and cycling, park and ride facilities and any future potential for road pricing. 2.2.5 Improving safety along transport corridors, by removing heavy traffic flows, can enhance opportunities for sustainable forms of travel, including walking and cycling. This is enshrined in Welsh Governments ‘Safe Routes in Communities scheme’.
6 http://gov.wales/docs/det/publications/140909-transport-strategy-en.pdf
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Improving access between key settlements and sites 2.2.6 The most effective way of improving access to essential services will be to improve links within key settlements and links between key settlements and employment sites and their hinterland. 2.2.7 It is the aim of Welsh Government to improve links between north, west and south Wales. Specifically, by improving the reliability of the road system especially between key settlements and employment areas. Bypassing existing settlements can also help address severance and cohesiveness within existing communities. Enhancing international connectivity 2.2.8 Wales has a series of ports, railways and roads that form part of the strategic Trans-European Networks (TEN-T). This was developed to reinforce economic and social cohesion across Europe. 2.2.9 The A40 is part of the wider TEN-T network and its performance is integral to connecting Wales, and West Wales in particular, to the wider European community. Increasing safety and security 2.2.10 Reducing the number of road casualties is a priority – with the ultimate aspiration being no casualties. This will be facilitated through the ‘Safe Routes in Communities scheme’ and is linked to integrating local transport.
National Transport Plan 2010 and Finance Plan 2015 2.2.11 Published in 2015 by the Welsh Government, the National Transport Finance Plan 7 followed the National Transport Plan 2010 to list the schemes the Welsh Government will deliver across the different areas of transport policy for which it is responsible. The 2015 Plan is not a policy document in itself but provides a framework of schemes pursuant to policy aims set out in the Wales Transport Strategy 2008.
7 http://gov.wales/topics/transport/planning-strategies/ntp/?lang=en
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2.2.12 A scheme to improve the A40 between Llanddewi Velfrey and Penblewin is detailed in the plan under reference R15. The scheme is described as; 1. 2 km of new highway to the north of the village of Llanddewi Velfrey; 2. 2.5km of improved highway west of Ffynnon Wood; and 3. Improved facilities for non-motorised travel via new cycle tracks and new bridleway, with a means of crossing the new highway either over or beneath. 2.2.13 In July 2013, Edwina Hart AM CStJ MBE, then Minister for Economy, Science and Transport, published a written statement outlining her priorities for Transport. The statement included the following; “Improving the A40 has been identified as a priority by the Haven Waterway Enterprise Zone Board and I intend to undertake further development of previously proposed improvements.” 2.2.14 On 12 November 2014, in providing an update on the closure of the Murco Refinery in Milford Haven, the Minister made an oral Statement in Plenary; “In terms of transport links, I have instructed my officials to accelerate to the fullest extent possible the programme for delivering improvements at Llanddewi Velfrey.” 2.2.15 In June 2015, in a written statement on the A40 Improvement Study the Minister noted “It is my intention to progress delivery of the A40 Llanddewi Velfrey to Penblewin scheme as soon as possible…” 2.2.16 The strategic rationale for the scheme is that it would help address road safety issues and improve accessibility to the Haven Waterway Enterprise Zone 8 and employment sites on a TEN-T route. The delivery of the scheme has been targeted by autumn 2019. 2.2.17 Whilst the strategic identification of the Scheme sets out a potential solution, and despite the Scheme being set out in national and local policy, this WelTAG reviews previous development work and reconsiders the problems, objectives and potential solutions to help inform decision making to progress a transport intervention that provides a long term and sustainable solution to the problems and best achieves the objectives for the A40 Llanddewi Velfrey to Penblewin.
8 https://businesswales.gov.wales/enterprisezones/zones/haven-waterway
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Trunk Road Forward Programme, 2002, 2004 and 2008 2.2.18 The aim of the Welsh Government’s 2002 Trunk Road Forward Programme 9 was to improve the economic and social conditions in Wales, through increasing efficiency and accessibility in all areas. 2.2.19 The Forward Programme indicated the Welsh Government’s intentions for road schemes that were expected to cost £1 million or more. 2.2.20 The A40 St Clears to Haverfordwest was identified in the Forward Programme within the ‘East – West (south) strategic corridor’. This identified 2 specific schemes: 4. A40 Llanddewi Velfrey to Penblewin 5. A40 Penblewin to Slebech Park 2.2.21 Both these schemes were classified as ‘Phase 2’ schemes, which ‘could be ready to proceed by April 2010. This position remained within the 2004 supplement to the 2002 Programme. 2.2.22 During a reprioritisation of the Programme in 2008, the 2 schemes were differentiated as follows: 6. Penblewin to Slebech Park scheme – identified as a ‘Phase 1’ high ranking scheme (programmed ready to start between 2008 and April 2011); and 7. Llanddewi Velfrey to Penblewin scheme – identified as a ‘Phase 3’ scheme meaning that further studies were needed to identify best solutions and the scheme is unlikely to be ready to start before April 2014. 2.2.23 The Penblewin to Slebech Park improvements were subsequently completed in March 2011. 2.2.24 Since the 2008 reprioritisation, the Llanddewi Velfrey to Penblewin Scheme has received continued ministerial support and further work has been completed.
9 http://gov.wales/topics/transport/roads/schemes/?lang=en
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Planning Policy Wales, 2016 2.2.25 Published in 2016, by Welsh Government, Edition 9 of Planning Policy Wales 10 establishes the national planning policy framework for guiding development throughout Wales. 2.2.26 Edition 9 incorporates updates to policy that reflect The Well-being of Future Generations (Wales) Act 2015, establishing a ‘sustainable development principle’ which means that a defined public body must act in a manner which seeks to ensure that the needs of the present are met without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs. The principles of the 2015 Act have been set out earlier and will not be repeated here but in essence Planning Policy Wales goes a way to reaffirm the importance of sustainable development in the context of the well-being of future generations. 2.2.27 In the context of road schemes, and specifically in the context of improvements to the TEN-T network, connecting Wales locally, regionally and internationally will secure social and economic mobility for future generations.
Environment Act, 2016 2.2.28 Enacted in 2016 by the National Assembly for Wales, the Environment (Wales) Act 2016 11 provides an iterative framework that ensures managing natural resources sustainably will be a core consideration in decision-making. Natural Resources Wales are the principal organisational body to help deliver the aims of the Act and are required to prepare a number of documents, which include; 8. State of Natural Resources Report; 9. National Natural Resources Policy; and 10. Area Statements. 2.2.29 These documents will help inform the design of road schemes so that they can be delivered in a way that manages natural resources sustainably. The Act also includes provisions to tackle climate change, through statutory emission reduction targets and carbon budgeting to support their delivery.
10 http://gov.wales/topics/planning/policy/ppw/?lang=en 11 http://www.senedd.assembly.wales/mgIssueHistoryHome.aspx?IId=12572
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Active Travel Act, 2013 2.2.30 Enacted in 2013 by the National Assembly for Wales, the Active Travel (Wales) Act 2013 12 requires legal requirement for local authorities in Wales to map and plan for suitable routes for active travel, and to build and improve their infrastructure for walking and cycling every year. It creates new duties for highways authorities to consider the needs of walkers and cyclists and make better provision for them. It also requires both the Welsh Government and local authorities to promote walking and cycling as a mode of transport so that local communities rely less on cars when making short journeys. 2.2.31 In the context of road schemes, there is significant opportunity to reconfigure existing infrastructure so that it better meets the needs of existing and new settlements and facilitates active travel. For example, bypass road schemes can address settlement severance and in doing so provide opportunities for active travel because pedestrians and cyclists would no longer need to compete with significant volumes of vehicular traffic for short journeys in the locality.
2.3 Regional Level
Joint Transport Plan for South West Wales, 2015 2.3.1 Published in 2015, the Joint Transport Plan for South West Wales 13 is the culmination of collaborative working between Carmarthenshire County Council, Neath Port Talbot County Borough Council, Pembrokeshire County Council and the City and County of Swansea. This collaborative working is closely linked with wider initiatives under the Swansea Bay City Region concept. The plan will provide the framework for improving connectivity to, from and within the region for the period 2015 – 2020. 2.3.2 The plan is targeted at addressing; 11. Economic growth: Supporting and Safeguarding jobs in the City Region; 12. Access to employment: Reducing economic inactivity by delivering safe access to major employment sites in the City Region; 13. Tackling poverty: Maximising the contribution that transport services can make to targeting improvements to tackling poverty and target improvements at the most disadvantaged communities; 14. Sustainable travel and safety: Encouraging safer, healthier and more sustainable travel; and
12 http://www.senedd.assembly.wales/mgIssueHistoryHome.aspx?IId=5750 13 https://www.swansea.gov.uk/media/7872/Joint-Transport-Plan-for-South-West-Wales-2015- 2020/pdf/Joint_Transport_Plan_for_South_West_Wales_-_ENG.pdf
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15. Access to services: Connecting communities and enabling access to key services. 2.3.3 The plan acknowledges the strategic road network, including the Trans-European Transport Network which links Europe to the Republic of Ireland, as vital gateways to the region for freight and passenger movements and as the most commonly used entry/exit routes to south-west Wales. 2.3.4 This is an important driver for the regional economy and supports growth at Haven Waterway Enterprise Zone in Pembrokeshire and other strategic growth zones such as that of Cross Hands in Carmarthenshire. 2.3.5 Key policies within the plan, in the context of this scheme, include; a) Policy KS1 - work collaboratively to develop improved public transport services, to link key settlements and their hinterlands with strategic corridors and employment sites. b) Policy KS2 - seek to improve the journey time reliability between key settlements and strategic and local employment sites. c) Policy KS3 - improve walking and cycling links within and between key settlements. d) Policy IC1 - work with the WG through the NTP programme to improve the TENs and the Trunk Road network to facilitate journey time reliability and support the economic regeneration of the region. e) Policy IC3 - work collaboratively to facilitate more reliable, effective and sustainable movement of people and freight to, from and through our ports. Also to improve access to our ports. f) Policy IC4 - work with the WG and other parties, to support the development of good access to regional and national airports in the UK, especially by public transport. g) Policy SS1 - seek to reduce the number of road casualties and collisions through improvements to highways and traffic management.
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2.3.6 The plan specifically addresses trunk road priorities setting out that; ‘They are the life blood of the region and essential to connect, sustain and grow local and regional economies. Trunk roads also provide national and international connectivity and support road based public transport connections to and from communities, settlements and employment, training, health care and leisure facilities.’
South West Wales Tourism Strategy 2004-2008 2.3.7 Published in 2004 by the South West Wales Tourism Partnership, the South West Wales Tourism Strategy 14 presents a plan to provide an inclusive and common focus along with a set of shared objectives which can help guide the future development and promotion of tourism throughout the region. 2.3.8 The overarching requirement of the Strategic Plan is the ongoing need to become ‘less competitive internally and more competitive externally’. A key component of this is connectivity. 2.3.9 The countryside and coastal location is an important characteristic of the region and the remoteness of some areas in the region is a draw for many visitors. It is recognised in the tourism strategy that road links to and from south-west Wales are generally excellent with high speed access as far west as St Clears. 2.3.10 However, west of this point slow progress on the A40(T) and the A477(T) can lead to visitor frustration and presents a limiting factor when seeking to attract the competitive short break market. One of the key objectives of the tourism strategy is to create a year-round quality experience and important in delivering this objective is to improve the ease of access to some of the region’s more remote and less accessible attractions.
14 http://www.thetourismcompany.com/casestudy.asp?serviceid=2&projectid=734
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2.4 Local Level
Pembrokeshire County Council Local Development Plan, 2013 2.4.1 Adopted in 2013, the Pembrokeshire County Council Local Development Plan 15 establishes the local policy framework to guide development in the area. 2.4.2 Llanddewi Velfrey to Penblewin improvement scheme is identified under Policy GN.39 ‘Transport Routes and Improvements’. The proposals map has identified sufficient land in order to safeguard a possible route for the scheme to avoid potential land use conflicts over the plan period. 2.4.3 The plan identifies three key trunk roads whose routes run into Pembrokeshire, namely the A40 (T), A477 (T) and A487 (T). They link to the 2 ferry terminals, at Pembroke Dock (A477 (T)) and Fishguard Harbour (A40 (T) and A487 (T)). The A4076 (T) is a further important Trunk Road, linking Haverfordwest with Milford Haven. Pembrokeshire County Council has identified a need for significant investment in transport infrastructure, for example dualling the A40 and improving the A477. 2.4.4 The plan identifies a number of strategic economic priorities citing the tourist industry as the County’s largest industry and employer alongside industrial and energy development at the port of Milford Haven. Improving access to both tourist destinations and employment growth hubs will be important for the future prosperity of the area. 2.4.5 In terms of future growth, within Llanddewi Velfrey, the plan identifies a housing allocation to the north of the village hall for a minimum of 12 units and an area of open space which is afforded protection through the plan. The plan identifies a number of housing and employment allocations within and around Narberth, Clarbeston Road and Haverfordwest. The main strategic areas for growth are located within the settlements of Haverfordwest, Milford Haven, Pembroke and Fishguard. When these sites come forward and development is realised they will contribute to flows along the A40 corridor.
15 http://www.pembrokeshire.gov.uk/content.asp?nav=1626,109,2045
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2.5 Pembrokeshire Coast National Park Local Development Plan, 2010 2.5.1 The Plan 16 was adopted in 2010 and provides the framework for town and country planning decisions to be made up until 2021 on how land is used and developed in the National Park. In general, although not promoting large scale growth in the same way as the Pembrokeshire County LDP, the Plan is supportive of wider growth outside of the National Park and in turn recognises the importance of the A40 as a key east-west link.
2.6 Pembrokeshire Destination Management Plan 2013-2018 2.6.1 Published in 2013 by the Destination Pembrokeshire Partnership, the Pembrokeshire Destination Management Plan 17 is designed to act as a development guide for all Pembrokeshire based organisations, businesses and employees in tourism related roles. The plan aims to improve the tourist offer in the region in order to stave off competition from elsewhere in the UK. 2.6.2 A key objective of the plan is to develop and sustain the tourism infrastructure, environment and cultural resources. A component of this is the improvement of countryside access and access to remote locations as well as transport options. The plan specifically identifies a geography and connectivity related barrier; ‘Pembrokeshire’s relative isolation and distance from visitor markets is a significant limiting factor, especially for encouraging short breaks outside peak summer months. Improved road and rail networks linking other destinations, especially those in south west England, will have a displacement effect on visits to Pembrokeshire.’
16 http://www.pembrokeshirecoast.org.uk/default.asp?PID=178 17 https://businesswales.gov.wales/dmwales/sites/dmwales/files/documents/pembrokeshire-dm-plan.pdf
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3 Scheme Context
3.1 Overview 3.1.1 This section of the IAR presents the context within which the Scheme should be considered and within which possible solutions should be appraised. This explores the current situation in relation to the existing A40 and also considers the broader social, environmental and economic context for any potential intervention.
3.2 Transport Network
A40 West of St Clears 3.2.1 The A40 trunk road, together with the M4 Motorway, the A48 trunk road and the A477 trunk road forms part of the Trans-European Transport Network (TEN-T) in south-west Wales and is a strategically important link between the national Motorway network and the port of Fishguard. However, the Trunk Road Forward Programme 2002 identified the A40 West of St Clears as forming the lowest standard section of the TEN-T in the UK. 3.2.2 The A40 west of St Clears provides a key road link between south- east Wales and Haverfordwest, which is a gateway town to the ports of Milford Haven, Fishguard and Pembroke Dock, as well as the tourist economy of central and north Pembrokeshire. 3.2.3 The St Clears to Haverfordwest section of the A40 (see Figure 2) has developed to connect small villages and as such many sections of the A40 pass through these communities, leading to issues around severance, air and noise concerns and safety problems. 3.2.4 The A40 accommodates a mix of traffic types, with seasonal variations. In the winter months, the road carries local residents (typically car-based traffic); commercial vehicles, particularly around ferry arrival and departure times; and agricultural vehicles. In the summer months, the mix is supplemented by a higher volume of tourist traffic (increasing in some areas by over 40%) including cars and caravans.
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A40 Llanddewi Velfrey to Penblewin 3.2.5 The Llanddewi Velfrey to Penblewin section of the A40 forms a strategic connection between Carmarthen and Haverfordwest. It forms part of the wider A40 strategic trunk road network as shown in Figure 2, linking Fishguard onto Carmarthen, then joining the M4 to London. 3.2.6 The Scheme considers improvements to the existing section of the A40 from Gwyndy Farm in the east to the Penblewin Roundabout in the west as shown in Error! Reference source not found. . 3.2.7 Travelling west from Gwyndy Farm, a footway is provided on the edge of the westbound carriageway through to the village of Llanddewi Velfrey, although for most of its length it is less than one metre in width. 3.2.8 Approaching the village, there are a number of residential and field accesses off the A40. There are a number of frontage properties, accesses and side roads including a filling station with mini market, cafe and a public house. 3.2.9 The section through the village is illuminated, and a speed limit of 40mph applies from a point 140m west of Bethel Chapel to a point 100m west of the access to Pen-Troydin Fach. The footway continues through the village on the westbound side of the A40 only. 3.2.10 West of the village, the A40 re-enters the rural area and the 40mph speed restriction ends, returning to the national speed limit. This section of the A40 has a number of side road / layby accesses and farm accesses, with limited frontage development. 3.2.11 On approach to the A478 roundabout at Penblewin, there is an access to an existing rest area including parking for heavy goods vehicles (HGVs), and a few properties front onto the A40 immediately prior to the roundabout. 3.2.12 There is an existing network of public rights of way, including 25 footpaths, five bridleways and one restricted byway according to Pembrokeshire’s consolidated Definitive Map. Sustrans do not identify any formal cycle routes within the area.
Origin / Destination Data 3.2.13 A Road Side Interview (RSI) was undertaken in order to identify broad origin and destination information for users of the A40. 3.2.14 Figure 4 shows broad points with green points showing the origin or trips recorded and red points showing the destination of trips recorded. The data shows a diverse range of trips occurring within Pembrokeshire and beyond using the A40.
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Figure 2 A40 in its wider context
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Figure 3 A40 Llanddewi Velfrey to Penblewin
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Figure 4 Origin / Destination of journeys using the A40
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Journey Times / Reliability Road 3.2.15 Table 2 summarises car-based journey times from Llanddewi Velfrey to key destinations, all of which would utilise the A40 (in part or in full). This shows generally good car based accessibility to the main towns of Haverfordwest and Carmarthen with journeys taking on average less than 30 minutes. Table 2 Car-based Journey Time from Llanddewi Velfrey to key Destinations
Llanddewi Velfrey Haverfordwest Milford Haven Fishguard Carmarthen Cardiff Bristol London
Llanddewi N/A 00:21 00:34 00:36 00:23 01:35 02:12 04:27 Velfrey Haverfordwest 00:21 N/A 00:19 00:25 00:45 01:57 02:37 04:54 Milford 00:34 00:19 N/A 00:39 00:55 02:08 02:52 05:06 Haven Fishguard 00:36 00:25 00:39 N/A 00:59 02:13 02:57 05:10 Pembroke 00:30 00:22 00:18 00:44 00:44 01:56 02:38 04:56 Dock Source: Google Maps Journey Planner 3.2.16 Journey time reliability is identified as one of the key problems associated with the A40 between St Clears and Haverfordwest. The long stretches of single carriageway and alignment of the road limits safe overtaking opportunities and causes platooning behind slow moving vehicles (e.g. HGVs, agricultural vehicles and caravans). 3.2.17 Platooning is the traffic condition, similar to a convoy, where a queue of traffic builds up behind the front vehicle. If the front vehicle is moving at a slower speed than the rest it creates queues of traffic if there is no opportunity for overtaking. In the context of the A40 platooning is particularly experienced: a) When there has been a ferry arrival at either Milford Haven or Fishguard and there are a number of HGVs heading east along the trunk road at the same time; b) When agricultural vehicles are travelling along the A40; and/or c) When slow moving vehicles such as caravans are travelling along the trunk roads – particularly prevalent during the summer months.
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3.2.18 Completed improvements between Penblewin and Slebech Park have helped to relieve this problem to an extent, however there continues to be long stretches to the east of Penblewin where overtaking opportunities are limited, including around Llanddewi Velfrey. For instance, there is no opportunity for vehicles travelling east to overtake for at least 19km from Robeston Wathen towards St Clears roundabout. Similarly, for vehicles travelling west there is no opportunity for vehicles to overtake for at least 9.5km from Canaston Bridge to Haverfordwest roundabout. Public Transport 3.2.19 The A40 provides an important linkage for the communities located along it to the main transport hubs within Pembrokeshire offering access to wider transport modes and more strategic / regional public transport connectivity. 3.2.20 Local public transport services from Llanddewi Velfrey to key local settlements of Haverfordwest and Carmarthen are provided by Taf Valley Coaches 322 Service. The service currently provides four daily trips in each direction operating between 07:56 and 18:12. 3.2.21 Wider connections to other destinations from Haverfordwest are provided by First Cymru and Richard Brothers as shown in Table 3. Table 3 Bus Services from Llanddewi Velfrey
Destination Service Duration Haverfordwest (via Narberth) 322 43 min Carmarthen 322 33 min Milford Haven 322 / 302 1 h 36 min Pembroke 322 / 349 1 h 33 min Fishguard 322 / T5 1 h 18 min Source: Traveline Cymru / Google Maps Journey Planner 3.2.22 Table 3 shows that in order to reach other destinations within Pembrokeshire from Llanddewi Velfrey users must change at Haverfordwest and join another service. In general, service frequency on the majority of routes is low and the journey times are not competitive with car based transport on the longer routes. This corresponds with the high level of car ownership in the County and reliance on the car for journeys. 3.2.23 Regional rail and coach services can be accessed from the major towns with services available from Haverfordwest and Carmarthen.
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3.2.24 Journey times for coach travel from Haverfordwest and Carmarthen are shown in Table 4. These are National Express services and therefore fairly infrequent throughout the day. Other coach operators do offer similar services although journey times are not competitive with car journeys. Table 4 Journey time by Coach from Haverfordwest and Carmarthen
Swansea Cardiff London Haverfordwest ~ 2 h 25 min ~ 3 h 50 min ~ 7 h 45 min Car equivalent ~ 1 h 20 min ~ 2 h ~ 4 h 30 min Carmarthen ~ 50 min ~ 2 h 5 min ~ 6 h 10 min Car equivalent ~ 41 min ~ 1 h 16 min ~ 3 h 45 min Source: National Express 3.2.25 Services from Haverfordwest and Carmarthen are not competitive when compared to equivalent car journeys with the exception of the service between Carmarthen and Swansea. However, consideration must be given to the need for users to get to Carmarthen in order to connect with the National Express Service. 3.2.26 Rail services are accessible from Haverfordwest and operated by Arriva Trains Wales. Journey times to key destinations are shown in Table 5. Table 5 Journey times by rail from Haverfordwest
Station Services per Day Journey Time Road Equivalent Swansea 10 ~ 1 h 30 min ~ 1 h 20 min Cardiff 9 ~ 2 h 30 min ~ 2 h London 9 ~ 4 h 50 min ~ 4 h 30 min Fishguard Harbour 6 ~ 1 h 30 min ~ 30 min Source: Traveline Cymru / Arriva Trains Wales 3.2.27 Although some journey times are fairly competitive when compared to car journey equivalents, consideration must be given to any journeys needed prior to the rail section in order to join the services on offer. From Llanddewi Velfrey for example, journeys by rail would take an additional 43 minutes making the overall journey un- competitive when compared to car alternatives.
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Port (Passenger Ferry and Freight) 3.2.28 The A40 provides an important connection to 2 ferry routes between Pembrokeshire and Ireland: 1. Fishguard to Rosslare – operated by Stena Line; and 2. Pembroke Dock to Rosslare – operated by Irish Ferries. 3.2.29 The routes both offer twice daily sailings in either direction as summarised in Table 6.
Table 6 Ferry Routes from Pembrokeshire to Ireland
Fishguard to Rosslare Pembroke Dock to Rosslare Pembrokeshire to Rosslare 02:30 – 06:30 02:45 – 06:46 14:30 – 18:00 14:45 – 18:46 Rosslare to Pembrokeshire 09:00 – 12:30 08:45 – 12:46 21:15 – 00:30 20:45 – 00:46 Crossing time ~3 h 30 Min ~ 4 h
3.2.30 The two crossings are very similar in terms of timings and journey time with a timetable built around hauliers accessing key logistic hubs in both countries in the early hours. As a result, ferry traffic is generally generated at off peak times. 3.2.31 Statistics on freight passing through UK ports are published by the DfT 18 . Volumes for Pembrokeshire ports are shown in Table 7. Table 7 Total Freight Tonnage at Pembrokeshire Ports
Port 2015 Freight (thousand tonnes) Fishguard 364 Milford Haven / Pembroke Dock 860
3.2.32 In terms of trends over time, Figure 5 identifies tonnage passing through both ports between 2005 and 2015. This shows a general decline at both ports since 2005, despite peaks in the throughput in 2006/2007. 3.2.33 Although not at 2005 levels, both ports have seen slight increases in throughput since 2012. This could suggest effects of the recession and a period of growth as the market has improved since that point.
18 Source: DfT Port Freight Statistics (Table PORT0205): UK major ports, main freight units by port, annually: 1992 - 2015
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Figure 5 Trends in freight tonnage
3.2.34 Despite an overall decline in freight throughput at both Milford Haven and Fishguard, it remains a priority of Pembrokeshire County Council and the Welsh Government to help ensure that the infrastructure is in place in order to make the ports and associated Haven Waterway Enterprise Zone (focused on industry and energy development) as attractive as possible to future investment.
Traffic 3.2.35 This section of the report summarises information within the ‘Initial Traffic and Accident Data Report’ 19 (April 2017), which details traffic trends in the past and as existing. Historic growth 3.2.36 The closest location to the proposed Llanddewi Velfrey to Penblewin improvements at which continuous traffic count data is available over a prolonged period is along the Whitland Bypass section of the A40. The Whitland Bypass section is situated slightly east of the Llandewi Velfrey to Penblewin section but is considered to be representative. 3.2.37 Figure 6 illustrates the annual average daily traffic (AADT) flows and associated growth rates flows on the A40 (Whitland Bypass) between 1999 and 2016. This shows that traffic volumes have increased in the area by 13% over the 17-year period. Between 2009 and 2012 the data does show some negative annual growth which is likely to be as a result of the economic recession around that time.
19 Ref. A40LVP-ARP-VTR-SWI-RP-TR-0002
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3.2.38 Following this period, traffic growth increased to approximately 4% per annum in the 2-year period between 2012 and 2014, near to pre- recession levels, and have since plateaued.
Figure 6 AADT flows 1999 – 2016
3.2.39 The data shows an AADT flow in 2016 of 9,458 vehicles for Whitland Bypass. 3.2.40 A comparison of monthly flows based on the Whitland Bypass count location in 2016 is shown in Figure 7.
Figure 7 Monthly variation in traffic flows on A40 Whitland Bypass
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3.2.41 This demonstrates significant seasonal variation with peak flows recorded in August and lowest flows in January. Traffic volumes in August were observed to be 26% higher than the annual average, whereas volumes in January were 20% lower. Seasonality on the A40 is thus recognised as a trend in the area and adds to the overall your volumes of traffic passing through settlements such as Llanddewi Velfrey during summer months. 3.2.42 The level of seasonality in traffic flows reflects the prominence of Pembrokeshire as a tourism destination as well as the attractiveness of the National Park which attracts approximately 4.2 million visitors per annum or 13 million visitor days 20 . 3.2.43 As outlined above, the location at which this was recorded is slightly east of the section of the A40 which will be affected by the proposed Llandewi Velfrey to Penblewin improvements. For that reason, the AADT for the A40 west of Llanddewi Velfrey has also been derived using the latest available traffic data at that location together with conversion factors discussed in the Initial Traffic and Accident Data Report. 3.2.44 Based on the seasonality adjustments calculated it is possible to convert the ATC data collected on the A40 west of Llanddewi Velfrey over a six-week period in September and October 2016 to represent annual average daily traffic (AADT) flows. Following this method, the AADT for the A40 west of Llanddewi Velfrey in 2016 was calculated to be 11,265. 3.2.45 Utilising automatic traffic count (ATC) data, collected over a six- week period in September and October 2016 on the A40 west of Llanddewi Velfrey, a comparison of daily traffic volumes has been undertaken and is summarised in Figure 8.
Figure 8 Daily variation of traffic flows west of Llanddewi Velfrey
20 http://www.nationalparks.gov.uk/students/whatisanationalpark/factsandfigures
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3.2.46 The ATC data shows little fluctuation of daily traffic volumes between Monday and Thursday and a spike in daily volumes on Fridays, when traffic volumes are around 15% higher than Monday to Friday averages. This is likely to be linked to weekend breaks and also Pembrokeshire residents who work elsewhere returning home. Weekend flows are lower than weekday flows with traffic volumes on Saturdays and Sundays are 7% and 19% lower than the Monday to Sunday average traffic volume respectively. 3.2.47 The ATC data has also been analysed to determine a typical hourly profile of traffic flows. The data in Figure 9 shows a typical weekday (Monday to Thursday) pattern with variations from this on Fridays, Saturdays and Sundays.
Figure 9 Hourly variation of traffic flows west of Llanddewi Velfrey 3.2.48 The data shows a typical morning and evening peak between Monday and Thursday. On Fridays traffic volumes are higher from 9am onwards and on Saturday and Sunday the morning peak is observed to be occurring later in the day. Highest volumes of traffic across the week are encountered during the Friday evening peak, between 5pm and 6pm.
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3.2.49 illustrates that westbound traffic is generally higher in the morning peak than in the evening, whilst the reverse is the case in an eastbound direction. Upon closer examination, the data shows a spike in eastbound traffic between 1am and 2am and between 1pm and 2pm. This is likely to be associated with a platoon of traffic arriving off ferry services into Fishguard and/or Pembroke Dock.
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Figure 10 Tidality of Mon-Thur traffic flows west of Llanddewi Velfrey 3.2.50 Results of a manual classified count (MCC) undertaken to analyse the proportion of vehicle types by time of day is shown in Figure 11.
Figure 11 Proportion of vehicle types on A40 west of Llanddewi Velfrey 3.2.51 The proportion of light goods vehicles (LGV) and heavy goods vehicles (HGV) is highest in the morning and gradually reduces throughout the day. The average proportions are 74% cars, 18% LGV and 8% HGV. The remaining 1% represents a mix motorcycles, coaches and public service buses.
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Traffic Forecasts 3.2.52 Transport modelling is underway which will provide AADT data for forecast years in the ‘do-minimum’ and ‘do-something’ scenarios. This will be presented for WelTAG Stage 3 appraisals and will help identify any future capacity issues on the highway network. For the purposes of this Stage 2 appraisal, it is assumed that traffic growth would continue to plateau as a central scenario, which would be consistent with past trends as identified in Figure 6. However, it would reasonable to consider a high growth scenario in light of the national and local economic development policies and initiatives, including the Haven Waterway Enterprise Zone, the Swansea Bay City Region and associated movements of goods and people along the east-west corridor and from west Wales Ports.
Road Safety 3.2.53 As outlined above, this section of the A40 is considered to be substandard and has a perceived problem with regard to overtaking opportunities and associated risks of accidents. 3.2.54 The 2015 Design Options Report updated previous development work. It explains that historically there have been safety concerns along the A40 St Clears to Milford Haven, confirming that between 2009 and 2013 there were 99 collisions, of which 3 were fatal and 10 were serious. On average there were 20 collisions per year, with years 2009, 2012 and 2013 exceeding the annual average each year 21 . 3.2.55 Section 3 of the Initial Traffic and Accident Data Report presents the updated details of historic traffic and accident data relevant to the Llanddewi Velfrey to Penblewin study area, with all personal injury accidents reported to the police for the five-year period between 2011 and 2015, the most recent timeframe for which complete datasets are available. 3.2.56 For the purposes of the traffic model, the data covers the A40 carriageway from a point 500m west of Redstone Cross to a point 500m east of the Whitland Bypass western roundabout, also including 500m of all side road approaches to junctions with the A40. However, it is appreciated that the Scheme comprises a more limited area to the west of that as described. As such, this section of the IAR provides data as reported within the Initial Traffic and Accident Data Report, as well as extracts relevant to this WelTAG exercise.
21 A40 St Clears to Haverfordwest Design Options Report Volume 1, Welsh Government 2015
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3.2.57 A total of 20 accidents were recorded within the traffic study area for the five-year period between 2011 and 2015. These comprise three fatal, four serious and 13 slight accidents. 10 of these accidents are along the A40 Llanddewi Velfrey to Penblewin, of which one was fatal and two more were serious. 3.2.58 Many of the total incidents (43%) occurred due to vehicles veering onto the opposite side of the carriageway. It is also important to note that two of the three fatal incidents in the study area are also categorised within this accident type. This indicates that issues may exist with the existing road layout, resulting in drivers veering into opposing traffic. 3.2.59 This type of movement and associated accident is often associated with a that lack of safe overtaking opportunities, driver frustration and risk taking. 3.2.60 The other fatal accident and majority of other types of accidents occurred due to drivers being unable to stop in time, particularly when a vehicle in front was waiting to turn in order to exit the carriageway. 3.2.61 This suggests that there may be an existing issue relating to skid resistance along the carriageway resulting in rear-end collisions and also a potential issue with existing visibility splays at priority junctions along the A40 and for vehicles approaching behind those waiting to turn from the main A40 carriageway. 3.2.62 There is no clear pattern between the occurrences of accidents over time or when considering the weather conditions encountered at the time of the accident. However, the peak accident period is between 17:00 and 18:00, which corresponds with the evening peak period of travel, for which traffic is generally higher due to typical commuting patterns.
Speed Profile 3.2.63 Initial average speed analysis has been undertaken based on Traffic Master data for 2 sections of the A40 either side of Llanddewi Velfrey, to provide a high level indication of potential journey time reliability issues. The data for average traffic speeds in October 2015 for normal school days (Monday to Thursday) do not show significant variations in average speeds during the day (07:00 – 19:00) although speeds do vary significantly when compared to the off-peak hours. Whilst the limitations of this data is acknowledged, it does show some potential journey time unreliability for drivers. 3.2.64 Further interrogation and more reliable data about journey times will be available to inform WelTAG Stage 3 appraisal.
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3.3 Social and Cultural
Study Area 3.3.1 A study area has been defined around the proposed Llanddewi Velfrey to Penblewin improvements for the purposes of data collection and review. The study area extends some 3km from the centre point of the route to capture the relevant communities, facilities and services within the wards of Narberth, Narberth Rural and Lampeter Velfrey, as shown in Figure 12.
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Figure 12 Study Area
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Settlement Patterns / density 3.3.2 Pembrokeshire is one of the most rural counties in Wales with an estimated population of 123,500 22 and a population density of 76 people per square kilometre compared to Welsh average of 149. 2 of the county’s largest towns are connected to the wider region by the A40, including Haverfordwest with a population of approximately 12,000 and Milford Haven with a population of approximately 13,900 23 . 3.3.3 The study area comprises the wards of Narberth, Narberth Rural, and Lampeter Velfrey, and has a total population of 5,030. The main settlement in the area is the town of Narberth, with a population of 1,923. Population density across the study area is 0.7 persons per hectare, compared with 0.8 for Pembrokeshire and 1.5 across Wales. Outside of Narberth, it is lower again, at 0.4 persons per hectare. 3.3.4 Figure 13 utilises data from Ordnance Survey Address Points Plus in order to spatially map concentrations of properties and demonstrate the low density within the study area.
22 ONS Population estimates, 2015 (accessed March 2017) 23 2011 Census of Population, Table KS101EW – Usual resident population (accessed March 2017)
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Figure 13 Settlement pattern / addresses
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Community facilities / amenities. 3.3.5 A review has been undertaken of the facilities and amenities within an approximate 3km radius of the existing A40. 3.3.6 Seven notable businesses have been identified within the area, these include: a. Three holiday accommodation businesses (Bounty Manor, Preseli view self-catering accommodation and Pembrokeshire Farm bed and breakfast). b. Londis garage and Preseli car sales, located near to Llanddewi Velfrey village centre. c. Willow Tree School for dogs and Cross Inn pet supplies and cattery. d. One village hall in Llanddewi Velfrey makes up the community facilities and no further tourist or recreational facilities are identified within the area. e. 21 listed buildings can be identified within the 3km radius in addition to a number of places of worship. 3.3.7 All facilities / amenities are shown spatially in Figure 14 , which shows the limited number of facilities within proximity to the A40, with the exception of the PRoW network. The prominence of Narberth as a key service centre for the area can be seen through the prominence of facilities.
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Figure 14 Community Facilities / Amenities
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Population profile 3.3.8 Figure 15 illustrates the age profile of the study area, in comparison with Pembrokeshire and Wales. This shows that the study area has a slightly higher than average proportion of residents falling into older age groups, and a slightly lower than average proportion of residents who are children under the age of 16. 22.9% of residents of the study area are aged 65 and over, with 3.9% aged 85 and over. Across Wales, 18.4% of residents are aged 65 and over, and 2.4% aged 85 and over.
Figure 15 Age profile (Source: ONS, Census 2011) 3.3.9 Data on household composition shows that the study area also has higher than average proportions of households where all members are aged 65 and over. 16.7% of all households are single-person households aged 65 and over, and 10.3% are single-family households where all are aged 65 and over. The corresponding figures for Wales are 13.7% and 8.9% respectively. Table 8: Household composition (Source: ONS, Census 2011)
Study area Pembroke- Wales shire One person Total 30.8% 30.9% 30.8% household Aged 65 and over 16.7% 15.0% 13.7% Other 14.1% 15.8% 17.1% One family Total 63.4% 63.7% 62.8% only All aged 65 and over 10.3% 10.9% 8.9% Married, same-sex civil partnership 42.8% 41.8% 42.5% or cohabiting couple Lone parent 10.4% 11.0% 11.4% Other 5.8% 5.4% 6.5%
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Economic Activity 3.3.10 The older than average age profile of the study area is reflected in data for economic activity, which shows that 18.3% of residents are retired. This is slightly below the figure for Pembrokeshire (18.7%), but above the national average (16.1%). The study area has a higher than average rate of economic activity, with low levels of unemployment and a lower than average proportion of residents who are long-term sick or disabled. The proportion of working-age residents who are employed full-time is, however, lower than the national average, and it is notable that there is a high rate of self-employment: 16.7% of working-age residents of the study area are self-employed, compared with 13.5% in Pembrokeshire and 13.9% nationally. Table 9: Economic activity (Source: ONS, Census 2011)
Study area Pembroke- Wales shire Economically Total 68.0% 66.0% 65.8% active Employed full-time 31.7% 30.9% 35.6% Employed part-time 14.9% 15.3% 13.9% Self-employed 16.7% 13.5% 8.6% Unemployed 2.6% 4.0% 4.3%
Full-time student 2.0% 2.2% 3.3% Economically Total 32.0% 34.0% 34.2% inactive Retired 18.3% 18.7% 16.1% Student 4.4% 3.8% 6.0% Looking after home or family 3.0% 4.3% 3.8% Long-term sick or disabled 4.5% 5.3% 6.3% Other 1.8% 1.9% 2.0%
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Travel to work 3.3.11 Table 10 presents data on the method of travel to work used by residents of the study area, in comparison with Pembrokeshire and Wales. The proportion of residents who travel to work using a car, taxi or motorbike is slightly below the average for Wales, and in line with the figure for Pembrokeshire. However, the proportion of residents using buses or trains is also below average, reflecting the rural nature of the area and the relative lack of public transport provision. It is notable that the proportion of residents who work mainly at or from home is more than twice the national average, and higher than the figure for Pembrokeshire. Table 10: Method of travel to work (Source: ONS, Census 2011)
Study Pembroke- Wales area shire Car, taxi or motorbike 73.2% 73.2% 75.2% Train, metro, light rail or tram 0.8% 0.5% 2.1% Bus, minibus or coach 1.4% 3.0% 4.6% Bicycle 0.6% 0.9% 1.4% On foot 11.2% 11.9% 10.6% Other method 0.7% 0.9% 0.6% Work mainly at or from home 12.1% 9.7% 5.4%
3.3.12 Figure 16 shows the distance travelled to work by residents of the study area, in comparison with Pembrokeshire and Wales. This suggests that, in general, residents of the study area are more likely to travel longer distances to work, with 40.3% travelling more than 10km compared with 29.8% in Pembrokeshire and 31.3% nationally. This trend reflects the traffic patterns of higher traffic levels on a Friday PM peak, with workers returning home from working outside of the region. 3.3.13 The proportion who state that they work mainly at or from home is again higher than average, at 20.7% compared with 17.3% for Pembrokeshire and 10.4% nationally. 24 It is likely that this reflects both the rural nature of the area and the relatively high proportion of self-employment among residents of working age.
24 These figures for home-working are considerably higher than those presented in Table 10. This is because of differences in the way method of travel to work and distance travelled to work are calculated.
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Figure 16 Distance travelled to work (Source: ONS, Census 2011)
Access to transport 3.3.14 Car ownership in the study area and across Pembrokeshire is relatively high. Figure 17 shows the proportion of households that do not have access to a car or van. In the study area, only 13.3% of households fall into this category, compared with 17.9% across Pembrokeshire and 22.9% nationally.
Figure 17 Proportion of households without access to a car or van
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3.3.15 This is in line with national trends, which show that car ownership is generally higher in rural areas than in urban areas. This also reflects the population profile of older people living in the study area. 3.3.16 Data from the National Survey for Wales 2013-14 shows that 86% of people in rural areas have access to a car, compared with 77% in urban areas 25 . Car ownership in rural areas also tends to be less sensitive to motoring costs than in urban areas 26 , reflecting the lack of alternative modes of transport and the importance of car ownership in accessing services and employment. 3.3.17 Analysis by Sustrans Cymru suggests that between 40 and 50% of people in Pembrokeshire could find the costs of running a car challenging 27 . 3.3.18 The Welsh Index of Multiple Deprivation shows that both Narberth Rural and Lampeter Velfrey experience relatively high rates of deprivation in terms of access to services, underlining the importance of access to cars and other forms of private transport. Lampeter Velfrey in particular is the 87 th most deprived Lower Super Output Area (LSOA) of 1,909 in Wales.
3.4 Environmental 3.4.1 This section of the report presents the baseline situation in relation to key environmental considerations. Given the nature of this Stage 2 IAR, the level of detail is reflective of the fact that work to date has mainly involved desk based reviews with a limited amount of survey information available in relation to ecology. Environmental surveys are underway and further information will be available for WelTAG Stage 3.
Air Quality 3.4.2 Air quality monitoring is undertaken in both Pembrokeshire and Carmarthenshire using diffusion tubes. No monitoring has been undertaken in the vicinity of the route with the nearest monitoring location being an automatic monitor in Princes Gate, 4km south of this section of A40. Background pollutant mapping from Defra has been used to determine the baseline air quality conditions.
25 National Survey for Wales, 2013-2147014 – Transport. 26 Dargay, J. (2002) Determinants of car ownership in rural and urban areas: a pseudo-panel analysis. Transportation Research E, 38 (5), pp.351-366. Accessed online: http://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/2486/1/ITS2106- determinants_of10_car_ownership_uploadable.pdf 27 Sustrans Cymru (2012) Access Denied: Transport poverty in Wales.
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3.4.3 Background pollutant concentrations of NO 2, PM 10 , and PM 2.5 are well below the relevant air quality objectives (40µg/m 3). This reflects the rural nature of the area. The predicted background pollutant concentrations for the baseline year (2016), opening year (2020), and future year (2035) for NO 2, PM 10 , and PM 2.5 are shown in Tables 11, 12 and 13 respectively. The background pollutant mapping is produced for each year up until 2030, therefore, the future year (2035) concentrations are based on 2030 concentrations.
Table 11: NO 2 Background Pollutant Concentrations
3 Grid reference Background NO 2 (µg/m ) 2016 2020 2035 211500_216500 6.2 5.2 4.2 212500_216500 6.3 5.2 4.2 213500_216500 6.1 5.1 4.1 214500_216500 6.1 5.1 4.1 215500_216500 6.1 5.0 4.1 216500_216500 6.0 5.0 4.0 211500_217500 5.8 4.9 4.0 212500_217500 5.7 4.8 4.0 213500_217500 5.6 4.7 3.9 214500_217500 5.6 4.7 3.9 215500_217500 5.6 4.7 3.8 216500_217500 5.6 4.7 3.8
Table 12: Background PM 10 Concentrations
3 Grid reference Background PM 10 (µg/m ) 2016 2020 2030 211500_216500 12.1 11.7 11.4 212500_216500 12.2 11.8 11.4 213500_216500 12.3 11.9 11.6 214500_216500 12.5 12.1 11.8 215500_216500 12.4 12.0 11.7 216500_216500 12.4 12.0 11.6 211500_217500 11.9 11.5 11.2 212500_217500 12.2 11.8 11.5 213500_217500 11.8 11.4 11.1 214500_217500 12.6 12.2 11.9 215500_217500 11.7 11.3 11.0 216500_217500 11.9 11.5 11.1
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Table 13: Background PM 2.5 Concentrations
3 Grid reference Background PM 2.5 (µg/m ) 2016 2020 2030 211500_216500 7.9 7.6 7.3 212500_216500 7.9 7.6 7.3 213500_216500 8.0 7.7 7.4 214500_216500 8.2 7.9 7.6 215500_216500 8.1 7.8 7.5 216500_216500 8.0 7.7 7.4 211500_217500 7.8 7.5 7.2 212500_217500 8.0 7.6 7.3 213500_217500 7.7 7.4 7.1 214500_217500 8.1 7.8 7.5 215500_217500 7.7 7.4 7.1 216500_217500 7.8 7.4 7.1
3.4.4 However, it should be noted that the A40 route has developed over time to connect small villages and as such the road passes through many population centres, including Llanddewi Velfrey. This leads to exposure of local residents to vehicle emissions with associated local air quality problems. 3.4.5 Air quality monitoring has commenced at seven locations in the vicinity of the Scheme, including collocating monitoring with the automatic monitor at Princes Gate. However, no data is available as yet from this survey.
Noise 3.4.6 The area surrounding the existing A40 is predominantly rural and sparsely populated, however there are a few isolated properties in close proximity (<10m) to the route. 3.4.7 Traffic flows along the route (taking into account seasonal adjustments) are in the order of 11,300 vehicles per day with approximately 8% of these being HGVs. Without undertaken detailed noise monitoring, it is envisaged that vehicle flows of this magnitude and the number of HGV flows, combined with platooning of HGVs from ferry’s that properties within 10m of the route are likely to be experiencing existing noise levels in excess of 70dB L L A10,18hr where speeds are de-restricted.
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3.4.8 Where the road passes through the village of Llanddewi Velfrey there is a speed limit of 40mph, which is likely to lead to noise levels of just under 70dB L A10,18hr . These represent undesirably high noise levels for outdoor spaces and are likely to lead to high levels of indoor noise assuming standard glazing arrangements. 3.4.9 Where sections of the road currently have a Hot Rolled Asphalt (HRA) road surface, routine resurfacing with a Thin Surface Course (TSC) could give just noticeable benefits of around 3dB in the future however noise levels would remain undesirably high.
Landscape and Townscape 3.4.10 The proposed development is located in a rural, lowland agricultural setting with mainly dispersed population in agricultural holdings and small villages. The landscape is rolling in character with the Preseli Hills lying some 12km to the north and Carmarthen Bay approximately 10km to the south. Where hedges and trees allow, wide views are possible from more elevated locations with the Preseli Hills and the intervening ridges visible to the north. Views southwards tend to be more restricted to the nearby higher land. 3.4.11 The existing A40 road follows a route on more elevated ground by following a series of ridges. At Llanddewi Velfrey the route follows the crest of a ridge with relatively steep slopes falling to the north. Here the north slopes of the ridge are broken by a number of narrow steep-sided and wooded valleys containing small watercourses fed by a line of springs. These watercourses flow west into the Afon Cleddau or south into the Afon Taf. Further west, approaching Penblewin roundabout, the A40 passes through an area of more gentle topography slightly above the floor of the valley, which lies just to the south. 3.4.12 The land is used as arable or pasture land, with the arable uses tending to occupy the flatter land. The pasture is scattered throughout the area, but forms larger blocks of smaller fields on the steeper slopes. The pattern of field enclosure is still dominated by medieval land divisions and indeed, some groups of fields display the characteristic long narrow outlines of enclosed former strip cultivation. Most fields are defined by hedges, with those hedges around the larger fields being generally tightly trimmed and low, while the hedges around smaller pastures tend to be less intensively maintained and so form taller, fuller hedgerows. Whilst there are some smaller patches of woodland scattered among the fields, the majority of woodland is formed on steep slopes and along watercourses.
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3.4.13 Settlements in the area are dispersed, mainly along the roads, with individual farms and houses widely spaced and often hidden from each other and from roads by landform and vegetation. Houses coalesce into small groups along the A40. Llanddewi Velfrey has the greatest concentration of properties forming three main groups. Immediately adjacent to the south side of the A40, in the centre of the study area is a triangle of land, formerly known as Cross Hands, formed between roads and occupied by a large group of properties. The second group, formerly called Commercial Cross, lies on the north side of the A40 less than 200m to the west. The third group, the tiny village of Llanddewi Velfrey, is gathered loosely around the church and lies approximately 1km to the south of the A40. 3.4.14 Designated landscapes include: 1. Pembrokeshire Coast National Park; 2. Milford Haven Waterway Landscape of Historic Interest in Wales; 3. Preseli Landscape of Historic Interest in Wales; 4. Blackaldern Park and Garden of Special Historic Interest in Wales; and 5. Scheduled Ancient Monuments and Listed Buildings. 3.4.15 The section of trunk road from Penblewin to Gwyndy Farm is situated within a rural landscape with dispersed villages.
Biodiversity 3.4.16 There are no statutory designated sites for nature conservation within 2km of the proposed options. The nearest such sites are the Afon Cleddau Dwyreiniol / Eastern Cleddau River Site of Special Scientific Interest (SSSI) which forms part of the Afonydd Cleddau / Cleddau Rivers Special Area of Conservation (SAC) located approximately 2.2km to the west of the Penblewin Junction. 3.4.17 The study area for biodiversity appraisal purposes (defined as the area 500m around the proposed options) predominantly comprises areas of improved pasture with mature hedgerows and areas of broadleaved woodland associated with stream corridors. The majority of the woodlands are located in the eastern part of the study area and to the south of the existing A40. The woodlands are dominated by ash (Fraxinus excelsior ) along with oak ( Quercus sp.), silver birch ( Betula pendula ), hazel ( Corylus avellana ), willows ( Salix sp.), holly ( Ilex aquifolium ) and alder ( Alnus glutinosa ). Beech ( Fagus sylvatica ) is also present within some of the woodlands.
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3.4.18 Grassland within the study area are dominated by common species such as rye grass ( Lolium perenne ) with Yorkshire fog ( Holcus lanatus ), soft rush ( Juncus effusus ), thistles ( Cirsium sp.), buttercups (Ranunculus sp.) and ribwort plantain ( Plantago lanceolata ). Marshy grassland areas are also present near stream corridors, although the species composition is similar to other grassland areas except for a greater dominance of soft rush. 3.4.19 The majority of hedgerows, although mature, are species poor in composition with no more than four woody species. Species present within the hedgerows include hazel, hawthorn ( Crataegus monogyna ) and holly. Standard trees present in some of the hedgerows include oak, willow and ash. 3.4.20 Biological records provided for the Scheme as part of initial desk study work indicate that protected and notable species of birds, mammals including bats, otter ( Lutra lutra ), badger ( Meles meles ), hedgehog) ( Erinaceus europaeus ) and polecat ( Mustela p utorius ), reptiles, amphibians and invertebrates are likely to be present within the study area. Surveys undertaken thus have confirmed: 1. The presence of populations of common lizard (Zootoca vivipara); 2. The likely presence of great crested newts (Triturus cristatus); 3. The presence of roosts of pipistrelle and long-eared bats and foraging bats including lesser horseshoe (Rhinolophus hipposideros), greater horseshoe (Rhinolophus ferrumequinum) and barbastelle (Barbastella barbastellus); 4. The presence of dormice (Muscardinus avellanarius); 5. The presence of numerous badger setts; and 6. The presence of an assemblage of common breed birds, and evidence of barn owls (Tyto alba) within the study area. 3.4.21 Although not recorded in surveys undertaken in 2016, previous surveys have recorded the presence of otters and these are also assumed to be present along with other priority mammals species such as hedgehog, polecat and brown hare.
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Cultural Heritage 3.4.22 The archaeological and cultural heritage assets contained within the area covered by the route option is varied. Most sites are from the last 2 hundred years, with a range of sites in the area stretching back through the medieval to the Prehistoric period. Neolithic (4000 BC to 2200 BC) 3.4.23 Although Mesolithic and probably earlier, people had used this area, it is not until the Neolithic that evidence of man is known. This is limited to a couple of isolated findspots and the Llan burial chamber in Lampeter Velfrey. In the study area, there must be further Neolithic sites, but they have yet to be identified. Bronze Age (2500 BC to 700 BC) 3.4.24 Evidence of Bronze Age use of the area is shown by large numbers of round barrows the area. These are often found in concentrations such as Redstone in the west of the area. These represent a belief in the afterlife shown by the burials within them. Bronze Age society was relatively mobile; burial sites being a fixed point the landscape, located on relatively high points. Five groups of such sites have been designated as Scheduled Ancient Monuments. 3.4.25 Evidence of domestic use of the area is shown by the frequent discovery of burnt mounds. These are collections of burnt fire shattered stone in a matrix of charcoal rich soil. They are typically found in close association with springs or small watercourses. Radiocarbon dating normally shows them to be of Bronze Age date, although some are earlier and they can be as late as the Post-Roman era. On excavation, these features are usually associated with a small water-filled trough. This technique can be used for cooking or possibly, some form of sauna. These sites are very common in Wales, Ireland and Scotland. All the features in the study area were found by a single Ordnance Survey surveyor T.C. Cantrill who identified many in the region during his fieldwork in the early 20th century. It is likely that many more of these insignificant sites await discovery in the area, as shown by over 50 such sites found on the route of a pipeline across South Wales.
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Iron Age (800 BC to AD 43) 3.4.26 This period is characterised by a more settled economy featuring defended enclosures often containing houses enclosed by defensive bank and ditch. Some were formed by cutting off ridges with an earth bank to create a promontory fort. There are several of these in the western study area using the ridges along the meanders of the East Cleddau River Valley. The economy of these people is thought to be based on herds of cattle and sheep which required protection. There are many other similar enclosures known only from cropmarks in the area. Although these sites originate in the Iron Age, many continue to be used through the Roman period and it is likely that some continued even into the post Roman period. Roman (AD 43 to AD 410) 3.4.27 The most obvious evidence of Roman activity in the study area is the line of the road running west from Whitland along the north of the study area. This was well constructed with evidence of 2 periods of construction. It can be traced towards the Roman fort at Wiston, just outside study area. Though the road is likely to have had its origins in the military period, it indicates strong interest in West Wales. No other sites of Roman date have been identified, although activity has been recorded in some of the Iron Age sites adjacent to the study area. This is typical and is probably repeated in similar sites in the study area. Early Medieval (AD 410 to AD 1066) 3.4.28 The adoption of Christianity during the Roman period can be seen in the discovery of inscribed crosses in several locations dating to the early medieval. Domestic settlement probably continued or re- established itself in the defended enclosures, although new centres of settlement probably began, possibly in the locations used by later farms and, consequently, are difficult to identify. Medieval (1066 to 1540) 3.4.29 Llanddewi Velfrey, Lampeter Velfrey and Crinow were part of the commote of Efelffre, a pre-Norman territorial unit, which was the origin of the suffix Velfrey. 3.4.30 The medieval period is characterised by castles and churches with associated settlement that signified a settled landscape with a developed farming system. To the east was the Whitland Abbey, which is most associated with being the place where Hywel Dda drew up his laws around 940. It functioned as a Cistercian monastery between the 12th and 16th centuries.
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3.4.31 The period saw the early development of market towns such as Narberth, and some of the larger villages began to develop such as Lampeter Velfrey, Clunderwen and Llandissilio. The villages were set in a landscape of long rectangular fields, parts of which can be seen in the present-day landscape. Post-medieval (1540-1901) 3.4.32 The strong social and cultural division of West Wales, the Landsker line, probably was at its strongest in this period. Though it originates from the settlement of Flemings in South Pembrokeshire in the 12th century, the clearest evidence for the linguistic provision comes from names, records and civil transactions of the later period. The study area lies north of the Landsker division and firmly in the Welsh speaking area, as shown by inscriptions on gravestones in the 2 main chapels, Bethel and Ffynnon, close to the proposed road alignment. 3.4.33 Communications were prominent in this period. The line of the A40 was adopted as a turnpike between Whitland and Penblewin operated by the Whitland Trust. A later development was the railway line from Carmarthen to Haverfordwest erected in 1854 along the north of the study area. Whitland was the junction for lines to Pembroke Dock, Tenby, Fishguard and Cardigan. The station became a marshalling yard and was a focal point in the transport of agricultural products to industrial areas. The construction of a milk processing factory gave a huge impetus to the development of the town. This was in contrast the town of Narberth, isolated from both the A40 and the railway leading to a slower growth. 3.4.34 The village of Llanddewi Velfrey appears to have its origins close to the Church of St Davids. During the Victorian period, it moved more toward the line of the present day A40 as shown by historic maps. This resulted in the development of scattered linear settlement along the A40. Sites / Features 3.4.35 Sites that are located within 500m of the route options are shown in table 10.1. There are no direct impact impacts on any of these sites, although it is possible that noise and visual perception may be impacted in certain circumstance. It is known from the tender documents that other sites, in particular, 2 burnt mounds are thought to exist close to the bypass route north of Llanddewi Velfrey.
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Table 14 Sites known within 500m of the A40
Name Status Source
Ffynnon Baptist Chapel LBII NMR 6056 Gwindy Farmhouse with walls and railings to garden LBII NMR 6541 Old Stable Block at Gwindy LBII NMR 6542 War Memorial LBII NMR 18983 Cae'r Maenau Fawr House LBII NMR 21700 Gwyndy House NMR 22025 Henllan House NMR 22048 Henllan, Garden NMR 265865 Henllan Lodge NMR 302516 Settlement, Henllan NMR 309064 Henllan Enclosure NMR 402252 Bethel Welsh Independent Chapel NMR 11066
Agriculture 3.4.36 A review has been undertaken in line with the DMRB Volume 11, section 3, Part 6 and Planning Policy Wales (Edition 9, Nov 2016) to consider the potential impacts on agricultural land and farm businesses. 3.4.37 Based on detailed Agricultural Land Classification (ALC) survey work which was carried out in 2004 as part of the DMRB Stage 2 environmental work, agricultural land in and around Llanddewi Velfrey comprises predominately of sub-Grade 3b quality land with some small areas of sub-grade 3a and Grade 4. 3.4.38 The proposed route alignment affects an area of predominately permanent pastureland which is grazed by livestock (beef, sheep and dairy) and utilised for fodder production.
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Water Environment 3.4.39 Much of the route runs along higher ground, with levels falling away to the north and south. The crest of the topography forms the watershed between 2 catchments. The baseline identified in this section includes: a) Cleddau and Pembrokeshire Coastal Rivers Management Catchment, receiving flows from Longford Brook; a. Longford Brook is crossed approximately midway along the proposed route at Ffynnon Farm. It is joined by a number of unnamed tributaries, a number of which rise within the 500m study area, before joining the East Cleddau, downstream of LLawhaden. b. Sits above Tywi, Taf and Gwendraeth WFD groundwater body. b) Carmarthen Bay and the Gower, receiving flows from Afon Daulan, Afon Marlais and the Afon Taff; a. The Afon Daulan and a number of its unnamed tributaries. The Afon Daulan and an unnamed tributary are crossed by the proposed route to the north of Llanddewi Velfrey, near Pen-troydin-fawr. Another tributary to the northeast of the Scheme, is within the 500m study area; b. The Afon Marlais and a number of its unnamed tributaries. The Afon Marlais itself is at its closest 350m from the Scheme's western boundary, whilst its tributaries are within 100m of the proposed route. The catchment is parallel to the southern boundary of the existing route of the A40. Based on available OS mapping, none are crossed by the proposed route; c. 2 unnamed tributaries of the Afon Taf, which are not crossed by, but are within, 200m and 500m from the eastern boundary of the proposed route; d. Sits above the Cleddau and Pembrokeshire WFD groundwater body 3.4.40 There are also a number of ponds and springs at multiple locations, within 500m of the route. As the proposed route spans the watershed between multiple catchments, the watercourses described above arise across the study area, with the majority indicated on OS mapping as being spring-fed.
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3.5 Economic
Economic performance and industrial structure 3.5.1 Data on Gross Value Added (GVA) per head of population can be used to give an indication of economic performance. This data is available for NUTS 28 regions of the UK, but not at lower level geographies. Pembrokeshire falls within the NUTS3 region of South- West Wales, which also includes Carmarthenshire and Ceredigion. Error! Reference source not found. shows that South-West Wales ecorded the fourth lowest level of GVA per head of any NUTS3 region in Wales in 2015. GVA per head was £15,728 in South-West Wales, compared with £18,002 across the country.
(Source: ONS, Regional GVA, 2015) Figure 18 Gross Value Added (GVA) per head of population, NUTS3 areas in Wales
28 Nomenclature of Territorial Units.
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3.5.2 Figure 19 presents data on GVA per filled job, which can be used as a measure of productivity. This shows a similar pattern, with South- West Wales recording the third lowest level of GVA per filled job in Wales in 2015. GVA per filled job was £36,322 in South-West Wales, compared with £40,192 across the country.
(Source: ONS, Subregional productivity, 2015) Figure 19 GVA per filled job, NUTS3 areas in Wales
3.5.3 Data on average wages is available at local authority level. This shows that Pembrokeshire is also a relatively low-wage economy, recording median gross weekly earnings that are below the national average on both a resident and workplace basis. The underlying data shows that Pembrokeshire has some of the lowest average wages in Wales, with only Merthyr Tydfil, Gwynedd and Blaenau Gwent recording lower resident-based wages, and Merthyr Tydfil, Gwynedd, Blaenau Gwent and Conwy recording lower workplace-based wages.
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(Source: ONS, Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, 2016)
Figure 20 Median gross weekly pay, workplace and resident-based 3.5.4 It is likely that this data reflects the importance to the local economy of employment in several relatively low-wage and low-productivity sectors such as agriculture, forestry and fishing, and accommodation and food services 29 and the relative under-representation of higher- productivity sectors such as manufacturing and business services, as well as the higher than average rate of self-employment recorded across the county (see Table 9). 3.5.5 Table 15 sets out data on industry of employment, and shows that both Pembrokeshire and the study area record higher than average proportions of working-age residents in agriculture, forestry and fishing, and in construction. Pembrokeshire also has a higher than average proportion of residents working in accommodation and food, reflecting the importance of tourism and the visitor economy.
29 A recent report by the Institute of Public Policy Research into Britain’s low-wage sectors identified the following sectors that are both low-wage and low-productivity: agriculture, forestry and fishing; wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles; accommodation and food services; administrative and support service activities; and arts, entertainment and recreation. IPPR (2016) Boosting Britain’s Low-wage Sectors: A strategy for productivity, innovation and growth.
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Table 15: Industry of Employment – proportion of residents aged 16-74
Industry Wales Pembrokeshire Study Area G Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor 15.6% 15.7% 16.1% vehicles and motor cycles Q Human health and social work activities 14.5% 13.4% 14.2% P Education 10.1% 9.3% 10.1% F Construction 8.2% 10.7% 10.0% C Manufacturing 10.5% 7.6% 7.2% I Accommodation and food service activities 6.2% 8.7% 6.0% O Public administration and defence; compulsory 7.9% 7.4% 5.9% social security R, S, T, U Other 4.5% 5.2% 5.8% A Agriculture, forestry and fishing 1.7% 4.7% 5.7% M Professional, scientific and technical activities 4.3% 4.1% 5.1% H Transport and storage 3.9% 4.0% 4.4% N Administrative and support service activities 4.0% 3.6% 3.5% K Financial and insurance activities 3.1% 1.3% 1.4% J Information and communication 2.3% 1.2% 1.4% L Real estate activities 1.2% 1.2% 1.3% B Mining and quarrying 0.2% 0.5% 0.7% E Water supply; sewerage, waste management and 0.9% 0.7% 0.6% remediation activities D Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply 0.8% 0.7% 0.6%
3.5.6 Despite recording lower than average levels of productivity across South-West Wales and lower than average wage rates in Pembrokeshire, both the study area and Pembrokeshire have a relatively highly-qualified workforce. Within the study area, 29.3% of residents aged 16 and over have a degree-level qualification, compared with 24.8% in Pembrokeshire and 24.5% across Wales. The proportion of the population with no formal qualifications is below average in both the study area and Pembrokeshire. Educational deprivation is also low, with all three LSOAs within the study area falling into the 20% least deprived in Wales.
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Economic development and opportunities for growth 3.5.7 The data above supports the strategic developments and economic regeneration initiatives within the Pembrokeshire economy, which aim to stimulate economic development, create high-skilled jobs and reduce the claimant count (and could affect traffic levels using the A40 in the future): a) The formation of the Swansea Bay City Region; b) The further growth of the Haven Waterway Enterprise Zone; c) The growth plans for Pembroke Port and the Port of Milford Haven; and d) Pembrokeshire County Council Local Development Plan proposals. Swansea Bay City Region 3.5.8 The Swansea Bay City Region covers the local authority areas of Swansea City, Neath Port Talbot, Carmarthenshire and Pembrokeshire, extending over an area of 4,805 square kilometres and with a combined population of over 685,000. 3.5.9 The city region is seen to offer a new approach to economic regeneration, offering: 7. Larger and more efficient labour markets and therefore better prospects for job creation; 8. Scope for better planning of housing, transport, support for business and other services beyond existing administrative boundaries; and 9. Better prospects for attracting inward investment and value added economic activity. 3.5.10 The Region board have recently outlined a £1.3bn City Deal which would fund projects covering the four local authorities over a 15-year period. 3.5.11 Investment aims to deliver up to 9,465 new jobs in the region, contributing to uplift in gross value added (GVA) of £1.8bn. 3.5.12 Of the 11 projects that were defined at the bid stage, the Haven Waterway area featured with £76.3m identified for the Pembroke Dock Marine project which would focus on the development of a marine energy test area utilising the deep port of Milford Haven, an energy engineering centre of excellence and a wave energy demonstration zone.
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3.5.13 It was hoped that an agreement in principle would be given from the UK Government in the Spring Budget and although this wasn’t forthcoming the Board hope that they can begin to draw down funding in the short term to kick start projects as early as possible within the 15-year period. 3.5.14 It is considered that the A40 connection to the Enterprise Zone will contribute to the success of the project identified within the City Deal, to provide fit-for -purpose strategic highway infrastructure to this strategic employment area. Haven Waterway Enterprise Zone 3.5.15 In 2012, the Haven Waterway was declared an Enterprise Zone by the Welsh Government, due to its importance for the energy sector. The Zone is considered to be an attractive location for energy companies with its excellent access to energy infrastructure, established supply chain and distribution infrastructure, skilled workforce and network of universities with expertise in a range of energy-related fields. 3.5.16 The zone is also recognised for gaining a marine energy focus and for its diversity and innovation with a range of local businesses. Alongside new and established energy, food and tourism businesses and their extensive supply chains, life sciences, ICT and manufacturing firms are flourishing in Haven Waterway Enterprise Zone. 3.5.17 Figure 21 below shows the range and geographic extent of sites within the Haven Waterway.
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Figure 21 Haven Waterway
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3.5.18 The sites contain a mix of opportunities ranging from existing industrial areas with existing units and potential for expansion (e.g. Goodwick and Withybush Industrial Park) to strategic employment opportunities (e.g. Priory Park and the Science and Technology Park) and existing key facilities (e.g. ports of Milford Haven and Fishguard). 3.5.19 Transport links are a key selling feature of the enterprise zones in Wales and whilst the Haven Waterway is recognised as a gateway to Ireland through Milford Haven port there is a need to ensure that the key road connections are of a standard to serve the zone and attract inward investment opportunities. 3.5.20 However, the Trunk Road Forward Programme has identified the A40 West of St Clears as forming the lowest standard section of the TEN-T in the UK. Pembroke Port and Port of Milford Haven 3.5.21 Pembroke Port and Port of Milford Haven are key employment areas in the region, and rely on road access including the A40 for the movement of good and people. 3.5.22 Pembroke Port is a secure deep-water cargo port, specialising in the transportation of loose, baled, palletised and heavy lift cargoes - from animal feed and aggregates to refinery components and renewables devices 30 . The Port facilitates a diverse range of businesses and projects including ship building, marine renewables and transportation. 3.5.23 The Port of Milford Haven is the UK's largest energy port and the biggest port in Wales. The Port is the country’s largest handler of oil and gas, and is capable of delivering 30% of the UK gas demand. Activities such as cargo handling, ferry operations, fish landing, marina services and cruise calls are undertaken. 3.5.24 In 2011, the Port of Milford Haven commissioned a new economic report by Cardiff University on the employment and economic impact of the Port and the industries that are linked to it. The key findings are:
30 https://www.mhpa.co.uk/pembroke-port/
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a) The Waterway supports over 5,000 jobs in Wales as a whole, 4,000 of which are in Pembrokeshire; b) 30% of jobs in the local economy are in oil refining, gas processing and power generation; c) 10% of jobs are in sea transport services; d) £324m of gross value added (GVA) is injected into the Pembrokeshire economy by activities dependent on the Waterway; and e) £88.5m of GVA is put into the Welsh economy. 3.5.25 The Port is committed to continually investing in port infrastructure and services that delivers sustainable economic growth in Pembrokeshire. Current port projects that demonstrate future growth opportunities for the region include: • Milford Waterfront: a flagship development that comprises approximately 380,000 sqft of development space for hotels, restaurants, food retail and leisure development; • Marine Renewables: as a key operating hub for the traditional energy sector, it is now also proving of value to the emerging renewables sector - particularly marine renewables. The location offers proximity to natural energy resources, a highly-skilled supply chain, and extensive supporting infrastructure. Work is underway by the Port operators to increase the opportunities presented by this sector; and • piSCES: an Interreg funded project (supported by the European Regional Development Fund), it aims to use smart grid technologies to reduce the costs and carbon footprint of Energy Networks in the fish processing industry. This will be done through modelling the usage profile of their energy networks and optimising that against the wholesale energy market and any available onsite generation. 3.5.26 The A40 and A477 directly connect the region to Milford Haven and Pembroke. Any improvements would help to enable and support access to the above future development opportunities.
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Local Development Plan Proposals 3.5.27 The Pembrokeshire County Council Local Development Plan (LDP) was adopted in February 2013 and sets the policy framework for the County (excluding the National Park area). 3.5.28 Within the area immediately adjacent to the proposed improvement, the LDP identifies the Llanddewi Velfrey to Penblewin improvement scheme specifically under Policy GN.39 ‘Transport Routes and Improvements’ and the proposals map identifies a safeguarded route for the improvements (see Figure 22 ). 3.5.29 Within Llanddewi Velfrey, the LDP identifies a housing allocation to the north of the village hall for a minimum of 12 units and an area of open space which is afforded protection through the plan (see Figure 22 ). 3.5.30 Within the wider area, the LDP identifies a number of other housing and employment allocations within Narberth, Clarbeston Road and Haverfordwest, all of which will potentially add traffic to the A40. 3.5.31 The main strategic growth in the area is located within the settlements of Haverfordwest, Milford Haven, Pembroke and Fishguard.
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Figure 22 Extract from the Pembrokeshire LDP
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4 Evidence Base
4.1 Strategic Case 4.1.1 The Strategic Case addresses the need for change. It presents an evidence based description of the current situation, describes the likely future situation if no action is taken and presents reasons why an intervention is required.
Previous development work 4.1.2 A great deal of development work has previously been undertaken and informed both the location of planned improvements and the preferred design of any highway improvements along the A40 between St Clears and Haverfordwest. This is summarised in Figure 23 and described further below.
Figure 23 Timeline of Previous Development Work (2001-2017)
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4.1.3 In November 2001, the National Assembly for Wales published The Transport Framework for Wales. This outlined that the east-west transport corridor in west Wales had been the subject of a multi-modal study, which concluded that the A40 west of St Clears was in need of improvements. 4.1.4 In March 2002, the Trunk Road Forward Programme (TRFP) was published and included the A40 West of St Clears, stating: ‘Improvement of the A40 trunk road, whether it be to single or dual carriageway standard, is beneficial in economic terms. Improvement to the road would not affect the number of people travelling on public transport significantly… The A40 in West Wales forms the lowest standard section of the Trans European Road Network in the United Kingdom and there are major problems associated with upgrading the freight carrying capacity of rail in this area which means that significant improvement in the foreseeable future is not viable… We are therefore satisfied that improvement to the A40 between St Clears and Haverfordwest is needed and that economic benefits will accrue. Upgrading the road to dual carriageway standard is likely to be justified but before a decision is finally made, we need more information on the environmental implications associated with alternative standards.’ 4.1.5 The multi-modal study did consider public transport improvements including rail, bus, freight and integrated bus and rail. However, it was concluded that the costs associated with enhanced passenger services were likely to exceed revenue, thus requiring an operating subsidy. It was also acknowledged that improvements to public transport would not reduce the amount of traffic on the A40 trunk road. 4.1.6 This early work therefore steered the decision to pursue road based enhancements on the A40 and a Route Options Report (ROR) 31 was subsequently commissioned to explore single and dual carriageway options. 4.1.7 The ROR was published in 2004 and considered a number of options as outlined below: 1. Option1 - a northern relief road passing to the north of the Blaen Pen-troydin farm from Gwyndy Farm to Ffynnon Wood; 2. Option2 – a short relief road for the eastern half of the village; 3. Option3 – a minor realignment for the eastern half of the village; 4. Option4 - a northern relief road passing to the north of the Blaen Pen-troydin farm from Bethel Chapel to east of Ffynnon Wood;
31 Parsons Brinckerhoff – A40 West of St Clears Route Options Report, 2004
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5. Option 5 - a northern/southern relief road, which would cross the line of the existing road in the village centre; 6. Option 6 - a northern relief road passing to the south of the Blaen Pen-troydin woodland; 7. Option 7 - a northern relief road passing to the north of the Blaen Pen-troydin farm from Bethel Chapel to Ffynnon Wood; and 8. Option 8 - a northern relief road passing to the north of Blaen Pen- troydin woodland. 4.1.8 The section from Ffynnon Wood to Penblewin was identified as a maintenance scheme. 4.1.9 In light that this development work preceded WelTAG (2008), each of the options were appraised using the STAG 32 appraisal process, with consideration given to the impact on the environment, the economics of the options and transport planning benefits. The results were presented in an appraisal summary table at Appendix B of the ROR, which should be referred to for further information about the selection of options for further appraisal at that time. 4.1.10 In summary, that work concluded that a number of route options should be discarded for reasons including: a) Cost; b) Major adverse environmental impact (woodland habitat); and c) Not addressing the identified overtaking and severance problems. 4.1.11 Other routes that performed better in addressing the problems balanced with their likely economic, social and environmental impacts, were taken forward for further consideration in a Technical Appraisal Report (TAR) 2004 33 , which was subsequently undertaken. 4.1.12 Through considering these various options it was identified early in the appraisal process that routes to the south would present significant problems due to topography and the number and location of residential properties and environmental constraints. Therefore, development work focussed in more detail on routes along or to the north of the existing A40 alignment.
32 Scottish Government – Scottish transport appraisal guidance (STAG), 2003 33 Parsons Brinckerhoff – A40 West of St Clears Study Technical Appraisal Report, 2004
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4.1.13 As part of the TAR 2004, a number of horizontal alignments were developed to determine optimum routes that would minimise agricultural severance, avoid sensitive ecological features and large earthworks. 4.1.14 Alongside the TAR, a DMRB Stage 2 Environmental Appraisal Report (EAR) was completed in 2004 and was used to inform the appraisal findings. A Business Case was also developed in 2004 and formed the basis of a submission to the Assembly Minister. 4.1.15 The TAR 2004 recommended a single carriageway improvement strategy which was accepted as being appropriate in the short to medium term and following the findings of the appraisal within the 2004 ROR and TAR, the Welsh Government announced the publication of an addendum to the 2002 Trunk Road Forward Programme (Addendum, 2004) and this included 2 major improvement schemes for the A40 west of St Clears: 1. A40 Penblewin – Slebech Park improvement (completed in March 2011); and 2. A40 Llanddewi Velfrey to Penblewin improvement (focus of this report). 4.1.16 Following this announcement, an addendum to the TAR was completed in 2006, which further considered 2 route options along with a 2+1 carriageway strategy instead of a single carriageway strategy. The 2 options considered further were: 1. Options 5, The Central Route – close to the existing trunk road network; and 2. Option 8, The Northern Route – that took a route around the north of Blaen-pen-Troydin wood and Llanddewi Velfrey village centre. 4.1.17 In addition, consideration was given to the common section between Ffynnon Chapel and Penblewin Roundabout and the 2006 TAR explored: 1. Online improvements following the existing alignment; 2. Online 2+1 standard; and 3. Offline 2+1 standard.
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4.1.18 The analysis indicated that all route options would represent value for money, particularly with the section between Ffynnon Chapel and Penblewin Roundabout. The environmental impact of both options was concluded as being similar in magnitude but slightly different in type with the Northern route providing an effective bypass but having an adverse impact on land use and landscape in particular. The Central Route may not be perceived as an effective bypass and could have an adverse impact on the structure and landscape of the village. 4.1.19 The 2006 TAR recommended that all options should be taken forward for public consultation. 4.1.20 A public consultation process was subsequently completed on these options in 2006 over an 8-week period with a public exhibition held in Llanddewi Velfrey on 13 and 14 September 2006. In summary the consultation sought views on the following route options (see Figure 24 ): 1. Blue route – a bypass option to the north of Llanddewi Velfrey from Gwyndy Farm to Ffynnon Wood; 2. Red route – an option which follows closely the existing trunk road; 3. Orange route – Online improvement of the existing trunk road between Ffynnon Wood and Penblewin Roundabout; and 4. Purple route – Offline improvement between Ffynnon Wood and Penblewin Roundabout.
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Figure 24 Options presented at previous public consultation (2006)
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4.1.21 The consultation showed clear public support for improving the section of the A40 between Gwyndy Farm and Penblewin Roundabout. There was a clear preference expressed for the Blue route, however no clear preference emerged for either the Purple or Orange routes. 4.1.22 This engagement process showed strong support for the proposed bypass of Llanddewi Velfrey between Gwyndy Farm and Ffynnon Wood. Of the options presented, the Blue Route was preferred. Whilst there was also overall support for improvements to the section of A40 between Ffynnon Wood and the Penblewin Roundabout, there was no clear preference expressed on the routes presented. 4.1.23 During a reprioritisation of the TRFP in 2008 the Llanddewi Velfrey to Penblewin scheme was identified as a ‘Phase 3 scheme’ and has since received continued ministerial support and further work has been completed. 4.1.24 In July 2013, Edwina Hart, Minister for Economy, Science and Transport, published a written statement outlining her priorities for Transport. This statement included: “Improving the A40 has been identified as a priority by the Haven Waterway Enterprise Zone Board and I intend to undertake further development of previously proposed improvements.” 4.1.25 The issue of the A40 was further expressed in November 2014 following the announcement of the closure of the Milford Haven Refinery. Reflecting on this announcement, the Minister made the following oral Statement in Plenary: 4.1.26 “In terms of transport links… I have instructed my officials to accelerate to the fullest extent possible the programme for delivering improvements at Llanddewi Velfrey. I have also asked my officials to conduct further urgent work to explore additional ways to improve the A40, including the potential for dualling.” 4.1.27 The Welsh Government subsequently commissioned a study in 2015, which updated work completed previously. The 2015 study further considered the need for the A40 Llanddewi Velfrey to Penblewin improvement and appraised a number of options for improvement of the A40. The study utilised WelTAG 2008 guidance to undertake an equivalent Stage 1 appraisal on a number of improvements options along the A40 West of St Clears. This included the committed scheme which had emerged through previous development work and was referenced within the Pembrokeshire LDP.
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4.1.28 The 2015 study reconfirmed that the main problems with this section of the A40 are: 1. Limited overtaking opportunities (particularly eastbound), which leads to poor journey time reliability and driver frustration risky manoeuvres and collision incidents; 2. Inconsistency in the level of overtaking provision between the eastbound and westbound directions with currently a total of 5.5km in the westbound direction and 3.2km in the eastbound; 3. Where overtaking provision does exist, it is currently not spread along the length of the A40 such that there are long lengths in each direction with no opportunity for overtaking; 4. Convoys of heavy goods vehicles from the ferry ports and slow moving agricultural vehicles both of which contribute to periods of platooning and journey time unreliability when combined with limited overtaking opportunity; 5. Slow moving traffic during the summer tourist seasons causing platooning and journey time unreliability when combined with limited overtaking opportunity; 6. Community severance at Llanddewi Velfrey; 7. Sub-standard sections of existing road especially at Llanddewi Velfrey; 8. A mix of traffic types including local motorists, HGVs, agricultural vehicles, strategic travellers and tourists on the same road; 9. Numerous side road junctions and the high number of direct accesses to property and fields; and 10. There are seasonal spikes in traffic volumes on the A40 and indeed the A477 during the summer months.
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4.1.29 The 2015 study also involved an Economic Activity and Location Impacts (EALI) Report. That report explained whilst the A40 may be seen as an important local issue, it is unlikely that a conventional Transport Economic Efficiency (TEE) analysis would generate a positive Net Present Value (NPV) and Benefit-Cost Ratio (BCR) for a scheme of this nature given the relatively low traffic volumes. The report clarified that EALI Guidance states that: “It is important to recognise that perceptions of problems with the transport system by users, operators, the public at large and politicians can be equally as important as problems that can be quantified through analysis of data”. 4.1.30 Reflecting the data presented for the economy in this report, the 2015 study found: a. The South West Wales region has lagged behind the other areas in Wales in terms of productivity. b. The County was disproportionally impacted by the recession and is lagging behind the rest of Wales in terms of its recovery; c. Unemployment is highest in the main industrial areas of Milford Haven and Pembroke Dock; d. The south-east and south-west of the County, particularly industrial Pembroke Dock and Milford Haven have the lowest levels of attainment reflecting the wider socio-economic profiles of these areas; e. The absence of higher education establishments in Pembrokeshire means that prospective students have to leave the County to study; and f. Pembrokeshire is perhaps not receiving an equitable share of foreign direct investment projects and this may, in part be due to perceptions of, or the reality of, its peripheral location which are exacerbated by the current standard of the A40.
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4.1.31 The 2015 study also explained how: a) A common theme to emerge during a consultation process was that Pembrokeshire is perceived to be ‘far away’ and that this is deterring inward investment, the development of the travel-to-work market within the Swansea Bay City Region, tourism and population retention; b) The evidence collected through the baselining, consultation and business survey in 2015 suggests that the main impact of improving the Pembrokeshire road network would be to tackle the perception of remoteness; c) Road improvements could support Pembrokeshire in attracting additional inward investment to the area and would assist Pembrokeshire in tackling perception-related issues facing the area. 4.1.32 The 2015 concluded: “There remains a good case for proceeding with the A40 Llanddewi Velfrey to Penblewin improvement scheme, using the 2+1 configuration which is currently included in the National Transport Schedule (ref R15)… The scheme includes unambiguous lengths for overtaking, would address community severance in the village of Llanddewi Velfrey and deliver small improvements to journey times, journey reliability and road safety on the A40”. 4.1.33 Building on this previous development work, this WelTAG 2017 Stage 2 appraisal seeks to help define a preferred intervention for this section of the A40.
Engagement 4.1.34 The previous section of this report explains how a public consultation process in 2006 sought views on the A40 and possible solutions, whilst the 2015 Study further considered the problems and possible solutions. In particular, a 2015 consultation with businesses was undertaken to explore the economic barriers and potential impacts that A40 improvements could make 34 . In summary, feedback clarified: a) Enhanced transport connectivity to employment opportunities within the Swansea Bay City Region could reduce the insularity of the Pembrokeshire travel-to-work market, and if the actual or perceived change was such that it created a demand for in- migration to the area (or increased population retention), it is possible that this could enhance the commercial viability of land;
34 A40 St Clears to Haverfordwest Economic Activity & Location Impacts (EALI) Study 2015
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b) The A40 is seen to be the main route for the agriculture sector and it is acknowledged that this does present some specific problems in terms of tractors moving between fields, tractors towing trailers and the movement of agricultural produce and livestock in standard commercial vehicles. There are numerous farms where the same farmer owns land north and south of the A40, which means that farmers need to use the road when travelling between their different holdings. Whilst they are believed to try and make such movements at off-peak times, this is not always possible, particularly at harvest leading to traffic disruption; c) There is evidence to suggest that the travel time to Pembrokeshire and the perception that the area is remote is acting as a barrier to growing the tourism market, and hence the contribution of the area towards the Welsh Tourism Strategy 2013-20. There was a strong view amongst a number of consultees that an improvement would help to tackle the perception that Pembrokeshire is ‘far away’ by connecting it to the dual carriageway network, thus attracting more visitors; d) The top three issues experienced by businesses that responded to a business survey were ‘Poor journey time reliability – summer only’ (42 high / medium adverse impact responses), ‘Vehicle platooning & lack of overtaking opportunities’ (41 high / medium adverse impact responses) and ‘Other congestion on the A40 in West Wales’ (38 high / medium adverse impact responses). Abnormal load restrictions were not considered an issue by the highest number of businesses (45 responses); and e) The business survey found that the businesses in the study area believed that an upgrade of the A40 between St Clears and Haverfordwest would have a high positive impact especially on customer / visitor numbers, marketing & promotion of their business and future investment plans in Pembrokeshire.
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4.1.35 As part of WelTAG 2017, involvement is recommended to help shape the identification and appraisal of problems, objectives and possible solutions. WelTAG 2017 specifically requires a Review Group to help steer the appraisal process. 4.1.36 A Review Group for the Scheme was established at the outset of the Stage 1 appraisal in order to help ensure that key stakeholders were identified and meet on a regular basis to be involved in any decision making. 4.1.37 The Review Group comprises the Welsh Government and its Employer’s Agent, Pembrokeshire County Council, the appointed Contractor (Carillion) and its Designer (Arup). The Review Group is as outlined in Figure 25.
Welsh Government
Employer's Carillion Agent A40 Llanddewi Velfrey to Penblewin
Pembrokeshire Arup County Council
Figure 25 Review Group 4.1.38 The Review Group will meet at key milestones in each of the WelTAG Stages in order to consider the content of the WelTAG reports and actions to be taken forward to the next stage of the process. 4.1.39 The Review Group will also play a key role in advising on the methods to be adopted in assessing impacts of the option(s) to be taken forward for subsequent Stages and should make recommendations in relation to any specific additional evidence and/or modelling requirements.
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Review Group Stage 1 Workshop 4.1.40 A WelTAG Stage 1 workshop was held on 6 March 2017 to which all members of the review group were invited. The workshop discussed the revised WelTAG process and agreed how to proceed with the Stage 1 appraisal for the Scheme. As outlined in the first section of this report, WelTAG 2017 Stage 1 requires the identification of the problem(s), objectives and possible solutions for appraisal. 4.1.41 In order to inform discussions, a draft list of problems and objectives were presented. These were based on the outcomes of previous development work and the review of relevant legislation, policy and guidance. 4.1.42 The workshop attendees discussed and agreed a list of problems that the Scheme should aim to address, with consensus that the problems whilst taking into account previous development work still remained valid problems today, including additions. These are presented in section 4.2 of this report. 4.1.43 The workshop attendees discussed and reviewed the initial list of objectives against the 2015 Act Well-being goals, and a revised list of objectives were agreed. These are presented in section 4.3 of this report. 4.1.44 Following agreement on the problems and objectives, the workshop presented an indicative long list of options for the improvements which built on previous development work and included a combination of online and offline options in addition to a number of non-road building options. Agreement was reached that the Stage 1 appraisal should consider a variety of options and not focus only on road building options. These are presented in section 4.4 of this report.
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Public Information Exhibition 4.1.45 Exhibitions were held at Llanddewi Velfrey Village Hall, on the 25th and 27 th April 2017 between 10am and 8pm. The exhibition location was identified as being central and accessible to those most affected by the proposed scheme to maximise attendance. Measures that were undertaken to publicise the Public Information Exhibitions included: a) Personal Invitation Letters hand delivered throughout the local community; b) Invite poster uploaded onto the Pembrokeshire internal Intranet; c) Invite posters displayed at prominent locations in the local area; d) Stakeholder Invitation Letters via email communication or post (including Non-Motorised User (NMU ) groups, non-statutory environmental bodies and other road user groups who may be affected by the proposals); and e) A bilingual brochure with a plan was prepared and made available at the exhibitions to provide information about the scheme. It also included an outline programme and details about stakeholder engagement. 4.1.46 Copies and further details about the events are reported in a Public Information Exhibition Report (May 2017) 35 . 4.1.47 The purpose of the exhibitions was to: a) Introduce the project team; b) Explain the scheme; c) Understand concerns based on the proposals as presented in the WelTAG Stage 1 Report (then draft); d) Seek opinion on the potential junction strategy and to extend improvements; and e) Advise on stakeholder engagement and the process going forward. 4.1.48 174 people signed the attendance register over the two events. Comments Forms and Verbal Record Sheets helped record feedback.
35 Welsh Government, A40 Llanddewi Velfrey to Penblewin Improvements, A40 1st Public Information Exhibition Report May 2017
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4.1.49 An overwhelming majority of those who provided feedback were in favour of the scheme going ahead. Of those that provided feedback, the top 5 issues (not ranked) were: 1. Impact on Bethel Chapel including parking and access to adjoining local properties; 2. The junction arrangement at the eastern tie-in, with regard provision of a roundabout or ‘T’- Junction arrangement (with no clear preference expressed at the time); 3. Access track locations and future maintenance liability in particular those to the west of the village of Llanddewi Velfrey including Bounty Farm, Pencaerminau Farm and properties within Fynnon Woods. 4. Improving NMU access around the area, in particular feedback suggested the Welsh Government consider how the existing A40 could be modified to improve connectivity and NMU recreational use once the new route is opened; and 5. The impacts of farm severance particularly in relation to Pentroydin Fawr and Pentroydin Fach Farms. 4.1.50 Only a limited number of attendees mentioned concerns over environmental impact. Of those that did, some comments were made and discussion held where noise was raised as a concern, with local apprehensions where the road would be built in close proximity to existing residential properties. 4.1.51 Six members of the Llanddewi Velfrey Community Council representatives attended the exhibitions. They expressed two key issues: access and parking for the Bethel Chapel; and the eastern tie-in junction form. They expressed a view that the junction should be easy to use and safe and thought that that would be best served by a roundabout arrangement. 4.1.52 The feedback has helped the design team and Review Group to consider key issues and help address concerns in the design development phase, moving forward to Stage 2 and Stage 3 appraisal and associated assessments. In particular, a focus is on: a) Eastern junction tie-in: Development of a design for both a roundabout and T-junction tie-in at the eastern end. Focus will be on addressing the concerns of impact on Bethel Chapel and adjoining properties, maximising safe access onto the A40 from the village, optimising traffic flows and journey time reliability;
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b) Access Tracks: Development of a solution which provides access to Fynnon Woods properties, Pencaerminau Farm and Bounty Farm. Focus will be on addressing concerns over land severance, future maintenance liability/adoption by Pembrokeshire County Council, considerations on preference of travel direction expressed by individual landowners; and c) NMU Provision: Development of an NMU strategy to maximise and encourage the use of existing public rights of way (PRoW) whilst considering provision of addition of new routes to encourage NMU use and take advantage of the current A40 route that would be detrunked. At Henllan Lodge, development of a solution which can incorporate the provision a Bridleway underpass running north to south and avoiding the need to construct an access road to the rear of Henllan Lodge by bringing it back in front.
Review Group Stage 2 Workshop 4.1.53 A WelTAG Stage 2 workshop was held on 31 May 2017 to which all members of the review group were invited. The workshop discussed the outcomes of the WelTAG Stage 1 Report and agreed how to proceed with the Stage 2 appraisal for the Scheme; that it should consider design options and junction strategies to help decide upon a preferred solution based on Highway Option A (as recommended by the Stage 1 appraisal). As outlined in earlier sections of this report, WelTAG 2017 Stage 2 requires the further appraisal of shortlisted options, to help progress a preferred solution at Stage 3. 4.1.54 In order to inform discussions, a draft list of sub-options were presented. These were based on the outcomes of previous development work, the public information exhibition results and the review of relevant legislation, policy and guidance. A junction strategy has not been considered previously. The workshop attendees also considered the sub-options against the problems that the Scheme should aim to address, and the objectives. 4.1.55 Technical discussions helped informed a Design Options Report 36 . 4.1.56 Wider discussion on likely impacts against economic, social and environmental criteria helped inform WelTAG Stage 2 appraisal and is reported in this document and the Stage 2 Report.
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Local meeting 4.1.57 An email from Simon Hart MP for Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire to the Welsh Government dated 24 July 2017 explained that following the public information exhibition, it is the view of the Community Council and residents who have contacted him that: “a T-junction would be a) dangerous, and b) cause lengthy delays which would in turn add to the danger element.” 4.1.58 Whilst no evidence has been provided by the Community Council or local residents in relation to the concerns expressed about a T-junction solution at the eastern end of the Scheme, support for a roundabout is clear. Simon Hart MP clarifies in his email: 4.1.59 “I have dealt with similar discussions on trunk roads throughout the constituency and there is no doubt that roundabouts are a much preferred and much safer option when these improvements have been undertaken.”
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4.2 Problems 4.2.1 Based on the previous development work and consideration of the latest data and evidence base, the issues along the A40 Llanddewi Velfrey to Penblewin that were identified and discussed by the Review Group were:
a) Limited overtaking opportunities which lead to poor journey time reliability and driver frustration, risky manoeuvres and collision incidents. b) Inconsistency in the level of overtaking provision between the eastbound and westbound directions. c) Where overtaking provision does exist it is currently not spread along the length of the A40 such as there are long lengths in each direction with no overtaking opportunities. d) Convoys of heavy goods vehicles from the ferry ports and slow moving agricultural vehicles, both of which contribute to periods of platooning and journey time unreliability when combined with limited overtaking opportunity. e) Seasonal spikes in traffic volumes along the A40 and during the summer months. This leads to slow moving tourist traffic causing journey time unreliability when combined with limited overtaking opportunity. f) Community severance at Llanddewi Velfrey via the current A40 alignment itself. g) Conflict between vehicle traffic and Non-Motorised Users, particularly along sections where footways are sub-standard. h) Sub-standard sections of existing road, especially at Llanddewi Velfrey. i) Numerous side road junctions and the high number of direct accesses to property and fields. j) A mix of traffic types using the road, contributing to journey time unreliability and driver frustration, risky manoeuvres and collision incidents. k) A lack of strategic public transport connectivity in Pembrokeshire generally means there is a dependence on the private car for inter- urban connections.
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4.2.2 As outlined in the previous section, the need for change along this section of the A40 has emerged through a large amount of previous development work, which has helped identify the problems on the corridor and identify a range of potential options that could help address the identified problems. That work has informed policy development and iterations of decision making by Welsh Ministers which has led to the progression of the A40 Llanddewi Velfrey to Penblewin project. At this latest stage of appraisal, an up to date review of the context and baseline information has been taken into account (as presented in section 3 and 4 of this report), which has helped refresh the understanding of the problems that any transport intervention should aim to address. 4.2.3 The problems with the A40 Llanddewi Velfrey to Penblewin have been discussed and agreed by the Review Group and are summarised in Table 16, alongside a summary of supporting evidence. Table 16 Problems
No. Problem Evidence P1 The road is sub-standard The A40 within the study area is below modern and where overtaking design standards. It forms part of the A40 West of provision does exist it is St Clears which is the lowest standard section of the currently not spread TEN-T in the UK. along the length of the Pavements within this section also fall below A40 such as there are modern standards in terms of widths. long lengths in each Existing provision along the A40 gives a total of direction with no safe 5.5km overtaking lanes in the westbound direction overtaking and 3.2km in the eastbound, amounting to some opportunities. 13% of the total 32.5km length. This is well below the 30% ratio advised for this type of route. For vehicles travelling eastbound, there are constraints to overtaking for at least 19km from Robeston Wathen towards St Clears roundabout and for vehicles travelling westbound for 9.5km from Canaston Bridge to Haverfordwest roundabout. Section 3.2.53-62 of the IAR indicates how the lack of safe overtaking opportunities and substandard design has contributed to fatalities and serious accidents occurring.
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No. Problem Evidence P2 Limited overtaking The A40 currently offers limited areas which allow opportunities lead to safe unambiguous overtaking opportunities. There poor journey time is inconsistency in the level of overtaking provision reliability and driver between the eastbound and westbound directions. frustration. Journey time reliability is a problem when drivers get stuck behind a slow moving vehicle and cannot overtake. As section 3.2.53-62 explains, the types of accidents occurring demonstrate the risks drivers take because they are frustrated by lack of overtaking opportunities. 43% of accidents occurred due to vehicles veering onto the opposite side of the carriageway. The 2015 study and associated business survey confirmed that there is a perception that the employment areas in the region are considered to be remote as a result of the low standard of accessibility by road, including the lack of safe overtaking opportunities, which causes delays when there are slow moving vehicles, creating increased journey times. P3 Occasional convoys of Traffic data (see section 3.2 of the IAR) shows a heavy goods vehicles small peak in traffic in the eastbound direction from the ferry ports and which links in with the arrival of ferry traffic. slow moving Speeds along the A40 vary when activity at the Port agricultural vehicles is high, with industrial and commercial vehicles, as contribute to periods of well as tourists using the A40 as a strategic link. platooning and journey Platooning, exacerbated by the mix of traffic time unreliability, which including large agricultural vehicles, causes delays. is exacerbated with limited overtaking Journey time unreliability is worst on Friday PM opportunities. peaks, caused by long distance commuters returning home to the County and weekend visitors arriving. P4 Seasonal spikes in Journey speeds and unreliability of journey times traffic volumes along are a greater problem in summer months when there the A40 especially is an increase in traffic levels caused by tourists. during the summer Traffic data (see section 3.2 of the IAR) shows months leads to slow traffic volumes in August are some 26% higher moving traffic causing than the annual average. journey time This increase in traffic volumes and associated unreliability, which is increase in slow moving vehicles such as caravans exacerbated with limited is known to exacerbate some the journey time overtaking unreliability and safe overtaking problems on the opportunities. A40.
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No. Problem Evidence P5 The community of Vehicles travel through the populated area of Llanddewi Velfrey is Llanddewi Velfrey at speeds of up to 40mph, which severed by the A40, impacts on physical linkages as well as the overall which reduces amenity of the settlement. This causes severance. accessibility, increases Conflict is known to occur in relation to Non- risks of non-motorised Motorised Users (NMUs) crossing the A40 within user accidents and the settlement of Llanddewi Velfrey and also results in noise and air NMUs using the sub-standard footways on sections pollution. of the A40 within the study area. Section 3.4 of the IAR explains that where the road passes through the village there are undesirably high noise levels for outdoor spaces and high levels of indoor noise assuming standard glazing arrangements. Whilst no monitoring of air quality has yet been undertaken in the vicinity of the route, traffic passing through would contribute to air pollution. P6 There are many side Within the 5km section of the Scheme there are road junctions and direct approximately 35 accesses or side roads directly accesses to properties onto the trunk road. This contributes to journey and agricultural fields time unreliability and risk of accidents when traffic off the A40, which joins or leaves the main carriageway. Section contributes to 3.2.53-62 of the IAR suggests how existing operational problems visibility splays at priority junctions along the A40 along the road. and conflicts between vehicles approaching behind those waiting to turn from the main A40 carriageway with substandard design issues may have contributed to fatalities and serious accidents occurring. P7 A mix of traffic types Data at Section 3.2.51 of the IAR shows a traffic using the road, make-up of 74% cars, 18% LGV and 8% HGV. The contributing to journey A40 is also used by slower moving agricultural time unreliability and vehicles as well as seasonal tourist traffic (including driver frustration, risky caravans). This make up contributes to problems manoeuvres and associated with platooning and overtaking. collision incidents. P8 A lack of strategic Data in section 3 of the IAR shows higher than public transport average car ownership and lower than average connectivity in numbers of households without access to a car. Pembrokeshire generally Public transport data illustrates that services in the means there is a study area are generally infrequent and operate dependence on the fairly short hours of service. This, combined with private car for inter- non-competitive journey times when compared car urban connections. based journeys makes public transport an unattractive journey choice.
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4.2.4 In summary, the key issues that drive the need for change on the A40 and in particular the section between Llanddewi Velfrey to Penblewin, comprise a range of actual and perceived problems, which include both transport and wider economic issues: Transport issues a) Limited and inconsistent overtaking opportunities, which leads to journey time unreliability, driver frustration and associated risky manoeuvres with severe collision incidents; b) Platooning when there are convoys of heavy goods vehicles from the ferry ports and slow moving agricultural vehicles accessing the many side roads and farm accesses along the A40 contribute to journey time unreliability when combined with the limited overtaking opportunities and mix of local and HGV traffic; c) The route of the A40 passes through the populated area, creating severance, air and noise pollution problems within the local community at Llanddewi Velfrey; and d) Slow moving traffic during the summer months exacerbates the problems with tourists causing a significant increase in traffic and slow moving vehicles including caravans. Economic issues a) The region has lower than national average productivity levels and was disproportionally impacted by the recession in light of its reliance (compared to the national averages) on tourism, public administration, wholesale and retail (including agriculture), manufacturing and construction industries; b) Unemployment in the region is highest in the main industrial areas of Milford Haven and Pembroke Dock, which have the lowest levels of attainment reflecting the wider socio-economic profiles of these areas; c) The absence of higher education establishments in Pembrokeshire means that prospective students have to leave the County to study; and d) Pembrokeshire is perceived to be remote and that this is deterring inward investment, tourism and the development of the travel-to- work market within the Swansea Bay City Region.
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4.3 Objectives 4.3.1 The objectives for the Scheme have been developed in order to help appraise possible options. 4.3.2 The Scheme objectives as agreed by the Review Group are: O1 To enhance network resilience and improve accessibility along the east-west transport corridor to key employment, community and tourism destinations. O2 To improve prosperity and provide better access to the county town of Haverfordwest, the Haven Enterprise Zone and the West Wales ports at Fishguard, Milford Haven and Pembroke Dock. O3 To reduce community severance and provide health and amenity benefits. O4 To reduce the number and severity of collisions. O5 To promote active travel by cycling, horse riding and walking to provide opportunities for healthy lifestyles. O6 To deliver a scheme that promotes social inclusion and integrates with the local transport network to better connect local communities to key transport hubs. O7 Deliver a project that is sustainable in a globally responsible Wales, taking steps to reduce or offset waste and carbon. O8 Give due consideration to the impact of transport on the environment and provide enhancement when practicable. 4.3.3 The objectives have taken account of particular drivers, issues and opportunities identified through the baseline review of relevant legislation, policy, guidance and the social / cultural, environmental and economic position within the study area and wider region. 4.3.4 The objectives therefore respond to the identified problems, aiming to help address them, as well as respond to the strategic issues identified in national and local policy and programmes e.g. the need to improve connectivity to the Enterprise Zone and City Region. 4.3.5 In developing the objectives, a review was undertaken against the well-being goals as presented within the 2015 Well Being of Future Generations Act.
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4.3.7 This helps ensure that the Scheme objectives align to the wider sustainable development principle of the Welsh Government, and take into account the needs of Wales’ future generations. 4.3.8 As aforementioned, each objective aims to address one or more of the identified problems. 4.3.9 Therefore, if a transport intervention is appraised to perform positively in addressing the objectives it is given that it would overcome the problems identified. 4.3.10 In addition, an option that performs well against the objectives would be expected to align to the Well Being of Future Generations Act well-being goals. 4.3.11 The well-being goals (WFGA 1-7) and Problems (P1-8) are listed in the next section for convenience. These are considered to align to the objectives for the Scheme as follows:
Objective Well-being Goals Problems 1 1; 2; 5; 6 2; 3; 4; 6; 7 2 1; 2 2; 3; 4; 7 3 3; 4; 5 2; 5 4 3 1; 5; 7 5 2; 3; 4; 5 8 6 2; 5 2; 5 7 7 8 8 7 5
4.3.12 This demonstrates the positive interrelationship between them.
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4.3.13 Well-being Goals:
WFGA 1 A prosperous Wales WFGA 5 A Wales of cohesive communities
WFGA 2 A resilient Wales WFGA 6 A Wales of vibrant culture and thriving Welsh Language
WFGA 3 A healthier Wales WFGA 7 A globally responsible Wales
WFGA 4 A more equal Wales
4.3.14 Problems
P1 The road is substandard and P5 The community of Llanddewi where overtaking provision does Velfrey is severed by the A40, exist it is currently not spread which reduces accessibility, along the length of the A40 such increases risks of non-motorised as there are long lengths in each user accidents and results in noise direction with no safe overtaking and air pollution. opportunities.
P2 Limited overtaking opportunities P6 There are many side road lead to poor journey time junctions and direct accesses to reliability and driver frustration. properties and agricultural fields off the A40, which contributes to operational problems along the road.
P3 Convoys of heavy goods vehicles P7 A mix of traffic types using the from the ferry ports and slow road, contributing to journey time moving agricultural vehicles unreliability and driver contribute to periods of frustration, risky manoeuvres and platooning and journey time collision incidents. unreliability, which is exacerbated with limited overtaking opportunities.
P4 Seasonal spikes in traffic P8 A lack of strategic public volumes along the A40 especially transport connectivity in during the summer months leads Pembrokeshire generally means to slow moving traffic causing there is a dependence on the journey time unreliability, which private car for inter-urban is exacerbated with limited connections. overtaking opportunities.
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4.4 Options 4.4.1 The WelTAG Stage 1 study reviewed in detail the previous development work and explained the reasons for sifting a long list of options to a short list, ultimately recommending variations of Highway Option A as the shortlisted option. 4.4.2 WelTAG Stage 2 involves the assessment of three different variations on Highway Option A, based on alternative route alignments and junction strategies. These have been put forward by the Review Group and as appraised in the Design Options Report 37 to help progress towards a preferred option. 4.4.3 The three sub-options are as follows:
Option A1 Description: A five armed roundabout would be provided at the western end of the scheme. There would be no intermediate junction provision, but a new parallel road from Penblewin would be provided to allow local access to Ffynnon and the accesses that would be severed by the new Highway Option. A four armed roundabout would be provided at the eastern end of the scheme, providing access to Llanddewi Velfrey and Bethal Chapel. See Figure 27
Option A2 Description: A five armed roundabout would be provided at the western end of the Scheme. There would be an intermediate staggered T-junction to allow local traffic to join from the north and south, from Ffynnon and Llanddewi Velfrey respectively. A parallel road from Penblewin would also provide local access to Ffynnon and several accesses that would be severed by the new Highway Option. A four armed roundabout would be provided at the eastern end of the scheme, providing access to Llanddewi Velfrey and Bethal Chapel. See Figure 28
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Option A3 Description: A five armed roundabout would be provided at the western end of the Scheme. There would be an intermediate staggered T-junction to allow local traffic to join from the north and south, from Ffynnon and Llanddewi Velfrey respectively. A parallel road from Penblewin would also provide local access to Ffynnon and several accesses that would be severed by the new Highway Option. A staggered Major/Minor priority T-junction would be provided at the eastern end of the scheme, allowing free flow of mainline traffic with access provided to Llanddewi Velfrey and Bethal Chapel. See Figure 29
4.4.4 The three options are further described and assessed against the do minimum option in the sections below. 4.4.5 It should be noted that the development of these options is explained in the Design Options Report, which refers the sub-options A1-3 as ‘Junction Option 1c’, Junction Option 2c’ and ‘Junction Option 3d’ respectively. 4.4.6 The do minimum involves limited intervention reflecting the existing situation, plus the addition of any planned or committed measures as identified in the Pembrokeshire LDP (as was identified and assessed at Stage One). 4.4.7 A preferred option will be taken forward for further appraisal at WelTAG Stage 3 (Full Business Case). The appraisal process is illustrated below:
Figure 26: Options development process
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4.4.8 Each of these options are subject to WelTAG Stage 2 appraisal, with the following sections providing a more detailed description of each option, how it tackles the identified problems, how it meets the objectives, as well as key risks, adverse impacts, constraints and dependencies.
Do Minimum Description 4.4.9 The do minimum option represents the existing situation on the A40 Llanddewi Velfrey to Penblewin with the addition of any planned or committed measures as identified within the Pembrokeshire County Council LDP. 4.4.10 This option would therefore see limited change to the existing section of the A40 with the trunk road continuing to route through the settlement of Llanddewi Velfrey, with a single carriageway in both directions and numerous private and farm access points onto the trunk road (see Section 3.2). How are the problems addressed? 4.4.11 Given the limited intervention as part of the do minimum option, none of the problems identified would be addressed and with planned growth as part of the LDP, some of the problems may be further exacerbated. 4.4.12 The community of Llanddewi Velfrey would continue to be severed by the A40 and there would remain to be numerous side road junctions and private accesses directly onto the trunk road. 4.4.13 The A40 would continue to experience problems associated with journey time reliability and limited overtaking opportunities, problems which are compounded by the variety of traffic on the road, platooning associated with slow moving vehicles and seasonal spikes in overall traffic volumes. Objectives 4.4.14 Overall, the do minimum option would not achieve the identified objectives. With limited change to the current situation and predicted growth in terms of both population and traffic on the A40, the existing problems would continue. 4.4.15 Therefore it is assumed that the do minimum would perform with a neutral scoring against all of the objectives. If traffic growth were to increase above central forecasts, it is likely that there would be a negative result.
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Key Risks 4.4.16 In considering a do minimum option, the following risks have been identified and relate back to the baseline information and context provided in the preceding sections: 1. There is a risk that with minimal intervention the existing problems will continue or be exacerbated through planned growth; 2. There is a risk that the current problems on the A40 would cause a barrier to future growth within the region and in particular the success of the Haven Waterway Enterprise Zone and the Swansea Bay City Region. The route could also impact on the potential of the tourism industry and the success of the ports of Fishguard and Pembroke Dock; and 3. There is a risk that community safety and severance issues associated with the current route of the A40 through Llanddewi Velfrey would restrict the potential of this settlement in performing its role within the Pembrokeshire settlement hierarchy. Adverse Impacts 4.4.17 The following adverse impacts would continue to occur and/or may occur in the future: 1. Severance impacts on the community of Llanddewi Velfrey would continue, posing a health and safety risk to the community; 2. Impacts associated with traffic passing through the community would continue, including noise and air quality impacts; 3. There would continue to be conflict between vehicles and NMU’s, particularly along sections of the A40 where footways are provided but are sub-standard; 4. The impacts associated with the mix of traffic on the road and platooning behind slow moving vehicles would continue; 5. The impacts associated with the current limited overtaking provision would continue, including risky overtaking manoeuvres and therefore increased risk of accidents; and 6. Within this context, whilst the A40 would continue to provide a strategic east west link it would continue to impact on business and leisure journeys which may impact on the success of the Haven Waterway Enterprise Zone and the wider Swansea Bay City Region. 4.4.18 It is considered that such adverse impacts would continue or worsen under the do minimum option with an element of population growth and therefore assumed traffic growth along the A40.
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Constraints and Dependencies 4.4.19 Given the do minimum nature of this option there are not considered to be any constraints to delivery or dependencies upon which the option would be reliant.
Option A1: Roundabouts to west and east, with no intermediate junctions Description 4.4.20 This option reflects the outcome of previous development work and the options developed and consulted on with the local community and key stakeholders. 4.4.21 The option would involve a 2.5km bypass to the north of the village of Llanddewi Velfrey and a further 2.5km of improvement works from the Ffynnon Wood through to the Penblewin roundabout. Both sections of the improvements would comprise offline works with the exception of specific pinch points or where the road needs to cross the existing A40 (such issues are still to be explored in detail). The improvements would re-join the existing trunk road network at the Penblewin roundabout. 4.4.22 A five arm roundabout would be provided at the west of the scheme that provides connectivity between the proposed A40 running east/west and the A478 running north/south. The existing A40 would also tie into the roundabout, providing access to the existing rest area. 4.4.23 There would be no intermediate junction provision, but a parallel road from Penblewin would be provided to allow local access to Ffynnon and accesses that would be severed by the new Highway Option. 4.4.24 A four arm roundabout would be provided at the east of the scheme that provides connectivity between the proposed A40 running east/west and provides access to Llanddewi Velfrey and Bethal Chapel to the north. 4.4.25 The option would provide maximised lengths of a 2+1 carriageway arrangement across the 5km scheme. This would provide increased opportunities for unambiguous overtaking with a view to delivering improvement to journey time, journey time reliability and road safety. Design standards note that a wide single 2+1 carriageway can be a more effective solution than other single carriageway options in promoting journey time reliability on long distance single carriageway roads.
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4.4.26 With the bypass of Llanddewi Velfrey there would be the opportunity to improve connections for NMU’s in the area. This are being considered in parallel with a Non-Motorised User Study, which would inform Stage 3 appraisal.
Option A2: Roundabouts to west and east, with intermediate T-junctions Description 4.4.27 This option would be as per Option A1 but with an intermediate junction. 4.4.28 There would therefore be roundabout junctions both to the west and east of the scheme. 4.4.29 The intermediate junction would be provided utilising a staggered T- junction to allow local traffic to join from the north and south, providing access Ffynnon and Llanddewi Velfrey respectively. The junction would allow all turning movements.
Option A3: Roundabout to west and T-junctions to east, with intermediate T-junctions Description 4.4.30 This option would be as per Option A2 but with a staggered Major/Minor Priority T-junction instead of a roundabout junction to the eastern end, connecting into the existing road network. This arrangement would allow free flow of mainline traffic through the junction and provide transition between the westbound and eastbound overtaking sections of carriageway. The junction would also provide access into Llanddewi Velfrey and access north to Bethal Chapel. 4.4.31 A T-junction when compared to a roundabout would provide a range of benefits and dis-benefits, including: a) Reduced landscape and visual impacts; b) No requirement for lighting, with less light pollution effects; c) Reduced costs; d) Improved operational conditions and associated user carbon for through traffic; e) Variances in air and noise impacts of traffic decelerating and accelerating through a roundabout arrangement; and f) Perceived reduced safety with higher speeds through the junction arrangement.
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Option A1 Overview
Penblewin Roundabout Llanddewi Velfrey Roundabout Option
Figure 27 Option A1
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Option A2 Overview
Penblewin Roundabout Intermediate Staggered T-Junctions Llanddewi Velfrey Roundabout Option
Figure 28 Option A2
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Option A3 Overview
Penblewin Roundabout Intermediate Staggered T-Junction Llanddewi Velfrey Staggered T-Junction Option
Figure 29 Option A3
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How are the Problems addressed? 4.4.32 The problems are outlined in section 4.2 of the IAR whist transport network evidence is provided in section 3.2 of the IAR. The route - Highway Option A 4.4.33 Maximising the lengths of 2+1 carriageway across the 5km route provides the greatest potential to overcome problems associated with the provision of safe overtaking opportunities, which in turn help improve journey time reliability and reduce driver frustration. 4.4.34 The 2+1 configuration within this section of the A40 more generally increases the number of opportunities to overtake safely along the length of the A40 between St Clears and Haverfordwest. Whilst the intervention in itself will not overcome the problems associated with platooning and the mix of traffic types on the A40, the safe overtaking opportunities which will be maximised over the scheme will allow for faster moving traffic to overtake the slower moving vehicles safely. This is also the case with the seasonal spikes in traffic associated with the tourism industry in Pembrokeshire. 4.4.35 The bypass of Llanddewi Velfrey will alleviate current problems associated with severance of the community and reduce conflict between vehicles and NMU’s utilising road side infrastructure along the existing A40. 4.4.36 The offline nature of all options overcomes problems associated with sub-standard sections of the existing trunk road through the provision of a new, high quality road. It also means that the numerous side road junctions and private accesses that are currently straight onto the trunk road would be onto the current A40, providing safer access to properties and wider communities.
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The junction options A1, A2 and A3 4.4.37 Journey times for through traffic would be slightly benefited by Option A3 when compared to Option A1 and A2, with Option A3 providing a staggered T-junction arrangement at the eastern end rather than a roundabout. This would allow free-flow traffic east / west along the A40 whereas a roundabout arrangement would require traffic to slow down. It is acknowledge that with the staggered T-junction, joining traffic from Llanddewi Velfrey would need to stop to give way which may slightly add to journey times when compared with a roundabout. However, as priority on a roundabout would be to traffic on the main A40 from the right, it is not expected to significantly differentiate the options. 4.4.38 There would be safety benefits Options A1, A2 and A3 given the new road would lead to less accesses onto the A40. There would be a perceived safety disadvantage with Option 3 compared to Options 1 and 2, given a T-junction arrangement would require traffic to join the main carriageway from minor roads (e.g. from Llanddewi Velfrey). Priority would be to through traffic which would be travelling at higher speeds when compared to a roundabout junction, where through traffic would need to navigate with reduced speeds (as per Option A1 and A2). 4.4.39 Whilst accident rates are not anticipated to be more significant for either of the options when compared with each other, it is likely that the severity of potential accidents would be greater for Option A3 (higher speed rather than lower speed collisions). 4.4.40 Option A1 without an intermediate junction arrangement would result in less traffic moving north – south between the settlements of Ffynnon and Llanddewi Velfrey. That could lead to slight air and noise benefits to properties in that area but would provide less accessibility benefits, which could have an adverse impact on services currently provided in the local area. 4.4.41 It would also have an impact on traffic (and associated carbon), which would be required to travel further distances east or west (depending on their start or end point) to join the new road given there would not be the opportunity to join an intermediate junction. The diversion required would also impact adversely on buses using that route.
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4.4.42 Options A2 and A3 would provide those accessibility and user benefits in light that there would be an intermediate staggered T- junction, providing direct access from the north and south. 4.4.43 All of the options would provide a parallel access road along the western extent of the route, to provide separate access to those numerous side road junctions and private accesses that are currently straight onto the trunk road. Option A1 would provide a longer length of road, given only Option A2 and A3 would provide an intermediate junction to serve those more central properties and access points. 4.4.44 The options would not overcome problems associated with strategic public transport connectivity in Pembrokeshire although they would all contribute to improvements to journey time reliability of the services currently provided. Options A2 and A3 could provide greater benefits to services wishing to travel north/south and services coming off the main A40 and wanting to re-join further east / west using the intermediate T-junctions. 4.4.45 In addition, the bypass of Llanddewi Velfrey would offer opportunities to contribute to Local Transport Plan Walking and Cycling Strategy through improving access to the countryside from the settlement, creating a number of circular walks and enhancing links into wider networks of PRoW and cycle routes. There would be limited variations in the way NMUs could use the roundabout (Option A1 and A2) or T-junction (Option A3) at the eastern end. 4.4.46 With a roundabout, NMUs would need to cross multiple sections of road of the roundabout arrangement, whilst with a T-junction NMUs would need to cross a greater width of road with faster moving traffic. Although neither crossing would be encouraged as part of any scheme (roundabout or T-junction), an NMU audit and road safety audit at Stage 3 would help better understand any risks.
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How are the Objectives addressed? 4.4.47 The methodology adopted in appraising the significance and scale of identified impacts uses the seven-point scale as set out in section 1.2.6 of this report. However it should be noted that the scoring in this section differs from the appraisal of Highway Option A (on which Options A1, A2 and A3 are based) at WelTAG Stage 1; in order to reflect subtle variations in the likely impacts of the Options A1, A2 and A3 but in order to show clear variation in their performance as subject to this more detailed appraisal at this WelTAG Stage 2. For a high level appraisal of how Highway Option A is expected to perform, please refer to WelTAG Stage 1 reporting. That will be updated at Stage 3 for a preferred option, which will be informed by the appraisal as presented in the section.
O 1 To enhance network resilience and improve accessibility Option along the east-west transport corridor to key employment, A1 community and tourism destinations ++ The route provides the maximum extent of 2+1 carriageway and therefore maximises safe overtaking opportunities within the section of the trunk road which in turn will positively contribute to improved resilience and journey time reliability. As a key east-west route, the route will improve accessibility Option along the A40 to key towns such as Haverfordwest and A2 Carmarthen. This will provide associated benefits for car based +++ journeys as well as accessibility for those using public transport. Options 2 and 3 would provide slightly greater accessibility benefits given there would an intermediate junction serving Llanddewi Velfrey and destinations to the north and south. The offline nature of this route is considered to offer resilience Option in terms of providing a wholly new section of carriageway for A3 the A40 Llanddewi Velfrey to Penblewin. This would all be +++ built to modern standards and maintenance would reflect this. Resilience benefits would be slightly greater with Options A2 and A3, given the opportunity to join the route using an intermediate junction. The potential benefits are maximised given the high dependency on the private car in light of the socio-demographic and geographical context of the region (see section 3.3.8-19).
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O 2 To improve prosperity and provide better access to the Option county town of Haverfordwest, the Haven Enterprise Zone A1 and the West Wales ports at Fishguard, Milford Haven and ++ Pembroke Dock. As a key east-west route, the route will improve accessibility Option A2 along the A40 to key towns such as Haverfordwest and Carmarthen as well as key employment areas. Maximising the +++ extent of 2+1 carriageway will provide the maximum benefit in terms of journey reliability and wider prosperity. Option A3 Options A2 and A3 would provide slightly greater benefits given +++ improved accessibility with an intermediate junction. Journey times by car and public transport are shown in Tables 2, 3, 4 and 5. Economic conditions are presented in section 3.5. O 3 To reduce community severance and provide health and Option amenity benefits A1 The route would provide relief from the existing community +++ severance issued within Llanddewi Velfrey and would deliver associated improvements in terms of traffic related noise and air quality within the settlement. Option Options A2 and A3 would provide slightly greater accessibility A2 benefits to reduce severance given improved accessibility with +++ an intermediate junction. However, Option A1 would do more to reduce air and noise pollution within Llanddewi Velfrey by not facilitating north/south movements across the route in that area.
Option A3 would provide slightly different air and noise impacts Option to Option A2 given a roundabout at the eastern end of the route A3 would require traffic to decelerate and accelerate, when +++ compared to a T-junction arrangement when there would be stop-start conditions. Some vehicles benefit from stop-start technology, which would provide benefits. Option A3 would have less visual impact for local properties at the eastern end of the route (e.g. Bethel Chapel) given the ability to place the T-junction within the existing landscape and new cuttings etc. However, there may be a greater impact on existing woodland. The option A3 would also have approximately £300,000 less construction cost than Option A2 / a roundabout option. Social and Cultural conditions are presented in section 3.3, whilst environmental conditions related to health and amenity (e.g. air quality, noise, landscape and townscape) are presented in section 3.4.
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O 4 To reduce the number and severity of collisions Option A1 Being fully offline and maximising the lengths of 2+1 carriageway means that this route provides great benefit in terms +++ of removing direct accesses onto the trunk road and providing the maximum extent of safe, unambiguous overtaking opportunities, reducing the likelihood of collisions through risky Option manoeuvres. A2 The route also provides a bypass of Llanddewi Velfrey and ++ therefore removes potential conflict between vehicles and NMUs within the village. Potential conflict is removed to a slightly greater extent with Option A1, given no intermediate junctions. Option A3 Whilst accident rates are not anticipated to be more significant for either of the options A1, A2 or A3 when compared with each + other, it is likely that the severity of potential accidents would be greater for Option A3 given a T-junction arrangement at the eastern end could give rise to higher speed rather than lower speed collisions as would be expected with a roundabout arrangement. This should be considered in the context of 10 accidents along the A40between Llanddewi Velfrey and Penblewin between 2011 and 2015. Road safety issues are presented in section 3.2.53-60. O 5 To promote active travel by cycling, horse riding and Option walking to provide opportunities for healthy lifestyles A1 The route would sever a number of PRoW but it is considered ++ that associated impacts will be mitigated through diversions and reinstatements. The parallel access road along the western section of the new road would help maintain local accesses. Option The route also provides the opportunity to improve / enhance A2 walking, cycling and horse riding links from the settlement of ++ Llanddewi Velfrey and would seek to establish a number of circular walking routes from the village (to be identified at Stage 3 with an NMU study likely to then be available). Option With a roundabout at the eastern end (Options A1 and A2), A3 NMUs would need to cross multiple sections of road of the ++ roundabout arrangement, whilst with a T-junction (Option A3) NMUs would need to cross a greater width of road with faster moving traffic. Crossing of the Trunk Road would not be encourage or specifically provided for under either arrangement. Social conditions related to active travel (e.g. travel to work and access to transport) are presented in section 3.3.
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O 6 To deliver a scheme that promotes social inclusion and Option integrates with the local transport network to better connect A1 local communities to key transport hubs ++ Although the option in itself is unlikely to encourage modal shift Option it would provide slight benefits for journeys to key public A2 transport hubs through improvements to journey time reliability. +++ Options A2 and A3 would provide slightly greater benefits Option given improved accessibility and resilience with an intermediate A3 junction arrangement facilitating movements north and south. +++ Transport network conditions are presented in section 3.2. Social and cultural conditions are presented in section 3.3. O 7 To deliver a project which is sustainable in a globally Option responsible Wales, taking steps to reduce or offset waste and A1 carbon + Although the route would not encourage modal shift to more sustainable transport options, it would, through maximising the opportunity to overtaking provide sustainability benefits in Option terms of the overall efficiency of journeys as well as improving A2 access to key employment areas, supporting economic growth ++ and social inclusion. In terms of carbon, Options A2 and A3 would provide slightly greater benefits than Option A1 by reducing the distance travelled by those using the intermediate Option junctions. Option A3 would also provide slightly greater A3 benefits than Options A1 and A2 given a roundabout involves +++ through traffic needing to decelerate and accelerate to navigate the junction at the eastern end when compared to the T-junction (Option 3). An outline of the sustainable development principle is provided in section 4.6
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O 8 Give due consideration to the impact of transport on the Option environment and provide enhancement when practicable A1 Through creating a bypass of Llanddewi Velfrey the route -- would help reduce air and noise pollution to existing communities, but increase levels along the new route. There would be land take required with associated environmental impacts on the landscape, biodiversity, soils etc. which requires further survey and assessment. However, this needs to be balanced against the opportunities for mitigation and Option enhancement and wider scheme benefits. A2 The landscape and visual impact would be slightly greater with -- Options A1 and A2 with a roundabout at the eastern end compared to a T-junction (Option A3) given the ability to place the T-junction within the existing landscape and new cuttings etc. Option A1 would also involve a greater extent of parallel road despite not having intermediate T-junctions, with associated greater land take, soils and potential visual/ecological impacts. Ecological impacts could be worse with Option A3 Option given an area of woodland could be affected. A3 Petrol interceptors would be needed with a roundabout -- arrangement at the eastern end (Options A1 and A2) which would increase risk of pollution when compared to Option A3, although mitigation should address. Air and noise pollution where there are more properties would be best with Options A1 and A3 in light that there would be less traffic around Llanddewi Velfrey without an immediate junction (Option A1), and a T-junction at the eastern end (Option A3) would improve operating conditions (including user carbon) for through traffic when compared to a roundabout arrangement. Environmental conditions are presented in section 3.4.
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4.5 Transport Case 4.5.1 The aim of the Transport Case is to ‘present the narrative for each option in more detail as to how each proposed solution will meet the need identified in the strategic case and the objectives set’. The transport case therefore considers the potential impacts of each option under the headings of social and cultural, environmental and economic. 4.5.2 The assessment of effects are included in the tables below. This IAR supports Stage 2 of the WelTAG process, and the assessment is largely qualitative and based on information and data available at the time of writing. 4.5.3 Technical evidence included in the Design Options Report is complementary and has helped inform this WelTAG Stage 2 appraisal. It should be noted that an Environmental Impact Assessment and more detailed reporting will be available to inform Stage 3 appraisal. 4.5.4 The methodology adopted in appraising the significance and scale of identified impacts uses the seven-point scale as set out in section 1.2.6 of this report. However it should be noted that the scoring in this section differs from the appraisal of Highway Option A (on which Options A1, A2 and A3 are based) at WelTAG Stage 1; in order to reflect subtle variations in the likely impacts of the Options A1, A2 and A3 but in order to show clear variation in their performance as subject to this more detailed appraisal at this WelTAG Stage 2. For a high level appraisal of how Highway Option A is expected to perform, please refer to WelTAG Stage 1 reporting. That will be updated at Stage 3 for a preferred option, which will be informed by the appraisal as presented in the section.
Social and Cultural Considerations 4.5.5 The various social and cultural considerations outlined within the WelTAG guidance have been considered and an appraisal of the four options is presented below. 4.5.6 For reference to further information in relation to the evidence presented, please refer to: a. Transport network conditions in section 3.2; b. Road safety issues in section 3.2.53-60; c. Social and Cultural conditions including those related to active travel (e.g. travel to work and access to transport) and community services and facilities in section 3.3; and d. Economic conditions including employment areas in section 3.5.
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Do Minimum
Do Minimum Impacts Description Scale Physical • Negligible / neutral impact on physical activity. 0 Activity Limited change or investment is likely to lead to or encourage little change in the amount of walking, cycling and other physical exercise undertaken by people within the study area. Journey • Neutral impact on journey quality with limited 0 Quality intervention leading to an ‘as is’ scenario. • At peak times and times of platooning, journey quality would remain to be poor with above average driver stress as a result of operational problems. Accidents • Neutral impact on accidents within the study area as 0 no real change in current circumstances. Security • Limited intervention will lead to a neutral impact on 0 safety with the local community of Llanddewi Velfrey and NMUs using this section of the A40 continuing to experience safety concerns. • Linked to presence of traffic within the settlement and the sub-standard nature of the current NMU provision. Access to • Neutral impact on access to employment with the 0 Employment current situation largely unchanged. Access to • Neutral impact on access to services with the current 0 Services situation largely unchanged.
Affordability • Limited intervention would lead to little or no change 0 to the cost of travel paid by users. • Users will continue to experience time delays which could be attributed a cost. Severance • The A40 will continue to bisect the settlement of - Llanddewi Velfrey. • A housing allocation within the settlement will see a further 12 houses built and the new owners of these properties will experience the severance effects of the road adding to the overall number of people effected. Option and • Limited intervention would not provide alternatives - non-use values for current journeys nor would it change the resilience of the transport system. • Continued growth within the region could actually lead to the system having less resilience moving forward under a do minimum option.
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Do Something
Options A1, A2 and A3 Impacts Description Scale Physical • The route would sever a number of PRoW but it is Option A1 Activity considered that associated impacts will be mitigated ++ through diversions and reinstatements. The parallel access road along the western section of the new road would help maintain local accesses. • The route also provides the opportunity to improve / enhance walking, cycling and horse riding links from Option A2 the settlement of Llanddewi Velfrey and would seek ++ to establish a number of circular walking routes from the village (to be identified at Stage 3 with an NMU study likely to then be available). • With a roundabout at the eastern end (Options 1 and 2), NMUs would need to cross multiple sections of Option A3 road of the roundabout arrangement, whilst with a T- ++ junction (Option A3) NMUs would need to cross a greater width of road with faster moving traffic. Crossing of the trunk road would not be encouraged under either option. • The options could therefore lead to an increase in physical activity within the study area. Journey • The route maximises the extent of 2+1 carriageway Option A1 Quality through offline improvements over a distance of circa +++ 5km. This will provide safe overtaking opportunities for a prolonged stretch and reduce driver stress / Option A2 increase journey quality. +++ • The modern standard of the new road would also Option A3 contribute to increasing journey quality within the study area. +++ Accidents • Maximising the extent of the 2+1 carriageway Option A1 provides the maximum length of safe, unambiguous +++ overtaking opportunities. This will reduce the number of risky manoeuvres on the road and generally contribute to reducing the potential of accidents. • With the bypass of Llanddewi Velfrey taking traffic out of the village centre there will be reduced Option A2 interface between traffic on the A40 and NMUs ++ within the village, thereby creating a safer village environment and reducing the potential of accidents. Potential conflict is removed to a slightly greater
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Options A1, A2 and A3 Impacts Description Scale extent with Option A1, given no intermediate Option A3 junctions. + • Whilst accident rates are not anticipated to be more significant for either of the options A1, A2 or A3 when compared to each other, it is likely that the severity of potential accidents would be greater for Option A3 given a T-junction arrangement at the eastern end could give rise to higher speed rather than lower speed collisions as would be expected with a roundabout arrangement. This should be considered in the context of 10 accidents along the A40 between Llanddewi Velfrey and Penblewin between 2011 and 2015. Security • The option includes the bypass of the settlement of Option A1 Llanddewi Velfrey, removing traffic from the +++ settlement centre. This will increase the feeling of safety within the settlement for the local community and NMU’s. Potential conflict is removed to a slightly greater extent with Option A1, given no intermediate junctions. • The option maximises the length of 2+1 carriageway, Option A2 providing a large section of unambiguous overtaking ++ opportunities, leading to road users feeling safer when overtaking on this stretch of the A40 with reduced risk of dangerous driving or ‘boxing’ crime tactics. • Security may be slightly better with Option A3 in providing a T-junction arrangement at the eastern end Option A3 rather than a roundabout. This is because traffic would need to slow down to navigate the roundabout ++ arrangement, increasing risks of crime. Whilst joining traffic would need to stop to give way, queuing at the T-junction and/or roundabout is not expected given sufficient capacity when taking into account traffic levels now and in the future, which helps limit risks.
Access to • The route would contribute to slight improvements to Option A1 Employment journey time and journey reliability through the + overtaking provision and in general a better standard of road, increasing the resilience of the Llanddewi Option A2 Velfrey to Penblewin section of the A40. ++ • As the key east-west link between Pembrokeshire and the wider Swansea Bay City Region, resilience on the A40 is key to creating a successful economy and Option A3 encouraging investment to key employment sites such ++ as the Haven Waterway Enterprise Zone. • Options A2 and A3 would provide slightly greater benefits given improved accessibility with an intermediate junction.
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Options A1, A2 and A3 Impacts Description Scale Access to • The route would bring improvements to journey times Option A1 Services and journey time reliability on the A40, improving the + resilience of the network and providing better access to services in key settlements such as Narberth and Haverfordwest. Option A2 • Although the option would not directly encourage ++ modal shift onto public transport, it will contribute to improving a key public transport corridor and improve access to key transport hubs such as Haverfordwest Option A3 and Carmarthen. ++ • Options A1 would provide slightly less benefits given reduced accessibility without intermediate junctions.
Affordability • The route would bring limited change to costs paid by Option A1 users of the A40. 0 Option A2 0 Option A3 0 Severance • The route would provide a direct benefit to the Option A1 community of Llanddewi Velfrey through the ++ provision of the bypass. This would reduce the overall volume of traffic passing through the community and potential bring associated air quality and noise Option A2 benefits. +++ • Options A2 and A3 would provide slightly greater accessibility benefits to reduce severance given Option A3 improved accessibility with an intermediate junction. +++
Option and • Through maximising the 2+1 carriageway Option A1 non-use values configuration and bypassing the settlement of ++ Llanddewi Velfrey, the route provides an alternative route which no longer severs the settlement as well as increasing the resilience of the network to cope with Option A2 the variety of traffic, platooning and seasonal peaks. +++ • Resilience benefits would be slightly greater with Options A2 and A3, given the opportunity to join the Option A3 route using an intermediate junction. +++
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Environmental Considerations 4.5.7 In advance of Environmental Impact Assessment at Stage 3, a higher level environmental appraisal has been undertaken for the options by relevant specialists. The results of this appraisal are provided below. For reference to further information in relation to the evidence presented, please refer to: a. Air quality conditions in section 3.4.2-4; b. Noise conditions in section 3.4.5-7; c. Landscape and townscape in section 3.4.8-13; d. Biodiversity in section 3.4.14-19; e. Cultural heritage in section 2.4.20-33; f. Agriculture in section 3.4.34-36; and g. Water environment in section 3.4.37-38. Do Minimum
Do Minimum Impacts Description Scale Noise The do minimum option would lead to no change in the 0 baseline situation as presented in Section 3.4.2. This would mean continued, undesirable effects for those properties within close proximity to the A40. Air Quality There are no significant air quality effects predicted 0 during operation. It is predicted that emissions from road traffic vehicles will improve, therefore it can be expected that air quality near to the current route will improve. There have been predictions about improved air quality in the past that have not materialised. Pollutant concentrations will remain below air quality objective levels. Greenhouse The do minimum option would lead to no change in the 0 gases baseline situation Landscape Online maintenance of the existing trunk road would have 0 no significant impact on landscape character and visual amenity. Townscape N/A Historic Online maintenance of the existing trunk road would have 0 Environment a negligible impact on cultural heritage within the study area.
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Do Minimum Impacts Description Scale Biodiversity The Do Minimum option is unlikely to result in 0 significant ecological impacts, although any existing issues in terms of wildlife crossings, and consequential effects of localised air quality and surface water discharges may remain. It may be possible to resolve these issues through enhancement measures if included within this option. Water There would be no significant effects on the water 0 Environment environment from this option.
Do Something
Options A1, A2 and A3 Impacts Description Scale Noise This option has the potential to give rise to significant Option A1 increases in noise at isolated properties close to the + proposed bypass around the north of Llanddewi Velfrey, however this is expected to affect a very small number of receptors, whilst there would be noise reductions at a larger number of receptors in Llanddewi Velfrey. To the west of Ffynnon Wood, where the Scheme would more Option A2 closely follow the existing route, there may be noise increases or decreases at nearby receptors, dependent on + predicted changes in traffic speed and movement of the carriageway relative to nearby receptors. It is not expected that there would be any change in predicted traffic flows as a result of the route when compared with the do-minimum option. The route would Option A3 be resurfaced with a TSC which may bring about noise + reductions at some receptors sooner than would otherwise happen in the do-minimum situation. Noise to the eastern end of the route could be slightly greater with Options A1 and A2 with a roundabout arrangement giving rise to more vehicles decelerating and accelerating. Vehicles stopping and accelerating with a give way system associated with the T-junction arrangement would have similar effects. Air Quality A40 traffic will no longer pass through Llanddewi Option A1 Velfrey, reducing exposure for residents there. The new + alignment will bring traffic to within 120m of Pentroydn Farm, increasing exposure at this property. There is the Option A2 potential for local air quality to be affected temporarily during construction. +
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Options A1, A2 and A3 Impacts Description Scale Air pollution to the eastern end of the route could be Option A3 slightly greater with Options A1 and A2 with a + roundabout arrangement giving rise to more vehicles decelerating and accelerating. Vehicles stopping, waiting and then accelerating with a give way system associated with the T-junction arrangement would have similar effects. Greenhouse The route of the A40 will be longer and able to carry more Option A1 gases traffic due to the additional lane. This additional traffic --- and increased distance is likely to result in increased GHG. The new road infrastructure will also produce embodied carbon in addition to the operational GHG emissions. Option A2 In terms of carbon, Options A2 and A3 would provide -- slightly greater benefits than Option A1 by reducing the distance travelled by those using the intermediate junctions. That would also increase emissions for both private and public transport vehicles using a longer Option A3 diverted route. -- Option A1 would also have a long length of parallel road to provide for local accesses. Option A3 would also provide slightly greater benefits than Options A1 and A2 given a roundabout involves through traffic needing to decelerate and accelerate to navigate the junction at the eastern end when compared to the T-junction (Option A3). Vehicles stopping, waiting and then accelerating with a give way system associated with the T-junction arrangement would have similar effects unless vehicles benefit from stop-start technology, in which case there would be a benefit with Option A3 when compared to Option A2. A conservative score has been awarded given this would be a longer term benefit once vehicle technology has a higher uptake. Landscape The 2.5 km bypass to the north of Llanddewi Velfrey Option A1 would be located on undulating farmland with a --- northward aspect. The landscape directly affected is considered to be of moderate character and scenic quality, attractive yet typical of rural Pembrokeshire. The north-facing slopes extend the visual influence of transport corridor to the Eastern Cleddau and Afon Taf river valleys, which have been evaluated as having high
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Options A1, A2 and A3 Impacts Description Scale character and scenic qualities. That section of the scheme Option A2 could have significant adverse landscape and visual -- impacts and would require detailed assessment as part of the Environmental Impact Assessment (at Stage 3). To the west of Llanddewi Velfrey the bypass would return towards the existing A40 and use an alignment that is close to the existing, terminating at a new replacement roundabout at Pontblewin. This would result in the loss of existing roadside vegetation on the northern side of the existing A40. This Option A3 is a mixture of grassland, managed hedge, mature - hedgerow and individual trees. A small hill to the north of the A40 would limit the visual influence on the wider landscape from this section of road improvement. Landscape and visual impact would be slightly greater with Options A1 and A2 with a roundabout at the eastern end compared to a T-junction (Option 3) given the ability to place the T-junction within the existing landscape and new cuttings etc, despite there being a potential impact on an area of woodland with Option A3. Further design and survey work is necessary to determine the extent of impact. Option 1 would also involve a greater extent of parallel road despite not having intermediate T-junctions, with associated greater land take, soils and visual/ impacts. Townscape N/A Historic The option would not directly impact on any of the sites Option A1 Environment listed in Table 14. 0 There is a high potential that intrusive works may uncover Option A2 previously-unrecognised archaeological deposits. This 0 potential has not been quantified at this stage, but is unlikely to be adverse. Option A3 0 Biodiversity This option will result in the potential loss and Option A1 fragmentation of habitats resulting from the construction --- and operation of the new offline route. The construction will required the closure of a number of badgers setts and the loss of bat roosts within buildings under the foot print of the option. In the western half of the study area this option will introduce a new road parallel to the existing Option A2 A40. This has the potential to result in increased -- fragmentation of habitat in particular for horseshoe bats associated with nearby Special Areas of Conservation.
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Options A1, A2 and A3 Impacts Description Scale Option A1 would involve a greater extent of parallel road Option A3 to serve local accesses adjacent to the new route, with -- associated greater potential for adverse ecological impacts and wildlife severance effects. Option A3 would sit better in the landscape at the eastern end with a T-junction arrangement when compared to a roundabout but could impact on an area of woodland at the eastern end of the route by virtue of its junction arrangement and associated alignment. Further design and survey work is necessary to determine the extent of impact. Water The new offline route would have direct impacts on the Option A1 Environment Afon Daulan and 2 of its unnamed tributes. The option -- would require these streams to be culverted, where they pass under the proposed route, to the north and north west of Llanddewi Velfrey, An existing culvert to the east of Penblewin would also need to be extended, under the new roadway to the north of the existing road. The option would therefore have a direct detrimental effecting on the catchment geomorphology. Option A2 The route would also impact on groundwater flows where -- cuttings are required. This may potentially impact on springs within close proximity of the route and therefore on downstream watercourses. Based on OS mapping this could include unnamed tributaries of the Afon Daulan, Afon Taf and Longford Brook. The additional impermeable surface created by the highway this would result in increases in surface water Option A3 runoff, and therefore potential flooding to downstream - receptors, unless the surface water is managed appropriately. Petrol interceptors would be needed with a roundabout arrangement at the eastern end (Options A1 and A2) which would increase risk of pollution when compared to Option A3, although mitigation should address.
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Economic Considerations 4.5.8 The options have been considered in relation to economic factors, as outlined within the WelTAG 2017 guidance. A summary for each of the options is included below. For reference to further information in relation to the evidence presented, please refer to: a. Transport network conditions in section 3.2; b. Journey time information in section 3.2.15-17; c. Speed profile information in section 3.61-62; d. Road safety conditions in section 3.2.53-60; and e. Economic conditions including economic performance, industrial structure, economic development and opportunities for growth in section 3.5. Do Minimum
Do Minimum Impacts Description Scale Journey time • In a central traffic growth scenario, the do-minimum 0 changes would not impact on journey times on the network. • In a high traffic growth scenario journey times would be expected to increase. • Traffic modelling at WelTAG Stage 2 aims to provide further information and assist appraisal. Journey time • The do-minimum would not impact on journey time 0 reliability reliability on the network as the identified problems changes associated with delays would continue to be experienced. • Problems would be exacerbated in a high traffic growth scenario. Transport • There would be no impact on transport costs under the 0 costs do-minimum option. Accidents • It would be likely that current accident rates would be 0 maintained, with no intervention to reduce the risk of accidents. • With the high traffic growth scenario, the risk of accidents would be likely to increase, with exacerbated overtaking problems and number of vehicles using the route. Changes in • The do-minimum would not bring benefits to 0 productivity productivity as the identified problems associated with delays would continue to be experienced acting as a barrier to people accessing places of employment and goods reaching markets.
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Do Minimum Impacts Description Scale • Problems would be exacerbated in a high traffic growth scenario. Local • The do-minimum would not bring benefits to the local 0 economy economy as the identified problems associated with delays would continue to be experienced acting as a barrier to economic prosperity. • Key sectors in the local economy (e.g. wholesale / retail, construction, education / health, manufacturing and tourism) are transport intensive and / or rely on transport infrastructure. • Problems would be exacerbated in a high traffic growth scenario. Land • There would be no impact on land. The option would 0 not have any effects on either agricultural land quality or agricultural businesses. Capital costs • There would be no impact on capital costs. 0 Revenue costs • There would be no impact on revenue costs. 0
Do Something
Options A1, A2 and A3 Impacts Description Scale Journey time • Despite a slight increase in the length of route, the Option A1 changes option would offer de-restricted speed limits and + improved overtaking opportunities through maximising the extent of 2+1 carriageway (with associated reduced risk of incident and delay), Option A2 providing slight benefit to journey times. ++ • Options A2 and A3 would provide slightly greater benefits given improved accessibility (with less distance travelled for some users) with an Option A3 intermediate junction. +++ • Option A3 would provide slightly greater journey time benefits for mainline traffic given a T-junction rather than roundabout junction arrangement at the eastern end. The option may slightly reduce journey time for traffic to/from Llanddewi Velfrey who will have to join from the T-junction, however the change is not considered to be significant when compared to Option A2.
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Options A1, A2 and A3 Impacts Description Scale Journey time • The route would provide an alternative between Option A1 reliability Gwyndy Farm and Penblewin roundabout (the ++ changes existing A40) with associated greater network resilience at times of incident and delays. • The route would offer de-restricted speed limits and improved, unambiguous overtaking opportunities through maximising the extent of 2+1 carriageway, improving journey time reliability. Option A2 • Furthermore, the route provides greater highway +++ capacity, which would future proof the route to accommodate traffic volumes in a high growth scenario. • Resilience benefits would be slightly greater with Options A2 and A3, given the opportunity to join the route using an intermediate junction. Option A3 +++ • Queuing at the T-junction (Option A3) and/or roundabout (Options A1 and A2) is not expected at the eastern end of the route given sufficient capacity when taking into account traffic levels now and in the future.
Transport • Despite a slight increase in the length of route, there Option A1 costs would be reduced risk of operational problems. The 0 new route would also provide an improved gradient. Therefore there would be a negligible impact on transport costs. Option A2 • With no intermediate junction with Option A1, + distances travelled may be greater for some users compared to Options A2 and A3. Option A3 would Option A3 also provide some user benefits to through traffic given vehicles would not need to slow down before ++ accelerating through a roundabout arrangement. Accidents • Maximising the extent of the 2+1 carriageway Option A1 provides the maximum length of safe, unambiguous +++ overtaking opportunities. This will reduce the number of risky manoeuvres on the road and generally contribute to reducing the potential of accidents. Option A2 • Option A1 would provide an extra ~150m of ++ overtaking opportunities without the intermediate junction, whilst could improve perceptions of safety with less traffic joining/exiting the carriageway. Option A3 + • Whilst accident rates are not anticipated to be more significant for either of the options A1, A2 or A3 when compared with each other, it is likely that the severity of potential accidents would be greater for Option A3 given a T-junction arrangement at the eastern end could give rise to higher through speeds.
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Options A1, A2 and A3 Impacts Description Scale This should be considered in the context of 10 accidents along the A40 between Llanddewi Velfrey and Penblewin between 2011 and 2015. Changes in • The route would provide a more reliable east-west Option A1 productivity connection, which would improve accessibility + between communities and places of work. Option A2 • As a key east-west route, the route will improve ++ accessibility along the A40 to key towns such as Option A3 Haverfordwest and Carmarthen as well as key ++ employment areas. Maximising the extent of 2+1 carriageway will provide the maximum benefit in terms of journey reliability and wider prosperity. • Options A2 and A3 would provide slightly greater benefits given improved accessibility with an intermediate junction. Local • This option provides a more reliable east-west Option A1 economy connection, which would improve accessibility to + markets and the movement of goods and people. • This option would provide a new and attractive alternative route, forming a key part of the wider highway network serving the local economy and wider regional centres including the Haven Waterway Option A2 EZ and Swansea Bay City Region. ++ • Furthermore, this option provides greater highway capacity, which would future proof the route to accommodate traffic volumes in a high growth scenario with greater economic prosperity. • Option A1 would perform less well by not providing Option A3 an intermediate junction and adversely impacting on +++ local services through severance effects as a result. • Option A3 would perform best by prioritising through traffic with a T-junction arrangement. Land • Given the offline nature of the route it would require Option A1 land take along the 4-5km route. This would largely --- comprise agricultural land, partially effecting the operation of at least six farm businesses. • The section between Ffynnon Wood and Penblewin roundabout is located in close proximity to the Option A2 existing A40, thereby reducing the severance of land -- parcels.
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Options A1, A2 and A3 Impacts Description Scale • Option A1 would involve a greater extent of parallel Option A3 road despite not having intermediate T-junctions, with - associated greater land take. • Options A1 and A2 would involve a greater extent of land and soils to accommodate a roundabout junction arrangement at the eastern end of the route. Capital costs • The capital costs are estimated to be £16m, with Option A1 WEFO funding to be matched by Welsh Government - transport budgets. • Option A1 would involve a greater extent of parallel road despite not having intermediate T-junctions, with Option A2 associated greater land take and construction costs. 0 • Option A3 would be likely provide cost savings (circa £300,000) compared to the other options given the Option A3 reduced earthworks and lighting with a T-junction + arrangement. • Economic appraisal at Stage 3 will provide a more accurate calculation of costs and compare the anticipated user and wider benefits. Revenue costs • 5km of new trunk road would require further Option A1 maintenance with associated revenue costs for Welsh -- Government. • The existing A40 would be detrunked and thus would require ongoing maintenance with associated revenue Option A2 costs for Pembrokeshire County Council. - • Option A1 would involve a greater extent of parallel road despite not having intermediate T-junctions, with associated greater land take and Option A3 construction/maintenance costs. It is expected that - maintenance costs would be handed over given the related local access provision.
4.5.9 Appraisal undertaken at Stage 2 makes it clear that Options A2 and A3 would best address the problems, best achieve the objectives and perform best against the majority of cultural, social and economic appraisal criteria, appreciating that there would be some adverse impacts in particular on the environment. 4.5.10 As explained in section 4.1, stakeholders have expressed strong support for Option A2 for safety and journey time reasons associated with local traffic joining the A40.
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4.5.11 The Welsh Government recognises that Option A2 would be more likely to avoid objections from local residents and politicians in light of their concerns about a T-junction at the eastern end of the scheme. 4.5.12 Furthermore, the Scheme Design Options Report 2017 considers the benefits and dis-benefits of each of a roundabout and T-junction arrangement at the eastern end of the Scheme as follows:
Roundabout Benefits Roundabout Dis-benefits A roundabout is better suited to minor– Requirement to provide lighting increases minor side road traffic movements and whole life cost of the Scheme. agricultural vehicles access farms to the north. It would also better facilitate flows of eastbound traffic from the village to St Clears. Reduction in likelihood of high speed Requirement to provide lighting has collisions due to need for vehicles on the ecological dis-benefits due to effects on mainline having to slow on the approach bats which are in the vicinity. to the roundabout. Opportunity for an at-grade pedestrian Braking at roundabout would increase crossing at the roundabout to facilitate operational carbon emissions. access to/from Bethel Chapel. This would improve connectivity and reduce severance in the village. No Departures from Standard would be There would be buildability issues to be required. mitigated where earthworks would impact with current alignment of A40, thus increasing risk of conflict between construction and live traffic. There would be increased lengths of overtaking lanes provided as the lanes could start and terminate at the roundabout. There would be a positive earthworks balance from a roundabout.
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T-junction Benefits T-junction Dis-benefits A T-junction would present the most Departure from standard required for appropriate junction form based on traffic left/right stagger, which is not compliant flows and TD42 design standards. with DMRB on 2+1 roads. There would be a reduced maintenance No opportunity for pedestrians or cyclists liability due to no provision of lighting (NMUs) to cross the carriageway at the requirements, reducing overall scheme Chapel, increasing the severance effect. cost. No lighting requirement would have Vehicles would travel through the environmental benefits for bats. junction at higher speeds thereby increasing risk of severe accidents. Free flow of traffic would provide journey Increase in earthwork cutting would time benefits, which would also improve potentially result in an earthwork the benefit to cost ratio calculation. imbalance. Reduced need for decelerating and accelerating to navigate roundabout for through traffic movements would provide carbon benefits due to constant mainline speeds. There would be benefits to buildability as junction would largely be constructed offline, thereby reducing conflict between live traffic and construction works.
4.5.13 Despite the WelTAG appraisal showing Option A3 could better address the problems and objectives for the scheme, it is clear that Option A2 offers other benefits (and dis-benefits) as outlined above, in addition to reduced risks to delivery through the statutory process and benefits to public and stakeholder acceptability with a roundabout junction solution at its eastern end.
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4.6 Comparative Performance 4.6.1 The following Appraisal Summary Table provides a comparative analysis of the options considered at Stage 2 of the WelTAG process. Following the table, summary narrative considers the relative performance of the options in meeting the objectives and in relation to key Social and Cultural, Environmental and Economic considerations. Table 17 Appraisal Summary Table – Comparative Analysis
Do Minimum Option A1 – Option A2 – Option A3 – Roundabouts Roundabouts Roundabout to west and to west and to west and T- east, with no east, with junctions to intermediate intermediate east, with junctions T-junctions intermediate T-junctions Social & Cultural Physical 0 ++ ++ ++ Activity Journey 0 +++ +++ +++ Quality Accidents 0 +++ ++ + Security 0 +++ ++ ++ Access to 0 + ++ ++ Employment Access to 0 + ++ ++ Services Affordability 0 0 0 0 Severance - ++ +++ +++ Option and - ++ +++ +++ non-use values Environment Noise 0 + + + Air Quality 0 + + + Greenhouse 0 ------gases Landscape 0 ------Townscape N/A N/A N/A N/A Historic 0 0 0 0 Environment Biodiversity 0 ------Water 0 -- -- - Environment
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Do Minimum Option A1 – Option A2 – Option A3 – Roundabouts Roundabouts Roundabout to west and to west and to west and T- east, with no east, with junctions to intermediate intermediate east, with junctions T-junctions intermediate T-junctions
Economic Journey time 0 + ++ +++ changes Journey time 0 ++ +++ +++ reliability changes Transport costs 0 0 + ++ Accidents 0 +++ ++ + Changes in 0 + ++ ++ productivity Local 0 + ++ +++ economy Land 0 ------Capital costs 0 - 0 + Revenue costs 0 -- - -
Objectives O 1 0 ++ +++ +++ O 2 0 ++ +++ +++ O 3 0 +++ +++ +++ O 4 0 +++ ++ + O 5 0 ++ ++ ++ O 6 0 ++ +++ +++ O 7 0 + ++ +++ O 8 0 ------
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4.6.2 Options A2 and A3 best address most of the objectives, with limited variations including likely safety (Option A2) and carbon (Option A3) benefits when compared with each other. 4.6.3 None of the options would address the environment focused Objective 8 (Give due consideration to the impact of transport on the environment and provide enhancement when practicable), although further survey work, Environmental Impact Assessment and mitigation strategies are anticipated/needed at Stage 3. 4.6.4 The options perform poorly against the environmental criteria, but with Option A3 performing best against the landscape and water environment impacts, with the T-junction arrangement being less prominent within the landscape when compared to the roundabout option. 4.6.5 Options A2 and A3 best address the social and cultural appraisal criteria through best addressing accessibility and reducing severance effects with the inclusion of the intermediate staggered T-junction. This provides greater resilience on the network and access to and from local communities. Option A2 provides the greatest performance against the social and cultural appraisal, scoring better in terms of likely impacts on accidents. 4.6.6 The options perform well against the economic criteria, with Option A3 performing best with the prioritisation of A40 traffic on the eastern side bringing journey time and reliability benefits. 4.6.7 When taking into account the available information at this stage of design and appraisal, engagement with the local MP and local councillors has expressed a preference for a roundabout at the eastern end, mainly for safety reasons. That offers support for Option A1 and A2. 4.6.8 Despite the WelTAG appraisal showing Option A3 could better address the problems and objectives for the scheme, it is clear that Option A2 offers other benefits (and dis-benefits) as outlined in section 4.5.9-13, in addition to reduced risks to delivery through the statutory process and benefits to public and stakeholder acceptability with a roundabout junction solution at its eastern end.
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4.7 Sustainable Development Principle 4.7.1 In accordance with the 2017 WelTAG guidance, the objectives have taken into account the well-being goals as set out in the Well-being of Future Generations (Wales) Act 2015. An assessment of how the preferred option may align to the sustainable development principle, taking into account the well-being goals and ways of working, will be provide at WelTAG Stage 3, when sufficient detailed information is available to inform that assessment. As set out at Figure 1, the well- being goals include: 1. A prosperous Wales 2. A resilient Wales 3. A healthier Wales 4. A more equal Wales 5. A Wales of cohesive communities 6. A Wales of vibrant culture and thriving Welsh Language 7. A globally responsible Wales 4.7.2 At this Stage 2 level of appraisal, it is considered that The do- minimum option (1) would not contribute to any of the well-being goals, because the identified problems would continue. The Highway Options would contribute to most of the well-being goals as follows: • By improving access to the City Region, Enterprise Zone and employment areas including the Ports, the options would help people into employment and sustaining jobs, supporting the local and regional economy. The improvements would help foster conditions for sustainable economic development and employment – effective transport links are highlighted as a key mechanism for economic development. • By improving the lowest standard of the TEN-T network in the UK and by addressing the existing barriers to accessibility, the improvements would help position Wales as an internationally focused, ambitious country engaged and connected to the wider world. • The improvements would help reduce severance and connect communities through sustainable and resilient infrastructure. The improvements would result in a safer strategic route by creating overtaking opportunities and improve safety and quality of life in the village of Llanddewi Velfrey. 4.7.3 In light of the results of the appraisal at Stage 2, the Do Something is likely to contribute towards the well-being goals.
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5 Delivery Case
5.1 Overview 5.1.1 The Delivery Case considers delivery arrangements for the project to include management during the lifetime of the project moving forward. It demonstrates that the project is achievable and outlines the arrangements that have been put in place or will be considered further at the next stage (WelTAG Stage 3).
5.2 Project Plan 5.2.1 The project is being delivered via an Early Contractor Involvement (ECI) design and build contract using the NEC Professional Services and Engineering Construction target cost Contracts. These types of contract have been successfully used on a number of schemes including the A40 Penblewin to Slebech Park, A477 St Clears to Red Roses and A465 Heads of the Valley Dualling, Sections 2 and 3. 5.2.2 The scheme is split into three key stages which cover design, statutory process, construction and aftercare in accordance with the Welsh Government’s Transport Division’s Key Stage Approval Process. The KSA process provides a staged financial approval system to manage the process of projects from inception, through to construction and initial maintenance and complies with the principles of PRINCE2 project management:
Figure 30: Project Timeline
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5.2.3 Key Stage 3 is planned to run from February 2017 until Spring 2018 and involves the development of the outline design and Outline Business Case, initial preparation of a target cost, publication of draft Orders documentation and associated environmental documentation such as the Environmental Statement and preparation of a KS4 form. 5.2.4 Table 18 below identifies the key dates associated with Key Stage 3 programme requirements: Table 18: Outline Key Stage 3 Programme Event Time in weeks after contract award Completion of WelTAG Stage 1 8 Completion of WelTAG Stage 2 18 Submission of Draft Business Case in support 20 of ERDF funding applications Project Initiation Document (PID) 6 Public Information Exhibition 8 Presentation of Initial Outline Design and 20 Options Welsh Government’s response on options 21 Final submission of initial outline design and 23 options Presentation of 1:2500 Preliminary Design 26 Proposals and draft Environmental Master Plans Welsh Government’s response on preliminary 28 design Public information exhibition 30 Presentation of Preliminary Design proposals to 30 Local Authority Submission of Final Draft Orders Line and Side 37 Orders to Welsh Government Submission of Final Draft CPO plans and 37 schedules to Welsh Government Final submission of Preliminary Design 52 Final submission of Business Case in support of 52 ERDF funding applications Welsh Government’s approval of preliminary 55 design Publication of draft Orders (Line and Side 58 Roads) and Statutory Environmental Reports (including the ES, NTS, SIAA and SASICOM (if required) – marks the end of Key Stage 3
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5.2.5 Key Stage 4 is planned to run from Spring 2018 to Spring 2019 and involves completion of statutory processes, including publication of the draft Orders, Orders Exhibitions, dealing with objections, and representations, preparation for and conduct of the Public Inquiry (if required), final agreement of the target cost and preparation of a KS6 form. 5.2.6 Table 19 below identifies the key dates associated with Key Stage 4 programme requirements.
Table 19: Outline Key Stage 4 Programme Event Time in weeks after contract award Start of Key Stage 4 58 Publication of draft CPO 61 Public Orders Exhibition 61 End of Objection/Comment Periods 64 State of Public Inquiry 80 Inspector’s report received 90 Target Cost (Key Stage 6) 92 Start of Key Stage 6 detailed design (if 92 instructed) Review of SASICOM Annex IV (if required) - Minister’s Decision Letter (approx.. 3-4 months 100 after receipt of Inspector’s Report depending on complexity of issues) Confirmation of Orders (approximately 3-4 102 weeks after Minister’s decision) High Court Challenge Period begins 102 End of High Couth Challenge Period 108 Notice to Treat 110 5.2.7 There is no Key Stage 5 in an ECI Contract. 5.2.8 Key Stage 6 : is planned to run from Spring 2019 and involves the detailed design / construction period for all works, plus environmental, landscape and ecological aftercare and management. KS6 also includes Gateway Review No. 3, preparation of the KSA7 and Completion Report. 5.2.9 KS6 will proceed subject to the satisfactory completion of the statutory procedures, the availability of finance and the Minister’s decision as to whether the Orders should be made. 5.2.10 Table 20 below contains the programme requirements for Key Stage 6, including the main submission events and anticipated timing.
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Table 20: Outline Key Stage 6 Programme Event Timing Commence detailed design On WG’s instruction Submission of Key Stage 6 programme 2 weeks after commencement of KS6 Submission of Statutory Authorities’ diversion In accordance with works Carillion’s programme Submission of Construction Quality Plan 4 weeks prior to start on site Submission of Health and Safety Plan 4 weeks prior to start on site CEMP (update of draft CEMP) 4 weeks prior to start on site Contractor’s KS6 Design submission 3 weeks prior to including updated SU Works Report start on site Submission of Stage 2 Road Safety Audit In accordance with the Contractor’s programme following completion of detailed design Licences and Consent applications In accordance with Contractor’s programme Construction start on site To be determined by Contractor Submission of Stage 3 Road Safety Audit 3 weeks (min) prior to road opening Road opening To be arranged Completion of KS6 construction works 104 weeks after Key Stage 6 starting date Health and Safety File (including all ‘as builts’ At time of and manuals etc.) certification of Completion by the Project Manager
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5.3 Governance, organisational structure and roles 5.3.1 The core parties involved in the delivery of the project are: a) Welsh Government (the Employer) – representing the Welsh Ministers. The project is being led by Transport within the Economy, Science and Transport Division, with the Project Director and Project Engineer as the main points of contact b) Arcadis (Employer’s Agent) – acting as the Welsh Government’s representative, providing financial, project management, contract and technical advice (support from Mott Macdonald) throughout the project. c) Carillion (ECI Contractor) – commissioned to develop the outline design, prepare the necessary statutory orders and EIA documentation, publish draft Orders (Key Stage 3), progress the project through the statutory process, including Public Inquiry if required (Key Stage 4) and, if successful, then to undertake the detailed design, construction and aftercare of the project (Key Stage 6). d) Arup / RML (ECI Contractor’s Designers) – employed by Carillion to carry out the preliminary environmental and engineering design for the preferred route, as well as undertake all
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activities necessary for the publication of orders, and to complete detailed design. e) Project Manager: under the NEC ECC Contract (3rd Edition). During Key Stage 6 of the contract the role will be undertaken by Arcadis as delegated by Welsh Government. f) Supervisor under the NEC ECC Contract (3rd Edition). During Key Stage 6 of the contract the role will be undertaken by Carillion as delegated by Welsh Government. 5.3.2 5.3.3 5.3.4 5.3.5 5.3.6 5.3.7 5.3.8 5.3.9 5.3.10 5.3.11 5.3.12 5.3.13 5.3.14 5.3.15 Figure 31 below sets out the organisational structure.
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Figure 31: Organisational Structure
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5.3.16 Each stage of the project is overseen by the Project Board. The Project Board comprises Directors from Arcadis, Carillion and Arup and the Welsh Government’s Deputy Director of Infrastructure Delivery. 5.3.17 The function of the Project Board is to: secure working relationships; provide strategic direction; and align values and goals. The frequency of Project Board meetings at each of the three key stages is set out below.
Key Stage Attendees from Frequency Contractor Key Stage 3 Project Director / 3 meetings Design Director / Project Manager Key Stage 4 Project Director / 2 meetings Design Director / Project Manager Key Stage 6 Project Director / 5 meetings Design Director / Project Manager
Figure 32: Project Board Meetings 5.3.18 WelTAG 2017 specifically requires a Review Group to help steer the appraisal process. A Review Group for the Scheme was established at the outset of the Stage 1 appraisal in order to help ensure that key stakeholders were identified and meet on a regular basis to be involved in any decision making. 5.3.19 The Review Group comprises the Welsh Government and its Employer’s Agent, Pembrokeshire County Council, the appointed Contractor (Carillion) and its Designer (Arup). The Review Group is as outlined in Figure 33.
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Welsh Government
Employer's Carillion Agent A40 Llanddewi Velfrey to Penblewin
Pembrokeshire Arup County Council
Figure 33: Review Group
5.3.20 The Review Group will meet at key milestones in each of the WelTAG Stages in order to consider the content of the WelTAG reports and actions to be taken forward to the next stage of the process. 5.3.21 The Review Group will also play a key role in advising on the methods to be adopted in assessing impacts of the option(s) to be taken forward for subsequent Stages and should make recommendations in relation to any specific additional evidence and/or modelling requirements.
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5.4 Project management and reporting 5.4.1 The project is being managed following the principles of the PRINCE2 project management process combined with a compatible web-based project management system. The three Key Stages (KS3, KS4, and KS6) of the project will form the Stage Boundaries within PRINCE2 and will require Project Board approval. 5.4.2 The project will be led by Transport within the Economy, Science and Transport Division of the Welsh Government as the Employer. The Employer will also include other individuals, Division and Ministerial portfolios within Welsh Government identified by the Project Engineer and Project Director for the delivery of the project. 5.4.3 All interaction with Welsh Government, unless otherwise agreed, will be made through the Project Director or the Project Engineer. 5.4.4 Progress meetings will be held at monthly intervals unless otherwise advised. The detailed arrangements for these progress meetings are outlined in Section 2.1 of the Professional Services Contract for Early Contractor Involvement Design and Build Contract Volume 2 Works Information. The Project Manager will also hold Quarterly Financial Review meetings. 5.4.5 The Project Manager will call a Design Effectiveness Review meeting approximately twelve months after the opening of the scheme to road traffic. Carillion and a representative of the design team will attend the meeting and be responsible, as directed by the Project Manager, for drafting a brief report on the findings of the review, identifying areas where the project has been found capable of improvement in detail design and particularly identifying elements with a high maintenance liability.
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5.5 Risk Management 5.5.1 Carillion will manage risk on the project in accordance with the procedures set out in the latest version of the Value for Money Manual – risk Analysis and Management. 5.5.2 A risk workshop was conducted early in the Key Stage 3 process to review and update the Risk Register. This Risk Register is reviewed and updated as a minimum every 3 months during Key Stages 3 and 4, and every 1 month during Key Stage 6. 5.5.3 The Risk Register will be discussed at each Progress Meeting and include the following: a) A description of key risks to the project delivery / cost; b) The likely effect / cost of each risk (quantified); c) The organisation best placed to remove / manage each risk; d) Target dates for action; and e) Hazards with implications under the CDM Regulations. 5.5.4 At intervals, not exceeding 6 months, the Technical Advisor will carry out a risk identification and assessment exercise and report the results to Welsh Government. Carillion will be responsible for arranging and taking part in a Risk Workshop, including other advisors where appropriate, to identify risks and take these into account in the preparation of cost estimates in a manner to be agreed with Welsh Government.
5.6 Details of legal requirements 5.6.1 The Scheme will conform to all legal requirements. The Scheme will be delivered under the Highways Act 1980, a Line Order will give the powers to the Welsh Government to create a new trunk road. A Side Roads Order gives the Welsh Government the powers to stop up, improve and create, Side Roads, Private Means of Access and Public Rights of Way. Land required for the Scheme will be acquired via the Acquisition of Land Act 1981 via a Compulsory Purchase Order.
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5.6.2 The Design and construction of the scheme will be undertaken with due consideration of the Construction (Design and Management) Regulations 2015, the Equality Act 2010, the Active Travel (Wales) Act 2013, The Well-being and Future Generations (Wales) Act 2015, Wales Act 2017 and Welsh Language Standards (Welsh Ministers, County and County Borough Councils, and National Park Authorities) Regulations 2015. The Scheme will conform to all EU and UK Environmental Legislation.
5.7 Communications and stakeholder engagement plan 5.7.1 A Communications Plan was drafted in May 2017 which identifies how all communications between project team members and external parties will be consistently managed to ensure that the needs of the Welsh Government are met at a national, regional and local level to deliver the A40 Scheme. 5.7.2 The Communications Plan sets out: a) Key communication roles and responsibilities; b) Communication management strategy; c) Public liaison; d) External communications; e) Complaints and enquiries; and f) Communication with the media.
5.8 Benefits realisation plan 5.8.1 Section 7 of Volume 2 – Works Information sets out the monitoring requirements during the 5 years after completion. 5.8.2 This details the requirement to compile a post-opening report to satisfy that the objectives, indicators and conditions set out in the funding offer letter and Business Case have been achieved 38 .
38 See section 6.5 of this report
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5.9 Monitoring and evaluation plan 5.9.1 Environmental: aftercare and management will be carried out for a period of five years following the completion of the works. It will be undertaken in accordance with the agreed Construction Environmental Management Plan Aftercare (CEMPA). 5.9.2 Annual Environmental Performance and Monitoring Report (AEPMR) will be prepared to monitor performance, followed by a Final Environmental Performance and Monitoring Report (FEPMR) at the end of the aftercare period. 5.9.3 Six months before the end of the aftercare period, the CEMPA will be updated into a suitable Handover Environmental Management Plan (HEMP) written in accordance with the requirements of DMRB and associated Procedural Advice and Guidance Notes (PAGs) and IANs. The HEMP will cover the management of all environmental features (both hard and soft environmental measures). 5.9.4 The HEMP will set out the environmental maintenance and management required for the completed project for the next 10-year maintenance period and will be developed in consultation with Welsh Government and their Environmental Representatives of the Managing Agent responsible for the Trunk Road Network. 5.9.5 Safety audits are required at the following stages of Key Stage 6: a) Stage 2 audit: on completion of the detailed design in Key Stage 6 as part of the Key Stage 6 Design Submission; b) Stage 3 audit: immediately prior to occupation or use of any parts of the permanent works, any remedial works so identified shall be completed before opening of the road to public use except where otherwise agreed with Welsh Government; c) Stage 4 (monitoring) audits: at times in Key Stage 6 aftercare period to be agreed, but normally Stage 4A at one year after opening and Stage 4B at three years after opening to monitor the road’s performance in road safety terms. 5.9.6 The Road Safety Audits will also cover an area 500m in radius beyond the termination of the works.
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5.9.7 WelTAG 2017 includes the requirement for a detailed monitoring and evaluation plan to be drawn up in Stage 3. This plan would describe what evidence would be used in the project’s evaluation report and how it will be collected. Evidence is required on the actual inputs used when implementing the scheme and during its on-going operation, what was actually delivered, the impacts experienced, to what extent the intervention met its objectives and how they were achieved. 5.9.8 The above version of WelTAG has only recently been consulted on responses are currently being reviewed before the guidance is finalised. The WelTAG evaluation and monitoring plan will be considered further once the guidance has been agreed.
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6 Financial Case
6.1 Overview 6.1.1 The Financial Case considers the affordability and long term financial viability of the option(s). Consideration is given to both capital and annual revenue requirements.
6.2 Cost profile 6.2.1 The total scheme cost including design, construction, land, VAT and risk was estimated at £47.5m (incl. land & compensation) in 2014. 6.2.2 The anticipated spend profile based on the most recent programme is: • 2014-15 £0.5m • 2015-16 £2.0m • 2016-17 £3.0m
• 2017-18 * £15.5m • Future years £26.5m
* Assumed construction year in 2014 business case work by Welsh Government. 6.2.3 Based on the experience of the previous A40 Penblewin to Slebech Park scheme, it is anticipated that approx. £40m could be spent in Wales, of which about half could be spent in the local area. 6.2.4 The delivery of the new section of trunk road would require a capital investment of some £16m. This new trunk road would also have revenue implications in terms of maintenance which would be the responsibility of the Welsh Governments Network Management team. Some of the revenue cost would be covered by a transfer of spend from the existing trunk road which would be detrunked and ownership / maintenance responsibility passed to Pembrokeshire County Council as the local highway authority. 6.2.5 The option therefore brings revenue implications for Pembrokeshire through increased maintenance costs associated with the detrunked section of carriageway which is approximately 5km in length.
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6.3 Allocation of cost 6.3.1 Capital costs will be funded jointly, with the allocation of funding being ⅓ Welsh Government and ⅔ ERDF. 6.3.2 Regarding maintenance, Carillion will be responsible for maintenance of the Environmental Mitigation for five years post completion. Further detail is set out in Section 7 of Volume 2 – Works Information. The cost will be included in the tender price. 6.3.3 Regarding defects to the highway, Carillion are responsible for rectifying defects within five years after completion, at their own cost if defects are found to be as a fault of design and/or construction. 6.3.4 Welsh Government will fund ongoing maintenance of the road via the South Wales Trunk Road Agent. This will include, but not be limited to, structural inspections, highway resurfacing works, winter maintenance, road lighting maintenance and any repair works required as a result of a road collision. 6.3.5 Pembrokeshire County Council will be responsible for similar maintenance on all highways transferred to their ownership as part of the scheme. The details of this are yet to be confirmed but will be agreed prior to the start of Key Stage 6 and will form part of a detrunking package between Welsh Government and Pembrokeshire County Council.
6.4 Cost assumptions 6.4.1 The total out-turn cost of the project was estimated to be £47.5m in 2014. This includes construction, design, as well as non-recoverable VAT and risk but excludes land costs. 6.4.2 The risk cost includes Optimism bias which is an adjustment factor applied to costs used in the economic assessment to reflect a systematic tendency, identified in past engineering projects, to underestimate costs. 6.4.3 WebTAG recommends that at Stage 1 a 44% uplift is applied, reducing to 15% at Stage 2 39 .
39 https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/625380/TAG_unit_a1.2_cost_estimation_j ul17.pdf
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6.4.4 In terms of inflation, the base date for updating the Initial Target Cost for inflation is agreed as the Key Stage 3 starting date. For the period between the KS3 starting date and the Notice to Proceed to KS6, the initial target cost will be updated using Price Adjustment Formulae Indices (Civil Engineering) 1990 Series, published by the Building Cost Information Service. 6.4.5 The inflation allowance to be include in the KS6 Target Cost will be capped to a maximum value which will be based on the average of the percentage annual change in the weighted indices – as specified in clauses 3.14.3 – 3.14.9 of Volume 2 – Works Information.
6.5 Sources of funding 6.5.1 The scheme is being jointly funded from Welsh Government Infrastructure Delivery Department and the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF) 40 . 6.5.2 WEFO have confirmed that ERDF funding for the scheme is secured, despite ‘Brexit’ and the UK’s withdrawal from the European Union. 6.5.3 The award of the Key Stage 6 construction contract will be subject to acceptance of the Business Case by WEFO and award of the ERDF funding.
6.6 Affordability and risk 6.6.1 The Welsh Government has a proven track record of managing and delivering large and complex infrastructure projects. These include projects which have attracted significant contributions from the ERDF. Welsh Government will be responsible for ensuring that WEFO funding is spent as the grant required. 6.6.2 The executive management arrangements of the Welsh Government backed up by the professional audit and financial scrutiny mechanisms of central government will ensure compliance with programme regulations and the transparency, propriety of investments sanctioned under the project.
40 Managed by the Wales European Funding Office (WEFO)
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7 Commercial Case
7.1 Overview 7.1.1 The Commercial Case considers whether it will prove possible to procure the scheme and then continue with it into the future. The case considers the level and type of involvement from the private sector, as well as potential effects on the on-going viability of the option/scheme.
7.2 Procurement Strategy 7.2.1 The choice of procurement type for the project is based on a number of basic principles applied to achieve best value including: a) Selection of Contractors on the basis of quality and price; b) Fair Allocation of Risk; c) Optimising Quality of Design, buildability and Sustainability; d) Adopting a non-contractual Partnering Approach. 7.2.2 The Contractor responsible for construction has been appointed for the Design Development phase under an Early Contractor Involvement (ECI) form of Contract. Under ECI, the Contractor is appointed under a two-stage Engineering and Construction Contract (ECC) before the final scheme design has been fully developed and priced. 7.2.3 The advantage of this form of contract is that the contractor's team is involved early in the development stage; bring their buildability expertise to influence the design development and to manage costs. As a result, the contractor has a considerable stake and commitment in the engineering and environmental design and can carry this through to the construction phase. They are aware and involved in the design process and the statutory procedures and form an integral part of the team giving commitments to stakeholders such as landowners and environmental groups.
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7.3 Procurement Process 7.3.1 The procurement process is in compliance with European Union Procurement Directives 41 and the corresponding UK Public Contract Regulations 2015. 7.3.2 Given the estimated contract value, an OJEU Prior Information Notice (PIN) was first published in TED (Tenders Electronic Daily – Supplement to the Official Journal of the EU) on 22 December 2015, reference 2015/S 247-448808 42 7.3.3 The scope of works outlined in the PIN included: developing the outline design, preparing the necessary statutory orders and EIA documentation, publishing draft Orders (Key Stage 3), progressing the project through the statutory process including Public Inquiry if required (Key Stage 4) and, if successful, then undertaking detailed design, construction and after-care of the project (Key Stage 6) . 7.3.4 In the PIN, the value of Orders was estimated at around £30,000,000 and the total scheme costs circa £50,000,000 excluding VAT. 7.3.5 An OJEU Contract Notice was published on the Welsh Government’s Sell2Wales 43 website on 25th March 2016, reference 2016/S 061- 102869. The contract value was estimated at £55,000,000 – £65,000,000. The notice states that the ECI Contractor will refine their submitted Target Cost for the construction of the project during the Key Stages, with the Target Cost to be finally agreed before award of the NEC3 Engineering and Construction Contact (ECC) and commencement of construction.
41 Directive 2004/18/EC 42 http://ted.europa.eu/udl?uri=TED:NOTICE:448808-2015:TEXT:EN:HTML 43 Sell2Wales is the procurement portal set up by the Welsh Government
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7.3.6 The procurement strategy followed the OJEU Restricted process as set out in Error! Reference source not found. . This meant that potential idders were first requested to complete and submit a Pre-Qualification Questionnaire (PQQ), by 22 April 2016.
Source: http://www.hacw.nhs.uk/our-services/procurement/ojeu-tenders/ Figure 34: OJEU Process 7.3.7 Those who successfully completed the PQQ were then invited to tender in June 2016, in accordance with the ‘ ECI Design and Build Contract – Volume 0, Instructions for Tenderers ’. These instructions provided guidance to tenderers on the form and assessment of tenders relating to the contract for the design development of the A40 Llanddewi Velfrey to Penblewin improvement project and the provision of assistance with the statutory procedures. Subject to the outcome of the statutory procedures and the performance of the Contractor, the contract also provides a procedure for the Contractor to undertake the detailed design and construction of the works.
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7.3.8 The overall tender period was stated as 10 weeks from issue of tenders with the following intermediate deadlines:
Week Activity Comments
Transport, Cathays Park, Cardiff via Issue of Tender 0 the eTenderWales website (the Documentation Portal) Convened at Arcadis offices, 5 Tender Clinic/s Greyfriars House, Greyfriars Road, Cardiff CF10 3AL Last date for 8 Via the Portal Tender queries 10 Tenders returned. Via the EtenderWales website
7.4 Contract Award 7.4.1 The Contract Notice stated that contract award would be based on the most economically advantageous tender in terms of the criteria stated in the specifications, in the invitation to tender or to negotiate or in the descriptive document . Detailed tender evaluation criteria were set out in the ‘ECI Design and Build Contract – Volume 0, Instructions for Tenderers ’ covering quality and price. 7.4.2 The above document sets out the tender award process, with assessment undertaken by two separate panels: a quality panel and a financial panel. The quality panel was responsible for assessing the quality of the submissions and awarding marks, based on the tender score criteria noted within Section D. The Financial Panel appraised the financial element of the tender independently of the Quality Panel. The scoring of each element was set out within sections E11-E12 of the Instruction for Tenderers. The final tender assessment was based on a weighting of the Quality and Financial submissions in the ratio 50:50 respectively. 7.4.3 The contract was awarded on 3rd February 2017 Carillion, with engineering and environmental design provided by Arup and RML.
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7.4.4 In addition to the above process, Welsh Government also procured the provision of support (Employer's Agent) through a management consultancy works and services contract. An OJEU contract notice for this was published on 6th June 2015, reference 2015/S 108-196566 44 . 7.4.5 The procurement process was an open procedure with an estimated contract value of £1,500,000 excluding VAT. The contract award was based on the most economically advantageous tender in terms of: a) Project team and management (14%) b) Project delivery - Technical (17%) c) Project delivery - Commercial (25%) d) Resources and programme (14%) e) Cost. Weighting (30%) 7.4.6 The contract award decision was made on the 9th October 2015 with three offers having been received and evaluated. Arcadis (and Technical Advisor Mott Macdonald) were awarded the contract of Employer’s Agent for the project, with a total final value of contract of £1,342,461.13, excluding VAT. A contract award notice was published on 6th November 2015, reference 2015/S 215-392974. 7.4.7 Figure 35 below summarises the suppliers appointed to the Employer’s Agent (Client Team) and ECI (Delivery Team) contracts.
Figure 35: Suppliers A40 Llanddewi Velfrey to Penblewin improvement project
44 http://ted.europa.eu/udl?uri=TED:NOTICE:196566-2015:TEXT:EN:HTML
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7.5 Contract length 7.5.1 Within the Contract Notice, the duration of the ECI contract is estimated as a start date of 1st August 2016 with completion by 2 nd June 2025. However, the contract is structured around key stages, relating to Welsh Government’s Transport Division’s linear Key Stage Approval process which is used to obtain approval for projects through all stages of design, construction and aftercare. 7.5.2 The key dates associated with each of the Key Stages are outlined in the ECI Design and Build Contract Volume 2 Works Information as follows: a) Key Stage 3 (Table 4.1, pp.51-52): Weeks 1-58 b) Key Stage 4 (Table 5.1, pp. 87-88): Weeks 58 - 110 c) Key Stage 6 (Table 6.1, p.101): commences on Welsh Government’s instruction, with completion of KS6 construction works estimated 104 weeks after KS6 start date.
7.6 Specification of required outputs 7.6.1 The specification of outputs in included in detail in the ECI Design and Build Contract Volume 2 Works Information . This is done according to key stage:
a) Key Stage 3 deliverables are listed in section 4.2, pp.52-54. Further detail is provided in the subsequent sections of Chapter 4: Requirements for Key Stage 3 ;
b) Key Stage 4 deliverables are listed in section 5.1.5 – 5.1.6. Further detail is provided in the subsequent sections of Chapter 5: Requirements for Key Stage 4;
c) Key Stage 6 deliverables are listed in section 6.3.2. Further detailed is provided in the subsequent sections of Chapter 6: Requirements for Key Stage 6. 7.6.2 Key Stage 6 detailed design will be based upon Key Stage 3 and 4 design submissions. The Key Stage 6 Detailed Design submission will be sufficiently detailed to demonstrate compliance with the relevant codes and standards to enable the works to be constructed in accordance with the contract requirements and specification.
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7.7 Allocation of risk 7.7.1 The allocation of risk is covered in the Risk Register (2 nd August 2016). Allocation of risk is also specified in the PSC and ECC contracts. Allocation of risk for Key Stage 3 is covered in the Professional Services Contract (PSC) for Early Contractor Involvement (ECI) Design and Build Contract Volume 1 at Volume 1e – clause Z.6 and Volume 1f – clause Z.6 for Key Stage 4. The allocation of Key Stage 6 risk is covered by clause Z.9 of the Engineering and Construction Contract (ECC) for Early Contractor Involvement (ECI) Design and Build Contract Volume 1h .
7.8 Contractual agreements 7.8.1 Contractual arrangements are set out for each of the three Key Stages. The PSC covers Key Stage 3 (Volume 1e) and Key Stage 4 (Volume 1f), while the ECC covers Key Stage 6 (Volume 1h). 7.8.2 For Key Stage 3, the conditions of contract are the core clauses and the clauses for main Option C (Target Contract), dispute resolution Option W2 and secondary Options X1, X2, X4, X9, X10, X11, X18, Y(UK)2, Y(UK)3 and Z (of the Employers) of the NEC3 Professional Services Contract April 2013. 7.8.3 For Key Stage 4, the conditions of contract are the core clauses and the clauses for main Option E (Time Based Contract), dispute resolution Option W2 and secondary Options X1, X2, X4, X9, X10, X11, X18, Y(UK)2, Y(UK)3 and Z (of the Employers) of the NEC3 Professional Services Contract April 2013. 7.8.4 For Key Stage 6, the conditions of contract are the core clauses and the clauses for main Option C (Target contract and activity schedule), dispute resolution Option W2 and secondary Options X2, X4, X5, X7, X15, X16, X18, Y(UK)1, Y(UK)2, Y(UK)3 all as amended or supplemented by Option Z of the NEC3 Engineering and Construction Contract April 2013 7.8.5 Payment processes are outlined in Volumes 1e, 1f and 1h of the above PSC and ECC documents for Key Stages 3, 4 and 6 respectively.
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7.8.6 For Key Stage 3, the payment process is the PSC Main Option C (Target Contract), amended slightly in accordance with Volume 1e Clause Z.5: 7.8.7 For Key Stage 4, the payment process is the PSC Main Option E (Time Based Contract), amended slightly in accordance with Volume 1f Clause Z.5. 7.8.8 For Key Stage 6, the payment process is the ECC Main Option C (Target contract and activity schedule), amended slightly in accordance with Volume 1h Clause Z.7. 7.8.9 A pain / gain mechanism is in place for both KS3 and KS6, with share ranges identified in Volume 1e and 1h respectively. Any over-spend or under-spend is thus shared between the Employer and Contractor in accordance with these share ranges.
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8 Recommendations
8.1 Preferred Option 8.1.1 WelTAG 2017 clarifies that a preferred option should be taken forward to WelTAG Stage 3 appraisal. 8.1.2 In light of the appraisal undertaken, it is clear that Options A2 and A3 best address the problems, best achieve the objectives and performs best against the majority of cultural, social and economic appraisal criteria, appreciating that there would be some adverse impacts in particular on the environment. 8.1.3 Taking into account the information available, stakeholders have expressed strong support for Option A2 for safety and journey time reasons associated with local traffic joining the A40. 8.1.4 The Welsh Government recognises that Option A2 would be more likely to avoid objections from local residents and politicians in light of their concerns about a T-junction at the eastern end of the scheme. 8.1.5 Despite the WelTAG appraisal showing Option A3 could better address the problems and objectives for the scheme, it is clear that Option A2 offers other benefits including safety, non-motorised user, design and earthworks benefits. These are in addition to reduced risks to delivery through the statutory process and benefits to public and stakeholder acceptability with a roundabout junction solution at its eastern end. 8.1.6 Given the identified need for the Scheme, and taking into account the information presented within the Stage 1 and 2 Reports, the Welsh Government and its Review Group has taken the strategic decision to progress [Highway Option A] Option A2 for further appraisal. 8.1.7 WelTAG Stage 3 should be undertaken to provide a full business case of a new offline route between Llanddewi Velfrey to Penblewin with a roundabout connection to the west and east, in addition to an intermediate T-junction, to connect into the existing road network.
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8.2 Stage 3 WelTAG 8.2.1 At the next stage of the WelTAG process, a number of areas of the appraisal will require updated in order to reflect new information and the Stage of the process. In particular, the Stage 3 Reports will seek to provide further detail on the following: 1. Traffic forecast modelling outputs; 2. Economic appraisal / wider economic impact assessment results; 3. Environmental Impact Assessment (and survey) results; 4. Non-Motorised User Study information; 5. Further details and information around the Transport Case, Delivery, Financial and Commercial Cases.
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